Fantasy Football Today - Lowest Floors in Rounds 1-3 (05/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 24, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Which early round picks have the most downside? There is plenty to debate on this episode, but first we have a lot of news and notes including Austin Ekeler's new contract (2:10), Brock Purdy's timeline (6:15), what the Patriots might do on third downs (8:55) and more ... Dave thinks that one of last season's elite running backs has a low floor, while Heath vehemently disagrees (14:30)! Heath thinks that a trendy breakout pick has a low floor, while Adam doesn't really see it that way (21:50). Meanwhile, we all agree that a potentially elite second year RB has plenty of downside, but also extremely enticing upside (26:25) ... Let's talk about some wide receivers with low floors! We've got a physical freak who has had a confusing career (31:35), a great player with plenty of target competition (38:10) and a former Top 5 Fantasy WR who has a lot to prove (43:45) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. On Monday, we talked about mid-round picks with the highest ceilings. Today, we'll talk about early round picks, rounds one through three. These players who have the lowest floors, most bust potential, perhaps, in these early rounds. I don't know if it's necessarily buyer beware, but we'll talk about their floors and hopefully have some good debates. I'm Adam Azer with Dave Richard. Dave, hello. What did you think of my three players, Adam? Your three, I'm getting them confused because I,

by the way, Dave and Heath don't know each other's three players. I'm going to give them hints. Okay, I don't really agree with that one. I do agree with that one, and I'm sort of on the fence with that one, so perfect. Oh, okay. A little debate, a little agreement, a little discussion. Did you also pick three players? No, no. Heath, your three players agree, agree, disagree. All right. And you know what, Heath, I have a question for you before we even get going.

Yes, yes. Where would you recommend I buy ping pong balls? Because I am all in on what you talked about on the Dynasty show yesterday. We will have a ping pong ball style draft lottery to determine the rookie draft order. So I need a lot of them. Like Costco? Yeah, I've generally in the past bought them at Walmart. So I think Walmart or Costco or whatever your store like that in your areas, they probably don't have Walmart where you are.

Yeah, it's 20 minutes away. Yeah. All right. I think there are three within five minutes of me. Yeah, different world up here. Okay, so we've got some news and notes, and then we'll get into the players with the low floors. And I actually have a lot of news and notes.

So let's start with Austin Eckler. The Chargers are adding $1.75 million in incentives to Eckler's contract. He will be a free agent next year. Eckler's been a top three running back in both, in all formats. Half, full, non-PPR, two straight seasons. He just turned

28 years old, and he has never had a 20-carry game in his career. Do you have Austin Eckler as a top three running back? Yes. Pretty easy to do it, knowing what his role is and how successful he's been used in that role. And it's kind of easy to double down on it because the Chargers didn't make any moves

at running back this offseason. And look, Adam, you might know't make any moves at running back this offseason. And, look, Adam, you might know, the last time a running back repeated as the number one guy in fantasy points per game, that's a long time ago, right? I would guess McCaffrey

in points per game. Yeah, I would guess. Heath, do you know? We can look it up during the show if you want but I almost wonder if it's LaDainian well in terms of I think it's a much it's a different question in terms of total points versus points per game I'm pretty sure in points per game Adam

is right it's McCaffrey but total points it might be a little bit different and Eckler is number one in my projections but I'm not confident with him as a top three running back in the rankings just because 28's scary for running backs. And I think we have to at least be open to the possibility.

We're talking about how much better Kellen Moore's going to be for Justin Herbert because Justin Herbert's going to throw the ball down the field more. Kellen Moore's been about a 17% running back target share guy as a coordinator. Eckler's been well over 20%, and they just drafted Quinton Johnston

to go with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. I think there's a possibility that Austin Eckler catches fewer passes than he has the past couple years. Do you have the numbers in front of you from last year? I don't. I have a lot of numbers on this, if you'd like. All right, because I would imagine that they could come down a tad, a bit, a wee bit,

but not so bad that it makes Eckler just a mind-blowingly bad bet. Oh, well, it could come down because, first of all, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen were barely healthy, and Eckler averaged only four and a half targets per game in the last five games of the season when both Allen and Williams were on the field the year before that, he had about 99, I think he had 94 targets in 16 games and both Allen and Williams played basically full seasons in 2021. So that's about a hundred target pace.

It's about a hundred target pace as opposed to, it was about 117 targets. I think he had last year in 17 games. I will say this, Heath. Each of the last two years in Dallas, Pollard and Zeke combined for 111 targets. No. So, you know, there's been four seasons of Kellen Moore as an offensive coordinator. Two seasons they've been outside the top 20 in running back targets, and two seasons

they've been either 9th or 13th in running back targets. The Chargers are usually top 3 in that. I was going to say, I think we should expect something closer to average than what the Chargers have been. Ooh, average? I'll say top 10. Closer to average than what the Chargers have been, for sure.

Closer to 15 than 3. Closer to average than what the Chargers have been, for sure. Closer to 15 than three. Closer to average than what the Chargers have been. All right, so closer to 16 than three, you're saying? Exactly. I don't know. I mean, would you have Austin Eckler? No, not closer to 16 than three. Closer to average than what the Chargers have been.

Have been over what period of time? Closer to 16 than three is. Not top three. Right. No, not top three. Okay. Top 10, top eight. Five would be closer to average than three is not top three, right? No, not top three. Okay. Top 10, top eight,

five would be closer to average than three is correct. From what you're saying. Oh, Oh, he's still going to get a lot of targets. Look at any other running back and say, well, this guy might get more targets than Eckler.

No, McCaffrey, Afri, maybe. And I haven't ranked ahead of Eckler. But other than that, he's going to catch a lot of passes. He's going to get a lot of yards. He's going to score a lot of touchdowns.

He's going to do this when he scores. All right, well, listen, if you want to talk about McCaffrey, let's talk about our next news item here. The 49ers are optimistic that Brock Purdy will be ready for week one as he recovers from a torn UCL that did not require Tommy John surgery. So if you want the... By the way, he performed as a top seven quarterback. If you look at his per-game averages

in the last six games of the regular season, five of those were starts. The first of that six-game stretch, Garoppolo left early and Purdy played almost an entire game. He performed like a top seven quarterback. He threw a touchdown in seven straight games,

including the playoffs. I'm sorry, he threw two or more touchdowns in seven straight games. That is longer than any streak Jimmy Garoppolo has had in his career. Garoppolo's longest streak was four, also set earlier in 2022, but that's just not something you see from 49ers quarterbacks very

often Purdy was a touchdown uh kind of a touchdown machine considering his little pass attempts but um all right so Heath your reaction to that news item that the 49ers are optimistic about Purdy being ready for week one I think Purdy is is better for everyone on the 49ers than Trey Lance so it's a good thing when I was originally at the beginning of the offseason projecting the 49ers to start Trey Lance for 17 games Christian McCaffrey was not a top five running back he is now my number one running back do you want to know the receiving splits in the four games that Purdy played with Debo, McCaffrey, Kittle, and Ayuk. Yeah, yeah, I'd love to know that.

Are you giving me the percentage of targets? Because then I can compare that to what I have projected for target share this year. I don't have the share. I would just give you the targets. I think I can come up with the share. I think it was 117 pass attempts. It was 116 pass attempts. So 29 targets for Debo.

23 for Ayuk. 23 for McCaffrey. 16 for Kittle. Kittle was the most concerning by far. I currently have target share projection 22 for Debo, 21 for Ayuk, 21 for McCaffrey, 17 for Kittle.

Hold on. What's the span that you're talking about? It is weeks 13, 18, wild card and division. Just those four? Those are the only four games that Brock Purdy was the quarterback where he had all four of those weapons. I see.

No, I don't have that. Yeah. Except there was week 14, but Debo left very early, so I did not count that Azerstat. All right, next item. Brees Hall not participating in OTAs, not a huge surprise. Former Patriots running back James White says that he thinks it would help Ramondre Stevenson

if the Patriots can find a third down back. And he mentioned Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong, and James Robinson. I think that there was also, like, we talked about this yesterday. We did. Their former running back coach was saying the same thing. Why are these people saying this? I did a little bit of research, and there have been, I believe, eight running backs in the last 20 years who have had at least 80 targets

and averaged less than five yards per target. Ramondre Stevenson is one of those. Every single one of the guys who had happened before lost at least 12 targets from the year before. About half of them lost 25 to 50 targets from the year before. This is terrific. Good research. Thank you. I've never bought into the idea of Ramondre Stevenson being a three-down back. However, Stephen A., terrible, he had 69 catches last year. Only 12 of them came on third down. 57 of Stevenson's 69 catches were on first and second down. First and second down running back target rate is something that can

certainly fluctuate from geez. Oh yeah. I know. Sorry. Didn't do it on purpose. Fluctuate from year to year. So just, but that is something to keep in mind.

He threw, he caught a lot of passes and barely any of them were on third down. And barely any of them went for very many yards, right? It doesn't really matter if he's the first and second down guy and mac jones keeps throwing to him then you know like because damian harris was uh you're lucky if you got two catches right 18 catches in a full season something like that uh what do you think stevenson is if if he loses his third down roll what do you think steven is? 40? Yeah.

And also, if he's used the way he's been used for most of the past five years, maybe Juju takes some of those targets. Stefan Diggs, not at OTAs. Charlotte Carroll of the Athletic thinks that Matt Breida is the safe number two option behind Saquon Barkley. But that's not really

a fantasy football handcuff conversation. That's probably no if they're both side Brita would be as good well no but I don't know that Brita would get the job if Barkley got hurt who would you draft as a handcuff Brita or Eric Gray who they've drafted in the fifth round or nobody I wouldn't it's a nobody Eric Gray would be my preference over Brita a new rule in the NFL, any fair catch on a kickoff now comes out to the 25-yard line. So it used to have to be in the end zone.

Now you can fair catch it anywhere, 10-yard line, five-yard line, whatever. At what point do we just, like baseball, you don't have to throw the four balls. You can just say, take the ball to 25. Right. I think it's going to happen not just in our lifetime, but in the next two years.

Yeah. Bye-bye kickoff. Taking the foot out of football, Adam. Well, you know what? It's one out of five. When we get rid of the other four times where we kick the ball, it'll be a much better sport. Then it'll just be called ball. Throw ball. Seattle cornerback Tariq Woolen is going to be out until training camp after knee surgery. He was quite a find for them last

year. Great draft pick. Carolina tight end Hayden Hurst was not at OTAs due to hernia surgery. Rashad Bateman was at OTAs. He's recovering from a Lisfranc surgery. We had a really good conversation about Bateman on the Dynasty pod on

Tuesday with Alfredo Brown. Highly recommend checking that out if you're looking for somebody with a little bit of post-type sleeper potential. Darnell Mooney, not 100% yet as he recovers from an ankle injury. How about any post-type sleeper potential for Darnell Mooney? I did see Justin Fields said today that Chase Claypool has improved a lot I've read that Justin Fields has improved a lot

oh yeah well that's why I think Mooney has some sleeper appeal because it's not like if if Fields is really getting that much better it's not like only one guy can be fantasy relevant obviously DJ Moore but if you can get if you can get Mooney after round 10 or something,

I don't think that's the worst fire. I think he'll be a better best ball play than a knowing wind to store them. Yeah. Right. What would he be to your team? A bi-week replacement wide receiver? Yeah.

Eh, I think he can do better than that. And since I already accidentally said the F word, I might as well read what Alan Lazard said yesterday. He said he got hit in the gonads. The G word. Yeah. The G word. Uh,

they don't curse on fantasy baseball today. A much more wholesome podcast. Check out fantasy baseball today. I would like to tell you that I am three and five in a league, but I've scored the most points. So I think that's pretty good. Yeah. No, not impressed.

There is a baseball league that I was a part of for many years and it didn't happen. Of course, one year, um, because of the, I believe it was because of the pandemic or some reason. Um, and I thought it was just over. I didn't realize we were still doing it. I got an email at the end of last year. Um, apparently I was in the league auto drafted and didn't realize we were still doing it. I got an email at the end of last year. Apparently I was in the league, auto-drafted, and didn't set my lineup all year. Then I got a notification this year that they had set a time for the draft.

How did you do last year? I don't know. I didn't go. I've not been to the league website in two years. Well, Heath's probably not going to listen to Fantasy Baseball today, but you should. It's a great podcast. It really is a great podcast, award-winning podcast.

Please check it out anywhere you listen, Fantasy Baseball. Funniest guy at CBS. Who? Scott? Oh, Scott's very funny. Oh, by far. Yeah. Very entertaining.

Okay, let's talk about lowest floors in round one through three. The first guy comes from Dave. Heath, you have to guess who he is. Okay. Go ahead. Wait, can I get comes from Dave. Heath, you have to guess who he is. Okay. Wait, can I get the list up first before you ask me to guess? I guess so. I think you guys

are going to get most of these. Okay. Go ahead. He is a running back who does have a top five finish in his career. Okay. He scored 30 or more fantasy points in three straight games last season with 143 or more rushing yards and at least one touchdown in all three games. Josh Jacobs?

Josh Jacobs. He scored 19 or more fantasy points in nine games in 2022. Did that 12 times in his first three seasons combined. Josh, this one we have to start with because Josh Jacobs is— Oh, it makes me so angry. Yeah, I know. It makes me so freaking angry. Yes.

It makes me so angry. Josh Jacobs has one of the lowest floors, maybe among the round one. I can't imagine Dave thinks he has a lower floor than a guy that's going late round three, but considering the capital you have to pay, I thought this was a really interesting pick. So Dave, why did you decide to make Heath angry today? I mean, I can't wait to hear why Heath is so angry about Jacobs, but I'm just making the argument for the lowest floor. This is not me saying that Josh Jacobs is going to be a bust yet. We know that last year was his first year averaging more than like 14.3 PPR points per game. He surged in what was a contract here.

50 plus catches each of his past two years. He deserves credit for that. That's with two different coaching staffs, by the way, that he was able to accumulate that type of catches. But what worries me first and foremost about Jacobs is that he's coming off of the year with 393 touches, career high by almost 100 touches. And this is a dude who's been on the shelf for a few games every year. He just wasn't last year. Man, did they work him last year. He had nine games with at least 20 attempts, 15 total games in his career with at least 20 attempts in the three seasons prior. So again, got worked to the max in 2022.

So I'm just asking if we're asking too much of him. Asking twice like that? Sorry, I'm a bum. Are we asking too much of him to replicate everything that he did last year, including the same workload, including the same efficiency, including the same touchdowns? He had 12 rushing touchdowns. And I think the schedule is going to be a little bit harder for the Raiders too.

They're taking on the AFC East. They're taking on the NFC North. Not that the NFC North is loaded with dominant run defenses by any stretch, but the AFC East does have some competitive ones. And I think some of the teams in the AFC West got a little bit stronger versus the run as well. So I'm looking at this list and that you, Adam,

you made reference to, he has the lowest floor, maybe of the first round guys on this list that you sent us. He's 26th. Oh my God. Really? He is an early third round pick. He's worth it. He is going behind Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb in PPI I agree with Pollard he's younger than Tony Pollard he's shown that he can handle

a big workload like they the Cowboys still might bring Ezekiel Elliott back I just like we've got we finally have a 25 year old running back who gets to stay in the exact same situation that he was in last year that has no added competition added to him same coach like the only thing that changed was going from Derek Carter Jimmy Garoppolo I don't think that affects Josh Jacobs at all yeah I just don't like this seems like one of the safest picks. I'd much more worried about Austin Eckler at 28 years old breaking down or Derek Henry at 29 after 4 million touches breaking down than I am Josh Jacobs after one year of big usage when he's at the beginning of the prime of his career. But I think the big usage led to the big fantasy points. I would agree with that. It really comes down to are the Raiders going to go all in on him

again, and is he going to be just as efficient as he was last year? He doesn't have to be. He's being drafted in round three. He could be 80% as efficient. I think his floor is still going to be close to 15 PPR points per game. I just have a hard time wrapping my head around Josh Jacobs

being a third round pick. I don't know what to say about head around Josh Jacobs being a third-round pick. I just don't know what to say about that. No, he's a round-two pick for me. I don't feel like it's going to end up there, but he's a round-two pick early round two for you? Middle late. He is my number two running back. Yeah, I know that.

Okay. Well, yeah, it's interesting for him to be your number two running back and for his I know that. Okay. Well, it's... Yeah, it's interesting. For him to be your number two running back and for his ADP to be in round three, just we'll see... We'll see if the rest of the world, you know,

starts to buy in a little bit more now that the draft has passed. They haven't added anyone. I think what it is is that nobody expects him to play as well as he did. That wasn't just the touches last year. He also just was great, you know, and never done that before.

He's been a featured guy for pretty much every year. I mean, there was a little stretch where he was competing with Kenyon Drake, but he's never been a guy that's really split, has he? Unless I'm forgetting someone. But he's just never done what he did last year. Okay. No, he hasn't. A quick update for you on the

who was the last running back to repeat as RB1 per game in PPR. So it was McCaffrey, but in 2020, McCaffrey played three games. So if we eliminate that, we have to go back to 2017 and 2018. Can you name the running back who repeated as RB1 points per game?

What year? 2017, 2018. An absolute fantasy legend that I feel has been forgotten in the course of three years, basically. Todd Gurley. Remember him? Yeah, I do. Yeah, I think we've got maybe a couple of guys about to go the same way that he did. Maybe. Well, if we find out from their trainers that they have arthritis, then we will know that for sure, but we don't know that yet. All right,

we'll take a quick break here. Five more names to talk about. Low floors in rounds one through three. We'll be right back. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same and whatever the heck red light therapy is, it's definitely not that.

Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smart water is a simple one. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Okay, let's go to one of Heath's guys here.

So Dave, you have to guess. One of Heath's players drafted around... I'm winning 1-0, right? What'd you say? I'm winning 1-0. You mean you've guessed correctly? Okay. Yes, congratulations.

Thanks. So this player, since entering the NFL, he has the third highest yards per carry among qualified running backs. He shared a backfield with a guy who scored 12 rushing touchdowns and is no longer on the team. 12 rushing touchdowns and no longer on the team. And he has a 30-yard catch in three straight seasons, at least one catch of 30 yards, which is really good.

Austin Eckler has only one season in his last three with a catch of 30 yards or more. Ramondre Stevenson had like 80 catches last year, and none of them went for more than 22, I don't think. Yeah, that was a stat, by the way, on Stevenson. In his rookie year, his longest run was 21 yards, which is why I didn't want him, and he got a lot better at that. What?

It wasn't Ramondre Stevenson, though. Okay. It wasn't Ramondre Stevenson, though. Okay. It wasn't Ramondre Stevenson. So who is this player? I think I know who it is. Go. Tony Pollard. Yes. Tony Pollard, one of the lowest floors, according to Heath.

What do you think, Dave? I can see it if the Cowboys follow through and add another running back. For now, I have a hard time seeing it because I think he's going to see more work than he did last year with the added role of short yardage goal line guy, which went to Ezekiel Elliott, 12 touchdowns last year. And if that's the case, then he could end up being 20 PPR points per game if he gets all that work. And I would bet on that if that's the case with

a first round pick, I would point out that last year, two games without Zeke, 27.8 PPR points per game in those one game without Zeke. This is all the way back in 2020. You might not care about it. 30 PPR points. If he's the main dude in Dallas and that offense, I don't know if he's going to get 27 PPR points per game. That's McCaffrey esque, but I think he can get to 20. IPR points per game. That's McCaffrey-esque. But I think he can get to 20. I really do. I think he'd be worth a first-round pick.

But it's on the caveat, asterisk away on this one, that there is nobody taking that short yardage goal line role away from him. Yes, this is Tony Pollard we're talking about. And I just wanted to say to you guys real quick that, and to the audience, because I don't think I did a good enough job communicating this on Monday show when I was talking about high ceilings with Jamie, um,

there are guys on this list like Deandre Hopkins who could, you know, on Monday who could have extremely high ceilings and low floors. So I'm not necessarily making this a ranking show. I want to focus on the floors today and Heath, you know, how low, like how low is that floor for Tony Pollard? I mean, a ranking show. I want to focus on the floors today. Heath, how low is that floor for Tony Pollard? I think the floor is that he has 230

touches like he did last year, but he scores touchdowns like he did the first three years of his career. The first three years of his career, he had two receiving touchdowns on 106 targets. Last year, he had three on 55. The first three years of his career, he had two receiving touchdowns on 106 targets. Last year, he had three on 55. The first three years of his career, he had eight rushing touchdowns on over 300

carries. Last year, he had nine on 193 carries. So what's the worst case scenario? RB blank for Pollard? We're assuming health for all these guys. Well, I'll tell you how I did it later. 20?

Okay. RB20. Which is how many PPR points per game, you think? Oh, well, he was at 15.6 last year. He was? Yep. 13, 14? Okay.

I don't think you're off on that. I think he could end up there and that would suck for a first round pick. And for the record, that's a lower floor than Josh Jacobs. I don't see that floor. What scenario is he RB 20? They've resigned. His volume doesn't go up because

they think he's, and they said this at the beginning of last year, Tom Spencer, I believe it was like week three or week four, he was on and said that the Cowboys don't want to give Pollard more work in the running game when they're using him as a receiver. They talked as if they really didn't think he was a three down back. He's 26 years old and he's never had more than 230 touches in a season. I think it's reasonable to think he's not a three down back. I would caution that by saying...

I'm sorry, Heath. I didn't know if you were done or not. I would caution that by saying that that was their thinking in week three of last year. They might have changed their minds after what happened after that. Yeah. Okay.

Next up is another Heath Cummings player with a low floor. Dave, this player, he scored 13.2 or more PPR fantasy points in each of his last six games. You could say he ended his season on a tear. He had more than two catches in only two games all season, though. And his team drafted a running back on day three. Would you like me to repeat those

clues? I think I got it. Those were good clues. Thank you. What do you got? Is it Brees Hall? It is. He ended his season on a tear. Yeah, the tear kind of gave it away. There it is. All right, Dave.

Well, Heath, you first. So this one is a different case. I mean, this is an injury. This is a not healed yet case. I think we should not project injuries, and I think we should not say somebody has a low floor because they might get hurt because everybody might get hurt. But the guy who is currently hurt

and unable to participate in team activities, I talked about this last year. I got a little too excited about guys who were unable to participate in team activities. I talked about this last year. I got a little too excited about guys who were unable to play football. So until Brees Hall is a full go at training camp, he has, I think, probably the lowest floor because he might not be ready for the start of the year. Where do you have him ranked? I'm pretty low on him currently. RB17? Um, I'm, I'm pretty low on him. Um, he currently, um, RB 17.

Honestly, that's where we should all have him ranked because of what you said. We don't know for sure that he's going to be ready to go. I know the press clippings are mostly positive about him and I don't think his, his tear is as bad as Javante Williams tear. Right. Agreed. And I think his, his ceiling is like at the top of the Sears tower compared as Javante Williams' tear. Right. Agreed. And I think his ceiling is, like, at the top of the Sears Tower compared to Javante Williams,

who's at the top of, like... I don't know. What's a fair to Midland Tower in the world, Adam? A tower? So you said the Sears Tower? Yeah. Which isn't called the Sears Tower. How about just Sears?

No, it's higher than that. What about the Eiffel Tower? Okay, we'll't called the Sears Tower. How about just Sears? No, it's higher than that. What about the Eiffel Tower? Okay, we'll say the Eiffel Tower. The one in Vegas. I think that one's smaller than the one in Paris. Let's go with the one in Paris. I've been to the one in Paris. It's great views from the top of there.

I bet. So I'm kind of ranking him as if he's going to be okay and maybe misses one or two games. And I don't know if that's necessarily the safest thing to do. The problem is that I don't know which running backs behind him. I'm ready to say right now I'd rather have a head of Brees Hall and it's names like Mixon, Aaron Jones, Najee. These are guys that have good – they've got the chance to have high ceilings too,

but not like Brees Hall. If he's right in that offense, especially the way that it's configured now, massive upgrade at quarterback, upgrade on the offensive line, upgrade at play caller, question mark, I think he could do what Adrian Peterson did, and that's just come back and play not 2,000 yards good but really good maybe around 17 PPR points per game I agree

with Dave's talk about the upside it's just I was just talking about the right right yeah I think both Paul like my first three all three of my guys are really wide range of outcomes guy I didn't take ceiling into account at all. I was just looking at four.

I think the hard part in calculating Brees Hall's floor is what if he's ready for week one? Because you know who was ready for week one? Chris Godwin was ready for week one. Then he got hurt. He did hurt his hamstring. But it still took him weeks to regain his form. He even said it. Chris Godwin said that he wasn't all the way back.

He said that mid-season when I was wondering, what the heck is going on with him? He finally said, I'm not all the way back. And then Dobbins, too. I mean, Dobbins was never all the way back. Because remember, when Dobbins came back the second time, late in the year, he got caught. He had a breakaway potential, like long touchdown run.

He got caught easily. He's like, yeah, I don't have my breakaway speed yet. So Heath, I don't even know how you calculate the floor for Hall because even if he's playing, I don't know how good he's going to be. I don't either. And I think that there's a really good chance, especially with Nathaniel Hackett's history

with running backs, that it's going to be a 1A, 1B situation. And Dave, what do you think about this comment from Equity Loan? Dave returned a steak at the Eiffel Tower. No. I didn't eat at the Eiffel Tower. Well, I mean, I had a snack.

Okay. By the way, I'm looking at the efficiency numbers for Jacobs from last year and comparing it to previous years. His yards per carry was a career high at 4.9. He did have a year before with 4.8, but a lot of the other numbers are not too far off of what he's done in the past.

I think this is a point in favor of Heath that he might if it just comes down to volume and what reason do we have to really expect him to lose a ton of volume next year? It's interesting. I'm glad I looked at this. This might have changed my mind

a little bit on Jacobs. All right, let's go with one of the low floor plays here for Dave. Heath, this player, has averaged more than 62 receiving yards per game in only one of his four seasons.

Okay. But he has been top... I've said this so many times, I'm just going to give it away. He's been top four in end zone targets in all four of his NFL seasons. And he has been at 7.5 and 7.4 yards per target, which is really not great.

Two straight seasons, but his first two years, nine or more yards per target. Got him? I really have no, I really thought I knew who it was. I'm going to go with DK Metcalf. It is DK Metcalf. Everyone's getting it today. Good job.

I was going to suggest that you give him a clue about what that team did in the draft because you did that for me with Brees Hall, and that helped me narrow down that it was Brees Hall. Yeah, I love that stat. Top four in end zone targets every year of his career and only six touchdowns last year but all right Dave this is your case against DK Metcalf this is your floor case for DK Metcalf he has a low floor among the lowest of players drafted in the first three rounds right you're going to need him to come through on those touchdowns if you want him to avoid the floor let's start with the addition in the draft of Jackson Smith and Jigba. Why did they get him?

I've kind of suggested the idea that he's there for short area targets. So I went to see what DK Metcalf did last year on targets outside of the red zone and of air yards 10 or fewer. So these are shorter throws, not in the red zone. They're trying to just move the chains and get the ball downfield. This is the area that I think Smith and Jigba is really going to be relied upon for Seattle. I don't think they're going to use him in the red zone as an end zone target. For an example, they've got DK for that. And I think DK is going to have that job on lock last year, outside of the red zone, Arizona air yards of 10 or fewer yards, 55 catches for 411 yards and no touchdowns.

So not really a lot in the way of breakaway touchdowns. Clearly not a lot in the way of breakaway plays. He didn't even average 10 yards per catch. It was 61% of Metcalf's receptions, 39% of his yards. That kind of made me do a double take because that's all that's a high percentage of catches that he might lose he's not gonna lose all of it but he'll lose a piece of it so we'll lock it because of uh of smith and jigba being there so does that lower his his targets overall yes are these high value targets not really because he didn't do a lot with them last

year. I checked out his touchdowns. He had six last year. Three of them were inside the 10. Obviously, with the end zone targets that he gets every year, that's not a surprise. Two more were in the red zone. One was from 50 yards out. I think that play was a big deep ball from Geno Smith. He only had one of those deep ball plays. Here's the other factor that makes me a little bit nervous in DK, and it's kind of along the same lines as Josh Jacobs, but in reverse. In 2020, he averaged 16.6 PPR fantasy points per game. We thought this is it. He's taking off. Adam, I know that you've been a huge DK guy. I'm sure you thought exactly that. In the two years after, he's been below 14 PPR points per game, 13.9 in 2021, 13.3 in 2022.

And yes, they did throw a little bit more with Geno than they traditionally did with Russ last year, but they just added two more running backs to their draft room. I'm sure they want to get these guys utilized on top of getting Ken Walker going. I am getting a little bit nervous about what that target share will be for DK Metcalf this year. I don't think I disagree with anything Dave said. I think it makes more sense that he would be better next year than he was last year because I think there will be some touchdown regression that helps him out. So I think he's probably in that same range. I didn't go through the exercise of saying points per game, what's everyone's floor. I think we's probably in that same range. I don't, I didn't go through the exercise of saying like points per game.

What's everyone's floor. I think we've seen pretty close to DK's floor the last two years. I think it's right around 13 to 14 fantasy points per game, which seems like where we're settling on a lot of these guys that we're discussing. So, um, there's a couple other wide receivers and one that I'm getting ready to make the argument for that I think has a lower floor than Metcalf, but I think he's definitely in the conversation. I don't really

want to take him in round three. He just feels like a round four player to me. I've got him in five. I would take all of those top three quarterbacks ahead of him. I know ADP certainly would as well. I assume you guys would too? Yeah.

I've got him at 38, so round four. What about Burrow and Fields? No. I am, I am there. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage.

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Heath, in the last two seasons, this wide receiver has finished top five and outside the top 30 in PPR. He will, this is an oddly worded one, so bear with me. He'll possibly be seeing his third new week one starting quarterback in a row. Okay. And he had the lowest ADOT among 85 wide receivers with 50 or more targets last year.

This is who I thought the last one was when you said he only had one season with more than 62 receiving yards per game. It's Debo Samuel. DK and Debo. Dave, who has a lower floor? DK Metcalf or Debo Samuel? I think Samuel does. Very concerned about Debo

Samuel ever getting back to where he was in 2021. In 2022, his 17-game pace, Adam, I know you love to do this. I like doing this too. It was 1,129 total yards, seven total touchdowns, 56 catches. Those catches seem really low, but that was the pace. It's 21 fewer grabs, 641 fewer yards, seven fewer touchdowns

than what he had in his breakout 2021 season. He also averaged one touch fewer per game less in 2022 than he did in 2021. 43% of his touches in both 2021 and 2022, not a combined stat, Adam, but individually each year, 43% were carries, not catches. That matters a little bit for PPR when we're talking about a wide receiver. And this is the set that really makes me the most nervous about Debo, especially considering the news that just recently came out. With Trey Lance, he averaged four targets per game.

With Jimmy Garoppolo, 6.8 targets per game. That's pretty great. With Brock Purdy last year, including the playoffs, 4.3 targets per game. That's pretty great. With Brock Purdy last year, including the playoffs, 4.3 targets per game. Low. I think he did better than 4.3. There was one game where he left almost immediately. I think I kicked that game out. Did you

kick out the Eagles game as well in the playoffs? Because Purdy threw four passes. Yes. I'll double check it when he talks about Debo, and if it changed, I'll let you know. I don't think you're right about that. All right, I'll take a look. I think because I just said there were four games

where Purdy, Kittle, Debo, Ayuk, McCaffrey all played, and he had 29 targets in those four games. He was the favorite target for Purdy because Purdy does not throw the ball downfield, doesn't have a good arm. His intended air yards per pass attempt, if he had qualified, Purdy's would have been fourth lowest in the NFL.

A little bit lower than Garoppolo's. And Debo had, like I said, the lowest ADOT among any wide receiver with 50 or more targets. So he was kind of Purdy's guy, I thought. You'll have to check. We're starting with the Dolphins game in week

13. Yes, and then you're going week 18 and the wild card in the divisional round. Those are the only games. We're not picking week 14 because Debo played 43% of the snaps? You can. I mean, I didn't. It's way below what he usually plays. I'll give you one with and one without,

but it's going to weigh it down. And we're definitely not including the Philadelphia game. Definitely not. That was the game. Talk amongst yourselves. Okay. So, anyway, I do see a very low floor. Man, if the carries go away, Heath, you've got a real problem here.

And all the stats, by the way, all the stats I gave about Purdy and the target distribution, I don't know that that's going to carry over. I'm just telling you what happened. That's four freaking games. But this team is loaded with talent, and it's hard to see Debo getting a lot of catches and getting a lot of targets. I think he's definitely going to need that rushing production. Well, first off, I don't think it's very likely

that all of the 49ers stay healthy this year. And maybe Debo is the one who gets hurt. But I think we should be careful saying, well, this guy can't be this good because look at all those players. Because all of these 49ers guys have missed games over the last few years. Also, it was pretty much three or four carries per game. Most of the games that Debo played with mcafree i don't think we have any reason to expect the carries are going to go away right but that's not that many because in 2021 we're talking about a lot more last half of the year i think he was getting

like eight carries per game uh when his catches went down but but if he if he's averaging um seven targets per game and four carries per game. That's a pretty high floor. I think because it's Kyle Shanahan and because they have so many weapons, the low floor argument makes sense. But if you're telling me that over the course of the season, he's going to have 119 targets and 68 carries, I don't think that can be a low floor player.

Agreed. I don't know about those targets, though. 119 just feels high. I don't know. With McCaffrey involved now, I don't know. I don't know how it's going to shake out. There's no way I'm drafting him in the third round.

I don't know who I am drafting in the third round because it's not DK and it's not Debo Samuel. I'm okay with Debo at the end of round three. And he's obviously a player who changes so much depending on format. And I also think he has a lot more upside than DK does. Sure.

I agree with that. Yeah, my numbers were way off. Thank you. Good job, Azer. If we include week 14, Adam, so then it's five games. off. Good job, Azar. All right. If we include week 14, Adam, so then it's five games. It's the same as with Jimmy Garoppolo.

So 6.8 targets per game, plus a few carries a game. In those games, and McCaffrey was there, four rush attempts, four rush attempts, one rush attempt in week 18, three rush attempts in the wildcard round, four rush attempts in the divisional. So I could still get three or four

per game on average. 6.8 targets per game is 115 target pace. Right, that's why the 119 is crazy. Yeah. But also, I was going to say, oh, you know, I'd be curious to know if you want to look up one last thing,

where those carries were. Because I wonder if he's getting any carries near the goal line now that they have a bona fide superstar running back. Because I wonder if the rushing touchdowns kind of disappear. All right, last guy is a Heath nomination for lowest floor in the first three rounds. So Dave, I guess without giving a clue,

will it count if I'm wrong? No, Chris Godwin. No, there's no way he's a top three round pick. Is he? That's true. Okay.

That was a really awful guess. Thank you, Dave. Okay. This player, I've hit a rut in the last two minutes. Chris Godwin is 56th overall in ADP. This player has a top five finish in his career.

He's a wide receiver. Top five finish in his career, but he's been outside the top 24 in two straight seasons. In his life. I think I already know who it is. Yep, you do. DJ Moore. No, no.

I'm just going to guess everybody. Why don't you just guess players who were being drafted in the first three rounds? Yeah, I'm not even thinking about the ADP. Go ahead. All right, he has a top five finish in his career, but he finished outside the top 24 in two straight seasons. In his last two seasons...

That's actually not true. In his last two seasons, that's actually not true. In the last two seasons that he played, his ADOT has been 14.3 yards and 10 yards. And I don't have another clue about this guy. Let's see. He is on a new team that he was on last year, but they didn't use him at all.

And they'll probably use him this year. Calvin Ridley. Yeah. Calvin Ridley. I said two straight seasons outside the top 24. I was jokingly counting last year. Just one season outside the top 24. We only played five games two years ago.

Heath thinks Calvin Ridley has among the lowest floors of the top three rounds. Heath, you can go first. You can talk about it. Deshaun Watson, 2022. Okay, Dave, now you can talk about it. Oh, also, like, multiple foot injuries at this point. Dave?

I'm drafting him closer to a ceiling. I remember how good of a receiver he was. The speed, the quickness, the route running the hands. In an Atlanta offense where he was clearly sharing, I think he's going to continue to share. I've softened my stance on him being just like a dominant target getter in Jacksonville, but I think he's still going to lead them in targets. And I think he's got a shot at 130 when it's all said and done.

Seems to have bought right back into football, seems to be focused on football, paired with a very good quarterback and an offense that I don't know how good they're going to be running the football on a week-to-week basis. And they were really, they either threw a ton or they barely threw last year. And I think they'll lean a little bit more into Trevor Lawrence this year.

I am going to take him in round three. It's going to be a late round three pick. But I'm more excited about Calvin Ridley and his upside compared to, you know, definitely over other receivers that we've talked about that are in this range on today's show. But specifically with the floor, do you think that his floor is higher than DK or Devo? That floor is right around 13 points.

I think it's in that same range. But isn't it easy to just say that about every receiver that they're... Right, it's harder for me to say that about the guy that we haven't seen play for two years. Oh, that he doesn't have that low floor? That his floor is lower than that. It's lower because we haven't seen him play. Yeah.

I think the reasons why we haven't seen him play make me more optimistic. Yeah, I mean, I understand if it was health-related, it would be worse, but Deshaun Watson's wasn't health-related. Yeah, you're right. He was suspended and came back in season against every player that he played against last year was already in football shape into the swing of the season.

And he was not, he's playing quarterback. He's playing quarterback in a new system. That's a, it's definitely a tougher ask for Watson than what it will be for Ridley. But that doesn't mean that it's not a good point. Uh, maybe I'd like, I keep the Watson point in mind when we get to Jamison Williams, because he's going to be coming back midseason. He's barely played in the NFL. I kind of get why Heath's really nervous about Jamison Williams.

I think Ridley's going to be starting with everybody else. He's been through this before. He's in a good offense. I think he's going to be pretty good. Maybe Michael Thomas is the better comparison. Thomas played seven games in 2020. Ridley played five. Thomas Ridley played five in 2021.

Thomas did not play at all in 2021. Ridley did not play at all in 2022. Michael Thomas came back and he played three games. He had five for 57 and two touchdowns, six for 65 and a touchdown, and five for 49. And he played 61%, 76%, and 68% of the snap.

So he wasn't even, you know, this 80, 90% of the snap guy. He played pretty well. I was almost surprised at his performance. Does that hold more weight when you evaluate Calvin Ridley? Because the situations are pretty similar. They basically both missed almost two full years.

Except for Ridley's going to a new team. Yeah, but he did have a new quarterback and a new head coach for what it's worth, Michael Thomas, last year. All right, so that will do it for that discussion. Do you want the Debo stat? Yes. From week 13 on through the divisional round game, he had 16 rushes, yes. From week 13 on through the divisional round game,

he had 16 rushes, period. How many of them were in the red zone inside the five? What are you looking for? Inside the five. I believe the answer is zero. Right. It is zero. Remember two years ago, he had so many long touchdown runs.

He had like four, three or four touchdown runs of more than 20 yards, which was insane. That was his wide receiver three season, Debo Samuel. Final questions here, guys. Three running backs made the list. Pollard and Brees Hall for Heath. Josh Jacobs for Dave. Who has the lowest floor among those three running backs?

Hall. Hall. Three wide receivers made the list. Dave had Metcalf and Debo. Heath had Calvin Ridley. Who has the lowest floor? Ridley. Debo.

Okay. Cool. Tomorrow, what are we doing tomorrow, Dave? We are watching our listeners do a mock draft live, 1230. Join us on YouTube. We're going to rip them apart for their terrible picks. 1230 Eastern PM, Thursday. If you want to watch it live.

Wait, wait, wait. It's not AM? No. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Watch it live. We'll publish the audio shortly thereafter. The rare afternoon podcast. Yeah. you can see

all of our shows at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today, including Heath's Dynasty show, which was terrific yesterday. Alright, we'll talk to you tomorrow on FFT.