Fantasy Football Today - Mid-Round WRs Part One! (07/06 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 5, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts You need to know which wide receivers to draft when you're on the clock in Rounds 4-6. We're going to help you by taking a long look at WRs 20-29 in our PPR consensus rankings. Today, we'll mostly focus on the first five of this group, but we'll start by comparing this group of 10 WRs (2:15) to the previous 10 who are taken in Rounds 2-3 and questioning the upside of this group (6:00) ... Who are our favorites in this group (16:00)? There is some love for D.J. Moore and Tee Higgins, but it's not necessarily shared by all of us. Speaking of Higgins, let's start with him (17:05)! There is a lot to say about Higgins who is the King of the Aizer Stats! Next up we talk about Moore (27:05) and why it's so hard to know what to expect from him ... We spend time on George Pickens (31:10), DK Metcalf (42:00) and DeVonta Smith (49:15). Pickens has a great opportunity ahead of him, while Metcalf and Smith might need an injury to a teammate to really outperform their ADP ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays at his feet. This's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races. And he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's time to talk about a very, very important topic. Mid-round wide receivers. Who to take in rounds four, five, six. Once we get to 20 through 29, I'm looking at an hour of consensus rankings. Just realized I'm wearing my glasses. I'm going to take those off. Sorry about that. Who are the wearing glasses? I get the ring light in there. It looks weird.

So anyway, we are talking about the group right after and we did a whole episode on this but you got Nico Collins, Jalen Waddle, Drake London, Brandon IU, Cooper Cup, Deebo Samuel, and some others. And then we've got another tier starting with T. Higgins at 20 all the way down to Stefan Diggs at 29. That's 10 wide receivers we're going to talk about.

And when I say 20 to 29, I'm talking about, again, our PPR consensus rankings. I will compare them to our PPR average draft position on CBSSports.com. And I'll tell you guys right now, there's nobody in this group that has a wider range between his consensus ranking and his ADP than Tee Higgins, the first guy. He's 20th in consensus ranking. He's 29th in ADP. And he's 28th, 29th, 30th in like three or four different websites that I looked at in ADP. So Heath, that jumps out at me. We like T. Higgins a lot more than the world does. And this is the thing.

Like you talk about it's this huge gap from 20th to 29th. I think I talked about T. Higgins two weeks ago or something when he signed his contract and I was looking at his target share. I thought, you know, I'm just a little bit too low on T Higgins target share. I think I bumped it from 20 to 21% or 21 to 22%. And he went from wide receiver 29 to wide receiver 14 in my projections. Oh man. Now that's not how big that group is. Like the difference between wide receiver and wide receiver 29 is nothing. I didn't say that it was necessarily, but I thought

that maybe there was a difference between the guys in the wide receiver 10 to 19 range and then this group. You can tell me if you agree with that, but the Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Jalen Waddell, Devante Adams, Drake London.

I know you're not going to agree on every name. Who else? Michael Pittman, Chris Olave, the 49ers guys. That group compared to 20 through 29, which is T. Higgins, DJ Moore, who we're lower on than consensus, than like everyone else. George Pickens, DK Metcalf, Devante Smith, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, and Stefan

Diggs. I said a lot of names there, Dave, but if I had to say one thing, I think that not everyone's going to fall into this category, but I think we have less upside, less non-injury upside in this group than we do in the previous

group. Sure. But I still think that there are players that you can look at and say, well, they're still upside and you want to assign a number to it of a per game average, call it 15. Because I think if you've got a receiver that you named off that has a chance to hit 15 plus PPR points per game, you separate them. And the first name that stands out to me is DJ Moore. And the fact that last year he had a monster season as the number one receiver in Chicago, Justin Fields as his

quarterback, huge target volume, huge target share came through in a major way. Now there is competition for targets in Chicago. I still think he's the best receiver there. I say he got a quarterback upgrade going from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams. The one thing that holds me back from putting him even higher in my rankings is that I think that he will lose that target volume a little bit. I don't think he's catching over 90 balls like he did last year, but I think he can get to 75 plus. I still think he can score a lot of touchdowns. He's Chicago's best all around receiver.

And I'm happy to take him when he falls to that late round three, early round four range. And he separates from, for me ahead of all the other receivers that you've named. So I, first off, I should say like, if we're talking that the 10-19 versus the 20-29, Tee Higgins and Calvin Ridley are both in the 10-19 range for me. Calvin Ridley wouldn't be in this 20-29 range for Dave or Jamie. He only makes it because I've inflated his ranking too much.

You can't watch'm up there um i but i don't have any trouble at all like why can't amari cooper be at 15 fantasy points per game why can't amari cooper be a top 12 wide receiver you look at his target volume he's never done it per per game he's never finished higher than 15th per game but you well i meant 15 points per game is what david said yeah you're sorry but you said why can't he be top 12 he's never finished for a full season higher than 15th per game in Murray Cooper. Well, right, but we've got a handful of guys like actually ranked as top 12 wide receivers who have never done it. Yeah, that's not holding us back. They're not 30 years old. They're like Garrett Wilson and Drake Lund. It's a fair point.

And to be fair, he would have been like wide receiver six or something if you took out the Dorian Thompson-Robinson games. He was so good when it wasn't DTR at quarterback. But do you think that most of this group... And okay, this is a good episode to watch, by the way, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, because we are asking you to sort of remember 10 names. Here they are. T. Higgins, DJ Moore, George Pickens, DK Metcalf, Devontae Smith, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs.

Similar upside or clearly less upside than Nico Collins, Debo Samuel, Brandon Ayuk, Jalen Waddell, et cetera. Guys who have had a season. A lot of those guys that were not in the 10 names that you listed who have had 16 plus PPR points per game. Although Diggs has Cooper has there's there are some receivers that have hit that number in this group that we're focusing. Like I don't think that Nico Collins has more ups.

I have Nico Collins ranked ahead of Tankdale and I think his projection should be slightly ahead of Tankdale. I don't think Nico Collins has ahead of Tank Dill, and I think his projection should be slightly ahead of Tank Dill. I don't think Nico Collins has more upside than Tank Dill. I think DJ Moore has definitely shown us that he has that upside. I think George Pickens, without Deontay Johnson and with a major quarterback upgrade, DK Metcalf has shown us that upside.

So I don't really. Okay. I almost wonder if it's worth making the first point on each of these receivers do they have the upside great yeah let's go through it that's a great one i'm gonna put that in the notes here do they have the upside what is the upside top 12 let's use the barometer i just gave 15 plus p Okay. Let me just see where that would have ranked last year. 15 points per game was wide receiver 19. That was Amari Cooper.

He was at 15.1. So I think we got to bump it up more than that. I think it's gotta be like top 12. All right. So who's 12th? Do you have in front of you? Tank Dell was 16.5, 12th. So Tank Dell, does he have the upside

to do what he did last year no but he's got stefan digs there now you know like doesn't that cut into his upside i don't have tank dell is 12th in ppr points per game where do you have him 18th he's he's exactly at 15 ppr points per game tank dell this is awesome yes um so yes i think that tank dell has the upside and dj moore has the wait wait let's go one by one can they finish top 12 let's just say that can they do they have top 12 upside t higgins top 12 defined as 16 PPR points per game one of the 12 best one of the 12 highest scoring per game

yes Higgins has never shown that with Chase on the field if Burrow and Higgins stay healthy then he has that kind of upside DJ Moore yes

absolutely has it yes kind of upside. All right. DJ. I don't see it. Yes. George absolutely has it. Pickens. Yes. I hesitate a little to say yes. So I will not say yes. Uh, DK Metcalf.

I hesitate too. I think it takes, I think it takes a little bit of projection for both Pickens and Metcalf. I do think that this is one of my problems with the upside discussion. If you're talking about a player's upside, we should do some projection. I think we're more willing to do that with guys that we like than with guys that we don't like. When we're talking about does he have the upside to do this that shouldn't be what our expectation is for them correct well then in that case every single one of these guys has the upside i don't know that i believe that christian kirk does

or or stefan i don't think davante smith does if I would agree he probably doesn't if everybody else stays healthy. Right. We need to remove the, well, what if somebody gets hurt idea from every single one of these equations? Because it's obvious that if Dallas Goddard gets hurt, we talked about this on our last show, Devante Smith to the moon, he's going to easily make it. And if Jamar Chase gets hurt, then of course,

T. Higgins is going to see an uptick in, in workload. Yeah. So it's, it's non-injury upside. Can they be top 12? We seem pretty on the fence with DK Metcalf. We're probably leaning.

No. At Devante Smith, uh, Christian Kirk or leaning. No. Right. Yeah. I think he nailed that one.

I think that's an easy. No, I'm not even sure. Christian Kirk has injury top 12 upside, but he's got, he's the safe guy maybe in this group. I don't know if there's. I'm not even sure Christian Kirk has injury top 12 upside. He's the safe guy maybe in this group. I don't know if there's any scenario where he finishes top 12. Yeah, he's a real safe

wide receiver three. Tank Dell, non-injury top 12 upside? Absolutely. Yes. Calvin Ridley? I think so. I think so too. Amari Cooper yes

Stefan Diggs no it's really hard so this is the problem that I've got is that we're going to rank Nico Collins like he's going to make 16 PPR points per game we just said Tank Dell has the upside to get there how can you say that Stefan Diggs no longer has the upside to get to 16 PPR points per game. We just said Tank Dell has the upside to get there. How can you say that Stefan Diggs no longer has the upside to get to 16 PPR points per game when he was getting 20 plus

years prior to 2023? It's the years prior part for me. Have you watched him? Do you think he slowed down last year? I don't think Stefan Diggs is currently as good a wide receiver as Nico Collins or Tank Dell. Okay. And I think if the Bills thought he was, they wouldn't have traded him away. Unless he was just such a problem off the field that they needed to move on, and they wouldn't have been the first team to have identified that. And then the Texans did their best to try and rectify that situation by appeasing him contractually.

So I wonder if there's a little bit of that mixed in with Stefan Diggs. But I do not see Stefan Diggs going to Houston and sucking up nine targets per game and leaving very little for Nico and Tank Dell. That would surprise me. And I think that's the problem, I guess, is I can see Tank Dell or Nico Collins not needing 150 targets to be, I could see them having one of those wild efficiency years where they're a top 12 wide receiver without 150 targets. I don't think Stefan digs is going to do that ever again. I'm feeling you on that too,

because I think digs role changes. I've talked about this before in Houston. I think he's there to work the slot mostly, win on third downs, win in the middle of the field. Those types of receivers typically do not have a lot of explosive plays. Yeah. He's actually been one of the few guys, and I was doing my Drake London research. Stephon Diggs has been one of the few guys that has shown up as top 12 receiver with a pretty low yak per catch. He's one of the worst in terms of the guys that, that finishes top 12 consistently, not as bad as Drake London, but a pretty low yak for, for Diggs. Well, Drake London, that hasn't been just a one year thing. It's been like three or four years, I think in Buffalo. Yeah. I'm just saying that. Yeah. London's been even three of four years, I think, in Buffalo. Yeah, I'm just saying, yeah.

London's been even worse than Diggs, but right, not even close to top 12. Yeah. That doesn't mean that Diggs isn't a great or wasn't a great player, wasn't an explosive player, just not a yak guy. I think Diggs is more Deontay Johnson at this stage of his career, and there's not going to be the opportunity for Deontay Johnson-type targets with both Collins and Dell there. All right, I got to take a break. What's Deontay Johnson type targets with both Collins and Dell there. All right.

I got to take a break. What's Deontay Johnson type targets. What number are you assigning for that? 10 a game. Oh yeah. What I meant by that was he has a game. Deontay Johnson's when he's been a good fantasy wide receiver, it's been because of targets,

not because of you don't think Deontay gets 10 a game. I don't not. No, I to in a game i don't not know i think those days are gone okay okay okay i gotta take a break and uh the thing about digs is it's probably going to come down to if you think he's washed up or not uh you can make the case i remember i think i cited an article that was written on cbssports.com saying why he's not washed up, but it was Joe Brady's offense that just didn't work for Stefan Diggs. Uh, so, and it's pretty obvious.

I mean, his, his decline started when the coordinator change happened. I don't know. It was because of it, you know, causation, correlation,

all that stuff. Smarter people know how to say that better than I do, but that's the 10.3 PPR points per game in seven games with Joe Brady. Yeah. And he still had over eight targets per game. Just the way he was used was different. The way the offense ran just didn't seem to fit his skillset. Uh,

at least according to one very good article that I read on our website. Okay. We'll take a break, come back and get into these guys a little bit more. We'll be right back on FFT. It's hockey season and you can get anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. Well, almost, almost anything. So no, you can't get an ice rink on Uber Eats. But iced tea, ice cream, or just plain old ice? Yes, we deliver those.

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Trick question. Of course, it's the last call for fall. So don't miss out on your fall faves. Next stop Starbucks. In this range of 10 wide receivers, 20 through 29 on our consensus, PPR rankings, Higgins, DJ Moore In this range of 10 wide receivers, 20 through 29 in our consensus PPR rankings, Higgins, DJ Moore, Pickens, Metcalf,

Devante Smith, Christian Kirk, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs. Should be noted, Higgins, I said, has that big gap in ADPs. 29th in ADPs, 20th in the rankings. DJ Moore is the first guy off the board in ADP. Wide receiver, 18. You might see him a little bit

earlier than that in some other ADPs. Then DK Metcalf. Then Devante Smith. They're 18, 19, and 21, respectively. I just want some names here, not analysis, because we're going to break down each player one by one. Who are, let's say, two or three of your favorites

in this range? Heath? T. Higgins, Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore. Dave, favorites? Moore, you already know, is going to be one of my favorites. I think DK Metcalf deserves some attention as being one of my favorites from the group. Pickens is probably third for me. Okay.

Who do you avoid, Dave? Higgins and Diggs are probably the two. DK and Diggs, I would say. Okay. Yeah, look, if Diggs were going 29th, then you probably wouldn't avoid him. He's wide receiver 25 in our ADP. He is wide receiver 17 in NFC ADP, Stefan Diggs.

So it's another group that's going to have some interchangeable parts. Let's start with T. Higgins. Start with him because he's the highest in our consensus rankings. He's the highest

in our consensus rankings because Heath has him in the top 15. And oh boy, do I have an Acer stat for you you but i am not going to start with my thoughts on t higgins we already heard he's one of your favorites and he's one of the guys that dave avoids although i would say at adp dave would not be avoiding him at wide receiver 29 um but go ahead heath and make the case uh no i think we should like this is arguably the most Acer statable player in the NFL, like between Jamar.

I has what's our sample size of T Higgins playing more than half of the it was basically all of the 2021 season when he finished, I think, around wide receiver 15 or wide receiver 13 per game or something like that, which is the hope I have for T Higgins. But over the last two seasons, T Higgins has played fewer than 60% of the snaps in seven games. And that's not even counting the games that he just flat out missed. Games that he started or played in, but played fewer than 60% of the snaps. Seven times for Tee Higgins in the last two seasons, last three seasons, sorry, last three seasons.

I looked at the other wide receivers going in this range who have been in the league for three or more years, and how many times they played 60% or fewer of the snaps. Seven times for Higgins. Cooper Cup, one. Terry McLaurin, one. Devontae Smith, one. DK Metcalf, one.

Stefan Diggs, one. Christian Kirk, four, but kind of just one because the first three were the first three games of the 2021 season with Arizona. Then he became like a regular player and then he got hurt with Jacksonville. Then he became like a regular player.

And then he got hurt with Jacksonville. My point is like Higgins. Yeah, it's weird. You just don't get that many games. He's been a guy who's been in and out of the game. He's left a lot of games early with injury. He's played with a crappy Joe Burrow. And then when Burrow finally seemed to get right, Higgins was out of the lineup for some of those games last year.

He's terrific when Jamar Chase is not there. There's been, I think, five games he scored over 20 points in three of them. So you do have that injury upside. But I worry, Heath, that it's easy for me to make the case he's a high-end number two receiver that just had a bad year with Burrow last year, whatever. I worry that I'm sort of overlooking some of the negatives with him. Well, yeah. No, I think that I'm sort of overlooking some of the negatives with him. Well, yeah. No, I think that is – I've talked about this before. For the most part, I project players for 17 full games.

I think like with late – lately we've seen Keenan Allen struggle with some injuries, but early in his career, Allen had some injury problems and got that label and then had like a five-year run where he was just healthy and one of the best wide receivers in football. I have not decided in my projections or rankings process that T. Higgins is an elevated injury risk. And so that is why I rank him. I think if you want to trust him as a healthy wide receiver with Joe Burrow

in what we think is one of the best offenses in the NFL, you should rank him at the very worst as a top 20 guy. It's just really, I think the discussion with Higgins comes down to how concerned are you about his injury history? And Burs, right? And Burroughs. Right. Yeah.

And I'm not, I'm not, I don't, I don't see really anybody discounting Burroughs though. Or Chase, right? Right. And so I do think like your tolerance for Higgins injury risk should determine how you rank him. I think the 29th wide receiver off the board by ADP is way too low. Even if you're scared of the injuries,

you shouldn't have him that low. Is he not just like a safe floor type of wide receiver? No, he's the exact opposite so far because he doesn't, who knows when he's playing. Okay, so that makes him even worse than a safe floor receiver which maybe means that the adp is dead on with somebody like t higgins but he has the reason he's not just a safe floor wide receiver

is he has enormous upside like he had an enormous upside tied to jamar chase how many games does he have in his career i where Jamar Chase has played and T. Higgins has had a monster stat line? Well, I'm not the Acer stater, Dave, so I can't. I can tell you. I mean, basically. How many games did Chase and Higgins play together last year? A pretty good amount.

I would say like nine or ten. But that includes games without Burrow. Yeah, okay. So this is what I put. Is he good with Jamar Chase? In 2021 and 2022, removing three games that T. Higgins left with injuries in 2022, Higgins played 23 games with Jamar Chase over those two seasons.

In those 23 games with Jamar Chase over those two seasons. In those 23 games, he scored 15 or more PPR fantasy points only 10 times. But he scored 13 or more in 15 of 23 games. He averaged 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game in 2022 in games he played with Chase, removing the injury games. That would have made him wide receiver 13 per game. He also averaged exactly 15.7 PPR points per game in 2021, which made him wide receiver 13 per game. And that is always how I look at T Higgins. I don't see huge upside with Chase on the field. I see a top 15 wide receiver when he is healthy and Burrow is healthy and Jamar Chase is healthy. But the fact that he's going wide receiver 29, I said to Dave before, he is healthy and Burrow is healthy and Jamar Chase is healthy. But the fact that he's going wide receiver 29,

I said to Dave before, he is one of my absolute favorite values in drafts right now. So just looking at the game logs for last year, one of the last games that he and Chase played together, he scored 22 PPR fantasy points. So was that the Minnesota game? That was the Minnesota game.

So what happened there, Jamar Chase got hurt in the fourth quarter. And after that, T. Higgins had like 30 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime of that game. He then followed that up with a huge game at Pittsburgh in week 16. Well, yes. Also week two last year, he scored 29 PPR fantasy points in a game that Pittsburgh in week 16. Well, yes. Also, week two last year, he scored 29 PPR fantasy points in a game that Jamar Chase played.

I'm just giving you the averages. He has not been an elite player with Chase on this. No, no. We're not talking... You said he's been basically 15 fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2022. 15.7. Right.

Good. So that should have him above this group. Yes, 100%. 2021 and 2022. 15.7. Right. Good. So that should have him above this group. Yes. A hundred percent. He should be in the, in the 10 to 19 range at that number. So Dave, and I just going to say,

we can't talk about everyone as long as this, but since I think it was an interesting that you guys were so different on him, I think Dave, why did you say Higgins is not one of your guys here? Because I, I don't see that upside as a reason to draft him. Yes.

It's possible that he can have some blow up games with Jamar Chase. And it's definitely reasonable to say that if he's the number one receiver for Joe Burrow and maybe even for Jake Browning, that he can go out and put up 18, 20, 22 PPR points per game. But in a standard situation, the scenario that we're laying out, where Burrow's okay, Chase is Chase, Teagans is the number two receiver there. He's probably right around seven targets per game. His target per route run average two of the past three years has been 20.3% or lower.

And I'm nervous about buying into Teagans too much just because of the upside. When the downside last year was ugly. I think if you look at him and you say, okay, 13 PPR points per game without breaking a sweat. And we know what the upside is. And we know the downside is he could miss two or three games or it could leave two or three games early with an injury.

That could especially be the case this year when he's trying to get a bag. I think that, I think that's the safe way to look at T Higgins. I don't think it's worth looking at T Higgins as a top 20 wide receiver and saying, all right, this is a guy who can help me win most weeks. I think there are more, there are a lot of other receivers with a better case for that than T Higgins. Okay. Yeah. I do think it really just comes down to how much you put into last year because he was, he was definitely a top 20 wide receiver with chase the two years before last year.

And then the Bengals were a disaster last year. Where did he finish in PPR points per game? I know how many PPR points per game he had in 2022 was 13.8. I mean, this is the problem. This is the problem with that. He played three games where he barely and this is why like we were joking if there are azer stats exists for anyone it should be t higgins in 2022 he played

three games where he probably scored a combined i don't know eight points and in those three games he just he barely played i'm sorry his game log is not i remember one of those games all right yeah but i think we knew before one of those games that he wasn't going to play a lot it doesn't matter the other two it's the same it's the trap of those games that he wasn't going to play a lot. It doesn't matter. The other two, it's the trap that we talk about. If you're going to say

that the trap with Higgins is that he leaves games early, maybe. But what I'm saying is you can't look at his points per game that year because in week one

he played 26% of the snaps. In week two, he played, in week five, he played 16% of the snaps, did not get a target. And then in week 14, he played one snap.

One snap. We knew he wasn't right going into that game. We told people to not start him. Either way, it's not about that. It's about you look at his points per game. Those three games count. You have to remove them and remove whatever stats he had, which was a combined two catches for 27 yards in three games.

You take those games away and only count the games he played with Jamar Chase that year and he was at 15.7 points per game. That's my argument for T. Higgins, and that is a top 15 wide receiver. Alright. We good? DJ Moore?

DJ Moore after 10 minutes of T. Higgins. So nobody's taking DJ Moore at at 21 he won't even be on the board here guys so um you know get do you think heath that it's justifiable to take dj more as wide receiver 16 17 18 like i said at the beginning of the show the difference for me between wide receiver 14 and wide receiver 29 is basically a point per game. So yes, I certainly think it's justifiable to like DJ Moore a little bit more than three or four guys that we have ahead of him. I have DJ Moore right now in my projections at wide receiver 21. It's one of the,

like, obviously DJ Moore is a bit of a pain point for me, but he's one of the hardest, he should be a pain point for almost everyone but he's one of the hardest. He should be a pain point for almost everyone. He's one of the most difficult wide receivers to understand. He went four years in the league where he never scored more than four touchdowns. Then he scored seven in the worst season of his career. Thank you, Baker Mayfield. And then he just had an insane season and immediately saw his offensive coordinator replaced, his quarterback replaced, and one of the greatest target earners of the glass decade added to the roster and a rookie wide receiver added as a top 10 pick. piece of cake. Yeah. Dave, how about you? Do you think you could,

you could see, you could see yourself drafting DJ more as a top 18 wide receiver. I do it. So yes. Okay. And it's because I buy into the DJ more that we saw last season. I think I, I worry.

I've talked about this. I worry about the target volume staying where it was. He averaged 8.2 targets per game in 13 games with Justin Fields last year. I think that number can come down, but I don't think it's going to go down that much. I don't think it's going to fall below seven and a half. And I think he's got explosiveness to his game. I think he can make plays after the catch. I think he can continue to be a red zone option for Chicago.

And I think he's got a better quarterback to deal with. So I still view DJ Moore as a, not like what he was last year. I mean, he averaged 19 PPR points per game with fields last year, and he finished with almost 17 over the course of the season. I would drop that down that 17 number of full point. I think he can get you to 16. Does it bother anyone?

Not saying it should. Does it bother anyone that DJ Moore had six games with 22.4 or more points last year? That's awesome. They were against one good defense, Atlanta. The other ones were Detroit twice, Minnesota, Washington, and Denver. At that point in the season, Denver was historically bad. So he just absolutely crushed these cupcakes. Does that bother anyone?

I love those kind of guys. But I think Dave's generally more averse to the boom bust wide receiver. He wasn't. Yeah, I don't want to put boom bust on him because he was just pretty. He was just boom basically with Justin Fields, but, but he had these huge games against these awful teams. Oh,

well, he still plays Detroit twice this year. He still plays Minnesota twice this year and he plays the AFC South this year. I, I don't think the schedule is, is going to be something that really holds DJ Moore back. It's going to be the target volume that would hold him back,

but I don't think it's going to hold him back that much. I don't think Keenan Allen still looks like a good NFL wide receiver. I don't think he gets 10 targets per game just because his name is Keenan Allen and he goes to Chicago. And I don't think O'Doone'say is going to earn huge target volume either. I think Moore leads the team. I'm banking on DJ Moore leading the team in targets. Therefore, he leads the team in catches, yards,

and he'll compete to lead the team in touchdowns. He will be a good number two fantasy wide receiver. Okay. George Piggins is next at 22 in our consensus rankings. Let me just check where he is in adp he's 26 in adp dave uh pros and cons for george pickens we saw what he is capable of doing late last season his final three games this is with the quarterback change mason rudolph went under center there was one game where he had zero fantasy points he still averaged 18.6 PPR points in those final three.

That's with the donut average seven and a half targets per game in week 16 and week 17. Put to bed any questions about just what he's capable of doing as a number one wide receiver. So what's changed this year? Russell Wilson is going to be his quarterback. We can argue that that's an upgrade over Mason Rudolph, certainly over Kenny Pickett. It is, yeah. It's an enormous upgrade over Mason Rudolph. We're not going to argue that.

I don't think we should, but we do need to discuss what the offensive coordinator change means because Arthur Smith is a fantastic run game schemer, and I think Pittsburgh really wants to have a fantastic run game schemer. And I think Pittsburgh really wants to have a fantastic run game. And that could mean that the passing volume for George Pickens might not be as good as it was in those games, week 16 and 17. We just saw Drake London never get to seven targets per game with Arthur Smith as his head coach and his play caller.

And so that makes me a little bit nervous about George Pickens getting crazy volume. That's really where my argument probably ends for Pickens. I view him as a good number two wide receiver as well. I'd rather have DJ Moore. I think I'd rather have DK Metcalf because I'm a little optimistic about what's cooking in Seattle. But Pickens is an easy bet to lead the Steelers and targets for the second year in a row and to put up good numbers, but break out and

be a top 12 type of wide receiver. A little nervous to go that far. I, you know, I hear a lot about the earth, LOL, Arthur Smith. Anytime we get excited about any Steelers, I have no problem saying that Arthur Smith is also a big upgrade over Matt Canada. Like, I think this team threw 506 passes last year. We don't have to worry about them switching to a run-heavy approach. They were already there. Okay, so then the change to Smith should mean that they are aiming to be more effective with their run game. No, right. Yes. I don't know if I necessarily

meant that Arthur Smith arriving means that they're going to run the ball even more than what they did last year. I just think that they want their identity to go back to being excellent at running the football, and Smith can help them get there. Listen, after Matt Canada got fired last year, they had different people with different duties making up the play calling in Pittsburgh. Pickens averaged 13.1 PPR points per game.

That includes the two monster games at the end of the year. It includes the donut at the end of the year. I think that's a good floor for Pickens. And I think you can see more upside with him than you can with somebody like T Higgins. Dave mentioned the way that George Pickens ended the season, but I think like any talk about what his potential is for this year has to talk about how he started the season because he had four games without Deontay Johnson. He had 33 targets in those four games. If George

Pickens comes out and averages eight targets per game, holy cow. He also had huge games against the Browns and the Ravens in that stretch. It was awesome. He was awesome. He's a 23 year old. He's a third year wide receiver who just got a big upgrade at quarterback, a big upgrade at all, in my opinion, a big upgrade at offensive these great improvements for Garrett Wilson and Drake London because of their quarterback upgrades, and rightly so.

I think you can pretty easily make an argument. Don't talk about the way he started the year or the way he ended the year. George Pickens' 2023 was certainly better than anything Drake London's ever done with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph throwing the ball. I, you know, that was a, I don't know, a month and a half ago, I started out a show comparing three receivers blind, you know, just here are some stats. And it was Garrett Wilson, Drake London, George Pickens. And London was the one who stood out as, as not having had done anything compared to the other two guys who have had an 1100 yard season.

And they both, and all three of them have dealt with terrible quarterback play. The Steelers have thrown 25 touchdown passes in the last two seasons combined. Pickens had a 29% target share in those four games without Deontay Johnson, 26.4% target per route run rate. I hope, you know, that would be amazing.

When you compare him to Higgins, I think, Dave, you were saying he has a lot more upside than Higgins right definitely does he have more downside than higgins i'm gonna say no nope i'm gonna say yes i don't think there's quite enough yet from well i think it's like you can take a little bit of a leap with withens. I love Pickens. I really want to get him because of the Deontay Johnson stuff that we just said. But at the same time, he just hasn't – he's had so many bad games in his career, so many games where he's done almost nothing. And it reminds me a little bit of Chase Claypool, except Pickens at least has had two years where he's been relevant.

Claypool had a good rookie year, but it was very concentrated in a few games. Pickens has a little bit of that for me that scares me, guys. Just too many terrible games for him. Doesn't seem to bother you, Heath? No. I'm sitting here talking about me, and maybe I should have George Pickens ranked ahead of T. Higgins, and I'm not thinking about moving Tee Higgins down. I'm thinking about moving George Pickens up. So who would you be moving him over? Because I just moved Pickens over Higgins myself. Yeah.

Right now, I've got him behind Tank, behind Kirk, behind DJ Moore, behind IU, Cooper, Debo. Like, those are the guys. I'll behind DJ Moore, behind IU, Cooper, Debo. Those are the guys. I'll take DJ Moore. I'll take Debo. I think I'll take Amari Cooper. Let's see if a holdout changes that. But I think he's in that range of solid floor, 13 PPR points, and yes, he can finish much better than that.

But I do already have George Pickens ahead of Drake London so I don't have to move him at him that is yeah you don't have to do that alright listen let's our last two shows are making me question everything I know about Drake London I don't mean for it to be like that

when I compared them I was really making it more about George Pickens and like I don't really know why Pickens wasn't getting the same type of treatment as London and Wilson were. He wasn't a first round pick. Yep. That's absolutely. He wasn't a first round pick. He's a little bit of a boomer bus guy. His ADOT has been pretty damn high. I'd like to see it come down a little bit. I think it would help him be more consistent. That's what I worry about with Pickens. I worry about he's going to be like the new Tyler Lockett, which would be great over a full season,

but could make you pull your hair out, you know, several times throughout the year. The other reason why is, and I'll own this, most people think that Russell Wilson's positive stats last year were fraudulent, and he's absolutely terrible. And that Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins coming off of Achilles injuries are much safer bets as quarterbacks than Wilson is. Yeah, you're right.

All right. So I would say there's definitely that opinion out there. We're going to change the show a little bit today, guys. We're going to do we're going to make this a two parter. So we'll do the first five today and the next five on Monday. So that leaves us with DK Metcalf and Devante Smith to talk about after this commercial break. We'll be right back. Miller light,

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How do you rank just those three, Dave? Moore, Pickens, Higgins, and I just want to add this little nugget if I can. Pickens, two best games from last year, you know when they were, it was late in the season, were two of his three best ADOT games of the year, or highest ADOT games.

I don't know if higher means better. 17.8 or more yards of an a dot for pickings in those games. Yeah, that's cool. I just think that's, if he has that kind of a dot, which is B anything,

anything over 14, you're probably talking about an inconsistent player. My guess. He also, he averaged 28 yards after catch per reception against Cincinnati in his breakout game. Those games typically don't exist. But he's capable of it.

That's the difference between, not to belabor the point, the difference between him and London is Pickens has showed that ability to make those plays every now and then. All right, sorry. What do you think Drake London's career-high single-game yak per reception average is? I'm going to look it up.

I thought it was going to be total yak, and I thought it was going to be below 28. It might be. I'll guess in the 18 range, but who knows? It only takes one play, you know? We're the only nerds that care about this, so let's just move on. DK Metcalf checks in at number 23

in our consensus rankings and 19th in ADP on CBS. So the people like Metcalf a little bit more than we do. And I think, Heath, when you look at Metcalf, you have to ask yourself the question. In 2020, he was the number six

wide receiver overall, number nine per game, seventh in non-PPR per game, eighth in half PPR, ninth in full PPR per game, 83 catches, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns. In the last three years, that was 2020, the last three years, DK Metcalf has been 22nd to 23rd per game every single year in PPR.

So is that just who he is, or is there more there for DK Metcalf? Give me your thoughts on him. I'm there more there for DK Metcalf? Give me your thoughts on him. I I'm the low guy on DK Metcalf, but I've always been the biggest believer in Tyler Lockett and I don't think he's going away. Um, I do think there's a threat that JS, JSN and the new offense sees a larger role and I'm not sure he only hurts Lockett in that situation. Also, I'm not optimistic really about Geno Smith or the Seahawks passing game. So I think if you draft DK Metcalf as a number three wide receiver, you've really left yourself some room for him to make you happy.

I think if you draft DK Metcalf as a top 20 wide receiver, as Dave talks about so often, we don't want to draft these guys at their upside. And I don't necessarily mean that I think that's DK Metcalf's upside as a player, but on a roster with Gino Smith, Tyler Lockett, and JSN, I think wide receiver 19 is pretty close to his upside. I tend to agree. And I am excited about this Seattle offense because of what it means to the wide receivers. And first start with just the talk that the wide receivers are going to get a lot of targets. That's been the track record for Ryan Grubb. It seems like the obvious thing for Seattle to do.

Yes. Even with Gino Smith or Sam Howland or center, I just think that that's where they're going to go. The strength of that offense is in the receiving core. It's deep. It's good. It's strong. DK Metcalf has been a monster end zone target earner every year of his career. I don't think that that's going to change. What I do think will change is where DK Metcalf lines up. And we've heard this out of Seattle that they want to use their wide receivers. They want to mix and match it a little bit more. I still think JSN is going to lead the way in terms of lining up in the slot. He's going to do that the most, but DK will get down there too. And if they can create a matchup and manipulate it with DK Metcalf against a smaller slot corner, I would imagine that Seattle will ride that as long as a defense lets them. And I think that

DK Metcalf has a chance to have a floor of 14 PPR points per game. And that's not crazy. That's where he's been before. And so his ceiling, it can be high. We know he can score a lot of touchdowns. Hopefully the target volume goes up to the point where he leads the team there. He was close last year. This year, maybe he takes over because Tyler Lockett takes a step back. I'm excited about DK Metcalf, relatively speaking. I've got him ranked 21st among wide receivers. And I think if you draft him, we're talking mid-round four.

I don't think that's too close to a ceiling. I think that's all right. I was really surprised when I just saw this, and so I'm going to say it. George Pickens had 1,140 receiving yards last year. That would be the second best total of DK Metcalf's career and better than any of his last three seasons. How do you touch that? Dave, do you think that, you mentioned the targets. Do you think that Lockett's targets go down by more than JSN's go up?

Give me the numbers for them last year. Lockett had 122 and JSN had 93. And Metcalf had 119 and one fewer game than Lockett. I'm going to say that Lockett finishes third in targets in Seattle this year. JSN will be second. DK will be first. I think the gap will be wider between JSN and Lockett than it will be between Metcalf and JSN. I think they really like JSN and expect him to be a much bigger contributor this year.

So Lockett had 122 last year. Does he have 100 this year? No. Less than 100? Yep. Okay. Can I just bring up one other thing here? They were last in plays last year.

We talked about this on our previous show an hour and a half ago. This could help. If you compare 2020 when Metcalf was a stud to 2023, he ran 86 fewer routes. So, you know, I can't figure out why they've been a fast paced offense that has been last in plays in two of the last three seasons,

but I'm hoping that they just run more plays and that there are just more pass attempts or something like that. I definitely have them projected to run more plays. that there are just more pass attempts or something like that. I definitely have them projected to run more plays. I think like what you need to do to be a believer in DK Metcalf is to agree with Dave that Tyler Lockett, like this is the year that he just goes from target leader to five targets per game yeah 32 years old in september tyler lockett and coming off by his standards a pretty bad season because i have him I have Metcalf at 125. That's higher than I thought you'd have him. That's pretty much what he did last year, 119 in 16 games.

He was on pace for 126 targets last year. So I basically have the JSN bump. That was the reason I asked the question is I basically have the JSN bump in targets replacing the locket loss and targets, right? I don't have any of those locket targets that are going away, going to DK. I have them going to,

to, to the JSN. All right, let's talk about, so, okay. So then if to sum up DK Metcalf, it doesn't sound like you guys think there's a ton of upside there,

but the fact that he has finished 23rd or 22nd per game, three straight years, you'd have to say he's got a pretty decent floor. Yep. I think that's right. And there's, there's upside that I'm not like, if the new offense in Seattle just takes off and is super fast paced, then that's where the upside would come from Metcalf.

Like if they go run 1100 plays this year, they ran 995 last year. Right. Then there is certainly more upside for DK. And there's more room for all the receivers to have good target volume from game to game. All right. Last guy we'll talk about today. That might be, that actually might be the very best point of all Heath coming through at the

buzzer. I, if, if Seattle just runs more plays, which I think they're going to do, it's going to lift, it's going to lift the target numbers for all three of the receivers. Yeah.

I mean, you could give Heath credit for that. Sure. I also said it at the two minute warning, you know, but that's okay. That's Devante Smith. Keith.

That was a really good point. Just one more time. I mean, I didn't give the, I didn't give the, like the 1100 versus nine 90, whatever you said, that was interesting.

Once again, he proves that he's the genius behind this program. That's Jacob. Greater late. All right. Dev's Jacob. Great or late. All right, Devontae Smith, if you missed the Wednesday show, I said that over the last two seasons, when Dallas Goddard, Devontae Smith, and A.J. Brown have been on the field, Devontae Smith, the points per game he's averaged

would have made him wide receiver 24 last year. If you take away two Minshew games in there and make it Hurts, Goddard, Brown, Devontae Smith, now we're talking about wide receiver 36 per game. Overall, because Dallas Goddard has missed time each of the last two years, Devontae Smith has been, I think, 16th per game in 2022 and 20th per game in 2023.

What you love about him is that when one of the guys is out and A.J. Brown missed the playoff game and Devontae Smith had a huge game, 110 yards or something, he's fantastic. So at least you see that when he gets targeted, he does a lot with it. But at the end of the day, are we only hoping for an injury here to make him?

No. The other thing, and I don't know how likely this is because Jalen Hurts is a very unique quarterback amongst franchise quarterbacks. But Kellen Moore has been an extremely pass-heavy coordinator. The Eagles have not been a very pass-heavy offense, and that is an understatement. And so I don't think we should expect Moore to all of a sudden have Jalen Hurts throwing 650 passes like he did with Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott.

But I don't think it would be that surprising if they throw 50 more passes than they have in the past. And then that would open up more room for Smith to be good with Brown and Goddard. For the second year in a row, I've got Smith and Higgins kind of tied together where I think they, they, they, they're basically the same type of receiver as far as fantasy profile goes, where they, they've got some good safety from week to week, and you know where the upside is. But I think Devontae Smith is just more explosive of a receiver where he can have a game where Dallas Gowder plays

and still put up some good numbers on occasion. So I like Smith better than Higgins in that regard, but I think he's another one of these guys that you look at and say, all right, 13 PPR points per game with Gus up to 16, 17, and I'll have some duds mixed in as well. If I was going to make the case for Higgins over Smith, you know, I would say that I see the comparisons and Smith is probably a more explosive player. But Joe Burrow in 2022 was on pace for 4,755 yards and 37 touchdowns. In 2021, he also played 16 games that year. He was on pace for 4,899 yards and 36 touchdowns.

Those are numbers that... Yeah, Hurts can't touch those. Yeah, he can't touch those. And you've got the Goddard factor. And with the weird thing, it's like I keep saying it, and I don't even really necessarily – I mean, I do believe it, but it doesn't make sense to me. Dallas Goddard really shouldn't be, in my opinion,

affecting Devontae Smith that much, but it is happening. I mean, it does happen. Is Goddard at the locket stage of his career where we could see him get phased out but the difference would be js there's no jsn to replace it i don't think it has anything to do with that i think it has to do with offensive philosophies change but when he goes out they don't throw to the tight end you know like like it's okay sorry i think they may not throw to the tight end as much when he's in now is what i'm saying because i think kaelin moore just may have more targets going to wide receivers.

That helps Devontae Smith. What would hurt Devontae Smith and Heath, you talked about how Kellen Moore has this great track record with wide receivers and leaning on them. Philadelphia upgraded to Saquon Barkley. I can't imagine they're going to just be the same with their running back usage as what the Chargers were last year is a very bad example. Like, Kellen Moore is going to take advantage of having Saquon Barkley.

I don't get excited to draft Devontae Smith. Do you guys get excited to draft him? No. I'm more excited to draft him than T. Higgins, but I'd rather have Pickens. I'd rather have Metcalf. But it's kind of close between those three. This is probably a giant step and not a Saquon Barkley stat,

but I need to at least say it because if you'll remember, I kind of hammered Ramondre Stevenson going into last year about how no running back has seen as many targets as him and been below five yards per target and continued to receive that many targets. Saquon Barkley, the last three seasons, been 4.6, 4.4, 4.7 yards per target. continued to receive that many targets. Saquon Barkley, the last three seasons been 4.6, 4.4, 4.7 yards per target.

Six is about average. It's probably just because the giants, but Jalen hurts has never had success really throwing to his running backs in terms of efficiency. That's not been like Jalen hurts. Dumping off passes has not been, I'm not sure. I'm not sure that throwing the ball to Saquon Barkley is going to be a good

thing for the Eagles offense or something. They do a lot. No, but handing off to him might be something they do more than they have done with their running backs in the past. It might be. Would you take Devante Smith or DK Metcalf? Here's, here's how I have in my rankings starting or DK Metcalf? Here's how I have it in my rankings, starting at 21.

Metcalf, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Devante Smith. I am taking Smith over Metcalf, but I'm the low guy on Metcalf. Okay. It's interesting. It's like if you buy into, i said dk metcalf wide receiver 22 or 23 per game two straight three straight seasons and smith being basically wide receiver 24 per game when he's been with goddard but worse than that when it's been hurts you know not he had two huge games with minchu um and i kind of feel like it's an easier path to upside for Smith.

He only needs one guy to get hurt. Whereas like JSI. Okay. Yeah, I don't know. Maybe DK only needs one to get hurt. Maybe, but I could also see Smith eating into A.J. Brown's ridiculous target share from last year. Because in the second half of 2022,

he had more targets than A.J. Brown. And in the postseason run, the Super Bowl run, they had the same amount of targets. That's why people were so excited about Devontae Smith going into last year. And then when the game started being played, A.J. Brown had a ridiculous target share. Devontae Smith really suffered.

There's no reason why that can't be a little bit more even. You know? Yeah. Moore could be construed as a play caller who can make that happen. I think I'm on Devontae Smith over Metcalf. When did C.D. Lamb's target explosion happen? That's when Kellen Moore left.

After the bye, yeah. Yeah. So who would that be? Keenan Allen did have a target explosion, even for him last season with Kellen Moore. Without Kellen Moore? Or with? Keenan Allen did?

Keenan Allen did. Keenan Allen had it the year before to 13 targets per game. I don't know about that, but like crazy numbers, two years in a row. When Mike Williams went down, the Chargers offense became throw it to Keenan Allen and then throw it to Keenan Allen. Oh yeah. We, we have Eckler when he's healthy. Oh look, there's Keenan Allen. He's open again. Throw it to him.

That's by necessity, though, right? That's true. He averaged... A play caller who knows to lean on his playmakers, and you'd be hard-pressed to not call Devontae Smith a playmaker. Philosophically, I'm not so... I don't really say the play caller leans on his playmakers. I think it's really the quarterback making these decisions.

Who do you think the plays are designed for? Plays are designed for the quarterback to throw to. Well, I get that, but it's the quarterback who's ultimately deciding who he's throwing to. It is certainly a combination. Yeah, right. I mean, yeah. Like some quarterbacks go to their first read more often than others. Yeah. Right. I mean, yeah. Like some quarterbacks go to their first read more often than others.

That's true. That's true. That first read is usually the player that the coach wants it to be. Yeah. But we'll see. I mean, when has Kellen Moore had? I guess he did with Cooper. This is the best wide receiver duo that he has had.

Because when he had Cooper and Lamb, I would say it would be early in Lamb's career. There was a year that Prescott got hurt. Right. Would you, would you agree with that? I think so. I think AJ and Devante versus Lamb and Cooper is a, like, it's really, I wouldn't make a strong argument for either one. The Eagles receivers now

are better than the Cowboys receivers then. When will then be now? Soon. All right, that's it. By the way, another show that I didn't watch so I could watch that super boring episode of The Bear was Giants Hard Knocks, which debuted on Tuesday night, I believe.

I didn't see it. Yeah? Oh, you haven't seen it? No, I haven't. Have you? No. I saw the clip of the seed being planted on the Brian Burns trade. Yeah.

Dan Morgan wanted two firsts. I saw the clip of them trying to get out of the seed being planted on the Brian Burns trade. Yeah. Dan Morgan wanted two firsts. I saw the clip of them trying to get out of the six pick before they settled from Elite Neighbors. Trying to get out of the six pick? Yes. Yes.

That happened too. In that same clip with Dan Morgan, you're saying? I believe so. It was on the sideline with what's his name? With Brandon Bean and Dan Morgan asking if they want to move up to six, and both of them were like,

it was like, let's just see where this goes. We don't have the draft capital to do that. It's the same thing with Dan Morgan trying to get two first round. He never thought he was going to get two first round picks for Brian Burns at that point. No, but planting the seed nonetheless. Oh, is today Tom Cruise's birthday?

Someone asked me if I wished Tom Cruise a happy birthday. Oh, yeah. Happy birthday, Tom Cruise. The star of stars. All right, we're out of here. Have a... Oh, sorry. This is airing on July 5th.

I hope you had a great July 4th, everybody. Mine was acceptable. We'll talk to you on Monday with the rest of this mid-round wide receiver discussion. See you later. Are you a professional pillow fighter or a 9-to-5 low-cost time travel agent? Or maybe real estate sales on Mars is your profession. It doesn't matter. Whatever it is you do, however complex or intricate,

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