Fantasy Football Today - Is Ladd McConkey the Next Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Ryan Heath's Favorite 2026 Breakouts! (06/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 11, 2026

Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points joins Adam Aizer and Heath Cummings to discuss his recent article on finding the next breakout wide receiver. The guys start the conversation talking offensive efficiency ...in different sets (3:58) including the differences between 2 and 3 WR/TE personnel. They then jump into the case for Ladd McConkey as the next Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7:55). Shifting the conversation to other receivers that could break out, can Josh Downs (21:28) and Emeka Egbuka (22:50) take the next step? We also take a deep dive into the Bears offense and how Colston Loveland (26:00), Caleb Williams (31:40), and Luther Burden (35:00) all play a role. Finishing up with taking a look at some impact receivers from around the league, the guys talk Zay Flowers (48:00), Mike Evans (52:16), & more. Some News and Notes (1:00:40) wraps up the show!Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:18 Thursday, June 11th. And we have an awesome guest for you today. The best Heath in the fantasy industry. Ryan Heath is here. Welcome, Ryan. Welcome back to fantasy football today. Hey, thanks for having me back. Yeah, I don't know if I can take title of the best Heath in the fantasy industry when we've got Heath Cummings right here.
Starting point is 00:00:38 But I appreciate it. I'll take the compliment. Yeah, I guess we'll find out, Heath. You got an hour to put yourself. You know, I'm very excited about today's show because almost every time that I hear Ryan on one of our shows or I've talked to Ryan, he just comes on and gives me a bunch of ammunition for guys that I was already excited about. So we seem to often be on the same wavelength just with different evidence that we are citing. So he's going to back me up on some of my favorite players. I can't wait.
Starting point is 00:01:10 Actually, you know, I thought about because we're basically talking about an article that Ryan wrote about players that are going to benefit from personnel usage with new play callers specifically. And not in every case, but in a lot of cases. and it's a lot of it is guys Jamie really likes. I thought, Ladd McConkey, Christian Watson in particular. Jamie drafts those guys all the time. Drake London, Mike Evans, but then there's Sam Leporta.
Starting point is 00:01:38 I know Heath, you're very high on him. There's some Kyle Pittslove in here. So by the way, we're going to get some safe flowers love too, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. But Ryan kind of did this on Beyond the Box Corps with Jacob and Dan.
Starting point is 00:01:51 So if you heard that episode, some of this might be repetitive. But hopefully Heath and I will bring different perspectives and ask different questions of Ryan. Here's my first question. So you obviously study the personnel a lot and we're seeing more heavy personnel. We're doing our best to stay on subject today, right?
Starting point is 00:02:07 Even though I can be a little scatterbrain. But when it comes to heavier personnel and two tight ends and three tight ends set, do you think there is any personnel that would help a team rally from a 29 point deficit in the second half to win game four of the NBA finals? I don't know, man. I am not a basketball guy.
Starting point is 00:02:28 Yeah, sorry. I just completely am whiffing on this reference. I know the NBA finals are happening. I know people are mad about the Knicks. That's about all I can contribute to that topic. Biggest comeback in NBA finals history last night. And the answer is two-point guard lineup. Anyway, you do such an awesome work.
Starting point is 00:02:47 And it's funny, Heath, it's like there's so many angles to look at it. You sit down and say, all right, I want to analyze a play. I really never look at this kind of stuff, the personnel use of Heath. We have to start because things are changing in the NFL, huh? Yeah, I think the interesting thing is, like, a lot of times it seems like with these things, just about the time we start to get them figured out, there's a new fad coming. But I think we're still early enough on this one to where at least this season, it's going to be a prevalent part of the discussion.
Starting point is 00:03:22 Okay, so two questions for you, Ryan. Number one, give me a, this isn't a question, this is a demand. Give me a little promotion, tell people where to find your content, how to follow you on X and all that stuff. And then what is your general thesis about being able to pick wide receivers and tight ends that are going to excel in different types of personnel? Yeah, so first, you can find me on X at Ryan J. underscore Heath. You can find this article that we're talking about today and all my written work over at Fantasy Points. dot com as well. We're also on YouTube,
Starting point is 00:03:55 fantasy points, look us up, yeah, on all the platforms. But yeah, my general thesis is when we look at wide receivers over the past several years, I take like a five year time frame,
Starting point is 00:04:08 what we see is that per route, whether it's yards per out run, fantasy points per out run, any way you want to measure efficiency basically. Everything basically improves for a wide receiver. The fewer other wide receiver, receivers there are on the field so going from three receivers on the field like an 11 personnel three receiver set to two wide receivers on the field we get about a 30
Starting point is 00:04:33 ish percent increase in all of these pro route statistics right and we also see this at tight end and the reason why is because just think about target competition right if you're on the field competing for targets against a blocking tight end or against a full back it's a a lot more likely that you as the receiver that's actually like a good receiver, not just a blocker, is going to get targeted, that you're going to get the football, you're going to put up like better efficiency stats, right? Of course, the double ed sword of this is when you go from a three receiver set to a two receiver set, there's fewer receivers on the field. So kind of the whole thesis of this article is let's find the receivers that are on these teams that are going to be
Starting point is 00:05:19 on the field even in these heavier personnel sets when there's fewer overall wide receivers on the field because those are kind of the big winners just in terms of overall fantasy production if you can stay on the field in those one and two wide receiver sets. And yeah, especially as the NFL seems ready to shift even more to this, it was what we saw like with the Rams and the Seahawks and some teams last year, lots of teams drafting tight ends very high in the NFL draft. It does seem like this is out there in the league as a personnel trend. A lot of teams are going to try this year. When you say the personnel trend that are you talking specifically three tight end sets like the Rams did? The Rams outpaced everyone in that. I mean, there are over 30% of their snaps or three
Starting point is 00:06:07 tight end sets. Next most was Pittsburgh last year, which won't be the same this year as they don't have Arthur Smith anymore at about, I think, 12% or something like that. So are you talking about just two tight end sets or three? Yeah, so the three tight end sets or 13 personnel kind of get a lot of the hype. But in reality, I think that applies to only a handful of teams. I think the Rams will do it again. I think the Bears have the personnel to do that now with Loveland, with Cole Komet, with Sam Roush.
Starting point is 00:06:38 And I think maybe we could see the lions mess with it. But those are really the only three teams that I think 13 personnel specifically will be a big factor for at any point this year. I'm mostly talking about 12 personnel, so two wide receivers on the field, or 21 personnel, where you bring a fullback on and only have two wide receivers on the field. So yeah, mostly two tight end sets, full back sets is what I think we're going to see more of across most teams in the league. But yeah, aside from those few exceptions I just mentioned.
Starting point is 00:07:12 Okay. All right. So Heath, any questions, any intro questions? or shall we get into some players? Let's get into it. Okay, we do have a lot of news and notes, by the way, an update on Zach Charbonnet, an update on Chris Olive, Malik Neighbors,
Starting point is 00:07:26 Alec Pierce, not a great update on Alec Pierce. He said he could be back late in training camp. He had ankle surgery in April. So that's one. We'll talk about that a little bit. But the headliner of the story was Ladd McConkey, who's going to benefit from the personnel usage of Mike McDaniel, which is very different than what he'd been playing in previously.
Starting point is 00:07:46 question for you the story was about the next JSCN and McConkey is your best fit why and then the follow-up is would it not be Quentin Johnston benefiting why would it be McComkey? Go ahead yeah both totally fair questions so yeah starting with like why I see
Starting point is 00:08:08 the parallel to Jackson Smith and Jacob and I have to shout out my man Jacob Gibbs from beyond the box score we figured out that he gave this take before I ever did months before I wrote this article. And it just like managed to make its way up through my brain and into this article. So credit to him on the original comparison. But this was a big kind of under discussed part of the Jackson Smith and Jigba breakout last year is that he went from over his career, almost never playing in two receiver sets to getting over half of his fantasy points in those two receiver sets.
Starting point is 00:08:44 and that was foreseeable in advance because Clint Kubiak, who was the Seahawks new offensive coordinator that year, was already a big, like, heavy personnel two receiver sets type of guy, right? Just historically. So that was like something I kind of missed or I didn't like account for it enough when I was analyzing Jackson Smith and Jigba last summer. So I wanted to kind of look around the league and say what's like the biggest, clearest spot where, we have a new OC coming in that is going to shift an offense from a lot of three wide sets into a lot more heavy personnel sets. And the clearest answer for me was the Chargers with Mike McDaniel coming over from the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Ladd-McConkie ran just 10% of his routes last year with three or fewer, sorry, with fewer than three wide receivers on the field. For Jalen Waddle, for comparison, that was 46%. If you just look at overall dropback rate, the dolphins were top five in utilizing these heavy sets. The chargers were bottom five. They had a lot more spread out stuff, I think mostly because they wanted to get Keenan Allen on the field. So with that in mind, whoever now is going to stay on the field for the chargers in these heavier sets is going to benefit efficiency-wise. So that's kind of what we're trying to find.
Starting point is 00:10:09 and I think it's most likely to be a lad McConkey over a Quentin Johnston for a few reasons. When we zoom out and look at McConkey's first two seasons of his career, there's a lot of parallels that you can draw to Jackson Smith & Jigba. His overall production per route, just total fantasy production has been better through two seasons. It doesn't feel that way because he kind of went in the opposite direction from an amazing rookie year to a more disappointing sophomore season. season. But I do think that the personnel stuff with Keenan Allen had a lot to do with that, just with more receivers to compete with. And the reason that I think it's specifically McConkey and not Johnson is that if you're going to go into these heavier personnel sets, kind of the whole advantage in terms of what a defense has to do is they now have to defend the run or at least respect the run, right? Because you're in heavier personnel. You have more blocking bodies. It should be easy. easier to run out of these sets. And also, if you can pass the ball and have like an equal threat on both the run in the past, it puts the defense in a pickle. They can't just throw an extra defensive back onto the field. There was a lot of talk about this in terms of personnel matching last year with what the Rams and Seahawks were able to do. But if you can get into heavy personnel and have a good pass threat, which means having your best receiver on the field in in those sets, that can create like a really big advantage. And we have seen Mike McDaniel do this before.
Starting point is 00:11:45 So I just am in on McConkey. He's the one who's talent I most believe in. I think he is the best route runner. We see that in terms of all of our separation data over it, fantasy points that we chart. So I just have a lot of confidence in McConkey as a player. And I think it's just a perfect situation for like whichever one guy is on the field the most to kind of, yeah, massively benefit efficiency-wise. Yeah, I think the big thing for me is going to be what's their intention in terms of how much
Starting point is 00:12:18 Justin Herbert's going downfield in terms of the McConkey versus Quentin Johnston thing, because Johnson is obviously more of a, he does some stuff by the line of scrimmage, but he's going to do more of the downfield stuff. He's the guy with the big monster plays. I think it probably benefits both of them, and I prefer Ladd to Quentin Johnson. but if I'm looking at ADP and who people are getting excited about, I find myself drafting more Johnston because nobody wants to get excited about that. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:12:47 Because, well, because they're both, in theory, they'll both be on the field in these two receiver sets, right? I mean, yes. But let me ask you this, because there's something else that McConkey and JSN have had in common through their first two seasons, and that was a very high slot rate. For McConkey, it's been 66% and 61%.
Starting point is 00:13:07 For JSN, it was 68% and 77%. Last year, JSN's slot rate was 18%, 17.5%, which is super low. What do you think, is that going to happen to McConkey? Is he going to just start playing out wide more, a lot more? I think he will and I think he can. I mean, he played out wide a decent amount just because of Keenan Allen being on the team last year. And his yards per out run from out wide, I don't have it in front of me through two years. I wish I did, but I know his rookie season, he had like a top 10 yards per route run from out wide.
Starting point is 00:13:43 Like, I do think he can play out wide. And but yeah, that is like another parallel here of can this guy kind of make the jump from inside to outside? And I think McConkey is capable of it. He's also been used downfield more than JSN was through his first two years. So I think this is like a really fair comparison to make. And of course, it's a year three. breakout that we're looking for. One of my first big articles when I broke into the fantasy industry was about age curves. And kind of the thing people forget just because we got so many like amazing
Starting point is 00:14:18 wide receiver classes where these guys were breaking out in year one and year two, it used to take until year three for the majority of receivers to break out in vogue. And I think that's a little bit of what some people missed with JSN last year. And I think it could also apply to McConkey this here. We're going to take a break. I'll give you a couple stats just based on what I'm seeing on true media. Ladd-McConkie, when lined up, anywhere other than the slot, which is almost always out wide, but not always. As a rookie, he had a two, where is it, yards per route run, 2.79 yards per out run, which is amazing. Last year was 1.67. But I think that's because the targets just weren't there. I mean, he went from a 28.1% target per outrun rate out wide to 16.3%.
Starting point is 00:15:05 in his second season. He just didn't get a lot of targets last year, especially down the stretch. I got to take a break. I'm going to ask you one more JSN comparison that's not in your article, I don't think, and then we'll move on to some other players that you wanted to talk about.
Starting point is 00:15:19 We'll be right back on fantasy football today. Josh Downs was a guy that I thought had some similarities to JSN in the sense of played a lot in the slot, good times per route, maybe could have an increase in role this year unfortunately he's so much smaller and he might just stay as a slot guy
Starting point is 00:15:40 but do you see any breakout potential for Josh Downs? Heath you like Josh Downs quite a bit, right Heath? I do. I didn't like hearing that doesn't sound like so far at OTAs. He's really been playing out in two wide receiver sets as much as we were hoping, but maybe that'll change.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Yeah, Ryan, your take? Yeah, I think it's possible. I mean, it's what they said before OTAs like in interviews around the Combine and the NFL draft that it sounded like the cults believed he could play outside. So, but that, that is like a big point to me. Yeah, I actually wrote Josh Downs up as one of my favorite best ball values.
Starting point is 00:16:17 Basically on this idea that, yeah, he has really only played in 11 personnel inside and three receiver sets for most of his career. That's been largely because the cults have the options of Alec Pierce and Michael Pitman on the outside for most of his career. But yeah, now when it's Nick Westbrook Akeen or Ashton Doolin on the outside, potentially playing over him, like that I feel like that's like a much bigger sacrifice that you're making in terms of receiving ability just to get a better blocker on the field than 12. So I do think it's possible he plays outside. And if that does happen, then he's a massive value in all formats. just because whenever Downs has like played a higher route participation rate in these games,
Starting point is 00:17:08 he's been a really productive receiver. He's 13 fantasy points per game over his career, the wide receiver 18 by half PPR. In his 11 career games above a 75% route share, which which is like most full-time receivers will hit that in most games. So yeah, if he plays a full-time role, then I'm super into it. Downs in terms of career targets per route run is on a list with a bunch of studs over the first three seasons of their career. Like JSN, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olavet. He's like in that range of receiver just in terms of pure target earning when he's been on the field. So I'm into it for sure.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Was that the third or fourth different variation of how many games Josh Downs has played above a certain snap or route show? We've done that one four or five times. but I think it's always just a little bit different. No, I think he's the most obvious guy that, like, we don't know yet. Like, I feel pretty confident that Ladd McConkey's going to play more outside and in two wide receiver sets. Josh Downs is going to be much better if he gets to, and it's still just kind of an if. Right.
Starting point is 00:18:19 Worth a shot, though, 1004th overall wide receiver 47 in Fantasy Pro's ADP right now. Someone says I don't read the comments. I do read the comments. I try anyway, but they do distract me sometimes. But there is one that I, two that I wanted to read. One's from Aaron. He says, I'm a Heath guy, early FFT Dynasty adopter. But man, the hockey slander.
Starting point is 00:18:40 Come on, man. I don't not know when I slandered hockey. I mean, it's been the greatest Stanley Cup final ever so far. And you called it hockey, you called it soccer on ice, which was, I think, you slandered two sports. I think it was insightful. Like when I said that, everybody, I saw light bulbs going off above people's heads that, wow, it really kind of is. It wasn't saying anything bad about hockey or soccer. I was just talking about how closely related they are.
Starting point is 00:19:07 Okay. It sounded bad. It was a good call, though. So here's another one that I wanted to read. It's from Kaz. Abuka, and this is someone that's in Ryan's article about these potential, the next potential JSNs, the guys are going to benefit from personnel. Abuka is the next JSN, year three. He's not in year three, but it's okay.
Starting point is 00:19:25 No Mike Evans, no Rashad White, Baker bounce back. And Heath was very excited to have Ryan agree with a lot of his takes. But this one, I don't think we're going to have necessarily an agreement on because I know, Ryan, you're excited about Abuka's potential. Heath is a little nervous about the Bucca's offense, specifically about Baker-Mayfield bouncing back. But Ryan, how do you feel about Abuka being this year's JSN? I kind of see both sides of it with Ibuka.
Starting point is 00:19:52 He was like the last one in that sense. section in my article where I was kind of like, I feel way more confident in Land McConkey and a few other guys that we're going to talk about because I think there's a lot of uncertainty with how the Buccaneers personnel is going to shake out. You have new OC, Zach Robinson coming over from the Falcons where he's kind of done it both ways, right? His first year in Atlanta, they were one of the most spread out three wide receiver heavy teams that we have seen in the past few years. And last year, he pivoted harder to heavy personnel. Of course, part of that is just the wide receivers he had to work with behind
Starting point is 00:20:29 Drake London were very uninspiring last year. But I think that speaks to like there's some uncertainty. There's some versatility in what Zach Robinson might do. I do think there's a world where the Buccaneers live in 11 personnel. It's a mecca, Ibuka at Z. It's Chris Godwin in the slot. And then whatever, it's Ted Hurst on the outside at X. Or they're doing like a an obnoxiously weird rotational thing with four guys with Jaila McMillan getting involved. Like there's just a lot of ways that this could go. Or it could be perfect. It could just be heavy personnel.
Starting point is 00:21:05 Egbuka, Godwin playing a part-time role as his career winds down. I think a lot of it just depends on Chris Godwin and how like how much gassy has in the tank left, frankly. We've seen guys bounce back the year after the year after these fibula injuries. So I don't think it's out of the question that. Godwin is still a target earner in the twilight of his career, not unlike Akeen Allen. So yeah, I'm a little more just trepidacious on Egbuka. I see the argument that he could be a total league winner.
Starting point is 00:21:37 Like in terms of like first five weeks in the NFL, this guy's on a list with like Pukinaku and Randy Moss and nobody else. So I like I get it. I'm a little scared to fade him. But when it's, yeah, when it's between like him and Ladd or him and some of these other awesome round four wide receivers, Colston Loveland. Like, Igbuka is not someone that I actually have much of.
Starting point is 00:21:57 Okay. Well, you mentioned Colston Loveland. We can get into the Bears. I think they're a fascinating team right now. You also talked about Chris Godwin maybe getting a lot of targets late in his career.
Starting point is 00:22:07 He'll be 30. I feel like those slot guys are the ones who can still earn a bunch of targets. Even when they're not as good, I think about... Kenan Allen. Keenan Allen, yeah. I think about Julian Edelman.
Starting point is 00:22:19 He mentioned Keenan Allen. He was still very good, but 153 targets at age 33. Larry Fitzgerald, when he became a slot guy, he was getting 161 targets at age 34, 150 targets the year before that. Those kinds of guys, they can stick around for a while. Yeah, Heath, what do you think of the Bears' offense?
Starting point is 00:22:42 They did draft a tight end fairly early. They got rid of DJ Moore. They're super exciting, but very run heavy. but they run a lot of plays. What do you think about who's going to benefit this year? Well, I think hopefully Ryan's going to answer that question for us
Starting point is 00:22:59 because as I talked about on FFT Express this morning, like this is one of those teams. There's two or three of them where I pretty much just have the top three guys all projected for the same number of targets because it is quite a bit of an unknown. The main thing is I want to draft one of them in a draft,
Starting point is 00:23:19 and sometimes I might draft two of them. them. I think it could be Colston Leveland leading this team in targets if I think definitely will be Colston Leveland being a top three or four tight end. And then there's reasons to be excited about both Rome
Starting point is 00:23:34 and Luther Burden. I'm much more excited about burden, but I wouldn't be that surprised if Roma Dunesay just all of a sudden isn't not catching half of his targets. And or Caleb Williams gets a little bit more accurate on those downfield throws and Adunze could have
Starting point is 00:23:50 a monster. I think you talked about Ryan that Robinson going to Tampa Bay has done things a little bit differently in past years. I felt like we didn't quite get Lyons Ben Johnson approach in the first year in Chicago also, which also adds to some of the mystery. Yeah, agreed. He's definitely kind of switched things up. And especially like even during the season last year, we saw a big
Starting point is 00:24:17 shift starting around like week 11, week 12, So probably partially brought on by the Romo Dunzee injury. But if you just look at the Bears like, sorry, they're 12 and 13 personnel snap rates. So multiple tight ends on the field. It started just going much higher like week by week around the midpoint of the season. Like they were hitting 50, 60 percent. Most games like from week 11 through the wild card. And of course, that's when we saw Colston Loveland and to a lesser extent Luther
Starting point is 00:24:49 burden kind of have their breakouts, right? So I'm the most excited for Loveland just because, yeah, with the Bears drafting Sam Roush in round three, that gives them a three tight end set they could use. We saw them in two tight end sets for a lot of last year, of course. And in those sets, it's just clearly Colston Loveland that benefits the most. I it from three tight end sets, he was on the field for 98% of the routes. He had 53% percent. receiving yards market share on those plays. If you add 12 personnel into that, it's still really strong, like up at the top of the team. So I'm pretty into Loveland, like over this stretch where they started going heavier, he was averaging over nine targets per game, 16 fantasy
Starting point is 00:25:35 points per game. I just see so much upside with him. And I think that kind of whatever they do, whether it's a lot more three tight end, whether it's two tight end, or even if it's 11 personnel, which they don't really have a third receiver worth putting on the field for 11 personnel. But even if they did that, I think Loveland's on the field more than enough, kind of in any scenario. So he's my favorite of the group, but I agree it's like really hard to project. We've had more debates about the Bears in our projections calls over at fantasy points, probably more than any other team. Because, yeah, it could so easily be Luther Burden as the one receiver on the field in the heavy sets.
Starting point is 00:26:18 It could be Roma Dunesay. Both of them did it at different points last year. But yeah, I think if I were to rank them in terms of my interest at AADP, it would be Loveland, then Burden, then O'Doonese. But yeah, I can also see myself drafting any one of them on a given team. I do just want a piece of this offense. And Loveland, current fantasy pros ADP, Loveland is tight end three, is going 41st.
Starting point is 00:26:47 The next player in ADP is burden, 42 to 43 overall. And then O'Donze is 57th overall. So you get a little bit of a discount there on O'Donzee. Yeah. I did think it was interesting because we have this, and there's been, I think, more talk about it this last week coming from Ben Johnson than you normally get from a head coach with a quarterback that we think could be a star. just what they're trying to get Caleb Williams to do differently.
Starting point is 00:27:19 And it's pretty simple. It is the simple stuff that he's not doing. Listen, we're drawing up a play. There is a first read. He is open. Please just throw it to him instead of what Caleb's been doing, which is let's run around in circles a couple of times and then see if we can make a bigger play. And I don't, I'm curious if Ryan does.
Starting point is 00:27:39 I don't really have a strong lean towards if. Caleb starts doing that better, who does it benefit? And if he keeps playing kind of this bigger Kyler Murray type of football, who does that benefit? Yeah. Caleb is also just as fascinating to think about because we've seen like one of the biggest differences from him from year one to year two that we've ever seen from a quarterback in terms of sack avoidance. right? He went from one of the worst pressure to sack ratios of any QB season recently as a rookie to one of the best in year two. So I do think it's, sorry, go ahead. No, I just want to interject to that. I want you to finish, but I think the thing that's even more interesting about that is he didn't do it by getting the ball out quickly to his first read and like playing simple. That would be the way I would think if you were going to like lower cut your sack rate in half. But he just did it by getting. better at avoiding tacklers, it seems like. Yeah, but I agree, which is, yes, it's just unlike
Starting point is 00:28:49 anything we've really seen. I didn't think that that was possible. But I am kind of, that gives me like the mindset or like permission to think, okay, like Caleb Williams maybe is like way more adaptable than I've given him credit for than people want to give him credit for. Like I could believe that they, that he can totally change his play style. like at the behest of Ben Johnson in that way. So I do think it could happen in terms of who it benefits if Caleb is running around and scrambling less. That's just every pass catcher in the offense. What we see league wide is the more dropbacks where you're actually doing a pass attempt
Starting point is 00:29:31 rather than a throwaway getting sacked or scrambling, just the more all of your past catchers benefit. It's just more pass attempts that are now not being leaked out of the offense. this was a big thing with Justin Fields and why I was out on every jet last year is because Fields was one of the worst historically at this in terms of just like throwing dropbacks away out of the offense. So it's like huge for all three of them and it makes all three of the all three of the Bears pass catchers
Starting point is 00:30:02 a lot more interesting if you told me yeah Caleb's scramble rate and throw away rate and all of that are going to come way down this year. He's just going to hit his first. read, he's not like going to stand there and scramble around and try to get through every single read in the pocket or out of the pocket. Then yeah, that it just makes the offense more like higher volume in terms of like volume of actual pass attempts that can score fantasy points. And just one negative for the Bears if you care about this, their fantasy playoff schedule
Starting point is 00:30:35 is at Buffalo, home against Green Bay, home against Detroit. So that could be three bad weather games. And Caleb Williams certainly has the arm to get through it. I think that's the good news. But you don't want bad weather games necessarily. Surrounding those two games are at Miami in week 14 and at Minnesota in a dome in week 18. Unfortunately, the fantasy playoffs are all outdoors
Starting point is 00:31:00 in either Buffalo or Chicago. So I find Odunze and I'm sorry, not Odin, I find Loveland and Burden to have such fascinating 80, because it's like right in between, if you look at Fantasy Pros ADP, it's right in between that group of wide receivers that we've been talking about a lot lately, Heath, that we kind of really like, not everybody,
Starting point is 00:31:25 but Zay Flowers, Lab McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Teterole McMillan, Amecca, Abuka. All these guys, most of them were pretty young. They have breakout potential, right? And then it's, and then, I'm going to take running backs out of the equation, but then it's Colson, Loveland, Luther Burden. and then it's McLaurin, Devante Adams, Jalen Waddle, Jameson Williams, DJ Moore. My opinion is perception is that second group of receivers.
Starting point is 00:31:52 McLaren, Adams, Waddle, James, Williams, DJ Moore, will be looked at much differently than Flowers, McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, Tedro, McMillan, a mecca, Bucca. And that makes that decision really hard because if I'm on the clock, and I have to thank you, Thomas and Sam, our producers, for displaying this. If I'm on the clock and I have to choose between Loveland and Burden, with all the question marks there are,
Starting point is 00:32:15 with how unproven burden is, with 50, 60 targets last year, whatever, I'm taking all of those wide receivers ahead of him that are going ahead of him. I'm taking all of them. And then I think his ADP is basically perfect. Loveland's another case because it's a tight end, but I think my determining factor would be
Starting point is 00:32:34 I'm not taking Loveland 41st overall in a three-receiver. fantasy league. We want to talk about personnel. We go heavier personnel in our fantasy leagues and we're only starting two receivers. I like Loveland at 41. Three receiver league, I think I got to go receiver there. No, I think that makes sense.
Starting point is 00:32:52 I think we've all got, like when you're talking about Luther Burton and Tedro McMillan who are going four picks apart, that seems like a pretty clear case where Tedero McMillan probably has a much, much safer thousand yard, six to seven touchdown four. And I don't think Tedro O'McMillan can sniff Luther Burden's ceiling if Luther Burden's the best wide receiver in the Ben Johnson offense. And so you're just kind of making that decision between guys like that. And Abuk is probably more just like Burden with maybe a little bit higher floor than burden has.
Starting point is 00:33:29 But I think that might just come down to whether you're drafting based on floor or upside. The one that's interesting to me, and I don't know if Ryan had anything on him. I wanted to hear, first off, we have to make sure before we finish that he says nice things about Zayflowers. But is Terry McCloran? Because they've got a new offensive coordinator.
Starting point is 00:33:52 I don't know that we know what to expect from, but I think we could see some more target share going the way of Terry McLauran and maybe some more heavy personnel where he's just the only wide receiver that matters. Yep. All right. We're going to take a break and we'll talk about that. But the new offensive coordinator, I'll steal this joke from Dave,
Starting point is 00:34:10 called David Blow. That's his name. That name again is David Blow. We'll be right back on fantasy. You have no idea what that is, Ryan, do you? No idea. My only conception of David Blow is that he plays on Thanksgiving when there's no other quarterbacks that are healthy. Yeah, that's a Simpson's reference from when you were like negative 15 years old. We'll be right back. All right. Here's what I'm putting in the notes. We're going to finish with Terry McLoran, Zay Flowers, Mike Evans, Kyle Pitts. Good Heath? Fantastic.
Starting point is 00:34:44 I think that's probably going to be, if I was guessing, that's going to be three Heath agreements and one Heath disagreement. I don't know where we're at on McLaurin. So it's definitely two, at least two agreements and the Evans disagreement. But let's hear McLaren and Ryan, your thoughts on him. Yeah, I like him. I like just a lot of the wide receivers in that range of ADP that we had up on the screen. When I think about McLaren and the commander's offense and what David Blow wants to do,
Starting point is 00:35:15 the most concrete stuff we've gotten from Blow and from Dan Quinn is that they want to run the offense a lot more from under center than they have in the past, right? And that would be very good for the offense as a whole most likely just from the sample of work that we have from Jaden Daniels. on these under center plays. I don't have it in front of me, but he has like a pretty dramatic efficiency boost when he's dropping back from under center. And of course, under center means you can run play action better.
Starting point is 00:35:49 And if you're running under center play action and there's only one real target earner on the offense and Terry McLaren, yeah, that can be amazing efficiency-wise. McLaren was already very efficient last year, even with Marcus Marriota, which was pretty impressive to me. He believed top 10 in yards per outrun in games with Marriota
Starting point is 00:36:11 and pretty close to it, just in all of his games overall. So I think McLaurin still has the juice. My only, I guess, like pushback on McLaurin is I'm just as intrigued by Jalen Waddle going a couple spots past him there. This is like one that I'm kind of still mulling over my position on because Waddle moving over to the Broncos,
Starting point is 00:36:33 I had a tweet out yesterday where it was basically the yards per outrun leaders over the past four seasons. So since Tyree Kill came to Miami, Jalen Waddle is like eighth among all wide receivers in yards per outrun over that time frame. But he's the only one on the list next to Pooka Nakua and Nico Collins and Amuneraw St. Brown and like every alpha wide receiver that didn't have like a 30% plus first read target share. over that span. So what if Waddle, they trade a first round pick for him. We have seen Sean Payton. I would read between the lines and say he was maybe less impressed or satisfied with Cortland Sutton last year just based on the rotation that he was creating in terms of
Starting point is 00:37:22 getting Pat Bryan and Troy Franklin on the field more often instead of Sutton being like the clear one in terms of playing time. What if Waddle just is the clear one in this. Bronco's offense. He's been one of the most efficient players in the NFL per route for his entire career. He just gets to play a full-time route share now because he's no longer in this Mike McDaniel offense where they're like running so much like that him and Tyreek were always closer to like 75% of the routes rather than 90 plus percent. Like if Waddle hits that 85, 90% and route share.
Starting point is 00:37:58 I'm like pretty excited that Bo Nix led the league in dropbacks last year. This could be like a high octane dropback passing volume offense. So yeah, it's really tough for me between McClorne and Waddle. I think both are really, really strong picks here. And I first of all, if you'll read Ryan's article, I don't think we'll get to the Rams, but he's not not feeling Devante Adams because he thinks Pukunakua is going to be on the field more than he was in those one receiver sets, those three tight end sets. I'd love to maybe get you on another time to talk about that.
Starting point is 00:38:30 But Heath, what do you think about McLaurin versus Waddell? I'm, I think, higher on McLaurin relative to consensus than I am Waddle. And I'm not, I think the things that Ryan said about Jailen Wattel are accurate. I have a very complicated relationship with Sean Payton. And I think a lot of times the reason we get all these rotations is because he really likes to show everybody how smart he is and how many different players he can use on offense. And I'm not entirely sure that I believe that Bo Nix is going to elevate Jalen Waddle more than Tua did. So I think maybe what Waddle's season is going to come down to is just how good he is after the catch.
Starting point is 00:39:14 Because I'm not sure that Nix can provide much for him down the field. And I just think McCoran had this stretch of like five years where it was, 75 to 80 catches 1100 yards. And only one of those years he scored enough touchdowns to really be great. But the vibes seem to be like we realize we have one wide receiver on this team. We're just going to throw it to them over and over and over again.
Starting point is 00:39:42 I expect a bounce back for Jaden Daniels. So I'm definitely more excited about McLaurin than I am Waddell. But I think if Waddle's ADP's right, he's got a lot of upside. Oh, man. I mean, McLaren is 31. this year. He'll be 31 in September. He's maybe older than people realize.
Starting point is 00:40:00 He's been in the league seven years. Here's where he's finished in full PPR per game. 29th, 20th, 33rd, 25th, 39th, 16th, and 36th. He's currently wide receiver 22 in ADP. So twice in his career has he finished better than 22nd in ADP.
Starting point is 00:40:21 It was his only healthy season with Jaden Daniels. And he finished his wide receiver 16 at 80p. But he had, you know, 1,096 yards in 17 games. That's not great. 117 targets and 17 games. As Heath mentioned,
Starting point is 00:40:35 was all the touchdowns. It was 13. So he's obviously going to have to have more targets than 117. I don't see why he couldn't. But I don't know. His career is a little underwhelming. Based on his career, he should be drafted more like, I mean, 20 seconds, not crazy,
Starting point is 00:40:50 but maybe closer to 26, 27, something like that. All right. How about that's my way thing. Well, I think the other thing is just on that, and I don't know, maybe it won't be the case, but is wide receiver as a position going to bounce back enough or are all of Terry McClorin's high end wide receiver three seasons from the past actually wide receiver two seasons now? Yeah, maybe. He's only averaged more than 13 and a half ppr points per game twice in his career. But is wide receiver going to bounce back? because if it does, Zay Flower is going to have to be better than he was last year.
Starting point is 00:41:25 Last year he was wide receiver 12 per game. Most years with his fantasy points per game, it would have been closer to wide receiver 20 per game. So let's talk about Zay Flowers here. Heath loves Zayflowers, very high. Yeah, he's hoping for like 134 targets, if I remember correctly from this morning. This is the next JSM. There we go. All right.
Starting point is 00:41:45 So he's wide receiver 15 and ADP. Ryan, are you optimistic about Zay Flowers? I'd say generally so. I'm clicking Ladd-McConkie over him right now, but I am Zay Flowers positive, right? I would say, like, on the topic of heavy personnel, Flowers benefited from that more than any other wide receiver in the league last year. He led the NFL in targets per game with two or fewer wide receivers on the field. And yeah, I mean, he only managed 14 and a half fantasy points per game despite that.
Starting point is 00:42:19 the most like fraudulent wide receiver one fantasy finish ever, barely the wide receiver 12 and the worst year for wide receivers ever. But that said, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Ravens offense with Declan Doyle coming over. We have seen Lamar Jackson be one of the most efficient passers in the league on play action. And we saw just where the Ravens ranked in terms of play action dropback rate last year was very low. They were down at 20th after they'd been top 10, basically.
Starting point is 00:42:49 basically for Jackson's entire career. Declan Doyle coming over. His last two stops had used a lot of play action. He wasn't the play caller there, but I'd be optimistic that they're kind of bringing even more of these, like modern efficiency cheat codes into the offense. So I do think like a big bounce back from the Ravens offense in general is in the cards. I wonder if they play a little more like three wide receiver sets.
Starting point is 00:43:14 They drafted two wide receivers. Elijah Surrott was one of my favorite sleepers from the. NFL draft. And he's apparently making plays at camp right now. So maybe that becomes a thing. But yeah, I mean, regardless, Flowers is the alpha in this offense. Like, I'm fairly optimistic on him in the offense as a whole. How much do you look at things like end zone targets?
Starting point is 00:43:36 And do you think those are red zone, green zone end zone targets? Do you think those are predictable? That has been a problem for him. Sorry, I'm always searching for stats here. But he just doesn't get targeted where. counts, and he's not the biggest guy, so it might make sense to continue that way. He said four, nine, and five end zone targets in three seasons. That's just, you know, nine is fine.
Starting point is 00:44:02 Four and five is really not. But does that matter to you? Do you look at those stats? It does matter somewhat. What we do at fantasy points is we just have our expected fantasy points metric that kind of wraps all of that into it, where it's taking into account, like, where the targets are coming on the field where, yeah, obviously the end zone and the red zone targets are more valuable lead to more fantasy points on average. And yeah, I mean, Flowers has that basically he's
Starting point is 00:44:31 been, I believe, roughly in line with his XFP there in terms of what he's actually scored. So yeah, that is factoring into I think why he hasn't kind of breach like the wide receiver one territory for real is because yeah, he's not see, even if he's seeing a lot of targets, they're not the highest value ones possible. I think that's a really good point. I think the biggest thing will be, and we talked about this on Express also, but I think it was 420 pass attempts for the Ravens last year, which even for a Lamar Jackson offense is just kind of insanely low. It was, is median in his career is about a 17-game pace of 480. And so does the target share, if it regresses to that, does the target share stick in that
Starting point is 00:45:14 29% range. If it does, then there's an opportunity for him to be better without scoring more touchdowns. I also think, like, every year, a wide receiver that we say can't score touchdowns as an eight or nine touchdown
Starting point is 00:45:30 season, it was Chris Olavé last year. It was Terry McClure in the year before that. I think it was DJ more the year before that. You just, you kind of need it to be him for him to have a monster breakout. Sure. Okay. So that's two of the four. McLaren and Flowers. How about Mike Evans? Heath has Mike Evans
Starting point is 00:45:48 204th in his rankings, or 95th, I always forget, somewhere in 95th. And Ryan, you're more optimistic about the role Evans will play in a team. The 49ers run personnel packages that are so different than what the bucks were running. So how is Evans going to benefit? Yeah, Mike Evans is one of my favorite, like, middle round wide receiver clicks. If there's any old guy, wide receiver, that I'm betting on this year, it is him. So, yeah, when we look at his career, uh, mostly the Bucks have run heavy three wide receiver sets, right?
Starting point is 00:46:27 But if we just look over the past handful of seasons, whenever Evans has been in these heavier, two or fewer receiver sets, he's been up at a 34% target per outrun, 2.97 yards per outrun, both of those rank top three. And when he moves over here to the 49ers, with Kyle Shanahan, who was like obviously very early to this in terms of the league. But Shanahan loves running two or fewer wide receivers on the field, right? He plays a fullback more than anybody in the league other than Mike McDaniel, basically.
Starting point is 00:47:06 He doesn't do the two tight end thing as much. But what he will do is he'll have kind of a hybrid F role as a wide receiver. It was Juan Jennings for a long time before he was. is fantasy relevant. Maybe it's rookie DeJohn Stribling now, if we believe what they were saying coming out of the draft that Stribling can fill kind of the blocking, receiving hybrid role. So I kind of whatever the configuration ends up being. And especially if George Kittle isn't on the field in week one, I know that's like a new cycle that's going back and forth. But if there's some combination of a fullback, a tight end who isn't George Kittle and like a hybrid blocking wide receiver on the field,
Starting point is 00:47:45 that leaves basically Mike Evans and maybe Ricky Pearsall is like the only actual receivers on the field for a lot of the 49ers dropbacks. And that just juices the efficiency for him. Evans, I think, is the best wide receiver that's played for Kyle Shanahan since Prime Julio Jones. He has been throughout his career. He's always just overperformed in the touchdown column, right? Not so much in like the per route yards efficiency column. But I think with the different personnel, the more. favorable heavy personnel here that we could see like a kind of later career renaissance from Mike Evans. He's still been top five in all of our average separation metrics over the past couple of seasons, even though he's been playing through these hamstring injuries. So I'm willing to take the upside shot. I think Mike Evans has top six wide receiver upside, similar to like what we got out of Devante Adams over the first half, 10 weeks of last year before the injuries kind of caught up to him. So that's where I see the upside. with Evans. The downside is obviously
Starting point is 00:48:47 the guy has a huge history of lower body, soft tissue injuries and he is playing next to the electrical substation. I totally get that. If you're scared off by that, totally get it. Can't blame you. But I do really see like the wide tail on the upside end as well.
Starting point is 00:49:05 Okay. Heath, give me a 30 second rebuttal. I don't know that I need a 30 second rebuttal. I'm just terrified that he's washed. That he's washed. Okay. Yeah, I do I do love the fact that your separation score is still like Mike Evans. That's, that helps. The 2025 one surprises me.
Starting point is 00:49:24 Like, it doesn't surprise me that he was still awesome at that in 2024. The fact that he still was, and it was a small sample size. But if it's, that's a positive. I might have to move him up into the, into the top 150.
Starting point is 00:49:41 He's in the top 150. He's in the top 100. All right. Let's talk about Kyle. Pitz and you know I'll say that as someone who's who's a doubter of Kyle Pitts is going to head to head against two Heaths who are pro Kyle Pitts as I recall his ADP was somewhere in the 90s and I think even that that is worth it you know in case I'm wrong that is good ADP for Kyle Pitts you know if he flops you take a tight end in the 90s and he flops it's really not that
Starting point is 00:50:08 big of a deal so everything you're about to say I just I would just preface it by saying he average 19 points per game without Drake London and 9.6 points per game with Drake London last year. And that, to me, matters more than anything else. It just has not been that good of a tight end in the Drake London. He just hasn't been a startable, start worthy fantasy tight end in the Drake London era when London's played. But what do you like about Kyle Pitts? Yeah. So from a person, Kyle Pitts is the type of tight end that I kind of want to hate on. right? It's very easy to look at these guys that haven't like played a full-time route share at every point in their career because they aren't like aren't great blockers. Like maybe you can argue that they won't even hit like a 70, 75% route share. And that's what Kyle Pitts was doing for a lot of his career.
Starting point is 00:51:06 But I mentioned earlier that Zach Robinson had shifted the Falcons a lot in terms of personnel from 2024 to 2025. going from a lot of three receivers, one tight end sets, to a lot of 12 personnel. And what that did to Kyle Pitts's route participation was it went from 67% to 86%, which is just like he goes from not fantasy viable to fantasy viable just based on that role. And what we get from the new play caller coming in with Kevin Stefansky, but it's going to be Tommy Reese calling the plays as he was for a good part in Cleveland last year. Tommy Reese is like the tight end guy. When he was at Notre Dame, he got huge seasons out of Michael Mayer and one other tight end who hasn't done anything receiving wise in the NFL whose name escapes me right now.
Starting point is 00:51:59 He had like a tight end centric offense with two of them. Of course, he engineers the Harold Fanon rookie year breakout last year. I was on David and Joku because of Tommy Reese, which is like huge egg on my face, obviously. just was not the tight end I expected. So yeah, I think Pitts is going to play a lot is like the bottom line. And that's like the biggest concern with him always is just what will the overall role in route share look like. I think it'll be good this year with Tommy Reese. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:33 So I think he's totally viable where he's going at his ADP. I think he's a totally fine kind of upside shot to take. Of course, yeah, the splits with Drake London are. really rough. Especially in the intermediate areas, he basically wasn't used between 5 and 15 yards downfield when London was active last year. His first read target rate was like 11%. And the games London missed, it went up to like 30% just in those intermediate areas.
Starting point is 00:53:00 So I do think you can argue that they're a little redundant in how they've been used in the past. But I do have some trust in Reese to kind of figure out roles that work for both London and Pitts just because of the history of him elevating tight-end production. For me, this, like looking at ADP right here, and I can't believe that Sam Leporta is currently showing up as one spot below Pitts, but with those two guys there at Pick 96 and pick 97, and you're just telling me you can have one of Kyle Pitts or Sam Leporta in round eight of every draft, that's what makes it so much hard for me to, harder for me to draft
Starting point is 00:53:39 to tight end early. Like if I know that Pitts or La Porter are there in round eight, I just want to draft wide receivers in rounds three and four. I mean, I would extend it to me to Kelsey at 120, Kittle at 123, likely at 130. I like those ADPs too. You got a lot of options there. I don't know what the deal is.
Starting point is 00:54:03 I feel like an idiot for thinking tight end is deep. Every time in the history of tight ends we've ever said tight end, deep. It's never deep. It always sucks. But I don't know. It sure looks deep. It does, right? It's weird. Okay. Unfortunately, I'm out of time. We're going to run through the news and notes real quick. I think probably on Monday when we're
Starting point is 00:54:23 back, we'll have to spend a little more time on it. But Zach Charbonnet was at practice, I think two days ago, maybe yesterday and beaten expectations a little bit, but not doing that much. I think he was like doing high knees. Yeah. On the sideline for 15 minutes. minutes.
Starting point is 00:54:39 Okay, but, you know, I think people were surprised to see Charbonate participating in me. I think the thing that surprised me more was that they were saying, and this may not matter. It's OTAs. But it sounded like the rotation at running back was Holani first, Price second, and Emmanuel Wilson third. And when I've seen people speculating on Zach Sharbonay not getting healthy, it's been people drafting Emmanuel Wilson in the double-digit rounds because he's going. And I'm not so sure that Emmanuel Wilson has a role, even if. Zach Charminate still hurt. Patch Mahomes got a two-year contract extension.
Starting point is 00:55:13 He's very wealthy. Teterola McMillan has foot soreness, hopes to be ready for training camp. Chris Olave is still recovering from a blood clot that he had in week 18. I did not like hearing that. Yeah, me either. Malik Neighbors is, this was the most optimistic we've heard the Giants on Neighbors in a while. He's making good progress, apparently. They're still hopeful he's going to be ready for week one.
Starting point is 00:55:37 We talked about McLaurin, but according to the United, the athletic, he'll have a more varied route tree, which that's good. That's what we want to see. Alec Pierce, I already mentioned, he had ankle surgery. He could be back late in training camp. Tucker Kraft expects to play in week one and to be full go.
Starting point is 00:55:52 Lamar Jackson is loving the new offense so far for offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. He thinks it's going to be explosive and creative. The Dolphins gave center Aaron Brewer a three-year extension. He's one of the highest paid centers in football now. Denzel Boston, a rookie wide receiver for the Brown's second round
Starting point is 00:56:09 picked. It's a conception around one, Boston around two. Not to say conception hasn't done well, but Boston's getting a lot of buzz right now. And Seattle reporter John Boyle expects a bigger role for Rashid Shahid. Ryan, thank you so much for coming on. Last question. How, on a scale of zero to ten, zero is not similar at all. Ten was the exact same show.
Starting point is 00:56:30 Where would you rank this episode compared to the one, the Beyond the Box score episode you did, just in terms of the content covered? Oh yeah, not very similar at all Probably like a one or a two So yeah I think I think we nailed it Well we only went 10% as long So we couldn't get to near as much
Starting point is 00:56:48 Yes Did you have to like cancel any appointments For Beyond the Box score? No Whenever I'm going on Beyond the Box score I just assume it will be two to three hours And if it's less than that Okay, it's a surprise
Starting point is 00:57:02 And I have more time to do other things with my day But that's how long the block is on the calendar. We're getting you out early. Go do all the fun stuff and watch some NBA highlight, and NHL highlights while you're at in World Cup today. All right, USA, tomorrow night.
Starting point is 00:57:17 Let's go. And we'll talk to you on Monday on tennis football today. See you. Podcasts. Now streaming on Paramount Plus. Beth and Rip are back in Dutton Ranch. This life here is going to work. Is it?
Starting point is 00:57:40 We'll make it work. Starring Kelly Riley. is a beautiful thing, let only if it survives. Cole Houser. What's going to work? Ed Harris. Family is the only thing we're fighting for. And Annette Benning.
Starting point is 00:57:53 I can make this a lot harder for all y'all. And peace will have to wait. Dunn Ranch. New series now streaming on Paramount Plus.

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