Fantasy Football Today - Most Interesting AFC Projections! Is Myles Gaskin Good? (07/07 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 7, 2021

Nominate us on PodcastAwards.com! https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup Obviously we have to start with this question: Is it acceptable to wear a band's t-shirt to their concert? Then we'll get into the AFC projections beginning with the Dolphins WRs (5:00). Heath and Chris have very different opinions on what Jaylen Waddle's rookie season will look like. And we talk about Javonte Williams potentially getting more carries than Melvin Gordon (13:40) ... It's not easy to project the Titans offense. How much will Ryan Tannehill throw (17:15)? What do the WR targets look like and what kind of yards per carry do we expect from Derrick Henry? And moving on to the Steelers, how many plays will they run and will it be enough to sustain three Fantasy-relevant WRs (24:00)? ... Heath and Chris tackle the Dolphins backfield (30:50). Myles Gaskin will lead the way, but how much of a role will Malcolm Brown play? And then we get into Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake (42:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Today on the AFC Projections Spectacular, we will find out is, well actually we'll guess, is Myles Gaskin good? Will Pittsburgh run enough plays to give us three good wide receivers for fantasy? What kind of role will Kenyon Drake have? We also have an emailer who thinks that Austin Eckler is being overdrafted. We'll see if we agree with that. Your email is at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is Fantasy Football Today. We're looking at some

of the most interesting AFC projections from Heath and Chris. First question for you guys. We just got some speculation out of the Denver Post's Ryan O'Halloran. He thinks that Javante Williams will lead the Broncos in carries this year. Neither of you have that projected. You have Gordon with more carries. What will it take for you to make that switch to project Javante Williams for more carries than Melvin Gordon? I guess positive reports out of training camp saying that Javante Williams is looking like the lead back

for the Denver Broncos. I don't have them very far apart, so it wouldn't take very much at all. I think I have Gordon at like one and a half or two more carries per game, like a 30-carry difference. So it wouldn't take very much. I'm pretty agnostic on the whole situation. I still think Melvin Gordon was really good last year, so it wouldn't take very much. I'm pretty agnostic on the whole situation.

I still think Melvin Gordon was really good last year, and Javante Williams is a rookie, so I still expect Gordon to lead the team early in the year, but this is a little bit noteworthy. Yeah, it was. It was probably one noteworthy news item that we will talk about. We'll get to that a little bit later in the show. We have a big conrum here chris you want to talk about your tattoo conundrum i think it's pretty interesting talking point it's a good question yeah so you know how like you're not

supposed to wear like a band's shirt to a band's concert yeah or like no i went to the georgia aquarium on vacation and i wore a shirt with a whale on it i wasn't sure if like that was cool i'm into that. Why aren't you supposed to wear the band shirt to the band concert? Because you wear the team shirt to the team's games. It's assumed that you like that band. Yeah, but it's assumed

that you like that team. When you go to a game, isn't it assumed that you like the team? Right, but your support of the team is meant to increase their odds of victory. I'm trying to make the band play a little better. Let's go, Pearl Jam. Right?

I'm with you. I'm wearing a Wilco shirt. It's a reference to one of their songs, Theologians. And it's got a little Pac-Man ghost and a little Pac-Man cherry. I've had this shirt for like 12 years i think my wife got it for me for my 21st birthday so it means a lot to me and i got a tattoo with the same uh logo here i i don't know how to show it because there it kind of is there it is straighten your arm you can see it hold on there there it is yeah right and my wife believes that i can no longer wear this shirt because I have this tattoo and that I have to give her this shirt, which is an obvious ploy for her to get like a nice worn in cotton T-shirt.

Yeah, I disagree. But what do you guys think? I don't think you can no longer wear the shirt because you have the tattoo I think you can no longer wear the shirt because your wife wants it now no that's not how it works though I think that she's right about the tattoo she's wrong about having to give it to her

and I would just throw it away just put it away in a drawer it's weird first of all it looks like a Pac-Man shirt so I would never have known it was Wilco that's for the Wilco fans it says Wilco under Yeah, it's weird. First of all, it looks like a Pac-Man shirt. You know, I didn't... Yeah. Right. So I would never have known it was Wilco. Well, it says it's still Wilco. That's for the Wilco fans.

It says Wilco under. What about your tattoo? Does it say Wilco? No, no, that's just... Well, I like the, you know, nobody can tell. Am I a really big Wilco fan or just a Pac-Man enthusiast? I think that's good. This reminds me when I was in college,

I had a ringtone of a band I was really into and I was wearing their t-shirt that day and my phone rang and i was like this is embarrassing i'm way too into this band so i changed my cell phone ring um so i don't tell us don't answer but can people please guess what band this was because i'm assuming that band is terrible they I'm going to say Lit. No. I'm going to go with Sugar Ray. Oh, God. You know nothing about me. It would never be Sugar Ray.

Sugar Ray's got like two good songs. Yeah, this is a fun contest. Guess which band I was super into. It started in high school. I graduated high school in 2002, so probably 2001 or 2002. I got so into this band. I can give a hint later in the show if you want.

Let's go to the projections. Which projections are you farthest apart on? I asked you guys. You gave me some answers. Heath, you had mentioned Will Fuller. I think actually the answer is probably Jalen Waddell when I look at the Dolphins wide receivers. Looking at the Will Fuller projections,

it turns out Chris has like don't draft Jaylen waddle if you go by chris's projections 42 catches 623 yards five touchdowns on 81 targets draft jaylen waddle based on heath's projections 77 catches 966 yards four and a half touchdowns on 114 targets big difference there he Heath. Big confidence gap between you and Chris in the Jalen Waddell projection. Yeah, and I don't... I think this Dolphins receiving core

is a bit of a mystery. I don't express any certainty about this, but Will Fuller is one of those players where I just... Almost everybody else, I'm like, we're just going to ignore injuries. We'll factor that into rankings, but we're not going to factor it into projections.

You absolutely cannot project Will Fuller for 17 games because we already know he's going to miss one. And the likelihood, based on his career, is he's going to miss about seven. Did you project him for 16 games? I just tried to cut back on what a 16-game projection would be. Oh, okay. I think if you told me he was playing every game,

I would expect him to be the best Dolphins wide receiver. I don't know any reason anyone would expect him to play every game. Well, he did it last season. Well, but he's not allowed to do that anymore. Right, right. No, but you said after we got. No, I'm saying he's not allowed to do the thing that allowed him to play all of his games last year.

Okay. We don't know for a fact. We don't know if correlation equals causation in this case. I think historically speaking, this is anecdotal, but also I've read some good evidence to suggest that this is also the case, is that when you take performance enhancing drugs,

you generally keep the gains that you make. Now that doesn't necessarily mean not all performance enhancing drugs are designed to improve your performance or enhance your performance, as it were. Some of them are just to help keep you healthy. Performance improving drugs. We don't...

I don't know if we can draw a correlation there or a causation. Yeah, a lot of people have, Chris. I agree with you. Maybe he just stayed healthy. It's not necessarily the the peds that kept him healthy and like his injuries there have been a lot of injuries but like it was a broken collarbone one year it was a torn acl one year it's been hamstrings and like it's not necessarily like it's been one recurring injury over and over and over again and if you listen

to fantasy baseball podcasts you know that i made this argument for byron buxton who has been on the injured list twice so far this season with random injuries um that were not related to any injuries that he's ever had in his career so clearly but he's been awesome but he's been healthy byron buxton of football but well no we's played a lot more than Byron Buxton. But what's so different about your... Because your Fuller projections look pretty similar. You know, somewhere around 950 yards, six or seven touchdowns,

within five targets of each other, within six catches of each other. I do think it's the hierarchy in the Dolphins passing game where we're really different. I do think Fuller is significantly higher than anyone else. And obviously the fact that he's only projected for 16 games makes a difference there. But I do have Waddle a decent amount behind Devante Parker.

Well, Fuller have him for a 15% target share versus 20% for Parker and 21% for Fuller. And it would be higher for Fuller and sit in, you know, per game. I have Waddle getting the same amount of targets as Mike Kosicki I could just be an idiot I fully admit that Jalen Waddle is a very very good player he's an incredibly talented player but you know the the thing about

this offense is this is a lot of guys who make plays down the field. You know, there's a lot of... Gasicki for a tight end is a downfield player. Devontae Parker usually has an ADOT over 10 yards. Will Fuller, obviously a very good downfield player. So you can make the argument that Waddle will kind of fill in the gaps and see more screens, see more intermediate stuff, get the ball in his hands in space and give him an opportunity to make plays. And in which case,

he could have a higher target share than this. But I also just, I could see it being the case that a rookie is not worked in slower, but just doesn't have quite as big of a role from day one than the veterans. It's an assumption. Yeah.

We're all making assumptions with this. The things that I kind of lean on in in projecting waddle a little higher i think as far as pedigree goes he clearly has the best pedigree of any of the past catchers in miami and like a lot of times you discount the rookies because he has to earn that quarterback's trust he's played more games with tuaua than anybody else on the roster. That's a funny way to put it. Well, but I think, so I don't know how much that matters. I think we can overemphasize the familiarity, but I don't think it's nothing either.

So I don't know that there's a real good chance of anyone being a number one wide receiver on this team and earning 125 130 targets i think they'll spread the ball around quite a bit but i'm just leaning on the guy who has the most familiarity with the quarterback and i think has the most talent getting the most targets yeah the the problem the thing that i'm struggling with with waddle and this could just be a mental block on my own is that for a player drafted as early as he was, one, his college production profile is pretty lacking.

14.5% college target share, really high yards per target, but relatively speaking, low catch totals, low touchdown totals. Even last season, which was his best, we're talking about a six-game sample size where he caught 28 passes um but i did a lot with him oh yeah he averaged 21 yards per catch he's an incredible playmaker um but this is an open question with all of these alabama guys is how what do we the things that we typically look for with college wide receiver prospects, target share, dominant score, all this stuff, dominant rating. How much can you apply that when you're talking about guys you played on a team with? Did it end up being four first round wide receivers on that 2019 team?

Three, for sure. Judy, yeah. Three, four, yeah. Ruggs. Smith, Ruggs, Judy. for sure judy uh yeah three four yeah rugs rugs smith rugs judy and so like how much can you hold it against these guys that they didn't break out until those guys were out of the picture um well the nfl certainly didn't but also jalen wattle's really small for a for an elite wide receiver prospect he's five foot nine 180 pounds yes he's very very fast but um it's just it's kind of a prospect profile that doesn't have a lot of uh there's not a lot of history of this type of prospect profile turning into an elite number one nfl wide receiver and so i'm working under the assumption that he'll be more like a complementary

piece this season with fuller on a one-year deal parker i believe they can get out of that deal after this season um you know i think it's kind of a let's see what this offense can look like well you know reevaluate afterwards um i do think this offense is going to take a step forward. I think there's a lot of talent here. I just think there's a lot of uncertainty as well. I think Jalen Waddell is the only Dolphin that I have projected for more fantasy points than Chris. Okay.

That makes sense. All right. Well, there you go. That's some Dolphins talk and more coming later. We'll take a look at Myles Gaskin and his projection, which is pretty interesting. We, by the way, are finalists for the sports category

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The only news item was about Javante Williams and this was the quote from the Denver Post from Ryan O'Halloran. He did a Q&A with some viewers, readers. They read the paper. The Broncos traded up in the second round for Williams and they weren't high-fiving and fist-pumping in the draft room because he will watch

this year. If Gordon has a productive training camp, I see a situation where he takes the first snap slash series of the game and the Broncos ease Williams into a bigger role each week. Prediction, Williams leads the team in rushing attempts and yards this year. There you go. There you have it.

That is a prediction. It is. A lot of momentum for Javante Williams and this is why drafting early is good. If you like Javante Williams, then you probably can get him earlier now if you're the Scott Fishbowl or something. Then maybe you already missed your chance with this report.

But I just feel like it's going to keep rising, that ADP. Yeah, I mean, he's already a fifth-round pick. He's already about a round ahead of Melvin Gordon in NFC ADP. And I get it. I would rather have Gordon if the prices are going to continue to move in opposite directions, too. And that was not the only news item. What else?

A former first-round pick requested a trade, demanded a trade, quite frankly. I don't know who. Nikhil Harry. By the way, I forgot to mention, the Dolphins' top three receivers are all first-round picks.

How about that? Is that neat? That sounds right. I thought Will Fuller was a second-round pick. No, 21st overall, first-round pick. You hate Will Fuller. Here second round pick. No, 21st overall, first round pick. You hate Will Fuller. Here's something that I was looking up about Javante Williams.

There have been 31 running backs drafted in the second round over the last decade. How many of them do you think have topped 200 carries as a rookie? Out of 31. 13. I was going gonna say 14 14 5 whoa wow mckell the shore and jeremy hill jonathan taylor levy on bell and eddie lacy are the only ones to have done it

that doesn't necessarily mean giovante williams won't it. I'm as shocked as you guys are that the number is that low, but this is the kind of thing anytime you look up rookie running backs outside of the first round, really, and the chances of them actually playing a big role based on historical precedent is way lower than I think we tend to assume. Yeah, but if you can get... If he gets 100 carries in his first 11 games or 12 games... No, no, 10 games, sorry.

And then 100 carries in his last seven games, then it's different, right? You know, if you just said, all right, he's going to be a bench piece for me. I'm just going to sit on Javante Williams. And then hopefully he pays off for the last half of the season or something close to that.

Then, you know, then it would pay off. Right. But that's... If it's a fifth round pick, that's a pretty iffy proposition. It's probably going to be a fourth round pick. Yeah, I'm not doing that. That's where it gets iffy for me. So, I don't know.

It's hard to say because, like, it worked out with Jonathan Taylor, even though it was frustrating. Right. All right I don't know. It's hard to say because it worked out with Jonathan Taylor, even though it was frustrating. Right. Alright, AFC projections. Let's start with the Tennessee offense. You have to start with this one. This one is so interesting. Heath has Ryan Tannehill projected for 69 more pass attempts. Nice.

Yeah. Based on his fantasy points per pass, this is stupid, you know, just for fun stat. Based on his fantasy points per pass attempt in 2020, that would be an extra 58 fantasy points per pass, this is stupid, you know, just for fun stat. Based on his fantasy points per pass attempt in 2020, that would be an extra 58 fantasy points. It basically would have made him the second, the number two quarterback, tied him with Josh Allen. He would be like

half a point behind Josh Allen in six point per pass and touchdown league. So that's how good an extra 69 pass attempts would be for Ryan Tannehill. And you guys are very similar on your targets for brown and jones heath has them tied in targets chris has five more for brown but heath uh 4 700 passing yards for tannahill chris 4 000 passing yards for tannahill heath you get the

first word yeah i and there's a little bit of an assumption here but you know with arthur smith leaving you assume there's a little bit of a change in the offense, and the fact that you go trade for Julio Jones signifies to me that you might want to throw a little bit more than you have in the past. So that's mostly where that comes from. I mean, obviously, if you were talking about just what he did last year,

you'd expect probably 30 more pass attempts just from a 17th game. And so we're talking about a difference of probably two per game that i've added and that's that's a considerable difference but also the titans and they might just continue to do it have been so so run heavy over the last couple years i'm really just regressing them a little bit more towards normal yeah and oh good generally speaking more pass attempts should mean more plays overall because they're more efficient but some of those past attempts will be in completions

which stop the clock so generally speaking you know a team that passes more should run more plays than that same team running fewer pass attempts um there is a gap between how many plays we have them running i have them basically right in the middle of where they've been the last couple of years heath you have them higher than they have been um you would and you adjusted that for like per game for 17 games right oh i guess yeah we're pretty close on per game you're right you're right okay oh is that is so wait is that the difference in your projections that you your plays are based on 16 games chris or they're based on 17 depends where you're looking in your projections that your plays are based on 16 games?

Chris, are they based on 17? It depends where you're looking in the projections. All right. Well, we'll get to that in a minute when we talk about Pittsburgh, but go ahead. But I agree that the Titans are going to likely run more or pass more than they have based on the addition of Julio Jones. Actually, I moved A. moved aj brown up a little bit

in my projections after they acquired it julio julio jones which i think is you know maybe a a little bit counterintuitive but i think one it you know i i baked in less regression for him with julio jones playing next to him and you know a higher team-wide passing rate. So, yeah, I think, like, I still have Tannehill as QB9, which is pretty good. Where is he for you, Heath? Not bad. Seven.

Yeah. And, like, I have Aaron Rodgers ahead of him. I have Jalen Hurts ahead of him. Both of those, you know, if we're doing rankings versus projections, I think maybe Tannehill might be ahead of those two guys. So I don't think we're that far off. I am just lower.

I think we talked about this on the NFC podcast. I'm a little lower on passing numbers across the board than you are. And I think that's just regressing a little bit more for 2021 when there were, you know, kind of some outlier passing performances across the league. But I certainly liked this Tennessee offense and, you know,

what do you have? Do you have Derek Henry seeing more targets than normal? Yeah. I just, I think I have the Titans offense being better than yours. I have Derek Henry with more rush attempts than you as well. I've got him at 326. And you have Derek Henry averaging 5.4 yards per carry, Heath.

Chris, you have him at 4.8. Yes, which I understand is outside of where Derek Henry has been the last couple of seasons, and maybe he will continue to be that much better than everyone else, although we're not that far removed from him being a 4.9 yards per carry guy. So I still think there's value in regressing towards a league average

even while he's been much, much better than that. And this is why I've been consistently low on Derrick Henry two years in a row now. Well, and I had regressed Henry a little bit more before they brought in Julio Jones. But now I don't know how anybody could stack the box against them. Yeah, actually, let me give you some stats

on that if I can find them. It might take me a minute. Well, I guess it depends what personnel they run. Stacking the box usually is related as much to personnel as anything else, and so if you run 11 personnel, you're less likely to have the box stacked against you. I would imagine the Titans will still run

quite a few two tight end sets, which is something they did a lot last season and mostly 12 personnel. But I'm not sure who that second tight end would be. Here we go. Ready? This is from Dave. Derek Henry versus a stacked box. He averaged six yards per carry with six in the box,

6.1 with seven in the box, five yards per carry with eight in the box, and just under five yards per carry with nine in the box. That was on 56 attempts. Only 29 carries with six men in the box. So usually it was seven or eight. He was a lot better when they were seven in the box. He was 6.1 yards per attempt compared to eight,

which was five yards per carry, and nine, which was five yards per carry. So that was interesting. But yeah, I don't know. Anything to make of that? Still really good. Five yards per carry with a stacked box. But if he sees fewer men in the box,

it could be even better for him. Like I said, Five yards per carry with a stacked box. But if he sees fewer men in the box, it could be even better for him. Like I said, six yards per carry when they were six or seven in the box. Yeah. Part of the problem is anyone who averages 5.4 yards per carry historically almost always goes down from there and usually by quite a bit.

But for most of them, they're going from like 4.6 yards per carry the previous and, you know, N minus one season to 5.5 in N minus N season, which is a lot different than Derrick Henry being 4.9, 5.1, 5.4. So I don't know it. I could definitely like there's no question I could be low on Derek Henry, like a hundred percent. I have him leading the NFL in touchdowns.

I haven't leaned the NFL in rushing yards, but I think I'm still 200 yards short of you. Okay. Let's go to our next one. So yeah, help me out here, Chris, that I miss.

Was it a 16 versus 17 game thing here? Cause I have Heath has Pittsburgh projected for 1073 plays. And Chris has them projected for 1,073 plays, and Chris has them projected for 995 plays. And that's a huge difference, obviously. And really, I just looked at the receiving targets, the breakdown here, and it was like, oh, wow, Heath just has a lot more targets for these guys. And I said, okay, well, what about the plays?

So Heath has Pittsburgh projected for 1,073 plays, which last year would have ranked sixth. I mean, I don't know that there's much... This is 17 versus last year's 16 games. But Chris has Pittsburgh projected for 995 plays, which might be the lowest in the NFL if that's a 17-game pace. The team pages are 16 games.

The rankings pages are 17. I'm sorry, I didn't communicate that. All right, that's no problem. But even still, 995 would have been 25th last year in between Jacksonville and Baltimore. And Pittsburgh was 11th in plays last year with 1,043. So that's a big decrease there, Chris. 995 plays for Pittsburgh.

Yeah. What I was going to say that might offer a, and maybe I won't, but if you're looking at a three year average of what's Pittsburgh's done, that's not far off from where, where they've averaged. The reason for that is they had a season where they were at 930 the year that's fair um i think with a passing game that they can rely on more or a rushing game that they can rely on more this season and um you know i would expect that they're not going to be quite as extremely pass heavy as they were last season they'll run the clock more there will be fewer plays run um so that plays into it but i could be talked into being too low on that as well um well you do you think you're too low on the Steelers wide receivers? That I really struggle with because I can absolutely see it, but it doesn't really depend on the Steelers wide receivers.

And I don't think it really depends on how many plays the Steelers run. I think it depends on how good Ben Roethlisberger is. I think that's the ultimate question. If we're still dealing with a Ben Roethlisberger who is afraid to take a sack and won't stand in the pocket and is throwing these four-yard passes every time out, I don't think much is going to matter. I think it's going to be really hard for this offense to be much better than average just because we saw, especially in the second half of last season,

when they really bogged down that way, this was just an ugly offense to watch. And it took a lot to move the ball on. It took a lot to find the end zone. I'm just not sure what to expect from Ben Roethlisberger in that way. I can be talked into both sides. I can be talked into the idea that a year further removed from surgery, he's got a little more arm strength, he plays a little more comfortable, and he's willing to take those chances that he wasn't last season. On the other hand, he's also a year older. And he's a year less athletic and a year less physical

and a year further removed from his prime. So I'm erring on the side of this continuing to be a pretty conservative offense um when it comes to how often they pass throw the ball downfield especially which is why i think i'm quite a bit lower on chase claypool especially than the um than the consensus well and i think also like if ben's throwing 600 and 600 passes versus 650 that makes a bigger difference maybe for Claypool because we expect him to be more efficient on a per target basis. And the difference between the 95 and 115 targets for Claypool is the

difference between being someone you'd want to start as a wide receiver three and not maybe so. And then kind of also the same thing for Juju, unless you expect him to have a big bounce back in terms of efficiency, he needs 140 targets to be a number two wide receiver. Or he needs the efficiency to bounce back, which hopefully both of those things happen. But it's, there's plenty of reason for questions

with that Pittsburgh offense. The one thing we do have pretty similar is the ratio of targets going to Deontay and then juju and then claypool yeah yeah i think that i think that's pretty set just because of the type of receivers that they are you know i think um you know claypool being the downfield guy deontay being the intermediate guy juju's kind of the wild card because he's been, you know, multiple different types of receivers in his career. And I think last year was a really poor usage of him in a way that they kind of had to lean on because of Roethlisberger's limitations. But, you know, ultimately the target share, the,

the number of plays run that matters. But I think the biggest thing is just what does Roethlisberger look like? And I don't think we're going to get an answer to that in training camp. I don't think we're going to get an answer to that in the preseason. I think if you went back to training camp reports last year, it was, oh, you know, Roethlisberger's looking pretty good. He's throwing the ball with decent velocity. There wasn't like, boy, Ben Roethlisberger looks like a shell of himself,

which I think is what we mostly got in the regular season. Heath, how important is it? Biggest fact. How important is it for you, Heath, to have a piece of this passing game? I'm not actively targeting them. They mostly make me nervous. I end up with Juju a lot in round six because I think he's a round

five wide receiver, so that's good, but he's really the only one that I usually draft. Okay, when we come back, let's talk about Myles Gaskin. As Gaskin and Malcolm Brown are projected to be the top two running backs by both Heath and Chris, and they both have them combining for right around 340 carries. But the split is very different if you look at the projections. And then we'll take a look at Josh Jacobs

and Kenyon Drake. Both Heath and Chris have Jacobs at 254 carries in 17 games, but what kind of role do they have for Kenyon Drake? That is very different. We'll also read your emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com, and we'll be right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right

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All right, Myles Gaskin. He scored 13 or more PPR fantasy points in, I think, eight of nine games that he, you know, got a lot of work and significant work. He was really, really good for fantasy. I want to talk about whether or not he was actually good because that's another story. But if we just look at your projections, Heath has Gaskin and Brown combining for 336 carries. Chris has them combining for 340 carries, but the split, like I mentioned before the break, is different. 204 carries for Gaskin for Heath and 234 carries for Gaskin for Chris.

So, Heath, you have a bigger role for Malcolm Brown, not necessarily a fantasy-relevant one, but I guess I should say a smaller role for Myles Gaskin at 204 carries. Yeah, and it's not um like i i think we've got a lot to find out still about miles gaskin and whether because they they gave him for like a six game stretch a true workhorse back role he did have trouble staying healthy with that role and malcolm Brown's fine in that secondary short yardage role. So I do think there's a possibility, obviously,

that Malcolm Brown sees a little more carries than what Chris is projecting. But I'm projecting, I think, Gaskin closer to his floor as a low-end No. 2 running back. And Chris is projecting him a little bit higher as a mid-range guy. Yeah, and the thing that i come back to with this offense is that you know gaskin played 10 games he didn't start all of them but he played 10 games he played 61 of the snaps in every game savan akmed started three games with miles gaskin inactive and also played at least 61 of the snaps in each of those games. So now you're talking about 13 games where, you know, one of the two clear top options on the team, they got, you know, that's not

like every single down workhorse work, but you know, that's, that's the kind of running back share, especially if you're getting third down work, like both of them were, where that's a pretty valuable player that's, you know, in a decent offense, you're probably looking at at least an RB2. And you can say, well, Malcolm Brown wasn't there, but for Malcolm Brown's career, he's always been someone we thought of as just like an afterthought at best, just a guy. And Myles Gaskin may just be just a guy, to be clear. I think he was pretty good in the passing game last season but you know not necessarily anything special as a rusher so

is malcolm brown good enough relative to the guys they had behind miles gaskin last season to cut into that role significantly and more specifically is he going to cut into that role in particularly valuable ways? You know, passing downs and goal line work. I think the goal line work he will. I think that that seems pretty clear based on how they use Gaskin last season. But given the fact that, you know, when Sivan Ahmed was the only starter that they felt comfortable with, when Gaskin wasn't healthy, they used Ahmed the way they used Gaskin. And then when Gaskin was healthy healthy they used Achmed the way they used Gaskin and then when Gaskin was healthy they just didn't really use Achmed um that said suggests to me that they did really like Myles Gaskin last year and they liked what he brought to the field so my thought is that

Malcolm Brown's probably going to have a more limited role um and I still have him for like 100 carries, which is probably more than anybody on the Dolphins had paced out for when Gaskin was healthy. Yeah, and Gaskin, I don't know. I feel like in our drafts, which are usually full PPR and three wide receivers, I don't see him

lasting until the 57th pick, but that's his ADP right now on NFC since June 1st, right after Kareem Hunt, right after Javante Williams, down 56th. So it's like Williams, Hunt, Gaskin are basically back-to-back-to-back.

Yeah, I mean, look, we talk about Mike Davis, and it's like, oh, is Mike Davis good? We haven't had too many discussions about Myles Gaskin, but there's not a ton of evidence that he's super good. You know, his longest carry of the year was 26 yards. He doesn't have explosive breakaway speed.

He ran a 4.5840. He was a seventh-round pick. He didn't measure well in the elusive rating on PFF. He didn't break a ton of tackles. He didn't have a lot of yards per carry after contact, but he also didn't have a good offensive line, but I don't know. There's nothing that really says miles Gaskin is so good.

I try to watch a lot of miles Gaskin film, you know, whatever, which is a silly, but I think it's hard to me. It's really hard to look at running backs and evaluate them. I think it's much easier to look at wide receivers and evaluate them, but I don't know.

I just don't really have a ton of confidence in him as a player. And I, I would spend a late fifth round pick on him. But if it's a running back heavy draft and he starts going in the fourth round or something, I wouldn't do that. I view him like Mike Davis. Who do you guys like better between the two of them, I guess? You seem to have a pretty big difference in your mind

between a fourth and a fifth round pick. Like when we talk about these guys going around five, that seems way too late, but you do not want to use a fourth round pick on them. Yeah, I think there is a big difference there. I don't think there's a big difference in the wide receivers being selected around four and five. But once you get past round five,

most of the elite tight ends are off the board. Most of the potentially elite tight ends are off the board. Most of the potentially elite tight ends are off the board. The quarterbacks are going to start coming off the board at this point. But yeah, I mean, you're for, yeah, I don't want to have a boss in my first four picks.

You're right. I, this is a 12 team league, by the way, I'm always thinking 12 teams. There is something different about a fifth round pick than a fourth round pick to me. A big difference.

I will just say when it comes to running backs, at least over the last five seasons, the big difference is the third round where over the last five years, eight of 21 third round running backs have scored at least 200 plus fantasy points. Whereas in the fourth and fifth round is eight out of 35. So that is where that dead zone starts. Running backs draft in the fourth and fifth round,

at least over the last five seasons, have been pretty yucky. Because you get a lot of guys like Myles Gaskin. Yeah. And, right, so if I'm going to take a running back in the fourth round, I need to feel pretty damn confident about him, and that's not how I feel about Myles Gaskin. I think the lesson might be that anyone who the industry is letting fall to the fourth round, you should not feel pretty damn confident in them.

At running back or at any? Yeah, I mean, there are apparent exceptions this year, notably Josh Jacobs at 38.3 and Chris Carson at 41.6. Carson was the one I was going to go to, but I don't feel as confident in Jacobs as you guys do I'm less confident in Jacobs than Heath is everybody is I mean I've

got him like 17th I there's a big difference we I feel like when Josh Jacobs is talked about or evaluated it's like well I mean he's obviously not going to live up to that first round draft mean he's obviously not going to live up to that first round draft pick he's obviously not going to be an rb1 and you're not drafting rb1s in the fourth

round right yeah that's the other question is what kind of expectations do you have for your fourth round pick at least i would at least like them to have a chance to be an rb1 i don't think it's hard to argue that gaskin and Mike Davis don't when they both gave us longer stretches of RB1 production last year than guys were drafting in the first round this year. And yet I don't feel like they really did. I just, I don't know. I understand.

That's what everybody says. You don't add. Okay. First of all, there's a few things with Gaskin. Tua threw the ball to running backs a lot less frequently than Fitzpatrick did last year. Don't know if that'll translate to this year. Don't know. You don't add Will Fuller and Jalen Waddell, though,

and expect Myles Gaskin to have the same role to me in the passing game. The bigger question, though, because it doesn't... We talk about running back talent, and you were kind of laughing at yourself for watching Myles Gaskin film. And if Miles Gaskin and or Mike Davis get 18 touches a game, and their rosters are currently constructed in a way where that's a possibility, then they have running back one upside. Any person who an NFL team puts a helmet on and gives him 18 touches a game has running back one upside. Yeah, I completely agree.

I'm pretty running back agnostic when it comes to, I'm talent agnostic when it comes to running back in a large degree. I'm not though, because if he doesn't have that much talent, he's not going to keep getting

18 carries per game. Sure. Because, but he did last year. Yes, he did. And it worked out pretty well. And for some reason, I... And it's not the same for Davis, who did start losing work.

Davis' workload was less consistent last season, and he's on a new team. The reason I'm more confident in Gaskin than I am with Davis is he's coming back to the same team. They had opportunities to make upgrades. They didn't. And we saw him in this role on that team consistently whereas davis's role did fluctuate a bit with the panthers and one we don't actually know if atlanta's offense is good

for running backs we just kind of assume it is but it's kind of been a while since that's been true um and you know if you're telling me davis and gaskin are both average or below average talents which i think is completely reasonable i think gaskin's in a better situation what do you think heath i mean it's really it's parsing between the falcons and the dolphins as a situation is um very difficult and there's room for disagreement. But I think the Falcons are going to score more touchdowns, and I think the Falcons have a better offensive line, and I think the Falcons have less current competition for touches at running back than the Dolphins.

I think Malcolm Brown and Savan Ahmed are better than Kadri Olsen and Cordero Patterson. Okay, look. If you look... I really have no opinion on that one. If you look at Myles Gass, I think basically it might come down to this. I think Myles Gass

needs to be very involved in the passing game to return fourth round value and pretty involved in the passing game to return fifth round value. Because I just don't think he's that good of a runner. And that's basically what it comes down to. And look, he had a ton of catches last year.

He had 41 catches in 10 games. So, like I said, they did not, you're right, they didn't upgrade the running back position. They upgraded the rest of the offense, though. So maybe they won't be as reliant on Myles Gaskin. Maybe they will try to make it to his team a little bit more. And that would hurt Gaskin. But yeah, I picked these guys out because they're not easy.

They're not easy calls. So our last one is the Vegas running backs. And Josh, you guys would rather have Jacobson Gaskin? I have Gaskin ahead. I have Jacobs ahead. Heath, who do you have? Jacobs or McCaffrey at this point? I don't understand.

It's really frustrating that I clearly rank Jacobs below where anyone's ranked in the last two years, and we act like I'm the Josh Jacobs lover now because I have him 18th. Yeah, he's 21st at ADP but he just seems to be among the CBS crew. The guy always takes Josh Jacobs.

It's kind of like Jacobs is below Dobbins in ADP, right? Yes. Oh, yes. Big time. I kind of get it but I don't really get it. I could see him having Dob it, but I don't really get it. I could see him having Dobbins ahead, but I don't think it should be a huge gap.

I think Jacobs is such a good running back. I don't understand what happened to him last year. He looked like a real star as a rookie. I think it was his offensive line. I really think that was a big part of it. He was like eight running back last year. Yeah, but he was 3.9 yards per carry. He didn't have big plays like he did as a rookie.

He didn't run the ball as well as he did as a rookie. You agree with that, right? I believe that's true. That's a hundred. Come on. That's obviously true. He just scored a lot more touchdowns in his second year. Yeah.

The problem with him his first year is I don't know why Josh Jacobs doesn't score touchdowns. Yeah. All right. Look. You know why Josh Jacobs doesn't score touchdowns. Yeah. All right. Look, you know what? No, this is not fair. All the criticisms that people have for Josh Jacobs are so legit. You can't just sweep them under the rug. But my point is just like in the realm of running backs who are going to get a lot of carries but not catch a lot of passes.

Jacobs is kind of fourth out of what i think are kind of like the four obvious ones and that's you know henry and chubb obviously way ahead of him but dobbins doesn't have the track record to put way ahead of him and i'm not sure his situation is that much better than jacobs so in in, at least, I do think Dobbins is, or Jacobs is a little underrated. I'm a little on... Oh, by the way, do you not... Although I don't think he agrees with me

on Jacobs versus Dobbins. Do you not put Miles Sanders on that list in terms of running backs who won't get a lot of catches? Oh, I think he's got the potential to have a much bigger role in the passing game. I mean, we've seen that before. That's the thing is that all the other guys, Henry, Jacobs, Chubb, Dobbins,

we've never seen them be used that way in the passing game in the NFL. Sanders had a very big role and a very valuable role in the passing game as a rookie. And even early on last season, he wasn't catching the balls, which is a problem in and of itself, but he had the role. Yeah, no, absolutely. No dispute there. You guys both have Jacobs projected for 15 carries per game, 254 for the season,

but Heath has Drake getting 136 carries, and Chris has Drake getting 97 carries. 97 carries. I don't know. That's a lot of running, isn't it, between Jacobs and Drake? Well, those two numbers together is 390, right?

Yes. Yes. That's not really very many rush attempts. Okay. So then, Chris, what's missing there? Why do you have... Is there another runner? I've got Jan Rashard for a handful. A couple dozen mean I've got a shard for a handful

a couple dozen so do I I got him for 14 so yeah I've got him for 423 total as a team I have my 453 and although all of that difference appears to be Kenyan Drake yeah and then basically I just I have Kenyan Drake with a bigger role in the passing game that you know there there was talk

about them using him as a as a wide receiver at times splitting them out wide and i just think that's probably the best usage of him in this offense and that's the that's the thing i really struggle with with kenyan drake and this situation because everyone i think agrees it makes no sense to give kenyan drake 11 million dollars to play running back when you have Josh Jacobs. Everyone agrees that was a poor decision. Yeah. Yes. Throwing the ball a bunch to Kenyon Drake based on his historical success

also appears to be a poor decision. He's had one season where he was above average as a pass catcher. Well, we have to keep in mind, John Gruden may not be good at the talent evaluation part of the job. Right. But that's why I don't have him projected for as many targets as Chris does. John Gruden may not be good at the talent evaluation part of the job. Right. But I just, I, that's why I don't have him projected for as many targets as Chris does is

just, I, and maybe that's just me. I should like, I don't have any, they haven't done it yet. So I don't have anything to base them doing it on other than some speculation.

And when I look at what he has done as a player, that doesn't appear to be one of his strengths. Part of it for me, they have thrown the ball. They have thrown the ball to their running backs quite a bit in the past. Yeah, but it's gone down two straight seasons and last year was actually pretty low. Sure.

I have them for 119 targets for their running backs, which is probably a little higher than last year. Yeah, I don't know why they got away from that, but the top, yeah, I think I gave this stat last week, but over the last three seasons, the top three running backs, anyone with more than 10 catches for the Raiders, combined for 101 catches in 2018,

92 catches in 2019, and 69 catches in 2020. Nice. So, you know, it's gone down. That's a personnel thing. I think they went from DeAndre Washington as one of the three to Devontae Booker as one of the three last season.

And so they had two guys who aren't great pass catchers out of the three. But Jalen Rashad had 19 catches last year. He had 38. Did he he i don't remember that he had 68 then 36 and then 19 i don't remember jaylen richard's games played yeah um i whereas i think they i'm assuming they view drake as a better pass catcher than booker or jacobs given the money that they gave him and so that that's where i come down on that um which is why i have jacobs as a fringe number three running back i think or drake as a fringe number three running back but i you know i i certainly don't feel super strongly about drafting kenyan drake he's rb 31 for me but there's not much difference between many of the guys

in that range to like 45. Okay, anything to add? No. Okay, great. Well, I'll add this. You should be watching CBS Sports HQ. Start your day at 8 a.m. Eastern with Morning Buzz,

an hour of highlights, news, and all the days need to know. And come back or leave us on all day at 6 p.m. We're going to break down all of tonight's action and release dozens of picks from the best analysts and cappers in the sports world. How do you watch CBS Sports HQ? So easy.

Go to your Roku, your Apple TV, your Fire TV, most connected TVs, and look for the CBS Sports app. Fire it up. Check out HQ. That's the only 24-7 free sports streaming network on the CBS Sports app, baby. Fire it up. Check out HQ. That's the only 24-7 free sports streaming network on the CBS Sports app, baby. Make it happen. All right.

Time for your emails. Fantasyfootball.cbsi.com. This one is from Cooper. Every now and then, Cooper will send me an email that he obviously worked on for so long with some statistical breakdown. And this one is about Austin Eckler.

And he's worried that we're too high on Austin Eckler. And he gives a list of reasons. One, Eckler has never topped 132 carries, 557 rushing yards, or three rushing touchdowns in a season. One, he has a new head coach and an offensive staff with no loyalty to him. I'll skip a few of them.

He, four, down to four, he has a new offensive coordinator that has no loyalty to him and uses multiple backs with the Saints. Five, he is not Alvin Kamara. Kamara is 5'10",

215. Eckler is 5'8", 200 pounds. Six, Eckler is closer to Theo Riddick or JD McKissick in terms of height and weight. Seven,

Eckler has not been the goal lineback and there's little reason for that to change now. Then he gave a stat on... Oh, eight. Okay, this is good. In Eckler's nine healthy games, he faced what had to be the easiest rushing schedule in the NFL. The Bengals, Chiefs, Panthers, Bills, Patriots,

Falcons, Raiders, Broncos, and Chiefs again. That's actually pretty interesting. You can ignore number nine. I already replied to Cooper. We had to update that one. Ten, the defense is healthier and should be much better this year. That's pretty much it. Yeah, so a lot of reasons why Cooper thinks we are too high on Austin Eckler.

I don't. I don't. I appreciate Cooper listening to our show and emailing us regularly and the time and effort that he put into this email i have um i think three years ago tweeted out that austin eckler basically was alvin camara and from an efficiency standpoint as a football player he's been very close to alvin camara and like that is not because of size. You can find on three different sites, three different listings for the weight and height of Austin Eckler and Alvin Kamara.

It's within 10 to 15 pounds. And yeah, injury concern could be a concern. But I don't care if he only has 132 rush attempts this season. The offensive coordinator in Los Angeles is going to use him like Alvin Kamara was used. He is phenomenal at that role and has been one of the most efficient pass-catching running backs in the NFL

since he joined the league. And the hole doesn't have any loyalty to him joshua kelly was so bad last year they were playing calum bellage and justin jackson over him larry roundtree is a sixth round pick there's not anybody else to give the ball to they will share carries for sure but only because they don't want to give eckler 350 touches is eckler a first round pick in a non-PPR league? Is he a first-round pick in a half-PPR league? No.

Not even in half-PPR? I think he's close in a half-PPR. Okay. Surefire in a full-PPR league. But he's played, over the last three seasons, he's played four fewer games than Alvin Kamara. He has 198 fewer receiving yards and three more receiving touchdowns in those four fewer games.

So he's been a better receiver than Kamara. Three seasons over 10 yards per reception as a receiver for a running back is ridiculous. He said he's been one of the most efficient pass-catching running backs since he entered the league. He's been one of the most efficient pass-catching running backs of all time, especially when you account for the very large usage that he's had. He doesn't have to be Alvin Kamara to justify his current draft costs because he's not being drafted as high as him.

And nobody's expecting him to have that same role. Come on, make the prediction right now. Do it. Say Eckler's going to be better than Kamara. Go. I know you want to. I have Kamara as the number two running back. And I have Eckler as number four.

So there's no way I can make that call. I will say, Cooper, you said that he's never been a goal linebacker when Melvin Gordon missed the first four games of the 2019 season. Austin Eckler had three. Oh, no, one of them was receiving. He had two one-yard rushing touchdowns in four games

and a one-yard touchdown catch. So take that, Cooper. All right, but Cooper's my man, and keep writing in. All right, but Cooper's my man. And keep writing in. From Brady. Subject line, Daniel Jones, top five upside. And then he says, hello, Adrian, Robert, Leroy,

and Ontario. Vikings running backs? Interesting. All right, keeper question. In a one quarterback PPR league with a $200 budget, I can keep only for one year. Calvin Ridley for $9,

Jonathan Taylor for $16, or J.K. Dobbins for $0? Sorry, Daniel Jones is terrible. Again, $200 budget. It's PPR, Calvin Ridley for $9. He's not quite Calvin yet. He hasn't gotten there. Jonathan Taylor for $16, J.K. Dob Ridley for nine. He's not quite Calvin yet. He hasn't gotten there. Jonathan Taylor for 16.

J.K. Dobbins for zero. I mean, by any fantasy point per dollar metric, J.K. Dobbins is the obvious choice, but I'm going to say he's third here. I think Taylor and Ridley are quite a bit better than him, and a $9 and $16 difference in a $200 budget is nothing. It's very, very. It's not nothing, right?

Do you go Taylor or Ridley? Oh, you can only keep one. Yeah. Oh, Ridley. I think I'd go Ridley too. Believe it or not, I'd go Ridley. Get it? Yeah. No, I do get it. I have Ridley projected for more points. Believe it or not, I'd go Ridley. Get it? You know?

No, I do get it. I have Ridley projected for more points. Believe it or not, Ridley. Just going to go right past it, Adam. Okay, from Tim. I thought this was funny. He gave us longitude 39 degrees north, 105 degrees west. Dear Ricky, Pedro, Jake, and Dorn.

Major League. PPR Keeper League. We can keep up to three players for a maximum of three years, with the keeper cost being one round higher than where the player was drafted the previous year. I took Justin Jefferson in the 12th round last season. I finished second,

so I am picking 11th. Is it worth trading Justin Jefferson, who can be kept in the 11th round, and my 202 pick to get 103 and 2.9. I would use 103 on Kelsey, and then I would have my choice of Clyde Edwards-Elair

or Keenan Allen at 209. So it's essentially Kelsey and and cea turkin and alan for jefferson and 202 no you wouldn't do that i don't think so i i don't think so I think it would be close, though. Okay. This is from Barrett. Best ball question. You've talked about some interesting draft strategies where a player's inconsistency might reduce his value in regular fantasy,

but the high weekly upside provides more value in best ball. Example, Tyler Lockett is more valuable in best ball if you stack him with DKk metcalf since you don't have to care which week one hits versus the other do you guys agree with that by the way um i would i definitely agree with players that are like tyler lockett and dk metcalf being more valuable in best ball than they are in redraft. I don't... And I don't... It's not quite as true, I think,

the combination of Lockett and Metcalf, but I do... It is true. But lesser so. Okay. Anyways, I know rankings in ADP can be dumb, but I need a sanity check on the following. Regardless of whether he's good for the team,

if Jameis Winston is the starting quarterback, he can be an elite fantasy quarterback. If he's bad and gets bench, if Jameis Winston is the starting quarterback, he can be an elite fantasy quarterback. If he's bad and gets benched and Taysom Hill is the quarterback, he has elite fantasy upside. In other words, if you don't need to know or care who will start in any given week, the two combined are basically an elite fantasy quarterback, right? But their ADP and best ball means you could get them in rounds 15 and 18.

So it just seems too good of a value to be true. A value to be true. What am I missing here with Jameis Winston and Jalen Hurts? Sorry, and Taysom Hill. Nothing. Yeah, I think you guys agree with that. Yes, the only thing you're missing is that

when you draft one of Jameis in round 15, Taysom doesn't come with him in round 18. Right, you have to take them. You probably have to take them back to back. Yeah. It is a roster spot that you're using.

That's useless. It like makes I also I've seen it a lot. A lot of times with those guys one of them gets taken and the other one goes pretty shortly after. Yeah.

Because there's somebody in the league that thinks well why Jameis just go I'd rather have Taysom or vice versa. Yep. That happened to me actually. I think that works

in a two QB league as well. You know, like in, in Scott fishbowl, you know, people who are in the Beyonce division don't listen to this, but I would love to end up with Jamison and taste them. If I don't,

you know, take a second QB early. I, if, if that's my number two QB, I'm thrilled with it because I, I feel very confident I'm going to have a starting caliber QB. Good show guys. Good show,

guys. Good stuff. Live mock draft tomorrow. Get excited and check out Fantasy Football Today in five as well for Chris and Heath. I am Adam. Thanks so much for listening and for watching on YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today. Make sure you go and nominate us on podcastawards.com

and would you like the hint to the band that I had the t-shirt and the cell phone ring for? Yes, of course. One of their songs was used as the theme song for a popular TV show in that era.

Oh, they might be giants. Nope. Alright, we'll talk to you later. See ya.