Fantasy Football Today - Look Out for the Sophomore WRs! (02/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 22, 2021

There is a lot to be excited about as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk and Chase Claypool look to build off big years. We'll talk about those guys and so many more as we assess the Year 2 WRs. First, we've got some trivia (2:30)! Let's see how Dave and Chris do, and then we'll get their rankings of the Top 5 sophomore WRs (7:10). Why is Dave so high on Higgins? And who checks in at #6-8 (18:00)? ... Which sophomore WR could lead his team in targets (24:00)? And who are the sleepers and busts (34:10) to keep an eye on? ... We put the rookie performances of these WRs in perspective (44:40). You may not realize just how elite Jefferson was in 2020 and what it means going forward ... Email us at [e-mail] Subscribe to the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Subscribe to 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Probably looking at the best class of rookie wide receivers now going to be sophomore wide receivers since that 2014 draft class, which is going to be pretty tough to beat.

Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins. Oh, also Devontae Adams, Alan Robinson. Yeah, we'll talk about them within this show. I'm very excited for this show. You know, I love me some year two wide receivers. So let's talk about this group. I'm very excited for this show. I love me some year two wide receivers, so let's talk about this group. I'm Adam Azer with Chris Towers, who talked to me about this group of wide receivers yesterday

on Fantasy Football Today in 5, aired today, this morning. And Dave Richard is here. And Dave, Chris and I are pumped about these receivers. Are you? Of course. They are awesome. They've got potential to be um filling up at least three spots in the top 12 among receivers in fancy 2021 well chris only has one in his top 24

that's interesting now yeah yeah and there's there's room to improve i think i have three in my top 24 and the reason why i said three in the top 12 is because I think everyone sees it with Justin Jefferson. And I think that T Higgins can get there. And I think that one more from Claypool lamb, I'll even say Jerry Judy. Um, and you know, maybe I could, if things go the right way for him, um, Claypool, if things go the right way for him. Claypool, if things go the right way for him. They could potentially make it in the top 12 too. These will be receivers that fantasy drafters go after pretty hard on draft day. And because of that,

I think there will be other receivers that aren't the shiny new second-year guys or the shiny new rookies. That'll slide a little bit. So there's going to be some value created at wide receiver because of these wide outs. Hi, Chris. Hello again.

Hey. How's fantasy baseball today going? It's great. You know, we do it every day. Yes. So that's always fun. Check it out, and you can watch it live, 10 p.m. Eastern on weeknights on Twitch,

on the YouTube channel. Facebook. Yeah, so. Get ready for your fantasy baseball season. Yeah, I think just broadcast cable. Let's go over to Chris's house. You can see it. Yes.

Justin Jefferson. All right, let's do some rookie wide receiver trivia here. Let's see how you guys do. Justin Jefferson scored the most fantasy points among rookie wide receivers. Who scored the second most?

And let's give our listeners, you know, five seconds to think about it themselves. Who scored the second most? And let's give our listeners, you know, five seconds to think about it themselves. Who scored the second most fantasy points among rookie wide receivers? I mean, okay. Okay, who wants to answer first? I'm going to say Claypool.

Yeah, that would be my answer. You guys are correct. It's Chase Claypool. He was 14th in non-PPR, believe it or not, and he was 23rd in PPR. All right, next trivia question. Justin Jefferson was number one among rookie wide receivers in points per game.

Who does number two work for? Who is number two? Five seconds. Three, four, three, two. All right, Chris. Dave, who wants to go first? I think I got it. Yeah, I think I do too.

Brandon Ayuk. Brandon Ayuk. You think I do too. Brandon Ayuk. Brandon Ayuk. You guys are on fire, Brandon Ayuk. All right, Justin Jefferson had the most catches among rookie wide receivers. Who had the second most? Answers in five. Okay, who's got it?

Second most catches. I know who I want to say, but I'm worried that I'm going to break my streak. I'm going to say CeeDee Lamb. That's who I was going to say. You guys are on fire. It is CeeDee Lamb. All right, it gets a little harder now.

Among rookie wide receivers with 50... What was that, Dave? I stood up and did a 360. Okay. Among rookie wide receivers with 50 or more targets, Jerry Judy ranked second in average depth of target. Second in ADOT, Jerry Judy among rookies with 50 or more targets. Who ranked first?

Did Ruggs have 50 targets? I'm going to guess that he did. I will say Henry Ruggs. I'll go Denzel Mims. Ruggs did not have 50 targets. He was fourth in ADOT, but he did not have 50 targets. Fourth overall, not among rookies. The answer is Gabriel Davis.

Gabriel Davis. Oh, big G. That makes sense. All right. And finally, in his last seven games, Brandon Aiyuk. He could be a huge sleeper this year. Yeah. Depends on what happens with John Brown. In his last seven games, Brandon Aiyuk was a blank wide receiver on a per-game basis.

Was he top five, top 12, or top 20? NFL. Top five, top 12, or top 20. Brandon Aiyuk in his last seven games per game. Top five, top 12, or top 20. Brandon Iyuk in his last 7 games per game. Top 5, top 12, or top 20? This is PPR we're talking? Both. He was pretty close to top 5

until the last couple of games. I'll go with Big 12. Yeah, I'll go top 12. You guys suck! He was top 5. He was 4th in non-PPR, third in PPR in his last seven games, which included a big dud in his last game when George

Kittle came back. He was on pace for 105 catches, more than 1,300 yards, and nine touchdowns on 162 targets, about 10 targets per game. I think he only had two targets. Maybe five targets, two catches targets per game. I think he only had two targets.

How many targets? Maybe five targets, two catches in that game with George Kittle. He averaged like six targets per game, six-something targets per game when Kittle was on the field. They played in six games together. So it's a huge strike against Iyuk and why you shouldn't be crazy excited to draft him. Yeah, and he only played four games with Kittle and Debo Samuel.

So there were two games that he played with Kittle without Debo Samuel. All right, that is trivia. You guys tied. Good job. I'm sure one of the listeners out there did better. Now, if you want to do even better when it comes to stepping up your streaming game, check out Paramount+. All right, this is a big deal here.

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and Live Sports, as I mentioned. So it's Live Sports. It's breaking news. It's a mountain of entertainment. It's Paramount Plus streaming March 4th. Now you've got your heads up. Paramount Plus, March 4th. Time for some rankings. Give me your top five year two

wide receivers. Top five year two wide receivers. Top five year two wide receivers. Dave, you can kick it off. Shall we do it the same way we did the running backs where we go five to one? That was fun. Yeah. Five. Okay.

Chris, you good? You got your top five? Yes. All right. Let's give me number five. Dave? Number five for me is Brandon Ayuk. Okay. Chris? Chase Claypool Brandon Ayuk. Okay, Chris.

Chase Claypool. All right, Dave, four. C.D. Lamb. Brandon Ayuk. Dave. Number three is Chase Claypool. Chris. T. Higgins.

All right, so let's recap. So far, Dave has Iuke 5. Who is 4? Lamb? Lamb. Lamb and Claypool 3. Chris has Claypool 5, Iuke 4, Higgins 3. Dave?

Higgins is number 2 for me. And Jefferson 1? Well, I mean, I don't want to spoil it. Judy won. Can you please? Jefferson six. It might be Brian Edwards. Okay.

Who's number two for you, Chris? CeeDee Lamb. CeeDee Lamb. We have the same people in the top five. Different order. So you also have Brian Edwards? Brian Edwards number one. Yes.

Great. I was just kidding. My number one is Justin Jefferson. All right, so from one to five, for Dave, it's Jefferson, T. Higgins, Claypool, Lamb, Ayuk. For Chris, it's Jefferson, Lamb, Higgins, Ayuk, Claypool. Well, how about we talk about T. Higgins?

Dave has him second. Chris has him third. No, it's more interesting to talk about C.D. Lamb. Chris has him second. Dave has him fourth. All right, go interesting to talk about CeeDee Lamb. Chris has him second. Dave has him fourth. All right, go ahead, Chris. CeeDee Lamb. Yeah, there's one, a pretty significant drop-off for me

between number one and number two. And then there's a very small gap between number two and really number five. CeeDee Lamb is number two right now, mostly because I think he's going to be in the best offense of these guys. I think he's, you know, at least equally talented,

if not, you know, you know, maybe the most talented of the group. And there are questions about how many targets both, you know, all three of Higgins, Iuke and chase Claypool will have,

but hopefully we will get some pretty significant answers to those within the next month or so when free agency starts, in which case I could see Lamb falling to number five. If A.J. Green walks and the Bengals don't make a significant addition, if Juju Smith-Schuster walks and the Steelers don't make a significant addition. Iuke, it's kind of harder to find, you know, the path to a larger target share unless there are just more passes available. If the 49ers go out and get, you know, Deshaun Watson or someone who's going to throw the ball more.

All right, David, and you have Lamb fourth. You just talk about the whole group, I guess. We'll talk about Jefferson separately, but you have Higgins second, Lamb all the way at fourth, Claypool third, Iuke fifth. Sure. I got a lot to say about all these guys. If I could summarize, I think it's simply put that they all have potential. I don't know if Iuke does, but Higgins, obviously Jefferson, but Higgins, Claypool lamb, they all have potential to be the number one receiver for the respective teams. In the case of lamb, it's great that he's got Dak Prescott coming back.

At least that's what we're assuming, but he still has to share with Amari Cooper and if Gallup is still there and whatever the running backs do. And I'm a little bit worried about him breaking through into 125, 130 targets, something like that. I think he's going to need an injury to one of his teammates for him to do it. So I think that you can look at him as, okay, a great number three fantasy receiver, especially in PPR, but he's got upside to be in that top 12 range. Like we talked about, I'm not going to put them anywhere near there because I think it's just safer to draft him

as that wide receiver three for your fantasy team. Or maybe you draft him as a wide receiver two, knowing that there's some downside baked in, there's some upside too. Claypool, I love the way that the Steelers used him, but he's got a lot of volatility. Who's his quarterback going to be? What's this offense going to look like?

Steelers are kind of a weird offense right now because their offensive line is unsettled. Their quarterback is unsettled. Juju, we don't know if he's coming back. We don't know what the run game is going to look like. But I did like how the coaches gravitated toward Claypool early last season. He had 13 red zone targets that I believe was second most among rookie-wide

receivers last year. Ayuk had the most. And I just, I see that role growing. I think his deep ball role will grow. I just wish he had a quarterback that I knew for sure could get him the ball in those situations. Higgins. Higgins is my favorite of everyone not named Jefferson. I am expecting A.J. Green to leave Cincinnati.

That'll open up some targets for Higgins. It should make him the number one receiver there. He also did well on deep balls. He did a great job connecting with Burrow. I'm going to almost promise everyone that Higgins and Burrow will get together to throw this offseason. And I think those two are really going to connect in a big way. I think Higgins has a ton of upside and I'm willing to bank on that. I'm willing to draft him closer to that top 12-ish range. I think I've met wide receiver 15 in PPR. Adam, I think he's got a great shot to meet that expectation and maybe climb a little bit higher.

He is great. And the Bengals are not a great team. Their offensive line will be better. That'll help Burrow. And they'll throw a decent amount because Burrow is the identity of that offense. Higgins finished as a top 30 wide receiver and he did reach 900 yards. And that is a big benchmark for rookie wide receivers.

If you have reached 900 yards, you're probably going to have a good career. I'll tell you more about that later. If you haven't, if you don't remember all of it from last year, 908 yards for Higgins in 16 games. And he really only played 15 games. He left after three snaps in week 17. So on pace for 969 yards in his 15 healthy games. So that's Tee Higgins. And what we loved about him, so consistent. Once he got going with Joe Burrow, his last

six games with Burrow, I think it was his last. Maybe it was six of his last. Anyway, he had a six-game stretch where he had 71 or more yards in five of six games he had uh 10 or more ppr fantasy points in every game 12 or more ppr in five of six games was he amazing no but he's very consistent you were starting him and in that stretch he faced baltimore he faced indianapolis he faced pittsburgh faced some bad defenses too jacksonville cleveland tennessee but. Very well. Okay, so let's say

this. Most likely scenario. You guys can tell me if you disagree. Most likely scenario, Dak Prescott is back. Yeah. Ben Roethlisberger is back. Hmm. I'm just saying it's the most likely.

I agree. A.J. Green is gone. Juju Smith-Schuster is gone. And Gallup and Cooper are back. So in that case, Chris, how much would that change your ranking since you have CeeDee Lamb number two, then Higgins, then Iyuka, then Claypool?

But I'm telling you that Green is gone in Cincinnati, and Juju's gone in Pittsburgh, and Roethlisberger's back, and Dak is back as well. Then what would you do if that were the case? That definitely shrinks the gap, and it

might be enough to push CeeDee Lamb down to fourth at the position. I think he's going to be ahead of Brandon. I, you, no matter what I, you,

there are just some sort of troubling things in his splits when Debo did and didn't play. And when Kittle did and didn't play, he was much better. Obviously when those guys didn't play Claypool, you know, I have him projected for the fewest targets of anyone in this group. I haven't projected for just 96 right now. So if Juju leaves, they won't all go to chase Claypool and Steelers will probably throw less than they did last season.

Just because I think last season what they did and they probably agree it was probably unsustainable. Yeah, they led the NFL in past attempts despite giving up the third fewest points in the NFL is very strange. Yeah, and it was like what 6, 660 or something like that? It was a huge number. So I would imagine they're going to throw the ball last, so it won't just be, oh, everything Juju Smith-Schuster got, you can just throw it on Chase Claypool. But I think you probably get him to 120, 125 targets,

and given what I think we project as his red zone prowess, his big playability, even with a quarterback I don't have a lot of faith in, I think there's a pretty good chance he moves up to number two at the position with Higgins third in the A.J. Greenwalk scenario and Lamb fourth ahead of Brandon Ayuk. But I think the gap between two and four is going to be very small. And as of right now, first runner projections,

Chris has only one wide receiver in this class in his top 24. Dave has three. You have, where are they? Jefferson Higgins and Claypool. Yeah. Where are they in the rankings? Jefferson is going to be in the top 12.

I think that's pretty obvious um he's seven for me jefferson is seventh for you he is seventh for me as well there you go higgins is 15th and chase claypool is 23rd one spot ahead of juju as it stands today and jefferson finished seventh in his rookie season, which is exactly what Odell Beckham finished as in his rookie season, except Beckham did it in 12 games. Beckham had an amazing rookie season, but that's the 2014

class. Beckham was seventh. Evans was 13th. Calvin Benjamin was 15th. Jordan Matthews was 25th. Sammy Watkins was 27th. Jarvis Landry was 30th. Jordan Matthews was 25th. Sammy Watkins was 27th. Jarvis Landry was 30th. So you had Kelvin Benjamin top 15. You had Jordan Matthews top 25.

You did not have Allen Robinson or Devante Adams with a good rookie year, really. And they're the two best right now, along with Mike Evans. So you never know how it's going to turn out. But that class had three top 24,

all of them were top 15 and this class, this recent class had three top 24 as rookies, but only Jefferson was in the top 20, four top 30 wide receivers. Uh, that class had six top 30 wide receivers. So it was certainly better, but this, we had a really bad stretch of rookie wide receivers and things have changed with this class for sure. So it's really encouraging. You gave me your top five. I'll recap for Dave. It's Jefferson Higgins, Claypool, Lamb, Iuke.

For Chris, it's Jefferson, Lamb, Higgins, Iuke, Claypool. How about six and seven? You guys got that handy? Who's number six and seven? I can go all the way to 15 for you, Adam. My number six is Jerry Judy. Okay. And number...

LaVisca Chenault for me. Oh, we're doing that again? But now you're counting back. Sorry. Now you're counting up. Wait, so that's seven or six, Dave? That's six. All right. Give me six and seven. Judy? Judy is six. Pittman is seven. Chenault is eight. Okay. Judy, Pittman, Chenault. We'll go six through eight.

How about you, Chris? Chenault, Denzel Mims is number seven for me. And then Judy is eight. Interesting group. Interesting group. All drafted pretty early. Dave goes six, Judy, seven, Pittman, eight, Chenault. Chris goes six, Judy, seven Pittman, eight Chanel. Chris goes

six Chanel, seven Mims and eight Judy Christian all number six. Yeah, I, I have a lot of faith in that offense being quite a bit better this season. And, you know, obviously this, the rookie season didn't go quite the way I think most of us hoped for Chennault, but it's not like he was bad. 600 yards in 14 games, 91 rushing yards. It wasn't quite Debo Samuel's rookie season, but there were some similarities in how he was used. There were some similarities in the skill set and the fact that he did it in uh you know a jaguars offense that was significantly less efficient than san francisco's you know i i think the fact that they were so intent on getting the ball in his hands 79 targets

18 rush attempts in 14 games i think that bodes well obviously new coaching staff new leadership team new quarterback all of that could uh lead to changes in how he's used, but that's not necessarily for the worst. It could be that he comes in as the number one option next season. I think he has the skill set for it. So I really like LaVisca Chanel and the fact that like Robert Woods, he can end up finishing better in fantasy than his receiving stats make you think he would is a nice bonus as well. I like him too, but if we're going to put him in that same category of underwhelming rookie year wide receiver as Jerry Judy, I'd rather have Judy. I think Judy's got

more upside in Denver to take a bigger chunk of that target share and be a bigger contributor to fantasy managers. But don't let that suggest that I don't like LaVisca Chenault as a speculative fantasy pick. I would rather speculate on Judy and Pittman ahead of him. We know Chark is still there, but I get the sense that one of those two, Chark and Chenault, one of them is going to fall out. And the coaching staff is going to find at least one more receiver in the draft

that they're going to want to pair with Lawrence. Am I giving it away that the Jaguars are going to take Trevor Lawrence? I don't know. I think that's also what it comes down to for me is I just have a lot more faith in an untested Trevor Lawrence. I think that's also what it comes down to for me is I just have a lot more faith in a, an untested Trevor Lawrence than I do a tested.

And I think mostly failed drew lock. Yep. I get that too. And they're neither one I think can be viewed as a surefire 100 target guy. Yeah. But if I had to pick one that I think had a chance to get to a hundred, if not 110, I would still say Judy because I think

he's gotten better talent than Lucas. I think he's a more talented receiver. I don't think he's as bad as he looked last year. I don't know why. Who are you talking about, Judy? I don't know. Judy.

You don't bother me about Judy. I mentioned that he was second among rookie wide receivers in ADOT minimum 50 targets. You know what bothered me about Judy? I mentioned that he was second among rookie wide receivers in ADOT minimum 50 targets. You look at all of the Broncos wide receivers, and their ADOT is so high. This is a guy who had the reputation of being the best route runner in college football. For sure.

Why is he just a deep threat? I just don't really think he was used properly. And I would say that they didn't use their receivers in general properly because they're just all of three, their top three receivers are all top 40 in ADOT. And that's when, you know, top 40 when you include guys who have really like no target minimum. John Hightower is number one, for example. So it's just ridiculous.

Like vary the offense a little bit here. I think part of that is just they were losing so much and you have to play more aggressively. And Drew Locke has... I think it's Locke. I think Locke has a bit of Jameis Winston in him. He definitely has a bit of a gunslinger mentality. He's just...

He's like a more mistake-prone Jameis Winston and a less talented version. I'm not a fan. I don't think he's very good. You don't say. The problem for me with Judy. I actually, the fact that he got so many targets and earned so many downfield targets and was frankly open so much,

I, that matters to me a lot more than the 10 drops, especially because six of those 10 drops were in that one weird game. So I just, I don't put all that much stock in that. That was never an issue for him really in college. So I look at the fact that he was open so much

and garnering so many targets as a better sign than the drops are a bad sign. I have questions about the offense and obviously we haven't seen him with Cortland Sutton. And so who's going to be the number one there is I think a pretty

uh interesting question that you know hopefully we get an answer to relatively early on yeah and they got to do something about lock well who's got who's got the best chance of being upside of the top five you know let's get past those top five, right? Best chance of being the number one receiver on their team. You know, you've got Jacksonville, you've got Jalen Rager, and Deshaun Jackson got released. Alshon Jeffries is probably not going to be back. He will have Dallas Goddard there, maybe Ertz.

But you got Rager. Pittman has a chance because T.Y. Hilton could be gone. Who's got the best chance of, you know, 110 or more targets maybe being the clear number one wide receiver on his team? Outside of those top five

that we've already talked about. Yeah, and this guy, and whoever you say is probably going to be ahead of Brandon Ayuk anyway. Maybe not, actually. But in terms of, well, Brandon Ayuk, I could see him

leading the team, but not getting like 110 targets, maybe. Right. We've seen that for the Niners before. In terms of, well, Brandon and I, you guys could see him leading the team, but not getting like 110 targets, maybe. Right. We've seen that for the Niners before. In terms of leading the team in targets or being their number one receiver, it might be Denzel Mims. It just might not be 110 targets. Yeah. And he might not, you know, he's an older player.

You know, we don't know who the quarterback is going to be, how good that offense is going to be. But if Jamison Crowder walks, I think Denzel Mendes should probably be the odds-on favorite to lead the Jets in targets. And it sounds like Jamison Crowder may not be back. He could be a terrific 10 PPR point per week receiver with Gus up to 15 and 20 on certain weeks.

He absolutely has that potential because of opportunity more than anything else in New York. It wouldn't surprise me if Crowder took a walk either with the offense changing and being different, although it wouldn't be his choice. He probably would like to stay because then he'd get paid. I got to go with Judy for your question, Adam. But Corlin Sutton will be back.

I know. Judy, there was talk from I know Brady Quinn said it right after the draft, and I know that others have talked about it. There was talk that potentially he could be the number one receiver really soon after both of them were on the field. And I know that sounds crazy because Judy had a terrible year,

but I see that talent, and I want to buy into it. And I know that if he had had even a solid year last year, if he had put up significantly better numbers than he did, but not necessarily top five among the rookie class, he would get reached for. I think that we're going to be able to say that Judy will come at some sort of a value, And it could be like round six. And they could fit really well together, Judy and Sutton.

They should. They're going to make it tough on defenses for sure. Yeah, I mean, if Sutton's the deep threat guy and Judy can kind of be a little bit more all over and he's got the skill set, I think, to play either role. And I think that deep ADOT, it's worth taking into account that the fact that he only got 54 of his passes the fact that he had so many deep passes is part of that you know those

are harder harder balls to to haul in sorry to interrupt you Chris what was that eight out again Adam because I've got a different I've got another number to compare that to. For Jerry Judy, his ADOT was 13.5. Okay. And according to our pals at True Media, his average route depth, now this is just whether he's targeted or not,

was 8.7 yards. It's 79th among all receivers in the NFL. Is there... Okay. So they just weren't throwing to him when he was running

shorter routes? I think it's a byproduct of Drew Locke's gun-slinging mentality. We've apparently gotten to the point where we're not comparing him to Favre, and we're not comparing him to Cutler, and we're comparing him to Jameis. And you know what? It ain't a wrong comparison. And the Broncos should be shoving everything they can into the Texans' face for Deshaun Watson.

Denver is my... That's my hoped-for land. Anytime there's a quarterback available. Yep. Stafford would have been amazing there. Yeah. Like who, what's the ideal landing spot? Denver.

They've got the weapons to, to turn into, I think one of the elite offense of the NFL. If, if the QB situation and the offense, it's crowded though. It could be better. We'll see what they do,

but it should be improved. Okay, so let me ask you about Henry Ruggs, who was the first guy drafted in this class, had a really disappointing... He didn't even get to 50 targets, as we already told you. Really disappointing rookie year. No Ruggs, no Rager in your top eight.

Are they in your top 10? Yeah, they're ninth. They in your top 10? Yeah, they're nice. They are nine and 10. Oh, how about that? Okay. Yeah.

Rugs is nine. Rager is 10. So tell me why my Henry rugs is not just Corey Davis or Corey Coleman. Both of those guys were the first ones drafted in their wide receiver class. They were first round picks their busts. I mean, Davis, you know,

finally showed up a little bit right why should i not the same type of receiver as davis he's more like why should i have faith in henry ruggs it's it's kind of a tough sell to be honest with you because i i don't know if there's um if there's a game plan in vegas for him to see a lot of targets every week, I think they love him as a deep ball guy. His speed is, yeah, it's a 10 out of 10.

He's among the fastest receivers in the league, but to expect him to come through on that type of speed on four targets a game or five targets per game. I think that's, I think it's very, very risky, but everybody knows it and you should be able to draft him accordingly and if you're talking about round eight nine ten for henry ruggs where the the risk is small and the upside to use him as a number three receiver is great

on a week-to-week basis yeah he's going to give you some weeks where he's two for 25, but he's also going to give you some weeks where he's four for one 25 and two touchdowns. You play that as your number three receiver. Sometimes it depends on your league. I wish we had gotten more of the, of the good weeks. You know,

it was, it wasn't just that it was low volume. He just didn't hit all that often. He wasn't 10 yards per target, but you know, given the fact that it was only 45 targets, I would imagine there were a handful of big plays that really inflated that. He had three games with more than 50 yards.

Yikes. You can deal with the low volume. If it was Deshaun Jackson, we've always talked about him as a guy who could win you any given week, but he's inconsistent. Um, you know, rugs didn't really even have the, the big blow up games. He, he had two games with more than 55 yards.

He scored his only two touchdowns in those two games as well. Yeah. But as of now, Nelson Aguilar is a free agent. So, you know, unfortunately he was fourth on the team of targets. You forget about Hunter Renfro.

It's not like Renfro had a great year, but he had a lot more. He was fifth. If you're targets than Josh Jacobs. Oh, my goodness. All right. He had more yards than Josh Jacobs, right? So he was fourth in yards. I'm pretty sure.

But I mean, it's like, OK, I know he had to compete with Aguilar and with Waller. Oh, gosh. Hunter Renfro did a lot better than Henry Ruggs. Ruggs was just bad. How about this uninvolved? How about this group of wide receivers looking at the draft we did right after the season ended in early January? This is late round nine into round 10.

Ruggs was the last pick of round nine. So it goes Gallup, Hardman, Chenault, Ruggs, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams. Gallup, Hardman, Chenault, Ruggs, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams. Gallup, Hardman, Chenault, Ruggs, Curtis Samuel, Mike Williams. Dave, what do you think about Ruggs in that range? I mean, that's probably where he's going to go. That's going to be. And no one's going to draft him as a number one receiver, number two receiver.

He won't be a priority number three receiver. He's going to be. You almost look at him the same way you kind of think about Deshaun Jackson once upon a time. Probably like in those Washington days. Let's see what Deshaun Jackson's rookie season looked like. Could be a good comparison. Hopefully

it wasn't very good for Rent Ruggs' sake. It was really good. It was 62 catches, 912 yards, and two touchdowns on 120 targets? Whoa! Way back in 2008. That was his second highest of his career. on 120 targets. Whoa. Way back in 2008. That was his second highest of his career. Second most targets.

Yeah. My goodness. Yeah, I guess the thing Ruggs has going for him is he didn't turn 22 until after the season. He's very young for a rookie wide receiver. And he's got draft pedigree. So you figure they're going to stick with him and keep giving him opportunities just because they want to make that

number 12 pick look better. And it's too early to say he can't be a very good wide receiver. But when you're talking about a rookie class that produced the way that this one did, and you're talking about a guy who didn't produce, even though he had ample opportunity to, and started 12 of the 13 games he appeared in and was always on the field, it's not a good sign.

And then there are the questions about who the quarterback's going to be, whether they try to trade Derek Carr, which it sounds like they may. We'll see. Okay, I'm going to ask you some more questions. Favorite sophomore sleeper, biggest sophomore bust,

highest dynasty value, maybe other than Justin Jefferson. I might have to, everything is like other than just Justin Jefferson. And we have to put his season in perspectives. Wait until you hear the list of 1400 yard wide receivers, not rookies, just 1400 yard wide receivers in the last 10 seasons.

And he had 1400 on the nose. Um, and he had 1,400 on the nose. And I also want to talk about Brandon Marshall, find out why. We're going to take a quick break and answer these questions when we come back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products

through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. a locate it's not just the law it's a step to keep your team and community safe visit ontario one call.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report welcome back to our sophomore wide receiver show or assessing the rookies you know they're in the middle of their rookies slash sophomores offseason. They're done with their rookie year. Who's your favorite sophomore sleeper, Dave? I've got a lot of names that can make this list. Give me one or two. I'm going to try and go a little bit off the radar

and think of a name that you might be able to get in round 10 plus, and that's Darnell Mooney with the Chicago Bears. Didn't give you a ton. Okay. Only six games last year with double digit PPR points, but he seemed to play better when Chicago's tight ends didn't play well. I think his speed is good. I think he was making some really nice plays. I expect the bears to try and do something at quarterback and improve on

Trubisky slash foals. And I don't know if Alan Robinson's going to be there. So there could be a nice opportunity for Darnell Mooney to carve out a bigger role. Chris, favorite sophomore sleeper. I like Darnell Mooney. I like Gabriel Davis. If the Bills decide to move on from either Cole Beasley or John Brown, John Brown seems more likely.

But I will go with Denzel Mims, who definitely did not have a big rookie season, but wasn't that much less productive than Henry Ruggs. He only played nine games, and really, I think the last three, he was dealing with some family issues. He left the team in week 14 and had a much reduced role after that. But in the six weeks that he played after coming back from his hamstring injury and before that, he was on an 864-yard pace on a 96-target pace. So he was pretty efficient. He was making plays down the field. And obviously, this was within the context of a probably historically bad Jets offense. I haven't quite looked where they compare to the rest of the league,

but it sure felt like some historic levels of futility. So I think Denzel Mims has a chance to be the number one option in New York and what should be a better offense. I think, you know, 110, 120 targets is within the realm of possibility if Jameson Crowder leaves and, you know, he could be pretty good. So I'll go with Denzel Mims yeah the Jets were the lowest scoring team 243 points the Giants were second 280 points I will I will take a look and see the last time a team scored fewer than 243 points it's going to take a while so

you guys uh talk amongst yourself biggest sophomore bust who's going to be the biggest sophomore bust um i mean justin jefferson has the the biggest risk i guess if we're drafting him as a top seven wide receiver if he's a top you know 18 guy that that would probably hurt but i think i would go with brandon iuk i think there is an extremely high amount of hype for him, and I get why. I really like him. I think he's an incredibly talented wide receiver, and in the right situation,

I think he could be a number one fantasy wide receiver. But he played six games with George Kittle active. He was on a 91 target pace. I think in the eight games that he played with Debo Samuel active, it was something like a 93 or 95 yard target pace. Yes, he's a rookie. And so maybe the target share increases, but there were only two or three games with both of them, I think. And so we haven't really seen this offense with Jimmy Garoppolo, with Debo Samuel, with George Kittle, and with Brandon Ayuk. My assumption is it's not going to be a lot of volume overall. And I don't know if Brandon Ayuk is going to be the number one option,

but even if he is, it's going to be a relatively small sample. So he's going to have to be extremely efficient to justify what I would imagine is going to be a top 24 wide receiver ADP. Okay, Iuke, there were four games where all three players, Iuke, Debo, and Kittle played. In those four games, Iuke had 21 targets. Samuel had 22 targets. Kittle had 40 targets. And Iuke had only one good game.

He had 115 yards against the Patriots. And otherwise, he was bad. But you can't judge rookie-wide receivers too harshly. That was early in his career, obviously. But, you know, 21 targets for him, 22 for Debo, and 40 for Kittle. That's pretty interesting. Right, I kind of want to know who the big dog is. It probably should be that way.

Well, I don't know, because Iuke had a tremendous rookie season. So did Debo. Not nearly as good as Ayuk. Just as a receiver. So he had 997... He was on pace for 997 yards in 16 games.

Debo had 802 receiving yards in 15 games. He was on pace for 855. But that was with 10 yards per target. He added 160 rushing yards. He had three rushing touchdowns. I think you have to keep all of that stuff in mind just in terms of his ability to make plays.

I don't think there are a lot of offenses that are at their best when the tight end is the most targeted player. Oh, you mean like Kansas City? Like I said, I said there are not a lot of offenses that are like...

There are very few. And I think, ideally, you want your wide receiver to be your best receiver. And I think it would really require Deebo Samuel taking a big step back

and not being all that fantasy relevant. But if Iyuk develops... Iyuk is a first-round pick. You know, taking a big step back and not being all that fantasy relevant but if iuk develops i was a first round pick um you know if he develops into a stud receiver then you know then he could be not tyree kill you know it could be tyree kill and and kelsey that's where i was gonna go hopefully not i'm not saying he's gonna put up tyree kill numbers but no but that's like i think that ceiling is there but i think like, I think that ceiling is

there, but I think there's a lot that needs to change in San Francisco for us to get there. And it needs to be involved. Debo taking a step back, or maybe he just doesn't stay on the field that much. It involves the quarterback playing in this case, Garoppolo better than he's ever played. If it's somebody else, it's better than Garoppolo's ever played. And it might come down to a change in offensive philosophy, which I doubt Kyle Shanahan's got in him because he is a master at running the football. He's got a good offensive line

that can make that happen. Dave, let me give you a stat real quick, though, on that subject. We've talked a lot about IU's floor. I think the narrow ceiling that we're talking about is he's the Tyreek Hill to George Kittle's Travis Kelsey. And is there a chance the 49ers saw that in him when they reviewed the 2020 film

and they go, all right, we got to find more ways to get IU the football. Yeah. Because that would be a conclusion that I would come to. I don't think IU got lucky. No, I think he's really good. I think we all agree on that. He's really good. It's just the opportunity might not be great.

But keep this in mind. Where have they ranked four seasons under Kyle Shanahan? Where have they ranked in rush attempts per game? 22nd, 11th, 2nd, and 14th. So they've only been a really run heavy team once. And where have they ranked in terms of scoring defense

in those four seasons? 25th, 28th, 8th, and 17th. They've only had one good year as a defense. Other than that, they were average last year, but really weren't that good, right? And they were really bad the first two years under Shanahan. But in that one good year, that was their Super than that, they were average last year, but really weren't that good, right? And they were really bad the first two years

under Shanahan. But in that one good year, that was their Super Bowl year, they were second in the NFL in rush attempts. So they got so injured on defense. They come back healthy.

They got the pieces to have a much better defense. You have to keep that in mind because we are now seeing when they have a great defense, Kyle Shanahan, he wants to run the ball no matter what.

The better their defense, it seems like the less they're going to pass. One thing I would add, Dave mentioned the three ways that IU could take that step forward. I think the quarterback is an interesting one because we know that the 49ers were going after Tom Brady last offseason. Jimmy Garoppolo, I think they can get out of that with one million in dead money or something. Really low number in 2021. I think you're right um and so I think they're a prime spot for an upgrade and if they could get to Sean Watson I don't know if they have the the trade

parts for it but if they could get an upgrade at quarterback one thing about this offense that we've seen is when you know uh the backup quarterbacks have come in for Jimmy Garoppolo, the team's yards per attempt generally doesn't move that much. What happens is they turn the ball over, they score fewer touchdowns, but they remain similarly efficient because that's what Kyle Shanahan's offense has been really good at in the passing game has been generating a lot of yak. They've been consistently, I think, the leader in team yak over the last couple of seasons with a better quarterback then you get more yards before the catch in addition to the the yak that they can scheme up and they've gone after guys like

kiddo samuel iuk who can make a lot of plays after the catch that's where this offense i think could take the step forward with a better, could be even more efficient. You could be looking at IU getting 110 targets, but getting 1,200 yards as a result of it. They would eat about $3 million on the cap if they jettisoned Garoppolo, either via trade or just straight-up release. Interesting. It's interesting. It's an interesting situation to watch.

The more accurate of a quarterback they get in San Fran, the better it would be for everybody there, obviously. But for Iuke, especially when you're talking about that, yeah, he needs that for sure. All right. Who's got the highest dynasty value other than Justin Jefferson or is it Justin Jefferson? We start with that. And then I guess give me your top two Top two dynasty wide receivers in this class. We have a dynasty draft this week. I would imagine that Justin Jefferson will be the first rookie receiver off the board. I bet Lamb goes second. And then I'm not sure who goes third. I still think that you could make the case for Judy. Maybe he becomes a value if he's not third and it's Higgins or Claypool at third, fourth. And Judy would probably

jump ahead of Iuke at five. I think that would be my top five. Heath has CeeDee Lamb as his number two dynasty sophomore. He's 15th overall. Tee Higgins is third at 17th overall in his dynasty rankings on CBSSports.com.

Just to tell you why you really need to pay attention to this group i mean we outlined it a lot year two is a big year for wide receivers they come out of nowhere sometimes um they you know dj charke michael gallup didn't do much as rookies courtland sutton i believe right and he was great in his second year. And then the ones that get 900 yards, we've sort of used that as a benchmark. And now let me, let me just get the updated numbers. Cause we had three rookies last year who had three rookies in 2019,

who got to 900 yards. They were AJ Brown, DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin. Okay. They were pretty good. McLaurin was a little unlucky, but the three of them were great. Prior to that, there had been 18 wide receivers since 2000

that got to 900 yards as rookies. And only four of them, Calvin Benjamin, Michael Clayton, Eddie Royal, Mike Williams of Tampa Bay, only four of them didn't have good careers. The other ones are Juju. I guess jury's kind of out there, but Juju, A.J. Green, Colston,

Dwayne Bowe, Watkins. A little disappointing. Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Deshaun Jackson, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Anquan Bolden, Keenan Allen. These are 900-yard rookie-wide receivers. 900.

Justin Jefferson got to 1,400. But how many got to 900 last year? Three of them did. It was T. Higgins, C.D. Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. So they are in good company and in position to have good second seasons. And as far as Justin Jefferson goes, this is kind of cool.

In the last 10 seasons, there have been 40 instances of a wide receiver getting 1,400 yards. Jefferson was the only rookie. So of the 39 other instances, aside from Jefferson, only twice did a team throw fewer than Minnesota did. So he did that on a team that threw 516 passes.

It's really hard to do what he did. It was incredible. It does make you a little bit nervous because they're not going to throw the ball. Their defense sucked last year, and they only threw 516 times. But down the stretch, they were throwing a lot. And as I was looking at how rare it is to be on an offense like this and get to 1, and one, as I was looking at, you know, how rare it is to be on an offense like this

and get to 1400 yards, look at Brandon Marshall in 2012. I know this is a little off subject, but Chicago was horrible. They threw for three offensively. They threw for 3,300 yards, 3,300 yards. Brandon Marshall had 1500 of them, 1,508. The next best receiver on the team was Earl Bennett. He had 375 yards.

That's amazing. Yeah, so Brandon Marshall's 2012 season is incredibly underrated. He had like, what, 45% or so of the team's receiving yards? I don't know if that's my bad. Amazing. And then, yeah, I won't go through the whole list of 1,400-yard receivers, but

I think the worst one in the last 10 seasons to get 1,400 yards, Emmanuel Sanders, Juju Smith-Schuster. And they did those in much different contexts. They did those in the offenses that had a lot more overall

yardage and volume. Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Josh Gordon is an exception. But Alshon Jeffrey, maybe he's the worst. But it's really hard not to be a great wide receiver. You can't do what Justin Jefferson did and be fluky. That's my point. He is an elite company. I kind of think one of the comps for Jefferson would be AJ Brown as a rookie obviously Jefferson was a lot more productive but it's similar in that it was like outlier efficiency that we look at and say well AJ Brown's not gonna have 12.5 yards

per target again he's not gonna score you know one target touchdown every 10 targets and all of that was pretty much true in year two he did actually score one touchdown every 10 targets. And all of that was pretty much true in year two. He did actually score one touchdown every 10 targets. But the fact that he did that as a rookie, as a 22-year-old, bodes really, really well. And this is A.J. Brown, who was 22. Justin Jefferson was 21 in his rookie season. And obviously, A.J. Brown went out year two.

He wasn't as efficient, but he was an elite number one wide receiver for the titans and a borderline fantasy number one wide receiver um actually probably a pretty solid fantasy but jefferson had uh like 40 more targets yeah yeah that's what i'm saying jefferson had the elite efficiency on a higher volume all right just the fact that he was able to do that even though we should expect some volume or efficiency regression, Justin Jefferson should still be really, really good. And I think it's an open question how much the Vikings are going to throw next year. I think they're another team who could move on from their starting quarterback.

There's a lot of that going around in the NFL right now. Niners might be interested in him. Yeah, that'd be interesting. If he shook out. Yeah, that'd be interesting. If he shook out. Yeah, that'd be interesting. I don't know. I don't know. I guess he's better than Jimmy Garoppolo, probably.

I think he is. And I think the coach would say that he's more comfortable with cousins than Garoppolo at this point. But I think it also comes down to what does it take to get cousins away from the Vikings? I think the Vikings are probably okay with keeping cousins given. I think they're probably okay either way. I think that's kind of just okay either.

And that just kind of describes how they feel about Kirk Cousins. Yeah. But I don't think, I don't, I don't know if they're one of those teams that's trying desperately to get to Sean Watson. Maybe fell in their lap. Sure.

Of course they would. Every team would, but I don't, I don't believe that they're trying to make a, you know, a big stride to try and get him like Carolina might be trying to do. Carolina's freed up $26 million in cap space in the last week, by the way. I'll do the news and notes tomorrow since I knew.

Tomorrow is sophomore tight ends. I don't think it's going to be as extensive as sophomore wide receivers. We'll get deep into Cole Comet. Any other names you want to talk about? Denzel Mims, as we've discussed. But K.J. Hamler, Van Jefferson, Lynn Bowden, Brian Edwards, Devin Duvernay, Antonio Ganey-Golden,

Gabriel Davis, we talked about a little bit. Tyler Johnson, Colin Johnson, Joe Reed, Quintez Cephas, Isaiah Coulter, Donovan Peoples-Jones actually had a better year than most of the guys we've said. John Hightower and Quez Watkins for Philadelphia.

And then Tyron Johnson, I believe that was technically his rookie year. He's 25 for the Chargers. He had bounced around some practice squads. This was his first action in the NFL. He was okay. I don't know. Anyone who could come out of nowhere, I guess,

probably not going to be. I don't know how many of these guys are going to be drafted maybe Van Jefferson right I mean the Lions are going to lose Marvin Jones there's that news that came out that he's not expected to stay and Galladay could be tagged and traded we know the Lions are pretty much tanking in 2021

Cephas could end up getting a lot of playing time and become an interesting I think he's absolutely worth taking with a late pick just in case just to see what happens because he might have some nice opportunities in detroit yeah that was the name that jumped out of me in that group as well uh the other one would probably be um gabriel davis who we've mentioned a few times he was super efficient big receiver you know made a lot of big plays in that offense.

And obviously, we know that offense can sustain three fantasy-relevant wide receivers because they don't use their tight ends or their running backs very much. So if he gets an opportunity and gets into a 100-target role, he'll definitely be one of my favorite sleepers for 2021. And we really didn't talk a lot about Michael Pittman on the episode. Oh, you're right. I'm sorry about that. Yeah, he's got a chance to be a number one receiver in Indianapolis. We know that Carson Wentz is there now, and

Wentz has leaned on bigger outside receivers over the course of his career, and that's exactly what he is. And if T.Y. Hilton moves on, then there's a real opportunity for Pittman to be one of those guys that gets a rocket ship strapped to him and up he goes into the top five among the sophomore wide receivers.

Yeah, and there was a stretch where it looked like he was emerging as the number one wide receiver around midseason. Yeah, we saw that big playability, too, that breakaway long touchdown catch and run. Pittman's the kind of guy that could come at it that could... He's not going to come out of nowhere. He's going to get drafted. But he could have a huge season. It just shouldn't shock you.

That's just what these guys do and good pedigree. You would like to see them not add much because they're going to run the ball. They were 10th in rush attempts, 20th in pass attempts. But... Had 101 scrimmage yards in the playoff game. 90 receiving yards and an 11-yard run, too. Yep, yep.

All right, all right, all right. Well, we didn't really talk that much about Jalen Rager either. So give me... He was one of my favorites last year. I loved him, but an early injury in training camp combined with Wentz's shortcomings kind of harpooned his rookie year. One of the things that I'm going to have to study about Jalen Hurts

is just how frequently he went to the deep ball. Because I think that's kind of something that he does when he's moving out of the pocket, trying to avoid a sack, is just chuck it downfield. And that could help Rager. I think Rager and Hurts had some good plays together. Can't quantify it right now. But I think that he's got potential.

It really does come down to what Philly does to improve their receiving core this offseason. I think Rager had a hamstring injury in camp. Then he had the shoulder injury right before week one. Then I think he had the thumb injury later on. So it was really a snakebitten rookie season for sure. And you could say, well, maybe that makes him injury prone. We'll see whether that's the case.

But it was awfully hard for him to get going either way. He got hurt in week 17, played just 28% of the snaps. The three previous games that he played with Jalen Hurts, 19 targets, not bad. It's 101 target. He's another great sleeper. A lot of passes, though, by Hurts. As we know, the Eagles threw the ball a lot.

But yeah, right. He's a sleeper. Exciting class. They did some really, really good things. And that bodes well as maybe they can kind of, you know, run things at wide receiver in the coming years and starts and ends with those. Kind of like the 2014 class did for a while.

All righty, everybody. Thanks so much for listening. Sophomore tight ends tomorrow. Yeah. Tune in. I'm going to have to think about another topic for the show. How about started fantasy points for quarterbacks? We can talk about that debacle.

We will talk to you then for Chris Towers and David Richard. I'm Adam A. We'll see you later.