Fantasy Football Today - Mailbag! (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 25, 2021

CBSSports.com Fantasy Editor Dan Schneier makes his FFT debut! Dan helps answer your questions and gives you great scouting insights on guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris and T.J. Hockenson. We're reading your Apple Podcast questions and your emails at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races. Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben.

Friday Mailbag here on Fantasy Football Today. Your email's at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. That's the letter I. And your questions on Apple Podcasts, your Apple Podcast reviews, always very appreciated. Leave us a five-star review and ask us a question. I'm Adam Azer. No Dave.

No Jamie. No Dave. No Jamie. No Heath. No Chris. No Schrager. We got a new guy joining the show today. He's an editor for CBSSports.com for the Fantasy site. His name is Dan Schneier, and we welcome him to the show. And you can see if you're watching the video,

at Dan Schneier, S-C-H-N-E-I-E-R. Dude, that's four straight consonants and three straight vowels. It's a lot to spell. I have friends who still can't spell that name right, Adam. 10 years, 20 years, doesn't matter. And then you got NFL at the end, just for some more consonants.

At Dan Schneier NFL, follow him. All right, tell us about yourself, Dan. Welcome to the show. First time on FFT. Not the last time. Welcome. And who are you? Well, I'm very excited to be here, Adam. And as you well know, I had some questions beforehand.

What's the dress code? I didn't want to come in here overdressed. I want to come here underdressed. So I just went with the Rob Lowe. You know, Rob Lowe famously a few years ago, he went to that football game. I think it was Saints. I'm pretty sure it was Saints Rams.. I'm not positive that MC championship game. And he was wearing, hey, basically it looked like a referee as you described it. He had the NFL logo on it. It's a

good way to stay neutral. You know, you don't want to show off your bias. And I say that with all this giants gear behind me, because for those who don't know, I am an editor for CBS sports, but I also do run the big blue banter podcast and New York Giants, all 22 film-based podcasts. So if you're a Giants fan, check it out. But yeah, I love Football Man, and I'm really excited to get going on this. I've been looking forward to this day for a while, Adam. Oh, good. Yeah, we've been looking forward to it, too.

We've been trying to get you on, and we've had you in a lot of mock drafts. So it's awesome to hear your voice now and get your fantasy advice. Let's get started with an email from Colin to the crew who has consistently overvalued Joe Mixon. Might be some truth to that. Why aren't you talking about wide receiver twos? Not wide receiver twos for a fantasy football lineup, but with each team. For example, Tyler Lockett helped me when Doug Baldwin was finishing his career. So did Landry after Beckham joined. The second receiver, as a full topic, team by team helps,

especially with what you talk about least, round six and later. Think Mike Williams or Russell Gage. Paris Campbell, he mentions, and he goes on. He's angry. He doesn't like the way we value Joe Mixon, and he doesn't like that we don't talk about round six and later, and he doesn't like that we don't talk about the second wide receivers on teams. So are there any second wide receivers that jump out at you, uh, for Colin here? Yeah. I mean, I think it's a good point. I think a lot of the times these second wide receivers, typically the ones for me that operate

out of the slot, they get the cleanest looks. So for example, Cooper cup, he's the best example of this Cooper cup. I'm sorry. He's just made a career out of operating out of the slot because when you're lined up in the slot, you're facing predominantly zone coverage instead of man coverage. And it makes it a lot easier to get open. CD lambs, the best example of this, I think will be even better this year, but he's looking for deeper guys around six or later. So some of my favorites, Adam are Curtis Samuel,

who I think they signed for a reason. That's an offense that likes to move the ball through the air. Darnell Mooney is prime for a breakout. He's a great example of this. And then a little bit deeper, Robbie Anderson. I think he was miscast a bit in his role with the Jets. They had him running a lot of just go routes and vertical routes. But in last year in Joe Brady's offense with Carolina,

you saw him operate in a different way. And I think that will translate with Darnell this season. A couple others I love, Adam, and I don't know how you feel about Debo Samuel. They're going to manufacture a lot of touches for him again, out of the slot, but also in motion when they bring him into the backfield. And then Michael Pittman, somebody who I loved last year as a rookie profile,

I think he'll take a big jump with Carson Wentz this year. I like Pittman too. I think he has a chance to be the number one wide receiver. If he takes that year two leap that everybody knows I look for. I do not like Debo Samuel. I think you had a chance to be the number one wide receiver if he takes that year two leap that everybody knows I look for. I do not like Debo Samuel. I think he had a really good list there. I'm not really looking at Darnell Mooney, but I see the sleeper appeal there. People really

like Darnell Mooney, and I get it. I just don't really want to put... I don't want to put too many eggs in the basket of the Bears passing game. I don't like Debo because I think he's the third guy. It's not just wide receiver. It's got to be the number two guy. It's obviously Kittle is one. I think Ayuk is two. I wouldn't be shocked if that

were flipped this year in terms of targets. I think Samuel is going to be third. Four years under Kyle Shanahan, nobody's had more than five touchdown catches. I just don't see him doing enough and I don't see him scoring more than five touchdowns. Debo, to me, I just don't really think there enough, and I don't see him scoring more than five touchdowns.

So Debo, to me, I just don't really think there's a ton of upside there. He's going right after Devontae Smith and Tyler Boyd, and I just can't tell you how much I'd rather have both Devontae Smith and Tyler Boyd than Debo Samuel. He's also going ahead of Curtis Samuel, going a few picks later. I can see it on Boyd. For me, with Devante Smith. I feel like there's a good chance that that passing game is not going to be

what people think it is. Jalen hurts bail from the pocket a lot as a rookie and kept things out of structure. Smith seems to me like somebody who needs things to be a little bit more in structure. Like that was last season with Matt Jones. And as far as Debo goes, I get what you're saying.

There is capped touchdown upside. I think that, but these receivers like Debo Samuel, theseizca Chanel, these players, and hopefully for the Giants sake, Darius, Tony, these players who the offense is manufactured touches for, whether that be motion them into the back of it for those quick push passes, or just getting to them quickly out on the outside or on the perimeter, because they know once they have the ball in their hands, they can force missed tackles or create yards after contact. I think they have a lot of value. Now, I would tend to say more for PPR leagues, Adam. If you're in a full-point PPR league, I like Debo Samuel a lot more than if you're in a standard league or even a half-point.

But in those full-point PPR leagues, there's only so many guys who are getting touches manufactured for them every single game. You may have a guy on the outside like Devontae Smith who has a game where he only sees four or five targets because the passing game just wasn't on track. Jalen Hurts was leaving the pocket. And Smith might not be the best example of that because Alabama did do a good job of using him in motion and on quick hitters. But there are receivers like that. Brandon Ayuk, for example, I think he is a better receiver from a talent standpoint than Debo. But I can see a situation this year where he doesn't get as many targets as people think he's going to get. Yeah.

And by the way, Dan does a lot of scouting too he wrote a lot of our nfl draft player profiles as well so you're going to hear that kind of incorporated in this uh jay writes with his first eve first ever email and i'm assuming that was his first ever email to this show not just his first ever email ever uh and he says, cause if it is, this is a strong email for your first ever email. Good job. I won my nine year strong hometown PPR league for the first time last year. And due to the Julio trade,

it's affecting my keeper. So I can keep two Dalvin cook in the first round, but the 12th overall pick Calvin Ridley with the 13th overall pick second round, AJ Brown in the third round the 36th pick uh this is easy yeah we'll see if it's easy for me then Adam now that you just put the pressure on for me for me it's cooked for sure and then I'm also going with AJ Brown the key for me here is just the value from pick 13th to 36 I actually think Julio's arrival will only help Brown because

it's going to force defenses to use more bracket coverage against Julio's arrival will only help Brown because it's going to force defenses to use more bracket coverage against Julio. Julio might be old, but he's still just as impactful and effective and defenses still give him just as much attention. So that's a great thing for AJ Brown. And more importantly here, the Titans secondary could be low key really, really bad this year. They lost a Dory Jackson. He signed with the giants and they didn't make any real effort to to replace him or really improve anyone on that secondary secondary and a pass defense in general that was lagging last season so i think that there's low-key a chance for really good game

script for this titans passing game i'm all in on a lot of players in this titans offense from at their adp from brown to julio uh toannehill as well. To Norris Jenkins. Jack Rabbit. Don't forget. That's a downgrade from Adoree Jackson, you would think, who barely played last year and they had a bad defense. This is from Ryan. They did have a great offense and Ryan wants to know about Derek Henry. Am I crazy

to think Derek Henry could see some regression this year? He's 27. He almost got 400 touches last year. Running backs generally decline years after getting around that many touches, right? Am I overthinking it? Would you still take him in the top five and redraft Derek Henry? I still love Derek Henry. I feel like some athletes in this NFL game are just built different.

The way that he's built, he has seemed to manage to, I mean, he's had minor injuries, but he hasn't had too many really crazy injuries that have kept him off the field and it just feels like he's that type of athlete that's tough to bring down that creates so much yards after contact and just can play through a lot of these injuries and I'm still all in on him 27 does seem like you're getting to that tipping point with running backs I don't love him as much in dynasty I guess but as far as just for this season that whole Titans offense seems to me like it could take a big step forward with Julio. And that just means more scoring opportunities for Henry. And the problem with

the argument, and I think a lot of people a year ago would have would have been totally on board with this email, but he did this in 2019. He had 303 regular season carries. And then in the postseason in 2019, my apologies here. Let me just, he had a ton. He had 34, 30 and 19. So he had like about 400 touches the year before and a deep postseason run.

And then he just came back and was just as good. And he had 2000 yards. I've pointed out that every running back who's had 2000 yards has lost at least one yard per carry the following season. He had five points. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Everybody's going to take the over on 4.4. Can you walk that trend?

You know, can he, then they've all fallen off, you know, they, they've fallen off. Nobody's done it twice in a row. Um, I can get into the numbers a little bit deeper at another time.

But yeah, he's tough to pass up because he's not human. So that's the problem. That's really the problem with your email and your argument. You're talking about Derrick Henry like he's human, Ryan. And he proved last year he's not a human being. Rob from Bellingham. Dear Josh, Jim, Joe, and Dennis. Hmm. uh rob from bellingham dear josh jim joe and dennis hmm josh jim joe and jen and dennis i don't know can you help me understand why naji harris will not be this year's clive edwards

ziller you'll recall ceh was a late first round pick of the chiefs was coming into a prolific offense heralded as a core piece of the Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes dynamic offensive juggernaut. He was going last year in the first round. Why should I trust Najee Harris this year, who will likely be going earlier and earlier as the 21 fantasy football year goes on? Yeah, I think with Clyde Edwards-Alaire, Adam, and obviously, as you know, from doing all these mock drafts with me, I'm incredibly high on Clyde Edwards Zolaire this year. I don't think there's any reason to the reasons we were so high on him last year, all apply this year. Plus the chiefs added a lot of firepower to that offensive line. So I love him, but I feel like his rookie season is a bit misremembered. Yeah. I mean, he got injured, but before that he was on pace for, I believe

in the 1300 range of total yards. And so he was still on pace for what would have been not the ceiling of where he was drafted, but surely not a bust by any means. And somebody who you could have relied on as a low-end RB1, more in the high-end RB2 range. And that was with, and this is a note from Chris Towers, who's not on the podcast right now, but it's from his recent fantasy preview of the Chiefs offense. That was a lot of bad luck from the touchdown standpoint. I mean, this is according to Chris, it's a number to know. Clyde Edwards-Alaire had 15 carries inside the 10 last year. And you know, that's not a huge number because 51 players had at least 10, but it highlights that he wasn't really lacking for opportunities to score, but he only came away

with one touchdown. Now, is that because of Clyde Edwards-Alaire or is that because of maybe the Chiefs offensive line dealt a lot of injuries, wasn't as strong last year, and now they added some serious pieces to that offensive line. And so I feel like that could regress in the positive direction. Clyde Edwards-Alaire could be great. Now on the flip side, when it comes to Najee Harris, I am definitely concerned with that Steelers offensive line. I think it's been really falling apart the last two or three years, and they have done a little bit to improve it, but not enough. But ultimately, I feel like the volume will still be there. And when you're drafting a guy like that,

what you really want is the volume that's first and foremost because that can get you to the RB2 numbers, I believe. And at this point, Najee Harris is still not being drafted as high as Clyde Edwards-Hilaire was at the end of last August draft. Because I remember Clyde Edwards-Hilaire shot up in some drafts all the way to the 5, 6, 7 spot. Yeah, I took him. I think I took him fifth or sixth in a draft. He had, just to keep going with what Chris said, nine carries inside the five and only one touchdown.

That was the fewest for any running back with nine or more carries inside the five yard line uh i mean it's hard to get lower than that he's the only one who had fewer than three touchdowns most had five or more you know four or more i'd say um so nine carries like mike davis had nine carries inside the five five touchdowns kareem hunt nine carries three touchdowns aaron jones nine carries four touchdowns miles gaskin nine carries three touchdown touchdowns. Myles Gaskin, nine carries, three touchdowns. Daryl Henderson, four touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Elair, one. Taysom Hill, six.

So, you know, the other thing that was annoying for Clyde Edwards-Elair managers was they would run trick plays with Travis Kelsey. They would do those little touch passes to Tyreek Hill. They were very unconventional inside the five-yard line. But, you know, I break it down into two stretches for him. First six games, he was on pace for 285 carries, 56 catches and 1,819 total yards. After that, it just wasn't, he just wasn't even nearly as involved and they started throwing the ball more and their offense really got a lot better. I would

say they just started, They just started putting it on Mahomes. So that's my fear for Clyde Edwards-Elair is that they go back to that. But if they're a little bit more balanced next year, then he's going to be really good. But I think with Harris, I guess I could see that argument. Yeah. But there are

plenty of rookie running backs who had great seasons. Maybe they were drafted earlier than Harris. McCaffrey, well, McCaffrey wasn't a great rookie season, but Fournette, Zeke, Barkley, they were all drafted way ahead of where Najee was. But you do the prospect profiles. I would say Harris was a clearly better prospect than Clyde.

Definitely a better prospect than Clyde. I felt like Clyde was a bit overdrafted. I think they were looking for a unique role for him. But that's also why I'm a little bit higher on Clyde going into year two. I know they drafted him to run those easy, quick running back routes that they know they can get free yardage out of when the defense is putting all the attention on Hill and Kelsey. And we didn't really see that too much in his rookie season.

Obviously the injury played a big factor, but I think that can happen. But Harris, by the way, is also a little bit underrated in that, in that way as well. Alabama didn't start using him that way until this past season, but he runs really good arrow routes and he does,

he does. He runs a lot of those routes that are kind of unguardable for most linebackers in the NFL. All right. Next email is from Mark. We'll do some Apple Podcast questions after this, and we'll finish with more emails. I have the fourth pick in a Dynasty startup Superflex league

that's also tight end premium. What is McCaffrey's value in the first round? If quarterbacks go 1-2-3, should I take him over a top-tier quarterback? I mean, I'd even kelsey in there as a possibility or some tight end it's dynasty startup but it's super flex and it's tight end premium so he's got the fourth pick if mccaffrey's there at four do you take him so i subscribe to the heath cummings school of qbs are gold and everything in a super flex dynasty league it's

the way i've always drafted my super flex leagues last year, started a startup league. It was a little bit different with salary cap, but I had, I did it with my homes, Burrow, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rogers. I went heavy on quarterback and I always don't spend much on running back. So for me,

the answer is always going to be the same. I'm going quarterback here again. I think the running backs are the one position in dynasty that gets the tends to get overvalued. I mean, even last year, I remember miles Sanders was viewed as a top 10, top 15 dynasty asset going into startups last year. Now, where do you view him? James Conner was another guy who some people viewed going into last year as maybe a top 40, top 50 dynasty asset.

Now, you won't even use a top 150 or 200 pick. The roles change too much with running backs. The teams change out the position too much and and you know the volume isn't always there so for me i'm pascal mccaffrey and i'm taking one of the four one of the quarterbacks because you can still get a really good young quarterback at the fourth pick it's not like we're talking eighth ninth tenth range yeah yeah i mean you're talking you're talking lamar jackson kyler murray josh allen someone like that uh how is your how's your poker game you poker you a poker player, Dan?

I'm a big poker player. Can't wait to put the test to it Tuesday. I got my eye on you, buddy. Yes, if you are a big fan, then you were with us last year. It's pandemic. We got to do something. We got to entertain some people. Let's play some poker online and let the audience come watch and talk some smack with us.

And it was a lot of fun. So we're going to do it on Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern on our YouTube channel. That's YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Again, Tuesday, 7 p.m. Eastern, playing poker courtesy of Faded Spade. So join us there. Faded Spade cards are the preferred playing cards of the World Poker Tour and poker players across the globe. Get your set for 20% off with the code FFT at FadedSpade.com.

That's a cool offer. Go to FadedSpade.com 20% off FFT is the promo code and we'll be giving away two free sets of cards during the show. So again, subscribe to the channel YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Turn the notifications on

so you know exactly when we're live. And we'll see you on YouTube, Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern. Time for our Apple podcast questions. From Megan2971, Dear Joey, Denny, Kevin, and Kurt. Man, I feel like such a loser today, which isn't unusual, but especially today.

Joey, Denny, oh yeah, NASCAR. Yeah, well, now I don't feel like such a loser. I'm not a NASCAR guy. I don't know it either. That one went right over my head, Adam. I'm usually always one to take a quarterback late in drafts. However, I'm in a 1QB league where quarterbacks

are awarded one point per completion and it is six points per passing and rushing touchdowns. And there are no negative points given, well, except for interceptions and fumbles. Okay, yeah, well, that's normal. So it's fairly standard except one point per completion.

Should I draft quarterbacks a little sooner than say after round nine or 10? So I've heard this question a lot in a different sense, Adam, and my answer is always the same. The one I usually hear it in is just the ones that have the classic six point passing touch instead of four. And to me, I don't think it changes all that much because the reason why you're drafting quarterbacks late and why there's so much value in waiting at quarterback is not because of the scoring. It has all to do with the fact that you only start 12 each week and there's 32 in the NFL versus all the other positions where that doesn't really qualify, except for tight end.

That's a onesie position, but that's this whole other thing because there's a huge tight end dead zone after the big three and maybe four this year. So my take would be that the one wrinkle here, Adam, is the one point per completion. What I would be looking for is quarterbacks that are in high volume offenses that pass the ball a lot. And so I think you can look to take one. I think you can look to take one earlier, but what you're really looking for is to take a quarterback who's defense stinks. So they're going to be in game script, but they have to throw the ball a lot and comeback mode and a quarterback who has a pretty high completion rate. Well, let me tell you, like, like Tom Brady had 401 completions last year,

and Lamar Jackson had 242. Exactly. Okay, so we're talking about 160 more points for Brady. That's crazy. I hope I did that math right. 159, I think. When you see questions, when I see questions like this, it's not necessarily you need to draft a quarterback earlier.

It's you have to change your rankings. Point per completion and six point per passing touchdown league. I'm not going to do rankings for these right now, but I am taking Tom Brady over Lamar Jackson. Without a doubt. Yeah. In fact, you could probably wait at quarterback because people are going to take rankings for these right now, but I am taking Tom Brady over Lamar Jackson. Without a doubt. Yeah. In fact, you could probably wait at quarterback because people are going to take the usual suspects and you can take Matt Ryan.

Yeah. Who led the NFL in completions. Matt Ryan is perfect for this. Right. The dropback passers gain a lot more value. So it just changes the players. It changes the rankings, not the strategy, I think. Brennan in Grand Rapids, Michigan. This one I think I know.

Dear Tom, Jim, Chad, and Denard. These are going all over my head, Adam. I got to be honest with you. Come on, listen. We're in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Okay. Denard. Okay, we got it.

Denard Robinson. Yeah. These are Michigan quarterbacks. Yeah. Yeah, these are Michigan quarterbacks. Yeah. Yeah, all right. I have picks 104, 209, 210, and 304 in the rookie draft. So 104, 209, 210, and 304. It is a 10-team IDP PPR league with two flex. Who should I aim for with my two second-round picks

and my third-round pick? So I really like where he's at from a quarterback standpoint, because it's only one quarterback starting league. He can bang on Kyler, I think for 10 years, worst case scenario, maybe two of breaks out tight ends, a bit different. Kelsey's going to be there for a few more years. I don't love the backend three, but tight end, you can usually kind of tight end. I wouldn't use one of these picks on.

So what I really think you should focus on here is running back and wide receiver depth. And at the two Oh nine and two 10, if they somehow fall, I would prioritize Michael Carter, the running back on the Jets, or Terrace Marshall, the receiver on Carolina, or Kadarius Tony, who continues to just plummet in these rookie drafts, the receiver from the Giants. But otherwise, I love Josh Palmer, the wide receiver for the Chargers. He was, out of all the receivers I scouted, I thought he was the best value by far in the nfl draft i was really excited to see him match up with los angeles chargers because he's a massive deep ball threat and that's perfect for justin herbert i also really like diami brown

who's at a unc and went to the washington football team he's just a really unique prospect who has a lot of size who's a great size speed combo he He kind of reminds me of a DK Metcalf life. I'm sorry, DK Metcalf light. And if that makes any sense, he's not just as talented, but he's got size and speed and he was kind of underdrafted. Otherwise for your next picks, I like Nico Collins, Kenneth Gainwell, Amari Rogers, if you need the help now and Aaron Rogers come back. But at the 304, I want to give you a couple sleepers too i love khalil herbert he's a running back who was drafted to the bears when i scouted him i comped him to tiki barber i thought he was by far and away the best value of the entire running back class i think it could also

be interesting with that 304 to just get a potential idp stud because he did mention it was an idp league and if you're going to go that route i would look to get mika parsons or jamin davis linebacker for the cowboys linebacker for the washington football team both of those guys are going to be racking up a lot of tackles but they can also make plays as a blitzer and in coverage so they're three-way linebackers i think those are the guys to prioritize with those picks mic drop good stuff from russ bin dear jalen McIntua, you know these ones or you need help?

Okay. Alabama quarterbacks and now fantasy quarterbacks. Half PPR, 10 team league. DK Metcalf in the fifth or Hawkinson in the 15th? This one for me, Adam. I'm curious if you disagree with me, but it's going to be DK Metcalf for me without

a doubt. I don't want to spoil it because we may be doing something with this me, but it's going to be DK Metcalf for me without a doubt. I am. And we're going to, I don't want to spoil it because I may be dropped. We may be doing something with this later, but TJ Hawkinson is one of my, on my top five to avoid list. I want nothing to do with Hawkinson this season. I would take Hawkinson because I, I'm pretty sure you can get Metcalf in the third or the fourth. Um, Hawkinson is probably like a seventh or eighth round pick in a 10 team.

No, like a sixth round pick in a 10 team. No, like a sixth round pick in a 10 team league based on his ADP. Sixth or seventh. Why are we so high on Hawkinson, Adam? I'm very curious. Target volume. But is that even a guarantee or are we just assuming with Jared Goff there he's going to get a ton of targets? No, it's not just

Jared Goff there. It's with Prashad Pariman and Tyrell Williams and Amandra St. Brown. And they have a really bad receiving core. It could also just be a really bad passing game, though. It will be. I looked,

I'm doing the research now to see, I've only done three of the five years. I want to see the last five years where the top tight ends have finished in terms of targets on their respective teams and through 2016 17 and 18 every single top five tight end was first or second on his team in

targets so just that's a little bit of a side note just keep that in mind we expect that from kelsey we expect that from waller and kittle and all that but that's why i don't really want anything to do with herb smith i don't think he has top five upside. Something to think about. I think he's going to lead the team in targets. We know they're going to have a bad defense. So I think they'll be throwing a lot. And yeah, I understand.

We did our tight end episode yesterday. I understand that the metrics don't really show that he's a great player. But I think you're just kind of buying into the opportunity. He could be second or third in targets among tight ends. And if he is, then like Kyle Rudolph five years ago, he's going to back into being a top five tight end. It is also an Anthony Lynn offense though. So a lot of those targets will funnel through the backs. I just feel like when you bank on these guys,

it's more so with the running back position than tight end. I don't think there's as many examples with tight end, but when you're banking on projected volume and a bad on an offense, you know, is not going to be very good at all. I think it could be bottom five in the bottom five in the NFL. It seems like those are the, those are the types of bets that tend to fail more often because volume is,

is kind of tricky. We think that he's the best receiver on that offense, but is that for sure? He's, he's more of a two way tight end. I feel like he's a better blocker than receiver. So I don't know about this one. Hawkins is going to remain on my avoid list. All right. Yeah.

He's going back to back with Mark Andrews. So you're an Andrews guy in that, in that argument. Without a doubt, but I'd take pits over both of them. Uh, this is from, uh, hello alice bradley anderson and cup oh those are coopers there we go yeah i'm in the uh i'm the commissioner of a 10 team half ppr redraft league we have a 16 playoffs with two buys it seems like every year someone gets screwed in the first or second round and scores the second most points that week, but loses to the team who scores the most points.

It seems to me like the three seed gets screwed for doing better in the regular season than the four and the five. I presented the idea of a points based playoff system where the two highest scoring teams move on the first two weeks of the playoffs and then a normal one-on-one championship week in week 17. I don't think it would make the playoffs any less boring and ensure that the team who performs the best in the playoffs moves on. I have done this,

Dan. I did it in fantasy baseball last year and had no problem with it. Actually, I am the commissioner of that league, that baseball league. And I forgot that I made that the rule. And I thought I won the first round of the playoffs. And then I went back and looked at the rules and I realized that my matchup had the two lowest scores. So I actually lost, but

yeah, I think it's a good idea. I think once you get to the playoffs, I think it's a fine idea. I don't think you have to do this, but if your league likes it, once you get to the playoffs, you've got four teams playing in the first round, highest two scores advance. You've got four teams playing in the next round, highest two scores advance, and then you've got your championship. Yeah, I'm all in on this. I'm all in on anything to help with the variance of fantasy sports. I like the two-week championship idea. I don't know if you've heard of that, Adam, but a lot of leagues do. The championship game is the last two weeks, and it's just the aggregate score of that between the finals matchups. And an 18 game season. Now you can do that in weeks and weeks 16 and 17.

You don't have to play week 18, but you get your normal fantasy schedule, but a two week championship. It's not a bad idea. Yep. So I'm on board with this. I think it's a great idea. Okay.

Here is from, uh, here's one from method Manilow in west virginia hey gino pat mark jeff and oliver but gino smith the first one and then pat white i mean are these west virginia quarterbacks mark i don't know the others yeah okay uh two quarterback league, 10 team, $200 salary cap league. All yards count the same. Passing, rushing, and receiving. Interesting. Keeping Dak for $30.

Would you keep Derek Henry for $26, Calvin Ridley for $19, or Jalen Hurts for $5 in a 2QB league? I think I'm going to have a different answer than you on this one, Adam. I'm going Jalen Hurts. I just feel like with this scoring system, QBs are worth just about everything. And I would get as many as you can. Yeah, it's 10 team. So that means there's going to be potential for more on the wire, but I would imagine if you're in a league like this, where all yards count the same passing and rushing, then you're going to, you're going to probably see a league where everyone owns QBs. And if you have more QBs, you can use them as trade bait.

I would just try to get as many quarterbacks as possible. So $5 Hertz, I'll take it. I agree completely. This one is from R-T-E-Y-U-V-G-R-R. How badly did I screw up? I had 1.1 in a Superflex Dynasty League startup. I traded 2.12 and 5.1 to get back in the first round. And I wound up with a core of my homes,

Lamar Jackson, super flex, AJ Brown and Hawkinson, but I have Gaskin and Edmonds at running back. Did I give up too much? Was Hawkinson a mistake at 4.1? So I'll start with a good here. I love your,

I love having a super flex core of lamar jackson in my homes i've said before i love in dynasty i'm all about the quarterbacks and i'm literally downgrading running back so i don't mind that you're weak at running back but i just i can't get on board with hockinson at four one i'm not a big believer in him we just went over this a little bit earlier i don't see the profile for him as being kind of a fantasy difference maker he's not the receiver Darren Waller is. And I think if you're going for that type of play at 4-1, you're hoping he can evolve into that.

Not only a target hog, but someone who can do something with the target. So other than that, I like it. But I do kind of feel like Hawkinson was a mistake at 4-1. As someone who likes Hawkinson, I wouldn't have taken him that early. But yeah, you got some good stuff there. You'll be all right. And I think Connor's going to get hurt so Edmonds is going to have a few

weeks where he's potentially a huge stud this week. So he'll be good there. From B. Do Well. Good morning Pete, Keith, Eddie, and Ezekiel. Those are Ohio State running backs. Oh, this guy's uncle is Keith Byers. So that's pretty cool. Half PPR league with two keepers.

We can only keep one position per keeper, so you can't keep two running backs or two wide receivers. I think I may have read this as an email, but we'll do it anyway. I'm keeping McCaffrey, so who would you keep? Ridley in the third, McLaurin in the

fifth, or make a trade for Kelsey in the second. And then don't make my, so he would have to give up Zeke and Ridley for Kelsey. So Ridley in the third, McLaurin in the fifth, or trade Zeke and Ridley for Kelsey. That's a tough call because I am with you,

Adam. I am team Kelsey this year. I think he is one of the best values in fantasy. Anytime you can get him. And I've seen it happen, after the first six picks of a draft, I'm in on it. But I think it's a little steep to give up Zeke, in this case, Zeke and Ridley. For Kelsey, for me, it's a close call,

but I'm going with McLaurin over Ridley based on the volume. I think they're both going to be high-volume players in offenses that are either going to want to throw a lot, like Washington, based on their coordinator, or need to throw a lot, like Atlanta, because I think their defense is going to be terrible. So I'm going to go with McLaurin here. I like them both as prospects. I think they're very similar receivers, by the way.

They're really good at route running and getting open, and they're going to have a lot of targets. So I'm going with McLaurin here. From Leo9Dass, another sleeper, Colts tight end Kylan Granson. Your thoughts? I think that's going a little too deep, but I do love a sleeper tight end on the Colts roster who's not named Kyle Granson, and it's Moelle Cox.

I think that we've seen already with Carson Wentz, he can provide value for a tight end too with Dallas Goddard. We've even seen him make two tight ends fantasy viable at the same time. So I feel like Moelle Cox is a really good athlete. He flashed a little bit of his skillset last year, but Phillip Rivers, just that arm was pretty dead. So I really like Moelle Cox as a sleeper in that offense from maple syrup,

dynasty league, PPR, three receivers trade, Justin Herbert. I think we read this one last week. I already have Dak Prescott. I trade Justin. Yeah,

we hated this trade. So sorry. Do not give up Justin Herbert for Michael Pittman. No. Yeah, you can do better than that. All right, time for some emails to finish the show at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We will get to them right after this quick break

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Adam Azer with Dan Schneier. Make sure you're following him on Twitter at DanSchneierNFL. That is S-C-H-N-e-i-e-r schneier it's easier to type than to say completely right yeah uh from chris dynasty league i have derrick henry mike davis and camara would you trade take trace sermon or michael carter i'm banking banking on Carter here for two key reasons. I think he's a better prospect. Dave actually did the prospect breakdown of him

and watched a lot of his film. And we compared notes because I had watched him for another podcast I do. And we just like his skill set a lot for the NFL. He's really good at forcing missed tackles. And then he has the burst to turn those into touchdowns potentially for fantasy persons. I also feel like he has a clearer path than Sermon.

Just like you said, Shanahan's workload history, I don't ever see sermon being the guy and i'm not so sure michael carter will be the guy right away but i think ultimately he can evolve into that type of player this is from eric from the best city in the sunshine state and addressed to ed ray michael and warren so this guy What is the best city in the Sunshine State? The best city that I've been to? Tampa? Is that what that is? Oh, God, no. He's a Miami guy.

Oh, Miami. You think Miami's the best city in the Sunshine State, Adam? I hate Miami. Yeah, I don't like it either. So that's the wrong answer for me. I don't... Man, I really don't know. I like Palm Beach a lot.

It's very nice. It's quiet. West Palm. Oh, you know what? I'm going to say Delray. Delray is like downtown Delray. Great. You ever been there?

I've never been to Delray. No. Check it out. It's fun. All right. So Eric from Delray says, I got an offer for Justin Jefferson from the Jonathan Taylor manager straight up.

Would you trade Jefferson for Taylor? It's a dynasty league. He has Tyree Kill, Calvin Ridley, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin. And he also has Dobbins, Mixon, and Gaskin. This is a really good team here. Same. Yeah.

Well, I think I would take Taylor. But I would take Taylor because he is definitely deeper at wide receiver than running back. What would you do? I'm in the same boat as you, Adam. I normally, again, anti-running back and dynasty. But with his receiver depth, first of all, this team is going to win championships in the next five years. That's a multiple. This team is stacked.

I don't know how you got there, but good for you, my friend. And Taylor is also kind of that next level prospect. If you remember back to the combine, he was comped similarly, at least from the athletic standpoint to Saquon Barkley. He's been the closest comp to Barkley since Barkley was drafted. I know it hasn't been many years, but Barkley was kind of that next level running back prospect from a size speed standpoint. So I love this trade. I think it's a no-brainer given your wide receiver depth. Okay, this is from Rivan.

I recently had the 10th pick and I tried out a strategy, which I think I like if I'm picking at the ends. I'm pretty sure this is a best ball league. So I locked up my studs in the first four rounds. Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas in round four. Excellent. Rounds five through six,

I swung for the fences with the combo of Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. And after those picks, I decided to lock up backfields. I took Fournette and Jones, Singletary and Moss, and then I took MVS and Lazard. My strategy is if they play the hot hand,

then I win at that position. This only works in best ball as I do not have to set my lineup. Are there any other backfields that should be going back-to-back? Arizona, Denver. Yeah, so locking up a backfield in best ball, it's an interesting strategy.

And what do you think? I have a different mindset on this one, Adam. I actually don't at all like the idea of stacking backfields in best ball. So I think you're limiting your upside at best. Only one of the two will be able to make your best ball lineup weekly, but there's going to be weeks where that offense doesn't score a rushing touchdown and neither scores. And if both of them are healthy, there's a good chance that neither of them is startable in best ball. So I really think you're limiting your upside and best ball to me is all about upside. You're playing to be first of 12.

It's not a weekly league. So to me, I'm not, I'm not a believer in stacking backfields. Okay. From Andrew Phillips, dear Joe, Warren,

Doug, and Jeff. These were quarterbacks that played in the CFL. Joe Theismann, Warren Moon, Doug Flutie, and Jeff Garcia. That was impressive, Adam. How did you get there?

You're joking, right? Not entirely. I mean, I guess I don't know. I don't know the game. No, no, no, because he put it in the email. I missed that part of the email. Yeah, he told me. I don't know. I don't think I would have gotten that.

No. I mean, it's Joe. Like, I see Warren, and it's like, okay, that's probably Warren. You think Warren Moon, yeah. Yeah. But the other, yeah, I don't think I would have gotten that. It's different now that I know it. Now I can be, oh, Doug Flutie. Yeah, so I don't know.

I'm taking the L on this one, Adam. No, I would have too. I just didn't feel like being like, oh, I just cheated. So anyway, this is an eight-team, two-quarterback, two-keeper league. I had a strong team last year, and I finished third, but my biggest weakness was QB2 in my two-QB league. I had Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton. I want to lock up my QB2 early this year, potentially with my first pick.

I'm keeping Lamar. So the other quarterbacks that are gone that are going to be kept are Mahomes, Allen, Brady, Murray, Prescott, and Wilson. Which QB would you target from the next tier? Herbert, Hurts, Stafford, anyone else? Yeah, I have a lot of... First of all, I'm going to make a comment now

that I love Matt Stafford this year with Sean McVay. I feel like that offense has been so efficient with Jared, even with Jared Goff at times in that passing game. And I really think Jared Goff is a much big, a massive step down from Stafford. So I think he's going to hit the ground running there. They have really good weapons as well, but I have different late round guys that I'm targeting and they all fit the same billing at them. They're all, they're all those Konami code quarterback. So for those of you not familiar with the Konami code, it's basically targeting quarterbacks who also give you points on the ground. So Jalen hurts is a great example, but he'll be drafted a bit higher.

I'm going to be honest. I'm back on the cam Newton train this year. I feel like they've done enough to upgrade around him and you're still going to get a guy who's utilized early and often in the red zone as a runner. And so I feel like he can give you a lot of value there. Daniel Jones is another one, Adam. I don't want to sound like a Homer here because because things can go poorly but his adp just keeps sinking and sinking and sinking and he still is that same quarterback from his rookie season who gives you the upside on the ground with rushing stats and now he has kenny

galladay to work with cadarious tony so i feel like he's another example of somebody i'm targeting late that can fit that Konami code. Yeah, this question, though, was he wants to take his number two quarterback with his first pick. So once Mahomes... Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Brady, Murray, Prescott, and Wilson are all gone.

Herbert, Hertz, Stafford, those are the three he mentioned. You got to throw Aaron Rodgers in there. I think I would probably just go Aaron Rodgers. But I tell you what, if it were one QB league, I would take Jalen Hurts. But since you're not going to be able to just play the waiver wire or try to find upside later in the draft,

I guess you could. But I would probably go Aaron Rodgers. That'd be my pick. Out of those those guys i'm with you for sure i think people are underrating rogers right now just because of the uncertainty of the situation it doesn't seem to me like he has as much leverage as some people think he does i think he's just going to be on the packers they'll they'll do something nice to make him feel you know comfortable and if he is back on the packers he should be the go-to guy here as your target for that really high-end second qb especially with the addition of amari rogers is going to make him even better last email ahoy gents from haas in a town in hobbiton

or something this is from lord of the rings and of the far eastern part of West Farting, I don't even know what these words are. I consider myself a nerd, Adam. I like a lot of this stuff, and I've never really gotten into Lord of the Rings. I don't know what happened there. I watched the first one about 17 years ago. I think I was a freshman in college. So that was, what was that, 2002, actually.

So more than that. I didn't like it at all i thought it's i thought it sucked but then i saw a part of i saw a battle scene on tv and i was mesmerized i was wow this isn't this is impressive i need to give this series another run so we'll see maybe i'll try to find time for it in like 18 years when my kids are in college. All right. Draft philosophy discussion question that should benefit the majority of your listeners like me who play in three or fewer leagues per year, who might question analyst advice as too bullish or worse,

stop listening to the show because their seasons are ruined because their risky first and second round draft picks bust. The question is, don't stop listening to the show. Compared to the common listener who might play in one or two leagues at most, do fantasy analysts have a bias toward drafting players based on potential upside because they can better afford to miss on those gambles

by spreading that risk around in their 10 or more leagues that they play in? That's a good question. Are we more risky in our drafts because we have so many teams my answer is no uh i do not ever factor that in i don't you know my philosophies would be the same no matter how many leagues i were in uh how about you yeah i'm the same way as you i don't let it factor me factor into my thinking at all yeah i i think that no you should you should draft for upside i do think that we overstayed upside a little bit because we don't know who has the most upside the example i use often was two seasons ago todd girley was coming off what was you know he was basically ladanian thomason

for the second straight year and then he hurt his knee and this was the ram super bowl year um so he was coming off that run and remember it didn't end well for him he didn't look good late but he became a second round pick kind of a late second round pick and i was like who has more upside than todd girley he was the best player in fantasy two years in a row before his injury so So I was like, I'm definitely taking him over Dalvin Cook. And of course, Cook has now become almost Todd Gurley. Todd Gurley is

not on a football team. So I think that when you hear analysts talk about upside, we could easily be wrong about it, but I don't think it's a mistake to target upside, no matter how many leagues you're in. That's how you win. You take shots. I wish I had more guts last year

and had taken Metcalf over Lockett. I would have done, you know, because I felt it in my gut, but everybody talked me out of it. So, no, there's no effect based on the amount of leagues I'm in. But, yeah, I think the word

upside is probably like a drinking game. We probably use it a little bit too of leagues I'm in. But yeah, I think the word upside is probably like a drinking game. We probably use it a little bit too much, I would say. I also feel like, Adam, in this regard, I don't think you can really, unless you're taking Patrick Mahomes, which is terrible from a positional value standpoint, and we wouldn't advise it in those first two rounds, you can't really

bank on floor like it seems to suggest in this. I feel like with injuries being so kind of i'm a diagnostic i think they're mostly luck based so with the injury factor and a lot of other factors that go into fantasy football there's so many the variance is so high you can't really predict floor either so if you're just banking on this guy has a high floor this he's not a high ceiling guy but he has a high floor ultimately sometimes those guys end up not being the high floor guys and they end up being the bust as well. So that's kind of my take on ceiling versus floor. Sure. All you have to do

is go back to the first email that said to the crew who has consistently overvalued Joe Mixon. Yeah. Well, Dan, thanks for coming on. Good to hear from you. It was awesome, man. Thanks for having me, Adam. You'll hear Dan Schneier again, no doubt. He'll be playing poker with us next Tuesday, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Head on over to fantasy football today in five. I just recorded two player profiles with Jacob Gibbs, Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas. The math on Michael Thomas is really, really exciting when you talk about target share and air yards and the players who have kind of done what he did last year. You'll see. You'll see. Just check it out. Jacob does a much better job explaining it than I do.

That is Dan Schneier. I am Adam Azer. Enjoy your weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you Monday on Fantasy Football Today.