Fantasy Football Today - "If ____ Happens, Then ____" (07/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 20, 2020

Nominate us on PodcastAwards for the Sports category https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ If Cam Newton plays 16 games, then he'll be a Top 5 QB. If Blake Jarwin gets 80+ targets, then he'll be a Top 12 TE. These are just a few of the "if/then" scenarios we've got for you on today's show. First, Heath gives us his version of an Aizer stat (5:30) about the DET passing game. We debate how similar Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are and why start percentage matters ... Some news and notes (12:00) and then Round 1 of "If ____ Happens, Then ____" (13:40). It's the QB edition as we touch on Newton, Tyrod Taylor and Jared Goff ... Round 2 of today's topic (23:30) has takes on Le'Veon Bell, Jarwin and Ronald Jones. Then we've got your answers to "If ____ Happens, Then ____" via Twitter (34:10) and Facebook (44:40) ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. If Dave Richard Richard, and I get into a pizza-eating contest, then there would be a surprise winner, an upset victory.

If Keith Cummings and I compete in a 40-yard dash, there would be an upset victory. Just gonna throw that out there. I would win. Wait, it would be an upset if I beat you in a pizza-eating contest, then? No. I'm confused. I would be the upset victory just gonna throw that out there i would win wait you would be an upset if i beat you in a pizza eating contest uh no i would be the other dog yeah you were like a decade younger than me and 30 pounds lighter than me and you think that i would be favored in a 40-yard

dash you're like six inches taller than i am and everybody would pick you to beat me. Everybody. Well, I would, but I just... Okay. I'm just talking a little smack here. If blank happens, then blank. That's today's show. If this guy gets injured, then this guy's going to be awesome. We'll see. I don't really know what the guys have in store.

I actually chose to ignore what you sent in. I want to be surprised when I hear what you come up with with today's show. I want some spontaneity. We have Heath with an Acer stat. This is going to be fun. It's about the Lions. And we've got a lot of your fill in the blanks for If Blank Happens, Then Blank on Twitter and on Facebook. And Ben Schrager is back. Welcome back, man. How was your week off, sir? What's up? It was great. I missed all of you guys except Adam, but yeah, it was a great week off. You know, you haven't been here long enough to, uh, I guess you have. It's been a year,

right? Yeah, it's been long enough. Alright, you can rib on me then. That's fine. You already drafted. You did your home league. Home league, 16 teamer. It was interesting. How'd it go? I kept Michael Thomas, so that was great, but I had to take Odell at the end of the first round

because wide receivers were that bare. And it wasn't pretty. Oh, okay. So Thomas and Beckham, who are your running backs? Thomas Beckham, Chris Carson, and Mark Ingram. Ingram is just for the trade block. I'm going to get rid of him. And then Keyshawn Vaughn and Marlon Mack for the flex.

All right, 16 teams. I remember 16 teams, right. Not bad. 16-team league. Had to take Drew Brees at quarterback as the 12th quarterback, but I got a lot of hate for that. I hate it when I have to pick a guy who's like a top 10 quarterback every year to be my starter.

Ugh. The horror of it all. All right. But, yeah, the real question is, I'm the commissioner. We got to decide when is the date that you're not going to be willing to count the results as real is it the week of the playoffs week 14 if the season only goes eight weeks do you refund the money what do you guys think i think if the season goes halfway it counts in what way like whoever has the most wins right it's determined by however

you do your playoff seedings so if your playoff seedings are by points scored whoever scores the most points when the season's called is your champion or if it's by win loss record first and then points is the tiebreaker, then you do it that way. Jamie, what do you think? I had three basketball leagues, fancy basketball leagues I played, and two of them I run. One of them is bonuses throughout the season. And so they made it to the start of the playoffs. All three of the basketball leagues made it to the start of the playoffs.

One, playoffs were just starting when the season was put on hold. I just told everybody we're just going to stop because of the eight games left that they were going to play or still to play. It just made sense just to give everybody their money back. The one with the bonuses, there was a lot of back and forth. I just did the same thing. Just

don't count it as the season being played. The third one, I'm not the commissioner, and the commissioner decided since the teams had made it to the playoffs just to pay the teams that made it to the playoffs and split the pot evenly with, you know, tiering it based on first place down to sixth place. So I thought that was probably the most fair way to do it. The one that made the playoffs without the bonuses,

it was such a small buy-in that I just told everybody, let's just keep your money and not really make it a headache of having to try to figure it out. The bonuses one, it was just too crazy to try to figure out for the teams that weren't in the playoffs, are they going to pay? It was too much of a hassle. Whatever you do, you need to be very, very clear

at the beginning of the year. Come prepared for every scenario. I'm the commissioner of a baseball league, and I just set it up. I said if the season's canceled before the end of the sixth scoring period, no money will be paid. If it's canceled at or at the end

of the sixth scoring period, but before the fantasy playoffs conclude, the top four teams will split the money evenly, and there's more and more. Have all of these scenarios in your mind so and there's more and more but have all of these scenarios in your mind um so that there's no confusion i guess uh and there you go i would even uh yeah i just just be very specific and lay it out so there's no no confusion during this season and maybe this is probably a good year to not have people pay until payouts are due like

you know like a jamie league i guess typically right or in jamie's case a normal year all right guys heath i graded your razor stat last night i gave it an a plus go ahead i appreciate that no i was just thinking because we talk a lot we've had the kenny galladay marvin jones argument a lot and I think it's mostly just it's framed in a bad way. Everyone agrees that Kenny Galladay is the number one. It's just I think they're very, very close. If you look at Matthew Stafford, Kenny Galladay, and Marvin Jones in the 28 games they've played together over the past three seasons,

16-game pace, Stafford's at 4,400 yards, 38 touchdowns, 11 interceptions. Probably the biggest takeaway from this whole thing is that when Stafford has played with both Galladay and Jones, he's been like a top five fantasy quarterback. Galladay 58 catches 981 yards, eight touchdowns on 98 targets. Marvin Jones, 63, 969 touchdowns on 98 targets. Marvin Jones, 63, nine 69 and 10 on 100 targets.

Right. But that, that is not the stat I gave an a plus two. You had, you had to eliminate any Gallaudet's rookie year. Then you get an a plus to make it an even better Azar stat. You take away Kenny Gallaudet's rookie year because rookie production doesn't count.

They've played 17 games together over the past two years. Marvin Jones has three more catches. Kenny Galladay has 190 more yards and they had the same number of touchdowns. Galladay has 13 more targets and Stafford's at 4,600 yards and 33 touchdowns. Damn. That's a lot of,

that's very good. Yeah. Stafford is the, is a good takeaway there. That was eyeopening stuff. Yeah. That's a lot of, that's very good. Yeah. Stafford is the, is a good takeaway there. That was eyeopening stuff. Yeah. He's if he's himself, he's going to be a great value late on draft day.

And he's not the only one that we're going to talk about today. As far as quarterbacks go, here's my problem with Galladay versus Marvin Jones, because at the end of the year, their stats always look good. I feel like Galladay is more consistent, and Jones will have one or two weeks where he's up against the Vikings and we think he's going to be terrible,

and then he goes off for four touchdowns in those games. And outside of that, if you're looking for 10 PPR points, I think he's fine. But if you're looking to get 15-plus like you would with Galladay, he's not going to get you there very often. Yeah, I just think there probably shouldn't be seven rounds separating them. I don't think

there are seven rounds separating them. Is that what the ADP says? I guess Jones is probably like round eight. Yeah, so there might be five rounds might be too many. In PPR, I think Jones is a very good bench receiver where you're not going to

be ticked off having to start him. You're going to probably pick the wrong weeks to play him. I think that's what Dave was alluding to about, you know, during the Vikings week. I think he's, but even if it's the wrong week, at least it's 10 PPR points.

If you expect 10 PPR points, which you can expect from 50 different receivers, like at least you've got that. It's a safe floor. The, the concern would be he's 30. Now, you know,

as last year, a sign of a, you know of maybe the start of a breakdown coming for him. My concern with Jones, it's small, but it's something to take into account, is if Hawkinson is better, does it take away from both of them or does it take away from one of them? And I think it'll take away from both of them a little bit if he's a good sophomore tight end like take away from one of them? And I think it'll take away from both of them a little bit. If he's, you know, a good sophomore tight end, like we see from some of these top tier talents, when they come into the NFL, you know, their second year is when they start to take off.

He's still dealing with an injury, Hawkinson, but, um, you know, is he gonna, is he gonna take touchdowns away from both of these guys? And so after what Gallo, they showed us last year, leading the NFL in touchdown receptions and, you know, Jones certainly is sort of, I think touchdown dependent to a certain extent to help his, his fantasy value like Galladay. But the value for Jones is just, is just amazing. And that's the thing I think you want to look at with him is if you're

getting him as your third receiver, I wish Ben Schrager was Ben Gretsch was on because what he said a few weeks ago that he would never draft him because he would never start Marvin Jones. That was a little crazy. Well, do you want to guess what Marvin Jones' star percentage was when he had four touchdowns? Probably very small because it was the Vikings, like they said. 25%.

I swear to God, I was about to say 25%. 25%? Swear to God. I got asked this question over the weekend because uh i think it was the nfl's twitter site uh tweeted out the will fuller game last year and i just retweeted it healthy the ones where he caught touchdowns i'm sorry the one where he caught all those touchdowns the one where he scored 54 fantasy points yeah okay um and how many people started him that week and i'm gonna guess it's probably on the same thing i think it was in the 40s if i recall but 54 fantasy points. Yeah, okay. And how many people started them that week? And I'm going to guess

it's probably around the same thing. I think it was in the 40s if I recall, but I will check that right now. And this is why the ultimate Acer stat is going to be

started fantasy points, which I'm going to start compiling this year, assuming I can do it and it doesn't take that much work. But yeah, I believe...

Both rounders, four weeks. I believe... No, I mean, it should be fairly easy if I can get someone to export the data for me but you know I can't do that if someone does the work he can get the job but I can't there's no way I can

look at the star percentage of every player that's just I can't do that but I think Marvin Jones would probably rank pretty low on a list like that that's that's what I'm going to try to find out. And I'll look up Will Fuller. Okay, give me a minute on that. Let's go to, let's promote a few things here.

Oh, Poker Night. Oh, great. Jeez. Boy, you know what I did? I mean, I need to redeem myself. I folded a straight flush last night. The best hand I've ever had, and I folded. It was bad. What are you talking about? Did you fold a straight flush, night the best hand i've ever had and i folded uh it was bad

what are you talking about i played fold a straight flush or did you get unlucky i folded what ended up being a straight flush i played last night on faded spade uh with some friends and i got dealt four or five diamonds the flop came out it was like a 10 and a six maybe and then an ace of diamonds. I have an outside chance of a flush, an outside chance of a... No, it couldn't have been a 6. I had an outside chance, whatever. Somebody raised. I was like, no, I'm out. Next two cards, two of diamonds, three of diamonds.

I would have had a straight flush and I folded. Oops. Tomorrow, I get to redeem myself. Tuesday night, join us on Twitch. Twitch.com slash FF today. We'll be playing on Faded Spade Card Club, a new social poker platform offering free play and custom games. We're at twitch.com slash FF today.

We always have fun. It's a great time. Tuesday night, poker night. Relax with us. Ask us some fantasy questions and just hang out. And we're doing a live mock draft on Wednesday's episode. So we haven't done one of those in a while. We're going to draft while we podcast.

You're going to hear that on Wednesday. That's going to be great. We need your help with podcastawards.com. Please check out the link in the episode description. You got 10 days left to nominate us. We need to get nominated there. We want to win the sports category or people's choice. I think it's podcastawards.com.

Is that right, Shrag podcastawards.com. You need the.com in there. But the link is in the episode description and help us out. Some news and notes. So just some COVID stuff. We thought that they might have to miss a minimum of three weeks. That is not the case if they test positive. I think it's still to be determined, but it's not a minimum of three weeks as of right now. Adam, I think it's going to be case-by-case basis. Yeah.

Where if you test negative enough after one week for some reason, maybe you get some really good treatment, then you can go back and play. I believe the three weeks thing was the maximum. They have to be returned to the active roster within three weeks. Okay. Russell Gage expected to secure the number three receiver role for the Falcons.

That's according to their team website. That's cool. Is he just like a 14 team and deeper kind of player, Russell Gage? Yep. I took him in the fishbowl with like a round. Me too, Dave. All right. Team Russell Gage. Yeah, right. And Dallas

defensive end Demarcus Lawrence is considering not reporting to camp. He has a pregnant wife. We're going to see a lot of this. We're dealing with it in baseball. Didn't turn out to be so bad in baseball, but there are going to be some players that just don't play. We have to deal with it. It makes sense to wait,

delay your draft as much as you can, I think. We'll just keep monitoring, keep following the news. Here we go. I asked you for two. If blank happens, then blank. Heath, give me your first. If Cam Newton plays 16 games, then he will be a top five

fantasy quarterback. Reactions? I moved him up to 13th in my rankings. I think there's a lot of, you know, when you get to these number two quarterbacks, you're looking for the guy that has the most upside. And I think he has the most upside. I don't know if he can still do it.

I really don't. There's no question that I'm not worried about the Patriots trying to force him to do what Tom Brady did. I'm positive that they will come up with ways to use Cam Newton that are favorable for Cam Newton. He just hasn't done it since 2017. That's not true. What do you mean? In 2018, week 15, when he got hurt, he was the number six quarterback in CBS Fantasy League.

But he was in the top five. 68% of his passes and had run for 488 yards already. He was a very great starting quarterback at that point. I think points per game he was right there too, right? Yeah, I don't know. I just know he was number six when he got hurt. Well, you said top five, Heath.

If you rank him 13th or higher than that in our drafts, you're going to get him ahead of me. I don't mind getting him with a late pick as the second quarterback top five he's so if you rank him 13th or higher than that in our in our drafts you're going to get him ahead of me i don't mind getting him with a late pick as the second quarterback but he's not going to be my first choice for um one of those number two quarterbacks yeah i would draft him over aaron rogers at this point oh you know it's funny i could see that but it's it's it's guys like daniel jones Daniel Jones. I feel like his upside is crazy. I don't want to miss on that. I'd rather get Jones than Cam.

Right. What I don't know is why would, if we're just talking upside, we're not talking about the risk of Cam being hurt or missing time or the risk of Cam just not being able to figure out the New England thing. But if we're only talking upside, why would we think that Daniel Jones

has more upside than Cam Newton? That's exactly the move that I made, Heath. I had Daniel Jones 13th, and I flip-flopped him with Newton because I think if Newton hits, he's going to be better than Daniel Jones. If Daniel Jones hits. If they both hit, I'm still going to take Jones because I think he's younger. I think that he won't run for as many yards,

but he'll throw for more yards than Cam. Better receiving core around him. I'm going with the youth here. I'm going to take Jones. All right. So, Jamie, give me your first if blank happens, then blank. It's funny because I was going back and forth

between Cam and Terod Taylor on this, but if Taylor starts 13 or more games, he'll be a top 10 quarterback. Is that more of a bold prediction or you believe that? No, I believe it. I think if he starts 13 or more games, he'll run for enough production.

He'll throw for enough. It's the rushing. It's why Daniel Jones. It's why Cam Newton. It's why Taylor. It's why these guys that if you're going to take shots on number two quarterbacks, you're doing it for that. Or you're doing it with somebody like Roethlisberger, who has a chance to throw for

4,500 yards or more and, you know, 30 touchdowns. Those are the guys that you look for. So I do think if Taylor is the starter for the majority of the season, if you took him in the fishbowl, if you took him in a super flex league, if you took him to two quarterback league, you're going to be thrilled to have that type of player on your roster because of what they do. The added bonus. He's got two years on his career, on his resume of over 500 rushing yards already and over four touchdowns, you know? So if he's going to get to that type of production with, you know, 3000 passing yards and, and 20 plus touchdowns, you know, with this offense, I think he'll be good. So, um, again, he's behind these other

guys that we've just talked about cam and Daniel Jones. And again, I'll throw in Roethlisberger. He should be behind Rogers too. But if you were to say, right, if, uh, if Anthony Lynn came out before training camp and said, we're sitting Justin Herbert, borrowing an emergency to make sure he's ready for 2021, Taylor will be ahead of Aaron Rodgers for me in my rankings. Oh, gosh, man. But he's never been top 10 on a per-game basis. He's never had this much talent around him.

I guess. But you know, the other thing is we have a lot more running quarterbacks than we did in 2015. At least that's my perception. But not when you get to the number two guys, though. Like, Minshew's there, too. Right, but you're making him top 10.

You're not even making him a number two. Oh, I'm not going to draft him top 10. But I think he'll finish top 10. Okay. I mean, he was basically 13th in 2015 per game. Yeah, that's probably in the range I would have him. I'd have him in the same spots like I have where Minshew and

Cam and Daniel Jones are. All right. Any follow-up guys to that? Tyrod Taylor? No. I think that's... I think it's very possible that he starts more than 13 games if he stays healthy and the Chargers are rolling.

Remember, everything about the Chargers has been improved this year, except for quarterback. The defense has gotten better. The offensive line's been improved. We'll see about the run game. So if Terod comes in there and he's 70% of what Phillip Rivers was last year, whereas Phillip Rivers wasn't as great as he usually is last year,

they're not going to bench him. They're not going to say, thanks for helping us win nine games. We're going to move to the kid now. They're going to ride him until my sentence is over games we're going to move to the kid now they're going to ride them until they my sentence is over they're going to ride them okay uh dave start a new sentence give me your first if blank happens then blank let's keep up the quarterback theme if cooper cup robert woods and tyler higby do what we think they're going to do then we're all going to look silly having jared goff ranked so low and. And I'm starting to think that Goff is going to be one of these amazing bargains on draft day where people just,

we're chasing after running quarterbacks and veteran quarterbacks who've been doing it for a long time for very good reason. But if Goff is surrounded by all this talent and if the run game really doesn't pick up, and do you really think that there's going to be a running back on the scene that scores 14 touchdowns? I don't think so. I think Jared Goff might be one of those quarterbacks that we should be targeting late. He had four awful games last year.

And who were they against? Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh. And in those four games, he combined for 12 fantasy points. So four games, he aver for 12 fantasy points. So four games, he averaged three points per game. If you throw out those four games, he was around 23 points per game for the season. And there's an Acer stat for you. So you throw out the four worst games that he had. He had 23 points for the season. The second time he faced San Francisco, he scored 23 fantasy points. So I would say what Dave says, a% accurate. There's like two schools of thought.

And in our fantasy football magazine that comes out in August, Ben Gretsch wrote about this, and he's talked about this a lot, and I think it's 100% accurate, is the two things you look for when you're taking a number two quarterback is high volume passing or rushing. And so Roethlisberger and Goff, for me, are the two guys that are going to throw a lot. If you want to put Stafford in that category,

if he's going to go past the number one guys, then throw him in there too. Otherwise, you're looking for rushing. So, yeah, Goff is going to have a great season if he's just better than what he showed last year. And Dave wasn't on the show last week when Ben had his trivia question, I think it was, or you did, Adam, about the only – or who allowed the few few sacks, right? Me, yeah.

That was the Rams. So shocking considering how bad the offensive line was last year that Goff wasn't sacked as much. But, you know, speaking of COVID, Whitworth had it already. You know, thankfully he's okay. His entire family had it, their left tackle. Center did too. I'm sorry?

Their center, Brian Allen. There you go. Two members. We don't know the full scope of if it's going to come back or not. As I think we understand now, it may not. That could be good. You mean they're getting it again? Not that the virus will come.

Not like we're going to have a second wave. You mean can players get it again is what you're saying? If players can get it again. They've been told that they can according to a report. Right. But we've heard the experts say you should have some immunity to it. So I get what you're saying.

Yes. But I guess what I'm getting at is hopefully the offense line is healthy. Yes. And if this is the same group, they did a good job in terms of pass protection. So Goff with his weapons could be really good. Good call. Yeah, go ahead. I struggle with Goff and the Rams and the number of pass attempts just

because, and we've talked about this in regards to Tyler Higbee and Target Share, the way that Sean McVay changes his offense from a year to year or week to week basis. They threw 518 passes in 2017. They threw 631 last year.

I got pretty close to league average. What's the big difference, though? They had a great running back in 2007. They had the best running back in football. He had a much bigger workload. Didn't he? He had like 220-ish carries or something last year. He had a much bigger workload because they ran the ball

or they threw the ball a lot more last year. Their offensive line was awesome then. But they were also really good in 2017. And here's where they've been in scoring defense in the last three... How much was the Super Bowl in 2018? 2018, yeah. But here's where they've been

in scoring defense the last three years. 12th, 20th, and 17th. So they haven't really had a great scoring defense, which might influence how many times they throw the ball. But yeah, they threw the ball a ton last year, and he had a 3.4% touchdown rate or something like that.

And if he had had his normal touchdown rate of 5.7%, he would have thrown 35.6 touchdown passes, but the number four quarterback basically tied with Deshaun Watson in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. It's Jared Goff. There are so many quarterbacks you should wait on. We've already talked about, like, five. Let's do round two. You ready?

If blank happens, then blank. Heath, you're up. If Adam Gase gets fired before week five, Le'Veon Bell will be a top-12 running back. We laugh at people getting fired. I don't want him to get fired. But his contract's guaranteed. He's made lots and lots of money.

I'm not hoping he gets fired, but they start off at Buffalo, 49ers at home, at the Colts. They're 0-3. They have Denver coming week four. They get beat by the Broncos at home and start 0-3. They have Denver coming week four. If they get beat by the Broncos at home and start 0-4, then it might be the end of the Adam Gates tenure. It's going to happen at the end of the year anyway. So I do think if they don't give the ball to Frank Gore 12 times a game

and Le'Veon Bell gets a heavy workload, then he's going to regress in the efficiency and he's going to have a much better season. So who takes over as the interim coach if he gets fired? It's got to be Greg in the efficiency and he's going to have a much better season so who takes over as the interim coach if he gets fired gotta be greg williams if that has to be that call right so now it's going to be dowell loggins calling the plays for the jets it's the same playbook and basically the same philosophies um as adam gaze would have but i think he's point would be is that gaze will screw with levion, maybe whereas the other coaches won't. You know

what might help if Gase gets fired? Trading Le'Veon Bell before the deadline. If he does get fired or doesn't. Well, either way, if they suck. I was going to say, but more likely if he doesn't get fired that they trade him. Right, but if they suck, it's more likely that Gase gets fired. I think it's going to take a lot

for a coach to get fired early in the season under the current circumstances that we're dealing with. Yeah, that makes sense. Right. It's a good point. Yeah. But this is the Jets. I mean, they hired him, and it's, you know, one year in. They had a little mini revolt in the offseason, right?

Well, just Jamal Adams, right? Yeah. That's not so great over there, Jets land. All right, Le, just Jamal Adams, right? Yeah. That's not so great over there, Jets land. All right, Le'Veon Bell, would you say top what? Top 12. Okay. Jamie, round two. If Blake Jarwin gets

85 plus targets, then he will be a top 12 tight end. How many did Witten get last year? 83. Yeah, so it's not out of the question. It's 190 targets available with Randall Cobb, Jason Witten, and Tavon Austin gone.

And so CD lamb steps in, you expect them to get maybe close to a hundred of that. And so, you know, is, is there another receiver that's going to command a ton of targets, you know, or just the 24 or so that Tavon Austin left,

you know, between Cedric Wilson and the rest of the group there. targets, you know, or just the 24 or so that Tavon Austin left, you know, between Cedric Wilson and the rest of the group there. So, you know, Jarwin, I hope he's better than what Witten did. Witten was 63, 529, and four on those 83 targets, but you essentially need about 85 targets to be a top 12 tight end.

And I think he's going to get there. So I have him ranked as a number 12 tight end right now. I think he's in that group of those number two guys that we've talked about with Gusecki and Fant and Johnnie Smith and Jay Sternberger and Hawkinson, all these guys that have

the potential to be a number one guy. But there's, I think, a clear path here for Jarwin based on what this offense is and what role he's stepping into. Yeah, I like this one. I think what people overlook sometimes

when they talk about the Cobb and the Witten targets and Lamb and Jarwin chopping those up is Jarwin had 41 of his own last year. So it's not like he has to get 85 more targets than he did last year. He should need 44 more than he did. Lamb can have the rest. And Dak has averaged 106.5 targets per year just to his tight ends. The lowest number in the last four years, 92 targets.

And that was when Witten was in the broadcast booth. So the floor for tight end targets in Dallas is 92. The good old days. If Jarwin takes a huge share of that, then we're hitting 85 targets. Jason Witten in the broadcast booth. All right. Le'Veon Bell, Blake Jarwin, and Dave finish off round two.

If his training regimen is as detailed and focused as his trainer suggests, then Ronald Jones will be a league winner this year. Ooh. All right, you got some insight there, right? I talked to his trainer, Luke Neal. He also trains Jamal Williams. And you'll expect a trainer to be overly positive about his guys no matter what.

And that was the case with Ronald Jones. But he's up to 225 pounds. I know we're always worried about when a running back gains weight. Luke Neal is also his chef. So he's cooking for Jones, and he insists that Jones is on a very strict diet and that the difference between good weight and bad weight is in the diet, as I could attest to, although I'm not a professional athlete that runs for 1,000 yards. He's been working on pass protection every single day.

He's been working on his receiving every single day. He's been working on his receiving every single day. He's running with great burst. And just one last point on the whole weight game thing. Last year, he trained with Luke Neal. He went from 206 pounds to, I think, 218 pounds, a 13 pound game. And he was still running right in the four, four range. And if you go back and watch his film from last year, plenty of examples of him running with explosiveness.

So if that keeps up and he gained less weight this offseason, then Ronald Jones is going to have speed on his side. And if the pass protection really plays out for him, then he's going to be on the field a lot for Tampa Bay. Last week, I talked about how I thought it was crazy that Jamie spent a round five pick on Ronald Jones. I'm thinking there's a chance it might not be so crazy and that if we do catch glimpses of him in training camp,

that might be too late to get Ronald Jones this year. So you're saying he's added like 19 pounds, was it? I may have missed the number since being drafted. He's gone from 206 to 225. He did not do it in one offseason. Yeah, that's still... 206 to 218, something like that. Right.

And then he went from 218 to 225. So he actually put on less weight this offseason, but he's still as explosive. We have to wait and see just how things shake out in training camp, but I'm getting a little bit excited about where Ronald Jones is at and what he can actually contribute to Tampa Bay's run game. So he had 172 carries last year, Ronald Jones, and six of them went for 20 or more yards.

Whereas Le'Veon Bell had how many carries? And none of them went for that many, for 20 yards. 245. That's a pretty good number, by the way. Six carries of 20 or more yards for Ronald Jones. That's impressive.

Okay. It's funny because i almost had a ronald jones if i was going to say if ronald jones still can't block dario gumbawale might be james white and that's something to worry about is that agumbo wale could still be in that james white role if jones doesn't prove it in camp and that means jones and vaughn could split the rest of the work i would just just imagine that Jones would have enough of a grip to begin the season to limit Vaughn to five to seven touches per game max to begin the year. I've moved Vaughn way down in my rankings. Okay.

Let's go through some ADP for the players we talked about here. Cam Newton, QB 20 since July 1st. What's that all about? There are people who just don't want to deal with it because they're worried about the injuries. They're worried about him not fitting in. Look, the first thing I thought, because I wasn't on the podcast, I was in Chicago when Cam signed with New England. The first thing I thought is, how can you argue him as a bad late round pick? It's just a matter of where does he stack up amongst all the other

late round quarterback picks, and do you even want to carry two quarterbacks? Yeah. I think most people will want to carry two quarterbacks, especially this year. With the whole coronavirus mess. So he's not a bad late round pick.

I just don't know if I want to invest so much in him, like getting him before round nine. I think that's, I think that's ludicrous. If it's the double digit rounds, who can fight you on it? He's got that kind of upside. And if you're wrong, whoopsie daisy, you cut them and you go to the waiver and you pick up a drew lock or a Ryan Tannehill or whoever's there. Tyrod Taylor is QB 30 right now going after Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Dwayne Haskins. And Jared Goff is QB 17. It goes Roethlisberger, Goff, Burrow, Tannehill, Cam. And then let's see the other

players we talked about. Le'Veon Bell, third round pick, the end of the third round, 36th overall in between James Conner and David Johnson would be the next running back off the board. How about that? James Conner, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson.

Sounds like running back 24 or something. I'm not 100% positive because I don't have it with just running backs, but I can. Conner's going to move up. Le'Veon Bell's running back 20. I like it. Ronald Jones is RB 32. Damian Williams, J.K. Dobbins, Ronald Jones, James White.

I had a decision. I think I talked about this in the fishbowl of Damian Williams and Ronald Jones. I took Jones because I think there's more upside for him to be the lead guy in Tampa, as we talked about then Damian holding onto the job for the full season, but it's, it's something that I struggled with and hopefully I won't regret. And how about this run of tight ends here?

15 through 19 TJ Hawkinson, Noah Fant, Johnnie Smith, Jack Doyle, Blake Jarwin, Hawkinson, Fant, Johnny Smith, Jack Doyle, Blake Jarwin. Hawkinson, Fant, Jonu Smith, Jack Doyle, Blake Jarwin. Who's your favorite there? Jarwin. Jonu.

I think I have Jonu ranked the highest of them all. I might have Fant actually ranked the highest of them all, but it could be just for early season schedule. Well, thank you guys. Good stuff. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back,

tweets, Facebook comments, and emails. If blank happens, then blank. If you stick around after the commercial break, then you will hear great content. We'll be right back. Take back your free time with PC Express Online

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If blank happens, then blank. From Minute. If A.J. Green is healthy, then Joe Burrow will throw for 4,000 plus yards, second to luck in rookie passing yard history. Yep. Seems. I would say if Joe Burrow plays six times.

He's going around six. I mean, that's not bad for the fact that he's now committing himself to four more years to play. AJ Green? Yeah. What were you saying, Heath? I think I have, like I did say, if Joe Burrow plays 16 games, he'll throw for 4,000 yards. If Josh Jacobs

from Josh F, if Josh Jacobs gets 40 catches, he will be worth a first round pick in PPR. Agreed. Yeah, I think that's... I don't even know if it needs that much. Yeah, that sounds good. I mean, 40 would be nice.

Yeah, he'd be a top 10 fantasy running back in PPR. Is that basically what we're saying? I think that's pretty logical. From Mad... I should just wear my glasses. I can't ever read anything. Mad-ism. If I play fantasy,

if I play fantasy, I'll have a winning record and still miss the playoffs. Hmm. That's not good. No, I don't agree. If you have a winning record, you're going to make the playoffs.

Think positively, mad-ism. Sorry I messed your name up. Craig Stell. If Kareem Hunt plays more than 10 weeks, Nick Chubb will not be a top 15 running back this season. Wrong. Wrong. Yeah.

I don't know what the format is. I don't think that that's right. Just if Kareem Hunt plays. Yeah. Because what if he just gets the same light workload he had last year? He was getting right around 10 touches per game. But what was Chubb during the eight weeks that Hunt played? I think he was 16th or 17th in PPR.

Yeah, I think that's true. I don't know. I think Chubb will be just fine if Hunt's not getting a lot of work. I think this team's going to run more this year. If Hunt's only getting a minimal workload, then Chubb's going to get the rest. I think that would be the floor is 16.

So he's still somebody you're drafting in round two in PPR, but I think it hurts him, as we saw. All right. This is from Donnie's take. If Drew Brees gets hurt, Jameis Winston is a top three fantasy option. Ooh. As long as Taysom Hill doesn't get in the way.

I think it's, I mean, first of all, it makes Michael Thomas even safer and having the, you know, one of the best backups, but, uh,

and I would say Jared cook, whatever, but, uh, but, uh, and I would say Jared cook, whatever, but, is it worth, if you draft drew breeze, like, is it worth just taking Jameis Winston? Did your last pick not in one of our standard leagues where you only have

five bench spots, right? This is another special COVID year type of thing that commissioners have to consider. And I'll bang the drum for this all day. You should have extra roster spots in your league. Go deeper in your drafts. But doesn't that make the waiver wire that much harder if somebody gets it?

Maybe, but at the very least, it'll give all the managers in your league the opportunity to safely handcuff players if they so choose so that they can't complain on Sunday morning. I don't have a quarterback because my guy is not available to play. Well, give them at least the opportunity to go and do it. And if you're worried about the waiver being light, then enforce one of those roster spots to be the backup quarterback, where if you draft Drew Brees, you automatically have Jameis on your roster for however long you have Drew Brees.

I am leaning more and more, and this is off subject, but I'm leaning more and more towards not expanding rosters, giving COVID IR spots, and allowing people to make first-come, first-served waiver ads after Fabrents. I think that's a smart way to do it. I'll just go back to something I said about the quarterback position. I think it's easy to just say, if the starter goes out unexpectedly, Sunday morning, Saturday night, whatever the case may be, they test positive, you can use the TQB for that week. The only thing is, does that mean that I don't want to force somebody that has five bench spots that they don't want to carry two quarterbacks. Don't carry two quarterbacks.

That's why you give more bench spots, so that they can carry more quarterbacks. Well, I mean, again, in our free leagues, you can't do that. Okay. From Grant Hansel, if Andre Dillard, that's the offensive tackle for the Eagles, lives up to his potential, Carson Wentz could be

the NFL MVP and a top three fantasy quarterback. And I put this one in there because we've had this idea in our mind for a few years. The Eagles have a great offensive line.

Well, now they have a new left tackle and their old left tackle is going to play left or right guard on a Brandon right guard. So, and he's like a really old player, you know,

they, they might not have such a great offensive line. So I think that this is an important one to look at here. If Andre Dillard lives up to his potential, Carson Wentz could be the NFL MVP and a top three fantasy quarterback. You know, that's what he was in 2017. He was a top three quarterback on a per game basis. And was an mvp candidate before he tore his acl yeah so but do they need

andre dillard to live up to his potential i mean it certainly would help you know it'd help if jason peters can be a suitable right guard it would help if uh the receiving core is healthy the tight ends continue to produce and the running backs are great at the back so i mean it's all gonna have to come together on at a very high level, but I don't know what the odds are for him to win MVP, but it's probably not a bad bet given what, you know, the, the, the upside if it hits, but, you know, I don't think anybody's going to, you know, vote for him over my homes or Lamar Jackson or the guys that are there, but from a fantasy perspective, I mean, he's,

he's got top 10 upside, if not higher, if everything comes together, you know, what he was able to accomplish last year was, was pretty remarkable, you know, with his receiving court, just completely falling apart and he was still a serviceable fantasy quarterback down the stretch. His upside was capped, but that's the hope. Is that Rager's good. Jackson's back. Jeffrey may be back in some capacity and it all comes together for him.

So he's a, he's's he's a very good fantasy value for sure okay similar line of thinking here from brad stokely if the browns offensive line plays well baker mayfield is an mvp candidate and the browns win at least one playoff game they're not going to throw enough for that yeah Yeah, that's my biggest concern. I think he'll be very efficient, but I don't see him putting up monster numbers. You guys are taking all of your assumptions from what Kevin Stefanski did with the Vikings under a mandate to run the ball more

from a coach who loves to run the ball more. They traded for a fullback as soon as he took the job. And then what would you do? What would you do, Adam, if you had Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt? What would you do if you had Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry and the former number one overall pick at quarterback? Well, you had all that last year.

And did you make the playoffs? No. Okay, they ran the ball a lot last year. I mean, Adam, I see your point, but it's not like Adam Thielen and Stephon Diggs are bad receivers. And, you know, Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph are bad. It worked for the Vikings. They had the seventh best scoring defense in football.

I think the Browns were 19th or 20th. I do think the Browns defense is sneaky. It's a lot better this year. But I don't know that they're going to be a top seven defense. It's not identical. But I think the formula and, you know, the NFL copycat league, you know, however you want to frame it, there aren't very many Mahomes, but there are a lot of teams that can run the ball. And, you know, Baltimore, how they did it was different.

But San Francisco was the best rushing team last year, aside from that. And teams like to copy that. Green Bay was very successful running the ball last year. So to Dave's point, you have two great running backs. They invest in their offensive line with two pretty big pieces with worse and, and, uh, and Conklin. And so, you know, now you have, you know, better protection up front. I think Baker's is going to have a big bounce back season because he was very accurate in college.

And this offense is going to have a lot of quick throws in it. So his completion percentage should come up. If he's going to be an MVP candidate, he's got to be 40 plus touchdowns. I don't know if that's realistic in this offense. And so that's the problem. Cause he's not throwing for 5,000 yards. He's not throwing for 4,500 plus. No, I don't think he's 4,040. Maybe, but that's a, that's a huge leap.

I wasn't arguing. He's not going to win MVP. I'm just saying like this. I'm just, I just not sure that that they're going to be quite as run heavy as, Oh, they're not. But like they threw 466 passes last year. not sure that they're going to be quite as run heavy as... Oh, they're not. But they threw 466 passes

last year. League median was 575. I've got... Minnesota. Cleveland even was pretty slow and more run heavy than you would anticipate for a team that was that bad. I've got them at 530 pass attempts.

That's not enough to win MVP unless you're just... No. Patrick Holmes. Unless your receivers catch like double-digit touchdowns, then they might be in the MVP conversation. All right, a couple more here on Twitter from Chad. If Josh Allen's accuracy improves,

then the Bills will be Super Bowl champs. He said if Josh Allen's accuracy improves. Hey, it improved last year. It went up like five percentage points. And Cam Newton had a year with Norv Turner, just, what, 2017? He had his best accurate, I think it was his most accurate year. You know why? Because he was dinking and dunking a lot more.

He was. And maybe that's what Josh Allen needs to do. Maybe they just need to say, hey, dude, stop chucking it long. And then his accuracy would absolutely improve if he's just throwing it inside of 15 yards all the time. They could win the Super Bowl if Josh Allen becomes a great

player. Defense is great. Mahomes? No, he doesn't have to be Patrick Mahomes to win the Super Bowl. I mean, Mahomes got hurt last year. He got hurt and missed more than just three games. So it could happen. I mean, I think if Buffalo wins the division, got hurt and missed more than just three games. You know, so it could happen. I mean, I think if Buffalo wins a division, we've seen the Patriots path to the playoffs.

It's, you know, win, get a bye, and, you know, you got to win one game. Yeah, I think if Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson get hurt and Cam Newton's not himself, then the Bills have a good chance of going to the Super Bowl. And according to Sports Info Solutions, on passes inside of 15 air yards, Josh Allen completed it was on target, not completed on

target on 77% of them. That was 29th best among quarterbacks with at least 150 such attempts. The Bills have got to be feeling like this is their best team since Jim Kelly. Yes. Okay. Like they are good. They are legitimately really good. They could go to the Super Bowl. Okay. Last last week good. They are legitimately really good.

They could go to the Super Bowl. Okay, last tweet. They ride or die with Josh Allen. From Steve. If you only include games played on the third Sunday of November in the rain in cities west of Chicago on primetime and don't include the second quarter,

then hashtag Azerstats. Thank you, Steve. That is a good one. All right, let's go to Facebook. Thomas Boyd, if Will Fuller plays 16 games, then he will be a top 15 wide receiver. I'm nodding. Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. That wasn't enthusiastic, Heath. No, I'm not as enthusiastic. Boy, are you enthusiastic. All right, it's from Seth Deter. If Ben Roethlisberger stays healthy, then Juju is a top seven wide receiver.

True. Yes. Come on, Dave. Nope. Can't say it. I think Juju's... If you amend it to top 12, I'll go with it. I think he's my favorite player in fantasy this year.

Like, value. I just... I mean, if he's still going around four, that's ridiculous. He's my Carlos Correa. I don't know. In non-PPR, I don't know if that's necessarily... That's ludicrous. I don't...

In non-PPR? PPR, it's ludicrous. PPR, it's ludicrous. Non-PPR, I don't think it is. Since July 1st. Hold on. I'll get his ADP up. Let's see.

Oh, also, I meant to look up the Will Fuller stat. I always do this. I'll say, oh, get to it. I never do. All right. This is from Charlie Herman. If one of Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelly emerges as the undisputed number two behind Eckler, then that guy is a solid flex and a top 30 running back.

True. Josh Kelly. Yes, all day. Yeah, I'm thinking it's Kelly. Juju is currently a round 4 pick, but he's only wide receiver 14, so that probably means he's a round 3 pick in a lot of drafts. Wide receiver 14 for Juju.

Ah, right, from Chris Draughty, if Leonard Fournette plays 16 games, he'll be a top seven running back. Which team is he on? Probably true. No, I don't think that's true. Because if he stays in Jacksonville and plays 16 games,

I don't think there's any way he comes near. Sell, sell, sell. Okay. He wasn't a top seven running back last year with three touchdowns? He was like a huge difference in PPR and non-PPR. I think he was like 12th in non and 7th in PPR. Right around there.

But of course, they have Chris Thompson now. But of course, he won't score three touchdowns on those touches. So Heath's thinking yes and the others are thinking no? He was 13th in non, 7th in PPR. From Robert Joseph. If Justin Herbert starts, then Keenan Allen is back to being a wide receiver one. Maybe.

No. No, I don't think Herbert or Terod Taylor can put Keenan Allen back as a wide receiver one. Next, from Sean Mosher. If Ryan Tannehill is for real, Johnnie Smith is a top five tight end. Not enough targets. Yeah.

Amended to top 10, and I think he can be toward the bottom of the top 10 okay i'm trying to buy time to look up will fuller's start percentage here from would you like to hear a quick nugget on jamal williams adam i i would love to so the trainer luke neal who i mentioned with ronald jones is also training jamal williams they're actually working out together every day in Arizona. And Jamal Williams has focused this year on his hands. And apparently he's running routes as good as a receiver.

This is one that I feel like I have to see to believe, but he's running routes like a wide receiver. He's not a returner. He's really, Jamal Williams is just like dedicating himself to be a better pass catcher. That's been his focus. They should really trade him. Who's taking him? Oh, I would imagine some team would be looking at a player like him for depth.

Why not? As a third running back? Would you rather have Jamal Williams or Dario Gumbawale? Okay. Especially if Williams is certainly catching passes, but he's in a contract year. I mean,'m talking like a sixth seventh round pick you know something right right right right uh yeah maybe he could be in the mix wouldn't royce freeman also be in that mix couldn't leonard for next year i mean it absolutely should be in that mix for sure yeah and for net

too not that people might take freeman or williams over or net is not because the price or net is not in that mix you don't the price. Fournette is not Nemex. You don't think so? I think... No, Fournette's a feature guy. These guys are backups. But if you're trading a sixth or seventh round pick for any of these...

There's also significant contract differences. You know, Fournette's still playing on high in rookie. That's the one thing. Unless you make Jacksonville eat the money. Okay, so I want to take a trip back to memory lane. October 6th, 2019, I believe, yes. Will Fuller was started in 41% of leagues when he had 14 catches, 217 yards, and three touchdowns.

Also on that day, Aaron Jones had 19 carries, 107 yards, and four rushing touchdowns, plus seven catches for 75 yards at Dallas. So I'm looking at our notes from that show. Dave and Heath were on with me on Sunday night. Heath, you're two winners. Boy, Aaron

Jones and Will Fuller were your winners. How did you come up with that? Should I have chosen players that were worse? Dave chose DJ Chark and Kyler Murray. Would have been great if you guys had that before the game. Yeah, that would have been great. How many people started Will Fuller the week after, Adam?

Let's see. Let's check our notes from October 13th. I will say somebody actually tweeted me that when I said, you know, just stay healthy, Will Fuller. Somebody said, I started Will Fuller that week, but I got beat because of Aaron Jones. Oh, interesting. He was started in 83% of leagues the next week, and he should have had a big game,

but he dropped three touchdowns. He had five catches for 44 yards on nine targets at Kansas City. What about the week after that? I want to know just the residual effect of that three touchdown game. Okay. How long do people stick with them? Will Fuller. It's a fun game, isn't it?

Oh, he left with a hamstring injury the week after that in the first quarter. He was started in 78% of leagues. Okay. So as soon as you have one of these huge games, people just flock to you, hoping that it's going to happen every single week.

Kind of some evidence that it doesn't. How could you take someone out of your lineup when he just had a four touchdown game? You just can't do it. You know, I think it's even more impressive that he was in 40% of lineups. Yes. Considering how awful he had been for the entire year so far.

That was against Atlanta, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's why was against Atlanta, right? Yeah, yeah. That might have been why. It was a good upside play. He just put up three catches for 23 yards against the Panthers. That was the week before? I don't think the Panthers were so bad against wide receivers.

Oh, you want that? Yeah. The week before is big game. Let me read the last one here. Two more. From John Griffin. If Chase Edmonds stays healthy, he'll take the job from Kenyon Drake.

Oh, doubtful. I doubt it too, but I think... Wait, does Drake hurt? I didn't really say. Right. I do think Edmonds could take some passing work. He was used more as a receiver and a slot receiver than Drake was. He could take some of the passing work from Drake.

That could be interesting, but that's not how they operated last year. There was only one game where the backup running backs combined for more than six touches in Arizona. But I do think that Edmonds... I'm not convinced that Edmonds isn't the better talent than Kenyon Drake. I'm just not sure if he's going to get an opportunity so long as Drake is healthy. But I love the idea. If you're going to draft Drake in round one, round two, get Chase Edmonds.

Put him on your bench. And he will tell you, get Chase Edmonds, even if you don't have Drake. All right, Will Fuller in week four against Carolina. He was coming off of five catches for 51 yards the week before. He was started in 22% of leagues. Right. And he had a bad game. So people adjusted to the matchup.

But yeah, right. So then he gets the Falcons, 39 fantasy points at non-PPR, 53 in PPR. He started in 41% of leagues. The next week he started in 80% of leagues, something like that. He has five catches for 44 yards. The next week he started in 78% of leagues and he leaves with a hamstring injury in the first quarter and he misses the next three games.

Yep. That's a microcosm of Will Fuller right there. I don't necessarily agree. I do think he was a little more consistent in 2018. Um, and I think he dropped those touchdowns against the Chiefs. People would have been rewarded if he had just caught those

touchdowns. He's in the contract year. The opportunity is there to be the number one guy. I mean, he's going to be a great value. In 2018, he had 15 or more PPR points in three of seven games, 10 or more non in four of seven games. But he had 14 or more

PPR points in 4 of 7 games. And that's pretty good. And not just that, he had 3 enormous games with over 100 yards and a touchdown out of 8 games. So he had 4 good games.

He had 1 game that was solid and he had 2 stinkers. That was a really good year for him. So that that was solid and he had two stinkers. Yeah. That was a really good year for him. So that's, that's when I started to really like Fuller. Actually, no,

I like going to stay healthy. Yeah. Okay. Last one. We'll end the show, uh, from Dan. If Adam Gase is fired in October, then Le'Veon Bell has top set up top 10 upside in games played in November and

December, but only at home. If there are no fans seated in odd number rows. Hashtag AcerStats. Alright, I like it. It's taken off. Terrible stats. Those are AcerStats now. Also, if you've ever seen the movie Little Big League,

the announcer there gives great AcerStats. You know what I'm talking about, Little Big League fans. Baseball's back this week. Get excited. We'll talk to you on Tuesday with the all-upside team versus the all-floor team. We'll figure it out. We'll talk to you then.

Go win your league.