Fantasy Football Today - If ____ Happens, Then ____ (07/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 18, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Some of our favorite if/then Fantasy scenarios! We start with one for Michael Pittman (3:10) and then one for Tony Pollard (7:45). Speaking of Pittman, why is Jamey moving him ahead of D.J. Moore in his rankings? ... We talk about a new way to look at touchdown rate for quarterbacks (12:30)! What makes a QB likely to have a high TD rate? Then we've got your news and notes (16:25). Is Rashaad Penny going to be a workhorse? ... Back to our If ____ Happens, Then ____ theme, we start with Alvin Kamara (22:40), Miles Sanders (24:15), Deshaun Watson (27:05), Deebo Samuel (29:05) and two more RB scenarios from Heath (33:55). If Watson misses the season, can Amari Cooper be good? If Lance is the starter, is Deebo going to disappoint? And we finish with our thoughts on the Packers backfield (37:40), the best Giants WR (40:55) and a dynasty take (42:25) ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome everybody. It is Monday, July 18th and training camp is starting. The Bills, I couldn't believe it. The Bills and the Raiders reporting to training camp today. How about that? Welcome to football season. I actually, I swear, I was just driving this morning and just got so fired up for fantasy football. I just cannot wait to do some drafts. I have intentionally taken so long to make my Scott Fishbowl picks because I am trying to prolong the process. I'm just enjoying it so much. But now I'm really excited for football and for fantasy

football and training camp is upon us so this is a great time of year uh heath is here i'm adam and jamie's back from vacation how you doing how was your vacation uh it's great it's uh it was great um i missed you missed you guys and um i have a question for our youtube audience, they could vote. Which of these things did Adam do? A, forget which of us was on the show today in terms of myself, Dave, and Heath. B, put me on the show today even though I asked not to be on the show. C, forgot to wish his son a happy birthday

at Open Show. Or D, all of the above. I wasn't going to wish son a happy birthday at Open Show or D, all of the above? I'm not. I wasn't going to wish him a happy birthday. I've already wished him a happy birthday six times today. He's not going to listen. But yeah. Oh, great.

Here's a guy who calls me numb, numb blank back in chat, ripping on me again. Yeah, it is my son's birthday. I'm a little all over the place, but that's okay. Yes, I forgot. Dave is still on vacation, so I originally had him on the show today but heath is pinch hitting i appreciate it um and let's so today is a is a fun show if blank happens then blank when did you tell

he he was on the show well what point did you realize when dave texted me and said i'm not here tomorrow what time was that last night? 8 o'clock? It shows how old I am because I was in bed when I received the text. I wasn't asleep. I was reading, but I was in bed when I received the text. In bed reading is older

than being in bed. Yeah, it's pretty old. You had your reading glasses on? I didn't have any reading glasses. I don't need them. Ryan Potter says, how old is your kid? I have a four and a two-year-old. I also now have a four-year-old and a two-year-old. My son turned four today. Happy birthday, Andrew.

Thank you. All right. Oh, did you know he does an impression of me? I swear to God, this is his impression. He puts his finger on his nose to give himself a mustache, and he goes, I'm Gary. I'm going to go do a podcast. That's his impression.

All right, here we go. So give me one of your favorite if-then scenarios. If blank happens, then blank. Jamie, kick it off. Oh, I forgot the ones I sent you. Great stuff. If Matt Ryan is not washed up, then Michael Pittman will be a top 10 wide receiver.

That's a good one. It is a pretty good one, especially because when you wrote it, you wrote, if Matt Ryan isn't washed, but on the air you said washed up, which you know I prefer, so I thank you for that. Sure.

Michael Pittman last year. He could be clean, you know, taking a shower. Almost 1,100 receiving yards, almost 1100, almost 1100 receiving yards, six touchdowns on 129 targets on a team that did not have a good passing offense. So we're hoping for more passing production there. If, if Matt Ryan is not washed up,

then Michael Pittman is a top 10 wide receiver. Actually a little controversy, Jamie moving Michael Pittman ahead of DJ more. And I said, no, don't do it. And he said, I'm doing,. And I said, no, don't do it. And he said, I'm doing it. I said, no, no, don't do it. He said, it's done. So that's controversy right there.

Not done yet. In your mind, it's done. In my mind, it's done. I don't think you should do it, though. But I'm going to. Heath, what about you, Pittman or DJ Moore? Oh, you have DJ Moore over Cooper's White or Super 2 for me now. I'm going up.

Well, why? you pitman or dj moore oh you have dj moore over like white or super two for me now and going up well why because they both you know they both have quarterback upgrades now so i wonder what what made you get get that excited about michael pitman that you're moving him ahead of dj moore uh you know when i moved dj moore ahead of michael pitman i was a little kind of like i don't i don't love this um because first off the quarterback upgrade is better for for pitman there's less competition for targets for pitman um i think the the hope would be they both score touchdowns but i think pitman's got a better chance of finding you know closer to eight touchdowns than dj moore does i would love to see both you know be double digits um i just like to set up a little bit better for for pittman um i saw i i think both have a chance to be top 10 guys uh did i give you baker mayfield

also yeah yeah so this ties in right so yeah you want me to read it or you got it yeah if baker mayfield is back to his 2020 form then dj moore will be a top 10 wide receiver and so it's i have faith in both of them. I just like the setup a little bit better for Michael Pittman. Okay. So, you know, can I give you a fun small sample size? Baker Mayfield, does anybody remember what Baker Mayfield did in week one? He threw for 321 yards on 28 pass attempts against the Chiefs.

He got hurt in week two. Played the rest of the season injured. It was so bad. But yeah, in 2020, and I think in 2019, he had two 1,000-yard receivers, Landry and Beckham. Don't quite remember the receiving stats in 2020.

But yeah, so obviously those are two guys that hopefully you can get in round three unless you're drafting with Heath, and you have to take DJ Moore first overall. But maybe round three picks for DJ Moore and Michael Pittman. Maybe round four picks. According to ADP, Michael Pittman's still round four. I don't exactly know. It's hard to know where DJ Moore is going to go at this point. Pittman's my number one receiver on my Scott Fishbowl team. Okay. All right, Heath, give me an if-then scenario. If everyone who listens

to our podcast goes to podcastawards.com and votes for our podcast in all of the different categories, then Adam will be named best male host of a podcast. That is actually incorrect. That is not a category, but we are nominated in three categories. We want you to vote for us and help us get to the next round. That would be best sports podcast, best male hosted podcast, and the people's Choice Award. Please vote for Fantasy Football today. It's actually really important to us. Please help us out.

You have until the end of the month to vote, so I'm going to bother you for the next couple of weeks. PodcastAwards.com or PodcastAwards.com slash app slash sign up. I'll put a link in the episode description. Or you can scan the QR code right there in the top right if you are on YouTube at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. But podcastawards.com, you'll see links to the voting. And please vote for us in those three categories. We really appreciate it. How about this?

If we win one of the awards, there's three, right? Yep. If we win one of the awards, I'll do as many podcast leagues as I possibly can. I'll run them all. Wow. Okay. Yes, that would be great and we can tie that in with St. Jude I think as well we could do some bidding

but don't hold me to that but we'll try for everyone that I said could get a podcast league spot I'll give them all away we gotta win interesting so I did something nice for Adam in nominating him for best male podcast host. So if Ezekiel Elliott stays healthy,

Naheem Hines will score more PPR fantasy points than Tony Pollard. What do you think about that, Jamie? If Ezekiel Elliott stays healthy, Naheem Hines will outscore Tony Pollard. I am a Naheem Hines fan, so I can see it happening. I think we're going to see him involved heavily

in the passing game as well. We talk a lot about the Packers situation because the loss of Devontae Adams and what the receiving court looks like and Aaron Jones being the leader in receptions there. I don't think that Naeem Hines will exceed the reception total for Michael Pittman, but he might be number two. And so, you know, this is a high-volume running back

from a passing standpoint once upon a time already with Phillip Rivers. I think I said maybe when we were doing our bold predictions or talking about this that he could be in the top five of receptions at the position already. So I wouldn't be surprised at all. I just wonder, like, what level of health is he getting, you know, is he the limping through the season like we saw last year or is he full health? Like we see in these training camp videos that are these, uh,

workout videos that he's posting. Um, so we'll, we'll, we'll see. It's going to be a fun, fun decision. I have them very close already. I don't know where you are Heath, uh, in terms of, in PPR, um, Pollard and nine minds, they're in terms of PPR, Pollard, and Naeem Hines. They're a couple spots away, ranking-wise, from me already. Yeah, I've got Hines projected for more points. I think I moved Pollard ahead because of the potential upside, but it's 32-34, so they are very close. Yeah, I guess the question is, what is Tony Pollard's role when Ezekiel Elliott is healthy?

Ezekiel Elliott. 10 to 12 touches a game? 10 to 12 touches a game, then how is Naeem Hines better than that? Well, last year, Tony Pollard scored 10.6 PPR fantasy points per game for the entire season. Naeem Hines scored 12 in 2020. So we get 20-20 to Naeem Hines.

Oh, okay. They are veryeem Hines. Oh, okay. They are very much in the lead. I mean, yeah, if everything works out exactly like that,

but is Naeem Hines going to have 10 to 12, I guess you think he's going to have that many touches? Well, no, he's probably not,

but he's probably going to have five to six catches. Yeah. On average, I would say. Yeah, PPR.

Per game. And then you factor in what he scored, six touchdowns in 2020? Seven, six touchdowns in 2020? Seven. Seven touchdowns in 2020. So you're talking about the touchdowns, again, if Zeke is healthy, probably similar, if not in the favor of Hines, if it goes that way.

And then the reception totals should certainly push him over. The upside for Pollard is that they do use him more in the passing game, but that's going to probably be at Zeke's expense. So we'll see. the upside for Pollard is that they do use him more in the passing game, but you know, that's going to probably be at Zeke's expense. So we'll, we'll see. I think Pollard ceiling is probably higher, but I agree with,

I'm sorry if Zeke is out, but I think that's the way I have it ranked as well. I have, I have Pollard ranked higher just with the potential of what Pollard can be. Okay. We have a live stream tomorrow, a live mock draft at 1 PM Easternm eastern you can watch it only at youtube.com slash fantasy football today so if you're listening at home and you're not watching

right now there's more content for you if you head over to youtube youtube.com slash fantasy football today that's 1 p.m eastern on tuesday a live mock draft time for a segment called jamie and adam made a bet you're backing out? He's still in. The Kareem Hunt bet? Yeah, the Kareem Hunt bet. Why would I back out? Because I feel like you know you're wrong. You know you're going to lose. Well, I mean, first off, we're going to know the stipulations pretty soon once we get the Deshaun Watson news, but

that will sort of determine how things go. But sure, you can lay out the scenarios of the bet. Feel free. So I think it was if Jacoby Brissett... You can have your shirt too if you want to right now. Jacoby Brissett and Kareem Hunt both play 16 or more games? 15. 15 or more games. Over under

59 and a half catches for Kareem Hunt. Before we say what side we're on, Heath, what would you take? Over or under 59 and a half catches for Kareem Hunt. Both he and Brissett play at least 15 games. Under. Yeah, me too.

Jamie, do you want to come on over to that one? No, I'm very comfortable with my side of the bet because A, there's also the scenario of Nick Chubb getting hurt, and then I think it's an easy over. Well, because Chubb gets so many catches. No, but the additional playing time will lead to more catches from, as you called him, fantasy poison Jacoby Brissett. He is fantasy poison. How many did you say?

59 and a half. I think the number should be set a little lower. Jamie wants the over. I'm not setting it under. I'm not setting it lower than that. 54 would be a career high. You know what? Jamie's bold.

Jamie's doesn't, you know. yeah uh i mean yeah just not a great history in the nfl of jacoby brissett throwing to his running backs but we'll see um and yeah i guess we'll get some news pretty soon heath now it's time for me and you to have a little chat oh a new way to calculate touchdown rate yes Yes. I thought this was going to be about my Russell Westbrook take, so I'm glad it's about touchdown rate instead. Yeah, you know, I was just looking, because Aaron Rodgers stands out in terms of touchdown rate, right? I mean, always, usually very, very high.

He and Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes, yeah. I didn't have a chance to look at Wilson and Mahomes, but Rodgers has had some seasons. I'm going to look at 2015 right now. I think your mic is a little wobbly, Heath, by the way. It is a little wobbly. Yeah, I don't know if you can fix that. It's a bad storm moving through right now.

Is that right? Yeah, my whole house is shaking. You never know in South Florida. We live close enough to each other. I don't think that. That fits in South Florida as as well that's true oh it's uh rainy at heath's house today uh anyway pass attempts for so for aaron rogers like 2015 he was 10th in pass attempts but he led the nfl in pass attempts inside the 10 yard line 2016 i think he also led the nfl in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line. 2016, I think he also led the NFL in pass attempts, or I'll tell you in one second,

but he was overall pass attempts. Aaron Rodgers was... He was fourth that year, sorry. It was probably 2014 I was thinking of. And he was third in green zone pass attempts. Alright, so my point is... What about 2018? This past

year, he was fifth in pass attempts inside the 10, so my point is... What about 2018? This past year, he was fifth in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, but he was 12th in overall pass attempts. I think when you have a guy who consistently throws the ball near the end zone, then we shouldn't be surprised

when he has a high touchdown rate. What do you think? I do not have any idea what your end game is here. I'm just saying that we shouldn't necessarily just look at overall pass attempts. And yeah, it was 2014. Aaron Rodgers was 14th in pass attempts,

but he led the NFL with 59 passes inside the 10-yard line. So that's how you have a high touchdown rate. You don't throw that much, but where it counts, you throw that much. You know? Okay. Doesn't that make sense? But you said you had a much. You know? Okay. Doesn't that make sense? But you said you had a new way to calculate touchdown rate.

No. I have a new theory. You have to come up with a way to actually calculate it. I don't think we should be too surprised if Aaron Rodgers has a high touchdown rate if he doesn't throw that much, but when it gets time to, you know, get near the end zone, he actually does throw more than almost anyone.

Yeah, I think it's possible that quarterbacks who are really good get to throw more in the red zone than quarterbacks who aren't as good. The good quarterbacks might have higher touchdown rates. I just want to throw that. I thought it was interesting.

Oh, wow, he's really pretty high up. To be first in green zone attempts while you're not even top 10 in regular pass attempts two years in a row, it's pretty interesting. Will they have that same trust? Not in him, but in his pass catchers down there. That's a great question.

That could be one of the things that changes for the stealers too i don't know where ben was but you know the joke was always that i never never let a running play stand in the huddle he's inside the 10 yard line um like i wonder if they have more rush attempts now inside the green zone for naji well heath will figure out a way to calculate all that so we look forward to what is your goal what would you like to find out expected touchdown rate like how their touchdown rate compares to what you would think it would be i don't have a goal here i just thought it was interesting that aaron rogers consistently throws the ball near the end zone and it sort of explains his high touchdown rate

i'm gonna take back what i say and what I said earlier. I wish you would have just asked me about Russell Westbrook. Alright, injuries, news, and notes. Bob Condotta, sorry if I'm mispronouncing that, of the Seattle Times, expects Rashad Penny to get 20 carries per game. He expects

Penny to be the lead running back. Rashad Penny, in the last six games of the season, was on pace for 2,000 rushing yards per 17 games. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry, and he was absolutely incredible. But 20 carries per game sounds absurd, but this is not the first time we've heard somebody speculate that Rashad Penny will be the guy.

So what do you think, Jamie? What does this all mean to you? I mean, if he's healthy, he should be the guy. So what do you think, Jamie? What does this all mean to you? I mean, if he's healthy, he should be the guy. Why would you not let him be the catalyst of the backfield there based on what he showed you last year? Just because Ken Walker was added, I mean, it's more of an indication potentially on the long-term scenario of what Rashad Penny

will probably be for Seattle. Clearly the injury history of what he's been for Seattle and the situation that Chris Carson's dealing with dealing with but as long as penny's like anytime somebody is drafting the seahawks backfield you're drafting walker with the potential of him being the starter or penny with the hope that he's going to stay healthy but everything is is saying penny's the guy until proven otherwise and so it feels a little bit i don't think he's going guy until proven otherwise. And so it feels a little bit, I don't think it's going to end up with the same result, but it feels a little bit like James Connor and chase Edmonds where we were pushing the injured guy down way too much.

And sure enough, he ended up staying healthy and being the better of the two. So petty is still probably the better value. Although as we've seen, you know, every time we talk about ADP, uh, it's kept,

it's crept closer and closer and penny's moved ahead now walker i'm actually looking at nfc it depends where you look right nfc adp since july 1st which is 68 drafts walker is 85th and penny is 90th um so closer yeah it's very close no matter where you look it's close and that's dropped for walker because he was in the 70s. I guess I just don't understand. I don't want to fixate too much on this 20 carries, but if you were going to make Rashad Penny the main back and you drafted Ken Walker in the second round, why wouldn't it be

13 carries to 7 or something like that? Why wouldn't it be a split? Why would you make Penny just this 20 carry back? That means a very, very small role for Ken Walker walker you know how many times are they going to run it like there's no russ anymore they made me finally get what they want there's not going to pass at all then you have to be i don't know with that

team it's gonna be tough right but all right um our next news item is about Kenyon Drake. He will not be full speed when training camp starts today. Drake actually had 13 catches on 17 targets in his first three games and then only one game the rest of the season with more than three catches last year. He had a strange year, but he's not full speed right now. Is there any reason to draft Kenyon Drake? I don't think you have to draft him. I think if you're taking a backup for the Raiders,

you're taking Zemir White with the potential of what he could be, not only in tandem with Josh Jacobs, but if Jacobs goes down because he would probably be the guy that they would I hope eventually turn to. Drake would probably stay in the same role.

If you're looking to handcuff Jacobs, probably the mirror white makes the most sense. James White was walking with, according to ESPN, what appeared to be an uncomfortable gate. And this is a guy who like Kenyon Drake got off to a hot start, catching the ball. James White had 12 catches on 13 targets in his first two games.

And he left week three with an injury. Brandon Bolden ended up with 41 catches last year for the Patriots to lead all running backs. Heath, what's your take on the Patriots' pass-catching running backs if, let's say, James White starts on the pup list? I mean, Ty Montgomery's there, so that's a possibility, but I'd say there's a bigger path towards both harris and remandre being um flexish okay uh and houston and seattle seem like long shots for jimmy garoppolo according to the athletic be interesting to see if the browns would jump into the mix we'll say it feels like he's just going to be the backup to trey lance which

makes you a little more scared about Trey Lance if things go wrong. Yeah, that's true. But if you had a team, like if Jimmy's okay with that, you got a team that was in the NFC Championship game last year, might as well just keep them at this point. And Kyler Murray has a solid chance to get a contract extension before training camp starts, according to ESPN. We got a lot more if blank, then blank.

If blank happens, then blank. After this, we'll take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. Talk to you about Miles Sanders. Talk to you about some dynasty rankings. Mark Ingram, Ronald Jones. If blank happens, then blank. Right after this on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business?

It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. All right, here we go, guys. Jamie and Heath gave us some if-then scenarios earlier. Jamie said a couple things. If Matt Ryan isn't washed up, Michael Pittman is a top 10 wide receiver.

And if Baker Mayfield is back to his 2020 form, then DJ Moore is a top 10 wide receiver. Heath said if Ezekiel Elliott stays healthy, then Naeem Hines is going to outscore Tony Pollard in full PPR. Heath, you are on the clock. Give me another if blank happens, then blank. If Alvin Kamara misses time, then Mark Ingram

will be a must-start running back. And yeah, he basically had two healthy games without Kamara last year. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You said no injuries, though. Hold on. I didn't tell Heath that rule.

I've got a lot of injury stuff because he did not mention that to me. You don't. You don't. No, you know what? Yours is different. I didn't want the handcuff. This was kind of what I was trying to avoid,

but this is your only one, so it's fine. And this guy barely gets drafted. I mean, I'm doing Scott Fishbowl because I've taken forever to make my picks. You know, we're only in round 14, I think, but I believe in round 12, Mark Ingram was still on the board. And I think he makes a lot of sense

for the Camara manager. But all right, he played two games without Camara last year, two healthy games. They didn't leave with an injury. He scored 21 points and 15 points in PPR. So I guess counterpoint, Mark Ingram's 32, and maybe he just stinks and he wouldn't be worth starting.

What do you think? Well, we didn't see a lot of evidence of that last year. Now, they could sign somebody else that would make you feel a little bit more like that, but we know that Mark Ingram takes very good care of his body and is always in the best shape of his life. And I got him in the 15th round of Scott Fishbowl. First pick of round 15. So, yeah, I think he's not going to be a top 12 running back probably, but I think the volume and the efficiency of that offense will make him a top 24 guy, probably a top 20 guy. Jamie, let's do your Miles Sanders one.

If Miles Sanders stays healthy, then he'll be a top 15 running back. I mean, he's certainly shown you his ability to run the ball. Once upon a time, he had a 50-catch season. I don't know if that's going to be in the cards in this offense with Jalen Hurts as a mobile quarterback and what they'll do with Kenneth Gainwell and obviously all the options in the passing game. But clearly the thing that we're looking at from Miles Sanders last year,

which is the most frustrating thing from his season last year, aside from the missed games, is the lack of touchdowns. He's going to score. He's going to have regression to the point where if he can get somewhere close to 7, 8, maybe 10 touchdowns in an offense that's going to be much more explosive, you're going to regret passing on Miles Sanders. So he's missed at least four games each of the last two seasons. We'll find out if they're going to bring in somebody else to sort of supplement this backfield

along with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. But I do think that if he stays healthy, and what is going to be a year where he's playing for money, it could be a big year for him. So the fact that he hates fantasy football is going to make people shy away from him. The fact that he's struggled the last couple of seasons. We've been very excited on this show for sure about Miles Sanders. Adam's even told him that to his face once upon a time.

It was a dream come true for me. I think he's going to be one of the better value picks on draft day this year. Let's see where Miles Sanders is going right now. And while I look this up, you might be surprised to know that Philadelphia running backs actually scored 15 rushing touchdowns last year. He just didn't have any of them,

but it's not like nobody scores rushing touchdowns except for Jalen Hurts. They had 15 of them, and unbelievably, Miles Sanders did not have a single one. He's going 84th, so he's going right where Ken Walker and Rashad Penny are going. So based on this report, we just heard, would you take Penny or Sanders? Sanders by a mile.

Oh, yeah. I also have Miles Sanders on my Scott Fishbowl team. I got him picked 96. And it wasn't like it's not just a last year thing. He's got nine touchdowns on 480 carries over three years in the NFL. And that same stretch of time, Boston Scott has 13 on 228. And all the other Giants, too. You think that's just weird, or you think that's purposeful? I think it's weird, and I think a lot of Boston Scott's touchdowns came without Miles Sanders. I can't tell you that for a fact, but I remember looking that up. I think that's mostly true, which just brings up the fact that Miles Sanders does have sometimes a hard time staying on the field. Yeah, it's true.

Okay, let's do a couple more here. We'll do them all, but let's do a couple more here we'll do we'll do them all but let's talk about deshaun watson heath if deshaun watson is suspended for the season then no browns pass catcher will be worth starting this is from heath if deshaun watson is suspended for the season then no browns pass catcher will be worth starting yeah i like every day it feels like we get a piece of news that's or news i should put in – that makes me feel like more or less likely this is going to happen. But, man, first off, David Njoku and Amari Cooper are the only guys who we're really thinking about might be startable as pass catchers. And I think it's pretty easy to just rule Njoku out because he's a borderline guy.

But Amari Cooper, his range of possible outcomes right now just based on Watson's status is enormous, and it has nothing to do. I mean, this whole situation has nothing to do with him. But if you told me that he and Watson were playing 17 games together, I think he's a top 12 wide receiver. If you tell me he's playing 17 games with Jacoby Brissett, I don't think he's in my top 40.

Just looking this up now, point for Amari Cooper. He's had some pretty good quarterbacks in his career. He's had Carr and Prescott for most of it. But he did have an 11-game stretch in 2020 without Dak Prescott. And that included a Ben DiNucci game in which Amari Cooper had one catch for five yards. He wasn't bad.

His 17-game pace based on those 11 games after Dak Prescott got hurt 82 catches 1066 yards six touchdowns on 116 targets I think he can do that no well the difference is like even after Dak got hurt they were still throwing the ball quite a bit I can't even remember. If it's Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, I think the Browns might throw it 25 times a game. Jacoby Brissett, fantasy poison. Sorry, Jacoby.

It's just not good for fantasy. That was Andy Dalton, right? That was Andy Dalton, who averaged, looks like, 33 pass attempts per game. But that, I don't know how much he, I don't know how many he averaged in his starts. But he had 333 pass attempts in 11 games, but I don't know how many of those were partial games.

Not all of those were starts. So probably more than 33 in his starts. Okay, Jamie. Here's a sort of quarterback one. If Trey Lance starts and Kittle and Ayuk stay healthy, then Deebo Samuel won't be a top 10 wide receiver. So you have given us if then scenarios where DJ Moore and Michael Pittman are in the top 10 if they get their good quarterback play. But if it's Trey Lance plus Kittle plus Ayuk, then Debo Samuel will not be a top 10 wide receiver.

I mean, first off, Debo doesn't want to play the same role that he played last year. So let's cut his rushing attempts in half. I think it was, what, almost 60 rushing attempts for the season? Let's say it's closer to 25 to 30. Then you take away the production, what he did as a rusher. He was amazing just as a receiver alone, you know, over 1400 yards receiving seven touchdowns, still did a great job catching the ball. But that was with, I think not a better passer, but probably somebody that was better for him. Not to say that Trey Lance can't do the same thing,

but as you've noted, a lot of his production early in the season came when Ayoub was in the doghouse and Kittle was banged up. And then when everybody was healthy, we saw the passing numbers decline a little bit. And so I still think Debo is going to be fantastic. I still think he's worth drafting in the first three rounds. I'm not taking him in the first two rounds because I'm concerned about these things. I think Trey Lance is going to run, obviously more than Jimmy Grappa. We saw the two starts that Trey Lance made. Debo's passing numbers, receiving numbers weren't as good. His targets were down a little bit too.

So I just think if you have everybody there and, you know, unproven passer, guy that's going to use his legs, I think Debo's going to suffer a little bit. So I'm not necessarily as high on Debo Samuel this year as I probably should yeah i'm pretty sure brandon iuk out targeted him in the last seven games of the season and they were yeah 43 to 35 i have something like that um and uh you know that was obviously debo samuel was getting how many how many carries uh a ton of carries. Eight a game or so. No, not quite that many.

But yeah, Heath, do you agree with that? Trey Lance healthy? Kittle, IUK healthy? Trey Lance starting. Kittle, IUK healthy? Debo Samuel, not a top 10 wide receiver. Yeah, I've got Debo 11th in my PPR projections. I rank him just a little bit higher because I move a couple guys

behind, but yeah, I absolutely believe with that. Now, it may be if he gives just a little bit higher because I move a couple guys behind. I absolutely believe with that. If he gives in a little bit to the rushing production, then he's still a top 10 guy in non-PPR where catches don't count. I've got volume concerns for sure. With Lancet quarterback, it might be less than 30 attempts per game.

Then you've got Kittle and Ayuk taking a good share of those. The question is, do you draft Debo Samuel expecting that scenario? Right now, we expect Trey Lance to be the quarterback, right? Yes. And right now, we rank George Kittle and Brandon Iuke as if they're healthy. But what if you say, I'm not drafting Debo Samuel, and there's great reasons for it, as you just laid out.

I'm not drafting him in round two. If he falls to me in round three, which he won't, then great. But what happens if Kittle gets hurt? Kittle gets hurt all the time. What happens if Ayuk gets hurt? Then are we just going to be passing up on a league winner again? So do you treat Debo Samuel on draft day as if everyone's going to play 17 games,

as if you're doing a projection? Or do you try to factor in, hey, there could be some absences. Maybe it's a total of six games where Kittle and Ayuk miss, maybe. And then he's just going to be a beast then, and he's going to make up for it. You know what I'm saying?

How do you approach it? I mean, I guess if you're playing that scenario, you also have to play the scenario of what happens if Debo gets hurt. So how good can Kittle and Ayuk be as well? You know, but yeah, it's fair. You know, I mean, like you said, Ayuk, we thought was this potential superstar going into his second season and Kyle Shanahan didn't view it that way. And as you noted, George Kittle has a hard time staying on the field. You know, his points per game are always fantastic, but he misses time and that, helps other guys traditionally but then you have the

other wrinkle of the running numbers you know I think the the draft selection of of you know Tyrion Davis Price is kind of indicative that they want another body back there and it might not be Debo Samuel that could be an indication of Elijah Mitchell and his injury concerns as well it could be an indication of Trey Sermon and his struggle. So, you know, take that into account. But I think if Debo's not running as much, that takes away his ceiling. And then Trey Lance will take away his ceiling because he will run and take away a couple of target chances that, you know, happen. But there's a lot of other scenarios. Like you said, Kittle gets hurt, Aik gets hurt, Jimmy Garoppolo starts,

and then Debo's in a better standing because of how the ball will be delivered to him. Okay. And let's go back to Heath's list here. If Ronald Jones gets 220 carries, I'm going to do a two-for-one here, two-for-one with running backs. All right, if Ronald Jones gets 220 carries. You know, I'm going to do a two-for-one here. Two-for-one with running backs. All right, if Ronald Jones gets 220 carries, then he will outscore Devin Singletary and Damian Harris.

220 is not that much, but if Ronald Jones gets 220 carries, he'll outscore Devin Singletary and Damian Harris. And if James Robinson is ready for week one, then Travis Etienne is going to be a bust. Jamie, which one do you believe in more? A bust relative to where he's getting drafted or just a bust in general? Relative to where he's being drafted.

I believe the Ronald Jones one more. Okay, if Ronald Jones gets 220 carries, he will outscore Devin Singletary and Damian Harris. Okay, Heath, which one do you believe in more? The Ronald Jones one, I believe. Because James Robinson has Cam Akers. I mean, I don't know. I just thought of this 12 hours ago.

In bed. But the James Robinson one, he could be ready for week one in a similar way to how Cam Akers was ready to come back last year and just not have any success running the ball and then Etienne could get a bigger role. But I have concerns that the people in the league view Etienne as more of like a specialty back and not a 15-carrier game guy. And I don't know that there will be enough success in the passing game to justify his ADP if he only gets eight to 10 carries, but like Jones had 192 carries in 14 games back in 2020 and turned it into

1100 yards and eight touchdowns. I think the chiefs could have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this year. I would not be surprised if they're a little bit more run heavy than they have been in the past without Tyreek Hill. I don't think there's any doubt if Ronald Jones and Clyde are splitting at that rate that Jones is going to get the short yardage work. 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns could absolutely come out of 220 touches. Do you see, going back to James

Robinson, do you see any scenario other than an ETN injury that James Robinson is a top 12 running back? He's just a great year. It's so hard coming off the injury to envision him getting back to that level that quickly. Is there a harder offense to

project on the Jaguars? I think the Broncos are harder. But you know the Broncos have a great quarterback. You don't know what to expect. No idea what to expect from Trevor Lawrence. And you got a new head coach. You got this running back situation here. I mean, it is tricky.

Do you want to be invested in the Jaguars? You don't have to spend much other than ETN. That's why Denver is more difficult, I think. I think it's more likely I could miss out on somebody really, really good on the Broncos. I can mostly just ignore Jacksonville. Yeah, but then again, you can take Jacksonville. Other than ETN, you can take them later, right? You can take Christian Kirk later.

You can take Trevor Lawrence. He might be on waivers in some leagues. So I don't know. Evan Ingram, sure. Yeah, Evan Ingram, right. All right, let's get the Jamie one here. Jamie so far has given us, if Miles Sanders stays healthy,

then he'll be a top 15 running back. If Matt Ryan isn't washed up, then Michael Pittman is a top 10 wide receiver. If Baker Mayfield is back to his 2020 form, then DJ Moore is a top 10 wide receiver. And if Trey Lance starts and Kittle and Ayuk stay healthy, then Debo Samuel will not be a top 10 wide receiver. Jamie's last one is, if Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon stay healthy,

then both will finish as top 15 running backs. Well, I think, you know, first off, anytime you truck a mascot and knock his head off, as A.J. Dillon did yesterday, that obviously gives you an additional, you know, probably 500 yards rushing and three touchdowns. Shows his capabilities for sure. I mean, we've talked a lot about Aaron Jones' role in the passing game when there's been no Devontae Adams.

And you look at this receiving core again, we're expecting a lot out of guys like Alan Lazard and Christian Watson and Sammy Watkins and either retreads or young guys that haven't done anything yet. But Aaron Jones has been so tried and true for Aaron Rodgers that he should be very productive in the passing game, again, as long as he stays healthy. He's not going to disappear as a rusher. So he certainly has the upside, as we all have him ranked, to be a top 10 guy,

if not better, potentially top five. Then Dylan, as we saw at the end of last season, had three rushing touchdowns compared to one in the last, I think it's five or six games of the Packers when Jones was coming back from injury. He was involved in the passing game to a certain extent last year. Did well when he had, you know, three plus receptions, which didn't happen very much. I think it's four or five times, but certainly showed the ability to be involved in the passing game as well. I don't think he's going to not necessarily disappear from the passing game or not be involved in the passing game. So whatever he does as a rusher on top of what he has as a passer and what, you know, combination of Jones,

this team can really, really lean on these two guys to a significant degree. And I think the upside is certainly there for both of them. There are three running backs in, in the NFC average draft position that I'm looking at that are going between 57 and 60. So in a 12 team, like, Oh wow, I don't get this. I don't get this at all.

This can't be... This must be an NFC thing. Because I expect A.J. Dillon to be here. I don't know if I expect any of these other four running backs to be here. So between 57 and 62, and this is important here because if you have the 12th pick

or 10th, 11th, 12th pick, and these guys could be available to you at the end of round five, look at this list of running backs. Antonio Gibson, J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Dillon, Josh Jacobs, Elijah Mitchell. I feel like Dillon's the only one that

I expected to be in that range. And you know... Jacob's could be. On Fantasy Pros, Gibson's in the 30s, Jacobs is 41, Dobbins is 50 and elijah mitchell is 44 but dylan is 60 on fantasy pros 62 actually so i feel like for most people drafting that run is going to be

not there at the end of round five uh but dylan on the other hand will be and kareem hunt will be as well is that a good spot for him the end of round five for But Dylan, on the other hand, will be. And Kareem Hunt will be as well. Is that a good spot for him, the end of round five for A.J. Dillon in a 12-team league? So 60th overall, right around there? It's like a round higher than I have him, but I don't hate it. Yeah, I look for him in round five. Okay.

All right, let's bounce over to Heath's list again. Oh, my favorite one. If Sterling Shepard is ready for week one, he will be the best wide receiver on the Giants. Sorry for burying the lead. If Sterling Shepard is ready for week one, he will be the best wide receiver on the Giants. Heath, I did a little quick pro football reference math here. I saw the last 25 games that Sterling Shepard's played with Daniel Jones, not including the most recent one in which he left with an injury about halfway through the season. He was on pace for 99 catches over a thousand yards, five touchdowns and 137 targets.

So many targets and catches. I know you weren't including the most recent game he left with injury, but I'm certain you included several other games that he left with injury. I did a hundred percent. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You can't avoid them, but there is a connection there with Daniel Jones that I think could be a problem for, I got, you're probably not drafting Sterling Shepard at this point anyway. We'll see if he comes off the pup during training camp, but I think it could be a problem for Galladay and Tony if Shepard's there

because I would expect Shepard to be Daniel Jones' favorite target if he's healthy because he always has been. So if Sterling Shepard is healthy, does that mean we're just not drafting any Giants wide receivers? I think people will still draft Tony and Galladay. I will probably have Shepard first amongst the group. Okay, a couple more here from Heath. If Jalen Hurts makes improvements as a passer,

he'll be in the QB1 overall discussion. We already discussed that, and everybody here agrees with it, so we probably can just go through that one quickly. The discussion will be like, well, Jalen Hurts didn't finish QB1, but here are the other guys who did. No, just kidding. I get you.

No, I got you. All right, if J.K. Dobbins plays 15 plus games this year, he'll be a top five dynasty running back by year's end. Cool. Yeah, I think J.K. Dobbins is awesome. I just need to see him back to 100% again. And they spent the offseason last year talking about him catching the ball more than they threw their running backs more last year.

So I think he'll catch a few more passes. And maybe the other thing is like we've talked about this a little bit but in dynasty rankings specifically there's a handful of guys currently ahead of dobbins who are 26 or 27 years old who won't be going in next year what are we hearing right now about jk dobbins and gus edwards nothing that's the thing we don't hear anything i mean the only thing that we've heard is mike davis was signed and they're still a little bit concerned about where they're they're at going into the start of the season but you know that's one of the teams i can't wait to get the reports on because their beat writers are fantastic you know the guys that cover that team are awesome

um and we'll get updates quickly uh once we get to the start of camp a week from today. So that's one team I can't wait to get. Pup information, are they going to be on the pup, off the pup? Practice reports, are they getting a full go in training camp reps? That's one spot that I know I'm excited to hear about. Yeah, because, uh,

you're, I guess you might see a little bit of a Dobbins discount, but you are getting a massive Gus Edwards discount. I mean, just feel like people really aren't drafting him. His ADP right now is 164th and NFC over the last, uh, 18 days. And on fantasy pros and half PPR,

it's 163rd. What did I say it was? Oh, 164th on one side. Okay, good. Well, that's reliable. I think he's still on the board in the 14th round in my Scott Fishbowl league. I drafted him in the Scott Fishbowl. You drafted him too? Round 19. Yeah.

I have Dobbins, so I might... If he's still there, I'll draft him later. I'll draft Edwards later. He will be one of the biggest risers and probably quickly if he's not on the pup and Dobbins is and Dobbins stays on the pup if we get into the middle of August. What was your favorite Scott Fishbowl pick from your squad? I don't know.

Okay, good segment um oh I'll just like Brandon no I really loved Miles Sanders at the end of round eight okay because I McCaffrey was the only running back I had to that point and I built cousins and Brady and Evans DJ Moore and cooks like I and Godwin I was really solid and then I

Miles Sanders was still there at the end of round eight so everything was okay I had a I had a tough decision um and I'm picking third so it was coming back to me with two picks to make in the next six picks of James Cook, Ramondre Stevenson, and Alexander Madison. And I didn't have any, at this point, any teams with Stevenson. So I'm like, I'll take him first and see what happens coming back to me, not expecting both of them to be there. So I took Stevenson, and then they both came back to me. I was like, you know, I have so many teams already with Madison,

even though obviously he's such a difference maker. I'm going to pass on Madison. And I took James cook and Madison nearly made it back to me. The following turn, I went like two picks in front of me. I was like, Oh my God, I might get all three of them.

Uh, but I was happy with those two. You already have that many teams that you're playing out. Uh, I have five or six already yeah and madison i think my favorite pick was mvs in round 13 was that the one you auto-picked because you used the clock i auto-pick was devin singletary and i would have taken tony pollard uh he went one pick later but i'm fine with Devin Singletary. People hate my team, but I like my team. You can see I tweeted about it. I hate the way that you share

your team. Everybody else has these beautiful graphics or shares off of their actual page. He doesn't know how to do that. Guaranteed he doesn't know how to do it. He writes their names with commas. It drove me crazy last year and it's even worse this year. Why don't you do it the way everybody else does it? Do I have to do that on my phone you can do it on your phone yeah

on your on your computer how am i doing that on my computer taking a screenshot no do you know how to take a screenshot of your computer screen every time i do a screenshot no i have to google it all right just just tell me what all your passwords are right now, and I'll do a thing. Oh, man. Okay, let's read some emails here. By the way, speaking of Sterling Shepard, Giants news today just happened. Yeah.

The guy you left out since you only care about Galladay and Kedarious Tony. Wanda Robinson signed his rookie deal. Oh, huge. I'm so sorry. Well, I didn't want to bring this up because I know Heath wasn't supposed to be on the show today and neither was Jamie, but we are doing a Wanda Robinson bonus podcast

after FFT today. Also... You and Dan? Devante Smith together, right? Pfft. God. Let's read some emails. But Jamie did start Stranger Things.

So how far into season four are you? I watched two episodes last night. what do you think you like it so far yeah of course oh god it's just so good you're in you're in luck you have terrific week of watching ahead of you all right this is from dan dan said danny p who do i keep derrick hen, Derek Henry or Justin Jefferson? It's a 10-team league, and it's full PPR, and you have to start three wide receivers plus a flex. Any penalty? First-round pick, which would be number 10 overall. Jefferson.

Man, I'll say Jefferson to be in agreement with Heath I mean the obvious question that's next is how long can you keep them I don't know that but yes that would make things easier so you guys are saying Jefferson over Derrick Henry

this is from Jake in KC dear Jim Kevin Nick and Ernest B Henry. This is from Jake in KC. Dear Jim, Kevin, Nick, and Ernest B. Browns, running backs, or backstreet boys? I can't quite tell. I have D'Ernest Johnson on the back

end of my dynasty roster. We're allowed two extra roster spots over the summer until IR designations are made before the season. So is it worth picking up Jerome forward and holding him as long as I can through the preseason? I don't have Chubb or Hunt, but it seems like there could be opportunity for a number three there to move up

at some point in a dynasty setting. I can see a situation where teams come calling the Browns for a running back if there's an injury in camp where they don't like their depth because Kareem Hunt, they're not going to pay him next year. He could be somebody that they get probably better compensation for. But obviously, Dearness Johnson, you've heard his name mentioned as well.

So yeah, if you can carry them, why not? Jim, Kevin, and Nick might be the Jonas brothers. No, it's Brown's running backs. Jim Brown. Yep. Nick Chubb. Who's Kevin? Falk?

Yep. Who is it? Who is it? Who's Kevin? You guys not hear me? What happened? Where's Kevin? No, we just don't know. So we're not saying anything.

When they lost to the Broncos, who were the two running backs that they had been? I think Ernest Byers, right? Is that his name? No, it was the other guy. Oh, that's a good question. Yeah, I don't know. Heath, get on that.

You guys are the old ones who read books. Kevin Mack? Oh, sure. I'm going to go Jonas Brothers. All right, this is a question about Juju from Matthew. I took over a Dynasty team in a 20-team Dynasty league. Yikes. My current wide receivers are Lamb, Mooney, and Bateman.

Would you trade the 2.1 pick, so I guess that would be 21st overall, in the rookie draft for Juju Smith-Schuster? Oh, yeah. Yeah. You're giving up 21 to get juju yeah uh so 20 it's a 1qb not sure but i do know how long you can keep them yeah i guess you take the chance on what you do is better than

21 tollbird or somebody there. Right. Alec Pierce, David Bell, those type of guys. All right, that's it for today's show. Stick around on YouTube for the Wandale Robinson episode and also Fantasy Football Today in 5. Remember, we have a live stream coming up on Tuesday at 1 p.m. Eastern. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Footballm. Eastern, youtube.com

slash fantasyfootballtoday. Thanks, everybody. It's great to have Jamie back. We'll have Dave back later this week. It's great to have Heath on. As always, thank you guys for stepping up. Appreciate it. And we'll talk to you all tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.