Fantasy Football Today - Late-Round Steals! Best WRs in Rounds 7-9 (07/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 12, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Rounds 7-9 of a 12-team league have been terrific for wide receivers in each of the last two seasons. We've had Ja'Marr Chase (2021) and DeVonta Smith (2022), among others. So let's look at this year's crop (1:40) and discuss some of our favorites (6:00) including a lot of young players like Treylon Burks and Jordan Addison ... News and notes (13:10) on Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley and then some questions about the WRs in Rounds 7-9 including what we are looking for in this range (17:15). Are we looking for a league winner? A steady WR2? Could Kadarius Toney be either of those things? ... Who are the best values in this range (25:30)? Which players do we typically avoid (29:30)? Why do people avoid George Pickens? Then we discuss Mike Evans (35:40) and anyone else we may have missed (40:00) including Michael Thomas and Quentin Johnston ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just got to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Wide receivers in rounds seven through nine of a 12-team league. Is this a good range for wide receivers? You better believe it. Over the last two seasons, we have actually had seven wide receivers finish as top 12 guys who were

drafted in round seven through nine. That's, that's pretty good. So in 2021, that was Jamar chase Debo Samuel. They were both top five wide receivers, uh, that season.

And Jalen Waddle was wide receiver 12 last year. Amandra St. Brown was wide receiver 7, Devontae Smith 9, Amari Cooper 10, and Christian Kirk 12, and then Brandon Ayuk was wide receiver 15. So this has been a really great area to draft wide receivers. I'm Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Chris Towers. Chris, are those the headphones you usually use, or are they different? Yes, I just

replaced them. These are the headphones that they sent us like... They are horrible. Six years ago or so. They sound good. Oh, yeah. They look short. Yeah, they do. The little earbuds had worn off, and I just replaced them.

Feeling good. I can hear you guys loud and clear now. I remember putting those headphones on once and seeing myself in the camera and being like nope we're gonna get some different headphones but uh as long as they sound good heath uh wide receivers in rounds seven through nine that's pretty good huh seven top 12 finishes in the last last two seasons what am i wrong or if i really i wish that we had like transcriptions or but if i really went back and searched is it possible that two or three years ago i heard you do this segment and say you know we haven't had a lot of success out of round seven through nine i feel like this used to be an area where we didn't get a lot of wide out of round seven through nine. I feel like this used to be an area where

we didn't get a lot of wide receivers. Like the wide receivers were generally drafted in the first five or six rounds or really late. Is that, is that right or wrong? So that is, it's certainly been better the last two years. The year before that we had, um, yeah, no top 12 the year before that we had one yeah uh i would say you should not count on unless you think this is a trend you should not count on this continuing have three or four top 12 receivers being drafted after round six or at least in round seven through nine unusual um although justin jefferson i think was around 10 pick his rookie year so he's actually not counted as that well a lot of people dropped him though year, so he's actually not counted as that. Well, a lot of people dropped him, though,

so I think he counted as a waiver wire. That is true. Yeah, I mean, the whole thing, the guys that you mentioned was Amonra St. Brown, Jamar Chase, if we count Justin Jefferson, those guys are all really young, very early on in their careers, who got dinged for,

let's say not great reasons. And at least a couple of them, like Jamar chase, I was talking about this on Twitter yesterday, but like he was falling in drafts because of a few reports that he couldn't catch the ball in training camp. There was never any reports that he was losing playing time or that anyone was really concerned. It was just beat writer saying, wow, he dropped a wide open pass and it was like that that turned out to be pretty dumb of us to fade that guy and then i'm honestly brown played like an elite wide receiver for like a seven game stretch at the end of his rookie season and then it was just like yeah but did he really

and it turns out yeah he was just really good. Right. You make it sound like everything is so predictable. I guess in hindsight it's so predictable, right? But in those two cases, Jamar Chase was considered one of the best wide receiver prospects of the last decade. And Amon R. St. Brown had showed us high-level production before. And we just kind of didn't, or not but you know we discounted it yes and you know if you're looking for guys in this range who could play up to that level a guy who has shown that he can play at that level before that's probably a better bet that's mike evans i was thinking the

young guys were probably better bets than the old guys but yeah I guess maybe the guy who has shown it that's that's an interesting like the first person I thought of when Chris was doing the the great wide receiver product prospect was Jackson Smith and Jigba and Jordan Addison's right there with him now they're not Jamar Chase but I I look in this range and for me it's and I think two years ago it was all first, second, or third-year wide receivers. Last year it was about half and half. But I'm looking at the guys who are first, second,

or third-year wide receivers in this range and maybe a little bit of Gabe Davis also. Yeah, it's a lot of young wide receivers here. It's Traylon Burks, Tadarius Toney's only in his third year, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Jordan Addison, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore in his third year, Jamison Williams, and some older guys.

I mean, you know, some of the players that as Chris, you were kind of recapping the young guys, the veterans would be Amari Cooper. Really, that's more or less the only one. Christian Kirk was wide receiver 12 per game. But I guess Mike Evans would be the Amari Cooper of this group.

But he's the only one that's really proven it. Marquise Brown's proven it. Michael Thomas is an exception. Yeah, Michael Thomas would be the exception if he can stay healthy. But if you're looking for an Amon or a St. Brown comp, I kind of think Marquise Brown fits that. Yeah, I see that. We did see him.

He played as a top 10 wide receiver for the first six weeks of last season. There's a lot of things that have changed since then, but he's the one guy of this group who has done it who isn't old. Yeah. All right, so why don't we get to your favorites or favorites. Heath, I think we did your top three before we went on the show. Who's your top three from this group? Maybe it'll help if I read.

15 wide receivers being drafted in rounds 7 through 9 on NFC since June 15th. It's about 100 drafts. Traylon Burks, Mike Evans, Kadarius Toney, Marquise Brown, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Jordan Addison, Jackson Smith and Jigba, Gabe Davis, Cortland Sutton, Brandon Cooks, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, Jamison Williams, and Michael Thomas. Give me your top three, Eve. My top three are the, not quite the three youngest, but three of the young guys, Traylon Burks, then Jahan Dotson, then Jordan Addison. All three of those wide receivers, I believe in my top 30 in full PPR. I think the cutoff here is wide receiver 33 is where we start this list.

But it's those three young guys. Burks is at number one because of that trio, obviously, he has the most likely path to being an actual alpha wide receiver. I think if Ryan Tannehill just is healthy and Burks is as advertised, we should expect him to thoroughly dominate targets for the Titans. Chris, you got a top three from this group? Yeah, I think it's probably Marquise Brown, Jordan Addison, and I'll say Jackson Smith and Jigba.

Yeah, I guess. Well, that's the number one on... It's actually number one and two. Burks and Dotson did not make your top three. Yeah, I like both Burks and Dotson. I'm somewhat skeptical of Burks. He really didn't show very much as a I, I'm somewhat skeptical of Berks. Just, I, he really didn't show very much as a rookie and there were extenuating

circumstances. Obviously the quarterback play, the fact that he wasn't fully up to speed during training camp and dealing with asthma and conditioning issues and all that. But I, I found him less impressive than I hoped he would be. Certainly. Yeah.

It seemed like he was gaining some momentum. He scores 18 points against the Packers, follows that up with four catches for 70 yards against the Bengals. Then he has a 25-yard touchdown catch against the Eagles. This was around weeks 11 through 13, and he suffered a concussion on that play, and that was his only target of the game. I agree. I mean, look, the overall number is 444 yards in 11 games and one touchdown, not good for Burks.

But obviously there's something, Heath, that you really like about him. Aside from the fact that he's just going to be the target hog, hopefully there's got to be something you like about his potential to perform. Well, yeah, I think you look at what he did in college, and it was a very similar situation, playing on a team that ran the ball well more often than they threw it. Arkansas did not have a good pass attack at all, and he was like 35% of the team's receiving yards and 50% of their receiving touchdowns, and that's A.J. Brown is kind of what he had to do

to be a number one wide receiver in this offense, when he was healthy at least. All right, so for Heath wide receiver in this offense when he was healthy, at least. All right. So for Heath favorites in this range are Burks, Dotson and Addison. For Chris, it's Marquise Brown, Addison and Jackson Smith and Jigba. Give you a couple stats about round seven through nine wide receivers. There have been so I use different sources of ADP, but when I'm looking in past years, I use fantasy football calculator. And according to that, there have been 82 wide receivers selected in these rounds over the last six seasons. That's 13 and a half per year. And 22% of them have finished in the top 24.

So that's not bad. Like I said, the last two years have been really good in terms of top 12, seven top 12 finishes from round seven through nine over the last two seasons. Most of these guys that finish top 24 per game get at least seven targets per game. There have been actually 20 wide receivers who finished top 24 per game

and 17 of them had over the last six years. 17 of them got at least seven targets per game which would be 119 in a 17-game season. And the other stat is the offenses they're on. 16 of the 20 were on top 18 offenses. There weren't a lot of wide receivers who... How are we about top 18 pass offenses,

regular offenses, total points? Yeah, scoring, yeah. The guys who did it on kind of below average offenses were Allen Robinson and Brandon Cooks. And Amari Cooper, they were like 18th to 20th or something like that. And I have a hard time, like when you go to that low, top 18, I have a hard time.

I think there's very few offenses that we should be sure could be even close to sure would not be top 18 this year. Yeah. Who, who comes to mind? Like definitely will not be top 18. Definitely. I wouldn't say that.

I would say like, would be one of the five worst offense. You'd kind of want to avoid, avoid one of the catastrophically horrible offenses. I don't think the Patriots will be top 18. That one's a tough one just because their defense is so good that they could have a bunch of short fields. Because in 2021, they were sixth in scoring.

They had a handful of defensive touchdowns, obviously, but they also just had a lot of short fields. But no, I agree. That's not an offense I expect much from. I would say Houston and Carolina would probably be the two. And then Arizona is right on that cusp where if Kyler Murray comes back in September, I think they'll probably not be one of the five worst offenses.

But if he misses significant time, then obviously all bets are off and Tampa could be. Yeah. It's funny with Arizona was reading that they're going to be under center a lot more this year. I'm just thinking about this guy coming back from an ACL injury, probably missing training camp and preseason and then altering his style of play.

And it's kind of scary. I, I would be surprised if they really played under center a lot. That just doesn't seem like the kind of thing you should do with Kyler Murray as your quarterback. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong,

but I would be pretty surprised if they actually did that. Well, they went to a play-action-heavy offense, I guess, and got him on the move like maybe that i don't know yeah like has he ever taken a snap under center in his life probably on like fourth and one all right so we'll get back to these guys in a little bit we have a little bit of news for you including the alvin camara news from yesterday we'll talk about that we have so many great podcasts please go to c CBSSports.com slash podcast

and see the whole list, including if you don't have time for the full-length show, Fantasy Football Today in 5, hosted by Chris Towers. Check that out. Fantasy Baseball Today with Chris Towers. Fantasy Baseball Today in 5, featuring Chris Towers. And a lot of podcasts that Chris is not on, but

are still great. So please check it out. CBSSports.com slash podcasts. Let's do our news and notes here. Alvin Kamara is going to plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge, and he no longer faces felony charges. But the reason why we didn't freak out and do a bonus podcast is because this doesn't really matter for the NFL necessarily. They can still suspend.

Heath, did anything change? Oh, Chris, sorry, you wanted to jump in there? Well, it does change. I believe if you plead or are found guilty of a felony, you are automatically suspended for at least six games. I think that's how the policy works. So it does take away the trigger of an automatic minimum six-game suspension.

But it doesn't necessarily mean, okay, he's not going to get suspended. Right, well said. someone in our chat says chris also hosts this american life and cereal the dude is everywhere um yeah heath did this change anything for you with camara not yet no i still am basically expecting six games if you get four it'll be better if it's's eight, it'll be worse. Alright, Justin Jefferson was asked to rank the top five quarterbacks in football and he didn't say Kirk Cousins. The honesty of this man.

Oh my goodness. He said, but he said, look at this, Mahomes won. Three, Burrow. Four, Hertz. Five, Allen. Who did he say was number two? Aaron Rodgers. I don't know if he ranked them in order. May not have ranked them in order, but he did say Aaron Rogers.

Zach Rosenblatt of The Athletic thinks that Michael Carter is going to begin the season as the number two running back behind Brees Hall, but he thinks Israel Abinacanda will eventually take over that role unless the Jets sign Dalvin Cook. Chris, if you were drafting Jets running backs, what would you

do today? I guess I would have Carter ahead ahead of abinaconda but i i think that's it's a what's the term it's dubious now there's a specific term for an unsettled backfield that people like to use and outside of breeze hall it's it's extremely unsettled right now. So even if Michael Carter opens up as the number two guy, we know what he is, and it's not a particularly special player. So Michael Carter is more likely to give you 12 points in the event of Brees Hall missing time,

but Abunakonda has more upside in the long term, I think. And there was a report earlier today, I believe, from ESPN's Diana Rossini, that the Giants and Saquon Barkley remain at a stalemate, and Monday is the deadline to get a new deal before he has to play on that franchise tag or not play.

She actually tweeted today that his week one status versus Dallas is in serious doubt if he does not get a deal worked out. Well, now I think the Cowboys are going to win that game. I don't know the last time the Giants beat the Cowboys. It's like once in the last like five years. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, more Giants trivia and questions about wide receivers in rounds seven through nine. We'll be right back.

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and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Here we go. Round seven through nine, 15 wide receivers currently in that range, 73rd to 108th overall. And what are you looking for here is my first question. So are you looking for a league winner?

Are you looking for a guy that's hopefully just like a steady number two wide receiver. Heath, what are you looking for in rounds seven through nine? I am looking for someone who is ascending, not descending, for the most part. I kind of hit on that at the beginning, but I am looking for someone who I think has a chance to break out and be something more than where he's being drafted.

I think a lot of times, and with the Monro St. Brown was a situation Chris rightly illustrated where we were doubting what he did last year, but he was still a young ascending player with guys like I think if the consensus is that Mike Evans is falling to the seventh or eighth round, it's more likely that we're right. And this is a terrible situation because he's a guy that has the production to justify a much higher cost. So I'm less interested in Evans and Michael Thomas, more interested in the younger guys. How about you, Chris? What are you looking for here?

Yeah, I think another way to put it is just you're looking for big hits, not little hits, right? It's really hard to see a scenario where Mike Evans has 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns, right? He feels like a safe bet for 950 to 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns. But given that offense, given where he is on his career arc, it doesn't seem like there's a chance for him to be a huge, huge win. And I think that's what you should be looking for. So, you know, the guys like Traylon Burks, John Dotson, they are less likely to be solid starters than Mike Evans, perhaps. But it's a lot easier to envision a path where they just take a big step forward

in year two and absolutely become must-start fantasy players. So I think that's what you should be looking for but that's more or less true everywhere in the draft i think so obviously over the last two years there have been big hits i keep saying it's seven wide receivers in this range finished top 12 over the last two years but as heath mentioned before that wasn't really the case so we can say burks is an example of a guy who could lead his team in targets, has a lot of talent, was a first round pick. But to be fair, he is the first guy off the board in this range. He may not even be part of this discussion for a lot of you drafting. He

may end up as a sixth round pick. So when you look at this group, I know we always want a big hit, but do you feel like those guys really exist? Or, I mean, I'd be fine with any of these guys just being like the 20th best wide receiver. You know what I mean? That'd be a pretty big hit. That's like 15 spots higher than where we're drafting them. Well, but it's not a Jamar Chase, Debo Samuel.

Do we even entertain the thought of, wow, this guy could be top five, or that just happens to happen and it's kind of... Do we even entertain the thought of having the Amonra St. Brown season from last year, or that just happens to happen. Do we even entertain the thought of having the Amon Rasim Brown season from last year, or if that happens, great? I think, in theory, Michael Thomas could get there. I'm very skeptical that there's actually any chance

of Michael Thomas bouncing back in that way, but I suppose it's possible. I think Marquise Brown, because it could be a bad team that throws the ball a lot, that's another one. But no, I don't think anybody here really has top five upside given their combinations of talent and situation. Like the young guys are all not in ideal situations right away

and you'll probably have to be patient with all of them. So no, I don't think any of them has top five potential really. The highest upside I would say is Burks, Brown, with all of them. So no, I don't think any of them has top five potential, really. The highest upside, I would say, is Burks, Brown, probably Tony, because, I mean, what if he did play 16 games with Patrick Mahomes and he actually was the number one,

like everybody said, all offseason long? I'm not drafting him this high and I prefer Sky Moore at cost, but we know what his athleticism is and his per route stuff um i think jsn just because if tyler lockett's washed there is a universe and i don't think it's that unreasonable to where jsn is a much better wide receiver in the nfl than dk metcalf i think he

could just be the one and dk could the Mike Williams number two. And then that's probably it. Realistically. Okay. Yeah. Cadareous Tony had five green zone targets and caught a touchdown on four of them. Yeah, that's

amazing. Like the Chiefs are the you're playing with Patrick Mahomes is the one place where we can't just say LOL regression. Well, no, they schemed him. I mean, that's amazing like the chiefs are the you're playing with patrick mahomes is the one place where we can't just say lol regression well no they schemed him i mean that's where yeah where any of them actually targets yeah they were plays designed for him well no no that's but what i mean was like was he actually like running a route on any of them because i remember one of them being like the flip pat the the you know like you, which is, I think, speaks to how the coaching staff feels about his playmaking ability, but also, I think, speaks to how little they trusted him to do, like, anything last season, other than, you know, catch the

ball three feet away from Patrick Holmes and run. Well, Chris, I don't think you were here for this, but I just want to make sure that you don't insinuate that it's because it's possible that someone might not understand Andy Reid's offense. Because Andy Reid's offense is not difficult for young wide receivers to understand. I just said that when he drafts a good wide receiver, let me know how that guy does as a rookie. Because Deshaun Jackson and Jeremy Macklin are both very good as rookies. Tyreek Hill was solid. But I'm not going to say, oh, well.

Tyreek Hill was solid because they designed a role for him in the running game my thing on cadarious tony is the number of wide receivers who produced as little as he did in college and there are reasons why he didn't produce a ton in college he's playing multiple positions uh but then produced as little as he did in their first two NFL seasons and then became stars is probably a pretty short list. That's not to say he can't do it, but I'm very skeptical. His talent just jumps out at you. He's so good. He's very quick.

He's so good. He moves very fast. I don't know if that's the same thing as having wide receiver talent in the NFL, but he is a good athlete. Yes, he makes people miss probably at a higher rate than any other receiver in football

if I had to guess. I just want to go through this three-game stretch he had with the Giants as a rookie. He had 6 for 78 at the Saints. Then he had 10 for 189 at the Cowboys. I believe he got kicked out right after halftime in that one as well. He had three. Which I think is worth noting,

given his inability to get on the same page with multiple coaching staffs. He had three catches for 36 yards on three targets the following week against the Rams. He did that on six snaps before leaving with an injury after one drive. He was dominating one game against the Cowboys, which apparently he got kicked out of at halftime, and one drive against the Rams, who were a great defense. I saw that this guy could really be, for a small, small stretch,

he could be a legit receiver. Could he do it for a full season? I don't know. But I believe more in him as a receiver than I think some people do. And of course we believe in the Chiefs and being able to use him the right way. He's tough. I haven't drafted him in any mocks, but I feel like I should. Well, the reason I don't draft him is because he's mostly surrounded by legitimate wide receivers like the a guy with his track record who has done like a miniature will fuller thing um very miniature will fuller thing in past years would be round 10 or later pick i think i don't really understand why he's...

Like, I'd love to be the Kadarius Tony guy. Why do I have to like him more than Jahan Dotson to do that? So let me ask you then, I already asked you who your favorites are. For Heath, that was Burks, Dotson, and Addison. For Chris, it was Marquise Brown, Addison, and Jackson Smith and Jigba. Who are the best values? So maybe guys in the round Jackson Smith in Jigba. Who are the best values?

So maybe guys in the round nine range or late round eight. Who are the best values? That's a tough question because it depends on what outcome you're looking for. Like Brandon Cooks as wide receiver 43 feels like a really safe bet to beat that by 10 spots. How much does that actually help you win a fantasy championship? I don't know. So I would say Cooks and Michael Thomas have pretty decent chances of beating their ADP,

but I don't know if either of them is going to be impactful. For me, it's Marquise Brown at 36. I think he probably belongs in the tier ahead of this group. Yeah, I've got Marquise Brown at 36. I think he probably belongs in the tier ahead of this group. Yeah, I've got Marquise Brown right at 36. I think Burks and Dots, I think the guys who I said my favorites are also the guys who I think are the best values. And I like Gabe Davis here a lot.

I think his injury and Josh Allen's injury really dragged his numbers down. I've said it ad nauseum, so I won't say it again. But, I mean, he's the number two guy for the Bills. You're not going to find a ton of great offenses here. I'm sorry. You missed it. They drafted Dalton Kincaid and moved him to slot-wide receiver,

and he's going to get all the Cole Beasley targets. He's not going to have as many targets as Gabe Davis, I wouldn't think. So, I just love it. And he's toward the back end of this group. I mean, he's kind of late in round eight, I think. So that probably makes sense. Love that value. This is a reasonable place for him to go.

It probably would have been a reasonable place for him to go a year ago as well. And if he had been drafted as wide receiver 40 last year and then had the season he did, he probably goes a little earlier than he is right now, right? i think we can talk ourselves into ah he's going to take another step forward and i i struggle because he has such a limited route tree like he basically can win on vertical routes and that's it he doesn't really get separation he's big and wins contested catches but i don't know it it's it's kind of the same thing as george pickens catches, but I don't know. It's kind of the same thing as George Pickens, where I just don't know how much room there is to grow

because it's really easy to grow when you play 40% of the snaps, right? And you can, well, it's just he has to get on the field more. It's really hard to grow when you're already running 90% of the routes or 95% of the routes like Gabe Davis was, and you've just got to get better. I think the injury, the high ankle sprain that I think he missed one game and then came back and played 98% of the snaps the next game or something.

If that was really limiting him, I think that's a reasonable argument, but I sort of think he is what he is. I don't know that he is what he is. Cause I think Josh Allen. So in the first nine weeks of the season, weeks one through nine, Josh Allen had 13 pass attempts of 35 or more yards, and five of them went to Gabe Davis.

Weeks 10 through 17, he had four attempts of 35 or more yards. That's a huge... I mean, that's a third. And two of them went to Gabe Davis. So I know Gabe Davis can't be consistent. I mean, I don't think he can be consistent. I'm not counting on that. But I do think he could have more big weeks because Josh Allen just couldn't throw the ball deep.

And then Allen himself said he started feeling better in Week 18. And I know Davis had a bad game. He had a bad game Week 18, but I think he had 10 targets. And I think he's an end zone target for Allen, too, because he's pretty big. I think the George Pickens comparison is a good one. The only thing I would say, and I think Pickens is actually higher than Davis on this list. Yes.

If you're going to be that type of guy, I'll take the guy playing with Josh Allen. Oh, absolutely. I'd much rather have Davis than Pickens. davis dan pickens and i think we could have a year where davis catches what 60 passes for a thousand yards and scores 12 touchdowns and finishes like just because it has what that one spike here boy people really don't like george pickens so let me get to uh let me get to the who would you avoid in this range anyone you look at this let's say nope skip it's george pickens see told you but like the thing is a lot of people really really like him i think he's a very controversial player i think it's untrue to say that people don't like george pickens somebody that's ever been on this show likes george well

because i think it depends on like your you where you fall on the range of like stat nerds to like got that dog in him because i think people who put a lot of faith in physical profile and highlights and projecting from there love george pickens because he absolutely like the ability to make contested catches is really really impressive and he's a physical athlete and was, it was his first year back from torn ACL. I think he only played like, he had like five snaps after coming back his last year in college or five catches,

something like that. So like you can make a case that he's got room to grow. It just, it feels a lot like the case for Cortland Sutton last year where, Oh, you write off the, the middling production because he was coming back from the injury. And it turns out the middling production was pretty indicative of who he is as a player.

I just it's a somewhat limited profile and it's not a profile that tends to win a lot in the NFL. Yeah, I think wide receiver 37 round eight. Like, I'm fine. I'm not targeting him, but I'm okay with that on the hope that Pickett takes a step forward and Pickens learns a new route. I think the guys that I've, I don't think I've drafted Michael Thomas.

Maybe I did in one. I'm not necessarily, I'm kind of putting Brandon Cooks into the Allen Robinson, AJ Green. If they look like they're washed at that age, believe them. So I haven't drafted a lot of Cooks. And I don't want any Cortland Sutton at all. That might be it. Sutton, Cooks, Thomas.

Oh, and Jamison Williams. I don't know. Like he's going higher than this in some of the high stakes stuff. And I just don't believe that a guy who played six games last year and played like 15% of the snaps and now isn't going to practice with his team for the first six weeks of the year. I think he's going to come in week seven and probably lay a stinker, probably have a, I think he has a bi-week eight or something.

I bet you can pick up him off the waiver wire. Right. He does get to participate in training camp at least, right? Yes. And then it's like the two weeks before he's allowed to play, I think he can return to practice. But yeah,

it's asking a lot for a guy who had a single catch last year. Very good catch. I don't know about the two weeks part. That's a pup thing, right? Is that a suspension thing too? I thought, because I think Deshaun Watson

was practicing a couple weeks before he was actually cleared to play. I could be wrong on that. So, yeah, Pickens, back to Pickens. He goes before, listen to these names. I mean, I wouldn't say he goes in this particular ADP. Well, at least it wasn't me. Usually when that happens, Chris, I think, oh, no, my internet just went out.

I have a dumb look on my face. Thankfully, this time it was Adam. No, it was Adam with a dumb look on his face. Am I back yet? You're good. You're back. I don't know what happened. Okay, anyway, Pickens in this ADP goes ahead of Dotson, Addison,

Smith and Jigba, Gabe Davis. So, obviously, we would not take him there. But he had 800 yards as a rookie. That's pretty good. That's a lot more. Michael Pittman had 500 yards as a rookie in 13 games. And then he was over a thousand yards. He was almost at 1100 the following year. Darnell Mooney had 631 yards as a rookie. As a sophomore, he was 1055 yards.

But both of those guys did so in situations where the competition for targets around them was mostly garbage. No offense to anybody who was on those teams. No, you're right. Deontay Johnson, who I have been down on through his entire career as a fantasy producer, the one thing I will agree with everybody on is there are few players in the NBA or the NFL or NBA, either one, who can earn targets like Deontay Johnson. That dude gets open. So I don't think there's much, unless Deontay Johnson gets hurt, I still think it's more likely that Pat Frymuth has more targets than George Pickens this year.

Okay, I'm just saying, yards per target were terrific, George Pickens. Better than Calvin Ridley, better than all the guys I mentioned in his rookie season. I do see why people like George Pickens. It helps yards per target when all

of your targets are on go routes. We're probably oversimplifying George Pickens a little bit. I don't think he's... He's a high A guy. I get it. Jacob Gibbs posted this yesterday. Pickens was one of two players in the NFL last year, certain, whatever the

minimum was, to run more than 30% of their routes as a go route. He was at 39.7. So he's a pretty big outlier. Was Dave Davis the other one? That's not all. What? Was Dave Davis the other one?

No, Quez Watkins. Okay. Okay, let's take a break here. We'll talk about anything we did not get to after this. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. get to after this. to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life.

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Traylon Burks, a favorite for Heath. Chris likes him, but not the most in this group. I guess we should talk about Mike Evans. I made the case for Godwin on yesterday's show, on Tuesday's show, as the Amari Cooper of the rounds four to six guys. And maybe Mike Evans is also the Amari Cooper. You know, I get the issue. But here's a fun stat on Mike Evans.

Over the last two seasons, I only went back two seasons, I wanted to see, what's the lowest target share that a wide receiver who finished in the top 24 has had over the last two seasons? And both years, it's been Mike Evans. That makes sense. 18. No.

It was about 15 and about 17 and a half those two years. And I was looking at it because Jordan Addison, what kind of target share could he get up to 18%? That could be tough based on... Well, and they're not going to throw the ball 700 times. The more you throw, generally speaking... They might throw the ball 700 times.

That's the thing that I'm really struggling with. Can we go back to Evans real quick? Tampa? Are you talking about Tampa or Minnesota? Tampa. Oh, I meant Minnesota was going to for Addison. That's what I mean. Tampa, you know, Mike Evans has had really low target shares.

That's as much a function of how much they threw and how much Tom Brady threw to the running backs. The targets to the running backs were an extension of the running game, so they count as pass attempts. But when you're talking about Mike Evans' target share, I certainly don't think you project mike evans for a 17 percent target share in an offense that's likely to throw the ball 150 times less than they did last year that'd be a problem if he had a 17 yes yes there is no chance he even lives up to this

if he has a 17 percent target share this i don't know that he's going to live up to this. I've got him in this range-ish. He's wide receiver 36 in the projections, and then I moved him down a little bit. Why the pessimism, Heath? Because I think he was wide receiver 16 per game last year, and everybody feels like he had this horrible season. He did. Well, he was great for the first half of the season.

He had a terrible slump in the second half. Chris pointed out many times he drew a lot of pass interference penalties. Well, that's worth something. If he had just caught two of them, we might be thinking differently. But an unusually high amount of pass interference penalties. And then in Week 17,

he had 200 yards and three touchdowns, 40-something fantasy points. Then he was good in the playoffs. So I would say his year probably wasn't as bad as it looked on paper. That's my take, Heath, but you are pretty down on Mike Evans, it seems. I have been, and I was wrong last year because they just kept throwing it 750 times. But so much of his production for other guys, we would say that's not sustainable. And he's done it enough to where we don't say that. But another guy who had done that until the wheels fell off was Adam Thielen. And their production has looked pretty remarkably similar if you just take Evans back one year and go against Thielen, who I think is two years older than Evans. Um, but the bigger concern for me is like, even if he gets to a 20% target

share, I don't think that means 120 targets. I don't think he has any chance of mass matching his per catch per target per route efficiency. And I don't think they're going to score enough touchdowns for him to be a double digit touchdown guy. So I, it, it kind of seems to me like Chris Godwin needs to get hurt for Mike Evans to justify ADP. For the record, I do not draft Mike Evans.

Yeah, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. And I think he's an example of a guy who, even if he does hit, it's not going to be as a top 12 wide receiver. You know, I think the best case scenario for Evans in this offense is probably like wide receiver 18, which is fine. You'll take that. You'd be happy if he does that. But it's, I think if you're dreaming on Traylon Burks, if you're dreaming on even Michael Thomas, you're dreaming on a better outcome than that. And the difference between Evans and Amari Cooper, because I didn't draft any Cooper last year and I regret it,

is Godwin. Right. It's just if Evans were the number one guy, then sure, this would be good value. All right. Marquise Brown we've talked about was terrific with Kyler Murray and without DeAndre Hopkins. How do you think he'll be with Colt McCoy for however long that is,

Chris? Probably not great, but I think usable. I think both him and Rondell Moore actually have a path to being viable fantasy options, even without Kyler Murray. Cause I, I'm not actually sure Colt McCoy is a significant downgrade on Kyler

Murray as a passer. I think it's worse for the offense as a whole, clearly. But just in terms of their passing production, they might actually throw the ball more with Colt McCoy as the quarterback. And I think it's probably 220 inefficient yards per game, but Brown could get 75 of those, and Rondo Moore could get 60 of those on 12 targets. And I think it's probably going to be a bad offense, but it might not be a terrible offense for those two pass catchers.

I don't think anybody else is going to come close to mattering. For Dotson, Heath. Yeah. So do you care? Does Curtis Samuel bother you at all? No, he bothers me more for Antonio Gibson than he does for Jahan Dotson. I think if Curtis Samuel is really involved,

it's going to be in the screen game and stuff closer to the line of scrimmage. I don't think Curtis Samuel can hold a candle to what Jahan Dotson does beyond the line of scrimmage. I don't think Curtis Samuel can hold a candle to what John Dotson does beyond the line of scrimmage. Addison, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba, Gabe Davis. Who's your favorite in that group, guys? Addison. Yes, Addison is my number three wide receiver among this group. I'd go Addison, Gabe, then JSN.

I keep moving JSN up just a little bit because of what I said earlier. I do think he's a remarkable talent. And if there's going to be a guy, kind of the chase thing, he's not quite chase, but it's like, well, you shouldn't have doubted that guy no matter what, because he's that guy. Yeah. Just to be clear, I know you're not saying this, but there are a lot of really good rookie receivers who don't have great fantasy seasons. I think of CeeDee Lamb. He was kind of, although I think that's a little unfair

because that was the year Dak got hurt, right? Yeah, I think the one thing I would say is that Tyler Lockett is also the guy that we probably shouldn't overlook and we have for five years in a row. And he just keeps beating expectations. And maybe this will be the year he doesn't, and Jackson Smith and Jigba ends up being a big part of that offense.

But I think the likeliest outcome is that Smith and Jigba is barely fantasy relevant this season. Oh, wow. I would agree with that. I think it's more likely. There's very little track record of that team using three wide receivers. It's been a heavily concentrated offense

between Metcalf and Lockett. Last year, I think it was like 52% target share combined for them. And that's not to say that Smith and Jigwe can't change that. He's obviously more talented than their wide receiver three they've had there. But this is not going through the Pete Carroll era.

I'd be surprised if they've ever had a third wide receiver with more than like 700 yards uh they have had they have had we you know one of these days we should just thank them for being so predictable and so good for fantasy for so long and they've never had a very rarely had two running backs that mattered so the first not at the same time no two running backs that mattered so the first not at the same time no at the same time right so the first two picks of their draft were so contrary to everything we've seen in the pete carroll you know russell wilson era maybe we'll finally get the uh the tyler lockett trade to the chiefs that i've been clamoring for. Hey, there you go. Would you rather have that or Hopkins? Lockett.

What? Maybe a lot cheaper. Okay, sorry. So in the Pete Carroll era, there was one season where they had four 600-yard wide receivers. That is the only time since 2007 that they've had more than two wide receivers with 600-plus yards. But we just saw them throw up more than they ever did with Russ, right? That's fair.

I mean, they finally got a good quarterback. All right, let's talk about the rest of this group. These are the guys we haven't spoken much about. Cortland Sutton, Brandon Cooks, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, Jamison Williams, and Michael Thomas. Sutton, Cooks, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, Jamison Williams, and Michael Thomas. Does anybody, Cooks, Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, Jamison Williams, and Michael Thomas.

Does anybody really want any of those six? I'm fine with Elijah Moore. I do think that there's a chance that that ends up being a pretty high-volume pass offense. The fact that, well, not a middle of the pack, which would be an improvement, and I think he's going to be the clear number two there. fact that well not a middle of the pack which would be an improvement and you know i i think

he's going to be the clear number two there so i i think elijah moore is a decent bet in that in the same way that jackson smith and jigba and jordan addison are where the likeliest outcome is he's not that useful for fantasy but there's there's an upside case there and then i don't know courtland sudden probably not right just how bad he was how bad he's been i mean really he was awesome the first like five games of 2021 and then as soon as jerry judy came back from that ankle injury courtland sun i think averaged like 22 yards per game so in the games that Jerry Judy played in 2021. So I've been running a bit for like four years straight with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf career stats

and how, for me, it's how close they are and Lockett's always been slightly better whenever I choose to do it. But Gibbs does a much better job of the Jerry Judy, Cortland Sutton on the field together and Sutton has just been... Just miserably awful. But, but, but...

But Judy's not always on the field. No, no. He's never had a good quarterback. He's never had good quarterback play. Including the one he's currently playing. Correct. If you buy into Russell Wilson bouncing back, then I think wide receiver 42 for Cortland Sutton is fine.

I think it's fine. I poo-pooed Brandon Cooks earlier, and I just want to say of this last group that we've gotten to, Brandon Cooks is my favorite, and I do actually think I might have him ranked slightly higher than where he's being drafted. And I'll say we haven't really thrown Quentin Johnston into the mix with Smith Ajigba and Jordan Addison.

I think there should be a little gap between them, but there's certainly an upside outcome for him. Keenan Allen's missed time the last couple of seasons. I think it was a hamstring injury last year that kept him out. That's always a concern with a wide receiver in their 30s. Mike Williams always battling something. Quentin Johnston was the second wide receiver taken in this draft. He's a big physical guy who probably has a more nuanced skill set

than I think the consensus. I think a lot of people just view him as, okay, this is Mike Williams. This is the next Mike Williams. They're going to get rid of Mike Williams next year. He showed more of an ability to do stuff after the catch in college than I think he gets credit for. But, yes, 100%. The after the catch stuff is weird to me, but it's true.

Yeah. He did a lot of like DK Metcalf, like screen and go stuff. But he also, I don't think he's as good at catching the football as Mike Williams, especially in traffic. So he's a wide, like Chris said, shoot for the home run, not the single. He's a wide, wide range of outcomes guy because I think he could be worse than George Pickens, and I think he could be better than Mike Williams.

And I will point out while we're on the topic of Mike Williams, he's kind of a best case scenario for a George Pickens type. You know, Mike Williams has a pretty limited route tree, pretty limited skill set, but he's really, really good at what he does. And you'll see those type of players, you know, pop every once in a while. Devante Parker had the one, I think it was an 1100 yard season. It's just, it's hard to do it consistently. Right. I just, I guess the issue I have with that is I don't think we should just pitch and hole George Pickens into being a certain type of player after one

year. Sure. Last thing I'll say is Michael Thomas is the last wide receiver drafted in this range. He was a top 10 wide receiver per game last year. Technically, technically correct. It was the best kind of correct.

It was pretty interesting to see how well he did in those three games. You know, it was, he didn't blow the door. He had a lot better quarterback then. He had, he had James who actually was throwing like for 300 yards a game or something.

I was going to say like James Winston, four fantasy wide receivers versus Derek Carver for fantasy wide receivers in their career. It's Winston by a million miles. It's Winston over just about anyone. Um winston by a million miles that's winston over just about anyone um all right well that's it for today's show thank you very much for watching and listening everybody tomorrow we got a fun show i think we're doing the feud tomorrow or jepper yeah i think fantasy okay do i get is dan back uh no friday Friday. No, I only play games against Dan now.

Dan would come in and be like, I can't believe you did this to me. You put me out with Heath. Heath is the greatest. I haven't studied. I haven't done this. All right, well, you'll hear that on Friday. But we'll talk to you on Thursday on Fantasy Proposal.