Fantasy Football Today - Mailbag! Are the Top 3 TEs Safe? How Should You Draft at the Turn? (06/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 11, 2021

We've got a bunch of your questions at [e-mail]. Some of the topics we cover include how to draft at the turn (4:00), how safe the Top 3 TEs are (10:30), Brandon Aiyuk's outlook (13:10), Jalen Hurts for MVP (25:10), D.J. Moore's upside (28:50), saying a player has "star potential" (33:45) and some keeper questions. Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Happy Friday, everybody. We got a bonus mailbag episode for you here on Fantasy Football Today. And we got a bonus Jacob Gibbs episode as well. He's stepping up to the plate. Nobody wanted to do the mailbag.

I was like, hey, anybody want to do a mailbag? Didn't hear. Just crickets. Do I have a cricket sound? I got crickets. Where are you a cricket sound? I got crickets. Where are you, crickets? These are crickets. I've heard better crickets than that, but that's what I heard.

But Jacob was like, I'll do it. So thanks for stepping up, man. Happy Friday. Yeah, thanks for having me, man. I'm always happy to come on and ask some questions anytime you need me. Good stuff. And we have so many emails. I think I got 12 in the notes today. Happy to come on and ask some questions anytime you need me. Good stuff. And we have so many emails. I think I got 12 in the notes today.

We do have some injury stuff and just news items. You probably saw what the Philadelphia running back coach, Jamel Singleton, said. He didn't really promote the idea of an every-down running back. We know Amari Cooper's got an injury. He might miss the start of training camp. Saquon Barkley's being a little evasive about his timetable, just really not giving one, saying he's going one day at a time. But we're going to save that for next week.

We'll catch up on all the off-season news. We just want to talk. We just want to answer your emails today in this kind of mini episode, this little mailbag here. Big weekend plans, Jacob? Nothing really, no, just kind of catching up. I've been traveling a lot lately, so I've still got some work to get caught up on. Kind of boring. That is pretty boring. Sorry. Yeah, that catching up. I've been traveling a lot lately, so I've still got some work to get caught up on. Kind of boring.

That is pretty boring. Sorry. That's okay. I've got nothing planned either. I am planning for Tuesday night. Hope you join us on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football today. We're live at 7 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday night for a PPR mock draft. And Ben Gretsch is coming on. He's going to join us. Thank you.

Yes, I know. I'm pumped for that. He'll be on the live stream. And again, it's youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Comment on our mock draft. Ask us questions. You can make picks for us as well. Subscribe to the channel and we'll see you on youtube.com slash fantasy football today, Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern. All right. Daniel in Indianapolis has the first question. Our email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. That is the letter I. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. I'm currently trying to get younger in my dynasty league. It's a one quarterback league.

I have previously offered Devontae Adams and a 2022 fifth round rookie pick for A.J. Brown and a third round rookie pick for A.J. Brown and a 3rd round rookie pick. So I offered Adams and a 5th for A.J. Brown and a 3rd. Wasn't really touched on in the emergency podcast, but would you consider A.J. Brown a Dynasty buy low after the Julio trade?

I mean, I love that deal. If you can get that done, I would rather have A.J. Brown than Adams in Dynasty. Honestly, he's my wide receiver one. I don't know. What do you think about this? It's hard to ever call A.J. Brown and buy a low because everyone knows how awesome he is.

Yeah, I think they're close enough. I'd do this trade. Yeah, if you can get him for anything less than top two or three receiver value, then absolutely, yeah. Right. All right. From Dan in a North Carolina city, we will go with Durham.

I'm not going to be very good at these. Hey, Sam, Norm, Cliff, Coach, and Woody. I'm not going to be good at these either. You don't know that? That sounds vaguely familiar, like maybe one of the old TV shows that I'm just too young for. Cheers. There you go.

There it is. All right. Yeah, Schrager still doesn't know what it is. That is cheers. During the live draft, I think this is from Tuesday night's mock draft that we did on YouTube. You answered my question, but I guess we didn't do it adequately enough. I guess we never really answered it. We just asked it.

So here's the question. In a full redraft league, snake draft, with a pick close to the turn, how differently do you approach your picks in the odd versus even rounds? Are you more reachy on the way to the long swing? Best player available on the short swing? Is there even a noticeable difference

in how you approach the picks each way? I don't think there's a difference necessarily between the odd and even rounds for me. I don't know. I think it kind of depends. It's going to go like each group of picks for me, depending on how the team is going, how you sense that the draft is flowing. You know what I mean? Like, so especially the most recent relevant example that comes to mind is like if you're in a super flex league or something, you kind of get a feel for how the quarterbacks are going.

You know what I mean? And sometimes you do have to reach for like positional scarcity or something like that. But I don't know. Do you have anything on this one? Well, yeah. So, so, okay, let's talk. We're talking picks 10 to 12. Right. Okay. You know, what you do is you have,

you're never drafting a quarterback that early, at least we're not. So we'll just take the first two picks. You have maybe three or four running backs. You like maybe three or four running backs you like, maybe three or four wide receivers you like, but you have to see. You have to do your tiers. And you have to see with your first pick,

am I more likely to get the running back that I like in the second round or the wide receiver that I like in the second round? And that is how you base your first pick. Or maybe you want two running backs, maybe you want two wide receivers. But the bottom line is you base your first pick. Or maybe you want two running backs, maybe you want two wide receivers, but the bottom line is you tier your players and you have to determine what you think is more likely to get in the second round and that is

what you use as an X factor in your first pick. I would not take a tight end other than Kelsey. I would not take Waller or Kittle with picks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, or Kelsey. I would not take Waller or Kittle with picks 10, 11, 12,

13, 14, or 15. I wouldn't personally do that. I know Chris towers would. So I'm not even looking, I'm only looking at running backs and wide receivers, picks 10 through 12.

And yeah, pick one is a little bit different. Now pick two. Do I reach? No, I don't think I do. I, I,

again, I'm looking at running backs and wide receivers. And if the best wide receiver on the board is less, let's say like wide receiver eight. I don't think that's going to be the case. This is not, it's not going to be the case. Let's say it's a Justin Jefferson who usually goes a little bit later. And the best running back on the board is maybe Nick Chubb in PPR, or Joe Mixon. Well, Mixon might go later. I don't know. I have to look at ADP. No, I'm pretty confident in the players I'm going to get in rounds three and four that I'll just take whoever I like best.

I'm not going to reach. Now, in round three and four, you might have to reach. If you see, if running back is going really heavily in that draft or something, and you don't want to wait till round five, six to get a David Johnson type or something like that, then yeah, you might. You might. Depends on your philosophy, how comfortable you are with kind of like a one RB. Yeah, you might have to reach for a running back and take like a David Montgomery or something like that. But just starting off in rounds one and two,

I'm not reaching at all. And I'm not looking at a tight end. And you first pick. Adam, the other thing, deeper in drafts, maybe you think it's a reach, maybe it's not. But you should always look at, if you're at the 10th pick, who 11 and 12 need, what position. Yeah, always. You're going to take a tight tight end early but it's six picks earlier than they

should go definitely take it before you can get stolen by someone else i i guess here's a good here's a good one right let's say you have um the 10th pick and you're picking 15th in the second round right 11 12 yeah you're picking 15th uh Let's say you took a running back in round one. Let's say you took Austin Eckler. So you could then, I'm just looking at ADP on NFC. Do you take Stefan Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, someone in that group? Or do you take Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson?

I personally like those wide receivers better. What about you, Jacob? I like the receivers better. Like, all things equal, I would take Calvin Ridley there, I think. But I think, yeah, this is a situation where you do have to consider that it's going to be a long time before your next pick, and that's generally where the rest of the running backs go before you hit that running back dead zone um right so maybe you do just yeah load up on the two running backs there and and hope that

you can get you know one good receiver falls to you with your third pick right so so let's say you're uh you know you took that running back in the first round now you're you're going either ridley or uh or naji harris or mixon right with your next pick based on adp you could be looking at alan robinson mike evans amari cooper julio jones that group chris godwin right or and i like those guys way more than david montgomery david montgomery josh jacobs chris carson okay so so that means you can take so yeah so Those guys way more than David Montgomery. David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson. Okay. So that means you can take... Yeah. So I think you can do whatever you want there.

And it just depends on how much you like those running backs. You might hate those running backs. You might hate Jacobs, Montgomery, Carson. I'm fine with Carson there. ETN. Carson would be my pick, I guess. But unfortunately, I would love for Terry McLaurin to drop there. Right now, he's the wide receiver that goes just before that group.

If you could tell me McLaurin was going to go there, I'd probably go running back. If I knew McLaurin and Keenan Allen were off the board, that's a better case to go wide receiver, I guess. I don't know. I guess you've got conflicting answers there. But these are the decisions that you're going to have to make. Let's go to Patrick.

Patrick says, Dear Frank, Brandon, Eno, Kalen, and Nikhil. I only know one Nikhil. Yeah, are these like Sun Devils? That's what I was like. Brandon, Kee, Brandon, and Iuk. Yeah, I these like Sun Devils? That's what I was like.

Yeah, I'm thinking right. Arizona State. It's probably, yeah, Arizona State. I don't know the rest. On Monday's podcast, you talked about how going safe at tight end is drafting one of the first three. Well, last year in my first two drafts, I had the fifth pick in both. The first one I drafted Dalvin Cook.

The second one, I drafted safe and I went with Michael Thomas and George Kittle. It was the worst team in my last eight years, maybe ever. We all know that nothing

is 100% guaranteed, but pivoting off running back last year left a real sour taste in my mouth. So, yeah, I think he just wants to know, do we consider those tight ends to be safe?

You know, what are your thoughts on that? Um, I'll take one of the big three tight ends if the price is right. I think I grabbed Kittle in our live draft last week, um, in the third round. Um,

but yeah, I generally lean towards taking running backs early. Um, I get what he's saying. I don't know. I think that's safer than taking tight end. Generally speaking. Um, there's been plenty of research done that shows the hit rate drops off significantly after the first few rounds of running back.

But yeah, I'm generally going, especially in years past, with one of the top three tight ends or waiting at the position. But this year, I think there are a couple of mid-round guys that generally avoid the mid-round tight ends. But I really like Hawkinson particularly. So yeah, it's kind of, I'm not really sure I understand the question in terms of running backs or tight ends early, but I definitely lean towards running backs early. Yeah. I looked Thomas and Kittle both got hurt. So it's not like Kittle played poorly. Kittle was good.

He played Thomas wasn't, He didn't catch a touchdown, but he was hurt all year. And Drew Brees was hurt for half of Thomas' games. So I think you made great picks. Cook, Thomas, Kittle was an amazing way to start a team. You got unlucky. So if you got unlucky last year because of injuries, I don't think it should completely affect your strategy. But I don't think Kittle's safe.

I do not think Kittle is safe. I do not think Kittle is safe. I've talked about this. He is injury prone. Brandon Ayuk is the best. I think the best wide receiver he's played with. Deebo Samuel is good as well. And they might change quarterbacks. They might go to more of a mobile quarterback

who isn't going to throw for as many yards or as many touchdowns. So I don't consider Kittle safe. I'm probably not drafting him unless I just feel it's a steal late in round three. From Jeff, a retired U.S. Air Force member from a town in the Emerald

Coast of Florida. Ben, you live in Florida? I'm not from Florida, though. Where is the Emerald Coast? I have no idea. I also don't know. I think it's like the West Coast, like Naples area. Can you Google that? Take a look.

Dear Walter, Gail, Cedric, Neil, and Matt. Those are Bears. Yeah, Bears running backs. I'd like your thoughts on how you think Brandon Ayuk will do this year with Debo and Kittle both back and a possible change at quarterback. I think Ayuk is being overvalued, whereas I feel Paris Campbell and Trey Sermon are being undervalued in the Dynasty

community. So I made a trade and would like your thoughts. I traded Ayuk, Khalil Herbert, and Benny Snell for Trey Sermon, Paris Campbell, Russell Gage, T.Y. Hilton,

a 20-22 second and a third round draft pick. So he gave up Iyuk. Crazy trade. Iyuk, Khalil Herbert, and Benny Snell for Sermon, Paris Campbell, Russell Gage, Hilton, and a second and third next year. This is tough

because I really, really love Paris Campbell. And I am big on sermon as well um but i just don't like trades where i give her the best player and i think iuk is clearly the most valuable player in that trade um what do you think about the trade itself before we talk about iuk i i think you're gonna needon to be surprisingly good to give to him for this trade. I don't think you really have a ton there. Although, you have Khalil Herbert, Benny Snell. Right now, you've one starter there. You can start Paris Campbell in a deeper league.

It's a dynasty league. I mean, it could be pretty deep rosters. You can start Russell Gage. You can start T.Y. Hilton. And you're getting a second and third round pick. And then you've got this wild card in Trey S and trey sermon so i actually i don't hate it i don't think i do it just because i'd rather have the best player and i think we both view that to be iuk but you know you've got more roster flexibility with it i'm going to give it a c minus say it's a i think a loss i think

that's fair yeah i don't hate it either it just sounds like he might be underrating Ayuk. I think he's legit, like an absolute stud. Like you said, you think he's the best receiver there? I think so too. I have him ranked 16th at wide receiver for Dynasty ahead of guys like Allen Robinson, Mike Evans, Jamar Chase. So I'm super high on him long term. I think there are some concerns about his role this year.

Would you concede that, Adam? I don't know about his role. Can the 49ers give us a great fantasy wide receiver? They've never had a guy get more than six receiving touchdowns under Kyle Shanahan at any position. They... When they have a good defense, they run the ball a ton. They've only had a good defense once,

like a great defense, under Shanahan, and that was their Super Bowl year, and they ran the ball a ton. Otherwise, they're a decent passing team. Very efficient. I wouldn't say his role, Jacob, I would say his ceiling, just in that offense. Yeah.

So I know I bring up targets per outrun every time I come on here. But the 49ers are just another great use case for it. Just because trying to make sense of their raw numbers in terms of their splits is really kind of impossible with all the injuries they had last year. And so here's just an interesting one for iuk and this is a small sample size uh came in weeks four through seven but his target per route run rate was only 15 in the games both kiddo and samuel were on the field which is like demir bird greg ward territory um but you compare that to uh his rate from week 10 on when both those guys were out it was was 27%, which was fifth among our receivers. Um, that's like insanely impressive for a rookie. Like rookies don't do that even if they do have teammates injured. Um, so I, I really do think he's a stud. I think in the right situation, he's somebody who could demand a huge target load. Um, but I just don't know if San Francisco is that situation. Um,

and I don't know, I don't want to hold the splits with those guys healthy against them too much. Um, I'm curious what you think about that. Cause it came really early in the season. I mean, those were his third, fourth, fifth and sixth NFL games after no, no preseason. Um, he's clearly going to be more established presence this year, but, fifth, and sixth NFL games after no preseason. He's clearly going to be a more established presence this year. But Kittle is a legitimate target hog. And Samuel has always been targeted at a high rate, too. They're much different targets than the types of targets Iuke is seeing.

But like you said, this is a run-first offense, and I just don't know if there's going to be enough targets to go around. So, yeah, I think in order for IUK to have a special season, there need to be either injuries or Deebo Samuel just needs to have a bad year. At least as a receiver. If they use him in the running game, okay, whatever. But I looked at the last five seasons. Are there any teams that have had a top three tight end?

And there's a big difference between a top three tight end and a top five tight end. Are there any teams that have had a top three tight end and two top 36 wide receivers? And there have been three. None in the last two years. But five years ago, Minnesota. Kyle Rudolph was tight end too. Diggs and Thielen were around 30th.

So that was 2016. They never finished top 24. 2017 was Philadelphia with Ertz, Aguilar, and Jeffrey. 2018 was Philadelphia with Ertz, Aguilar, and Jeffrey. None of the wide receivers

had huge years. None of them had 1,000 yards. Diggs was really good. He only played 13 games. He had 903 yards, three touchdowns. But it doesn't happen that often, and you don't get any top three tight ends with a top 15, let's say, wide receiver unless there are no other good pass catchers, really.

So think Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey. Think last year, Robert Tunyon was tight end three and Devontae Adams and nobody else. So that's kind of the way I'm looking at it. Historically, if you want, at least recent history, if you want Kittle to be a top three tight end and Iyuk to be elite, or let's say top 15, top 20,

you either need some injuries or you need Deebo Samuel to just be like wide receiver 40 or something like that. And also, Kirk Cousins threw for almost 5,000 yards that year. The Eagles had that one year where they threw 38 touchdown passes. You just don't see that from the 49ers.

It's weird. It's like I love the player and I kind of hate the situation. Yeah, I just check and I've got him at wide receiver 31, which seems super low compared to 16 for Dynasty. So yeah, I'm a little bit worried about the ball. But I'll take my chances

because I don't think Kittle and Debo are going to play 16 games each. I think he's going to do better than that if he stays healthy because the other guys won't. And I just think the cream will rise. I think he's a lot better than Debo Samuel. Yeah, that's fair.

I'll take my chances on him bucking that trend a little bit. I'm just low on Debo. I have really no interest in him. On the Emerald Coast? Yeah, I've been there. I've been there. It's Destin, right? Yeah, Destin, Panama City, Pensacola.

The places we should have gone for spring break and never did. Destin's very nice. Here's an email from Corey. Second year, 10-team Superflex Dynasty League. Last year, I made quite a few trades in order to hold the three firsts and three seconds this year in the rookie draft. My two weakest positions are tight end and

quarterback. I have picks 1.1, 1.2, and 1.10 in the first round. So again, he needs quarterback and tight end. Should I go Lawrence and Pitts or should I take Lawrence and Fields and then try to plug and play Troutman or Gasicki at tight end?

The only other quarterback on my roster is Wentz. So he's going to take Lawrence. So the question, I guess, is do you go Fields and Troutman or Gasicki or do you go Wentz and Pitts? I think I would take Pitts.

I think I would go Lawrence and Pitts, but it's close. I mean, that's a toss-up, really. But I think that's who I would lean. I think it's easier to find a Fields-level quarterback in the future or even this year than it is to find somebody like Pitts. Okay. Next question is from Khan.

Dear Webster, Ernest, Curtis, and Haywood. No idea. Oh, these are... I think I know this. These feel like running backs to me. But these also could be like 80s sitcom characters. Okay, I'm going to Google it. Let's get to the question here from Khan.

Yeah, Houston Oilers. Nice. Is it? I think so. I don't recognize any of those. Webster Slaughter. Haywood Jeffries. I don't know.

I don't know. Maybe it's not Oilers. Erd is Bider. All right. We're playing in a three-quarter PPR. That's weird. Three-quarter PPR 10-team league. We can keep one player every year for an additional season only.

You must give up the round selection that you took the player in. What happens if you trade away next year's first round pick to try to win it all, and you want to keep a player that was drafted in the first round that same season? Example, I traded away a first to get Derrick Henry, but he was drafted in a first. What do you do?

So he doesn't have that first round pick. I don't know how he can keep Derrick Henry in the first. Yeah, I guess you could give up your first-round pick the next year. But yeah, I think the more simple answer is you just can't keep Henry. You can't keep a player with a first-round designation if you don't have a first-round pick. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Either way, there definitely should be a rule

and a clear expectation in place. Also, should I keep McCaffrey in the first or Jonathan Taylor in the sixth round? Oh, well then, yeah, it won't even matter because you should keep Jonathan Taylor in the sixth round. Okay. All right, we're going to take a break. In full, oh, it's.75 PPR?

Yeah. I think it depends on what pick I have. Yeah, I guess it's only a 10-person league too. So like having, yeah. McCaffrey is so much better than everyone. He's just so much better than everyone in full PPR. In.75 PPR, he's probably still... If it's the first overall pick, I don't know.

If it's the 10th pick, I'm taking McCaffrey. If it's somewhere in between, I'll let you con decide. I will take a break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, Alex is going to tell us why he thinks Jalen Hurts can win the MVP. We'll be right back. Whether in the game or

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Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Back here on Fantasy Football Today. Here's our email from Alex. Remember, our email address, FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Letter I.

I'm buying into the possibility that Jalen Hurts has a shot at MVP this year because of similarities to Lamar Jackson's MVP season a few years ago and his offense. Lamar had Mark Andrews. Jalen Hurts is Dallas Goddard. We can all say they have similar skill sets. I don't know about that, but we're expecting a huge jump in Goddard's production this year.

Lamar's wide receivers were not relevant as much to his success, with Brown leading the way with 584 yards. Devontae Smith and Rager should absolutely contribute more than that. Lamar had three Pro Bowl linemen in front of him. Jalen Hurts could have three Pro Bowl linemen in front of him

if they're healthy. For the backfield, I know Ingram was off the charts efficient catching the ball and getting touchdowns, but I'd say Sanders is better now than Ingram was at that point in his career. It goes on. Lamar made a huge jump in accuracy. Jalen Hurts should be able to do the same. What do you think about that case for Jalen Hurts?

I think we're reaching with a lot of these comparisons, particularly Goddard to Andrews. I think Andrews is really, really good. He's been one of the most efficient tight ends on a per route basis to play in the last 10 years. I like Dallas Goddard. And I like Jalen Hurts. I think he's a decent long shot to win the MVP, I guess. If you want to place that bet, I don't think it's a bad bet. But I don't know. I don't know about some of these comparisons. What do you think? Well, it's hard to forecast that.

Right. Obviously, they're going to have to be good. And that's the thing. The Ravens were great. They had a great defense. The Eagles could win the division. It wouldn't surprise me at all. I don't think they're going to win 10 games.

I guess they could go 10 and 7. I don't think they're going to win 11 games. Look, what was he on pace for in his four starts, including the Washington game? He was on pace for 20 touchdown passes, but 12 rushing touchdowns and 1,100 rushing yards. So he has almost the same rushing prowess as a starter as Lamar Jackson.

He's got Devontae Smith. Lamar Jackson hasn't had that. Even I don't know how good Devontae Smith's going to be, but I'm comfortable saying that Lamar Jackson hasn't had that. I do see some interesting comparisons. In fact, I know somewhere, yeah. So his completion percentage was terrible last year, Jalen Hurts. But his yards per attempt was very similar to Kyler Murray's

and Lamar Jackson's as rookies. I'm really excited for Hurts. I've been taking him in fantasy pretty often in that round 7-8 range. But like you said, I think there's a big difference between Philadelphia and Baltimore. That's going to be important for MVP. From a fantasy standpoint, I do think there are similarities between the two

going into their second years. Jackson didn't really blow the doors off in his, I believe he made eight starts, maybe nine starts as a rookie. Then as a second-year guy, he obviously crushed it. That rushing potential is what it's all about okay this email is from Tyrell

dear Snake, Wyatt Cash and Steve Stronghold I don't know who Steve Stronghold is but I know these are Kurt Russell characters oh oh yeah

right because he played Wyatt Earp yeah I don't know about Steve Stronghold Russell characters. Oh, uh, I know. Yeah. Right. Cause he, he played Wyatt Earp. Yeah. I don't know about Steve Stronghold either, but that's cool. Who the hell is Steve Stronghold? I don't,

I can't back up this research from Tyrell, but we're going to assume he's right. Amateur research shows that only four wide receivers have had multiple seasons of 1200 plus yards before the age of 24. Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and DJ Moore. I've heard DJ Moore labeled as a sleeper or a bounce-back candidate. Isn't he due for touchdown regression?

Is everyone worried about his new quarterback? What's up with DJ Moore, dude? I think DJ Moore is being undervalued. Read that list again and reflect on those names. Randy Moss, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and DJ Moore. According to Tyrell, the only players who have had multiple seasons of 1,200 plus yards before the age of 24. What's up with DJ Moore, dude? Yeah, I mean, his ADP since May 1st on NFC is 55th overall.

Just before Adam Thielen, just before Cooper Cup, just after Deontay Johnson. I mean, so we talked about touchdown dependency rate on a podcast recently, and Moore was really low. He wasn't quite as low as Robbie Anderson, who had the absolute lowest among qualified receivers, but he had the sixth lowest in 2020. So just 11 percent of his

fantasy points came from touchdowns and it was actually lower than that in 2019 it was 10 percent there definitely are like indicators that suggest he should score more touchdowns and generally i like to bet on good players uh who seem to have had bad luck with variance and i think more definitely fits that profile but he just doesn't he hasn't even really had opportunities to score touchdowns so last year he was 25th in end zone targets um he scored exactly zero touchdowns on his 10 end zone targets and in 2019 he was 55th he only had six ends on targets um and so it's it's i, he's done the most he can. He's scoring touchdowns from outside of the red zone. But yeah, I mean, quarterback play has been an issue.

I don't know if it's going to improve in 2021. I love more as a talent. I think I'm higher than most on him. He's my wide receiver, 11 for dynasty, wide receiver 17 for this year, but I don't feel safe reaching for him. Assuming that more touchdowns are coming. I say it a lot with DJ Moore. He's over the last two seasons. He has about 25% of his team's touchdowns, but they've only thrown,

they've only thrown 33. Yeah. And that's terrible in two seasons. And I don't know that Sam Darnold is going to fix that problem. So if they had thrown 30 and he had seven or eight of them, that's a huge jump in 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns. That's a third-round pick, I'd say. But, you know, it's just the reality of the situation.

He doesn't get a lot of red zone, green zone, end zone targets and they don't throw a lot of touchdowns. Alright, from Eric Whedon from just outside of Denver. You were just in Denver. What's just outside of Denver? There's lots of nice old places. Broomfield, that's a good place. Yeah, there's lots of stuff outside Denver.

Hey, Jimmy, Gerard and Alfred. Yeah, tough ones today. Jimmy, Gerard, and Alfred. Yeah, tough ones today. Jimmy, Gerard, and Alfred. By the way, Steve Stronghold is some weird superhero in The Commander, which is a Disney show. I don't know it. All right, here's the question.

As Google does some work. Oh, Jimmy Butler. These are butlers. These are butlers. Jimmy Butler, Gerard Butler, and Alfred the Butler. Good stuff. Wow. All right, I need help

with who to keep in a $100 salary cap league. It is non-PPR, three receivers, and two flex, and only one running back. Interesting. Okay, so non-PPR, but three receivers, one running back, two so non-ppr but three receivers one running back

two flex i can keep all of these guys guys for two more seasons i can keep up to four for um but a twenty dollar total so okay i guess that's his cap only twenty dollars you've got calvin ridley for 17 bucks out of a hundred you've got you've got jonathan tay for $17 out of $100. You've got Jonathan Taylor at $14. Akers at $11. Tannehill at $3. Jonu Smith at $3. Tunyon for $1. Edmonds for $1.

James Robinson for $1. That's interesting. So it's only one running back, but with it being non-PPR, three wide receivers and two flex it might as well just be three running backs like what's the chance you're starting a fourth wide receiver at the flex in a non-ppr i i guess it depends but like at first i was it has to be jonathan taylor i mean let's start with it yeah taylor for sure yeah yeah. Yeah, I think Taylor, Tannehill, Edmonds, and then Tanniner, Robinson probably.

I'd go Robinson. Yeah, I'd go Robinson. Yeah. It's a non-PPR league. I don't think he's going to catch a lot of passes, but he could be their touchdown guy. So, yeah, I like that. So, yeah, Taylor, Tannehill, Edmonds, Robinson.

I like it. Yeah. All right, this is from Kevin. Heath made a comment about how discussing player upside is often thrown out to express a reason for liking someone when they don't have a reason for liking someone. And that reminded me of another nebulous description I hear a lot, calling someone a potential star. I feel like these labels get thrown out to the point where they have become meaningless. It's like the fantasy equivalent of saying every player is in the best shape of his life unfortunately it probably

isn't practical to try and quantify the percentage chance that these players achieve results to match the generic descriptors okay he doesn't like it when people say he's a potential star what do you think i guess i get what he's saying but i mean certain players do have you know ranges of outcomes that are unique to them that are affected by variables that we can somewhat predictably perceive going into the season you know I uh so yeah I think some players do have more upside than others for example players in high pace high scoring offenses simply have a higher probability of you know producing an RB1 or wide receiver one finish than low volume offenses. DJ Moore is a great example. We just talked about him. Uh, we can feel fairly confident in saying that like he and Robbie Anderson have

lower ceilings than Amari Cooper and CD lamb, you know, just because the offenses they play in. Um, I don't know that he means, I don't know that Kevin means potential fantasy star you know like last year I would have said that Miles Sanders is a potential star yeah I guess I was addressing upside more than potential star but I think that you would say that Brandon Ayuk is a potential star

and the underlying numbers that you look at have suggested that yeah yeah for sure yeah so I don't think we could say Kyle Pitts is a potential star and people I look at have suggested that. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, so we could say Kyle Pitts is a potential star. I don't agree with you, Kevin, but I respect your opinion.

A couple more here from Zach. My buddy offered me Julio Jones and Zeke for A.J. Brown and Jamal Williams in a keeper super flex. Do I take it? I need help at running back. So he would give up A.J. Brown and Jamal Williams in a keeper super flex. Do I take it? I need help at running back. So he would give up A.J. Brown and Jamal Williams, and he would get Julio Jones and Zeke.

So it's hard to say for sure without knowing the rules of the keeper league, but being keeper and not dynasty, I would think that this is a trade you would do, yeah. You would take the Zeke and Julio side? I think so, and I'm super high on A.J. Brown You would take the Zeke and Julio side? I think so. And I'm super high on AJ Brown,

but I think Zeke set up for a really big year. Yeah, I think I would do that. Especially if you need to sell for running back, like you said. I would do it too. And our last question is from Andrew in Roanoke, Virginia. He says, subject line, super flex QB value, Daniel Jones. And then he says, full transparency,

I only put Daniel Jones in the subject line to get your attention. It worked. It did. Is quarterback or running back more valuable in a Superflex league? 12-team PPR Superflex. I have the number one pick and can keep this guy for three years.

Do you go with McCaffrey or Mahomes? I mean, I'm one of the biggest Chiefs homers out there, but I would still take McCaffrey, number one. The three years thing kind of put a wrench in that for me because if it was just a one-year redraft league, I'm definitely going McCaffrey. Do you feel differently in a keeper format? Mahomes certainly has a safer...

I could definitely see McCaffrey, as long as he stays healthy, he should certainly have three more great years in him. He's not old. But Mahomes is definitely a safer bet over the next three years. Yeah, that's a good point.

I'm glad you brought that up because I think I overlooked it. Yeah, I think you could go with either one, honestly, at that point. I would be fine taking Mahomes. I was surprised in our Superflex League the other day,

you took Dalvin over Mahomes. Is that right? I never take the number one quarterback over the truly elite running backs in Superflex. Yeah. And would that change for you, you think, with three years in mind? Yes.

Mahomes would be my first pick with three-year keeper scenario. Yeah, I think that's fair. And Kyler would probably be my first pick with three-year keeper scenario. Yeah, I think that's fair. And Kyler would probably be my second pick, then Allen, something like that. I think I'd value the quarterbacks a lot more in that dynasty-ish scenario. But redraft, I still go with the elite running backs first, personally. Adam, if it was two years, how would that change it? Is that the line for you?

I don't need that right now. One in three years. I'm not Jamie. I'm not Dave. I'm not Heath. I'm not Chris. Don't put... No.

Two years, I'd go McCaffrey. Yeah, that's the line. The jump from two to three years is a big deal. Thanks, Shrags. Hey, Jacob, thanks for coming on, buddy. Heck yeah. Anytime. Thanks for having me on. It was fun. Good stuff. Thank you all

for listening. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you Monday on FFT and 5 and FFT. We'll talk to you Tuesday night, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Get Paramount Plus. Watch HQ. Get on Sportsline. Read all of Jacob's great content. And see you later, everybody.