Fantasy Football Today - Is Stefon Diggs a Steal? Broncos Backfield Concerns, Season Props, & More! (07/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Join us as we dive into the latest training camp storylines with 'Buy or Sell': Is Stefon Diggs (0:45) a steal? Could Brandon Aiyuk (3:30) be on the move? What's the scoop on the Broncos' backfield? (7:01) Plus, the guys play a thrilling round of (12:00) Fantasy Feud. Then, we analyze season props (20:20) that could impact fantasy football, including Bijan Robinson's rushing yards total, Trevor Lawrence's (23:20) passing touchdown count, and Anthony Richardson's (30:02) rushing touchdown total. Stay tuned for rankings debates (31:20) featuring De'Von Achane, Michael Pittman Jr., Trey McBride, and more, followed by answers to your (41:00) #AskFFT questions!... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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So if you need some help, you have come to the right place. I'm Adam Azer, welcoming you to Fantasy Football Today. And here are my three fantasy football friends. Hopefully not my only three fantasy football friends, but welcome to the show. Heath Cummings, you have the first overall pick in a half PPR draft. Who are you taking? I'm taking Christian McCaffrey and you can give me any PPR setting you want. It's going to be Christian McCaffrey. Jamie Eisenberg, you're up. You have the second pick in a half PPR draft. Who are you taking? I just traded to Dave. Oh, wow. I got it. Congratulations. What did I give up for him? Nothing.

Just wanted to be nice to you. See, you're doing that because you know you're going to be able to get a stud wide receiver at number three. I will take C.D. Lamb because I think he's got a chance to match what he did last year. Okay, Jamie, who should Dave take with the third pick that he also has at this scenario? No, no. I have the third pick now. I'm going to take Tyreek Hill.

Tyreek Hill. Okay. But Cavre, Lamb, Tyreek Hill. There, we just did a mock draft for you. Thanks for watching, everybody. We'll talk to you next time. It's good that you rehearsed that for the 10 minutes before we came on air. That was good.

Completely threw me off. Anyway, we're going to talk about some big storylines going into training camp. And let's start with the Texans. They opened up camp last week. They were the first team to do so. And so far, the early reports are pretty good. The C.J. Stroud to Stephon Diggs connection is real. So we'll do some buy or sell.

Buy or sell. Stephon Diggs is a steal. I'm going to go to Dave first on this one. He's a steal at wide receiver 23 in average draft position. I'm not ready to say that he's a steal, guys. I know that he's going to be a big-time part of this offense, but they've got two other wide receivers that were big-time parts in the offense. And I don't see Nico Collins and Tank Dell taking a big back seat to Stephon Diggs.

I think he's going to play in the slot a lot, and I think he's going to be the money-down receiver. So third downs, that's where he's going to get into the mix. Maybe between six and seven targets per game for Stephon Diggs. It's not a role we're used to seeing from him, but I think that downgrade is coming because it's such a crowded receiving core from C.J. Stroud and Houston. I've got a rule with older wide receivers,

and Stephon Diggs is going to turn 31 this year, so in football terms, he's older. If they show you that they've lost a step, believe them. Diggs in the second half of last season averaging 44 receiving yards per game, even worse than that in the two playoff games. He showed us, I believe him. He's not a steal. He's a bust at wide receiver 23. There's just so many receivers in that range, you know, from like wide receiver 17, 18 to almost like wide receiver 32, 33. So does he belong in that group? Absolutely. Should he be at that spot?

Probably not. I would certainly prefer Nico Collins and Tank Dell if we're talking about the draft capital for those guys, even at the cost of what Collins is going to require you drafting him at. But I think the positives for Stephon Diggs is he's hopefully motivated again. And we saw last year, disgruntled, unhappy. The targets were still there at the end of the season. Heath, you mentioned that age. It's not a good sign when wide receivers hit 30. It's certainly not great when they're

31 plus, but Diggs will still return some good value. So if you get him at the right cost, perfect. If you're spending the 23rd receiver, 24th receiver off the board, I don't want to draft him at that spot. Guys, check out this nickname I just came up with. Just now, I didn't rehearse it.

The Texans 10. There is a stretch of 10 picks in CBS ADP with three Texans. Stroud, Dell, and Diggs. Most people just go Texans trio, but way to complicate it. Maybe that might be better. All right. Brandon Ayuk has

formally requested a trade. I don't know why I wrote that out when I knew I wouldn't be able to say it right, but he wants a trade, Brandon Ayuk. Buy or sell that Ayuk or Debo Samuel will be traded before the season starts. Jamie? I'm going to sell that. I don't think the 49ers want to put themselves in a situation where they're not going to be a Super Bowl contender. And you take Brandon Ayuk off the roster, certainly Debo Samuel off the roster. They're not a Super Bowl contender anymore, unless they just get an overwhelming offer in return. But what team is going to do that while still throwing in draft

capital? So I would expect both these guys to be there. It's a downgrade for all of them across the board because one guy gets eliminated, George Kittle, one of these receivers, even Ricky Pearsall, they all benefit. But as long as they're there, they're still very, very good. But the other one would be elite if one was traded, but I don't expect them to go. So Brandon Ayuk last year, 16.2 PPR points per game. When he was on the field for 12 games with Debo and Kittle, his average went up. It was 17.1. He was awesome then. Debo Samuel, 17 PPR points per game. When he was on the field with Ayuk and Kittle, his average went down just a little bit. Listen, this offense is awesome. These guys are going to be studs. The only way I see one of them getting

traded is if the 49ers somehow stink this year and they can just pawn one off for a draft pick to a contender. I don't see that happening. They're going to be 49ers. It's definitely not happening before the season. We've seen this recipe with lots of teams in the past. When you have the cheap quarterback like they do, then you can afford to spend a lot on the weapons. We saw Tyreek Hill, once Patrick Mahomes started making a lot of money, they had to let him go. The Giants, once Daniel Jones starts making a lot of money, not quite the same thing. Saquon Barkley has to go away to the Eagles.

So, yeah, you can still afford to pay both these guys. And like Jamie said, they're trying to win a Super Bowl. All right, let's talk about a rookie running back coming off a torn ACL, Jonathan Brooks for the Carolina Panthers. He's going to open training camp on the non-football injury list. Buy or sell, Heath, I'm going to give this one to you to start. Jonathan Brooks will be a top 12 running back in the second half of the season. I like it.

I'm going to buy it. I think he was clearly the most talented running back in this class. The fact that the Carolina Panthers were willing to use almost a first-round pick on him when they knew that he wouldn't be ready tells me they believe the same thing. We saw with Brees Hall last week. It took, which took what four weeks and he was just about the same guy Brooks still just 20 years old I'll buy it we don't know if he's going to be ready in time for the second half of the season I hope he is but the fact that he's not even on the list to begin the year that's problematic and then this isn't a great offense it's going to be better than it was

last year but the Panthers offense isn't going to be dynamic It's going to be better than it was last year. But the Panthers' offense isn't going to be dynamic. Brooks, I think, could be slowly acclimated in. If you had told me he's going to be a top-12 running back for like the last six weeks of the season, maybe a hero in the fantasy postseason, I might buy that. But the full second half of the year, no way. All right, sorry, Debbie Downer.

But I'm going to take the upside on Jonathan Brooks. Yes, I think he's going to be a top-12 running back in the second half of the season. This offense is going to be dramatically better, especially with Dave Canales calling plays. We saw what he did for Rashad White last year. They beefed up the offensive line. We're going to see a better Bryce Young, but that doesn't matter.

What Brooks is going to do, like you said, he's the most talented running back in this class. They targeted him for a reason. Look what they have on their team. They made a huge mistake on Miles Sanders last year. Chuba Hubbard's just a guy. Jonathan Brooks is going to dominate targets, hopefully early on. He's going to play, Dave.

I don't know what you're talking about not going to be ready. He's got it. He's on, hopefully early on. He's going to play, Dave. I don't know what you're talking about. I'm not going to be ready for the second half. He's on the NFI list. He's going to be able to go. I hope so. He's going to be there week one. The second half of the season, though, he's going to be a superstar. Alright, listen. We saw some speculation recently out of Denver that Javante Williams and Samaje Pirine

could be battling for a roster spot. Let's talk about this Broncos backfield. And it just hasn't been a good offseason in terms of news, in terms of reports for Javante Williams. Buy or sell, Javante Williams should not be the first Broncos running back drafted in fantasy leagues. We're saying this now. This is late July.

I think he should be. So I'll buy that he should be the first running back off the board. But it's going to be in round eight or later. i don't feel good about this backfield at all and earlier on our podcast i mentioned well maybe he'll be the third down guy i looked at it last year he didn't even play 50 third down snaps it was some ajay pirine dominating in that role so i'm not sure what role he's going to get if they don't like him as a first and second down running back but the problem is that i think there's going to be too many runners in a bad offense, questionable offensive line. I kind of want to pass on all of them. If I had to take one for now, it's Javante. Two weeks from now, it might be McLaughlin. Two weeks after that,

it might be Estimé. So I think Javante Williams should not be the first running back selected. I will sell it. Might be a double negative, but I will sell that. I think he should be, but he just shouldn't be selected that much higher than Jaleel McLaughlin and maybe Audrick Estimé, maybe Samaj. The guy I don't think is probably going to matter here is Samaj AP Ryan. I hope they get rid of one of them, and I really hope it's Javante, because the guys that are on the roster, there's one thing in common for everybody else but Javante. Sean Payton selected or signed everybody else, and Javante he inherited. Let him go get an opportunity to play someplace else. I think he still has an opportunity to be a good,

if not very good, fantasy running back in the right situation. Did he lose a step last year? Yes, he was coming back from an ACL tear. Two years removed from the ACL is when we typically see these guys pop off, unless you're Brees Hall. I think we'll see Javante, if he gets released or maybe a team gives up a seventh-round pick, additional sixth-round pick to go acquire him, Dallas, then we can see an opportunity for Javante to maybe still be fantasy-relevant. But I'm going to let somebody else take Javante Williams.

The guy that I want is Julio McLaughlin. I think he's going to be the best running back in Denver this year. One more backfield to talk about is the Green Bay Packers and rookie running back Marshawn Lloyd. So we saw a report that Lloyd would have an early impact, an early role for the Packers. He's currently a little banged up right now. But here's my buy or sell.

Jamie, I'll start it with you. Buy or sell. Marshawn Lloyd will make Josh Jacobs a bust as a round three pick. If Lloyd is healthy, the answer is yes. If he's dealing with this hip injury that's going to keep him sidelined for a while, then clearly the answer is no. But you hear everything coming out of Green Bay. And I wonder if they knew they were going to get Marshawn Lloyd. Would they have signed

Josh Jacobs or just played out the string with Aaron Jones for another year? Because they love him. Everything that comes out of either LaFleur's mouth, the offense coordinator's mouth, they just keep gushing and glowing about Marshawn Lloyd. So I think what we're going to see with Jacobs is a little bit of a shared situation. Should you draft him as a starting fantasy running back? 100%. Is he going to produce at a good enough level that you can start him week in, week out without hesitation? Sure. But is he going to live up to maybe the draft hype and the draft capital they have to spend on him now? I'm a little bit concerned. So he's a late third round, early fourth round pick for me, unless of course Lloyd is injured. But if Lloyd's good to go, I'm probably not drafting Josh Jacobs.

This third round question kind of highlights the split that we have in ADP right now. If we're talking about the ADP we've seen all summer on some of the best ball sites, well, there's maybe five running backs going in the first three rounds. He'd absolutely be a bust there. If you're looking at CBS ADP and he's RB 13, 14 off the board in the third round, I think that's fine. It's just about the value he's going to provide. I like him.

I think that he could be the lead running back for Green Bay. We heard Matt LaFleur talk about him as a heavy usage running back and a workload guy. He's been successful any time he's had 15-plus touches in a game, and we've seen it with Matt LaFleur. Five years as the coach and the play caller in Green Bay, 83 games. 67 out of 83 games, at least one running back has had at least 15 touches, and you can add seven more times when it's happened,

two running backs can get there. And there might be some games this year where both Lloyd and Jacobs have 15 plus touches in the game but I think Jacobs is going to be the lead guy I'm excited about him I'm looking at him with the top 30 yeah I don't think anybody's questioning he's going to be the lead guy it's just a matter of how much will Lloyd take away from it and then the thing that'll make you vomit is if AJ Dillon's going to get work also because they brought him back clearly for a reason as well so it could be a crowded backfield, but yeah, nobody's questioning Jacobs being the lead guy. Oh, imagine if A.J. Dillon were the goal line guy. That would be really bad for fantasy.

Was last year. I mean, he was, for some reason, no, he was last year. So hopefully he's just not really that involved. Sorry to be negative there about A.J. Dillon. All right, up next, we got some fun and games. We got Fantasy Feud coming up on fantasy football today stick around miller light the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time when miller light set out to brew a light beer they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can

they chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer your game time tastes like miller time learn more at miller light.ca. Must be legal drinking age. Welcome back, everybody. We want some competition on fantasy football today, hopefully friendly competition. So let's compete. It is time now for Fantasy Feud, and we're going to pair up Jamie and Dave. All right, you guys are not paired up, actually head to head. Jamie versus Dave in our first Fantasy Feud battle. And here we go. The top six answers are on the board. Among running backs with 100 or more carries last season, top six answers on the board.

I'm looking for our yards per carry leaders. Dave. Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey is the number two answer. Jamie, you can guess for number one. Devon Achan. Devon Achan is number one. Very good. Would you like to pass or play, Jamie?

Oh, it's always more fun to pass. It's way more fun to pass. I don't blame you one bit for doing it. Brees Hall. Brees Hall was not. No. Brees Hall was not. That's too bad. He was awesome last year in fantasy. Let's go with B. John

Robinson. Also incorrect. So far we have A. Chan and McCaffrey. Four answers remaining. Running backs with 100 more carries. The YPC leaders. Jamie's got a chance to steal if Dave gets one more wrong. Go ahead, Dave. Jameer Gibbs.

Jameer Gibbs is answer number four. Congratulations. Okay. That means I have to keep playing. Thatameer Gibbs. Jameer Gibbs is answer number four. Congratulations. Okay, that means I have to keep playing. That stinks. No, there's no way I can go. Kyron Williams. Kyron Williams, very good. Number five. Great, I'm still playing. Two more.

Raheem Mostert. Raheem Mostert is incorrect. I'm crushed. There are two answers so far. We have A-Chan, McCaffrey, Gibbs, and Kyron Williams. So wait, if he doesn't get this, I win, right? Even though I got the number one guy? Yep.

Yes, that's how it works. Oh, that's excellent. James Conner. Oh, that was a good one. He's number six. I put him on there on purpose. I didn't think anyone was gonna get James Conner. Five yards per kick, that's awesome. And there's J put him on there on purpose. I didn't think anyone was going to get James Conner. Five yards per game. That's awesome.

And there's Jalen Warren on there. My guy, how could I not have Jalen Warren? I know, I know. Well, it wouldn't have mattered. Jamie would have gotten James Conner. Anyway, Jamie, congratulations. You are the winner there. You take the first round. I'd like to thank the Academy. There you go. You don't get to make

the speech yet. You have to win one more. We're going to go Dave versus Heath on this one, our next category. Among wide receivers with 50 or more targets, top six answers are on the board again. I'm looking for the leaders in fantasy points per target. Dave. Dave. C.D. Lamb.

Heath. He's number five Nico Collins Number two I don't think you have to say your name after he's already done it Dan Pass or play I'll play So far we have Nico and Lamb

We need four more the leaders in fantasy points per target Debo Samuel number one very good Tank Dell I think he was seven so that's incorrect

so it counts is what you're saying top six or top seven AJ Brown AJ Brown is incorrect Top six are on the board. Top seven. A.J. Brown. A.J. Brown is incorrect. Another good guess, though. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Do I get a bonus guess for having so many good guesses that were wrong? Maybe. If you get one more good guess that's wrong, I might give you a bonus. But so far, you have two strikes. So far, you've gotten Debo, Nico, and Lamb, and we have three more up there. We're looking for fantasy points per target among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. Tyreek Hill.

He's number six. Two are left on the board. Yes. George Pickens. Yeah, that was a good guess, but I'm not going to give you a bonus guess. That wouldn't be fair. So three good guesses, though.

Yes. Okay, I'll take it. You win the good guess award. Actually, five good guesses. Six, because you got three right. All right, Dave, you are up. You got your chance to steal. So far, Debo Samuel, number one.

Nico Collins, number two. Lamb, five. Hill, number six. We need three or four fantasy points per target last year. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Keenan Allen because he had so many targets last year.

It's not necessarily good for this game. You want lower targets. You are incorrect. Was Jordan Addison one of them? No. I was debating between IU IU and Keenan Allen. I went with the old guy. That's what you get for going with the old guy.

But I want you to look at the list, Dave, while you're ranting and look at these names. And then there's Jaden Reed on there. And what does that mean to you as we evaluate going into this year? Rushing touchdown. Yeah, there was a lot of rushing touchdowns for Jaden Reed last year, and I love his versatility in the Green Bay offense and all the positivity about Christian Watson is going to drive down his value. And if it continues to happen going into the preseason,

I'm going to draft a lot of Jaden Reed. I think he's really talented, great second-year receiver. I think the Packers offense is going to be pretty good. I think he continues to have a versatile role in that offense. It's going to be fascinating. Adam and I, we were texting about it this weekend, what they do in two receiver sets and three receiver sets and who's not on the field. Because last year, the majority of their two receiver sets, when Christian Watson was healthy, it was Romeo Dobbs and somebody else. And so he's the one that feels like he's just getting completely overlooked. Now he was very touchdown dependent last year, but he's going to be on the field a lot, which

gives him a little bit of a boost. So with Dontavion Wicks in the mix and then with Watson being healthy. Sounded fun. Yes. On purpose. And then with Watson being healthy with the, you know, fixing the hamstring injury there, it's going to be fascinating to see how all three of those guys, all four of those guys, excuse me, get used. Yeah. Because Reid was rarely on the field in three receiver sets and the Packers don't really run three receiver sets all that much in comparison to the rest of the league. They're about 20th in that rate. All right, so this is for the championship.

All we know so far is that Dave is definitely not going to win. Jamie won. Heath won. Here we go for the championship. Oh, man, I think this is going to be pretty easy for you, I think. But I am looking for the top six answers are on the board. After McCaffrey and Brees Hall are off the board, ADP leaders in our PPR ADP. Jamie.

Go ahead, Jamie. Dijon Robinson. Number two answer, which means he's number four overall. So we're looking for three through eight in ADP. Heath. Yeah. CD Lam. Yeah, he's the number one answer, number three overall.

So we need the next four after Lam and Bijan. Pass or play? I'll play. All right, play. Saquon Barkley. Yeah, he's on there. He's number seven. Tyreek Hill correct

good guess Joe no Jonathan Taylor wow very good you only have to get one more here with three guesses left this is going to be a what a disaster

Jamar Chase. Heath Cummings, congratulations. You got them all. You know, I thought I might be able to stump you guys with Barkley and Taylor, but when we did the show earlier this morning, you already knew Barkley was that high. Heath, what's your reaction to this ADP? So it's McCaffrey, Hall, and then these six. I think, like, obviously our first takeaway

is that we don't want to take Saquon Barkley seventh overall. But for me, and the only reason I didn't guess Justin Jefferson is because I remember he was behind Saquon Barkley when we talked earlier today. The fact that Jamar Chase is wide receiver three is really interesting over Amon Ross St. Brown, over Justin Jefferson. I think it's good news today, though. You know, Joe Burrow, no issues, healthy, ready to go. The Higgins uncertainty, you know, I know he's there and obviously going to play. But, you know,

people, I think, are still looking at T. Higgins as maybe not being a factor. He's going to be a factor. But Chase, look, he's got an opportunity to have a monster season. So I get it. I actually heard the question. I thought it was running backs. So that's why I said B's on over C.D. Lamb. But congratulations. Thanks. All right. Well, you know, Jamie, you got to listen.

What can I tell you here? More to come on Fantasy Football today. Will Justin Jefferson catch eight touchdowns? Will Keon Coleman catch five touchdowns? We're going to look at some player props and guess over or under when we come back. Metro links and cross links are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe.

Some player prop over-unders right now on Fantasy Football today. Let's get right into it. Some season totals. We're going to start with Bijan Robinson, who is one of the first picks of Fantasy. Over. Sorry. He had 976 last year. So we're just asking, can he do better than he did last year?

Would anybody take the under here? No, but I think that this highlights something. When we go through these, I'm probably going to have a higher projection on all these guys. But these don't void out if they get hurt. So it's going to be lower than what they'd be projected for, for 17 games. Cause you've got to factor in the possibility. They might miss two or three or 16 over. How many games will it take B.

John Robinson? I think there were 15 running backs who got to this number, including him nine 76 last year. How many games will it take B. John Robinson? If I said he were going to miss three games, would you take the over or the under? So Arthur Smith is gone, right? From what I've heard, yeah.

Two games. He's going to be over. Okay. Week three. Alright. Next up, how about rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy? Dave, I'll start with you. Three and a half receiving touchdowns for Worthy, over or under? Mahomes has been the starting quarterback in Kansas City for six seasons.

Twelve wide receivers have scored at least four touchdowns over that time. Xavier Worthy is a big play waiting to happen. Somebody that you want to have on your fantasy bench to begin the season. I will take the over that he will score at least four receiving touchdowns. I've got him over, but this one makes me a lot more nervous because you basically said two receivers per year score at least an average of six touchdowns. It might be Marquise Brown and Rashi Rice.

He might not be playing more than 50% of the snaps the first half of the year. I'll go over, but reluctantly. I think if you buy into the over, you do it now before there's a Rice suspension because this number may jump if Rice is suspended. So you want to get in on the number now. Devon Achan, 750 and a half rushing yards. He

had 751 rushing yards against the Denver Broncos in one game last year. Over, I think, over under this total here. Dave, I'll start with you again for Achan. He had 800 rushing yards in 11 games last year, and he missed parts of some of those games.

And I know that he's going to split reps. There's going to be multiple running backs at all times in this Dolphins backfield. And I know that he's going to be more involved in the passing game. But I can't resist this over. I think that number is so low, and his explosiveness is so good, that it just makes sense that he could repeat 800 as a floor for rushing yards in 2024. These are just designed to make me more and more nervous as we go. I'll go over, barely.

I'll take the under just with the injury risk. So I think when he's on the field, he's going to be amazing, and he's going to win a lot of people fantasy weeks, but he's going to miss some time. I think that's just the nature of, I think, how he plays. So I'll take the under with the injury track record here. Okay, later in the show, we're going to have rankings disputes, and Trevor Lawrence is going to be, I think, on that list. So, Heath, I know you say that they're making you more nervous.

Maybe this one will make you a little bit less nervous. 21-and-a-half touchdown passes for Trevor Lawrence. Heath, over or under? I will go with the over on this one. Calvin Ridley's not there anymore, so he won't be standing out of bounds whenever Lawrence throws in the way. He had some terribly bad luck last year. And I do think there's reason to be concerned if Trevor Lawrence is ever going to justify where he was drafted in the NFL draft. And paid. Right, and just recently paid. But 21.5 passing touchdowns is way too low. I think he can go over 21 and a half, but I wouldn't take it if it was like 23 and a half. And this isn't somebody that I would profile as a must-start fantasy quarterback.

I'm concerned about the receiving core. I'm concerned about anybody stepping up and being the go-to guy like Calvin Ridley sort of was at times last year. Expecting him to get around 23, 24 touchdowns, I don't think that that's that much, but I think there's a lot of quarterbacks that'll blow that out of the water. Yeah, I mean, again, just talking about his prop, he should go over this, you know, I think Brian Thomas will be a fun addition. So we'll see if he can step into Calvin Ridley's role. Gabe Davis can have a four touchdown game by himself. We've seen that in his, you know, profile. So yes, he should go over this number. I don't think, you know, the fantasy conversation is, is he a must-start guy? No, but I think we're going to see the best of Trevor

Lawrence this year. Keon Coleman's up next. We did Xavier Worthy. Jamie, Xavier Worthy's number was at three and a half receiving touchdowns. Keon Coleman's is at four and a half receiving touchdowns. Are you over or are you under on that? And your thoughts on Coleman having a higher expectation for touchdowns, I guess, than

Worthy? Yeah, I would say six touchdowns is in the realm of possibility for Coleman. You know, we're going to see how the Bills use Dalton Kincaid, who I think is going to be the best pass catcher for this team. Curtis Samuel comes with the knowledge and history with Joe Brady. Khalil Shakir is the only guy who's caught passes from Josh Allen that's on the current receiving core. And then Chase Claypool, no. But in any event, I think for Coleman, his upside and opportunity, we'll see it in the back half of the season. I think we could see a four or five touchdown push,

like we saw from Zay Flowers last year, for example. Rook, you got an opportunity because of injury, but also picking up the system. So Coleman is a guy that you want to take as a fourth fantasy option, and five to six touchdowns, I think, is well within reach. The problem is that you're going to have to be patient with him, and if he gets off to a slow start, fantasy managers are going to cut him. And so maybe the best plan of attack with Coleman isn't to draft him

in redraft leagues, but it's to wait for him to get cut from the team that does take him and then pick him up off the waiver wire for that big second half. I think five touchdowns is in play. Do you know, Heath, that once upon a time that somebody drafted a high-profile rookie wide receiver and then dropped him for, I think it was Peyyton barbara from that mistake would you ever do that it might have been peyton barber it was justin jefferson

that got dropped yeah i'm gonna drop below on the under for this one this one's almost right at my projection i think there's a lot more risk than just injury with keon coleman he may not be one of the guys on the field and two wide receiver sets at the start of the year they may not throw a whole lot of touchdowns because they're going to run so much in the red zone. I'll go under. Let's talk about Derrick Henry, 950.5 rushing yards. I only want to hear from Dave and Heath for the rest of the show. Over, under.

Derrick Henry's rushing yards, Heath. I will go under. That's about 65 yards under what my projection is for him. We're going to see Lamar Jackson handle 30% of the rush attempts in Baltimore. The way that Derrick Henry makes me look dumb for calling him a bust this year is by scoring 20 rushing touchdowns, not by rushing for 2,000 yards. I don't want to bet on that over on a 30-year-old running back's yardage number. Yeah, I agree 100%.

And this isn't to slight Derrick Henry as a fantasy prospect because the potential is there for him to get those 20 touchdowns. I do think that that is the tippy top of a ceiling. But if I had to put some money on this, I would take the under just because he's 30, just because we've seen him slow down a little bit. The Ravens have no reason to lay out a ton of carries on him in September and October. I still like him in fantasy. I'm still going to draft him, but I would take the under on this prop. I'll go over just because I'm not betting against the alien. I mean, Adam on our podcast laid out what he eats on a daily basis, and that's 300 yards of chicken breast based on how he's going to operate every day.

So I think this projection is definitely close to accurate, 1,200-plus yards. I think it's certainly within reach. The touchdowns, I think, are is definitely close to accurate, you know, 1,200-plus yards. I think it's certainly within reach. The touchdowns, I think, are a little low. I guess we would all take the over on the touchdowns here if that was the number. But, yeah, I think he's going to be a 1,000-plus-yard rusher. I don't think you have to worry about Derrick Henry at this point anymore. I can't do it anymore. I can't just say he's going to get hurt or struggle.

He just never does. Yeah, I didn't hear that last part. All right, so Justin Jefferson is up next. Justin Jefferson over or under 7.5 receiving touchdowns. In his career, he's been at 7, 10, 8 in three full seasons, and then five touchdowns last year in only 10 games, one of those games he barely played. But we wouldn't even be questioning this if Kirk Cousins were the quarterback.

Jamie, 7.5 receiving touchdown touchdowns for Jefferson over or under? I'll go under, but just slightly. I think seven touchdowns is where he ends up. This is going to be a guy that's going to dominate in terms of his catches and his yards. And we have two things that play here. One, who's going to be the quarterback for the majority of the season? Sam Donald most likely going to start the season. And then J.J. McCarthy hopefully takes over and takes over to a level that we know can support a player like this. But TJ Hockinson may miss the majority of the year, if not certainly the first half of the season, coming back from his knee injury. And we don't know exactly what's happening with Jordan Addison,

if he's going to be suspended, not by just the NFL, but also the team, based on what some of the conversation has been in Minnesota for the driving incident that he had. So Jefferson's going to be force-fed targets, and hopefully they lead to some end zone opportunities that he hasn't seen before in the past. So these numbers, I think, are fairly accurate from 100-plus catches, got a chance for 1,500-plus yards, but seven touchdowns is where I would settle on him from the projection table. I love that the projection only has him not catching 50 of his targets this year. That means that he's just going to be an absolute monster when it

comes to those catches, and the yards will come with it. But I agree. I think that asking him to get eight, nine, ten touchdowns might be a lot, given the quarterbacks that he has in Minnesota. I will go under whether it's Sam Darnold or it's the rookie, both of those things you would project for a very low touchdown rate under on seven and a half. All right. We're just going to go rapid fire here.

I'll give you one analyst, the over under here and Dave, I'll start with you on Jaden Daniels rushing yard. I mean, they must not think he's going to play every game. 525 and a half rushing yards. Over-under for Jaden Daniels. It almost feels like they've designed that line to make you take the over. And I kind of want to take the over because he's such a great rushing threat. And he will make plays improvisationally in that commander's offense.

It's too low. I would take the over on that. Jamie, Aaron Rodgers, 26-and-a-half passing touchdowns. I'll take the under. 40-year-old guy coming off an Achilles injury with a very suspect receiving core behind Garrett Wilson right now. So I'll take the under on it. And Heath, Anthony Richardson, 7-and-a-half rushing touchdowns.

I will take the – oh, gosh. Stopped you in your track. That is the easy... Easy over if you told me that he was going to play even 15 games. I have very little confidence that he's going to play. I'll take the over. I'm going to be optimistic about Anthony Richardson. Do you think he plays 8 games?

Yes, over. If you think he plays 8 games, he's going over this. Alright, and that has been today's edition of Over, Under, or Ugh, gosh, as we just heard we got some rankings debates coming up stay tuned for that on fantasy football today with smart water's pure crisp taste there's nothing to overthink so while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is, it's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate.

Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. We are back here on Fantasy Football today, and I want to encourage everyone, if you're watching, to go check out our rankings, cbssports.com slash fantasy. You can see rankings for Dave, for Jamie, for Heath. You can see our consensus rankings, and that's available in non-PPR and full PPR.

Right now, we're going to take a look at some of the differences in the rankings among our analysts here. We'll do some rankings debates. We're going to start with the elites. Okay, so Christian McCaffrey is the number one player for all of you at running at any position, number one overall player. What do you do after that? You take the wide receiver or do you go with the running back? Well, Dave and Heath have Brees Hall and Bijan Robinson, not number two overall, not number

two overall, but ahead of some of those wide receivers, ahead of Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and Amonra St. Brown. But Jamie is very wide receiver heavy. He's going McCaffrey, and then he's going with, I think, five wide receivers before those next two running backs come off the board. So, Jamie, if I have that right, you go McCaffrey and then five wide receivers. Why are you more wide receiver heavy there than Dave and Heath are when it comes at least to Jefferson Chase and St. Brown?

I think there's a more likely chance that those five guys hit 20-plus PPR points. We saw it for four of them in terms of what they produced last year. Now you can chop it up with Justin Jefferson, what he did with Cousins, what he did with Mullens. He was actually over 20 PPR points per game with Mullins in the final four games. And for Jamar Chase, in his time, the nine games with Joe Burrow under center, he was over 20 PPR points per game for there. So I think all five of those guys have the chance to be north of 20 PPR points.

The same thing with McCaffrey. The other guys are going to be close. We saw it last year, Kyron Williams, the other running back, over 20 PPR points per game. Brees Hall was close. I think Bijan will get there. So just in terms of the pecking order for me of how it's going to play itself out, I think those receivers clearly are safer and they have, in my opinion, more upside. Plus, I also sort of frame it for what happens in round two. The way that my rankings go, when you get to the back half of

round two, I like running backs in that range. So for me, if I'm going hero RB, I like the running backs that are available there. Derrick Henry, James Cook, Isaiah Pacheco, those type of guys, as opposed to the receivers who I think are going to go in the beginning part of round two, which is the group of Marvin Harrison Jr., Drake London, Chris Olave. And if you don't really love Jalen Waddle or Mike Evans or those type of guys that are going to be there on a two, three swing, then I think those running backs are better. So I like to go receiver running back if I can't get McCaffrey first. If you're trying to plan ahead, I think going with a receiver after Christian McCaffrey makes plenty of sense because you're right. The running

backs, they're going to be late round two, early round three. They're going to be attractive. You're going to want to have those guys. But I think there's more upside for Brees Hall and B. John Robinson than there is for Justin. This sounds crazy, but Justin Jefferson with Sam Darnold, Jamar Chase, who hasn't been a mega stud every single year of his career, and there's been reasons for it. It's Burrow. And Amon Ross St. Brown, who's been really close. All these guys are going to be really close. But I think Brees Hall and Bijan Robinson do have that 20-point upside. That's what I'm looking for. I think Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb can get above 20. They've done it before. I think they can do

it again. It's not just the 20 for me. The reason we're taking a 27-year-old running back number one overall and just not even arguing about it is because he scores 25, 30 points per game. And I do see in Brees Hall and B. John Robinson the ability to go join McCaffrey, even if he doesn't fall off like those guys are just in his tier. You mentioned Kyron Williams, and he did that a lot based on the volume and the touchdowns, but we don't think he's as talented as Brees Hall and Bijan Robinson. He doesn't catch passes like those two do. I think they could have a Kyron Williams season only with 50 or 60 catches and a whole bunch of rushing efficiency. Yeah, and I just want to clarify, everyone has McCaffrey one, and everyone actually has CeeDee Lamb, too, as well, in the overall PPR rankings. Then number three for Jamie and Dave, Tyreek Hill.

For Heath, that's Brees Hall, followed by Bijan Robinson. So just check out the rankings, and you will see. Now check out the quarterback rankings. You're going to see Trevor Lawrence and Heath being the high guy on Lawrence at QB 12. Jamie has Lawrence at QB 15. Dave at QB 19. Heath, make the case for Trevor Lawrence in that top 12 range.

Well, I've always been a huge Trevor Lawrence guy. I've always been arguing through the history of our show. No, I think this just kind of illustrates that I trust the yardage a little bit more than I trust the touchdowns. The biggest knock on Trevor Lawrence, other than the fact that he's kind of had a hard time staying healthy, is his red zone passing. And last year, I think it was pretty much bad luck. 4,000 passing yards each of the past two seasons, and right around 300 to 350 rushing yards each of the past three seasons. So I do think that he could be one of those 4,300 guys, and he just has a little bit better touchdown luck, and he'll be more like the guy he was drafted to be last year. But even if

you agree with that, you don't have to draft him at 12. And that's why I think it's better to chase a little bit of upside at a rich and deep position like quarterback is. Jaden Daniels, Caleb Williams. I think Justin Herbert is being severely underrated right now. I think he can be good. Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, new situation. I think he can be good. I'm a little worried about that receiving core in Jacksonville. I'm a little bit worried about the team in general. And that makes me standoffish with Trevor Lawrence as someone who doesn't have that same type of upside as other quarterbacks that you can find in the double digit rounds. The thing that I love for Lawrence this year is, A, the lack of expectations.

Last year was way out of control. And I know I was guilty of that just based on how he finished the year before. But I think the offensive line improvements are going to be so huge for him. Getting Cam Robinson for a full season, a full year of Ezra Cleveland, a full year of Mitch Morris who they added in free agency this year. That blocking up front last year was absolutely horrible. And, yes, Calvin Ridley is going to be missed. Aside from the dropped touchdowns, he was a big playmaker for him.

We have to see what Brian Thomas can do. We have to see what Gabe Davis can do. But I know getting Christian Kirk back is going to be huge for him because as Lawrence was starting big playmaker for him. We have to see what Brian Thomas can do. We have to see what Gabe Davis can do. But I know getting Christian Kirk back is going to be huge for him because as Lawrence was starting to play better, Christian Kirk goes down, and then he finishes the season basing the toilet, does Lawrence. So he gets his security blanket back. I think we're going to see a better Trevor Lawrence overall.

So I do think it's going to be a big year for him. Next up, let's talk about Devon Achan. And the dispute really isn't among you three. You're lower on A-chan than basically America. So on behalf of America, I brought a prop for this, A-chan is a round two, three pick for America, and you guys are like 30th, 36th, something like that. So, you know, what's up, man? These colors don't run. HN does, whatever that means. But you guys are too low on the bot HN.

USA! I have a hard time just ranking HN because I do think that it's not hard to see the league winning upside. Generally, when running backs are as efficient as he was, well, nobody's ever as efficient as he was last year, but when you are that good, you usually get the ball more. That usually happens in the season, though, too, and I don't understand why at the end of the year when they had must-win games against the Bills and the Chiefs, he was touching the ball eight to ten times. They didn't use him like a full-time player last year unless it was a

blowout victory. So many of his fantasy points came in the game against the Broncos and a couple other massive wins and one 30-point loss, and then they go out and draft Jalen Wright also. I just don't think they view him as a full-time player. I love the efficiency. I love the talent. I hate that he's hurt a lot, and I hate that Mike McDaniel loves to use multiple running backs every week. Doesn't matter who's healthy, who's not healthy, and this is a deep running back room. It's one of the deepest and maybe one of the fastest, definitely one of the fastest, maybe one of the best running back rooms in the National Football League. Now, if you're going to project that Raheem Mostert gets hurt early and Jeff Wilson doesn't make the team and Jalen Wright's not ready, then of course Devon Achan's going to be an awesome fantasy pick.

But what if Raheem Mostert has a year like last year a chance reps are going to be limited I do want to look forward to seeing him as a pack And make him probably worth closer to a mid round three pick than a late round three pack So I think two things here one for America, which makes a ton of sense is Best ball He is the type of guy that will win you a tournament and you should absolutely be drafting him early because otherwise you're not going to get him. The negative for Devon Achan, Dave laid it out with Raheem Mostert and Jalen Wright and all these other guys.

The offensive line is going to take a step back. You know, Teron Armstead's got a hard time staying healthy. They lose Robert Hunt. They got a lot of guys that they're trying to mix and match and see if this whole thing will work together, and I trust Mike McDaniel. I trust the system. I trust Achan's talent.

But you got an injury-ridden running back in a crowded room behind a potentially bad offensive line. You are paying a premium price to draft Devon HN in redraft leagues. So if he hits, he's going to hit big. If he misses, he's going to miss big. And so you just have to understand that with what you're dealing with with Devon HN. Let's talk about Trey McBride

and finish up our rankings debates. He is tight end one for Heath. He is tight end three for Jamie. And McBride is tight end four for Dave. Dave, I will let you start and address it to Heath. Ask him, why does he have Trey McBride? Well, you know, don't just ask him. That's kind of my job. But talk about why does he have Trey McBride as tight end one? Why is he wrong? If Marvin Harrison wasn't on the Arizona Cardinals or if Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn't Marvin Harrison Jr., I might be right up there with Heath because I think Trey McBride is a good tight end who should get a lot of volume. Last year, last 10 games, Kyler Murray on the field for most of them. We're talking about 8.4

targets per game. He was the number one target there, but now it's Marvin Harrison Jr. in Arizona. I think he's NFL ready, and we saw it when DeAndre Hopkins was in Arizona. We saw it for spells when Marquise Brown was good with Arizona. Those guys were getting double-digit targets from Kyler Murray, and I don't think that that's going to leave as much for Trey McBride. Seven targets, seven and a half targets. If that's his average, he can still be really good. Top five, good. Just not tight end one good. There's two things that I really believe about fantasy football when I'm doing my projections. One, that targets and receptions are more predictable than touchdowns. Two, that there are tight end buckets.

Like, offenses have a certain number of targets they generally throw to their tight ends. Yes, I think McBride's targets come down a little bit, but most of what Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to take from are passes that were going to wide receivers last year. We could see 10 targets per game for Marvin Harrison and eight for Trey McBride, and it's not going to be that big a surprise.

All right. Well, at the very least we found out who the most patriotic person on this show is, but good job in the rankings dispute segment guys. And when we come back on fantasy football today, we've got your questions. We reached out to you.

We want to know what's on your mind. We'll read and answer your questions after this. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.

Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Let's get right into our first question here from Adam P.A. Martin. Who's the player in the top 180p that you have the least faith in reaching their mark? Keith Cummings. I will just, I'll be the guy with the pie on my face this year. Derek Henry. Same team, different position. Zay Flowers, he's going in round five.

It's too soon. I'll take the old man and Mike Evans. I don't think he's going to produce like he did a year ago. Would have been cool if you had taken another Raven, Jamie, but that's okay. Let's get our next question here. It is, who would you take at 1.1 if McCaffrey and Lamb

are unavailable? Jamie, you can start here. I will take Tyreek Hill if those two guys are off the board. I'm with you. I think Tyreek Hill is going to be worth that early round one pick. I want to know how these guys got these players before 1.01, but I will take Breesel. All right, next up, I believe we have a non-PPR question here. We don't get a ton of those.

Let's take a look at our next question. There it is. If you are a pick 11-12 in a non-PPR league, who are you taking in an ideal world? And Dave, you can start. I wish we had an ideal world. You're going to get at least one running back there. Saquon, Derrick Henry, they'll be there.

Maybe A.J. Brown and Munrah St. Brown in non-PPR. One of those two should be there as well. An ideal? In an ideal world, you'll get Christian McCaffrey. No, I'll say A.J. Brown and Jameer Gibbs. I think Dave's right in terms of the running backs. I think Gibbs might be gone. But you may see Taylor fall too.

So two running backs. All right, next up we have a question from Mets1989. I know it was like a good year for the Mets. Torn between going wide receiver or running back in the first round of a 14-team non... Another non-PPR! I have the fourth pick, and we start at three receivers and two running backs. Heath, what are you going here in the first round

of your 14-team non-PPR league? I am probably taking running back, running back here. In a non-PPR league, there's a massive difference in the value, so I go running back. Pick one of Christian McCaffrey, Brees Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs. One of those four. Yeah, I would go Taylor at four in non-PPR

over Gibbs. So he'd be the fourth pick for me. Good job, guys. Feel good about the show today? Except the host. Yeah, everything else was great. I like the hat, Adam. Well, thank you. Thank you all so much for watching. Special thanks to the guys there. Please donate to St. Jude as part of our draft-a-thon

and watch our podcast, listen to our podcast every day. Have a great day, everybody. For Jamie Isenberg, Dave Richard, and Heath Cummings, I'm Adam Azer, and we'll see you next time on Fantasy Football Today. Paramount Podcasts