Fantasy Football Today - NFC North and South Team Needs; Brady in Warm Weather? (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 10, 2020

Tua Tagovailoa has been medically cleared. Which team will take him in the NFL Draft (3:05)? We run through that news item and a few others before talking about Tom Brady again (6:15)! What impact could warmer weather have on his Fantasy production? ... NFC North teams needs: GB (9:50), DET (14:00), CHI (18:15), MIN (23:00). We know GB needs WR help, but what scenario could actually hurt Davante Adams? Is Kenny Golladay safe as a target hog? Would bringing in Andy Dalton make Allen Robinson significantly better? And does MIN need anything on offense? ... NFC South team needs: ATL (27:45), CAR (32:00), NO (36:05), TB (41:30). Are Devonta Freeman's days in ATL numbered? Is Cam Newton really a big QB upgrade for CAR? What kind of target share do we expect for Michael Thomas? Is this the year Ronald Jones finally gets to shine? ... Email us at [e-mail] and tweet us with #AskFFT 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox, Bullhorn and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our March Madness Bracket Challenge: http://2020podcast.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/d7feed30238637cc2387331ab3061dc1fb5219555f0e9a8b?ttag=BPM20_cpy_invite_new Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Team needs for the NFC North and the NFC South.

The Packers need a number two wide receiver. The Bears need a quarterback. The Lions need a quarterback. Are they going to take Tua? He has been medically cleared. Welcome to the show. It is Fantasy Football today on Tuesday, March 10th. Adam Azer with Jamie Isenberg and Heath Cummings.

Jamie, where have you been? Well, I was at the Combine. You forgot about that. I remember that. I came back and we talked about the Combine. And then what? Then where have I been? Avoiding you.

That's only been like a week and a half, right? Since I spoke to you guys about the Combine. Eight days. I wasn't there. I was back. I did the show last Monday. Yeah. What do you mean?

And then I took some time off, like you do typically. Yeah. You were on once a week for like two months. I didn't talk to you for like a month because you were gone somewhere. And then you had one show with me and you were like, I need a break. So JB's back. Heath's here. Interesting Twitter polls that Heath and I have posted in the last day. Isn't that interesting what happens there, Heath? I don't know what you're talking about so you posted a twitter poll which quarterback do you like better and you just posted statistics i posted a twitter poll with their names

and the results were flipped right that was the poll uh tyrod taylor or derrick carr so the numbers people wanted Tyrod. The names, people wanted Carr. Yep. I don't think there's anything surprising about that at all. Well, what do you take away from that? What's the lesson there? Yours has your followers follow you for a reason, Adam.

No. They have the same bad opinions that you do. So fantasy-wise, you'd rather have tyrod well actually i don't know what the we didn't specify in the question of who would you rather if it was fantasy or real life uh fantasy i guess yeah i'd rather have tyrod yeah and real life you'd rather have car i'd rather have tyrod in real life you'd rather have Carr. I'd rather have Tyrod in real life as well. Really? Yeah. He thinks he's good.

Well, I'm not saying... I just think Carr's definitively bad. You can just look at their records and it's pretty easy to see. Tyrod Taylor has a winning record. Derek Carr's like 50 games under.500. I wonder if they played the same amount of games. Started the same amount of games. If Tyrod's record would reflect that. And I don't really believe

in the whole quarterback wins thing anyway. I was just using that because I figured that Adam did. I think what happened was I said Tyrod is the second best quarterback in the AFC West. And Adam took great offense to that. Yeah, I said behind Derek Carr, I couldn't believe he was downgrading Mahomes so much. The Chargers are going to take a quarterback

though. So Tyrod's starting days will probably be numbered unless they take Tua, and he's not ready to go. Speaking of Tua, he has been cleared for all football activity. You're doing a mock draft right now, guys. Where are you projecting Tua Tagovailoa to go? An NFL mock draft? Yeah.

He's not making it past five. Yeah, but I know that. But you could take him at three. I'm putting him at two. I don't think he will. No, the Redskins. Well, if I were running things, the Red But you could take him at three. I'm putting him at two. I don't think he will. No, the Redskins. Well, if I were running things, the Redskins would take him at two. I think there will probably be a trade and someone else will get him at two.

They should just take a rookie quarterback every year so they can just always be bad. You know, the year that they took two rookie quarterbacks worked out well for them because they had a great rookie season from RG3 and then Kirk Cousins took them to the playoffs. So where would you mock Tua? Without trades, I would mock him five.

With trades, I would mock him two. Dolphins. Dolphins are five. The Lions are three. I think you're going to see a lot of maybe pushback on Tua and they seem to be liking Jordan Love a lot. Loving Jordan Love a lot. Interesting.

How would Jordan Love a lot, loving Jordan Love a lot. Interesting. All right. How would Jordan Love have been if he played with LSU or Alabama? Significantly better, better than the top two prospects, right where he is. What do you think? Second, behind Burrow, ahead of Tua. Behind Burrow, ahead of Tua. What do you think, Adam? Well, maybe ahead of Tua, but that's because of the injury.

I mean, I think Tua went into the year as the best prospect, for sure. I'm pretty sure mock drafts consistently had him number one overall. Not necessarily before the injury, but before Joe Burrow started going crazy. The third year in a row that the number one overall pick is not going to be one of the top prospects going into the season. The thing to know about Joe Burrow and all the other quarterbacks is Joe

Burrow played behind a team that was awarded as, named as the best offensive line, LSU's offensive line, the best offensive line in the nation. That certainly helps. I have no idea what Utah State's... One of the best receiving cores in the nation. So that certainly helps. I have no idea what Utah State's... One of the best receiving cores in the nation. Oh, yeah.

Terrific. I have no idea what Utah State's offensive line was like. So I can't really answer that question. They retooled almost everything. I don't know offensive line, but they retooled a lot of things. New coach, new receiver. A lot changed. But it's obviously all speculative.

Yeah. I don't know how to answer that question, but I doubt he would have been as good as Burrow was this year. And I think as a prospect, I mean, I'm still pretty obsessed with Tua, interested to see where he goes. I would say no later than five, and probably you're right. The team that we'll end up picking two will probably take him. ESPN reporting that the Patriots are expected to offer Tom Brady

a contract of $25 million per year. We will read an email about Tom Brady in a moment. Marshall Yonda retiring for the Ravens offensive guard. Is that a big deal for you guys? Not huge in terms of significant downgrades to their skill players, but it's thanks for their team. And the Hall of Fame game is Pittsburgh-Dallas. I look forward to watching the first drive of that. Could be Ben?

Probably not. Could be Dak? Probably not. Probably not. You ready for the email of the day? Sure. Heath, are you ready? Yeah, absolutely.

Okay, great. You guys sound very excited this is from arthur to the four proven fantasy sports geniuses that overlooked a minor detail and i have no idea listening to a different pocket i have no idea which four he's referring to uh why is it's obviously not me i've been here forever no it's been dave you and me who's you four of us we're talking about you being jamie or you being adam not jamie jamie's not part you the four of us that were on the most recent podcast okay okay uh why why is no one brought up that tom brady moving out of the new england takes him out of the garbage new england

weather with los angeles san francisco vegas and tampa Bay as possible landing spots, Brady will flourish in good weather. Look at his QB rating in less than 40-degree temperature games versus warm weather games. Can you imagine what 80-plus degree weather and 99.99% Tampa Bay humidity would do for his aging body parts? He will be a snowbird and revitalize his fantasy career. Old people do like it better in the sun, in the warmth. I mean, look, he's played in that his entire career.

Maybe that helps him a little bit. I would imagine if he went from New England to Tampa Bay, I'd be more excited about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin than the sun. Same thing with Keenan Allen and potentially Hunter Henry in Los Angeles. So I don't think you guys have overlooked that without knowing what you said. No, but I think it's an interesting point. I'm actually going through the numbers right now because we know that Tom Brady in December

is usually not a very good fantasy quarterback. But I don't know if that's a byproduct of him playing in the cold. I'm sure it's a factor, but they tend to just, you know, home and on the road, they sort of operate differently. If you look at the last four games of each... Throw out last year, please. Why? Because they had no weapons and they were a different offense.

All right, but fine, fine. Four years before that. 2015 to 2018. The last four games of each season. So, 16 total games. How many times did Tom Brady score more than 22 fantasy points in six point for passing touchdown leagues?

In 16 games. Maybe five. Bingo. Five out of 16. How many times more than 20? Seven out of 16. And times more than 27 out of 16 and where were those games yeah I forgot to I just did this I this is like most of them are cold weather games

but there's definitely a probably a few at Miami's in there I'm gonna guess the the Miami miracle was in December not mistaken I think it was the yeah I feel like my level of excitement for this discussion was perfectly on point. No, but I'm guessing his worst month is December. So I don't think that's completely...

Well, I mean, you're also looking at 2015 to 2018 when you're still talking about a guy that was, what, 37? So his body's going to be tired. His arm's going to be tired. He's not going to have as many you know big play opportunities um you know that's kind of why the bye week has been so important to him in the playoffs to them in the playoffs you know it gives him a week of rest okay let's do passer rating by month in his career 97.3 in september 100.4 in october 98.1

in november 92.3 in December. This is the greatest email that's ever been read. Thank you, Arthur. And we go to the team needs. Right into it. The NFC North. Alright, Jamie, you've got Green Bay. I'm very interested to see the way Jamie attacks this homework assignment of team

needs. Well, he's been listening to us do it. I mean, I'm sure he's listened to all those podcasts and knows exactly the format that we've used. Every show. Well, he's been listening to us do it. I mean, I'm sure he's listened to all those podcasts and knows exactly the format that we've used. Every show. Green Bay, they're going to send Aaron Rodgers to a warm weather climate because he can't play in the cold in the summer. He's not that old yet. He's 35. I mean, he's not young.

They need a tight end. They need a number two wide receiver and they may need some offensive line help if Belaga leaves as a free agent. They're right tackle. That was really good. Good job. All right, right great let's move on to our next team no so my big question for green bay is when they bring in more weapons i've i know i've asked you this very recently but let's talk about it again when they bring in more weapons how are you going to feel about davante adams his target share in just the games he's played, obviously,

last two seasons has been 28.5% and 29.4%, which is not outrageous for a number one wide receiver. But nobody on the team in 2019 had more than 68 targets other than Devontae Adams. Aaron Jones was second in targets. So when they bring in more weapons, how are you going to feel about Adams? It depends what they do. If they bring in Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry, I don't think Henry's leaving the Chargers, but Hooper might leave the Falcons. If they bring in Austin Hooper

and sign a wide receiver, then that's bad for Devontae Adams. Not to the point of dropping him from late round one, early round two to round four, but it hurts. If they only draft a wide receiver and don't sign anybody in free agency, then I'm fine with Adams still being the number two wide receiver. Yeah, I think the way I said it, because we talked about this last week, I think it's almost exactly the way that I said it. If it was Austin Hooper and Robbie Anderson, then I'm pretty worried about Devontae Adams being a top three or four receiver, top five receiver.

Or if it's Austin Hooper and a first round receiver, I might be, but anything less than that, I don't really care. They still threw 500 passes to a bunch of other schmucks last year. They just didn't throw very many of them to one. Wow, that was quite a word. I think, is there, can we

get a revival of Aaron Rodgers? Yeah. What do you think? Yeah. I mean, to the level of being the number one quarterback or number two, probably not, but borderline top five, absolutely. I think the equation we were using for Devontae Adams is the

exact opposite for Aaron Rodgers. If he goes and gets Robbiebie anderson and austin hooper then yeah we're probably talking about him as a top three guy you think so you still think he can be that guy because the just looking at the numbers the last like three or four years completion percentage yards per attempt all that stuff it he looks like a guy in decline he's definitely in decline i mean there's no way around that but what's the level of decline you know is it it's not for so what we saw last year where it's you know borderline starter in fantasy or is it continuing to get worse than that you know i mean i i think though what they do this offseason is going to be telling they have to they have to clearly

add somebody else you know i mean ideally like if you're if you looking at it, I know we've talked a lot of dynasty, you'd like to see Jay Sternberger get an opportunity as opposed to, you know, Austin Hooper is still young and this would be a great fit for him. But, you know, Sternberger can be somebody that has potential. Is it like Heath said, is it Robbie Anderson? Is it, you know, Amari Cooper

may get free. Who knows where he ends up if the Cowboys can't keep him. That'd be an amazing situation for Aaron Rodgers to have Devante Adams and Amari cooper uh but they could also just say you know what they they had their free agent moment last year i know it's a different regime but you know you go back to the um ted thompson days when they didn't spend any money and then last year you know um i believe this is a jam i forget his name. I always butcher his name. Excuse me. You know, they signed the two guys on defense and spent a lot of money on the pass rush. Yeah.

You know, so do they continue that spending for a team that's clearly built to win right now after what they showed last year in Matt LaFleur's first season? All right, let's go to Detroit. 3-12-1, last place in the NFC North. They were 16th in rush attempts per game after being 18th in 2018, so they'll try to run the ball. They were 17th in pass attempts per game.

Balanced offense for the Lions. Heath, what do the Lions need? Health. It's weird because they were so terrible last year, but Matthew Stafford missed half the year. Kerryon Johnson missed half the year. Marvin Jones missed three games. TJ hawkinson missed four games like i don't think they need their offensive line didn't play bad last year they could use a little bit of help there but

they've got carry on johnson and i would presume that bo scarborough is going to back him up and ty johnson's going to do some work in the passing game maybe they go get a pass catching running back but they didn't really seem to want to do that once they had Hawkinson, Jones, Amendola, and Galladay all healthy. They just threw the wide receivers and tight ends more than they had back when they had Theo Riddick. They just need all those guys to stay healthy.

I don't want them to go add another offensive weapon. There's some talk that they may get a running back. It could be a pass-catcher. I don't think it's a day-one pick, but it's clearly not a day one pick. Not taking a guy third. But there is some stuff you read out of Detroit that mostly I think it's because of carry on not staying healthy. They don't trust you can.

I don't know if it's necessarily a let's go get a complimentary piece. It could be let's go get a 1A or maybe even a 1 depending on how the draft falls. This running back class is phenomenal. It's absolutely phenomenal. I know we've talked about John Taylor, DeAndre Swift, the guys at the top. But there are people that really like Kelly, the kid out of UCLA. There's going to be some P. Ryan from Florida. What's your kid from Miami?

Dallas. Running back, DJ your kid from Miami? Dallas. Running back, DJ Dallas? Yeah, DJ Dallas. I mean, you know, late round player type of guys that could be impactful if given the Scarborough role or, you know, something like that for Detroit. So that's probably the one thing that you may see from a skill position standpoint. I think they're probably going to look to eventually replace Marvin Jones. It may not be with a high draft pick, but somebody that could come in and be an eventual successor there if they don't decide to make him part of their long-term plans. So what hypothetical addition for the Lions would change someone's fantasy value the most?

Running back or receiver, I guess. Yeah, I think it's a running back taking the first three rounds. Okay. Like, I don't... Maybe they will, but it's hard to see a receiver... Like, they just resigned Amendola

and Kenny Galladay is a true number one. Like, nobody's going to come in and affect him. And I think Marvin Jones is a really good number two. Like, I don't think... But I think he's got one year left on his deal so that that could be a situation where they're looking to you know eventually replace him yeah matthew stafford was a top five quarterback while he was healthy he was on pace for 5 000 yards he the second most passing yards in the nfl while he was healthy the first nine weeks of the season, that was eight games for him. 2,499

yards, 19 touchdowns, five interceptions. He went crazy against the Vikings, Giants, and Raiders. And he was just merely good to very good in the first five games of the season. And then he just had this three-game stretch where he went berserk. But,

you know, could something... They'd have to probably make a significant investment at wide receiver for you to really move Stafford up, right? He's going to be one of those guys that you just... Nobody's going to want to draft him

as a starter. He'll be in the conversation of, I missed on XYZ. He's there. I'll take him with... Him know, like him and Baker, I think is a good pairing him and cam. If cam's healthy him and maybe burrow, if you know, you, you, you like that set up as the rookie quarterback. Um, you know, those are the type of guys you want to put with Stafford, or even if you take Kyler or Josh Allen and you're not sold on them being your guy for 16 weeks, this is a great pairing as well. They can also take quarterback

though. I wouldn't, I wouldn't rule that out just given the fact that he is 32. I think he's 32. But also the back injury. You've got to wonder if they feel comfortable with him past the season. We've heard the rumors all offseason about it. Let's go to the Bears. They need a lot. They went

8-8. They were third place in the NFC South with the 6th worst rushing offense in the NFL. 7th worst passing offense in the NFL. So they made a lot of changes to their staff. They brought in Bill Lazor as their offensive coordinator, who is

most recently the Bengals offensive coordinator in 2018, a little bit of 2017. So Jamie, what do the Bears need? I mean, the obvious thing would be a quarterback upgrade for fantasy. I don't think they're going to do that based on the things

that they've said, but you mentioned Bill Lazor. You connect the dots. It's a great landing spot for Andy Dalton to sort of be this year's Ryan Tannehill. Go in behind a struggling starter and maybe get an opportunity to either beat him out in training camp or if something happens during the season where he struggles again in terms of Trubisky, then maybe Dalton steps in and becomes a starter there. They're going to be probably in

the Marcus Mariota conversation as well. You know, I don't think they're going to spend any sort of draft pick on a quarterback, but I do think there'll be, you know, in some talks for the second tier free agents or eventual free agents in in Dalton's case, at the quarterback position. So I think otherwise you look at number three receiver after moving on from Taylor Gabriel, tight end with Trey Burton not staying healthy. They're also in the Austin Hooper conversation, and they definitely need some offensive line help.

I don't think that they do anything with their backfield significantly. I think they're going to give Montgomery another chance and Terry Cohen another chance to be the top two guys. I think that's what they should do. But quarterback is going to be the most interesting scenario for them in free agency and what they do to back up Trubisky. So let's say they get Andy Dalton. That's fun.

How much would you like Alan Robinson? He was a top 12 wide receiver last year. He played all 16 games, 98 catches, 1,147 yards, seven touchdowns. I would hope for more for a guy getting 154 targets, but okay. He still was 11th in non-PPR, 8th in PPR. Andy Dalton's their quarterback. You rank Alan Robinson where? Same?

Yeah, I think you rank him the same. I don't think they sign Andy Dalton, and we know in August that Andy Dalton's starting week one. But when you're drafting Labor Day weekend, you'll have an idea who the starter is at that point. I think you kind of look at... I mean, Allen Robinson has unfortunately played with a lot of bad

quarterbacks. He's had the Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky starting you know, starting duo. He's had some, you know, other backups in Jacksonville at times. He's had, you know, just not consistent quarterback plays. Andy Dalton, a significant upgrade over those guys? No, but he's an upgrade. I think he is over Trubisky. I mean, again, I know one of the last shows I was on,

we were talking about, you know, would Joe Burrow all of a sudden make A.J. Green a better fantasy option? No, because I don't think that Joe Burrow, or Andy Dalton to Joe Burrow, like Andy Dalton's not the problem. So Andy Dalton, I think, gives Robinson maybe a slight boost.

But, you know, how many of those 150? What did you say, 154? Yes. So the catchable passes probably go up a little bit. Robinson was much better without Taylor Gabriel on the field, and Gabriel will not be on the team next year. And Anthony Miller was great when Gabriel went down.

Yeah, he played eight games with, eight games without. Without Gabriel, Robinson had 12 more catches. He had more than 200 more yards and five more touchdowns. I think, Heath, you seem to be the high guy on Al Robinson, as I recall. You have him 11th. Jamie has him 16th. Dave has him 16th.

No. Care to comment? Anything? I think I've got him projected pretty close to what he did last year. And we've seen him basically have two of those seasons now. And then a lot of injuries and a couple up and downs with quarterback play. I think it's hard to imagine that his quarterback plays worse this year. Like even if it's Trubisky for 16 games, we've seen Trubisky play three years.

And that was by far the worst that he's played as a quarterback. I would expect Trubisky. Well, he's rookie. Well, it's not statistically. quarterback. I would expect to risk. He's got his rookie resource. Well, it's not statistically. Um, they didn't trust him. Right.

Um, I don't think they trust him in the second half last year. Uh, so I don't, I think it's going to be better one way or another for Alan Robinson quarterback play wise. And like you said, Gabriel's gone. If they go add a significant,

significant pass catcher, like I wonder if they try to go get somebody to actually play tight end. They didn't even throw the ball. They're tight ends last year they're You know heavily in the in the Hooper conversation you know so that'd be I Would hate that for Hooper yeah well I'd hate it for Robinson too would you guys right

Now take carry on Johnson or to David Montgomery Carry on I think I have them back to back yeah I'm very close to I'd probably take carry-on, but it's a coin flip. Last team in the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings. They went 10-6.

They were the sixth-best rushing team in the NFL. They threw the third-fewest passes per game. And that's actually in 2018. They had the sixth-most pass attempts per game. So they went from sixth most to third fewest. 10-6 record and a good season. Not a great season, but a solid season for the Vikings. Heath, what do they need in the offseason?

Well, for fantasy purposes, maybe just like Mike Zimmer to leave. But it's tough for Diggs and Thielen. They certainly don't need more offensive weapons. Their line was very good. I think Irv Smith behind Kyle Rudolph has an opportunity once Rudolph's not there. I think if something happens to Delvin Cook, they've got Alexander Madison. They've got Thielen and Diggs. They've got the offense.

Cousins is better than we give them credit for almost every year. It's almost like they just need to play a little bit faster, but that's not what Zimmer wants to do either. So they are what they are. I don't know that they really have needs offensively. And their defense is really good. See, their defense, I think they need cornerback help. It's pretty obvious what's going on there.

I think it's a little disappointing that their defense took a step back and they still had the third fewest pass attempts. They're just not going to get away from the run. But, yeah, they seem like... Why would you, though? I mean, after what Dalvin Cook did. I'm not saying they should.

I'm just saying, you know, it's not like they had a suffocating defense last year, and yet they still were so committed to the run. So it's hard. I don't know what's going to change i think i think you know looking at like i just was looking at russell wilson stats today and where he went in terms of past attempts from 2008 2018 to 19 and it's a huge increase and i think we were really really worried that he wasn't going to throw much and he threw plenty in 2019. So I guess my broader

point is like, look at the Vikings. They went from six most pass attempts in 2018 to third fewest in 2019. I don't think they're going to be quite as run heavy next year or as I don't think they will be either. And like Russell Wilson threw

significantly more last year and still like 85% of league average. Yeah, but we know that he's going to be one of the most efficient quarterbacks. Right. I'm just saying there was still a huge increase. From year to year, I do want to do a little bit of research on that when I get the chance and see how many teams consistently finish in the bottom of pass attempts. There was a pretty big difference

between the Seahawks' defense from 2018 to 2019. Actually, I don't know if it was that big of a difference. It was worse, I could tell you, because I looked that up this morning. Anyway, what else is there to say about the Vikings? I mean, they do seem like a team that could be fairly fluid offensively one year, like fairly similar, rather, one year to the next, as Seth was saying. I would expect that they're going to stick with the same game plan because it worked.

It's kind of like Tennessee. You could see a team making a big change, but I don't think that the Vikings or Titans are teams I'd look for making big changes because it just worked. Titans could be just based on personnel. Well, I don't think they're going to go to a pass-heavy offense.

If they lose Henry, they might. I guess it's... I think it's unlikely with Rabel and the same offensive coordinator, but maybe. Yeah, I mean, just maybe. There's not a lot of teams that have guys that are that dominant.

Right. You're right, Heath. The Seahawks went from 11th in scoring defense to 22nd from 2018 to 2019. They went from 16th in total yards to 26th in total yards. Maybe the best thing that could happen to the Vikings would be their

defense just starts getting worse, getting older, and that could be good because Vikings would be their defense just starts getting worse, getting older, and that could be good because Cook would still be really good in that scenario, right? Because he's so involved in the passing game. Are you worried about maybe Alexander Madison getting a bigger role? No. Okay.

I think they'd like to just after what happened to Dalvin down the stretch where he got hurt. So, bigger role in terms of crushing Dalvin Cook's fantasy value? No, but hurting him a little bit and helping Madison? Potentially. We go to the NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons, 7-9 record, second place in the NFC South.

They kept their GM. They kept their head coach. Jamie, what do they need to do? Well, running back, I think, is the biggest one. Whether they're going to move on from Devontae Freeman or not, they need to find a second guy there because that seems to be what's worked best for him. It's worked best for the team. It's not the best

thing for fantasy, obviously, when you have two guys sharing, but you look at Devontae Freeman when he was putting up good numbers. It was with Tevin Coleman helping him share the load. You wonder if that hurt Freeman at some point, but hurt the team too. They're going to need a tight end if Austin Hooper leaves. And I think they're going to

have to find a number three wide receiver also. Again, not the best thing for fantasy because we'd like to see the targets go through Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. And Ridley was just awesome last year once they moved on from Sanu. But that's something that they're going to have to fill as a third pass catcher, whether it's replacing Hooper or Sanu.

So Heath, what do you make of Devontae Freeman and that running back situation? I think they're probably going to go get someone. There were some rumors that Devontae Freeman might not even be on the team. I think that seems unlikely just because it would cost them more to let him go than to keep him. But I don't expect that Devontae Freeman is going to have a major – I think it would be difficult for him to match what he did last year when he actually had a decent – like at the end of the year, it wasn't as bad as it seemed while it was happening.

But I think he's going to be the – I'm thinking he might be the lesser end of a running back committee. I'm trying to find the exact numbers but the targets were kind of interesting. The same thing that happened to DeAndre Hopkins happened to Julio Jones. He was

not as good. He did not get as many targets when Calvin Ridley was playing. Then Calvin Ridley missed like the last three games of the season, and Julio Jones, how many targets did he have in that game at San Francisco? He had 20, and then 15 against Jacksonville, and then 13 against Tampa. So he had 48 in his last three games. Out of 157.

157. 109 in 12 games before that. So, yeah, Hooper's gone. Sanu is obviously gone. He's midseason gone. You know, I just wonder how you guys see that scenario. Like, if they bring Hooper back, it doesn't seem like they want to right now.

I think they would love to. I just don't think they're going to afford it. Right now, it looks good for Julio because right like you said like they're letting hooper test the free agent market so news obviously gone that looks like a good scenario for julio and really but what if they bring someone else in you know how would you feel about it i mean he was on pace before those three games for 145 targets and I think that's what he had in 2017. He had a bad touchdown year that year, shockingly. But he still had 88 catches for 1,444 yards.

I think he's going to get 150 targets no matter who they bring in. And if they get really shorthanded, then he might get force-fed a few games. It's just you wonder, and we haven't really seen it yet. I mean, maybe last year, but he's to the age now, you get past 30 as a receiver, and we start to see a little decline in skill sometimes. His yards per target were below 9 for the first

time ever last year, and that was just 8.9, but it was a point lower than what his career average before that was. So, he might not quite be a contender to be the best receiver in fantasy. Devontae Adams or Julio Jones? Right now, Devontae Adams.

Yeah. But if they draft a wide receiver in the first round, Devontae Adams or Julio Jones? If it's just one, it's still Adams. If it's two, if it's Hooper plus a receiver. Hooper could swing both these teams. Yeah. Both these guys. Sure could.

They don't bring in Austin Hooper. They don't make a significant addition to the passing game. How are you going to feel about Matt Ryan? If they don't, I think the same. He's still a top-tall quarterback. I have him in a very similar range to Matthew Stafford. Which is what? Ryan is quarterback 11. Stafford. Which is what? Ryan is quarterback

11, Stafford's quarterback 13. I think in fantasy owners' minds there's such a big difference between those two. Ryan and Stafford. And rightfully so. I mean, Stafford has been such a replacement level fantasy quarterback.

We also don't know his health, too. I mean, that's a big part of it. Right. All right. Moving on from the Falcons to the Panthers. I feel like Heath is a closet Panthers fan. But they went 5-11, last place in the NFC South, and obviously dealt with quarterback issues.

I will tell you this. I only went back five years. Last year, the Panthers had their most passing yards as a team in their last five seasons. Are your socks knocked off right now by that statistic? Last year, the Panthers had their most pass attempts as a team, for sure. Yeah. Well, they did have their most passing yards.

Right, but they threw the ball like 650 times. But to think that Cam Newton being back and healthy would be good, Well, they did have their most passing yards. Right, but they threw the ball like 650 times. But to think that Cam Newton being back and healthy would be good for DJ Moore, I don't know that it would because he just doesn't throw that many. He doesn't throw that often. Different offense, though. Totally different. They have a coach who used to like being a ground-and-pound coach, right? Isn't that the thing?

He kind of reluctantly went to the— That was Matt Rule before he went to Baylor, yes baylor yes but you have to wonder if he's just gonna say here you go joe brady have fun all right what do you think he's what do they need panthers it's it's gonna be interesting to see like i think they probably need a better second running back uh the type of workload they're giving christianaffrey. I think they need receiver help, whether you think they need depth behind DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel or you think they need a number two behind DJ Moore. I think that's debatable, but they definitely need help at wide receiver.

And they probably need a young quarterback. I know they brought Kyle Allen back, and they're talking like how they're going to keep Cam Newton and he's going to start this year but you probably like he's not fully healthy yet either so he's healthy he's 100% I don't know 100% but he's he's healthy he's if he had to play again today I think he

played real okay yeah because the reports a couple weeks ago where that that's one of the reasons they weren't going to trade him because it was so hard to trade him when he wasn't healthy and not just that you got to worry you got to wonder if he's really Cam Newton anymore, right? It's a big question. That's the thing I think the new coaching staff is working through.

We also may see a scenario that Christian McCaffrey may not show up because of his contract. He, by the way, the Panthers have the seventh pick in the draft. Now, keep in mind, if the new CBA passes, I think pretty much everybody's going to be showing up. That's going to be one of the things the owners

want is no more training camp holdouts. It would be very, very financially damaging to do that. We shall see there. The CBS Sports mock draft has the team needs for the Panthers as quarterback, cornerback, yes, Bradbury's a free

agent, linebacker, and offensive line, yes. I think they're very high on Herbert. Quarterback. Yeah, I could see them taking the quarterback early for sure. I mean, what makes the most sense is you keep Cam, you do the Alex Smith scenario. You keep Cam, draft a guy, and if Cam's right,

you trade him and hopefully get good compensation for it after the season. But this is Matt Rule's team. You don't give a guy seven years and say you have to fix things in one or two years. So they have some leeway to play with this and see how it all sort of shakes out. If they take Jonathan Taylor with the seventh pick of the draft, where would you rank Christian McCaffrey? It would be a very Marty Herney thing to do. It will not happen.

Yeah, so what's the best case scenario for DJ Moore? What offseason move would be the best for Moore? Cam Newton's. Cam Newton again. Okay. Let's go to the Saints. Or maybe they trade up to get Joe Burrow. Oh, that'd be fun.

Or Tua. Let's go to the Saints. Jamie, you got the Saints. They already have one broken down quarterback. Why don't they want a second? 13-3, first place in the NFC South for the Saints. What do they need? They might need a quarterback

if they don't decide that they want to stick with Drew Brees. Then it'll be Teddy Bridgewater most likely, but still. That's a spot that they may need to fix, but obviously number two wide receiver. I mean, look, you can't go with Ted Ginn and Traquan Smith

after what they've shown you for the past two seasons and feel comfortable with it. So while we love all the targets from Michael Thomas and it helps Jared Cook and Alvin Kamara as well, that's their biggest hole offensively is to find a second receiving option at the wide receiver position. So who gets impacted if they do that,

if they bring in an exciting number two wide receiver i think it just helps breeze yeah like jared cook's going to regress regardless but it'll probably make it more obvious i i think it's pretty somebody's going to get hurt because they ideally would want to run the ball more. They threw the ball more than they had in the previous two seasons, I believe. It's definitely threw it more in 2019 than 2018. Drew Brees did. And Thomas had 185 targets. That is outrageously high for a Drew Brees pass catcher.

It might be the first time that he's had one with more than 150 targets. He's also his best pass catcher ever. be the first time that he's had one with more than 150 targets he's also his best pass catcher ever yeah i know but i mean even michael thomas in his like what are his targets by by year 149 147 185 yes so i thought he was going to get like 150 targets and he got 185 which was 28 more than anyone else in football and then you you've got Jared Cook. You've got Alvin Kamara. If they run the ball more than they, as much as they wanted to and throw it less, if they bring in another player.

The big difference, though, with the running game, because Latavius Murray proved to be he's not marking him. Sure, whatever it is, but I'm saying if there are fewer pass attempts and another wide receiver, I think that's going to have some type of impact. You're judging their pass attempts just based on Breeze? Yes.

It was Drew Breeze's pass attempts. Because that five-game stretch, Teddy was there. They weren't throwing the ball to the same level. No, it wasn't Bridgewater. It was Breeze's pass attempts per game. Yeah, they threw the ball six more times than league average last year.

Like they weren't a super pass heavy team. I, Michael Thomas is probably not going to get 185 targets and he's probably not going to set the receptions record again. He will probably be worse than he was last year. Sure. He'll probably settle in around 160 targets would be my guess. Sure. You know, and he's still going to be the target leader without question. He's still going to be their most productive pass catcher without question. The thing will become is at what point do they invest in another wide receiver? You know, if it's another Ted Ginn, Traquan Smith type, like do they go get Henry Ruggs?

I'm sorry. I'm doing some math here. I mean, if it's that type of player, you know, somebody who's just a field stretcher, and I don't want to just put Ruggs in that category, but, you know, a fast guy that's going to, you know, I hate using the phrase, but take the top off the defense. Right.

You know, that type of guy, then I don't think things change very much. That's not a high target guy, right. If it's a Jerry, Judy, C.D. Lamb type of guy, you know, is it, you guy, then it's a different conversation for what this offense looks like. So I don't know if Sean Payton just has this is what I want.

Rieger from TCU, the KJ kid from Penn State, just guys that can run and do some different things that way. We'll see what they do. I don't think they're going to spend any money in free agency on a receiver. I don't think they're getting Robbie Anderson. Drew Brees' pass attempts last three seasons

33.5, 32.6, 37.3. About four and a half more than what he had done the previous two years. It's interesting because of the times he comes off the field for Taysom Mill too. But he'll barely ever passes.

Huh? He'll barely ever passes. But it's still taking the ball out of Breeze's hands. Yes, it is. And just for your Michael Thomas concerns, Adam, he's got 100 points to play with. He outscored every other wide receiver by 100 points. I'm not sure it's the Michael Thomas concern.

Maybe it's Alvin Kamara concern. I think we saw what happens with Kamara when he has a bad touchdown season because he doesn't quite compare in terms of total yards to the other elite running backs. He's not going to be a 2,000 total yard guy. Right. Yeah, I don't know. I kind of want to see 16 games healthy

without Ingram there. We got robbed of that last year. We did. We did. All right. Finally, Tampa Bay. Have we talked about Tampa Bay this offseason? Nope. 7-9, second place in the NFC South. They ran the ball a lot. 14th most rush attempts per game.

And that's a dumb thing to do when you have the third worst yards per carry in the NFL. They led the NFL in passing with the fourth most pass attempts per game. I guess they couldn't really throw it much more than they did. So what do the Buccaneers need, Heath? They need Melvin Gordon and they need to make up with Jameis Winston

that's what the Buccaneers need to do for us fantasy managers in all seriousness if the reports are correct and they don't intend on bringing Jameis back they need a quarterback and I would assume that Rivers maybe Teddy Bridgewater

would be at the top of that list assuming that Brady doesn't want to come. I think their priority list, from what I've been hearing, is Brady, Teddy, Jameis. In that order. And how much of a difference... Obviously, there's a difference

between Jameis and Brady. We think. I'm a little less convinced, but we think. Do you think Brady can go 5,030? No. Three? But I think He's not going to throw 30 interceptions, obviously. Right. I think he can go 4,500 with 30 touchdowns.

I think Brady and Teddy are both fine for Chris Godwin and bad news for Mike Evans. I don't think bad news, but I think it caps his ceiling. I mean, Bruce Arians is of the mindset that he can run his offense with anybody. If he had Adam running his offense, he could still throw the ball down the field and have success.

That's just the mindset that he has. He's wrong about that. Not throw the ball down the field what what was the uh what was the game heath at the super bowl fan event thing they um there were lots of them yeah the one where you could where you struggled and i was like really there's a throwing at 40 yards um yeah it was a target throwing target thing yeah well i think it was 40 yards 40 yards it was the with the long throw like there were several different throws i think it was the 40 yard throw that was uh more difficult than we anticipated we had a conversation pre-game uh john breach one of

the members of the pick six podcast covers the nfl for us is a former college hunter or kicker his dad was a former kicker for the Bengals. And he said that he threw the ball on a, I think it was a fake punt. I assume it was a punter. 45 yards in a game. Okay. And his colleagues, Wilbertson and Ryan Wilson

were saying that right now he couldn't throw the ball 40 yards. And he says that he couldn't. And John's not the biggest guy. John's about Adam's size, right? Yeah, a little bigger. I mean, he's in better physical condition. He's definitely in better shape than Adam.

You haven't seen my dad arms, okay? I lift a 20-something pound weight all the time every day. That's true. And then when you factor in the hair, it's like 23 pounds. I think that so we were standing outside you factor in the hair it's like 23 pounds um i think that so we were standing outside this our set for the super bowl with brady quinn and former quarterback and he was saying yeah you know maybe he could do it and brady's very anal so he actually walked off 20 yards just to sort of because we were you know looking at the parking lot and 20 yards when you

look at it wasn't very far and 40 yards when you project it out wasn't very far so i feel like i get 40 i could do it i could throw 40 but do you get to step into it heath i forgot um like you can't take a run you could take a step right well i think you take a three-step drop and you you do it it was an nfl sized football which i think is gonna be that's the problem that's gonna be a problem for him a I think is going to be a problem. That's the problem. That's going to be a problem for him. A big problem. That is going to be a problem. Yeah. Well, you could always Brady it.

Deflate it. Do I get a glove? Can I wear a glove? No. That probably wouldn't help. There were no gloves there for the contest. I wore a glove. To everybody's needs.

We've covered it. I wore a glove to pump gas yesterday. Oh, my God. Scary times. It was like 76 degrees there. It wasn't for that. It's because there's coronavirus all over the place, man. Oh, my God.

It's in my neighborhood. It's in my hood. I think you get it from surfaces, though, right? You could. Yeah, you can. You can. You don't want to put your hand on your face after you pump gas, basically. I guess. All right. You can. You don't want to put your hand on your face after you pump gas, basically.

Yes. All right, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are top seven wide receivers for everybody. Everybody's got Godwin ahead of Evans in PPR. If Tom Brady goes to the Bucs, who that is currently ranked behind these two, would you move ahead of them? I don't think I would change it. I would not move Godwin down. Well, you have Evans ahead of Hopkins, Heath.

I have Hopkins lower than everyone. Hopkins would go ahead of Evans. And then it's DJ Moore and Cooper Cup. Yeah, I think Evans would probably stay ahead of those guys. Like, if Cam was... It'd be interesting between DJ Moore and Evans. I can't wait to have this conversation in a year. Not even a year. Just like midway through the season.

Tom Brady is with the Bucs. O.J. Howard is going off. Brady is great. They do not like O.J. Howard. O.J. Howard needs to escape Tampa Bay. Jason Light gave us that BS quote then about how excited he was for him. Couldn't be more excited. That's called drumming up interest in your player.

Okay, that's a team need and a fantasy need is trade O.J. Howard, please. Free O.J. Howard. All right, let's read some emails. I'm so curious to see what they're going to do in their backfield because if they don't get Melvin Gordon or somebody with a name, do they draft someone

in free agency? Maybe this is going to be Ronald Jones' year. They really like him, apparently. It's just a matter of can he get it together? If they don't make any moves, when would you draft Ronald Jones?

Six? Round five, six? Yeah. He's not that bad. He had 100 yards. Are we drafting with Ben? His last two games were quite good. Wow.

Over 100 yards in both of them. Total yards against Houston. They're a very sneaky team this year because their defense was dramatically improved over the course of the season. It was playing great by the end of the year. If they're able to keep Barrett and Sue and JPP, that keeps that defensive front at a very good level, and their secondary was really playing well toward the end of the season.

All right, it's time now for some emails. This is Ted from somewhere west of the largest military base on the East Coast. California? Yep, that works. Hello, Baker, Sam, Bill, and Leroy. Baker and Sam are two of the quarterbacks

from that class. I was thinking Sooners. That was my first guess there. Last year, we converted our three-keeper half PPR league into a super flex league. We had a major shortage of quarterbacks, so much so that we had teams trading top receivers for backup quarterbacks just to fill their QB slot.

I wanted to know your opinion if there should be rostering restrictions in a super flex league, like only one keeper quarterback and two quarterback maximums on the roster, or do you think that's why you draft quarterback early and let the chips fall where they may? Let the chips fall.

Yeah, I think that's part of the strategy is you want to kind of hoard quarterbacks in that scenario if you can. You know what? Let's see. These are definitely Sooners, by the way. Leroy Selman. So I couldn't think of.

Billy, I don't know who that is. Billy Simms? Was Billy Simms a Sooner? Probably we should know that. Let's see. Okay, let's see like the 15th best quarterback in fantasy in six point for passing touchdown leagues. I don't know if that was four or six.

One, two, three, four, five. About 280 points. How many wide receivers had more? Oh my gosh, only one? All right, never mind. I was going to make a point. I'm not going to make it now. From Megabyte Ronnie, grade the trade.

I received... Well, let's do what he gave up first. He gave up Travis Kelsey and Danny Amendola. He got... So he gave up Travis Kelsey. Yeah, he got Ian Thomas, Corey Davis, and a 2021 first round pick. It really matters.

A 21? Yes. F. Yeah, that's not a very good trade at all. That's pretty bad. What is Corey Davis' dynasty value right now? Very, very little. Yeah.

You listened to me last year. You'd know that. You already nailed that one. I did. Again, that was. You already nailed that one. I did. Again, that was more about Mariota than anyone. Well, that's it for today's show. Jamie, are you going to be on Thursday's show?

I'll let you know. Oh, you're going to be on Thursday's show. I'm going to take a day off tomorrow. Wow. I'm going to lay in bed and watch Narcos. And I can't wait. Must be nice. It is nice. I finally going to lay in bed and watch Narcos, and I can't wait. Must be nice. It is nice.

I finally get a day off. I haven't had one of those in a long time. You haven't been working for the last two months. There's another sport going on. Are we on the clock yet, by the way? There's another sport going on right now, you know. Are we on the clock? Probably not. Okay.

Damien and I just started a fantasy draft, a fantasy draft, fantasy baseball draft. Am I on the clock? What pick did you have? I don't know. I, I didn't even pay attention. You are not on the clock because we are on the clock for you. I got a question. Who's the second best player in AL only?

I told you it's Garrett Cole. But he cheats. Yeah, it's definitely not Garrett Cole. Um, didn't he get like, uh, give up four home runs in the last outing? Yes, he did. Two to Miguel Cabrera. And he's always given up home runs, and now he's going to Yankee Stadium. And no more garbage cans, right?

He doesn't use the garbage cans. And no more elite spin. Yes, well, it certainly had a big effect on... Charlie Morton just had his best season ever after leaving the Astros. The Rays are a lot smarter than the Yankees. Eh, I'm not sure about that. Let's see. We pick fourth.

Heath picks. How many people are still listening right now? You want to hear a funny story? So the person who has the first pick in the draft right now, and in a points league, not a road, a points league, it's Mike Trout. Just take Mike Trout. If you want to take a pitcher, fine, but it should be Mike Trout.

So he's been on the clock for an hour and 15 minutes. He's probably going to use the entire three hours and auto-pick Mike Trout. Last year, he was on the clock. He spent the whole three hours, and he auto-picked Justin Verlander. And I paused the draft, and I reached out to him, and I was like, Hey, you auto-picked. I'll reset it. Please go in and make your pick. And I paused the draft and I reached out to him and I was like, hey, you auto-picked. I'll reset it. Please go in and make your pick.

So I did that. We rolled back the pick. He goes in. He picks Justin Verlander. So he waited three hours for him to do that. Reset it and he did it again. If you pick six, who are you taking? Who do you want? I will probably take DeGrom. What if Cole's there? DeGrom's my number one starting pitcher. Who are we want? I will probably take DeGrom. What if Cole's there?

DeGrom's my number one starting pitcher. Who are we taking? Four. So my top five picks in points leagues are Trout, Yelich, Betts, Bellinger, Cole. Have a great day, everybody. Bellinger, really? Hopefully somebody will take Acuna and we can take Betts. Why did you want to take Acuna?

Because his play discipline is terrible. He's not that good on this floor. Oh, actually, no, Bregman. We should take Bregman. I forgot about it. He was the number one hitter in this format. No, they don't get the signs anymore. That's true.

That's actually an interesting point. All right, we got to go. See you. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the team needs for the NFC East and the NFC West. All right, Thursday, not tomorrow. Bye. Great close. Great.

We're still on the air. This is the worst ending to a show we've ever had.