Fantasy Football Today - Jalen Tolbert Profile: Draft Him! (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Adam Azer and Jacob Gibbs here on FFTN5. Jalen Tolbert, Cowboys rookie wide receiver.

Starting point is 00:00:24 He is going 152nd overall on Fantasy Pros. He is wide receiver 60. Right now, Jacob will tell you why he should be going as wide receiver 6 on FFT and 5. Okay, not wide receiver 6. Maybe that's CQLAM. I think actually you like LAM even better than that, if I recall.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Jalen Tolbert, you say don't leave your draft without Jalen Tolbert. That's right. leave your draft without Jalen Tolbert. That's right. Yeah, I've got Tolbert all the way up to wide receiver 41. He's almost the top 100 pick for me at this point. And if you listen to me talk about receivers, you know that I like guys who are able to demand targets at a high rate while running downfield-oriented route tree.

Starting point is 00:01:00 That's some of my favorite guys, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore, DJ Moore. It's just a high upside combination for fantasy, and it's exactly what Jalen Tolbert brings to the table. And I think it's exactly what Dak Prescott needs and what this offense needs. It's a combination that just can produce massive air yardage, massive receiving yardage totals. And, you know, uncoincidentally, Tolbert led the nation in both across the 2020 and 2021 seasons by like a massive margin. Only three players even topped 3000 air yards during those two years. Tolbert led all of college football with almost 3700 air yards. Wow. Yeah. No player had more receptions of 15 plus plus air yards, deep targets than Tolbert. I really think he is what Dak needs. We've seen, since Cal Moore took over

Starting point is 00:01:49 in Dallas, we've seen Dak's average depth of target spike. And that's kind of fallen off in the past couple of years. But I think that's mostly because he hasn't had the downfield weapons to target. It's been more focused on CeeDee Lamb and Dolan Schultz, Tony Pollard. And I think Tolbert's going to fill a really important role there. So you like to look at rookies, what they did in college, how the NFL routes, the routes you see in the NFL, how they did in those routes in college. What did you see with Tolbert?

Starting point is 00:02:18 Yeah, so Tolbert, like I just talked about on yesterday's episode, the volume hog rate, you can find all that information on Sportsline. There's an article out on the data that we have on the NFL players. And then on Friday, I've got an article that's going to be published going through the collegiate data. I'm just looking at the data we have on receivers who've been drafted in the past three years. And Tolbert is someone who really, really stood out when I was digging into that data. I didn't have any, you know, I love Jason Tolbert and everything. So I was excited to see where he stood out, but I really didn't expect what I found. So I evaluated just over a hundred single season data sets at the wide receiver position.

Starting point is 00:02:57 And only 15 times within that subset did wide receiver finish with a volume hog rate above 70%. And this is again, combining a player's target hog rate and air yardage hog rate which is just a representation of their ability to draw targets and air yards win on the field what amount of the total receiving volume did a player account for while on the field tober was one of just two players to hit that 70 mark twice and he topped out at 77 which is the fifth highest rate of any player. So just him and one of the guy hit it twice. The other area you really sit out and we already kind of alluded to this is this air yardage shares are just ridiculous.

Starting point is 00:03:33 And you know, this is exactly what we've seen with like Elijah Moore and some of these other really, really explosive fantasy receivers recently is when they're running these downfield routes and they're still able to draw a respectable target share. They just pile up crazy areas that other players aren't capable of. So Tolbert, T. Higgins, and Tylan Wallace are the only players to account for over 50% of their team's air yards win on the field in a season. Only four players and the five years of data that I've looked at,

Starting point is 00:03:59 Tolbert did it twice. He did it in two different seasons, which is just absurd. He finished with a 52% career air yardage share seasons which is just absurd um he finished with a 52 career area under chair which is the highest of any player i have the data for so truly a unique prospect in his ability to dominate volume and he's going into a situation here in dallas where there's really a ton of areas available if michael gallup's not gonna be ready to start the season amari cooper is vacated who who are these areas going to it seems to me Gallup's not going to be ready to start the season, Amari Cooper is vacated. Who, who are these areas going to? It seems to me like it's clearly going to be Tolbert and he, you know, has draft capital, has a skillset to capitalize on that situation.

Starting point is 00:04:32 So I, I think gear up now before the precinct starts and get as much Jan Tolbert as you can, because I think his ADP is only going to continue to rise. What about when Gallup comes back? I think when Gallup comes back, like if Tolbert hasn't already established himself, then it's possible that, you know,

Starting point is 00:04:48 there might be some downside here for sure. But I think even with Gallup healthy, he was projecting as the wide receiver three in this offense. And I think it's entirely possible that he'll, with a strong preseason, a strong start to the regular season, he's just going to take over. Michael Gallup's per route data has been really discouraging over the past

Starting point is 00:05:02 few years. I wrote several bust articles that have looked at target per route run rates and whose are the worst. And for two straight years, he's been featured in that article because what we saw early in Michael Gallup's career appears to be gone. I'm really not expecting much from Gallup at this point, especially with the injury. I think it would be really surprising if comes and takes away from tolbert but um i don't know i might just be too deep into the jen and tolbert tea leaves here reading all this college information just being too excited but i think everything lines up so well for him i could definitely see him being the most added player in fantasy after week one i don't know what his roster percentage will be i imagine it'll be about 35 40 on draft day

Starting point is 00:05:41 and then he could have a big week one i think think they play the Bucs in week one. That could be a shootout and could get added in a lot of leagues. Thanks to Jacob Gibbs. You can follow him at JAGibbs underscore 23. Thank you all for watching and listening. Talk to you later on Fantasy Football Today in five. We'll be right back.

Fantasy Football Today - Jalen Tolbert Profile: Draft Him! (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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