Fantasy Football Today - 🚨Jordan Addison Suspended 3 Games: Move Up T.J. Hockenson? (08/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Starting point is 00:00:20 All right, everybody, welcome to the show. This is a bonus edition of fantasy football today, presented by FedMGM, the sports book born in Vegas. Adam Azer, Jamie Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings. It comes as no surprise, but we do get a three-game suspension. This is probably about what we were expecting for Jordan Addison. Addison was the number 25 wide receiver per game last year in PPR. And non-PPR, he was number 18 per game.

Starting point is 00:00:43 63 catches, 875 yards, nine touchdowns in 15 games. So right now on Fantasy Pros Heath, Jordan Addison is 83rd overall. He's wide receiver 36. That's his ADP. Everyone was expecting some type of suspension. But where do you have Addison right now? I believe I am 77th overall at wide receiver 38. And I had originally projected two games for him, four games for Rashi Rice.

Starting point is 00:01:08 So this is one more game. But I think a lot of people, including Theo Griminger, have made a good point on Twitter today. You don't take zeros for those three games. He doesn't play. You're going to have somebody else that you can fill in. So maybe draft him a little higher than he projects for 14 games. Yes. I brought this up on July 18th.

Starting point is 00:01:28 This is when the news first came out that their court cases were settled or whatever. He had pleaded no contest to reckless driving. Rishie Rice was sentenced to 30 days of jail time and five years probation. And I mentioned that Julian Edelman was suspended for the first four games of 2018. His ADP was wide receiver 30.

Starting point is 00:01:48 He was 72nd overall. He finished his wide receiver 22, but he was wide receiver 13 per game. He was a unique case, though, because he was coming off a missed season after a torn ACL, I believe. Alvin Camara was suspended for the first three games of 2023. He was RB21 in ADP, 62nd overall, and he finished his RB12 overall, even with the suspension, and RB5 per game. And Jamie, you know, I brought it up then. He just brought it up, you are not going to have buy weeks during Jordan Addison's suspension.

Starting point is 00:02:18 So let's keep that in mind. You should be able to fill that spot. And you're drafting him probably as a bench player anyway. So where do you have? Jordan Addison, and then we'll talk about what this means for Jefferson and Hawkinson and McCarthyson. I just wrote the story for the site, so I looked, Dave, Heath, and I all have him in a similar range. So again, as Heath alluded to, we were kind of expecting this once the court case or the plea deal happened in July, as you're referencing. So I think that's the

Starting point is 00:02:47 best approach is, you know, you're looking at it as around seven pick where he's in that mix of receivers with like Ricky Pearsall and Cooper Cup and Debo Samuel and those type of guys. I know Heath hasn't ranked a little higher, but I think that's where they are from an average opposite standpoint. Jacoby Myers, those type of receivers, where in a two receiver league, you were never expecting these guys to be starters, maybe flex options. In a three receiver league, it makes a little bit more, a little tougher just because they may have been in the mix to be one of your starters. But I think the nice thing about it is he has now the ability to still perform like he did. And if you look at his season last year, like the back half of the season, he was

Starting point is 00:03:24 amazing. He averaged in his last nine games, 17.7 ppr points per game, six of those games, he was 13.3 ppr points or more. So there's a lot to like about the situation. However, we are now going into a year of somewhat uncertainty, as we were last year, but once again, because of J.J. McCarthy taking over Sam Donald. And so you have a quarterback question, which may be same, maybe better, maybe worse. We just don't know. And now he's missing three games. So the difference, I think for Addison, Addison versus Edelman, for example, you were saying wide receiver 30 is you kind of knew what Edelman's role was going to be. I think we know what Addison's role was going to be. You knew what Alam's quartermaster be too. There's just the question mark of,

Starting point is 00:04:06 can J.J. McCarthy help this extremely high-end second receiver on his own team going into his third year produce at a higher level? That's I'm a little skeptical of. So I'm happy to take him in that round seven range as one of my top reserves and hopefully once he starts playing from week for on the the crappy thing is man he's missing the falcons game the bengals game and the bears game like those are three pretty amazing matchups especially two of those yeah and i think another reason for caution with him is there've been a lot of t j hawkinson and justin jefferson absences over the last two years for addison now he was playing with both of them the second half when he was so awesome as jimmy reference but a lot of that was touchdown based he

Starting point is 00:04:52 he's had an exceptionally high touchdown rate each of his first two years in the NFL. And one thing you do worry about with first year starters at quarterback is that touchdown rate. So he doesn't actually have the catch or yardage profile of a wide receiver who produces it's a low end number two on a per game basis, but he scored so many touchdowns that he's produced like that. So the missed three games, the fact that Hawkinson and Jefferson, and we think Jefferson will be healthy by then, are both healthy and the fact that. you have a first year starter at quarter rack, I think maybe pump the brakes just a little

Starting point is 00:05:26 bit on Edison. I do think, though, and you're right, he scored 19 touchdowns in 32 games, 20 total touchdowns with a rushing score. The thing that you look for him, at least the way like I view him, I view him like what we saw from McClellan last year, Cortland Sutton, the last two years, how I think D.K. Metcalfe will perform. James and Williams, you know, we'll keep going down the sliding scale. He's going to be touchdown dependent to be a standout fantasy receiver. And I think everything you said, Heath is right. It's just there is an unknown here. We are talking about

Starting point is 00:06:01 what Sam Donald was last year and how he resurrected himself. This is still a first round talent that when he was drafted, you know, in a spot to be one of the better quarterbacks in this class, which we know had some pretty high-end production last year. So can't he live up to that billing. It's really a fascinating question to see how this is all going to get answered. And the reports have been mixed. You know, I think when you see a situation like this, you expect struggles. So I don't really look at that as a concern. You know, Caleb Williams are struggling. You expect that. You know, new coach comes in, new system. It's how he's struggling and some of the reports. I think part of it is he's going against one of the best defenses in the

Starting point is 00:06:42 league every day. And they're giving it to him every day. He's doing it without Justin Jefferson on the field for a big portion of this. that's going to change a lot of things when that guy's out there. Can McCarthy get to a point where this offense is playing at a high level and then Addison slots back in? It could be great, you know, even in the Minnesota, in the, excuse me, the Pittsburgh game. But, like, it could be great because of the soft schedule

Starting point is 00:07:03 to start those first three games. Like, you really hope to see McCarthy get off to a good start. Yeah, and for Addison, you know, he is a pretty big presence in the red zone and in the green zone and in the end zone. He kind of out targets Justin Jefferson in those areas of the, the field. So I hope that continues. This is an opportunity, obviously, for T.J. Hawkinson to get off to a really good start. This is a guy that we said, we're not drafting T.J. Hawkinson much when we did

Starting point is 00:07:29 the tight ends preview, so we will talk about that. You know what? Let's take a quick break here, and we'll focus on the rest of the Vikings after this on fantasy football today. Searchlight Pictures presents The Roses, only in theaters August 29th. From the director of Meet the parents and the writer of Poor Things comes The Roses, starring. Academy Award winner, Olivia Coleman, Academy Award nominee, Benedict Cumberbatch, Andy Samburg, Kate McKinnon, and Allison Janney, a hilarious new comedy filled with drama, excitement, and a little bit of hatred, proving that marriage isn't always a bed of roses. See The Roses, only in theaters, August 29th. Get tickets now.

Starting point is 00:08:11 Welcome back, everybody. Funny promo there. So, yeah, Hawkinson, you guys want to say anything else about Addison, go for it. Otherwise, I was talking about Hawkinson here, because it's not really going to change much for Jefferson. It might get him off to a better start. Hawkinson, again, we talked about him in the tight-end preview. He's a mid-round pick, one that we've been skipping. But this obviously gives him an opportunity to make his mark

Starting point is 00:08:36 in the first three games of this season. The research I've done, he's had about a 19.5% target share when he's played with a healthy Jefferson and a healthy Addison in 2023 and in 2020. It was a pretty similar target share. But what we need to be pointed out was that the Vikings defense got elite last year and their pass attempts went down.

Starting point is 00:08:57 They threw 548 times in 2024. In 2023, they threw 672 times. In 2022, 631 times. So that's a big question I have is how much are they going to throw? Are they going to have this elite defense again and not be as reliant on the pass as we saw last year?

Starting point is 00:09:16 All right, anyway, what does this mean for Hawkinson Heath? Are you more likely to draft him now? Yeah, and I want to clarify, like, when we were talking about how we haven't drafted him, I think that's mostly because of how late David Nizoku goes. And we all like David Nizoku better than T.J. Hawkinson, and he almost always goes after him. But I have Hawkinson projected very close to Sam Leporta and higher than Mark Andrews. And I think the real key is going to be something we just talked about with Jordan Addison,

Starting point is 00:09:45 who's done so well in the red zone and the green zone and scoring. touchdowns and that's kind of been one area where hawkinson's not been that great and does this mean that maybe he gets off to a better touchdown start then that could that could elevate him he had while he seems like one of those guys that's never really been elite and he's just kind of like a fine pick to be a mid tight-in one he was tied with travis kelsey for tight-in one when he tore his ACL in 23 and finished the year tied-in two per game. So there's probably a little more upside there than we gave him credit for in the tight-in preview.

Starting point is 00:10:24 I think the one thing that this does now is you sort of look at it. It's easy to tear these tight ends, right? Because, you know, if you're looking at the YouTube page, if you don't want to put Kittle with the top two, it's fine. But I think he deserves to be at least closer to them. So the first three guys, that next group of guys is going to define the position this year. Yeah. Laporta, Najoku, Kelsey, and Hawkinson.

Starting point is 00:10:48 Like, this is where always we get tripped up by these groups, right? Every year, for the most part. Yep. And so it's when are you buying them? So I just hope that with this news, that Hawkinson doesn't get pushed up to a point, not necessarily in the tight end rankings, but the overall rankings and the overall ADP where you're reaching for them. Because remember, it's just three games.

Starting point is 00:11:11 Yeah. If this was longer than that, then I think you could justify him as tight. and four. But just the fact that it's three games, and again, it's still McCarthy, still first year quarterback. We hope, you know, you referenced it on, on the show today, Adam, on Tuesday in regards to Giovante Williams, how you said Chris Godwin, two years removed, felt better with the ACL tear. You want to see what Javante Williams looks like. You want to see what Brise Hall looks like, you know, as we get a way further away from the injury, and Hawkinson will be, you know, only a year and a half, but still hopefully back to, you know, what he was in that

Starting point is 00:11:44 20-23 season when he was, as Heath alluded to, you know, pushing to be tight in one. Like, he was amazing. So it's a good situation for him, but I just don't think you want to overvalue him. So if you like him better than the joku or better than Kelsey, that's perfectly fine, you know, better than Leporta, perfectly fine. I just don't think you want to go crazy with now of a sudden you're taking him in round five. I think we've gotten better with mid-round picks at tight end. The last two years have been solid. I'm not saying every pick's been good. There have been some bad mid-round picks at tight end, but there's bad mid-round picks at every position. But last year it was Andrews in round four, McBride in round four, Kincaid in round five,

Starting point is 00:12:19 Kiddle round five, Kyle Pitts, round six, Ingram round six, Jake Ferguson, round seven, David DiJoku round seven. So that's probably 50% success rate there. Not terrible. It used to be worse than that. The kiss of death to be drafted in the mid rounds at tight end. All right, that's it for this bonus podcast. Thank you so much. The rest of the receiving corps. I'm sorry. Thank you. Yeah. I think it's, you know, no one seems to care about this except for me, but Justin Jefferson averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game in PPR last year. That was the lowest in four years for him. The previous three years, 19.5, 21.5, 20.4.

Starting point is 00:12:59 He averaged at least 10 targets or 9.8 targets per game in three straight seasons. And last year, what do you average about nine targets per game? I think on the nose, right about. So a little bit down, lower target per route run rate. I think that's because he had Addison and Hawkinson, personally. So, Jamie, what do you want to say about Jefferson and anyone else in this receiving core? I'm really not looking at Jefferson any differently. You know, again, those first three games, if McCarthy is good, if he's at least as good as Sam, I hate saying this, at least as good as Sam Donald, then Jefferson is going to be fine.

Starting point is 00:13:33 Top three receiver, you know, top four, top five, whatever you want to, you know, put him in. Like, I know, I know how Adam, you like Nico Collins, you know, so a lot of people probably in a similar situation. Like, like, like neighbors, maybe better, like Pooka Nakua better, whatever. Jefferson, for me, is still going to be wide receiver three. You know, if you really are tied, you know, tossed, if it's a toss up for you between C.D. Lamb and Jefferson, this might push Jefferson ahead of him. Perfectly fine. Don't have a problem with that. It's really about the other guys there. And I think, you know, deeper leagues, Jalen Naylor would be the one. Thomas, maybe you have a different

Starting point is 00:14:03 opinion on this. You know, I look at this receiving core and it just screams a lot of, guess this, you know ambiguous that like just not a lot of certainty on who it's going to be but nailer to me is somebody that in those first three games a great dFS play you know if you're in a a guillotine league that you know usually they're 18 you know uh fantasy managers like he might be a good fifth receiver flex whatever the case but i don't want to change my opinion on these guys just because again as you said to start the show like you're not starting you don't have to start these guys you know 14 16 team league you know if you want to handcuff addison and maybe nailer it's fine but I don't want to, you know, go with the guessing game

Starting point is 00:14:42 until maybe we see something, you know, concrete. In the two games Addison missed last year, 13.3 fantasy points per game for Jalen Naylor in a very Jordan Addison way. He had three catches in each game at 85 total receiving yards, but scored touchdown both games. I wonder, I haven't looked at it. I'll look at it right now.

Starting point is 00:14:59 So this was Weeks 2 and 3 that Addison missed. Let's see if there was a spike for Aaron Jones. There was six targets in each game. And you wouldn't be surprised with it. with a first year starter and Jordan Mason added if the Vikings just go a little more run heavy if they're able to early on. Holy cow, six targets in each game for Aaron Jones

Starting point is 00:15:19 on 26 and 28 pass attempts. But remember, that was without Hawkinson and Addison. You're right. Oh, gosh, you know, I just got Vikings checked there. That's a good point. Thank you, Thomas. All right, are we good here? Anything else?

Starting point is 00:15:38 Can I go eat dinner now? I think McCarthy's value doesn't change either. Same thing. Yeah. Can I go eat dinner now? I mean, might as well just keep talking until the draft starts. If you're listening to this, you know, after we've recorded it, and it's not 7 p.m. Eastern yet.

Starting point is 00:15:53 Hop on over to YouTube.com slash fantasy football today and check out our live stream. We're doing a live mock draft. Jamie, Dave, Thomas. Wow. For Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard, and Ben Shragger. I'm out of Mazer. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:16:09 All right, I'll have played a super call tonight.

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Fantasy Football Today - 🚨Jordan Addison Suspended 3 Games: Move Up T.J. Hockenson? (08/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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