Fantasy Football Today - League Winning WRs in Rounds 4-6! (07/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Calvin Ridley in 2020, Cooper Kupp in 2021, Jaylen Waddle in 2022, all of these guys were drafted in Rounds 4-6 of a 12-team league. You can find league winners here, so let's take you through this year's list of WRs and see who we prefer. First, 2022 was actually a down season for WRs in this range, so will 2023 be more of the same or do we expect a rebound (1:25)? ... News and notes (6:24) and then the Draftometer (9:30) for every WR in this range! We disagree on Drake London, DeAndre Hopkins and a few others. Then the guys discuss their draft strategies in Rounds 4-6 (19:15), the WRs they like best here and the WRs with the best values (27:15) ... Which Rounds 4-6 WRs are we avoiding (34:35)? How do we feel about Brandon Aiyuk and Mike Williams (39:15)? Why are we buying the Jerry Jeudy breakout (47:30)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can? It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, we are in rounds four through six. Use your imagination. Pretend you're drafting right now, and the wide receivers left on the board, they're pretty good.

There's a couple of Seahawks wide receivers there. There is Keenan Allen available in rounds four through six. Maybe DeAndre Hopkins will be there in some leagues. Amari Cooper. Some good players. And usually we get a few studs in this range. But last year, we did not. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today.

It's Adam, Chris, and Jamie here on a Tuesday morning. And we're talking about a wide receiver range that, like, you know, I just loved this range going into last year. I was saying you should definitely take probably at least two wide receivers in this range. This is where you get your Cooper Cups and your Stefan Diggs, etc. Didn't work out. Only one top 12 wide receiver was drafted in rounds four through six last year, and that was Jalen Waddell. Good morning, Chris. Welcome back. What do you think in rounds four through six last year and that was Jalen Waddle uh good morning Chris welcome back what do you think about rounds four through six at wide receiver this year I don't love rounds four through six this year it kind of feels a little bit like it might be a wide receiver dead zone I know that's a controversial topic within the fantasy sports community, but this feels a little bit like the odd

sock drawer of the wide receiver position where it's like a few guys we're not sure about, a few guys who we think could take a next step but haven't done it yet. It all adds up to a group that I just don't feel super confident in. How often do you lose a sock in the wash?

Um, I don't do like we have in unit laundry now. We've we've moved on up. But before when I had to take it to a different building, lost socks all the time. It was it was a source of great stress and consternation in my family. Yeah, I don't get it. I mean, really, it's it's a great mystery. Jamie, your thoughts on I think Chris is, you know, it's a pretty interesting take, not really loving around

four through six wide receivers. So let me just give you some of the names and you could use different ADP. Right now I'm using NFC average draft position since June 15th. That's 95 drafts. And we're looking at Keenan Allen. And by the way, I have to read 16 names here before my time expires on the mock draft we're doing. I have 35 looking at Keenan Allen. And by the way, I have to read 16 names here before my time expires on the mock draft we're doing. I have 35 seconds.

Keenan Allen. It's okay. Amari Cooper, Jerry Judy, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, Hopkins, DJ Moore, McLaurin, Christian Watson, Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Deontay Johnson,

Brandon Ayuk, and Tyler Lockett. And now I get to make my pick. Jamie, what do you think about rounds four through six wide receivers? I think what we're seeing is, and Chris sort of alluded to this, you know, a little bit with, you know, what could be a dead zone for wide receivers is a lot of the top tier guys. And by top tier guys, I mean, you know, 15, 16, maybe 18 receivers are

going in the first three rounds. And a big part of that is because that's the way the shift in drafting has gone, that we've gone away from running backs and we're going more toward the wide receivers. There are still very good guys in this group, you know, that have a ton of potential, you know, Keenan Allen is still going to be very good in PPR if he stays healthy. Amari Cooper, I think is still solid. Jerry Judy could be a breakout receiver. Calvin Ridley, if he's back, could be, you know, a monster. And then, you know, a couple of young guys and Drake London and Christian Watson, you know, those, those are my favorite of the group. But you're starting to see, this is where the fall off becomes. And this is why there's a little bit of a concern, you know, because these guys may not be

the same caliber of wide receivers that you're drafting, but they have question marks. And so that's the thing there's, there's so that's the thing. There's upside. There's certainly top 10 potential for a lot of these guys, but there's also a lot of downside for this group as well. Well, here's the problem. I don't want to draft a tight end in rounds four through six, ideally, maybe round six. Quarterback would certainly be in the discussion here.

Are we saying that we like the running backs in this range then? Brees Hall, Travis Etienne, Jameer Gibbs, so far so good. Ken Walker, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, J.K. Dobbins, Alexander Madison, Cam Akers. Again, it's the shift It's the shift in running backs getting pushed down And wide receivers getting pushed up And so when you're playing in three receiver leagues

Or two flex leagues Where you're heavy on wide receiver You're going to have to maybe stretch Who you feel you have to take If you think you have to get three receivers early And that's kind of the problem here If you don't want to take a quarterback You don't want to take a tight end,

or you feel concerned about those running backs, you're going to take one of these guys. And there are more guys, in my opinion, of the receivers you listed with flaws than there are with upside. Interesting. All right. We'll get back to this discussion in a little bit.

We'll talk about our favorite guys to target in this range. Who's going to win you a league, though? That's what we're looking for. We're looking for that league winner. Do we have it? Hopefully we have one or two of them. We are adding a new podcast feed to the Fantasy Football Today family. Starting next Tuesday, you'll be able to hear the FFT Dynasty show in its own feed. And look at that logo if you're watching on YouTube.

YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Super fun throwback FFT Dynasty. It's very 80s, yeah. Yes, yes, I love it. So it's a new feed. So actually, they just recorded an episode, that mock draft I referenced. We did it for the Dynasty show.

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Heath Cummings. No changes if you're an avid viewer of the show on YouTube. Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. Check it out wherever you listen to podcasts. Let's do some news and notes here. Colts owner Jim Ursae said it's going to be tough for Anthony Richardson, but he has to play to get

better. There'll be a learning curve, basically, is what he was saying. He also said head coach Shane Steichen will make the call on when he decides to play Richardson, and that Gardner Minshew can go in and be better in week one. But, Jamie, hearing Jim Irsay yesterday or seeing the quotes, your guess on when Richardson becomes the starter and how many games do you think he'll play? And obviously we're not soothsayers here, so it could be way off, but just what do you think about Richardson?

I think he will start week one and I think he will play 17 games if he's healthy. I can't imagine that if he's starting, they're going to take him out unless, you know, there's, there's some injury, you know, and there's concern about the long-term health. Like we saw with Justin Fields last year, when the shoulder started to become a problem. There was some conversation about him sitting. And so I think as long as he's fine, he's going to play every game this season because they need to see what they have.

I think he's done enough from what I've seen and from what I've read that he's not that far behind. So I'm sure there wants to be a little bit of a motivating factor, like you have to go in and earn the job. And Gardner Minch is certainly a capable starter to get the bridge until maybe Richardson is ready if they go that route. But I'm approaching it fantasy-wise like he is starting every game, and I'm going to draft accordingly with a backup

just because we know he's got some potential pitfalls. But I think there's immense potential for him to be a fantasy star in his rookie campaign. Same question to you, Chris. How many games does he start, and when does he start? Anthony Richardson. I think the likeliest is what Jamie said. He starts week one and then starts 17 games.

The schedule's actually pretty soft, especially early on. They open with the Jaguars, but then they have the Texans. Ravens are tough, but then the Rams, Titans, Jaguars again, Browns, Saints, Panthers and Patriots before their bye week. And so, like, looking at that schedule, I mean, the Jaguars are the only team. Jaguars and Ravens are the only two teams that I think are clearly in a different class than the Colts. So, you know, I do think if Anthony Richardson starts, he could get off to a 500 start and there won't be a ton of pressure to bench him.

So I think the likeliest outcome is he plays week one and plays the whole season. If not, then it's probably like week five is the likeliest time he starts. All right, Jim Irsay also said that Jonathan Taylor's ankle is healed up, so we hope to see Taylor out there to start training camp. Darnell Mooney said he'll be ready for training camp. He had a season-ending ankle injury.

He had, in his first three games, Darnell Mooney had 11 targets and 27 yards. In his next eight games, he did pretty well. He was on pace for 76 catches, 990 yards, four touchdowns on 106 targets over 17 games. So he was solid. Obviously, we're not too hopeful for him

because of the DJ Moore addition, but he did not have a bad year after those first three games. Okay, let's get into wide receivers in rounds four through six. This is, again, NFC, which is kind of high-stakes leagues. Their ADP since June 15th, that is 95 drafts. And here are, once again, the wide receivers that are going in rounds four through six. That would be beginning with pick 37. Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Jerry Judy, Calvin Ridley, Drake London, DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Deontay Johnson, and Brandon Ayuk. And, of course, the overlooked guy every year, Tyler Lockett.

So, okay, first thing I want to do is a little exercise here. I'm going to go name by name, and I want you to tell me where you are on a 0 through 10 on the draft-o-meter, how interested you are in drafting them, and not necessarily at their ADP, because there's a big difference between Keenan Allen at the beginning of the fourth round

and Tyler Lockett at the beginning of the sixth round. But if we just assume they were all interchangeable, how much do you want these guys on your team, basically? The draft -o-meter, 0-10, Keenan Allen, Jamie, then Chris. Go for each one. 10.

Yeah, 9. I think that offense is going to play really, really fast, and there's going to be a ton of volume, which is very good for Keenan Allen. Amari Cooper. Ten. Five. Ooh.

Go ahead, discuss why only a five. I'm not sure about Deshaun Watson. I think there's bounce-back potential for sure, but he was so bad last season, and I don't know how much of that was rust that he can shake off versus, you know, potentially a new baseline that, you know,

scares me a little bit. Jamie, why a 10 on Cooper? Yeah, I'm not worried about last year, you know, being thrown into it at the time of year that he was thrown into it. It was,

you know, a little difficult, I think to expect Deshaun Watson to look the way that he, you know, was going to look this it was a little difficult, I think, to expect Deshaun Watson to look the way that he was going to look this year with a full offseason with the team, getting a chance to hopefully get back to being the caliber of player he is. I don't think he's ever going to get back to being that guy, but we've seen what the number one receiver for Deshaun Watson could produce. And I think Amari Cooper, despite the additions of Elijah Moore and what they have there,

it's still going to be a big season for him. Another guy, you know, it's almost like we forget how overlooked Amari Cooper has been. You know, we always talk about Tyler Lockett and Brandon Cooks and those guys. Amari Cooper's been a very consistent, solid producer his entire career, and I think that's going to be the case once again. All right, Jerry Judy, 0-10, Jerry Judy. Eight. Yeah, it's a seven. Calvin Ridley. I should take that back. I have Judy ranked ahead of Cooper, so I guess I got to give him a 10. Okay. Eight. Yeah, it's a seven. Calvin Ridley.

I should take that back. I have Judy ranked ahead of Cooper, so I guess I got to give him a 10. Okay. Okay. Calvin Ridley. Ten. Yeah, ten.

Drake London. Nine. Three. Ooh. I guess we got to stop on that one here, Jamie. A little more optimistic about Drake London. Yeah, again, you know, the way he profiled as a rookie and his performance, despite the fact of the quarterback change

and I think a downgrade at the start of the season to an upgrade at the ending point of the year. I know this is not going to be a high-volume passing attack and what he did at the end of the season in the four games with Desmond Ritter, he did that without Kyle Pitts on the field. But I think there were only 10 guys, if I'm not mistaken, that averaged nine plus targets per game last year. And London did that in the four games with Kyle Pitts, excuse me, with, with Desmond Ritter without Kyle Pitts. So you figure it's going to be, I would, if I was doing

projections, I would say probably seven targets per game. And I think with what he can do in that offense, his profile, I think he's going to have a very solid campaign. And the rebuttal? I think for me it comes down to the Falcons' offense is a low probability bet to have two 1,000-yard wide receivers, let's say, if we want to, or 1,000-yard receivers. And so if I'm going to make the bet on one of them, it just comes down to the relative cost between London and Pitts, where I think Pitts going a round and a half later is just the better bet.

Okay, so I did tweet this last night, and it's kind of interesting, and it's unpredictable who's going to be a good passing offense. But over the last six seasons, looking at every wide receiver drafted in rounds four through six in PPR on Fantasy Football Calculator ADP, there have been 18 over the last six seasons who finished in the top 12 in PPR.

So three, on average, three per year. 17 of those 18 were on offenses that were top 16 in gross passing yards. So 17 of 18 who finished top 12 is a lot of numbers here. We're on, you know, top half, top half,

uh, passing offenses. The, the, the Falcons could have a gross passing offense, gross passing. Um, no.

Yeah. And like, I actually, I said it was a round and a half difference between drake london cow pits the the adp that we're using is since june 15th that has grown to 27 spots in that time drake london's adp is 44.1 uh kyle pits is 71.6 so the the lack of interest in drake london is mostly relative to kyle pits but i but I think I'd rather make the bet on the guy who, if they both have 800 yards,

Kyle Pitts is going to be a better fantasy option this season, right? Obviously, touchdowns, but if they put up the same numbers and their target shares were very similar, their average depth of targets were very similar, all those things, if they put up similar numbers, Kyle Pitts is going to be the better fantasy option because the floor to being a must-start tight end is much lower. So it mostly comes down to the comparison between his team. Okay, so that's kind of a nuanced answer.

Jamie, can you see us, Jamie? Because I know you're in studio. Okay, so thoughts on this comment. Because the YouTube commenters are giving us Dan on the can. It looks like Dan's in the bathroom all the time. Thoughts on this comment, because the YouTube commenters are giving us Dan on the can. It looks like Dan's in the bathroom all the time. Thoughts on this. It looks like Chris is shirtless and has a hairy chest. I do have an incredibly hairy chest, just to put that out there.

Yeah, that shirt color, it does like for a second, for a hot second, as Matt Walters says. It looks like Chris is shirtless and has a hairy chest. All right, we'll pick up the pace here on the draft-o-meter. DeAndre Hopkins, 0-10. Three. Impossible to answer, but I'm a four right now. I don't love the places that it sounds like he's going to sign. Man, I guess I'm higher.

What? I'm higher. This guy is arguably the biggest target hog in the NFL. He has 10 targets per game everywhere he goes. It's just for me, I think the most rumored places are New England, Tennessee, and I want to say Buffalo has pretty high odds on the various betting markets but it sounds like New England and Tennessee and

I just I have no interest in him in either of those spots I think I'm fine with Tennessee yeah I might like Tennessee okay just because we have seen AJ Brown be a very good fantasy option there but the volume would still be pretty bad.

All right, we'll just do numbers here for the last ones because we're going to get into these guys. DJ Moore, 0-10. Sadly, it's like a 4 for me. 6. Terry McLaurin. 6. Christian Watson.

9-7. Christian Kirk. 5. uh christian watson nine seven christian kirk five four uh chris godwin six six mike williams five five michael pitman Michael Pittman. Five. Four. Deontay Johnson. Six. Five. Brandon Ayuk. Six. Four. Tyler Lockett.

Like a 10. Four. Just because nobody wants to draft him. I mean, that is one where he's basically in the seventh round, so you have to. As you get lower, the value becomes better for these guys. Right. I did ask you to do it without.

It's kind of a hard exercise, as I said, try not to consider value. But it's hard to ignore Lockett being the last one in that group. All right. Commercial break. Zero to ten. How do you feel about that? Ten. All right.

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All right. We're back to continue this discussion here. Um, I asked you this earlier. Uh, so when you look at rounds four through six, is this a time that you're targeting wide receivers? Jamie,

you want to give the short answer of that? Uh, yes and no. Depends on which guys we're talking about in this range okay uh chris are you targeting wide receivers as you do your roster build i gotta get some receivers in this range it's so hard because i start to like ideally no i don't love this range of wide receivers and the values but then i think like well i want one of the first three quarterbacks and i want a hero rb and i would love to have one of the top two tenants.

Like, well, at some point you're going to have to draft wide receivers. So yes. And by default, based on what happened last year. And again, you don't want to do all of your draft strategy based on what happened last year. But based on what happened last year, you'd be sort of insane to not take a wide receiver. One of your first two picks,

because it was so incredibly chalky last year, you'd be sort of insane to not take a wide receiver with one of your first two picks because it was so incredibly chalky last year. Um, you know, so just, just saying, um, which wide receivers do you like best in this range? Jamie, who are your favorites? Uh, Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, um, Christian Watson, Judy Cooper Jerry Judy and Cooper Chris who are your favorites so we are not counting Gebo here right no okay Keenan Allen Jerry Judy

Calvin Ridley Christian Watson Tyler Lockett okay and I would say that just to go back to your top 12 comment that you tweeted about Drake London, if these guys finish 15, 16, 17, are you going to be upset?

No, but the title of today's show is League Winning Wide Receiver. No, no, I get that. But, you know, Drake London is the one you obviously referenced. So if he's being drafted, I don't know where this list starts in terms of overall wide receiver. So if you can tell me that, it's a great question. So that's,

it's about wide receiver 15, I think. So 17, 17. Okay. Oh, right, right.

Um, there are 16 of them in here. So yeah, Debo Samuel is wide receiver 16. I guess I could have put him in there. Keenan Allen is wide receiver 17. Drake London is wide receiver 21. I guess I could have put him in there. Keenan Allen is wide receiver 17. Drake London is wide receiver 21. Right.

So if he finishes at that spot, you're obviously, okay, you got your return on investment. You're, you're looking for more. That's, that's clearly the goal whenever you're jacking these players.

And so I, I, I like personally, everything you guys said about Drake London, just to circle back to that. I don't know if you want to stay on London since, you know, I don't know what point you want to talk about. But I'm not – I'm hoping he's going to be a top 12 guy.

Anybody I draft, I'm hoping he's going to be a number one player. But I'm going to be realistic about it, though. I think that's sort of how you have to approach these things. It's like, okay, if he's 25, okay, maybe I failed. If he's 30, it's a bust. If he's 18, did he do his job? Yeah. Well, let me ask you this, though, right? So Drake London is, I think,

one of the most interesting players this year. We love the player. We don't love the situation. It's basically the summary, right? He's going in between Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has obviously been the number one wide receiver before. Calvin Ridley's been a top five guy before. So if you're deciding between those three, how can you justify taking Drake London over Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins? I would take Ridley over Hopkins, and I would also go a little bit

further, and I would take Watson over London. I'm sorry, I would take Ridley over London. I would take Ridley over Hopkins, and I would also go a little bit further, and I would take Watson over London. I'm sorry, I would take Ridley over London. I would take Watson over London as well. For me, when it comes to London and Hopkins, and again, depending on where Hopkins goes, if you're telling me he's in Tennessee or he's in New England, those offenses to me feel similar in terms of what the pass volume could be. Now, you would expect Hopkins goes to one of those two teams,

as Chris alluded to. We've seen a star receiver recently with the Titans, you know, with AJ Brown two years ago. But I think in those two situations, an older receiver, and we had this, if you want me to look up the numbers again, what guys do post 30 has not been great. And I know you countered that by saying he's in that different category, which is fine, but post 30 new team coming in late, where the rapport with the quarterback is really not going to be there. I'm going to take the chance on the younger player. I'm going to be an ageist here and take the youth of, of Drake London.

So yes, the upside still, I think favors Hopkins, but I'm going to take, I think the, the, what, what could be as much upside and maybe a safer floor. And I know that sounds strange to what Hopkins has done, but I think you saw what Drake London could be, and I think he could be just as good as Hopkins in those situations. Yeah, I think it comes down to the idea of, like,

DeAndre Hopkins can be a big hit player. Like, I think he could have another 300 PPR point season which is like you know not elite elite but it's very high end it almost guarantees a number one fantasy wide receiver season I think it's also very possible that DeAndre Hopkins is just we've seen the end of him as a high-end fantasy option and you know he could have 150 point ppr season in either of those offenses i think those both of those are are very likely london i think the floor like jamie said is probably higher i will say that the the chances of a 300 point fantasy season you know a 1400 yard 95 catch 10 touchdown season i I think that's really, really slim.

I think there are two players in this group who it's easy to talk yourself into. In theory, I think him and DJ Moore are very similar because I like both of them as players. But I just I think the situation doesn't lend itself to a really, really high outcome or a high upside outcome. I think that that's the thing with both of them is great players just hate the situations they're in yeah and the counter argument to the stat i brought up about 17 of 18 wide receivers being on offenses that were in the top half of the league and passing yards gross passing yards uh is that we get surprises all the time you know we get the eagles last year and you know we get we get these teams that are not supposed to be

good passing offenses, but they end up being good passing offenses. Obviously, we can't sit here today and project that for the Bears or the Falcons, but stranger things have happened. The Eagles went from the lowest pass volume

team for sure, and maybe the worst is a tough word, but like the worst passing output in 2021 to, you know, incredible in 2022. Really, really good in 2022. So, all right. I mean, I think when you look at a lot of the guys on this list,

a lot of it is who their quarterback is. And that's the biggest question. You know, it's the Atlanta situation. It's the Chicago situation because of Field as a passer. It's the Green Bay situation because of Love and his uncertainty. It's Anthony Richardson when it comes to Pittman. It's the Baker Mayfield most likely in Tampa Bay. I mean, all these guys have quarterback issues.

And like Chris said, the talent of the receiver is not the question here. And even the situation is not the question because you could still get a great receiving performance from these guys, even in a poor passing volume scenario, but it's, it's okay. Do I really want to buy into,

as we saw with a guy in this list already in, in Deontay Johnson to Kenny pick it again. I want to buy into stacking questions on top of questions, right? That's the problem. Yep. Yeah, totally. And I've, you know, I say this all the time. I'll say it again. As we get closer to drafts, to buy into you're stacking questions on top of questions right that's the problem yep yeah totally and i've you know i say this all the time i'll say it again as we get closer to drafts

wide receivers and offense i mean the the wide receiver position fantasy finish is much more correlated to the quality of offense than the running back position is so you definitely want to get wide receivers on good offenses it's year in year out um okay so i asked you who you like the best tell me who are the best values though like the best. Tell me who are the best values, though. We started looking at ADP. Who are the best values here? Chris? It's got to be Tyler Lockett,

who's just been the most undervalued player in fantasy for probably five years in a row now, and we're just going to do it again. I've seen drafts where Jackson Smith and Jigba goes ahead of him, which I think it's fine to like Jackson Smith and Jigba as a player, but Tyler Lockett is a legitimately proven high-end wide receiver at the NFL level who has been incredibly efficient

with multiple quarterbacks, multiple offensive coordinators. I just, at some point, I guess, the people who are fading Tyler Lockett have to be right, but they've been wrong so many times that I tend to just believe that Tyler Lockett is once again going to be a wide receiver two who's drafted as a wide receiver three. And I'll take the discount. You know, I'm happy to take Tyler Lockett as my usually my number four wide receiver if I'm drafting him in like the seventh round. But I love the value there. Agree, Jamie?

I mean, it's hard to argue with the value there. I do think that we've never seen this before. In the Pete Carroll era, we've never seen this in Tyler Lockett's tenure there that they've had three receivers of this caliber. And so I agree with Chris. I would not take Smith and Jigba ahead of Lockett yet. But I also think that we're just going to see across the board,

the numbers down for them, because this is another situation where you talk about offense. I don't think even the addition of, of Smith and Jigba, they're all of a sudden going to say, okay, now we're opening things up even more. It's just not Pete Carroll and what he wants to do. So, you know, it makes them tougher to defend. You know, I've said this with not just the receiving core. We've never seen this with the running back group, that they have two guys as talented that could maybe, you know, cannibalize each other a little bit, at least based on what Ken Walker showed and what Zach Charbonnet should show.

But it's like a whole new world here for Seattle. So, you know, they have so many ways to hurt you, and it's going to be fun to watch. But I think for what we do here, it's going to be fun to watch, but I think for what we do here, it's going to be very frustrating. So while Lockett has been very consistent and has outperformed DK Metcalf in three of the last four seasons, I think all the numbers just come down while there is a little bit more parity among the three guys. And Lockett will be 31. It's worth pointing out. Right, another part of it. So I think his value

is fine. I am curious to know a couple of the receivers going after him because I think we could find some guys that might be a little bit better as well. Well, then I'll tell you. Traylon Burks, Mike Evans, Kadarius Toney, Marquise Brown. Yeah, you can argue a couple of those guys. Better than Lockett.

For me, it's Christian Watson. I think if he hits to the level that he's capable of, you know, this is a guy that's going to be the number one receiver, should hopefully dominate targets. You know, the question mark, obviously, is what's going to happen with Jordan Love and how this offense will operate without Aaron Rodgers there. But, I mean, what he is as an athlete and his opportunity here, plus what he showed in that stretch of games, you know, following, I believe it was the Dallas game last year.

There's just so much to love about what he could become. And he did it with, you know, a lot of touchdowns, you know, which is the scary part, you know, so you never want to say those touchdowns are going to be replicated. But, you know, when you talk about a guy and his big play potential, and I think how this offense will scheme to get him open and some of the things that, you know, Matt LaFleur has said this offseason, you know, I know just this offense will scheme to get him open. And some of the things that, you know, Matt LaFleur has said this off season, you know, I, I know just from the conversation I had with him at the owners meetings about that, they're going to, you know, put them in,

in different spots, you know, and the things that he was able to do as a rookie and the things that he was able to comprehend quickly. I'm just the most excited about him where he's going relative to this position. He was the number seven wide receiver in half PPR, number nine in full PPR, top 10 per game in both formats in the last eight games of the season.

This is Christian Watson. And he did that with a quarterback who threw 28 passes per game and averaged 200.5 passing yards per game. So it was not like he did that with peak Aaron Rodgers. Christian Watson is wide receiver 25. When I think about good values here, I'm reminded about two players who were proven commodities

that nobody liked and ended up having really good years. And I think about Keenan Allen in 2020. They had the quarterback change. They got much better play from Justin Herbert than we would have thought. He was a rookie, started with Terod Taylor, and it was quickly Herbert.

And I think about he was wide receiver 23 in ADP, and he finished as wide receiver 6 per game in PPR, 13 per game in non-PPR. And I think about Amari Cooper last year. He was wide receiver 34. He was actually almost an eighth-round pick last year. Obviously, the quarterback situation in Cleveland was bad, and he was coming off a bad year too, a disappointing year. Obviously, the quarterback situation in Cleveland was bad, and he was coming off a bad year, too, a disappointing year. He ended up as a top 10 wide receiver overall, top 20 per game.

And when I think about those two guys, Chris Godwin comes to mind this year. I know we can easily discount the quarterback situation. They might stink. There's a lot of reasons not to like Godwin, but he is wide receiver 27 right now. He is a late fifth round pick in between. It's like Christian Watson, Christian Kirk, Chris Godwin, then Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Deontay Johnson. Jamie, do you see comparison there? Could Chris Godwin be one of the big surprises and have a top 12 season the same way those two veteran wide receivers did? I don't know that high, but I think he could certainly surprise people. You know, I think the writing off of the Bucs passing game is probably a little bit premature. While Baker Mayfield was clearly terrible last year in Carolina, he did go through the Sean McVay car

wash and looked a lot better in Los Angeles. And hopefully that's the case is that, you know, better coaching and we'll see what the coaching situation and how everything goes there in, in Tampa Bay. You know, the offense coordinator comes from Seattle where they've gotten great wide receiver play with some, you know, questionable quarterback going in last year in particular with Gino Smith. You know, we didn't expect the Seattle guys to be successful and they certainly were with, you know, Gino Smith under center. But the biggest concern I have with Godwin is, aside from the quarterback change and the pass volume, they're talking about moving him outside. And while he certainly was good in the early part of his career, mostly with Jameis Winston under center,

I think he's best suited for fantasy to be in the slot more. And so they'll mix and match and they'll move guys around and I think he'll still play plenty in the slot. But the more time he spends outside versus playing inside, I think is just going to bring his raw numbers down. And that's not going to necessarily help his production for what we are talking about here. So if they keep him inside, as we've seen with Baker,

Jarvis Landry was great great you know in in their rapport in Cleveland um I just don't think that Godwin's numbers will pop like they could if he's playing on the outside more so than he's playing on the inside all right fair enough how would you rank Christian Watson Chris Godwin and someone we haven't talked about a lot Terry McLaurin. I would go Watson, Godwin, McLaurin. I have it Godwin, McLaurin, Watson, but they're bunched up together and just looking at it doesn't feel great having Watson below them

just because I do think the likeliest outcome is probably that Godwin and McLaurin are a little more productive than Watson, but you have to factor in that. I think Watson is the one of the three that has the big blow-up potential. All right, which wide receivers should we avoid in rounds four through six? I feel really bad about it because I think DJ Moore is one of the 12 best wide receivers in the NFL as a player.

I think he's so talented, but I think the situation is arguably worse than most people give it credit for from the perspective of a wide receiver. And a big part of that is last season, 26% of Justin Fields dropbacks or sorry, the bears total dropbacks did not end in a pass attempt more than one fourth of their dropbacks. The next highest rate was like 87% or 13% didn't end in a dropback. They were far and away. It's it's Justin Fields takes a lot of sacks and he scrambles a lot. And I think, excuse me, I think the, you know, the offensive line and the weapons around him improving can change some of that somewhat.

But I think that's always going to be a part of Justin Fields' game. It was a big part of his game in college as well. He's going to take sacks. He's going to get, you know, take off for scrambles a lot. So even if they throw the ball a lot more, there's going to be a ceiling on how much they actually throw the ball, if that makes sense. So I really like DJ Moore, but I just I think if you want to make the bet on DJ Moore having a Stefan Diggs level impact on the Bills offense, just take Justin Fields and bet on him taking a big step forward because I think even if that does happen, it's unlikely that DJ Moore is going to have 1,200 yards.

I think he's capped as a mid-range wide receiver, too, even in a 90th percentile outcome. I think this conversation will be a little bit different if DJ Moore were going late in the sixth round like Deontay Johnson, IU can lock it. That's where he should be gone.

Yeah, he's one of the first in this group. You know, he's kind of in the middle. Allen, Cooper, Judy, Ridley, London, Hopkins, DJ. And he's falling. He was like a third round pick about a month and a half ago in a lot of these drafts. So he's already fallen. And if he falls to like to the sixth round, I have no problem taking DJ Moore. I think he's a fine pick there.

But as a third or fourth round pick, I just can't justify it. And Jamie, who are you avoiding in this range? Hopkins. Okay. I mean, just again, age, destination. Buffalo or Kansas City changes that. But if he goes to New England or Tennessee, I'm out. I don't know.

I just am not bothered by his age because he has been, I think we call them a borderline Hall of Famer. He's a candidate. And when you look at other players who have been as successful as him, they've been just fine at age 31. So I'm not bothered by it as much.

Rare, though. There are rare guys that have been good at that age. But he's rare. He's rare, you know? Yeah, it's one of those things with David Ortiz in baseball where there's only ever been four 39-year-olds

who have put up a 900 OPS, but there were only seven 38-year-olds who had done that. It's like when you start to do those filters and say, well, only X number of 31-year-olds have done it, you have to account for the fact that DeAndre Hopkins was also really, really good as a 30-year-old.

There aren't a lot of guys at 30 who were 11 targets per game kind of guys like DeAndre Hopkins was. Yeah, number nine wide receiver per game in PPR, number 13 in non-PPR. I guess he'll be, he's 31. Devante Adams is six months younger than him, you know?

So I, I just don't, that's another guy I'm out on too. Yeah, I know, I know, but, but we could have been out on these two guys last year because of their age.

When they were 30, 30 is like a big red flag for people in fantasy, and they were awesome at age 30. Okay, I mean, I have... But they turned 30 during the season, correct? Hopkins did not. He's a June birthday, and Adams... I guess, yeah, I guess Adams was really his age 29 season. Yeah, he's a December guy, right?

Yeah, he's December, yeah. I have, like, Terry McLaurin's a December guy, right? Yeah. He's December. Yeah. Um, I have like Terry McLaurin is not gonna be on my team. I just pretty much in this group. I mean, the guys behind him seem so much more exciting. Michael Pittman. I don't really want,

I don't know about maybe Deontay Johnson and full PPR only. Iuke is interesting. These are, these are the last guys. I mean, Pittman, Johnson, Ayuk. And Mike Williams is interesting too. It might be pretty good value for him, but it depends what you think about Quentin Johnson. Reports have been good so far.

I feel like, Chris, you like Ayuk? Yeah, I like Ayuk. The problem is the 49ers offense is just a math problem. Is Debo Samuel going to get enough work in the running game to make up for IUK potentially being the number one wide receiver? That's kind of the balance that you need to happen for both Debo Samuel and Brandon IUK to be top 30 wide receivers is IUK gets 85 carries and scores five or six rushing touchdowns.

But then what does that do to Christian McCaffrey? And how big of a role does George get? All these questions that you have, it's really hard to make all of those guys work. But IU is going at enough of a discount that it's a bet on how good of a player he is. I think he's a really, really good wide receiver. The likeliest outcome is he's a wide receiver three, but

if Debo Samuel misses eight games, could Brandon Ayuk be a wide receiver one for those eight games? I think that's within the realm of possibility. Jamie, what do you think about Mike Williams this year? If you look at him per game, he wasn't even a top 30 wide receiver last year, but

if you take out the two games he missed, or no, sorry, two games he left early with an injury, I'm sorry, by the way, I was wrong. Full season, he wasn't top 30. Per game, he was not top 20. He was 22 per game last year, which I think was really disappointing considering how much he played without Keenan Allen.

But if you take away his two partial games, he would have been closer to top 15, Mike Williams. Now you do have Quentin Johnston there, but looking at Mike Williams as the 28th wide receiver off the board, 63rd overall, is that good value? I mean, if he stays healthy, yes. We already got the report that Quentin Johnston has worked himself into the you know, the three-receiver group, you know, which is not a surprise, but, you know, how much of that is just, again, like Chris said about the 49ers, a math problem, you know,

and the nice thing is that you have Kellen Moore and he's going to, as Mike McCarthy said, try to light up the scoreboard, which is going to be great for Justin Herbert and these receivers. The question becomes, though, is, you know what Keenan Allen's going to give you, and then what do the two outside guys do to sort of help or hurt themselves?

And so I think Mike Williams is still more talented at this point than Quentin Johnson just because of his time in the league and his rapport with Justin Herbert. But at some point, there could be a flip in the middle of the season where Johnson is just a better player. And so that's the concern, plus the injuries that you factor in with him. That's been a problem. Last year it was the ankle back at the end of the problem. You know, last year it was the ankle, uh, back at the end of the season, you know, he was dealing with the back issue, uh, through the majority of the

beginning part of the off season just recently came back to their last mini camp. So I think this is the right spot to take a chance on him. Um, there'll be some weeks where he wins you your league and there'll be some weeks where you just, you know, very frustrated with having him on your team. Yeah. I think you just got to ride the roller coaster with him. That's one of those ones where it's like trying to figure out which weeks he's going to boom and which weeks he's going to bust. I think you just got to go with him and take the three for 40s with the eight for 116s.

Right. All right, that's Mike Williams. And if you subscribe to the theory of draft-wide receivers on good offenses, then you're probably taking him over Michael Pittman and Deontay Johnson. Are you guys probably taking him over Michael Pittman and Deontay Johnson. Are you guys taking Mike Williams over Michael Pittman and Deontay Johnson? I would rather have Deontay Johnson in PPR. I struggle with Deontay Johnson so much.

You know, the reception perception. So does Kenny Pickett. Well, every quarter. Well, that's the thing is that, you know, he's so inefficient. I looked this up yesterday. There have been 13 seasons by a Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver over the past four with at least 50 targets. Now, he's gone way past that, but 13 of them.

His best ranking among those 13 yards per target came his rookie season when he averaged 7.4. It was the sixth best out of those 13 seasons. The other three seasons that he's had have been like ninth, 11th, and 12th. He's just so inefficient, but he gets open like nobody else in the league. He's one of the truly elite route runners. He's open all the time.

He gets so much separation that the quarterback's going to throw it to him. I don't have much question about the volume. It's just why is he so bad at that the quarterback's going to throw it to him. I don't have much question about the volume. It's just why is he so bad at catching the ball? Why is he so bad at picking up yards? I don't understand. It's been Roethlisberger. It was with Mason Rudolph. It's now with Kenny Pickett.

It's been with Mitchell Trubisky. There's been no quarterback that he's had true efficient success with. It's all been volume-based. But if the guy's going to get 150 targets, even a 7.5 yards per target season would be a really, really good outcome. It's just he's never done that. But it's not that hard to get Deontay Johnson to 1,200 yards with just average efficiency.

He's just never even approached average efficiency. It's one of the more interesting, like how bad can a wide receiver be in the NFL if they're one of the best route runners in the NFL? It's like, it's such a weird thing about Deontay Johnson as a player. All right, we got to take a break here. We'll come back.

We'll wrap this discussion up. We got an email about wide receivers that I want to read. First, I want to tell you about our pre-draft Zoom calls that you can have with us. And if you go to tinyurl.com slash FFT donate, tinyurl.com slash FFT donate, you can see there are still calls with Heath, with me, and with Chris available. I guess Dave and Jamie sold out already because everybody wants to talk to them. But if you can't talk to them,

you can talk to us. And they start at $50 and that all goes to St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital. St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. So that is obviously an amazing cause. All part of our draft-a-thon. We've raised a lot of money so far. And we're going to do it.

I actually have a call at 3.30 today, so I'm looking forward to talking with you people out there. And please, tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. Donate. Be part of this. All right, we'll be right back to wrap things up. Okay, let's see if we missed anything here on Fantasy Football today, discussing wide receivers in rounds four through six. Do you think Traylon Burks belongs in this range

instead of some of these other guys? Or Jahan Dotson? Maybe take a shot on one of these year two guys. I would draft both over Williams, Mike Williams, over Pittman, over Ayuk, and over Lockett. That's assuming that there's no Hopkins in Tennessee. Yeah, that's, that's the tough thing is that's looming over trail and Berks. And if Hopkins is there, I think he drops, you know,

10 spots potentially. So among the guys not being drafted in this range, I would say Marquis Brown is the one who I could see, you know, pretty easily cracking this group. He was a top 10 wide receiver. The first six games of the season without Deandre Hopkins last year. Obviously that was with Kyler Murray, but you know, if Murray returns relatively quickly,

I think Marquise Brown could be a really nice value outside of the top six rounds. And let's just finish talking about Jerry Judy. I feel like we sort of glossed over him. There seems to be a lot of optimism in the fantasy community. I think he's a guy who's ADP rising in Jerry Judy. I feel like we sort of glossed over him. There seems to be a lot of optimism in the fantasy community. I think he's a guy whose ADP is rising in Jerry Judy. He's the third guy in this group.

Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Jerry Judy, head of Calvin Ridley, London, Hopkins, Moore, McLaurin, etc. Jamie, are you all aboard the Judy bandwagon? Very much so. I think the coaching change and even what we saw last year after Hackett was fired and just the way that this offense looked

and where Russell Wilson looked and just what Judy showed you at the end of the season. There's a couple of wild cards in this. What the run game is going to look like. Is Javante healthy and how much will it get production out of the run game whether it's Javante or Samajai P. Ryan. And the return of Tim Patrick, that's a big part of this, that they didn't really have that option there. And what he's going to bring, Marvin Mims is also going to be a part of this too. So it's a fairly crowded group,

but this is the guy that should stand out above the rest. His route running is phenomenal. You can't watch him play and not see what he's able to do. Another guy like Chris alluded to with Deontay Johnson's got some drop concerns, but when he puts it all together, it's going to be fun to watch. I think this is the season where it finally happened. Last year, again, battled some injuries. When he came back, he was just an absolute star, and I think that's the type of player that we're going to see with a better offense, better passing game, better quarterback play, and certainly better coaching from the Broncos.

Yeah, his last eight games, you take away the one game where he only played one snap, but his last eight games, Jerry Judy's pace was 94 catches, 1,288 yards, and eight touchdowns. It was actually very reminiscent of what Russell Wilson's wide receivers used to do in Seattle. It was super efficient, 121 targets. So the volume wasn't massive. That was the 17- game pace, excuse me. But yeah, the catch rate

was 78% over those last eight games, which has always been an issue for Jerry Judy. So that's a really promising sign. If you're going to bet on a Russell Wilson bounce back, I think a Jerry Judy breakout makes a lot of sense. And if you miss out on Jerry Judy, I think you should probably draft Russell Wilson or Cortland Sutton's going pretty late too. If you, if you believe in a Broncos bounce back,

the value is very good. And even if you just look at the whole season for Jerry Judy, he was wide receiver 22 per game, which is just a little bit behind his ADP here. It's like, or like basically even, um, uh,

no, he's 20. I'm sorry. I'm looking at last year's. Judy is 2019. Okay. Anyway, there's a lot of reasons to like Jerry Judy. So let's read an email at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com and it comes from Luke.

He says, Dear Scotty, Brooks, John, and Rory. Those are golf men. Yeah, that feels like golf to me. I didn't fact check this, but... Last four majors is what I'm going to say. Okay. I didn't fact check this email, but it looks right.

It looks good to me. When looking at receivers with the most receptions in their first two seasons, the top eight are all currently in the NFL. Amandra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham, Jalen Waddle, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jamar Chase. Those are the receivers with the most receptions in the first two seasons of their career. Is this just a coincidence or does it imply an overall NFL trend towards getting younger

receivers involved sooner? This gives me a bit more confidence to take Garrett Wilson as high as round two, but it also makes me much more willing to consider Jonathan Mingo. He could dominate the target chair pretty quickly if the Panthers are willing to put him there. I really, specifically on Jonathan Mingo, I can see the case for it. I just really struggle with a guy

who played four years in college. His last year in college wasn't the best wide receiver on his last year in college wasn't the best wide receiver on his own team in terms of production and the guy who outperformed him didn't even get drafted like that i i get it he doesn't have a lot of competition although dj shark and adam thielen aren't nothing uh but it's just like he didn't have a lot of competition in college and he wasn't the best wide receiver on his own team. So that's just, that's a tough one to get past. I think he's a fine, you know, if he, if he goes outside the top 100, who cares? There's no risk in taking him, but that's just,

it's, it's a player I struggled to get excited about because the case is almost entirely, I mean, he was a second round pick, so it's not entirely about the lack of competition around him, but yeah, it's why couldn't he beat out bad college players and why is he suddenly going to beat out NFL players is the thing I struggle with. It's, yeah, I agree with what Chris said. You know, it's not a bad flyer to take, but this feels like one of those teams, you know,

I know for me at least, I got excited a little bit about Terrence Marshall, you know, when he went there and the opportunity to be the guy opposite DJ Moore. And yes, you've got DJ Char coming off an injury-prone season. You've got Adam Thielen at 100 years old. But you're also asking Bryce Young to be a guy that's going to support maybe two of these guys.

I don't know if that feels like something that's realistic in this offense. It feels like they're going to be a low-volume passing offense as well in Carolina. I think the earlier part of this question, though, and this is for somebody like me who's been doing third-year receivers, writing about third-year receivers forever, you're definitely seeing these guys peak sooner. It goes back to any number of theories, and I've spoken to a lot of receivers over the years about this, but things change for them in their third year from just comfort factor, rapport with quarterbacks, understanding systems, understanding how to beat coverage. Those things are never going to change because experience obviously breeds success.

But what they're accomplishing early is phenomenal. And it's funny because I just started writing the third-year receiver story last night. And so the way I usually break it down, I'm going to pull it up how I have it. So I usually have the stars, which are guys you're taking the first three rounds. Listen to the guys you're taking the first three rounds from the 2021 class. Jamar Chase, Amara St. Brown, and whatever already went to these guys.

Jalen Waddle, Devontae Smith. Those are guys from the class. Easy. Then it's these are the guys that I would put usually as the next group, as guys you're taking in like the first six rounds overall, so, you know, four through six. There really isn't anybody there. But these guys have so much potential if they hit.

Kadarius Toney, Nico Collins, Elijah Moore, Rashad Bateman, Ron Delmore, and I threw Terrace Marshall in here just because, again, opportunity. But the problem is is like there's so little room for these guys to get better statistically in their third season. Jamar Chase I don't think is going from 20.1 PPR points per game to 25. It'd be great if he does, but that's a tough leap to ask him to get better. The second group is where you can see the growth. But even Devontante Smith last season,

he went from his rookie year, nine 64 catches, 916 yards, five touchdowns, 95 catches, 1196 yards, seven touchdowns. That's the type of leap you're looking for.

Usually from two to three, as opposed to one to two, but that's what we're seeing. So yes, Garrett Wilson could have a huge second season. Crystal lobby could have a huge second season. Christian Watson, Drake London, maybe not the same ceiling, but can's what we're seeing. So yes, Garrett Wilson could have a huge second season. Crystal Lovett could have a huge second season. Christian Watson, Drake London, maybe not the same ceiling, but could have a big second year. Traylon Burks, all these guys. It's a reason to buy into that year two wide receivers

and certainly the class from last year has a lot of potential. And I think a part of it is just we're seeing a lot more rookie quarterbacks making an impact and specifically starting from day one that we used to 15, 20 years ago. And I think a big part of that is just the NFL looks a lot more like the college game. Now, you know, the, the, the concepts that you're learning, the routes that you're running, the, the offenses that they're playing in, there's a lot less, there's still clearly a huge learning curve, but there's a lot smaller than there used to be on the offensive side of the ball

because every team in the NFL is running three wide receivers as their base offense pretty much, except for the Falcons and Browns basically. And so there's four wide receivers on the field constantly in college. Well, that's starting to happen in the NFL. So it's the kind of thing where I think a big part of it is just it's a little easier. Yeah. And, and part of it is also just, if you look at every rookie QB record, every first two cute year QB record, it's also a lot of recent quarterbacks. You know,

Baker Mayfield has some of the best first two year quarterback stats of all time. It's not because Baker Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks of all time. It's because he happened to be drafted into an era where quarterbacks are starting more often from day one and putting up big numbers because it's easier to pass in the NFL than it used to be. All right, fellas. Well said good stuff.

Tomorrow. We look at wide receivers around seven through nine. It's actually been really, really good. The last couple of years, arguably better than rounds four through six. So there's really good value in that range, and we will break that down

for you on tomorrow's show. Thanks to Jamie and Chris. Thanks to Thomas Schaefer for producing. Thanks to all of you for watching and listening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.