Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 13 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast)

Episode Date: December 1, 2022

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 13 DFS contest over on Draftkings-  https://www....draftkings.com/draft/contest/137567236 Sia Nejad and Mike McClure are previewing the NFL DFS Week 13 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (2:45)- Steelers at Falcons (5:45)- Commanders at Giants (9:15)- Packers at Bears (14:50)- Jets at Vikings (20:15)- Browns at Texans (26:00)- Titans at Eagles (32:50)- Jags at Lions (39:20)- Broncos at Ravens (40:00)- Dolphins at Niners (45:00)- Seahawks at Rams (46:40)- Chiefs at Bengals (51:00)- Chargers at Raiders (57:31)- Mike’s TOP THREE at each position: (59:45)- Week 13 CHEAT SHEET 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football today. DFS, it's week 13. It's Thursday at 5 o'clock, which means you are here with us.
Starting point is 00:00:35 We appreciate you. I see you all in the chat already. It's me and it's Mike McClure. We do our game-by-game preview talking about our favorite DFS plays in each and every game. And then, of course, we close the show with our cheat sheet and Mike's top three at each position. I'm always so excited to do this show. Mike, how is it going today? I know you're knee-deep, if not neck-deep, in soccer and a bunch of other stuff.
Starting point is 00:00:57 How's that going for you? And are you excited about this Week 13 slate? I am excited about the Week 13 slate. I'm excited about every dfs slate though especially nfl they're just there's so few of them throughout the year relative to every other day on the calendar so i absolutely love those uh world cup is going great had a big bet on the u.s was able to cash that that was very nice uh looking forward to the next round of it but i'm looking forward to this nfl slate first and the showdown slate tonight,
Starting point is 00:01:25 uh, even more so maybe in the last, maybe minute or two of the show, we can touch on some of your, your showdown thoughts or just your game thoughts with this, uh, Bill's Patriots game. Absolutely. Awesome. Everybody stick around for that. Uh, and for the record, um, uh, the early edge people that will include me tonight at seven 30. We'll be breaking down the game, all our favorite props, and we're going to have some fun and some laughs there too. So early Edge 7.30 tonight. Mike, this is a pretty big slate. There's a lot of games here.
Starting point is 00:01:53 We only have two teams on a bye, and I feel like we should just get started. I'll just tell everybody that this is really back-loaded, this slate. What I mean by that is there's a lot of games, particularly in the 4 o'clock hour on Sunday for this Week 13 slate, that we're really going to need to dig into. And I think everybody who's listening to this podcast right now or watching this show right now has an idea of what those games are. So there will be a few games in the 1 o'clock slate,
Starting point is 00:02:18 in the 1 o'clock games, that we're going to kind of race through because we don't want to waste your time and we don't think there's a lot of players in those games that are going to be worthy of rostering so just fyi if we skip through a game a little faster than we normally do it's really because we're trying to get to some of the meat and potatoes if you will um mike thanks for being in here garrett uh duane james we see os thank you for being in here please hit the like button brian fletcher i see you as well hit the like button if you haven't already. We really appreciate you there. And for those of you that don't already know, it's Thursday. So what does that mean? Our contest is live. Our
Starting point is 00:02:51 FFT DFS contest is live. It's only 200 deep. So it does typically fill up by Friday or Saturday afternoon. That contest is always live during the Tuesday show as well. So we get that contest up and ready. It's up and ready now. It's in the YouTube description. If you're listening to the podcast, it is in the podcast description. Mike, we're going to start with a game that is going to be really underwhelming. This is a game we're going to kind of skip through so we can get to some of these other games. It's the Steelers plus one at the Atlanta Falcons. It's a 42-point total. Now, I don't want to undercut any of these games in a way, so I want to make sure I get your opinion here. Nadja Harris didn't practice today,
Starting point is 00:03:29 today being Thursday. So, I mean, I think there is the possibility that Jalen Warren, who for the record is 4,900 on DraftKings, or maybe Benny Snell, there's probably going to be some sort of committee scenario there. I'm not really interested in Kenny Pickett, but I can understand why somebody at 5,200 might be interested in him and maybe pairing in with Deontay or George Pickens. It's not for me. I think you could grab Pat Fryermuth from this game as just a singular piece and I'd be totally fine with that at 4,300. On the Atlanta side, I'm not really interested in anybody. I know Drake London is the guy and Olamide Seguias looks to be a guy that's getting even more targets, but I'm not playing that game with
Starting point is 00:04:09 Atlanta. Um, are you playing the game with Atlanta or with the Pittsburgh Steelers this week? Uh, probably not. Uh, their, their only scenario I could get to would be Warren at running back. Uh, I, in the situations where he has played, I've liked his involvement in the passing game. Uh, that that's really involvement in the passing game. That's really what I need to see. If we don't have a ton of touchdown equity, I want to play him here. If we don't have a situation where we don't have clarity on the New York Jets, say Michael Carter does end up playing for the Jets, I think that muddies the water a little bit,
Starting point is 00:04:40 and I'm more likely to go play someone like Warren. But as of right now, I don't think I'm going to get there, but he's the closest piece that I'm getting in this game. So if I heard you correctly, and we'll get to the Jets game when we get to the Jets game, but if Michael Carter is going to be out, which I expect him to be out, it sounds to me like you might be engaging with some of those backup running backs, if not one singularly, maybe Zonovan Knight, maybe James Robinson, maybe Ty Johnson. I think I know who you're going with, but just to tease the rest of the crowd here, let's wait until we get to that game. But I largely agree with you and forgive me if I
Starting point is 00:05:14 missed this, but Pat Fryer-Muth, is he going to be in your player pool? As of right now, no, because you guys know, like, look, last year I played Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes a lot. They're not on the main slates all the time this year. There's one guy that I do play a lot, and I'm playing him again this week. Okay, fair enough. Derek, we see you in the chat. Thank you. And Derek does have a comment here.
Starting point is 00:05:37 Steelers DST, most popular this week. Do you have an idea of maybe who the top maybe one or two defenses are in terms of ownership? I do. And it's not the Steelers at this point. Let me see here. Oh, excuse me. It is the Steelers at this point. For some reason, I was thinking Falcons. I'm getting the Falcons a little bit. Yes, the Steelers are going to be the most popular defense on DraftKings with their pricing there. They're only $2,600 on DraftKings. Okay, that certainly makes sense. Let's move on to a game that, to me, has very little appeal as well, although I do think it is maybe a little sneaky with some players here.
Starting point is 00:06:15 It's the Commanders giving 2.5 points. In other words, they're favored by 2.5 at the New York Giants. It's a 40.5-point total. So, again, last game was 42. This one's 40.5. These are very low totals and very low implied totals, just to give you some context there. Washington, 21.5.
Starting point is 00:06:31 The New York Giants, only 19. I think the only thing I like here, because I'm not going personally, Mike, I'm not going to Terry McClure, and I wasn't on him last week either. I don't have any faith in the Washington passing game if they're not being pushed. They're not going to be chucking it down the field unless they have to. So for me, if Antonio Gibson continues to mispractice, which he did today, by the way, it's Thursday today, and Antonio Gibson did mispractice, I'm not 100% sure why.
Starting point is 00:06:58 He was limited yesterday and outright mispracticed today. This could be a non-injury-related thing. But maybe if he misses another practice or if he's not playing on Sunday, maybe Brian Robinson is interesting, even though he doesn't get much by way of, of catches on the other side of the ball, you know, Saquon, it's just not a good matchup. But then again, like, you know, if he's not going to be owned because it's such a allegedly bad matchup, does he make, does that make him playable? I think it makes him playable in tournaments. If you're playing several lineups, I like it quite a bit. And the reason I'll say I like it quite a bit is because one,
Starting point is 00:07:32 there is a piece I'm going to use in this game. The Giants defense is one that's projecting really well for me personally. A lot of it has to do with overall ownership and just the overall low scoring nature of this matchup at least that's the way we're projecting it so uh i do like saquon in that it would be relatively correlated with that um as far as ownership i will tell you i don't see a scenario where saquon even hits five percent on this week i think two to three percent max i think that's what makes him particularly appealing. I mean, this Washington defense is very good,
Starting point is 00:08:07 but I do want to point out some things that we need to monitor as it pertains to the Giants. They are getting some offensive linemen back. They are getting some help back. It looks like Evan Neal had a full practice today, but there's a couple of other guys that the Giants are waiting on. And if they get those upgrades on their offensive line, I mean, it doesn't take much
Starting point is 00:08:25 for Saquon to break a run, even against a good rush defense. So I think Mike, if he ends up being low owned, which on this slate, it really looks like he's going, that's going to hold. Um, it may like, I'm, I'm not really interested in playing him outside of that. So I think from an ownership standpoint, we know Barkley can, can break any, any run at any time. We know he's going to get the rushing attempts. Let me ask you before we get away from this game, I believe Darius Slayton mispracticed. I probably wouldn't be playing him anyway, even though his price at 5,100 is appealing. Richie James at 3,800, is he a guy, because we're desperate to find value, especially if we're playing like Mahomes, Kelsey stacks, or Justin Herbert to Eckler, you know, or Keenan or whatever it is,
Starting point is 00:09:06 are guys like Richie James in the conversation or is there value in so many other places at that receiver position? You're not worried about playing Richie James. I'm not worried about playing Richie James at this point. Uh, I think I would really prefer someone like Richie James if it were a bring back. And I was really interested in just the overall game environment. Not the case here. So I'm going to be out on everything except for the Giants defense and a little asterisk next to Saquon Barkley because he does project in a way that I might be able to get to him here.
Starting point is 00:09:41 Okay, this next game we have a lot of questions about. Well, at, we have a lot of questions about, or at least I have a lot of questions about, I think everybody does. It's not a game that I think people are super interested in playing. Of course, it's the Green Bay Packers at the Chicago Bears. It's a 43 and a half point total Green Bay favored by five and a half. So there are situations in Mike, I have a feeling you're going to like some things in this game. If things play out the way that, that they could, we don't know, like Mike, do you game if things play out the way that they could. We don't know. Mike, do you know if Aaron Rodgers is playing this week?
Starting point is 00:10:09 What's your take there? He says he is. Yeah, he says he is. I have to believe that he will. I'm looking to see if there's any additional news. Yeah. I checked myself, and I didn't see additional news i know he had he was quoted as saying he can understand maybe like sitting out some of these games and giving jordan love a chance but then to your point i know earlier in the week he also said he's ready to go and he wants to play
Starting point is 00:10:36 yeah so my read on it is he plays here um so they're they're mathematically still alive right so i don't see the scenario in which they make the change until they are mathematically eliminated. They, I believe, would be mathematically eliminated with another loss almost. So it's a must-win game for them. But I think that Rodgers gets to come in and play, assuming that he is healthy enough and wants to. I clearly think he wants to still.
Starting point is 00:11:03 He's going to play until they lose. And then once they lose another game, whether it's he leaves early with an injury, whatever it may be, at that point, I would expect to see Jordan Love. But I don't anticipate it being this week. Mike, can I tell you what's really going on is that the last thing Aaron Rodgers wants is for Jordan Love to come in in the best matchup that Jordan Love could possibly come in on because then all of a sudden people are going to be like oh wow well maybe we should have turned the page a year ago or maybe we should turn the page at the end of this year and figure out something with Aaron Rodgers now I don't think a lot of people will be clamoring for that I think most people kind of understand what Jordan Love is as it relates to Aaron Rodgers, but this is a game, and I'm looking at Aaron Rodgers' price
Starting point is 00:11:50 at 5,800, where he could absolutely go off and kind of, this can be his swan song at least for this season, and then he just hands it over to Jordan Love after he tosses three touchdowns in 315 yards to guys like Christian Watson, who are 5,200, Randall Cobb, 4,200, Alan Lazard, 5,400. Doesn't this seem like a pretty good setup for Aaron Rodgers? Oh, it definitely does. The question is just can he grip the ball right and everything else. But other than that, yeah, it's potentially one that I'm going to be interested in.
Starting point is 00:12:22 Having Justin Fields in there to be able to push this game makes it way, way more interesting to me. So not a core lineup piece, but definitely tournament lineups. I have some interest there. And you did bring up Justin Fields. I do want to point out, he looks like he's on track to play. He got a full practice in on Thursday. That tells me most of what I need to know. Now, to me, I still am not interested in playing Justin Fields with a potential shoulder injury,
Starting point is 00:12:51 with some maybe curtailing of the running that we know Justin Fields can engage in. His price is $7,400. So that makes, I mean, it would be one thing if he was $6,100 or Aaron Rodgers price. But is Justin Fields in your player pool or no? He's not. You know, look, you know, he's finally priced up where I basically was begging for him to be priced, uh, you know, four weeks ago. Right. And he's finally there, uh, not playable in my opinion at the spot. So
Starting point is 00:13:15 no Justin Fields this week, before we get to the next game, I think it's worth talking about some of these receivers that are in a really good price range. And let's just assume for the sake of this argument that Justin Fields is playing and that Aaron Rodgers is playing. Although I don't know that it matters as much to me on the Green Bay side, whether it's Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love, at least as it pertains to the value of these receivers. Let me start with the Packers. Christian Watson at 5,200. Yes or no? No. Randall Cobb at 4,200. Yes or no? No. Alan Lazard 5,400. Yes or no? I mean, I hate to be a no across the board, but I, I may be after looking at them individually, I may not like it as much as I thought I would. Um, I'll say no again, just because, uh, there are still other teams that I like this week.
Starting point is 00:14:06 Let me ask you this. If somebody wanted to come in and do a stack with the Packers and they were desperate in one of their lineups to play Aaron Rodgers at 5,800 on DraftKings, of those three guys I mentioned, who was the guy that would lead your charge in terms of a stack? Let's see. I'll say, oh man, it sounds nuts, but Randall Cobb. I think that he still trusts him. I still think that it's a good matchup for slot receivers. Yeah, it would probably be Cobb
Starting point is 00:14:36 and mostly because he's so cheap. Yeah, I mean, that right there is 10,000 total. So you got 40,000 left after your stack with Randall Cobb and Aaron Rogers. So that makes a lot of sense real quick on the bear side, because I think people are interested in some of these value guys, at least in terms of taking some dart throws, whether that's a good idea or not, it's a different question, but chase Claypool at 3,800 Byron Pringle at 3,000. We know that Darnell Mooney is out for the season. Any of those guys interesting at that price?
Starting point is 00:15:04 It's gotta be Chase Claypool for me, just the overall raw talent. Some of the throws heading that direction may not be super accurate, but he is a ridiculous athlete and makes the most out of what he's given a lot of times. So at his current price point, I think Claypool's the guy I would go for. Okay, fair enough. Let's go to the Jets and the Minnesota Vikings. Now, speaking of value-wide receivers, I think I want to start there because, first of all, I really want to get your opinion on Mike White. We know you were on him last week.
Starting point is 00:15:34 You told everybody you were going to be on him on our Thursday show last week, and he absolutely shined just like you thought he would. I still like this matchup against Minnesota's secondary. They can absolutely be exposed, whether it's by Mike White or really any other quarterback, including Mac Jones last week. I think the really big-time value play that's going to be really chalky, of course, is Garrett Wilson at 5,300. First of all, I assume you like Garrett Wilson.
Starting point is 00:15:59 Answer that question for me. But second of all, Mike White, is this a stack that is in play for you? Is it potentially a top-three stack for you? It is a top-three stack for me. But second of all, Mike White, is this a stack that is in play for you? Is it potentially a top three stack for you? It is a top three stack for me. I do like Garrett Wilson. As far as do you have to stack Garrett Wilson with Mike White? I don't think you have to. I think it's a fine stack. Mike White is someone I'm very comfortable stacking a running back with as well, just because I still think he's going to hit the running back in the passing game quite a bit. So I do like him. Mike White is definitely in the player pool. He's going to be one of the three or four quarterbacks that I end up using this week. You've got some natural bringbacks on the other side that have a lot of upside. That's something generally that we like
Starting point is 00:16:37 to see. So I do like the Jets. I do like Mike White. I'm glad they made the quarterback change. He's just got so much more upside in this offense. They're just a very legit team at this point. So yes, I like them. Okay. And I'm reading, I'm kind of going a little out of turn here, but I am reading that Debo Samuel did not practice on Thursday, but that Christian McCaffrey did practice. We'll get to that game, but I just wanted to throw that out for everybody to hear. Any other, so you teased it a little bit at the running back position. It sounds to me like Zonovan Knight might be a guy that you're willing to play at 4,600. Talk about that and talk about whether there are any other Jets or Vikings, frankly, that you're willing to play in this game. Yeah, look, I like Knight. I
Starting point is 00:17:22 think he did a lot with the opportunity that he had, and I think it probably earned him a few more snaps regardless of who's on the field and who's active. Um, so at this price point, I think he's got a ton of upside. I love seeing the work in the receiving game. Um, you know, he did lose a fumble. I don't think it's a massive, massive issue. Uh, so as of right now, if Michael Carter does not play, Zonovan Knight is someone who's going to be, I think one very popular, but two, someone I'm going to be playing quite a bit still at this point. Absolutely. I think we're going to have to wait and hear some more clarity with that running back room as it specifically with respect to Michael Carter, but Zonovan Knight
Starting point is 00:18:00 at 4,600 seems like a guy that's worthy of taking a chance on. We do have a question from that Bears game. Cole Komet, with Justin Fields being the quarterback, is he viable, asks Garrett Pokella. I would say yes, just because he's under $4,000. That's kind of the threshold that I'm looking for. He's got more upside when Fields is in there just because of the way Fields can extend plays and hit him and typically happens down in the red zone as well. So I will say yes, Cole Komet is viable. Yeah, I totally agree with that. There's not a lot of tight ends I like this week and Cole Komet's going to be one of them, especially with Justin Fields back. So Garrett, good question
Starting point is 00:18:38 there. And Garrett, if you haven't already hit the like button, we got a lot of people watching only about 40 likes. Let's try to get up to a hundred before we give out Mike's top three at each position. Okay. The Viking side real quick before we move on anybody on the Viking side that you like, whether it be Dalvin cook or Justin Jefferson or TJ Hawkinson. I think Hawkinson is interesting just because tight end is relatively weak. Um, Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL. I think that to me, it's pretty clear at this point. So I like him. The issue with Justin Jefferson is always the price point and finding a way to get him
Starting point is 00:19:15 in there. Fortunately here, if you're playing Mike White, maybe the lineup overall is cheap enough that you can get him in there without sacrificing a ton. That's typically the most difficult part about playing Justin Jefferson, but I do like him. Hawkinson's a fine bring back. I'm not at this moment all in on stacking the game. However, I will definitely have pieces. And before we move on to Cleveland at Houston, I do want to ask you to look at ownership for Justin Jefferson. How is that projecting? Because I would as 10 to 12, just above 10%. The reason for that is I think that more jets end up working their way into
Starting point is 00:20:10 lineups. We know that people are going to play Garrett Wilson, things like that. So I think that that's going to bump it up. I think that if they weren't playing the jets and it was just another matchup on paper about the same, I think that number would be 5% to 6%. I totally agree because at first I thought we were looking at 5% to 6%, but I think if you play Garrett Wilson, you can justify the skinny stack and taking an overpriced, or not an overpriced, a highly priced Justin Jefferson. And especially if you do the stack of Mike White and Garrett Wilson, I think the natural thing for people to do is bring it back with Justin Jefferson. So I certainly endorse that play as well.
Starting point is 00:20:46 I'll probably have a tournament lineup that has that exact build. So let's move on to Cleveland at Houston. Now we're starting to get into totals that are a little bit more attractive. I don't know how attractive this game is. Cleveland is favored by seven points going into Houston. Of course, this is the Deshaun Watson game. He is going back to Houston and this is his first game back coming off suspension. I don't really have any interest in, by the way, Cleveland's favored by seven. The total is 46 and a half. The implied point total for Cleveland is
Starting point is 00:21:13 26.75. That's pretty high. So to me, Mike, this is a Nick Chubb game and it's pretty obviously a Nick Chubb game. Is there any other way to construe this? And are guys like Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Dave Njoku, or even Deshaun Watson playable on that side of the ball? I think they're playable. Chubb is fine. I don't hate it. I don't love it. I think that this game still features Deshaun Watson a little bit, maybe not even necessarily all the way through the 20s. They might get him more looks in the red zone. I think that the biggest thing that they could do at this point with him is to get him a touchdown or two, give him a lot more confidence, welcome him with a game that is likely going to be in hand for them. I think that that's what we see, honestly.
Starting point is 00:22:00 I think that they give Watson the opportunity to score a little bit here in this game. At his current price point, he's very close to being someone that I want to play in DFS this week. It's interesting. I don't think a lot of people are going to play him. I'm speculating that he still has the upside for 40 to 50 rushing yards in this game. If you get 40 to 50 rushing yards, he gets to run one of those TDs in the red zone. Remember, this offense will change quite a bit in the red zone when he has the ability to run. First of all, I expect the red zone efficiency to go up quite a bit.
Starting point is 00:22:33 If he gets to the 40 to 50 yards rushing, one rushing touchdown, any sort of mediocre day passing, and he's not killing you at the salary, but any sort of game script where the game's remotely competitive and they're pushed, I think he could have a huge day here. So I do like him. I would probably play him naked. I don't think I would play him with anyone. The only thing I could get to stacking-wise would be David Njoku, I believe, mispracticed today. Can we look up, Zach, can you pull up Amari Cooper's game log? Because to me, this seems like a game that sets up well for some easy completions from Deshaun Watson to Amari Cooper, who does like to run a lot of those shorter area targets relative to like Donovan Peoples-Jones, for example.
Starting point is 00:23:15 And we see with Jacoby Brissett, week 12, he had 12 targets. Week 11, 12 targets. Then we had a blip on the radar with, um, with Miami, but it's basically been between seven and 12 targets with that one off game against Miami where he has just been getting peppered. And I just wonder if this, like, I don't think people are going to be playing Deshaun Watson in general, but I also don't think they're going to be playing Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper stacks against Houston. I mean, isn't it possible that we could get Amari Cooper with two touchdowns and in a hundred yards? Oh, it's incredibly possible that we could get Amari Cooper with two touchdowns and 100 yards? Oh, it's incredibly possible.
Starting point is 00:23:47 Yeah, it's very, very, very possible. I'm terrified of it, honestly, because I don't know that I'm going to get to it personally. But I do think that it could happen and it could win someone a lot of money this week. With that said, if somebody was going to do that stack, and we are the kings, we're the Kings of two things, Mike, we're the Kings of, well, I should say you are, um, we're the Kings of two tight ends. We were doing that before it was cool. And we are also the Kings of, Hey, let's not force a run back here. And in the Houston Texans case, boy, is it hard to force a run back because they are just so inept, whether it's Kyle Allen or Davis mills, this team is a, is a complete mess, uh, particularly at the offensive line, just on so inept, whether it's Kyle Allen or Davis Mills. This team is a complete mess, particularly at the offensive line,
Starting point is 00:24:26 just on offense in general, which is why Damian Pierce is not even in the conversation for me. Listen, if you want to play him at 5,900, best of luck. It could absolutely work out against Cleveland's rush defense. In fact, maybe you have an opinion on this. Maybe it's good play. But my question for you was going to be, Brandon Cooks at a flat 5K, Nico Collins at 4,200.
Starting point is 00:24:45 It's a 46.5 point total. It's almost 20 points implied for Houston. But my question for you was going to be Brandon cooks at a flat five K Nico Collins at 4,200. It's a 46 and a half point total. It's almost 20 points implied for Houston. Somebody's got to get those points. Somebody's got to get the points. I'm not playing Damian Pierce. So my bring back would be Nico Collins. The guy always seems to get there some way, shape or form. Doesn't matter if it's real late fourth quarter.
Starting point is 00:25:02 You know, he's consistently having 40 to 60 yards. He got in the end zone in week 10. Totally could see a scenario where he's racking up 40 yards in the final quarter of this game and potentially lands in the end zone late when the game's well within hand. So I do like Nico Collins a little bit at 4,200. And I will say this.
Starting point is 00:25:21 Don't underestimate the idea that the Houston Texans are going to play their best game in the last month or two this particular week. They know what's going on. They know that Deshaun is back. They know that all eyes are going to be on Deshaun Watson. They know that it's a homecoming. I mean, listen, there's a lot of stuff in the background that we don't need to address on this particular show. But what all that amounts to is a lot of eyes being on this particular game. So if Houston were to show up and have a competitive game, it's going to be this game.
Starting point is 00:25:55 And so I'm not saying that Cleveland's going to cover or that they're not going to cover. But I do think Cleveland's going to get pushed a little bit harder than the Texans have been pushing teams over the last three, four or five weeks. So that's definitely something to consider when you're considering a run back and when you're considering stacking this game or skinny stacking this game, however you want to play it. I think Houston shows up for this one. Mike, any comments there before we move on to Titans and the Eagles? No, I think this game could be relatively competitive, very high scoring. I do think that the Texans can keep up for a little bit here. Okay. Let's move on to the Titans.
Starting point is 00:26:30 They're plus five and a half at the Eagles. It's a 44 and a half point total. You know, this one's interesting. I think some people will be interested in Hertz, especially after watching him just dominate on the ground against Green Bay on national television. Of course, I'm not playing Hertz this week, Mike, so I'm really curious what your opinion is. He's just not generating enough offense with his arm. And I personally, when it comes to Jalen Hurts, I don't know that I want to rely on his legs,
Starting point is 00:26:54 especially against the Titans, who I just think are a very buttoned-up team, particularly defensively. They're playing better both in the secondary and against the run. I think this is a pretty solid Titans team. So I don't think I want to play with her. I don't want to play with Devontae Smith or A.J. Brown. And I don't want to play Derrick Henry, especially because it looks like Jordan Davis is going to be back.
Starting point is 00:27:14 He practiced today. And if he's back on Sunday, this all of a sudden becomes a Philly rush defense that's actually pretty good as opposed to pretty bad. So with all that said, this one at a 44 and a half point total, it's mostly a stay away for me. What say you? Yeah, I like Derrick Henry personally still. We'll see if Davis ends up giving it a go. I've not been impressed with the Eagles defense so far. At this point, this projects as a spot where Derrick Henry should find some success. The real upside on Henry is just
Starting point is 00:27:45 going to be a matter of, does he get the rushing touchdowns or not? I think he's comfortably going to have his 80 plus yards in this game. It's just going to come down to the red zone. Everything else in the game though, I, I'm again, I'm very worried about the Eagles defense. They've surrendered over 30 points, I believe in what back-to-back home games, not necessarily good. These are the type of games where Tennessee and Mike Frabel has this team dialed up to always seem to be really, really competitive. I don't think it's massive shootout competitive.
Starting point is 00:28:15 I think it's just competitive physical football game. AJ Brown has steadily been losing work to Devante Smith. Some of that, we kind of speculated that AJ was actually really hurt a couple weeks ago. We'll see if that's actually the case and he's playing through it or what's going on there. A lot of people are going to, like, AJ Brown will be over-owned in this game simply due to the revenge narrative of playing Tennessee. So I'm not going to go necessarily play something like that.
Starting point is 00:28:43 If you want to do something like that, I would simply recommend A.J. Brown anytime touchdown bet or potentially a yardage prop bet, and that's about it. Yeah, I don't find myself really on anything in this game outside of Derrick Henry. Yeah, I will say this. If I end up throwing a lineup in that has Jalen Hurts, it's going to be Jalen Hurts to Devontae Smith because his target share has really, really picked up. And we know he can take the top off the defense. And this Tennessee secondary has been playing better. But you're right.
Starting point is 00:29:13 I think a lot of the focus will be on A.J. Brown. And, of course, Devontae can get behind this defense. So I think a Hurts-Devontae stack will be relatively contrarian. So I kind of like that as far as bringbacks. I do want to ask you about Traylon Burks at 4,600. Is he a guy that you're interested in in the Week 13 slate? He has popped up in a few lineups. I've run some early numbers on it.
Starting point is 00:29:35 Everything is incredibly encouraging the last two weeks. He's looked fantastic the last two weeks. Look, I think that if there were a game for Tennessee to take a few additional shots that way and kind of say, hey, yeah, we actually don't, maybe we don't need A.J. Brown, right? There might be one or two opportunities in this game where they hit him with something very specific. A.J.'s got the game circled on the other side as well like i i think that trailing is fine he's not a must play far from a must play um but not someone that i've excluded from the player pool just not someone that's like actively showing up in lineups like derrick henry is okay and it's
Starting point is 00:30:19 funny you took the words right out of swoop's mouth swoop says brown has this game circled well that's true but i think think the Titans know that too. So you always want to be a little careful with that narrative. Garrett Pokella has, and I hope I'm pronouncing your name right, Garrett. You know, he asks about Quez as just a value punt play at 3,800. I do want to mention Elijah, who was on the solo pod with me on Tuesday. Elijah Lipkin, who of course donated to St. Jude during our draft a couple months back. He was excellent on the show, by the way, Mike, this guy was so great,
Starting point is 00:30:51 but he also mentioned Quez Watkins among other value receivers. Quez isn't going to make my player pool. Is he a guy that you'd consider as a flyer? Probably not. Unless you just absolutely love Derek Henry or Jalen hurts. You have to love one of those two players, in my opinion. You have to think it's a huge Derrick Henry day, which means they're throwing a ton to play catch up. Because remember, this Eagles offense still does want to run the football quite a bit. So that's the scenario that I would be okay with, Quez, is that you just absolutely love Derrick Henry.
Starting point is 00:31:21 You think he smashes 150 yards, two touchdowns, a game that's competitive or that they're winning. Um, then I think you could play quiz on his own or with, with Jalen hurts, but the box score is beautiful. You have to realize he had two touchdowns, uh, on seven total targets in the last two games. Uh, the volume is just not there. Okay. We're going to move along to Jacksonville and Detroit, but before we do that, we are going to hear a message from our partners. Did you know 66% of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate? Don't let your project become part of this statistic. A quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime, financial
Starting point is 00:32:05 penalties, and keep you safe. Don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money. Click before you dig. Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. And we are back. My name is Sian Najad. That right there is Mike McClure. We have a lot of people watching. So if you haven't already, I see it was Chris Gillantine. He says, hit those likes, fam.
Starting point is 00:32:36 We like to try to get to 100 likes before we give out Mike's top three at each position. And if we get to 100 likes early, we'll just stop the show in the middle of whatever game we're doing and we'll give out the top three early. So, again, a lot of people watching. If you can't see the like button, just pull down the chat and then hit the like button and then put the chat back up. It certainly helps the show with respect to the YouTube algorithm and all that fun stuff. Speaking of fun stuff, Mike, I didn't you know, it's so weird, right? Because this is the game I probably like the most. And it's just two terrible teams.
Starting point is 00:33:09 Jacksonville Jaguars are at the Detroit Lions. It's a 51 and a half point total. Detroit is now favored by one. As of yesterday, Jacksonville was favored by one, one and a half. This is flipped like I anticipated that it would. The implied totals for both of these teams, as you might expect in a competitive game, is similar. And it's also high. So Detroit 26.25, Jacksonville 25.25. This is exactly what we want for so many different reasons. One is because we're going to have a back and forth game. We're going to have a lot of points. The game is in Detroit, a curated environment,
Starting point is 00:33:38 but also we get a lot of cheap options here, particularly when it comes to our stacks and our quarterbacks. So let me ask you, Mike, and I do want to get the Travis Etienne thing out of the way. He did have a limited practice on Thursday. And according to him, again, according to him, not his coaches, he is playing on Sunday. If you were tracking what happened last week, he left the game. But it sounds like he could have come back in the game because he's such a prize. He's so valued by the franchise. They just didn't put him back in the game because foot injuries scare the Jacksonville
Starting point is 00:34:08 Jaguars like they should. Granted, it was a different foot. With all that said, it does look like Travis Etienne is going to play. I don't think you're going to get any value running backs to play in this game. But Mike, there's so much value on Trevor Lawrence. To me, there's so much value on Christian Kirk at 6,300. There's so much value on Amon Ross St. Brown at 7,100. And then you got Zay Jones at 4,900.
Starting point is 00:34:28 Kalief Raymond, if you want to go back there at 3,900. I mean, it feels like just like a Christmas special. But again, it's Detroit and Jacksonville at the end of the day. How much do you love this game as much as I do? And are you stacking this game? I like the game. I don't love it as much as you. I will definitely have pieces from the game.
Starting point is 00:34:48 I can't fault you for wanting to play guys like Trevor Lawrence. He was fantastic last week. Even better matchup, controlled environment in the dome, like you said. A game where it should really go back and forth. So I like it a lot. Travis Etienne, he's a near must play if he's actually playing. He says he's playing. We're going to say that he's playing until then.
Starting point is 00:35:09 I think that he's someone that's got to be in your player pool at the bare minimum. He will be in pretty much every lineup for me if he is active and playing. And then all the receivers, you know, like 20 minutes ago, 15 minutes ago, you started asking me because I said, I might like Green Bay a little bit. And you asked me, do you like him? Do you like him? Do you like him? I started answering no, because I like all of the guys in this game just a little bit better. Right. So it's literally all of them on both sides, even DJ shark. I like him better. Um, there are a number of options in this game. I like the game environment overall a lot better.
Starting point is 00:35:42 So that is why, you know, I thought that I might like the Packers a little bit. I really don't. It's because of this game. Let me ask you about roster construction. If Travis Etienne is playing in this game, and let's say I want to do a Trevor Lawrence stack and I want to do it with Christian Kirk, you're okay with doing it with Christian, whatever, Christian Kirk or Zay Jones. Let's say just, I want to pick one of those two guys.
Starting point is 00:36:04 You're okay with the stack with Trevor Lawrence, one of those receivers, and Travis Etienne, or you'd rather not go that route? I'm more than okay with it, yeah. I basically want to bet on capturing all the Jacksonville offensive points. You hope you identify which receiver maybe has two touchdowns. You get the ground game with Travis Etienne. You get the passing game.
Starting point is 00:36:22 You have a running back in Etienne who is involved in the passing game. Yeah, I think that this definitely qualifies as a situation where you can stack QB running back wide receiver. And I do want to point out that Zay Jones has been an absolute target monster over the last couple of games. And so I think a lot of people will default to Zay Jones, just whether they're stacking this game or not. And that's totally fine. I'm actually cool with that. I'll play some Zay Jones, just whether they're stacking this game or not. And that's totally fine. I'm actually cool with that. I'll play some Zay Jones too. But I really like Christian Kirk.
Starting point is 00:36:48 And it's particularly because Detroit against slot receivers, they're just really bad. We know they're kind of bad against the pass anyway, but particularly against slot receivers. And we know when Kirk gets the targets, he usually pays them off. I wouldn't be surprised if on our prop show tomorrow, Mike, which I do, of course, with Dave Richard, prop prop stars and the coach, if I have a Christian Kirk over props.
Starting point is 00:37:09 So we'll have to wait for those for that show again, that's tomorrow at four o'clock. And then I see Buffalo woes says, see you getting in the club tonight with Gabe Davis. Of course, that's an early edge reference. I have submitted my first touchdown score, Buffalo woes, uh, otherwise known as the gem, but it is not Gabe Davis, but I think somebody did pick Gabe Davis. So wait until seven 30, watch that show. Thank you for watching this show. Anybody on the lion side that like Amon Ross St. Brown is pretty obvious to me, but then you mentioned DJ shark. So the thing about the Detroit passing game is it's kind of
Starting point is 00:37:43 muddled now that Josh Reynolds and DJ shark might sort of enter back into the mix. Is Kalief Raymond a guy that's just been washed away because of that? Or is he a guy behind Amon Rice St. Brown that you have the most confidence in? I think I've got some confidence in him, but I don't want to play him. I'd rather take a chance on shark, especially in a revenge narrative situation, former team. Um, I he's a little, he's a hundred dollars cheaper. I think people are more likely to play Clee Freeman. He's been more playable throughout the season. So I'm not going to play Clee Freeman in this particular matchup.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Okay. Any other Detroit lines we left out? I mean, I have to talk about Jamal Williams because he will just get the ball inside the five, inside the 10-yard line, and usually he produces when he does. Jamal Williams at 6K. We know DeAndre Swift is completely off the injury report for whatever that's worth, which, by the way, it's worth nothing to me. Justin Jackson gets some run here. Do we take a chance on Jamal Williams' touchdown equity? I don't, no. Not something I want to play, yeah. And is the Jared Goff stack in play, or if you're just going to stack this game, do Trevor Lawrence and get out? I prefer the Lawrence side and get out. I think we didn't necessarily see it last week,
Starting point is 00:39:01 but we've seen it throughout the season. Trevor Lawrence at least has some rushing upside. He's got some touchdown equity on the ground. Just it's not massive, but he definitely has it. Um, golf, I would say does not. So, uh, I'd rather play Lawrence and golf. Okay. Next game. And by the way, if anybody has any questions, shark week says, uh, that's funny. Um, if anybody has any questions, put them in the chat. We're going to race through this next game because we got to get to the four o'clocks and we got to get to the top three. Again, everybody hit the like button if you haven't already.
Starting point is 00:39:31 Denver, Baltimore, look behind the curtain here, everybody. I literally, in my notes here, I put no thank you. Like that is how I assess this game. Just a side note, J.K. Dobbins returned to practice. Mark Andrews, Mike, I'm sure he's a fine play. I'm not going to be interested. He dropped a touchdown pass. His day should have been way better.
Starting point is 00:39:51 In this particular game at home in a 38-half point total, I don't like the running game, of course, on the Baltimore side, but I don't like the passing game either, and there's certainly nobody on the Denver side I'm willing to play. Is this an easy move-on game, or do you want to discuss Mark Andrews or maybe a receiver option? No, thanks. Yeah, we're moving on. We're moving on. All right. So let's get to the first four o'clock game. There's two 405 games and there's two 425 games.
Starting point is 00:40:16 The two 405 games are Miami at San Francisco and Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams. I like to isolate 405 versus 425 so that everybody knows from a late swap standpoint when you can and when you cannot late swap. Obviously, after 405, there's still two games where you can utilize late swap, and they're two amazing games where you're probably going to have a lot of players in them. We're not going to spend too much time on Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams. Let's talk about Miami and San Francisco real quick. I think this is going to be a game, Mike, that's going to be on the outside looking in a little bit because people are going to be so much more interested in, especially in the four o'clock slate, playing Chiefs, Bengals,
Starting point is 00:40:54 Chargers, Raiders. Are you interested in this one? I mean, weather is a slight potential concern here. I think the pass rush should be a concern for the Miami Dolphins. This is not going to be one of the soft defenses that they faced. And let's not forget Teron Armstead at left tackle is not going to be in there for Miami either. With all that said, Tua gets the ball out fast. McDaniels schemes Tyree Killen Waddell in a great way. And this game could have a nice back and forth, but I don't think I'm going to get there. What about you?
Starting point is 00:41:22 Yeah, I'm not going to get there on the Miami side. I don't think this sets up very well for them. I think it's an incredibly difficult spot schedule-wise for them. I fully expect them to drop this game. They're going to struggle with the pressure San Francisco is able to put on. We'll see how well Tua picks it up, but it does not project to be a great spot for them. The only player that I could see myself getting to in this game as of right now is a tight end and it's George Kittle. I can see myself playing George Kittle in a few tournament lineups this week. Look, you look at the price point, not too bad, 5k. It's not a bare minimum play like we'd like to, but it's not drastically different than playing
Starting point is 00:42:02 a $3,800 tight end on this particular slate. We've seen slates in the past where George Kittle is a $6,500 player. Now he gets to face Miami. Who's been one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They're a pass funnel to the tight end position. We know that Debo's a little banged up. We know that they're lacking a little bit of running back depth too. You know, obviously got traded, and then Elijah Mitchell got hurt again. Christian McCaffrey banged up a little bit. I like George Kittle in this particular spot. It reminds me a lot of the matchup against Arizona.
Starting point is 00:42:35 I think he's going to have maybe eight to nine targets like he did against Kansas City, another game where he spiked and had a big week, six catches, 98 yards, and a touchdown. I think this could be a big spot for George Kittle. Yeah, I don't disagree. I would assume as far as the receiving options, it's spread a little bit too thin among Debo, Brandon Ayuk, and even Jawan Jennings who gets in the action a little bit. You're off the receivers, I assume, but I do want to ask you,
Starting point is 00:43:03 it looks like Christian McCaffrey practiced. I'm assuming you're not going to be paying ask you, it looks like Christian McCaffrey practiced. I'm assuming you're not going to be paying the $8,600 for Christian McCaffrey. So please answer that. And then if Christian McCaffrey is sort of designated as limited, are there any of these backup running backs, whether it be Jordan Mason or Tyrion Davis Price, if he's active, or even Tevin Coleman, that you would consider if you get the news that McCaffrey is going to be on some sort of snap count? Probably not. I think that if he's on a snap count, they're just looking to get other guys involved. They're looking for short area passing. Not a situation I'm going to attack.
Starting point is 00:43:38 I think for me, it's pretty much Kittle or bust here i could make the argument for playing christian mcafree still though if you wanted to pivot from derrick henry yeah i i like that quite a bit i know i'm not going to be playing derrick henry this week i would be probably a little bit more inclined inclined to play christian mcafree especially if the ownership is it relatively low on christian mcafree at this point it should be yeah very super, super low. We're talking 5%, yeah. Yeah, and Swoop, go ahead. I will talk about one of them here in a minute. There are only two players on the slate
Starting point is 00:44:14 that I have projected for 20-plus fantasy points and 5% or lower ownership. Christian McCaffrey is one of those two players. Okay, okay, nice tease for the next game. Swoop says, Miami, the forgotten stack this week. Yeah, and that's kind of how I led. Listen, if you want to do Tua to Tyreek or Tua to Waddle or Tua double stack,
Starting point is 00:44:32 feel free. I mean, I completely get it. But as far as this, as it sizes up to some of the other stacks that I like, it's probably a no for me. Matt Arrowood says, Thursday night slate Stevenson
Starting point is 00:44:42 or Allen and captain. Matt, wait in about 10 minutes. We're going to spend just a couple minutes on this, uh, this game tonight. And Matt, uh, you're, you seem to be new in the chat. If you haven't already hit the like button, please do. We have well over twice as many people that are watching us right now versus how many people have hit the like button. So, I mean, it's, it's not that hard. If you haven't hit the like button, please hit it for us. Let's go to a game that we're going to spend. I'm going to, I'm going to put the over under Mike at 44 seconds on this next game, Seattle at the Los Angeles Rams to 41 and a half point total Seattle favored by seven and a half. Listen, Seattle has a lot of pieces that we might, we might like on a typical slate.
Starting point is 00:45:17 And frankly, Kenneth Walker, I mean, I get it at 7k and I certainly get Tyler Lockett at 6k on the other side of the ball not interested in anybody so my question for you Mike is are you interested in anybody on the Seattle side not really uh not at this point I don't mind any of those guys pretty much any week you know Ken Walker you can play those guys whenever you want but I I don't really see this game turning into a shootout. I see Seattle eating a lot of clock. Um, yeah, not, not a situation. I want to attack a ton. I think that I there's one guy we have to call out and it's Higby. Um, and the only reason for that is Seattle is one of the worst teams. I believe they are dead last in the NFL against the tight end. The issue is, is just how reliable are the targets?
Starting point is 00:46:07 How reliable is quarterback play? How reliable is a desire to go win and compete on the other side? I'm not sure that it's there, so I'm probably not going to do it, but it does project as a week where Tyler Higbee could be the guy that scores the one Rams touchdown here and pays off this $3,700 tag. Yeah. And at this point, I don't think we know whether it's going to be John Wolford or Bryce Perkins at quarterback. We know it's not going to be Matt Stafford. So I think to me, if it's John Wolford, I would be more inclined to play Tyler Higbee rather than Bryce Perkins. That's
Starting point is 00:46:40 just, that's my take there. Yeah. Okay. So let's go to, it's funny. We have Matt Arrowwood who just said, I just liked it. Great show. Thank you for that. And that reminds me of Arrowhead, of course, which this game isn't being played at Arrowhead, but it's the Kansas City Chiefs at the Cincinnati Bengals, a 52 and a half point total, 27 and change in terms of the implied points for Kansas City and 25 for the Cincinnati Bengals. I'll just tell you right now that that Chargers Raiders game that we're going to close with that implied total for the Chargers is 26 and the implied total for the Raiders is 24 and a half. The only reason I bring those implied totals up is because those are very similar to that more inexpensive game that we talked about that Trevor
Starting point is 00:47:18 Lawrence Jared golf game. And I know we're talking about different caliber quarterbacks in that game versus the two games we're about to talk about. So you can take what I just said with a grain of salt. But again, when it comes to the point total and the implied point total, that cheap game sizes up just the same as these games. So if the quarterbacks hit, it's going to work out. Kansas City at Cincinnati, again, 52.5 point total. Kansas City favored by 2.5. Mike, I I'm just gonna let you go on this one because I don't know what to do with the receiver position I wouldn't mind getting back on Juju this game coming off a terrible game I I love those situations I'm not going to be on MBS Cadareous Tony didn't practice today I'm not going to be on Justin Watson I'd consider Sky
Starting point is 00:48:00 Moore but to me I'm guessing you're going to be on patrick mahomes to travis kelsey and then i'm curious who you're bringing that back with yeah and i'm actually not going to be on the chief side of it too much this week i like joe burrow a lot i like the bangles side here uh quite a bit i like having t higgins in there i think jamar chase is going to play in this game i think that they probably could have played last week i think they understood that this game was pretty much the game that they needed to go try and steal one. So I like the spot for him. He gets to play here at home. But as far as Burrow versus Mahomes, I'm going to play more Burrow than Mahomes in this game. If I am going to play Mahomes, it's probably going to be naked, maybe with Travis Kelsey, but I don't necessarily love Travis Kelsey in this particular
Starting point is 00:48:45 matchup. I know that he's got to throw the ball to someone and he's still going to force his way to Kelsey. However, I think the Bengals schematically are set up relatively well to defend Kelsey here. So I don't love him in this particular matchup. I'm more interested on the Cincinnati side. I love Broda Higgins and I love Jamar Chase. If you're stacking the Burrow side, it sounds to me like you're going to be more inclined to do Burrow to Jamar Chase as opposed to Burrow to T. Higgins. But tell me, what else would be involved in one of your favorite stacks on that side? Would it just simply be Burrow to Jamar Chase,
Starting point is 00:49:22 or do you throw in Hayden Hurst, or do you try to double stack it with T Higgins? Uh, I would more likely to double stack it with Higgins, even though there's some negative correlation there. Um, I like Higgins quite a bit individually, and I think that they're in this particular game, there's room enough to get there, uh, on the Kansas city side. I'm just expecting my homes to spread it around a little bit too much. I don't expect Kansas City to find much success at all running the football. I think Cincinnati is pretty good defending the run here. They are, for sure. So what concerns me at that spot is they're pretty good defending the run. I think that they're going to be able to focus on Travis Kelsey quite a bit, and they can defend him relatively well. Also, you watched the last game these guys played last year. I believe Travis Kelsey had 25 receiving yards against the Cincinnati team on seven targets, not expecting
Starting point is 00:50:10 something that low again. But when we know we're going to see nothing but throwing volume from homes, the receiving group that he's got out there and the way some of the backs can play out of the backfield, I think that it's just too thin to really go isolate on anyone there. So again, I'd play Mahomes naked, but I really like the Cincinnati side more in DFS. And yes or no on Joe Mixon, whether forget about the stack part of it. Somebody in your player pool. Yes or no? No, not at this time. Yeah. Mixon's not going to be in mine either.
Starting point is 00:50:41 OK, I think it's a good time to unless there's any other thoughts on this game, Mike, which I think we covered it. And I do, by the way, I like the Borough side of this stack more as well. I mean, you're certainly getting a price break, a pretty big price break, which you're probably going to need. $6,900 on DraftKings versus the $8,300 price tag of Patrick Mahomes. Oh, Brian Fletcher's in here. He says, hit the like button, please.
Starting point is 00:51:02 They help us out with awesome content. Brian, that is so nice. Thank you very much. What else is nice? Is this next game professional transition? Not really. It was kind of awkward. The Los Angeles Chargers are at the Las Vegas Raiders. So I'll tell you, we're going to do our cheat sheet in a second. And I was debating between two different stacks. It was going to be the one that I went with, or it was going to be Justin Herbert to Austin Eckler. But, and I just want everybody to understand, I am definitely playing
Starting point is 00:51:31 that stack this week. It's just, I didn't want to give that out on my cheat sheet because it's really expensive and it kind of limits your lineup. But Mike, I can't get away from Justin Herbert. I played him in my cash games last week and it really worked out for me. We know that, well, yeah, Justin Herbert, he doesn't run a ton, but the Chargers can't run the ball. They cannot run the ball. And what does that mean? That means Justin Herbert is just going to be passing and passing and passing. And again, I'll reference our prop show tomorrow at four o'clock on the early edge. I might have, I mean, I'll have to look at the line, but I might have a completions prop to put out there on Justin Herbert, because I think it's going to be a lot of like low,
Starting point is 00:52:09 sort of low A-dot plays to Keenan Allen and to Austin Eckler, of course, and just completion after completion are going to be piled up. So I love the Justin Herbert side. I think there's plenty of value receivers. Once you get past Keenan, Josh Palmer, still value DeAndre Carter at 3,900. Mike Williams is not going to play in this game, I don't think. And then on the Raiders side, what's not to like, right? Adams didn't have a great game last week, but we know Adams can go off at any given moment. Derek Carr's price is good.
Starting point is 00:52:36 So I think you can stack this game on both sides. Are these stacks, and I'm talking about Justin Herbert's stack or Derek Carr, are they in your top three, top four? How are you feeling about this one? Yeah, they definitely are. Uh, I'm going to play Derek Carr again. I played Derek Carr last week, still got me to 23 fantasy points, uh, back-to-back weeks there. You look at Derek Carr and the price point is something that's incredibly attractive. Number one, number two, having Devante Adams and that natural stack, just super, super attractive from a DFS standpoint, a nice way to start a lineup. Derek Carr has attempted at least 36 passes in each of the last four games. He's had two
Starting point is 00:53:15 touchdowns or more in all of those games. Uh, now he's got another matchup that he frankly should thrive in. Um, so I like the price point here. I think this game's an absolute shootout. I love pairing him with Devontae Adams. Look, we've already seen Adams in this matchup earlier. This is the first game of the season where he was forced 14 targets. I think that he's got a ton of upside. I don't need to tell you how good Devontae Adams is, but I love the stack with him and I love the double stack with Foster Moreau. Okay. So Derek Carr to Devontae Adams, Foster Moreau, that's going to allow you to do a lot of different things because of what you're saving at the quarterback and tight end position real quick on Josh Jacobs, who unbelievably had a calf strain.
Starting point is 00:53:56 And then I guess didn't have a calf strain and then almost had 40 touches and won the game for the Raiders in overtime. He's been limited all week. I think he's going to play on Sunday. Is he a guy that's going to play on Sunday. Is he a guy that's going to make your pool at 7,900? He might make the player pool. I'm more likely to pivot to the passing game than the running game.
Starting point is 00:54:17 It's obviously an ideal matchup here for him against the Chargers. They struggled to defend the run. I think that's why I like Derek Carr so much and just the Raiders in general and the offense scoring points. I think Jacobs is going to have success on the ground. I think they're going to have to do a lot to try and stop him. And I think that's ultimately where they get burned at times is opening things up a little bit for Devontae and Foster Moreau, frankly, who I think honestly has a big game here. So Jacobs is in the player pool, but he's not going to be like a lock button play for me like he might be for others. On the Chargers side, before we get away from this game and we'll get to your top three, Justin Herbert to Austin Eckler, of course I like.
Starting point is 00:54:54 And I like Austin Eckler independent of a stack as well. But I also like the receivers here, and I think that's kind of a captain obvious statement. But I think people might just sort of gloss over Keenan Allen and try to take the value of Josh Palmer at 5,600 or DeAndre Carter at 3,900. And I get that, but I really like Keenan Allen here. I think this is one of those situations again, where I'm talking about Justin Herbert, just kind of not checking it down, but just the low, the short area targets. I feel like Keenan Allen could gobble up a lot of those and find himself in the end zone too. And by the way, the Raiders, they're better against the boundary receivers than they are the slot receivers. And I think Keenan Allen could really feast.
Starting point is 00:55:30 Now, he doesn't have the typical upside that we're looking for, but I think I want to play him because I don't think a lot of people will play him at 6,500. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong about the ownership, but what receivers do you like in this game among Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, DeAndre Carter? It's Keenan Allen by far the top option for me. I like the spot a lot for him, honestly. I think that he lands in the end zone again, but I think that he approaches 100 yards in this game as well. So he's someone that's definitely going to be in there in my player pool. I think the most interesting things that you can do, which would be really, again, pretty terrifying based on how good that game environment in Detroit is, but making the pivot to someone like Keenan Allen over a monitor, St. Brown, saving a little
Starting point is 00:56:17 bit of money. I think it does wonders for your lineup construction. If a monitor doesn't have a big game. Yeah. And for the record, I think Amonra and Keenan in a cash lineup makes a lot of sense and it's not, it's not price prohibitive. So those are two guys that are probably going to be fixtures. Uh, Deandre Carter, would you be willing to take a stab at him at 3,900 knowing that Mike Williams probably isn't going to be back? Yeah, I don't mind it. Um, I, I don't love it, but I'd rather play him than Quez Watkins, who we talked about earlier at 3,800. Things like that. I think that it's probably a good play. We've seen games of 10 targets. With Quez, it's been 10 targets over the last four games combined. So I'm not interested in something like that. The only other call out here that literally no one is going to play. If you play three max entry or single entry, you might be the only person in your tournament that plays them. Gerald Everett. Can't believe he's still 4,400. There's a big difference between that and, you know, a guy like Kittle's got the name value shown the upside. The Raiders aren't
Starting point is 00:57:20 great against the tight end. You know, I think this is an interesting call out for Everett here at this spot. Excellent. Love that play at 4,400. All right, let's finally get to your top three, and we can race through this. We've taken up a lot of time already because I want to get to our cheat sheet and maybe get a couple thoughts from you for tonight's game, but your top three at each position. Let's start at the quarterback position. Derek Carr, number one. I just love that game environment. Love the price point. Love the stack with Devontae Adams and Foster Moreau. Number two, Joe Burrow.
Starting point is 00:57:51 Love Burrow in this spot. I think he's going to have to be throwing a lot in this particular matchup. I think that Kansas City surrenders a lot of yards here to them. And then finally, Mike White. We're going back to Mike White here for the Jets. I love that they're going to give him all the passing work. I love that we're going to have running backs who can catch the ball for him. I think it's a great spot. get news that he isn't. Number two, Derrick Henry. I personally like Derrick Henry a lot in this Eagles matchup. I think the strategy, unless Henry is not effective, is to give him the ball as many times as possible, shorten the game as much as they possibly can. And then finally, Zonovan Knight. I don't think Michael Carter's
Starting point is 00:58:38 going to play. I think Knight earned himself some more reps in this Jets offense. I think Mike White liked playing with him quite a bit. Give me Z him a night there for number three. For the wide receivers, number one, Devontae Adams. No surprise here when I've got Derek Carr as my number one quarterback. I think he has force-fed targets in this game. That will be a shootout, will be very competitive. Number two, Tee Higgins for now. Tee Higgins, I love Jamar Chase as well, but I'm playing Tee Higgins. I'll be playing Tee Higgins in every lineup that I'm not playing Joe Burrow in because I want a piece of Joe Burrow in pretty much every lineup. And then I'm on to St. Brown for now.
Starting point is 00:59:15 Look, you can make the case for fading him in tournaments. You should not in cash games. Way too good of a play. Moving to tight end, Foster Moreau. Number one, by far for me uh just the natural stack with derrick carr number two george kittle love this potential spot for george kittle be a tournament only play for sure however i think this sets up really nicely for him and then number three david and joku but he mispracticed not sure if he's going to play if he does play i think that's who deshaun
Starting point is 00:59:42 watson's going to be hitting in the end zone. We will see. And then defenses, we're going Giants, 49ers, and the Green Bay Packers. All right. That is Mike's top three at each position. I'll do my side of the cheat sheet. I've got Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk. I'm really trying to save money there more than anything. I mean, obviously, just from a pure point standpoint, I really do like Justin Herbert to either Keenan Allen or Austin Eckler, most likely Austin Eckler, if you can afford that.
Starting point is 01:00:11 But the stack I'm going with is Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk against that Detroit defense in Detroit. My chalk play is Amon Rasain Brown at 7,100. Value play is going to be DeAndre Carter at 3,900. I don't think he's going to require much to get there, and I think Justin Herbert's going to be passing it just as much as he's been passing it. Again, Mike Williams, not expected to play in this game. My contrarian play is Justin Jefferson. Again, that's one where his ownership may begin to creep up, but I think whether you're stacking
Starting point is 01:00:38 or not, I think Justin Jefferson can always go off. I don't care if Sauce Gardner or anybody else is on the other side. Jefferson is just one of those guys that can take a house call any given game, any given quarter. My fade is going to be Derrick Henry. I've talked about it today. I think Jordan Davis is going to be back for the Eagles. And for the record, Derrick Henry hasn't been running well. He was my fade two or three weeks ago too. And that really worked out for me. He was pretty much terrible. I don't know if that foot injury is still a thing for him. And of course, Derrick Henry can absolutely go off, but you got to fade somebody in this portion of the cheat sheet. So Derek Henry is going to be my fade. Mike, your cheat sheet. Derek Carr to Devante Adams. Same thing as last week. Love this stack for them. Love this matchup against the Chargers. Chalk play.
Starting point is 01:01:19 We're going Garrett Wilson for now. 5,300. I really like him. You can use him pretty much everywhere across the board as a top play, as a value play, as a chalk play doesn't matter. Garrett Wilson, great spot for him with Mike White taking over a quarterback value play. I'm going to list another piece of my stack. It's Foster Moreau, 3,600. Love the value on him at tight end. I think this is a great week for him. Contrarian play. We're going Jamar Chase. Welcome back, Jamar Chase. I think he's definitely playing in this game. I don't think he's necessarily going to be at 100%, but I don't think it's decoy status either. I love the matchup. He's not going to be popular. And then my fade, Damian Pierce, once again, 5,900, still projecting 15 to 25% owned, depending on where you look.
Starting point is 01:02:02 Great price point, 5,900,900 still has usage don't like him in the spot against the browns still think he gets shut down a little bit in terms of number of carries and touches by the team at some point this season okay that is mike's cheat sheet we're going to have that uh tweeted out by the way so if you're not already following mike mcclure at mike 5754 or me at c and ajad uh follow us because we tweeted out, but also the main fantasy football today account tweets it out as well. We did have a question about showdown. So let's just talk about showdown for a minute. Tell us maybe some players that, I mean, obviously people know to play Ramondre Stevenson and Josh Allen, and they're going to try to play Stefan Diggs.
Starting point is 01:02:43 How are you from a construction standpoint? Do all three of those guys make it in your lineup or does it end up being price prohibitive? And for the record, we did have a question in the captain spot, Ramondre versus Josh Allen. If you had to choose, who would you choose there? I have a little bit more Josh Allen, but Allen and Ramondre very clearly the top two. And as far as getting studs in the lineup it's super easy tonight uh just because we have one obvious play at least it's obvious to me jj taylor uh i believe he is yeah he's only 200 the bare minimum over on draft kings uh with damian harris out jj taylor
Starting point is 01:03:20 is certainly not going to cut massively into remon Trey's workload. However, in week nine, we saw something similar. He still touched the football 11 times. He had 10 carries, one reception. Not impossible for him to be on the field in the red zone here in this particular matchup. So love J.J. Taylor. If you play him, it allows you to pretty much do whatever you want. Quickly going to build a, you know, half of a lineup here. By the way, I love both kickers as well.
Starting point is 01:03:47 I think the kickers are still heavily involved here. But if you play Ramondre Stevenson, you can play Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, JJ Taylor. Still pretty much get whoever you want. Say you wanted to play Devin Singletary. You still have enough for a defense. Yeah, there's all sorts of ways to get about this, but Stevenson and digs very, or Stevenson and, uh, Alan very clearly the top two, uh, captain. Now, real quick, if you're into the kickers, which I know in showdown kickers, uh, can be
Starting point is 01:04:17 more popular, uh, that to, to sharps like yourself versus some of the regular folks who were just like randomly playing showdown. Does that to you or to me, that means maybe it's a lower scoring game. Maybe there's less touchdowns in this game. Is that kind of what you're looking at? Like when we look at the total, for example, are we maybe leaning towards the under leaning to more drives being stopped and in field goals happening versus cashing in with the touchdown? So I personally lean towards the over actually just slightly just at 43 and a half, I make the number 45 and a half. But I do like the kicker still just because on the New England side, right, we expect a lot of the volume to go to Ramondre Stevenson.
Starting point is 01:04:57 Other than that, they can move the ball, first of all, by having great field position from their defense. You don't see a ton of points from some of these wide receivers. You see guys with three catches, 27 yards, no touchdown. Like it's not very difficult for a kicker to outscore that in this format, the way this is. So look, I personally, I like them. You look at Tyler Bass, by the way, I know it was against Cleveland,
Starting point is 01:05:21 but he scored 23 fantasy points in week 11 against Cleveland. He has not scored less than points in week 11 against Cleveland. He has not scored less than 10 in each of the last three games. He scored 10 plus and four of the last five. Now go look at some of the receiving options on both sides and see how many of those guys are failing to hit 10 points in a game like this. Easy to see why we like the kickers here. Absolutely. Information you can catch on fantasy football today.
Starting point is 01:05:46 Information you can catch if you're a sports line subscriber, or if you're watching the early edge, which I will be on at seven 30 tonight. It's been a great week 13 breakdown. We went a little bit over time, but that's because we had a lot of games to talk about. I hope everybody enjoyed it. Mike I'm hoping on Tuesday,
Starting point is 01:06:01 we get to talk about a takedown. I know we've been close to a few takedowns over the last month or so, and I'm hoping maybe we get close this week, a big takedown in a big tournament. But for now, this is the Game by Game preview. I will see you on Tuesday for the Solo Pod, which, of course, is where we recap our Week 13 lineups and we take an early look at Week 14. I can't believe it's about to be Week 14.
Starting point is 01:06:23 My name is Sian Najad. That's Mike McClure. This is Fantasy Football Today DFS. Thanks for being a part of this. We'll see you next week.

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