Fantasy Football Today - Let the Games Begin! | Training Camp News and Risers and Fallers in Dynasty Drafts

Episode Date: August 10, 2024

Heath Cummings is joined by Matt Chester to hit all the training camp news and notes before reviewing risers and fallers in the draft order.  Intro (0:00) What is your one non-negotiable Dynasty League rule/setting? (2:24) How do you process coachspeak? (4:45) Who increases Dynasty value the most in month 1? (5:37) Brandon Aiyuk situation (9:27) McCaffrey's calf (14:48) Bad vibes for Brock Purdy? (18:53) Cee Dee Lamb says LOL (22:05) Rico Dowdle vs. Ezekiel Elliott (24:42) Does Mike Williams being back matter? (27:31) Rankings Risers and Fallers (29:33) To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined today for the second time by Matt Chester on, at FFMadChester. Matt, thank you for being here. Let the people know where they can find your work and what you've been working on. Cool. I'm actually very sad not to be at the Expo right now. That was the biggest thing of the year, and I get to see all my buddies from the fantasy football community. You can find me on Twitter, at FFMadChester.

My name is Matt Chester. So this is a little play, a little easy way to remember it. We are opening up a website, Optimist Fantasy. My focus is mainly on Dynasty. And I'm really glad to see all the people waking back up to it, to the season coming up. So this is the time of year where like redraft rankings are changing almost every day because of things that they may or may not should be changing because of. But it's even more difficult in Dynasty to stay water and not let some of these things affect you.

It's funny. We look back every year on things and say, I wish I hadn't reacted to that or I wish I had reacted to that. We're going to talk about some of the news that's been coming out of training camp and how we're reacting to that. We're also going to talk about I just published on CBSSports.com my updated quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end rankings. Matt will react and tell me why I'm wrong or right to some of these risers and fallers. But generally the second time on a show, we don't do the three questions for a guest but the first time you were on the show i'm pretty sure it was a mock draft and so i didn't ask you three questions man i had a blast though that was that was a ton of fun and i ended up with

uh accidentally up ended up with a ton of ravens which was a nice surprise and then in scott fish bowl i ended up doing the same thing and i stacked stacked up Lamar, Derrick Henry, and Mark Andrews. And Justin Tucker. There's all kinds of upside in that, and I think in the Scott Fishbowl, that's exactly what you should care about is upside. I always struggle. People say if you're going to win a tournament with 4,000 people, you've got to forget about four and just play for upside.

But also, if you're the guy in the league who it's your job to do this and everybody else are just like want to play in a league with you, you kind of also don't want to miss the playoffs. So maybe I quote my odds of really winning a 4000 man tournament. I know what my odds of embarrassing myself if I only draft for upside are. Let's go with three questions for Matt Chester. And this one gets asked to all of our guests. You are starting a new dynasty league. What is your one non-negotiable ruling rule or setting? And you can't say super flex, can't say super flex. And I'm going to limit myself again, because it seems like every guest you have says they want tight end premium. It's a very popular answer. So let's just say that

that's standard too. If I'm going to start a dynasty league, I'm going to need a slow draft startup with pick trading in it because trading is my favorite part of dynasty. It's, it's basically a stock market, um, for, you know, you got to balance value. You got to balance when now you got to balance when later you got to decide on what you want to do. And the startup draft is probably the best time to do that with the most action. And it's going to be the time where everybody is locked in the entire time. You get to know all your league mates, you get to make, you know, up to 11 new buddies that you might end up going into different leagues with, or you get to reconnect with friends that you're in other

leagues with, which is how most people find new dynasty leagues is they, they find a good league. And then, um, you know, they make some friends along the way and those friends say hey guys uh it's time for another one and they collect new people and you know it's it's a people game speaking of slow drafts and friends jacob gibbs started a tight end university dynasty league and suckered me into you know every year i say i'm not going to add more leagues. I've got to cut leagues. Waivers are terrible. I got to cut leagues.

And then people ask me to join leagues and I joined them. And we are in round four of our slow draft. And I will tell you, I traded away my first round startup pick. Ooh, already. So you've committed. I traded back eight spots and acquired a 2025 first. And so it basically turned into, he received,

it's a tight end premium and you are forced to start two tight ends. Ooh, heavy. He got Dalton Kincaid with the sixth pick of the draft who I probably wouldn't have taken there anyway. Right. I took Jamar chase with the 14th pick in the draft and i have his first round pick next year nasty good trade great value probably equal if not

better points and you're gonna have a lot of chances to make up for that lack of a tight end absolutely so let's go to question number two how do you process coach speak training camp highlights pre-season action beat reports all of these things like what what's the key to determining what we react to and what we don't i would say i would not listen to coach speak when coaches talk up a player yeah especially if it's not you know especially if it's just once or, but I will listen to coach speak if they are disappointed in a player, because that's much more rare and it's much more telling to talk down a player. The exception is I'll, I'll listen if they're talking up a player, if it's consistent, if there's a consistent drum beat along the way. No, I like that. It's much better than my answer,

which is if it confirms my priors it's true if it goes against my priors they're lying to you and you shouldn't listen to them question number three who is putting you on the spot here like we're gonna make some dynasty trades in the month leading up to the nfl season who is the one player who increases his dynasty value the most in the first month of the season? Oh man, I should have read the show sheet because I'm not ready for this one. I think DJ Moore is still just ridiculously undervalued. I think that you're picking him up still in probably the fifth round. I'm not sure what his ADP is, but it's not as high as it should

be. I think he's going into his age 27 year. He's going to be, they just re-upped his contract to where he's going to be attached to Caleb Williams for the next three or four years. You should be valuing him as a rookie who has already shown that he can be number five wide receiver in the league with terrible quarterback play from a quarterback that's not even starting anymore in the league. And now they've got Caleb Williams. And if Caleb Williams hits at all, he's probably going to be leaning on his veteran wide receiver who's shown what he can do. And has a long contract for Caleb Williams to grow with him. So I think that's like really you hit the nail on the head because DJ Moore is one of my rankings risers.

Partially due to that contract, he is up to wide receiver 24 for me in Dynasty, which I think probably you'd say is too low. I do. So how high would you rank DJ Moore in Dynasty? Hmm. Top 12 wide receiver? Oh, I think so. I think that last year I was ranking Ayuk as a top 12,

and it was just kind of unheard of. Might be situation, might be all these other factors, but you have to factor in what they've done before. And Iuke last year, I think, was top 15. He was top 15 the year before. And with his age, there's no reason that he should have been that low. And DJ Moore is the same way. You're only playing in a two to three year window and there's no reason to discount a 27 year old wide receiver who's going to have at least another brown and in the top he's probably around wide receiver eight in dynasty there's no reason to do that if you're going to get three years of top four play in a wide receiver and it's it's the same with dj moore it's the same with aj brown those are my most traded for

wide receivers this year in dynasty it's silly to discount ages of those guys in the same way that it's silly to discount ages of quarterbacks who are 30 years old. You know, if they're, if a quarterback is 30 years old and he's still playing in the league at a very high level and he has a contract, why would I value a 23 year old, um, or a 22 year old CJ Stroud, you know, two firsts more than Dak Prescott when Dak Prescott has shown longevity, he's shown that he's going to be a consistent producer in the league. And with quarterbacks, if they play until 35 years old, you're looking at a six-year stretch from a top four guy

instead of overvaluing the youth on CJ Stroud, who, you know, top 12, very good for a rookie. I don't even know if he hit that this last year, and we're hoping for him to jump up. But give me the consistency with the refreshes on draft capital for a rookie i don't even know if he hit that this last year and we're hoping for him to jump up but give me the consistency with the refreshes on draft capital that i can use in whatever liquid way that i want to down the line excellent stuff and great job mentioning brandon iuk there because we're going to talk to him talk about him right after this short break so you mentioned brandon

iuk and he he is a guy who has been in the news a lot without anything actually happening. Like there's definitely trade demands. There's there's trade talks happening. He's not practicing. He's not actually doing anything. You mentioned him as a top 12 wide receiver. I ran a Twitter poll a couple of days ago,

kind of asking if Brandon Iuke has traded to the Steelers, does his redraft value go up down or stay the same if he's does his dynasty value go up down or stay the same the winner plurality not majority both polls was down more people thought that his value stayed the same than went up are you concerned at all about the Brandon Iuke situation? Do you want him to stay? Do you think he could go somewhere else and see a higher target share and actually be better than he's been? How are you feeling as a guy who clearly rosters a lot of Brandon Iuke? I do. And it has me a little bit nervous just because I don't want him to go to an Arthur Smith offense where we saw Kyle Pitt.

Last year under Arthur Smith, we saw Kyle Pitts and Drake London not do very well, and they're both absolute studs. So to see him go to an Arthur Smith offense where he has to share with probably multiple tight ends, share withorge pickens and working on offense i just he's not going to be in a better offense than he is right now he might get more volume but he probably won't see the same quality i think he was probably the number one in efficiency last year his efficient his efficiency marks were ridiculous i don't know if you have those not not not even repeatable for a 49ers wide receiver he's going to be less efficient this year no matter where he plays right so my hope is that he stays there yeah and keeps being undervalued and i can continue to buy more in hopes that they

do end up trading debo or you know kittle's very good, but he is often injured. Same with Debo. And I want to see Brandon Ayuk's value. I want to see his volume go up in Shanahan's offense. I want to see him get more volume where his efficiency is at the max ceiling. I don't want to see him get more volume in a less efficient offense. So let's presume that you don't already have like 70% brand IUC exposure. 40, which is a lot. Yeah, that's a lot.

That's a lot. You just have a normal amount. Is this a situation where you're pricing in a little bit of risk because of all these trade rumors? Or are you buying the dip? I'd say I'm still buying the dip. I'm also buying Debo for the first time ever, because if I does go right,

those targets are going to have to go somewhere. And Debo's still very good. Debo was a top. He was a wide receiver one last year in points per game. He missed a couple of games. That's fine. He's inconsistent. That's fine.

It also has to do with where the targets are going on that offense and if iuk does leave debo is going to be the biggest beneficiary of it and we've seen a like not quite to this level i think actually on a per catch basis debo was actually better in 2021 than iuk was last year 18.2 yards per catch in 2021 17.9 for iuk of course the the the warning sign for iuk is that the the two years after that 18.2 from debo he's been at 13.1 like you cannot maintain a receiving average like what those guys have and if the san francisco volume you do have to have elite efficiency to to sniff that top 12 as a wide receiver unless as you said one of them goes away

we've got andrew in the chat saying exactly what he knows that i'm saying i've been one of the biggest george pickens buyers and promoters over the last six months. And we're all terrified. Are you trying to sell Pickens beforehand or is the Pickens panic already hit a level to where you're just holding and hoping? Can I tell you something that I'm really embarrassed about? I still have zero Pickens. After all these years, after all this promise, what we want to see is his phenomenal play get an increase in volume. And I just don't know that that's going to happen under Arthur Smith. And if I does go there, yeah, that if I does go there, I'm probably going to buy Pickens at that point. Cause he'll probably be affordable. I saw Pickens go for the

108 this year in rookie drafts, and I just don't see his value being worth what a Drake May or JJ McCarthy or Brock Bowers. I just don't see Pickens there, but we'll see him going for two seconds pretty happily if I get traded to Pittsburgh. And at that point, I'll probably see what I can do, especially with, you know, cross positional leverage trades. Pickens price will drop if I goes there. Now's not the time to buy Pickens. Now's the time to inquire about Pickens and see how everybody feels about it. There's another 49er who's got a little bit more uncertainty around him than we thought he did a month ago. It's Christian McCaffrey dealing with a calf injury. We saw a calf injury plague Joe Burrow a lot longer than was projected last year. acted like his age is not a concern because when he's his best, he's so much better than anyone else. But we would not give a 28 year old running back this type of ranking basically at any point

that I can remember in dynasty. He goes sometimes in startup drafts before Bijan Robinson or Brees Hall, which I think is a mistake. Now we've got this little calf injury that could turn into a long term nagging thing. If you're a contender who's been holding on to Christian McCaffrey, how terrified are you? Oh man, I was going to ask you this question. I wish you didn't go there. Let me ask you this. What is your Christian McCaffrey buy price versus sell price on a contender either way so i've got him behind before the calf concern i've got him behind bijan brace gibbs and taylor at running back oh taylor that's interesting because he's three years older like there's a very good not not very good but there is a very understated chance that christian mcafree's dynasty value

six months from now is like a third round rookie pick christian mcafree i think what if he yes i think we we really underestimate how fast these guys fall off it's not a gradual decline for running backs. They hit age 28 and anything goes wrong at all. They like, I know Austin Eckler wasn't ranked as high as Christian McCaffrey, but Austin Eckler was a surefire first round redraft pick last year. If you was one of the best running backs in the NFL, what can you get for Austin Eckler right now? Nothing. You're right. A third. So I, I, i am still hopeful i'm

still rostering mcafree on some contenders but even on a win now team i am entertaining the offers of like give me some future value and another top six running back and let's go from there make me better at another position and i'll downgrade a little bit six running back. And let's go from there. Make me better at another position and I'll downgrade a little bit at running back because I think you could go from a situation where you've got a, I mean, round two at worst, startup pick that turns into, like just evaporates. Let me ask you, if somebody sent you as a contender,

a first and a second for Christian McCaffrey, what running back range would you need on top of that first and second, or would you be, would you be okay with the first and the second? So I think if you are not a contender and for some reason you still have McCaffrey on your team, then you should be okay with the first and the second. Interesting.

That's fun. Cool, man. All right. Let me ask you this derrick henry probably two years old three years older i think he's 31 now um i could see if he misses the year i i do believe that his value would drop to a third where do you see him in comparison because they're you know they're they're both go ahead and again like i think we you and i probably just run to a different place in terms of valuing age amongst running backs because derrick henry is

not a top 30 dynasty running back for me right now oh i think i like i just i i wouldn't give up a first round pick for derrick henry right now um i i would give up a second i think he is probably like the things i said about christian mcafree and what he could turn into are the same the difference is christian mcafree might outscore every running back in full ppr yet this year by five points derrick henry's upside might be that he finishes as a top six or seven running back i do want to get to the next question because like this begs the question. We've got the Brandon Iyuk not wanting to be there. We've got Christian McCaffrey dealing with a calf injury,

which is at least a little bit worrisome for a running back. Are we feeling any bad vibes for Brock Purdy and this 49ers offense as a whole? I've seen some people predicting like they might not make the playoffs this year. Are you feeling any bad vibes for the 49ers or Purdy with the Iuke situation and the McCaffrey calf? Not really.

I don't, I don't, I'm not going to buy him anywhere that he's valued. Where as a top 10 right now, he probably will end up being a top 10 right now. I don't think his value should be very far off from Baker Mayfield because they both have what three years left on their contract. They both showed top 10, but not top four upside. I don't know. I'm not buying. You're not buying right buying right now so and this is like a range that I find fascinating I am feeling a little bit of bad vibes about the 49ers and I don't have Brock Purdy as a top 10 Dynasty quarterback by any stretch um but I look at the way people are viewing Jordan love who I in the startup I'm in right now, just went ahead of Justin Herbert. Jordan Love is a year older than Brock Purdy and just scored one-tenth of a fantasy point fewer than Purdy last year and six points per pass touchdown leagues, which is what

CBS leagues are. What's the big difference between Brock Purdy and Jordan Love? I would say their offensive coordinator, because Shanahan will give points to his team no matter what happens. He's just brilliant. He's going to, you know, that team is going to score 50 plus touchdowns every single year, no matter what. I don't know that Justin Herbert is going to score 30 touchdowns through the air this year. And that's a big difference in six point passing touchdown leagues um i think the time no i'm wanting to know why is love going ahead of purdy oh okay um i don't know i don't know that's interesting uh i'd say probably draft capital

capital from three years ago finally is going to come into play, which shouldn't be the case three years later. But it is Love's first year starting, and he did very well in his first year starting. If you counted it as his rookie year, he should definitely be above Brock Purdy because of the draft capital. And the fact that Shanahan is rightfully arrogant as to what he can do with a Mr. Irrelevant. I think that the play with quarterbacks in San Francisco is probably just to pick up Josh Dobbs on your waiver wire because we've seen him be very good in lesser offenses. He's very smart and can deliver the ball pretty consistently to the players that he needs to get it to i think josh dobbs could do as well as brock purdy if he was given the chance and that's a free play that's a free square you can use anytime versus using what two first and two seconds to buy pretty i don't

know what he costs right now but whatever it is it's probably too much so yesterday we had a tweet come out that jerry jones basically saying that he feels no urgency in negotiating with cd lamb and the best part of it was cd lamb quote tweeted it with an lol um we asked about the vibes in san francisco no one's getting paid in dallas i see cd lamb go as wide receiver one sometimes in startups he's wide receiver three for me, but in the same tier as Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson. You mentioned how much you would prefer to roster Dak at his cost over CJ Stroud at his cost. Are you just basically moving forward as if Dak Prescott and CD Lam are together for the foreseeable future and we contract negotiations be damned. I think you have to.

And, and as to CD being in that top three tier, what we don't notice, what I didn't notice until I looked it up, he's the same age as Justin Jefferson and Jamar chase. And I don't, I'm not sure why he's why he's pretty consistently lower than those two. You know, he, he has Dak Prescott right now.

I think that they're both going to play. I think Dak is going to resign. I think CD is going to play and resign. I think Jerry Jones is 109 years old and he's not really, he doesn't have the luxury of playing for the future. He should just get his players. And I think he will. And what, what, what Dak and CD might be doing is, uh, they might end up saying we'll play

for one year for, for Dallas. And we're going to bet on ourselves because the wide receiver market will get more expensive and we will cash out when we're both incredible. And I like when players are playing for a contract. I think it gives them a little bit of extra incentive. I think there have been studies that have shown that once a quarterback signs, he doesn't have quite that burning desire to prove himself. And quarterbacks and wide receivers over any other player have that chip on their shoulder

where you want them to be upset about the friends you know the friends smiling with a knife behind the back they think that everybody's out to get them and for wide receivers it i understand that nature because everybody's trying to light them up and kill them and they they should feel like they're always being uh you know the target so i think like CeeDee Lamb and Dak spot in this offense. Jake Ferguson's the number two option. We've got a lot of question marks when it comes to the running back situation. Ezekiel Elliott is the presumed week one starter. Rico Dowdle, it has been both reported that he's behind Royce Freeman

and that he's ahead of Ezekiel Elliott. But that being said, like I, while I don't like acquiring running backs, super cheap running backs in dynasty that are going to touch the ball are often good buys this time of year. If they're super cheap, like not if they've been priced up like Alexander Madison was last year was as Amir White has, but somebody at running back in this offense is probably going to touch the ball 15 plus times a game. And nobody in this offense

at running back costs anything. So how do you view Rico Dowdle versus Ezekiel Elliott or maybe Royce Freeman? And what's the most you'd be willing to put up for any of these guys? I think where you ended that question is where we should start with it. What are their prices? If you're willing to buy, um, I think you could get Ezekiel Elliott for a third, fourth

swap. And I'd be happy to pay that because all you're looking for in your, in your running backs is production year to year. You're, we shouldn't be looking at what, you know, anybody past, probably Jonathan Taylor was the one that you said was you have met RB4, RB3? RB5. RB5. 4 or 5, yeah. Great. Anybody past that, I'm not looking for more than one year of production, right?

Because we've got a really good and deep running back class coming out next year. We don't know where what anybody's status is going to be past the top five guys. And with that being the case, people are going to discount Zeke because of his age. I've never seen Rico Dowdle do anything good. And I'm a big proponent of finding value in points that have already been proven versus prospect points. You know, I'm, I'm so done with betting on Tyler Beatty, um, or these players who might not make the starting roster because of their youth at the running back position. Um, look at, look at three years ago when Pittsburgh let go of James Connor and drafted Najee in the first round.

And since then, James Connor has been better for your fantasy team because you know when to start him. If he's not injured, he's going to be a top 12 guy. His price has been ridiculously low, and he's given us a bonus year for the last three years. So it's the, it's the James Connor versus nausea debate where I just want the guy who's going to give me one year of really good production. And I'm not going to count their value going forward because that's a fool's errand in running backs. I like it. I think,

I think I'm okay buying either one of those guys for a third, fourth swap, but I do think it's still probably Zeke this year. Mike Williams is back for the New York jets off the pup. Not sure if he's going to be a hundred percent for week one, but he's at least practicing getting hugs. Garrett Wilson is absolutely torching any corner who tries to cover him and practice reportedly. Does Mike Williams matter? I don't think Mike Williams matters. I was happy to get him as a throw in last year, and I was happy to get rid of him for two fourths, just because I'd rather have the bench space than have Mike Williams.

I think if you're starting Mike Williams, you're in big trouble anyway. And I don't want to start out my year in big trouble by relying on Mike Williams, even as, um, you know, a third bench wide receiver. I just don't see it happening. Does any wide receiver in New York matter besides Garrett Wilson? So Xavier Gibson, if your league values return yards. Okay. But other than that, no, because, uh, you know, in, in Scott fishbowl, I think they, the return yards count twice as much as, uh, receiving yards, unless there's some weird quirk in your league like that, there's just nobody past Garrett Wilson that I like or that I trust. You've got a couple of people pounding the Tyler Conklin cheap free tight end drum. I just don't

want to start any of them. I don't want to start my season with players that if I have to rely on them, I'm in big, big trouble anyway. Let me clear roster space and pick up next year's rico dowdle let's uh take one more break and then we'll get some of my rankings risers and fallers cool so we do have some rankings risers some guys that i think maybe i've already been higher on than consensus but they moved up a little bit more for me over the last month uh to a tongue of iloa another guy who signed a contract locked into and tyree kill did as well locked into one of the best situations for a quarterback he gets the brock purdy system bump because of mike mcdaniel he has tyree kill and jaylen wattle and i think really underestimated like listen in a four point

per pass touchdown league he doesn't run enough like I said, CBS is six points per pass touchdown league. I don't, I don't have a hard time believing that he could be one of those quarterbacks. Like we've seen Aaron Rogers do who has a top five season without producing rushing points. And that's because of just how incredible he's been as a passer over the past two seasons. There's been some injuries and some weather and some stuff that have maybe clouded that a little bit, but 2022 led the NFL in touchdown rate yards per attempt and passer rating and net yards per attempt. 2023 led the NFL in passing yards. Last year, we saw the touchdown rate fall a little bit, and I view that as more of a product of how many blowout wins the Dolphins had. Their defense lost

a lot of guys this offseason. I don't think the defense is going to be as good. I expect 600 plus pass attempts from Tua and think it's the possibility of him going 5,040 is really underrated. He is my QB 12. I do have him ahead of Brock Purdy, a guy that we talked about earlier. I do have him ahead of Jordan Love. But again, I mentioned that tier Tua, Lawrence, Love, and Purdy, basically all the same for me. I just have Tua at the top of it. I love that. I think that's the perfect tier. All those guys have high upside. They have consistency. They have contracts. I've been holding onto a lot of Tua for three years now, and I've been cashing out this off season. I cashed out before he got the contract. I don't know that his rise from QB 14 to QB 12 is enough to make me regret selling early. Right. Uh, I think that there's a few things that you

can weigh out. The one is the health of Waddle last year. Waddle was very, uh, busted up last year. He had a high ankle sprain. He just, a lot of time and the time that he came back he wasn't performing at his peak i think that you're right that that two it could hit 5 000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns one issue that i have with it just looking year long is that you mentioned weather he's he's really not great in the cold weather and this contract extension has given him a bump and if you still have tua your window to open your window to sell has opened and i think that it's only gonna get he's gonna increase in value for the first 10 games now after 10 game after after week 10 every year of his career he's probably averaging about 16 points per game and six points for passing touchdown leagues. I think that part of playing Dynasty is having

plans for when to buy and sell players during the year. And I think that you've got about 10 weeks for Tua's value to rise, barring any injuries. But by the time people are bolstering their uh playoff rosters and they're looking towards the future they might want to retool without um breaking it down they might want to still compete and i'm planning on selling whatever two as i have left by week 10 because he's still going to be very, very good. And I just think that those cold weather games are going to kill him down the stretch. Um, and if you look at the schedule, like you get to use that week, like their 11th game is, uh, maybe Thanksgiving, but no Thanksgiving week, November 24th, they're at home.

Then they go to green Bay, November 28th. That's, that's a question mark. It's a night game. So it's probably going to be cold. Um, then they're back at home.mber 28th that's that's a question mark it's a night game so it's probably going to be cold um then they're back at home then they're in houston that's going to be okay then they're back at home then they go to cleveland week 17 so fantasy championship is a huge red flag he's probably a quarterback now this again gets into the Superflex or the 1QB discussion. In 1QB, you probably have multiple quarterbacks that you can start, and you can probably plan around this. In Superflex, he's a quarterback who could absolutely let you down

in the fantasy championship. He's also a quarterback who could absolutely get you there. Let's talk about a wide receiver who's been moving up. And I don't know if a Patriots wide receiver is going to matter this year but you mentioned drumbeat the drumbeat has been very positive for jaylen polk i was a demario demario douglas guy um still am but he's been banged up giving polk a little bit more opportunity played the most snaps with the starters in their first preseason game was wide receiver 54 for me is wide receiver 43 what do you think the upside is for Polk or is are you a Javon Baker guy or do none of the

Patriots wide receivers matter you know the drumbeat on both has gotten really really loud and everybody thinks that Baker has the higher ceiling A lot of people are still excited about Polk. I think that I'm just probably out on all of them because I've always been out on New England wide receivers. And I know that their coach is different. Their scheme is going to be different. I just don't want to decide between Polk or Baker and their quarterbacks. I don't, I don't have a path to any of these guys being really good or you know probably a top 36 is the most that you could ask for any of them and i don't want to bet on which one is going to be top 36 because i don't think the ceiling is going to be that much higher so between poke and baker if they're if their values are rising i just don't want any part i don't i don't see are you not really a drake may guy

i don't even know if you know with the way joe milton played last night everybody's pounding the table for for joe milton right now and i don't know who's going to be starting this year between his you know brissette through week 12 or even to end the year drake may um you know there's been iuk talk talk to new England as well. So if there's a time to buy Drake may it's when Joe Milton is getting all kinds of love, um, through this silly preseason talk. Uh, I don't want Drake may at his even probably one Oh six to one Oh seven, uh, rookie pick value right now but with that being said if you can get him as a throw-in right

now i you could make a he would he would i you could send drake may into the stratosphere as far as going from a bottom 20 qb to a top 13 qb okay And I sent, so I sent a couple offers yesterday. I have a team where, and this was a big strategy of mine last year was to have Jordan love and to be my QB three and QB four on a bunch of teams because their value was great. Uh, you can only see them going up and it worked out well. And I was able to sell a few tours in the off season. I was able to sell a few Jordan loves in the off season. I sent out an offer yesterday for Jordan love to a bunch of different managers in my league. One of the offers was Jordan love for Drake may. And I don't remember who it was. A Nico type player.

Oh, you know what? It was waddle who wad's a big buy right now too, because I do think he's top 10 and people are not still respecting him as much better than Nico. And I think he is much better than Nico. So I sent Jordan Love for Drake May and Waddle and somebody else accepted an offer. And that guy came back to me and said, man, I didn't see this. I would have traded Drake May and Waddle for Jordan Love. I'm so sad he's gone. I said, well, would you like Tua for Drake May and Waddle?

And he said, no, no, no, that's just not enough. I don't want Tua for both of those players. I think that probably right now pivoting from a Tua or a Jordan Love to a Drake May and a good starting wide receiver is a really clever move because I could see Love or Tua going down by this time next offseason and i could see waddle skyrocketing and possibly even drake may taking a big leap um this year forward but not with the weapons that he has right now i think i think that also just kind of shows something we've talked about several times throughout the show there is a perception around jordan love that is different than the tier where i have him so people are buying into him as

a top 10 dynasty quarterback who has top five upside and i just think he probably belongs in that borderline qb1 tier and will probably stay there one more riser i had jake ferguson i really had kind of like everybody talks about the when the flip was switched or the switch was flipped um with cd lamb and dac prescott and lamb just went to the moon in the second half of last year and the targets got very concentrated and he jumped into this top tier as we were talking about. He's right there with Jefferson and with Chase now. And what it doesn't seem like people recognize at this exact same time that happened, the number two in the offense became very clear also. Jake Ferguson, completely dominant. And then that playoff performance where he sees

double digit targets and has 93 yards and scores three touchdowns. He looked like a top five tight end in the second half of the year. He is all but guaranteed to be number two in targets in his offense, which often is something that leads to a top five season at tight end. He is entering in his third season as a tight end, a very common breakout year for tight ends. He was my tight end 10 back in July. I've, I've bumped him up a couple of spots. He's now tight end eight. Um, and I, I wouldn't be all that surprised if he moves even higher in the coming year. Where are you at on Ferguson? I think that's interesting because I think that there's a tier of probably seven tight ends. And then there's a tier of probably seven tight ends and then there's a tier of tight end eight through tight end 14. And however you want to place

Najoku versus Ferguson is probably fair between their ages and their productions. I think that Najoku is a much better player, but like you said, usage is really really nice his talent might not be as nice and that's a that's a win now versus win later decision do you want you know two years ago dalton schultz the cowboys number two target getter uh who was who was there i'm blanking who was the cowboys tight end for the longest time well whitton whitton jason whitton catch and fall guy tight end premium that's a huge value because you want 20 more catches in a tight end premium league more than you want 200 extra yards in a tight end premium league and he's probably not going to be valued very well um i like jake ferguson this year i think you can capitalize on it temporarily i i don't know how much i love the

value going forward just because his his metrics are not great but his production will be i don't know what to do with that and i think that's like i don't't know, like David Njoku is 28 years old. Evan Ingram is 30 years old. I don't know. It seems like all three of those guys, you're mostly just having a this year conversation. Anything you get beyond that. The only thing that really concerns me with Njoku is there's a pretty significant split last year in his target share when Deshaun Watson was playing quarterback and when everyone else was playing quarterback is absolutely 22% with anybody but Watson 15 to 16% with Watson. And so I'm not

sure that the strong finish we saw in the second half of the year is indicative of anything to come in 2024. Well, the strong finish that we saw with Njoku last year was with Flacco, who was really, really good in a points per game. I think he was probably, I think if you just look up points per game last year, Flacco was like top three. Now, part of that and part of Njoku's strong finish was that his depth of target was under three yards per target. I don't know what you want to do with that other than pair him with a Joe Flacco, who's going to

throw it three yards downfield and give him to Joku, uh, eight and a half targets per game. That's a really, really nice finish. I don't know that it's going to carry through with Deshaun Watson either. I don't really like rooting for the, for Cleveland. And, uh, like we mentioned before with Tua playing at Cleveland in the championship, Cleveland weather down the stretch is always horrendous. They are having thunderstorms all throughout the fantasy playoffs. It's going to be super, super cold. I think that there was a confluence of events that made Njoku look really nice down the stretch. I don't know which way I would go with these two.

I would probably just take a second on top of either one and be happy to trade off of either one. Well, I can tell you that based on consensus rankings, the guy you would get the second with would be Ferguson because Njoku and Ingram both quite a bit higher in terms of consensus rankings than Jake Ferguson. That is Matt Chester. That was Fantasy Football Today.

I want to thank Harry producer, Harry. Um, I'm your host, Heath Cummings. And as normal, we will talk to you next Tuesday. Paramount podcasts.