Fantasy Football Today - Mostert and Achane dominate Week 3, Risers & Fallers, Deep Waiver Wire Targets, and More! (09/26 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Episode Date: September 27, 2023

Looking to dominate your fantasy league just like your redraft league? Look no further than Fantasy Football Today Dynasty hosted by our very own Heath Cummings! Download and follow Fantasy Football Today Dynasty on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you find your podcasts.  Chris Towers joins Heath Cummings on FFT Dynasty! First, the guys discuss Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and all things Dolphins-related. (3:50) Then, they discuss Mike Williams' injury (11:00) and what it means for Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston. Next, the guys discuss deep waiver wire targets (17:50) like Jameis Winston, Aidan O'Connell, Melvin Gordon, Jaleel McLaughlin, Darius Slayton, and others. Finally, the guys wrap up with dynasty risers and fallers (40:02), including Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Brock Purdy, George Pickens, C.J. Stroud, and more! Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings.

And after the Dolphins hang 70 on the Broncos, I thought I must have the Dolphins fan join me. Chris Towers here on Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty. You want to object to the fact that you're a Dolphins fan or you'll own it today? No, the way I always describe it is I grew up a Dolphins fan. I watched the Dan Marino era, Jay Fiedler, Cleo Lemon. And then at some point they were just so hopeless while I was in college that I just stopped caring.

Right. But it's still it's like a phantom limb. It's still there. You know, like when when people get like an arm amputated, they can still feel it. That's how I feel about it i i don't really like it's i can't believe it that they're actually good dan marino never hung 70 on anybody right i think he might have gotten 70 hung on him in his final game if i'm remembering correctly it might have been 62 against the jaguars in the playoffs but you know like that's the thing is that most of my Dolphins memories are just pain.

There's not a lot of positive growing up in the 90s as a Dolphins fan. So I don't want to ride the wave now. It's stolen valor. There were people who were there during the Chad Haney era. Is Tua already the third best quarterback in Dolphins history? Who's the second? Bob Greasy, right? Yeah, Bob Greasy, I guess, he won a Super Bowl.

That's it. I think the backup played most of that undefeated season, didn't he? If I'm remembering correctly. It's not a strong quarterbacking legacy after Dan Marino is what we're saying. We are going to talk waiver wire. We've got to talk the Mike Williams torn ACL. We're going to talk dynasty risers and fallers. We've got a special guest coming on at the end of the show.

But first, we'll get to three questions about the Dolphins. And no, none of them are about Chris's fandom or Dan Marino. This one would have been controversial, maybe even last week, but it doesn't seem to be now based on the Twitter poll I ran yesterday in a dynasty league, Chris, Trevor Lawrence or to a tongue of Iowa. I think I'll still go with Trevor Lawrence, if only because there is basically no scenario. I mean, I don't want to say no scenario, anything can happen, but there's very few scenarios in which Trevor Lawrence is not a starting quarterback in the NFL in 2024 and 2025. Like, however poorly this season goes, and I think his struggles this season have been probably overblown it's we're doing the thing where we over correct when we overrate a player and I think that's what's happened with Trevor

Lawrence where people just kind of anointed him as an elite quarterback this offseason based on not a lot of evidence and now he hasn't been that for the first three games. And so there's a little bit more. Oh, is Trevor Lawrence even all that good? And like, yes, he's very, very good. And he's had an unusually unlucky start to the season. The Calvin Ridley dropped at least one touchdown over the past couple of games. Remember that Chiefs game where they went 0 for 6

on throws in the red zone or in the end zone? Like four of them guys had at least one foot down. It's been very close to a very, very good season for Trevor Lawrence. Kevin Ridley played really poorly. He was bad. He was bad. He had two really bad drops. He had two false starts.

I think he's the only non-offensive lineman with more than one false start this season. It was bad, but I still think he's going to be fine. It's just probably not in the Joe Burrow class, where I think Tua Tungvaluwa is absolutely in the Joe Burrow class from a performance perspective. He's played. We don't even have to do the let's take away the injury games anymore. He's played 16 We don't even have to do the let's take away the injury games anymore. He's played 16 games at QB. He's averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game with 4,500 yards and 33 he's absolutely at the top of the next tier behind burrow and behind hertz allen and mahomes for redraft for fantasy though obviously the downside hasn't changed unless we really think that like the offseason training and doing what when my tie was it uh has really like made it i think that's a drink i thought it was a

type of fighting style as well i don't know i don't know anything about fighting you but you know things about drinks uh taekwondo taekwondo maybe i thought was what it was it might have been my tie but i'm pretty sure it wasn't um yeah i think i would i said that very confidently in a two quarterback league or a super flex league i could agree with you that trevor lawrence's floor is enough to rank him ahead of two in a one quarterback league we talk about this all the time like how much do you really care about the guy's floor you can you can stream 18 fantasy points a game and trevor lawrence's hasn't hasn't been much better than 18 fantasy points a game, and Trevor Lawrence hasn't been much better than 18 fantasy points per game in his career.

Well, there was that one month where he was really good. So yeah, I'll take two in a one quarterback league. Question number two, is Raheem Mostert a buy for a win now team, or is he strictly a sell because of age, because of injury risk because of like obviously going to be sharing in the backfield now i think he might be a buy solely because everybody's saying he's a cell and it's one of those things where there is so much you know both in redraft and

in dynasty there is so much of a uh-oh devon a chain is devon a chan how are we saying it hn hn okay is um is just going to take this backfield and mike mcdaniel yesterday had a press conference where he talked about you know we want to use multiple backs we like the skill sets that they bring if you watch the game they use them fairly differently a chan was a lot of you know outside zone getting him to stretch the defense and then hit the cut and he looked great but you know you probably can't build the entire rushing offense out of that and raheem most it's a really good player who brings what miami wants in the running game as well he's a big play guy himself he's super fast i don't think he's just going to go away.

So in dynasty yet, I think there's absolutely a window to buy most or because he's still probably going to get 12 to 15 carries most week in a very, very good offense. And the way that the dolphins use their running backs in the passing game in week three was so interesting because it really was just one of those situations where it was like mike mcdaniel just decided that's what they were going to do well they just did it at an incredibly high level because jaylen wattle was out right yeah that makes sense i don't think we should expect this to be a high volume no um targets for running backs as soon as jaylen wattle is back but let's get to HN because he did. We're going to do risers and fallers at the end.

We won't talk about HN because we're going to talk about him right here. He is now my RB20. He was RB27 going into last week. Yes, it was just one game. But I didn't know if Mostert was going to hold on to a feature role until Jeff Wilson got back. And then we're looking at three to five touches for HN this year. So what do you think the ceiling is for HN? He had about 220 was his max number of touches in college.

He is a smaller guy with some injury concerns. What do you think the highest he could rise to in dynasty is? I think top 12 fairly easily. The part of that is just how many running backs do you really feel great about right now? You know, I mean, like Brees Hall, I think, is an elite talent. But all of a sudden, his quarterback is either Zach Wilson or a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming back from an Achilles injury next season. And then you're starting to talk about getting into his fourth year and the team having to make long-term decisions

based on an offense that hasn't worked. So I wouldn't rank Devon A. Chan as a top 12 running back, but I think he could absolutely get there. Like, is there that big of a difference between him and James Cook? Well, yes. At this very moment, James Cook is about as close to a

feature back as we're going to get. He is currently I would project probably 10 more touches for Cook next week than A-Chain. But yeah, A-Chain could move into that role for sure. I think he maybe profiles slightly worse in terms of somebody who might get 15 to 20 carries per game.

See, James Cook had very little usage that way in college. No, usage-wise not, but just size-wise. Yeah, James Cook's pretty small. He's 190 pounds. He's 5'11", 190. He was a role player in college, obviously playing at Georgia. Even very good players can be role players at Georgia, and it won't be a knock on them.

So I don't necessarily want to say he can't be that, and we're seeing in Buffalo that they really like him for 90% of the field. Once they get near the goal line, they seem to just forget that he exists. I don't quite understand that, but it is what it is. And I'm not sure how likely that is to change. So I think as much as I think James Cook cook is a very interesting talent and i like what he's shown so far until they really change the way they view him i think there's a hard ceiling and so you know you've got him as rb10 i think that's perfectly reasonable in dynasty but i also just think that speaks to how relatively easy it would be for a Chan to move into that range just because

the offense that he plays in the explosiveness that he plays with you know he might be a guy who can be a 200 carry 30 catch guy which is a relatively small role for a for a high-end fantasy running back but because of the offense and his explosiveness, he might just be a must-start fantasy running back anyway. Let's get to a couple of news items here. There's lots of news, but we're just going to cover a couple of the big things for Dynasty purposes. Mike Williams, obviously out for the season, torn ACL, terrible for him.

We hope there's a quick recovery. He turns 29 years old next week. The contract situation, I think, pretty easy for the Chargers to get out of. They've got Quentin Johnston. They've got Josh Palmer.

Would you send a second round pick to stash Mike Williams for the year on your IR slot or no better than a third? Do you have any hope that he's ever going to be a starting fantasy wide receiver again? I think a third is probably the most I would do. It's terrible because he's a really good player. You know, he's always been banged up, but he generally plays through his injuries. He really hasn't missed all that much time over the course of his career. And so he's been sort of unfairly tagged with the injury prone label when I don't necessarily think it was fair. But yeah, he's

got a $33 million cap hit with $12 million dead cap next year. So whether it's a restructure and add another year on top of it or just an outright cut, it seems likely that Mike Williams is going to be on a different team next year. A big part of the argument for him is he's this big athletic wide receiver who's tied to an elite quarterback. And all of a sudden, I think part of the reason they drafted Quentin Johnston was with the idea that he could step into the Mike Williams role in this offense and replace what Williams brought to the table. That might be happening sooner than they hoped.

But if he looks good, it certainly might make Mike Williams even more expendable, assuming he comes back from the injury 100%, which we've seen a lot of guys come back and play, but not necessarily be themselves. So yeah, I think a third round pick is the most I would give up for him. I do think this is kind of an inflection point for Quentin Johnston's dynasty value, because it was pretty easy to not be disturbed in dynasty by his lack of production, because they've got Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Josh Palmer. Sure. He he's better as the third wide receiver in this offense. That doesn't bother us at all. Now it kind of gets to a situation where Johnston needs to

start producing or he is going to start losing dynasty value, right? Yeah. I mean, I think the thing that you always have to keep in mind with rookie wide receivers is it can take time. You know, A.J. Brown wasn't really a viable fantasy option until well into his rookie season. He flashed early on, but he wasn't playing anywhere near full time snaps early on. So I think what we want to see from Quentin Johnson is to start to flash, even if he's still a 50% route participation rate guy. We want to start seeing them get him involved. I think he will be a big part of the offense in design plays. At least in an ideal world, that's what we want to see.

We want to see them getting him involved in the running game, getting involved in screens. Even if he's not earning a lot of targets, we want to start to see some of those design passes because he's, you know, in theory, so good with the ball in his hands. And that would be the way to replace some of what Mike Williams brings to the table. So it's not necessarily that I'm looking for Quentin Johnston to immediately become a fantasy relevant wide receiver. I'm hoping he can do that. And I think he should be the priority on waivers and redraft ahead of Josh Palmer, just because I,

I don't care about 11 PPR points, you know? And I think that's what you're going to get from Josh Palmer. Well, but I think like for our purposes on the waiver wire, Quinton Johnston's rostered everywhere and Josh Palmer's rostered in less than 10% of leagues, which is kind of our cap for what we talk about for Dynasty League. So I do think it's rare that you find somebody on a Dynasty waiver wire who has the potential to help you the way that Josh Palmer's going to. Sure.

I think he's a number three wide receiver starting this week, And the question is, how long can he hold on to that? That might be how long is Austin Eckler limited? Because it's possible that Quinton Johnston and Josh Palmer, neither one really matter that much because we've got 30 targets a game going to Keenan Allen and Austin Eckler. But in a league where the types of players like Palmer don't pop up very often, like our YOLO Dynasty League, I don't believe he's actually available, but he's the type of player that could be.

That's a guy you might go 30, 40% of your fab and then plan on starting him as a number three wide receiver until Quentin Johnston shows something, right? Yeah, I think that's fair. I do just want to like, Keenan Allen in Dynasty is such an interesting one because he might just

be a top four wide receiver this season and that offense with the way Justin Herbert's throwing the ball it's it's been so impressive and I feel like we've seen stretches like this from Keenan Allen at the start of a season and he's slowed down so you know I don't want to overreact but he he looks so freaking awesome in this offense I think he's one of those guys that are just huge, wild swing opportunities. Because you're right, he could be a top four wide receiver, and we could be one injury away from his value is nothing better than a third-round pick via trade. And so I do think that that is... And Zach Moss is another one of those guys like we

can just talk about him real quick because he's not anywhere else in the show and I do think he has that same type of not not as high but probably lower wild swing potential in the next two weeks but then he's legitimately a top 20 running back for the rest of this season if Jonathan Taylor then you have two outs. Jonathan Taylor comes back week five, the Colts immediately trade him to maybe the Baltimore Ravens. Cause I think that's the only team who was considering him that might still be interested. The dolphins probably aren't.

I mean, I could see green Bay with how the, their reported interest and the fact that AJ Dillon just looks awful. Yeah. Looks completely dusted. I could see that yeah we I guess Green Bay either way either way if Zach Moss is the lead running back for the Colts that's that's a huge win and the type of player for at least a contender it might cost

you a first round pick to acquire at the same time if Taylor comes back and plays the rest of the season for the Colts, Zach Moss is completely worthless. He's going to be back on the waiver wire in the Dynasty League. So I'm okay trying to make that bet right now, whichever way you want to bet on it. You want to sell him for a second-round pick? You want to try to acquire him for a second-round pick? There's profit opportunity on both sides.

Let's take a quick break. Nothing more than a second-round pick, though. Nothing more than a second-round pick. Let's take a quick break, Nothing more than a second round pick though. Nothing more than a second round pick. Let's take a quick break and then we will get to the waiver wire. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca.

It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So quarterback is interesting this week because we do have a couple of guys rostered in fewer than five percent of leagues that we expect to start this week that that doesn't happen very often both andy dalton and jamis winston dalton was great good last week and gets to face the minnesota vikings prime opportunity for fantasy points. Jameis, we generally like more and has both

Chris Alave and Michael Thomas. You need a streamer in a 2QB league this week. Is Dalton or Winston? Ooh. That's a good question. I should have been anticipating it. I have Jameis Winston ranked

a little higher for week four in particular. The matchup for both is great. At Chicago for Jameis Winston versus Minnesota for Andy Dalton. Jameis Winston's against Tampa Bay. Sorry, sorry, sorry. I was looking at the wrong thing. Yeah, versus Tampa Bay. Slightly less good, but still not a terrible matchup. still lean james winston

just the weapons are so much better and adam thielen has actually looked pretty good in a like i i kind of wish i had drafted him more kind of way because he was the guy that like at the end of my drafts i kept looking at yeah and i was just like i have him ranked higher than he's going but i don't really want him and now it's like i kind of wish i did have him in more of my leagues he looks pretty useful but that speaks to the the situation for andy dalton right like right that adam feel well i do think um like you bring up feeling and i i just want to use this opportunity to say it because i talked to Mark Andrews this morning. And I was asking about all these different narratives.

Like I don't get a chance to name drop very often. All these different narratives that we talk about in fantasy football. You know, the things that are outside of the projections. The revenge game. The squeaky wheel game. The contract year guy. And he poo-pooed most of them unsurprisingly except for the revenge game i i talked about that when i mentioned adam feeling he said oh no that's real yeah guys get juiced

to play against their former team adam feeling is a top 20 wide receiver this week against the minnesota vikings uh i don't have him quite that high but he he's top 30-ish for me. Are you talking projections or rankings? Both. Both. Okay. I can understand lowering him in the rankings just because, ew, that's gross. But projections-wise, he's top 20 for me. I'm going to leave him there. Two other quarterbacks who aren't starting this week, we don't think. Jimmy Garoppolo does have a concussion, so I would expect it to be Brian Hoyer if they have to. But Aiden o'connell two percent rostered behind the oft injured jimmy garoppolo and then malik willis two percent rostered the seemingly clear number two behind

ryan tannehill who has looked completely dust um which of these guys would you rather roster if you need to if you wanted to roster one is just a speculative ad if it's just a speculative ad i think it has to be malik willis i i know that he's probably got a better a better chance of not being the number two at some point this season because they do have a second round pick behind him on the depth chart but i just i don't know man maybe brock purdy like open to floodgate and these late round, super old quarterbacks with no real physical tools are going to become viable fantasy starters. And I do think Devontae Adams has that kind of impact

where it's just like, as long as he's catching passes, you're going to have 35% of your passes go to a really good player. And Jacoby Myers is a really good player. And Jacoby Myers is really good too too and they're just not throwing to anyone except for those two guys and josh jacobs which is actually super fun for fantasy um but yeah malik willis could be a i mean honestly i was gonna say like a poor man's justin fields he could just be justin fields uh with the the you know maybe not quite as much rushing

ability but i i do think he has the potential to be a starting caliber fantasy option if he gets a real chance because he's got some pretty talented wide receivers himself if he gets that opportunity and you know obviously ryan tannahill looks really. How much of that is bad offensive line, DeAndre Hopkins not being 100%, maybe Traylon Burks not being 100%, and how much of that is Ryan Tannehill's just done? I think it's probably a combination of both. You mentioned Justin Fields, and he is in the notes in the Dynasty Fallers. So Greg asks, do we have any chance of fields improving?

And yes, we still do. He's still young enough. Things could go better. We have chances that the offense will improve and they'll just use him at what he's good at. Now, he did fall from my QB8 to QB11. I think that the one thing I would want to say to the Dynasty manager with Justin Fields is don't sell low today. I'm not considering selling

until after I see him against the Broncos. He gets that Broncos defense that Tua just hung 70 on. And not just that, Sam Howell hung 35 on them. Mike White hit Robbie Chosen for an easy 70 yard touchdown in this one robbie chosen now chris because it was chosen anderson for a second robbie chosen it says chosen on the back of his uniform and uh chris brooks i think that average never heard of the the dolphins number five running back until he got 50, had a 50-yard run against the Broncos.

I mean, I'm sure, do you follow the Sports But Make It Art Twitter account? I do not. It's a Twitter account where they take screenshots from sports games and compare them to art. Okay. And there's a phenomenal one of the Broncos defense with like seven guys sprawled out on the field. On A-chan's run.

Yeah, on A-chan running past them compared to Hieronymus Bosch's one of his paintings about hell. And it was that that seems about where the Broncos are right now. So, yeah, I just, yes, there is absolutely 100%. Justin Fields will be better for fantasy than he has been so far. I feel extremely confident that he will average more than 18.4 fantasy points per game,

that he will average more than 37 rushing yards per game. I think is what he's at right now. The numbers are just, they're dumb right now and it's really terrible he's they will be less dumb moving forward 5.9 fantasy points per game with his legs so far this season it was 10.8 last year he did not lose those abilities um so yes i i have hope i, though. The only thing I'd say for sure is just don't sell him this week. Let's talk about the running backs. We've got four guys under 10%. Again, kind of two different ranges here.

Rico Dowd will look good catching the ball last week. And Tony Pollard is on pace for 416 touches. Don't think that's probably going to last. So I want to make sure in my dynasty leagues as a as a handcuff situation dowell is rostered and maybe he starts getting a little bit more work and that turns into more of a low like an aj dylan type situation for him the other one at five percent that i think you could maybe start this week melvin gordon he's back maybe the new uh the new cockroach. We've got Gus Edwards in the concussion protocol. Justice Hill dealing with a foot injury.

It might be like 18 touches for Melvin Gordon this week. And look, we saw Kenyon Drake be fantasy relevant in this offense at the end of last season. Devontae Freeman? Yeah, I think Melvin Gordon's probably got a little more than those guys left. Certainly was starting at a higher floor than either of them. So, yeah, no, I think Melvin Gordon is probably a viable-ish starting running back this week of Justice Hill and especially Gus Edwards. Because I think Justice Hill probably has like a 10 to 12 touch ceiling, given his inability to stay healthy in the past the fact that he's

never really done it before i think melvin gordon will have a bigger role if justice hill is the only guy there um so yeah i think he's he might be a top 30 running back this week two guys who are two percent rostered i would you rather uh jaleel mclaughlin the number three running back for the broncos scored a touchdown hasn't really done much else my reason for suggesting him is that you've you've made mention of this before on this show sean payton is a my guys kind of guy mclaughlin is the the guy that he brought onto the team he's going to get frustrated with this broncos team and like he blamed on nathaniel Hackett in the offseason. He's going to be blaming on the guys who were there last year here pretty soon.

I think McLaughlin could have a bigger role even without an injury coming up soon. And then Trey Sermon was surprisingly the true backup to Zach Moss. Moss has an extensive injury history. If Jonathan Taylor gets traded, Trey Sermon might be an extensive injury history. If Jonathan Taylor gets traded, Trace Thurman might be an actual handcuff. Yeah, I think I would prioritize Jaleel McLaughlin

just because I think there are, like you said, I think there's a clearer path to him just getting some frustration touches. And look, he's the NCAA's all-time leading rusher and went undrafted and had a very good preseason and training camp was a guy who they didn't really nobody really expected to make the roster he just really impressed people in camp and earned that spot I don't necessarily know if that was the case for Trey Sermon who's now on his third NFL team I might might be fourth I don't know if he was on another camp at some point, but yeah, he needs a Zach Moss

injury and for Jonathan Taylor to not be there, whereas I think Jaleel McLaughlin could just have a role fairly soon, even without injuries. I'm hoping that Jonathan Taylor gets traded, but not just because of Zach Moss, but because I, I'm going to have an uneasy feeling every time Jonathan Taylor gets touched. If he's still on the Colts when he comes back, because I feel like he's handled this running back holdout thing better than

any running back ever has. He missed all of camp. He's missed the first month of the season and he hasn't missed a paycheck um yeah so i i would be i'm gonna be very nervous if jonathan taylor is is taking handoffs on the indianapolis colts that's fair on the other hand like zach moss is a decent player right it's really fun to think about what jonathan taylor could be doing and change stankin's offense like I I feel a little vindicated watching Zach Moss because before all this stuff with Jonathan

Taylor I had him as a top three running back for 2023 and he'd be that right oh yeah if not for you know the fact that he hates it there two wide receivers we talked about Josh Palmer he's rostered in eight percent of leagues he should be rostered in all leagues pretty much. And then Darius Slayton. Hey, I know things have gone terribly for the giants and I'm very skeptical that that pass offense is going to actually be good, but they've also played the Cowboys and the 49ers and two of their first

three games. And Slayton looks to be pretty clearly the number one wide receiver, number two target guy, I would guess, behind Darren Waller. Those types of guys aren't generally available on the waiver wire. I think I'd like to add Darius Slayton and put him on my bench and just see what happens. I think that's probably okay. I still think, like, Wanda Robinson made his debut last week.

I think he's going to continue to see his role increase, although probably not at the expense of Darius Slayton. But if things continue on this path, do they start to give some of the younger guys a look? And specifically Jalen Hyatt, who has had some flashes in the early going and in very limited opportunities, he would be the, the main threat for Darius Slayton,

but sure. I'm fine with, with throwing Darius Slayton on the end of your bench. He'll, he'll be a, you know, you need him to hit that big play, but he's capable of that.

If you need him to fill in, in a, in a bi-week or injury situation. Let's get to the tight ends. This is going to be really quick. I've just got a couple of things to say about a couple of guys. There's not really much question. Chris agrees with me.

I'll guarantee you. Trey McBride is 8% rostered. There's no reason that Trey McBride should be on a waiver wire in a dynasty league. And maybe he's not. Those are all dynasty leagues, and he's rostered in in a dynasty league. And maybe he's not. Maybe those are all dynasty leagues and he's rostered in every single dynasty league. But the Cardinals are throwing the ball to their tight ends at an extremely high rate.

Zach Ertz is doing nothing with the targets that he's receiving. One of the worst, absolutely awful efficiency. They are a team that's going nowhere. And so at some point, I think there's a very good chance that Trey McBride's going to get those targets this year. Even if he doesn't and it's next year, we often see rookie and second-year tight ends struggle.

This guy came into the NFL with a huge amount of upside, and Trey McBride still has that upside. So go roster Trey McBride still has that upside so yeah go roster Trey McBride if he's available in your league I'll throw out another guy who's basically in the same situation it's Luke Schoonmaker who I think is probably a less talented player than Trey McBride I didn't like him as a prospect as much but it's a similar situation he's three percent rostered and Jake Ferguson had a better game in week three, but he's been, like Zach Ertz, a lot of targets for nothing, basically.

He scored one touchdown, but he's been super inefficient. Wasn't good last season when Dalton Schultz was out. So I think Luke Schoonmaker's in a similar situation where we could be a few weeks away from him starting to see his role increase too. And then the other guy is Donald Parham. He had two targets last week. He scored two touchdowns. He now has three touchdowns on the season.

He's probably a top 12 tight end. IDC, IDC, IDC. Gerald Everett has fumbled a couple times, right? Yeah. I wonder if that's played a role in Parham. But yeah, I think it's extremely unlikely donald parham matters in in any format but right sure let's take a quick break and then we'll get to the dynasty risers and fallers before we get to the dynasty risers and fallers chris i've got a

couple of uh yo-yo running backs and i think when you we were talking about devon hn and james cook earlier in the show like your point about how easy it is to move throughout the running back rankings is also illustrated by these two guys um and i'm going to use my rankings but it's not just me the The consensus rankings, ADP, everything pretty much reflects this yo-yo. Ken Walker was my RB3 in March before the NFL draft. Fell to RB11 in May. He dealt with injuries in the preseason. He's looked awesome. Been used in the passing game, which I didn't really expect.

RB5 now. He's back inside the top five running backs. DeAndre Swift was my RB 3 in December. Got traded to the Eagles. Didn't really play week one. Had the injury concerns. He was my RB 28 just two weeks ago after week one. Three weeks ago, I guess it was now.

He's RB 13 now, and I could consider, if I wasn't for the injury concerns, I would rank him higher. I think he's probably a top five running back the rest of the year if he plays the whole rest of the season. Do you agree with the yo-yo movement on these two running backs? Are you buying or selling Walker or Swift more than the other? I'm a little confused by Ken Walker moving up based on the first three games,

just because I guess the concern was that Zach Charbonnet would come in and play a much more significant role than he has been. But I don't know, Walker, the usage looks exactly like what it did last year. And the player looks pretty much exactly like it did last year. He's you look at rush yards over expected per carry. He's slightly above average.

You look at the percentage of his carries that go for more than expected. Significant, significantly below average. Still that boomer bus guy. I guess my question is, is it he just scored four touchdowns in three games? And like, I don't really see the movement. I was concerned about two things. First off, like he's on pace for 51 targets.

I don't, I don't think he was that involved in the passing game last year. Second, like the two areas I, I thought Zach Charbonnet would be better as a pass catcher and he might still, but Walker's performed very well in that role so far this season. And I thought Charbonnet would be at a really good chance as the bigger back.

And man, did he truck somebody on the sideline last week. It was fun to watch. But Walker, it's not just the four touchdowns. It's the fact that Walker's received those carries in close proximity to the goal line and had success with them i think the odds of charbonnet taking either one of those roles completely away from walker without an injury are much lower than where i thought they were in august that's fair i i don't i haven't been inspired to move Ken Walker up or down for 2023 at least. Swift, the much more obvious guy who the problem with him, not just the injury concerned, but when we're talking dynasty perspective, he's not just a negative it's an unknown you know we don't know philadelphia wants

to bring him back or if they want to just keep churning through underpriced guys like miles sanders on a rookie contract deandre swift on a rookie contract that might just be what they want to do especially as you know they're gonna have to give davante smith a long-term extension after this season probably jalen hurts already got his team's going to get a lot more expensive. So I think there's a chance that DeAndre Swift isn't on the Eagles next year and potentially a better than 50, 50 chance, in which case I still don't know what to expect from him. Well, I think the other side of that is, even in his current role, and it's amazing that he somehow, every time he gets the ball handed to him, there's a six-yard hole.

He doesn't even have to have good vision. Just run the daylight. But even in that role, even with this insane efficiency, he's got one touchdown in the two games because jalen hurts steals all those and he probably won't get tackled as the one quite as often as he has so far like he probably should have two um and he's not getting a huge number of targets i and so and i i have a hard time what do you do with the fact that so many of Gainwell's touches came pretty much after the game was decided? It was a 14-point game.

They're going to have a lot of 14-point leads in the fourth quarter. This game was weird because from what I saw, it was basically DeAndre Swift played the whole first quarter, Kenneth Gainwell played the whole second quarter, DeAndre Swift played the whole third, and Kenneth Gainwell played the whole second quarter. DeAndre Swift played the whole third. And Kenneth Gainwell played the whole fourth. I don't know what to make of that because teams don't usually do stuff like that

in real games. You'll see stuff like that in the preseason. But is that just what this is? They're just going to alternate quarters? Is it just that they trust Gainwell to not mess up when they have a lead? And that's all. I genuinely don't know what to make of it.

I will say Swift seems like a good bet for 15 carries per game. I think it would be malpractice at this point if they didn't give him 15 carries per game. I think it's really unlikely that ever becomes 20 carries per game. And that's where the Gainwell thing doesn't't really bother me because you probably don't want to give Deandre Swift 20 touches a game, given his history and his inability to stay healthy. And so someone's got to touch the ball if it's not Deandre Swift. And personally,

like I'd rather it be AJ Brown, Dallas Goddard and Devante Smith, but that's probably not going to be the case when they're in situations like this. So I think DeAndre Swift moving up makes perfect sense. RB13 feels high to me, but again, I think it's so fluid outside of really the top. Would you rather have DeAndre? Outside of the top one or two like i i genuinely feel feel like

anyone from jameer gibbs to like jonathan taylor or travis etn you could make a case for and so i i feel like the whole rb position and dynasty is just in a really interesting place stevenson versus swift i think i would take swift yeah I think he's the better player I think he's in the better situation and Stevenson has the same contract concerns so yeah we do have a guest coming on here in just a couple of moments here Chris and I've got dynasty risers and fallers left I think the nice thing to do is save the risers for the guest and do the fallers you and I because we don't, we don't want to make somebody come on here and be negative.

So we've, we talked about Justin Fields already. He was QB eight. He is QB 11. Just one word answer. Six point per passing touchdown league dynasty league. Would you rather Justin Fields or CJ Stroud? Hmm.

Stroud. Stroud. Okay. Sam Howell. What? I was so excited about this washington offense and eric biennemi and sam howell and what the he was qb 18 he's fallen to qb 21 i don't understand how you can have terry mccorn and johan dotson on your team and 49 of your targets go to wide receivers it's like the second or third lowest rate in the league they're throwing the ball to cole turner and logan thomas and john bates and just throw the

ball to your best players i do think part of that is just like this is what the chiefs have done forever and obviously travis kelsey changes that but like i thought so they throw to their running backs a ton as well i think part of it's also just i like sam howell i think he's really fun i i think he's a uh you know i love his moxie right i'm not sure how good he is playing within the context of an offense like doing what is prescribed on any given play he's a he's a an experimenter he makes plays and sometimes that'll take him out of you know the first read second read and then it's just everything becomes a scramble drill so i think there's a an element of that to him but i i think he's been fine for fantasy for real life i, I think he's probably, you know,

I don't know if there's that much difference between him and Taylor Heineke, but for fantasy, I think he's going to remain pretty fun. Okay, a couple of running backs. Ramondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, averaging almost a combined four yards per year. Stevenson was RB9, and I feel like such a sucker because I was

the low guy on him for most of the offseason and then when Zeke was the only ad I thought well Zeke's not going to negatively impact him and I really he shouldn't have ever been in the top 10 anyways Najee he's been in a free fall he's down to RB23 now

do you have hope for either one of these guys are they both just volume based low end number two running backs right now I think the worm has proverbially turned on Najee Harris probably too much like I said it before Sunday when we got all these Jalen Warren's going to be a bigger part of the offense and he was but Najee Harris was still clearly the top running back there and I think that'll continue to be the case and there are probably going to be more scoring opportunities, and he's probably going to be a boring RB2 moving forward. And you can probably get him for a lot less than an RB2 typically costs right now.

So I do think there is probably a buying opportunity on Najee Harris. He's not going to help you win games. You're hoping he just doesn't help you lose games. And I think he can be a 13 to 14 points per game guy with basically the good weeks or when he scores a touchdown, the bad weeks or when he doesn't. I think he can be that. Okay. So I'm going to call an audible here because as I look backstage, it kind of, and I could be, it's a little blurry backstage. I could be mistaken, but it kind of looks like our guest might have some Patriots gear on. And so I'm going to bring on Pat O'Donnell.

Pat, a supporter of St. Jude. First off, thank you for that. Second, welcome to the show and third am i am i crazy for dropping remandre stevenson to rb14 and dynasty is he moving the right or the wrong direction unfortunately no you're not uh incorrect in it um the offense just can't seem to get any rhythm going most games and uh it's tough for him to get any footing going, especially with Zeke actually looking good and taking carries away from Zeke has probably looked better than of the two early in the season, which is amazing to say.

The concern that I had coming into the season was something that I did some research on, which was Bill O'Brien, the offensive coordinator. I thought that would be good for the offense because literally anything would be better than what they had last season at offensive coordinator and that's what we all thought here too that being said the one consistent thing for bill bryan as a as a play caller his teams did not throw the ball to the running backs

very often that was the case when deshaun watson was the quarterback which makes sense because he scrambles but it was also the case back when I think there was some Matt Schaub overlap and I think Brock Osweiler was the quarterback for one year like his teams were consistently like 15 to 18 percent target shares for running backs which is very low right now it's at 17 percent that was a big part of Ramondre Stevenson's case was just hey he's gonna catch 65 70 passes and well he might not that was the case the first time he was here. They like to use a lot of bubble screens, a lot of short routes from the receivers and not get the running backs as involved in the passing game.

That was the only difference then was obviously we had Brady back then, but covered a lot of that up. So yeah, no, that was the running backs had like 50 care 50 targets that season and that was danny woodhead was there he played 15 games that year i'm gonna i'm gonna stick with uh with with the patriots here because uh there's a guy in that offense who i think kind of fits that mold of the short area wide receiver targets i mean we thought it was going to be juju but apparently he doesn't have uh doesn't have much left in the tank but But Demario Douglas, a smaller wide receiver, kind of out of nowhere. He fits the Patriots' way.

It's been a slow start to the season, but we didn't expect him to be playing meaningful snaps this earlier in the year. Are you guys excited at all about what he could be? Very excited. We actually, around here, a lot of people thought him and Kayshaun Booty were going to be uh very exciting for rookies which is not common here uh he did unfortunately get benched after the fumble against miami um which drove a lot of questions around here but he's looked very explosive uh he fits

just what they like to do the short screens get him get them open, out in space, get them the ball, let them do something. And this is a team that just doesn't have a lot of speed. He's got speed. So that's something that could just get him on the field by default. Chris, I'll finish with you on the last two losers here, and then we'll get to the winners, and you and Pat can

break it down. But Jahan Dotson, I've been too high on him. Everybody told me I was too high on him at wide receiver 18 i think i've dropped him to where everybody else had him at wide receiver 24 i don't know how much to make of these first three games when none of the wide receivers are really getting that many targets but it's been very bad and then david nojoku what a disastrous start to the season he's down to tight end 16 for me. Any hope in bounce backs from either one of these guys? Yeah, Dotson, I've done some research.

And one thing that I overlooked on him coming into the season, and I just kind of let the hype take me along with it. You know, that happens sometimes where it's just like, you don't really have a strong opinion on a player, but everybody else likes him. So you're like, yeah, sure. I like him. And John Dotson was 61st out of 88 wide receivers

who ran at least 300 routes last season in targets per route run. He was about 17% last season, I think, or maybe 16%. He's right around the same rate this season. And that's one of those stats that tends to stabilize pretty quickly tends to tends to be owned by a player tends to like routes can increase or decrease but the amount of the the rate at which they get targets per route run tends to stay pretty steady and that's a concern right now because john dawson just doesn't look like a guy who demands targets he he's pretty good when he does get those targets, but for whatever reason, he's not earning them. And look, Terry McLaurin has the same number

of targets through three games. So it's not just a Jahan Dotson issue. Hopefully that offense can be a little better, but it might also be a combination of a Jahan Dotson issue and a Sam Howell issue. So yeah, I think Jahan Dotson as a, as a low end or a wide receiver to still allows for him being young and talented and having pedigree, but I think it's the appropriate place for him to be. Okay. Let's get to the winner.

CJ Stroud was QB 12 up to QB 10. I have been so impressed. So the way, the way he's played now, some of it's volume. He's just thrown the ball a lot, but he has looked NFL ready. There were real concerns about, can he handle pressure because he didn't ever see any pressure in college looked pretty good under pressure last week. This will be a massive test for him in week four against the Pittsburgh Steelers. We know what kind of pressure those guys get off the edge. If he performs this week against the Steelers, I think we need to have a real

conversation about why everybody's so much higher on Trevor Lawrence than CJ Stroud. And then Brock Purdy, QB 21. And Pat, I want to talk to you about Brock Purdy as a guy who has Mac Jones quarterbacking his team, because I kind of just view Purdy in that same Mac Jones range. Like might be fine as a number two quarterback on your fantasy roster, not ever going to be a surefire starter, but Purdy throws two touchdowns

almost every other game and hasn't lost yet. And so he's getting a lot more steam than Mac Jones. Do you see much of a difference there? The only real difference is the touchdowns. He's good for two, almost every single game. He's taken advantage of the weapons he has in San Francisco. Debo and I,

you could both been great. McCaffrey speaks for himself. He just, he's got a very good command on the field, which is keeping them in there. And he's, he's looked good almost every single week. He's turning into a set it and forget it high quarterback too, maybe low end one most weeks.

Are you buying into Purdy anymore, Chris? I know you're in on Stroud. I think he's a solid QB too if you need one. I would feel pretty bad if he was my starter in any league in a Q in a one QB league, but like for a week, he's probably fine. The problem it's, it's mostly just comes down to a volume issue. They're, they're just going to blow out a lot of teams. They don't want to throw the ball when they don't have to. And you know, that's going to lead to a lot of 21 attempt games for Brock Hardy.

But I think in the right situations, I'm fine streaming him for sure. Only one big running back riser, Jerome Ford from RB 47 to RB 33. But I'm really kind of still a little bit skeptical. I am afraid that Kareem Hunt's going to get more work than he should, and maybe he will even deserve it in the passing game. Ford's mostly just been touchdowns and one long run. How are you feeling about Ford, Chris? And is that somebody that you'd feel comfortable starting pet?

He's RB 20, 24. He rb 20 for me for week four and i don't think there's going to be a lot of movement one way or the other as long as he stays healthy i think he's just going to be a boring low end rb2 i thought the the passing game usage the last couple of weeks has been pretty interesting seven targets it's more than i would have expected for him he had the he like mossed someone on that touchdown right am i remembering that correctly that that was shocking um i didn't know he was allowed to do that so that that was interesting this offense isn't going to be the same offense it's been though this is not a situation like in years past where they just plugged Dearness Johnson in and ran the same offense that they've had a lot of offensive line issues. They've changed the way their formations run to make Deshaun Watson more comfortable.

And it's not going to be Jerome Ford getting 18 carries per game. I think it's going to be a lot more like what we saw in week three, where he's getting 10 to 12, maybe 13 carries. And you're hoping that he's more involved in the passing game like he has been so far for him to be fantasy relevant. But it's not just strictly a volume-based play like you might have assumed with this offense. All right, let's talk about some wide receivers. A couple of young guys. I've been skeptical on George Pickens. It took two weeks. I'm not skeptical anymore. I don't think you can put this cat back in the bag. They are using him in a better way.

The target share has gone up. He's actually running slants. And when they did, the thing was, I genuinely didn't know for sure if the Steelers just thought the only thing that George Pickens could do was run down the sideline. Or run a hitch. or run a post. And so seeing what he can do after the catch, seeing him use a little bit more in these short area targets, he's up to wide receiver 21. Pat, what have you thought of Pickens the last couple of weeks? He's looked every bit of what they drafted him for that that team just finds receivers um he was regarded as very athletic coming out of the draft uh very limited in in his route tree and and all those aspects he's done a very good job he's got the chemistry with with kenny pickett and it seems like whenever

there's any kind of trouble he's the guy getting targeted which leads to a lot of broken plays and always a chance to score chris do you think i mean pickett's pickens is young enough that i say i don't think you can put the cat back in the bag but deontay johnson comes back in five weeks do we see pickens you think pickens goes back to the same role i would say it's probably not the exact same role but like the one thing i would point out is week two, he had this massive target share. Week three, it goes back down to about 22%. That's still really good.

That's better than what I would have expected coming into the season, but it's not given the fact that it's a pretty bad offense. And I still think a pretty bad quarterback, a 22% target share would probably not be enough to make me excited, even with what i think is a pretty good talent at wide receivers so i'm still i'm still in a sell slash hold mode with george pickens if if someone values him as a top 20 wide receiver i'd move him um and that's true and you know both for if you're contending and if you're rebuilding.

I think that's the way I'd view it. I do think that age-wise, the offense, if the Steelers are bad this year, and they probably won't be, but if they are, it's probably not Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett for George Pickens. So the fact that he has shown these skills that I had not seen in the NFL yet makes me more excited in the long term. I do for the first time, I think, have Pickens ranked ahead of Jahan Dotson. It hurts a little bit to say that. I'm sad about it, but it's true. Tank Dell was wide receiver 50, and I think that was quite a bit higher than people had him in the offseason. He's up to wide receiver 35 now. It's so much fun to see these smaller guys getting a chance and then thriving in the NFL.

And I love the fact that he is dominating those targets between 5 and 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, but then also has shown us some stuff downfield. What have you thought of this Texans pass offense, Pat? I mean, Bill O'Brien might wish that he could go back to Houston. It's looked a lot better than most people are going to give credit for in the preseason. Writing should have been on the wall with Dell when Stroud pushed the Texans

to draft him. He's been excited. We do love that narrative. Yes. Yeah. He's been very exciting. The offenses look good as a whole. And again, because they're going to be chasing points quite a bit, it's nothing but volume for that passing game. And he's filling the role they need. Chris, is wide receiver 35 too high for Tankdale?

And how high, like for a guy his size, but now that he's shown he can do it, does it even matter anymore? How high could Tankdale go? I think we need to rethink how we think about size you know like the the i think it was the class everybody was super uh davante smith was 2020 right that was like a historically small class like not just davante smith waddle even jamar chase was only like 205 pounds like he wasn't alpha wide receiver size historically but the NFL's changing you know teams are teams are playing smaller defenses they're not you know very few teams run three linebackers and four defensive linemen on the field you can get away

with being a smaller wide receiver now Tank Dell is kind of on the extreme end of that you know he's like T.Y. Hilton is probably the best small wide receiver before Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddell of the past like decade. And he probably had 15 pounds on Jalen or on Tank Dell. So like that's a little concerning, but yeah, he showed the ability to make plays. He was a big playmaker in training camp

and in the preseason. Basically, ever since he's gotten on the field for the for the texans he's been arguably their best playmaker yeah i i think wide receiver 35 makes perfect sense for him i'd be looking to buy even one more dynasty riser for the week sam laporta the big we've got another tight end we've got we've got six of them now maybe seven listen i think uh first tight end ever with five catches in his first three nfl games record for catches most catches in the first three games of a career for a tight end second most yards so he is up to tight end eight for me and the way this positioner is going like if he keeps this up and is a top 10

tight end this year he'll be in the top three because that's just the nature of the tight end position pat you've seen a few few tight ends there in new england um over the years let's just come changing directions because your your guy hunter henry completely completely let us down this week we nobody wanted to start him for the first two weeks of the season. Do you think Hunter Henry is going to be a big part of the offense, or is that just a complete flub? Looking at the receiving core, he kind of has to be. Mack does like the tight ends.

They didn't translate to a lot of touchdowns last year, but he does target them on a high rate. Henry's looked good gizekis looked serviceable and in certain situations um i don't think that anything's going to change with hunter henry going forward they need him to be a big part of the offense chris how many weeks does sam laporta have to be better than kyle pitts before sam laporta is ranked ahead of Kyle Pitts and dynasty. I think we can have that conversation already.

I just, the Atlanta Falcons offense, even when they're throwing the ball, Desmond Ritter's a disaster. He like, I'm of two minds. Cause people are like, well, that's why Arthur Smith doesn't want to throw the ball.

But it's like, yeah, but they saw this guy and they went into the off season and decided they didn't need an upgrade. So this is the offense they want to run. They're throwing to their tight ends more than any team in the NFL. I believe on a target rate, target share, and raw targets per game. Falcons are throwing to their tight ends more than any team in the NFL.

It's just Johnny Smith's getting 45% of them. I think it's dumb. It's infuriating's getting 45% of them. I think it's dumb. It's infuriating. It makes me angry every time I think about it. And I try not to think about Atlanta's offense anymore because it's bad for my mental health. But yeah, I think we can absolutely have a conversation about Sam Laporta versus Kyle

Pitts because Pitts is still in Atlanta for at least another year after this, unless they decide to trade him. They've got a fifth year option. They can extend him. Why they would do that with how they use him. I don't know, but nothing makes sense with how they run their team. So I can't say that they won't.

Sam Laporta. I liked him a lot as a prospect. He was my favorite of the rookie tight ends coming into the season. I, I love the situation. I think that the talent is really good it's not kyle pitts but kyle pitts hasn't been able to he should have had like an 85 year touchdown this week see this i can't think about the i will say i don't i don't like if you want some hope for kyle pitts i i

don't think he's fully healthy yet i watching him run. And yet he's running past defensive backs already. He is, but he's not running quite like he used to. We've run a little bit long. Pat, I want to thank you again for your support of Fantasy Football today, for your support of St. Jude. It's been a pleasure talking to you, Chris. Thanks for being here today. Everyone

who listened and watched, thank you. And we will talk to you next Tuesday.