Fantasy Football Today - How to Build a Winning Fantasy Team (03/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 8, 2023

JOIN OUR BRACKET CHALLENGE! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2hazdeobtgy4a====?pool-join-key=3nwmh3dy803sd203tc593rx2jbex5wvt&invited-by=ivxhi4tzhiytenztgqzdombu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF23_lk_cbssports_cbb_bpm_copySetupInvite We dissect the anatomy of winning Fantasy Football teams for 2022, but not before Heath gives his thoughts on yesterday's NFL headlines. Did the Giants make a mistake with Daniel Jones? What's next for Lamar Jackson? ... As we look at some winning Fantasy teams from 2022, what are some general conclusions that we reached (10:50)? How often should you aim for upside when you draft (17:40)? We also spend a lot of time talking about mid-round picks and in-season trades to make (27:30) ... More news and notes (35:55) as we look at the Rams, Chiefs, Dolphins and more ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Coming up on today's show, how to build a winning fantasy team. We looked at some of the best fantasy teams from our leagues in 2022, and we found the one thing that they all have in common. That is a great tease, but it is extremely inaccurate. I doubt we found the one thing that they all have in common, but we'll do our very best. We also have more NFL news.

We have your emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com, and of course, I'm not going to try to start anything right now. I'm just going to state a fact. Heath hates Daniel Jones, doesn't like Daniel Jones at all. Not one iota.

And there we go. That sums up our show today. No, what I don't like is because when people who are very smart and are in positions of power in the league that I kind of cover fantasy football. So, you know what I mean? Yeah. Have make decisions or have opinions that that befuddle, that I just cannot understand why anyone would ever want to do that. In this case, that would be?

That would be both the Giants giving $82 million guaranteed to Daniel Jones. What should they have done? Well, I would try to go get a really good quarterback in some way, whether it's through the draft or through free agency or flying to California to see Aaron Rodgers or offering a guaranteed contract to Lamar Jackson or getting a top five pick and drafting one. Or you could do it with a top 10 pick. My

homes go 11th. But I would be attempting to get a quarterback that I thought would allow me to compete within my division. Absolutely. But it's easier said than done. And what happens if Aaron Rogers isn't available to you or that Lamar Jackson, you don't want to pay him. You don't want to make him the highest paid quarterback in the league. And what happens if you can't move up to get one of the four quarterbacks in this draft and you're stuck picking from, let's say Garoppolo doesn't even want to sign because he doesn't want to play in the NFC East. You're stuck from Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston,

maybe a trade for Mitchell Trubisky. Yeah. I think looking at the numbers, I think you could go get all those guys and probably save $25 million. Yes, but you will also go 7-10, and your job as the head coach will be in peril by 2025. They went 9-7 last year. Yep.

9-6-1. Wasn't it 9-7-1? No, 9-7-1. Sorry, 9-7 last year. Yep. 9-6-1. Wasn't it 9-7-1? No, 9-7-1. Sorry, 9-7-1. We play 17 games in the NFL now. Don't count Week 18. But they played the Eagles and the Cowboys five times last year.

0-5, lost by a combined 78 points. And the closest game they played against those two teams was the game Daniel Jones didn't play. Yeah, but that's not acting like Davis Webb is better than Daniel Jones. No, I'm just saying I don't think Daniel Jones, I don't think they can catch the Cowboys or the Eagles in the next three years unless Dak or Jalen Hurts gets hurt. And so I don't know why you would give $82 million to a quarterback

who can't reasonably finish better than third in your division. Okay, so I don't think you're way off base in saying that the Giants shouldn't have paid Daniel Jones. I think it's a pretty good conversation to have, and I've watched probably 80% to, 80 to 100 percent of Daniel somewhere in there in that range of Daniel Jones's throws for four years. I have no idea if he's good. I still don't. A year ago, I thought there's no chance he's going to be a good quarterback. But last year was very encouraging. 2022 was encouraging with still pretty lousy weapons.

So I think that he's got more potential than you are giving him credit for. But I don't know that to be true. I mostly disagree with the premise that they can't catch the Eagles or the Cowboys in the next three years. Football is so unpredictable, especially the Cowboys. I could see the Cowboys going south and I could see the Giants keep getting better, especially on defense. So I don't agree with that premise. I don't know that Daniel Jones would necessarily be the reason for it, but I do think that they – I can't tell you what the standings are going to look like in two years,

especially in a division that hasn't been won by the same team two years in a row in 20 years. That part of it is very weird. I've brought this up before and kind of as a troll, but I do think the worst thing that happened to Matt Nagy was that they had unsustainable success in year one. And it set a bar too high. He took over a team that hadn't had a winning season in six years, hadn't made the playoffs in eight years.

They won 12 games. We spent the whole next offseason saying, don't draft the Bears defense too high because they were really, really fortunate to be that good. And then they were just 500 for the next two years. And I think the Giants kind of, that's probably the most likely scenario the next couple of years. They're a 500 team.

And that's going to be bad for everybody involved. You have to wait and see what they do at wide receiver. They could end up getting somebody good in the draft. I don't know if we can get better than good in the draft. Maybe they're the team that makes a big play for DeAndre Hopkins. But if they surround Jones with some more talent, I think he's got a shot to have better numbers, and that might make a difference of one or two wins.

Their defense is going in the right direction. Their run game is great. Their offensive line is good. Coaching is smart. It's a quarterback who's played more games than has touchdowns thrown in the NFL. And giving him $40 million a year, that definitely makes me feel a little queasy. But I honestly if they had a better alternative, Heath, they would

have taken it. They didn't have one. Well, they could have traded up and drafted a quarterback this year. Maybe. Lamar Jackson was not an option, though. You couldn't make Lamar an option. You had to make a decision on Jones. You had to franchise one way or another, Jones had to be on the team, or

you just had to let him walk. I don't think you wanted to do that. I mean, you could have, but I think that the Giants were much, it's exactly what you're saying with the Bears. They were much better than anyone thought they were going to be. They took themselves out of the running in a very

good quarterback class. And I would also say the record was better than they actually were. Yeah, probably. But they beat the Ravens. They beat the Titans. They beat the Jaguars. They beat the Packers. They beat the Commanders.

And those were teams that were solid to good, you know. So I think the Giants were probably better than you think they were. I don't think they were a great team. They beat the Vikings, you know. They weren't bad. But they't think they were a great team. They beat the Vikings, you know, so they weren't bad. But they may have overachieved, for sure. I'm glad we're talking about the Giants. We never talk about them.

But for fantasy perspective, I think it's an increase to Daniel Jones' dynasty value, because he's likely going to get to start for two more years. And that's valuable in super flex leagues. Does he buy low in that regard? Oh, I don't. There seems to be so much enthusiasm about Daniel Jones and getting better. And that's the thing.

I don't know how much wide receivers help. That entire offensive success was built on him running. On who running? Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. It was a run-first offense. Daniel Jones had a great year running the football. I don't know if they're good if they choose to throw more. I would imagine they're going to try and do more through the air if they can.

They did. They absolutely did. They became a pass-first offense later in the year. They became a three-receiver team and threw the ball a lot more later in the year. They were also losing more later in the year. But formation-wise, it's been outlined by Schneier a lot. And this is important for fantasy.

The Giants, I think, want to throw the ball. I think that is in Brian Dable's nature. And they started doing that later in the year. And I would be way more interested in Daniel Jones next year in redraft if I thought the plan was he runs the ball 120 times again and not he throws it more. Well, in his last eight games, he averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game, which is not a ton. But in his first eight games, he averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game, which is not a ton. But in his first eight games,

he averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game. And the rushing numbers were more or less the same. You're including the playoffs? No, I'm not. The playoffs would boost it even more, I think. But yeah, so last eight games of the year, the Giants threw the ball four more times per game. And Daniel Jones's rushing numbers,

he averaged one fewer carry per game. And, you know, basically two fewer rushing yards per game. So, that was more encouraging. Of course, they were losing more. They threw the ball 11 more times per game in losses than wins. So, if you think they're going to take a step back next year, that would be good, I suppose,

for the passing game. Okay. Well, for the passing attempts. Not for Jones. In those last. Well, the passing attempts. Not for Jones. In those last eight games, he was below 200 yards passing in five of eight games. So it wasn't good for the passing game. Yeah, but more attempts is better.

Like, you know, give him more. Okay. Okay. More to talk about today, including our main topic, the anatomy of a winning team. But before we do that, brackets are back and you can get into the madness today

on the CBS Sports app. You can run men's and women's pools with friends, enter our bracket challenges for the chance to win a new car and trips to the 2024 Final Four. Play today on the CBS Sports app or visit cbssports.com slash play to sign up.

No purchase necessary. See terms and rules for details. So yeah, run your bracket challenge on CBS Sports. It's awesome. It's the best place to run it. And be in our bracket challenge. Compete against all of us. We're all going to be filling out brackets.

If you were in last year's, you're already automatically in this year's. If not, there's a link in the episode description wherever you're listening or if you're watching on YouTube. You can always do that, by the way, youtube.com slash fantasy football today, live and on demand. Click that link, join our bracket challenge. I'll be tweeting about it next week or maybe later this week, and go Canes. So anatomy of a winning team. Yeah, I thought let's go look back and see if we could find anything that the best teams in our leagues had in common. I didn't look at any of the Superflex leagues. I didn't look at the 14-team league, the podcast league team.

I just tried to focus mostly on 12-team leagues, two and three receiver leagues. Did anybody find any big headline here, any major takeaway, any theme from from this exercise have good players on your fantasy team yeah i found that too yeah there was very little connection between um when i looked more at jamie's article on win percentage there was a very little connection between 2021 and 2022 in terms of even the types of players on that win percentage list. And so I do not know how much 2023 is going to look like 2022. And I think that comes down to the quarterback, Seath, because in 2022, the top three players in win percentage in terms of these guys were on teams that won fantasy championships,

Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. percentage in terms of these guys were on teams that won fantasy championships mahomes jalen hertz and joe burrow uh in 2021 it was cup justin jackson you know sometimes you get those weird guys who had huge playoff performances uh fantasy playoff cup justin jackson jonathan taylor debo samuel so um you know i think people are going to be wondering, do I spend those early round picks on quarterback because it's going to be like 2022? Or do I, you know, take a more take a approach like I've done in the past and wait. But we talk about that all the time. I don't know. But I think that was the difference. Right. I mean, the quarterbacks weren't really on the winning percentage list. The leader board last year, Heath and or 2021. sorry. In 2022, they were the top three players,

Mahomes, Hurtsboro. Yeah, and what we saw in 2022 was a decrease in scoring and a decrease in reliable top 12 quarterbacks, but not really a decrease in scoring from those top three guys you mentioned. And so they were more valuable because the gap between them and other quarterbacks was larger. I've talked about this a lot.

I think that Mahomes and Hertz and Allen should probably go close to that 2-3 turn. Their ADP is going to be in the first or second round, regardless of what we say. I think that's probably closer to what should happen than some expert drafts where they go in the fourth or fifth round. You know, one thing, Dave, I noticed is, oh, I'm starting to think as a producer, should we spend more time on mid-round picks?

Because I do feel like a lot of the best teams that I looked at in our leagues just crushed the mid-round picks whether it was one of those quarterbacks maybe more like Jalen Hurts whether it was Jalen Hurts but a lot of them Amandra St. Brown, Devontae Smith who really didn't pay off until Dallas Goddard got hurt but he certainly paid off after that um you know the the mid-round picks, because a lot of great teams, like you had a team, Dave. You were second best in our FFT league. And your first two picks were Derek Henry and Tyree Kill.

No problem there. But your next three picks were Mike Evans, Deontay Johnson, Brees Hall. And that's not, you know, you didn't win the league because of that. But then you went Jalen Hurts after that, Dalton Schultz, Devin Singletary, Ken Walker.

You know, the best teams, I feel like they get one or two or maybe more of those mid-round breakouts. So I wanted to bring that up. So the first thing I would say is if we knew that in round seven, eight, and maybe even into round nine, there would still be starters at a position other than tight end and quarterback, I guess that means running back and wide receiver, that we'd feel comfortable having in our lineup week one right away, no problem,

i.e. those positions are deep. Would that make you more comfortable reaching for one of the stud quarterbacks early? And the answer to my question on that would be, yeah, if running back is deep and his receiver is as deep as I think it's going to be, I don't know if running back is going to be that deep. Then I might consider taking a quarterback in round two. And I almost never do that in a one quarterback league. You know, you just outlined a draft where I took Jalen Hurts in round six.

That's good times right there. Yeah. But that's part of the equation is, okay, if I spend the early draft capital on a quarterback, am I going to be able to recoup a player for my lineup

a little bit later on? And so in our draft prep, we should go and highlight the players in round seven, eight, nine, who we'd say, okay, I wouldn't mind starting this guy. If it ends up turning out that this guy's available in those rounds. And if I feel like he'll reliably be in those rounds and I shouldn't say he, it should be

they, there should be a bunch of them. And you can take that quarterback in round two, because a lot of people they'll take the quarterback in round one and round two. And they, they're not thinking about the rest of their draft. They're just thinking, okay, I got quarterback taken care of. I got a stud. That guy's going to give me 25 to 30 points a week, and I can figure out the rest of my team a little bit later on. And it's not necessarily the wrong way to think, but you'd want to be a little bit more prepared for the rest of that draft. And it brings me to a couple of other points,

but I've always had the theory of even if you nail one pick after round seven, you're really helping your team. But when you can nail multiple picks after round seven, then it kind of feels like it doesn't matter what you do. You're just going to have a stacked team, and you're going to make the playoffs, and you're going to have a chance to compete for that championship in week 17. Hopefully, like me, you don't get unlucky, and you lose. Hopefully, you win.

That's just one part of the equation. One thing that I would want to talk about is that mid-round pick and that mid-round value. Yes, that's something that we should definitely focus on once we get past the NFL draft. That's really where we should be because most people know what to do in the early rounds. Right. And I think one of the best mid-round picks was Amonra St. Brown.

I think we were surprised by how good of a year he had. What did we miss there? I didn't draft any Jalen Waddell, I don't think. He was a guy who showed up in the top 12 among wide receivers and win percentage. He showed up on a lot of the teams I looked at this morning, the ones who were first or second in my leagues. My thought was, well, with Tyreek Hill there, uncertain about Tua, I don't see how Jalen Waddell is really going to break out.

I clearly underestimated him. I think it's silly looking back at it. I don't know if it's silly, but in that league where, Dave, you did really well. Let's also say, even the best teams, a lot of them, you're going to have some bad draft picks. You go look at teams, what they drafted and what their lineup looks like in Week 17.

It could be maybe two or three players. Who knows from who they drafted. You took Devin Singletary one round ahead of Ken Walker. And if we just go back and think about that, maybe we should never do something like that. Maybe we should never take a solid, maybe RB2 with limited upside over a guy who, and Ken Walker, you may have just dropped him

if Rashad Penny never got hurt, but we always knew there was some league winning potential there. So perhaps we should be shooting for the moon, not with every one of our picks, but at least have a couple of them where, okay, this could be total boom or bust, but it could be Tony Pollard. It could be Ken Walker and not waste that pick on a Devin Singletary. I shouldn't say waste, not spend that pick on a Devin Singletary type. I don't know how often I started Devin Singletary and was happy about it in that league. I would imagine it was pretty rare. He only had four weeks over the course of the year with more than 15 PPR points.

So I guess when I drafted him, I thought to myself, okay, he's the prototypical number three fantasy running back that might be able to be a number two. But I also, I drafted Ken Walker in a bunch of leagues and I think you guys remember how excited I was about him when, when we were at this time last year and I had done my evaluation of him and I just, I was over the moon for him. I thought he was great. And then he went to Seattle, which was such a perfect fit for him. And I knew I wanted to get him on a bunch of my teams.

I also felt like there was a – and we talk about this all the time. Jamie mentions it every August on Fantasy Football Today, that there's always a market dip for some players because of bad news. Remember what happened two years ago to Jamar Chase when he was dropping passes in preseason games and he didn't interview and he demurred about how was the lines on the ball or something like that. And man, did everybody run away from Jamar Chase. But if you did the homework on Jamar Chase,

you knew that in college he was a dynamite player. And if all you do in a fantasy draft is bet on talent, and you know that the opportunity will come along with it anyway, because Jamar Chase wasn't about to ride the bench in Cincinnati as being a top five pick for them, you take advantage of that dip. I did that in a ton of leagues last year year or two years ago, and it was successful. There were two players that I did that with in 2022 drafts. One was Tyreek Hill because everybody thought, well, it's a downgrading quarterback.

He's going to Tua. There's no way he's going to be as good. And I remember saying on our show that he was going to get a ton of targets. That offense was going to be a bunch of short passes. He was going to get some deep targets along the way. It's exactly what happened. He was a target hog. He was great.

I had him in more than half of my leagues. I played in 16 leagues. I made the playoffs in 11 of them. Having Tyreek Hill and hoarding him in as many leagues as I could was part of the secret to my success. And I took him in round two in our league, and that was a late round two pick. But I was getting him in round three in other leagues. Same thing happened with Kenneth Walker.

Well, he didn't have a great preseason, and Rashad Penny's there. And how long are we going to have to wait for Rashad Penny to get hurt? And I was willing to be patient, which was the lesson learned. Remember we talked about that maybe three or four weeks ago. Maybe I learned that lesson last year, and I can emphasize it again this year. Betting on that talent, especially with a ninth-round pick on Kenneth Walker, I had him in a bunch of leagues. And I think that that's something we're going to have a hard time

identifying those players now. It's March. But by the time we get to late July and August, we're going to have some players that have a dip in ADP because of bad news happening in July and August. But just because there's bad news in July and August doesn't mean they're going to turn around and be good news for our fantasy teams in October, November,

December. You have to take advantage of those guys. It's been a huge part of my success in fantasy football. All right, November, December. You have to take advantage of those guys. It's been a huge part of my success in fantasy football. All right, Heath, I want to get your thoughts on that after a quick break on fantasy football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage.

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Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals, be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. All right, we're back. We're talking about talent. A name that comes to mind right now is Christian Watson. Once Aaron Rodgers gets traded, if that does in fact happen,

I feel like there'll be a little bit of a dip. I think he's very talented. But Heath, what do you think about this? You know, maybe just saying, all right, you know what? Jalen Waddell was an elite prospect. He was taken ahead of Devontae Smith. And what was he, the sixth pick? I forget. A couple years ago, maybe we shouldn't be downgrading him this much. Or I don't know. The whole concept of let's just focus on who the best players are maybe.

And maybe that's how we get a winning team. Yeah, I mean, I don't know that there's necessarily a consensus on those guys, who the best players are before they've done it. But I do think that in the mid to late rounds, betting on upside is better than betting on floor. And so I think that's now it, like there's lots of guys with upside and no floor who get drafted in round 7, 8, 9, 10 who end up giving you absolutely nothing.

Yeah. So I don't think you should do entirely that. But I do think you want to have more of those guys than you do floor guys. Yeah, don't do entirely. Right, but make sure you don't leave your draft without a few guys who are an injury, or I don't know, one, at least one, two, without something on your team.

If there's an injury, you've got a stud. Have at least one of those guys. I think that's important. And Tony Pollard is, like I said, Tony Pollard, Ken Walker, two of the running backs who showed up highest in win percentage. One thing I noticed about the four leagues, the four leagues I looked at were our Fantasy Football Today League, our Magazine League, which we do in an earlier draft.

I think we probably did that in July or something. Our IDP League that Heath went undefeated in. I would say one of the worst undefeated teams in fantasy football history. Please continue undervaluing defensive players. It just gets easier and easier. Your best pick was Foye Aluokun, who ended up being the number one linebacker. Well, the next round, Tyler Lockett was pretty good, too.

I think that was round 10 or something. That was a good pick, yeah. Travis Kelsey. That's another example of a guy that was on a huge dip last year. Tyler Lockett, yeah. Great talent. Everybody was scared to death of Geno Smith. Rightfully so, think but fair um

and then uh i looked at one of my my friend league which was a half ppr league only started only two running backs and the first pick the guy who won that league brian de los santos remember him dave i do yeah he was a good dude he had the eighth probably still. Guess who he took with the eighth pick? Someone you would never take in the first round. Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen. Guess who he took in the second round? Josh Allen.

He auto-drafted and took Justin Herbert. And he won the league. I think he only auto-drafted the first two picks. They were Allen and Herbert. And then he drafted very well after that um yeah he drafted okay after that anyway uh one thing I noticed is that every winning team in those four leagues pick third through eighth I don't know if you had a lot of teams who picked first and won because Jonathan Taylor had such a disappointing season and then got hurt late in the year well

Christian McCaffrey was in the top five for running back win right if you if you made the correct number one pick I think you had a pretty good chance. Sure. Was he your number one player? Uh-huh. Okay. Well, he was obviously not the consensus. I had Eckler in a bunch of leagues.

Eckler was third? Including two that I want to talk about. He was pretty good. And yeah, I think the most important thing here, not to just poo-poo on the show topic, but there is no secret formula to winning your fantasy league. There's something.

Okay, but there is. Last year, the formula was have an elite quarterback and have an elite tight end. There's no secret formula that transfers year over year. True. Exactly, which means there's no secret formula. So I can't tell you what that formula is going to be.

No, there's a guaranteed way. And there was only one elite tight end last year, wouldn't you say? Yes. Right. And that was my first-round pick in the undefeated team. It was. You also traded for Christian McCaffrey. Some dope gave you McCaffrey.

Find somebody else to trade you Christian McCaffrey. Shouldn't that be another point to make here though is at bare minimum don't be shy about making trades no that's not that's not the topic for today's show I think no but that's part of winning a league okay fine

I mean it's pretty obvious I'm not going to lie you shouldn't be so conservative you shouldn't be so conservative that you say I don't want to trade. No trades for me. There are a lot of people out there. They refuse to make a trade unless it is clearly a win for them. You are trading Kareem Hunt and Dak Prescott for Patrick Mahomes

and somebody's stud. They will not make trades otherwise. And I say hogwash. Hogwash, Adam. Like, that's why the trade chart was invented, was to try and help people make trades that were at least fair. And that can help people improve their teams or feel better about

their team. Right. When Heath was undefeated, he made a trade with me and it made him even better. So, I think it made me better too. I had to do it. But certainly an in-season strategy is to find a desperate team that has one of its best players on a buy and make a trade to acquire that best player.

That was the circumstance. I had Christian McCaffrey. I could not afford to lose another game. I traded for Aaron Jones that week and Tom Brady. Aaron Jones was playing the Lions, and I thought he had a terrible game. That was the irony of it. But I had to give up McCaffrey,

basically, because I really felt like it was a must-win situation. So Heath was able to take advantage. So that is, you should always, I mean, there's a big injury. You find the player that lost the injured player, and you try to make a trade with that player. Find the desperate fantasy manager. Heath, I cut you off.

What were you going to say? I don't think I was going to say anything. Dave, I cut you off. What were you going to say? I'm going to say that it doesn't have to be an injury situation that precludes a trade. It should also be, maybe you got lucky in your draft

and you've got two great quarterbacks or two great tight ends and you're a little thin at running back and there's a team in your league that's loaded at running back, but their starting tight end is Dawson Knox and they need to make a move to improve their tight end. That's how you make good trades.

Something like that happened in the Kings Classic League that I was in last year and I won this league. I traded Hawkinson. I had Hawkinson and Friar Muth and Michael Fabiano offered me Tyler Lockett. This is like week three. Tyler Lockett for TJ Hawkinson. And I took it. I was a little weak at wide receiver. I needed the depth there. My best receiver was Tyreek Hill. And I needed another

guy. And I made that trade. And I felt like that trade helped my team put up more points from week to week. And I ended up winning that league. That was one of two trades that I made that ended up helping me win that league. So just be open to trades. Consider trades. You're obviously going to turn down deals that aren't in your favor at all. And you shouldn't accept a deal that's close enough. Don't do that either. But a fair deal is a fair deal, and you should be willing to take those deals.

Those are the types of risks in the game itself that can pay off in a big way for your fantasy squad. I think my biggest takeaway from looking at the teams that I looked at today, and obviously looking at four to eight teams when you're talking about all of fantasy football is somewhat of a silly exercise, but I'm also looking at the win percentage numbers

and the players that won people the most leagues both last year and this year, or sorry, both 2021 and 2022, is to spend at least some picks mid to late in your draft on players with big upside. Now, last year, that was in our leagues, a guy like Patrick Mahomes. So who's that going to be this year?

Justin Fields, maybe? Lamar Jackson? I think Trevor Lawrence. I'll say Christian Watson's going to be on a lot of my teams. It's not that easy sometimes to identify upside. I didn't really think that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had a lot of upside because I didn't believe in Geno Smith. Every year we're going to make mistakes, no question.

But give yourself some chances to have some league winners if things break right. And I think that's what a lot of the successful teams were able to do this past season. Okay, that's all I got. Heath, you look like you want to say something. I,

I've been trying to think of something to say. Right. Uh, but no, I, I don't know. Do you think we see more teams in the NFL use the fifth year option after what's happened this year?

I don't know. Did I even say Josh Jacobs name? Because he was on a lot of these teams, by the way. He was one of the best picks in fantasy, obviously. Number one running back in win percentage last year, right? Yes. Yeah. I believe so.

And another guy, just trust the talent. He was being downgraded because we thought he might have to share, and he was a first-round running back who'd proven the ability to be a workhorse back. Right, but how do you evaluate the talent of a player who didn't really do anything all that special the two previous seasons? He wasn't nearly as explosive. You know, I don't know...

I don't know why we missed so badly on Josh Jacobs. I think it was because they said, basically, there was no way he was going to have the role that he had. I think it was because he played in the Hall of Fame game. Right. That was funny. But then the rationale behind it that Josh McDaniels said after the game actually made some sense,

there aren't a lot of opportunities before the season to get that type of competition for your running back where he's taking hits. That never happens to a running back in practice. I get why they did it and Jacobs didn't seem bothered by it. There was somebody on this show that thought that Josh Jacobs wasn't quite in a dead zone, but maybe the guy right before the dead zone because he had a role that could be pretty solid to maybe great for, for the Raiders last year.

And it just look, what, what ended up working out was that he, he stayed healthy and he was good. And he caught some extra passes that we weren't expecting him to get. And he ran hard. He was in a contract year. He showed out each of the previous three seasons,

14 PPR points per game. You could set your watch to it last year, 19. Right. I'm kind of glad that he's franchise tagged. I want him to ball out one more time. Get that bag, Josh, earn it, play through it, show that you're great. He can, he can potentially do it again. And more importantly, he showed his coaches that he could do it. So they're not going to sour on him as quickly as they might have this year if he had started his first three games averaging 3.8.

The Raiders offensive line was a unit that performed a lot better than anyone expected last year. That's another thing. It ended up being a strength of the team. And going into the year, there was every reason to expect it would be one of the worst offensive lines, I'd say. So that helped as well.

All right. Thank you for entertaining that topic. I hope everybody got some takeaways there that will help them going into their drafts. We are going to do the news and notes, including a true hero in the NFL. And we will talk about that right after this break on Fantasy Football today. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same

or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is, it's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic

a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, let's talk about KJ Osborne very briefly. Applause for KJ Osborne. Let me get my canned applause here. Saved a man from a burning car. That's, I mean, unbelievable. Saved someone's life. He and a few others saw a car accident on the side of the road, got out of the car, helped a man out as the car was on fire. So amazing story.

Good job, K.J. Osborne. Hey. Yeah. I'll lay out something here. Adam Thielen gets cut from the Vikings. Minnesota doesn't do much to improve their receiving core. Is K.J. Osborne one of the players that we're talking about as a value in ADP come August?

If he's definitively the number two receiver in Minnesota? I think without question. And the first thing you're going to think of is, the guy's a hero because he saved somebody from a burning car. Well, the other thing I'm going to think of is the guy's a hero because he saved somebody from a burning car. Well, the other thing I'm going to think of is how good he was in 2021 when Adam Thielen was out. I don't have those numbers in front of me.

Right. I mean, Hawkinson's still there. That'll be a little bit of an issue, but it's, he's got a shot to contribute. He could be good. Yeah.

What do you think? 10th round in that scenario? Ninth. Yeah. Eighth be good. What do you think? 10th round? In that scenario? I think it's the 9th. Yeah. 8th or 9th. Yeah. I agree with Heath.

Closer to 8 or 9. All right. It's KJ Osborne. The Rams have given Allen Robinson permission to seek a trade. The Rams are going to release or trade edge rusher

Leonard Floyd. They also could be trading Jalen Ramsey. So this team... Does the overall atmosphere of the team... I mean, they might be pretty bad again.

Does this change anything for Cooper Cup for you guys? Only if Stafford retires. I might get a little nervous even if Stafford doesn't retire. Older quarterback coming off of arm issues. Did he have surgery too? Anybody?

I don't know. Anybody in the chat? Maybe Matthew Stafford's in the chat. How about Google? You can probably Google that. I don't Google. I don't know what that is. Bing.

There could be trouble for Cooper Cup, but I'm not yet ready to put him behind Jamar Chase in full PPR. Not yet. Thoughts crossed my mind. And Allen Robinson is the opposite of KJ Osborne. I can't see anybody being excited about getting Allen Robinson on their fantasy team after the year that he just had. I had to catch myself before I said years that were bad.

Years, plural. I don't think Matthew Stafford had surgery, according to Ask Jeeves. Tom Brady, I don't know if I mentioned this yesterday. I think I did. There's a rumor that he might un-retire. He's like, nope, I have a kitten. I'm staying retired. Yeah, that'll do it.

That'll keep him busy. Yes. I'm not looking to come back now. I can't play football and earn $40 million anymore. Garfield wants me to go make some lasagna. I never had a kitten or a puppy. I have a cat, but it's my wife's cat, so she was probably four when I came along. I would like a kitten or a puppy. I have a cat, but it's my wife's cat, so she was probably four

when I came along. I would like a kitten or a puppy. I think that'd be fun. I don't want to keep them after they grow, but I would like a kitten or puppy. I had like 12 kittens at one point. Really? What? Did you nurse them? No, their mom did.

What was that experience like? It wasn't great. It was a lot of heartbreak. Several of them died. Oh, no. We lived out in the country. Yeah.

Oh, man. Were you like breeding to sell them or was it just like you wanted to have a family of kittens? No, neither. We had a neighbor who had kittens and so um, so we took one and before we got it fixed, it got pregnant. And then, I mean, once that's happened, like it's very difficult to time the, you can't, couldn't get it fixed because it was nursing. And then all of a sudden it was pregnant again.

Um, so it was, uh, it was, it was a busy cat. Yeah. I don't, like, how did it keep getting pregnant? What do you mean? I mean, I understand. Couldn't you keep it away from- I'm sorry, we lived out in the country. We had cats to help take care of mice.

These cats would go outside, go hunting, and then come back in. Okay. So it was one of the other cats in the neighborhood that was causing this. Big night for them. Alright, anyway. Let's see. Brock Purdy will not be fully cleared, will be fully cleared, by the

second week of September, according to NBC Sports' Jennifer Lee Chan. Seems like something that could change along the way. Yes. Yeah. Seems like a little more certainty in that news read than

will be. Right. Keith, where is Brock Purdy in Dynasty right now? 20s? Behind Daniel Johnson. I was just about to make that joke. Can you imagine if he had one? I have him at 29 at quarterback.

I don't really believe that the way Brock Purdy kept scoring 24 fantasy points last year was legitimate or repeatable. No? No. He'd throw for 215 yards or something, he'd throw the second touchdown so he'd score 20 fantasy points um i don't i think if if he ever gets a job and gets to keep it for a full season i think he's probably something like a jared goff okay but if i'm desperate for a quarterback in a super flex dynasty, is he a cheap buy? Is he cheaper than Daniel Jones? Yeah, I think it's more likely that Brock Purdy is not a starting quarterback again in the NFL than that he's a top 12 quarterback.

Yeah, I would agree with that. Much cheaper than Daniel Jones. I don't really want to acquire – I'd rather acquire him in a – I don't know. In super flex, like my third quarterback needs to be someone who I't really want to acquire. I'd really require him. I don't know. In super flex, like my third quarterback needs to be someone who I think is going to play. And I think the only way he plays is if Trey Lance is bad. Or gets hurt again. Yeah.

By the way, Heath, would you take redraft Trey Lance or Daniel Jones? Trey Lance. Dave. I believe I have Jones a spot ahead of trey lance right now they're back to back jack uh yeah i have it uh watson no i might have jones i think i have watson lance jones okay show me that trey lance is a-okay in training camp, and he's an easy guy to move ahead of Daniel Jones. The Dolphins, according to ESPN's Jeff Darlington,

will not be pursuing any starting quarterbacks this offseason. So if you have Tua, that's good news. The Vikings released linebacker Eric Kendricks. The Titans released edge rusher Bud Dupree. Let's talk about the Bucs and the Chiefs making changes on their offensive line, potentially, anyway. At least we don't know what the Chiefs' situation will be.

But the Bucs releasing Donovan Smith, their left tackle. He played 13 games, played through injury last year. Wasn't great, but in his prime, was great. And the Chiefs, both of their starting offensive tackles, Orlando Brown on the left side, Andrew Wiley on the right side, both of them are free agents. So maybe we should talk more about the Chiefs since the Bucs are, we don't even know who their quarterback or starting running back will be.

But are you guys concerned at all about the Chiefs' offense in general if they have to replace both offensive tackles? I don't know how well those two guys graded out last year. I think Orlando Brown was elite. He was very good. And Wiley, I don't know. I think good. Like elite top 10?

Well, I actually looked on PFF and no. I have it right here. But like past what block win rate or something, I actually looked on PFF and no. I have it right here. But like past what block win rate or something, I think he was outstanding. Okay, you can check. I've got... Orlando Brown had a very good grade for his pass

protection. Wiley did not. Wiley was pretty pedestrian. Not terrible, but pedestrian. And, you know, Brown more of a zone-blocking type of offensive tackle, which means he's better at defending the space in front of him than mauling a dude. But he received good grades.

Gave up 44 pressures over 893 pass sets. It's not so bad. I mean, we'll see how they replace them. I don't necessarily think Brown and Wiley being gone means that I'm concerned about the Chiefs offense. I mean, if they draft one in the first round and they add somebody who's close to as good as Brown, then I think they'll probably be fine.

Yeah. If Andy Reid's got six months to improve his tackles, I think he can do it. If he has two weeks to improve his tackles, we've seen what happens. They're still going to be really good on the interior. The Dolphins released cornerback Byron Jones, who missed all of last year with an Achilles injury.

Remember Byron Jones recently saying he's had so many injuries he can't run or jump, but he also said he didn't want to retire. So we will see what happens with him. Let's finish the show with some emails to fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We do have another episode tomorrow where we're going to do a little bit of a free agency preview, our favorite destinations for some of the top free agents. Okay, this one is from Nick. Nick said, after getting burned drafting RBRB last year, Aaron Jones and Najee Harris, I am changing it up next season.

12-team PPR, why shouldn't I take Jamar Chase first overall? I trust Burrow over Cousins and Stafford by a mile. And I played it out. My first six picks could be Jamar Chase, Garrett Wilson, Mahomes. At 26 overall, I guess this is a 14-team league. Oh, no. What am I talking about? Oh, he misnumbered it a little bit. But, no, it would be a 12-team league.

Dobbins, Judy, Pacheco, whatever. But let's talk about Chase first overall ahead of because he trusts Burrow more than Cousins and Stafford ahead of Jefferson, ahead of Cup. If he goes that route, what do you think? It's not a bad philosophy to have. And if you look at how, what was the drop

off in PPR points per game from Justin Jefferson to Jamar Chase each of the past two seasons? It was 1.5 points in 2021 and it was 1.5 points in 2022. Are you, are you giving up a discernible edge by taking chase over Justin Jefferson? I don't think it's that big of a deal. If that's the receiver who you want to take,

but I believe that Jefferson has been healthier than chase. And I believe just the simple fact that Jefferson is the easy number one there every single week, tons of targets every single week until that changes. It's hard to love him. Chase is going to be great. He's sharing with T. Higgins. He's sharing with whoever, whatever else they do at number three receiver and at tight end and at running back.

They could make a change there. If that's your personal preference because of Joe Burrow, I get it. That's fine. But Justin Jefferson's had over 18 PPR points per game over the past two seasons with Cousins as his quarterback. I can't complain about it. Yeah, I actually came out with Chase, I think, a point and a half ahead of Jefferson for the season in my projections.

I still have Jefferson higher, but I don't think there's any problem with taking Chase number one if you prefer him over Jefferson. Not to be the well-actually guy, Dave, sorry. But actually, it was only half a point difference this past year. It was one and a half points. Jefferson better than Chase in 2021. Half a point difference in 2022. What do you have for Jefferson in 2022? 21.5. I have 21.7, and you've got 21 on the dot for Chase?

Mm-hmm. I think you're wrong. Here's what I would say. Well, I mean... Which one of you is not using decimal scoring? I'm using decimal scoring. I'm on fftoday.com. That's what I use for everything.

There we go. They use decimal scoring. I've got every single week's score that every player has added up and divided by the number of games they played. I can't think of anything more accurate than that. I've got 21.6 to 20.2. We're almost exactly...

I've got 21.7 for Jefferson. That's maybe why you shouldn't be the well actually guy. Why? I'm using a... Do you have 21.688 for Jefferson? I only have one decimal place.

And you don't round up? The hell's wrong with you, man? How could I round up if I only had one decimal place? I don't know. I wouldn't. Well, anyway, keep in mind, everybody, Justin Jefferson only caught eight touchdowns last year. Jamar Chase played six fewer games and caught nine.

I'm not saying that Jefferson's going to have more touchdowns than Chase, but I think he's going to have more than eight. And he still was better than Jamar Chase last year. So I think it's fine also, but I just want to point that out. I feel like Justin Jefferson was actually a little bit unlucky last season. This is from Eric. Where's he from? Eric is from Paducah, Kentucky.

Are you better off keeping the better overall player or the better overall value in your keeper leagues? Depends on how good that value is. Yeah, it's very case-specific. Like, give me a great player in fantasy adam justin jefferson okay so if you can keep justin jefferson for a first round pick that's typically something that's solid people really can't complain about that but what if you could keep Garrett Wilson for a ninth-round pick? Yeah, I'd take Jefferson. What if Garrett Wilson's catching passes from Aaron Rodgers?

Probably take Wilson. Okay. I don't know. What about you? That's a good question. But that's what he's asking. And it really comes down to how good of a value it is. It also depends on your league. Is everybody else in your league? I feel like a lot of the people that are listening to us

may have half their league that's just not as in-tuned or as good at fantasy football as they are. We have the best listeners. And so if you're in one of those leagues, you can find your value in the draft. It's kind of like those are the types of leagues where it's okay to take quarterback and tight end earlier as well, because you're going to find running back and wide receiver starters in round nine. So I think in a really sharp league, I think value is more important. And in something else,

it's the best players probably more important. All right something else, the best player is probably more important. Right, but also this scenario, right? Justin Jefferson in the first round or Garrett Wilson in the ninth round. If you keep Garrett Wilson, then you keep your first round pick. And you have to, you know, where is that pick? Is it fourth overall? Do you have a chance of getting Justin Jefferson back? And if not, you still have a chance of getting a great player with that pick.

So, you know, that favors the ninth round pick guy. So keep that in mind, too. Always play out your draft. Who's going to be available? Who you can get with the pick that you're going to be keeping by not keeping Justin Jefferson. Last question here.

Dynasty question. It's a trade from Rob. And Rob is from? Rob is from Eugene, Oregon. And Rob is from? Rob is from Eugene, Oregon. I feel like I've given that city lately. Let's go with Glendale, Arizona. Rob from Glendale says,

Dynasty trade, PPR, Superflex. My Mahomes. This is a big one here. Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Cooper Cup, and pick 2.10 in this upcoming draft. It's a 10-team

league. So he's giving up Mahomes, Henry, Cup, and the last pick of round two in the rookie draft. He is getting Herbert, Diggs, Barkley, and Evans. Let me lay it out one more time, right? He's downgrading from Mahomes to Herbert.

He's going from Cup to Diggs. He's going from Henry to Barkley. And pick 2.10 to Mike Evans in a super flex league. So he's getting younger at every position, but slightly worse at every position. What? He's not getting worse. Who did he go from to Barkley?

Sorry. Not getting worse. Well, technically he's getting worse because Henry was better than Barkley last year, but he's going from Henry to Barkley. I don't think I like it. C-. Yeah, I don't think I like it either. I don't like it this year.

It's probably going to pay off in 2024. Well, I don't know that that's true. The Mahomes-Herbert age difference, if it ever pays off, is paying off in like 10 years. Not that one. I meant the rest. The Cup-Diggs age difference is one year, right? Is it? Maybe two.

Diggs is 28 or 29. If you take the quarterbacks out of this trade, it's an easy win for Diggs-Barkley-Evans. Now you're putting the quarterbacks back in and you're downgrading from Mahomes to Herbert. There's something he explained to the people that it's cool to have Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback in Dynasty.

It's really awesome. You can do a full rebuild and you get done with it and he's still there as the best quarterback in the NFL just like he was before you started your rebuild. And by the way, the last pick of round two, that's 20th overall. That could be pretty damn good in a super flex league because you're going to get a bunch of quarterbacks

who go in the first round. So you could be getting... I don't know how good that's going to be this year. It's a great tight end class. It's a great running back class. I think you could get a really good pick there. All right, so don't do the trade. Okay, we're out of here, everybody.

We'll talk to you tomorrow with a preview of free agency, the best destinations for the top free agents like Jacoby Myers. Now, we'll make the most of it here. Jamal Williams, we'll talk about all the... Maybe Michael Thomas. Maybe Michael Thomas.

Wasn't it really strange how excited Michael Thomas was that Derek Carr was a Saint? Yes. Yes, it was. You think that he thinks that he's going to be on the team this year? And if he does, doesn't that indicate that he's going to be on the team this year? I think he's probably just going to follow Andy Dalton wherever Dalton goes because Dalton's so good.

I think he probably won't notice the difference except he'd be like, hey, Andy, did you change your hair color? Alright, everybody. We'll talk to you later on Fantasy Football.