Fantasy Football Today - Jerry Jeudy Profile: Get Excited! (06/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Jerry Judy enters his third season looking for his first 900 yard season. That will probably come, but just how good will 2022 be for Jerry Judy?

Starting point is 00:00:27 Find out right now on Fantasy Football Today in 5. It has become apparent to me that Jacob Gibbs is kind of a Jerry Judy fan. If you heard the Corlin Sutton podcast, he thinks the data favors Jerry Judy when it comes to picking that best wide receiver for Russell Wilson. So let's get into that. And you talked about man versus zone splits and how Sutton was better against man than against zone. And Teddy Bridgewater has actually been much better

Starting point is 00:00:55 against man than Russell Wilson has. So, all right, now what does all that mean? So that was bad for Sutton. What does all that mean for Judy and his man zone splits? Yeah, so zone coverage is, like we said, the predominant scheme in the NFL to 65% of the time. Um, and that should favor someone like Jerry Judy. He's running more of these short yardage routes. Typically those types of targets, um, do get, you know, favored versus own defense. And, um, that has been the case. Judy's been targeted more against zone, but it hasn't really translated to huge results

Starting point is 00:01:23 because Teddy Bridgewater simply could not figure out zone coverage last year. And not just last year. Teddy Bridgewater, among 40 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts since 2019, ranks 32nd in yards per attempt for zone. Russell Wilson ranks fourth. And so that is a huge upgrade for Jerry Judy. Judy's career yard per hour run rate is up 36% versus zone coverage compared to man. So definitely a better fit than Teddy Bridgewater in terms of the types of coverage schemes he's going to be facing. What kind of routes are you expecting from the Broncos receivers

Starting point is 00:01:57 and which routes does Russell Wilson excel on? Yeah. So I had an article really digging into this on Sportsline. It's pretty interesting. Russ has been significantly more likely to target receivers on go routes and crossing routes. Go routes, you know, it's fun having DK Metcalf on your team. I think it's kind of my takeaway there. Mike Evans is really the only player who's been close to Metcalf

Starting point is 00:02:20 in terms of just being dominant on go routes. The other one that really stood out was the crossing routes. He's been 12% more likely to target those than the NFL average, and he's been 33% more efficient when targeting crossing routes. Russell Wilson has. And so Tim Patrick is the guy who really stood out when I dug into the go route data. Patrick Esch ranks fourth in yards per hour run rate on go routes among 68 players with at least 200 routes since 2019.

Starting point is 00:02:46 So he definitely could benefit from that. I think there might be some noise there with DK Metcalf. Corden Sun's rate is nearly identical on go routes. And then when I dug into crossing route data, Judy's numbers really jump off the page. Among 40 route receivers with at least 100 crossing routes since 2020, Jerry Judy ranks sixth in targets per out ranks 6th in targets per outrun and 8th in yards per outrun. So I think he is the guy who's most likely to benefit

Starting point is 00:03:09 from the crossing routes, and I think the crossing routes is probably the set that's more likely to stick of the two here because I think Metcalf might have inflated those go-route rates a little bit. All right, and I know that even if Russell Wilson weren't coming to town, you'd still be on the Jerry Judy train here

Starting point is 00:03:23 because you think that the numbers really favor him. Yeah, I think on a per route basis, Judy definitely made improvements in 2021. Obviously, it was a really disappointing year for him overall, but on a per route basis, there were some encouraging things to take away. So his yard per route run rate actually increased in year two, and that was with him running a significantly shortened route tree. His average depth of target was down 28% from year one to year two but his yard per hour rate went up 12 percent which is pretty rare um those two generally kind of follow each other um he was actually one of the most efficient and explosive players among receivers that fell in the 10 to 11 yard average depth of target range which is a group with some really good receivers cd land

Starting point is 00:04:02 tyree kill brandon cooks dj mo more he was significantly above the group average in yards per outrun and explosive reception rate which is the percentage of targets that gain 15 or more yards so the smallest sample size and overall i didn't do a whole lot um on the season but like he really was with the role that he's playing one of the most explosive receivers in the n. And going back to that group, DJ Moore is the guy I'd really like to emphasize. Him and Judy, their average depth of target and their yard per route run rate were within 1% of each other. So they run similar routes, drawn similar targets, and producing similar efficiency in terms of their ability to create yards.

Starting point is 00:04:39 And Judy's explosive reception rate was actually 14% higher than DJ Moore's. So on similar usage, Judy had really pretty identical efficiency to Moore, who's one of the most efficient young receivers, one of the best young receivers in the NFL. And I don't think people talk about Judy that way. I think there were expectations that he could become that kind of player, but he definitely doesn't get the type of respect that DJ Moore does. But he has been similarly efficient on similar usage.

Starting point is 00:05:07 And then the last thing we hit on this in the Sutton episode, when he was on the field in 2021, Judy was clearly Denver's wide receiver one. He was 63% more likely to draw a target than Sutton when they were both on the field on 224 routes. And then 83% of Sutton's fantasy points came with Judy off the field. So when Judy was on the field, he was the guy,

Starting point is 00:05:26 um, everything lines up well with the fit with Russell Wilson. I'm expecting big things in year three. All right. I love it. I love it. It's great stuff. And the way the reports have been pretty favorable towards Sutton and

Starting point is 00:05:37 Patrick, not so much since Judy, that means you might get yourself a steal and Jerry Judy's ADP is already a lot lower than I would have thought it was. Uh, so thank you to Jacob Gibbs and I hope all of you enjoyed this awesome information we will talk to you next week on fantasy football today

Fantasy Football Today - Jerry Jeudy Profile: Get Excited! (06/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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