Fantasy Football Today - Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce? (07/16 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2022

Jacob Gibbs tells you how the top two tight ends have performed with Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown off the field. You might be surprised by the results.  You can also follow the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, You can listen to Fantasy Football Today in 5 on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast." Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Mark Andrews or Travis Kelsey? Big question this year at tight end.

Who does Jacob Gibbs like? We'll find out right now on Fantasy Football Today in five. Well, Jacob, I know I am firmly in Kelsey camp, okay? I'm not even thinking twice about it. This is an easy, easy call for me. What do you think? Let's talk about these two guys. One is not going to have Tyree Kill.

One's not going to have Marquise Brown. Let's explore that first, starting with Kelsey without Tyreek Hill. All right. I'm definitely excited to hear your strong stance here. I could go either way. I definitely understand the arguments for both. For me, I do lean slightly towards Mark Andrews, and it does have a lot to do with the splits that we have

with Andrews playing without his top receiver and Kelsey playing without his top receiver. So we'll start with Andrews playing without his top receiver and Kelsey playing without his top receiver. So we'll start with Andrews. His efficiency has spiked in routes run without Marquise Brown on the field. It's been like that every year in the routes that he's run without Brown on the field. And it's a pretty small sample size. Brown has been relatively healthy the whole time. But when Marquise Brown has been off, Mark Andrews has been much better. And it was the same thing last year. And over the past three seasons, we've seen Andrews be 25% more likely to draw a target when Brown is off the field.

And we've seen his yard per hour run rate increased by 22%. Flip it over to Kelsey. And the same cannot be said. When Tyreek Hill has been off the field, it has clearly hurt Travis Kelsey's efficiency. Last year, he was slightly more likely to draw a target when Hill was off the field. Over the past three seasons, it's been a wash. He's been at 24% target per outrun rate with Hill on or off. But there's a clear drop off in

his efficiency when Hill comes off the field. So last year, his yard, or no, over the past three seasons, his yard per outrun rate is down by 18% when Tyree comes off the field compared to a 22% increase for Mark Andrews. So with Tyree kill off the field over the past three seasons, Travis Kelsey has been targeted on 24% of his routes. Mark Andrews with Marquise Brown off the field, 31%, uh, yards per outrun Kelsey 1.9, Mark Andrews 2.7. Obviously, Kelsey could run more routes, but that's a pretty drastic difference in their per-route run rates with their top receivers off the field.

And so I'm really curious what you think about that. Well, I didn't know all that. Well, I think just looking at the games that Tyreek Hill has missed, and there are very few of those. It was three seasons ago. Travis Kelsey did very well in those games. He was over 80 yards in four of those five games.

I think the lowest total he had was about 72 yards. I don't know about per target, per route, all that stuff. But just looking at this is what he did when Tyreek Hill did not play, and that was the 2019 season, I, Mark Travis Kelsey was very good there. I am sure, you know, that you lose a guy like Tyreek Hill, you lose a guy like Marquise Brown. I think it's going to lead to more target volume for both of those guys. And the thing is, I just feel like there's going to be so much more target volume for Travis Kelsey. Cause I do believe that the Ravens drafting a center, I believe they drafted two tight ends.

They drafted a center in the first round. They're getting their running backs back and healthy. They traded Marquise Brown. All signs to me point to they want to get back to running the football a lot. And I just don't think Mark Andrews will have anywhere near the target volume that Travis Kelsey will have. I think that's fair, yeah. So I have the Ravens projected for a 10% decrease in pass attempts, which is pretty drastic from year to year. And even with that, they still project almost identically, Kelsey and Andrews,

not in terms of targets, but just in terms of fantasy points. And so anything less than a 10% increase leaves a lot of upside for Mark Andrews, in my opinion. And then I do think it's interesting, just talking about the moves the two teams have made, leaves a lot of upside for Mark Andrews, in my opinion. And then I do think it's interesting, just talking about the moves the two teams have made, Kansas City has really done a lot to try to address the hole left by Tyreek Hill bringing in Juju Smith-Schuster. Mark Isvalda scaling has really actually had pretty encouraging data

the last couple of years. Sky Moore, somebody we're all pretty excited for. The Ravens really haven't replaced Mark Eastbrown. We're expecting Rashad Bateman to take a step forward, but I think their moves indicate that they are confident that Mark Andrews can be the guy, not just a 1A, 1B type of thing. I know you're going to say, and this is important,

that Kelsey, he's getting up there in age, right? And last year was not... He'll be 33 in October. Last year was not a great year for him in terms of rates. I would just point out that it wasn't nearly as good for Patrick Mahomes either. And if you follow the ebbs and flows of last season, when Mahomes struggled a little bit,

Kelsey struggled a little bit. But as Mahomes, toward the end of the year, really bounced back, Kelsey did as well. So that would be my pushback on that argument that I know you're going to make. Go ahead. Yeah, no, I think that's fair. But yeah, that would be my pushback on that argument that, that I know you're going to make a go ahead. Yeah, no, I think that's fair, but yeah, that would be what I would say is like the games you referenced earlier with Tyree kill wasn't 2019. And that was, you know, two years ago, um, three years ago, by the time we get to this season and the rates we saw for

Kelsey last year, we're pretty discouraging. I don't know if I'm ready to, you know, count them out yet. He's Travis Kelsey. He's insanely good at football. He could definitely bounce back this year, but he is going to be 33. And Mark Andrews, we don't have any of those concerns. He has continued to elevate his game and is going to be a fifth year player. He still could make improvements, which is crazy because what we've seen from him has been better than Travis Kelsey just over the past three years on a per route basis. Over the past three years, Travis Kelsey has been targeted on 24% of his routes and averaged 2.2 yards per outrun. Mark Andrews, 27% of his routes, 2.3 yards per outrun.

And we're finally seeing him at a similar type of route involvement as Travis Kelsey. And, you know, we talked about the overall pass volume might be lower, but in 2021, Andrews ran a route on 84% of Baltimore's dropbacks. Travis Kelsey ran around on 84 percent of Baltimore's dropbacks Travis Kelsey ran around 81 percent of Kansas City's dropbacks and so we're finally seeing him in this true you know alpha you know tight end role here like we've seen from Travis Kelsey Darren Waller those type of guys and his priority rates have always been better his priority rates have been

better than anyone not named George Kittle the tight end position from since he's came to the league um so everything that I see points towards Andrews being the best projectable tight end in the NFL when it comes to fantasy. And I last thought here, just it just interesting how people want to talk about post postseason games. Cause if you look at Travis Kelsey's regular season, he had 34 or fewer yards in four of his last five games, which sounds like a typo,

but it isn't 34 or fewer yards in four of his last five games, which sounds like a typo, but it isn't. 34 or fewer yards in four of his last five games. It's hard to believe. And then he played three playoff games, and Travis Kelsey averaged 100 yards per game. He had 13 yards per catch. He caught 85% of his targets. He averaged 11.07 yards per target. So if you throw those games in,

maybe people are more optimistic about what Kelsey showed last year. If you ignore the playoffs, then you see four of his last five games under 34 yards. So you at home will have to decide because we are out of time. Thanks for watching, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow

with a Michael Thomas profile on Fantasy Football Today. Bye.