Fantasy Football Today - Michael Thomas Out, Trade Talk, Jets-Colts (11/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 3, 2021

We learned Michael Thomas had a setback just before the show, and while we did not know at the time that he would miss the rest of the season, we'll still tell you what to expect from the Saints offen...se without Thomas moving forward. Then we'll talk trade (8:40)! Our favorite buy lows include Justin Herbert for Dave and the rookie WRs for Heath (13:10). We have a lengthy debate about Waddle, Smith and Toney. And how confident are we in the Chiefs offense bouncing back (23:30)? ... News and notes (28:50) and some sell high candidates to consider (33:40). What does the schedule look like for Damien Harris moving forward? We'll also tell you how to value (41:30) Deebo Samuel, Ja'Marr Chase and Cordarrelle Patterson ... Previewing Jets-Colts (49:00), discussing some of the most traded players in CBS leagues (57:30), hearing from the Fantasy Cops (1:02:00) and reading your Apple Podcast questions at the end of the show ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:54 at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Hey, what's up, everybody? Just want to let you know that when we started recording the podcast, all we knew about Michael Thomas was that he had a setback with his ankle. So we talked about that.
Starting point is 00:01:12 We did not know until after the show that he would be out for the season. Still, the information is pretty relevant. We basically approached it like he would be out for an extended period of time. But just in case you are confused, Michael Thomas is out for the year. When you hear the show, we did not know that at the time. Anyway, enjoy Fantasy Football Today. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Oh man, some bad news on Michael Thomas, but we've got some good news for you.
Starting point is 00:01:59 Plenty of buy low candidates to help you win your league. If you lost Derrick Henry, we've got options for you. Good schedules, players with bad schedules who you might want to trade away. All that fun stuff. Welcome to the Wednesday show, Fantasy Football Today. I'm Adam. Hey, Dave. What's up, dude?
Starting point is 00:02:13 Hey, Heath. What's going on, Adam? Congratulations on your adopted team winning the World Series. That was fantastic. I mean. That's the thing. People who cheer for teams that never win have to go find a team in the playoffs that they want to win. And you were able to do that this year. So congratulations.
Starting point is 00:02:33 It's tough being a Yankees fan. Year after year of losing in the playoffs, it'll get to you. Congratulations to the Braves. That's excellent. And we have a question right now in our chat. What happened with Michael Thomas? Well, this just in, we're recording at 840. And at about 838, we saw that Michael Thomas has a new issue with his ankle, and there's no timetable for his return. So it's time to drop him, Dave, if you don't have an IR
Starting point is 00:03:04 spot. Yeah, you've got to consider the possibility that he's not going to play this year it depends on how badly you need that roster spot for someone else i just got a tweet from someone saying david montgomery's on my waiver wire should i swap out michael thomas for david montgomery I said, hell yes, because we, we, we think Montgomery is going to be back week 11. We now do not know when Michael Thomas is going to be back. We also don't know how good he'll be when he does come back. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:35 And this is one of the things that I was worried about drafting Michael Thomas in the first place. This was in the range of outcomes and there's still a, there's a greater chance now than it was a week ago or a day ago that he doesn't play at all this season. Hmm. Hey, he, who would rather have Adrian Peterson or Michael Thomas? I mean, I'd rather have Michael Thomas, but there are circumstances I could certainly see where I would drop Michael Thomas for Adrian Peterson.
Starting point is 00:04:03 I mean, it's not not it's not impossible this is like this is the worst possible thing that could have happened a setback with an ankle injury i i don't recall any indication that this might be a season ender but you have to start wondering like is he ever going if he can't play all year is he ever going to be really michael thomas again it's not like he's young i got another interesting tweet from someone they all they wrote was the aj green playbook and remember how aj green had the injury didn't really want to play for the bengals bengals just let him sit out it seems more likely to me yeah that might be what's going on now and i think it's a little unfair it's a little unfair that i i don't want to jump to that conclusion because maybe he's a little unfair I don't want to jump to that conclusion because maybe he's really hurt and I don't want to
Starting point is 00:04:48 put that on him so let's talk about fantasy here with Taysom Hill was he the most added quarterback he was he's now only 20% rostered at the moment Adrian Peterson by the way 46% rostered but a lot of teams
Starting point is 00:05:04 a lot of leagues are running their waivers on Wednesday night, so we'll see what that number is tomorrow. But Taysom Hill, now let's just assume he's not going to have Michael Thomas, at least for the foreseeable future. Is he, Heath, much is there a much different value now for Taysom Hill? We know he gets a lot of his fantasy
Starting point is 00:05:19 points on the ground anyway. Right. And what's the meme, if you think this, then you never understood this in the first place? I and what's the the meme if if you think this then you never understood this in the first place i think that's the the tasem hill thing now is like if you think michael thomas not coming back hurts tasem hill you never understood tasem hill in the first place i michael thomas is when he was michael thomas was obviously awesome he wasn't quite himself last year anyway more importantly tasem Hill's passing is not what's going to make him fantasy relevant.
Starting point is 00:05:48 You need him to run the ball 10 times a game for 50 yards, score two touchdowns one way or another, and I think he can do that without Michael Thomas. So I still expect once, and again, Taysom Hill hasn't been cleared yet. He hasn't got out of the concussion protocol, and he's been there for three weeks.
Starting point is 00:06:04 So until that happens, it's, it's all kind of a moot point, but I still expect when Taysom Hill starts football games, he will be a top 12 quarterback for the rest of the season. Okay. Because he really relied on Michael Thomas last year. So I know that you don't need Taysom Hill's passing numbers, but you need him to be decent, and Michael Thomas had a third of his targets. He relied on Michael Thomas for yards. Michael Thomas didn't score a touchdown last year. That's absolutely true.
Starting point is 00:06:34 None of his four passing touchdowns went to Michael Thomas. Does this make you less concerned about Alvin Kamara because Kamara got hardly any targets until the one game. They went 3-1 with Taysom Hill. And the game they lost, he actually had, I think, seven catches or something. But before that, does this change anything? Because all the targets were going to Thomas.
Starting point is 00:06:53 The thing is, and I think we need to keep this in mind, like when we're making all these drastic changes to expectations because Michael Thomas is not playing. Michael Thomas, we expected Michael Thomas to play this week. Michael Thomas hasn't played all season. I didn't necessarily think Michael Thomas was coming back next week. We had no timetable for him to return, right?
Starting point is 00:07:15 Right, but last night, we had a three-week window where he was going to play. He was on PUP. He's still on PUP. But there was actually a report a couple weeks ago that he was going to miss like two more or that he wasn't going to come back this week or or sorry i based on it was i think an ian rapaport report i i thought maybe next week he could come back but last night we were talking about camara on our on our tuesday night stream
Starting point is 00:07:41 and you kind of seemed like you were willing to trade him. I think somebody said Najee Harris or Kamara or something like that. Yeah, I think guys like Najee Harris and Austin Eckler who have, I believe, been better than Alvin Kamara so far this season. I don't think it's unreasonable to think they would be better than Alvin Kamara moving forward.
Starting point is 00:08:00 Yeah. Okay, but I was concerned about Kamara's catches. If he gets 20 carries a game. I still am a little bit. Yeah. All right. But less so without Thomas? Yes. Okay.
Starting point is 00:08:11 Less so without Thomas. NFL rules on the pup list. Player has to sit out for the first six weeks of the season. That's happened. After that, teams will have a window of five weeks to decide whether that player can start practicing. So after week 11 if he's not in that window he's done for the year that makes me want to hang on to him by any means possible between now and when week 11 kicks off and that's like it's so
Starting point is 00:08:42 everything right now is and especially the waivers as well so dependent on where you are in your league right now because for some teams week 11 might be like don't check waivers any more time if they don't start winning right now for some teams week 11 just the start of when when it might start mattering again because you've already won so many games so like if you can't hold Michael Thomas on a roster spot with no IR if you're sitting there at three and five. Yeah. Well, it depends on your situation.
Starting point is 00:09:13 You can try to. Depends on who's out there. But if there's an able-bodied person who can help you win now or potentially win next week and they're sitting there and the only guy you can seemingly drop is Thomas. Then you're dropping Thomas. Okay. That is your Michael Thomas update. Sorry. Sorry for the bad news. Hey, let's make it a little more positive here. Let's talk about some buy lows. Let's just throw out some names here and then we'll have an open discussion about it, but give me however many you want to
Starting point is 00:09:41 three, whatever by people, uh, players that you might actively be looking to buy low on dave why don't you start the quarterback that i recommended buying low on yesterday was justin herbert so i'll say that again the last two weeks have been ugly for him i don't expect it to continue we know what the upside is with him we know he's got good receivers and we know he's got a running back that'll catch the ball out of the backfield he's also on a team that likes to throw the ball so there there's plenty to like about Justin Herbert, and his value has tanked quite a bit. If you've got Jalen Hurts and you're nervous about him, if you want to put a Band-Aid on, better than a Band-Aid, I should say,
Starting point is 00:10:19 on the Russell Wilson situation, if you've been streaming for whatever reason, go get Herbert. that's an upgrade okay uh yeah it's not an upgrade hold on hold on i don't know if he's an upgrade over russell wilson rest of season but we we think russ is going to be back soon but probably after they're by so maybe if you've got russ you just wait a week and you don't chase Justin Herbert. Well, and with Hurts, he's an upgrade in stability because there's not concern there. But if Jalen Hurts
Starting point is 00:10:52 and Justin Herbert both play the rest of the season, I don't think Herbert's a fantasy upgrade over Hurts. Oh, here we go. Well, Hurts has obviously been a lot better in fantasy than in real life. He's been a good fantasy option,
Starting point is 00:11:12 and he's actually outscored Justin Herbert so far. He's played an extra game. Even after last week, right? Yeah, they're tied in points per game. It depends what scoring you look at, but they're basically even in points per game. Sure. I bet Hertz is higher in four-point. Yeah, that doesn't surprise me yeah in six point
Starting point is 00:11:26 uh in six point actually herbert's ahead by half a point um well but you know i think another angle is you've got tom brady or something like that and you lost eric henry or you need a running back you know what running back do you have to get back you trade tom brady you get justin herbert and what let's see um what if you get melvin gordon no what if you get khalil herbert no if you get ryle sanders maybe but i think no i think you've got to get i was thinking david montgomery yeah yeah something like that like you've got i would not give Herbert and Montgomery for Brady. You wouldn't, but that's because you're saying to buy low on Herbert. But for all the people that are panicking over Herbert
Starting point is 00:12:11 because he's had two bad games in a row, would you give up Cordaro? Or would Cordaro Patterson get it done? Would you say, I'll give up Brady for Herbert and Patterson? Is that a fair trade? Oh, I would give up Brady for Herbert and Patterson, yes. In fair trade? I would give up Brady for Herbert and Patterson, yes. In a heartbeat, I would do that. I don't know why it takes so long to process that in my brain.
Starting point is 00:12:32 There's a pretty big difference between Herbert and Brady right now. Yeah, I think Brady is an elite fantasy quarterback and Herbert is a low-end number one. All right. Heath, give me a buy low. Herbert or Rodgers rest of season? Rodgers. Herbers.
Starting point is 00:12:51 Herbert for me. Because Rodgers hasn't been a top 12 quarterback this year. Oh, yes, he has. Per game? Well, not per game. Let's see. Per game, he's outside of the one, two, three, four. He's basically tied for 11th.
Starting point is 00:13:10 Or 10th. No, it's Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers are all basically in a three-way tie for 11th. Aaron Rodgers, though. He's way down by week one, where he scored one fantasy point. Since then, he's probably been top five. If we azer-step that one out of there, which I think I think it's fair to dear.
Starting point is 00:13:30 You should. Do we take everyone else's worst game out as well? Can we take last week out for Jalen Hurts? I mean, you kind of can, yeah, but this was the worst game of Rodgers' career. So since then, I think he's been a top five quarterback. He's been pretty close. But all right, that's, I guess, how we're valuing Justin Herbert,
Starting point is 00:13:47 right on par with Aaron Rodgers. Who are we buying low on? Oh, I'm... Oh, I know who... Sorry, I was really disturbed by that conversation for some reason. It got in my head. Devante Smith, Jalen Waddell, Kadarius Toney, the three rookie wide receivers,
Starting point is 00:14:04 should be relatively cheap right now. I don't expect all three of them will break out in the second half of the season. But we've got a pretty good history of very good rookie wide receivers being better in the second half of the season than they are in the first half of the season. Both Smith, all three, Smith, Waddell, and Toney, more Smith and Waddell, have given us reason to believe they have that type of potential they were first round draft picks early in the draft they have great pedigree they are on offenses that i would expect to be better at passing in the second half of the season they were in the first half and so i i think both of
Starting point is 00:14:41 those guys will be borderline number two wide receivers from this point forward. Well, both Waddle and Smith and Tony is more dependent on health. All right. This will be a fun conversation. We got into it on Devante Smith yesterday. Dave's on your side. So fire away. I think.
Starting point is 00:14:59 No, I don't think you know what my side is because I'm not. I just the conversation we got and basically how good has Devante Smith been so far this year I think that's where we differed I'm not dropping Devante Smith I woke up this morning and and I saw that Chris dropped Devante Smith in a league and I was freaking out because he because we yelled about it and then I realized that was the first thing I did in the morning and I was really tired I'm pretty sure he actually dropped Jalen Rager and not Devante Smith. So I calmed down. I was like, okay, I don't have to yell at Chris. But for Smith, he's the number 42 wide receiver in fantasy right now in both formats. He has one touchdown. It came in week one. He has zero targets inside the 10. He has two inside the
Starting point is 00:15:41 20 and his quarterback is on pace for 23 touchdown passes. So I think you need to consider that. And the other thing, Heath, I think you need to consider is that, you know, last year we had a lot of really good rookie-wide receivers, but we don't typically. You know, I mean, even if you go back to two years ago, it's not like DK Metcalf, who had a good rookie year, was so good for fantasy. Or Terry McLaurinin for that matter. It's not like they were great. You know, AJ Brown was, but that, I mean, pretty much,
Starting point is 00:16:11 you know, I like the 900 yard mark, but 900 yards, it's not a great fantasy season. So I don't really know what kind of second half they're going to have, you know, you know what I mean? It's like, I don't know that they're going to go all Brandon Iuke on us. Well, I don't, I don't know if they're going to go all Brandon Ayuk on us. Well, I don't know if they're going to go all Brandon Ayuk on us as well. I would guess probably one of them will. And one of them will be a high-end number three. And one of them, maybe Tony, because he can't get healthy, will just not be anything at all. But specifically with Smith and Waddle I believe in their talent and I think that there
Starting point is 00:16:47 are pretty good extenuating circumstances for why they rank where they rank so far which is first I mean for like Smith's is we talked about this last night altered pretty badly by the fact that the Eagles last night last one of the weirdest, most run-heavy game scripts, I believe, of the NFL season because they were playing the Lions. Yeah, I threw that game out. So he's number 41 without that game? No, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:17:16 But I threw it out of my mind, and I'll tell you that his first seven games were better than DK Metcalf's, better than A.J. Brown's, better than T. Higgins, in terms of yards. They all had more touchdowns than him, but he had more yards than Higgins, A.J. Brown, and Metcalf
Starting point is 00:17:34 in their first seven games of their rookie season. And I do think it's possible that because of their offensive philosophy and because of Jalen Hurts, he's going to have a low touchdown rate. He currently has a touchdown rate below 2%. DJ Moore has a 3% career touchdown rate. But if he doesn't get any targets where it counts, that's what I'm saying. He needs to have those targets. Players score from outside of the red zone. And again, like we've said, it's the first eight games of his career and like games five through 12 of Jalen Hurts playing quarterback in the NFL. Dave left.
Starting point is 00:18:11 Okay, Dave is, I hope, planning something fun here. I want to get him in on this to see if he believes in those three. He does not believe in Devontae Smith. I know that. Hey, Dave. Are we done talking about the Eagles? Because this has been a trend on Wednesdays that we've turned Giants talk into Eagles talk now.
Starting point is 00:18:29 That's my favorite team, you know? Are we going to come out on Devontae? No, all three of them. All three of them. Would you buy low on Waddle, Smith, Tony? I think the only guy that you can truly buy low on is Smith. I think the people who have Waddle know what he is, accept what he is.
Starting point is 00:18:47 They're happy to keep him at that spot. If you want to try and trade for him, it shouldn't take much to get him. I don't think he's changing this year. I don't think he's going to morph into a big play receiver this year for the Dolphins. I think the coaching staff hasn't pegged into this role, and that's that, and it's frustrating.
Starting point is 00:19:02 Smith is, what did we say? He's like the ranked ranked 49 42 42 okay he's tied for 28th in overall targets he's top 12 in air yards he's getting great opportunities to be an explosive receiver he's just not connecting with jalen hurts i think i'd actually side with heath on this one in that we're gonna see davante smith eventually connect and put up better numbers than he has in the first half of the season. I didn't say he wouldn't. The thing that
Starting point is 00:19:29 you should be encouraged by the fact that he's getting downfield looks and that he's getting high target volume in the majority of his games. Yes, that's a good buy low and there are people who are probably thinking about dropping Devontae Smith. The time is perfect to go and pick him up.
Starting point is 00:19:46 But he is tied to Jalen Hurts, and we know that Jalen Hurts isn't an efficient passer, and that's going to be what could be part of the downfall for Devante Smith this year. Just accept that as part of the risk, and you look at Devante Smith as a boom-bust type of No. 3 type of receiver. Same thing with Tony, who I don't know where he's at in terms of health.
Starting point is 00:20:06 I think he's an explosive talent. I was really disappointed in him not being used as much as he possibly could last week. Yeah, the one thing I'll say is like, if you want more hope for Jalen Waddell being different than he was the first half of the season,
Starting point is 00:20:23 it's that you hope that Jacoby Brissett doesn't start half the games that he plays. And you look at the schedule and you see he's got the Texans, he's got the Jets, he's got the Giants, he's got the Jets, he's got the Titans, he's got some really pretty decent matchups. He has a couple of bad matchups as well,
Starting point is 00:20:38 but they play the Saints in week 15. I don't think we're going to get Latimore covering Jalen Waddell. It's probably going to be on Devontae Parker. I'd be surprised by that. And you know, the Jets don't give up a lot of points to wide receivers, and I don't think the Texans do either, but the difference for the Dolphins
Starting point is 00:20:54 is that they don't run the ball. I mean, they can't really run the ball that well, so they're not going to be one of those teams that builds a big lead and then just runs out the clock. That's just not their style, so I think that benefits Waddle against these matchups, against teams like the Jets, who can't cover anyone,
Starting point is 00:21:09 but they don't give up a ton of fantasy points to the wide receivers because teams are always running on them. As far as Tony goes, who's a better buy low? Kenny Galladay or Kadarius Tony? And Sterling Shepard, by the way, is going to be out a little while with a quad strain, and they have the Raiders and then a buy. So keep that in mind. But who's a better by law? Who's the best wide receiver for the Giants rest of season? I'm going to I'm going to bet on Tony staying healthier than Galladay.
Starting point is 00:21:37 I mean, the answer is whichever one of them can play the rest of the games. We don't know that. But, yeah, I would say Tony. I absolutely agree. And I also think that you should just wait a week because if Tony, if Galladay doesn't come back, going into the bye, people are going to cut him. And if Tony doesn't come back, he's a raider. He's 57% roster candidate. It's going to go even lower.
Starting point is 00:22:04 So he's not even a buy low. He's a% rostered. It's going to go even lower. So he's not even a buy low. He's a grab off the waiver wire and stash type of receiver. Well, Tony's only 63. And I think Tony would be in the same box. He is. 63% rostered for Darius Tony. I don't know what it'll be tomorrow. It's going to go down. They're not buy lows. Wait for them to be cuts.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Well, they've been cut. All right. And they are buy lows in a lot of leagues because they're not available in any of my leagues, I don't think. So maybe a 10-team league or any of your leagues. But All right. So, uh, and they are by lows in a lot of leagues. Cause you know, they're not available in any of my leagues. I don't think so. Maybe a 10 team league or any of your leagues, but, um, I got, uh, I got two more here. Tell me what you think. Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb coming off a bad game, but still no Kareem hunt. Kareem hunt has three touchdowns inside the five yard line. I'm thinking those are more likely to go to Chubb than Dearness Johnson for the foreseeable future by Buy low on Chubb. Well, but we just had Johnson get a 10-yard run.
Starting point is 00:22:49 Yes, he had four carries, though. He had four carries, and Chubb had 16. I'm just playing devil's advocate more than anything else. I'm thinking that Chubb is too popular of a running back for him to be... For fantasy managers to just give up on him. Yeah. I think you're going to have to give up something pretty good to get Chubb. Oh, for sure. Do you go Samuel or Nick Chubb?
Starting point is 00:23:08 I think it's worth it. In PPR, I think I'd much rather have Samuel. In a non-PPR, yeah, I think that's probably close to a fair deal, believe it or not. Yeah. Well, I think I'd take Chubb and non, but what about half? I might lean Samuel. Chubb and non, but what about half? I might lean Samuel. I thought it was just a catch per game.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Yeah. And if he doesn't score, what is he? It could be a hundred yards, but yeah, I think we got to talk about Debo because he's a, he's the number two wide receiver in fantasy. And to me,
Starting point is 00:23:42 the Trey Lance thing is pretty big. And it was his worst game, I'm pretty sure. The one game that Trey Lance started, I think he had like 56 yards. I just don't know. I don't know that we're going to see Trey Lance soon. Yeah, I don't either. But a couple weeks ago, Kyle Shanahan was just pissed off about Jimmy Garoppolo and barely committed to him.
Starting point is 00:24:03 So I don't know. One bad game and you don't know. And then, guys, we haven't talked about the Chiefs. Mahomes, Kelsey in particular, Clyde. Are we believing in the Chiefs offense? Do they just fix it, Heath? I don't. I mean, if someone is selling low on Patrick Mahomes
Starting point is 00:24:21 or Travis Kelsey, then yes, you should buy low on them. They're like, I don't know what even selling low on Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelsey, then yes, you should buy low on them. They they're like, I don't know what even selling low. I think someone said they were offered Waller for Kelsey and they were considering taking it. If someone would give you Travis Kelsey for Darren Waller, then you should absolutely take it. Um, I still expect Travis Kelsey will be the number one tight end for the rest of the season, just like he's been the number one tight end so far this season. And I think Mahomes is a top three quarterback. So yes, buy low on both of them. The thing is, will they fix it?
Starting point is 00:24:55 They're top five and number one at their position right now. I understand, but why just ignore the trends here that they're struggling right now, you know? This is the same thing that we got into last night, and I think we've talked about it a lot more this year. And I'll just, like, the fact that their last two games were worse than their two games before that, I don't believe there's anything telling in that, unless there's something that I can use to explain it. Well, yeah. Two games ago, this thing happened, and that is why they are bad now.
Starting point is 00:25:32 Well, the thing is with Mahomes is he's thrown 10 interceptions. So that's hurting his value, obviously, and that's a season-long thing. Yes, and I don't think that he's going to continue to throw interceptions at that same rate. Yeah. All right. So we generally feel pretty good about the Chiefs. I'm not concerned.
Starting point is 00:25:54 I mean, I don't think they're going to win the Super Bowl like I did at the beginning of the year. Team-wise, I don't feel good about the Chiefs. But for fantasy, yes. I still think the Chiefs are going to be awesome. It just does seem like teams are doing a better job taking away the big plays this year you know that is just lately anyway i mean uh just they're struggling in that aspect and i know teams have always tried to do that
Starting point is 00:26:16 it's not like this is the first year that they've played two deep safeties but they're having more success this season um all right okay so getting my homes to make more mistakes yeah and i haven't watched quite as closely but i think he's leaving pockets a little too early i think he's trying to to do a callback and this isn't a this isn't a flex but marv levy used to be really frustrated with mike martz when martz was the offensive coordinator with the Bears and he would say that he's too cavalier when it comes to his playing and it bled into what Jay Cutler did and I wonder if that's what's happening now is that Mahomes is just way too lax and he's trying to make things happen and force things and that's what pressing maybe more than lax but yeah I also think if you go back and watch all of the patrick
Starting point is 00:27:06 mahomes interceptions this year i believe at least half and maybe more of half of them hit a receiver's hands before a defender caught them yeah a little unlucky there for sure yes all right well we are going to help you with dfs with our fantasy football today dfs podcast that's frank stanfield mike mcclure and cn Najad giving you cash and GPP analysis. Episodes are on Tuesdays and Thursdays. You're gonna get pricing and matchups and all those things. So listen to the Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast wherever you listen to FFT.
Starting point is 00:27:37 And Grammarly. I gotta tell you about Grammarly, okay? I've told you about Grammarly before. This is an awesome, awesome website and service that's gonna help you with your writing. And Dave and Heath, they write all the time and they know that editing takes forever. It is so annoying. Stop wasting time with editing and let Grammarly just do it for you. What you want is Grammarly premium, okay? It saves me a lot of time and the rare occasions that I write, but I do write sometimes and it doesn't have to be an article. It could be a letter or if you're in school,
Starting point is 00:28:07 that could be great if you're at work and you're giving a presentation. Grammarly will help you. And if you wanna save a little money on Grammarly Premium, you go to grammarly.com slash FFT and get 20% off Grammarly Premium. That is G-R-A-M-M-A-R-L-Y.com slash FFT. So what is Grammarly?
Starting point is 00:28:25 You write something either right in Grammarly or you can upload a document there. It's going to look at the document. It's going to give you some suggestions. It's going to make your vocabulary better. Obviously, it's going to fix your grammar or it wouldn't be called Grammarly, but it's really going to help you
Starting point is 00:28:38 communicate your message better, shorter, more concise, more powerful communication through Grammarly. And yeah, just the better vocabulary. You don't have to go searching for synonyms anymore. So this is all really, really helpful. And you can streamline your workload with seamless integration into Microsoft Office or your internet browser or your phone and more. And I really like it. I think it's great. It's almost shockingly helpful. You didn't realize how much better your writing and your communication could be until you use Grammarly Premium. So,
Starting point is 00:29:12 again, if you want to save editing time and write more confidently, do that with Grammarly Premium. Get 20% off Grammarly Premium by signing up at grammarly.com slash FFT. That is 20% off. G-R-A-M-M-A-R-L-Y dot com slash FFT. Well, I got a lot of... Man, we're 30 minutes in. We haven't even talked about a sell high. Let me go through the news and notes real quick here. So you heard the Michael Thomas news at the top of the show. You probably know by now that the Raiders released Henry Ruggs.
Starting point is 00:29:45 He was charged with DUI resulting in death. He is off the Raiders. Dave, is this a big boost for any particular wide receiver? Is it a problem for Derek Carr? And I hate to talk, I always hate to talk about the fantasy angles of this. It was a sickening, sickening story. It's terrible. I feel horrible for everyone involved.
Starting point is 00:30:03 But I know people have questions. I know we got a lot of them last night during our live stream, so I'm going to address it. Dave, the fantasy impact for the Raiders. I think this opens the door for Brian Edwards to finally have a chance to be a regular contributor in the offense. Not that he's as fast as Henry Ruggs and not having a fast receiver in the offense. Not that he's as fast as Henry Ruggs and not having a fast receiver in that offense.
Starting point is 00:30:30 That could change things quite a bit. I wonder if they make a move for Deshaun Jackson, for example, to try and just take the top off of defenses. That's a move that makes a lot of sense to me. And ultimately, I think Edwards will see more target share. We've seen now in the past few weeks, four, six, four, four targets. I bet that becomes the floor for him on a game-to-game basis, and the ceiling gets into the six, seven, eight range.
Starting point is 00:30:55 Waller's going to come back. Derek Carr, when in doubt, you know he's going to lean on Waller. When the run game can't get going, you know Renfro's going to pop for a 10-target game. Even with the run game going now, I bet Renfro could see five six targets per game so the opportunities are just going to go elsewhere i'm more concerned about how defenses will play them because they don't have that deep speed receiver on the field i don't know how much of this is rugs i know he doesn't have a ton of catches but the raiders have the second most pass plays of 20 plus yards in the nfl behind only the
Starting point is 00:31:23 bucks they've played one fewer game than the Bucs, right? At least one in six of seven games. Yeah. In terms of 40 plus yard pass plays, they have six, which is pretty solid. It's fourth most in the NFL. So I, yeah, Heath, do you think this is a big downgrade for Derek Carr? Because this deep ball element has been, you know, it's been good for him. It's, it's been different.
Starting point is 00:31:45 I don't. I think he was a borderline number one quarterback before this, and he's a borderline number one quarterback now. There have been a couple of good plays, but a lot of those deep plays that we've seen have also just been because the defense was so focused on everything going on in front of them, and there were just guys wide open. So I think we'll see Zay Jones do that a little little bit we might see deshaun jackson do that for him
Starting point is 00:32:09 brian edwards can certainly get behind the defense on occasion i think car remains a a high end number two really a borderline number one i want to fly through the rest of these notes here guys tasem hill on schedule to return this week hasn't been cleared as heath mentioned they're optimistic i guess i'd say facing the falcons and itn't been cleared, as Heath mentioned. They're optimistic, I guess I'd say, facing the Falcons. And it hasn't been declared the starting quarterback either. Sterling Shepard expected to miss time with the quad strain.
Starting point is 00:32:31 You got Galladay and Tony, who are pretty available, about 40% of leagues, and Slayton and a lot more than that. The Raiders give up the third fewest points to wide receivers. Rams wave to Sean Jackson. As Dave mentioned,
Starting point is 00:32:43 he could fit for the Raiders. Noah Fant is on the reserve COVID list. He tested positive. If he's vaccinated, he still could get back in time. Right now, I think we'll probably plan on not having Noah Fant at Dallas this week. Tennessee signed Deontay Foreman. Does this matter? Nah.
Starting point is 00:33:00 Not for fantasy purposes. Jets and Colts are on Thursday. Corey Davis, Tevin Coleman, they would not have practiced yesterday had it been a real practice. The Jets also acquired offensive lineman Laurent Duvernay-Tardif from the Chiefs. He has not played this year,
Starting point is 00:33:16 and he missed all of last year, but the Jets are looking for a little depth there. Meanwhile, for the Colts, they may not have Quentin Nelson this week. He would not have practiced yesterday. Marquez Valdez-Scantling is on the radar. He could play this week. Washington, they've already been without Brandon Scher for a while,
Starting point is 00:33:31 and now they probably, I'm guessing it's a season ender for center Chase Ruyeh. He broke his leg. So, tough break for them. Maybe they'll get him back for the playoffs. The Chiefs acquired Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. Green Bay. Yeah. Green Bay is going to win the Super Bowl, guys.
Starting point is 00:33:51 They are the third team in the Super Bowl era to win seven games in a row after losing a game by 30 or more points, according to ESPN stats and info. The other two teams to have done that won the Super Bowl, the 76 Raiders and the 94 49ers. Phillip Rivers said he would listen to offers to come back.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Maybe the Saints. Maybe the Lions. Logan Thomas will return to practice after the bye week. So Dave talked about him yesterday. You can get Logan Thomas on your team now. And Detroit activated left tackle Taylor Decker from IR. He has not played this season. That would be great to get him back.
Starting point is 00:34:30 So, give me a few sell-highs. Heath. I'm hesitant if I want to actually say this, but I think Matthew Stafford's probably a sell-high. He is, I believe, currently the number three quarterback number two quarterback in CBS
Starting point is 00:34:47 scoring number three in per game I don't really like I can believe it with Brady more than I can believe it with Stafford I think eventually we'll see some of these running
Starting point is 00:34:57 quarterbacks that will be more what we thought they would be in terms of fantasy production think Stafford's probably closer to Justin Herbert than he is to Tom Brady. And so maybe that's a good thing. See what you can get in addition to Justin Herbert
Starting point is 00:35:11 for Matthew Stafford. Okay. Dave, any sell-highs come to mind? Yes. Damian Harris is a sell-high. Six of his next seven games are coming against teams that are ranked in the top 10 of fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. They are matchups where I wonder if the Patriots are going to have to throw more and run less.
Starting point is 00:35:33 Not easy matchups. And that makes me nervous to trust Damian Harris in those types of games. So I'd like to see what I could get for him in a trade. And we've talked a lot about Dallas Goddard as a sell-high candidate. I know you guys totally disagree. It depends on how you feel about the tight end position. If you just want a good, safe starter rest of season, Goddard's fine. Keep him.
Starting point is 00:35:57 But I think a lot of people would like to have a tight end like that on their fantasy teams, and they might even overpay for them. And so Goddard is someone who it's good fantasy production two games without zackert so far double digits in ppr uh seven points in non-ppr that's fine but if you need help elsewhere on your team and you can pick up another tight end off the waiver waiver wire maybe someone like pat fryer m youth, then I would see what you could get for gutter. And if you can get someone to bite hard for him, you should trade him.
Starting point is 00:36:31 I have one question on each player. Um, and I don't know the answer to the first one. I don't know the answer to either of them, but with Damien Harris, I kind of think in terms of his strength of schedule it is more about how good the opposing offense is as opposed to how good the opposing run defense is yeah I was thinking the same thing right because it's a game script thing for him
Starting point is 00:36:58 like they play the Panthers the Browns the Falcons the Titans in their next four games and I think the Panthers and Browns for sure have very good run defenses. I think the other two are mostly pretty bad, but like this week at Carolina, is that a bad matchup for Damian Harris because their run defense has been good or they've been good at preventing fantasy points to running backs? Or is it a good matchup because their offense is so bad? The Patriots are going to run the ball 25 times anyway? That was what I was thinking.
Starting point is 00:37:30 Yeah, I mean, the Panthers are number one against running backs. So it's a very tough matchup in that respect. But yeah, I don't know. But he also has two games against the Bills. He's got a game at the Colts. The Bills games are the two on his remaining schedule that would bother me.
Starting point is 00:37:48 Yeah. And also, I mean, I think he's probably just a... He's a top 10 running back, at least in non-PPR. I don't know what he is in full PPR. I'm going to check right now. But he scored a touchdown
Starting point is 00:37:58 in, what, four or five straight games, Damian Harris? Mm-hmm. He is 13th in full PPR. So, might just be a sell high anyway with 10 catches this year. I'm trying to think of guys
Starting point is 00:38:09 in that range. If you could sell Damian Harris for Clyde, would you do it in full PPR? No. I'm looking for more. What about Chase Edmonds? I'm looking for more. I don't know what you can get because you're not going to get a four net. When I say a guy sell high, that doesn't mean you can get. Cause you're not going to get, I don't want to get, I don't want to get,
Starting point is 00:38:25 when I say a guy sell high, that doesn't mean get, get them off your team. He's going to be miserable the rest of the year. It means try and, you know, get a lot more than what you might be able to get for him in two weeks. How about David Montgomery?
Starting point is 00:38:37 Would you give him up for David Montgomery? If I need to win now? No. If, if Harris is my third running back, then maybe. Okay. All right, and then what's your question? The other one, the Dallas Goddard one,
Starting point is 00:38:51 I'm comparing in my head Goddard to Kyle Pitts. For the season, I think per game, they are very, very close. Now, Goddard obviously had some time with Ertz. I am just a little bit worried with what we saw last week with the Atlanta offense against Carolina. The next three games, the number one corners for those
Starting point is 00:39:16 teams, Lattimore, Diggs, and JC Jackson. I don't know that every team's going to put their number one corner on Kyle Pitts, but we've talked so much about how he's playing outside like a wide receiver. And so I had assumed most of those teams are going to treat him like a wide receiver. And if there's no Ridley there, there's no other wide receivers you need to cover.
Starting point is 00:39:38 I watched, I watched all of it. I watched every route for Pitts. And how often was he double teamed? He was double teamed a lot. I mean, a lot of it was linebacker underneath. And he even said that he got more over-the-top coverage. But Matt Ryan said earlier this year that, well, sorry, Matt Ryan said that Kyle Pitts was getting double teamed more than any rookie he had seen since Julio Jones.
Starting point is 00:40:00 So he was getting double teamed with Ridley on the field. So I don't know anything's that different. I think he's still going to get a ton of targets. I know Scott Fish had said that Chin had been on him a lot. And then when Chin wasn't, it was usually Gilmore was one of the guys that was on him.
Starting point is 00:40:17 So I'm pretty worried about Kyle Pitts without Calvin Ridley. Okay. All right. Well, Dallas, by the way, Pitts is averaging worried about Kyle Pitts without Calvin Ridley. Okay. All right. Well, Dallas, by the way, Pitts is averaging 12.5 PPR points per game. Goddard, 10.3.
Starting point is 00:40:36 Maybe it's closer in non-PPR. I mean, the overall number now, Pitts has 484 yards. Goddard has 358. Okay. To speed things up so we can get to the fantasy cops and the game for Thursday night, I'm just going to throw out some names at you. First of all, I have a trivia question for you. I have three trivia questions sprinkled into the notes today.
Starting point is 00:40:54 Cooper Cup leads the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line. He has 10 of them. Two players are tied with eight targets inside the 10-yard line. Who are they? Can you name one? Mike Evans? No. Ricky Seals-Jones?
Starting point is 00:41:11 No. One is a wide receiver in the NFC North. Adam Dillon? Nope. And one is a wide receiver in the AFC South. Nick Westbrook-Akina. Michael Pittman and Randall Cobb. Randall Cobb, the second in the NFL
Starting point is 00:41:31 in targets inside the 10. And that is it. No fantasy analysis required. You know what I would like, just based on that stat though, and somebody out there can do this. I could if I had more time. But I would like to know,
Starting point is 00:41:45 like maybe you could use mid-season or you could use quarters of the season to break it up. I would like to know how much having received targets inside the red zone early in the year predicts getting targets inside the red zone later in the year.
Starting point is 00:42:02 Well, I'm not going to do that. So you have fun with that. I got three players I want to know if you'd consider selling higher if we're just buying them as legit. And they are Debo Samuel, number two wide receiver per game, Jamar Chase, number three per game in non,
Starting point is 00:42:20 number five in PPR, and Cordaro Patterson. Do you just basically buy them as legit, Debo, Jamar Chase, and Cordaro Patterson, or do you think now is the time to sell? I've tried to make the case that Debo Samuel is a sell high earlier this season, and I'm at the point now where I'm shrugging my shoulders
Starting point is 00:42:38 and saying he is what he is. He's a stud. He's going to continue to be a stud, and I feel that same way about patterson and chase we're at the midpoint of the year um there's been very little in terms of these players slowing down or being bad how many bad games do they have combined maybe seven who the three that you named combined how many bad i don't know i don't know but i'm just on debo we're like he's getting targeted on over 30 of his routes this is the only question dave
Starting point is 00:43:15 jay schmidt typing in our chat is debo a stud if trey lance is the qb that's i don't think he's as much of a stud but i think the 49ers aren't going to get away from him at this point um i just looked this up and it makes me sad but i'm going to say it anyway uh after week eight last year tyler lockett was the number one wide receiver in fantasy right how many red zone targets did he have i don't know i'm talking relative to what chase and debo have done so far this year and how much that guarantees that they will continue to do that oh oh yeah well i remember i remember that last year the seahawks started losing games and it might have been losing one
Starting point is 00:43:58 game that made pete carroll go that's it i want to run the football more. We're not going to let Russ cook. And they changed the way that their offense operated. And that led to a huge decline, not just for Tyler Lockett, but for DK and for Russell Wilson. Let's put it in context with the three players that Adam brought up. Jamar Chase is in a great offense that I think is getting better throwing the football. So I don't think his situation is changing. Cordell Patterson is the biggest part of the Atlanta Falcons offense right now. They're giving him more work. I think he's continuing to improve.
Starting point is 00:44:33 But the idea of Trey Lance taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo, it's probably going to happen at some point. I don't think it's going to happen imminently, but it could be a week 12 thing. That's when you could see a change in Debo Samuel's numbers. So maybe that's, maybe I should amend my statement that Debo is a sell-eye because eventually Trey Lance is going to play and that will make things a little bit worse for the passing game in San Fran. I, I would 100%, um, take top five wide receiver value,
Starting point is 00:45:06 like what they have been for any of these three guys. Well, what about Stefan Diggs? Would you trade them for Diggs? I think I would rather have Diggs than Samuel or Chase rest of season. Okay. Now I want to take a break and then get to the Jets and the Colts,
Starting point is 00:45:24 but there's one player i want to bring up for the specifically for the derrick henry manager and i want to know what you guys think because it's really hard his schedule is great he's involved in the passing game i think he's the goal line guy right now but after all he is miles gaskin and he has not scored a touchdown this year and he does not have a carry inside the five yard line this entire season but malcolm brown leads the team with four so that's why i think it gaskins playing time inside the five he's had three snaps inside the five the last two weeks right right so that's important he's got houston they're 28th against running backs he's got baltimore after that they're 26 but i think that's pretty deceiving i think they're
Starting point is 00:46:02 pretty good against running backs they'll get better better. Then he has the Jets. They're 32nd. Then he has the Panthers. They're first. Then he has the Giants. They're 25th. But at least for the next three weeks, you got Houston and the Jets, and you do have Baltimore. But if you just wanted to, let's just get through the next few weeks and see if we can figure out running backs. Is Myles Gaskin
Starting point is 00:46:20 coming off a bad game against Baltimore, which shouldn't be a huge shock? Is he a buy low? Could he, you know, give you 15 PPR fantasy points per game for the next three weeks or something like that? Just to, just to keep you afloat for now,
Starting point is 00:46:33 miles Gaskin. Yeah. Well, it just depends. I think, yes, if as long as the person who has miles Gaskin views him as not being where he ranks so far this season
Starting point is 00:46:45 because he ranks 19th in PPR amongst running backs. I think he's probably going to be pretty close to 19th the rest of the year, maybe 15th. Now, per game, he might be a little bit worse than that because I don't think the Dolphins haven't had their bye yet. But the thing is, you just look at the running backs that are ahead of him. Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Damian Harris, we just said was a sell high.
Starting point is 00:47:13 Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt's hurt. James Robinson's hurt. Like, I think he's probably going to be a top 20 running back the rest of the way. Okay. I can't say that he'll be a top 20 running back the rest of the way. I don't know't say that he'll be a top 20 running back the rest of the way. I don't know how much patience the coaching staff has left in him.
Starting point is 00:47:29 We see the explosiveness and the speed that he has. Are they going to rush right back to Malcolm Brown as soon as he's eligible to play? Is Savan Ahmed eventually going to get more work? I've been stashing Ahmed on a couple of deep leagues just in case that happens. And even in these last, in the last game or two of the dolphins of ad where Brown hasn't played
Starting point is 00:47:48 Gaskins ranged anywhere from not bad to bad. So I'm not giving up a whole lot for him. The type of overpay I would make for miles Gaskin would be chase Claypool. It would be if I'm really, you know, I would love to turn Dalton Schultz into miles Gaskin. Okay. And a PPR league.
Starting point is 00:48:09 All right. Let's let me take a break here. Trivia question for you. Which NFC South team is second in the NFL in plays run like most plays behind only Kansas city, which NFC South team is second in the NFL in plays? I'll tell you right after this on Fantasy Football Today. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate?
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Starting point is 00:48:52 It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Well, have you guys figured it out during this long commercial break? NFC South team, second in place. You've got the Chiefs as first in place? I do. Oh, not plays per game.
Starting point is 00:49:12 Just total plays. Yes, 551 plays. The reason I was stumped on that is because that's one of the things that I track. Dallas is number one per game. I don't think it's them. I know who it is. I don't think it's them. I know who it is. I don't think it's them.
Starting point is 00:49:29 I'll say Carolina. No, no, no. AFC South. Did I say AFC? You said AFC South. Damn it. AFC South. Oh, now I got to go back and do all my research over.
Starting point is 00:49:41 I'll say the Indianapolis Colts. You are incorrect, sir. It is the Heath? Titans. Tennessee Titans. Second in plays run. Interesting. Okay, let's go to the Jets and the Colts.
Starting point is 00:49:56 Kind of lame stat of the game. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. Nah, kind of lame stat of the game. The Jets allow the most fantasy points to running backs, but the fifth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. And if you look at the only bad game Michael Pittman has had in the last five, it was against Houston. And Carson Wentz threw, I think, 20 times in a blowout victory.
Starting point is 00:50:14 And T.Y. Hilton played. That's true. That's not going to happen this game. T.Y. Hilton only had four targets in that game. So, yes, Taylor's a must-start, obviously. Is Michael Pittman a must start yeah then I think we should spend the rest of the volume
Starting point is 00:50:30 has the trust of Carson Wentz lots of end zone targets no reason to send him whatsoever and we should spend the rest of the of our time on earth talking about Michael Carter in this game here the Colts are third best against running backs they give up let's see,
Starting point is 00:50:49 sorry, they give up 3.87 yards per carry to running backs. The ninth fewest receiving yards per game in running backs. I don't think they're as good as the numbers would indicate. Personally, if you look at the game log, playing against Derrick Henry with a broken foot, basically, or like a ripped-up foot helped the numbers. But, you know, coming off the best game of his season, is Michael Carter now a must-start, Heath? He's a must-start for me this week. I've got him right around, I think, 15th or 16th. He's a top-20 running back.
Starting point is 00:51:20 You might have guys better than him. He was drafted so late that you certainly could if you have two healthy running backs left. But I mostly just think that he might be inefficient. He's going to get a ton of touches. He's led the team in targets each
Starting point is 00:51:36 of the last two games. Mike White's throwing 40% of his passes to running backs. And I don't think the Colts are one of the defenses that matter. Okay. You guys don't think the Colts are one of the defenses that matter. Okay. You guys have him in the top 15 in full PPR and not too far off from that in non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:51:54 So you're starting Michael Carter. Well, Dave has him ranked ahead of Nick Chubb. That would be, that's pretty bold. But I get it in full PPR because Carter could have eight catches and Chubb could have one. Would you start Michael Carter or Damian Harris at Carolina? I'd start Carter.
Starting point is 00:52:15 Carter or Eli Mitchell? I have Mitchell currently ranked higher. If he ends up not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday, that's going to change. Carter. Mitchell and non to change. Carter. Mitchell and non for sure. Carter and PPR. Carter or Boston Scott?
Starting point is 00:52:33 Carter by a bazillion miles. I don't know about a bazillion miles, but by at least three miles. All right, the quarterbacks in this game. Who do you like better, White or Wentz? I trust Wentz more than White. I like the track record that Wentz has over his last five games. Jets are starting to allow some big fantasy points to quarterbacks,
Starting point is 00:52:56 and they haven't exactly played a bunch of studs. Burrow's the best quarterback that they've faced. It's a Thursday night game, so I do get a little bit worried about whether or not Carson Wentz can keep up this string of multi-touchdown games that he has. And he's been really inefficient the last couple of weeks. He's had a terrible yards per attempt
Starting point is 00:53:14 rate. He's been saved by touchdowns. And eventually that's going to come back to bite you. This could be the game that does it. He is not a top 12 quarterback for me. But you can get away with starting him if you don't like your other options, if you're not comfortable with Taysom Hill, if you're not comfortable with Derek Carr, if you're not comfortable with Ryan Tannehill, you could start Wentz and say, okay, at least he's safe.
Starting point is 00:53:34 He should get me right around that 20-point mark. Wentz is the only one I'm actually considering starting in a one-quarterback league. Yeah, I mean, the rankings right now on Mike White are pretty wild. I'll just refresh, make sure I have the latest rankings. But Heath has him 24th. Dave has White 19th. Jamie has him 15th. Ahead of Cousins at Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:53:57 Ahead of Daniel Jones, understandable, I guess. Tannehill at the Rams. Tough matchup there. I mean, the back end of the top 24 here is not so appealing this week. But I don't know. Who really wants to start Mike White? That's...
Starting point is 00:54:13 I mean, I have to tell you that the Bengals' defense was dumb last week. They allowed 184 yards after catch. And that might have been just to the running backs. I think have been just to the running backs. I think it was just to the running backs last week. They couldn't figure out that the Jets were just dinking
Starting point is 00:54:31 and dunking their way down the field. And the Colts are going to know that this is what they do, and they're going to try and dare Mike White to throw it deep. I bet Mike White has at least two deep pass attempts over his first six throws in the game on Thursday. And the Colts have been good. The most yards after catch they've allowed to running backs this year is 54. And that came against the Ravens.
Starting point is 00:54:54 And that was a game that went into overtime. And the running backs of the Ravens were catching the ball into overtime. I'm nervous that there's a big step back coming for all of the jets. The reason why I'm still confidently starting Carter is because he's getting 70% of the snaps. He's had a 29% target share from Mike White. The dude's playing a ton. He's going to get 15 touches.
Starting point is 00:55:13 You have to start running backs like that. Why don't you like Crowder, Dave? Why don't you like Crowder? Because I think the Colts are going to be good at containing him. They've been one of the better teams in terms of not letting slot receivers beat them for big yardage. They've allowed three touchdowns to slot receivers on the year. They allow a high catch rate to slot receivers.
Starting point is 00:55:32 I'm not so sure that Jamison Crowder is going to continue to get that high target volume. Where are you on Crowder, Heath? He's fine. Poor man's Hunter Renfro. You'd rather start Renfro? Oh, yeah. I'd rather start renfro oh yeah i'd rather start renfro for sure um but i think he's fine if he scores a touchdown then he's probably going to be a borderline number two wide receiver if he doesn't then he's going to be a borderline number three would you guys
Starting point is 00:55:57 start crowder or jerry judy or courtland sutton the broncos guys suttonton, for sure. Devontae Parker or Crowder? Parker. Kadarius Tony or Crowder? Kadarius playing. I don't know. You have him ranked. Let's see what his practice participation is today. As long as he practices by Thursday, then I'll start Tony.
Starting point is 00:56:21 I'll move him ahead of Crowder, too. Right now, he's behind Crowder. All right. Because the Colts stink against wide receivers, 26th against them. They face some really, really tough wide receivers. They face great, great
Starting point is 00:56:33 receivers. The Seahawks, the Rams, the Titans, Marquise Brown, Brandon Cooks, Debo Samuel, Titans again. They get crushed by these great receivers. I don't think the middle of the field is where you win against this Colts defense. It depends on what you're looking for.
Starting point is 00:56:51 If you're looking, if you're so sure that Jameson Crowder is going to get 8, 9, 10 targets, something like that, you should start them. Colts allow the third highest catch rate to receivers who line up in the slot. 83%. Very high. But they allow the third lowest yards after catch to receivers who line up in the slot at 3. Very high. But they allow the third lowest yards after catch to receivers who line up in the
Starting point is 00:57:06 slot at 3.7. Their 10th best on the year in yards after catch allowed on passes traveling up to 10 yards in the air. They are good in that short area. They get beat deeper. That's not usually Crowder's bag. Crowder has eight or more targets in four of his last 12 games.
Starting point is 00:57:23 Alrighty then. How about Naeem Hines and Mo'Ally Cox? I think that'll basically sum it up, right? No, thank you. Oh, wait, no, Ty Johnson. Ty Johnson, if you're desperate for a running back in full PPR, he works as, he's a possible flex even in full PPR. He's not playing, obviously, nearly as much as Carter,
Starting point is 00:57:43 but doing the same types of things. Man, what a strange show today was. Mo Alleycox, by the way, I'm starting in a 14-team league. The Jets are really bad against tight ends, but it was serious. I missed the only option on waivers. And it could be Jack Doyle. Could be.
Starting point is 00:58:00 Colts DST is top eight. Start them. Heath's way too low on them, I'm sure. Okay. Let me see if there's anything else pressing here. Some of the most traded players were Amari Cooper,
Starting point is 00:58:19 Eli Mitchell, Zach Ertz, James Connor. Yeah, I don't. Makes sense. Yeah, so go ahead. I would definitely sell high on Connor. I don't know what the Ertz thing that is happening is,
Starting point is 00:58:41 but I wouldn't particularly. The Cooper one's the one that I struggle with I know that's people trying to sell high off a good game I gotta make the case for you I want you to tell me what you think this is the sell high case for Cooper their next
Starting point is 00:58:56 let's say their entire schedule are they gonna have close games against Denver against Atlanta at Kansas City against the Raiders No, their entire schedule. Are they going to have close games against Denver, against Atlanta, at Kansas City, against the Raiders, at the Saints, at Washington, at the Giants, home against Washington, and then at Arizona?
Starting point is 00:59:16 I think at least half of those games have the potential to be 30-pass attempt-type games. It's just the case. And that's when Cooper has really struggled. It was a five-game stretch where he didn't even get to 70 yards. We had one game with more than three catches where I totally understood why people didn't want him on the team. If you look at the two good games he's had week one at Tampa Bay last week against, uh, against Minnesota with a backup quarterback, but a lot more pass volume. And I think that's the concern
Starting point is 00:59:42 people have just, just do they bludgeon these teams? And especially in the fantasy playoffs where they're facing Washington and the Giants, and they just don't need Cooper. They don't throw enough to him, which is what we saw for five straight games, basically. I like it. I think that makes sense. I don't know that I believe it, you know, because I still think in those five games, Dak was throwing fewer than I would really actually expect. Right. No, but I tend to believe that.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I think the Cowboys have proven that if they have the chance to be balanced or even a little more run-heavy in a game, they'll take it. And you just think that argument applies a lot more to Amari Cooper than CeeDee Lamb? No, that's the thing. I think it applies to both of them. I think you can absolutely make the case that they could both be sell-high candidates. I think it's a great call. Well, it's not my call. It's just the case.
Starting point is 01:00:32 I think if you could sell Cooper... That's right. You said the Cowboys are going to stink. If you could sell Cooper for... Would you sell him for Miles Gaskin? No. No, right. You couldn't do that.
Starting point is 01:00:42 I'd look for gravy. I'd look for a lot more than Gaskin. How about... I i mean it's so tough with running backs like there's just like there's the the good ones and the bad ones and there's not not much in between would you trade him for david montgomery probably i would trade him for montgomery and gaskin okay would you okay would you trade him for kyle pitts cooper pitts cooper if i needed a tight end and make the switch and then connor is another is a similar story like his his carries and the score are very very closely related the bigger the blowout the more carries for connor and if he
Starting point is 01:01:20 scores every week i guess it won't matter but he's not going to. So this is an interesting sell high here. Well, I, but I think I don't know that that's necessarily the case. As far as I don't mean that what you said was wrong. I don't know that that's the sell high case. I think the sell high case is that I thought Zach Ertz could be a real problem for Rondale Moore and Chase Edmonds. And in the passing game, he has had an impact. But I think the bigger problem is that Zach Ertz getting more targets has led or correlated with Chase Edmonds getting more rush attempts and James Conner playing fewer snaps.
Starting point is 01:02:01 He's played 30% of the snaps and 37% of the snaps the past two weeks. One of those games, they won 31-5. The other they lost. You look at his game logs, and it kind of just looks like there was that three or four-week stretch where Chase Edmonds was hurt, and Connor played a lot more snaps. And the last two weeks, Chase Edmonds
Starting point is 01:02:22 has been more of the lead running back than James Connor has been, even though Edmonds hasn't been involved in the passing game. He's just been saved because he scored three touchdowns on 15 carries the past two weeks. So he is a sell high in your mind? 100%. I would happily take Myles Gaskin over James Conner. Okay. Then there's just one more thing that we've got to do before we get out of here. We got to hear from the fantasy cops. We got a great one.
Starting point is 01:02:50 This just in to the fantasy cops. Hold on. Got to make sure I find it. Okay. Dear Pete, Jason, Jonathan, and Josina. CBS Sports Insiders. Okay. I am a time fantasy football manager who is trying to tank in my 14 team dynasty league excellent my record my record last week was two and five
Starting point is 01:03:14 i played a fellow tanking team last week he was one and six this same one and six manager is also the league commissioner since i beganing, the commissioner would remind me and others about the rules of tanking, which included not starting players who were inactive. As it turned out, this fellow tanker started Pharoah Brown in our matchup this past week. Who is Pharoah Brown? He's a Texans
Starting point is 01:03:37 tight end who was inactive in week 8. The commissioner broke his own rule and started a player who would give him a guaranteed 0. I wound up outscoring the one and six team and therefore won the game. The commissioner offered to replace Brown in his lineup with someone who did play, but I think because the commissioner violated his own rule, I should automatically get the loss and the one and six manager should be forced to accept victory as a consequence. Either that, or he should be kicked out of the league. Signed, Big Fat Vampire from a village
Starting point is 01:04:08 40 miles southeast of Chicago. Where's that, Dave? It's Olympia Fields. This is Dave's email. In case you haven't figured it out. David Heath tank-a-thoned last week. Heath cheated. What say you, Heath?
Starting point is 01:04:23 First and foremost, the clear and obvious penalty for this infraction is that the commissioner cannot be allowed to remain in office someone else must become the commissioner immediately he should be fired from his post um and i will just tell you that I feel such great regret for ever tanking. And I am so irritated with Dave for what he's doing in this league because he's trying to follow my lead. Only the thing is Dave has a fantastic team. If Dave had not chosen to tank, he would currently be in the playoffs. If Dave played his best lineup he'd probably be the three or four seed at the end of the year and he's just doing this i i don't i think despite me maybe maybe himself a little bit no no no but i'm doing it if i may just butt in
Starting point is 01:05:19 i'm doing it because i took on a lot of injuries early in the year and i looked at the better teams in the league and i just thought to myself there's no way I'm winning the league this year. And so if I'm not going to win the league this year, I might as well do my best to get, you know, the earliest possible draft pick I can. And then someone offered me, Chris Towers offered me a first round pick for Tom Brady. And I had to take that deal. And that really put me over the top in taking. So I've got two first round picks. I've got a loaded roster.
Starting point is 01:05:46 I'm trying to build a juggernaut in my dynasty league. I want to win this league two years in a row, three years in a row. I want to dominate. And I'm going to be in position to do it now with two first-round picks. What's your record going to be? Who's going to end up winning or losing this matchup, Heath?
Starting point is 01:06:02 What's it going to be, Kamish? Oh, I'm not taking a loss. But you started an inactive player. Isn't that the rule? I did. You broke the rules. Half of the league started an inactive player last week. That's the problem with this stupid rule and this stupid commissionering.
Starting point is 01:06:17 Every stinking league we're in, every stinking week, someone starts someone who's not playing. What is the rule? It has to be more true as the season goes on. But in a redraft league, that's not really the concern of the commissioner.
Starting point is 01:06:32 Well, it is for competitive balance if that's what we're all pretending to be concerned about. But I think competitive balance in a tanking situation is you don't just want to have teams in your league start a lineup full of guys who are going to be zero you don't want alex smith as somebody's starting quarterback you don't want adrian peterson you currently have joe flacco as your starting quarterback what like you currently have joe flacco started as your starting quarterback i gotta figure out
Starting point is 01:06:58 what i'm gonna do there this week so i had to drop cooper rush i I figured that Rush isn't going to play. Maybe it's a disaster. Upgraded to the backup nominated. And I will 100% be resigning as commissioner at the end of the year. Okay. Well, I'm glad about it. This league. Quick Apple podcast questions.
Starting point is 01:07:17 Gambino. You'd like to be the commissioner of it, Adam. No. Which wide receiver one would you try to trade Diggs for in PPR? So I'm trying to trade Diggs straight up for another wide receiver? Yeah. This is not the time to do that. Well, no. I mean, is now the time to trade Lamb for Diggs?
Starting point is 01:07:39 He's wanting to trade Diggs away. Yeah. No, I don't. If you have Stephon Diggs and you want a wide receiver, what would you trade Diggs for. Yeah. If you have Stefan Diggs and you want a wide receiver, what would you trade Diggs for? You have a wide receiver. Justin Jefferson. Tyreek Hill.
Starting point is 01:07:54 Good luck. Which wide receiver would you try to trade Ridley for? One who's going to play on Sundays. And from Don, who would you hold on to at running back between Michael Carter, Zach Moss, and David Johnson?
Starting point is 01:08:11 Not David Johnson. Carter's first up. Carter? Okay. All right, everybody, we're out of here. Thanks so much. I wish I had time for email. I had a lot of stuff here. Michael Thomas threw it off, but that's okay.
Starting point is 01:08:24 We have more shows throughout the week. More time to talk trade. And of course, Starter Sit tomorrow for Dave and Heath and Ben. I'm Adam. Talk to you later.

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