Fantasy Football Today - League-Winning WRs in Rounds 4-6 (07/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 7, 2022

We often get Fantasy superstars in Rounds 4-6 at the wide receiver position. Today we'll help you figure out which WRs will emerge as stars and outperform their average draft position. First, do Dave and Jamey approach drafts as if they will be selecting two WRs in this range? And what do we know about WRs on teams that are very run-heavy (4:00)? ... News and notes (13:15) as we get Dave's take on D.J. Moore. He is not as high on Moore as Jamey and Heath are. Then we've got some WR trivia (18:50) and our favorite Round 4-6 WRs to draft (22:40) plus the ones we often avoid at their cost (23:30). Dave and Jamey debate Darnell Mooney and Diontae Johnson ... Which WRs in this range are we nervous about missing out on (32:30)? What kind of seasons do we expect from Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf (39:00)? We love Brandin Cooks and Michael Pittman, but are they league-winners or just very safe options (43:45)? Finally, we get to the rest of the group (50:45) including Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, the Broncos WRs and more ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Last season, Cooper Cuff, Mike Evans, Deontay Johnson, and Chris Godwin were all drafted in rounds four through six. In 2020, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Keenan Allen were all drafted in rounds four through six. That's why we're spending time focusing on this draft range. You get wide receiver league winners in rounds four through six. That's why we're spending time focusing on this draft range. You get wide receiver league winners in rounds four through six. You also get Jamie Isenberg and Dave Richard here joining me.

I'm Adam Azer. We're going to talk about roughly 18 wide receivers on today's show and try to tell you the ones that you should focus on and the ones that can help you win your leagues. So Dave and Jamie, first question to you. Jamie, I'll let you answer first. Do you feel like you basically go into your drafts knowing, more or less, that you're going to draft,

let's say, at least two wide receivers in this range, rounds four, five, and six? Do you think maybe at least two wide receivers you should plan on that? No. Probably one, because I'm probably taking receivers before round four. So I'm not going to probably come out of my first six rounds with five receivers.

There's a good chance that I'll take four. And so I'll probably take one maybe around four. And then I guess I'll probably come out with two of these. Okay. Dave, what do you think? Two in this range? Not only do I think I would probably come out with two of these. Okay. Dave, what do you think? Two in this range? Not only do I think I would take two in this range, there's a decent chance they'll be my top two receivers in this range.

If I go running back, running back with my first two picks, I'll probably go this. Well, it depends on where I am and what the rules are in the league. There are definitely situations where I will not take two running backs back to back. But I kind of agree with your answer. If I'm picking late in round one, I'm probably going to be more open to taking a receiver then. And if there's another good receiver that makes it to me in early round two, I'm going to take a receiver there. And in that case, I might take one receiver in rounds four or five and maybe another in round six and seven. So I kind of got to the same place Jamie did. Yeah, I'm probably going to take two receivers in this spot. But I'm also kind of throwing in round three in there. And I don't know if I necessarily should.

But that's usually the round where I'm almost always taking a wide receiver is round three. See, this is the point, though, I think for for me, is where I'll probably disagree with ADP, is that some of the receivers that are going in round four based on ADP, I'm taking in round three. Like who? Well, Pittman, for one, I saw on the list. Yep, me too. I don't know that Pittman's going to be a round four pick

at the end of the day. He's going to be part of this show for sure. And if you look at NFC ADP, he's already a round three pick. But on Fantasy Pros, he's around four pick. I'm going to get one more source of ADP here. Check Fantasy Life. Good, because you haven't confused the audience enough with your ADP sources. Thank you, Dave.

I appreciate that. You jump around from like three different places now. Well, I'm trying to give some varied ADP. The good thing about Fantasy Pros is it factors in several sites. The only problem with Fantasy Pros right now is I don't want to rely on... I mean, the good thing about Fantasy Pros is it factors in several sites. Right. Yeah, the only problem

with Fantasy Pros right now is I don't know what the date range is. So I don't know how recent it is. But Pittman could be a guy that gets in around three. I'm eliminating DJ Moore

from today's show. I don't think he's going to be around four pick. Although, I'll be honest with you, I did a Twitter poll that we'll get to in a second. And the results... Yeah, you copied mine.

Good job. Oh, I didn't see it. But he might be a round four pick. I'm going to give a quick stat of the day. Pittman on Fantasy Pros is 47th overall. Oh, my gosh. And he's the 32nd or something on NFC since June 1st. Yeah, that's probably more accurate for him.

I don't know. That's why I wanted to look up one more source. Anyway, I want to give you a stat of the day. It's kind of a weird one. Actually, I was looking at Michael Pittman. This is how it came up because I know the Colts are going to run the ball a lot. The last time a wide receiver

on a team that was bottom five in pass attempts finished top 12 in PPR was Doug Baldwin seven years ago. So we've now gone six straight seasons without a top 12 PPR wide receiver coming from a bottom five pass attempt team. Does that make sense?

Mm-hmm. However, you go at bottom six, and it changes. Because we've seen the teams that have been sixth, the sixth fewest pass attempts in the NFL have produced. A.J. Green, five years ago, he was wide receiver 10. DeAndre Hopkins, four years ago, he was wide receiver one. And two years ago, Jefferson and Thielen were both top 10 guys. So it's kind of weird. Nothing from the bottom five, but bottom six changes everything.

Top 10 total points or points per game? Total points. And there was actually one exception. Glad you brought that up. A.J. Brown, two years ago on the Titans, they had the third fewest pass attempts. He got hurt, missed some games. He was top 12 per game. I think he was seventh.

But he was something like 14th overall. But it is hard. When you're looking at these guys, because I think it's somewhat relevant, like they're obviously not being drafted in the first two rounds for a reason, or first three rounds for a reason, because there's some flaws or there's some concerns or, you know, injury risk, whatever, you know, with somebody like Godwin. Are your expectations to get a top 12 player top 12 receiver or is your expectations to get

a consistent quality producer as a starter like are you swinging for the fences more or are you taking somebody that has a little bit of a safer floor wouldn't it ideally be a receiver that you can count on to be a wide receiver too but you have the hope that they could be a wide receiver i think that's the that's that's how you would probably qualify these guys if you're putting labels on them as safe starters with the chance to be top 10, top 12. But I also think there is some validity to just taking four players in this spot depending on how you build your team.

So if you take this a little bit earlier in the job you know we take a mcafree for example you take you know somebody's got a little bit more of of you know huge variables you know and how they're going to finish are you taking somebody that has a little bit of a safer floor oh i thought you said just taking four players you said just taking floor players floor players yes and this is where i go back to this that because i don't really bring it up is because you keep saying top 10 top 12 finishes You said just taking floor players. Floor players, yes. And this is where I go back to this, that. Because the only reason I bring it up is because you keep saying top 10, top 12 finishes.

You know, if the guy's a top 15 player, you probably got a pretty good draft pick there. Well, I think a lot of these guys are very good draft picks. You know, you'll see some busts, of course, but I guess what I would say is, you know, give yourself a lot of opportunities to get one of those top five guys. You get top five players out of this.

You don't just get top 12. But you definitely want to dip into this pool and give yourself, I'd say, at least two of these wide receivers. Give yourself a chance of finding that Cooper Cup. But if you look at the names that I mentioned at the top of the show, right? The guys in the last two years that really stood out. Cooper Cupp, Mike Evans, Deontay Johnson, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Keenan Allen. A lot of them, I think Deontay Johnson, the noteworthy exception, and A.J. Brown as well, really good quarterbacks on really good offenses. And that goes back to a stat I've given out before where in the last six seasons, only 15% of the top 12 PPR wide receivers were on offenses that ranked 20th or worse.

So do you think that's something we should be focusing on here is, hey, when in doubt, let's go with the guy who's on the better offense. Yes, for sure. Well, it's tough though, because then you talk about Darnell Mooney versus Allen Robinson, right? Because you have to—do you want just the target share or do you want the better offense?

Or do you want the combination of that? I don't even know what the combination is. Pittman would be maybe the combination, but we don't know if he's going to make it into round four. You know, how do you—Jalen Waddell versus this guy, you know? It's certainly something that, you know, it's how you should be, you know, approaching it. And I think it comes down to, you know, Pittman, we don't know how great this Colts offense could be. It's, you know, probably going to be middle of the pack, I would say. The Bears are probably going to be, you know, bottom of the offensive rankings.

You know, things of the, of, of the offensive rankings, you know, things go as, as, as we expect, but Mooney is going to be a guy that may have 20 or 30 more targets than several of the players in this range. You know, this offense projects the way it looks like and what we saw from him last year. So, you know, those, those types of things obviously factor in, but it's, it's, it's obviously something you should take into account for sure. but taking it a step back, what makes an offense great?

Typically it's quarterback. You got to start there. And then what makes a wide receiver great in fantasy? I don't know. What way are you going? We're back in the 20s targets, getting a lot of opportunities, catching a lot of touchdowns too. That always helps. But if you've got a good quarterback and you're in a position where you

should get a lot of opportunities i mean it seems pretty obvious to me that those are the two qualifiers that you're going to look for from receivers in this group when you're pitting them against one another right when you when you take a look at the guys that are in this range you know you're going to see deontay johnson like, I'm looking at, and I think we should probably not necessarily go, maybe just say rounds four through six. We should use picks because for people in 10-team leagues or even larger leagues. So we're talking, what, 37 through 72? Yep.

So 37 through 72. I don't know what list you have here, but the list I'm looking at from fantasy pros, it's Deontay Johnson at 39 through Portland Sutton at 61, Gabriel Davis. Oh, this is weird, I guess. Some of these guys are in this range. No, look, I gave you the list. It does start with Deontay Johnson.

It ends with Allen Robinson. There are, if I remove DJ Moore, there are 16 wide receivers in this range, and they are Jalen Waddell, Deontay Johnson, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, DJ Moore, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown, Michael Thomas, Darnell Mooney, Amonra St. Brown, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Alan Robinson. And I gave an honorable mention to Adam Thielen and Hunter Renfro,

who are just after round six, but I think a lot of people take them in the first six rounds in a 12-team league. So that's 16 to 18 names there. If you look at fantasy pros, it's also Gabriel Davis, Elijah Moore, and I guess that might be it. I actually don't think so, Jamie. I think you might be looking at non-PPR because I'm looking at full PPR and Elijah Moore is at 78 and Gabriel Davis is at 80. Yeah, that makes me wonder if more is that high i wonder if more is that high if this is like a full off-season adp and not like since the draft or since june 1st or anything like that are you just looking at wide receiver jamie yep yeah if you go to all i think you get better adp okay yeah

so um anyway yeah it's about 18 wide receivers or so in that range. Hopefully not Elijah Moore and Gabriel Davis because hopefully you can get them a little bit later. Oh, the Davis hype is going to be way out of control. He's going to push him up into this range for sure. He's absolutely in this range. I'll put him in these notes then. All right.

We'll come back to this list in just a bit. I want to get Dave's take on Baker Mayfield as he was not on the bonus pod yesterday. If you missed that, we did a whole 20-minute bonus pod on the Carolina Panthers with Baker Mayfield now. I do want to tell you that tomorrow's episode is to be determined.

Don't know what it's going to be. Right now, it's supposed to be a... I thought it was the podcast league giveaways. Yeah. It's supposed to be a live mock draft with listeners, but we might do a mailbag instead. We might, uh,

if we don't finish this topic, we might get more into these wide receivers. So tomorrow's episode is to be determined, but you can watch every episode either live or on demand at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. The only ones you can't watch or the only ones you can't listen to are the live mock drafts that we do on Tuesday afternoons. So that's why you need to go to YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football today.

Become a subscriber. And by the way, if you are watching, please hit like on the video. We would appreciate that. And PodcastAwards.com, vote for us. Adam, if you subscribe, yes, vote for us at the Podcast Awards. If you subscribe to the YouTube videos and then you get an alert when we go live, aren't you getting the podcast in real time? Yeah.

Yeah, exactly. So you'd have an edge over everyone else, even people in your league, that listen to the same podcast. You'll get it first on YouTube. Exactly. Yep, and that could really help with the waiver wire shows, et cetera. News and notes so the panthers acquire baker mayfield for a conditional draft pick according to the athletic

the panthers envision a training camp battle between baker mayfield and sam darnold uh right exactly it's gonna be baker mayfield so i i did what round jamie i came up with this very original twitter poll what round are you drafting? Did you do the same exact thing? Yes, a few hours before you. How did I see Adams and not yours? It's weird. Bots.

I retweeted Adams. Oh, thank you. I thought it was a good... Are the results the same? Mine was about... I'm trying to look it up now, but my computer... It was mostly round three, round four, if I remember. Yeah, mine was about 33% round three, 33% round four. So, you know, I feel like for us, he's going to be easy round three.

For Heath, he's going to be round two. Dave, what about you? Where are you on DJ Moore? I'm not going to be that high on DJ Moore. He was a late round four pick for me before the trade. I moved him a full round up. He's a late round three pick for me. Baker trade. I moved him a full round up. He's a late round three pick for me. Baker's an upgrade, but Baker's track record with wide receivers isn't exactly great. The best receiver that he's ever worked with was Jarvis Landry.

They combined for 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. No receivers had more than six touchdowns. The only one to have six touchdowns is Jarvis Landry. Only two receivers have had over 1,000 yards from Baker Mayfield. It's Landry and Odell. Both of that came in 2019. And more for all the good that he's done with terrible quarterback play, still hasn't been a top 12 wide receiver on a PPR per game basis yet in his career. In fact, he's finished outside the top 24 in each of the past two years. So when I moved him up, I moved him to wide receiver 15,

and that feels a little gross to me. I feel like I'm taking him. I feel like his floor is still in that 1,100-yard range, lots of catches, 85-plus catches, and I think he can do better than four touchdowns. I think he's better than four score more. I think he can get to six. The one edge that Baker has considerably had over Sam

Darnold over the past couple of years, when you look at their stats, is touchdown rate. So Baker should be able to throw more touchdowns. That should help DJ Moore get more touchdowns. But I don't think Baker... Baker's an upgrade. I don't think he's the best upgrade we could have asked for for DJ Moore. And I also think the schedule is going to be really tough for them. They play the Saints twice, the Bucs twice. They play the AFC North. Those are tough defenses. They play Denver. They play the Rams.

They play the 49ers. That's 11 of their 17 games. DJ Moore is going to have a lot of work to do. Really, that schedule concerns me more about Baker than it does DJ Moore. So I'm drafting him at close to his floor. I think he's not a top 12 wide receiver. And when I say I'm taking him in round three, it's going to be toward the end of round three.

Good. So sixth in the PPR rankings for Heath ninth for Jamie. Sixth. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. 15th for Dave. And Jamie,

where do you have nine? Love this. Wow. Love this. I mean, one. Wow. Love this one, DJ Moore. I mean, okay. Okay. You guys are going to get them.

All right. And the Twitter audience, so my awesome Twitter poll had 1,733 votes. 6.2% would take DJ Moore in round two. 31.3% in round three. 37.6% in round four, and 24.9% in round five. So he probably should be part of this round four through six discussion,

but it's pretty obvious that he's at the top of the list. I'm going to guess his ADP is somewhere in the middle of round three. Okay, so expect him, when I ask you guys who your favorites are, it's going to be DJ Moore and some others. By the way, where are you going to rank Baker mayfield i did not get to that he's 25th for me he's lower than that for me okay and seattle plans to have geno smith and drew lock

compete for the starting job according to greg bell of the tacoma news tribune that's all frustrating for dk metcalf and ty lockett And Jameis Winston was throwing without a knee brace, which is nice to see, hopefully making progress. I don't know if that means he can play without a knee brace, but throwing without one was good to see. Okay, so. I hope it was in some fun workout video. They posted a video of him working out with Will Lutz

at the Saints facility. I hope he's not holding for a while. Doing all sorts of stuff. Right. I hope he's not working on his holding drills. So, again, these wide receivers. Oh, what happened to my trivia? I have wide receiver trivia.

I have to get the trivia for today. I'm sorry. So, these wide receivers, I'm just going to say the names one more time. Jalen Waddell, Deontay Johnson, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, Right. So these wide receivers, I'm just going to say the names one more time. Jalen Waddle, Deontay Johnson, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman, DJ Moore, probably going to be our two favorites, maybe Brandon Cooks as well. Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Brandon Cooks, Marquise Brown, Michael Thomas, Darnell Mooney, Gabriel Davis, Amandra St. Brown, Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy, Alan Robinson.

And then just after that, Adam Thielen and Hunter Renfro could definitely sneak into the top six rounds, which would be the top 72 picks. I know it's a lot of names. You don't have to remember them all. There will not be a quiz. But these are the guys we're going to be talking about. All right. Sorry, I have to look up my fun trivia questions

I think we will enjoy about the wide receivers in this range. So fun that you forgot them. I just forgot to put them in the notes. You seemingly misplaced them. Okay, which wide receiver in this range led his team in receiving while no other player on his team

reached 400 receiving yards? Is it Brandon Cooks, Michael Pittman, or Terry McLaurin? Could be all three of them. 400 yards? I'll say McLaurin. I'll say Pittman. It is Michael Pittman. Here's the big problem with this trivia is I actually don't know if it's more than one.

But I do know Michael Pittman is an answer to this. Who was to Paschal, right? Yes, Zach Paschal. Oh, and Terry McLaurin as well. JD McKissick at 397 yards. Let's see if Brandon Cooks also is there. But this is what we're talking about. I mean, the guys are just going to maybe not McLaurin anymore, but Pittman's just going to dominate targets and yards.

Nico Collins had 446 for Houston. Next trivia question that I may or may not have the correct answer to. So all three had the next best receivers under 450 yards. Yeah. Wow. Which wide receiver had the highest PFF, pro football focused, receiving grade at 12th overall. Which wide receiver in this range was basically the highest graded receiver last year?

Let's see. I'll give you some multiple choice. Was it Jalen Waddell? Which wide receiver from an arbitrary standpoint is the best? Was it Jalen Waddell, DJ Moore, or DK Metcalf? I'll say Moore. Waddle. Who cares what PFF thinks?

DK Metcalf was actually the top rated. I'm surprised. I know, me too. Tyler Lockett was right behind him. Which wide receiver has caught fewer than 10 touchdowns in his last two seasons but that represents 24 percent of his teams receiving touchdowns over those last two seasons and the answer is not dj more might be dj more as well but eliminating him well because i wasn't going to put him in these notes this is 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons no fewer than 10

touchdowns in the last two seasons and that is actually 24 of his teams 10 touchdowns over the last two seasons? No, fewer than 10 touchdowns in the last two seasons, and that is actually 24% of his team's receiving touchdowns. Pittman? No. McLaurin? I think he scored more than that. McLaurin is the answer. Pittman actually only had six out of 27 touchdowns last year. McLaurin is very similar to DJ Moore.

I think their careers have been very similar. They have had major touchdown problems, but their teams have had major touchdown problems. All right, here we go. Here's a fun one. There are two sets of teammates all being drafted in this range. That's false.

There are two sets of teammates. You got the Broncos, guys. No. This is a hell of a trivia question. Not all of them. Sorry, two of of teammates. You got the Broncos, guys. No. This is a hell of a trivia question. Not all of them. Sorry. Two of them have been drafted in this range. Two sets of teammates who ranked in the top 15

in green zone targets in 2021. What's the green zone? 10 yards in. Inside the 10. Who are they? They ranked in the top 15 in green zone targets in 2021. They are teammates now. They are teammates now.

They are teammates. And they're both in this range? Oh. So one on each team is in this range. Wait a minute. One on each team, but they're on the same team? No, one of the teammates is in the round four through six range. Waddle and Tyreek Hill?

No, but that's, I, but that's the idea. Renfro and Adams? Yes. And the other two... Marcus Brown and DeAndre Hopkins? The other two were teammates last year and this year. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin? Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Ah, yes.

All right, makes sense. Which two teammates have stats? This was terrible trivia. All right. Which two teammates have stats? This was terrible trivia. All right. Let's do the questions now. Who are your top three wide receivers in this draft range? DJ Moore,

Michael Pittman, and I'll say Cortlandson. It's Pittman, and I'll say Cortland Sutton. It's Pittman, it's Brandon Cooks, and it's DJ Moore. Oh, yeah, Brandon Cooks over Sutton. Okay, so it's the same top three for everyone. If DJ Moore, Brandon Cooks, and Michael Pittman are available when you get to round four or even late in round three, these are the guys you're taking, right?

Go get them. Well, apparently round two if you're Heath for DJ Moore. What's the order for you guys? I just gave it to you. Pitty cooks more. Pittman cooks. Oh, okay. So very different.

Okay. Who do you in this range, do you just not see yourself drafting? Deontay Johnson. St. Brown. Yeah, there could be more than one answer if you guys want to just, who do you eliminate? St. Brown would be in that list as well. Mooney.

I'm pretty sure people are going to take Mooney before I consider Mooney. I would definitely take Mooney in round five or six. Cooper I would not take at this point. Yeah. What about Jamie? Are you also not drafting Deontay Johnson in round five? No, I would gladly take Deontay Johnson.

Okay. So that Dave said Mooney and Deontay Johnson, he's not really feeling those guys. Jamie does not agree. You want to get into that a little bit? Deontay Johnson? Yeah, let's start with him. Dave, I know why you don't really love him. Not super efficient.

In your mind, won't get as much target volume this year. Right. Offense is going to change. Quarterback change. Don't see Deontay's role necessarily changing, but I do think the volume of targets goes down. Volume of targets could go down, could also stay the same.

This is a team that's probably going to be playing from behind a little bit more than they have in the past. I think we're going to see hopefully better quarterback play because Roethlisberger, while he was great in terms of manipulating things with his mind, physically he was limited. So whether the combination or one of the two out of Trubisky

or Kenny Pickett, hopefully Pickett, will help get some better quality targets for Deontay Johnson. And so entering contract situation, getting him in round four, still going to be a guy that, you know, on a team that lost two wide receivers. Hopefully we see some production from Pickens, but that remains to be seen. And so I think we'll see still quality play from him and hopefully some better plays downfield. All right, how about Darnell Mooney? Darnell Mooney had four 100-yard games last year.

Two of them were against the Lions. Two of them were against Baltimore and Minnesota, where he had 16 targets in each game. And a lot of his production came with Andy Dalton and not with Justin Fields. But hopefully we get a lot of improvement from Justin Fields this year. So, Dave, you're not really seeing yourself drafting a lot of Darnell Mooney. Jamie says round five or six is fine for Darnell Mooney.

Dave, what's the case against Mooney? Why are you not really interested, I guess, at his cost? I've got him at 60th overall. So technically I'm in that round five six range like jamie said but just put me closer to six than five uh i i the target share is great and the opportunity should be there for him he had a 54 catch rate from justin fields last year he um five end zone targets from justin fields last year his explosiveness overall last year was 72nd among wide receivers, 19.2%. Fields was second in bad throw rate at 22%. Those things have got to improve. Mooney's got to be able to make bigger

plays after the catch, and he's got to be able to connect with Justin Fields even more. I don't know if Mooney is a number one type of wide receiver. And I also don't know how field-centric this offense will be. It would make sense if they put more on Fields' plate this year and let them see what the kid can do. And I think he can definitely make plays off script and do great things both with his arm and his legs. But I'm nervous, man. That offensive line is ugly. I don't know what this offense will really be and i don't know how much all these other peripheral receivers might take away and there could be an edict that comes along with it saying don't overthrow to mooney and spread the ball

around a little bit more and get this is going to sound terrible but get byron pringle and velas jones involved and get cole comet involved and maybe run the ball a lot. I just, I think the target share, it's almost the same argument that I said for Deontay Johnson. I think the target share comes down. I think the volume comes down and both of these guys kind of left you a lot to be desired in terms of explosiveness. Case for Darnell Mooney,

Jamie, I don't see the targets coming down. I see this team struggling and playing from behind a lot. He had 140 targets last year. There were only 11 wide receivers in the NFL at 140 or more targets last year. I think he's well within that range, if not more than 140 targets.

Justin Fields throwing to Vilas Jones and Byron Pringle. Good luck for you. I'm going to target Darnell Mooney and Cole Komet as much as I possibly can. So I think we'll see a more aggressive play caller. I think we'll see a little bit more passing on early downs. I think it will definitely help Darno Mooney's situation. So this is the type of receiver that's going to dominate his team and targets.

And these are the type of guys you want on your fantasy team. So I guess the question would be Darno Mooney versus, you know, the Broncos guys. Who are you taking? Sutton, Mooney, Judy. If Judy has a strong camp, I'll take Judy over Mooney. That's exactly how it's being drafted right now. Sutton, Mooney, and Judy. Okay, let's see.

Where do you have Mooney ranked overall, Jamie? Overall? Yeah. Somewhere in the 50s. We're literally within 10 spots of each other, if not five spots of each other. But it's interesting because there are just players in fantasy where even though you have them ranked a certain way,

you probably have a different level of excitement for them. Yes, that's what it sounds like here. Yeah. Jamie sounds really excited about Mooney, and I'm less enthused for sure. If we were to draft the way we should draft, which is there's probably five or six running backs that should go in the first two rounds.

And then the rest would be wide receivers. All these guys would be pushed up. Wait, say again. If we were to draft the way that we should draft, which is prioritizing wide receivers, much more ahead of running backs. Why should we do that?

Yeah. Why? Yeah. Because the rate of success is certainly more in the favor of wide receivers. You listed how many guys that finished in the top five of their position going around four through six? No, not top five.

Top 12-ish. Top 12? Yeah. I think I said, I don't even think Mike Evans and Chris Godwins did last year because they missed time. I'm not sure. But I was just talking about kind of standouts.

It wasn't a specific top 12. We take more chances at the running back position than we do at wide receiver, correct? We draft them earlier, but I think that the reason, well, part of the reason why rounds four through six are so good is because there are so many running backs that go early and then the wide receivers.

If we drafted the way that we should, which is taking these wide receivers earlier. I don't know that I see it that way. Like, are you talking about a league where you start i'm talking about this is why zero rb was born sure because the success rate of these players are definitely higher because these are i don't know if you're necessarily targeting these players if you're going zero rb you're getting some of them but you're taking receivers even earlier zero rb is to take advantage of of the wide receivers that are safer but might not have the same type of ceiling but

they're also taking the running backs would have but they're not four or five rounds as opposed through five through seven or six six through eight right but whether you draft zero rb or not people are targeting wide receivers in this range in pretty much every single draft. Well, all right. I don't really know what just happened there. I think maybe Jamie's point would be better made if you're in a league where it's like one quarterback and six flex spots.

And you don't even have to draft a running back. And if that were the case, I think the game changes completely. It's why here RB is born. It's why zero RB has been a thing it it's because the success rate of these players is is higher yeah but and so this is not but i don't get that because hero zero rb would be taking wide receivers with each of your first two picks or like a tight end and wide receiver right i'm talking about four or six yeah if more people did it it would the reason why people like to zero rb drafters in every draft.

No, exactly. That's the point. The reason why people take running backs early is because the best running backs in football, in fantasy football, are typically the most valuable players in fantasy football. Agreed. But how many of them are there?

And there aren't that many who have a chance of doing it, so you have to take them early. That's what I'm saying. You're taking more chances. Nobody's going to change the way that they... Philosophically, no one's going to change the way that they draft if you have a way that's been successful for you. So it's a matter of tweaking the mindset of

what's the best thing to build your fantasy roster. And if you were doing it from a number standpoint, from which positions hit the most, you'd be taking wide receivers earlier, which would push these guys up. Okay, let's do more trivia. Which two teams had the lowest pass rate in the red zone last year? Percentage of passes.

Lowest pass rate in the red zone. This should be pretty easy, I think. I want to say Tennessee. No. Eagles and Colts. Eagles and Colts. Yes, you're right. I am, I know.

That's very, very easy. That's what we should have thought. Who are you nervous about missing out on in this range? I don't know if I've got an answer for that. I have an answer for that. I have an answer. I guess I mean it more like, for me, I'm kind of low on Mike Williams,

and it's sort of tearing me apart. I don't think I want to be low on Mike Williams anymore. I'm very nervous about missing out on him. Probably need to be higher on Mike Williams. You would not take Mike Williams in the first six rounds? Oh, no, no, I would. He's toward the front of this group, or maybe in the middle. You're comfortable drafting him where?

I think actually where he's going, 54th. I think round five. I don't think I'm taking him in round four. Round five, I'm good with Mike Williams, but I don't think I've drafted Mike Williams in any draft, and I might need to change that. I might need to seek him out a little bit more because I am nervous about this is the guy. I mean, this is the great offense

and led the team in receiving last year. And he's in year five. What did I say last year? Yesterday, Dave, most of the guys who pop in this range are year three, four, five. So I got to be a little higher on Mike Williams. I feel like I'm missing out on him too often in mock drafts maybe that's a better question are you guys regretting any misses in mock drafts

lately well not because you take him two rounds earlier okay um i don't think there's anybody feel like i'm missing because there's this it's such a bountiful group. I feel the same way. The receivers, I'm just looking at them now. My top 30 receivers, the only ones that I think I might regret missing out on are very much toward the top. It's Jefferson, it's Chase, it's Diggs, it's Mike Evans. Okay. Literally not one receiver from this group is one that I'm like, I've got to have him.

I'm scared about what I'm going to miss out on. I don't really feel that way about Jalen Waddell, which is why I never seem to draft him. I never feel like if I don't take Jalen Waddell, oh man, what a huge mistake I might be making. Obviously, I could be easily wrong. I doubt I felt that way about Cooper Cup last year. I was on Robert Woods.

But it's hard for me with Tyreek Hill there with probably a team that's going to want to run the ball a lot if they can. It's hard for me to see Jalen Waddell having a type of season where I am losing because I don't have enough of Jalen Waddell. You know what I mean? It's hard to envision

140 targets again. It's hard to envision 100 catches again. It's hard to envision a hundred catches again. And I'm with you. He's not somebody that I, I tend to target in this range. I would take him closer to around six than I would around four. And his ADP, at least as a couple of weeks ago was the 13th receiver off the board.

That's crazy. Can I lay a question on you guys about this dolphins team? How effective do you think they'll be running the football? Not asking for names of running, but just how effective do you think they'll be running the football? Not asking for names of running, but just how effective do you think they will be running the ball this year? Fairly effective. Average. I think they will be average at best running the football this year. And I think a great alternate to running the football is short passes. And they succeeded very well with Waddle last year

doing that and they can build off of that with waddle and they can get some short passes to edmunds and to tyreek hill other players too but i bet this ends up becoming one of the past heavier teams in the league i bet they don't do a good job running the football i mean that would be a break from daniel kyle shanahan's offenses it would be a break from Kyle Shanahan's offenses. It would be. I agree. But I just think that they're set up to have, maybe in McDaniel's mind, it's plan A is to run the ball and to succeed with the wide zone. And if it just doesn't work out, plan B is still pretty good.

It's lean on Tua to just make a bunch of short throws and use that as a substitution for the run game. It certainly can. That model would be one of those pieces. short throws and use that as a substitution for the run game. It certainly can't. A lot of pieces could do that. Waddle would be one of those pieces. So I can't, I can't rule out 140 targets again. I think it's unlikely,

but I think it's, I think it's close to the ceiling. I'd be shocked. I mean, everything he did last year was with such crap around him. And now you have one of the best receivers of football with him. I'd be surprised if he's over 120. Jalen Waddle had six games last season with 70 or more receiving yards,

and Devontae Parker played in only two of them. So he actually, if you look at just his numbers when he and Parker were both playing, both healthy, Waddell was better. More targets, better at everything, except I think touchdowns. No, even touchdowns. But his best games did come without Devontae Parker. Waddle, I think, seems like a great fit for this offense

because he can do so much after the catch. Yeah, he's going to be good. There's just one thing I don't like about Waddle, and it's Tyreek Hill. That's a big thing. It's a huge thing. And any rookie wide receiver who gets 1,000 yards is basically a

guarantee to be a good player a really good player and have a great career but it's rare to see them at it's rare to see that player have to deal with an addition like tyreek hill it's just hard to find examples like this and when i did find a rare example like that it wasn't good for that year two receiver um so uh yeah that's kind of an interesting question though i guess uh is is like when you when you are deciding between terry mclaurin and dk metcalf and michael pitman well pitman i know you guys like and deontay johnson is it jimmy you asked it earlier are you just looking for floor i think for me it's i'm i'm looking, I don't feel like I'm missing out on a league winner here. So I guess I'm looking for league winning potential. And I wonder if you guys feel the same way.

Well, I mean, the guys I think that we're looking at here have varying degrees of that. Like Williams is a league winner. Mike Williams is a league winner. If he can put together a consistent season after the way he started last year with the quarterback, he plays with Cortland Sutton could be a league winner. If he builds off what he did in his second season with better quarterback play in this offense. Now in Denver is.

I don't know. Jalen Waddle going to be a league winner with Tyreek Hill. There doesn't feel like it. Unless Tyreek regresses or gets hurt. I don't think like, but I go back to Deontay Johnson. I don't think Deontay Johnson's a league winner in this scenario. I think he's more of a foreplay in this scenario.

I think Darnell Mooney is more of a foreplay in this scenario. You know, two guys that I like, but I don't think like given their circumstances, they're going to be league winning type of guys. But I think their floors are pretty safe based on the targets that they should continue to get based on what they showed us in the past and what these systems have shown us.

And so those are the type of players I think you're differing here just in terms of how they can go. How about McLaurin and Metcalf? What kind of players do you see them as? Are they floor players? Are they league-winning types of players, McLaurin and Metcalf? They've got lower floors

because of the situations that they're in and the opportunities that they'll have. They should be the top target getters for their respective teams. There's questions about their quarterbacks. It's much worse for Metcalf than it is for McLaurin, but there's a reasonable chance both of them end up with 70, 1,005. And I think that's got to be what you keep in mind, especially when you think about, well, what's the ceiling?

What are the chances that these guys can be top 12 wide receivers? How can they get to 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns? Well, it's hard to do in Seattle with a bad quarterback and a coach who wants to run the football all the time, and it's going to be hard to do in Washington with a quarterback that's never had a receiver do well and a receiver who's never been top 10 in points per game so it's it those guys are not just i don't think we can even call them safe they're they're just guys that have a very wide range of

outcomes and you should draft them accordingly for whatever reason i feel safer with mclaurin as a low-end number two receiver than i do d, but they're really in the same type of tier. I'll go the other way with McLaurin. I think McLaurin could be a league winner. I do think that Carson Wentz will bring out hopefully the best of McLaurin. And what we saw last year was, you know, I think McLaurin's a better talent than Michael Pittman.

If McLaurin's getting 129 targets, 140 targets, I think it's within range, he could have finally that big breakthrough season. I don't know if it'll happen. I agree with what Dave said. You know, there's a lot of variables here. You know, Dotson, how much better will he be as the running mate? Will they run the ball to the same level, you know,

with the worst offensive line? How much will, you know, McKissick, Logan Thomas, you know, the auxiliary parts there of this offense, Curtis Samuel as well, how much will that take away from it? But I do think that Carson Wentz can be at times a good downfield thrower, and I think that will help in the quarantine game. I think going from Taylor Heineke to Carson Wentz is sort of similar to going to Baker Mayfield from anyone that quarterbacked the Panthers last year because one thing that Wentz does very well

is throws a lot of touchdowns. It's pretty solid. 4.7 career touchdown rate. And that's what Mayfield's been a lot better at than the Panthers guys. Like, Heineke and Wentz's stats, I think, were very similar last year. They were, right. But the touchdowns.

Wentz took more chances. I think Wentz has the stronger arm. That could lead to, obviously, a better touchdown rate. Yeah. Okay. But Baker was considerably better than Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker. Yeah. I just meant from a touchdown perspective.

McLaurin is definitely a confusing one because he really just did not have a very good year last year. He had four 100-yard games, and in every other game, he didn't even score 14 PPR fantasy points. It was just weird. A lot of really bad games, very frustrating, and just a down year for him, but he was much, much better than that in his first and second seasons.

All right, we need to take a break. When we come back, we will talk about some more players here. We have not... You know what? I want to ask you about Michael Pittman and Brandon Cooks. And obviously, I know you like them the best, but do they have league-winning upside,

or are they more just very safe players? I'm going to ask you that when we come back on Fantasy Football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum.

That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. We're back talking about rounds four through six, and the players that Dave and Jamie said they liked the best were, in some order, DJ Moore, Michael Pittman, and Brandon Cooks. So it would not be uncommon to see Moore and Pittman get into round three. I don't think you're going to see Brandon Cooks there. We love him, but I don't think the industry, I don't think

the drafters are going there with Brandon Cooks just yet. And with Pittman and Cooks, same question I asked about Metcalf and McLaurin. What kind of players do you see? Do you see league-winning potential here? Because I do wonder if they're going to start getting overdrafted. These guys are not... Well, you know what?

I'll just let you guys take it. Could they get overdrafted if they get it around three with Pittman and Cooks? Do you see league-winning potential or just very high floor plays here? I see high floor plays. Pittman's got potential. He could finish as a top-12 receiver.

I like the move to Matt Ryan. I think he's going to be better for Pittman than Wentz was. Just more accurate quarterback, and specifically for Ryan, he throws best when he's got clean pockets. He's going to get a lot of those in Indianapolis. Worried about volume for him, but I still think that Pittman's in a situation. You mentioned that he was the leader in receiving yards and everything else in Indianapolis last year without anybody else having even 400 receiving yards. I think that's going to play

out again this year. As much as I love Alec Pearson, Paris Campbell, I can't help but think that Pittman's going to hog targets quite a bit from Matt Ryan. I'm a little worried about the touchdowns from him because we know that Matt Ryan does ignore receivers who draw double coverage in the red zone. But I think Pittman falls into huge volume and has a chance to be top 12.

Okay. He is a terrific route runner. I was watching a lot of michael pitman this morning thought it looks like a good route runner let me see if i'm on to something and he was rated by pff for what it's worth as the 17th best 16th best route running wide receiver in football and if you look at that was year two yeah you look at the top 15 it's just a bunch of superstars basically uh and he you know contested you can get contested catches as a big guy just not explosive but if i had a comp for him it'd be mike evans you feel that sure yes i think that's what we were talking about with him when he came out of usc i think the thing

that you know helps him uh is that his competition is a very injury prone paris campbell and a rookie and alex pierce and while those guys are oozing with upside, there's obvious downside with them as well. The tight end is being replaced. Even though it's a new quarterback, they have to figure out Molly Cox and Jelani Woods and how that's all going to work together and see what happens there. But Frank Reich did say, as much as we love Jonathan Taylor and we should,

that they got a little too run-centric for him last year. And so will they be more aggressive with a more trusted passer in Matt Ryan? And so 129 targets could lead to 140-plus, and then we could see Michael Pittman challenging for 100 catches. And so while the touchdowns may escape him, I don't know if he gets more than eight, hopefully gets to the range he'd scored six last year but if he's getting in the in the neighborhood of 100 catches you gotta like that so he does have league winning potential cooks the thing about him as we've seen you know he's the best thing about brandon cooks has been the

value of brandon cooks and so uh to your point adam if his adp and just the draft capital doesn't get out of control you're gonna love brandon cooks you know we overvalue brandon cooks you know understandably so or maybe we value him correct yeah right i don't i wouldn't say we overvalue him we value him higher than i mean you know when you start when you start to see him going around three and some industry drafts you know then we're overvaluing i think okay that was my question he should should cooks be around three pick I don't think so but uh again it's a matter of you know how how aggressive do you want to be in making sure he's on your team and how much better is he going to be than he was last year is he going to be better

than 90 catches I would probably say no I think that's a good ceiling for him uh should he be better than just over a thousand yards probably so you know 90 catches should usually lead to you know more more production and then how many touchdowns will he score on this team? And the thing about DJ Moore in particular, Michael Pittman in particular, you know, if you want to start to just, you know, go through the list, those two are probably gonna be on bad teams. And that's something that you have to say, okay, where the targets and the production come from. It probably comes from these two guys, which is why you like them. But again, you know, we started talking about good quarterbacks versus bad quarterbacks and good opportunities,

good situations. You know, we can say Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield's an upgrade over Sam Darnold, that Davis Mills showed some things last year. There's still flaws for them and their teams. And so the production may be a little bit concerning as well. In the last four games for Houston, where Davis Mills and Brandon Cooks played together, there was a game Cooks missed. It was against the Chargers. Texans put up 29, 41 points in that game,

for whatever it's worth. 36 targets. That was one of the weirdest games of the year. Wasn't it? Yeah. Texans played in a lot of weird ones last year. Four games where they played together at the end of the year. 36 targets.

That's nine per game. 25 catches. 295 yards three touchdowns extrapolate that bad boy over 17 weeks and it's 106 catches 1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns we expect and one of those games was speaking of weird texans games week 18 where danny amandola um had basically a swan song it had two touchdowns and was basically the focal point of the offense in his last game so I think there's plenty of room for Cooks to move up I thought what you were going to say Jamie is that what we know about Brandon Cooks is that he's been so inconsistent over the course of his career where one week he's 18 PPR points the next week he's five the next week he's nine the next week he's 18 PPR points. The next week he's five. The next week he's nine.

The next week he's 23. After that, he's 10. And he's just up and down. It's a roller coaster. Yeah, but there's a lot of receivers that are like that now. Yeah, I don't worry about that with Brandon Cooks. I just worry about if he gets to this point where he's being drafted in round three.

The allure of Brandon Cooks has always been you're getting such tremendous value for a player that's going to Right, right, right. Are we drafting him too close to his ceiling? Yeah, that's a worry. Well, right now he's going 58th. That's amazing. He's wide receiver 22 in Fantasy Pros. And even in NFC, I believe, he's

going after Gabriel Davis. He's 55th overall. So, did not get to talk about everybody. No. It feels like there are so many incomplete receivers. Yeah, so how do we feel about... A lot of guys that are more like McLaurin and Metcalf

than there are guys that are like, you know, CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen. Yeah, but you know why? It's because of the quarterback play, right? So, it's... Is it? I think so. Look, you'd feel much better about McLaurin and Metcalf

if they had good quarterback play. Sure. But they're just such a wild card. So then you look at guys like... Other players we haven't mentioned. Some of them. Marquise Brown, Michael Thomas, Gabriel Davis. I know you guys are not drafting Amon or St. Brown in the

first six rounds. The two Broncos guys, Alan Robinson, Adam Thielen, Hunter Renfro. I don't think you're drafting Hunter Renfro in the first six rounds. But again, Marquise Brown, Michael Thomas, Gabriel Davis, Sutton, Judy, Alan Robinson, Adam Thielen. Who stands out in that group? Robinson is my next favorite by far. You look at the production of what Woods and Beckham did combine last year as a number two receiver. Even if they sign Odell Beckham, he's not going to be ready until the end of the year.

So you're going to get great production out of hopefully a rejuvenated Allen Robinson with the best quarterback he's ever played in, best system he's ever played in. And so this is just an unbelievable spot for him. He's somebody that I would consider taking at the end of the third round as well. Alan Robinson, that is spicy hot. And this guy's going at the end of the sixth round.

Yep. Yep. I agree with Jamie on this one too. Robinson's been my favorite for a while. I did the research, the next best receiver in LA last year, had 127 targets over the course of the season whether it was Woods and this is on a game-to-game basis it's either Woods or Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson it wasn't Cooper Cup and that's kind of the role that he's going to get is that solid number two guy he's impressed them during OTAs there's been a ton of great reports about Robinson there he's not an elusive receiver I don't think he really has been,

but he's going to draw consistent. They're either going to see a ton of zone coverage from week to week, or it's going to be a safety over cup said not Robinson's head and Stafford should have no problem going his way. I think 10 touchdowns is possible for Alan Robinson with the amount of scoring that the Rams do and the way that teams are going to start to play them in the red zone. I'm Speaking of trying to double cover somebody and because I'm not sure how that run game is going to end up being. So I like Allen Robinson too. I think

he's got some huge upside, but Marquise Brown's my favorite from the group that you mentioned, because I think he can get you off to a hot start as the number one receiver in Arizona, already ahead of the curve, according to Cliff Kingsbury, in terms of learning the offense. He's been with Kyler Murray before. They played together in college. They work out together during the offseason. They're BFFs. And I think that there's a chance that even when DeAndre Hopkins comes back,

Marquise Brown continues to see in the neighborhood of – I use the number seven targets per game. That's what Christian Kirk averaged without DeAndre Hopkins last year. I think he can still get there. And he's had seven or more targets. And I think the number is 29 of 43 career games, something close to that. So more than half of his games in his career, Brown's been used to seeing a lot of targets. They haven't necessarily been accurate targets because it's Baltimore. And this is an Arizona offense that'll throw more than Baltimore's will. So I think there's 10 touchdown upside for Marquise Brown.

I think there's huge potential for him, and I like him in this exact same range as other guys who I'm taking in late round three, early round four. If you just look at the games that Kyler Murray has played in the last two seasons that he hasn't left with an injury, he's been on a 17-game pace of 4,402 passing yards and 4,598 passing yards. That's really good for a guy who's so mobile.

You have the touchdown pace, passing touchdown pace. Well, let's see. His touchdowns, I don't know if I have the paces, but he's thrown 70 touchdowns in 46 games over the last three seasons. Okay. And 26 touchdowns in 46 games over the last three seasons okay and 26 touchdowns in 16 games in 2020 24 touchdowns in 14 games in 2021 and there are some injury considerations so i would say 26 27 touchdowns and 45 a little bit of a hiccup that might be a hiccup with the thing the thing with brown is it's just a matter of what happens when hopkins comes back

if hopkins is anything close to what he has been it's going to be either just a consistent red zone threat which is what we saw last year scoring touchdowns or if he's back to being you know close to the alpha receiver he was two years ago then marquis brown's probably in trouble and so you know with zachary's there and he was very successful for them last season with whatever they do with james connor out of backfield or whatever else they use in tandem with him. Kingsbury has talked a lot about Rondell Moore. It's going to be really interesting to see how this all works together and then whatever they still have of the corpse of A.J. Green.

So it's a lot of mouths to feed in this offense once we get to Week 7. And so can Marquise Brown continue to do that? I agree, get you off the hot start. It's just a matter of what happens when Hopkins is back on the field and being that guy for Kyler Murray. If I'm going to take a shot at a 29-year-old wide receiver, which is getting up there in age,

why am I going to take a shot on Allen Robinson over Michael Thomas? Health? Better offense? Two very good factors. Health, for sure. Definitely a better offense, but a much better opportunity. And how about this?

When Michael Thomas was dominating, he was doing it as the guy in that New Orleans passing game with Drew Brees as his quarterback. He was doing it as the guy with Taysom Hill, and he was doing it as the guy with Teddy Bridgewater as well. Who are the next best receivers in those offenses?

Alvin Kamara. Okay. Who's still there, but in those offenses? Alvin Kamara. Okay. Who's still there, but now there's also Chris Olave and there's still Jarvis Landry. And Jameis is a step down from Breeze. I don't think Jameis is a step down from Bridgewater or Hill.

He's better than those guys. But I don't know if he's going to command the same type of target share. And I don't know that the videos of him running routes and all that, it's encouraging. I don't know what he's going to routes and all that. It's encouraging. I don't know what he's going to be when he comes back

in terms of his athleticism and his agility. Would you rather have Gabriel Davis or a Broncos wide receiver? Sutton, Davis, Judy right now. Sutton, Davis, Judy for me as well. I think the thing with Michael Thomas that you're hoping for is that

he just continues to get pushed down. Michael Thomas? Yeah. So, I don't mind taking him. I'm just not taking him in round five. How surprised would you be

if a Broncos wide receiver finished in the top 12? I wouldn't be surprised if two did. I'd be surprised if two did. I mean, Russell did that once upon a time in a less pass-volume offense. I think he'll have more opportunity to throw this year. And so the hiccup for one of these two guys is Tim Patrick.

And so, you know, if Patrick is as good as he's been, it will cap the ceiling for probably both of them, but certainly one of them. But I think this is, is you know in terms of talent on par I think Sutton and Judy as talents are comparable to what Metcalf and Lockett are as players and you know we'll find out you know we'll

see just how good Russell Wilson makes them you know pedigree certainly speaks to them being better than DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett so you know we'll find out if they can you know live up to it alright that's it for today's show certainly speak to them being better than DK Macavity locket. So, you know, we'll find out if they can, you know, live up to it. All right. And that's it for today's show. Glad we,

glad we tackled that. We didn't talk about Adam Thielen though. I know Dave likes Adam Thielen. I do. I still think the touchdowns are going to be there for him. They've been there ever since Kirk cousins has been the quarterback there. Something like anywhere from 29% to 40% target share in the red zone from Kirk cousins. And I know that everybody's like,

Oh, there's going to be touchdown regression. The day there will be touchdown regression for Adam Thielen will be the day that Adam Thielen isn't on the field. So that's the regression. That's the problem. It is a problem. And that's why you're getting him at a pretty decent value.

He's a great value pick. Yeah. He's a great number three receiver. He's not a top 24 guy. Can he stay healthy? And, you know, you mentioned 29-year-old receivers. He's in his, what, early 30s now? I think he's 32.

And he's battled injuries each of the last two seasons. And they love K.J. Osborne. They are very excited about what his opportunity will be. Irv Smith is an upgrade over Tyler Conklin. So, you know, touchdowns can go other directions at this point. And, obviously, we're expecting Justin Jefferson to have the Cooper Cup treatment with the coach coming from the Rams. And if that's the case, good God, Justin Jefferson can be an absolute monster,

which would probably impact Thielen. So I think he's appropriately priced. That whole thing, I'm sorry. We've said it so many times that I do not understand it at all. I don't think it's going to happen. But, I mean, Jefferson obviously is a monster by himself right now. Yeah, Jefferson, he doesn't need this supposed Cooper Cup treatment, but that only existed for one year with the Rams.

And we give Sean McVay credit for basically everything that happens on that offense. Now we've got a coordinator becoming a coach of a new team, and we're trying to put let cup and jefferson in the cup role and i don't know they've never been a team that's that's featured a wide receiver like that so it's not even a consideration well i mean to be fair when you have mike zimmer as the coach they haven't allowed them no the rams have never been a team that's featured like that until last you know maybe they they figured out the formula and obviously obviously worked. He just was so much better than everyone.

Maybe Jefferson is that much better than everyone. It took Matthew Stafford going there to make that happen and there was a change. There's a change now in Minnesota with the coach. I don't know if we're going to see Justin Jefferson what a cup have, 180 targets? Roughly, yeah. I would be surprised if Jefferson's under 150.

Oh man, I love i just i i don't i don't know this whole like he's going to be cooper cup thing no he's not going to be cooper cup i mean it's obviously romanticizing the situation but i think when you just look at what the upside could be for him versus the downside for the other guys there as we've noted noted, when we're talking about Alan Robinson, you could still be really good in this. If it's a similar system, which we expect it to be, the second guy could still be really good. Robert Woods and Odell Beckham are still really good.

Dillon could still be really good. And if Dillon's not there, Osborne could be really good. I don't think they were good. You know, I mean, we say that a lot about Beckham. He really wasn't. He caught touchdowns.

And that's, I think, what you're banking on for Alan Robinson. But what were his yards per game with the Rams? I don't even know if he averaged 50 yards per game. No, but in terms of what their fantasy production was.

It wasn't that... I don't know. I mean, in... Let's see. He played eight games with the Rams. He averaged 38 yards per game. But he caught five touchdowns.

So I've just got to say it. Odell Beckham was not good in the regular season with the Rams. He was a little bit better maybe in the playoffs. I think he had his first 100-yard game in a million years in the playoffs. But Odell Beckham was touchdown dependent, and I think that's what Allen Robinson might be. And Matthew Stafford threw a ton of touchdowns last year,

and if that comes down, then I think Robinson might be a really frustrating player. I think you might only get touchdowns last year, and if that comes down, then I think Robinson might be a really frustrating player. I think you might only get touchdowns from him because he does not make plays after the catch. He's never been that kind of guy, really. Maybe when he was in his second year and he had the 1,400 yards, but this guy is a possession receiver who's been a heavily targeted guy, and if he's not that, and he's not going to be heavily targeted,

if he's not that, he's going to have to score touchdowns. I think he's got the best chance in this group to be heavily targeted, if he's not that, he's going to have to score touchdowns. I'm sorry. That's why I think he's got the best chance in this group to score touchdowns, probably. But if he doesn't score them, he's going to be a bust, I think, Allen Robinson. Unless he's schemed the way that Cooper Cup was schemed, where you don't see it when you're watching it on

TV, but Cup figures out a way to get open. And when he catches the ball, there's no one within three yards of him. Andinson could do the exact same thing and it's also you're savvy of a route runner that he could get open like that and the scheme works to get receivers that open and the quarterback i mean it's not just you know it's part of the scheme look at the guys that robinson's played with oh yeah such a significant upgrade. Huge. Okay. Let me just give this last stat on Adam Thielen.

So he has played 33 games in his last three seasons in which he's played his normal snap share. He's actually left a lot of games early, and it's hurt Adam Thielen's per-game stats. In those 33 games, Thielen has fewer than 60 yards in 19 of them, and his 17-game pace in those 33 games, Thielen has fewer than 60 yards in 19 of them. And his 17-game pace in those 33 games is 1,018 yards. It's really not good. So it is about to touch down.

What's the touchdown pace? 18, probably. High. I'm going to guess it's at least 15. He had 14 touchdowns in 15 games in 2020, which was a mostly healthy season. Didn't leave any games early with an injury. I think he missed one game with

COVID. I probably have feeling too high. He's going to be one of my favorite number three receivers. He's the last guy drafted in this range. He's into round seven. Right, but I've got to bring him over to St. Brown for example. Yeah, sure. And. Right, but I've got to bring him over to St. Brown, for example.

Yeah, sure. Yeah. And for now, I'm taking him over Judy. I don't know if it's going to stay that way. But for now, that's where I've got him. This has been a long show, but I do wonder if round seven is just the dramatic drop at wide receiver.

You do have Hopkins. I don't know. You got Elijah Moore, Devontae Smith. No, Juju Smith-Schuster's in there. Never mind. Never mind. All right, more on that on another show. Are those the receivers we should be waiting for then?

I'm just trying to give you podcast content. I'm not saying that that's what I should do. All right, good stuff. I like it. All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow. I'll tell you the one thought that I had in my head throughout the entire show was the more that we go through these names

and realize their upsides and downsides, the more I like waiting for Alan Lazard. Hey, there you go. That's another one you get after that. Those are two guys that are going to get pushed up. Not those two. Lazard and Russell Gates are going to be two receivers that get pushed up dramatically

given their circumstances and once people start to actually do their draft. All right, guys. Thank you very much for the long show. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.