Fantasy Football Today - Jamey's BOLD PREDICTIONS for 2020 (6/1 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 1, 2020

We kick off Bold Predictions week with 5 bold predictions from Jamey Eisenberg. But first, Dave and Heath give a sneak preview of their bold predictions (1:06), including a nugget about Odell Beckham... Jr. ... Before Jamey's bold calls, we break down how Fantasy leagues should be set up amid the coronavirus pandemic in case a player tests positive for COVID-19 symptoms (3:53) ... Jamey's first bold prediction has to do with his sky-high expectations for Clyde Edwards-Helaire (13:07), but should you also draft Damien Williams if you pick Edwards-Helaire early? The next prediction is about the most valuable handcuff in 2020 (19:40). Then, which wide receiver is this year's Chris Godwin (28:05)? Jamey has a crazy take about Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (34:33) that'll make you want to draft Chubb over Josh Jacobs and Le'Veon Bell. And why is Tyrod Taylor one of Jamey's favorite quarterbacks to stream early in 2020 (40:20)? ... We finish with your Apple Podcast questions (47:29), with a Miles Sanders and Davante Adams trade question, a new running back draft strategy, and a rankings philosophy discussion. ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.comand tweet questions using #AskFFT. 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Watch our FFT Twitch poker tournament: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Christian McCaffrey's going to be the number one running back in 2019. Michael Thomas is going to break records with his reception total. And Lamar Jackson is going to break quarterback score. One of those may or may not have been right from last season when we were talking bowl predictions. And that's what we're doing today here for 2020. Talking some bowl predictions for this upcoming season. I'm Jamie Eisenberg.
Starting point is 00:01:43 That's Dave Richard. That's Heath Cummings. Adam Maz Azer is on sabbatical once again. He has left us, maybe for the better, maybe for the worse. We'll find out how this next 60 minutes goes. Thank you for taking some time to join us here. We know there's a lot going on in the world. Hopefully we can give you a little bit of a break from reality and talk some fantasy. And let's get bold. Before we get to some of the bold predictions, we're going to have a couple different conversations going on here, but I want to ask the guys.
Starting point is 00:02:08 Dave, I'll start with you. What's your definition of a bold prediction? Oh, boy. I feel like a bold prediction is something that is out of the ordinary where you really feel passionate or specific on, on a certain player and how they're going to do. And maybe you go a little overboard with it, but you just basically make it clear.
Starting point is 00:02:33 This is a guy who I think is going to be really, really good. Or this is a guy who I think is going to be really, really bad. And here's what I think they're going to do. So it's an out of the norm type of projection or estimation on how somebody is going to do. If you use bold predictions as something like based loosely off something like kind of what Dave was saying, like loosely off something that
Starting point is 00:02:56 you think is going to happen and then take it to an extreme, or is it something that you actually believe is going to come true? Yeah, I think if i would say more the former than the latter like i i have to be able to see how it's possible um i have to think that maybe like if it's something that's in my projections then it's not bold enough that's what i would say but it something in my projections might point me towards it okay yeah i kind of look at it as i think the way i was explaining it like something i think could way I was explaining it. Like something I think could happen, but I take it to an extreme. And we're going to talk about my bold predictions today.
Starting point is 00:03:30 We're going to talk about Dave's and Heath's throughout the week. We're going to be joined by a couple special guests, some industry experts, Jake Seeley from The Athletic, Liz Loza from Yahoo Sports. They'll get a chance to take apart both Heath and Dave's bold predictions. Unfortunately, we don't have anybody to pick apart mine, but the three of us. So we'll have some fun with that. I want to give you a little tease, though, for what the guys' bold prediction is going to be.
Starting point is 00:03:53 So Dave, you have one on Odell Beckham. Is he going to be better or worse? He will not even have a thousand yards in 2020, Jamie. Wow, that's bold. Well, thank you. But no, he's someone that I I don't really want to draft I still have him ranked as a number two fantasy receiver because it's possible you can finish as a number two fantasy receiver without a thousand yards but I'm I'll
Starting point is 00:04:16 get into it when when we get to my bold predictions but I'm nervous about him being a reliable stud fantasy receiver. And Heath, what are you going to tell people about Deshaun Watson? He is going to set career highs and pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Wow. That's a fun year for Deshaun Watson. Maybe not so much for Odell Beckham, but we'll get more into that later this week when we talk Dave's bold predictions and Heath's bold predictions. Like I said today, we're going to talk about my bold predictions.
Starting point is 00:04:45 We're each going to give you five bold predictions for 2020. But I was thinking about this. I was off last week. You guys did a great job podcasting, as always. We're obviously in a little bit of unprecedented times with what's going to happen in regards to COVID-19, the coronavirus. And I was thinking about this in terms of some league structure, that we may have some situations, maybe Friday inactives that we find out somebody may not play.
Starting point is 00:05:09 Maybe it's game day inactives. And clearly we draft a lot of running backs and wide receivers, not a lot, or there are leagues where people carry multiple quarterbacks, but have a situation where you need to replace somebody a backup quarterback, a backup tight end, maybe changing some of the rules and how we draft to add a second quarterback, maybe make a TQB, a second tight end, force people to carry those things. Heath, I'll start with you. Have you given any consideration to, I know you did a great job, writing about maybe the impact of what the virus could be
Starting point is 00:05:58 on some of the on-field stuff, but what about the fantasy league implications? You know, baseball has talked a lot about how they are going are going to have possibly if they play expanded rosters and i think that might be a good idea for this year i generally think it's a good idea anyway but i would not be opposed at all adding just a couple of roster spots make drafts just a little bit deeper um it rewards drafting and makes the waiver wire more difficult i know that but in that that way it will be easier to carry both a backup quarterback and a backup tight end hopefully i don't know i like i guess we don't know when they're going to be doing testing i'm presuming
Starting point is 00:06:36 they're going to be testing every week i suppose if the testing's happening on sunday morning then we could have like we may just have a situation where we need to have all leagues have Sunday ads available would be another thing. That would be fair, for sure. Yeah, Dave, I thought you were giving me thoughts of, you know, maybe changing how leagues are set up in regards to what could be something. So, first of all, I would suspect that players are going to get tested every day, at the very least have their temperature taken.
Starting point is 00:07:01 I would think every Sunday if they're walking into a stadium. Anytime they're walking into a facility, I imagine they'll get their temperature taken. I would think every Sunday if they're walking into a stadium. Anytime they're walking into a facility, I imagine they'll get their temperature taken and where have you been for the last 24 hours? Who knows what it'll be, but there will absolutely be a protocol to try and keep anybody who might be sick from coming in and infecting other people. I agree with the idea of expanded rosters,
Starting point is 00:07:22 but there could be people like me that try and take advantage. And you know me, I'm always trying to stash as many running backs as possible. And if that happens to me where I've got eight running backs on my bench and only one quarterback and my quarterback is Patrick Mahomes and God forbid, he cover your ears. Patrick Mahomes gets ruled out for a week. I'm,
Starting point is 00:07:43 I'm stuck. I either have to go to the waiver wire if my commissioner will let me. If I'm in a fab league, they might not let me. And I'm stuck. So I think it's going to end up being the responsibility of every fantasy manager to have your bases covered. And if that means you can't make ad drops on Thursday or Sunday or Monday, you better be prepared just in case. I don't mind adding extra roster spots. I don't think you have to make it mandatory that you must draft two quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:08:12 and two tight ends. I don't think you have to kind of baby your league like that. Everybody can kind of do it on their own. But the best way around it, Jamie, more roster spots and Sunday ad drops. Right. But I think in regards to both those, if you do have more roster spots, you brought it up, Dave, there are going to be people that say, well, I'm going to roll the dice with my quarterback or tight end being fine,
Starting point is 00:08:38 that I can stash six handcuffs, you know, whatever the case may be, however deep you go. And then with the Sunday ad drops, you drops, that's probably okay for the 1 o'clock games, but when you get to the 4 o'clock in the primetime games, there's only so much you can do in terms of managing your league. You can do 4 o'clock ad drops, but that just becomes very dicey in terms of how you're going to set up your league that way. I'm just looking at both sides of this. I think one thing that I think I'm going to do with my leagues is if your quarterback is declared inactive, you could either – I'm going to give the people in my league two choices. You can either take the TQB scoring, so you get the backup points of the quarterback there, or then you can pick up a quarterback who's available.
Starting point is 00:09:22 So not change the roster limits and just give it – you know, put it on me as a commissioner that I have to fix that for the particular owner. Could you also just make it where whatever quarterback you have on your team, you're automatically allowed to have the backup on your roster without it being on your roster? That's what I'm saying. So it's not be... If that's the case, then you might as well just roll with TQBs.
Starting point is 00:09:50 No, but then that becomes the Saints guys when you get an advantage because of... If Philly does it with Jalen Hurts, that could be an advantage. But maybe that's just something that you can work into how your league goes. Yeah, I don't really love the TQB thing unless it's a league that requires that and I don't really want to get into too many of those leagues per se. I just don't like it.
Starting point is 00:10:12 But I think it's just the way you were framing it. Patrick Mahomes gets ruled inactive Sunday night. Automatically you get chatted at these points. If you're not carrying a back quarterback. So I don't want to screw the guy because of a illness situation. What do you do at tight end then?
Starting point is 00:10:31 You can do the same thing. That's fair. You get the second tight end. Whoever the backup tight end is. Right. Now this would be the scenario of somebody not telling you or you falling into the scenario of late game primetime me now if it's early game ruled inactive it's on you if there's some day i don't know if you can do
Starting point is 00:10:51 that i don't know if you can i don't know if you can legislate it that way i think if you're going to make it yeah that's what i'm saying like this is this is something i don't have an answer for i'm just telling you like my thought process i don't i don't i don't have like this is i think it's cool and i think it's just something that we should start to consider. I think it's cool if you know you don't have to expand your fantasy rosters in this case. If I draft Patrick Mahomes, I know I've got Chad Henney in case of crazy emergency.
Starting point is 00:11:17 In an emergency. But is it just for surprise day of game inactives? It has to be. Okay. it just for surprise day of game inactives it has to be okay and then if i thought travis kelsey you know right this isn't this isn't right this isn't he tweaks his hamstring first quarter or if he's been questionable all week with a hamstring injury yes yes this is this is show off sunday we test you you're uh positive for whatever they you know fever you have you know it doesn't have to be covid it's it's fever you're not playing you know you're sick you got a cold you're not playing what if it's a sunday surprise and we don't find out what it is
Starting point is 00:12:00 it's a good question like i said there's there's got to be some gray area maybe this is expand rosters and and make people carry two quarterbacks and two tight ends and then like he said it kind of ruins the way we are a little bit that this is something we'll have to talk about a lot throughout the next uh you know month or so but as again you know our leagues on cbs sports are starting to open this month it's june 1st we're recording this so you're going to start to set up your leagues you have to start to think about things a little bit differently just with what's going on around the world. We're going to take a quick break here.
Starting point is 00:12:28 When we come back, we're going to get into our bold predictions for my bold predictions for 2020. And Heath and Dave will pick it apart as they always do. Stay right here. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years,
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Starting point is 00:13:22 They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer your game time tastes like miller time learn more at millerlight.ca must be legal drinking age so let's get into some bold predictions for 2020 these are the five bold predictions that i am providing for you and for dave and heath to pick apart. Let's start with bold prediction number one. You may have heard me talk about Clyde Edwards-Hilaire once or twice on the show. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, I will try and pronounce it correctly this time. So I say Clyde Edwards-Hilaire will be a top five running back in PPR by the end of the season.
Starting point is 00:13:57 This is what I was talking about at the start of the show. I don't have it ranked this way, but if things go well for Mr. Hilaire, Edwards-Hilaire, I think he could end up being a top five running back in PPR. He is our consensus number 15 running back right now. That is among the three of us. I have him ranked number 10. He is going based on fantasy football calculator as the 14th running back off the board with a pick in the second round,
Starting point is 00:14:19 the ninth pick in the second round behind guys like Austin Eckler and Aaron Jones ahead of Leonard Fournette, David Johnson, and Melvin Gordon if you are just talking about average draft positions. So Heath, Mr. Chiefs fan, you love this guy in real life. Do you love him in fantasy as well? I would love it if this was correct. Now, the way you said it, I want to verify before I start picking apart. He will be a top five running back
Starting point is 00:14:47 when the season is over and we look at the running back standings or we'll be him as a top five back in the second half of the season. No, when the season is over, he will have finished as a top five running back in PPR. Yeah, I think if it was the second one that would still be bold and I might be on board with it, but I am just a little bit
Starting point is 00:15:03 concerned. You mentioned what I wrote about the impact the last time we had a shortened off season and it's not completely the same but back in 2011 running backs really had a hard time getting on the field on pass catching downs and Clyde Edwards-Elair is awesome at pass catching he's a different beast especially when it comes to this class I think if anybody does early in the year it will be him but I still really expect that week one, Damian Williams is going to get the first carry. And I think week one, Damian Williams is likely to do more pass blocking than Clyde is. And so that could cause a problem with the first quarter of the season. He's more
Starting point is 00:15:40 of a 10 to 12 touch guy than a 15 to 20 touch guy. So I think by the end of the season, we might be ranking him as a top five running back, but I don't expect that he will finish as a top five running back. Where do you have him ranked now? Ah, you're not going to like it. Inside your top 12,
Starting point is 00:15:59 outside your top 12, outside my top 12 and your top 15. No, he's my top 20. Not my top 15. Dave, what about you? Where do you have CEH ranked? He's 12th for me in PPR.
Starting point is 00:16:10 And I get where you're coming from, dude. Andy Reid and his running backs, the track record has been great. He's produced a top 12 running back eight of the last 10 seasons. I don't know how many of those times there was a top five running back, though. So that's pretty rare. One thing that... The last rookie he had was. The last rookie he had was.
Starting point is 00:16:30 I'm not sure Kareem Hunt was that guy. How about this? Running back targets in Kansas City since Reid arrived, they've averaged 116.3 per season. Last four years, 112 targets, 102 targets, 128 targets, 99 targets. 99 targets was the fewest amount of targets that running backs have had under Reed with the Chiefs. Now that's all the targets. It's not one running back getting all those targets. So it kind of goes back to Damian Williams. How long is he going to be a fly in the ointment? How long is he going to take work away from Clyde Edwards-Hilaire?
Starting point is 00:17:07 If it ends up being the first month of the year, it's going to hurt Edwards-Hilaire, and you're going to feel silly for drafting him in round one or very early round two. But if he can get a large share right out of the gate and prove that he is the next Kareem Hunter, a much better souped up version of Damian Williams or a healthier version than Damian Williams, then there's a
Starting point is 00:17:29 chance he can get there. So I understand the hype on him. I'm just, I'm finding myself not drafting very often, partially because I draft with you all the time, Jamie. Yes, I do take him usually in the, in the middle of round two. Um, we, we typically see him go if I don't take him usually in the middle of round two. We typically see him go. If I don't take him back into round two, beginning of round three, and I think that's probably where he'll end up living. I think right now his average draft position is not factoring in Dynasty League. So if you hear ninth pick in the second round, that is redraft leagues. And again, that's according to Fantasy Football Calculator.
Starting point is 00:17:59 But people are excited about the Chiefs running back. If you take the combination of Damian Williams and LaShawn McCoy, you could obviously do this with a lot of running backs, with the starter and the backup or the guy in the injury replacement. But the combination of Damian Williams and LaShawn McCoy would have been the number eight running back in PPR last year. So if it is Edwards-Hilaire getting most of the touches, that's not a far-off place to go to get into the top five.
Starting point is 00:18:20 And as we know what he did last year at LSU, almost 1,900 total yards, 17 total touchdowns, and 55 catches. And you're comparing him to these guys in round two, Mixon, Chubb, Sanders, based on ADP, Austin Eckler, Aaron Jones. Heath, it sounds like you would take all those guys over Edwards Hilaire, right? Yeah, yeah, I would at the end of round two. And again, I think what I'm probably going to do with a lot of the rookies, and it will fail with a couple of them if they get off to hot starts,
Starting point is 00:18:48 but I'm going to have a hard time drafting them where their ADP is. But I plan on making some offers at the end of September and the early October to get those guys. I don't want to get to November and not have any Clyde Edwards-Elair on my team. I'm just not sure I'm going to be able to get him in the draft. Right, and for your sake, if he does get off to a slow start, that would certainly help his trade possibilities with somebody maybe looking to unload him for a guy who could be fading by the second half of the season. I did some polls in regards to my bold predictions. So I, one of the
Starting point is 00:19:17 polls was in relation to, to fight towards Hilaire and it was which running back would you rather have in redraft PPR leagues this year, Edward Solaire, Nick Chubb, Derek Henry, and Joe Mixon. And surprisingly, the other three guys were very close. Mixon actually won the poll out of 4,400 votes with 30% of the vote. Derek Henry was, I'm sorry,
Starting point is 00:19:36 Nick Chubb was second and 28 and a half percent. Derek Henry was third, 27.3. And then the guy who will be top five, Clyde Edwards Solaire, 13.9%. So it was a little surprising that Henry didn't win the poll, but very close between Mixon, Henry, and Chubb,
Starting point is 00:19:49 and then Edwards-Alaire coming up at the bottom there. Dave, real quick before we move on to the next one, if you draft Edwards-Alaire, do you have to take Damien Williams? You don't have to, but it's a good idea. If the basis of your drafting of Edwards-Alaire is he's an Andy Reid running back, then go all the way with Andy Reid running backs and get them both. And again, if we do expand some rosters, it's easier to do that with your fantasy team.
Starting point is 00:20:14 All right, bold prediction number two. Darrington Evans will be this year's lottery ticket. He'll be the top waiver wire ad of the season. So right now, consensus-wise, we do not have him ranked based on what our overall rankings look like for me. He's the number 51 running back in PPR. Fantasy football calculator does not have him being drafted right now based on his ADP, but I'm sure you've heard me say this before as well. I don't think Derek Henry is going to have a great season because I'm concerned about his potential injuries over 400 total touches last year, bad track record of running backs when they have that much work,
Starting point is 00:20:47 regular season, post-season combined. And so if he goes down, I do not see the Titans changing their modus operandi. You know, I don't think that they're going to change how they run their offense and, and dramatically shift to all of a sudden, let's make Ryan Tannehill the star of the Titans and have him throw the ball
Starting point is 00:21:03 40 plus times. Unfortunately for AJ Brown, but there we had just get our obligatory AJ Brown name reference. There are a lot of great handcuff options and injuries are going to be the big reason why these guys potentially can help you. We're going to throw out the high end sort of guys. So, you know, Kareem hunt type players. I don't think that they necessarily count um the guys where there's like you know questionable backfield like matt brita jordan howard you know we'll throw those guys out as well but we're
Starting point is 00:21:33 talking about maybe more late round picks and so guys like alexander madison tony pollard chase edmunds those type of guys who could be lottery tickets as well. When you approach these type of players, Dave, do you draft them with the hope of, I'm going to sit on them for X amount of weeks, or is it if the starter is still doing what the starter does early in the season, I have to cut bait and move on? How do you approach taking these lottery tickets? I want to hold onto them for as long as I can,
Starting point is 00:22:09 but I recognize that certainly once the bye weeks start and then once injuries start to pile up or poor play in my starting lineup piles up, I'm going to have to make a move. And sometimes that move is trying to trade the backup to the team that's got the starter. So if I draft Darrington Evans and Jamie, you somehow have Derek Henry and Henry's doing fine and Evans isn't doing anything. I might try to pair Evans with a receiver to get a slightly better receiver off your team. I don't want to cut these guys if I don't have to, but sometimes you have to.
Starting point is 00:22:38 And it's one thing you do have to keep in mind. Maybe this is something to keep in mind when you're drafting these late round lottery tickets is all right. How long am I really going to hold on to these guys? Am I committed to sticking with them through week three, through week five? How long will it take? And I'm not thinking like that with most of these players, but in the case of Evans, I certainly want to see how the season starts for him. I don't want to have to hang on to him. If I need a backup tight end, my tight end's on by, and he's the most cuttable player, what do you think I'm going to do? I'm going to let him go.
Starting point is 00:23:10 If that happens in week six or week seven, it sucks on me that I've got to hold on to him and get nothing out of him, hoping for bad things to happen to Derrick Henry. I think one thing that we also see with some of these guys, and Heath, I'll ask you this, because in a lot of our mock drafts that we've done, you take a lot of these handcuffs, not necessarily to handcuff the guys you have,
Starting point is 00:23:30 you take it to steal other people's handcuffs per se is, are they getting work in conjunction with the running back that they're backing up? You know, is it a situation where like we saw last year with Alexander Madison or Gus Edwards, they were getting, you know,
Starting point is 00:23:43 some work. It may not have been great fantasy production, but they were touching the ball so that you saw what they could do given if the starter did go down. Is that something you look at, Heath, when you're taking some of these backups? And I know the guys that you're typically targeting have been Tony Pollard and Chase Edmund. Yeah, and I do think those guys will have a role.
Starting point is 00:24:00 The nice thing about that and the thing that I struggle with with handcuffs, I really would like to have somebody that I think is good because we have seen feature backs go down and the secondary guy comes in. I lost a bet over it this year, Hilleman. Sometimes those backups are just kind of bad. And so I feel pretty confident in Tony Pollard and Chase Edmonds if they get the opportunity in fact we saw it with Edmonds last year he was incredible for a couple of weeks they're going to be very good and those are the types of guys and Ben Gretsch talked about this last week those are the types of guys that I like to target when I don't have great starting
Starting point is 00:24:37 running backs right because if I've built a team with elite wide receivers and a good quarterback and an elite tight end and one of those guys, it's going to be very difficult for teams to compete with you. So that's what I'm looking for in those. And, you know, I didn't get a chance to pick apart the Derrington Evans. I think that that's my right. So the Derrick Henry thing, I was doing some research this morning because the 400 touches in the regular season, I think, is pretty well established. You've been writing about that for longer than I've worked at CBS, and you've done some really good stuff.
Starting point is 00:25:13 The 400 touches, including the playoffs, I'm not as sure about. We saw in 2018, Ezekiel Elliott did that. He was awesome last year. 2016 and 2017, Le'Veon Bell did it he was awesome one of those years and then he sat out DeMarco Murray and Aaron Foster absolutely fell apart but Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice did it three different times and other than the last year that they did it in 2012 they were pretty much awesome in the following years so i'm i'm not sure the track record of injury after 400 touches including the playoffs is as convincing
Starting point is 00:25:50 to me as the one of 400 touches in the regular season oh for sure it's definitely more of a regular season argument and fantasy football outsiders you know they're the ones that started the curse of 370 and that's typically the number that you look for in the regular season he's also an unprecedented guy in terms of derrick Henry, though, based on his size. And so, you know, will he hold up to all of this work at his physical stature? It could be a huge benefit for him because he's running over guys, but he runs the contact. You know, I mean, he's one of those type of players that he's not afraid to do that. We spoke to him after the Super Bowl, at the Super Bowl, after his season was over.
Starting point is 00:26:23 And I think Dave's the one that asked him the question. And he said, I can play a full season right now. You I think Dave's the one that asked him the question and he said, I can play a full season right now. You know, I mean, he's certainly comfortable and confident in his abilities, but as we saw offensive line changing a little bit, you know, they did lose Jack Conklin. They're replacing him with a rookie. So we'll see how that happens. We've talked about, you know, the potential regression of this offense with Ryan Tannehill that could help
Starting point is 00:26:41 Henry, if they're getting more plays, as Ben has talked about, you know, maybe he gets more opportunities. The thing that scares me about him also is that if he goes down and then works his way back, he doesn't have the strength of his passing game to rely on. And if Evans is doing something in the passing game and they're changing things a little bit, maybe he's on the field a little bit more. So that's more of a Derrick Henry bus conversation than the Darrington Evans waiver wire ad. But I think both of you guys said it best, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:07 this is a guy that you have to sort of have some faith in and hold on to. We have to see if he's going to play in conjunction. And Heath, you said, you know, you lost the bet on this. In regards to both the one name that we mentioned, Alexander Madison, we thought he was going to be a lottery ticket for us. He wasn't there. And the guy who replaced him was terrible and lost a lot of people, fancy championships and Mike Boone or fancy playoffs. And then the other part of it is when Derek Henry missed time in the
Starting point is 00:27:34 fantasy playoffs, the guy that replaced him lost people some fantasy championships and playoffs as well with Dion Lewis. So it's not a guarantee that the guy that just steps into a great situation is good, but i'm looking at darrington evans as somebody i thought he showed up well in what i saw from him in appalachian state uh 23 total touchdowns last year i think he's going to be a little bit better than what deon lewis was at least that's the hope and we'll see if he takes derrick henry off the field but again we're talking bold predictions we're not talking about actually things that could happen and so i think most people rightfully so we'll take guys like Madison Pollard, Edmonds, those type of handcuffs. I did another poll in regard to that.
Starting point is 00:28:08 And the results were, as you can imagine, Darrington Edmonds, probably not close. Of the 2000 people who voted in that poll, the running backs I put on the list were Madison Pollard and AJ Dillon, just to get another rookie in there. So Madison won that one easily 52% of the vote. Tony Pollard, 22.4%. A.J. Dillon, 17.8%. And then Darrington Evans, 7.8%. As you can tell, nobody's drafting him except for me. Let's go now to another bold prediction here.
Starting point is 00:28:35 And this is Calvin Ridley will be this year's Chris Godwin. And what I mean by that is the second receiver could be better than the first receiver. Last year, that's what happened. Godwin was better than Mike Evans. I don't think anybody expects Calvin Ridley to be better than Julio Jones, but that's why we're talking about bold predictions. So right now he is the consensus number 10 wide receiver for us. I haven't ranked number 10. I think we all haven't ranked number 10, which is why he's at that spot. His average draft position is the 17th receiver off the board, according to fantasy football calculator. And thank you to our buddy Shaggy B, Ben Schra trager for doing all of this research to make things easy on me but as we saw last year
Starting point is 00:29:09 from calvin ridley he came on once muhammad sanu was traded to the patriots in uh in his final six games he didn't play in the last three games of the season but his final six games he averaged 17.1 ppr points per game over that that stretch, he was better than Julio Jones. So if you're talking about Calvin Ridley, we're all excited about him entering his third season. Heath, how excited are you? When would you draft Calvin Ridley? I love this one.
Starting point is 00:29:33 I'm not even going to tear this one apart. I actually was on HQ yesterday doing the Geico 15, and I was actually talking about regression from the prior week, and they said at the end, well, give us your favorite breakout. Who's the one guy that's going to break out? And I said Calvin Ridley might be this year's Chris Codwin. So I absolutely love this one. I think he's definitely worth a pick in the first three rounds. I will take him in round three in any format. You look at what he did last year. He was over 18 fantasy points per
Starting point is 00:30:00 game after they traded Mohamed Sanu. Average 15 per game for the season, and people just kind of didn't notice it because he missed three games. I absolutely think he's a future star and would not really be all that surprised if he's better than Julio this year. I definitely think he'll be better than Julio by next year. Yeah, you've been talking him up in terms of dynasty as well, doing all of your dynasty content, and you said he could become a top five wide receiver in dynasty, so drafting him ahead of Julio Jones in that format makes a lot of sense. Given the age for both Julio in his early thirties, Dave,
Starting point is 00:30:31 when you compare him to some other receivers in his range, average draft position in terms of Calvin Ridley, Cooper cup, Amari Cooper. I think we'll, you know, we'll probably end up seeing in our drafts, Mike Evans in that range as well.
Starting point is 00:30:44 Kenny Galladay, you know, how does Ridley stack up to some of thems Mike Evans in that range as well. Kenny Galladay. How does Ridley stack up to some of those? I would take Kup ahead of him. And I think I might take Galladay ahead of him too. Just because we've seen it from Galladay, the big touchdowns, the big play potential. We've seen it from Ridley, but not to quite the same extent. We might have seen it last year if he had stayed healthy for 16 games.
Starting point is 00:31:04 But that's about it. I'll take Ridley ahead of Mike Evans. I'll take Ridley ahead of a Mark Cooper by a mile. The only thing that I think could slow Calvin Ridley down, there are two things. Number one, Todd Gurley regains his old form, and all of a sudden, he's a running back on fire, and the Falcons have a run game that they can really lean on. That would mean the offensive line is better. And that would take targets away from everybody in Atlanta. And I just don't think that that's a realistic for, for Todd at this point in his career. But the other thing that would concern me is what happens if Julio Jones misses time. And now it's pretty clear what defenses would do. If there's no Julio on the field, they're not going to double-team Russell Gage.
Starting point is 00:31:46 They're going to go after Ridley. And I'm not convinced yet about him beating double teams. And I think a lot of where his success has come from is playing opposite Julio Jones. And if Julio's not there for whatever reason, it's going to hurt Calvin Ridley. So as long as Julio is okay, and as long as the Falcons have to throw, and I think that we both agree that those are things that we're counting on,
Starting point is 00:32:09 Calvin Ridley is going to have a monster year. He definitely has the potential for it. And again, you know, if you just look at the games without Sanu, Austin Hooper was banged up as well during part of that stretch. You know, he really took off. And so that's the hope they bring in Hayden Hurst to replace Hooper. This offense, even if Gurley is running the ball better, still going to be very pass heavy. They led the NFL in past attempts last season. So a lot to like about what this passing game could look like with still a suspect defense that's in rebuild mode. But Calvin Ridley, I think in round three is going to be very, very fun to have. And if you do go running back, running back with your first two picks, he's not a bad number one running back to fall back on. This was the Twitter poll that I got the most pushback on
Starting point is 00:32:49 because I just did yes or no. So will Calvin Ridley be a better fantasy receiver than Julio Jones this year? 79.4% said no. 20.6% said yes. That was out of 8,000 votes. And I think Ben Schrager retweeted that one as well. And we got a few, are you crazy? I'm surprised it was that much. Yeah, I mean, look, you know, people obviously love Julio Jones. He's been fantastic. But at some point, there's going to be a changing of the guard. It happened for him with Roddy White. You know, you'd like to see both these guys be top 10 fantasy receivers.
Starting point is 00:33:21 And, you know, for the people that are going to invest in Julio Jones, they'll have him produced at a top five, top level but sometimes you know when these guys fall off a cliff they fall off quickly and the young guys coming and calvin ridley certainly has the pedigree and the potential to be a great fantasy wide receiver let's go on to next bold prediction and this one is the browns will have the eighth duo on the same team in nfl history to rush for at least 1 000 yards both guys will rush for at least 1,000 yards. Both guys will rush for at least 1,000 yards with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. So the other seven guys who have done it in the NFL, there's seven teams to have two players do it.
Starting point is 00:33:53 The 72 Dolphins with Larry Zonk and Mercury Morris. The 76 Steelers with Franco Harris and Rocky Bleer. The 85 Browns with Kevin Mack and Ernest Biner. The 2006 Falcons with Warwick Dunn and Michael Vick. The 2008 Giants with Brandon Jacobs and Derek Ward, the 2009 Panthers with Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams, and last year's Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. So you have the two Browns guys.
Starting point is 00:34:16 Both have done it before, Chubb and Kareem Hunt. And I'm going to give you guys a trivia question that if you want to find out the answer, you have to come check us out on Twitch tomorrow for our poker tournament or poker what we call poker tournament poker tournament um so what five teams currently in the nfl have a pair of thousand yard rushers currently on the roster you only have to come up with four i just told you one of them with chubb and cream hunts there are four other teams that have a pair of thousand yard rushers currently on the roster we'll give you the answer tomorrow on Twitch.
Starting point is 00:34:45 I'm trying to convince Adam to let me give away a spot in the podcast league. If you have the answer on Twitch, he said no, but maybe we can talk him into it. But come check us out on Twitch. If you give us the answer in the chat, I will see if I can reward you. So come there, watch us play poker. Give us the answer to that question. All right. So here we go.
Starting point is 00:35:02 Nick Chubb coming off a fantastic season. Kareem Hunt was very good once he came back from suspension, more so catching the ball than rushing the ball. Dave, could this bold prediction come true? Can the Browns be the eighth team to have a duo on the same team rush for at least a thousand yards? I have a hard time seeing a thousand rush yards for both backs. I have an easier time seeing a thousand total yards for both backs. And with Chubb, it's pretty cut and dried. He should be the primary running back for them.
Starting point is 00:35:28 Won't dominate touches. I think that's pretty clear. But getting over 1,000 rush yards, it's about 70 per game. I think he can do that quite easily, even while sharing with Hunt. It's Hunt getting 70 rush yards per game that I just don't see. So if you were to amend this just to say 1,000 total yards, I could see Kareem Hunt getting like... But that's more realistic.
Starting point is 00:35:52 I know, but I'll tell you what, I think it's so bold if you say that. I've got it projected that way. I think that's bold. No, I've got it projected that way. You do have it projected that way. I have Hunt projected for 1,001 total yards. It's funny, I looked. That's amazing.
Starting point is 00:36:05 What was his pace last year in the eight games he played? Do you have that off the top of your head, guys? What did Kareem Hunt do? No. No. But I can't say that, like, I have them combined for 2,009 rushing yards. It's bad, bad news for Nick Chubb if Kareem Hunt rushes for a thousand yards well I will say this if that's the number that they get then it's bad news if it's 2400 or 2500
Starting point is 00:36:35 and he's closer to 1500 rushing yards then you're thrilled with it that would be that would be just fine I think like really what you're what probably leads to this is an injury that costs nick chubb three or four games uh potentially you know or it could just be that they're so run dominant because of kevin stefanski and the offense that he ran in minnesota that it's more bad news if this happens for beckham and landry and and the passing game obviously baker mayfield for anybody that's investing him as a starter. But I think what will have to happen is that potentially, like you said, Heath, one guy
Starting point is 00:37:10 gets hurt, you know, Chubb still crosses the line and Hunt has just a monster, you know, series of replacement games. But if, you know, he is getting, you know, 70 yards a game and maybe has a couple of games where he pops, you know, over 100 plus and chubb is you know as we saw last year you know competing with derrick henry to lead the league in rushing it's happened before you know again some of the names that we gave you throw out the falcons with michael vick and the ravens with lamar jackson were a pair of running backs have done it the one that kind of stood out to me was um the the giant situation where derrick ward wasn't a great
Starting point is 00:37:43 fantasy option in terms of being a superstar because he didn't score a lot of touchdowns, but he still gave you the thousand yards rushing. And Brandon Jacobs was the, uh, was the monster guy there. Same thing with work done. He didn't have a lot of touchdowns, but he was really good in the passing game. So, uh, Heath, you're the most excited about hunt. I was looking at the rankings. You have him, uh, PPR, uh, I think at 20, if I'm not mistaken. So you are drafting him as a starter in that format. Yeah, and I just looked. He was on pace for about 920 total yards last year.
Starting point is 00:38:13 74 catches, though. So I think there is a pretty big difference in his value from non-PPR to PPR. But I think there's two things about him. One, I think he can be good with Kevin Stefanski there calling 400 rush plays a game, even if Nick Chubb doesn't have any problems at all. The other thing is when you're drafting him,
Starting point is 00:38:36 you might be in the seventh round drafting a top five running back because we talked about the handcuffs before. He's a handcuff that you can start every week and feel okay about it in PPR. And if Nick Chubb goes down, there's very few running backs that we would like better than Kareem Hunt on a week-to-week basis.
Starting point is 00:38:54 He is an extremely talented back. He's very good in the passing game. They are going to throw the ball to their running backs for sure, and they are going to run it a ton. So I think there's room for him to be a top 20 back. I believe he was top 15, top 16 last year in PPR. In the second half of the season,
Starting point is 00:39:10 watch up was right around 10th or 12th. So there's enough room for both of these guys to be top 20 backs. They did it last year. Yeah, for sure. You know, if, if, if things stayed the same, you know, and the question becomes is how much more work that again, because, you know, it's hard to say, you know, we're throwing you in and week 10 and you're going to handle everything, you know? And so is he going to be able to handle everything?
Starting point is 00:39:29 Uh, that would be the expectation, you know, not necessarily in terms of the total touches because Chubb should still get more total touches, but he's going to hurt Nick Chubb to a certain extent. Um, as we saw last year, you know, the numbers that he had pre cream hunt playing and post cream hunt playing. Now, some of that was unfortunate touchdown numbers, you know, touchdown totals.
Starting point is 00:39:47 He, he, he could have done a little bit better in that regard. We talked about that. You guys talked about that in some of the advanced stats podcast that you, you, you broke down, but I think there's,
Starting point is 00:39:57 there's a lot to like about both these running backs and maybe Kareem Hunt could hurt the overall ADP for Nick Chubb. He's going as a 10th running back off the board in round two. For me, he's number 11. He's our consensus running back number 11. When you talk about where Nick Chubb is and for Hunt, his ADP, his consensus ranking is 28th. I have him 29, but he pulls up the consensus a little bit.
Starting point is 00:40:19 I think, Dave, I saw you have him 30 right behind a guy like Raheem Mostert. So you would take Mostert and PPR over Kareem Hunt? Yes, because I think there's just more upside with Mostert. Even though he'll split, there's more non-injury upside. That's the way to put it. Okay, so there's where kind of Kareem Hunt factors in, Nick Chubb, and again, the bold prediction would be both guys can get to 1,000 rushing yards, becoming the eighth duo in NFL history to do that.
Starting point is 00:40:47 We'll see if that comes to fruition. Last bold prediction. And so when we did this, this is based off of the bold predictions that we did for our magazine. So our editor, Chris Towers, he said, you know, you could do something sort of NFL related. And so that's kind of where I went with this one a little bit. And it ties into fantasy as well, based on a quarterback that you may like is Tyrod Taylor leads the chargers to the playoffs. And by that,
Starting point is 00:41:09 I mean, he's going to be the starter from start to finish for the chargers. And so can't have the potential to be a very good fantasy quarterback. Our consensus ranking on Taylor is number 28. I have him ranked number 25. If I thought he was starting for 16 games, he probably would be close to 12th for me. His average draft position, as you would expect, he's not being drafted. But if Taylor was the
Starting point is 00:41:30 starter for the Chargers, we know they improved their offensive line this offseason by adding Trey Turner and Brian Balaga. They have one of the best group of skill players that you have in the NFL with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Eckler, and Hunter Henry. It's a very strong group that I think would help Tyrod Taylor. And as we saw from him as a starter previously, he's got two years on his resume with at least 568 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. So we like that from our quarterbacks when they run favorable early season schedule.
Starting point is 00:41:57 If you're just talking about somebody to stream, they get the Bengals, the Chiefs, the Carolina Panthers, and the Bucs in the first four weeks. And so, Heath, I know you're very excited about Tyrod Taylor as well. If you found out he was starting the entire season, would you buy into him as a potential starter? Yeah, this is another one of those situations where I'm trying to pull up the consensus ranking,
Starting point is 00:42:18 and apparently Dave is dragging it down because if his consensus is 28 and you have him 25th, then Dave may not have him ranked. I have him 20th, and that's below where I have him projected. I do think if you told me Tyrod Taylor is playing 16 games in 2020, I would tell you he's going to finish as a top 14 quarterback in either format and top 12 quarterback in formats that reward four points per pass touchdowns he's in a fantastic situation keenan allen mike williams hunter henry austin
Starting point is 00:42:54 eckler very good defense i i think there's a very decent chance the chargers go to the playoffs and i cannot see them changing quarterbacks for as long as they're in the playoff race. So I like this one. And the reason we say changing quarterbacks, we just mentioned they drafted Justin Herbert. So that's part of the problem here is that they invested heavily in a quarterback in the top 10 first round pick guy who could take over easily. This happened to Tyra Taylor once before with the Cleveland Browns.
Starting point is 00:43:20 It was the number one overall pick when the Browns took Baker Mayfield, but Taylor lasted two games and then wass took Baker Mayfield, but Taylor lasted two games and then was replaced by Baker Mayfield. Could be a little bit different scenario because of what Anthony Lynn has been saying about Tyrod Taylor, kind of the storyline we've talked about a lot, the offseason, not really having one. So can the rookie come in and be ready to go? Dave, I guess you're the one dragging Tyrod Taylor's consensus ranking down. I'm sure that has to do clearly with Justin Herbert. But again, the scenario being, if he starts 16 games,
Starting point is 00:43:52 where do you think he would finish? I think he would be around 15th. And he should be 24th in my ranking. So my apologies for dragging him down maybe a little too much. I'm putting my thumb on the scale a little too much on Tyrod Taylor. But yeah, if he's playing 16 games, then he should be good. I'm still a little skittish on him just based on how he threw when he did start for the Browns. He completed less than half of his throws. That's usually not a good thing. And does it mean that the Chargers offense becomes kind of a conservative offense, run-focused offense
Starting point is 00:44:26 where they don't take a lot of chances downfield. I don't know if they really even have a great deep ball receiver at this point. So it might mean that he's going to have to be efficient and have a lot of volume. Not sure he's going to have a lot of that. How much is he really going to run?
Starting point is 00:44:42 He's not the same age, obviously, as when he was doing it in Buffalo. But yeah, Anthony Lynn's a fan of his. He's going to start to begin the season. And unless Justin Herbert looks great in training camp in the preseason, it's going to be a long time before we see him on the field. So Tyrod's got a shot. And you mentioned the schedule. You said it's great early on. Jamie, it's good all season long for the Chargers. I graded them with the best schedule. They play a lot of soft defenses along the way. They're going to be in a lot of games where they're going to have to throw when they play the Chiefs and the Broncos and the Raiders. I do think that there is some potential there. I'm more concerned about Tyrod
Starting point is 00:45:23 not only keeping the job, but playing effectively and having a lot of explosive plays. Yeah. I mean, look, there's a reason he's bounced around to several teams since being the starter in Buffalo, taking in the playoffs and then not able to sustain being the long-term starter there. And again, he was replaced in Cleveland for Baker Mayfield. I did another poll in regard to this one as well. And so which really late round quarterback do you have the most interest in for redraft leagues? Tyrod or Tyrod Taylor, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Heath, where do you think your boy finished? First, second, or third? Third. He was third. So it was very close between Teddy Bridgewater and Jimmy Garoppolo. This is just shy of 3000 votes on this one. Garoppolo was 31.9%. Bridgewater 31.5%.
Starting point is 00:46:12 Gardner Minshew, 24.8%. And to Rod Taylor at 11.8%. So nobody's buying into my bold predictions at all. Understandably so. But again, that's why we talk about them being bold, but to Rod Taylor, the bold prediction being, he leaves the chargers to the playoffs which in turn would make him a potentially starting fantasy quarterback if you want to trust him throughout the course of the season so there's the bold predictions yeah one more thing just quick on taylor because i've used projections for my rankings as like the basis i do think that like if if you're just ranking based on where
Starting point is 00:46:45 he should be drafted he should be ranked higher than his projection not lower because that started the season schedule so good and you can always just stream if he gets pitched right and and again to sort of look back at the start of the show with what we were talking about as maybe some potential replacements if you are looking to draft two quarterbacks with the thought of, okay, if my quarterback was down to injury, I asked him this time potentially because of a illness situation, you'd be thrilled to have the guy starting against some of those teams that Terod Taylor is going to face,
Starting point is 00:47:14 especially that week one game against the Brown Bengals, excuse me. So that would be a fun scenario for him and potentially for you if you trust him. So just to recap the five bowl predictions for me, five Edwards Hilaire will be a top five running back in PPR by the end of the season. Darrington Evans will be the top waiver wire ad, the top lottery ticket this season. Calvin Ridley will be this year's Chris Godwin,
Starting point is 00:47:36 meaning he jumps over Julio Jones as the better fantasy wide receiver for the year. The Browns will have the eighth duo on the same team to rush for at least 1000 yards with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and Tarod Taylor leads the Chargers to the playoffs so looking forward to hearing Dave's bold predictions Keith's bold predictions will be joined by Liz Loza and Jake Sealy to break those down as well so fun week of bold predictions here but we're also going to answer your questions thank you for sending them to on to us uh with your Apple podcast reviews we appreciate those.
Starting point is 00:48:05 Give us a nice review, and we will read your questions on the air. This one comes to us from MartyMar86. Dave, where is he from? Boston or Boston? Boston, Massachusetts. Boston. Yes. What was the movie where they got that confused?
Starting point is 00:48:24 It was... They confused Boston and Austin? Yeah, it was... Oh my gosh, why am I blanking on this? It better not be a movie that Jesse Eisenberg was in, otherwise you're going to hear about it. No, it wasn't. It was Road Trip.
Starting point is 00:48:38 Yes, Road Trip. Road Trip, where the girl went to go chase him in Austin and he was in Boston or vice versa, whatever she went to. Thank you, Shraggy B, chiming in, giving us the answer there, as he always does. All right, so hello, Turkish Mickey and Frankly Four Fingers. Any idea?
Starting point is 00:48:54 Turkish Mickey, Frankly Four Fingers. No, don't know. Heath? No, it sounds like it's probably a mob mob movie that could be or a mouse uh please grade the trade in 0.25 ppr dynasty i traded miles sanders and tyler lockett for davante adams and ronald jones uh marty mar 86 other running backs are alvin kamara clyde edwards hilaire and james white other wide receivers are julio jones kingenan Allen, and Terry McLaurin. So grade to trade,.25 PPR, Miles Sanders and Tyler Lockett
Starting point is 00:49:30 for Devontae Adams and Ronald Jones. I kind of hate it. I'd rather have Sanders and Lockett. Yeah. I think I would too. I think you almost have to, don't you? Yeah. I mean, Sanders in Dynasty is certainly better than Ronald Jones.
Starting point is 00:49:50 And Tyler Lockett, while he's not in Devontae Adams' tier, he's probably not that far off by comparison to what the running backs are. So I think you probably ended up losing this trade a little bit, but you have the best player for 2020 in Devante adams and turkish mickey and frankly four fingers is from the movie snatch again thank you shraggy b i think is the one that put that in there so appreciate you giving us that answer there next question is from chase in rochester new york hey josh jim tarad and kyle bill's quarterbacks bill's quarterbacks I'm not sure on the Kyle Did Kyle Orton play for Buffalo?
Starting point is 00:50:30 I think so Then that's who it is How dare they leave Nathan Peterman out of this No Frank Wright Josh, Jim, Terod, and Kyle We'll call him Matt Barkley A draft
Starting point is 00:50:44 strategy that I've been experimenting with is robust running back, loading up on running backs with my first three picks. What are your thoughts on this strategy? And if implementing this, which draft spot would you prefer? So Heath, I'll go to you on this one. I know you love taking running backs with your first three picks. Do you like this?
Starting point is 00:51:01 And which spot would you prefer if you're doing this? I don't necessarily dislike this. If your league takes a lot of wide receivers early or quarterbacks, I think the best spot for doing this would be first. Because you could, like in a lot of leagues, I think Miles Sanders will be there at the end of the second. You might start with something like Christian McCaffrey, Miles Sanders, and I don't know.
Starting point is 00:51:29 I would venture to say that Austin Eckler is going to be there at the two, three-turns. Could Edward Zeller be there? Yeah, I was going to say, I know you did this in one draft where you took, I think it was McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs, right? I think I may have taken McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, and Le'Veon Bell. Right. The third one is probably the one that you'd be a little
Starting point is 00:51:49 bit concerned about. I would say maybe first through five you could potentially do this, right, Dave? I know you're going to skip over Michael Thomas in those spots, but if you end up taking Barkley or Elliot, Kamara, Davencook, one of those guys,
Starting point is 00:52:05 and somebody else does take Michael Thomas, you could still get one of those other running backs that he's mentioned in round two. And then somebody else from round three, I think with the depth that wide receiver, it's not that bad. Yeah. Because once you get to round three and rounds four and five, you're still talking about, as we said, you know, Calvin Ridley could be there. You know, guys like Tyler Lockett and Alan Robinson and Robert Woods.
Starting point is 00:52:26 It's not bad if those are two of your guys, if you have three potentially top 12 or top 15. I agree. I like it better if you're picking from the five slot, though, because when – I'm just thinking, and this is like a little tiny thing, but when you're picking in round four, it's going from 12 to one, obviously snake draft. And so you'll pick a little bit picking in round four, it's going from 12 to one, obviously snake draft. And so you'll pick a little bit sooner in round four if you're in that five slot
Starting point is 00:52:50 than if you're at the one slot. And if you commit to three running backs from the one slot, you're basically passing on every single receiver with the first 47 picks. It's not going to be a great group of receivers that you're looking at at that point, but it's not going to be a great group of receivers that you're looking at at that point, but it's not going to be terrible either. You'll just have a bunch of number twos as you're starting. You'll have two number two receivers instead of a number one receiver.
Starting point is 00:53:13 Not that you'll have a great chance of getting a number one receiver if you're in that five slot, but at least you're picking a little bit sooner for that. I think you're right in terms of the receiver, but I think the problem is that that third running back then becomes a little bit right in terms of the receiver, but I think the problem is, is that that third running back then becomes a little bit tougher in terms of who he could be. Because I think if you want to pull off this strategy, you want to have three stud running backs. And I think if you're talking middle of round three, that's like, right. But you know, as we typically start to see our, our top 12 consensus, whoever that may be from 10 to 15, but you're talking about like,
Starting point is 00:53:47 do you really feel comfortable passing on what could be a better number one wide receiver? Like maybe Kenny Galladay or Ridley or one of these guys to take Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley or Le'Veon Bell. Like, I think if you're going to do this, if you're going to do what Chase says, go robust running back, those three backs have to be superstars or the potential toeon Bell. I think if you're going to do this, if you're going to do what Chase says, go robust running back, those three backs have to be superstars or the potential to be superstars.
Starting point is 00:54:10 I'm hoping the third guy is really good. Melvin Gordon might make the cut as your third. He might. I don't think you feel jazzed about Melvin Gordon. Right. I think if you want to do this, kind of what Heath was saying, you want to come away with Christian McCaffrey,
Starting point is 00:54:27 Miles Sanders, Austin Eckler, like three guys like that, or Clyde Edwards earlier, or Josh Jacobs, you know, somebody who's got the chance to be top five. And I don't know if Melvin Gordon or Gurley or Chris Carson,
Starting point is 00:54:39 if he's still in that range, Le'Veon Bell, if he's still in that range, you know, four net, whatever the case may be like, those guys don't feel like this is the right way to go like you want to get three guys that that are a little bit better so it is it is interesting depending on where you draft so
Starting point is 00:54:51 it could be middle of the first round could be uh the beginning of the first round and look if you're at the back end of the first round you're getting two really good running backs and hoping a third guy potentially falls to you that you like uh gary in a town northeast of Florida that begins with J. Jacksonville? There you go. Jacksonville. Deer McLean, Riggs, and Murtaugh. Well, Riggs and... Lethal Weapon. Lethal Weapon is Riggs and Murtaugh.
Starting point is 00:55:18 Yeah. Combination, I guess? Hmm. I don't know. Alright, should I pay more attention to the rankings for full ppr or non-ppr for a half ppr league keith which one do you tend to point people toward when they ask you this question uh i would say full ppr just downgrade the guys that you know are benefiting more from that format so dave give me a couple guys that if you're looking halfPR, that if you're telling somebody to look at their full PPR rankings
Starting point is 00:55:46 that are downgraded. Well, I think Eckler could certainly be a little bit of a downgrade just because he's so reception needy. Le'Veon would be another one that I wouldn't be nearly as excited about in half PPR compared to full. James White, three coins. Of course, yeah, those guys too. Anybody where the primary reason why you're drafting them
Starting point is 00:56:06 is because of their catches and not because of their other talents. Those are the guys that you're going to downgrade. Heath, any receivers that you downgrade when you're telling people, look at my full PPR rankings, but we're talking half PPR? The first one for sure is Julian Edelman. Keenan Allen, I would say would be another one. I think a really easy way to do it is if you look at the non-PPR rankings and the PPR rankings, anyone who's significantly higher in PPR, that's someone you need to downgrade a little bit in half.
Starting point is 00:56:39 Yes, full PPR, half PPR, non-PPR, it sometimes gets a little bit tricky. We need to do a better job of showing and displaying our half PPR, half PPR, non-PPR. It sometimes gets a little bit tricky. We need to do a better job of showing and displaying our half PPR rankings. We'll certainly answer all of your questions whenever you have them. So thank you for sending them to us with our Apple Podcast reviews. We'll be back later this week with Dave's Bold Predictions, joined by Jake Silley of The Athletic, and then Keith's Bold Predictions,
Starting point is 00:57:00 joined by Liz Loza of Yahoo Sports. Thank you gentlemen for tearing apart my Bold Predictions. This has been Yahoo Sports. Thank you, gentlemen, for tearing apart my bold predictions. This has been fun. We miss you, Adam Azer. Come back soon. We'll talk to you soon. Gotta go. Bye.

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