Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 15 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast)

Episode Date: December 15, 2022

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 15 Saturday DFS contest over on Draftkings-  ht...tps://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/138435776 Join our $5 Week 15 Sunday DFS contest over on Draftkings-  https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/138432763 Sia Nejad and Mike McClure are previewing the NFL DFS Week 15 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (5:00)- SATURDAY SLATE (19:00)- Falcons at Saints (22:10)- Lions at Jets (25:00)- Chiefs at Texans (29:10)- Eagles at Bears (32:33)- Steelers at Panthers (35:30)- Cowboys at Jaguars (39:49)- Cardinals at Broncos (43:50)- Patriots at Raiders (47:00)- Titans at Chargers (50:40)- Bengals at Bucs (56:10)- Mike’s TOP 3 at each position (58:13)- Week 15 Cheat Sheet 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. welcome back everybody this is fantasy football today dfs it's our thursday show so it's our game by game preview we're going to do it a little differently this time we're still going to do the game by game preview but we have some saturday slate stuff to talk about so we're going to do
Starting point is 00:00:42 that as well i want to remind everybody that our contests are active. I think the Saturday contest, because it's Saturday and it's kind of a weird time, we only had 100 in terms of number of entries. So that's like almost full. So if you want to get in that and you're in the live chat and you're listening to me right now, go ahead and pay the $5 to get in that contest. Of course, we have the Sunday contest going as well. I believe that's just a regular 200. So that one's not quite filling up quite yet. So everybody get into both contests if you can. Mike, interesting. We're in this part of the year where we've got a bunch of Saturday stuff and we got Sunday stuff. Any sort of different approaches with attacking the slate like this or it's just the same old, same old? There's differences for sure, especially in the Saturday slate that we'll talk about.
Starting point is 00:01:24 You can do a lot of interesting things from a game theory perspective when you only have three games on the slate versus 10. Is that what we have on the main slate this week? 10 games? Yeah, it's 10 games. Which is still great. I like the 10 game slate more than I like a 12 or 15. I like when it reduces the number of options just a little bit just because it makes predicting the ownership a little bit easier overall. And if you can accurately predict the ownership, you're on your right track to being profitable.
Starting point is 00:01:51 So I like the setup that we have both days here. Yeah. And I know we talked about this on Tuesday a little bit, and I'm glad you're here because you can kind of expand on it before we get to some Saturday slate discussion. But, you know, it's kind of like, it's obviously just like the Thanksgiving slate, right? So there's certain things that are in play on Saturday. And again, we're going to do Saturday and Sunday on this show. Everybody that's already in there, I see you, Kevin, Chargy, 65.
Starting point is 00:02:13 Mike is in here as usual. Kevin, I mentioned your name already, but let's see, who else? Andrew, I see you in here. James, go ahead and hit the like button if you haven't already. But, you know, one thing for sure is late swap is critical in a three game slate like this, where you have just consecutive games one after the other. And I also I think Mike, and you're big on this in regular slates, too. But certainly in this three game slate, conventional rules don't apply, you can play your defense against a couple position players like you wouldn't normally do that in a you know, a 10 game slate, for example.
Starting point is 00:02:44 So any other things that just like really prominent things before we get into the Saturday slate, like people really need to understand before we get to this, this Saturday discussion. I would say the big thing is don't worry about salary as well. You know, there are many times in a three game slate where the optimal lineup might still leave two to $4,000 in salary on the table. So when you think about it a perfect example is because the bills typically play in these kind of slates uh you might have an optimal lineup that you like that has stephon diggs as the wide receiver using all the money an optimal lineup there could literally be mckinsey instead of diggs which is going to be two thousand dollars
Starting point is 00:03:21 cheaper leaving that two thousand on the table it's only one player. He's got to outscore versus, you know, 35 other receivers that could potentially be in that spot on a full slate. So very, very different, uh, style in general, if you want to get different, um, you know, if you're building with an optimizer or by hand, do not allow yourself to use a hundred percent, uh, of the salary. Um, That's the number one thing is if you're using an optimizer, set it to where it will not possibly give you a lineup that uses 100% of the salary. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. And by the way, it's funny you mentioned the optimizer because we do have a question which you may or may not be able to answer, Mike, from Buffalo
Starting point is 00:04:01 Woes. Thank you for being in here. Will the lineup optimizer on sports line be updated for every slate? Do you know that the answer to that? So if you, if using my projections or it's multiple projection source, the simulation, which is the sports line computer, that is not my simulation is not my data. You can change that to my name. That will be populated for the individual slates, the three game slate on Saturday, and then the main slate on Sunday. It will be updated later tonight for the Thursday night football slate, but I do not play Thursday through Monday slates like that. Okay, great. So I think that answers your question. And you mentioned Isaiah McKenzie. I think we
Starting point is 00:04:39 should start with just talking about some quarterbacks because, Mike, I've been pretty hot on props on the early edge. And one of my, one of my props last week was Gabriel Davis is under 48 and a half yards. I kind of like him this week. And I, and I, and it's funny that you mentioned like stepping down from digs to McKenzie, or of course that would also mean digs to Gabriel Davis. I think all of that is, is definitely in play this week because I think people on that Saturday slate are going to want to pay up for one of those like high end receivers, whether it's Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson or Stefan Diggs, and they'll just force one of those guys in, and that's fine, but I totally see what you're saying in terms of getting your lineup different than everybody else because everything's super condensed
Starting point is 00:05:16 on a three-game slate, and it's just stepping down to that wide receiver two, and then boom, if that wide receiver two goes off. So let's start there with Buffalo because we're not going to go game by game. We're going to go position by position. At the quarterback position, this took up a lot of time for me on the Tuesday solo pod because I think this is where you kind of set up your lineup, particularly on these three-game slates. It's Josh Allen. We got Tua, Deshaun Watson, Cousins, Huntley, and Matt Ryan.
Starting point is 00:05:41 Now, one thing on Huntley, it looks like he's playing. It looks like he's already somehow miraculously out of concussion protocol, so I'm not going to ask any questions there. But I like Matt Ryan in this one quite a bit at 5,200, Mike, and I want to get your thoughts there. I also like Deshaun Watson, and I have no issue paying up for Josh Allen if the weather is decent enough when they play on Saturday. Those were my three favorite. Do you have maybe a top three at the quarterback position on Saturday? Yeah, if I had to rate them, uh, Kirk Cousins is going to be number one for me. Uh, just because I think the matchup is by far the easiest. You're not dealing
Starting point is 00:06:15 with any of the elements. Um, so that's where I'm going to be mostly, uh, in the price point. I thought it was going to get to be a Tyler Huntley week again. Obviously got the concussion left early last week, all those things. The issue this week is the pricing. There's Josh Allen and then a massive gap. There's not a huge difference even between Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan. It's 800 bucks, but on a three game slate, it becomes way less important in my opinion. So Kirk Cousins is going to be the guy that I default to the most. He's going to be the most popular, but you know, again, for good reason. Um, after that, it's probably going to be either Watson or Huntley. Um, I, I get the interest with Matt Ryan. I get that, uh, the Minnesota defense has been bad and lets teams hang around. He should have
Starting point is 00:07:03 all the opportunity in the world there. However, I still think it's going to be a lot of Jonathan Taylor for the Indianapolis Colts in this one. So if I had to rank them, it would be cousins Huntley, then Watson in terms of the order that I personally will be playing them. And if you were going to play a Matt Ryan stack, and I know you're not, but, but I'm certainly going to, and you like Jonathan Taylor. Is there a scenario on this short slate, this three-game slate, where it's Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, and pick whichever of the three receivers you want to play? Obviously, Pittman's my favorite. Pierce is probably my second, and then Pierce. But the point is, is that an okay stack on this slate, Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, and one of the receivers?
Starting point is 00:07:42 Yes, definitely. Uh, to just to give you some perspective too, when I'm running my stuff for my optimal lineup, uh, it does not have Matt Ryan has Kirk cousins, a quarterback, but the lineup itself has Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Paris Campbell, all in the lineup. Uh, and it's still a double stack with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. So, okay, everybody that should really give you an idea of what we said from the outset, which is conventional rules just absolutely don't apply on a slate like this. And I have to emphasize this because we emphasized it on Tuesday, but now that Mike's here, I think he's the one that really kind of is on top of the weather a lot. These are optimal conditions. We've been saying it all year, look for those dome games. They're
Starting point is 00:08:20 typically the higher scoring games, but particularly this time of year, we're mid-December. It is really important to know, obviously, that Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins are going to be playing in conditions that are literally perfect. And the other two teams likely are not. Do you have any idea? You know, precipitation is expected in Buffalo on game day. Is that something that's going to just dissuade you from stacking this game? Of course, you might grab some pieces in this game, but in terms of stacking this game with Josh Allen or Tua, is the precipitation going to affect that? It does for me. It's definitely not an ideal spot.
Starting point is 00:08:58 It looks like it's going to be at most 32 degrees with the snow, 15 to 20 mile per hour winds. It's not a comfortable environment there. So, yeah, I'm not, you know, I'll have some pieces on the Buffalo side. I'm most interested actually in the guy you mentioned, Gabe Davis. But I'm not going to have anything there other than the defenses. I like the Bills defense quite a bit, obviously. Not really rocket science at that point. Absolutely. And for the record, correct me if I'm wrong, Mike, I should know this,
Starting point is 00:09:28 but that's the night game, right? That's the third of the three games, right? I'm checking right now. It is. Okay. That game's at 815. And just to go over the total there, that's a 44 point total. The Browns game is a 38 point total at games in Cleveland and 47 and a half in the Minnesota game. Mike, how about this? What if I was doing a three max, a $15 three max or something like that, and I filled out two lineups and whatever. They were whatever my preferences were. But the third lineup, I basically just take the chance of leaving the lineup, not blank, but basically stacking that 8 o'clock game, or at least not playing the one o'clock game. And maybe the weather turns, maybe the conditions become more optimal than we thought.
Starting point is 00:10:10 And because everybody's so afraid of the rain or the snow or the wind, all of a sudden you get Josh Allen in 12 mile per hour wind and there's no precipitation and you get digs and then you get Davis and you get Tyree kill. I mean, is that if somebody was doing a three max, would that be something you would recommend? Probably not completely stacking it. I think it would be OK if like, say, you wanted to play a Josh Allen lineup. I think it'd be OK to leave, you know, one running back spot, two pass catchers and a defense potentially. I don't think it's a scenario where like, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:46 for example, I'd feel much better about building a lineup that was a hundred percent Vikings and Colts players with the bills defense. For example, I don't think you're going to do that with a hundred percent Miami Buffalo game with the defense or one player from another game. I just, I don't think it sets up that well.
Starting point is 00:11:05 I think there are too many good plays that are priced appropriately in the Minnesota Indianapolis game that I think it's hard to completely get away from that one. Speaking of at the running back position, you know, some of the ones we talked about on, on Tuesday during the solo pod was Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor,
Starting point is 00:11:26 of course, Dalvin cook, most dirt looks like no Jeff Wilson. I'm not really going to be playing Dobbins, but he's 5,200, not a bad price. James cook at 4,800 cream hunt, 4,300 as a potential dart throw.
Starting point is 00:11:36 If you could maybe list, you know, two or three running backs that you like on this short slate. Yeah, man, chief easy there, buddy. So,
Starting point is 00:11:43 uh, yeah, it's going to be a lot of jonathan taylor a lot of raheem mostert um outside of that you know i i think that the things that you can start to look at is dobbins is probably going to have the most upside um in terms of he's probably going to get looks in the running game if they're in the red zone he's probably going to get looks in the running game. If they're in the red zone, he's probably going to have those handoffs. Not a lot of people are going to play him. Um, you know, I'm projecting him five to 6% owned, which is incredibly low on this kind of a slate. Uh, that's mostly where I think you're going to want to be looking. Um, you know, always can look at Nick Chubb. I think
Starting point is 00:12:21 that's a strong contrarian play just because of the overall upside he presents. The issue for me is Baltimore has been very good against the run over the last six games. Certainly. And you can beat them with the pass, which actually leads to, let's just talk about the wide receivers real quick, because Deshaun Watson is one of the guys that you like this week. Obviously, Kirk Cousins is one of the guys you like this week. Let's talk about both of those guys and maybe some stacks that you'd be considering with Deshaun Watson with Kirk Cousins. Yeah, so if it's Deshaun Watson, honestly, I'm probably just pairing him with Kareem Hunt or Nick Chubb, honestly. And just trying to capitalize overall on Cleveland's offensive points. Hoping that we see Deshaun use the legs, get the rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:13:03 The only path I see Deshaun Watson really being viable is if he the rushing touchdowns. The only path I see to Sean Watson really being viable is if he scores rushing touchdowns, personally. I don't see him throwing for enough volume in this kind of game. As far as Kirk Cousins, though, I'm going to have a ton of those stacked up. It'll be Jefferson and Thielen, and then Hawkinson and Osborne. I think that KJ Osborne's pretty interesting to me uh particular slate just mostly because of the price point right so i like i don't think that uh you know having that 3700 guy in there like there's not a ton of 3700 players that are going to be
Starting point is 00:13:40 on the field realistically and catching passes like this. This is totally a spot where he can have some relevancy. So I'm going to play him quite a bit, but it's mostly Jefferson, Dillon. I mean, I've got Hogg. I've got them all in there. I've got triple stacks with Cousins and a lot of the lineups. And on the Cleveland side, I'm going to ask you this for Cleveland and the Colts, and then we're probably just going to break out of this and go to the 10, 10 games late game by game preview for Sunday. But on the Cleveland side, you know, I think there's three guys that, that if you were going to stack Watson with a, a non running back, obviously DPJ is a guy who's been very much involved in is, is the deep threat who could, who can expose the Baltimore Ravens defense. Amari Cooper, obviously a target monster and can have a big game here and there. And then Joker, who was just, you know, he's been great since he's been back from injury.
Starting point is 00:14:27 So can you rank those three in terms of likelihood that they would be in your lineup if you were to play those pass catchers? I can tell you now, just looking at all my lineups that I've run and Joker is the only one that actually has any exposure. The rest of them probably not going to get to. Yeah, probably not going to get to. Yeah, probably not going to get to. So this is and what I want people to understand when I say that, like, wow, that doesn't make sense necessarily. What the path to me playing a lineup with Deshaun Watson in it that wins and gets there. I don't envision it necessarily being Watson throwing touchdown passes to Amari Cooper. Right. throwing touchdown passes to Amari Cooper, right? What I envision is an okay game, but he slightly
Starting point is 00:15:06 outscores Kirk Cousins by two points because he has 40 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, right? So you might build all these lineups with Deshaun Watson while still triple stacking Minnesota receivers because Watson can individually outscore someone like Kirk Cousins still because of the rushing upside. Those are the kinds of things that we want to do on some of these smaller slates. So when you're playing guys like that and like Huntley, for example, on the other side of that game, don't feel like you have to force stacks just because you want that individual quarterback. Gotcha. And just for those that are stacking the Colts, which I know I'm going to be doing with some of my tournament lineups, you got Pittman, obviously, at $5,800, which is certainly a fair price. And then you got guys like Alec Pierce and Paris Campbell that are priced well below them.
Starting point is 00:15:55 Any of those three guys, have they made it into any of your lineups? Yes, all three have. But again, I'm very overweight on the one game. I'm very overweight on the very first game. I've got lineups that have everyone in that game except for the Bills defense, right? So I've got lineups like that. I've got lineups that have everyone
Starting point is 00:16:17 except for Bills defense and David Njoku. And then I have another one with everyone in that game except for Bills defense and Raheem Mostert. So I'm very, very heavy on all the pass catchers in that controlled environment. It is far, far, far superior to the other situations this week. I love it. And I don't think we really need to touch on the tight ends specifically because we kind of already did that.
Starting point is 00:16:38 It sounds like guys like Njoku and Hawkinson are mostly in play for you. Is there any other tight end that's on your radar, Mike? Not really. I mean, I'll say Mark Andrews. No one's going to play him up at that price point. That's the only one I'll say, yeah. Okay, sounds good. Well, listen, that's the Saturday stuff.
Starting point is 00:16:58 So we're going to do the 10-game Sunday slate, of course. Again, the contest is open for that. We're about halfway filled up for that one, so go ahead and register for that. But let's go ahead and just talk about the Sunday slate. But before we do that, let's hear a message from our partners. We are back. My name is Sina Jha. That's Mike McClure. If you haven't already hit the like button, hit the like button. And for the record, if you have questions about the Saturday slate, maybe we'll address them at the very end of the show. I think we covered it pretty well, actually. And it was a slightly different format. But I
Starting point is 00:17:24 think with the three-game slate, you're really thinking more construction rather than game-by-game preview type stuff. So I didn't want to slog through that the typical way. However, now that we have a 10-game slate in front of us for Sunday, Mike, let's get it started. How does that sound? Let's do it. I love this 10-game slate. Let's go. Yeah, I love it too. And it's funny because, Mike, there's so much that i like this is one of those slates where when i initially looked at it i was like okay you know i'll probably have a pretty condensed core here like i'd like to have in terms of the players i'm going to play but now it's kind of expanding and when i saw by the way everybody who's listening when i saw mike's top three at
Starting point is 00:17:59 each position which for the record we'll get to at the end of the show and we'll get too early if we can get to 100 likes so everybody definitely hit the like button so we can get to that early. But teaser for you, Mike's cheat sheet, Mike's top three is very interesting. And it's really notable for me because most of you know how successful Mike has been in DFS across all DFS spectrums, but particularly the NFL. And when you see his top three, I think you're going to see why, because there's some plays that he has where, you know, none of us really were ever going to consider if I'm being honest, I really think that's the case. And I think that's just,
Starting point is 00:18:34 it's just evidence that, you know, if you pick the right guy that nobody's on, then you're in really, really good shape. So he mentioned it last week with Tyler Huntley, like it can either crash and burn or you can finish in first or second place. And that's what DFS tournament players try to do. They don't really care about middling anything. They want to finish first, and they don't mind finishing last. That's how their constructions are. So please stay tuned for the top three. Hit the like button. That's going to be really interesting to everybody.
Starting point is 00:19:00 What may not be interesting, Mike, is this Falcons plus four and a half at the Saints, 43 and a half. I say that because it's a relatively low total. The Saints have been pretty underwhelming on offense. The Falcons, I think, are an interesting team, but they're not an interesting DFS or fantasy team. Now we have Desmond Ritter, who's going to be running the offense instead of Marcus Mariota. That's going to be for the rest of the season, by the way, because Mariota is not playing the rest of the season. He's going to be on IR with a knee injury. Mike, am I crazy? I kind of think this could be a really
Starting point is 00:19:30 great spot to play Kamara. I think it could be just as good of a spot to play Olave, maybe even a Dalton stack in a crazy wild silver bullet type tournament. But I have a feeling you like Kamara this week. Am I right or wrong? You are correct. I love Alvin Kamara this week. Honestly, how can you not? Look at the price point, $6,800. This guy used to be $8,800 on the regular.
Starting point is 00:20:00 Obviously, the performances haven't really put him up to that point. However, he did have two relatively difficult matchups for his position with San Francisco and Tampa Bay in the last two games, fully expecting him to be in a positive game script here where they are neutral or leading for most of this game playing against the rookie quarterback. I think he's going to be heavily involved in this one. Look, I like his receiving prop over this week. I think he's going to have eight to 10 targets in the passing game again, in this particular matchup, uh, love Alvin Kamara here. I think it's a huge bounce back week for him and the saints in general. And, and by the way, in case Mike didn't already mention it, they are coming off a buy. And I think when, when you are a slightly struggling team and I think Dalton has been okay at quarterback,
Starting point is 00:20:42 he's gotten a little unlucky, but you know but it's certainly not an elite quarterback by any means. You're coming off a bye, and you're obviously going to, especially without Mark Ingram, you're going to be game planning your best player to get the ball to win the game. So I think this is a really, really good spot for Kamara. My question for you, Mike, before we leave this game and we go to Lions and the Jets, is there anyone else in play for you? I mentioned Chris Olave. I even mentioned a crazy Dalton-Olave stack, which in all candor, you know, I'm, I'm really more just talking about
Starting point is 00:21:09 than potentially playing, but I just thought it might be interesting because it's the Atlanta defense. Right. And I think that's part of the reason we like Kamara is because the Atlanta defense really, they can't really stop anybody, whether it's the running game or the passing game. So anybody else in play or is it Kamara and move on? It's mostly Kamara move on. If you're playing way more lineups than I will be, I'll be playing five total. So he's not going to make it. Shahid. I like Shahid at $3,200 as a deep, deep tournament flyer. I liked his involvement as of late. I think that this could be a decent spot for him. The only other thing I will say, the only time that we really hyped Alvin Kamara and played him was in the matchup with Vegas, which I project to be similar to this individual matchup. That is the day where he had all of the
Starting point is 00:21:56 touchdowns, 42 DraftKings points. Wow. I absolutely love that. Okay. So let's move on to Lions minus one at the Jets. It's a 44 and a half point total. Mike White appears to be playing in this game. He says he's playing and I believe he's practiced on a limited basis. And we're just going to have to monitor that as the week goes. But it looks like Mike White is going to play. I mean, obviously, Garrett Wilson is on this team. He gets a ton of targets. Zonovan Knight is a guy that looks like firmly as he's the number one running back. I think Elijah Moore is in play here as just a kind of a dark bro. If Corey Davis is out, which it looks like he is. Any thoughts here? You know, I've been on the Mike White train for a few weeks now, and obviously he's at home and he's playing a bad Detroit Lions defense. Well, I shouldn't say that. Detroit Lions have been better. They've been better against the run specifically, not so much the pass. So I do think there's a potential option to have a Mike Whitestack here to Garrett Wilson
Starting point is 00:22:52 or maybe a double stack, whether that second guy be Zonovan Knight or Elijah Moore. Am I crazy or is that potentially in play? I think it could be in play. I'm always very cautious with the Lions when they're playing away from home, outdoors, not in a domed environment. So I'm mostly going to be off the Lions.
Starting point is 00:23:10 I shouldn't say mostly. I'm definitely going to be off the Lions side. I like Zonovan Knight a lot. I think that he is in a great spot here. The usage, you can't deny it there. I think he's also going to have all the opportunity catching passes out of the backfield as well. So he's just flat out underpriced. He's going to be popular. Not something I would recommend avoiding. I don't think you have to go all in on him necessarily, but he's someone that
Starting point is 00:23:35 I'm going to be playing personally. Everyone else in the game at this point, I'm not getting a ton of ownership on anyone else in the game. For those that are wondering about cash games, it sounds to me like Zonovan Knight would firmly be one of your candidates there. Yeah. Yeah. I think that you might play in cash games this week. You could three lineup or three running back build of Derek Henry, Alvin Kamara, Zonovan Knight, I think could be a build that gives you, frankly, a ton of upside. I mean, that's got six to seven touchdown upside with those two. And correct me if I'm wrong, though, and I'm talking about Alvin Kamara and ownership here.
Starting point is 00:24:14 His ownership, I can't imagine, is going to be in the range of Derek Henry or Zonovan Knight, right? No, it will not. I almost listed, spoiler alert on the cheat sheet. I almost listed Alvin Kamara in the contrarian spot. I think that through my work here, we might bump him up to the spot where he's just above that range. But as of right now, he's projecting around 8% owned contrarian spot. Speaking of spoiler alert, uh, that that's the one spot I haven't filled out on our, on our pre-production sheet. So I actually might steal that and put it out on Kamara.
Starting point is 00:24:45 We have another eight games to go, so maybe I'll take something else. I do want to mention that the Lions are pretty aggressive on defense. They play a lot of man coverage. And Garrett Wilson eats up man very, very well. So I think he's very interesting in cash as well. I think you could play Garrett Wilson ends on of the night in cash, and you don't have to play Mike White with it. I think those guys are going to eat up a ton of volume. So let's go to, Mike, we're going to go to your squad. We're going to go to
Starting point is 00:25:10 the Chiefs minus 14 at the Texans. It's a 49 and a half point total. I think there's now expectations on the Texans that they are going to be able to move the ball like they did against Dallas. And I certainly think you could make the argument against the Chiefs secondary that they should have a slightly easier time. With that said, it was a pretty tough loss for the Texans, and I wonder how they're going to come out. It does look like Brandon Cooks might play, which I think will disappoint some people because I think everybody wants to be on the train that we were already on last week, which, of course, is the Chris Moore train.
Starting point is 00:25:43 So either way, whether Brandon Cooks is back or not, Mike, I like this game a lot. And I like Mahomes. I like Juju. I love Pacheco. And I think a lot of people are going to like Isaiah Pacheco. And I like Chris Moore on the other side. I think if Brandon Cooks is back, I still play Chris Moore at 4,200
Starting point is 00:26:00 because I think he's earned plenty of targets, particularly – listen, if Cooks is back, I mean, I think we're going plenty of targets, particularly, listen, if Cooks is back, I mean, I think we're going to see Chris Moore in the slot, you know, for a majority of the game, maybe it's Amari Rogers, I'm not sure, but I think Chris Moore is still a tremendous value at 4,200. How are you playing this game? Are you playing this game? Yeah, I'm definitely playing the game. I like Patrick Mahomes too. Honestly, I think he's going to have, you know, depending on how long he plays deep into the game with any luck, we'll get all four quarters, but it might be only three, three and a half. I think he has three to four touchdowns in this game and can kind of get there. Thing to keep in mind this week too, is it is a 10 game slate,
Starting point is 00:26:38 not a 12, 13, 14 game slate. So I do like Mahomes. I'll pair him a little bit with Travis Kelsey, not planning to pair him with anyone else. As of right now, I don't mostly be either Mahomes naked or Mahomes to Kelsey, but I do absolutely love Chris Moore once again. And I will be playing Chris Moore, even if Brandon cooks is back. I think Chris Moore is the guy there and I fully
Starting point is 00:27:06 expect him to approach double digit targets again this week. So the Mahomes, let me ask you this because my homes to Kelsey certainly makes sense. It's kind of expensive, but on this slate, I think you can get away with that because there's a lot of value that's already kind of opening up with that said, what about my homes and Pacheco and your game, of course, is Mahomes is going to spread it out, and we're not going to see the McKinnon game from last week. We're going to see Pacheco really kind of grinding it out after Mahomes throws his two or three touchdowns. Hopefully it's three or four touchdown passes.
Starting point is 00:27:35 So I guess my question is, do you like Pacheco, or do you think it's just too much of a potential split between him and McKinnon? And the other question is, if you like Pacheco, would you ever play him with Patrick Mahomes? Yeah, I think you can play him with Patrick Mahomes. We talk about it a lot. I think it's a spot where you can simply go bet on Kansas City scoring 35 points in this game and hope that you're capturing almost all of them. I don't hate it. He's in play. I think the only way I would recommend doing it is if you don't like Alvin Kamara,
Starting point is 00:28:05 for some reason, dropping down from Kamara at 6,800 to Pacheco at 59. I think that's a good move. I don't know. I mean, you could play him instead of Zonovan Knight. Also, if you wanted to,
Starting point is 00:28:18 I would probably end up on a build that would have both of them because you're spending so much on Patrick Mahomes. You probably want to leave some salary left over for some pass catchers. But yeah, Pacheco's like fringe in the player pool as of right now, but not definitely not a must play at this point. Not projecting like Donovan Knight, not projecting like Alvin Kamara in terms of value. Gotcha. And for the record, Juju, in case people forgot or just weren't really focused on that game, he caught nine balls, had 11 targets, 74 yards.
Starting point is 00:28:52 And we know he's kind of the guy in that receiver quarry, and it's not Marcus Valdez-Scantling. It's basically Travis Kelsey, and then it's Juju Smith-Schuster, and then sometimes, of course, Jarek McKinnon gets into the conversation. I don't think we're going to see as much Jarek McKinnon this week in terms of production, because I just don't think they're going to be pushed to have Jarek McKinnon in the game like we will probably see in the playoffs. I think we're going to see Jarek McKinnon all over the field once we get to the extremely
Starting point is 00:29:17 meaningful games for the Chiefs later on in the season. OK, meaningful games. Let's go to the Eagles minus nine at the Bears. It's a 48 and a half point total. This is a game I'm really struggling with, Mike, because I haven't been on, and speaking of meaningful, I think this is meaningful for Jalen Hurts
Starting point is 00:29:34 because I think he's probably the MVP this year. I guess it's between him and Patrick Mahomes, but put a couple more games like he's been doing over the past couple of weeks and he's firmly the MVP, Mike. And I've been struggling here because I haven't played a lot of Jalen Hurts lately. And his production has been, his efficiency and his production have been just off the charts. And I like a lot of quarterbacks this week. So I don't want to just say like, I'm playing this guy
Starting point is 00:29:58 and I'm playing this guy and I'm playing this guy. Jalen Hurts is the one guy I'm just undecided on. So tell me one way or the other, where are you? I am in on Jalen Hurts. Absolutely love him this week. I have certain theories on certain players. I like that he's playing opposite of Justin Fields, someone who can really rack up the rushing yards. My theory is he looks to run a little bit more when he sees it on the other sidelines a little bit and gets to play in this kind of matchup. So I think this game has sneaky shootout potential written all over it, despite being the teams that are involved in terms of the Bears and being a road game. I think that fields can do just enough to create some problems and put up some points. So I do like Jalen Hurts a lot here.
Starting point is 00:30:45 And one thing that I really, really, really like about him is my projected ownership on it. I'm trying to remember exactly where I've got him. Let's see, about 10%. So it's not, you know, he's not going way above Patrick Mahomes. He's not way above Herbert, not way above Burrow. You know, typically in above Burrow. Um, you know, typically in this kind of a spot, we would normally see him be closer to 20%, right?
Starting point is 00:31:14 I think it's getting a little bit of a discount. I don't think enough people want to play him. He's the most expensive quarterback on the slate at 8,200. Any thoughts on playing Justin Fields in this one? I'm staying away from it personally. Yeah, me too. But if I had to play one of the two, it would definitely be Jalen Hurts. No, and I'm going to stay away from him as well. Jalen Hurts, are you stacking him?
Starting point is 00:31:38 Okay, so I think you can play him naked. I think you can play him with A.J. Brown, who has been hyper-efficient on not that many targets. So I don't know that I want to lean on A.J. Brown, even though he's been just as efficient as Jalen Hurts has been in terms of passing and running the ball. I think Devontae Smith, especially if Dallas Goddard is not going to be playing and we're not sure if he's going to play or not, but you know, Devontae Smith's targets have gone up since Dallas Goddard has gone out. I don't think you can say the same about A.J. Brown. Where is the stack here? The stack would the stack would be AJ Brown. If I had to do it,
Starting point is 00:32:06 I'm not going to most likely not going to stack. Um, and I like AJ Brown as a standalone play as well in tournaments, uh, mostly because no one's going to play them. We're talking two to 3% owned. Uh, and he's just got way too much talent to, to be that low owned in my opinion. Um, but mostly with Jalen hurts, if I was going to play him, it's probably going to be naked. Um, hoping he gets the rushing touchdowns has the 50 to 70 rushing yards, um, gives you a nice solid floor with a ton of upside. And there's a couple tight ends that I really like on this slate and Cole commit isn't necessarily one of them, but at 4k, does he make it into the conversation?
Starting point is 00:32:47 Is he in your tight end top three that we're going to get to soon? He is. Cole Komet is there. I do like him in this particular matchup. I like the targets. I think that at 4K with the quarterback that he's got in what should be a guaranteed neutral or trailing game script for most of the way, yeah, yeah. Give me some Cole commit. Yeah. I like Cole commit a lot and I'm going to have some tournament lineups that have
Starting point is 00:33:10 two tight ends for the record and Cole commit is going to be one of them. And we're going to get to who the other one's going to be. He's probably going to be really chalky, which I'm going to ask you about when we get to that Dallas game, Mike, but before we get to the Dallas game, we have one other game I want to talk about, but I don't want to talk about it for long. It's the Steelers plus two and a half at the Panthers. It's a 37 and a half point total. I mean, not much I like in this game. I'm not sure if Kenny Pickett's going to play. If he doesn't, then it's the Mason Rudolph experience.
Starting point is 00:33:34 The Panthers, we were wondering about DJ Moore on the Tuesday solo pod. And because we were wondering about that, I know people, the automatic pivot for people is, oh, we'll go to Terrace Marshall now. Well, I was going to be all over LaVisca Chanel at 3,400, which is an infamous number now because that's what Chris Moore was last week, which everybody that's listening here, I think was kind of on Chris Moore, including Soulfly, who has a very nice comment. He says, Chris Moore was a great call last week. This is the best DFS show, very underrated. Well, we really appreciate that. And Soulfly, one of the ways you can make it not underrated
Starting point is 00:34:07 is hitting the like button and reviewing the podcast on Apple or Spotify because that gives us a little bit more attention, a few more eyes, and certainly Mike and I and everybody that produces the show, including Zach and Frank, we really, really appreciate that. Anything in this game, Mike, that you like, or do we just move on? LaVisca Chenault is playable, depending on how things shake out. He's also on the injury report himself, but I think he's going to be fine. Other than that, no, I don't have a ton of interest in the game other than $3,400 receivers that you fill in to build out lineups.
Starting point is 00:34:40 I think those are always fine, but that's about it here. Yeah, that's it for me. If DJ Moore is out, you know, I do think LaVisca, they're going to use him in a lot of creative ways. We've seen them do that. And when LaVisca gets the ball in his hands, you know, it's just a shame that we haven't really seen him on the field that much the last few years because he's pretty dynamic. He was dynamic in college at Colorado, and I thought he was being drafted to be dynamic with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It didn't work out. And so hopefully Carolina knows how to utilize him. It's almost like the Cordero Patterson thing where for the first five, six, seven years of his career,
Starting point is 00:35:14 people didn't know how to use him. Now, Patterson has more elite speed than LaVisca Chenault, I believe. But the point is some of these guys just need the right team and the right scheme. And then all of a sudden you recognize, oh, this is the guy I thought he was. Okay, let's go. That's my little soapbox moment. I have one more soapbox moment that I'm going to get to in the Patriots Raiders game. Stay tuned for that. Cowboys minus four and a half at the Jaguars, a 48 point total. Mike, this is probably my favorite game. And I don't think that's breaking news. I think a lot of people are going to like this game. I haven't been that impressed with Dak over the last couple of weeks, but I do think this is sort of a, I don't want to say get right spot because he hasn't been horrible, but you know, who is horrible. I hate to say it. I
Starting point is 00:35:52 don't want to sound disrespectful, but the Jags defense is, is, is trash. This is not a good defense. And I think it's a really good time for us to remember that Dak Prescott is a good quarterback. I think this is one of those games where the game plan very well could be Dak. You're just, you're just going to throw it around the yard and this game is going to go high and we're going to, we're going to do it with your arm.
Starting point is 00:36:12 We're not going to lean on Zeke and Pollard as much as we have in the last couple of games. And so I like Dak Prescott a lot. I like Dalton Schultz. He's my favorite tight end. I mean, Evan Ingram, he had 15 targets last week,
Starting point is 00:36:23 caught 11 of them. I just think that's crazy. And then of course we have the receivers on, on both sides of the ball. Is this one of your favorite games and how are you playing it? Yeah. Um, I I'm not as heavily exposed to it as it sounds like you're going to be, but it's because I like one other game that I don't think a lot of people like I'm very heavy on it. However, I am going to have a ton of Dalton Schultz. Uh, the price point is just too good at 4,400, uh, bounce back spot for them. I know they got out of there with a win, but it's, it's a bounce back spot for Dallas for
Starting point is 00:36:54 sure. Um, on the road, I like the overall environment here for them. Frankly, I think it's going to be a competitive game. Um, so Dalton Schultz by far my favorite play here. Uh, but you've got to start to include Tony Pollard in any kind of player pool. You've got to include CeeDee Lamb a little bit. And then on the other side, honestly, I talk about bounce backs. It's hard to see another really poor game from Travis Etienne in this spot also.
Starting point is 00:37:21 Totally agree. And I mentioned him on the, on the Tuesday solo pod, because I think this is one of those situations where he's not going to get much ownership because he's been just really inefficient the last few weeks and he doesn't get targeted in the passing game. But this is a guy that's on the field about 80% of the time. And he gets all of the rushing work and it's a 48 point total. I just think it's a really smart play to play Travis Etienne and not just assume, Oh, I guess he's going to be bad the rest of the season. So I'm definitely going to be
Starting point is 00:37:49 playing Travis. I'm going to be double stacking deck in quite a few tournaments with like, let's say Dak, I might avoid the running backs. Although I think you can stack him with, with Pollard and another pass catcher, but I'm going to be doing some Dak CD lamb, Dalton Schultz, and bringing it back with Travis Etienne and maybe like a Zay Jones or Christian Kirk if I have the money to spend up there. Obviously, Evan Ingram's in play. I was saying on Tuesday, I'm not even necessarily chasing the 11 catches on 15 targets because I'll take half of that at 3,800. I'll literally take, I don't know, five catches on seven targets at 3,800, especially in a high total game. There's so many tight ends we like.
Starting point is 00:38:26 Is Evan Ingram in your top three? Evan Ingram is not in the top three for me. I totally get it and understand it. We'll see, but I don't want to play him as of now. There's one team that has been very, very good against the tight end, and that would be Dallas. By far the best so far this year. Better than Buffalo, better than the 49ers.
Starting point is 00:38:51 We're at the point in the season where it's a pretty significant sample size. I'm going to stay away from it personally and just play Schultz on the Dallas side. Love it. All right. That's good advice on that because you're right. The Cowboys are very, very good against the tight end. You know, who's not good against the tight end? The Arizona Cardinals. They are plus two and a half at the Broncos. It's a 37 and a half point total for the record. This is the first of the four o'clock games. There's two, four Oh five games, two, four 25 games. I always point that out because I want
Starting point is 00:39:21 people to understand when and where they can late swap. OK, so I don't like many people in this game. I think Dulcich and Judy are very much in play, however, whether it's Brett Rippon or Russell Wilson. I don't think Russell Wilson is going to play. I thought that was a pretty bad concussion. And for for the record, I don't know why you'd peddle Russell Wilson out there. Like, just let's let's see how Brett Rippon does against the Cardinals defense. And he should do OK. Right. Because the Cardinals back end is pretty bad. I'm not interested in any players in this game. It's a 37.5 point total.
Starting point is 00:39:50 But then again, do we go back to Dulcich and Judy, Mike? I don't mind it. I really, really don't mind it. I don't think I would expect the exact same result. But yeah, I think it's an okay spot to deploy them again, honestly. Um, and go ahead, go ahead. I was just going to say Judy's at 6,100 and I just wonder, does that get to a point where people are going to be like, uh, you know, I'm just, I'm a little shaky on that.
Starting point is 00:40:16 Yeah, I definitely think so. Um, and you know, it's not like he did what he did with massive volume. He was just really ran hot in terms of scoring touchdowns, right? You know, when you a three touchdown game, you're obviously running hot on scoring touchdowns. But when I'm talking three touchdown game like that, I'm expecting to see like 13, 14, 15 targets to get there. Certainly not nine. He caught eight of nine balls. That's incredibly efficient in that offense. If you've watched that offense
Starting point is 00:40:45 play throughout the year, having a day where you catch eight of nine balls is just an incredible performance in that offense. So I wouldn't expect that again. We saw him have 11 targets back in week seven against the Jets. Other than this, this was by far a season high. Makes a lot of sense. The opportunity was there. Kansas City at times also, the way that they were defending, Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the NFL so far against receivers like this. So I would caution a little bit on the Judy side. I will say, though, I did bet this game.
Starting point is 00:41:21 I have a bet on this game from the early edge mega preview on Tuesday. We have already beat the number on it, which is great. I bet this game at 36. I bet I took the over at 36. Keeps you alive at a very friendly score of 20 to 17, which this game has 20 to 17, frankly, written all over it. Um, so we did get the better of the number there. I don't know that I love playing it above 37 and a half at this point. Um, but I do think that, uh, the only other guy that I don't think a lot of people are going to play that projects really well for me still is Deandre Hopkins. Uh, he's going to see Sertan. Colt McCoy was not prepared to play that game. It sounds silly because he has been playing. You're never prepared to come in the game on the second snap, right? You're never prepared for that moment.
Starting point is 00:42:11 They were put behind because of that. He's able to prepare now at this point, he knows it's his going forward for a little bit. It's a lot like the Alvin Kamara thing. Deandre Hopkins, 7,700, even on his worst days, he's still routinely scoring you 15 fantasy
Starting point is 00:42:26 points. Um, yeah, I think you do a lot worse in tournaments than Hopkins here. What about Marquise Brown at 5,500? I only mentioned him because obviously he's, he's the deep threat. It's going to be probably less targets, but at 2,200 cheaper, knowing he can make a house call with Colton McCoy at the quarterback, would that be somebody that you'd consider as well? Maybe in a skinny stack with let's say Jerry Judy or Greg Dulcich? Yeah, I could see it. I could definitely see it. And I should caution that, too, with Hopkins.
Starting point is 00:42:52 That's more of a standalone play, not trying to skinny stack, not trying to do anything. That's just play them on your own. If you've got a lineup you want to be a little contrarian in. If I were trying to stack the game in a way, Brown would be the direction I'd be going. If I were trying to stack the game in a way, Brown would be the direction I'd be going. Yeah. And that's a good point because I didn't want to imply that if you're playing Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins, you must be considering a skinny stack because
Starting point is 00:43:14 this is not the game where you would need to force one in there at a 36 and a half point total with two backup quarterbacks. Speaking of, shout out to Colt McCoy, who's 36 years old and has been really on the wrong side of injury luck for a majority of his career. Not an elite talent, but an excellent backup quarterback. And he's always, always prepared. He played for Washington for a while, and I really, really respect his ethic and his work ethic and his game. Okay, let's move on to the second 405 game. It's the New England Patriots at the Las Vegas Raiders. It is, the Raiders are favored by one. It's a 44.5 point total. There's not much I like in this game, actually.
Starting point is 00:43:49 I mean, obviously, people are going to think about Josh Jacobs. They're going to think about Devontae Adams. I'm not going to be on either of them, Mike. On the other side of the ball, we're still waiting. I don't think Ramondre is playing. I'm just going to go ahead and say I don't think Ramondre is playing. But we're waiting to hear about Damian Harris. If he's playing, he's 5,800.
Starting point is 00:44:03 So my question is, if Damian Harris is playing, are you playing him? And if for some reason Damian Harris isn't playing, does Pierre Strong become like an autoplay? Yes. Pierre Strong becomes an autoplay and potentially someone I'm playing anyway. I don't really envision this scenario. What we've seen in the past where with Harris out, Ramondre was the guy and handled most of the touches. I don't envision Harris coming in and just handling all the touches if he does play. So for that reason, I think Strong is going to be relevant either way. Must play territory if they're both out for sure. So I've got interest in both, but most of my interest would be hoping they're all out,
Starting point is 00:44:47 or we get word that they're severely limited on the Damian Harris side and we get to play a lot of peer strong. Yeah. And keep in mind the 4k price tag, which is minimum price at running back that pricing came out before we knew Ramondre Stevenson was injured. So that's part of the reason. Cause I think if it came out after, I think maybe we would have seen draft Kings. I don't know, Mike, you tell me maybe he'd be 5,100 or 4,600 or something like that. Yeah. I think 4,600 minimum, probably a flat 5k. Yeah. Yeah. So we're getting, we're certainly getting a break on Pierre strong again, if Damien Harris or Ramondre doesn't play, but yeah, you're right, Mike, if Damien Harris plays, you know, he's been injured. It's not like he's going to come back and he's going to get 22 rush attempts. That's just not how it works
Starting point is 00:45:26 coming off an injury. So Pierre Strong still potentially has some value against the Raiders defense that really can give up a ton through the rushing game. Are you on Jacobs or Devante Adams or any other Raiders on that side of the ball? I'm definitely out on Jacobs. I'm very worried about his injuries at this point. I like Devontae Adams quite a bit. The other thing I'll mention when you're building rosters, if you want to play Pierre Strong, make sure you're playing him in the flex spot, not the running back spot on DraftKings.
Starting point is 00:45:53 You can utilize late swap and have some pretty decent options still should you want to get out of it based on what news. If it's truly a situation where it's a game time and we don't have this information before lineups lock, just quickly looking at it, you should be able to swap to Dulcich. You could be able to swap to Kendall Hinton, Foster Moreau for Vegas. There's a number of legitimate playable plays that you can late swap to if you want to leave your lineups the ability to play Pierre Strong. Very, very good advice. And again, keep late swap in mind. Keep those flex spots in mind in terms of
Starting point is 00:46:32 keeping them, giving them the ability to switch off of them in the Saturday slate as well. Make sure you don't have one of the guys in the Colts game, the Colts Vikings game in your flex spots that you can switch off. So, okay, let's go to one of the, one of the two 425 games. This one is going to be very interesting to a lot of people. The total has kind of wavered here and there. I'm seeing 46 and a half in places. I'm seeing 47 and a half in other places, but we see the Titans plus three at the chargers. Again, I'm looking at 47 and a half as a total. The Titans have a ton of injuries on defense, particularly in the secondary. They can't really cover anybody. I think Derrick Henry is a pretty obvious play against the Los Angeles Chargers who can't stop the run. I think we're going to see a lot of stacking in this game,
Starting point is 00:47:15 or I think we're going to see at least a lot of Justin Herbert. We're going to see a lot of Derrick Henry. Are you in on this game? And if so, how are you playing it? Yeah, I am in on this game. I like Derrick Henry. It's really going to come down to, honestly, my Derrick Henry exposure is likely going to be impacted by that New England situation. Like if I'm able to play Pierre Strong and get Henry in there, I probably am going to be doing that. If I'm not able to have a $4,000 running back, I probably have a little less Derrick Henry overall. Um, as far as the charges though, I like them. Um, I, I think it's a great spot for them. I think they're going to continue to win football games. Um, the guy that no one is probably going to play that I like is Gerald Everett, a tight end. Uh, I like this spot for him at 43. I think it's an excellent pivot away from Dalton
Starting point is 00:48:06 Schultz, um, may or may not get there, but that that's one that I like. Um, and as far as the other receivers, I think they're fine. I love Mike Williams upside. Um, I love Keenan Allen volume. Austin Eckler is in play. Um, you could basically game stack this one up if you want to. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I'm going to be able to get to all of it until we have more information. Like I want more information on what we're doing with Patriots running backs. I want more information on the Houston situation to where we know if we're for sure jamming Chris Moore in or not, or if it's just like an okay play.
Starting point is 00:48:45 So that's kind of where I'm at on it now. They're all on my radar, but no one's like automatic lock button play for me at this point. Yeah. And I think in cash, I think Justin Herbert is probably going to be one of two cash game quarterbacks that I play. And it's likely I'm playing Derek Henry in my cash games as well. So I'm really like those two. I don't think personally, I don't think I'm playing much Austin Eckler this
Starting point is 00:49:10 week, but you know, I'm not mad at you if you want to play him. It's just, you know, we talked about it on Tuesday, Mike, it's one of those things where now that Justin Herbert has his full compliment of receivers back and he has all of his tight ends healthy. I think there's probably a few less targets going to Eckler's way, right? Yeah, there definitely should be. Definitely should be fewer targets going that way. Okay, so let's move on to the last game. This is the game we were teasing.
Starting point is 00:49:34 Oh, and by the way, before we get to the Cincinnati-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game, my other soapbox thing was about Josh Jacobs. I did this whole long thing, Mike, on Tuesday, and I was like looking at the camera and I was pleading for Josh Jacobs to just use the finger injury as, hey, sit out the rest of the season. You really got nothing to play for at this point. You've got one chance to cash in as a running back.
Starting point is 00:49:56 Literally one. It's not the Kyler Murray situation where he's already cashed in on an extension and he's a quarterback, so he probably has like two or three contracts left in his career. If you're a running back, you're, you're basically used and damaged goods after your fourth or fifth year. And that assumes you haven't already been injured and escorted out of the
Starting point is 00:50:14 league. So this is the last chance or one of the last chances for Josh Jacobs to cash in. He probably gets franchise tagged. Hopefully he doesn't. But the point is, I just think as a running back, if your team is done and you have been completely overused, I don't know how else to say it. This guy is a touch machine. He makes the Derrick Henry touches from a couple seasons ago look like really nothing. I just think Josh Jacobs should sit out the rest of the year and at least get one more good contract.
Starting point is 00:50:39 OK, Bengals at the Bucs. It's a 44 and a half point total. The Bengals are favored going into Tampa Bay, minus 3.5. I mean, the injuries for the Bengals make this game very interesting from just a, you know, who's going to win this game standpoint or against the spread standpoint. And I know you have a pretty strong take on how this game is going to play out. So I'll let you talk. Yeah, I like the Bucs a lot in this particular game. So one of my biggest wagers of the year on Tampa Bay plus three and a half. We've also sprinkled them on the money line here, but very worried about the weapons for
Starting point is 00:51:15 Joe Burrow and the Bengals at this point. Must win status essentially for Tampa Bay. Not truly, but definitely a spot where they would like to win a big football game. So I like the individual matchups. I'm very worried about the weapons, though, on Burrow's side. Higgins very clearly not right. Was not on the injury report ahead of last game. Didn't really play. That was the second time we've seen that happen to him so far this season. I'm expecting somewhat of a similar result again in this one. I think that they're not going to have success on the ground with Mixon or Pirine against this Bucs defense.
Starting point is 00:51:51 I think it's an excellent spot in this particular home game for Tom Brady. As far as why I like Tom Brady in DFS, he's one of my favorite quarterbacks here this week. Look at Tom Brady's game log. It is incredible in one particular category. You pull it up here. He's thrown 55 passes last week, 54 passes the week before. 43 before that. He has a game of 58 against LA, 44, 49, 40, 52 against Atlanta,
Starting point is 00:52:23 52 against Kansas City. We are routinely attempting 50 passes here with a quarterback. I view this one as very similar to when they played Kansas City early in the season. They played Kansas City early in the season, 52 passing attempts, 385 yards, three touchdowns. I believe this is going to be a shootout. I think it's going to be an incredibly competitive game. And as far as individual matchups go, this is a great matchup. Number of the Bucs receivers, in my opinion. Tom Brady has got some life here in this game.
Starting point is 00:52:59 And he is $5,500. $5,500 for a quarterback who is very likely to attempt 50 passes. Oh, I totally get it. And this makes a lot of sense, particularly because, Mike, nobody's going to be on Tom Brady, right? Even at $5,500? Nobody. Absolutely nobody. I've got him projected at 2.5% ownership. Wow.
Starting point is 00:53:22 I mean, this is a range price-wise where we saw like, for example, Mike White last week and, and, and some of these guys that, you know, the Russell Wilson's and, you know, you know, name, name a play. I guess there were some good, good guys in the 5,500, 5,600, 5,700 range last week, but Tom Brady. So who are you pairing him with though? And are you bringing it back with the likes of Jamar Chase? We are bringing it back with Jamar Chase for sure. I'm pairing him with chris godwin first and foremost i love godwin in this spot um like 6700 the price point is like not obvious value uh however the volume is there right look at the target share nine targets in the last game
Starting point is 00:54:00 against san francisco very difficult matchup um you, didn't have a huge game, right? They didn't score very many points in that game. They scored seven total points in the game, right? Uh, he still managed to have five receptions, 54 yards, didn't find the end zone, but we're seeing games at 13, 13, eight, 10, 11, 13, 12. It's hard to argue with the volume here in this particular spot. I love Chris Goblin. I think he's got a ton of upside in this individual matchup. So I love it. I love it. That sounds, sounds like a contrarian lineup and I got no problems with it. I'm going to have to include that here and there. Let me read you the start of a lineup of a Tom Brady lineup and tell me if you like the players in it. Tom Brady, Derek Henryry alvin kamara chris godwin
Starting point is 00:54:46 jamar chase dalton schultz pierre strong if i mean it's it's got all the upside in the world if we get the situation where we get to play pierre strong you get a good game from kamara you've got derrick henry in there the ceiling like Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, Jamar Chase, all four of those players have a like realistic shot of scoring two touchdowns, right? Yes, that's absolutely true. And for the record, if Pierre Strong is, is not playing, or excuse me, if he's not going to be in the lineup, because we hear Damian Harris is playing, you don't want to play Pierre Strong. There are other guys to pivot to. Cause I assuming, I'm assuming that was a sort of a flex play, right? That was going to be in the flex spot. Yeah. So there's other players that we've
Starting point is 00:55:31 talked about on this show, including the likes of Chris Moore, who's only 200 more than Pierre Strong that you could potentially play if you wanted to go that route. I love it, Mike. So, okay, listen, that is the 10 game slate. That's the, that's the game by game preview, but we're not done yet. Right. Cause we have Mike's top three at each position. Hopefully you all that are in here and there's a lot of you in here have hit the like button. Please do that if you can. And we're going to do that. And then we're going to do our cheat sheets and then we're going to get out of here. So Mike, let's do it. Let's do your top three at quarterback, running back, back wide receiver and tight end
Starting point is 00:56:05 quarterback number one tom brady just told you all about him love this particular spot i think they win the game uh patrick mahomes love him in this spot as well i think that he's going to be on the field just enough uh again remember 10 game slate not 13 14 games and then number three Jalen Hurts love his individual floor and upside that he's got I think that game turns into an absolute shootout personally so I'll be playing a lot of Jalen Hurts at running back number one Alvin Kamara I think it's a great bounce back spot for him after facing two tough defenses in a row had the bye week now they get. Atlanta is two things, really. They're decent on offense, terrible on defense. They end up in a lot of shootouts.
Starting point is 00:56:50 Number two, Derek Henry. Number three, I've listed Zonovan Knight. However, we're going to put a slash Patriots. If the Patriots situation is there, we're playing Pierre Strong. Keep that on your radar. Wide receiver, number one, Chris Godwin, pairing him with Tom Brady. The volume is undeniable here, in my opinion. We're talking 12 to 15 targets in this game. Jamar Chase, number two. It's all Cincy should have available in this game, in my opinion. I think he gets there through sheer volume.
Starting point is 00:57:19 We all know the upside he possesses. Number three, Chris Moore. Love Chris Moore. We'll use him individually, use him in Patrick Mahomes lineups. I think he's going to have all the upside in the world there. For tight end, we're going to Dalton Schultz. Number one here, price point play. $4,400. Great matchup. Going to be popular. I'm going to be right there with the crowd on that one. Number two, Travis Kelsey.
Starting point is 00:57:46 I'll pay up a little bit. Gives you some roster differentiation. Not a ton of people are going to pay up for Travis Kelsey at this spot. Number three, Cole Komet. I will mostly be using him in lineups opposite of Jalen Hurts. I like him in this spot. I think that he's going to have the opportunity here with Justin Fields. Not playing Justin Fields, though.
Starting point is 00:58:06 Going to use him in the Jalen Hurts lineups. Okay. Absolutely love it. I am definitely on a lot of these plays. You convinced me to throw in some Tom Brady, but I was already on Patrick Mahomes. You convinced me on Jalen Hurts. I'll just kind of note I'll also be on Dak and maybe some Justin Herbert.
Starting point is 00:58:21 I haven't decided. But I absolutely love the Kamara Henry Zonovan Knight. I like Chris Godwin. I love Jamar Chase, love Chris Moore. And I don't know how much Kelsey I'm going to get around to, but he'll be in at least one of my Patrick Mahomes stacks in a tournament. And I love Dalton Schultz and I love Cole Komet. So I'm on board with most of these, Mike. So let me get to my cheat sheet. And I kind of gave you a little bit of a spoiler because I told you how much I liked the Dallas Jacksonville Jaguars game. So my favorite stack actually is a quarterback to a tight end. Although I think you could go quarterback to receiver.
Starting point is 00:58:53 Obviously it's Dak Prescott at 6,200 to Dalton Schultz at 4,400. I think Dalton Schultz gives you a lot of flexibility to throw in CeeDee Lamb if you want, or Tony Pollard and run it back with whatever Jacksonville receiver, or maybe even Travis CTN that you want, or Tony Pollard and run it back with whatever Jacksonville receiver or maybe even Travis Etienne that you want. Chalk, it's going to be Derrick Henry at 8,000. Value is going to be Chris Moore at 4,200. He only went up 800. That's a pretty significant rise, but you're coming from a base of 3,400.
Starting point is 00:59:18 So hopefully, even with Brandon Cooks back, we see a lot of Chris Moore, again, in a very, very negative game script. I think Houston got Kansas City's attention, right see a lot of Chris Moore, again, in a very, very negative game script. I think Houston got Kansas City's attention, right, from what they did last week. So I think Kansas City, they're going to be full throttle, I think, for three quarters because they saw what Houston did with Dallas. So I think you're getting three quarters at least, at least out of Patrick Mahomes, out of Travis Kelsey, out of this entire offense. Contrarian play, I'm going to steal Mike McClure's sort of semi-pseudo contrarian play. It's an outright steal. It's Alvin Kamara at 6,800. And then my fade is going to be Josh Jacobs at 8,100. It goes with my soapbox plea, but at the same time, he does have an injury issue. And don't forget, he had the calf strain issue as well. And I could see scenarios
Starting point is 01:00:02 where his work is a little bit limited relative to the last few weeks. So that's my cheat sheet. Mike, it's on you. Stacking it up with Tom Brady to Chris Godwin. Love this stack. I've already mentioned $5,500 going to throw 50 passing attempts. Hasn't really thrown for less than 240 yards. Still has a touchdown in all these games. Just hasn't shown the upside since the Kansas City game projects just like that Kansas City game. Chalk play, Jamar Chase. I think he's going to be popular by the time the slate starts. I like him a lot though. Makes a lot of sense. Bring back on the Tom Brady stack. Value play, I'm going to go ahead and list Pierre Strong here. I think he's going to ultimately still be relevant enough for the Patriots in this particular matchup.
Starting point is 01:00:45 So we're going to assume that he's playing. And then my contrarian play, A.J. Brown. I like the spot for A.J. Brown individually. I think that he just has too much upside to be projecting at 2% owned on a slate like this. Again, I keep mentioning it's a slate that is only 10 games. The payoff that you get when he outscores someone like Jamar Chase relative to ownership here, which is very possible for him to do. It's so great that he's got to be included there.
Starting point is 01:01:13 And then my fade, a guy that has been a staple this podcast all season, Amonra St. Brown. We are fading Amonra St. Brown. Look, the Lions have been great. They're a great story, tough task against the jets defense, tough task playing outdoors. Williams is now there. There's a lot more mouths to feed as the team gets a little more healthy. Uh, the price point is obviously reflecting what his body of work has been this season.
Starting point is 01:01:39 He is only $200 less than AJ Brown. He's only $500 less than Jamar chase. He is only $200 less than A.J. Brown. He's only $500 less than Jamar Chase. He is more expensive than DeAndre Hopkins. I think it's time to get off the Amon Ross St. Brown train. Yeah, I tend to agree with you there, especially. I think Amon Ross St. Brown will still get a bunch of targets against the Jets, but with the full – Goff has all of his receivers. He's playing away from home, like I said, Mike. It's probably not the time to play Amon Ross St. Brown,
Starting point is 01:02:06 especially since he's still picking up some ownership. It's not like it would be some crazy contrarian play if you played Amon Ross St. Brown. So that certainly makes sense. Okay, last thing, Mike, before we get out of here. We've got a pretty good NFC West matchup tonight. It's Brock Purdy and company. He looks like he's going to be the starting quarterback for the 49ers.
Starting point is 01:02:23 And they're at Geno Smith. They're at the Seattle Seahawks. How do you see this game going? Do you have a play? Did you, did you release a play on the early edge show or on sports line and any showdown plays that are, are of particular interest to you? I haven't released any official plays on there throughout the week on CBS sports HQ, where I preview some of the games, talk about them there. I had the initial play on the under. I still lean that way in the game personally. I am opposite of everyone that I've seen on this game so far. A lot of people like the over. A lot of people like Seattle plus three and
Starting point is 01:02:59 a half in this spot. It is a difficult in-division matchup here. We all know the situation with Brock Purdy. He's also one play away from not finishing this game. It's very, very clear with the injury designation he's carrying in here. I like the Niners minus three. Everyone else loves, loves, loves Seattle, and I understand why that they do. I like McCaffrey. I liked his receiving prop, 35.5 receiving yards, I think is a very good look i like brandon iuk a little bit what i'm most interested in watching and what i will be speculating on the most in terms of dfs and potentially some of the player props george
Starting point is 01:03:39 kittle seattle is one of the worst teams in the NFL defending the tight end. This to me projects as a spot where without Debo on the field, this could be where George Kittle reminds us that we once viewed him as someone like Travis Kelsey. This is a spot that I could see him kind of reminding us of that. So I am opposite of everyone there. I like the Niners. I think that their, their defense is
Starting point is 01:04:06 absolutely legit. And I think it's going to be a tough sled for Geno Smith here. Any lower end plays that you like for showdown? I'm going to mention three names. Marquise Goodwin, who's been really great, honestly, especially lately. Juwan Jennings, Ray McLeod, knowing that Debo Samuel's not going to play. Any of, make it to maybe a primary or an optimal showdown lineup. They might be honest with you. We were recording earlier today than normal. So I actually did not run anything ahead of the, the show for showdown tonight,
Starting point is 01:04:38 but my gut tells me, I'll look at the pricing really quick here that everything that I've seen, I don't think we're going to play a ton of them. Goodwin is okay. Yeah, Jennings, it looks like I'll be playing kickers and defenses a little bit more. Yeah, gotcha. That makes sense, actually. By the way, the early edge, they do shows every day. Everybody that's watching probably knows that,
Starting point is 01:05:05 but I'll be on the 730 on Thursday night football show. And George Kittle is going to make an appearance from somebody as the first touchdown score, the gem score, if you will. If you're a fan of the show, you know what that is. So there's a certain somebody that is not in club cachet yet. And that person may or may not have picked George Kittle as the first touchdown score. So I just wanted to, I see you, Derek Graham.
Starting point is 01:05:26 I see you. I know you know that reference. So hopefully everybody knows the reference. Catch the Early Edge tonight at 730. I do the prop show, by the way, tomorrow with Prop Stars, with Dave Richard, with Jonathan Coachman. That's at 4 o'clock tomorrow on the Early Edge YouTube channel. We'll be with you for all the games, all the props, all the bets.
Starting point is 01:05:42 But fantasy football today, DFS, will be with you again on Tuesday. If you have any questions about the Saturday slate or the Sunday slate, feel free to direct message me or tweet at us, whatever you want to do. But for now, we're going to leave you until Tuesday. And I hope you enjoy the Saturday slate. I hope you've registered for that contest. I hope you enjoy the Sunday slate
Starting point is 01:05:59 and you've registered for that contest. And until Tuesday, we'll see you then.

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