Fantasy Football Today - Michael Thomas Profile: Still Elite? Good Fit with Jameis? (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2022

What does Michael Thomas have left in the tank and how does he fit with Jameis Winston? Jacob Gibbs has the metrics you won't find anywhere else to help us answer these questions.  You can also follow the full-length Fantasy Football Today podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-podcast/id261735167 Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, You can listen to Fantasy Football Today in 5 on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast." Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. On Fantasy Football Today in 5, we're profiling Michael Thomas. Yes, Michael Thomas was the number one wide receiver in fantasy

just three seasons ago. Historic season for him. And we have barely seen him since. And Jacob asked me before we got on the show, do you have any thoughts on Michael Thomas? He is the most recent player that I drafted in the Scott Fish Bowl. I drafted him about three hours ago. So I am all in on Michael Thomas.

I'm on 100% of my rosters. So I'm hoping for good things. What can you tell me about Michael Thomas? I'm not all in on Michael Thomas. I'm on 100% of my rosters. So I'm hoping for good things. What can you tell me about Michael Thomas? I'm not all in. That is scary. But I think if Thomas is healthy, there are definitely reasons to be excited. The first thing I want to get into is his splits with Drew Brees on and off the field. I think people generally expect him to see, you know, see a big,

you know, drop in his numbers because he's lost Drew Brees. You know, I think a lot of people think that Brees really, you know, elevated Thomas's efficiency and like really was, you know, kind of the reason he was a body super one. But that's not what I found. So Brees played every game in 2016 and 17. So we're going to be looking at 2018, 19, and 20. During that time, Thomas ran 380 routes without Drew Brees at quarterback. Typically, the route total that I use to qualify receivers is 350 in a season. So it's not an insignificant sample size here. And in that sample, Thomas has drawn a target on 30% of his routes

and averaged 2.7 yards per route run without Drew Brees. With Drew Brees during that time, he has a 29% target per hour run rate and a 2.7 yard per hour run rate. So nearly identical. Really, Brees has not affected things at all, at least in this sample over the past three years that we've seen Thomas. You know what, not just the basic stats. His pace is per game, 17 game, whatever,water with tasem hill elite number one receiver the only difference is when tasem

hill he didn't catch a touchdown but he he had like a 32 percent target share something crazy with hill but he has put up numbers no matter who the quarterback is yeah really all the data that i found suggests that breeze boosted alvin Kamara's numbers much more than Thomas. So I think what you're hitting on there makes a lot of sense. On those routes without Brees, Thomas ran much deeper routes and saw an almost 20% increase to his average depth of target. This is something I think you and I actually discussed last offseason, that Thomas' ADOT has increased for three straight seasons from 2019 to 2020, 21.

And he really had begun to, yeah, 2018 to 2020, really began to dominate the air yardage shares during that time. So when on the field in 2020, Thomas demanded 45% of the available air yards. If you expand that to 2019 for a larger sample size, still 43% of the

air yards, um, only six players had a rate above 43% last year, um, for reference. Um, in 2018, Thomas only saw 31% of the air yards. Um, and that was pretty typical when Drew Brees was around, he was in that 30 to 40% range, but we've seen him be able to push up to 40, 45% lately. Um, and really all the data we have suggested that Brees, you know, he helped him find the ends of more often pile up catches, but he kind of put a cap on his downfield route running opportunities. And the reason I bring that up is because Thomas has really, really been excellent when he's been allowed to run downfield routes. So since 2018 on routes or on targets that came 10 yards or fewer, he was 53% above league average in terms of yard per hour and right um on targets

came 10 to 15 yards intermediate targets he was 133 above league average which was the best in the nfl no one averaged more yards per hour run on intermediate targets since 2018 the thomas on 15 plus yards 71 above league average so his worst actually was short yardage which i don't think people realize most people think of him as a short yardage weapon, but he's been significantly better when running intermediate and deep routes. Interesting. Okay. And Jameis wasn't exactly airing out. He wasn't the Jameis of old, but we know that last year with the Saints, but we know that he could do that. And that's the last thing I'm going to talk about Jameis Winston's tendencies. He did get sort of breezified last year, but what can you tell

us about Jameis' tendencies? Yeah, so Jameis, obviously, we've seen in the past, has been somebody who really likes to target a deep and intermediate area of the field. It wasn't quite the same with New Orleans, but he still was a little bit more aggressive than Joe Breeze. And then I just want to focus on his passer rating. So not only his tendencies in throwing downfield, but how efficient he was when he did, um, uh, over the past three seasons on short passes, he's 14% below, um, the league average on passer rating on deep best. He's 5% above the league average. And then intermediate where we just talked about Thomas has been the best receiving the NFL, uh, 18% above the league average. Um, that's where Jamis has been at his best. And so just, it's a, I don't, I don't want to put too much faith into it because we haven't seen him much over the past couple of seasons. And he has been at his best. And so just, I don't want to put too much faith into it

because we haven't seen him much over the past couple of seasons and he has been different with New Orleans than we saw in Tampa Bay. But that has been where he's been at his best, intermediate and then deep and then shorts is worse. Exact same for Michael Thomas.

Wow. All right. It seems like a good fit. You know, the other thing I've said to you before the show was I feel like if he plays, he's going to be good. I just don't know how much he's going to play.

He's been so beat up for two straight seasons. He's 29. I can't think of a comp for that. I can't if he plays, he's going to be good. I just don't know how much he's going to play. He's been so beat up for two straight seasons. He's 29. I can't think of a comp, really. I can't think of an all-pro receiver who's missed all but seven games over two seasons, sat out a full season, came back with a new quarterback, a new head coach. It's such a unique situation.

They added Chris Olave. They added Jarvis Landry. But I think, you know, I still think he's going to be really good if he plays. Just hope he can be healthy. All right, Jacob, thank you very much. Appreciate your time. Have a great weekend, everybody.

We'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today. Bye.