Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Strategy and Futures Discussion with Adam Levitan (Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast)

Episode Date: May 16, 2023

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Sia Nejad talks DFS strategy with special guest Adam Levitan! 0:30 - Establish the Run 2:30 - DFS Strategy  16:10 - Best Ball Strategy  23:27 - Futures Market 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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We are continuing our off-season series. We just had Derek Brown on the show. We had Andrew Erickson. And, you know, we're bringing the big guns. So we went over to establish the run, and we said, hey, you got anybody for us? And Adam Levitin, maybe reluctantly, but he raised his hand. Adam, how are you? Thanks for coming onto the show. Not reluctantly. Happy to be here. How's it going? It's going really well, actually. Now, I think most people know who you are, Adam.

Certainly anybody on Twitter or who's in the NFL DFS space certainly should know who you are and should know who Establish the Run is. But can you just give us a little bit of background on you, but establish the run as well, please? Yeah, sure. I, um, I've been working in, in fantasy since, uh, 2005, 2006, uh, or so, uh, worked for a Roto world in 2015 to help with Fantasy Labs, which was a DFS startup and also did an ambassador type deal with DraftKings. And then in 2019, started to establish The Run, where we're focused on football mostly, but also basketball and golf right now. And, uh, yeah, that's, uh, that's the long and short, well, the short of it, I would say. And you, I know you guys have a podcast cause I've listened to it. I know you guys do stuff on YouTube as well. And honestly, I kind of wanted to get into maybe at the end of the show, um, some of the interesting stuff that, that comes up on your podcast, because Adam, your podcast is a little different than everybody else's in at least one appreciable way.

So and for the record, I think people really enjoy that. Any NFL podcast. And this is just my opinion and like your take as well. It's not that I shouldn't say NFL, but any like DFS related podcasts, they tend to be good content, but sort of generic at the same time. And you do the listener questions at the end, which sort of sets yours apart. I'm just curious, like how you came up with that idea in the first place. Yeah. You know, I didn't intend to do it or anything. You know, I think that when I first started talking about playing DFS and the way I think about it and the way I think about gambling, because I was playing a lot of poker for a long time and had a long history or background in gambling. I think people found the way that I talked about it and thought about it eye-opening. And then I think about life the same way that I would break down what is the right way to gamble on something, what is the

right way to think about games and peer-to-peer. And I think about the same way with life. People think about things way too black and white, I think, in life. And the same thing with gambling. There's not a right and a wrong side. The Vikings minus seven, it might be good. And Vikings minus eight might be bad. And if I go into the refrigerator and the milk is two days expired, well, it's not, this is going to kill me or I'm going to be alive. There's a million different outcomes that are in there. There's 2% to kill me. It's 5% for me to throw up. It's 20% for me to be fine. It's whatever it is. And so I think people kind of connected with that. And so they started asking me all kinds of crazy life questions and yeah, I have fun with it. So

yeah, people definitely do enjoy it and it's fun for sure. I love it. So this is fantasy football today, DFS. It's an NFL DFS show. We do, you know, like I mentioned at the front end, we do some off season stuff and we'll, we'll be talking a lot, you know, over the next couple of months about best fall and, and just regular, you know, dynasty stuff and regular fantasy stuff, but DFS stuff too, because we know the schedule is already out. But I do want to ask you because, you know, you've been in this thing for longer than most people. I mean, you said 2005, 2006, that's certainly a really, really long time. What does a typical week look like for Adam Levitin, you know, from week one moving forward of the NFL season?

Yeah, I would say early in the week is most busy. I'm trying to review everything that happened. And so on Sunday, I have an eye on all the games for the whole day and every play from every game. I have an eye on it based either watching or, you know, kind of reading through the play by play on Monday, I will sit down and go through the usage of, of every player in every game that I thought was interesting. Did they line up in the slot? How many routes did they run? Uh, what was the ADOT on, on their targets? Why did they have a bad game? Why did they have a good game and try to figure that out through the numbers. So I spend almost all day Monday doing that.

Tuesday, record the solo podcast where I talk about the DFS and Week in Review and how I did and how I played and what I thought the results meant for takeaways going forward. Then also the listener questions. And then Evan Silva and I do the team by team pods where we go through every team and what we saw for the previous week on Tuesday and then Wednesday and Thursday are kind of lighter I'm trying to start thinking about the slate but really I'm just trying to get my head around the matchups for this week the upcoming week and any injury news that I can be in front of Friday is the day where I start to really start to think about, um, lineups and teams and what I think is going to happen in games and how teams are going to attack other teams Saturday. I try, I can't, it's hard. I try, I, you know, I have two

young kids and, and a wife and, and, you know, these, I have a lot of responsibility, um, to them and everything. And I try to take Saturday mostly off, but I'm still extremely distracted by, uh, my phone. And a lot of information is coming in on Saturday too, about who's going to play and who's not going to play. And so I try to stay on top of that. Yeah. And then Sunday I'm at my, I live out here in Denver in mountain time. So I'm actually at my desk usually by five mountain time, which is seven Eastern. And then, you know, take that straight up to lock and, and yeah, then try to enjoy the game. So yeah, it's, it's pretty, pretty fun. I would say I would be doing this stuff mostly anyways, even if it wasn't my job. Absolutely. I mean, that's the beauty of this is it is your job,

but I mean, it honestly, that sounds similar to my week and a lot of people who are kind of in this industry, it really starts like kind of Sunday night, Monday, and you just kind of roll with it from there. And you're right. Saturday's an important day because there's the call-ups, right. You know, you know, from the practice squad or what have you, and you can kind of glean some information from that. And then of course, Sunday, I'm curious your Sunday scramble. It sounds like you have to wake up really early. I'd like to know, like from a contest selection standpoint, are you like a, you know, are you an MME guy or are you both an MME guy? And like, you're, you're filling up all the big single entries, you're doing head to head matchups. I mean, we're going to talk about contest selection in a second. I'm just

curious. Are you on both sides of that? No, I don't, I don't MME at all. I mostly play cash. So I just, you know, I post a ton of head to heads, you know, a ton of them, you know, I'll place anywhere from 200 to 300 head to heads every week at buy-ins ranging from $5 to 5,000. And then, you know, I'll also play some of the 50-50s. And then tournaments, I usually make six to seven single entry or three max teams. And I put them in different contests. And I usually don't start building those until Sunday morning, those single entry teams. So let's talk about that because I think, you know, a lot of the people that listen to this show, Adam, are, they're not

new to DFS, but they're not, they don't spend, they don't pour a lot of their time into NFL DFS necessarily. Granted, we have a lot of listeners that are on the other side of it too, that are just super intensive to it. But there are some people who kind of want to learn from a contest selection standpoint, why somebody like yourself is playing so many cash games. And I think that really obviously comes down to bankroll management. And I think that's the thing that kind of stings people when they go through one week of the season or four weeks or an entire season, they kind of convince themselves that they're really not good at this because they're playing sort of all the wrong contests, or at least they're playing some of the wrong contests. So can you kind of break down

as kind of an authority on the subject, you know, what the breakdown is, but what should the breakdown be for people from a cash and a tournament standpoint? Yeah, I write an article about this every single year. It's actually still up. If you go to establish, run an NFL tab under evergreen, there'll be something called a Levitan contest selection. I actually go contest by contest of what I would suggest based on how much you want to play. Basically, uh, what people I think need to understand is that you can play very well in tournaments and lose for a week, a month, a year. And let me repeat that you can play well and lose for a week or month or year because it is so top heavy, especially the large field ones. It's so hard to beat 5,000, 10,000,

100,000, 200,000 people. And when all the money is up top, no matter how well you're playing, you're really unlikely to get there. And so I think for me, from a mental perspective, from me being engaged, from me wanting to play every week and get a bunch of money in, I can't, it's hard for me mentally to think I'm playing well and not win. If you play well in cash, yeah, there'll be some unlucky things. Yeah, there'll be some variants, but you're most likely to win if you game select well. Now, the head-to-head stuff is a nuanced conversation. I get a lot of action in head-to-head stuff is a nuanced conversation. I get a lot of action in head-to-head from people who, you know, there's Adam Levitan, the sex joke guy, you know,

I want to play him, you know, and so I get a lot more and better head-to-head action than most people. I still think that most head-to-head action is good if you're posting and getting scooped. In other words, you post in the lobby, someone comes and takes your game. If you have the right people blocked and you're at low enough stakes, I think that get those action. That action is likely to be good from a tournament perspective. I like playing small field stuff, you know, a hundred people field, a 500 people field at most a thousand people field because I'm, I'm so much more likely to get to the top. I don't have to hit the stone cold nuts. I can be contrarian and also still have really good teams, you know,

in stuff like the Millie maker. I mean, someone is going to have the absolute nuts. Some guy I won't even consider, you know, Tommy Tremble could score two touchdowns. And if you don't have them, you're dead, you know, and that's really not that interesting to me. It's more of a lotto. And also those contests are raked the highest. So, you know, higher stakes, smaller field is typically raked lower in the nine, 10, 11% range. Some of those lottos are raked in the 15%, 16% range. There's certainly a lot of dead teams in there, but it's really hard to overcome how top heavy it is and how much rake there is. So it's interesting because I think those that are somewhat new to DFS in general, NFL

or otherwise, if you're new, you're entering some of your bankroll, if not a lot of it in like that million dollar, the millionaire or whatever, millionaire maker, because you see like the pot of gold at the end. And you're not really like looking at the payout structure. You're not looking at what first place is getting versus what 10th place is getting, whether it's a 18 percent payout or 24 percent. Like those are obviously all things you look at. I'm just curious, did it take you a while to kind of come to that conclusion that you're playing the wrong contest? Or did you know going in? Because I think a lot of people are just really discouraged with what they're they're still playing in ones that are exclusively like 5,000 or more or 3,000 or more or 10,000 or more. How long did it take you to play with that discipline where you're going into the 100 person contest? Yeah, I mean, I think this is where having a gambling background helps. You know, I've been playing poker seriously since, uh, 2003, 2002. And so, I mean, in poker, it's just, it's easy to be, to see where the good games are. You know, you could be the 10th best player in the

world. If you're in a game with the nine, uh, the top nine players, you're going to lose a lot. And so that's really easy to see in poker. You walk into a room, you know, who the good players are. You see what games they're playing. You go play a different game, right? And like, that's just no brainer. DFS thing, I think is a little bit more complicated, but you start to get to know who the people are, you start to get to understand how what the rake is in contest. And so yeah, I think that it shouldn't be too hard for people to get up to speed quickly on game selection once they think about it right. I will say though that, you know, DFS can be fun, man. Like you don't have to play and grind like me and worry about every percent of rake and you can just play for fun. And I'm not here to tell

anyone that they shouldn't try to turn 20 into a million and have fun. You know, I think that that's the wrong way to go if you're trying to build a bankroll. But if you're just trying to have fun and throw 20 bucks at the million maker, I think that's great. You way to go if you're trying to build a bankroll. But if you're just trying to have fun and throw 20 bucks at the MillieMaker, I think that's great. So yeah, I hope that people have a distinction about what their goals are before they start registering. Absolutely. Yeah, exactly.

I mean, I think as long as you know what you're getting into when you put two entries into the MillieMaker, that's fine. But if you are expecting a return, then you don't know what you're getting into when you drop two entries into the Millie maker, um, that's fine. But if you are expecting a return, then you don't know what you're getting into when you drop two entries into the Millie maker. Um, can I ask you, cause you mentioned poker a couple of times. Have you played in the main event? Yeah, I've played, uh, God, I don't know, four or five times. Yes. Yeah. We get any cash in any of those. Yeah. I cash once. I actually, I got, I, I, that, that year that I cashed, I actually, uh, I really did have a lot of chips.

There was like 300 people left, maybe 400 people left, something like that. And I just, yeah, just punted it off a little bit, being a little bit too bluffy, I think, for how tight people were playing at that stage of the tournament. But yeah, it's always fun. You know, I don't play too many poker tournaments for a bunch of reasons. But yeah, that's one that's always really fun. If anybody has the ability or the experience to do it, I would recommend it as a life experience. It's definitely fun. So I played in 2018, the main event, and it was, you know, I have a poker background as well, but truly at that point in my life, I wasn't playing

a lot of poker. I don't currently either, but it was kind of one of those, you know, life events that I really wanted to, uh, to try actually cashed. Um, I finished 1,009th, which doesn't sound super cool. It's like, I got it. I got to day four. I was hoping I'd at least be inside the top 1,000, but, uh, ended up going heads up against somebody who had a ace King. I had fives and, uh, my stack was kind of low. It's funny though, what you mentioned about, and of course a King in the window. So I was immediately sunk, but it's funny what you mentioned about finding the right tournaments and who's good and who's not good. And just trying to, trying to fish around and have an understanding of like what tournament is right for you. Because I can tell you from those four days I played at the world series of poker,

there were tables that I was extremely intimidated by where I was like, man, they're not going to allow me to make any of my sort of sophomore, you know, basic moves. And there were tables where I was like, oh my gosh, I need to take advantage of this because it seems like nobody knows what they're doing. And the chip leader doesn't know what he's doing. And, you know, you can make those, you know, easy sort of like check raises and things of that nature. So I think that's good advice. I think, I don't think anybody should think, well, I don't play the MMEs. I'm going to play the single entry. And so I know I'm doing it right. I think you need to fish a little bit deeper and just find the tournaments that are right for you. And some of those are going to be

maybe a four person tournament. Maybe it's a 50 person tournament. Maybe it's a 500 person tournament, but the odds of you winning in those are so much greater than the 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, 100,000. So going into 2023, I just implore everybody to think about that. I have one more NFL DFS question before we get to some best ball stuff, Adam. But before we do that, let's take a break and hear a word from our partners. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one

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DFS, I am with Adam Levitin from Establish the Run. Adam, quick question for you on anything you've noticed over the, this is such a broad question, so forgive it, but over the last couple of years, has anything noticeably shifted with you with respect to your DFS strategy? Whereas, let's say three or four years ago, you were going into a single-entry contest with a few thousand people. You were going into it with a certain strategy. A few years later, just like in poker, a move can be dated, a move can be obsolete. And have you noticed anything, any trends maybe in the last year or so where you're like, okay, I got to play this game a little bit differently to stay ahead of the curve? Yeah, I think so. I think a big shift that I made in cash specifically was

leaning into ceiling. In other words, um, you know, when DFS first got popular, everybody played a cash in a style as conservative as you possibly could. You want the safest plays. You want the smallest range of outcomes. It's gotten to a point where I think it's tough enough now where you need to have guys in your lineup that can actually win you the week. And so I'm willing to take on more risk, you know, some more volatile wide receivers in cash, some more volatile tight ends in cash. And I think that's right. I also think that the way the quarterbacks have changed, you know, when I first started

playing DFS, I would like rarely spend more than $6,000 on a quarterback on draft games, like almost never because, God, they just weren't scoring that much. It was unpredictable. They were all bunched up. The way that NFL has changed now, you see guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes. I mean, not only is the quarterback position scoring more than every other position now, but they're also more predictable. In other words, their range of outcomes is actually smaller than people company priced at their position at other positions. So yeah, I think emphasizing quarterback, emphasizing ceiling have been two, I think, pretty big changes, I would say, in DFS. In terms of emphasizing ceiling, does that also mean

maybe a little bit more game stacking with your cash games? Yeah. I mean, we, you know, it's always changing. We have been looking at data from DraftKings for a long time. It was very profitable to do game stacks for a long time. In other words, a quarterback, two of his wide receivers and a wide receiver from the other team or running back to the other team or tight end from the other team, something like that. It was still profitable as of last year, but so many more people are doing it now that it's starting to erode a bit. So we're going over the data now, getting ready for the 2023 season. And we'll see if even last year was still profitable because again, I think depending on the field, I think a lot of people are playing that game stack style now in tournaments.

All right. Let's transition a bit. By the way, if anybody has a question in the chat, let us know. We do have a question. It's kind of an awkward question from Senior Football. Maybe it's not an awkward question. I'm going to ask you, Adam. I think he's asking you, as in Establish the Run, where are you going to get the numbers from, Adam?

CBS database question mark. So I guess I think you know what they're asking there. Yeah. from Adam, CBS database question mark. So I guess they're, I think you know what they're asking there. Yeah, no, I think that when I referred in the beginning of the show to what I look at on Mondays, a lot of it is PFF data. You know, it's not a special thing. It's not a special thing we have

with Establish and Run or anything. It's publicly available if you have a PFF subscription and they do a great job. You know, we have people that chart play by play for us for sports like XFL and USFL a great job you know we we have people that chart play by play for us for sports like xfl and usfl so like we know exactly how many routes each guy ran where he ran where he ran them where they lined up how often the slot etc etc but uh pff is already doing it

for nfl so yeah i would um not affiliate with them in any way but uh but yeah i love those guys and and it's a good product for sure all right right. Thanks for the question, Senor Football. Let's talk about best ball real quick. I assume Establish the Run is doing some best ball stuff really up until the season starts. And I know in our offseason series, that's kind of something that we're doing. I've listened to the last few shows you've done, Adam, and it sounds to me like you've got some best ball guys that you're kind of leaning on right now, just from a value standpoint. Any insight there?

Like maybe maybe just like two or three, like for those of us that are actually drafting best ball teams right now, maybe two or three guys that you're just value is screaming at you and you got to take it. Yeah, I mean, it depends what site you're playing on for best ball. You know, what's going on on underdog right now is very aggressive on rookies very aggressive on wide receivers it's a hard thing to counter from an individual player uh perspective certainly alexander madison i think is like the absolute smash right now one of the best uh picks that you can make i do not think Dalvin Cook will be back with the Vikings. Even if he is, I think Madison will be fine. They gave Madison $6.35 million guaranteed. Dalvin has a $14 million cap hit. They just cannot afford it. So something's going to give there with Dalvin.

I don't think enough people realize that. Joe Mixon is still going way too late, even though Samajit Pirine is gone. Joe Mixon has been going in the 60s, 70s. He was in the 80s at one point. I think Joe Mixon will settle in closer to August in the third round, assuming he's cleared up all this off-field stuff that he has going on, which right now the Bengals seem to think that he will be. So, yeah, I think the goal, if you're drafting best ball now, is to try to get guys on your team who will be going two, three, four rounds higher come August and September. And yeah,

I think if you understand contract stuff, if you understand usage stuff, you understand depth chart stuff, it's not that, that hard to do. I think, um, especially on DraftKings, if you're playing best ball, I think some of the ADPs there just, I just, it's unfathomable. I can't believe what people are doing. And I'll tell you, I'll tell everybody that's listening. Obviously you can listen to, uh, establish the runner or watch them on their YouTube channel as well. I need that. That's obviously for those of you that don't know, it's a podcast and they, they do, they have material on YouTube as well, but I know FFT DFS, we're going to be having a lot of best ball content over the next month or two. So if you're interested in any of that, whether it's underdog or otherwise,

we're going to have some guests really just to go, we're going to go position by position, talk about some of the values. And by the way, little, I mean, I don't know that this is inside knowledge. I feel kind of corny talking about it, but, um, Dalvin Cook's been working out my, at my gym here over the last week here in South Florida. So I, I, I mean, listen, a lot of the players are down here in South Florida this time of year. This is where they train like within like five miles of me. I it's, it's a long story. I don't want to give out locations, but some of the best players in the world, uh, work out five minutes for me, but the long and short of it is, um, it sounds like Dalvin

has been talking to Miami and hopefully, um, I don't know. Uh, that Dalvin thing was a real rumor for a while, but then they took Devon a chain in the draft. And so I don't know if that's going to go down anymore. But yeah, I thought that was a reasonable option for sure. Yeah, and A-chain certainly seemed to be like a sort of coach's favorite too. So yeah, maybe it's not going to happen. But I guess we got to probably wait till after June 1st where Dalvin's just going to get released. And then we'll kind of know where he's going. But yeah, I think the Alexander Madison play makes a ton of sense. Let's go to the futures market real quick. You know, one thing I like to

do, and I smashed the Eagles last year in the division market because Dallas was the favorite in the NFC East. And I can't remember the number I got, but they were at one point, they were like plus 180 or plus 210 or whatever it was. And the Cowboys were basically a heavy favorite. I think that's a really good place to go for the futures market. But I'm curious, is that the market? I know you have some futures bets down. Is that a market you look at? Are you looking at conference winners, Super Bowl winners, props? What is it? Yeah, everything. I think the softest market you can find this time of year is season-long player props. And we do cover that at ETR. but season-long player props, I mean, my God, it's like the softest betting market in the world. Unfortunately, you have to tie up money for 10, 11 months. And so

there's some cost of capital there where it's not as good with all this stuff. But yeah, I think season-long player props, if you're able to get money down, is an incredible market. The awards markets, I hit pretty hard. Offensive Rookie of the year, coach of the year, comeback player of the year, stuff like that division markets and, and super bowl, I think is, is harder markets to beat because they're a bit more liquid. And, um, you know, it's not, it's not as niche. There's a lot of sharp people looking at those markets, but I still think that they're beatable. I took, um, Seahawks to win the NFC West at plus 260. I took that on the 3rd of May. I think the Seahawks are legit good, and the 49ers are obviously very good, but they do not really have a quarterback.

So to get the Seahawks at plus 260, I think it is very good. I took the Falcons to win the NFC South at plus 380. I have Arthur Smith to be the coach of the year at 25 to one that kind of correlates with the Titans to win the NFC South. And then I did take a chain to be offensive rookie of the year at 40 to one and Kendrick Miller to be offensive rookie there at a hundred to one. I mean, these are long shots that are unlikely to hit, but I think they're more likely than the money line implies. In other words, at a hundred to one, you know, only has to hit a couple percent of the time for it to be a good bet. And so I think Kendrick Miller certainly had outs. Now it's down to like 40 to 1, though.

And so once someone bets a bunch of money on this stuff, it moves very, very fast. So yeah, you kind of got to be on it when the numbers open up. Right. A-chain really interesting. If he grabs that top spot for Miami, it's all systems go for sure. I wanted to ask you about a couple of division winners I kind of liked. One is, oh, by the way, let me ask you about the Seahawks real quick. I know you have them to win the NFC West, but the NFC conference, I think, is just really interesting because you're right. San Francisco, listen, stout defense. They really got all the skill position stuff.

But the quarterback is a gigantic question mark, obviously, you know, so they're out there. It's the, the Eagles are out there, but after that, it's just anybody's game. Is there anybody from a conference standpoint where you're, it might not be a bet, but anybody you're kind of leaning on, like, Hey, this, this team could surprise me. Is it the Seahawks? I believe they were like plus 1100 to win the NFC. It was somebody further down the line, like the New York Giants, for example. Yeah, no, I think Seahawks would be my favorite of those. I do think that Lions are sneaky, but everyone's on them. I was in the Lions last year and didn't quite get there.

I had a ton on Dan Campbell, coach of the year, didn't get there. I had a ton on Lions to make the playoffs, didn't get there, but now everyone's on them. So that's a bit frustrating. I think the bears are sneaky to outperform expectation. I love a lot of the moves that Ryan poles has made and they have completely revamped the roster. No one's giving them a chance. I think they have an outside sneaky chance to win that division. It's just hard for me to see a lot of these teams beating the Eagles. And you know, in, in, in the playoffs, it's one NFL game. I get it.

But man, the Eagles have like the best defensive line, the best offensive line, the best run game, best wide receivers, a very, very good quarterback. It's like really hard for me to see teams beating the Eagles right now. So yeah, like those Eagles Superbowl bets, you know, eight to one, nine to one on the Eagles. I don't know. You're going to get a much better number than that throughout the year. Last question when it comes to futures, I think the AFC East is really interesting with three potentially great teams in Miami, the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills. I think the Jets schedule is really interesting. The first six games of the year before their week seven by because it's, it is tough, but I'm curious, you know, the bills, I believe, were plus 130 when I checked

earlier this morning to win the AFC East. Any thought there? Obviously, the Jets are going to get some momentum from a betting standpoint. Does that drive some value over to the Bills from a betting standpoint? I think the Jets are a little bit overrated. I mean, Aaron Rodgers, despite I think playing well, is not the Aaron Rodgers that he used to be. And so, you know, at this age with this kind of strange attitude that Aaron Rodgers has a lot, it's a question mark how it's all going to fit together with the Jets. I think they'll be good, but the market has them, you know,

they're like real excited about the Jets. I thought Miami last year before Tua's injuries, I mean, Tua was playing at like an MVP level before he got hit with all those con injuries. I mean, Tua was playing at like an MVP level before he got hit with all those concussions. I like the Bills. There seems to be something missing offensively. I don't know if Dalton Kincaid and James Cook will be that for them, but I still like the Bills. I don't have a bet on that division yet. It's just a lot of good teams. Like you said, it's tough. Yeah. Yeah. And I do think

Kincaid is going to be that guy if he stays healthy, man, every time Utah was in trouble, I'm talking, we're talking Kincaid in college. Of course he bailed them out every single time he caught every single ball that was thrown his way. And he took a lot of hits while he was doing it. All right. We're going to take one more break and hear a word from our partners. And then I got some fun questions for Adam to close the show. We are on fantasy football today dfs i am here with adam levitan from establish the run adam before i get to to my final question i do want to ask you you guys cover at etr you cover not just football other sports too including the pga you know you got a pga pick you got yes a sneaky one whether it's dfs related, or maybe an outright that's maybe

longer than, I don't know, 20 to one or so. Of course, of course, of course, of course. Let's see. Let's see here. I think, well, the thing is that at these majors, you know, it's really hard for these Uber long shots to get there, but you can get insane numbers like i took 450 to 1 on brandon woo to win uh uh 300 to 1 on adrian moronk i think probably my favorite play of the long shots i took some taylor moore yeah at 200 to 1 and i think he's okay uh for dfs as well Yeah, me too. Probably our projections come out on Wednesday, tomorrow for DFS. And so I'll have a better idea then. But I suspect that we're going to have a pretty good projection on Adam Scott. So that's a guy for DFS that I think is interesting. So yeah, we'll see tomorrow for sure.

You can check our projections then. I just did a show literally right before I stumbled into this show, Adam. I did a show with Steve Scott, Patrick McDonald, and the coach at the Coach Rules. And his long shot actually was Adam Scott at 90 to 1, which really seemed like a long number. The longest shot I took was Terrell Hatton. And then I sprinkled a little bit on some shorter shots, including Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick, Jason Day. But anyway, I got to ask you about these listener questions one more time before we get out of here. So I'm just curious.

First of all, how long have you been doing? How long has that been happening on your show? It's just been a few years. Has it been well over that? I would say the listener questions started around 2016. OK, so like six to seven years. Easy here. Any this is an unfair question, and I'm sorry I didn't prep you for it.

Are there any that kind of stand, even if you don't remember a specific question, maybe you do, but are there any themes or any specific questions that stand out to you where you had to stop and like really think about it, or it was just this, this sort of like esoteric thing where you were like, man, I never thought of it like that. That's really interesting. I need to stop and have an introspective moment and think about some of these questions here. Yeah, for sure. For sure. And, you know, people send in, I ask for questions every week.

People send in, you know, 60 or 100 questions come in every week. I only pick eight or so to answer. So, you know, I pick ones that I think are funny or interesting or what will help a lot of people. So, you know, uh, keep it PG, keep it PG by the way. Okay. I know it can get racy on, on, uh, on your show. Yes. It gets very racy. Uh, so, you know, people, I think, um, some people go out of their way to like ask jokes, um, you know, like joke type questions and that's fine. You know, I, I love the joke type questions. Um, you know, obviously trying to, trying to have fun with it. Um, serious

questions. Like people ask me about stuff about like, Oh, how am I, how can I, uh, play DFS while I'm on my honeymoon or, or, you know, uh, my girlfriend doesn't like when I, I'm, uh, betting props and everything. And, you know, a lot of the relationship stuff, I think people, um, enjoy my take on. And so, you know, those are some, I think the best ones is the relationship ones. Um, because, uh, yeah, I can get racy and, and it can get, uh, funny for sure. But I think, you know, generally I think people like to hear relationship advice. Like didn't that woman, like dear Abby make like a whole career out of relationship advice or something like that. So

people love that stuff. Well, so that, that brings me to a question that I have for you that I'm going to ask you live. And it's this on Sunday in particular, listen, I'm a mess during NFL season. I'm just like, I've got a ton of shows just like you do. And I'm, I'm worried about DFS and player props and you name it. But Sundays in particular, like are not good for any family around me. I too have two young kids and a wife. And on Sundays, we pretty much have an understanding that my wife's, we're just not going to talk that much on that day until maybe after Sunday night football kicks off where I kind of have an understanding, at least of how well I did on the full slate and most of my player props

and things of that nature. My question for you is, how do you manage that? Because your Sundays sound busy too. Are you at a place in life where you're just not that stressed about it when it comes to like during the actual time, like the main slate is going down and all the games are happening where you can actually have like a normal Sunday life? Or do you have a sort of a dynamic with your family where it's like on Sundays, you know, dad's just going to be kind of like a little maybe colder? Yeah. I've been doing this so long and, you know, I had an office at a, you know, like a WeWork type thing when I lived in Philadelphia that I would go to for the

whole day Sunday. Now I have this office in my house and, uh, and yeah, I stay in here all day. I think that it's easier for me to rationalize. I'm not here to like sweat, you know, my action or, or whatever. I stay in the office and watch because, you know, it's important for my job to be able to help people and talk and understand what happened, um, on Sunday. And so, you know, I, I do a lot of that on Monday and Tuesday in terms of review. But I think watching what happens live, whether it's actual watching or play by play watching, I think makes a big difference. So, you know, that's certainly something. And people ask me all the time, you know, Adam, how do you get your, like the most common question is always,

Oh, Adam, how do you get your wife, girlfriend, whatever to, um, be okay with your, you know, football gambling or obsession or football, uh, betting, uh, on DFS or, or games or props or whatever. And I always say that, you know, the same thing, people don't like to hear it, but you just got to win. I mean, you know, like, uh, that's just it, you know, you just have to win because you cannot be, uh, someone who ignores their wife and their kids and their family, and then also lose like that's absolutely unacceptable. Uh, just win, you know, that's it. And everything will be fine. So, um, or may hopefully everything will be fine. So, you know, uh, I know that's harsh advice, but I really think that's the truth. And I know thousands of people have asked me

that question over the years. Well, I'll tell you what, if you want to win, keep watching Fantasy Football Today DFS, but also go over to Establish the Run and listen if you're not already to Adam Levitin on his podcast, because it's great material, both non-NFL and NFL stuff. So Adam, I can't thank you enough for coming on to the show.

Really appreciate your time. Before we let you go, anything coming up on Establish the Run that we should know about? Yeah, no, we have the major this week, PGA, and our projections will be up tomorrow for that. And we have a show tomorrow covering that if you're a golf subscriber. And then, yeah, we're deep in the football streets. We are all in on best ball right now in Dynasty and then we'll move to to the redraft stuff um kind of as july and august get closer so yeah it is the best the best time of year i think getting ready for this season i i enjoy more than the actual season i

would say i love it well that's adam levitan from etr my name is c and ajad from fft dfs we will be back with you in a couple of weeks, if not sooner with another guest. We'll probably be talking some NFL DFS, but certainly some best ball and some NFL news. Until then, my name is Sian Ajad. This is Fantasy Football Today DFS. We'll see you next time. weight loss it needs to be fast and sustainable noom glp1 starts at just 149 dollars and ships

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