Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Cash Game Strategy; Early Week 1 Lines & Salaries (Fantasy Football Today DFS Podcast)

Episode Date: August 10, 2021

You can download and follow 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Welcome to the debut of Fantasy Football Today DFS with Frank Stampfl, Mike McClure and Sia Nejad! Let's start with NFL DFS cash games (3:05). What are they? ... What strategies are we looking to use in cash games (11:24)? Should you make more than one cash game lineup? Which game types do we like to target? ... Let's get to know the guys (22:06)! ... What is our cash game strategy for each position, starting with QB (28:10)? Should you pay up for running backs in cash games (31:41)? ... Should you be looking to stack your wide receivers with your QB (33:53)? ... Does all of this mean we spend down at tight end and defense in this format (37:38)? ... Let's take an early look at Week 1 lines and salaries that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel (44:25)! Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Roto_Frank @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome into the debut episode of Fantasy Football Today DFS, your home for all things NFL DFS for the 2021 season and beyond, hopefully forever. I am your host, Frank Stamfel. And before I even introduce these fine gents, just want to let you know why you should be listening or watching this podcast. There's a lot of DFS content out there, a lot from many, many smart people. It can be overwhelming. Our job here will be to make things easy for you to consume,

but also do so in a fun, smart, and entertaining way. And of course, we want them in money. That's what it's all about. I believe we have the right crew here to help you do that, as I am joined by two of the best in the industry. First up from Sportsline and the Early Edge podcast, I've heard him referred to as M-Squared by the coach himself. He is Mike McClure.

What's going on, Mike? Not a lot, Frank. So excited to be here with both of you guys. It's been a lot of fun. I can't wait for the NFL season, getting prepared for it again, even preparing for the show this morning. It just hits different when you get to the NFL season. It just is so much different than the other sports. So excited. Very happy to be here. Speaking of hitting different, the next gentleman that I'm about to introduce, he did say that outside of hanging out with his family, of course, family comes first, that studying and doing NFL DFS is his favorite thing to do in the world.

Next up, you might have heard him on the First Cut Golf podcast. He is Sia Najad. What is happening, Sia? How are you, Frank? And I'm not sure I said that outside part that you led with, but we can keep that between us. Listen, you're so right, Mike. Football season does hit differently. It's just a different energy that I think we all have. And I'm really hoping and I can kind of promise everybody listening, we're going to bring that energy to you along with all of the stats and analytics that you're going to need to be successful. Yeah, and hopefully we do so. Again, having fun, ripping each other a little bit before we even got on. These guys are like, take off that jet hat. What are you doing?

So we'll get used to that. Unfortunately, yes, I am a Jet fan and you'll get the opportunity to get to know us a little bit more later on in this podcast. But for today and for most of August, really, we're going to focus on the strategy side of things and we'll have player analysis and some team level analysis.

And today we are going to focus on cash game strategy and in a very early look at week one NFL DFS, some lines, obviously those have been out for a while. Salaries recently came out on both DraftKings and FanDuel. So we'll take a look at some of that. But again, throughout August, we'll focus on some strategy pieces for tournaments, GPP, showdown, a whole bunch of stuff. So regardless of what level player you are, if you just need a refresher on some of these things, if you want to pick up on a few tips and tricks, these guys, they play different. There's a whole different type, a whole bunch of types of processes for playing NFL DFS. So I'm excited to pick both

of these guys' brains. Let's jump right in. Cash game strategy. And what are cash games in DFS? I think most people, when they hear cash games, they think 50-50s, head-to-head, double ups. Mike, we'll start with you. When you think cash game, is that it? Or are there a few other formats that you're looking at? There are definitely a few other formats. But yeah, I think that it's a very standard phrase. When you hear the word cash game, the average person is going to think double up 50-50 game. That's what they think you're going to be talking about. I personally like to mix in a lot of head-to-heads.

I also like to play a lot of three-man leagues. That's something I consider a cash game for sure. And it definitely makes up a large portion of what I allocate towards the cash games in general. So that's one. We'll dive into it a lot deeper later, I'm sure. But three-man leagues are one that I like. And I'll briefly tell you why. If you go to the lobby in DFS and look for contests, you're going to see there are three

to four players, maybe more, that are in seemingly every single contest, right? When you see that, other really experienced players are not going to join that three-man league with one of those two players. So those are ones where I actually like to step up and step in and play that knowing that the third player that's coming in is likely not an experienced player. Therefore, we're getting the payout with three people entering rather than two. It's essentially a head-to-head with upside because it drops the frequency in which I need to beat that other pro player in terms of my win rate, right? My win rate, I can get by with a much lower win rate

and profit over the long course of the season. So that's something that I do a lot when it comes to cash games. See, a lot of times when people hear cash games, I think they think about less risk. There's less reward. You're looking to just about double your money. Cash games, we know, don't have tiered payouts. Everyone wins the same amount. Do you agree with these notions? Is there anything else that you would like to piggyback off of what Mike said about cash games in general, just an overall philosophy? Yeah. I mean, those are certainly the things that come to mind. And I do agree. First of all, the three-man analysis there is really interesting. And I think that's something people need to look into because I think most people,

their tendency is to just go to the tournaments and then maybe just go to the 50-50s if they do the cash game. For one, people don't play enough cash games, okay? And that's sort of a bankroll management thing, especially for the beginner player. But the second thing is, if you go to all of the available games you can play,

literally, if you click on DraftKings All instead of just tournaments or just cash, you're going to see a bevy of things that you've probably never seen before, including those tournaments that Mike is talking about. So don't be mistaken. There isn't a limited number of offerings here. There is way more than you think. And it's really all about exploring it. I know this show is going to explore kind of which tournaments are, and cash games, but which tournaments are more sort of beneficial, which have the greater payout, which are kind of slanted more towards, you know, like 22, 23% payouts instead of 19, 20, which ones have a first place that has just way too big of a prize, and then there's a huge drop off. So all of those things are really important. But yeah, I mean, as far as cash games are concerned, it really is, to me, all about bankroll management. Of course, everybody wants to hit big.

Of course, everybody wants to come first, second or third place in some big MME or maybe even a single entry because those can pay out really big, too. But at the end of the day, your probability in hitting those on a consistent basis is relatively low, no matter how good you are at this. So to sustain being able to play and not digging back into your pocket figuratively, you really need to do the tournaments that Mike was talking about, do the 50-50s. And the real basic premise there is that if you're doing a cash game, more often than not, about 50% is going to be paid out of whatever tournament or whatever cash game you're doing a cash game, more often than not, about 50% is going to be paid out of whatever

tournament or whatever cash game you're in. Whereas in the tournament, you're looking at around 20, 22%. I mean, it's really easy math when you consider that way. So while you're not getting the huge potential payout, you are getting sustained, quote, DraftKings income if you play it right. Yeah. And I think choosing the right games is something you hit on early there. And we will have a podcast dedicated to that throughout the course of August too, because Mike was showing us some awesome tools before we even started up here. We had a few meetings just about the show and I was blown away. I'm like, I didn't even know this kind of stuff existed. So I'm excited to get to know and learn some about that because I would, I don't know if it's half the battle, battle Mike but I think choosing the right games is something that is very overlooked and it's undervalued especially

in and DFS and it's not just for tournaments I think it could be for cash games as well oh it absolutely is it is for cash games for tournaments generally speaking especially in a sport like NFL over the course of the season, the contests you choose to win are going to be more important than any individual lineup that you enter, right? Especially when you have a solid process, the variance is going to be there, obviously, but how you manage your money, which is how you enter these contests, we're going to touch on it in later episodes. Obviously, you mentioned some of the tools. We will look at what the rake fees are, what percentages are going to be paid to the top 10 to the top five etc we're going to look and dive into all of that and you're really going

to be able to save yourself some money and make yourself some money over the course of the season when you do that but you're dead on it's absolutely important contest selection that's you know it's a general term we always talk about it you hear if you're familiar with fantasy daily fantasy sports betting you hear bankroll management right? What the bankroll management really is referring to here is contest selection, right? It's referring to contest selection. Do you guys think that there's like a negative connotation that surrounds cash games because you can't win this huge prize pool of money, right? Like, so, you know, in a tournament, we know the higher you finish, the more money that you can win, so, you know, in a tournament, we know the higher you finish,

the more money that you can win. But do you think that there, at this point, is like a negative connotation when it comes to playing cash games? Because I've seen that in the industry. Like, for example, Adam Levitan, right? He's a great player. He's with Established to Run.

He is just purely a cash game player or mostly a cash game player. So I do wonder if, you know, a lot of the industry has kind of gravitated away from that. Have you guys seen that? I've definitely seen it. There's a certain condescension that I think is just sort of permeates whether it's NFL DFS or just DFS in general. When you mentioned cash games, you know, you know, I'm on the first cut. And when I mentioned cash games to some of the people, you know, I do DFS golf with, they almost kind of like

look at me like, well, what are you doing that for? Like that, that's, that that's not really like, it's almost like, that's not going to pay the bills. That's not going to give you the big, like you more, you are more advanced. You shouldn't be playing these cash games. And that's so not the case. So I think we fall into these traps where we're listening to people on podcasts or, you know, whatever medium it is. And we're like, oh, this guy, he hits big in these big tournaments. I just saw him win $50,000. I'm listening to his podcast. So I have all his information. So maybe I can hit there too. Well, the reality is on the back end, that guy's probably playing a lot of cash games too, which is giving him the ability to enter some of these other

contests where he's hitting big. So yeah, I totally agree. There is a connotation there and it kind of needs to go away. Mike, what do you think? Why should you play cash games, right? I mean, is it something where it kind of, I don't want to say backs up your bankroll, but obviously it's easier to cash out in a cash game than it is to do so in a GPP or a tournament setting. Do you kind of use that to almost like hedge your weekly playing and how much you're putting in because you feel much more confident that you're going to cash out in a cash game versus AGPP? Oh, yeah, definitely. Especially, I mean, it's all going to come down to like what kind of volume you're actually playing as well. But if you're playing, you know, with some meaningful volume, you definitely want to play them. I personally want to play on any given week. My hope is

essentially to break even. And a lot of that is going to, it sounds really weird to say that, right? We all want to make money, but in general, like breaking even is a fine outcome because we know there are going to be two to three weeks that really make or break your season in terms of like massive upside in terms of profitability. So what I'm doing with the cash games there is I'm hoping that it's going to essentially bankroll my tournament entries. A tournament entry, by the time you click submit on that, based on the way that I'm playing with them, you're basically writing those off as a lost cost when you enter that tournament.

Anything you win there, you hope that it's going to be big and you will have those weeks where you hit on the upside. But I'm looking for the cash games to essentially bankroll my tournament play is the way I approach it. When it comes to cash games, do you guys play more than one lineup or do you just focus solely on making one awesome cash game lineup or what you hope to be awesome? And then you just enter that across the industry, like in your head to heads, your 50 50s double ups. Is it just one cash game lineup? For me, it is not. Yeah, for me, I will go with two cash game lineups a lot of the time. It's really going to depend on are there two different quarterback situations that I really, really like, which is obviously going to be a handcuffittle, some of these other guys all playing on the afternoon slate, all playing in the morning slate. Some of them are in primetime games. So just the depth of the positions can really, really dictate how many cash game lineups I have. Now, I will say that the core is generally the same. It might be something where it's a 2v2 swap or a 3v3 swap between those two lineups. So it's a relatively similar core,

just hoping to kind of let variants go in there and really protect the downside a little bit. Yeah. And I think it's okay to have some variants with your cash game lineups. I certainly don't submit just one across the board. I mean, I definitely think you can do that if your confidence rate is really high that week. And honestly, I think some people in it, and I include myself in this, I think a weakness across the board, whether it's NFL or PGA or MLB, I think a lot of people want to just diversify their portfolio and sort of hedge against themselves a little bit. And you don't want to get into that area. Again, these are topics that we're going to talk about through the month

of August, of course, but you want to be careful there. But I do think there's viability. And if you're entering 250-50s, and let's say they both have, you know, somewhere between three and five hundred people in them. If you if you run out with, you know, you know, Josh Allen and Diggs in one and Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins in the other and then everything else is just kind of a little bit of the same. You're probably going to be OK if that ends up panning out for you. So you don't need to be universal there. And it's almost counterintuitive to put all your chips into one lineup in cash because if that fails, then oh boy, because that's not going to be good. But I definitely think a couple lineups in cash is perfectly fine. And again, a goal throughout this month will be helping those learn DFS

because there's a lot of people coming over from the Fantasy Football Today community, which we do appreciate you. And that's obviously a season-long podcast, mostly season-long with Adam Azer there. But a lot of people are coming over from Mike's background and C's background. And those are more experienced players.

But we want to help out both sides. So we are going to have an episode where we talk about terminology and specific terms. And Mike, you did say 2v2 and 3v3. If anyone's out there who's listening who doesn't understand what that is, can you just explain it to them? Yes.

C actually did a great job explaining it the first time indirectly there. 2v2, in my opinion, there would be he was talking about having Allen and Diggs versus Hopkins and Murray. That would be a 2v2, leaving everything else the same and just swapping two players for me. And then same thing, they might change the defense on the second team to make have three differences. But generally speaking, when I'm playing lineups like that, that's what it's going to come down to. And if you frankly, if you look at, you know, a head to head or a 50 50 with other good players, almost especially early in the season, a lot of weeks where there's just obvious chalk, like that's what a lot of your lineups are

going to come down to anyway. It's going to be two V two for the entire week, right? Yep. Mike, you did a good job earlier explaining the three man league and why you play it and why it can be profitable for you. See it. Do you have a specific format and cash games that you generally lean towards or do you just kind of format and cash games that you generally lean towards? Or do you just kind of sprinkle all throughout 5050 head to head double ups, etc? Yeah, a couple things. I mean, mostly I'm getting into 5050s. And I'm looking for 5050s that actually have a good number of entrance in them that there might be single entry, but there's, you know, somewhere between three and 500 people in them, let's say so you can kind of, you know, there's room for error

in those. And obviously, the more people you know, the less you're probably dealing with, from a percentage standpoint, the less you're probably dealing with a bunch of, you know, pros that might be playing similar or have similar information as you do. So I definitely, I'm primarily doing the 50-50s in cash. I do some head-to-heads. I typically look for, I mean, you know, for those of you that don't know, if you're going to some head-to-heads. I typically look for, I mean, you know, for those of you that don't know, if you're going to the head-to-head, you can click on the lobby and kind of see who's waiting in there to do a head-to-head tournament. And you can kind of make your decisions off that. You know, like obviously there's a lot of pros that have a lot of accolades and have won

a lot that are kind of sitting in a lot of those, but there's also a lot of kind of like newcomers as well. And you can kind of just, you know, pick your poison in that regard. So it is a little bit more versatile than people think in terms of being able to sort of see who was in there. But I relegate most of my stuff to 50-50 in cash. Mike, how much would you say that cash games make up your weekly spendings on a main slate? I know that you are a big showdown player and we will have a whole podcast dedicated to showdown strategy. But how much would you say cash games make up your weekly spendings on a main slate? Yeah, it's a great question.

It's something that's actually going to fluctuate for me throughout the season. It's something we'll talk about as we lead into the season. But if you're going to play cash games, I would want to play them more aggressively at the beginning of the season and tail that off as the season progresses. The reason for that, there's a lot of new coming players. As Sia just mentioned, the lobby is a lot softer. The pricing is softer. There's more inefficiencies and everything in the early weeks of the season. So I highly recommend if you're getting into cash games, you go a little bit harder at them early in the season. So for me, it might literally be 50-50, which I used to play about 70% to 80% cash games. But now I do play a lot of tournaments.

And that showdown number, as you mentioned, does skew how much I'm putting in play because I love the showdown slates for the primetime games. However, I will be playing around 50% to 60% cash in probably the first seven to eight weeks of the season and then slowly kind of tail it off towards the end of the season. The reason for that, experienced players are going to win money. The majority of the money new players are going to stop playing by the midpoint in the season. Some of them, some of them will continue on as they find resources like ours, hopefully are able to continue to win and continue to play. Uh, but it will get tougher to win and to cash those games as the pricing gets more efficient. Other things

get more efficient throughout the season and less new players involved. So for me, it's a lot of cash games early, tailing it off throughout the course of the season. Yeah. And you mentioned soft pricing. We'll talk about some of it later on. I mean, some of these prices, when I was going through today, I was like, what is happening? So that's going to be fun to take a look at here. See, if you just had to put a general strategy, right? One sentence or phrase to sum up your strategy for cash games, what would that be? Well, it would probably be look for high scoring games and look for high floors with the players you're selecting. And to break down the high floor thing, really, the cool thing about NFL DFS is volume is

very, like you can predict volume to a very large degree. Now, you know, with, with golf, for example, and I know I've mentioned the first cut a couple of times, but you can't really predict volume that there, there isn't really any such thing. You either, you know, have 72 holes to play or you have 36, depending on whether you make the cut. And that's kind of all, you know, other than the metrics that surround that. So long story short, I know that Stefan Diggs is going to probably get a certain range of targets, especially in a higher scoring game. And I know what running back, the Bills is a bad example, but I can pick a team and I know who the lead back is, like a Zeke,

for example, and know that he's going to get 18 to 22 touches through the run and through the air. So they can be, quote, chalky plays. They can be plays that are popular. You're just trying to get volume because, again, you're just trying to fall within that upper 50%. So if you can predict the volume, you're probably going to fall on the right side of that pendulum. Yeah, for me, I was going to say maximize the floor, which is something you hit on, and eating chalk. Some people are like, what? Eating chalk? Why would anyone do that? Well, chalky players are the ones that most people in the industry know are going to be in a good spot and are going to have very high ownership on a projected week.

But you might not want to move away from that chalk because if everyone has them, and look, if it's an obvious spot, if there's a backup running back who's starting, I mean, a lot of people are going to know, uh, Mike, what do you think about chalk plays when it comes to cash? Are you fading that? Or are you leaning into the chalk a little bit more? What do you think? Yeah, for me, it'll just be taking a hard stance on it. Uh, we'll have good chalk. We'll have bad chalk. And in the instance where there's good chalk, um, you know, it's not necessarily a cash game forward strategy but i'll basically be overweight on it so basically 100 even if i'm playing two lineups i will have

them in all lineups there um but definitely not afraid to eat the chalk there at all i think that there are some very interesting decisions to make in terms of wide receiver three and your defense uh in cash games that can really give you the differentiation that you're needing you can also one of my honestly one of my favorite ways to differentiate is get different at quarterback uh you know we look at quarterback and and you know obviously it's quarterback and then wide receiver three hopefully with the stack that i'm making but i have no issue getting different there is just because of the distribution of points and how they're scored at the quarterback position they do all kind of bunch together. So I'll take

advantage of some of those situations quite a bit. But short answer, definitely not afraid to eat the chalk there. I think that there are they're popular for a reason for the most part. Yeah, we're going to talk about specific positions for cash games in just a little bit. We're going to take a quick break when we return. Get to know the guys. We'll do that next here on Fantasy Football Today DFS. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance

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All right, we're back. And one of the things that I used to hate back in college and high school is when they would go around the room. Oh, introduce yourself. Tell us something about you, your background, a fun fact, your favorite football team, whatever it might be. You guys now have to do all of that. So we'll start with you. See a little bit of your background, your DFS resume. If you've got a fun fact, a favorite football team, let us know. Yeah, so I'll start with the favorite football team. It's the Washington football team fan, but I am a very proud, originally from DC, so a very proud Washington football team fan. A little bit of background.

So I mean, we had this in the trailer for whatever it's worth. I'm a practicing attorney, or at least I was for about 14, 15 years. I practiced in Florida and in Virginia. Still have my license. I just happen to not practice law anymore. You know, it's interesting from a DFS standpoint, I've been basically doing DFS since DraftKings and Vandal came out. But interestingly, before those two outfits came out, there was a website. This was a website that was really on the cusp of something big, but I don't think they realized how big at the time, but it was called Fantazzle.com. And in my impression, this is all the way back in 2007, it was the first DFS site ever in the

United States. I actually knew the owner of that and actually wrote for them way back in 2007. Well, long story short, I don't think they could figure out the American laws and how that was going to work. And then a few years later, here comes DraftKings and FanDuel and we see how prosperous they are. And so it's interesting. I guess I was kind of on the front end of this, not realizing how big this thing was going to be. But outside of that, as far as a fun fact, I think you might have mentioned that. A few years ago, I played in the World Series at Poker Main Event, and that was fun.

I cashed. 8,000 people were in that tournament, and I was in the top 10%. So that was kind of a bucket list thing. I am a poker player, at least used to be. So that's something that that type of theory and that type of sort of strategy that goes with poker. I think there is some balance and some parallels to fantasy football and just game theory in general. So I like to try to apply that when it is actually applicable. Yeah, for sure. And I've come across a lot of DFS players who have had a background in playing poker and high stakes as well. So I think that makes a ton of sense.

If you're ever in New York, remind me not to invite you to any of my poker games with my buddies. I mean, we play, you know, we throw around like 20 bucks or whatever. But yeah, see you in a job not invited to those games. Mike, if you want to provide some background, look, if anyone follows Sportsline and CBS, they probably know a good amount about you by now. But some of your background, DFS resume, football team, fun fact?

Yeah, I got a lot of fun facts. Share the football team a little bit. I also have the bucket list item of playing in the World Series of Poker main event. I have not done that yet. Very impressive that Sia was able to play and cash in that. Definitely not an easy thing to do. So just so you know, we haven't talked much off air. I'm very impressed.

That's awesome. Thank you. As far as my DFS background, really, a little bit in 2009, but really 2011 is when I really broke in. And then we had sites like Star Street, Draft Street, if anyone's been around since those days. Sites that I really, really fell in love with, really through Major League Baseball. Just started to know enough to be dangerous.

I had a background in mechanical engineering. Nothing, you know, kind of brute force taught myself a little bit of the programming side. Started putting things in databases and really ran with it there. Had the fortune of all the sites raising VC money. Being there through the big boom really helped put myself in a really good position from that. And really just kind of emerged myself in that and was able to build from there. But I've been playing, I guess, makes me old now, a decade. I've been playing daily fantasy sports at a pretty high level for a decade now. As far as my favorite teams, I'm originally from Kansas City.

So I obviously am a Kansas City. So I obviously am a Kansas City Chiefs fan. I have a dog that we have all seen. His name is also Chief. Fortunately, I've got the AirPods in today, so he can't jump and join. If you've followed any other productions, you've definitely seen the days when I don't have the AirPods with Chief jumping up. But yeah, Kansas City fan. Other fun facts for you. Love tennis. Tennis is my favorite sport, favorite game to play. I typically play tennis four or five days a week. That's about it. Nice. I played tennis in high school. That was a long time ago. So I've got to brush up a little bit. I have not played in the World Series of Poker. I have not cashed in the World Series

of Poker. Chiefs fan, man. It's a good time. It's a good time to be a chiefs fan for, for Mike there. Uh, yeah, you can see here I'm wearing a jets hat. It's been a very rough decade or so. I've, I'm cautiously optimistic about this current regime. So we'll see where it goes from there. Some background on me. If you listen to the fantasy baseball today podcast, you know, big in season, seasonal fantasy baseball, big and all seasonal fantasy sports. If we're being honest, I have a dynasty team in basketball, in football, in baseball for specifically for fantasy football. I do it all best ball playing some high stakes, some NFFC stuff, play DFS. I've been playing DFS since basically it came out. And I was in, you know, I want to say early college, late high school when it really kind of started to take off

here. Uh, and, and kind of, kind of I saw it come to fruition, right? And I've always been playing, but I haven't actually been playing. So that's where these guys come in. And I want to learn as much from Sia and Mike as I possibly can. A fun fact for me, I have over 70 of these little things called Funko Pops, by the way. And that is a, there's a glare in my room, so that's not great. But if you're watching, that is a Johnny Lawrence Funko Pop

from Cobra Kai that is actually signed by the actor William Zabka. So I have over 70 of those and I'm a bit of a hoarder when it comes to Funko Pops. But I do like them. They're awesome.

If you ever want to check any out, I do encourage people to do so. Let's get back into it. Some cash game strategy. We'll look position by position. You guys started to talk about this a little bit, Mike, specifically with you. You said quarterback and stacking your wide receiver three potentially. Let's just talk about quarterback first and foremost. It seems like this is the easiest position to project and easiest. I mean,

it's not actually easy, but it's relative to other positions. This is a position that has the ball in their hands constantly. And we know that you can project, uh, pass attempts and volume based on lines and, and game flow and where we think games are going to go. So when it comes to the quarterback position, do you have a general strategy for cash games? Uh, I do. Uh, so first thing we're going to do, obviously I run projections for everything, which will, will be on sportsline.com this year. Uh, but what i'm going to do initially is going to sort by points per dollar and look at what the value looks like what you know do we have an obvious mispriced quarterback like we will in week one where there's cheaper quarterbacks coming in and that's going to really dictate a lot of what the build is going to look like later in the year we typically have or i guess early in the

year too we have more value at the running back position. So depending on what the value at the running back position looks like, and then also how the value looks at the quarterback position is going to dictate everything. It's either going to be pay all the way up because we have so much value with the backup running backs, or it's going to be pay mostly down and then jam the stud running backs in, uh, in the cash game. So the pricing in the market, there's really going to dictate that decision probably more so than game script, probably more so than any sort of Vegas total. It's going to be what does the overall value look like

at those two positions, the quarterback and running back. The running backs really dictate where I'm going at quarterback. Yeah, again, because we're trying to maximize floor and paying up for high price running backs in cash games is, I would say, a profitable strategy.

But we'll get more into running backs in just a little bit. I think quarterbacks, you know, playing them, this can vary, like you said, Mike. But I found myself, more so last season than ever before, paying up because we have these elite rushing quarterbacks now. And you even see it in season-long fantasy football where you have six, seven, eight quarterbacks being drafted in the first five or six rounds. And that's because we have these amazing rushing quarterbacks. So see,

what do you think about that position? Has it changed a little bit with these influx of rushing quarterbacks? It has because yeah, exactly because of the rushing quarterbacks, because you're picking up so you're picking up so many points. If you have a quarterback that is potentially going to rush between, you know, 30 and 50 yards or sometimes more in the case of like a Lamar Jackson, for example. So yeah, that's a big part of it. And you really, again, you're chasing, you're chasing volume with all the positions, but if you can have the right quarterback with the right, the right implied total, let's say in like a higher scoring game, you're probably in really good shape. And if that quarterback also runs, you know, you've probably targeted the right guy so I agree I mean running back is so important especially in cash game

because you can sort of predict volume so you can start at the running back position and you know I want to jam in Christian McCaffrey and you know Antonio Gibson and whoever else you know I'm I only said Gibson well one because he's Washington football team but two because I'm not going to say CMC and Dalvin for example like you. There's some things that are prohibitive, so you kind of have to go down a few tiers. But at the end of the day, it really is important that you have a quarterback that's going to pick up points two or three different ways versus, let's say, an Aaron Rodgers,

who's a great quarterback and given the right matchup, might be a good playing in DFS, but he's not going to get you the type of yards that a Kyler Murray or a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson all the way down the line are potentially going to get you. So you're going to have to make that decision. And usually the decision is to go with that guy who's going to pile up yards with his feet. Mike, are you more likely to pay up at running back in cash games just because there's more weekly via volatility at wide receiver and tight end those past catchers? Oh yeah, there definitely can be

every you know i wish there was a generic rule across the board but it's always going to be slate specific uh in terms of what it looks like so if there's a you know a minimum salary running back you're almost definitely going to be playing them in some capacity how it impacts it mostly kind of dictates where i go in the flex spot even though it is a full on draft kings it's a full point ppr fan duel it is a half. A lot of times when we have situations like that, I will find a stud running back still in the lineup or down in the flex spot, which might be a little counterintuitive on a full point PPR site where you're more looking to take advantage of catching passes. You know, we'll dive into a lot of that stuff later in the

season, but it really, really depends on the slate and what we're looking at there. And we'll dive into a lot of that stuff later in the season. But it really, really depends on the slate and what we're looking at there. And we'll get to tight end in a minute, too. For me, the depth at the tight end position really, really, really dictates what I do at the running back position. And let me jump in real quick, Frank, because I think it's really important that everybody appreciates that we're just talking about cash games, because I agree with Mike, you're probably in a cash game in the flex spot going to run a running back out there. But, you know, if you're looking for, you know, variance and volatility, that receiver

position, especially on DraftKings with a full point PPR, that might be the better play in tournament. And I think the conventional wisdom is, well, just play a running back in that flex spot regardless, because you can predict volume with running backs. But that's not necessarily going to be your play in GPPs, which again, we'll just play a running back in that flex spot regardless, because you can predict volume with running backs. But that's not necessarily going to be your play in GPPs, which again, we'll talk about, I think, maybe later this week. But again, there's a difference there. They're not all the same.

It's not just chalk and no chalk. That flex position, that matters in terms of what tournament you're playing or what game you're playing. Yeah, and I think specifically when it comes to running backs, it seems obvious, but some of the things that we're going to be looking for snaps and touches are everything specifically targets and high level touches. So touches that are inside the red zone, the green zone that can turn into touchdowns are obviously much more valuable for running back. So we're going to be paying attention to throughout

the course of the season, snap rates, red zone usage targets. These are all things that we want in our running backs. And speaking of targets, that's exactly what you want for wide receivers because they can't do anything if they don't have targets. So in cash games, Mike, I know you've already hit on this a few times and you said obviously everything is going to depend

on the pricing of the slate. But talk to me more about that strategy that you mentioned, quarterback and your wide receiver three, potentially on the same team. I know that people like to stack in DFS. Is it something you do often in cash games? And are you looking for that bring back, you know, the player on the opposite team? If this game turns into a shootout, do you want one of those players in the opposite team in a cash game? Or is that more so just a GPP thing when you're chasing upside? Uh, it's definitely a uniform thing across all formats. Uh, I would say the one thing that I'm looking for mostly though, um, it's probably on cash game side too. It's probably going to be

something like Dalvin cook running back and then be attacking wide receiver three on the other side. Uh, and just some really, really, really basic generic game theory there. Why I mentioned wide receiver three and maybe not stud wide receiver one, In theory, if wide receiver one is having a massive day and able to get there, they're likely not trailing by as much as you think. Therefore, Cook's volume is not as exaggerated as you might think it should be. So some of just generic thought process game theory there. It's going to be a targeting and attacking some of those other receivers on the team because they're obviously hopefully shutting down wide receiver number one. So that's why we mentioned some of that. But in those scenarios where I'm mentioning quarterback and pairing them with wide receiver three, it's basically saying that it's not

important. Like the quarterback position isn't important in that lineup, but we are going to look for a wide receiver three, a cheaper wide receiver that grades out well in terms of target volume or projected points per dollar. And then we'll go ahead and pair him with that QB, knowing that the quarterbacks kind of are really bunched in terms of how they score fantasy points. Uh, but we're clearly going to be prioritizing the top play at, you know, a standalone wide receiver like Devante Adams, a standalone running back, whether it's on a half point P PPR side like Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, as I mentioned. So yeah, in those situations, I'm really not,

in cash games in general, I'm really not prioritizing the quarterback position at all. Specifically for wide receivers, tight ends, pass catchers in general for NFL DFS, you mentioned the volatility, and people might wonder, well, why is that? And I mean, it's because their outcome is dependent more so on outside factors than any other position. I mean, it depends on quarterback play. It depends on game flow. And you can say the same thing,

game flow for running backs. But if a quarterback is not throwing a running back the ball, that might not matter. Like Derrick Henry could still get his 30 carries in a game and that won't matter. But wide receivers and pass catchers in particular, their outcome is dependent on something else here. And see, for me, specifically in cash games, I do lean towards paying up for running back more often than not. But I am partial to these lower A-dot wide receivers,

average depth of target wide receivers, because those are easier to complete receptions. And obviously, receptions for specifically DraftKings, the full point PPR is everything. Yeah. And a half point in FanDuel is nothing to just ignore either. So no, I totally agree. It's interesting because a lot of times we're looking at sort of the opposite. We're looking at, you know, the average depth of target being long and that's going to be where we want our payoff to be. But you're right, those shorter routes, those like the Stefan Diggs runs, for example, those are going to be really

valuable because you're going to pick up those points. And by the way, there's something called yards after the catch too. So there's a lot of guys that will have those shorter routes and be able to break them. And we obviously have stats to monitor those as well. So I totally agree. I think for some people, Frank, that's a little counterintuitive, but it's absolutely something you should be looking at and focusing on. Specifically for tight end and defense, I don't know if you guys have any kind of specific strategy. I think we spoke beforehand and see you said,

look, I'm just, I'm paying down at defense, but do you guys have a specific strategy? Because it seems like if we're paying up for running back and obviously with these rushing quarterbacks, I mean, the salaries for these guys continue to climb. It seems like it is harder and harder to potentially pay up at tight end or even defense, which I don't know if you ever want to do that. Yeah. I mean, I'll jump in. I mean, I typically, I will typically just punt on defense and it works out a lot, but I'm not universally going to do that. I'm not universally going to pay like you're trying to pay 2000 or 2200.

I mean, it has to make some sense on some level, I guess, but I found myself last year. I'm curious what Mike's answer is here because I truly don't know what it is, but I found myself hitting like 2500 and below on DraftKings more often than not. And just being able to justify that play. And honestly, at least half the time it worked out. And the times it didn't work out, I was able to fit in other people in my lineup. So it ended up kind of paying off anyway. I will say this though.

Week one, for example, there's such soft pricing. We think it's soft now. Well, imagine the injuries we're about to see in the next couple of weeks. Like there's going to be some diamonds in the rough that are basically been priced at running back a receiver that all of a sudden get playing time because of injuries that are about to happen on unfortunate ones at that. But I think if you were ever going to pay up for a defense, I think maybe week one would be that time because of all the, just the volatility we're going to have with injuries and the pricing is just going to be so crazy.

You're going to be able to put so many people in your lineup. I'll give you an example. The 49ers are, I believe, at Detroit week one. I mean, I'm not against, and I happen to like Raheem Mostert, by the way. I think he's probably at least week one going to be the bell cow in that offense. I'm not against running out Raheem Mostert and paying the highest price at 4,200 for the San Francisco 49ers defense. I'm not saying that's going to be my strategy, but it's something to consider because it's going to be so easy to fit in and not a lot of people

will be doing that either. Of course, I'm talking more GPP than cash, but yeah, in cash, the short answer, pay down. Mike, what do you think about tight end and defense and cash? So I definitely agree on the pay down on the defensive side. That tends to happen a lot. So what I'll look at mostly there is also going to be game script and weather. Do we have any sort of elements that could lead to a slower pace of play? I want fewer plays. I want really high volatility environments overall I think is probably the best way to go uh you know as far as the defensive scoring in terms of the scoring an actual defensive touchdown tends to be somewhat random as well so yeah generally going to be

prioritizing the salary cap towards the other positions as far as the tight end goes very very very slate specific uh so like week one for, there's a chance that I'm going to two tight ends, one of them in the flex. Also just again, very hard to say right now because we don't know what the injuries are going to look like as Sia said. But we know that week one is going to be uncomfortable because you're going to have to pick between Travis Kelsey, Kyle Pitts, right? Unless you play one of them in the flex, depending on what the roster construction looks like. So I do that quite a bit, actually. If it's a scenario where I'm comfortable at other positions, I'm obviously paying down at quarterback a lot to be able to make this happen.

But I would basically jam someone like Travis Kelsey in and sometimes have that cheaper tight end that we know is going to be chalk also uh in the flex bizarre in the flex position but overall i do like to prioritize tight end number one just because there's a massive massive delta between them and the rest of the field yeah you mentioned kyle pitts he's 4400 on draft kings for week one all of the rookies by the way are just like way under price and maybe that's just a thing that happens every year for draft kings but uh before we get to the actual pricing, a few names and games that are popping out to us, anything else we want to know on cash games before we just wrap up here, put a bow on the strategy discussion. Mike, I know we had a meeting a few weeks back and you said that you always play your cash game lineup in at least one tournament. Why is that? Yes. So yeah, especially the way I'm doing cash games, which is going to be mostly

computer generated using my my simulations and my projections so the cash game and if you've around the industry long you've probably seen or heard the term optimal lineup in theory it is the lineup that should score the most amount of points on you know in a median situation uh that's the lineup that should score the most amount of points right so that's the lineup you should toss in there there are going to be several weeks throughout the season where what's supposed to happen actually does happen, right? The chalk is going to crush several weeks out of the season.

You do not want to be sitting on the sidelines there when your cash game lineup wins the 50-50, puts up all those points, and you double your money, and you would have 10x'd or more in some of the tournaments. So it's a lineup that's safe. It should be there right around the cash line and the floor every week. But there's absolutely no reason to not put it in the tournaments. And we've all been there, right? How often has it happened where your cash game just goes off,

your cash game lineup goes off, and your GPP is just sitting way down there at the bottom? Sia, anything you want to put here, a wrap-up with the cash game strategy? No, again, I just want to stress stress again, from a bankroll management standpoint, like definitely invest. I think people will hear us say, you know, 50% or more in cash games. And they'll be like, yeah, that sounds like a good advice, but I'm only going to do 20%. Because I think people's inclination is just to default towards, I want to win these big,

I want to be able to brag about these big contests that I took down and finished second place in or first place in. You really have to be disciplined and make sure that you commit. If you have a $50 bankroll, $100 bankroll, at least half of it should go to these 50-50s, especially some of these double ups that are 300, 400, 500 people deep. Because by the way, it's week one coming up and DraftKings and Fandle, they do a lot of promotions. There's a lot of people that are just like, oh, what's this? Let me do this for a while. And they might not have the requisite information. And it's really easy to get a leg up on those guys. So you can really build your bankroll. And I think this is

maybe where Mike was going sort of at the start of the show, because he filters down, I think, his cash games as the year goes. But it's really easy, I think, in the first three weeks to really take advantage of some of the inexperience that people will be bringing to the table in the first few weeks. Yeah, and I think you have to be realistic, too, with yourself. What are your goals for NFL DFS this season? Are you trying to just throw $20 in a Millie Maker every week? That's fine.

I mean, you just have to be realistic with yourself and realize more often than not, you're not going to win. But if you want to just slowly build up your bankroll, then maybe cash games are for you or playing a majority cash games with a few GPPs mixed in there. So just be realistic with yourself.

All right, let's take an early look at regular season week one. A few games that stand out to us. These odds are courtesy of caesar's sportsbook the first game is thursday september 9th that is the cowboys at the buccaneers currently has a total of 51 and a half we'll make for an awesome showdown slate by the way so mike we're we're looking forward to that one on the main slate we have four games with a total of 50 or higher as of now that is the cardinals at the titans the Steelers at the Bills, the Packers at the Saints.

Don't really understand how the Packers are only minus two and a half right now, but I don't know. Maybe that's just like a sucker bet in me or something. And then we have the Browns at your Kansas City Chiefs, Mike. We'll start with you here, Sio. A few games here that stand out on the slate, the main slate for you?

Yeah, a few of them. I mean, the ones that I think I'm targeting on the main slate for now, Zona and Tennessee. I mean, that's probably the game I'm in love with the most. That'll probably be a commonly played game. You've just got superstars on both sides of the ball, pretty weak defenses as far as I'm concerned. And that's part of the reason the total is 51 and a half. I mean, I truly think that over is coming in. I think we're going to see, and we could talk about stacks and onslaughts and things like that later. But I like that one. Minnesota at Cincinnati is interesting at a 48 point total. I kind of need to see how the preseason goes there in training camp and see

how Joe Burrow looks in maybe a preseason game with his knee, because I do think it'll take him a little bit more time than people think. But I do like that game. And the last game that I really am probably going to focus on is another obvious one, Cleveland at Kansas city. I think there's a lot of different ways to play that game. That might not be the game script that people are thinking about. See, did you look at the rundown beforehand? I did not.

Oh, because you stole my answers. Oh, don't. No, I mean, look, everyone's going to be on the Cardinals and Titans. I think that game could make for an absolute shootout. Both secondaries to me, I think, are going to be quite bad. Mike, any games that stand out to you? I mean, even going high up, but like any games that we're going to avoid, there's currently the two lowest totals.

Surprise, surprise. The Jets at the Panthers are 43 points, and the Broncos and Giants are at 42 and a half. Yeah, and you mentioned avoid. I actually don't think the Jets game is going to be a total avoid just because they've named Carter the starting running back. He's 4K. I think that he's going to be relevant in week one at that price point. I would say I'm right there with you. I think the most interesting for me is clearly going to be Minnesota and Cincinnati. I will be on the Joe Burrow train. I like Chase.

I like Higgins. The price points are beautiful over there on DraftKings. You compare them with Dalvin Cook, and it really, really, really opens up things nicely for that lineup. Obviously, we're still several weeks out. A lot can change at that point. But I think another game that is super interesting, for two reasons, actually.

There's two games. The Kansas City-Cleveland game is very interesting because the price points are some prohibitive. Obviously we know we'll have the value to make it work, but it's also an afternoon game and new players, players in general, typically like to target those earlier games. We want to get in. We want to watch our lineups. We want to sweat all that. We kind of prioritize some of those earlier teams subconsciously. Really? You see a lot of people do that. We kind of prioritize some of those earlier teams subconsciously, really. You see a lot of people do that. So that's interesting that that game is in the afternoon.

But as far as big totals, it's that Green Bay-New Orleans game. I don't see anyone talking about it. I don't see anyone mentioning it. We haven't talked about any of the plays in that game. There are a lot of points, a lot of fantasy points to go around in that one. Knowing that Kansas City and Cleveland is on the slate in that same time slot, I think it's going to be super, super interesting to see what those ownerships look like. And then as we dive into advanced strategy throughout the weeks leading in,

what I will be most looking forward to is having a lot of exposure to that Minnesota-Cincinnati game with one to two pieces from that Cleveland game. And then potentially, after we have some of that projected ownership come in on the day of, be looking to use the late swap functionality to get on to some of that Green Bay-New Orleans game based on the results and how well we're doing with that Minnesota-Cincinnati game early on that slate.

Some player salaries that are currently catching our eye. Week one, it's a long ways away. We'll start with DraftKings. Sia, any names that you're looking at? It could be any position that you have noticed so far. Yeah, I mean, just going down the line, if you're talking about value, I mean, we'll see what happens with Mike Davis. I do think it's his job. I think 5,400 against Philadelphia at home is probably a good spot for what is not just the running back, but a three down back in all likelihood in terms of he's going to get the volume on both ends of that. There's a couple of guys that I think I want to maybe speculate on as pivots at the running back position, like David Johnson, for example. I think there's a lot of really good value in that high 5K range with people that aren't named David Johnson.

I think that's an interesting thing to monitor there. Chase Edmonds is a guy, if that Tennessee game is as wide open as I think it will be. Now, Chase Edmonds isn't really good on the goal line, and James Conner's probably going to have that sort of goal line crack at it, if not Kyler Murray, by the way. But I do think Chase could get loose. And at 4,600, he's the type of guy that you could sneak into some sort of onslaught or some sort of stack,

and it'll make your lineup different, but you're still getting a piece of that game. So I don't know. Maybe I'll just keep it at the running backs there. Those are just a few guys that I thought popped for me that might not be super popular. Yeah, I think you hit it. Sub 6K, Antonio Gibson at 5,900.

It's not the greatest matchup against the chargers, but Gibson's currently a second round pick in season long. And there's a lot for him to still, uh, discover here as a player. I mean, they, they barely used him as a pass catcher last year, and that was his forte coming out of college. So he was an early down grinder last year. He was using the red zone. He's 5,900. He's someone that can get close to 20 touches in week one. Mike Davis stood out to me at that price. Chase Edmonds stood out. And Michael Carter, who you mentioned, Mike,

I mean, if he is legitimately the starter for the Jets, he is the stone minimum, 4K at Carolina. They allowed the most receptions to running backs last season. Anyone else that stands out to you, Mike, on DraftKings first? Yeah, on DraftKings, I mean, we kind of hinted at it earlier. Kyle Pitts, I believe 4,400. That stands out a lot. For me, T Higgins, Chase, both of them. It's obviously heavily on how we think Joe Burrow looks, but you know, in that game script that he's going to have, you know,

they're going to run a lot of plays. They're going to let him throw the ball often. I think you're going to see a lot of people moving that direction. T Higgins under 5k is just simply too cheap with a really competent quarterback in a game script where we can almost guarantee they're going to be trailing by seven to 10 points and throwing the football. So yeah, those are the ones that stand out the most for me. Yeah. I mean, piggybacking off Jamar Chase, I mentioned the rookies earlier that they're all pretty much underpriced. Kyle Pitts, 4,400 Jamar Chase, 4,800 Devante Smith. they're all pretty much underpriced. Kyle Pitts, 4,400. Jamar Chase, 4,800.

Devontae Smith, I want to see what happens because he's currently dealing with an MCL sprain, but I love Jalen Hurts at 6,400, and he's going up against the Falcons, and he was running all over the place down the stretch last season, and if Devontae Smith is that alpha wide receiver who I think he can be,

then he could be a great value at 4,500. Let's move over to FanDuel. Sia, any names on FanDuel that stood out to you early on? FanDuel, I didn't take a long look at, but honestly, a lot of the same guys I like, including those Eagles receivers. I mean, by the way, if Devontae Smith isn't playing, I mean, I don't think we're ready to throw out Jalen Rieger quite yet. And I think both Jalen Rieger, if we think Jalen Hurts is going to have a good game, both with his legs and with his arm, I think Jalen Rieger and Dallas Goddard are very much in play.

And by the way, I think Miles Sanders is in play as well. I don't really, I'm not very comfortable with how that game is going to go, but I think that Atlanta Philly game is going to have a lot of meat on the bone. So I think all of the, and let's keep in mind with Miles Sanders, he didn't play a full season, but he also didn't have his offensive line either. And yet he's, his yards per carry was actually really quite good in the games that he actually did play. So if the coaching staff uses him, like I hope they will, uh, yeah, he's kind of expensive, but I like him, but I like the receivers in that game as well. Yeah. And Fandle, there were a few mid tier players that stood out to me. Najee Harris, another rookie 6,500. They are a seven point dog. The Steelers are at the bill. So I don't love that

from a game flow perspective, but we know that the Steelers like to go with, uh, with that workhorse running back. So we could see 15 plus touches in his season debut and Terry McLaurin 6,900. I think he's an alpha wide receiver, tougher matchup against the chargers. But if Ryan Fitzpatrick is right and they have that connection going, I don't really think it matters who the matchup is for Terry McLaurin. Mike, anyone on Fandle that stood out to you? There's two guys and it's really, they're more expensive. Not on a site where you typically want to really target, you know, you're not taking advantage of the full point PPR, but it's going to be Stefan Diggs and Travis Kelsey. I don't find their price points being too prohibitive. I think there's going to be enough value there that I think they're going to be absolutely elite

values on the slate. I mean, looking at Stefan Diggs under eight K on FanDuel, um, I think that there's just simply enough value that's going to make it work. Uh, then same thing, uh, Chase Higgins. Uh, I think that these bangles wide receivers in that mid-range um you know again i'm obviously a little more bullish on joe burrow than some might be a lot of it is game script a lot of it is i think they're going to let them go out there and try and prove it and let them throw i think it's going to be a very fast pace just generally based on the game script that they're going to be faced with so i i'm pretty much all in there obviously we're still three or four weeks away, but I think

Chase Higgins and then that's going to leave a lot of room for Diggs and Travis Kelsey. Yeah, Joe Burrow, one of the names to pay attention to probably most throughout the NFL preseason. Let's see how he looks. Heard so far out of camp that he's looked a little bit rusty, but let's see what happens there with Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. That'll do it. Episode one is in the books. Some cash game strategy. Early look at week one for Mike and Sia. I am Frank.

Thank you all for listening and watching Fantasy Football today, DFS. We'll be back again on Thursday with GPP strategy and some preseason week one picks. See you then.