Fantasy Football Today - 🚨 Jimmy Garoppolo to the Raiders! Davante Adams Still Round One? (03/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 13, 2023

JOIN OUR BRACKET CHALLENGE! cbssports.com/fft The Raiders are signing Jimmy Garoppolo and we've got all of the angles covered. What does this mean for Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs and Hunter Renfrow? Does Garoppolo's lack of success throwing the ball downfield spell trouble for Adams? Would we prefer Waller or George Kittle in 2023?  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Free Agency Week, the first bonus podcast of the week. We're hoping for a lot of these. Jimmy Garoppolo to the Las Vegas Raiders. Been working on Jimmy Garaderlo. Didn't really work. So I don't know what the title of the show. But anyway, welcome, everybody.

Oh, boy, you don't look amused. Dave, you don't look amused by Jimmy Garaderlo. No, I'm trying to think of a way way to like tie it into the Las Vegas somehow. Like, uh, this will be for the old schoolers, Jimmy Garoppolo towers. Okay.

What is that? You guys won't get it, but you know, if you were cruising the strip in the nineties or earlier, you know what the polo towers are all about. Oh, okay. Well,

that's Dave. Jamie's here as well. We're going to break down this, uh, transaction here and hope for a lot more today. We're going to do nightly recap episodes during the week, but any big breaking news, we'll have bonus pods before that. And you're going to hear different viewpoints.

We'll have Heath on later tonight to talk about Garoppolo, all those types of things. Okay, so let's start with Devontae Adams. Jamie, value up, down, or the same? Is he still a first-round pick? Devontae Adams. Jamie, value up, down, or the same? Is he still a first-round pick? Devontae Adams. Down. He is a second-round pick, but he's still a top-10 wide receiver. I think you just look at what Derek Carr was last year, and I think as bad as he was, this is a downgrade for this Raiders passing attack

because Jimmy Groppel, I believe, is worse. So I think it's a good move by the Raiders if they want to remain competitive because the quarterback market clearly is not going to be very robust and what they were going to get in the draft, probably not someone was going to help them right away. So to go get a guy that's familiar with Josh McDaniels, I think will be good for their offense as a whole. But I think in terms of Devante Adams fantasy value,

you know, just looking at the numbers here, you might have in front of you, but you know, downfield passes certainly not a strength of Jimmy Garoppolo. And some of the metrics are terrible when it comes to what he does throwing the ball down the field. And that's actually something Derek Hart did pretty well last year. Top 10 in throws of 15 plus yards and 30 plus yards down the field. So I think for Adams, you have to hope that his reception total will still remain at a good level, that he'll still be able to find the end zone and that his talent will help

bring Jimmy Garoppolo up. But I just think that this is a slight downgrade. So a guy that was a borderline top five receiver is now closer to 10 for me. Dave. We don't know if he'll be asked to keep it short and neat and tight, because that's kind of what they're asked to do in San Francisco. And if Derek Carr was asked to air it out last year, then maybe there's a chance Garoppolo airs it out.

I just don't know if he's that good at it. Jamie, you mentioned the metrics. There's definitely something to that. I did double check on this. I compared Garoppolo with Rogers and Carr just on 2022 stats. And this will speak to him keeping his passes short, not taking a lot of chances deep. His completion rate was better than Rodgers and Carr last year. His yards per attempt was better than Rodgers and Carr last year. It was actually 7.9. Touchdown rate was better than Rodgers and Carr last year. That's 5.2%. And even his interception rate

was better than Rodgers and Carr at 1.3%. Bottom line is this. He's a serviceable quarterback. If they ask him to throw downfield more to Devonta Adams, I'm sure he'll be good with it. Probably won't be as effective as with Carr, but that's only by a little. Definitely won't be as effective as with Aaron Rogers. I still have Adams as like top, let's call it like a top seven fantasy wide receiver,

easy round to pick a non PPR borderline round one round to pick and full PPR. So which wide receivers are ahead of him? Give me the, you know, all the names, even the obvious ones, Jefferson cup, chase Tyreek digs lamb.

That's full PPR. Hmm. Jamie is same, same list there? Lamb included? Oh, yeah, for sure. Well, I mean, you say for sure, but we got a new offensive coordinator. We've got a new philosophy in Dallas, right?

So I just want to throw that out there. But okay, Lamb is ahead of Devontae Adams. And I just think what's so interesting about Garoppolo is, Dave, you mentioned the yards per attempt. He's always an absolute star in yards per attempt. I gave this stat last week. In four straight seasons, he has been number one in yak per completion. Yards after catch per completion.

Number one, Jimmy Garoppolo. That is the system at work. He's accurate, throwing short passes, and they get going after that. Comparing Debo Samuel to Devontae Adams on paper, there's just no comparison. Comparing Darren Waller to George Kittle, actually some fairly similar. You just look at ADOT and yards after catch.

There have been some similarities more like three, four years ago for Waller than the last two years. So let's shift now. We know Devontae Adams, easy second-round pick, top seven wide receiver. Let's shift now to Darren Waller. Dave, I'll give you the first word on Waller. Uh, when do you think he gets drafted? Is this good for him? Is this bad for him? What do you think? I think it's going to be fine for him just because this offense that he's in is going to open things up for him. When he did play, he did get good opportunities, especially in the red zone. I think that Garoppolo can win with these receivers in the red zone and Waller provided

that he stays healthy, we'll get his. So he remains a top 10 fantasy tight end. Where do I have him overall? Sorry, I'm going to need four more seconds. I currently have him as a round eight pick. Might not get him in round eight, and that's okay. But I think that he doesn't lose a ton of value just because it's Garoppolo instead of Carr. Jamie, I got some comments in the chat. Kittle, because I mentioned all the yak and all the ADOT and all that stuff. Kittle is better at yak than Waller. Kittle may be the best yak tight end ever. Yeah, I mean, for sure.

But first of all, yak is easier to get when you have shorter targets. And also, is that a system thing that helped Kittle may be the best yak tight end ever. Yeah, I mean, for sure. But first of all, yak is easier to get when you have shorter targets. And also, is that a system thing that helped Kittle? I'm not taking anything away from Kittle, but Waller was pretty good at it too. So I don't know. There's a lot here. We haven't really had a lot of guys leave San Francisco. I mean, you could say Mostert and Wilson were good last year,

but they were in a system that was kind of similar. But we don't know how these players are going to do away from San Francisco. I mean, you could say Mostert and Wilson were good last year, but they were in a system that was kind of similar. But we don't know how these players are going to do away from San Francisco. So I don't know. Give me your thought. I just want to that as a preface here. Give me your thoughts on Waller compared to Kittle. I think Waller wins slightly with this, you know, so not to a degree where you're going to overvalue him or at least you shouldn't. But I think that this is the type of quarterback that will help him, you know, so a guy that's not going to challenge downfield, but is going to look at some underneath routes again,

just looking at his history. And obviously there's still a coach and play caller in place that has gotten great success out of his tight ends. Clearly had one of the best of all time with Rob Gronkowski. So we really don't know how Waller working with Adams over the course of the full season will look because we didn't see it last year, you know, with, with Waller missing so much time. And so, you know, the, the natural downgrade that he would have had last year, which may have carried over to his numbers on a per game basis is probably something you have to look at. But I

think just in terms of the quarterbacks that they were looking to get or, uh, or landing on, uh, this is probably as good a situation as you could find for him. So a guy that likes to throw to his tight ends that likes to throw shorter routes, uh routes for a tight end that, you know, has got still some playmaking ability, even though he's getting a little bit older and a little bit more brittle. So I think he wins slightly with this. So I don't think you're going to get Darren Waller in round eight. I think you're looking at a guy that's probably going around six,

depending on how quickly tight ends come off the board. And that's probably what will end up ranking him as well. Okay. Kittle or Waller, guys? Kittle. For now, i'll take waller just until we see what the quarterback situation looks like in san francisco because you know if it's pretty starting then i think you gotta like kittle if it's trail ants we just don't know especially if everybody's healthy there did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe.

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Okay, how about real quick thoughts on Hunter Renfro? Another guy I think who wins. You know, again, just looking at the situation. You know, not somebody, again, you should overvalue, but a quarterback that probably likes to throw underneath and a receiver that's, you know, made a living with a lot of underneath routes. Very good route runner, underrated route runner. And again, we didn't really get a chance to see the full picture

of what this Raiders offense could look like over even a 10-game stretch. So good late-round target. I think double-digit rounds, you want to get your hands on Hunter Renfro and PPR. Agreed. Very well said. I've been taking a look at what Garoppolo's numbers have been over the past three years. I'm looking at him by year on his throws of 16 plus air yards. Last year, completed 34.1% of his passes of 16 plus air yards at 9.9 yards per attempt.

How do you do? How do you get 9.9 yards per attempt when your air yards are 16 plus? Goodness gracious. Two touchdowns. you do how do you get 9.9 yards per attempt when your air yards are 16 plus goodness gracious two touchdowns yeah this this isn't it for Devante Adams this is definitely a hit so it kind of plays into what we're saying with Hunter Renfro the tendency for Garoppolo maybe he just takes it with him to Las Vegas is that he throws short that's going to be good for Hunter Renfro if they ask him hey we don't care what the pass has been. Let's take those shots.

We've got Devontae Adams for crying out loud. I don't know if that ball is going to be in a good place for Adams to get. So don't look at this. It kind of makes you wonder what really went down with Derek Carr to push the Raiders into this direction. I think you also, to be a little bit more positive, and not that I disagree with you, Dave, but like this is the best receiver he's ever going to play.

You know, so he is going to hopefully bring up Jimmy Garoppolo's game. And that's the hope. You know, I mean, you know, maybe the more controlled atmosphere playing in a dome, you know, so those home games will matter more for Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, with throwing the ball down the field and Devante Adams gets open as, as well as anybody in the history of the game, you know, so those things will hopefully help as well. But again, you're asking a guy who's getting older to now go from, you know, a two-time MVP to now his, you know, third quarterback in three years and how much of it is the slippage and you

know you you pointed this out adam on a recent show what adam's numbers were when waller was there and versus waller not being there and renfro not being there you know still very good but just not the elite level player that we saw during that stretch of games when those guys were gone and so that was the concern for adams going into last season was he's never shared the field with this quality of playmakers, mostly Waller at the tight end position, but even Renfro, what the year he was coming off of. So, I mean, I think just overall it's a downgrade, but the hope would be is that Devontae Adams, the player, elevates the quarterback play and maybe Garoppolo's throws downfield look a little bit better.

Can I bring up another issue with Garoppolo? I would say now's the time. Yeah. It's 10, two and six. Those are the numbers of games missed that he's had over the past three seasons. And so who's,

who's the guy that's going to play when Garoppolo is out? Is it going to be somebody who we're not going to have much confidence in? Is it going to be somebody who we might have more confidence in than Garoppolo? Could it be a rookie? That's another factor, a small one, that I would put on all these pass catchers because we can't lock into Garoppolo, and maybe we don't want to lock into Garoppolo, being the quarterback that's going to throw to Adams all season long.

Well, they're picking what? What, seven? Is that right? I was going to say, I thought it was seven or eight. Seven, yeah. Let me double check. I don't want to be wrong on this.

It's not going to be Jared Stidham, by the way. That's going to be Levis-Richardson range if you look at it right now. Well, unless Indianapolis gets handsy. Yeah.

That'd be something if all four are gone by the time they get to seven. And that's another thing to consider. Which the Raiders might are gone by the time they get to seven. And that's another thing. Raiders might know by the way. Well, but right.

But that's another thing to consider is if they do have a quarterback at seven, are we even talking about Garoppolo for a full season here? And do we factor that in? Cause if things go South, I could, I could see them go into the younger guy. Do we factor that in when we look at all the pass catchers? I think,

I mean, Dave just brought that up, you know, so I think that just depends on who they're getting, you know, so, you know, Levis and Richardson are considered the projects of the top five guys and how quickly will they pick things up and how quickly will the coaching staff want to go to? It doesn't have to be that, that, that season goes south. You know, it could be that they just feel that that quarterback in particular is ready. So 34 million guaranteed million guaranteed for Garoppolo,

that's easy to move on after one year, I'd imagine. So it's a situation where you can see a young player getting it quickly and they realize, okay, this kid's ready, whether it's Richardson or Levis or whoever. Okay, let's talk. By the way, Dave brought it up from an injury standpoint. I just wanted to bring it up from a, okay.

The Raiders, maybe the season's not going as they, as they plan. Let's turn to the new guy. But so, yeah. All right. Anyway, let's talk about Josh Jacobs,

fantasy value up, down, or the same. Same for me. You know, I think this, if, if they were going to go with an inexperienced quarterback,

or let's say they had decided to keep Jared Stidham, who left to go be a backup in Denver, I would have been much more concerned. But this is still a quarterback that I think defenses will respect to some level, at least probably on the Derek Carr level. Again, as we talked about, the fact that he's still motivated for a longer-term deal, that he's only playing on the one-year franchise tag, so I still think that is out there for him. I'm not going to overvalue Josh Jacobs based on what he did a year ago,

so he's still a second-round pick for me, but still in the top 10 running back range, so no change for me at all. And Garoppolo's thrown to his running backs 20% of the time each of the past two seasons, 28.3 in 2020. So it's not like he's one of those quarterbacks that only looks downfield. Obviously you've a quarterback that likes to take the easy way out, simple, short throws. They're going to use their running backs. So first and second downs, Jacobs will be out there.

Garoppolo will find them. It's a plus. It's fine. It doesn't change anything for Jacobs. Okay. And Garoppolo last thing here is Garoppolo. So let's see. The last three times he's played, you know, fairly close to a full season, he was number 17 per game, number 19 per game,

number 20 per game. That's in six point per passing touchdown leagues. I think I asked you this last week. He's not going to crack your top 20, right? No, especially not when the rookies get to their destination. Okay, but 2QB league, solid number two guy, great number three guy.

Not the back end, but a number two guy. Yeah, I think once we get past the draft and they don't take somebody, then you got to be a little bit more encouraged by his super flex and 2QB value. But if they draft a guy, then you're looking at probably taking Garoppolo and that guy

if those are the only two teams worth of quarterbacks that you take. All right. Good stuff, guys. This is our first bonus podcast of the day. Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. Can we just make it happen already? I mean, you don't want to just wrap up Robert Woods right now?

Robert Woods, Sterling Shepard. Who would you guys rather have, Sterling Shepard or Robert Woods? Go ahead, Jamie. Take that one. Did you know Sterling Shepard had 10 targets in Week 2 and 10 targets in Week 3? I mean, he is Daniel Jones' guy. I mean, he's coming off of an Achilles and an ACL.

Whatever, whatever. I feel so bad for him because he had the chance to really take that next step after what he was playing off of prior to the Achilles injury and the Terrence ACL. Oh, my God.

Poor guy. I know. It stinks. All right, guys. So we'll be with you all throughout the week with all the latest. By the way, join our bracket challenge. If you win the bracket challenge with you all throughout the week with all the latest by the way join our bracket challenge

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