Fantasy Football Today - Mailbag! Best Advanced Metrics, Player Comps, Consistent Players and More (07/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:01:21 Let's go everyone, it's mailbag time. And it feels like Friday. I woke up and I thought it was Friday today. So happy Friday everybody. I'm just Thursday, July 3rd. Dan Schneier is here. What are your 4th of July plans, Dan? Fourth of July plans start with a round of golf in the morning. Can't wait for that. And then a barbecue in the afternoon. So I'm very excited about that. And Dave? Hi. What are your 4 Fourth of July plans?

Starting point is 00:01:47 I don't know. Oh, come on. They'll figure them out. I don't know. Well, I'm gonna be nice and neat and organized. Like Dan, I got a wife, I got kids, I got a dog. Okay, fill in the blank. If there's one thing I need in my life on Fourth of July, it is blank. One thing I need in my life on 4th of July, it is blank. Liam Cohen cut ups on play action passes.

Starting point is 00:02:12 You're so, you know, you don't, you better not work a single second tomorrow, Dave, just to be sure that we were guaranteeing you. I will be right here. Anybody needs me. Give me a call. You're going to be in the office on a show. Oh, give me a break. All'll be ready to go home. You're gonna be in the office? The only one. On a show. Oh, give me a break.

Starting point is 00:02:27 All right, Dan, how about you fill in the blank? Have fun. That's good. I think it's just a cheeseburger. I think a good cheeseburger with nothing on it. Pickles, ketchup, cheese, that's it. Pickles. That's like a regular Wednesday for me.

Starting point is 00:02:39 Yeah. Well, I also eat a hot dog and I rarely eat hot dogs. I eat dogs about like, well, my dog intake has actually gone up by like six, six to 10 per year, unfortunately. I was at like one on 4th of July only. And now it's a good, it's a good, when you make the turn in golf

Starting point is 00:02:56 from going from ninth hole to the 10th hole, it's good to get a dog on a golf course. It really is. So my dog intake has definitely gone up sadly, but dog for dogs, I have strict rules. Mustard's good. Crout is good. I like mustard, red onions and relish.

Starting point is 00:03:09 But anyone who puts ketchup on a dog is just, what are they doing? What are they doing? Actually, I don't put anything. I don't put anything. I just eat them. I just eat the hot dog. No, you, Adam, you are exactly the person

Starting point is 00:03:21 that puts ketchup on a hot dog. I used to, but no, I don't anymore. I just have the hot dog. And that is the one thing that I need on 4th of July. It is hot dog day. It's a dog, yeah. And by the way, I can't believe you didn't make any comment about my US Open 2023.

Starting point is 00:03:33 As you know, Prop Joe once said to Avon Barksdale on the mean streets of Baltimore, you gotta look the part, be the part. Mother something, and I won't fill in that blank, but some can figure that out. And it's okay, it's a family show, but it some can figure that out and it's okay it's a family show but it didn't say anything and it's kind of just if you get it you get it you know you know if you've seen the show Adam has never seen The Wire sadly so he wouldn't even understand

Starting point is 00:03:53 that quote or who Prop Joe is of course that what you just said is not true I have seen The Wire I watched five episodes it was extremely boring and then I stopped watching it okay so just real quick before we get into our emails, today's mailbag show, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com, that is the letter I, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We're also reading your Apple podcast questions, and I'll tell you about the mailbag we're doing next week where you can pay $50 donated to St. Jude

Starting point is 00:04:19 to have your question read on the air. We'll talk a little bit more about Draftathon in about 10 minutes or so. An important correction from yesterday's show, ooh boy, embarrassing. And nobody called me out on it. I said that Darren Waller didn't have a lot of tread on his tires. And what I meant by that was he didn't have a lot of usage basically for a 32-year-old. But I was corrected by a very much smarter than me listener who said, when you don't have a lot of tread on the tires, it actually means you're completely worn down and you need new tires. So I, I, Wait a second. I've been using that for my whole life to describe football players. Is

Starting point is 00:04:53 that just been wrong the entire time? I think so. I think we've been wrong. A lot of people get this wrong then. No, if you don't have tread, that means the tire is bald. Right. It means you've been you're over worn. You've worn down. No, it's you have tread on the tire. Plenty of tread left on the tire. That tread is a good thing. Tread is a good thing. Yeah, we've been using that wrong the entire time. Yeah, you guys have. I think not just we like the entire telling you that wrong. I think so. I think a lot of people are wrong on that. So there now, there you go. Talk about it at the water cooler. All right, our first email comes from Pete from Seattle. And he has a subject player comps.

Starting point is 00:05:31 I couldn't help but think of these two comps, not saying they are literally going to be these players, but the scenarios are similar. JJ McCarthy to Patrick Mahomes. Both guys sat year one behind very competent quarterbacks. Both have elite offensive weapons and a coach and an elite coach. Both NFL draft pick number 10.

Starting point is 00:05:53 So that's his one comp. And actually Mahomes in college in his last year, this is from me, he threw for 5,052 yards and 41 touchdowns. McCarthy threw for 2,991 and 22 touchdowns, but actually averaged significantly more yards per attempt than Mahomes. He just didn't throw that much. He averaged nine yards per attempt. Mahomes, 8.5 yards per time. So that is comp number one. McCarthy to Mahomes. The second one is cup to Larry Fitzgerald. This is a great one. Both had fall offs at age 31, leading

Starting point is 00:06:27 people to believe that age has got to them. And then Larry Fitzgerald went on to have three more thousand yard seasons at ages 32, 33 and 34. And in those seasons, I'll tell you he finished as he was much better in PPR than non PPR. But let's just give I'll give you half PPR Larry Fitzgerald at ages 32 through 34 Wide receiver 13 per game 12 per game and 9 per game in half PPR. So Dave, which comp do you like better my homes to McCarthy or cup to Fitzgerald? I don't like either one of them in the case of cup to Fitzgerald, I don't remember Larry Fitzgerald having a series of injuries that robbed him of his athleticism and ultimately got him cut from one team and

Starting point is 00:07:14 signed to another where he'll play theoretically a lesser role. So the fall off for Cup, I think has more to do with the injuries he had rather than getting old. Now you might say, well, when you get older You're more susceptible to injuries. You don't you have lost a lot of tread on your tire in that case might be right But I I don't see Cooper Cup Having the type of rebound to his career that Larry Fitzgerald had I'm not even sure Cooper Cup will be playing football next year So this this is one that I just don't get behind. Could JJ McCarthy be the next Patrick Mahomes?

Starting point is 00:07:50 No. Listen, he's right about some of the things. The elite offensive weapons. Are we really ready to say that Kevin O'Connell is an elite coach? Maybe not, but we have seen KOC do a good job with Kirk Cousins, with Sam Darnold, really took both of their games to the next level, could easily do that with JJ McCarthy. I pushed back on JJ McCarthy sitting for a year. He had to sit for a year.

Starting point is 00:08:14 He had an injury that he had to come back from. I would imagine that if Sam Darnold got off to a slower starter or a sluggish start, we would have seen JJ McCarthy as a rookie play and maybe even play very well for the Minnesota Vikings. Ultimately, I think McCarthy could potentially be a top 12 quarterback, but to go and be like the number one QB like Mahomes was once upon a time, no, I don't think that's happening. I actually really like the cup Fitzgerald comparison because Fitzgerald at age 31, he had a bad year. He had 103 targets and turned that into 784 yards.

Starting point is 00:08:50 It's horrible. But he had bad quarterback play. Carson Palmer got hurt. So it was Carson Palmer, but it was also mostly Drew Stanton and also a little bit of Ryan Lindley. 2015, he's 32 years old. And like I said, he's 13th per game in full PPR. He actually had a very good year.

Starting point is 00:09:06 His 13th in yards per outrun that year, 1,215 yards on 109 targets. But 2016 and 17, he basically just PPR'd his way to success, kind of like Jalen Waddle's rookie year. But he just earned- Yes, I remember that year. Where he just PPR'd his way. Yeah, he earned a lot of targets.

Starting point is 00:09:22 He earned 146 or more targets in all three of those seasons. But I think the point I'd like to make, and I've made this before, with Larry Fitzgerald and with Julian Edelman, primarily slot guys. At that point in his career, Fitzgerald had been a heavy slot guy. He was no longer this dynamic playmaker on the outside or even on the inside.

Starting point is 00:09:43 They still earned a lot of targets and they still put up really big numbers. And it made me think that guys like that who just win in the slot, maybe age better than explosive outside receivers. And that's what cup has become is this. I think a big factor in cups, significance and fantasy football has been a combination of one being in Sean McVeigh system and how he utilizes him and two having the rapport with

Starting point is 00:10:07 Matthew Stafford that he had he loses both of those things maybe the Clint Kubiak system can PPR his way to relevance I think it's possible it's the only scenario I see happening but I think when I watch that Kubiak system with New Orleans I think Jason has a much better shot of being the guy there that the offense funnels through just given what I saw last year and him with New Orleans, I think Jason has a much better shot of being the guy there that the offense funnels through just given what I saw last year and throughout his coaching career. So I don't get on board with that. The other one I find ludicrous to compare JJ McCarthy and Patrick Holmes. I do. I watched a lot of tape of both of those guys at college.

Starting point is 00:10:38 They're nothing alike from an arm talent standpoint. They're nothing like from really any standpoint as players. So the situations are correct. and one of the things that the listener used to tie them together was that they're both drafted 10th Overall wasn't Christian Ponder drafted like 10th overall. I mean we can't really credit anything when it comes to that now I'm not trying to dismantle it. He's having fun. He's trying to find some stuff and Listen, you're so rude if JJ McCarthy becomes the next Patrick Moe's You're so rude. If JJ McCarthy becomes the next Patrick Mahomes, then yes, you can come back, find me, and obliterate me anywhere you'd like on social media,

Starting point is 00:11:10 whatever you'd like to do. But I will take a hard stand, hard line to stand there. Well, listen, you can do all those things even if JJ McCarthy doesn't become Mahomes. Last thing about the Fitzgerald Cup thing, you're right about the JSN factor. The best wide receiver on those teams was John Brown. So Fitzgerald really was the number one guy. In fact, one year

Starting point is 00:11:31 David Johnson was second in receiving it over 800 receiving yards. Next, uh, next emails from FUD. Where's FUD from Dave? FUD is from Eugene, Oregon. He says, Hey Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Ouch. Yeah, I saw that on the rundown too. It's okay. One day. He says, which metric is more important

Starting point is 00:11:52 in terms of predicting fantasy success for wide receivers? Yards per route run or target share? Now I changed this question to target per route run rate because target share, you have to stay healthy. So I looked at the last three years of the leaders in target per route run rate and yards per route run rate. They're both pretty good in terms of predicting who's going to be good, but yards per route run rate is better, I'd have to say.

Starting point is 00:12:19 But this is really a question about advanced metrics, any metrics really that you use to evaluate wide receivers. And Dave, where do you stand on that? Which, what do you like? Dave Korsunsky I think as long as you use them in context, then you'll be okay. Yards per route runs important as long as you know how many routes a certain player is running and using that as information to try and see, uh, using that information along with a dot and target per route run and all that stuff. I mean, usually those things all kind of jive together to paint the picture

Starting point is 00:12:53 that a player is, is doing well and that you can count on that guy to be helpful for fantasy. I like what you did changing target share to target per route run with target per route run, target per route run. You're kind of creating a stat that doesn't, it's not impacted by how many snaps a guy plays. Um, it's literally how often this guy is getting a target based on however many routes he runs.

Starting point is 00:13:19 And of course you're going to still need context for that step, but I like that one personally, myself better than yards per route run, but both are good. I think they're different metrics. Targets per route run, I think does a great job of determining how the individual player is behind, you know, if we're looking under the hood. While targets, that's kind of how he's performing. And that can change based on the system, based on the quarterback and the rapport and all of those factors that go around.

Starting point is 00:13:44 But ultimately, if you're looking for who is succeeding right now and who's playing the best role on your fantasy right now, I think it is actually targets per outrun. I strongly believe that doesn't mean I think that means who's the better player long term and who you can predict year over year, because I know yards for outrun is the way more telling. As far as like if you look at the advanced metrics for people who break the stuff down, that one is more telling year over year. But I think ultimately this game is a volume game. I've said it before, I'll say it a lot.

Starting point is 00:14:10 It's a game of finding players who are on the scoring teams, in my opinion, the high scoring teams that are getting volume, especially as we move more toward most people playing in either half or full PPR leagues. Yeah, there's a look, the lists are going to be pretty similar. Okay. It's hard to be a standout in yards per outrun if you're not a standout in targets per outrun. So right, like you're you need to get targeted. Well, there is Wondell Robinson. He's not a standout in yards per outrun. No, and he might be in targets for our own, but he's definitely not in yards. Right, exactly. And that's the thing when you see a guy who's high in target per out run,

Starting point is 00:14:46 Wondale is 25th in target per out run rate. Like 80 something probably in yards for out run. Probably. Or worse. I'm doing a filter of, he's 69th when you look at guys with 50 or more targets. Yeah, I mean, that's really a Daniel Jones stat, but yeah. Well, yeah, but like Josh Downs.

Starting point is 00:15:05 Josh Downs is interesting. Josh Downs third highest target per out run rate. I actually had to use a filter of minimum of 70 targets to get rid of guys like Deontay Johnson and Adam Mitchell. So I use 70 targets. Josh Downs is third in target per out run rate. So it's Pooka Nakua, Malik Neighbors, Josh Downs,

Starting point is 00:15:24 C.D. Lamb, Drake London, Nico Collins Malik neighbors, Josh Downs, CD Lamb, Drake London, Nico Collins. You see Josh Downs sticks out like a sore thumb. And he's I think 18th in yards per outrun because he gets targeted so much, but he's 66th in yards per target. Yeah. So you love the target per outrun rate, but you got to look at Josh Downs. Oh gosh, if he doesn't get a lot of targets. You know, that's interesting, Adam, because he's been one of the hottest topic names this off season on fantasy Twitter. A lot of targets. You know, that's interesting, Adam, because he's been one of the hottest topic names this off season on fantasy Twitter. A lot of people that I respect are talking about him as probably the best.

Starting point is 00:15:50 They believe the best value in dynasty right now, the player that you should trade for. But when you break it down like that, Adam, how much further because like the idea is, wow, he gets Daniel Jones, the biggest check down artist in the NFL. This is going to explode because he was already third in targets for out route run. So there's not that much more to grow there. And I don't think the yards per route run will rise from 66. I think it'll actually fall. Yards per target was 66. Yards per route run was 18th because he's targeted so much on his route. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, yards per target. Cause I just, Daniel Jones doesn't have a history of making things better for wide receivers. So I don't know about Downs.

Starting point is 00:16:25 I think he's getting a little too inflated. Okay. I probably have to update this because okay, yards per route run for your, oh, forget it. Did you Azerstat this? No, I just, I toggled back between 50 target and 70 target filters. I've got it right in front of me.

Starting point is 00:16:40 What do you want to know? Josh Downs, so do I, Dave. He's 44th out of 59. Whoa. 44th out of 59 wide receivers and yards per target when you look at 70 or more targets. All right. One more email before we get to a break here. This is from a Quinchon Judkins fan.

Starting point is 00:16:59 It's from Zach. He thinks we're sleeping on Quinchon Judkins. He is consistently passed over in discussions of impactful running backs, regardless of rookie status or veterans. We're talking about a guy who was the third running back off the board and in a situation that screams workhorse usage. He doesn't like his competition. He doesn't take it seriously.

Starting point is 00:17:20 And he loves his advanced metrics and his draft capital. So I think Zach has a good point. What are we missing here, Dave, on Quinchaun Judkins? We're missing a potent offense that's going to score a lot of points. Does that matter as a guy we're taking in the sixth round? Well, that's right. So like, first of all, we're already taking him at a pretty decent spot. And I'm taking him ahead of a bunch of other rookies too, especially in non-PPR. And I like him as a talent, but we talked about it during the lead-up to the draft. He doesn't have a ton of explosive plays. He can do it. It's just that he never really did. And he's playing on a Cleveland offense where I don't think anybody's

Starting point is 00:18:00 expecting a lot of points to be scored. Heath did bring up on our show yesterday, we talked a lot about teams that have a lot of volume. Cleveland has been toward the top in plays run. But I don't know if that's going to lead to massive numbers for the running back. It hasn't. Now it's Jerome Ford mostly over the last 2 seasons. And Jerome Ford is just not as talented as Quincyon Judkins. Judkins can be better than that. But can Judkins be, can he be the second-best rookie this year? I mean, I would expect Hampton to be better. And PPR Henderson will probably be better. I'd put him in the same range as Caleb Johnson. And both, and that's not a slight. It just means that it's not somebody that I'm going to take with like a Top 50 pick or anything like that good player will get a good opportunity Browns defense is gonna be competitive

Starting point is 00:18:49 So there will be a bunch of games where I think he can line up and get 15 touches But he's gonna share and I don't know how many touchdowns he'll ultimately get and that's kind of a problem for a guy That's not gonna catch a ton of passes either. So I think around six is solely fine for Quinn John Jenkins but it's not gonna catch a ton of passes either. So I think around six is totally fine for Quin John Juggins. Didn't he also beat up on all the bad competition? That's my, that's the- Yeah, Jacob Gibbs had really good numbers on this.

Starting point is 00:19:12 His numbers against power five conference, or I guess it's six now, power six conference versus the bad teams. He was much, much more effective in every single metric, including raw production versus the bad teams outside the power six conference and really came down a lot versus the power six. That to me could be a little like, that's not a lot of data to work with that sample size is not huge in my mind.

Starting point is 00:19:34 So I'm not as worried about that as I am worried about the things that they broke down. What am I buying here? If I'm drafting him on fan on my, on my draft night on fantasy, I'm buying a back and what I think is a really bad offense that could be really, really bad. As in like we're getting 180 to 200 yards a game, a ton of puns, very few red zone possessions, not guaranteed role in the passing game. He's shown capable, but not necessarily sure the Browns are capable of getting their running back involved in the passing game, depending on who's playing quarterback there.

Starting point is 00:20:01 And an offensive line that at one point during the Stefanski era was dominant, a scheme that was working really well. Some of that in my mind was Nick Chubb's unbelievable mental processing, one of the best processing backs in the NFL that I've seen over the last 10 years. But that line has fallen in recent years. It's not the same, it's still good.

Starting point is 00:20:18 I'd still call it above average, most likely if they stay healthy, but it's not dominant. So I don't know what I'm buying here. Like you mentioned a name, Dave, that I've been consistently drafting over him since the NFL draft happened. It's Caleb Johnson with Caleb Johnson. I'm getting a proven offensive coordinator who is designed to run game. That's very successful and offensive line on the uptick a quarterback.

Starting point is 00:20:37 That's going to be better at moving the ball more and a player in Caleb Johnson, I think is a better fit for that outside zone blocking scheme that Arthur Smith likes to lean on than Quinn Sean Judkins is for Kevin's to fancy scheme. So I'm not, maybe I will think Judkins a little bit better player than Johnson, though I'm not even sold on that. And I'll take a much better situation with Johnson. And I'll take a break in runs of 30 plus yards, over 728 career carries in college. Uh, he was chased down multiple times over three seasons, including by older defensive backs now playing in the NFL, who ran 445 or worse at the scouting combine. All right, I'm gonna take a break here and we'll come back and read more of your emails, your Apple podcast questions and YouTubers.

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Starting point is 00:22:39 and it is having your mailbag questions answered on the air. So we are going to release 10 of these at a time right now to have been purchased $50 per question and all of it goes to St. Jude. I know it sounds crazy, but I have to pay 50 bucks to get my question answered. But the point is make a donation to St. Jude. So it's an obviously an amazing charity. Other things you'll be able to see at some point, FFT open spots. And you'll be able to bid on the rematch Adam and Dan playing tennis that's going to be in mid-August and you can join you can bid on being on sharing a team with us in the FFT league and the winner of the tennis match gets to pick their draft spot and

Starting point is 00:23:19 so we have to do more around it there those details aren't finalized yet as far as what the the stakes are at play here. Yeah, there's going to be high stakes. And I'll say this, if you think notes on Draftathon, it's my favorite time of the year. My most proud moment being part of this company. I would say that it's not just lip service, what Adam just said when it comes to St. Jude. Do some research. It'll take you five seconds on Google.

Starting point is 00:23:41 This is up there for the best charity, if not the best charity in the country. Just look at where all the money is going and look at where what it does, what they do to help children. So it's really good, your money will go to a good place. As far as the match goes, me versus Adam, we have some updates coming on that later. But just know this year, the production will be better won't just be me putting my cell phone up on a cage of a back cage of a tennis court and

Starting point is 00:24:03 hoping that you guys can see it because by the way that cell phone did us no favors Adam it made us look like much worse players with much worse pace on the ball this year we're getting more production and one more final note on the upcoming match before the pod it's unbelievable that this is happening already a month and a half out but Adam is already claiming he's injured whining to me about something that's bothering him before the show today. I'm a little injured. I'm like, Adam, do me a favor, rest up, baby,

Starting point is 00:24:31 because I ain't taking it easy on you when the day comes. Yeah, I got a little bit of an elbow soreness going on here, but. Yeah, there we go. FFT Open, by the way, the teams will be released. You'll be able to bid on FFT Open spots on July 21st, so save that date. Yeah, Dan and I are both

Starting point is 00:24:45 playing tennis today separately. So we are in training mode. Okay, here we go. Guys, I spent a lot of time in those first few emails, intentionally good topics, probably going to have to maybe this one will spend some time on too. And then we'll go a little bit quicker. This is from Matt looking for consistency here. We always look at final stats, point per game, but isn't consistency more important? Do you have any best way to measure this? Chat, GPT could probably do this, but I don't have the time to spot check. Well, I can also do this because I measure this every year. Depending on the position, there's a number that I set as a baseline as far as PPR points goes. And then I just measure how many games a player had

Starting point is 00:25:27 above that threshold, divided by the number of the games they played. And then there's an obvious natural ranking that comes along with it. So I've got the players who are the most consistent and least consistent that you might give a damn about. Name the position and I'll tell you. Yeah, quarterback.

Starting point is 00:25:44 Yeah. All right, so the baseline for quarterback is 22 fantasy points per game. That's in a six point per touchdown league. guys take a guess. Who do you think was the most consistent Lamar Jackson quarterback fantasy last year Lamar Jackson only two games. You are correct, sir. 20. Yeah. He had the most games with 20 some more fans. Can you name who was second? Yeah, I want to guess that because obviously we knew Lamar. I think it might be Jared Goff No, no, Jared Goff was tied for time. Baker Mayfield. That was a terrible. Baker Mayfield was number two. Wow

Starting point is 00:26:16 I know good that he's good at something After that, there's a three-way tie between Josh Allen Jane Daniels and Sam Darnold Keep in mind that this is just the baseline number that we're talking about. It doesn't take fantasy point per game average into consideration. I say that because Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold all tied for third in consistency. But Josh Allen was fourth in fantasy points per game. Jayden Daniels right behind him, Sam Darnold a little bit further behind. But that's the type of thing. Some people care about that. They don't want to just draft a guy. You hear a number, 18 PPR points per game. Well, what good is that number if four of the games are in the high 20s?

Starting point is 00:26:55 And everything else is like 11 points per game. You know, now we're talking about like what we used to say about Tyler Lockett back in the day, where you start him and you hope he has one of those big blow-up games and helps you win your week, but more than often, he's a dud on your roster and you kind of wish that you didn't start him. So consistency is something that matters. I think you guys might be interested to know that Tua was, I'm was the only quarterback who finished 20th or worse in consistency last year. Wow. We could do this from all the other positions or you can come back to me and I'll give you a couple of- Well, wait, wait. Okay. Give me a second here. So, Patrick Mahomes, what? Say that again. He was- go ahead. Patrick Mahomes was 10th in fantasy points per game last year. Again, six point per passing touchdown. He was 20th in consistency.

Starting point is 00:27:48 Yeah, because consistency is reaching 22 points. Right. Well, he barely, he didn't even average that. So of course he's not gonna be high. Like, how could he be high in consistency if he didn't even average? When he's averaging 20.9, sure. Yeah, so that makes sense. But this is what I find amazing about Lamar Jackson. One of the knocks I had on Lamar Jackson was that he was incredibly inconsistent for the four years prior to last season, 2020 to 2023. He scored fewer than 20 fantasy points and six points per pass in touchdown leagues in 43% of his games. That's Lamar Jackson, fewer than 20 fantasy points in 43% of his games from 2020 to 2023.

Starting point is 00:28:26 He did that twice last year. And by comparison, 43% of his games for Lamar Jackson in that same stretch, 21% for Patrick Mahomes, 18% for Josh Allen. They, one out of five games, they would be under 20 fantasy points from 2020 to 2023. Lamar Jackson was nearly half. So he was wildly inconsistent except for

Starting point is 00:28:47 his two unbelievable years where he scored 30 fantasy points per game. I still think that might be in his profile, that inconsistency. So it is interesting that he finished number one because he would not have been number one, I guarantee you, the previous four years. I mean his touchdown rate in the red zone is almost guaranteed to come down. Oh, you're still stealing my stat. This is stat everybody's putting out there. It's so, it's something you need to consider. I mean, anyone who knows anything about fantasy, this is the number one

Starting point is 00:29:17 regression candidate in fantasy. Doesn't mean he still won't fit, couldn't finish one or around there, but he's definitely not someone I'm projecting to finish one. All right. This is from Colin. If you were a wrestler, what would your entry music be? I can't believe Adam's claiming that as he's the one who created that. I gave it on the show yesterday,

Starting point is 00:29:34 it was the stat of the day yesterday. Just yesterday you gave it? Oh, I saw that weeks ago on Twitter. Weeks ago. All right, what would your wrestling entry music be? Oh, I thought you said name. My name would have been Azer's worst nightmare. My intro music.

Starting point is 00:29:50 Good question. This is great. How about I pick a wrestler's theme? No, no, this has got to be unique. Dave, pick your own. And as somebody who doesn't know wrestling very well, besides like old school WWF, which I used to love, because otherwise, yeah, if we were picking a wrestler, I would just pick the stone goal.

Starting point is 00:30:11 Glass break. That's a great one. But I saw that on Twitter three weeks ago. Good call. Yeah, someone just wrote it. I saw that on Twitter 20 years ago. I mean, this, the Mar Jackson regression stat is not Adams. It really is 50% red zone touchdown rate is the highest since at least 2000. Yes, I know it. I saw it two weeks ago.

Starting point is 00:30:31 Yeah, sure. Okay. Anyway, it doesn't seem like you have an answer. So give me enter Sandman. Okay, that's that's pretty good. Dave anything? I would also pick an equally rocking song. I would go with looking for freedom by David Hasselhoff. I take it back. I want down with the sickness by the stirrup just so I can do the oh yeah. That's a good one. I would I would usually people have asked what my baseball walk up music would be and I always say my hero by the Foo Fighters, which

Starting point is 00:31:06 depends where I played, depends where I played. If I played in city field, it would be some by Nas, some of them from his first album from Illmatic. I don't know which one Wasn't asking you, I was in the middle of a story, but for wrestling, I don't think that works. So I would go with a down by Stone Temple pilots. It's like, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do, do's like, dun dun dun, dun dun dun.

Starting point is 00:31:25 It's like, dun dun dun. Yeah. Very heavy one. I only know that from last year when you told me to listen to them. Oh really? Oh nice.

Starting point is 00:31:32 Yeah, they're on my shuffle now. Oh, they're the best. They're good. Can I give him Malik neighbor stat? No. Question for Heath. What? This is from Charles.

Starting point is 00:31:41 Great. Well, he's not on the show. So why don't you filter this out beforehand? Okay. If you're looking, it looks like you're projecting a 20% decline in Bucky Irving's receiving stats this year. Why? I would think his snapshot and workload should grow considering his low usage early last

Starting point is 00:31:56 season. So he's not on the show, but we could talk about what we expect from Bucky Irving's receiving stats, which last year, Dave, were 47 catches, 392 yards on 52 targets. I would hope that he at least maintains that over a 17 game pace, if not gets a little bit more on top of it. Tampa absolutely has to use him more. The stat that just blows my mind about Bucky Irving because he was so good last year is

Starting point is 00:32:23 that he only had three games where he played at least 60% of the snaps. So a lot of these games where he was putting up huge numbers, he's playing like 45% of the snaps, 50% of the snaps. I think they've got to give him a bigger piece of the pie. And if that happens, then by nature, he should be able to still be an effective player, high efficiency playerfficiency player, get a little bit more work, and, you know, be an asset for fantasy managers. He has a great schedule of Grade 2 for this year. It's not like Chase Browns, where he's at the bottom for running backs. And there was something that I read, it was from Todd Bowles, where they asked him to do like, one or two specific things to soft-steel, and I can't remember, it was something about like his foot placement when he got the ball, something like that. Some sort of, I don't know if it was a foot alignment

Starting point is 00:33:14 issue or something else. I got to look for it. But Todd Bowles is like, Yeah, he, he absolutely got better there. And so like little things like that, like, those are the little technique things that fantasy owners, like they don't even, they don't care about that stuff. But that's the thing that coaches care about, that would give a player more opportunities. And opportunities are what we crave in fantasy football. So if Bucky Irving is doing things to earn more opportunities, and we saw what he did last year as a rusher, as a pass catcher, then by all means, he should be able to do outstanding things this year. Okay. I like buck. Yeah, go ahead. I know.

Starting point is 00:33:51 I was just going to say, even when he really took over the backfield beginning in week 16, he had 72 carries the rest of the season compared to 10 for Rashad white. I think that includes a postseason game. Rashad white was still almost the exclusive third down back. So I don't see Bucky gaining that role. So 50 catches for a guy who's not the third down back is still pretty damn good. He's at 47 last year. And if he's cut that, I'll let Heath speak on that. I don't know. But I know why he has it down. He has it down because he is very based on projections and he's putting a bigger piece of the pie for this wide receiver corps core.

Starting point is 00:34:28 And why wouldn't he? Because like Bucca is being added to this wide receiver corps and McMillan could take another step forward in year two. So if everything goes right for the Bucs, they're working through those progressions. They're getting the ball, those receivers not Irving in the passing game. All right, ready? Next question, Dan, I'll give this to you. It's from Tyler. He says, dear Antonio Next question, Dan, I'll give this to you. It's from Tyler.

Starting point is 00:34:45 He says, dear Antonio, Chase, Deontay and Martavis. All Browns. I know all Steelers wide receivers. There you go. We don't have to start a tight end in my redraft league. We start two running backs and three wide receivers slash tight ends. In this format, how high would you draft Bowers or McBride?

Starting point is 00:35:04 Second round or third round? That's a great question because I know a few people are switching toward these leagues. It definitely wouldn't be the first round. I would, is it PPR? Did he mention anything about PPR? I don't know, but that does make a big difference because they both had 111 or 12 catches. Yeah, right. Like it's their whole game.

Starting point is 00:35:29 Last year, I'll give you a little help. Last year, they were wide receiver 17 and 18 per game based on what they did. But remember that was three total touchdowns for McBride, five for Bowers. I don't expect their touchdowns to jump. It may be Bowers by a little. I don't expect my bride's touchdowns. Your bride will have more than three touchdowns. I mean, maybe four or five.

Starting point is 00:35:50 Six. Okay, I'll go over, if you're saying six, I'll go over under six with you. Okay. Okay, for what? No idea. Something. No, no. Dinner in the city. Oh, what? Dinner in the city? Dinner in the city. When will we both be in the city Oh what dinner in the city dinner in the city? When will we both be in the city though? Oh make plans. Hey, you want to go to the city? We'll go and get dinner you owe me just to get dinner though We got to do something I would I'd rather just be like dinner by you and then we play tennis or something You know what I mean? Like we're not going this what are we going to the city for? That's fine with me dinner by me and then tennis sure, okay

Starting point is 00:36:22 No, I'm it's not necessarily you. The tennis at one point, you're going to have to drive. I've been driving. Yeah. Whoever wins the bet, the other person's driving to them for one. Okay. Okay. All right. Anyway, I'll go under six, but yeah, I think the P in PPR, full PPR, I can get on board with like that late to rain late round two range of it's half or, or even standard. They lose a lot of value for me. Cause my whole point, like I would draft these guys because I want the weekly

Starting point is 00:36:48 advantage at the position of tight end, but I'm not getting that weekly advantage. It takes away a lot of the luster for me. All right. Uh, this is from Colin from Dave, the third largest town in Pennsylvania on Saturdays in autumn. Say that again. The third largest town in Pennsylvania on Saturday. in autumn. Say that again? The third largest town in Pennsylvania on Saturday. State college.

Starting point is 00:37:09 Yeah, state college. Wow. He wants, he wants, I'm not gonna read the whole thing, but he wants to take London over Higgins because he thinks London is more consistent and Higgins basically blew up in the fantasy playoffs last year, but on a week by week basis,

Starting point is 00:37:24 he wants the consistency of Drake London. Didn't mention that Drake London scored 40 fantasy goals in week 18, but Dave, who do you like, London or Higgins? I know Dan and I like Higgins. Who do you like, London or Higgins? I think I have London over Higgins in my rankings. I can triple check that, but it's gonna be close between the two of them.

Starting point is 00:37:42 And since I have it open, I've got these consistency rankings. Higgins was ahead of London last year, and that was with Drake London's monstrous game in Week 18. Look, I think it's, if you believe in T. Higgins and you think he can keep up with what he did last year and you can kind of overlook the injury bug with him, then I think you take T. Higgins. If you want

Starting point is 00:38:06 someone a little bit safer, someone who's gonna have a lot of targets, London had more targets per game than T Higgins. It was close between the two of them. But he had a little bit more might have had to do with week 18. I can double check that. Then London's your pick. Okay. All right. Next question is from David in Toronto, Ontario, 12 team half PPR league. I have the second overall pick. Jamar Chase is going first. I will be taking Bijan. What do you think about stacking him with Drake London? Bijan to second overall London, 23rd overall. Yeah. Dave, I'll let you go first on this one. Are you okay with that stack? I don't love it. I would prefer to get, see, this is where I would go T Higgins over Drake London, just to have some diversity and,

Starting point is 00:38:48 and not be so loaded on the Falcons. I don't mind taking B John first. That's great. But getting London to go along with it, I can double check for you how often they both had big games last year was probably pretty frequent because B John had big games almost every week anyway. But I think I would rather go and get a receiver from a different team to try and just spread myself out a little bit. Sponsor Yeah, I looked at the best stacks from the last three years, which is kind of a, not really an easy way to do this, but last three years, a team that had both a running back and a wide receiver finish in the top 12 in PPR overall, not per

Starting point is 00:39:26 game. And where did their teams rank? Finish in points per game. The worst team offensively that had a stack of running back and a wide receiver that finished top 12 in PPR was the 2023 Buccaneers with Rashad White and Mike Evans. These are both like kind of low end top 12 guys and they finished 20th in scoring. Now, Bijan and London were one of these stacks. Last year, they both finished top 12 and they were 17th in scoring. That's the second lowest. So it is possible to have, you know,

Starting point is 00:39:56 some mediocre offense and a top 12 stack. However, you know, what if they're 25th in offense? What if the Penix really stinks? You're going to regret that pick, I think of Drake London. So big time. Yeah. Uh, there were seven games last year where they both had at least 15 PPR points. That's a high number. So maybe it's not a total killer if you decide to go all in on the Falcons, but I would rather, if you're going to stack guys, uh, I'd rather do it from teams that are more potent offensively than the Falcons. I will say one thing, though, going through it, just looking through some of the work you've done this week, Dave, on strength of schedule. And you could find all that, by the way, for those listening on our website, just check out fantasy football, CBS Sports Backslash, Fantasy Football. But I think throughout the NFC South this year, there's going to be some easy games and a very easy schedule

Starting point is 00:40:47 and a very soft look, a lot of soft looks for these two players. So that's working in their favor. The other thing is, Zach Robinson, they run a lot of plays in Atlanta. I like that a lot for fantasy. So they're really pushing the tempo. They're going to do a lot of no huddle and uptempo,

Starting point is 00:41:02 I think, at home with panics to get him comfortable. So those are all the things working in their favor. I think, at home with Penix to get him comfortable. So those are all the things working in their favor. I do think there is the possibility though that look, we don't know how many teams had a top eight grade on Penix. It might have just been Atlanta. Penix last year was electric when throwing outside the numbers, was not electric on some of the routine stuff and some of the timing based rhythm stuff over the middle of the

Starting point is 00:41:22 field that he's going gonna have to get better at or this offense is gonna punt a lot. All right, we're gonna take a quick break. I got one more email to read, then Apple podcast questions, then YouTube questions, then hot dogs. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. This episode is brought to you by Dzone.

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Starting point is 00:42:11 from No Frills with PC Express. Shop online and get $15 in PC optimum points on your first five orders. Shop now at nofrills.ca. All right. I think we just gotta get a nickname for Dan. I think we're gonna call him the plug for Dan. I think we're going to call him the plug because this guy, he plugs things.

Starting point is 00:42:28 He plugs content. Dave, you read his article. I mean, he is a plugger. He just comes on and plugs. Go ahead, go to our site, read our site, donate to Draftathon, help us out. There he is, just say it. Better than the guy that plugs our charity drive

Starting point is 00:42:43 with the wrong URL, Adam. I did not. Oh, I thought you did. How did I do that? And by the way, if you're listening right now, hit the like button, please and leave a comment. Please, we need your help. Just hit the like button. It takes two seconds. Hover your hand over the mouse and just click like that. That's the plug. tiny URL comm slash 2025. Plug God, by the way, if you're going to know, this question is from, ooh,

Starting point is 00:43:08 I don't have a name or a city, Dave. It is Fran from a somewhere in New Orleans. Let's go with a Metairie, Louisiana. Okay. Somewhere in New Orleans. Metairie is a suburb of New Orleans. Oh, okay. Dear Swan Ajax, Cowboy, and Rembrandt. Stop looking at me, Swan.

Starting point is 00:43:29 Oh, you got there at the same time, if not slightly. I got there at the same time, if not slightly before you. But that's not what this is a reference of, apparently. Name that movie, Adam. Okay, I will not name that movie because I am so insulted that you would even ask me to name that movie.

Starting point is 00:43:43 Name that movie. No, not that movie, not stop looking at me, Swan. Name. I got there at the same time as you. We've already done this. That was McGrouper. Yes. But I didn't know you had to remind me of that one. It's one of my favorite run of your references. Those are from the 1979 film, The Warriors. Handcuffing running backs is a strategy that's being used in fantasy. That's been used in fantasy for many years. but is there any value in using the same strategy at wide receiver? Would I handcuff someone like Andre Yoshivas if Chaser Higgins gets hurt, even if it means

Starting point is 00:44:13 taking Yoshivas over a mid-level wide receiver such as Christian Kirk or Rashad Bateman? I have a lot of thoughts on this email, but Dave, you can kick it off. I think it's rare when we find one receiver that it makes sense to handcuff. But I think the very first one this name hit me like a bolt of lightning just now. And Mecca Abouka, who could, who's probably already going to have a role in this Bucks offense to begin with. But if something were to happen to Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, keeping in mind that Evans is significantly older than a typical NFL receiver and Godwin is coming back from injury, Abuka could see huge

Starting point is 00:44:52 target volume. So I love the idea, I love the idea of drafting Abuka anyway. I've got him as a round 10-ish type pick and that could always go up. It will go up if one of those two veteran receivers aren't ready to go for the start of the season. But if I do invest in Mike Evans, in Chris Godwin, I'm looking for a Mecca-Ubuca. I might even go around 9 to get him on my team just to back him up. But it's, it's a very rare situation. I'd have to really think about whether or not I'd want to go with even like, you know, two or three other wide receivers that make sense as handcuff-type players for, for a certain spot. I think it would almost have to be that exact scenario where we know who the two starters are on a certain team, we expect them to be high-volume guys, and yet there's a third receiver who will play alongside them and see a massive uptick in targets if something were to happen to one of the other two guys.

Starting point is 00:45:50 People were saying this is the friendship strategy. No, this is not the friendship strategy. The friendship strategy is you take a guy, you take two players on the same team. They both have value where you took them. So you're not reaching for them. You're not taking a guy like Andre Yoshivas. But if one of them gets hurt, the other one is a boom. Now, I just, thing off the top of my head, you could maybe make that case with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, something like that. But this, handcuffing a wide receiver,

Starting point is 00:46:14 first of all, you got the wrong bangle. The bangle that benefited when Higgins was out was Mike Kosicki. So if you're in a super deep league and you are just like using one of your last picks, maybe it's a best ball league or something like that think about Kosicki Isaiah likely is a tight end handcuff he is an absolute mustad if Mark Andrews were to get hurt I don't know yet this reminds me of Rams remember the Rams

Starting point is 00:46:35 they lost Puka and Cooper Cup at the same time last year we didn't know who to get on waivers turned out really nobody to to at well Jordan Whittington to Marcus Robinson none of them really did anything all that significant, maybe at well, if, if anyone. So no, I don't think handcuffing wide receivers is a good idea. But I handcuff quarterbacks, but I don't handcuff them with their, their backup. I handcuff them with just a backup quarterback because that's people. Oh, why do you drive so many court? Why do you drive back up quarterback? You've Joe burrow.

Starting point is 00:47:05 What if Joe burrow gets hurt? I'd rather take voices that who's that? Whose voice are you? Jamie's voice again. I don't know. I mean, it's just like trying to like my Patrick from SpongeBob actually. But anyway, Jamie, is that what you said?

Starting point is 00:47:17 Jamie always criticizes me for taking backup quarterbacks. But that's not his voice. Okay. I can share two other receivers that might fit into this. Go ahead. Late round guys that you can pick. One is Darius Slayton, who is probably going to have a role on your team's Giants. Sir. Anyway, but we saw last year when neighbors went out, who was

Starting point is 00:47:40 the guy that got the most work? It was like, yeah, no I'm wrong. Yeah, no, it was. It's actually a pretty good call. He's pretty good, if I remember. And in Kansas City, Hollywood Brown isn't expected to be a high-target volume earner. I swear, I talk for a living. A high-target volume earner to begin the year. But if Rice misses time, if Worthy isn't as good, if Kelsey gets hurt, Brown's going to see more playing time. So there you go. You got three wide receivers that you could handcuff if you so chose. All right. Time for some Apple podcast questions. First of all, Dan, what's your favorite type of Apple? Good question. There's only one right answer.

Starting point is 00:48:29 Wow. This is a great question. I think it might be Fuji apple, a Fuji apple. You guys ever had those? Yeah. Dave, what's the right answer? The right answer is Honeycrisp. I was going Honeycrisp. Have you guys had a pink lady? You know what? good lady's good I think later good honey crisp is the best Dave. You're right. Those big the bigger ones you're talking about Yes, it could be a meal those big honey. Chris for me a light snack

Starting point is 00:48:53 I actually think Dave is right. There is only one right answer now. Let me ask a more commonly, you know What do you guys prefer a nice Granny Smith or just a classic red apple? I feel like I'm in the old folks home. Classic red. But I'm basically pink. Like the sour Granny Smith over the classic red. I'm pink lady or nothing. Pink lady. Yeah. I'd rather go the mix like the, you know, the hybrids. Um, I also, I've been kind of fascinated and we'll do this at the very end of the show. Okay. I went to the grocery store last week and I went on a fruit frenzy. I bought 11 different kinds of fruit.

Starting point is 00:49:31 Which was definitely a wreck. We ate almost all of it. Like this is a great season for fruit. So I wanna see how many Dan can name later. And you bought out of the 11? I'll give you maybe three wrong guesses. If Dave wants to play, he can play too. But I wanna see how many you can name. All right.

Starting point is 00:49:45 Apple podcast questions. This one is from Jacob Paulbo. Can you talk about keeper strategy of value versus best player, regardless of round? Does it change based on format PPR versus half PPR, 10 team versus 12 team three receiver? The Dave. Yeah. What strategy of value versus best player? Sure. So format obviously matters and how long you can keep a player for also matters. Not all keeper leagues are built the same way. Some leagues you keep a player, you don't lose a draft pick. Some leagues you keep a player, you lose your first draft pick, or you keep a player and you lose the round that you took that

Starting point is 00:50:17 player in last year. It can even get more complicated than that. But you just have to evaluate how long you can keep a player for and or how much it will cost you when you make these decisions. And that's really it. And if there's a close call, you probably lean toward the guy that you can keep longer. Yeah. Okay. But let's say it's not that, right? So let's say it's, I have, can keep Bijon Robinson in the first or chase Brown in the eighth, you know, we get a lot of things. You're keeping chase Brown in the eighth. Okay. What if it's Bijan in the second or chase Brown in the eighth? Then it's probably Bijan.

Starting point is 00:50:51 You want to get at least some good value out of, out of your keeper, if you can help it. I think in the shallower leagues, I'm probably less concerned about the round and more into the best available best player. That doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the round and more into the best available, best player. That doesn't mean I'm not concerned about the round, but the round value matters more. I don't want to come away. Make sure you can draft a stud. Think about who's going to be kept and where your position is in the draft.

Starting point is 00:51:19 If you can't draft a stud, then keep a stud. Keep a stud. All right. From Todd, 18, 19, Dear Ricky, Julian, Bubbles and Randers. By the way, by the way, we answer a ton of those keeper questions all off season and pre-season long. So if you have those types of questions,

Starting point is 00:51:37 don't say that. Reach out to us and we'll answer them. You could maybe, I'm not gonna do it on the air so much, maybe via email, but the time for those questions is somewhat done. Email, X, somewhere blue sky where we're around or you can pay 50 bucks and do the St. Jude donation. All right. Dear Ricky, Julian, bubbles and Randers.

Starting point is 00:51:55 That is that park. What is it? The trailer trailer trailer part boys. Yeah. 10 team PPR keeper league. Oh, here we go. Do I keep a Chan in the third or Jayden Daniels in the ninth in a 10 team keeper league? There you go. Tough.

Starting point is 00:52:14 It is tough. And so like my very first question will be how long can you keep these guys? Yeah. Because if I can keep Jayden Daniels in the ninth round for the entire career, like I will sign up for that over a year. Especially if they're only going up like around a year, which some leagues do. Right. Same thing. But what if it's for only one year after this, you lose both. They go right back to the player pool, no matter what.

Starting point is 00:52:38 I'm going HM. Then I'm going HM. Yeah, then it's HM. But if you're playing long term, it's Daniels. Right. And so like I look at this and, and I see both players, they're great values. They're both great values. Devon HN in round three, everybody would take that. He's around one pick.

Starting point is 00:52:53 Jane Daniels is going to be like around two round three pick and you're getting him in around nine. So I'm not just going to lean toward Daniels because there's a bigger gap between where he, he, where his ADP is and where you can keep them. But they're, they're both awesome deals. And so if it's just for one year, maybe even for only two years, I think a Chan is the right answer. But longer than that, it's Daniels.

Starting point is 00:53:14 Grant says Dear Harry Conrad, Kevin and Eddie. Harry Conrad, Kevin. So I just had to look it up. This is mob lander, which is high on the list of shows. I've heard this I have to watch it up. This is Moblander, which is high on the list of shows. I've heard this. I have to watch the show. This is like the fourth. It's like, and it's Paramount Plus. So we have the plug. The plug is back. Plug God. Plug God. Thank you. Thank you. All right. Of all the five fantasy podcasts I listen to daily, this one is by far the best. Thank you. Yes, let's go.

Starting point is 00:53:46 I agree. I'm already keeping just the plugs. And this are plug another podcast. I'm already keeping Justin Fields for an 18th round pick and St. Brown for a 16th round pick. This is a 10 team, half PPR Super Flex League. So I have two more. Drake London in the 13th, Chase Brown in the 11th, Kyler in the 10th,

Starting point is 00:54:07 or neighbors in the fourth. Oh. Kyler's easy, right? We gotta go Kyler. In the 10th round of a Superflex League? It's a 10 team league though. I know, but. You can, you can,

Starting point is 00:54:21 quarterback, there's not as much pressure in a 10 team or compared to a 12 or larger. I wouldn't say it's, it is. And I mean the value of how do you pass on Drake London in the 13th? No, I wouldn't. I would do Drake London. You can't, you cannot. I would take neighbors over Kyler for sure.

Starting point is 00:54:40 Neighbors in the fourth versus Kyler in the 10th in a super flex. Do you have to keep fields in the 18th? I would Are we sure he's gonna be a thing next year if you're getting Quarterbacks like fields and Kyler and 18th and 10th of keeper leagues It means this super lex league is devaluing quarterbacks the fact that this is even possible That's no way that's what fields wasn't even a starter last well He was what Kyler was How do you get him in

Starting point is 00:55:05 the tent? Right, right, right, right, right. When did Kyler go 10th or later in his life? I guess he was injured that one year coming. He was coming back last year off the injury or whatever, but like two years ago. I'm sticking with Kyler in London. What's your answer? Neighbors in London for me. Neighbors, Kyler, London, St. Brown. Okay. Throwing back Judson Fields, you can readdraft., St. Brown. Okay. Throwing back Justin Fields, you can redraft. I can do it.

Starting point is 00:55:26 It'll be a lot higher, but I draft somebody else. It's fields are Murray for me. I'll go with fields. He's going to play all season. He's going to score more than Kyler. Wake up 23 says grade this dynasty trade PPR one quarterback league. This is a tough one here. I give up Breeze hall, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin and a 2026 first round

Starting point is 00:55:49 pick. Well, that's a lot. What are you getting? Lockbuster Breeze hall, DJ Moore, McLaurin and a 2026 first for Christian McCaffrey and Malik neighbors. Oh, I have Isaac Arendo on my bench. If I have Isaac Arendo on my bench. If, I mean, Neighbors is cool to get, but you gave up a lot. What was it again?

Starting point is 00:56:11 It was Breese, what else? Breese, DJ Moore, McLaurin, and a 2026 first from the Caffrey and Neighbors. My thought was I would do this for a 2026 second. The first- Yeah, you're not gonna get it done for that. Well, apparently not. The man who's got Neigh is going to value him.

Starting point is 00:56:28 Like one of the, I mean, how much more McCaffrey do we have one, one or two years on my shoe. So it's a lot like just neighbors for all of that. And then a little, right. That's kind of the way that I would look at it too. I don't know. It's a lot. I still think I would do it though

Starting point is 00:56:46 If I'm playing to win now, clearly he's playing to win now giving up the first round pick in the future Very close. Give it a see All right, YouTube Here we go. What do we got? What are your questions here? Happy fourth YouTube Kyron Williams or Lamar Jackson. Well, ma, like who would I rather draft go to dinner with? No, Kyra and I would never draft Lamar is Kyron is going to get picked before Lamar. I do not want Kyron this year.

Starting point is 00:57:19 Yeah. I'm, I'm falling out of love with him too. I think he's fine. Probably never just still just rushing for over 500 yards. He's probably gonna be around a top 12 guy. And if Marvin Harrison takes a big step, then there's some upstairs upside there, but I'm not just- Wait, what?

Starting point is 00:57:36 What does Marvin have to do? Oh, I'm sorry. I'm going Kyler. Kyron versus Lamar. I'm gonna take Lamar over Kyler. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know what? I'll take Lamar over Kyler. Kyron versus the, I'll take, I, I'm going to take Lamar over Kyler. Yeah. Yeah. No, I'll take Lamar over. I was trying to make a, I was, I'll take, I'll take more over Kyler. Yeah. I was trying to make a joke. I was trying to make a joke at the, yeah, yeah, that'll do. Yeah. That'll do that. Yes. I know

Starting point is 00:58:01 that I was trying to make a joke at Dan's expense and I lost track of the show. Okay, this is a good question. Do you guys buy the hype ETN is actually being given the chance to remain RB1 in Jacksonville? No, I don't think Teng Spiggy was a better runner last year. I think Teng Spiggy was better yards after contact, yards before contact. But I do think ETN was playing through an injury last year. So the question is, is that the reason why his advanced numbers were so down and why he looked like the worst back out there,

Starting point is 00:58:33 by far to me than Bigsby. And that's gonna be something I have to wait to see, I guess, in the preseason. And honestly, sadly, the regular season to really get a good feel for it, most likely. Because ETN at one point in his career, before last year, in Clemson, he was top three enforcement tackle rate and Adam, you went over this in his first couple

Starting point is 00:58:50 years of the Jags, he was really good enforcement stacker, he was a good runner at one point, he wasn't last year. I like pigs bees profile better. Either way, it's enough for me to believe that no, ETM won't be this clear cut RB one, especially when you put into it into the mix, Alan, I've heard might take third downs because he's the best pass blocker on the team already. Like there's just a lot of backs. There's four backs. They're all going to make the roster. They drafted two of them this year. It's not a situation I love.

Starting point is 00:59:19 And you want to find the guy in Jacksonville because you watch Liam Cohen, right? Second Liam Cohen reference of the show, by the way, you watch Liam Cohen and how he designed plays for Tampa last year. And it's, it's, it's good stuff, like uses a ton of misdirection, not just on pass plays, but run plays as well, opened up space because the linebackers are out of position. It's definitely part of the reason why Bucky ended up being so good in the second half of last season Because he was schemed up really well and now Liam Cohen is in Jacksonville and he's gonna be able to do a lot of those similar things with his running backs there But Dan, I think you nailed it. I think that we're going to see

Starting point is 00:59:59 Different running backs at different times step up and have big games for Jacksonville And I don't think there's going to be many sticky, you know, anything more than like maybe two games in a row, three games in a row. I don't think there's going to be a stud running back that comes out of Jacksonville. You want to take one of these guys and put them on your bench. That's fine. ETN is the one I have the rank the highest. He's barely a top 100 player for me.

Starting point is 01:00:21 Bigsby definitely had the efficiency in his favor. Toon is a fumble away from being on the bench for like six weeks. So I'm next. I wouldn't be surprised if it's one of Travis or tank, but I don't think you'll ever feel super confident starting either one of them. Next question is from Johnny airport, bake burger or hot dog with ketchup. Good question. Do I get to make the burger anyway I want? For example, if I can make a burger, that's not just, you know, no, grab a burger

Starting point is 01:00:50 because yeah, because if I'm well, that's the thing, because if I'm making the burger, he's just taking like ground beef. He's just like kind of making a crappy patty out of it and just like plopping it in an oven. It dries it out.

Starting point is 01:01:00 But if I can mix it with breadcrumbs and egg and stuff to really like juice it up, it needs this to think egg. You and eggs. Well, yeah, I can mix it with bread crumbs and egg and stuff to really like juice it up, it needs– this is the thing. Evan Brand Oh, yeah. I love eggs. Dr. Justin Marchegiani Oh, he's back with eggs. Evan Brand Eggs are superfood. You have no idea. But uhm– you really don't. But as far as the burgers go, like if you're gonna bake a burger, you're gonna dry it out. You're ruining the burger.

Starting point is 01:01:17 Dr. Justin Marchegiani Yeah. No, we know this. Just answer the question. Bake burgers or hot dog with ketchup? You don't have to rip– I don't do baked burgers anymore. They suck, okay? I'm– I'm over it. Evan Brand Oh, you're stop doing it. You admitted it. Dr. Justin Marchegiani I air fry everything, okay? Baked burger or hot dog with ketchup. You don't have to rip big. I don't do baked burgers anymore. They suck. Okay. I'm over it. Yeah. I air fry everything. Okay. Baked burger or hot dog with ketchup. Oh, I didn't know that. Okay. Um, I'll go with the baked burger. Hot dog, hot dog with ketchup. I want ketchup on it. Hot dog. Um, what are your thoughts on drafting? Jaden Higgins late reminds me of a potential tank. Dell in his rookie season. This is Texans third round rookie, J Jane Higgins.

Starting point is 01:01:45 As far as talent goes, they couldn't be farther apart. Yeah. He's also gigantic. That's actually a strength is that he can be a physical outside receiver who can win 50, 50 balls and be a good complimentary pass catcher in Houston's offense. The only way I'd be more interested in Higgins is if Joe Mixon misses time, and it forces Houston to throw the ball maybe a little bit more than they'd want to, and that would up the target volume for him, and that would make him an interesting fantasy play. But I imagine he will be third on the team in targets behind Nico, obviously, and then Christian Kirk in the slot kind of a safe ish

Starting point is 01:02:26 PPR guy that you can look for late on draft day middle to late on draft day But if you want to put Higgins on your bench, I don't have a problem with it. I do think he's very talented I'm the opposite on that just real quick I think he's like my perfect ideal type lat late round last round type pick because I believe there's a chance given his profile they picked because I believe there's a chance given his profile, six, four can move pretty damn good for a six foot four athlete that he could be the guy that wins like the, the late season guy that wins your league. Cause there, yes, there are guys there Kirk and there are players that are in the mix there, but there's also opportunity there for sure in Houston.

Starting point is 01:02:58 And he has somewhat of that Nico Collins S build that they already found with Nico Collins a few years ago, Adam Michigan, who dominated the senior bowl and was held back by bad quarterback play in some ways against two was held back by bad quarterback play at Iowa State. So I like that play. All right. Next question or comment is from Garrett. Just had to say the thumbnail with Adam as a mailman might be the greatest of all time. Adam looks like he was born to be a mailman. Let's see this thumbnail. I get what you're saying when you say that Garrett. He does. Oh my God. Oh my God. He does look like he was born to be a mailman. And he does your thumbnails. Thomas does.

Starting point is 01:03:36 It definitely looks like he was born to be a mailman. So I don't think you could make a more fitting that it looks perfect. Looks like that's just Adam every day that he's just going to throughout his day. All right. You're scrolling through YouTube and you see that you can't help, but click on the video. Jacob wants to know if we can buy a Jacobi Myers breakout. I cannot.

Starting point is 01:03:59 I don't think he's a good enough. Yeah, sorry. Over Jacobi Meyer straight up. What would it shock you if he averaged 13 PPR points per game and was a pretty steady wide receiver three? No, no, no, no. But if that's happening, Bauer's is done. You're wasting a draft pick on him.

Starting point is 01:04:16 Last question from Dan here, different Dan. How are you valuing Chuba Hubbard? I like him. Chuba has been so consistently good when given opportunity and we still don't wrong. What do you mean? That's just not true. He wasn't.

Starting point is 01:04:33 He wasn't good. No, at the end of 2023, he was not good at 2024. He was amazing. Last year was his first good year with given the opportunity. Yeah. Um, let's see 2023. He was that's post Bryce young playing good football. Cause I think Bryce, I won't continue to play at the level he played around the mid season mark last year.

Starting point is 01:04:55 No, he was great. I mean, he was great last year. Okay. In his last 12 games of 2023, Chuba Hubbard was on pace for 288 yards. He averaged three, 288 carries. So that's work, that's, you know, that's basically workhorse. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry,

Starting point is 01:05:13 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game, which is gonna be right around RB 24 per game every season. He is, in my opinion, of the top 20-ish running backs or wherever he is, the most likely to be a huge bust. Doesn't mean that he will be, but I can't think of anyone who has a better bust case than Chuba Hubbard. You know, I'm, yeah, I can't. So I will not be drafting him a lot.

Starting point is 01:05:43 He's not my guy. Not my guy. Okay. I'm not lot. He's not my guy. Not my guy. Okay. I'm not going to say he's my guy. What's his ADP? What's our fans only ADP on him? On fantasy pros, he's RB 17. He's going just before Alvin Camara and Joe Mixon.

Starting point is 01:05:57 I mean, I just- And on our side, he's at 54th overall. So that's a round five pick. Absolutely smash him in round five. Same on fantasy. It was seventh inconsistency last year, 13th in targets per game, 13th in PPR points per game, I think you pencil them in for 15 PPR points a week and you get yourself a good RB to keep in mind that in 2023, you mentioned all those stats and the terrible rushing average Carolina's offense was miserable.

Starting point is 01:06:24 Their offensive line sucked. Bryce Young didn't know what he was doing. The coaching staff got replaced entirely after that season, but halfway through the season, they got rid of Frank Reich as their head coach. It was a total S show. And now this year, Dave Canale's second season, offensive line much better. We already have a year's worth of evidence from 2024 that Chuba Hubbard is more than capable of being a lead back. The Panthers rewarded him with a big contract. Rico Dowdle doesn't scare me. Trevor Etienne doesn't scare me. This dude's going to get a lot of work and easy pick in round five. All right, Dan, if you can name all 11 fruits that I bought last week without, without three

Starting point is 01:07:03 wrong answers. Okay. I'll give you 15 love in the first point. I'll give you the first point of the match. He's gonna have 15 love anyway. Yeah, I don't want that. I don't want that. I wanna beat you straight up. We'll figure out what I'll get out of this.

Starting point is 01:07:18 Thank you. Another way we could do this is if, Dave, do you wanna compete in the Name That Fruit contest? Sure. Okay, so I think what you do is you keep guessing until you get one wrong and then the other person guesses and you keep going until whoever names that last fruit wins. It's a terrible strategy here. Do you want to go first? You want to go second? Like what do you want to do? All right. I'll kick us off. Okay. I know you got raspberries and blueberries. I got raspberries. I did not get blueberries. Dave'll kick us off. Okay. I know you got raspberries and blueberries.

Starting point is 01:07:49 I got raspberries. I did not get blueberries. Dave, you're up. Blueberries was risky. Apple. Yeah, that's easy. Wow. I already had apples. I did not buy those. Okay. Oranges. Correct. Okay. So raspberries, oranges. Is this the end of our podcast? Yeah, it is. Like, I mean, like the end of it, like this, we're never at raspberries oranges. Is this the end of our podcast? Yeah, it is End of it like this we're never doing another one again

Starting point is 01:08:16 Guys naming fruits. I go ahead. Yeah, you're Adam apparently bought 11 of yeah, you only have two so far oranges Mango mango is correct. What a lucky guess that was. Who buys mangoes? I love mangoes. Mangoes might be the most underrated. Will you just guess? It's hard. Like I don't.

Starting point is 01:08:34 I'm almost done there. I'm in a lot of ways almost done. Like I don't want to guess pineapple. You didn't get pineapple. It's not a guess. You know, I don't want to guess. All right, listen. You get out of time. Dave, you're up.

Starting point is 01:08:47 You definitely bought a Kiwi. Strawberries. Strawberries. Correct. Easy one. I forgot immediately. Banana. Bananas.

Starting point is 01:08:58 Correct. How many am I? I've had like five now. Yeah. How many fruits have we named? You've got six more to name. Strawberries, bananas, mango, orange, and raspberries. Watermelon is on the list. Five left. Five left now. Don't give me any more, Thomas. Don't tell me anymore.

Starting point is 01:09:13 Oh, you cheated? I said that was Thomas. No. I said that was Thomas. Dave, your turn again. Plum? Nectarines. Everybody loves a good nectarine. Yes, I did. They were so good. Nectarines. Everybody loves a good nectarines. Yes, I did. They were so good. Nectarines are so underrated. My mom always buys them.

Starting point is 01:09:29 When I go over to the house, I have two at least every session. Oh, so good nectarines. What else? I've had like some seven. Stop guessing in the comments, Thomas. I'm trying to get these on my own. Stop looking at the comments, cheater. All right, fine.

Starting point is 01:09:43 I'll turn them off. Yeah, you know what? I'm going to bring Thomas. Thomas, you get to play. I'll turn them off. Yeah, you know what? I'm going to bring Thomas. Thomas, you get to play. Thomas, you're out of time for four left grapes. Grapes. Correct. Pomegranate.

Starting point is 01:09:55 Dave, you're up. You look like a guy that would be scared of a pomegranate. Yeah, I would never in pomegranate honeydew. that would be scared of a pomegranate. Yeah, I would never eat a pomegranate. Honeydew. Canelope. Canelope is correct. I think Spencer Patterson probably nailed this one.

Starting point is 01:10:13 I can't use the, I used to be able to pull comments now. Adam's taking away my freedoms. He's the type of guy that would call tomato fruit. Only two left. Only two left here. Are there even two fruits left? Name one of them is red and one of them is kind of is orange. Peaches green.

Starting point is 01:10:34 I already said no, no peaches. They both have pits. But you sure you didn't buy a plum? Yeah. Cherries, cherries. Yes, cherries. What else? The last one's really tough. Pineapple? No, it's orange and it has a pit. And we guessed orange. You can or cannot refrigerate it.

Starting point is 01:10:57 And they have a dry fruit version of this with the same name. Give me the clue again. Okay. It's orange. It's a circle. It has a pit and the dry fruit version has the same name and the dry fruit version is more common than the regular. Johnny Airport is such a good commenter. Yeah, he's great. Adam spent $395 on fruit. Apricot. Apricot was the last fruit. Apricot? Who buys apricots? They're delicious. I want to get on apricot too. It's a bit of an old man fruit. I get that. An old man fruit apricot.

Starting point is 01:11:38 Yeah. All right. Thanks for indulging. Thanks for playing, everybody. We'll talk to you on Monday. Have an awesome 4th of July. We appreciate you. Happy for playing everybody. We'll talk to you on Monday. Have an awesome Fourth of July. We appreciate you. Happy birthday America. USA. We love you America. We'll talk to you on Monday. See ya.

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Fantasy Football Today - Mailbag! Best Advanced Metrics, Player Comps, Consistent Players and More (07/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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