Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 18 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (Fantasy Football Today DFS podcast)

Episode Date: January 5, 2023

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 18 DFS contest over on Draftkings- https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/139650837 Sia Nejad and Mike McClure are previewing the NFL DFS Week 18 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (2:00)- Patriots at Bills (9:30)- Jets at Dolphins (12:30)- Vikings at Bears (14:50)- Ravens at Bengals (17:30)- Bucs at Falcons (18:45)- Panthers at Saints (19:00)- Browns at Steelers (24:25)- Texans at Colts (30:45)- Cowboys at Commanders (35:00)- Giants at Eagles (39:20)- Cardinals at 49ers (42:10)- Chargers at Broncos (44:30)- Rams at Seahawks (46:50)- Mike’s Top 3 at Each Position (48:20)- Week 18 CHEAT SHEET 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, DFS. My name is Cian Ajad. That's Mike McClure.

This is our game-by-game preview. We're going to go right into the games. We have a Saturday slate, and if we have time at the end of the show, we're just going to touch on that two-game slate. But I want to remind everybody our FFT DFS contest is live. And go ahead and hit the like button if you're in here. Otherwise, Mike, how are you? How was last week?

You know, we looked at one of your lineups. You were the smart guy who had the Tom Brady stack. But obviously, there were some other issues with the lineup that you submitted to us. How did the week go? It was not a good week. It was a return zero dollars week for me. Fortunately, I had a really good over 10x. Some of it was 30, 40, 60x, depending on what you were playing the week before. So it evened out, but we never like to see

those return zero weeks. But unfortunately, that is the way it goes sometimes, especially when you play aggressively like I do. Right. And that aggressive play got you 10x or more the week before. So again, when you're playing tournaments, and this is why I continue to stress, everybody that's listening, I continue to stress cash games because that's where I hit last week. You saw the $200 win I had in my cash game, but I didn't do so well in tournaments either. But Mike, who plays really aggressively, well, he can afford to have a zero week

because the week before you saw his lineup, it was amazing. It was that Gardner Minshew lineup with Hodgins, with Richie James, with TJ Hawkinson. And when you get two or three of those weeks in a season, well, guess what? You're in the positive. So when you're a tournament player,

you can expect the zeros, perhaps more often than the wins, but the wins are always going to be big if you play it aggressively. So Mike props to you on that. I think we should just go into the games, Mike. We actually have the first game is the Patriots plus seven at the bills. It's a 42 and a half point total. I do want to extend some news to everybody that it appears, you know, from what I reading, that Darren Hamlin is improving in such a way that is, I'm speculating, but maybe he will be just fine. And again, we don't know everything yet, but when you hear stuff like neurologically intact and improving, that's just really good news. And I'm just really, truly relieved about that.

We talked about that a little bit on Tuesday. And of course, the Bills game against the Bengals ended up getting canceled. And Mike, before we get into this Patriots-Bills game, there are some implications here, right? Because the Bills may not be able to get a chance to secure the one seed. And therefore, is it possible that there is a scenario where they might not have to go all out in this game? I honestly wish I knew. I don't know 100% sure. I think that they want to go all out here at this point still.

Who knows what they decide to do with this game. I think there are a number of things in play. Unfortunately, we don't have the information from the league as far as how they're going to count the game in the standings or how the seeding will be determined. At this point in the week, while it's certainly possible that the Buffalo or Cincinnati has a little less to play for,

I think that we have to treat it as if they're going to play and, and try to win the game. Yeah. And I would, I would agree with that as well. And I, and I do think because, I mean,

this all, this always happens in week 18, obviously there's a special sort of scenario that's been, you know, been just sort of integrated into week 18. But week 18 is always kind of a weird week. So I think what you need to do with this podcast is take everything you can get from it in terms of, I know this is going to happen in this particular game. And believe me, there's a lot of games where we know exactly who's going to be rolled out, what the implications are, playoff scenarios, and all of those things. And we'll go over them in this podcast. Then there's going to be some games where we're just going to have to wait

for a little bit more information. So keep your eyes peeled and ear to the ground, so to speak, and wait for some of that other news. But I'll tell you, if the Bills are going to roll out their starters and still continue to go for that one seed, Mike, and again, we just have to wait on a little bit of information there, but that's what I'm expecting. Josh Allen, Stefan Diggs, is that stack in play? Is there anybody on the Patriots that's in play? Now, let's keep in mind, both of these teams, as it sits right now, have something to play for. The Patriots can absolutely make the playoffs if a couple things break their way. I want to point out that Jacoby Myers might be a nice play, but Hunter Henry also. Johnnie Smith, I believe, is still in the concussion protocol. Hunter Henry ran a bunch of routes last week. Now,

I don't think he's a great play necessarily, but I believe he's only 3,300. Might be a nice tight end to throw in there. Perhaps he'll end up being a little contrarian. If you play an Allen stack, I think Henry or Jacoby Myers is certainly in play there. I'm not going to be on Ramondre or Damian Harris. My question for you, Mike, is are you on anything in this game? Because I got to admit, I like Allen to digs, but I'm not super excited about it. Yeah, look, I like Allen to digs. I think that when it's all said and done, when we get the news, I think that I'll probably end up playing that route quite a bit still. I know for a fact, I'm going to play a few Patriots

on the Patriots side, assuming Jacoby Myers is good to go and play in this game. I do like him at 5,100. I think it's pretty obvious no matter who's playing for Buffalo, New England wants to win this game. It doesn't matter what Buffalo is doing. New England wants to win the game and their path to winning a football game like this. It's not going to be pounding the football 30 times. They've got to throw the ball. It's Myers for me. I like Taequann Thornton a little bit as well. His price point down to 3,300. Those are the guys I'm most focused on. I don't mind playing Hunter Henry. There are a couple other tight ends for teams that have to win also that I really like. So not going to be huge on Hunter Henry, but Jacoby Myers is someone who is in a number of my early lineups here when I built them. And if, if Devante Parker

comes out, emerges out of concussion protocol, does that change your opinion on Jacoby Myers at all? Not on Myers really probably would take me off of Thornton a little bit, even though Thornton is the cheap value piece. But yeah, certainly something to monitor there. But I don't think it has a massive, massive impact on Myers. And on the other side of the ball, when it comes to the bills, is it if you were going to stack it and, you know, Josh Allen to Stefan Diggs obviously makes sense. Are there any other bills, whether you're stacking or not, like Dawson Knox has begun to emerge? Do you take a chance on a Gabriel Davis or one of the two running backs? You know, with Singletary and James Cook, it does look like we just don't have enough information. It looks like Singletary will get more touches than James Cook, but we don't

really know because James Cook's touch share, it goes anywhere from like four to 11 over the last, I don't know, three or four weeks. So not a lot of certainty there. Any other bills in play? Uh, not at this point for me, I think it'd be just focusing on Stefan digs. I think he's going to clearly have the opportunity assuming that they're going out and trying to win this game. I'm still running through all the scenarios to see how this possibly works. I think that as far as the Bills go, they want to win the game, I assume. But as long as Kansas City beats the Raiders, Kansas City would get the one seed no matter what, right? Right.

Unless there's some sort of concession made by the league, which I can't imagine that happens. That's why I think we're even speculating about the bills in terms of running people out because not being able to get that win obviously puts them a half a game behind Kansas city. That's how I see it. Right. And then if that's the case, I can sense he even catch Buffalo for the two.

Like I, yeah, there's so much going on here. I'm just running it through my head. Like, I think the only thing that could make a little sense is if the league were to let Cincy forfeit the game, which I don't know why they would want to do that. Uh, knowing Cincy wouldn't be able to get the one seed no matter what, if they forfeit it. Uh, but I don't think they're forfeiting a game. I think it's yeah.

Um, so as more, I talked through this Buffalo. Yes. I like digs. Yes. I like Allen. If Kansas City wins, which is on Saturday, I don't envision playing any Buffalo guys. So I wanted to make that clear while we're talking about it here. If Buffalo can't get the one seed, I don't see any scenario where they risk injury to Josh Allen this year personally. So I wouldn't even be shocked if he didn't even play a snap in this game. No, that's a good point because we have the benefit of having the Kansas City game literally the day before. And for the record, Kansas City is a healthy favorite, but they could lose that game. We've seen bad teams compete with Kansas City.

We saw Jared Stidham step his game up or just show that he had any game whatsoever last week. So, I mean, obviously, if Kansas City wins that game, that's pretty big implications on the Bills, unless something else is introduced into this scenario. So if Kansas City wins, I think what Mike is saying, and I'm agreeing, is let's just get off the Bills altogether. Now, the Patriots is a different story. You still might want to stick with the Patriots, but the Bills probably don't have much to play for on Sunday if the Kansas City Chiefs win on Saturday. I do want to point out when you talk about resting Josh Allen, not only does he have that elbow injury, but, you know, before that game got stopped, he tweaked his ankle in such a way that, you know, I'm pretty sure that was going to have an impact the rest of the game. That didn't look like nothing to me, Mike, did it?

No, definitely not. It was an ankle, but it also looked like the knee was hyper extended a little bit on that that play where he took the hit uh yeah I'm pretty sure it was going to impact at least his mobility in that game uh absolutely absolutely okay so let's speaking of mobility or lack thereof so we've got the Jets plus two and a half at the Dolphins it's a 38 and a half point total I'm hearing that Mike Glennon could possibly play in this game, Mike. And I want to know, are you hearing that as well? Obviously, Skyler Thompson is slotted to be the quarterback, Mike White on the other side. The Jets are done. They don't have anything to play for,

but the Dolphins have quite a bit to play for. They need to win and they need a Pat's loss. Now, this is really interesting, right? Because what did we just talk about? We talked about how it's possible that the Bills might not have anything to play for. Boy, does that hurt the Dolphins. Boy, does that hurt the Dolphins. So we, again, these are things we need to see how Saturday goes. I feel like on Saturday night, by the time the Chiefs game starts, or at least by the time the Chiefs game ends, we're going to have a lot of answers to these questions. So as of now, the dolphins need to

win and they need a Pat's loss. Are you playing anybody in this game? It's tough. I, I think that there's some merit to a couple of the jets receivers, some of the younger guys who maybe just want the opportunity to put some stats up, but I don't love it. On the Miami side, I could make the argument for playing Tyreek Hill. I would not stack the game. I would not play whoever's playing a quarterback. I think that there is an argument to be made for Tyreek Hill just through sheer volume. Look, Miami wants to win the game still, no matter what, right? They want this game.

They're going to put the ball in Tyreek's hands. And we saw it last week. He had a rushing touchdown. I they, we saw it last week at a rushing touchdown. I think that we see similar things. They're going to find creative ways to put the ball in Tyreek Hill's hands. So on a slate where by the time it locks, we might have some, you know, very speculative, but value plays. Like we might have value plays all over where you could potentially speculate and play $3,000 players. When you can do stuff like that, I think that Tyree Kill is someone who should probably be in your player pool.

Having said that, we literally could get Joe Flacco versus Mike Glennon in this game, which is absolutely crazy. So Mike White, he was a full participant. I believe he was downgraded to limited today with the ribs. It's possible that we see that there. So there's a lot to unpack in this one. The only thing I can confidently say is Tyreek Hill will still be in my player pool. Other than that, I can't tell you at this point that I'll get to anyone else in this game.

Yeah, that makes perfect sense. Another game, and we can sweep by some of these games that don't really have a lot of DFS impact. This next one might qualify as that. It's the Vikings minus seven and a half at the Bears. It's a 43 and a half point total, which by the way, that's one of the higher totals of the slate. This is a very interesting slate where pretty much every game, and this will, this will, we'll see a little variation here because again, there's, there's, there's a few unknowns, but pretty much every slate is between, or every game is between 38 and like 43 points.

That that's what you're seeing. So there's no game that's going to stand out this week in terms of the total relative to other games. Vikings have an outside shot at the two seed. So that's something to note here, but to me, it's a very outside shot. It includes needing, I believe, the Eagles to lose that 14 point spread that they have against the New York Giants. I'm not sure if the Vikings end up rolling out their starters, but it's certainly possible with that outside shot. I don't know what to make of the Bears. Justin Fields was great for a quarter. And then to me, it looked like he aggravated prior lower leg injuries and just wasn't able to function as a running or passing quarterback. I'll note the leading receiver in that game was Cole commit and he had 27 yards. So I'm not expecting much from the bears. I'm not expecting much from the Vikings and I don't know who to roll out. So for me, this is a stay away. What about you? Yeah, I'm mostly going to stay away unless we get some really

confirming news that, you know, Hey, we don't care about risking injury. We're going to try to let Justin Jefferson grab the record, something silly like that. I don't see it happening. I think he needs 196 yards in this game. Like I said, which would be a massive, massive fantasy score. What I see happening in this game is I see Minnesota playing their guys the first half. Potentially a conservative game call, not getting anyone hurt, not putting a lot more out there on film, but letting them go through the motions and just be alive in case anything happens. So what's interesting about this game and a couple others, we'll, we'll talk about

both of them. Uh, I believe they all start at a, no, it's not the Dallas game does not. So the, okay, no, they might, Minnesota might have to, because the Eagles game is an afternoon game. I was thinking this was the Eagles played a 1 PM game where the Vikings would be able to have the benefit of kind of scoreboard watching a little bit. They don't have that opportunity. So I do think the Vikings play at least a half, but likely again, more conservative game call. Yeah. I think it's Vikings defense or nothing for me. I'm not going to be mad at you. If you want to include Justin Jefferson, I think there's always a shot. If he has a massive play in the first quarter, say he busts a 60 yard touchdown that they might they might say, okay, let's go for it.

But yeah, I think it's Vikings defense or nothing for me at this point. Yeah, and I'm going to go ahead and agree with you there. I don't think I'm, again, at this point with what we have now, I don't think I'm playing anybody there. Next game is the Ravens plus seven at the Bengals. It's a 40 and a half point total. This looks like it's going to be a big game for both teams. If the Ravens lose, then the Chargers may end up sitting their starters. So there's implications on this game for the four o'clock Chargers. There's a lot of afternoon games.

The Chargers are one of them. I say four o'clock. It's actually 425. All of the afternoon games, I believe, start at 425. So consider that for late swap. And you might need to be considering late swap, at least as it pertains to the Chargers, depending on what happens in this game. Now, I expect Mike the Bengals to beat the Ravens rather easily as a seven point favorite. But, you know, from a DFS standpoint, this is another game.

Trust me, we'll get to games where we actually like guys, but this is another game. I just don't like, yeah, it's really, really tough. Um, you know, I'm going to end up playing some of the Raven side just because I think their, their path is somewhat clear and that they want to win the game still. Um, so I think it's okay to play them. Um, we need a little bit more information, the information that we need, which again, we should have, but we will have before Saturday. I think the league's definitely going to make a determination on how playoff seating is going to work with this game. They're not resuming the game, no matter what.

That's already been, that decision has been made. They're not finishing the game. How they determine the playoff seating will determine whether or not Cincy has to go all out in this game. As of right now, I'm going to assume that they still want to go all out. Um, so I like burrow. I like Jamar chase. Um, I like Mark Andrews on the side. This is one of the games that I'm planning to play really heavily, but again, it could change drastically, uh, based on what the league decides to do. Um, I think that with them not finishing the game,

there's a 0% chance the Bengals can be the one seed. There was a chance they could be the one seed with two wins by winning that Buffalo game, but it doesn't look like they're going to have the opportunity to get a win in that column. Yeah, it's so much to sort through, but if the Bengals are playing are indeed playing for something truly here, then I will definitely be all over them.

They'll be my favorite team of the week. Okay, sounds good. And the Ravens, again, if they win, that puts the pressure on the Chargers. If the Ravens win, that puts the pressure on the Chargers to win as well so that the Chargers can secure the five seed. If the Ravens lose, the Chargers really won't have anything to play for because they will have already secured that five seed. So again, I think we'll get to the Chargers game. I kind of like some of the Chargers this week, but if they don't

roll out their starters, this game is really going to tell the story. Bucs plus four at the Falcons. I mean, sorry, we front loaded this with some meaningless games, but this is certainly a meaningless game. Bucs have secured their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons aren't playing for anything. But, Mike, does that mean we're not playing anybody here for DFS? I'll play Algier a little bit, Tyler Algier. I think that he's certainly viable at the running back spot. I think they're going to continue to give him the usage,

the price points right. It makes a lot of sense. Maybe not going to see the best effort on the Tampa side. So, yeah, I think that as of right now, that is really the only thing I'm getting to. I don't hate it if you want to play Drake London and want to continue to speculate there. I think that that's okay.

Yeah, and I actually agree with you. I didn't have Algier on my list, but the Bucs probably aren't rolling out all of their defensive starters for obvious reasons. In Algier, it's one thing if you don't want to play Cordero Patterson as the Falcons. That kind of makes sense. He's a little bit older. Algier being a rookie, having a good season, I'm sure the staff is going to want Algier to put his punctuation mark on this season. Perhaps Drake London as well, but I do like the Algier play quite a bit, but I agree with you. After that, I'm moving on.

Speaking of moving on, the Panthers plus three and a half at the Saints, 42 point total, not a lot to play for here. Anybody in this game? Not right now. Shahid is always interesting and you can always speculate there. I think there's some upside. Other than that, you know,

Alvin Kamara in these spots we normally would like. There's not enough to play for, in my opinion here. Olave, if you want to, I guess, but not anything I'm getting to personally, at least not yet. Yeah, agree. And by the way, this is kind of good fortune for us and for everybody watching and listening. Part of the reason we're flying through these games is because they are kind of relatively meaningless from a DFS standpoint, but it's also going to give us some time after we do Mike's top three, by the way, hit the like button. If you can, after we do Mike's top three and we do our cheat sheets, we're going to get in maybe just for five minutes, but we're going to get into the two games Saturday slate and flying through some of these games that really, we don't really need to talk about are going to allow us to do that.

So let's go to Browns plus two and a half at the Steelers. It's a 40 and a half point total. Believe it or not, the Pittsburgh Steelers, man, Mike Tomlin is I can't heap any more praise on this guy than I already have. Because I mentioned him on Tuesday, I believe. But they have plenty to play for. They need a win and they need the Dolphins to lose against the New York Jets and they need the Pats to lose at Buffalo.

So the Steelers, again, are very much in play. Again, that Buffalo game, in terms of what they have to play for, has implications everywhere, not just to the Dolphins and to the Patriots themselves, but to the Steelers. And so there's going to be sort of a domino effect here, depending on how that goes. But again, Browns plus two and a half at the Steelers. And so there's going to be sort of a domino effect here, depending on how that goes. But again, Browns plus two and a half at the Steelers.

I think a popular play here, Mike, is going to be Najee Harris and the price point. It totally makes sense. And he had a nice game. I believe he had 22 rushing attempts. He obviously caught that pass, a really great catch to win the game for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The one caution I would have there, and I want to get your opinion here, Jalen Warren looked better to me between the tackles than Najee Harris, and he got plenty of carries. I believe he got 12 or 13 carries. Should we be worried about that, or do we just know Najee Harris

against the Browns of all teams? He's going to get the volume anyway, so he's good to go. I think he's good to go. I think he's going to get the volume anyway. If he's good to go. I think he's good to go. I think he's going to get the volume anyway. Uh, if I were involved in the Pittsburgh Steelers at all, I would certainly start to explore some sort of sets that we could see both backs on the field together at this point, because they're still decent in the passing game as well. Uh, we know that they're looking for some of those shorter depth targets for Kenny Pickett. Um, but yeah, long, long story short, I think that he's still fine. I think he's still got enough upside on a site like draft Kings with PPR. Uh, I think

he's certainly going to catch passes still. So I'm not too worried about it. And overall, I like this game, honestly. Um, well, that's what I was going to ask you. Are there other pieces? Like, does Kenny Pickett make it into the conversation in terms of stacking and obviously Deontay Johnson, it looks like he's returned to practice with shaking off a hip injury. We got George Pickens and then we've got the other side of the ball. What are you interested in in this game? It sounds insane, but I'm interested in stacking this game. Honestly, I'm interested in insane.

I'm interested in insane. That's how you win big money like you did two weeks ago. So please, the floor is yours. Yeah. So I like Deshaun Watson, actually. He's close. He's probably going to be one of my top three quarterbacks if I don't get to play one of Allen or Burrow or both.

I like Watson. He still is running the football, right? He's still going to get you 30 rushing yards, potentially a rushing touchdown. But they played really well at the end of that game last week. They had touchdowns on three consecutive drives. I think that this is more of a positive moment for them to move forward towards next year.

I think the Browns go absolutely all out in this game. I think that this is one spot where there's, if there were ever a team that would derive some pleasure from keeping an opponent out of the playoffs, it is most definitely the Browns on the road in Pittsburgh to the Steelers team. I think that that's a spot where the Browns are going to really give every ounce they have in this game personally. So I like Deshaun Watson. I like the natural bring backs on the other side. I might play Deshaun Watson naked, no stack, and then play some of Najee, some of Deontay Johnson, a little Pat Friermuth,

potentially both of them on the way back. Yeah, I think this game, while one of the lowest totals and it screams low scoring defense, like first team to 20 wins this game for sure. I still think it could be a very good DFS game on this very weird slate. Well, I think you're absolutely right that especially in the AFC North, like you're, you're, you're going to battle until the end in terms of the end of the season, but you're also right about Deshaun Watson. Like he hasn't looked great yet, even though they got a win against Washington, that wasn't really Deshaun Watson. That was Washington being terrible and Carson Wentz setting up short fields. Like we all knew he was going to do for the Cleveland

Browns. So I, there is still like some progress to be made for Deshaun Watson in terms of running that offense. And, you know, he gets another opportunity. So this can be an imposing Steelers defense at times, but I don't hate the play. Deshaun Watson at 5,600 on DraftKings and certainly value across the board with Najee being 6,100. I think if you wanted to get super contrarian and you wanted to take a piece from this game, I think Jalen Warren is at least in the conversation

because I think he's more likely to break one than Najee Harris. But I agree with you. Watson, Najee Harris, Deontay, Fryermuth, maybe Pickens. I think they're all in play. So I think that's a pretty smart observation coming from you. Let's go to the Texans plus 2.5 at the Colts. It's a 38 and a half point total. This is the last of the one o'clock games. We have more than a handful of afternoon

games for 25 games, but this is the last of the one o'clock games. Neither of these teams have anything to play for other than draft position. The Texans would love to secure a loss. I would imagine to secure the number one spot if they happen to win this game, and it's a very winnable game at the Colts, obviously, then the Bears could potentially slip right into that number one spot, which would be obviously great for that franchise who already believes to have their quarterback. With that said, Zach Moss at 5,200 against Houston, who's allowing about 5.2 yards per carry. That's good for 30th in the league. Moss getting a lot of volume. I don't see why he wouldn't get volume in this one.

To me, he's pretty darn close to an autoplay, at least in cash, maybe in tournaments for the savings at the running back position. What say you? Yeah, I like him a lot. It's between him and Tyler Algier for one of the spots in my lineup as of right now. So I like Moss. Certainly should be able to run all over this defense, especially a defense that, you know, I don't know how that message is handled across the board, but they shouldn't want to win the game.

They really shouldn't, right? So, you know, it's difficult to relay that message to guys on the field who are earning paychecks, putting up stats that determine how, you know, what their future in the league looks like. Right. So it's always a weird situation to navigate, but I like Moss a lot. And on the other side, I sound insane for this, but I'm probably going to have a Sam Ellinger lineup. You know, I thought you might say that, um, you certainly won with, even though he wasn't very good, you certainly won with the same Ellinger lineup when they first rolled him out.

So if you do, does that mean you're pairing him with somebody like Michael Pittman or Paris Campbell? I would think Michael Pittman would be the natural guy to pair him with. If you decided you wanted to do that, is he the guy it is, but it's also a situation where I might play him naked i think he's going to run a little bit still he's had that ability i think he definitely can in the red zone but it's more of a salary savings play i'm not sure it's all going to go to pitman i'm not sure pitman's going to be out there the entire complement of snaps uh what it would be betting on basically is that the houston defense is bad enough moss can help move the ball between the tackles. We'd be basically betting on Indy to score 24 plus points in the game. And then what it would do is it would allow me to

speculate up and play, say that the Bills and the Bengals both want to win, right? Whatever the league decides, they both, for some reason, really want to win the game. Now I can play Jamar Chase, Stefan Diggs in the same lineup very easily. I could still play Christian McCaffrey if really want to win the game. Now I can play Jamar Chase, Stefan Diggs in the same lineup very easily. I could still play Christian McCaffrey if I want to. Things like that. So that's the scenario where I would play a Sam Ellinger lineup. And I was focused on the stack. I'd be mostly betting on the Colts to essentially be winning a game

that features very little defense. Absolutely. All right. Well, listen, we have five 425 games to talk about. Then we're going to quickly go over Mike's top three at each position. We're going to reference our cheat sheets. And then we're going to talk for at least a few minutes about the Saturday two game slate. But before we do all of that, and we're going to do it at some pace,

before we do all of that, we're going to hear a message from our partners. Okay, we are back. It's FFT DFS. My name is Sian Ajad. That's Mike McClure. Hit the like button if you're in here. And by the way, happy birthday to Richie Smalls, 2320 in the chat. And he says he needs that Mike McClure core at the end. Richie, we will be bringing it to you. You also have a question about Justin Jefferson. Listen, he's 195 yards away. It's just too far. If he had a decent game last week, I think he chases that record, but I don't see it happening. And I don't think he's really going to try to make it happen at this point. Terrible game last week for all those who played Justin Jefferson. I had him in a fantasy championship, so that didn't go well. Let's see. We had another question about ownership. Real quick, Mike, is ownership just really kind of all over the board right now with so much unknown? Yeah, it's all over the board with everything unknown at this point. As far as how I figure the estimated ownership, a lot of it is coming mathematically and looking at other sources. So I'll look at all the content that's generated in the industry. I

look at four or five other competitors, look at what their recommendations are, look at their projection sets, compare them and kind of understand how a lot of lineups are built by using an optimizer. So it starts to land on certain players. That's how I determine the projected ownership numbers. And another way for you to determine a lot of things, Mike, I do want to pitch Sportsline because it's extremely cheap and there's going to be a lot of information, particularly this weekend, that is just going to be very relevant that, you know, Mike McClure is actually going to put out on Sportsline. So I would very I highly encourage everybody to join Sportsline for a variety of reasons, not just because this weekend is kind of weird with the NFL, but Mike puts out content for golf. We got a tournament going on right now, Mike, which once this show is done, I'm going to be watching. I've got a bunch of plays out there, but the long and short of it is you cover NBA,

you cover MLB. When that rolls around, you pretty much cover everything. And all of your content can be found on Sportsline, correct? All of it can be found on Sportsline. It's a great week to join if you haven't yet, because there's so much influx between now and Saturday on this particular show. You just saw that beautiful Top Gun ad. You sign up for Spine. You've at least got a free trial of Paramount Plus included in that. You can go watch the movie. Fantastic movie. Oh, wow. You know, I haven't watched it yet and I'm super embarrassed about it. Oh, yeah. You got to see it. Great. I can't I can't believe I just admitted that. I'm embarrassed. Okay. Speaking of embarrassed, professional transition, I am a Washington Commanders fan,

and I was all over Twitter talking about how much I hated the move from Heineke to Carson Wentz. And listen, I'm not the only guy that was saying that, or girl. There was a lot of people who thought that was extremely curious. And here we are. The Commanders are out of the playoffs, so this game against the Cowboys means nothing to them. The Cowboys, a seven-point favorite. They have perhaps something to play for

if the Eagles lose. I believe they can clinch the NFC East. I'm not super interested in this game. Now, this is in the 425 slot. So that is when the Eagles play. So the Cowboys, you would think, Mike, thinking they have, even though the Eagles are a 14 point favorite, and we'll get to that game after this one, do the Cowboys roll out their guys here? Is that what happens? the first half. I think they prepare. They play the first half. Again, they play maybe a little conservative. We don't put a ton of stuff on film. Nothing new, certainly, right? I think they play until half and look at the scoreboard when they're in the locker room at halftime and kind of see what the Eagles game looks like. They're 14-point favorites. Are they in command? Is there any jeopardy at all of the Eagles losing? If there is, you continue to play, right? It's 2023. We've got access to the game at all times, right? They're going to have all the information they could possibly need to know whether or not they need to continue to play. If the Eagles game is in hand,

I don't see any reason for Dallas to get anybody hurt, especially on the road, right. Playing in no offense, but one of the worst stadiums in the NFL. Right. And like, it's totally, I think it's one where these guys could definitely play a half conservatively, not come back out there. So a minute ago, I speculated on Sam Ellinger. I'll speculate on Sam Howell. I think that what does Washington have to lose here? I don't think they should have a game plan where they're going to just make him hand the ball off, right? Yeah, that's true. You want to see what you've got.

So if they could fall behind in this game, if Dallas cares for a half and puts us in a guaranteed trailing game script, like I could get behind Howell. The issue is who's he going to throw to? We don't know what that's going to necessarily look like. But if you're going to speculate on a $5,000 or less quarterback, he's certainly talented. Well, you're right about Sam Howell. You know, it's funny how his fall from grace from college,

you know, I believe it was UNC, right? Mike, where two and a half years ago, they were talking about him as like the number one pick. And then it just, it all kind of went downhill for him. But with that said, this is, of course, it's an audition for him and it's an audition in the best possible circumstances as far as auditions go, because you have Carson Wentz and Taylor Heineke and nobody really in Washington, it's not seeming like anybody really wants to go back to those two. And that kind of makes sense. So I don't think Sam Hale is going to be the starter next year, but if he shows out in week 18, well, then he's firmly in that conversation. I think the answer to your question, there's not a really good answer in terms of who

he's going to throw to you, but I would expect maybe McLaurin snaps go down just a touch. I would expect Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, maybe even Cam Sims to really get, get from a snap count standpoint to really get there. So I think if I was going to, you know, you're trying to get lucky here, right? Let's be honest. But I think Sam Howell to Dotson or Curtis Samuel, maybe McLaurin. But I think that makes sense. If you're willing to take the chance there, I think that makes sense.

The question I have for you, if you do that, who would be the, quote, safe run back? Whether they play two quarters or four, do you just go to the, to the top Pollard is healthy. You could play him, but maybe you just play CD lamb or Dalton Schultz. I happen to like Dalton Schultz this week, regardless. Yeah, I think Schultz would be fine. Uh, for me, it would probably still be CD lamb, uh, just based on volume. I think that if they are going to play two quarters, um, and they still look, they still want to win the game either way, no matter what's going on with Philly.

I think that they tried the first two quarters and we've seen halves for CD lamb where he's still sitting seven targets, right? So if he scores a touchdown, he could easily have, let's say five for 75 and a touchdown and not kill you. And if all of a sudden they've got to play four quarters because the Philly game's competitive, it could be an absolute smash spot against Washington. That's certainly

checked out defensively. Absolutely. So let's actually move on to that Eagles game because there's obviously a lot that's, you know, pending that game. And I guess the good news for, I don't know whether it's good or bad news, but that this is a later game. This is a 425 game. Giants plus 14 at the Eagles, 43 point total. The question becomes, do any of the real New York Giants starters play? And I think the spread is telling us the answer there, right? So who are those guys that might sit or might play a very limited number of snaps? Certainly Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones. I don't know about the receivers because those guys aren't really like starters anyway. So I don't know about the receivers because those guys aren't really starters anyway. So I don't think we're really playing anybody on the New York Giants side, Mike,

unless we have news that a backup is going to get a full complement of snaps, like a backup running back, maybe Matt Breida, for example, or Gary Brightwell. On the other side, though, I think the question for me is, are Hurts stacks in play? And the reason I even feel like I have to ask that, I understand the Eagles have to is, are Hurts stacks in play? And the reason I even feel like I have to ask that, I understand the Eagles have to win, but does Hurts use his legs? We know he's not a hundred percent with his shoulders. So I just wonder, does he sit back in the pocket? And if the answer is, well, he doesn't use his legs well against the Giants backups, does he just pass for three or four touchdowns? I mean, isn't that in play as well? Couldn't you

do a Hurts stack with Devante or AJ Brown or two of Devante, AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard? I certainly think that you can. I think that there is still a ton in play here. Number one, I'm not a hundred percent convinced that Jalen Hurts is playing this week. So I think that likely that he does now and tries to go out there and go through it. I also think that the second that the game is in hand, I think that it's turned back over to Gardner Minshew personally. I don't see a ton of reason to leave him out there knowing what he's going through.

But yeah, limited again. The thing that I worry about when you have an injury like this is just overall grip strength too, right? Like, can you secure the football? That's what I really, really worry about. They don't want to get him hurt. If he's cleared and active, I want to play him. The issue that we run into is it's a four o'clock game.

We need to know more on Buffalo. We need to know more on Cincinnati. I'd rather play Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, knowing the injury situation here with Jalen Hurts. I'd rather play those two guys first, personally. I think that Jalen Hurts, if he plays, a stack there is totally fine. I will speculate with you that he will not use his legs as much

and invite extra contact. I don't think that that's something they're going to try to do. But yeah, at this point, I need more information, unfortunately, on the Bills and the Bengals game. And the reason why, I know I keep talking about it about, I want to run through it again very, very quickly, right? The two seed. That's basically what they're playing for at this point.

If Kansas City beats the Raiders, Kansas City is going to get that one seed. I think that that's pretty clear from the league. The issue is if Buffalo lose and the Bengals win, it's super complicated because they're tied at 12-4 each, which means it goes to the tiebreakers. But they have the same conference record and the same record against common opponents. Wow. So what is the next tiebreaker, which would be strength of victory, which is impacted by this week 18 schedule and what everything there. So I don't know what the tiebreaker truly becomes at that point, but I think that there's a scenario here where even if the Bengals win and the bills were to lose, the Bengals still can't get the two seed.

So if the Bengals can't get the two seed, they're locked into the three seed essentially here. What are they planning for? And if they're not planning for anything and the chiefs already win, what are the bills planned for? Right. Wow. That's that information from the league, as far as how they're going to determine this tiebreaker, because it determines quite a bit here.

Absolutely. Yeah. So we'll have to, how I feel about Jalen hurts. He's third in line after those two, considering his injury, for DFS for me. Right, and I would agree with that assessment. I might bump him ahead of Burrow and just try to gamble that he flings it around. I mean, they do have a 28.25 implied total, which is certainly among the bigger ones in the league.

But I totally understand where you're coming from there. Speaking of high implied point totals, we got the Niners at home against Arizona. So this is another kind of interesting situation because the Niners have to scoreboard watch a little bit too with respect to the Eagles. If the Eagles happen to somehow lose, well, now the Niners, if they win, if they beat Arizona, which I fully expect them to do, they get the number one seed. So, you know, it's interesting because if Gardner Minshew gets rolled out and Jalen Hurts can't go, like, listen, all bets are off. The Niners like have a real shot at the number one seed. So they're going to have to roll out their starters,

whether Jalen Hurts plays or not. Right, Mike? So like the question becomes with such a high implied point total, 27.25, who do we play on that 49er side? Is it just like CMC and we call it a day? Like what do we do here? For me, it's going to be CMC and call it a day for right now. I think it's fine to speculate on the receivers. Heck, I think it's fine to speculate on Purdy. I think that there's a scenario where they just all systems go to the first half, just like Dallas.

They, they check the scoreboard at halftime and kind of monitor it and see where everything's going. Right. Uh, but there's a scenario here where against the Cardinals that Purdy has two or three first half touchdowns. Like it's not likely, but it's certainly possible. Um, for me, it's going to be CMC and that's it to start. But in week 18, like this, I don't hate speculating on,

on Purdy as well. Yeah. I do want to point out that James Connor, that shin injury appears to be just fine. He was back at practice. Debo Samuel practiced in full. I'm not going to speculate on the receivers. They're a great game from Brandon. I, you, I didn't play him last week, but you know, Brandon, I, you Debo Samuel, George Kittle. I'm not really going to get into any of those three unless you just want to take that contrarian Purdy stack and stack it maybe with CMC, but also maybe with one of the receivers. Feel free to add Ayuk or maybe George Kittle to that one. But I don't think, on the other side of the ball, real quick, nobody to really play. I'm not counting on James Conner. Finally, I think he's probably not going to get the full complement of snaps this game. Even if he does against the Niners, I'm not too on James Connor. Finally, I think he's probably not going to get the full complement of snaps this game.

Even if he does against the Niners, I'm not too excited about it. We have David Blau likely starting for the Arizona Cardinals. At least that's how I see it right now. Nobody to play on the Arizona side, right? I'm going to play Greg Dortch again, honestly. And the reason for it is you look at every game that he's really played this year. I say really played like really been higher on the depth chart. He's had 10 targets or more on every single one of them. He had 10

targets last week. The issue was the efficiency, right? He caught four balls, uh, for 15 total yards. I'm not banking on that level of inefficiency again, although it is a very, very difficult matchup overall. Uh, I think he gets the ball in his hands, especially later in this game at 3,800. I think they still showcase him a bit. So as of right now, I'm going to play Dortch again. Yeah, and don't forget, he didn't have a productive game last week, but he had 10 targets. So it was just one of those things where the efficiency wasn't there.

So I get that. Chargers plus two and a half at the Broncos. I think this one's a little interesting. Obviously, we have one o'clock game implications here. If the Ravens lose to the Bengals, then this game doesn't really matter for the Chargers. And I don't think the Chargers is going to roll out any of their key guys. So again, if the Ravens lose to the Bengals, my advice here, Mike, unless you want to change my mind, is don't play any Chargers.

Yeah, it's don't play any Chargers until we get news that we have to. So biggest piece of advice here would be, you know, you, you got to scoreboard watch a little bit. You got to leave yourself open to late swap. Um, watch the betting market. If the two and a half plus two and a half goes to chargers minus three and a half, play some chargers. If not stay away. Absolutely agree with that. I don't know. See on the other side of the ball, what's interesting here is we know that Denver, you know, they want to rally behind Russell Wilson, or at least by all appearances, they do. I'm sure they'd love to go into the off season with a win. I mean, am I crazy for liking a Russell Wilson stack with a $4,800

Cortland Sutton or a $6,300 Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy still kind of, I believe, is shaking off an ankle injury, but he was at practice. Sutton appears to be fully healthy. What about a Russell Wilson-Cortland Sutton stack thinking, hey, it's likely he goes up against Chargers backups. And even if he doesn't go up against Chargers backups, we know he's going to be trying. And the Chargers aren't necessarily the best pass defense.

I think Latavius Murray might be in play in this game too. What say you? Yeah, I actually like Russell Wilson here. It's kind of similar to the Deshaun Watson situation. I think that this is a game where they really, you know, they're not going to try and get them hurt, obviously, but you're going to play hard. You want to go into the off season and really kind of make a little bit of a statement for next season. Perfect opportunity to do it, Um, you know, in front of the home crowd there in Denver, he scored 26 points in two of the last three games, both of them against Kansas city. Uh, this game could look a lot like that game. So yeah, I like Russell Wilson here at 5,400. What about Wilson to Sutton and Albert? Oh,

cause we know Greg Dulcich is on IR. Yeah. Yeah, I think that if you wanted to stack it up, I would probably double stack it. It would probably be those two guys. Albert O, 2,900, and Cortland Sutton, 4,800, Russell Wilson, 5,400. You can kind of do what you want if you put that stack in play. Okay, the Rams are at the Seattle Seahawks. This is the last of the 4 o'clock games, and then we will get to Mike's top three at each position. Now, the Seahawks need to win, and they need to hope that the Lions beat Green Bay. It's tricky, though, right? Because if the Seahawks win, that means they have eliminated the Detroit Lions. So they would need Dan Campbell and company, which I think they will, to play all

out to try to beat Green Bay. So it's an unfortunate situation for the Seahawks. They're six point favorites against the Rams. It's a 41 and a half point total. I love Ken Walker in this game and I do like Cam Akers as well. Other than that, I don't really like anything here. I think Gino to DK certainly makes sense, but for me, I'm probably not going there. I'm just hoping for a huge Ken Walker game. For the record, he's averaging 26 touches over the last two games, and he's been highly productive in sort of bad matchups, frankly, coming off that ankle injury. So I love him at 6,400, one of my favorite plays. And I know you're not supposed to correlate running backs with running backs, but I don't hate the idea of playing Walker and Cam Akers. Maybe I don't play them in the same lineup, but Akers has been very efficient over the last four

or five games. What say you? Yes, he has been very efficient. I've been speculating that the usage might go down a little there, and it really hasn't. So that's a little interesting to me. I like the Seattle side a lot. Geno Smith's going to be one of my top three quarterbacks when I give you the top three here in a minute. Reason for that is all of the unknown that we've talked about

for the last 45 minutes. We do know one thing. They're playing at home. They got to win the football game. That's what we know. We know that this Rams defense is not a great defense at this point in the season. This game could be a little bit of a sneaky shootout. You've got a guy on Mayfield on the other side.

Still has got a lot to prove. Yeah, I like Kenneth Walker by far running back on the slate. I like Geno Smith. It could be a lineup where I have Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, and DK Metcalf. And we're shooting for 30 points from Seattle, and we're going to capture all of them here, right? I think that that is very, very viable on this slate. So I like Metcalf. I like Walker.

I like Geno. All right. Note that Will Disley on IR,. No offense also appears to be popping up with a bit of an injury. So maybe we look at third stringers there if you want to get really crazy, but all right, Mike, without further ado, let's, let's race through your top three. Cause I at least want to spend a couple minutes on this Saturday slate and just terms of your favorite, maybe your favorite stack, your favorite way to play those two games. Let's get your top three at the quarterback running back wide receiver, tight end, and defense.

Yes. And we will preface this with please visit Sportsline on Saturday or Sunday for an updated version. But we're going Joe Burrow, number one, assuming they have to play for something. Geno Smith, two. And you have talked me into Russell Wilson being the number three. I think this is a good spot for Russell Wilson. We'll see how that goes for me. At the running back position.

Kenneth Walker, number one, Christian McCaffrey, number two. I think it's all in on McCaffrey at this point. And then number three, I'm going Tyler Algier right now could pivot to Zach Moss, but mostly going to be Tyler Algier.

I think he gets the usage once again for the Falcons wide receiver, again, highly speculative, but Jamar chase, assuming the Bengals have something to play for. Greg Dortch, Deontay Johnson. I like Deontay Johnson. I think he's going to be heavily involved for the Steelers.

I think they've got to win that game. For the tight end position, Pat Fryermuth, Mark Andrews, and Hayden Hurst featuring all of the AFC North tight ends really at this point. Look, I think they've all potentially got something to play for. And then a defense, we're going Vikings, Dolphins, and Texans. And I will note, because we talked about the Eagles and Niners being heavy favorites, the two most expensive defenses are the Niners at 4,100 and the Eagles at 4,000. I just felt like noting that because I meant to note it earlier.

Okay, Mike, that sounds good. I'm going to roll through my cheat sheet. You got to understand, though, this is week 18, and there's more unknowns than normal on this week 18. So this is sort of subject to change. We may not even tweet this one out for a variety of different reasons. But the stack that I like right now, and this very well could change and probably should change, is Josh Allen to Stefan Diggs.

But I might agree with Mike on that Russell Wilson stack. I might play that or the Geno Smith stack. So I'm kind of throwing a few at you because I think things might change here. My chalk play is Kenneth Walker, 6,400. My value play is Zach Moss at 5,200. My contrarian, Cortland Sutton at 4,800. I don't really have a fade right now because frankly, I don't know who's playing and who's not playing. So for now I'll skip over the fade. Mike, your cheat sheet. We're going to start with Burrow to Jamar Chase. Again, heavy assumption that they have to play this game. Christian McCaffrey is going to be my chalk play. Love McCaffrey, at least for the first half of that game. Value play. I'm listing Greg Dortch for now. I'm going to go back to play him. I think it correlates relatively well with Christian McCaffrey. My contrarian play, Albert O from the Denver Broncos. You talked me into it with Russell Wilson. The stack is simply too cheap. He's 2,900 with a

$5,400 quarterback. My fade is going to be Dalvin Cook. Look, I think that the Vikings are going to try to win the game, at least for the first half. They're going to play a little bit. It's going to be a conservative game plan. Cook's going to be popular based on the ownership that I see. I'm not convinced he sees the lion's share of the work. I think Madison takes quite a few carries in this one. And if there's remote success early and they hit Justin Jefferson on a 70-yarder early in the game,

I think they pivot and go get him the record. I'm going to be off of Dalvin Cook here. I like that fade quite a bit. All right, real quick, before we get out of here, we got the two games on Saturday. I think they're really exciting games to have like a two game slate for. So I wanted to get your opinion in terms of like what you like. So it's the chiefs at the Raiders, 52 and a half point total seven and a half point spread. Obviously the chiefs are favored there. That's at Las Vegas, by the way. And the Titans are at the Jaguars, only a 40 point total, six and a half point spread. You know, I think Stidham is in play here, Mike. Obviously Mahomes is going to be solid. It's just a matter of who you want to stack him with. Titans and Jags,

that's an extremely important game. I think Derrick Henry's in play. And I think the Jags pass catchers in particular are in play. Maybe what's one or two stacks that you're focused on? Yeah. I mean, I'll stack both sides of the Chiefs game. Obviously, I think that Mahomes to any of the pass catchers is fine. I probably will have a Mahomes triple stack. And what I mean by that is it'll likely be Mahomes to Kelsey and Meikle Hardman, assuming he's playing, he's only 3,700. Um, and then I'll probably have Jarek McKinnon. You could also do in there if you wanted to, uh, then basically the same thing. I'd stack, stood them up on the other side. Uh, any of the pass catchers there really are fine. Um, you know, if you want to go in and play Devante,

I think that that's fine. We'll see if they limit his usage at all. Yeah, I like that. As far as quarterbacks and stacking, I will not be stacking either side of the Jacksonville-Tennessee game. Derek Henry, is he a must if you're making three lineups? Does he need to be in all three, or is there a game script where maybe he just gets away from Derek Henry? I personally don't think so as far as getting away from him.

I like Derek Henry to be someone I play. I'm in the minority, but I think the Titans are alive to win this game. So I agree. I agree with you. Yep. On the Jacksonville side, if you had to pick a receiver,

Christian Kirk, 6,200, Zay Jones, 5k. And then we've got Evan Ingram at 4,500. Ingram. It's hard to ignore what he's done and you've got to play a tight end here. I'm allocating a lot of what I'm doing to Travis Kelsey in this

slate, but I do like the double tight end. So I'll say Ingram. Yeah, I like Ingram too, but I will say Darren Waller at 4,400. If you're going to play that two tight end set, which I'm likely to do as well. I think Kelsey with Waller or Kelsey with Ingram. I think you could do a variety if you're doing more than one lineup and get those both in there. Cause I think Darren Waller could absolutely flash against Kansas city. So Stidham, Devante Adams, Darren Waller stack with maybe two or three runbacks. And then on the, on the Mahomes side, Mahomes, Kelsey, maybe McCall Hardman or McKinnon. And then you bring it back. I mean, it's only two games. So don't be afraid to be unconventional. Quadruple stack, like Mike said. Play a defense against some of your offensive players. That's obviously going to be in play in a two-game slate. So get different.

Really focus on what you like and just throw everything at it. All right, Mike, anything more on this? I think that's it. Just stay tuned. We'll tweet out news when we get it. You guys will all find the news and best time to join Sportsline if you haven't. Absolutely. Those words are so true. All right. My name is Sian Ajad. That's Mike McClure. We'll be back, I believe, next Tuesday. We'll probably do a little bit of a recap and we're going to look ahead to the wildcard round. But for now, we're out of here. It's Thursday. We got to go. My name is Sian Ajad. That's Mike McClure. This here. It's Thursday. We got to go. My name is Sina Jha. That's Mike McClure. This is FFT DFS. We'll see you soon.