Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 6 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (10/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: October 14, 2022

Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 6 DFS contest over on Draftkings- https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/133965537 Sia Nejad and Jacob Gibbs are previewing the NFL DFS Week 6 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (2:40)- TB at PIT (5:36)- BAL at NYG (9:34)- NYJ at GB (14:40)- SF at ATL (18:30)- MIN at MIA (25:47)- CIN at NO (31:10)- NE at CLE (34:30)- JAX at IND (36:50)- CAR at LAR (38:10)- ARI at SEA (44:30)- BUF at KC (52:00)- Top-3 plays (54:30)- Week 6 Cheat Sheet 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to power your scale with no preset spending limit. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, DFS. My name is Sia Najad, and that's not Mike McClure. If you're watching us on YouTube, this might be the coolest hair I've ever seen.

Jacob, I am so envious of your hair. It's none other than Jacob Gibbs. Jacob Gibbs from Sportsline, from Fantasy Football Today, from so many other amazing things. Jacob, I'm so envious of you here. It's none other than Jacob Gibbs. Jacob Gibbs from Sportsline, from Fantasy Football Today, from so many other amazing things. Jacob, I'm so happy to have you. How are you doing today, bud? I'm great, man. I'm really, really excited to talk to you this late. Glad to be back.

Always a joy and a pleasure to record with you and excited to hear your thoughts on this. Awesome. I can't wait to get through it. So for those of you that are new to the show, a couple of ground rules. One, you've got to hit the like button. Any questions you have, we're going to try to get to them. We try to speed through this show. And I'll tell you, speaking of likes, we are going to give out Mike McClure's top three at each position and my top three at each position at the end of the show if we get past 100 likes. Last Thursday, we did the same thing. We sailed past 100, thanks to everybody participating in the chat. So those of you that are in the chat, make sure you hit that like button. And when you see new people come into the chat, make sure you encourage them to hit the like button as well so we can get over 100 and give out our top three at each position. But without further ado, Jacob, if you're ready to get started, this is rapid fire, man. Let's start with the one

o'clock games, and then we're going to tackle some's start with the one o'clock games and then we're going to tackle some of these big ticket four o'clock games that I know everybody's going to be interested in. Are you ready to roll? Yeah, let's do it, man. All right. So let's start with the Buccaneers minus eight at the Steelers. This total on Tuesday when we did our early look was 44. It's now 45. I think that's interesting that it's up a scoach, if you will, one point. I don't think this is like, there's going to be a lot of games where when we cover them, we're going to be like, well, this isn't going to be a super popular game. And that's because

a lot of the ownership, Jacob, correct me if I'm wrong, you'd agree with me that people are going to be tackling this Bill's Chiefs game and they're going to be tackling this, secondarily, they're going to be tackling this Seahawks game against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Those are going to be the two main sort of game stacks. Do you agree with that? Yeah, I think so. I think that's where most of the rostered rates can be concentrated is around those two games. I think that gives us some really interesting ways to attack this from a contrarian perspective. Excellent. So I assume what that means is there's some games on this slate that perhaps aren't those two games that you are going to be attacking. Excellent. I love to hear that. There's a couple of games I have in mind too. Now,

just to be clear, that doesn't necessarily mean Jacob's not playing those two games. I mean, so we'll talk about how we can have contrarian stacks and perhaps include some players in those, you know, big ticket games or ways to stack those games as well. So that's going to be really interesting. But Buccaneers and Steelers, anybody you like here, I mean, I think anytime you have the Buccaneers, Tom Brady has been very reasonably priced. And guys like Chris Godwin have been very reasonably priced. Even Mike Evans usually has some value given what his upside is. We have Tom Brady at 6,300, not a big departure from last week, which was 6,000. We have Leonard Fournette,

pretty expensive at 7,400, but we know even when his snaps go down, he's still getting so many high value touches, especially in the receiving game. Mike Evans, 7K, Chris Godwin, 6,100. Is this a game you are interested in stacking or getting a piece of? I don't think I'm going to have much exposure to this game. The Steelers are a tough one because the way to attack this defense, the optimal way to attack this defense has been with perimeter receivers, downfield threats, and we have seen a lot of those types of players find success. But you also often run into the risk of the Steelers not even being competitive

and teams not looking to be aggressive attacking downfield. So the path to like a true ceiling outcome for someone like Mike Evans, who would seem to fit this spot really well, is going to involve, you know, a lot of downfield targets. And I don't know how likely that path is to come to fruition if Pittsburgh can't put points on the board, which I think they're going to really struggle to do against Tampa Bay's defense. So really the player that I will probably have the most exposure to from this game is Tampa Bay's defense. Yeah. Tampa Bay's defense certainly makes a lot of sense. What about Leonard Fournette? He's priced in a way that it's going to be hard to get to him, especially if you're trying to play some of those big ticket guys and some of those big ticket games, namely that Buffalo Kansas City game. We saw what like, and Jacob, you correct me if I'm wrong, but you know, his snap share is going down a little bit, but he's still getting a ton of work, obviously

in the receiving game as well as the rushing game. Is he somebody you would consider perhaps staying on the field, even if it's a positive game script that he just gets the work to get you there? Or is that $7,400 price tag just too much? There's just such great value at running back this week that I don't, I think opportunity cost is going to keep me from going to Fortinet very much, even though he kind of makes sense as a hypothetical tournament play. I think Tim Bay is becoming more comfortable with Rashad White and in a game that's likely to get out of hand that Fortinet might not be out there as much like we've seen in recent weeks. I also think that his targets last week were sort of due to the matchup, his own heavy matchup there. And then they're facing a Pittsburgh team that plays a lot of

man coverage and that leads to fewer running back targets. So I don't have a whole lot of interest in Fournette this week. Yeah, I agree. I mean, I think this is a game I probably won't have any players on. I think you could consider Chris Godwin just because of the price. But I think Jacob's right. You're not getting a back and forth in this game. If you do, it'll be an unbelievable surprise. Side note, Pittsburgh has two passing touchdowns on this entire year. So I think it's just going to be really tough for them,

even in a negative game script, to have any sort of back and forth whatsoever. So let's move on to the Giants at the Ravens. Now this is a five and a half point spread on Tuesday when we did our early look, it was a five point spread. So some money coming in on the Ravens. This is another game that has a 45 point total, just like that Buccaneers game. I should mention that the Buccaneers, their implied total is pretty high just for whatever that's worth. It's 26.5 points. And I say that because Baltimore's implied total is 25.25 points. Now, Jacob, this is not a game that I'm really going to be interested in. I have considered, and I haven't ruled out, a Lamar naked play here.

Without Mark Andrews and a Lamar naked play and then going to another game, like no run back on the Giants side, or a stack with Lamar and Saquon on the other side. That would truly really just that would be to get different and to just capture some of Lamar's upside that we know week to week he can absolutely explode. I expect him to have a lot of rushing attempts in this game. I don't expect much resistance from the Giants defense. I also expect Saquon Barkley to have some room in this game against the Baltimore defense. With that said, are you into any of these guys, whether it's Lamar or Saquon Barkley or maybe Mark Andrews?

Yeah, I think there's actually some really intriguing ways to attack this game. I think Wanda Robinson suits up. He is someone that's going to bring a lot of tournament appeal at his price tag. We don't know what the snaps will be like. So he's probably a little bit too risky for cash, but man, he's really, really cheap. He's somebody who drew targets at a massive rate in college, and he's walking into a situation where there's no one, there's no established target jar in this offense other than Saquon Barkley. And they're likely to be losing. And Baltimore has struggled against receivers, so they're a little bit banged up. So I think on paper, it's a great spot for him if he's going to be out there for 60, 70 plus in the snaps. Um, and he's super,

super cheap on the Baltimore side of things. I really like to attack this giants defense, especially in tournaments. Um, the giants are one of the most, probably the most aggressive defense in the whole NFL. Uh, they blitz a ton and they play a ton of man coverage. They're top two in both blitz rate and man coverage rate um those are both really good things for mark andrews um let me find it real quick so when blitz mark andrews has been targeted on 39 of his routes which ties cd lamb for the highest rate in the nfl of any player when facing man coverage he's been targeted on 38 of his route only dk meccaf has a higher rate so on paper this is really a great spot for mark andrews and i think his rostered rates can be pretty low because people are going to be on Travis Kelsey and that, you know, spot against Buffalo. So I really like the tournament appeal for Andrews here. And of course,

you know, stacking up Lamar, there's tons of upside there. So if you stack it up with Lamar in this game for a tournament, do you have a run back? Does Saquon become too expensive with that stack? Does it become like a Wanda Robinson stack or do you play both of them potentially in a run back you could play both and I like Saquon too I think he's somebody who will go a little bit overlooked because there is so much value the running back position um and there are a lot of expensive receivers that people like are going to want to pay up for Stefan Diggs and you know Kelsey and if people are spinning up at these other positions and saving at running back I think we're going to see just uh paying up at running

back be a little bit more of a contrarian build this week um so yeah you already have a bit of contrarian build by using andrews and uh and lamar and then you bring it back with saquon and if this game does turn into a shootout then like you're one of the few you know in the whole tournament that's going to benefit from it yeah absolutely and again no matter the game on the slate like if you you really love that Buffalo, Kansas City game, totally get it. I'm going to be playing some of that, too. But the idea that Lamar Jackson doesn't have the upside of really any quarterback or any game on the slate is kind of ridiculous. So I understand, obviously, it's a smaller implied total. It's a way smaller total. It's, you know's 45 versus 54. But again, it's one of those things where if Lamar goes off, then he probably surpasses the guys that a lot of people are really interested in.

So it's definitely a really smart contrarian play to get a hold of Lamar Jackson when his ownership is probably going to be lower than it should be. Jets and the Packers. We have a seven and a half point spread. That's the Packers being favored by seven and a half, of course. That was a seven point spread. So money coming in on the Packers, which, Jacob, that surprises me a little bit. I thought seven was already pretty high. I understand Green Bay's at home and it's potentially a get right spot. But before we get into this game, I don't know how much you do against the spread.

But are you surprised this line is going the other direction? In other words instead of from seven to maybe six and a half we're at least staying at seven that that it's up to seven and a half now it does surprise me a little bit the jets you know looked good last week and i think that uh people are you know a little bit more optimistic about them than usual and uh green bay on the other hand has not looked good um so that does surprise me a little bit to see that yeah with that said i mean one of the reasons i do like the Jets in this game to cover the spread, and it's not like an official play for me necessarily, but, you know, the Packers are allowing a lot through the ground. And I think Brees Hall, that makes Brees Hall a very interesting play in this game.

For the record, if you are watching us on YouTube, we have Zach with the games up here, all the prices. We see Brees Hall here at $5,800. We see Aaron Jones at 7,600. I think Aaron Jones is likely to end up being a contrarian play. I did like how he had over 70% of the backfield touches last week. So I think that trend,

especially with what now is not must-win territory, but certainly they're going to try to put a W on the board here, maybe more than they did last week in the sense that they feel a little bit of desperation. And I think Aaron Jones is clearly the best running back in that backfield, both in the receiving and the running game. I am somewhat interested in Aaron Jones. I don't know if I'm going to get there.

Brees Hall does have my interest at 5,800. Do either of those guys have your interest, Jacob? And if not, anybody else on either of these teams? Yeah, I like both these guys. The usage for Brees Hall lately has been terrific. Um, he's really exciting and he's got a matchup that he could definitely exploit here. Green Bay's struggling against the run. Um, and I think he, he falls in that price range with their Mondry Stevenson. Um, and some of the other guys we're going to get to later, um, that might cause him to go a little bit overlooked. Um, I, I don't know, I'm not sure how much exposure I'm going to have to him in tournaments. Cause I wonder what the

upside ultimately is like, can he really get a 30 plus point game without getting the a hundred yard receiving bonus, which is really unlikely. Um, I don't know if the jets are going to score much more than 20, 25 points in this game. Um, seems like about the ceiling for them. So, um, I don't know if he's going to end up being one of my favorite running back tournament plays but i do think there's some interest there for sure um aaron jones is an awesome play i think he's one of the best tournament plays on the slate and he's really underpriced on fan really the packers as a whole are way way too cheap on fan duel um and i don't think that he's going to be super popular over there even with that price tag just because like we've talked about people are going to be paying down at running back um so definitely i think

aaron jones is maybe my favorite favorite RB to pay up for in tournaments this week. Now, does that include DraftKings or was it just because of the pricing in FanDuel? I like him more on FanDuel, but I think on DraftKings, you're going to get him at even lower roster grade. I think you might get him at sub 5% on DraftKings, which makes him, you know, just as strong of a tournament player over there. Absolutely.

All right. Yeah. I mean, I'll tell you, I don't know if I'm going to get to Aaron Jones. I do like the Aaron Jones play. I love the value on Brees Hall. Just like Jacob said, Packers allowing over five yards per carry on the ground. And in Brees Hall, you know,

he only had two targets last week, but Zach had this game log pulled up. He caught both of them, by the way, and we know that was for 100 yards. Kind of fluky in terms of the yardage, but I think more importantly, if you look at what happened the game before that and the game before that six targets he only caught two the game before that 11 targets where he caught six so if we're getting a guy who is going to

average somewhere between five and six targets per game which you know we'll have to wait and see on on a bigger sample size but he could absolutely run the ball very effectively but then even in a neutral or negative game script, get some catching more too. We know Michael Carter is kind of that guy, but it looks like Brees Hall might be taking over in both departments just because he's the more talented back at the end of the day. So something to consider with Brees Hall is that the target share and the targets last week, while he did a ton with them, I expect him to have more targets, just like he did at Pittsburgh and at home

against Cincinnati. He's been targeted at a higher per route rate than any running back in the NFL. And he's starting to get the routes. Last week, he took the third down roll from Michael Carter. We've seen over the past two weeks, his route involvement rate has been up around 50, 60%. And if that's sustainable, the target per route run rate suggests, like you said, that he's going to see a lot more than two targets on most weeks. And the way we're describing this guy, that's why I think he's so valuable, especially if the ownership isn't super high. Although I think he's going to end up, I don't know if you're looking at ownership right now, Jacob, but I think he's going to end up being somewhat popular. But this is a guy that should probably be priced like

$6,400, $6,500. I mean, there's a lot of good value running backs. Jacob already mentioned Ramondre Stevenson. This is another really good value running back in my opinion. Would you expect him to be rostered at a higher rate than Kenneth Walker or Eno Benjamin if he's starting? I would expect both of them to be higher, right? I agree with you a hundred percent. Yeah. I think we might get him a lot lower than he should be in terms of ownership. Speaking of low roster ship, we are going to transition to this Niners at Atlanta Falcons game. It's a 44 and a half point total.

The Niners are favored by five and a half. Now I do want to mention that I just have a lot of defensive injuries. So it's something both in the secondary Mosley is out for the year. They've got injuries really at all phases. It doesn't look like both is going to play in the interior of that line. They have some injuries with Kinlaw and Armstead, and we'll have to wait and see on them. With all of that said, I just don't know who on the Atlanta side is going to be able to expose a defense that is already very good, mind you.

But with some injuries, I'm not interested in anybody on the Atlanta side. As far as the San Francisco side, as much as I like Jeff Wilson, we have to concede a couple of things here, right, Jacob? Tevin Coleman did get some work last week. And I just don't know if this is at 6,200, if this is the price where we're seeing the value that we saw with Jeff Wilson when he was, for example, 5,500. We have so many other value running backs. I don't even necessarily want to make a contrarian play on Jeff Wilson if his ownership isn't high. Is there anybody in this game you like? No, not really. I think on FanDuel, you could give George Kittle a look if you want to get

off the higher end tight ends. He's cheap. He's 5,700 over there. And Atlanta plays a ton of cover too, which leads to shorter targets and tight end targets. But yeah, no Jeff Wilson. Ty Davis Price is back practicing. We sawvin coleman getting involved last week and nothing from the atlanta side it's so gross their offense right now i think i i tweeted out the like highest off target rates in terms of like which wide receivers and tight ends have had the most targets that have not even been catchable and like two of the top five are Falcons. Like Kyle Pitts is number one, Drake London's fourth or fifth. It's just atrocious.

Can I ask you something? Because you were, for the fans of this show, they know that you were on this show in our off season series, talking about a lot of the rookies. We talked about the receivers, the quarterbacks, the running backs,

and it was a really great show. You do so much amazing work on Sportsline. Anybody who's not already a member of Sportsline, please go there and join it. It is, it. It's practically free. Honestly, it's such an amazing product. And I know, Jacob, you have a ton of stuff on there. But you bring up Mariota, and this is a little off topic. But in terms of the quarterbacks that were drafted this year, where did you have Desmond Ritter as it relates to some of the other quarterbacks that were drafted i am cautiously optimistic about ritter i think that he could present an

upgrade over mariotta um i would also say that like my ability to evaluate these rookies i think quarterback is by far my weakest um i think there's a lot more that has to do with competition uh that just isn't very quantifiable when looking at analytics at the quarterback position compared to some of the other ones. So I don't feel super confident that I know what to expect from Ritter, but he looked pretty good in the preseason. And everything that I found was pretty encouraging. I don't think his rushing numbers will translate quite as well as they did at the college level. But in terms of just his ability to help facilitate the offense here for these talented pass catchers, I think he could be an upgrade over Mariota for sure. So before we move to the Vikings at the Dolphins, I do have to ask, remind me, you actually,

and I ask you this selfishly because I'm a Commanders fan and they play in a couple hours on Thursday night football at the Chicago Bears, but you were kind of a fan of Sam Howell, correct? Mm-hmm. Okay. Well, all right. I think it might be Sam Howell season before people,

of course, Taylor Heineke is next in line, but I think Sam Howell might be the starting quarterback for Washington next year. I mostly think he's exciting for fantasy purposes. I think he has the ability to run around like a madman. And we saw that in his last year at North Carolina and he'll push the ball downfield and he has the weapons to be successful. So I think for fantasy, he definitely could be. Well, reading between the lines, Jacob, what it sounds like you're saying is that Washington is Super Bowl bound next year with Sam Howell at the helm. That's how I interpreted that statement from you. Okay, so Minnesota at the Miami Dolphins. Speaking of teams that at least thought they were Super Bowl bound, the Miami Dolphins certainly look legit on the front end of the season.

And unfortunately, when you lose your quarterback and then you kind of lose your backup quarterback, although I'm not exactly sure what's going on with the Teddy two glove situation. Now the Miami dolphins are kind of scratching and clawing it and trying to make sure they secure a playoff berth. It's a 45 and a half point total. Minnesota walks into Miami in the heat and they're a three and a half point favorite. You know, this is one of those games. So, okay. My two favorite games, of course, are Buffalo, Kansas City and Seattle, Arizona. I like that Lamar, like the Giants-Ravens game as maybe a contrarian stack. But one of my, I think, sneakiest contrarian stacks actually might involve this game. And it's on the Kirk Cousins side.

And it's just because the Dolphins secondary remains so banged up and remains so exposable. And I just wonder, you know, listen, it's Kirk Cousins. He's not going to get you the rushing yards. But I just wonder if this is one of those Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson games where we see, you know, 160 yards and two touchdowns from Justin Jefferson. And we see three touchdown passes from Kirk Cousins. Am I completely out of my mind? No, I definitely think that it could be one of those games the Dolphins defense has struggled they're dead last and past defense DVOA like you mentioned there's a lot of injuries going

on there they're not getting pressure this is a team that in the past has blitzed at a league high rate and they've dropped that a little bit they're still in the top third but they're not blitzing quite as much and they're um i think that they are 30th yeah 30th in pressure rate on the year and that's a problem um and if you give cousins time he's going to find justin jefferson against a defense that's playing a ton of man coverage uh they're one of four defenses that use man coverage over 40 of the time and you just can't cover justin jefferson you should not ask backup defensive backs to try to cover justin jefferson in single man that's ridiculous.

But that's what's going to happen this weekend. And we've seen Jefferson get fed. He had that quiet game two or three weeks ago. And since then, he's had over 300 yards receiving the past two games, 13 targets. And now he gets a spot where he could absolutely feast if the game is even a little bit competitive. If we can keep it where Minnesota has to keep the foot on the gas pedal even a little bit, like Jefferson could go nuclear here. Easily the path of least resistance against the Stephens is through the air.

So it could be Jefferson. It could be Thielen too. He's played well against man coverage and is really underpriced and could bounce back here. So I like where your head's at here with the Minnesota side of things. And honestly, I have some interest in bringing it back with the Miami guys. I want to hear what you think about that before I go in detail. Do you have any interest in. I was going to ask you because, okay, so first of all, we have Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddell that are on the right

side of questionable. I'm pretty sure they're going to play. So assuming a full bill of health, which of course we don't necessarily know positively until 1130 Eastern Standard Time, an hour and a half before the game on Sunday. But it looks like those guys are good to go. The runback for me, I don't think I'm interested in Raheem Mostert, even though it will be likely to be a competitive game and the running game could get going on the Miami side with the Minnesota passing game going on the Kirk Cousins side. But it's probably Jalen Waddle for me on the run back just because I'm saving so much money off of Tyreek Hill I think you could skinny stack Justin

Jefferson with with Jalen Waddle I think if you really wanted to be daring in a big tournament I think Cousins to Jefferson with a with a Waddle run back is certainly feasible it's just it it's hard it's it's hard to justify Cousins when you have some of these other guys on the slate. You know you're getting different there. And Jacob, like I said, this is a game where Cousins could just have a game. This is a game where it's like, oh, wow, okay. This was the Cousins blow-up spot. We should have seen it coming.

Anyway, what are your thoughts? Yeah, so the Vikings use cover six 30% of the time. No other team even uses it more than 20 of the time and cover six is the one zone defense the teams throw deep against and we've seen that miami has used jaylen waddle downfield he actually has a higher average depth of target and average route depth than tyree kill this year which has really been a surprise but that's the role we've seen jaylen waddle and like you mentioned he's way way way too cheap on draft kings and so he gets his matchup against his own defense that has been susceptible to the deep ball this year and last year um and then also on top of that he's been

really good against cover six and against cover four which is the other coverage scheme the minnesota uses they use cover four and cover six over 50 of the time the league average is 22 so it's a really unusual defense in the way that they approach things schematically and jaylen waddle is third among qualified receivers among 84 receivers and target per run rate against cover four and cover six since the start of 2021. He's been targeted on 30% of his routes against those schemes. So I have no idea if Skylar Thompson is going to be able to facilitate any sort of production here on the Miami side of things. But if you want to play Justin Jefferson or Kirk Cousins, if you want to make a bet that those guys are going to have a ceiling performance, it kind of necessitates some sort of production on the Miami

side of things to keep things close. So you might as well place a bet on Jalen Waddle too, right? Or Tyreek Hill. I think Waddle's a better play, but like, I think it makes sense to bring it back with those guys. Absolutely. All right. So this is a, this is a contrarian stack that you're interested in. It sounds like, Jacob. Yeah, for sure. I'm going to have a lot of water this weekend. And the reason I'm kind of like bold facing the whole contrarian stack portion of this show is because when you go to an 11-game slate and you see only two games that have totals of over 50 points, and they happen to, like, it's very sexy. Like it's very like Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Gino Smith, Tyler Lockett, like the prices are right too on some of these guys. And then of course the Buffalo game with Josh Allen and Diggs and what we saw from Gabriel Davis, we'll get to

those games in a second. But I just think, you know, if you're going to make several lineups, I think you should make room for some of these contrarian lineups too, because you don't want to be, you don't want to have to rely on, well, I'm on this stack, but at least I got a little bit different here. Like that's great to make your stack different. But if you make the entire game different, that's when you know you have leverage on the field. So it's just something to consider. Okay. So Jacob, we're going to get some bangles minus two at the Saints, 43point total. But before we do that, we're going to take a break, and we're going to hear a word from our partners.

And we are back. I'm with Jacob Gibbs. Jacob, thank you so much for coming on to the show. Can you remind everybody where they can find your work? Yeah, check out everything we're doing over on Sportsline. I've got DFS helper values, stacks, everything that we're talking about today. I cover in more detail on sports line um i also just put out an article this week that's a mid-season check-in on red zone data i'm just going through every team and looking at which team has been lucky or unlucky with scoring um some regression candidates to you know buy for

fantasy or target for dfs purposes and then you can follow me on twitter at j gibbs underscore two three uh try to tweet out as much relevant information as I can each week leading up and help you with DFS decisions. Sounds good. And I know you tweet out a lot of like really, really great stuff. So please, everybody, if you're not already following him, shame on you. But it's JA Gibbs underscore 23. And for those of you watching, please hit that like button.

We're not going to give out our top three at each position or I'm going to give out mine and Mike's Mike McClure, unless we get to over 100 likes. So everybody listening, make sure you hit that like button. And so we can give out those plays. Okay, so Bengals minus two at the Saints. It's 43 point total. You know, you talked about injuries earlier in the show and how we might need some injury clarity from some of these games. I think this is one of those games. Unless I missed something in the last 30 minutes, we still don't know about T. Higgins' status. I mean, I think he's going to play, but how healthy is the guy? We saw what happened last week with him. Michael Thomas, Chris Olave coming off what looked like a

pretty bad concussion. Props to him for hanging on to that touchdown catch. Jarvis Landry, Marshawn Lattimore. I thinkry Marshawn Lattimore I think the Marshawn Lattimore injury is really really key because if he's not playing and especially if T Higgins is actually in the game and can command some attention I think it could be a great spot to play Jamar Chase what say you uh yeah I think you're right with Chase I'm a little bit concerned about um the way that they're using them. They're just not his, that his route tree has been shortened significantly compared to what we've seen previously. And there are so many, um, really, you know, really

intriguing tournament plays specifically at wide receiver this week, because of what we talked about, all the ownership is going to be concentrated on, you know, the Seattle receivers, Marquise Brown and that you know same game and then also stefan diggs um i don't know if i'm gonna have a ton of chase what i will say is if t higgins plays and especially if marshawn latimore is out i think t higgins in this spot is like one of the best tournament plays we're gonna get a wide receiver all year um because like even if he plays even if we have clarity going into the weekend that he's gonna play what do you think his roster rate's going to be on this slate?

Nothing. People are going to be terrified to play him after last week, right? That's right. And I think that this is a great spot. Even if Lattimore plays, but especially if Lattimore is out, the Saints have really, really struggled to get to the quarterback this year. And obviously that has been a problem for Cincinnati is protecting Joe Burrow um and so the Saints have previously been one of the best teams getting the quarterback this year they are in the bottom third and pressure rate they've their average um

average time to throw for opposing quarterbacks is 2.8 seconds and I just wrote about this in you know schematic matchups on Sportsline you can find this Higgins, when Joe Burrow has had time to throw, is like by far the top target. It's his target per run rate when Joe has had 2.8 seconds is 35%. It's the highest in the NFL. Jamar Chase's is 20. Tyler Boyd's is 17. Like he's the guy that Burrow is looking for when they have time for those downfield routes to develop. He's locking in on T. Higgins.

Yard per run, 4.3. Jamar Chase's's 2.3 and this is not on a small sample size this is 250 drop back since the start of 2021 um so like if there's time to throw and especially if latimore is not out there i think t higgins is the guy he's going to be looking for we've seen like we talked about jamar chase's rat tree has been shortened a lot and like no one's going to play him so we're talking about a guy that has really high upside. If he connects on these downfield routes and is going to have no ownership and his price is down, like it's everything you want in tournament play. That's a great point. Let me ask you this.

If T. Higgins appears to be hobbled going into the game or if he just flat out doesn't play, does Hayden Hurst become at 3,300 on DraftKings? Does he become a nice little value play to pick up some targets, or are you just avoiding that altogether? I think if Higgins is hobbled or out, I'm probably just going to avoid the game altogether. This St. Stephen's still isn't one that you necessarily want to go out of your way to attack unless you feel like you really have a specific angle that lines up well here, like we do with T. Higgins.

And on the other side of the ball, the only guy I'm interested in, especially with the litany of injuries at the receiver position, might be Alvin Kamara at 6,700 on DraftKings. Obviously, there's an elephant in the room there. That's Taysom Hill. I don't expect Taysom Hill to get every single rushing touchdown for the Saints the rest of the season, obviously. So I think there's some regression positively coming for Alvin Kamara. We know he's getting, when Andy Dalton is the quarterback, we know he's going to be getting some of the dump offs, any interest there that he might get loose against this defense and pay off his price tag. And then some,

I think he makes some sense hypothetically, but like you said, you worry about touchdown upside. And this, you know, is not a defense that you necessarily want to target running backs against. I think if I was targeting a Saint, it would be Chris Alave. I think if he's healthy, anytime you can get Alave when he's not going to be rostered at a high rate, he's in an interesting tournament play. The routes that he's running and the targets that he's drawing gives him a unique upside to the wide receiver position.

I think, honestly, you can make a case that Alave brings a higher raw ceiling than any wide receiver on any given week, which sounds ridiculous for a player that's sub 6k but he has 744 air yards this year and the next highest is 568 like he's lapping the field and if he connects on these deep balls like he has potential to go we haven't even seen a ceiling game from a lot but we haven't even seen him that's right put together like big yardage and touchdowns in the same game and if that happens he's gonna go for like 40 plus points you'd agree that the ceiling game is probably going to be with jamis winston though right not that he can't have an amazing game with andy dalton but like that that's right right like

it's got jamis ultimately i think you have a better chance of hitting with jamis i will say that dalton has looked better than i expected And he's also been more aggressive in attacking downfield than we've seen previously, like with Chicago. So I think it's still possible, but I do think your chances of hitting on a ceiling game are higher with Winston. Yeah. All right. So let's go to the New England Patriots at the Cleveland Browns. The Cleveland Browns are at home favored by two and a half points. It's a 43 and a half point total. So this is, you know, obviously one of the lower totals of the slate. There's two guys I'm interested in

and they're the obvious ones. Let me just get the obvious one out of the way. I mean, Ramondre Stevenson, Jacob, he's probably going to be the highest rostered player on the slate. Is that right? I would expect so. This is way too cheap for him.

He's 7,400 on FanDuel for some, you know, players in there. 6K is way too cheap for him. He's 7,400 on FanDuel for some, you know, compares in there. 6K is way too cheap for him in a role where he could play 70, 80% of the snaps. Exactly. Yeah, we don't need to belabor that point. He is going to be the guy. He's going to get plenty of passing work,

but certainly going to be the bell cow with the rushing attempts. On the other side of the ball, okay, by the way, Jacoby Myers at 5,300. I want to get your opinion on him, but I also want to get your opinion on Nick Chubb. Listen, we can't just tout every single great guy on every team, right? Like as much as I love Nick Chubb at 8,200 and I know the Cleveland will be able to run the ball against New England as well and he will have low ownership.

I just don't know. Like you're going to have to avoid a lot of things to play Nick Chubb at 8,200. I love the guy though. He is absolutely killing, crushing his props the last two games. He's been at 90 and a half rushing yards and 92 and a half, and he is sailing over a hundred almost, like literally he sailed well over a hundred every single game of the season, except for one where I think he got up to 87 yards I I love Nick Chubb but I just don't know if I'm going to get there unless you convince me I worry a bit about the game total I it's it was really kind of surprisingly low um but I do think like Chubb is going to be overlooked um especially at the price tag and like we've talked about people paying down a running back um and the way to attack this Patriots defense is on the ground their eighth and past defense to be away they're 28th against

the run they're 22nd in adjusted defensive line yards um and we've seen Chubb run all over you know much better run defenses than this um so yeah if you know if Bailey Zappi isn't as good as we've seen and Patriots struggle to move the ball and the Browns get up early they could just keep running and keep running and keep running. And it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a big chump game. Anybody else in this game that intrigues you? Zach, if you could pull up Jacoby Myers' game log, that would be helpful. Is Jacoby Myers at 5,300 a guy you would consider even with the issues at quarterback? I mean, I'm not expecting Mac Jones to play, but I guess the jury is still out on that, right? It could be Bailey Zappi. It could be Mac Jones at this point.

Yeah. I would be surprised if Mac Jones plays. I love Jacoby. Um, we, we saw him come back and immediately just like completely dominate the volume, uh, for new England last week, Taekwon Thornton returned. And we saw as a result that like Devante Park was pretty much completely phased out. Um, Nelson Aguilar snaps dropped off as well jacoby wasn't affected at all he ran around in almost every single drop back um his underlying volume rates were spectacular and he actually found the end zone for once and it's like whoa when he is able to score a touchdown he's a really freaking good fantasy receiver because the catches and yardage are going to be there um i don't like the matchup very much cleveland plays a ton of zone. They really don't use man cover Charlie at all. And Jacoby has been much better against man than zone

throughout his career. So I think it's just kind of a thin play on a, on a slate where we have a ton of wide receivers. Fair enough. Speaking of thin plays, we've got the Jaguars at the Colts, and I don't think this is a game we need to spend a ton of time on. Jaguars are plus two, two point underdogs at the Colts, it's a 42-point total. I'm just going to be real quick with this one. I'm not interested in any of this. I mean, I like the fact that Travis Etienne, the snap share and the usage is starting to go up, and 5K does seem like a nice price, but I just don't know that I want to play that game with him and James Robinson this week at Indianapolis with only a 20-point implied total.

Not interested in any of the receivers in this game, not Michael Pittman, not Alec Pierce, even at 4,300, although I get the Alec Pierce move, Jacob. Anybody, and we don't know if JT is playing. If he is, he's probably going to be a little hobbled. Is there anybody that intrigues you in this game? Yeah, real quick on the last game and then in this game as well, basically exact price range of mario cooper 5900 and christian kirk 5800 if you're running out 150 lineups this weekend i would just throw those two into the simulator for you because i think that they do bring some tournament appeal they both have specific matchups schematic matchups here that fit really well with the type of routes they like to run um and they bring upside you know like they have the potential to get targeted at true wide receiver one potential on a week-to-week basis.

We've seen some inconsistency there. But like with Kirk specifically, there's the narrative squeaky wheel that they're going to get him more targets after last week. So I think those are interesting if you're an MME player, but really not guys I'll have a lot of exposure to now. Absolutely. All right. And in this Jonathan Taylor-led, potentially Colts game at home, anybody that interests you? No, nobody from the Colts side of things. Yeah. So I mean, I'm just not interested. We can just move on. We've got three games to talk about, two of which are going to be really high-end. By the way, I can see there's a lot of you watching right now, which is great. But clearly not all of you have hit the like button.

I mean, it's just simple math right there. So if you're watching on whatever platform, literally just hit the like button. If for some reason you can't see it, all you have to do is hit the button to pull the chat down, then hit the like button and then put the chat back up. It's super, super easy. So if you can't see it readily, like right away, pull the chat down and you'll be able to see the like button, but everybody, please hit that like button. Okay. So let's move on to some of the main courses here. Although we'll have to get through one of these other games. First, the Panthers are 10 and a half

point dogs at the Rams. It's a 41 point total. I'm not interested in anything in this game. PJ Walker is going to be leading the Panthers. I don't think I'm interested in paying up for Cooper Cup. I understand it's always risky not to play Cooper Cup, but on this slate, I'm just not interested. Even as a contrarian move, I would rather play a different contrarian receiver that we already talked about,

whether it's Jamar Chase or T. Higgins or Justin Jefferson, who probably isn't going to get a ton of ownership. There's just nothing I like here. Anything you like here? If you're just the DJ more truther and you just can't quit the guy, he's really cheap. He gets a quarterback who has targeted him at a high rate in the past,

and he's facing a defense that has struggled against wide receiver ones and plays coverage schemes that he's performed well against in the past. But no, probably shouldn't play anyone from this game. And Tyler Higby. I mean, it's, it's still a pretty reasonable price at 4,600. We know he's going to get the targets. You know, I think the ceiling isn't super high, especially in a 41 and a half point total. With that said, is Higby somebody that you'd be considering or you would just rather pivot to another tight end in a similar price range? Yeah,'t think i'll have any higby i'm mostly paying up a tight end and if not it'll be like i mean zacherts is only 300 more right exactly and speaking of

zacherts let's just move to the cardinals minus two and a half at the seahawks it's a 50 and a half point total as of now i wouldn't shock me if that ticks back up to 51. I think that might be where it opened. I don't know how Seattle stops Arizona. And based on the efficiency that we've seen with Geno Smith and the concentration of targets to mainly Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, I don't see how you get around stacking this game, having some ownership of this game. Am I wrong there? I mean, is this a game that you would advise somebody like just get some pieces of this? Or are you, Jacob, such the contrarian player that you're just like not interested in going where some of the people are going to go? No, I'm definitely going to have pieces of this

game. Do you think that like overall this game is going to garner more attention than the Buffalo-Kansas City game? Because I wouldn't have expected so, but the prices are lower. Yeah, I don't think so. So here's the problem. The reason why it might is because it's very easy to pick who to stack Cardinals and Seahawks with. You know with Geno Smith, you're going to stack him with a very reasonably priced Tyler Lockett on DraftKings and DK Metcalf as a slightly contrarian play off of Tyler Lockett. And then on the other side of the ball, you know who the pass catchers are.

It's Rondale Moore at the low end. It's Zach Ertz at the medium end. And it's, of course, Marquise Brown at the top end. With Pat Mahomes in that Buffalo-Kansas City game, it's kind of hard. Obviously, you can stack them with Kelsey, but in terms of secondary options, you know, I don't like it's obviously, I guess it's MVS is next in line on the other side of the ball. I think people will have a hard time deciding between Josh Allen and step on digs or Gabriel Davis or Isaiah McKenzie,

or even Devin Singletary who gets a lot of passing work and neutral game scripts. I just think it's easier from both a price and just figuring out where the shares are going in that, in that quote lesser game. But I think ultimately people will not be able to resist this Buffalo Kansas city game. So it should have slightly higher ownership. Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah. I'm, I'm definitely interested in this one. If, if you guys do check out my Twitter you'll see um that my pinned tweet is a thread where i just go through and detail every single coverage scheme and just kind of give you a better understanding of how they affect things for fantasy um and i want to focus on

seattle here seattle uses a ton of cover six they're second to minnesota like we talked about earlier um and they use a ton of cover three. And so what we know about those two things, if you look at that Twitter thread, you find the takeaways, cover six teams throw deep against cover six, cover three top targets get fed against cover three. And so both of those things seem like intuitive fits for Marquise Brown, right? And then when you look at Marquise Brown splits, he's been much better against these schemes. And so it all adds up. And then if you go look at Kyler Murray splits, he's been much better against these schemes. And so it all adds up. And then if you go look at Kyler Murray splits, he's been much better against these schemes.

Kyler has been significantly better against zone than man throughout his career. The only specific coverage scheme that he's really struggled against is cover two and Seattle does not use it very often. So I feel pretty good. I'd never want to trust Arizona. They haven't scored a first quarter point. I think that their coaching makes some really asinine decisions.

But like schematically, the fit is definitely there for Kyler and for Marquise Brown. And then Rondell Moore is just way too cheap for the role that he's playing. Yeah. So what about the other side of the ball? Cause I know Arizona throws a lot of blitzes as well. And Gino's very good against the blitz. And he's just been very good in general. The discount with Gino Smith is pretty real as it relates to Kyler Murray. I mean, 7,300 versus 5,700. That's a huge difference in a slate like this where you're trying to get some high profile players in high profile games. Gino Smith to Tyler Lockett and maybe a double stack

to DK Metcalf, or maybe you just try to get all the points and you take one of those receivers out and you put in Ken Walker, and then you run it back with Rondell Moore, who's so cheap, and one of those pass catchers, likely Marquise Brown. I like that side of the stack as well because of the savings. I mean, like Tyler Lockett compared to Marquise Brown, it's night and day. I think it's 5,600. His price didn't go up for some reason, Lockett on DraftKings, and Marquise Brown, I believe is 7,200. So how do you feel about the it's night and day i think it's 5600 his price didn't go up for some reason lock it on draft kings and marcus brown i believe is 7200 so how do you feel about the other side of that stack the seattle side i think kenneth walker is really interesting both him and eno benjamin are way too cheap um for the roles that they're expected to play um and we've seen some you know some

indication that ken walker could play on passing downs at least until travis homer returns um and so if he does get that role right away he's like two or three thousand dollars too cheap um and it's a pretty good matchup um in terms of seattle's passing game it's like you've hit on it it's pretty ridiculous that we can get gino and tyler lockett at these price tags they're way more expensive on fanduel especially lockett he's actually more expensive than dk mechoff on fanduel so like to get him at 5600 on draft kings is kind of a joke um so i think that's where you're starting out and the matchup fits well too um gino's been really good against the blitz and the cardinals blitz one of the highest rates in the nfl um and since the start 2021 when blitz gino has focused more on tyler lockett than dk Metcalf. So those are the guys that I'm starting with.

If I'm just naming a core for this game, it's Geno and Lockett and then Marquise Brown. And would you be willing in this game to stack it even heavier? And if so, who would be one player on each side that you would add to that core stack? Yeah, it would probably be Eno Benjamin would be the next guy um and then if i'm playing um kyler stacks that's where i'm going to try to get more exposure to uh to kenneth walker just assuming they just be more of a game script where seattle is leading and maybe not throwing downfield to lock it as much and we are seeing kyler be more aggressive um so if i'm you know building a kyler rondale marise Brown stack, that's probably going to

have Ken Walker on the other side. Wow. I love it. I absolutely love this game. It was the game when lines first came out and I was prepping for our early look show, Jacob on Tuesday, I was like, I know I'm going to play more of this game than this Buffalo, Kansas city game. I just know it because like the prices seem right. I can just really kind of like over stack this game and just hope to be right on the game and just hope that the pieces I pull from this next game that we're going to talk about are the right pieces. So it's certainly a gamble because this this Bill's Chiefs game. Yeah, I don't know. Bill's favorite by two and a half. It's a 54 point total. I'm not sure, Jacob. My instant reaction to this game is, how do the Chiefs stop the Bills?

In what universe do the Chiefs stop the Bills? And I understand you could make the same claim on the other side. I think the Bills' defense, even as injured as it is, I think is pretty formidable, even against Patrick Mahomes in a receiver core that's still kind of wishy-washy. We're not really sure what they are beyond Travis Kelsey I just don't know how Josh Allen doesn't have a huge game outside of an injury the weather seems to be fine like there's there's nothing really stopping him here am I wrong no you're not this game feels like it shouldn't be on the main slate like and it feels like a spot that you kind of can't miss it like I don't necessarily disagree with you but it just

seems crazy to be like i'm gonna have more exposure to seattle arizona than buffalo kansas city because like the last time we saw these two teams play they went for like 80 points like yeah and what you know kansas city does defensively like is should be conducive to success for somebody like gabe davis and steph diggs Diggs and Josh Allen. I definitely agree with you. This game feels like a can't-miss spot, and it feels like a game you have to get a lot of exposure to. I haven't quite come to terms with where I'm going to land relative to the field on rostering these guys because I want to hedge.

I don't want to be way underweight and just like lose the slate when this goes off. But at the same time, these pieces are expensive. And I don't want to just be building the same lineups that everybody else is building because then if it does go off, what? Like you're splitting, like you have to have the exact right differentiating pieces outside of this game to win. Like, yeah, it's a tough spot. With that said, it does remind me of something. If, if, if those of you that are like having the same struggle that Jacob is in that, I think everybody is, there are different slates you can play. Like, I mean, I think there, there is something to be said for playing the main slate here, but then playing a couple of tournaments in the afternoon slate where you just decide, Hey, I am going to go all in on this Cardinals-Seahawks game. And I'm going to pull Devin Singletary on one side out of the Bills and hope he gets two touchdowns and nine receptions.

And I'm going to pull Travis Kelsey because I know that's where the ball is going. And maybe one other piece and just hope that Mahomes just doesn't completely go off and that Josh Allen only throws for, I don't know, two touchdowns instead of four or five. I mean, those things can absolutely happen. So my point in saying all of that is that there are different slates to play, and you can kind of get different in the afternoon slate and isolate a different game, or on the main slate, and in the afternoon slate, you'll load up on this game.

So just something to consider there. Gabe Davis is really interesting to me, Jacob, because I think everybody knows he's not exactly a target monster, but we know what he can do, particularly against this defense. I mean, last year he caught eight or 10 targets, 201 yards and four touchdowns. I mean, most of that was in that second half in that fourth quarter where he just was wide open every single time and couldn't be stopped. Last week, he caught three or six targets for 171 yards and a couple amazing touchdowns at that.

Is Gabe Davis at 6,500? Is he the guy that you end up playing with, Josh Allen? Or do you go with the targets guy in Stephon Diggs? And I understand Stephon Diggs didn't do great last year in that playoff game from a statistical standpoint. But the Chiefs have not been good against wide receiver ones. And Stephon Diggs is likely to get all those, most of the high value targets, at least relative to all the receivers when they get close to the red zone.

What's saying you on those two guys? And is Isaiah McKenzie in the conversation as a secondary piece for you? No, I don't. I'm not going to have any Isaiah McKenzie. We really haven't seen his route involvement rate as high as it needs to be to justify playing him on a slate with so many appaling receiver plays. I think if you're building cash game lineups, I don't play a ton of cash games anymore, but if you are grinding out cash games, I think Stefan Diggs is the play here. For tournaments, I'm probably going to have more,

I am going to have more exposure to Gabe Davis. The chiefs have the fifth highest opponent passer rating on passes that have traveled 15 or more yards. We've seen them get beat down the field by Devante Adams, by Mike Evans. It's it's happened over and over this year. Mike Williams, like the big play receivers have succeeded against this defense. We saw what Gabe Davis said in the last week.

So yeah, I think he's the guy I'm, I'm fine just taking the savings and hoping that he hits in a couple big plays um and to your point earlier about differentiating where you get exposure to this game i think it also would make sense in addition to like playing different slates um to load up on this game on fandu uh the pricing is softer over there and specifically devin singletary is absurdly cheap over there he's 5700 um and kelsey isn't quite as expensive either relative to the position so devin singletary is 5700 just for reference kenneth walker is 6500 or mandre stevenson is 7400 even eno benjamin who

like is a awesome value on dk is $6,500, I think. $6,300. So all these guys are notably more expensive than Singletary. So if you do want to take just kind of a simpler path to getting exposure to this game and not having to cover all your bases on DK, you could do it by just playing a lot more of them on FanDuel. And Jacob, you may have addressed this, but the secondary piece beyond Travis Kelsey,

who it sounds like you're probably playing this week based on what I've heard so far in this show, is it Marcus Valdez-Scantling? I don't think I'm going to have another chief after Kelsey. I think that they just spread things out so much. It's really unpredictable who it's going to be. You could place a bet on one of them getting two touchdowns, but I just feel better about taking a low- player like T Higgins. I think your probability of,

you know, winning is higher with that type of a bet than betting on Juju Smith Schuster or something. Okay. Uh, any more comments about this game? For example, you mentioned Singletary. I assume there's not a running back on the chief side that you'd be interested in. It sounds to me like Kelsey is the Kansas city piece that you're extrapolating from this game in your stacks, and then you're loading up on that Bills side, at least from a quarterback-receiver stack standpoint. Right, yeah. I'll have Kelsey on Fandu. I think I'll have more exposure to Mark Andrews just because of the way I play. I do play more tournaments, and I think he's going to really be overlooked this week. But yeah, no other Chiefs. All right. Well, we are done with the main rundown,

but we're not done with the show. By the way, everybody, please hit the like button. We've got to give out my top three at each position. This is something new that we're doing, Jacob. And then I have Mike McClure's top three at each position. So we've got even more people watching than we did before when I made this announcement, but everybody hit the like button so we can get to Mike's. Listen, the reality is I'm going to give it to you anyway, but just to hit the like button, just for the heck of it. Just so we can get over a hundred, like we did last time, a hundred likes, that would be great. Everybody in the chat. I hear, I see a lot of redraft questions, which is great. But if anybody has any DFS questions,

go ahead and put them back in the chat and maybe we'll address them. But we also have the cheat sheet. And I don't know, Jacob, have you filled out the cheat sheet already? I think you have. So before we even get your cheat sheet, let me go to the top three at each position. So just to be clear, when I say top three, these are just the top three that top three players that I'm going to be utilizing in my lineup. So I'm not doing a point for dot like point for dollar thing. I'm just, these are the guys that I know I'm going to be using a lot. So I'll go QB running back wide receiver, tight end defense, and then I'll give Mike's top three at each position as well. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith. I think that's pretty clear. I think if we were

talking contrarian quarterbacks, we talked about Lamar Jackson and we talked about Kirk Cousins, at least guys that I like. And I think Jacob agreed. Running back, Ramondre Stevenson probably should be a cash game lock. Benjamin, if he is the starter, which it looks like he's probably going to be, I think he's another cash game lock. And then I kind of have a tie for third place with Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker, depending on what you want to spend there. Wide receiver, Tyler Lockett, another cash game guy for me. Rondale Moore, I'll put him in cash games. And Stefan Diggs, I'm going to choose to pair Josh Allen Moore with Stefan Diggs than I am with Gabriel Davis.

Tight end, Kelsey Ertz. And I did throw in Higby there. I don't love it. I'll probably just be playing a lot of Kelsey and Ertz. Defense, Colts at 3,200. Saints at 2,800. Falcons at 2,500. I'm trying to find cheaper defenses.

So I obviously didn't go with the Buccaneers. But obviously, they are a great play as well. OK, drumroll. Not really. Mike's top three at each position. You know, obviously didn't go with the Buccaneers, but obviously they are a great play as well. Okay. Drum roll. Not really. Mike's top three at each position. He is in Chicago right now. I think he's going to this Washington-Chicago Bears game.

He'll be the one guy that's there. Okay. QB. He's got Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Kyler Murray. That sounds familiar. Running back, Eno Benjamin, Ramondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara. That also sounds familiar, other than that kamara play remember we talked about him maybe sucking up some targets and having some positive touchdown regression as opposed to uh tasem hill getting all of that

wide receiver tyler lockett marcus valdez scamling he had to have a chief in there of course he likes the value clearly there and stefan diggs at tight end mark andrews, Jacob, I know you agree there. Dawson Knox, interesting. And Travis Kelsey, as expected from the Chiefs fan. Defense, Rams, Saints, Panthers. So those are the top three for me, the top three for Mike McClure. And now it's time to get to our cheat sheet. Jacob, you want to start us off? Give me. So for those of you that are new to the show, we actually published this cheat sheet and we put it out for everybody to see on Twitter. It'll probably be on Jacob's Twitter. It'll be on my Twitter at CNajad.

And it'll be on the Fantasy Football Today Twitter account as well. We do a stack. We do a chalk play, a value play, a contrarian play, and a fade. So, Jacob, let's get it started. Yeah, I'm stacking up with kyler and marquise brown we talked about this game a lot i really love the coverage scheme specifically for kyler and marquise brown uh their splits against uh the types of coverage that seattle uses um really lead me to believe that this is gonna be an exciting potential blow up spot for those guys marquise brown lately

has seen insane volume since the week one game after that when kyler said he's gonna get him 10 targets each game he's done that and he's you know tied with cooper cut for the most targets in the nfl since that point uh so at 7200 i'm all in um chalk play is gonna be you know benjamin you know going back to this game um i think there's a lot of different ways to attack this and i think he's just way too cheap um value uh you could go they know but i'm gonna say kenneth walker sticking with this game um way too cheap for all these guys contrarian play mark andrews i think um the top two tight ends in terms of rostered rate are from these you know blow up games we've got travis kelsey and zackerts um and i think mark andrews gonna go really overlooked in a really really

good spot um and then if i'm fading one of the top guys i'm gonna go with stefan diggs which uh you know is not a good feeling because digiggs could definitely blow up against this defense. But he's really expensive, and there are a ton of wide receiver plays that I really, really like this week. And so I'm just, you know, if I'm going to be fading anyone, it's going to be Diggs. I'm just crossing my fingers and hoping that it's a big Gabe Davis week instead. Is there a scenario in this Buffalo-Kansas City game where you play Josh Allen on one side without stacking him and maybe Kelsey on the other side and you call it a day?

You're saying Josh Allen naked, like no other bills? Correct. And it doesn't even have to be with Kelsey necessarily. That was just a correlating thought. But in the event that McKenzie gets one, Singletary gets one,

you know, Stiggs gets one, you know, Gabriel Davis gets one. They have the type of weapons where it could be spread out. And I just wonder, in this game, does it make sense for you to have Josh Allen naked? It's an interesting thought. It's definitely like, we've we've talked about like, if this game blows up, you don't really benefit that much from having exposure to it, because it's going to be so popular. This is one way that you could because this will differentiate you from other josh allen lineups um if other josh allen lineups all have stefan diggs and or gabe davis and neither one of those guys find the end zone

then like your josh allen lineup that doesn't have those guys is going to be an advantage over those ones um it's an interesting thought yeah. Yeah. Just something to consider as you were kind of talking about Stefan Diggs and how expensive he is. I'm just wondering if there's a scenario where Josh Allen gets you there, but none of the other receivers do. So we do have a question from J Metz, which I'm going to get to in a second, but let me give my, before we close this show and before we get to that question, I will give out my cheat sheet. So I have Gino Smith to Tyler Lockett as my stack, just very cost-effective stack, 5,700 to 5,600 DraftKings pricing. Chalk, Ramondre Stevenson at 6,000. We talked about that. Contrarian, Jamar Chase at 7,700. Listen,

I agree with Jacob. If T. Higgins is good to go, I think that's a really interesting contrarian play as well. Nobody's going to play him. My fade is Raheem Mostert and I forgot to put my value play on there. So for now, I guess I will go with, you know, Benjamin, I'll just, I'll take your chalk play and I'll put it at, Oh wait, Rondell Moore. Did I put him? Is he on here? Oh, he is. So I'll just go with the chalk play from Jacob. I think that's tremendous value at 4,600. Maybe I'll change that for the cheat sheet purposes. But I do want to get to this question. Jacob, I'll kick this to you first. Very general beginner question. This is from J-Mets, by the way. If I play a stack with a run back, what should be my strategy for the rest of the roster? Another stack, second or third wide receivers from high scoring games, etc.

What are your thoughts there, Jacob? Yeah, that's an interesting question. I think there's a number of ways that you could approach it. One way is like if like it depends on the stack you're playing. So like if you are stacking with Lamar and mark andrews for example um then you need those players to outscore travis kelsey and josh allen because of the opportunity cost you're not using those guys so you're already making a bet by using mark andrews and lamar jackson that they're going to outproduce those guys and you can double down on it by using

teammates from their teams so in this instance i think devin singletary would correlate really strongly with a lamar and mark andrews stack does that make sense because if he's scoring touchdowns that means that josh allen isn't unless it's a passing touchdown or on the chief side of things if you so mike really likes marcus valdez-scandling if you play marcus valdez-scandling and he scores two touchdowns those are two touchdowns that travis kelsey does not get, which then benefits your Mark Andrews lineup. Does that make sense? A hundred percent. And I think that's a really good way to describe it. And I think just from a general premise, I mean, correlating hasn't worked quite as well

lately as it does normally. But if you're going to do that stack with a run back, then yeah, go find that other high scoring game and try to correlate there. Like last week, my correlation in my cash game, as it turns out, was my secondary correlation was Chris Olave with Tyler Lockett. And we saw how well that worked out. So do your stack. But again, if you're going to do a stack, if you really believe in the game, you can throw extra pieces in there. And there's also games where, like, for example, if you're playing the Buccaneers game this

week, because you want to get different, you want to get away from some of these other games you don't have to force a run back so those are kind of old school rules that aren't always in play you don't want to force drake london back in a buccaneer stack just because you know you feel like that it has to be competitive it has to be a back and forth and therefore drake london is the piece i want so um every sort of slate is different every game game is different, but you're J Mets. You're on the right track with what, what you're talking about. And I love what Jacob is saying. If you're already not playing Josh Allen and Travis Kelsey, then you double down on that by taking guys that aren't people aren't taking that, that you think, well, okay, if Travis Kelsey isn't getting who, who is, is it Marcus Valdez Scantling? If, if Josh Allen isn't getting it,

who, who is? Devin Singletary. So that's a way to get a piece of a game, J-Mets, but not get the piece of the game that everybody else is on. So those are always like really, really good things to consider. You want to enjoy all the points in that game, but it's not always necessarily coming from the most popular guys. Sometimes it comes from the secondary third tier guys.

All right. Uh, Jacob, that's, that's it, man. Uh, I got to thank you again. Thank you so much for coming onto the show. You got anything coming up this weekend? Any, any podcasts, any shows, any written content on sports line that people should look forward to, or did you already put it out? Uh, this is the last show for the week. I will have an article, uh, tomorrow discussing stacks in more detail. So we talked about a lot here, but there are a few that we didn't cover in as much detail that if if you want to read on just kind of different angles for attacking things i'll have a stacking article on sports line i will be reading that everybody check out sports line everybody subscribe to sports line

and make sure you watch the early edge too i'll be on the early edge i'm on um i'll be on tonight actually um for the thursday night football game with with Washington and Chicago. That's 730 tonight. But we also do a 12 o'clock show one hour before the one o'clock games where we just go over every single game. We go over the props we like, the plays we like against the spread, the totals, all that. So if you're not already a subscriber to the early edge on YouTube, please make sure you subscribe to that. We've got so many talented guys on that, including Mike McClure, including prop stars. You name it. they're on there. Larry Harstein, Jonathan Coachman.

It is an unbelievable cast. But, Jacob, thank you so much again for coming on the show. Such great information coming from you. I can't wait to read your article on Sportsline. But for now, my name is Sian Ajad. You'll see me next on Tuesday for our recap and our early look. You'll see Mike McClure next Thursday for our game-by-game preview. Our contest is still live.

Our FFT DFS contest has a few slots left. So if you're listening to my voice right now, go ahead and click the link, which is attached to this podcast or attached to this YouTube page, and you'll be able to enter the contest. It's only $5. Let's fill that up like we always do by Friday afternoon. And thanks everybody for watching. Thanks everybody for listening. This is Fantasy Football Today, DFS. We'll see you on Tuesday.