Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 16 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast)

Episode Date: December 22, 2022

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 16 DFS contest over on Draftkings- https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/138868201 Join our $5 Week 16 Xmas DFS contest over on Draftkings- https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/138868216 Sia Nejad and Mike McClure are previewing the NFL DFS Week 16 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (3:20)- Texans at Titans (6:30)- Giants at Vikings (13:40)- Saints at Browns (18:00)- Bills at Bears (25:00)- Seahawks at Chiefs (32:40)- Bengals at Patriots (34:40)- Lions at Panthers (36:00)- Falcons at Ravens (39:20)- Commanders at 49ers (42:48)- Eagles at Cowboys (51:00)- MIKES TOP 3 (53:56)- Week 16 CHEAT SHEET 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fall is almost gone, but have you sipped enough Starbucks Fall Faves? Enough of the Pumpkin Spice Latte, the cinnamony pumpkin-flavored legend, or the new Iced Apple Crisp Non-Dairy Chai, so silky, so smooth. How about the new Pecan Crunch-Out Latte? Nutty, buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor. Trick question, of course. It's the last call for fall, so don't miss out on your fall faves.

Next stop, Starbucks. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert, as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals,

be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. DFS, my name is Sian Ajad. It is Thursday early evening. You know what that means. That means it's time for our game-by-game breakdown. It's time for Mike's top three.

It's time for our cheat sheet. And it's time for Mike to pop open a, what is it? Liquid death. I think I just heard it though. The audience missed it because it was right before we went live. Is it a liquid death today, Mike? It is not a liquid death today, Sia. It is not. However, I had a liquid death earlier today, but we're going to have a little blood orange here. It's an Italian soda. It's good stuff too, but no liquid death today. I did throw you off cracking that.

I realized we were almost live. I wanted to crack it before we were live. Oh, no. Mike, I like the crack while we're live. It inspires me to push through to the rest of the show. So speaking of the rest of the show, we have our 10-game slate that we're about to go over. We're going to do our cheat sheet, of course, Mike's top three at each position. And then we're going to touch on the Sunday slate a little bit. You know,

it's kind of weird. It's role reversal from last week, right? Where we had three games on Saturday last week, and then we had the 10 game slate on Sunday. We've got the 10 game slate on Saturday, which, you know, we don't want to, and I did this on solo pod. We didn't want to necessarily go game by game for all 13 of these games. So what we're going to do is we're going to go game by game for the Saturday slate. And then we're definitely going to touch on that Sunday slate. So once we do the cheat sheet in the top three, I think normally you're conditioned to be like, OK, I guess the show is over. Maybe I can get out of here. Not the case this week.

So once we do our cheat sheet, we're actually going to go right into some roster construction, some plays that Mike and I like for the Sunday slate. Reminder, everybody, the FFT DFS contest is live for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday's 100 people, and it's almost full. Saturday is 200 people, and it's only about half full at this point, so you've got time to join that. It's $5 for each contest. Mike, first of all, how you doing?

I guess maybe we'll share some showdown thoughts at the end of the show at some point. We know we have the Jets Jags coming up tonight. I think Mike and I, spoiler alert, I think we both kind of like the Jets here, whether you're taking it. I think Moneyline's probably the play. You can get it at minus 130 for all you bettors out there. But Mike, how are you feeling about tonight's game? But more importantly, how are you feeling about this 10-game slate? It's weird, right, because we have so much weather that we kind of have to be concerned with, right? So much weather to be concerned with, not only on the 10-game slate, but tonight as well.

But I'm feeling good about tonight's game. Do lean towards the Jets. You know, it's fun to have a Jets-Jaguars game in Week 16 that does have playoff implications. It's absolutely beautiful if you're a fan of either one of those franchises. But as far as the 10-game slate, I actually really, really like it. It feels more like a three- to four-game slate for me personally, but I've got my stances. I'll be heavy, heavy, heavy, overweight on those stances. And I like it because I think there are a lot of games out there

that you should not be touching at all this week. Yeah, and I'm very much looking forward to hearing your stances and we'll get right to it. Um, we're going to go there. There's a, the game, the second game, we're going to talk about Mike. I'm really intrigued by, and I'm intrigued by in a lot of different ways, maybe to pivot away from it, but I want to get your thoughts on it. But the first game I just want to talk about real quick is the Texans plus three at the Titans. It's a 35 and a half point total. You'll see, I mean, if you haven't looked at the slate yet, everybody that's listening and I see everybody in the chat, I see you, Andrew and Roy and Alex and Buffalo, Buffalo woes, Mark Henderson,

Mike Chavez, always in here, Eric Powell, appreciate everybody being in here. Make sure you hit the like button, make sure we review the podcast and make sure you get into our FFT DFS contest. But you know, for those of you go Friars says somebody from Providence, apparently, um, most of you are probably looking at this game and you're thinking, well, I'll probably take the Derrick Henry piece and I'll move along. Or maybe you're just so intimidated by the game. You don't want the Derrick Henry piece. Cause Ryan Tannehill is not going to play and just don't know how things are going to flow. It's a low total 35 and a half, but that's not as low as you think, because there's a lot of totals that are actually lower

than this. Maybe you just want to stay away from all these games. But Mike, let me ask you two questions. Is Derrick Henry the only guy you like in this game? And has Derrick Henry's stock dropped or risen since the news of Ryan Tannehill? Or has it just stayed where it would have been had Ryan Tannehill been the quarterback this week? I think it's mostly staying the same, but it's still very high. Very, very high on Derrick Henry here. I love him this week.

It's hard not to. He's absolutely crushed this team, no matter who's handing him the football. I like having Willis back there. He is going to at least be somewhat of a threat to run. I also like that we've seen Derrick Henry elevating his game in the passing game of late. I think that's going to be critical here. I expect to see a ton of RPO stuff, a ton of stuff that's going to give options for Derrick Henry.

But most importantly for DFS, the touchdown equity is incredibly high. We still should see some wildcat from Derrick Henry in the red zone. Just all the touches, all the usage there. It's cold. It's nasty. It's a spot where Derek Henry, like Derek Henry is difficult to tackle in any game, but in these conditions, he's really difficult to tackle. We saw it the other night, a little bit with AJ Dillon in the Packers game against the Rams when it's that cold. It's so hard to bring a guy down like that, especially a team that doesn't have a lot to play for in the

Texans, right? They're not competing for anything really at this point. Business decisions might be made when it's that cold outside trying to tackle someone like Derrick Henry. I love Derrick Henry this week. It's hard not to. Yeah. And we talked about him at length on the Tuesday pod, Mike. It was really hard to get, whether it's Tannehill or not, to your point. And you're right about, you know, the run pass option, read option type stuff that could create, you know, even bigger lanes. We'll have to see, you know, I'd like to see Malik Willis keep it on some of those, you know, run pass options or read options, because I think if that legitimate threat is there early, I think that's going to create even bigger lanes for Derek Henry as the first, second,

third, fourth quarter transpire. But let me ask you,ik Willis. Is he, I mean, there's, there's obviously cheap quarterbacks to take. I think Gardner Minshew was an obvious one at 4,800. Would you even consider pivoting to a Malik Willis in this case with this type of total? I assume the answer is no, but I feel like I have to ask. Yeah, it's going to be a no for me. Um, there's just other better situations. Um, you know, one of them will be in the next game that we'll talk about. I just think it's a better situation. So Willis, yes, he could get there throwing touchdowns. Yes, he could bust one long.

Yes, he could run one in. I'd rather just isolate Derrick Henry and move on here, though. Okay, sounds good. That next game is the New York Giants plus 3.5 at the Vikings. It's a 48-point total. This game is going to be really interesting for a lot of people in terms of wanting to play this game. And there's obvious reasons. We've talked about it all season, the dome environments. Whether it's good weather around the league or not, the dome environments are always better for scoring. And we have a situation here where we have a 48 point total, which is reflective of the good and optimal conditions. But we also have so many other games. I mean, the majority of games that people generally just don't want to touch because there's high wind or there's extremely cold temperatures, particularly when you factor in the windchill, there's potential precipitation, which includes snow. This is a game that is perfectly curated in a dome, New York Giants,

plus three and a half at the Vikings, 48 point total. I think this is a game where you could go on each side. And it seems to me, Mike, based on what you just said about maybe some low-cost quarterbacks in better situations than, let's say, Malik Willis, for example. Is Daniel Jones that guy that you're referring to? And how do you like playing this game? Yeah, I love this game. It's hard not to especially this week you mentioned the dome we talk about it all the time it's even more important in this

particular week it's also a spot where the teams want to keep winning uh and there's records being chased on the minnesota side with justin jefferson uh but the giants they want to keep winning in this spot um it's a good spot for him so yes yes, Daniel Jones is one of those players here. Look, the range of outcomes here are incredibly wide. We've seen single-digit games in the win over Washington, nine fantasy points. We've seen games of 30-plus fantasy points from him this year. I think we get somewhere, obviously, in the middle between those. But I think he's got 30-point upside here.

We know the upside that he has rushing. I think he's still going to have 40 yards rushing in this game, potentially a rushing touchdown here, but should have all the opportunity because his own defense is going to get lit up in the passing game here. They're going to give up yards. They're going to give up points. We're almost guaranteed a trailing game script here for the Giants. Yeah, he's 5,600, So yes, I do like Daniel Jones.

So my question for the Daniel Jones roster construction is, I think you can justify playing him naked. I actually think you can justify playing him with Saquon Barkley because there are games where Saquon gets targets, not Eckler type targets, but targets nonetheless. And then of course, Darius Slayton at 5,200, a guy that's going to be running the deep patterns against the Minnesota Vikings defense that can get exposed particularly deep. And then of course, Darius Slayton at 5,200, a guy that's going to be running the deep patterns against the Minnesota Vikings defense that can get exposed particularly deep. But then you got Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins, 4,100, 3,900, Richie being the lower end of that at 3,900, Daniel Bellinger at 3,300. Who would you pair with Daniel Jones or do you double stack it? And because of the value that you're creating, who do you bring back? Is it just one player or do you just get super aggressive in this game?

And you think of maybe Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson or KJ Osborne and Justin Jefferson, something like that. Yeah, it'll be very aggressive in this game. Richie James will have a ton of Richie James here. I think we see close to 10 targets for him in this particular game. Again, the pace of play, it's not going to necessarily be like the game against Washington. There's going to be more snaps offensively for them in this spot. I think they're going to be obviously trailing at times as well. So I like both of them, all three of them,

really, uh, James first, then Hodgins, then Bellinger, but I'm going to have all of them. Uh, Saquon Barkley would be my fourth running back. Um, probably only playing four running backs total this week across my five lineups. So Barkley will be in the player pool. Dalvin Cook is number three. Love Dalvin Cook this week. Love Justin Jefferson on the other side. Love Kirk Cousins on the other side. This game is going to, it's classic stance. We know a lot of people are going to play it. I'm still going to take a pretty overweight stance on it personally and be more than the field here. Yeah, I love it. And I'll just spoiler alert here, and I'm not going to give out the play, but I'll be on the, if you, by the way, if you couldn't

tell, I'm not, I'm in a new environment right now. I'm, I'm in DC, so I'm not in my regular quarters, but I still will be on this show. I'll be on the early edge later tonight at seven 30, talking about Thursday night football, which by the way, we had a question from Juan Crispin. This is time-sensitive. Lawrence or Minshew in fantasy? It's going to be Minshew for me. Mike, I assume you agree that Minshew's probably going to have the better game than Trevor in tough conditions at the New York Jets tonight.

Yeah, Minshew by a pretty considerable margin, actually, for me. I totally agree. I totally agree, Mike. And just to finish my thought, what I was getting at was tomorrow I'll be on the prop show, and I'm pretty sure one of my props getting at was tomorrow I'll be on the prop show. And I'm pretty sure one of my props, I usually give out four props on the prop show. And then I come Sunday on the final bets show on the early edge with the fifth prop. Prop stars and Dave Richard are on that show as well. Of course, Jonathan Coachman hosts it. One of my props will

pertain to Dalvin Cook. So please tune in tomorrow at four o'clock to hear all of the props from everybody, including me, of course. Dalvin Cook should be featured in that one. And I do want to highlight there was somebody who just made a really nice comment here. Everybody, if you're in here, some new people in here, Gardner for God, Joey Cascio, Tony Alanis, Anthony James. Hit the Like button if you haven't already. Go ahead and retweet this if you're on Twitter. Whatever you want to do to promote the show or review it, that's great. But it was Joey Cascio.

I hope I'm pronouncing that right. Rare occurrence I can watch live. Happy holidays. And thanks, Sia and Mike, for your work. Appreciate that. Appreciate the acknowledgement. You never need to thank us. We're happy to be here.

Our thank you from you is you actually being in here. And I'm not just saying something cliche. It's legitimately true. Really, really appreciate everybody being in here. The only thing I want to share on the Dalvin Cook side, because I do like him, Mike, the Giants, if I didn't already say this, they're allowing over 5.3 yards per carry. And a lot of contact, a lot of contact. I should say this, they're not getting contact early. So I think we have a situation where if Dalvin Cook finds a running lane, it can be go time for him.

So it wouldn't shock me at all if he has a house call in this game. Vikings better against the run of the pass, but I do think Saquon can get loose in this one. I think the volume is going to be there for Saquon. So, yeah, there's a lot of pieces in this game. Of those two running backs, Mike, I agree. It's Dalvin Cook for me. It's not Saquon Barkley if I had to rate them. Anybody else in this game of those two running backs, Mike, I agree. It's Dalvin cook for me. It's not, it's not Saquon Barkley. If I had to rate them, uh, anybody else in this game,

you didn't mention Darius Slayton when you were going over all the giants, is he in your player pool? Uh, he's not currently, but I don't have an issue playing him. Uh, it's mostly a price point play, uh, up to 5,200. I'd much rather speculate on 3,942 or whatever they are. Um, it's, you know, paying a,000 more for Slayton, who I don't anticipate to really have a huge edge in terms of volume. I think the savings are needed based off of my lineup core. So that's why Slayton did not make my player pool. Yeah, that totally makes sense.

And it's Hodgins that's 4,100. And Richie James, the guy you like the most, is actually the least expensive guy at 3,900. The next game, so we like a lot of guys in this game, this Vikings game. But this next game, I don't think anybody's going to like a lot of guys. There's one guy I have my eye on, though. So it's the Saints plus 2.5 at the Browns. It's a 32.5 point total.

This total has been flirting between 31 and 32.5. Wins are expected to be very high in this one, Mike, which you probably already know it's going to be brutally cold. This is going to be one of the colder games on the slate. The only guy that I'd even consider, and he was sort of tagged with a foot injury earlier in the week,

but I think he's practicing in full at this point. It's Nick Chubb. I think with Nick Chubb, it's one of those situations where people want to avoid the cold weather games. And if Nick Chubb's going to be super depressed value, excuse me, super depressed ownership, I'd at least consider playing Nick Chubb, it's one of those situations where people want to avoid the cold weather games. And if Nick Chubb is going to be super depressed value, excuse me, super depressed ownership, I'd at least consider playing Nick Chubb in that case. And maybe, Mike, you can kind of pull up initial projections on Nick Chubb.

But he's the only guy I'd consider outside of the Cleveland defense, which is 3,800. So that's a little too expensive. But I think the Saints defense on the other side, particularly if you're not playing Nick Chubb, is a decent defense at 2,800. There's other defenses I like, mind you, in that 2,800-ish range. Anything from this game for you, though? I'll mention Chubb just because you did. The ownership, I'm talking 2% to 3% owned.

I don't think anyone's playing him. I think everybody's going to play at least two running backs we're going to talk about today. We've already talked about one being Derrick Henry. Yeah, I can't get anywhere in this game other than defenses. The only place that I would like to in the old days when we had Taysom Hill as a tight end, that would be my favorite play of the week. I think it's going to be a massive Taysom Hill game. If you want to speculate in a huge, you know, you play 150 lineups,

things like that. I don't hate playing Taysom Hill once, uh, in that particular spot, he's 4,800, the same price as Minshew. Um, a scenario where Taysom Hill has 70 rushing yards and two touchdowns is not unreasonable at all. Uh, in this particular game, I expect it to be a Taysom Hill game personally. Um, having said that though, I, though, he's quarterback, and I'm not going to play him as my quarterback in my five lineups. So I can't really get there, but it unfortunately really impacts the value of everyone else in the game.

So it's by far one of the worst weather games of the week. It's a situation I'm going to be avoiding outside of the defenses. Yeah, and again, when it comes to Chubb, listen, it's not, it's not a super quality play for me, but I am going to play some Nick Chubb. And it goes back to the Henry conversation, Mike, when you were talking about, you know, what do these teams have to play for granted Houston's been playing really well the last couple of weeks, at least, you know, offensively,

they've really kind of turned up, turned it up a notch a little bit, but, and I'm certain I didn't coin this term. I'm certain this has been coined by like 100 other people that think they were the first at it. But it's business decision December. I've been saying that for the last few weeks. Again, I don't think I own that one. If I do, that's great. But I'm sure a thousand people have said that before I have. And I think when it comes to the brutal conditions, listen, if Nick Chubb gets 16 carries, there's going to be some of those where he gets to the second level and those linebackers and defensive backs

in that chill are just not going to want to make that business decision the wrong way. And I can see a situation where this 32.5 point total that half of it gets gobbled up by Nick Chubb

in these particular conditions. I 100% agree, which reminds me of something I want to talk about, about defense and special teams this week. Look, all the defenses in the cold brother games are going to grab additional ownership. That's fine.

But keep in mind that you remove some of the best part of the special teams when you're playing in the cold sloppy game, right? We're talking, you, you, everyone looks at a defense and wants to play them here because, oh, this game's super low scoring, right? They're going to run the ball a ton. The clock's moving. They're probably going to punt a lot. That's great, right? However, how do you score points as a defense? Turning the ball over with interceptions typically, and sacking the quarterback. The sack is the most underrated thing in DFS scoring here in terms of defenses. If they're not throwing the football as much, you eliminate the opportunity for turnovers and sacks pretty significantly.

Not to mention you're adding additional ownership to them. So be careful when you're just jamming in the automatic game with 30 points in the total, not always the best move in a week like this. Yeah, that's incredible advice. Excellent advice. And speaking of games that, and maybe you could give me some insight here. This next game is pretty troubling conditions as well. And it's got some, you know, high flyers with Justin Fields and Josh Allen among others, of course, it's the bills minus eight at the bears. It's only a 39 and a half point total. That's certainly reflective of the weather. I, you know, I, I don't really let, let me ask you this, Mike, do you, do you have a lean on the weather and is the weather getting

you away from the players in this game? Uh, I mean, it's cold. It's not, you know, it's not the worst situation, but it's not the best 20 miles an hour on the wind. Um, 12, 15 degrees, you know, wind chills are going to, it's going to be cold, right? It's not the worst of the situations. It's got two teams that are mostly, I can't say used to these conditions cause it's hard to get used to this level, but they are teams that play in sloppy conditions outdoors very frequently. I'm not as worried about it in this particular spot. The issue for me is you've got typed on a run down here,

cook or Singletary, who knows, right at this point. And then Josh Allen himself, he has the ability to run on the other side. Justin Fields has the ability to run. There's just, it's really hard to get to anyone in this game. The only one, like, again, it's a 150 max only play. Like I'm not doing it in five lineups, but I love stuff on digs. If you can play

150 lineups, this is the week digs is going to be 2% owned or less. He's $8,500. It's so much easier to get a ton of other players in your lineup but with 20 mile an hour wins if they're not able to run the ball as well with the box stacked josh allen is very comfortable throwing eight yard passes all day long to step on digs if he has to right um so i on a site like draft kings where it's full ppr yes he's expensive not unreasonable to think that digs can still manage eight catches, maybe only 50 yards, but score two touchdowns in this game. I, you know, again, you can't do it in five lineups or you shouldn't do it in five lineups. If you're someone who's max entering or playing a ton, I think it's a pretty good week to

attack them. Yeah, no, I, I, I agree. What about the idea of just playing Josh Allen naked? Because he, again, and this kind of goes back to the cook and singletary thing a little bit, you know, where's the rushing equity going to come from in a game like this? Does it, does Josh Allen kind of morph into the Jalen Hurts role a little bit? And again, Josh Allen has been Jalen Hurts with the rushing, but he hasn't really been Jalen Hurts with the rushing this year. I wonder, is this a game where we see a little bit more of that from him? I think it is.

I think they also want to be extremely careful not to get him hurt at this point in this particular game as well. So, yeah, I mean, I do think that it's not going to matter. Josh Allen's going to do what he wants to a lot of the time, especially if you're giving him plays that are truly read plays where he has that decision. He's going to do whatever he wants to do at that point. I personally think he runs a lot, but I think that we see a relatively conservative game plan from them in general

if and when they are ahead and leading. It's truly get in, get out with a win. You've seen it reflected in the point spread here. This thing's down to eight. Early in the week, it was nine, nine and a half, probably out with a win. You've seen it reflected in the point spread here. This thing's down to eight. Early in the week, it was nine, nine and a half. Probably should be 10 plus. Yeah, I think it's, well, let's win this game. Let's stay healthy and get the heck out of there.

Yeah, when it comes to Cook and Singletary too, my lean, and I haven't really been on James Cook all year from a DFS standpoint. There were weeks where people were really hot on him and it was reflective of the week before. They're like,, I guess, you know, he's, he's kind of been handed the keys and that, you know, you gotta be careful on those one week sample size. And I'll say last week, Singletary out snapped cook pretty significantly. And he certainly out touched him 16 to seven when you combine the rushing and, and the, and the actual complete receptions from

each running back. But I do think this game could be a pop game. And again, I'm kind of going on feel here. I'm not going on last week and the week before, because if anything, Singletary would be the guy if you just examine the last couple of weeks. But I think this is a good spot to maybe speculate on James Cook at 500 less than David Singletary at 4,900. And it's not because, Mike,

it's not because I think he's going to out-touch Singletary. And he might, by the way, but I doubt it. But I think even if he can get close to like a 40-60 split in this type of game environment, we know James Cook is way more likely to break one, whether it's the passing game or the running game, than Devin Singletary. So, you know, there's a lot of value on this slate, and we'll get to all of it. But I do think Cook might be a sneaky play. Is it the kind of guy that, you know, if you're doing five lineups, he might sneak into one or two of them? Not for me, but I play

incredibly aggressively when I play. Um, so like I I've got four line or four running backs total, uh, the top two running backs that I have, I'm going to have them in a hundred percent of lineups, no matter what. Uh, and I'll tell you, it's, it's going to be Derek Kennedy, Christian McCaffrey. They'll be in everyups, no matter what. And I'll tell you, it's going to be Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. They'll be in every lineup, no matter what. Wow, that's interesting. It certainly doesn't because that's going off the top of my head here, 8,800 and 8,600. And it's funny because we had a lot of questions on Tuesday about Christian McCaffrey, about Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry was kind of the easy one to answer.

Christian McCaffrey was the one that I considered, and I'm not looking at ownership right this second. We'll get to Christian McCaffrey, but I had kind of considered him more of a pivot off of Derek Henry at lower ownership. And I don't know if that's actually going to be the case. I certainly think it should given the matchups, but is that the case? Is he coming in at like half or less the ownership as Derek Henry? Unfortunately, no. He's coming in with more. Interesting. Yeah, they're going to top two own players on the slate. I'm playing them.

Like I said, I'm going over, over, over, over on a few of those spots this week. All right. And so everybody pay attention because Mike has already told you, we're about to get to a big-time game in the Seahawks and the Chiefs, but Mike already told you some of the value plays he likes. So, I mean, I think you can kind of piece together, you know, some of what Mike is going to have in one of his, or maybe almost all of his five lineups. So make sure you're listening closely here. With that said, we do want to move to the Seahawks plus nine and a half at the Chiefs,

49 and a half point total. But before we go to that game, which is going to be exciting on a lot of different levels, DFS included, we are going to hear a message from our partners. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations,

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Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. And we are back. My name is Sian Ajad. This is the Game by Game preview. We are going to go through every single game of Saturday. We're going to touch a little bit on the Sunday three-game slate. We're going to give out our top three, or I should say Mike's top three at each position, our cheat sheets. If you're new in the chat, and then there's a lot of you that are new here, Roy steer Steyer, maybe, uh, Iraq Lee. I'm not going to try to pronounce the last name. Cause I probably screwed up the first name, Dave Camden Williams. Uh, man, there's a lot of Derek. I see you, uh, everybody go ahead and smash that. Oh, there you go. Uh, Rod, a pop. I believe that's

how you pronounce it. Smash that like button that Rade is suggesting you do. Let's get on with it. And we appreciate all of you being in here, by the way. Seahawks plus 9.5 at the Chiefs, 49.5. Now, one thing I was concerned about on the front end of this week, what, Mike, was the weather. For all games, obviously. But this game was kind of included in that.

And one sort of cheat code I was trying – I'm not trying to be super – this isn't like a super novel concept, but one cheat code for me, when I'm looking at the weather is also to look at the totals. Obviously if the Seahawks chiefs total had crashed from 49 or 49 and a half to 45 and a half or something, we would clearly have a problem with the weather. If anything, this total has gone up from Tuesday. I believe it was 49 or 48 and a half, and now it's 49 and a half. So to me, in this game, which has a lot of dynamic players and basically no secondaries, and what I mean by that is the Seahawks can't cover anybody and the Chiefs can't cover anybody,

it doesn't seem like weather's an issue here. What say you? Yeah, this one is fascinating. I think the weather is an issue. It doesn't seem like it's an issue because it's mild relative to everything else that's going on across. I don't love the game, honestly. It's still very, very cold. 20 degrees as a high. We're still double digit winds. We're not talking 20 mile per hour wins. It's 10 to 15 at most, but it's still very, very cold. The thing that I worry about most here is just projecting

where all the usage goes on the Kansas City side as the team gets a little more healthy here and the price points. I can't get to my homes because of the quarterback situation we have this week we have one very very obvious play in my opinion um so i can't get to my homes because i can't get to my homes like yes you can play mckinnon or pacheco mckinnon i think has been largely a product of just being in games that got overly competitive that they weren't necessarily expecting to be in. Now that some of the receiving group is back and healthy, they're playing at home where we expect them to play better. I think it's a really, really, really fragile situation. And of course, because I'm playing Derek Henry, Christian McCaffrey, and every single lineup, it's going

to be difficult for me to get to plays like that. So it sounds absolutely insane, but I have zero players in this game currently. Wow. Okay. So let me, and that makes sense, by the way, given what you've already told us in terms of how you're constructing your lineups. Let me ask you this though. Let's assume you're not doing Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey lineups. Let's assume maybe you're grabbing one of those guys and you're moving along with some

value here and there. If you were playing Mahomes, couldn't I say based on the last couple of weeks, and by the way, last week, I believe he was 36 for 41, had over 300 yards. He's averaging over 320 yards, I believe. I think that's his average passing yards on the season. He gets to face Seattle, but you're right. We've always kind of wondered outside of Kelsey, which receiver is going to get the bulk of this work. But over the last two weeks, Juju Smith-Schuster has 21 targets and he's caught 19 of them. The efficiency that is there, the targets are there. And even with guys like McCall Hardman coming back, I don't really see, and we know what MVS is at this point. We kind of know what Sky Moore is

at this point, at least in terms of how he's going to impact this particular year. It seems to me that if you did him a home stack with Juju, if you were going to stack this game, I feel like you'd be in pretty good shape and you're getting, I guess, some value out of Juju. Maybe you could stack him with Kelsey as well, or maybe go with McKinnon and hope he has another spike game. But to me, Juju seems a little bit more reliable now than maybe he did this entire season. Am I wrong about that? And once you answer that on the Seattle side, if you were to play this game, is it, is it the Marquis Goodwin value? Do you just go right to DK Metcalf and how do you feel about Gino Smith? Yeah, I can't get to Gino just because of the price point and some of the other

quarterbacks out there. I could see going up to myomes if you didn't want to play McCaffrey and Henry or only play one of the two. I could get to that. It's a fantastic matchup for Travis Kelsey. I get that. Seahawks are the worst team in the league against the tight end. The thing that I worry about is seriously just limited possessions. I think that Seattle is going to be able to move the ball against Kansas City at E-clock. They do it all the time. Kansas City we know is going to be able to move the ball eight o'clock. They do it all the time. Kansas City, we know is going to be able to move the ball on eight o'clock. They do it all the time. We see Patrick Holmes take up half a quarter very, very, very frequently, especially when they get to play at home like this. So I know that Hardman is not back. Juju is fine. Like I think that they're fine plays. I just, for whatever reason, you know you know it's i wish that the game were in

a dome and i would be way more excited about it i don't think that it's that great of a spot being that cold with some wind there it's still a very very very uncomfortable situation um yeah i'm just gonna make a hard stance personally so i i don't think they're bad plays by any means. I I've just chosen. Yeah. And before we move on from this game, is there, is there maybe a running back like, like Kenneth Walker that if you think this game plan is going, well, first of all, is a lot of ownership going to this game?

Like, are we seeing a lot? Cause there's only like three games that have high totals because I do think it's a really good contrarian play to completely fade this game. If a lot of people are going to be excited about it, but then again, you always have the problem of Patrick Mahomes and who you're going to stack him with and things of that nature. I would imagine guys like Gino Smith and DK Metcalf are getting a lot of ownership and it wouldn't shock me if Marquis Goodwin as the week goes, starts to get a lot of ownership, too. Is that actually happening? Or are people kind of thinking like you, like, I'm not so sure about this one? No, they're definitely getting ownership.

DK Metcalf is essentially drawing the same ownership as Justin Jefferson right now. Obviously, it's silly to compare those two when Justin Jefferson is $2,200 more expensive. So it makes sense. You know, Justin Jefferson at $9,300 still being a top five owned player is pretty crazy, right? DK Metcalf is the number six owned player for me currently in terms of projected ownership, not in my exposures, but I'm projecting around 20% owned. Juju Smith-Schuster about 15%. Kenneth Walker, 12 to 15%. Let's see.

Marquis Gilbert, around 10% right there with Isaiah Pacheco. So those guys are not popular, but not single digits either. DK Metcalf, definitely popular. Yeah, makes sense. Certainly makes sense. I'm going to be probably – I might end up stacking this game on the Kansas City side, just so everybody knows. And I'll probably – even when I'm not stacking this probably, I might end up stacking this game on the Kansas City side, just so everybody knows. And I'll probably, even when I'm not stacking this game with a quarterback,

I'll probably skinny stack it with maybe a value play on Marquise Goodwin and just hope he can assume that Tyler Lockett. Well, and I do, again, like I said on Tuesday, I do think Marquise Goodwin has become a better receiver. I don't think he's just a deep play threat at this point. I think if you're stacking this game, I think guys like Noah Fant are in play. But a skinny stack with somebody like Goodwin and Schuster or even Goodwin and Kelsey, I think those are in play. But to Mike's point, listen, you can go a lot of different

places. And since a lot of people are going to be living in this game, it might be a good idea to get away from it this week. I totally get it. I'm just worried that Mahomes can just kind of do whatever he wants to. And so that's kind of the worry I have. But again, there's a lot of other games that are very interesting. The next game we're going to talk about is not one of them. So we're going to be really quick about it. It's the Bengals minus three at the Patriots. It's a 41.5 point total.

Not much to say about this game, Mike. I'm not really interested much on the Cincinnati side for once. I don't think the Patriots defense is necessarily super formidable, not the defense we thought they were maybe a month ago. But I think just with weather and the Patriots playing at home, I'm not really interested in paying $8,300 for Jamar Chase or even $7K for Tee Higgins. I think it's a pretty decent contrarian play if the weather cooperates a little bit to stack burrow but i'm not on anybody in this game including the running backs how about you yeah i'm off for this one for now um i will

say the only one that caught a little bit of attention was t higgins only because i'm projecting him two percent owned um at 7k two percent owned very reasonable for him to have enough garbage time to get there i say garbage time because I'm not sure they're winning this game. Honestly, it sounds a lot like crazy. They should not have won against Tampa Bay last week. They locked into four turnovers and nine plays. The bucks somehow turned the ball over literally four turnovers in nine

plays. Not sure how it happened. All that's setting them up. I mean, they were literally dropped snaps, right? They weren't like, yeah, it's absolutely incredible.

They were in trouble in that game down 17-0. They were gifted points. Now this is a much tougher place to go play. It's going to be cold, not anywhere near like the other games. But the pass rush from the pass is legit. That's the only thing that they've got going that's actually legit. Yeah, I think it could be a little bit of a letdown spot for Cincy. you know if you want to play t higgins go for it but i'm out on this game yeah speaking of tom brady by the way he's on that three game slate that we're going to touch on at

the very end of the show and he gets arizona this could be another tom brady week uh so stay tuned for that i can't wait to hear your thoughts, Mike, on that. And I saw a comment here, Steven Bowman, first time, long time, he says, well, welcome buddy. Really appreciate it. Okay. So let's move on another game. We'll get to a couple. There's certainly another huge game we're about to get to, but let's just touch on lions Panthers real quick because it's, it's on the, it's on the slate, right? So Lions minus three at the Panthers. It's a 44-point total, 43.5 in some places. I'm not really interested in much here. I'm not paying 7,800 for a Monros St. Brown,

particularly on the road against a Carolina defense that isn't terrible. The Carolina side, I mean, if you want to play DJ Moore or Terrence Marshall or Shai Smith, feel free. I'm definitely not going to do that. And the problem is I don't know who to play at the running back position because Foreman has sort of taken a backseat. Chuba Hubbard has certainly gotten some work. So I think you could consider Chuba Hubbard.

But Detroit run defense has been playing a little bit better over the last month. And then Raheem Blackshear gets some snaps as well. So, you know, the wide receiver core for Detroit, it's so diversified beyond Amon Ross St. Brown that I don't want to pick and choose between DJ Shark and Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams or tight end Brock Wright or even Kalief Raymond, who's been getting some looks.

I'm just off this game, Mike. Anybody you like? Honestly, no. So far, you know, we'll get to it on the cheat sheet, but yeah, no, I'm not playing this game. Love it. Okay, so let's move on because we don't want to waste anybody's time.

Good news for me playing against Burrow in season long, says Rod A. Okay. Well, hopefully, hopefully our analysis is right on that. Hopefully that is good news for you. Thanks for, thanks for watching. Thanks for commenting. Atlanta at the Baltimore Ravens, the Falcons showcasing their rookie Desmond Ritter. They're plus seven and a half at the Ravens, 37 and a half point total.

I'll just note that the Ravens' defense is 3,200. It's a pretty good defense. And to the extent they're not a good defense, I don't know that Desmond Ritter is going to be able to expose that back end. So, by the way, in case you didn't know, Ritter was 13 for 26 last week for 97 total passing yards, 38 rushing yards. Before you laugh and point and make fun of him, that's basically Mariota's stat line too.

So it's just kind of one of those things don't forget he doesn't have kyle pitts yes drake london probably got a pretty good target share last week but they just don't pass it a ton the one guy i like here mike and then i'll kick it to you jk dobbins i mean the last two games he hasn't gotten a ton of work i mean you're talking about like 13, 14 carries a game, but he's had 28 rush attempts over the last two weeks for a grand total of 245 rushing yards. His efficiency is completely off the charts, averaging eight to nine yards per carry over the last two weeks. And I don't really see how that efficiency goes down much. Of course, it'll go down a little bit because that's insane, but against the Falcons, I mean, is J.K. Dobbins fully in play here

or is this a move on spot for you? He's definitely in play. He's in my player pool at this point. I like him. I would pair him with the defense if you're going to play him. Just stack it up. Ravens defense and J.K. Dobbins. I think it's a great play.

I'm mostly electing to play him in the player prop market. I like his rushing total. I like his longest rush as well. That's really where the bulk of his value has come is through having one to two really long rushes in the game. I think we see that again from him. So, yeah, that's how I'm going to handle it, but not playing anybody on the Falcon side. Yeah. And that's if I'm playing anybody, it's J.K.

Dobbins. It's the Ravens defense. And that's a wrap. So let's go to the commanders, the commanders plus seven. I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't mention Drake London though. If for some reason you love, love Dobbins, Drake London has seen a ton of targets the last two weeks, 23 targets the last two weeks, which is a lot considering he didn't really have that many in the last six weeks combined. Um, just worth pointing out. He, I don't think he's going to play him still, uh, hard to argue with the target volume. I mean, he still had 11 targets in Ritter's debut, 70 yards, obviously didn't score a touchdown, but yeah, 11 targets from the rookie

playing with the rookie again. You gotta, you gotta acknowledge it, I think. No, I think you're right. And maybe I did a disservice to Drake London when I was rattling off, you know, the Desmond Ritter. Cause now that I mentioned it, like 26 pass attempts, isn't bad. It's just the 97 yards. That's really catching my eye. Like I, I wonder what the ceiling is for Drake London. But then again, he has only 70 of his 97 yards. Yeah, yeah. So that's so interesting, right? He literally looks like, yeah, that's crazy.

Seven, 70% of the yards in passing went to Drake London. So, you know, I think that's another game to maybe monitor the weather. If the wind is down, I do like that skinny stack. Drake London and J.K. Dobbins. Again, Drake London at 4,800. I think that's why he enters the conversation. Mike, if he's 5,800 or 5,600, it's kind of like, okay, no thank you, obviously, right? Yep.

All right, so let's move on to the Commanders plus seven at the 49ers, 38.5 point total. Man, tough spot for Washington. I mean, just they kind of got the game sort of taken away from them a little bit. Not that they necessarily would have won the game, but so they're kind of down on their luck. They lost to the Giants, and then they get to fly to San Francisco and play the best defense in the league. And I don't see how they come out on top in this one. I'm not sure I see how they cover in this one, but it's CMC all day here. And I think we saw last week with the 49ers,

they're just going to run CMC between the tackles on the outside. They're going to pass to him a little bit, even though his, his passing production kind of went down after the first quarter last week. I understand the CMC play. I actually don't understand how it's that well-owned. In other words, I really thought he'd be somewhat of a pivot off of Derek Henry because of his price and because we still see Washington as a somewhat formidable defense, particularly against the run. But again, we know CMC gets the volume kind of regardless here. So is it CMC and move on for you or their players maybe on the commander side that you like? I mean, I'll note that Jahan Dotson, I believe he was 3,900. I don't know that I'm personally willing

to go there, but I think it's decent,900. I don't know that I'm personally willing to go there, but I think it's decent speculative value. I'm not playing Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson in this particular game. Nobody I really like here other than CMC. Yeah, it's CMC or Buss for me here. Look, I think he's going to have a ton of work in this game. Double-digit targets, I think, for sure,

especially the way Washington's going to be able to get after them with Chase Young out there. I think it's a great spot for them. I think we also have to mention the Chris Caffrey Pro Bowl snub just a little bit. The fans voted him in. The people who didn't were the coaches and players. Wow.

That does not sit well with a player like that. Yeah, I think that there's only so much you can do, but the one position that you can do something about it when you're a running back touching or any player, but when you're someone like this who's going to touch the ball legitimately 30 times in this game, you can play a little harder at certain times, right? I think it's an absolutely smash spot for Christian McCaffrey.

I think he's going to get all the usage. I think his teammates that he plays with individually are going to want to get him in the end zone if they have opportunities as well. I just think it's a great spot for him. And yes, he's expensive. It's doable this week. It's give the ball to Christian McCaffrey

and let him go win football games for you. Yeah, it's interesting, too, because Kyle Shanahan is the type of coach that will listen to that stuff and will kind of honor any any implicit request to maybe get a little bit more work or a little bit more goal line work because of the snub. He's just that type of personality. And that's that's not me, like criticizing Kyle Shanahan at all. For the record, I've talked on the early edge a couple of weeks ago about how I thought he's the best coach in the league. I've always thought that I've thought that for, for many years, really, since he was in Atlanta. So even though he was an OC there, but the point is, I think you're right about that. I think I'll be a little underweight, certainly relative to you,

I'll be underway, but I think relative to the field, I'll be a little underweight on Christian McCaffrey. I'll probably go to other places, other kind of speculative, not speculative, but other running backs that are kind of in the 7K, maybe 6K, 5K range. But I absolutely understand the Christian McCaffrey play. No problem there. And I think we're willing to kind of move on from this game, right? It's Christian McCaffrey and then go, right? Yeah, I can't get to anything else.

Okay, so let's get to the game that a lot of people are going to be talking about for a lot of different reasons. This is actually the last game of the 10 game slate. Again, we're going to do the top three at each position. By the way, I don't know if we're at 100 likes, but we usually get to 100 likes and then we share Mike's top three at each position. Try to get that. I mean, spoiler alert, we're going to give it to you anyway. But if you haven't already hit the like button, there's a lot of new new people in here. I see you, Jeff and OS.

Great Goose Hayes. I see you in here, Garrett. Appreciate you, Faustino, being in here. Please hit the like button. Once we're done with this, we're going to do the cheat sheet, our top three, but then we're also going to touch on the Sunday slate. So stay tuned for that. But this Philly-Dallas game is so interesting. Eagles plus four and a half at the Cowboys. This total has been kind of teetering around 46, 47, 47 and a half. Right now, I believe it's at 46. We know there's no Jalen Hurts at this point. It's going to be the Gardner Minshew show. He's 4,800. Certainly screams value to me, Mike. I think he screams value to a lot of people. I wonder if he screams value to you. What my question for you is, okay, first of all, do you like Gardner Minshew? The second question is, well, how do you like to play Gardner Minshew? Is it with

A.J. Brown? Is it with Dallas? You mentioned Chase Young coming back for Washington. Great news for them. Dallas Goddard coming back for the Philadelphia Eagles. Clearly great news for them. Probably a nice little safety blanket for Gardner Minshew. With that said, I kind of like the AJ Brown stack. I think maybe Devante Smith is in play, but it's probably between the two receivers. It's AJ Brown for me. It's the other side that I'm really curious about. I like CD lamb in this game. Not so much Gallup. Uh, Noah Brown, I think is an interesting speculative play. I think it could be a Pollard pop game through the pass and through the, through the running. So for me, it's Minshew it's AJ Brown, maybe Goddard and it's CD lamb on the other side and maybe Pollard. How do you play this game?

Yeah, it's a lot of Gardner Minshew. Probably going to have Minshew in four out of five lineups. I love him in this spot. He's simply too cheap. Best spot he's ever had in his entire career. Playing in a dome, a lot easier to have timing with receivers when there are moments. Love this spot for him. So I like pairing him with AJ Brown. I'm going to pair him with Dallas Goddard a little bit. It is Goddard's return. It is highly speculative. Dallas, on paper, rates well against tight ends.

I'm not sure it's true. You look at Dallas's schedule, they don't play a ton of great tight ends to begin with. And they gave up a ton to Evan Ingram last week as a tight end. I like the spot for Goddard, though. I think he can come in here and be relevant. When you have a quarterback like this, you know, making this start, you're going to look for some of these shorter throws

over the middle of the field. That's where I expect Goddard to be relevant. So I like him a ton. You could still play Devontae Smith. I obviously love A.J. Brown. As far as the other side, the one play that I will make in a tournament, I like CeeDee Lamb as well. I think CeeDee Lamb is like maybe the best pivot on the

slate. Jefferson, someone that could theoretically give you the same upside with reduced ownership and reduced costs. So I do like that, but I actually like Zeke as crazy as that sounds. I like Zeke Elliott. And I want you to look at Zeke's box. It's just absolutely crazy. And it's probably infuriating if you like someone like Tony Pollard, right? Look at this box score. One,

two, three, four, five, six, seven games in a row with at least 15 draft Kings points. He's touching the ball 15 to 18 times every single game in the run game. He's getting multiple targets in the passing game. He scored at least one touchdown in every

single one of those games, two of them with two games, two games or two touchdowns. He gets carries because Jerry Jones loves the guy and it's a mandate. The guy is going to touch the football, right? It's so true, by the way. That's like an actual thing. That's not you just being cute with your language. That is a thing, and it's very clear. It is a very real thing. Look, he's a middling price point. No one's going to want to play him.

We're all focused on the other side. You typically aren't using that kind of a play as a bring back. You're looking to find pass catchers as a bring back. If Minshew struggles at all in this game, we might see a turnover. We might see a short field. When they have short fields, Zeke gets the ball. Coming off of turnovers, Zeke gets the football. Yeah, I don't think anyone's going to play him, so I don't mind playing Zeke Elliott here in this spot. Yeah, I think my pushback on Zeke Elliott,

and I agree with you in terms of the box scores, I wonder, I don't think it's going to go dry to your point, but I do think with Dallas getting Jordan Davis back a few weeks ago, the stuff that Zeke does well, like just between the tackles, I don't think it's going to be there as much as it maybe it has been over the last few weeks. And I do think just from a game planning standpoint, you're going to see maybe a little bit more design for Tony Pollard, maybe to help Dak get going too in the passing game, because he's been kind of up and down in the passing game, as we've seen for three weeks in a row now from an efficiency standpoint.

So I can see a situation where you get some Pollard on the edge, whether it's through the passing game or the rushing game, and you finally have that, I say finally, like first time in maybe four weeks or so, where you get that spike game from Tony Pollard. It is speculative considering that these two, what I'm saying is Zeke and Tony Pollard, they legit split snaps. They split everything. It's just one of those things. So if you're looking for a Pollard spike, you have to understand that you're probably at best getting 55% of the touches of the snaps relative to Ezekiel Elliott. But I do like CeeDee Lamb, and there's a guy in the chat named Dave. Dave, hopefully you've already hit the like button. We're almost at 100, and we have like way over twice as many watching. We're like 200 people watching.

We only got 90 likes. Let's get to 100 real quick. We're about to do Mike's top three, but you have a really astute comment here, Dave, and it's the boys are vulnerable to – oh, well, you say the boys, but I want to say the Eagles are actually vulnerable to wide receivers, slot wide receivers as well. And CeeDee Lamb, for those of you that don't know, he kind of moves around the formation quite a bit. He's a boundary receiver, but he also plays in the slot about half the time.

Same could be said for Noah Brown, not so much Michael Gallup, which is why if I'm going to speculate on a low end Cowboys receiver, which I'm not 100% sure I'm going to do, it's probably going to be Noah Brown who got a lot of work last week, and it's going to be CeeDee Lamb for sure. So I like that call, CeeDee Lamb, kind of an adjustment off of Justin Jefferson in terms of a discount from an ownership and price standpoint. So I do like CeeDee Lamb. Anybody else from this game that you like? I mean, we kind of talked about everybody, but is there anybody else in play here? We didn't mention Devontae Smith. He's not on my radar this particular game. And let me ask you this. You're playing a lot of Minshew. Are any of those lineups Minshew naked? Yes, definitely. Definitely, definitely, definitely. I think it's difficult to

really go pinpoint exactly where he's going to go and have the most comfort in chemistry. Like, it's very possible that it's A.J. Brown. It's a great weapon to try and throw to, right? Very possible it's Dallas Goddard. It's very possible it's Devontae Smith. It's also possible that it's Quez Watkins in the slot. Dallas is susceptible to slot receivers. Quez Watkins is playing there. Not sure about Pascal if he's going to be available or not, but guys like Quez Watkins and Pascal might have a little more chemistry with Gardner Minshew as they spent time as number three and four receivers. Those guys typically work a little bit more with some of the backup quarterbacks. So always something to monitor, but at the price point at 4,800, while we typically like a stack and it's one of the best game environments on the slate, I don't think a stack is required

with Gardner Minshew at that price point. Okay. Absolutely love it. And I totally, I 100% agree. And I'll certainly have some lineups with Gardner Minshew as well. And obviously, oh, go ahead, Mike. I was just saying, and what I mean by that is not a, like a direct handcuff, right? So like, say you don't quite have the money for AJ Brown or you don't love it, but we love CD lamb. There's nothing wrong with pairing Gardner Minshew and CD lamb instead of Gardner Minshew and AJ Brown, in my opinion. Absolutely. Totally. 100% agree. Uh, Mike, we're at a hundred likes, you know, you know what that means, right? Let's go. Let's go. So let's do it. We're going to do Mike's top that by the way,

that's the 10 game slate. So pretty good timing on the likes, but we're going to do Mike's top three at each position. We're going to race through my cheat sheet, Mike's cheat sheet. And then we'll just talk a few minutes before we get out of here, uh, regarding the Sunday slate and maybe how Mike thinks showdown is going to go. So we've got a lot to do in about, I don't know, 10, 12 minutes. Mike, give me your top three at each position, starting at the quarterback. Gardner Minshew, number one, uh, by a considerable margin, he's simply too cheap. No quarterback that's starting in this offense should be $4,800, period. Daniel Jones, number two, love the rushing upside. Love what I predict to be a guaranteed negative game script

in terms of like a trailing game script. They're going to be playing up. He also has massive upside rushing the football with his legs, even more so in that garbage time. Kirk Cousins is number three for me. I expect this game to be an absolute shootout. I don't think the Giants can stop them. They're chasing records with Justin Jefferson.

Justin Jefferson does a lot of things to bail out Kirk Cousins week after week. He's going to do it again here in this particular spot. Running backs, Derrick Henry, number one. Number two, Christian McCaffrey. Number three, Dalvin cook. Love that Minnesota game. If you haven't figured that out yet, love, love, love that game. I'm going to have that thing stacked up like crazy wide receiver, Justin Jefferson, Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, all in the same game. Love that game playing the giants wide receivers. Richie, I think, is going to have 10 targets in this game. I think he's going to get peppered with targets in this trailing game script.

I think the Vikings are going to give up enough and let them back into this football game. Love, love, love that spot. Tight end. Dallas Goddard is number one for me. I'm really speculative here in this spot. However, I do like it. I don't think a lot of people are going to play him. Single digit ownership for sure. $4,500. I think Minshew's going to target the tight end here. I think it's someone that he trusts. Number two, TJ Hawkinson.

Number three, Daniel Bellinger. Bellinger's dropped several passes. However, I think he's got a great opportunity here against Minnesota. I'm looking to stack up Daniel Jones pass catchers as much as I possibly can. And Mike, I hate to put you on the spot here, but I actually forgot to include the defenses when I broke this down for you. Do you have a top three defenses or maybe even just a top defense that you know you're going to be playing a decent amount of? Right now, the top three, we've got Saints, Bears, and Texans. Okay. And I'll just throw in, and I like the Saints quite a bit. The Texans, not like, so for me, I'm going to be playing a, what's that?

I said, yeah, the Texans are against Henry. And then right up, right below them are the Ravens. I was going to say, for me, if I just gave a top two out on defense, it would be the Saints and the Ravens, with Ravens probably occupying the number one spot. Mark, thank you for reminding me about those defenses. So let's do the cheat sheets real quick. And by the way, when I mentioned that I'm going to be underweight

on Christian McCaffrey, I will be, and it's because of Dalvin Cook. So I'm going to have a lot of lineups that trot out Derek Henry and Dalvin Cook, the savings from Christian McCaffrey to Dalvin Cook. And I understand that can go badly for me, but it's a $1,600 difference. I like that game environment. I like what the giants do against running backs, which, which isn't very good. Isn't much. So it's going to be, Dalvin's going to be sort of the pivot off of Christian McCaffrey for me.

Here's my cheat sheet. It's Gardner Minshew at 4,800 to AJ Brown at 8,100. My chalk play is going to be Derek Henry. We've talked about him. We don't need to talk about him any longer. Value play is going to be Marquise Goodwin. I am going to get pieces of that game unlike might. So Marquise Goodwin kind of taking that Tyler Lockett spot at 4,300.

I do like my contrarian play is going to be Dalton Schultz. I am going to be getting a lot of pieces of this Eagles-Cowboys game. And I think Dalton Schultz is on the outside looking in, particularly because of how he performed last week. Just absolutely ice cold. He's only 4,200. I just think he's a guy that can still be the guy, regardless of the matchup, that gets six or seven catches and ends

up with 55 yards and a touchdown. I just think that's always in play for him. My fade is, and I mentioned this at the front end, is going to be Amon Ross St. Brown at 7,800. I don't think that should surprise anybody. If you want to play him, he's going to get the volume. I mean, he's going to get some short area catches. We'll see what he turns them into. But for me, he's just not going to make my player pool. Mike, your cheat sheet. Cheat sheet coming up. Look, it's boring. We have the same quarterback, Gardner Minshew.

I want to highlight how great of a value he is this week in a controlled environment. We're going Gardner Minshew to Dallas Goddard. Again, highly speculative. I think that a tight end in this particular situation is the quarterback's best friend love Dallas Goddard here 4,500 chalk play Christian McCaffrey he is going to be popular I love Derrick Henry not going to copy you on the Derrick Henry chalk play love them both I'm playing them both I think you should too value play Richie James 3,900 love this spot for him I think he's the one who gets the targets here

from Daniel Jones. I think he's also sneaky quick and has some upside in open field, uh, against a Minnesota team that really isn't all that good, uh, in those situations, contrarian play. I'm going to go Ezekiel Elliott here, six K. Uh, look, I don't think anyone's going to play him. However, I know that he has somewhere, something in his contract that says you must touch the football and it's going to continue to happen here. I think we're going to see opportunities for him. And I will say I've ragged on Zeke quite a bit throughout the season. In the last five weeks, he's got multiple games where his longest rush was over 20 yards. That's still encouraging to see. So as much as I ragged on him and as much as I love Tony Pollard, I'm going to play a little bit of Zeke this week. And then my fade, DJ Moore. I'm not planning to play him at all.

I don't love the spot at all. I think the Lions defense is improving. He's projected to be the sixth or seventh highest owned player on the entire slate. Makes sense. He's only 5,500, but I cannot get there personally. Yeah. I'll join you on that fade. So let's touch on the three game slate on Sunday. Cause we didn't really touch on it too much on Tuesday when I was doing the solo pod, by the way, for everybody, that's a new listener. I don't think I've seen Pig Boss 77 Boudreaux before in 215 Eagles. So maybe some of you are new.

We do our shows Tuesday. It's the solo pod where we recap our lineups from the last week, but we also take an early look at stacking, at pricing, at roster construction. That's Tuesday at 5 o'clock. Then the Thursday show is always me and Mike going over this game-by-game preview. So real quick, Mike, we have this Sunday slate, and there's two games that are intriguing to me. Obviously, everybody's going to want a piece of this Green Bay Miami game. I think the Miami players are really priced pretty soft from Tua to Raheem Mostert. I mean, we got to kind of monitor Jeff Wilson when we talk about Mostert, but even Jalen Waddell at 7,200, Tyreek Hill 9, know, that's obviously pretty expensive, but I think there's, I think there's value there, especially if you start your lineup with two on the other side, those guys like Christian Watson that I think people will be all over.

Maybe Romeo Dobbs at 4,800. I think Alan Lazard is on the outside looking in, which makes him intriguing to me. Aaron Jones, 6,900. I don't, you know, that that's pretty good value on this slate. I suppose the Denver Rams game, you know, I don't think people are going to want to play that game too much, and I totally get it. It's the Tampa Bay-Arizona game that really intrigues me. Maybe a pivot off of the two of stacks is that top.

And maybe some people are going to be doing this. So it's not like some major contrarian play on a three-game slate. But I think the Brady to Evans, or preferably Brady to Godwin stacks, are very much in play, just like they were in play last week. And I think you can run it back with a couple of guys from Arizona, including guys like James Connor, who was 100 less than he was last week at 6,800.

How do you like this game? Like where are your pieces coming from? And are you going super contrarian and just getting off of the Miami game? I can't imagine getting off it completely, but are you getting off of it from a stack standpoint? Yeah, from a stack standpoint, I'm not going to be heavily stacking that game. Uh, it's very clearly Tom Brady stacks. Once again, um, I like this spot for him, just like I liked them last week. Uh, and last week he had a great

game. He, you know, you remove the four turnovers and he scores 30 fans. That's pretty easily, right? Uh, 312 passing yards, three touchdowns through the ball 44 times. I think he's going to have a great game here in this particular spot at 6,100. I'm probably going to end up stacking him with both Evans and Godwin. Love them both. Love Godwin. I think the floors are just incredibly high here. So, you know, if you want to play James Connor, I think it's fine. I think that you're probably mostly playing James Conner. You know, you can make the case for Rashad White if you want to really triple stack this up,

play Rashad White with two pass catchers and Tom Brady. That's projecting pretty well everything I'm running through right here. Yeah, so a lot of Tom Brady. I see a charge of 65 in here. He says hit on your Brady stack last week. Of course, that's Mike's Brady stack, man. At halftime of that game, Mike, it was looking like if you had a Brady stack, you were basically, I mean, don't get me wrong. It's still paid off. Like Brady to Godwin was still a good stack, but the way it was looking at like at halftime was like, Oh my gosh, this is, you know, we've got some outrights in order from the fantasy football today, DFS squad, including of course, Mike McClure. And it was those freak turnovers, Mike.

I mean, first of all, they played poorly in the second half. Like, so like even without the turnovers, they played a little poorly. Cincinnati stepped it up. They schemed a little bit better, but you don't have those turnovers. You get maybe one or two more touchdowns.

Like they were on a roll that that could have been a huge game. So I don't see a reason not to go back there. Yeah, no, I think they, they played incredibly well for that half. And then, uh, you know, like I said, four turnovers on nine plays, very deflating after you have the second one, uh, you know, in three plays, um, you know, all like dropped fumbles, things like that, that, that really weren't supposed to be turnovers necessarily. So yeah, I'm, I'm all in on the box on this three game slate for sure. Yeah. Roddy, uh, your Daniel Jones versus Purdy

question. I'll go Daniel Jones there and Russell gauge from townos to 11. I Russell gauge, you could throw into a stack on a three game slate. He was pretty productive last week, right? Mike? Yeah, no, pretty productive indeed. Uh, I think that where you're going to play him and where I think he'd be a great pivot on this individual slate is someone like Tutu Atwell, who I actually like Tutu Atwell. He dropped a touchdown in the last game, gets to play in a controlled environment here, much better spot overall. Having said that, Russell Gage is not going to have near the ownership that Tutu Atwell will on this slate. So that's where I would want to use him in a pivot situation there. On that Broncos-Rams game, which is only a 36.5 point total,

Denver favored by three, guys like Tutu Atwell at 3,500 certainly makes sense. Does Tyler Higby also make sense given the quarterback situation at 3,200? And would you be touching anybody else in that game? I mean, the running backs, I don't know that I would get to Cam Akers at 5,200. I don't like the running backs on the other side of the ball either. I don't know that I'm playing Jerry Judy at 5,800, anything in that game other than two, two at well. Um, I could see getting to Higby. I think Greg Dulcich will still be popular. Um, even though we've seen the quarterback change didn't materialize really to anything. Um, he just is projecting well, again, I think a lot of people still like him

and just grab onto that upside that they've seen. So I do like pivoting away from Dulcich on to Tyler Higbee. Other guys in the game, like I think Cam Akers is okay. I think that they'll use him a little more in the passing game. The price point is certainly attractive. At 5,200 on a three-game slate, he's like the eighth most expensive running back. Yeah, he's the eighth or ninth most expensive running back

on a three-game slate. Obviously, a couple of them have questionable tags with Aaron Jones, Latavius Murray, Wilson. Yeah, I like Cam Akers a lot here. And one thing to keep in mind, this is just like last Saturday. Again, these three games are on Sunday, but keep late swap in mind. Keep in mind that it's a three-game slate,

getting different with your roster construction, getting unconventional. Maybe you can do things that you wouldn't ordinarily do from a correlation standpoint, but we can't leave the three-game slate without at least addressing the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers. If you were going to play that game, is it a two-a-stack? Is it an Aaron Rodgers stack? And would you go ultra-aggressive here to maybe try to get different, or is that where the field is going anyway? I don't think the field's going to go there anyway. I think the field's going to play Tom Brady and then sprinkle pieces personally, just because of the pricing.

I'll play Tyree Kill. I'll have Tyree kill in a hundred percent of these lineups on three game slate, but more likely to stack Roger's side with one or two of his pass catchers. But it's mostly going to be Tom Brady for me and then sprinkling pieces in, but Tyreek will be my highest known player. That's not a quarterback. And if Jeff Wilson isn't playing, is it where he most earned an autoplay? And if Jeff Wilson is playing, do you avoid both of those backs? I'll probably avoid both. Um, just because Miami doesn't want to run the ball, even though that's what they should do in this spot, they're still going to throw. They've got two of, they've got the weapons, right? So if they're both active, I'm probably going to play guys like can makers on this slate,

going to play a little Rashad white, maybe some Latav murray um yeah that's where i'm at on that i i do i'll mention i like the packers they're one of my favorite bets of the week uh bet them on tuesday uh plus five around a three and a half now at this point wow um mix i think it makes sense i don't think miami's healthy i you know a week and a half ago i bet miami to miss the playoffs at plus 300. Um, that's, that's where I think this team has had personally. So we'll see if we're right or not, but that is the reason why I don't have two of stacks here in this particular spot. And speaking of injuries, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention part of the reason we like Gardner Minshew so much is because on the Dallas side of the defense, there's a lot of injuries there too. So Gardner Minshew gets a really good matchup

in terms of the conditions, but also the injuries that Dallas has as well. They still have a couple of key pieces, but again, it just goes back to Minshew that there's a lot of things in his favor this Saturday. Okay, final thing, Mike, and then we're definitely getting out of here. We've got a showdown tonight.

We've got a game. It's the Jets, it's the Jaguars. We both like the Jets. I can see you're supporting the Jets with your Jets green on right now. You know, this is going to be probably a a game. It's the Jets. It's the Jaguars. We both like the Jets. I can see you're supporting the Jets with your Jets green on right now. You know, this is going to be probably a sloppy game. It's going to be a little windy. It's going to be rainy.

Is this kind of one of those games from a showdown standpoint that you maybe look to the kickers, you look to the defenses, you look to the running backs and you call it a day? Is there maybe an unconventional play or a low cost play that you like to throw into your showdown lineups? Yeah, so I'm going to pull it up here and try and talk through it as I pull everything up. I've got it all up on Sportsline right now, by the way.

If you are a Sportsline member, you can see all my exposures in there. But the most interesting thing here would be I've got a ton of the Jets defense. I've got a ton of the Jags defense. Look, my number one player is still Zach Wilson in terms of overall exposure number two Garrett Wilson number three Jets defense number four Jaguars defense uh so love the defenses in this one very low on Trevor Lawrence relative to the field uh bet is unders um yeah I like the defenses to shine here not massive on the kickers. It is going to be rainy. It is going to be windy.

100% chance of rain in this game. You know, 17 to 20% ownership on them for me. So certainly not fading them completely, but not over the field like I am in some certain situations. Yeah, a lot of defenses tonight. All right. Absolutely love it. Mike, that's going to be our show.

We end it with such a great comment from Justin Goff, who if anybody doesn't know, this Justin Goff is actually the brother of Jared Goff. Not true, but how cool would that be? He says, LFGM squared. By the way, speaking of M squared, he did mention Sportsline. I believe, Mike, correct me if I'm wrong.

Maybe you don't know this. It's $10 a month for Sportsline, right? At the very most. The most you could possibly't know this, it's $10 a month for Sportsline, right? At the very most. The most you could possibly pay for Sportsline would be $10 a month. There are specials all the time, sometimes $49 annuals. Yeah, the absolute most you can pay is $10 a month. And it's at the absolute best value you can get. I mean, it's really kind of ridiculous, but you can get a lot of the, some of the Sportsline content

just from the shows that Sportsline does via the early edge. I'll be on later tonight at 7.30. Mike is on a lot of Sportsline shows, early edge shows, but including a lot of the primetime shows for these football games. So maybe you'll see me later tonight at 7.30,

but I encourage everybody to check out Sportsline because the data in there is actually, in my opinion, it's kind of unparalleled, particularly at the price. Thank you everybody for being in here with me and Mike. I will see you on Tuesday at five o'clock. Hopefully I'll see you on Sunday and Saturday with your posted lineups about how much money you won. So like tweet out your lineups. If you did really well this weekend, I hope you do. I hope you've joined our FFT DFS contest to the new people in here. And I saw all of you kind of raise your hand saying, I'm new, please make sure that you set your alerts, that you make sure you're in here at five o'clock on Tuesday and five o'clock on

Thursday, because we do this every week for the NFL through the playoffs. Thank you again for joining us. FFT DFS, that's Mike. I'm Sia, and we will see you on Tuesday.