Fantasy Football Today - NFL DFS Week 8 Lineups, Picks, Stacks & Ownership Projections (Fantasy Football Today DFS Podcast)
Episode Date: October 27, 2022Download and follow Fantasy Football Today DFS! You can find FFT DFS on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever else podcasts are found. Join our $5 Week 8 DFS contest over on Draftkings-https://www.dra...ftkings.com/draft/contest/135059550 Sia Nejad and Mike McClure are previewing the NFL DFS Week 8 main slate. They run through each game, offering their favorite stacks and plays, also letting you know which players to avoid. (0:40)- Ja'Marr Chase out 4-6 weeks (3:00)- Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs (5:53)- ARI at MIN (11:54)- CAR at ATL (14:14)- MIA at DET (19:55)- PIT at PHI (24:55)- LV at NO (30:33)- CHI at DAL (33:55)- NE at NYJ (37:00)- TEN at HOU (41:33)- NYG at SEA (47:13)- WAS at IND (53:33)- SF at LAR (58:10)- Week 8 Cheat Sheet (1:01:30)- Mike’s Top-3 plays 'Fantasy Football Today DFS' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT DFS team on Twitter: @FFToday, @Mike5754 @SiaNejad Watch FFT DFS on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today DFS on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, DFS.
My name is Sian Najad.
I am here for our Thursday game-by-game preview with Mike McClure.
We've got some news before we get into this 11-game slate.
I'm so eager to attack it, but I do, Mike, I got to ask you,
we just had the Jamar Chase news come across the wire, if you will.
Your just initial reaction to Jamar Chase being out,
it looks like at least four to six weeks with some sort of hip injury.
Yeah, it's not good for a number of reasons.
Number one, I don't get to play him again for a while, so that's unfortunate.
Number two, this news broke today and not on like Sunday.
So pricing for the Monday night football slate, not out yet.
We don't get big advantages on the showdown site, but really it's all seriousness.
Awful for him.
Awful for the Bengals who, you know, whether they were actually really good or just had
two really good matchups seemed to be hitting their stride.
Higgins was dealing with an injury.
It looks like he's fine and ready to go at this point.
So it's unfortunate,
but I hope that he's able to return later in the season and still let them
potentially push for a wildcard spot.
You know, maybe they can still win the division in this spot.
I don't know, but definitely a big loss to that offense for sure.
For sure. And these hip injuries are tricky, right? We're not exactly sure what the extent
of the hip injury is. I did just kind of rummage on Twitter for some of the doctors that I follow
or the MDs that I follow who usually give out some of this news. And I did hear the word,
and I wish I could attribute this to somebody, but it really was speculative. So I don't know that they'd want me to attribute it to them.
But Torn Labrum was something that was mentioned by some of these guys on Twitter, which, you know, wouldn't be a great scenario.
And so, you know, in terms of rehab and sitting out in the time frame and all that.
So it's just something we're going to have to monitor.
But it's really just a shame.
I mean, Jamar Chase is just one of those guys week to week, almost like Justin Jefferson, you know, one of these guys that can just turn, you know, an otherwise sort of average game into something extremely exciting, just based on one play or two plays.
Or in Jamar Chase's case, usually three or four plays. And it's just really too bad. But I'm sure he will be back healthy eventually. Eventually, the other piece of news, speaking of receivers, might not be a big piece of news to some people, but people in Kansas City who, by the way, don't like me right now because I tweeted out something about the Kansas City Chiefs before the season, basically suggesting that I thought the Broncos would be better.
I thought the Chargers would be better.
I thought the Chiefs would take a step back.
Apparently, that's the worst piece of analysis of all time. The idea that Tyreek Hill could leave that team and Kelsey turning 33 and, you know,
the defense being, you know, looking kind of, you know, just average.
The idea that somehow they would be eclipsed by Russell Wilson and the Broncos and Justin
Herbert and all his acquisitions on both sides of the ball.
The idea that that wouldn't be the death knell for the Saints, excuse me, the Chiefs,
apparently makes me just a huge idiot.
With all of that said, Kadarius Toney is on this team.
Now, Mike, you're a Kansas City Chiefs fan.
We all know this receiver core.
I mean, I think it's fair to say outside of Kelsey, this is a very average receiver core, if that.
Kadarius Toney makes them very, very interesting, right?
Very, very interesting.
And I do like the way you word it.
It is pretty much an average receiver core.
It's got guys that have flashed a ton of upside at points in their career. They've all landed in
a great spot because they have one of the best quarterbacks in a very creative offense in general.
That's what I'm most excited about for Kadarius Tony, though. He's very similar to Tyree Kill
in ways. I mean, we want to compare anyone who's fast like that to Tyree Kill. Nobody else is Tyree
Kill, but the combination of players that they've got,
they're very close to replicating it.
I'm very interested to see because Kadarius Toney basically came out and said,
hey, I'm not actually injured at this point.
I wasn't happy where I was at.
Like I said earlier, if you can't be happy going to Kansas City,
playing with Mahomes and in this offense,
you're probably never going to be happy in the National Football League.
So I'm very excited about it. One thing I want to touch on very
quickly with it is Kansas City is a team that loves to use motion on the offensive side of
the football. That is something that excites me for an electric player like Kadarius Toney.
Looking at teams with the most touchdowns in motion this season. The Chiefs lead the way with 22. The next highest is 13.
The Miami Dolphins who have Tyree kill now at this point, it's the Dolphins, Ravens, Jets,
Vikings. They're right behind them, but they have almost 10 more touchdowns using motion than any
other team so far this year. Now they've got an electric weapon that will be used in motion,
assuming he's healthy, which I kind of think that he is based on everything we've seen today. Yeah, I can't wait to watch this. Yeah, I think it's a really smart
acquisition by the Kansas City Chiefs. Love that analysis. And for the record, we have a showdown
tonight. I spoke a little bit about showdown. I think at the end of the show, we're just going
to touch on showdown for a second. And we're actually going to touch on why this line shifted
like it did. And Mike McClure has a very good explanation for
that, that I think we'll kind of see coming to fruition when this game starts. Of course,
Mike and myself, Mike, you're on the early edge tonight, right? The Thursday night football
preview. I will be on the early edge preview tonight. Yep. I will be on there as well. So
everybody watching, check that out. We're going to have a lot of prop bets and there's a lot of
things going on that aren't kind of out there yet that I think it's going to be really important as it pertains to
the spread in this game, but also the player props and things of that nature. So catch a little bit
of that at the end of this show, but definitely catch the seven 30 show. It's the early edge
for those of you that don't know. And before we dive into this first game, Arizona plus three
and a half at Minnesota, 48 and a half point total. This is obviously one of the, one of the
bigger games to stack. I do want to mention, hit the like
button. Let's get over 100 likes so we can hear Mike's top three at each position. If you haven't
already reviewed the podcast, we've got a lot of really great reviews that have come in over the
last few weeks, a lot of awesome tweets with lineups. Go ahead and hit the like button and
go ahead and review the podcast. Let's get started, Mike. We've got this 11-game slate.
This is one of the dome games. So I do
want to point out, I always look at the weather. It doesn't look like weather is going to factor in
in really any of these games, at least not right now as we sit here on a Thursday. With that said,
I do want to point out as we get into the season, these dome games typically take on a little bit
more importance when it comes to the totals and things of that nature. And oh, by the way, the three highest totals on this main slate on Sunday
happened to all three be dome games.
So I'm just kind of pointing that out.
It's the Cardinals and the Vikings, which we're going to cover right now,
the Dolphins and the Lions, and the Raiders and the Saints.
Those are the three highest totals on this slate,
and they all happen to be in domes.
Great conditions.
So something to keep in mind when you are stacking these games this week
and in the future.
Arizona plus three and a
half at Minnesota, 48 and a half point total, Mike. Both of these teams have weak secondaries.
I think that's kind of where people are going to be looking to attack this game. It's got a nice
total, 48 and a half, one of the higher ones. You know, Dehop, I think is going to be somewhat
popular. I think Justin Jefferson is going to be somebody that people are going to want to attack.
Minnesota obviously coming off a bye here.
I don't know that there's a lot of other players in this game.
I think Cousins' stacks are potentially in play.
I think Kyler Murray's stacks are certainly in play, certainly to DeAndre Hopkins,
who had almost a 50% target share last week and caught 10 of 14 targets.
Other than that, maybe Irv Smith as a salary saver.
Is this a game you're keying in on? And
if so, what side of the ball are you focused on? Yeah, it's a game that I'm keying in on a little
bit. It'll be more of tournaments. Like I'm basically going to reserve one of my five
lineups to have a lineup with Justin Jefferson and John Jay Hopkins, likely Kyler Murray at
quarterback in that lineup. And that's basically it from the game. I'm not going to try and get cute and pinpoint Irv Smith. I'm not going to get cute and try and play Dalvin
Cook personally, anything like that. While I think Cook is an interesting play in this particular
spot, I'm not going to get to that, but my main interest is in the two stud wide receivers.
I do like Kyler Murray. I think we're going to see him start to rush a lot more. I think you're
going to see an offense that's a ton of Kyler Murray picking up first downs
with his legs and looking for as many opportunities to hit DeAndre Hopkins as we possibly can.
And I think it's going to allow for them to be relatively competitive in these games.
But I think they're going to turn in to shootouts a lot because you're going to have situations
where they go three and out because they throw two incomplete passes to DeAndre Hopkins,
right?
It's going to happen. It's going to create higher variance situations, which is going to lead
basically more opportunities for them to be in a neutral or trailing game script,
which is really what you want a lot of the time when you're talking about these ceiling games in
DFS. The only other piece of advice I would have here, if you have access to legal sports betting
or wherever you have it, and you can play a same game parlay, I will be playing same game parlays, uh, kind of
laddered. Like when I say ladder, think of like a pitcher with strikeouts, right? I'll bet them at
four and a half, but I'm also going to sprinkle on his five and a half, six and a half and seven
and a half numbers and really try to get paid when I'm right. I'm going to do that with these
two wide receivers. So I'm going to sprinkle on Hopkins and Justin Jefferson on their over receiving yards parlayed together.
And then I'm going to take those numbers up to a hundred each, and then I'm going to take them up
to 125 each and pair them there just in case we get a shootout. Uh, I think it's a really good
way to make a lot of money, especially if they're too expensive for your DFS lineup and you're
worried about them beating you in DFS, simply bet they're over on yards.
They might hit it by one or two yards.
That's not going to be enough to kill you in DFS.
But if they do, they've gone over.
You're going to cash.
Very likely scenario is you cash both ways.
Those markets are efficient.
You cash the over 76.
They don't have 130 with two touchdowns.
You won both ways.
So that's what I'm looking at most in this game.
Yeah, and I agree with you as far as Dalvin Cook is concerned. I'm not, you know,
until I see some sort of uptick in the reception area and they are coming off a buy, maybe we'll
see it this week. I think it'll be a reasonably contrarian play. Although Mike, you can maybe
clarify that because I'm not exactly sure what his ownership, where his ownership stands now,
but you know, this is one of the few times I mentioned this on the Tuesday show where
I kind of like Kyler Murray, you know, Mike is one of the few times, I mentioned this on the Tuesday show, where I kind of like Kyler Murray.
You know, Mike, I've kind of been on his case all season,
but this seems to be a pretty good setup for him,
especially with his safety blanket back in DeAndre Hopkins.
And I'll say from a safety blanket standpoint,
I do think that DeAndre Hopkins just being targeted so much,
I do think that takes a little bit,
and we saw it last week, a little bit away from Ertz
in terms of Ertz being that safety blanket. So we're not really seeing the floor that we'd like to see
with earth so i would be really careful mike do you agree really careful in playing earths in this
game and follow up to that is herb smith we know we can target tight ends against arizona is that
a you know is that a play you'd be interested in maybe as a secondary person in a kurt cousins
stack yeah the more i look at it i actually do kind of like herb smith a little bit uh in this of play you'd be interested in maybe as a secondary person in a Kirk Cousins stack?
Yeah, the more I look at it, I actually do kind of like Herb Smith a little bit.
In this spot, as far as Zach Ertz, I think that in a normal week, I wouldn't be super interested.
This week, I don't hate it because there's a severe lack of expensive tight ends on the
slate.
We don't know the status of Waller, at least I personally don't yet.
George Kittle against the Rams 5,700.
Other than that, it's arts is the third most expensive tight end.
He might be the second most expensive tight end on the slate.
Uh, I just think it's an inch.
He still got the upside in my opinion, just because I do think he's still going to be
a threat in the red zone.
So he's not firmly in my player pool, but I haven't ruled him out of my player pool
yet.
I will say before we get, we're going to probably breeze through this Carolina Atlanta game before
we get to Miami in Detroit. That's what's on deck for us. But I do a prop show. Mike, you know,
I do the prop show with Jonathan Coachman, the coach, of course, and prop stars and Dave Richard
at four o'clock Eastern standard time tomorrow on Friday, we do it every Friday. Everybody knows
Dave and prop stars are amazing.
I try to keep up with those guys, but I will have a prop from this game and it will involve Kyler Murray. So I do, I might have multiple props, but I know I'm going to have one regarding
Kyler Murray. And it actually plays to a lot of the stuff that Mike was just talking about. Tune
in tomorrow or the early edge four o'clock for that Carolina and Atlanta, Carolina, a four and
a half point dog at Atlanta. It's a 41 and a half point total, certainly a low total as we might expect. You know, I don't think I really want to get involved
with this game outside of what appears to be a very suddenly chalky DJ Moore, who frankly is
really like kind of the only guy to get targets or at least consistent targets. I mentioned how
DeAndre Hopkins had almost a 50% target share last week.
He actually had 48%, which is just incredible. The second guy in terms of target share had an
incredible 47%, and that was DJ Moore. I don't really see that tempering down. I don't think,
I mean, they're going to be short area targets, the Curtis Samuel type targets, but without
Christian McCaffrey, without Robbie Anderson, PJ Walker is going to be looking directly at DJ Moore.
Are you playing the chalk here, Mike, or are you just overlooking this game entirely?
Probably going to play it in some situations, certainly not excluding from my player pool.
I think the value is pretty obvious. It's so good at this point.
It might be necessary. It really depends on what you're doing at quarterback.
And we're going to talk about that a lot later. But there's one quarterback that's the stone minimum $4,000.
You kind of have to, in my opinion, have a little exposure to them. If you're doing that,
I don't think you need to play DJ more. If you're playing anyone else at quarterback,
the value is a little too obvious at that point that I think that you do want to have them in
your player pool. Yeah. And for those of you that are not looking at a screen too obvious at that point that I think that you do want to have him in your player
pool. Yeah. And for those of you that are not looking at a screen, looking at our screen on
YouTube, by the way, if you haven't already hit the like button, hit it, but DJ Moore is only 5,300.
He was only 4,900 last week, made him a pretty great value. He's still obviously a pretty great
value. Would you say DJ Moore is a cash game lock Mike? Yeah. Uh, yes, it's very close he'll be yeah i'll say yes at this point in the
week yeah okay um let's move to the next game by the way i do want to point out as it pertains to
dj moore casey hayward is out uh defensive back he's he's on ir it looks like aj terrell is likely
going to be out as well that's just how i'm seeing things here on a thursday so should be more room
for really all the receivers i mean i don't think anybody's taking a shot at Terrace Marshall this
week, but I think that just is going to be even better for DJ more than it would already have
been. Let's go to one of these games that Mike, I know you like, I think everybody's going to like
it's the highest total of the week. It's Miami favored by three and a half points at Detroit.
It's a 51 and a half point total.
Miami's implied total is 27 and a half.
That's obviously huge.
I think it's actually the highest total.
It's the highest implied total on the slate.
So I'll just set that table right now.
Miami's 27 and a half. The next five teams, just from a implied total standpoint,
it goes the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Vikings,
the Raiders, and the Bengals. So Miami is set up for a great game against this terrible Detroit
defense. Mike, let me just kick it to you right off the bat here. Is this your favorite game to
stack and is Tua among your favorite quarterbacks? It is. Favorite side. And look, I don't, I'm not going to have a bring back.
It's going to be full on Miami onslaught personally, much like it was last week for me
with Cincinnati. I'm going to play Tua to Tyreek. It's really straightforward. I'm gonna play a ton
of Tyreek. Tyreek, like last week, I had Jamar Chase in every single lineup. I'm going to have
Tyreek Hill in every single lineup this week, pretty much no matter what. I love, love, love
this spot for him and for Tua in general.
Look, I think we're going to see some man coverage.
We're going to see some blitzing.
I don't think they're going to get home very often,
maybe two or three times in this game,
but otherwise we're going to see some big plays.
I love Tyreek here.
I'm not at this moment planning to bring it back with anybody, though.
Fair enough, and I do want to point out that Raheem Mostert did pop up
on the injury report today with a knee.
So we're going to have to monitor that.
And I say that because, Mike, I really like Raheem Mostert here as well.
And I'd like to get your opinion if you can play Tua with Tyreek Hill
and Raheem Mostert because Raheem Mostert presents a lot of value,
but he's certainly getting a lot of touches too.
He is absolutely running this backfield, and he's going against the Detroit defense, likely
in a neutral to positive game script all game.
That's allowing five and a half yards per carry, which is just to give some perspective.
That's like bottom five in the league.
So is Mostert in play in that stack, Mike?
Yeah, Mostert's definitely in play.
I do that quite often where I have quarterback number one wide receiver and running back who's got a ton of red zone opportunity and or upside catching passes. That's what I see here in this spot. So we'll monitor his injury status. But I do think he is a great play and potentially a really good pivot away from one of the most chalky running backs on the slate
who is spoiler alert go ahead tony pollard oh yeah of course we'll get to that um let me ask
you about amon ross st brown let's assume i mean i'd like to think his ankle is healthy although
i think he was limited in practice today which i just think is interesting he didn't actually
register like as a as you know having, having a concussion. So that's
good news to me that gave him an extra week to rest his ankle. But again, limited practice kind
of makes me a little fearful, but are we in a scenario where we're getting Amon Ross St. Brown
at potentially low ownership and maybe a slightly depressed price given what's happened with him
over the last three or four weeks? I almost feel like, I mean, I think Tyreek Hill is going to get there anyway,
but I think if you're doing Tyreek Hill and Mostert with Tua,
you're really kind of hoping for some sort of back and forth.
And I think even if DeAndre Swift is active, I don't want to play him.
I feel like Amon Ross St. Brown would be the guy.
Is he just too expensive?
Is it too speculative at this point with him?
It's a little too speculative.
We'll see by the time Sunday rolls around. I think it's fine. Yeah, I think it's fine. But Tyreek is one of those guys
that I think he's going to have his five to seven catches for 40 yards through normal game, no
matter what the game looks like, and potentially hit the 40-yard touchdown pass that really gets
him there. And I think that he's going to have that opportunity no matter what the game looks like,
even if it's a 27-0 kind of game.
So I don't think it's absolutely necessary.
The only time I would say it's absolutely necessary is the scenario where you want to stack Waddle,
Tyreek, and Tua, something like that.
Then it's going to be necessary to have a bring back.
But as of right now, I'm kind of on the fence about Amon or St. Brown all waited out.
If all the reports are that he's actually good to go, ready to go, he'll be in my player pool.
And one last thing, if you're not stacking this game, I'm assuming you're still OK playing Tyreek Hill.
But I'm just curious with Jalen Waddle being eighteen hundred dollars, and that's justified, right? He's not getting the targets.
He doesn't have the explosiveness. Nobody does. That's not an insult to Jalen Waddle. He doesn't have the explosiveness that Tyreek Hill has. Is Jalen Waddle maybe participating in some of these
skinny stacks if you just can't afford Tyreek Hill, or you're just going to pay up for Tyreek
Hill if you're getting a piece of the Dolphins side? Personally, I'm paying up for Tyreek Hill if I'm getting the Dolphins side.
I can tell you Tyreek's going to be in every lineup I build, at least on DraftKings.
I haven't consulted FanDuel's pricing yet, but on DraftKings, it's going to be Tyreek in every lineup,
just like Chase was for me last week.
But I will play a little bit of Waddle.
A little bit of Waddle.
Okay.
So we talked about Amon Ra and a little bit of DeAnddle um a little bit of waddle okay so we talked about amanra and and a little
bit of you know deandre swift and the detroit offense potentially pushing back a little bit
against the detroit lines and for m excuse me against the dolphins who by the way their secondary
continues to get injured so like somebody is going to be successful for detroit uh at the
receiver and it's just a matter of how successful how much is that sort of uh portfolio diversified among the receivers and the pass catchers. I include DeAndre Swift and
Jamal Williams in that and Hawkinson, of course, as well. With all of that said, let's transition
to the next game because I'm not sure we have a back and forth in this Philadelphia Eagles
at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers game. Pittsburgh's a 10 and a half point dog. It's only
a 43 and a half point total. Now, the flip side of that, of course, is we have one of the highest,ups, in my opinion, that he's seen all season individually.
It's not the best matchup on paper.
Obviously, we've seen this Pittsburgh defense be good in certain situations.
But this, to me, projects as a game where A.J. Brown's going to break out,
going to have that potential spike game where he just has all the work,
one or two big, big plays in this one.
The issue, well, I guess it's not an issue.
It's a great thing.
He's no one's going to own him.
AJ Brown is going to be very, very low owned in this spot.
And it makes a lot of sense.
He's more expensive than DeAndre Hopkins is in the same, right?
So I like him.
I'm projecting him around 2% owned.
I think that number could balloon as high as four or five,
but 0% chance he's double digit ownership. So if you like AJ Brown, like I do, this is in my
opinion, a week to isolate him. And I won't recommend playing him instead of Deandre Hopkins.
What I would recommend doing is building a lineup with Sam Ellinger at quarterback,
who we're going to talk about here in a little bit. And then your three receivers can be Tyreek
Hill, AJ Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. And all of a sudden you've got a ton of upside, but you're
going to be incredibly different because anyone else who's playing AJ Brown is most likely doing
it in place of one of those two. I like this spot where I pair him with two other elite wide receivers where AJ's
average game and one ceiling game from one of the other two can still give me a very,
very healthy score at all three wide receiver positions.
And obviously at the top of this list here of players in this game, which again, if you're
watching on YouTube, you can see, uh, draft Kings has pulled up.
We see Jalen hurts at the top at 8,300 going against a very, very
substandard pass defense, partly because of injuries, admittedly. Is Jalen Hurts in your
play? I know you only build a certain amount of lineups. So I'm just, you know, Jalen Hurts is
going to be popular. He's the most expensive quarterback on the slate. I think the average
player, and that's not meant to be an insult, is going to see Jalen Hurts. And then they're
going to see like Tua and Cousins, and they're not going to be super impressed with those names. Again, I'm talking about the average player and they're just going to go up to Jalen Hurts, and then they're going to see Tua and Cousins, and they're not going to be super impressed with those names.
Again, I'm talking about the average player,
and they're just going to go up to Jalen Hurts.
They might stack him.
They might play him naked.
Is he in your pool?
He is not in my player pool as of right now, no.
And the reason for that is Sam Ellinger.
We're going to talk about him.
I'm mentioning it a lot because he's $4,000.
Usually in this kind of situation, the quarterback is five to 5,500.
Being 4,000, it's like having an obvious value tight end play.
It just allows you to do so much.
So that's the reason why my quarterback pool is a lot more narrow this week.
I think there will only be three total across all 10 of my lineups.
The five on DraftKings, five on FanDuel. I think I'm only be three total across all 10 of my lineups, the five on DraftKings,
five on FanDuel. I think I'm only using three total quarterbacks. Okay. Love to hear it. Okay.
And as far as I'm concerned, I mean, I will probably play a little bit of Jalen Hurts,
maybe naked, maybe with AJ Brown. But to your point, Mike, this certainly isn't one of my favorite stacks, especially in a game that could be a little non-competitive, potentially, with the Eagles coming off a bye.
In the second half, we could see a little bit of Miles Sanders in some of that running game as well.
But fair enough.
For those who are stacking this game, is this just a game where you just avoid the run back altogether?
Or do you play a guy like George Pickens or Chase Claypool?
I think you can if you want to um for me personally it would be just all one-sided
no bring back yeah all right okay i do think deontay johnson could be kind of sneaky there
because i don't think anybody's going to play him at 5600 if they're doing a run back in that game
it's going to be pickens or claypool but i actually think deontay probably has the better
match up there i think pickens is, I think he's more likely to see
Darius Slay, but we'll see how that bears out. Okay. It's interesting to see, by the way,
Nadja Harris at 5,700. We're going to get to this Las Vegas minus one and a half at New Orleans
game, 49 and a half point total. But before we do that, we're going to hear a word from our partners.
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Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report.
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We want to get to 100 likes to hear Mike's top three at each position. Speaking of top three,
this is a top
three game to stack, Mike. The Las Vegas Raiders minus one and a half. It's still weird for me to
say Las Vegas Raiders for some reason. The Oakland Las Vegas Raiders minus one and a half at the New
Orleans Saints. It's a 49 and a half point total. There is some injury news that we're still not
sure about in this game. We're not entirely sure about Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry, Darren Waller, Adam Troutman,
who becomes relevant because of what we saw from Juwan Johnson last week.
With all of that said, I don't know, Mike, maybe you have a read on which of these receivers
is going to play.
I doubt you do, but if you do, please let us know.
This certainly seems like a great game to stack.
The Saints are scoring a bunch of points. They're also allowing a bunch of points. I suspect it's going to be Andy Dalton
at quarterback. Regardless, I love Chris Olave. I do like Alvin Kamara a lot, and I'm hopeful that
if I'm playing Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill isn't vulturing all the touchdowns. Maybe Kamara can
finally get in the end zone, but he's getting a lot of targets and that's really good, especially when Andy Dalton is in the game. Could you play both of those guys with maybe a cheap or zero
Las Vegas run back here? Yeah, you could definitely do it without a run back. I have a
slight, not slight, I have a strong preference for Alvin Kamara. Olave is totally fine. I think he's
incredible player. Probably going to be both used, both very viable.
I love Alvin Kamara though, uh, in this spot, he's my, I have him listed as my second favorite.
I'm going to bump him to my first favorite running back of the week.
Uh, I'm, you mentioned the passing game.
I love the work that he's getting in the passing game.
Dalton's going to be starting at quarterback.
There's a report that came out that said Dalton is the starter the rest of the way no matter what the status of jamis is uh so i i do like
on that a lot for alvin kamara um the usage is good both in the run and passing game you look
at his game log and you see these scores right pretty good scores considering he hasn't found
the end zone all season uh once he has the game where he scores two touchdowns, we're talking 35 to 40 fantasy points pretty, pretty quickly here. This projects as a matchup where he has
all of the upside in the world. The price point is super friendly. This is a guy that used to be
$9,000 in previous years and somewhat similar situations. So I love Alvin Kamara here. He's
my favorite running back on the slate. And then on
the other side, I have to mention Devontae Adams because Devontae Adams has an incredible matchup
here. I think they're going to continue to force the football his way. I think that this is also
a potential spike game for him where we're talking about 60 fantasy points between Kamara and Devontae
Adams. No interest in either of the quarterbacks, so there'll be skinny stacks or individual plays, but this is one of my favorite spots of the week.
There are a lot of wide receivers I like. I love Tyree Kill. A.J. Brown's a great tournament play.
Devontae Adams right there with DeAndre Hopkins. This is a really good individual matchup for
Devontae. Yeah, and I thought I had seen something about him. And as
this show goes, maybe popping up on the injury report, if it was, it was, or maybe he just
missed practice today with an illness. I don't think it's anything serious, but again, you always
want to monitor injuries just in case. Let me ask you about Josh Jacobs because guys like, and I'll
ask you kind of about two guys and we'll cover one of them in a second, but Josh Jacobs has 7,500
and guys like Ken Walker,
who I believe is 6,500.
These are guys that have been really chalky, particularly last week.
I mean, Ken Walker, the last couple of games in Jacobs as well.
Is, is it just, are we at a point where on this slate with wanting to stack the receivers
like you want to stack that you're just not going to get there with Josh Jacobs at 7,500
or do you, do you play a lineup with Josh Jacobs at 7,500? Or do you
play a lineup with Josh Jacobs and maybe Olave on the way back, or maybe even you correlate him
with the pass catching running back in Alvin Kamara? Yeah, look, I think that Jacobs has to be
in your player pool. I'm not going to have a lot of them. I might have one lineup with him,
but I really want to jump on Devontae Adams the same way that I want to jump on Alvin Kamara here.
Devontae Adams and Alvin Kamara have simply run bad in terms of touchdown scoring at this point.
While Jacobs has run incredibly good the last three weeks.
What does he have? Six touchdowns in the last three weeks.
While that's awesome and it's obviously a running back, you get touches near the goal line.
That can happen quite often.
Six is not the number we
would project there. The number is probably three, one touchdown per game, right? So these box scores
where he hasn't scored less than 33.3 DraftKings points in three weeks, that has a massive impact
on the overall ownership here. I still think we're going to have games where it's the Devontae Adams
show. So I'm more likely to play Adams than I am Jacobs because I love Alvin Kamara. And I think there are some other running backs in a little bit
better spots. That said, I'm not excluding him totally. He'll be in probably one of my five.
Okay. And for the record, if you weren't already convinced about Alvin Kamara,
the Raiders defense is not good specifically against pass catching running back. So even
if the rushing isn't super efficient for Alvin Kamara, if he's getting the targets in the passing game, not only
is he going to be successful with them, but I do think he falls in the end zone in this game. Again,
this is a basically a 50 point total. And even if Taysom gets some run, which he really didn't,
he hasn't, you know, in the last couple of weeks, I think it's Alvin Kamara's turn to get in the end
zone. If not once, maybe twice. I mean, we we've seen it with Alvin, right? Like we've seen a six touchdown
game from Alvin Kamara. It wasn't that long ago. So that was in one game. Regression is coming
for Alvin Kamara in a positive way. Let's race through a couple games before we get to the four
o'clock games. And they're good. When I say race, it's only because I don't think there's a lot in
these games that we're going to pull from other than, Mike, what you said was going to be the most popular running back on the slate, and it's for good reason.
So we have the Chicago Bears plus nine and a half big dogs at the Dallas Cowboys.
It's a 42 and a half point total.
Listen, it doesn't look like Zeke's going to play.
Okay, so Tony Pollard is 6,100.
We finally get to.
So here's part of the reason he's popular. Right. I mean, it's certainly a good matchup for for Dallas just in general. But everybody has been waiting to unleash, whether it's in your we finally get the opportunity to do that.
So not only is he popular for kind of like good reason on this particular slate, good value,
people just want to play this guy.
And I'm curious where you're at.
Is he, A, is he a cash game lock?
And B, is he in your GPP lineups as well?
Yeah, he's in most of the lineups so far.
Again, making the assumption
that it's his
backfield entirely here this week which look it's very possible the cowboys do something different
um wouldn't shock me at all but i i think this is the day where he has not only 100 yards because
he has 17 carries but he also lands in the end zone catches a few passes has that big game right
so i i like him a lot he's in my player pool. You know, look, it's $6,100 for the running back in that offense and what is a pretty good
matchup again in a home game. Yeah, there's a lot to like about Tony Pollard, assuming that it is
truly his backfield. Yeah. And if you just look at, I mean, it's so funny because you watch these
Cowboys games and you see Zeke. And again, I get it. We talk about it every show.
I mean, I know I do, where I'm like, I know Zeke's good at pass protection.
I know that he does things that not only Tony Pollard can't do,
but a lot of the running backs can't do in terms of some of those things
you don't see in the stat sheet.
But you look at the yards per carry, and every single game,
it feels like Tony Pollard's yards per carry is, it's not just better.
It's double Zeke Elliott's yards per carry.
So you're just kind of waiting for him to kind of get out there.
So, you know, I think there's always that argument.
I mean, not, you know, it's more in, you know, when we do PGA DFS and we see chalk, it's
like, okay, it's very easy to fade the chalk in PGA DFS.
But in NFL DFS, you all, you sometimes get that discussion about like
the free square. Does this qualify or 6,100? I mean, it's not, it's not your, your classic
free square where it's like, you know, a couple of years ago, Gus Edwards or something at 4,000
or something, but is this the kind of thing you shouldn't be bashful playing in tournaments
because of it being his backfield? If it ends up being that, that that's the case.
In this particular matchup. i think it is uh it
reminds me a little bit of a scenario last year where we had alexander madison he was fifty five
hundred dollars uh just one of those spots i think madison still had more upside individually
just because of the way the team played at that point uh but it's somewhat similar he's definitely
in your player pool okay uh. Anybody on the Bears side?
I mean, I think the answer is no,
but I feel like I have to ask the question.
And is CeeDee Lamb at 7K?
I mean, it just doesn't seem like the week to play CeeDee Lamb
in a 42.5 point total with a big spread,
especially with Dak kind of looking just kind of average last week.
Anybody on the Cowboys side or the Bears side
not named Tony Pollard that you might be interested in?
Not at this point, no.
Okay.
Let's move on then to another game that we're going to go through pretty quickly because it's the New England Patriots at the New York Jets.
It's a 40.5 point total.
The New England Patriots are, again, at New York and they're favored by 2.5.
No Brees Hall here. And I think the question here from a Brees Hall, New York Jets standpoint is
the extent to which James Robinson is going to play or be active or be integrated into this
offense. I guess my question for you, and maybe I don't think we know exactly what J Rob's role
is going to be. If we learn that he's just not going to be active or he's not going to have a
big role, does Michael Carter at 5,900 become part of the conversation?
Because he's also a pass catching running back. Is that somebody you would speculate on? Clearly
the receivers are probably not going to be in play for you on either side is my guess at a 40
and a half point total. I'm guessing Ramondre Stevenson really isn't quite in the conversation
for you, even though he's been great. I do see Damian Harris getting a few more carries relative
to last week against the Chicago Bears.
Is it Michael Carter or nothing, or is it just flat out nothing?
It's flat out nothing at this point.
Look, Stevenson is the closest thing to a play for me here.
And the reason is, yes, I think Harris gets some more.
Stevenson is incredibly good.
I've been encouraged with the passing game work, though.
He had eight receptions on eight targets last game, five targets the game before we've seen
multiple other games with five. Uh, once a running back like that with his upside, especially in the
red zone, um, once that number is multiple weeks at five or above, uh, it starts to signal some
pretty significant upside that could lead to spike games.
So for that reason, I think you have to at least consider him.
And yeah, he's my favorite play in the game if I had to play someone.
And I'm going to ask you about this.
This is going to be kind of probably a prelude to maybe your top threes. By the way, hit the like button if you haven't already.
We'd like to get over 100.
Mike, in terms of the new England defense. Is that a
defense that, that people are playing in? And do you have maybe in terms of like maybe the more
popular defenses, is there maybe one or two that are just streaming out or is it just kind of flat
across the defenses? I'm going to pull up the ownership on that, but I will tell you that I
personally am going to play the Patriots defense. I like the spot. I personally
think the Jets aren't one aren't very good. That's just my opinion of everything that I've watched,
everything that I've seen. Right. And I think that they could really struggle without pretty
soul. I think that his loss might really start to show itself over the next few games here. So
the Patriots are projecting as a top four or five defense in terms of ownership
overall. Um, but nothing crazy to the point where we've seen a couple of times this year where
there's a defense at 20 to 30% owned. I don't think that they get up that high. Yeah. Zach
Wilson without Brees Hall could be quite the experience. So I think, uh, he hasn't really
been exposed yet because of Brees Hall, at least not since he's come back from the injury.
And this could be a situation where it could get ugly for the New York Jets,
or at least ugly enough where they're reduced to the old New York Jets
instead of the New York Jets.
Okay, let's go to the 4 o'clock games.
We've got four of them this week, just like last week.
Tennessee at Houston.
I think this one is a little interesting from a value standpoint
because it doesn't look like Nico Collins is going to play. Again, I think we have to wait for official word on him. And if he doesn't, I think guys like Philip Dorsett might be popular, might be good values. I don't know, Chris Moore might get into the conversation to some degree, at least in terms of targets that are being replaced by Nico Collins. I'm not super enamored by that, but Ryan Tannehill,
we're not sure he's going to play.
It looked like Malik Willis on Thursday took, if not all the reps,
most of the reps.
At least that's the video footage that I saw from the Tennessee Titans
practice today.
We know Tannehill left the game in a walking boot,
but he's shed that walking boot.
His ankle is heavily taped.
I'm not sure he's going to play.
And I just wonder, Mike, if he doesn't play, is Malik Willis,
and I know we're going to talk about Ellinger in a second,
but is Malik Willis potentially a play because he can pick up those rushing yards?
And if not, do we downgrade Derrick Henry just a little bit
because of the lack of a threat of the passing game from Malik Willis?
I mean, they don't pass a lot anyway,
but I think Tannehill is probably the more reliable guy at this point in terms of the dropbacks. Does Malik
Willis starting affect Derrick Henry? I think it could have a minor impact. I don't think it's
massive. Henry's not someone you were playing anyway in terms of like cash games, most likely.
So I don't think it's going to have a massive, massive impact. You're playing Derek Henry because of the upside he presents,
not because you're projecting 24 versus 22 touches kind of thing. You're just simply
just playing him because of the upside that he presents him, at least in my opinion.
So I don't think it has a massive impact on Derek Henry. Anything that it does is negated
by the ownership drop because of that thought process.
Yeah. And Zach, keep it here on this Derrick Henry game log, because I'm interested, you know, you talked about the three receivers that you really want to jam in. And I'm forgetting, I think it was Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, and maybe AJ Brown. And that was specifically to the Sam Ellinger lineup. So I get that, that that was a very specific scenario. But I'm curious, of those three receivers, does Derrick Henry,
because they're all expensive, right, does Derrick Henry eclipse any of these guys?
And I say that looking at this game log, 128 yards rushing last week, 102, 114.
And oh, by the way, in the passing game, he's picking up yardage as well,
and he's picking up targets, not a ton, but three targets, two targets,
five targets, six targets over his last four contests. Does Derek, is he in your player pool? It looks like he's obviously in an
amazing matchup against the Houston Texans defense. You can't stop the run. They're allowing
5.24 yards per carry, which is bad. Is he eclipsing any of those receivers that you really like?
Yeah. I mean, look, there are scenarios where he eclipses them
for sure. Um, I think that Justin Jefferson probably has the widest range of outcomes,
uh, in this particular spot, just because the Vikings could find success in other ways. Uh,
and we we've seen it right. And his price points the highest at 9,100. Um, so if I had to leave
one out, it would probably be Justin Jefferson and just focus on the DeAndre Hopkins, where he has really no threat for targets,
no threat of a running game, things like that,
and likely a guaranteed neutral or negative game script.
So yeah, I'll say that he definitely can eclipse all three of them, though.
I think that that's definitely possible.
And I'll confirm this before the show is out.
It does look like Nico Collins is going to be out.
Any interest in Chris Moore at 3,400 or Philip Dorsett at 3,200?
And is Damian Pierce a fade or a play here against a pretty staunch Tennessee Titans rushing defense?
Pierce is going to be a fade for me personally.
I get why people want to play him.
It's impossible to argue with the volume. He's essentially Derek Henry in terms of volume with a price point that is $2,000 cheaper.
So I'm not going to play him though.
It's a pretty difficult matchup in this division game.
So I'm out on Pierce as far as the cheaper guys.
I don't hate it, but I really don't love it.
I think you could do better.
And I would rather take a value
route at the quarterback position with Ellinger and spend a little more elsewhere personally.
Yeah, gotcha, and I did check on Nico Collins' status, so he didn't practice on Thursday with
the groin injury. All signs sort of point to him not playing on Sunday, but him not practicing
Thursday does not mean he's definitely not playing, so something to monitor if you're
interested in the backup receivers in this game. Speaking of backup receivers, Mike,
professional transition. We got the Giants at the Seattle Seahawks, and I don't think DK Metcalf is
going to play. I know he shouldn't play, and so I don't think he's going to play, and I frankly
don't think he's going to play next week either. With that said, we have some value that potentially
opens up, and maybe not just at the receiver position, but maybe at the tight end position as well, for the Seattle Seahawks.
Now, this is a 44.5 point total. Seattle's favored by three. Giants are riding high. You wonder when that trip is going to do the early edge preview. I believe it's on Tuesdays. Correct me if I'm wrong. It's on Tuesdays or Mondays I guess my question though, is are you getting there with
either of them and is a Gino Lockett stack in play? If not Lockett Goodwin, are they in your
player pool? Yeah. So I'll start with Kenneth Walker. I love him. I think he's great play in
this spot. I think he's also going to feed off of the energy of getting to play opposite of
Saquon Barkley. Uh, it's a very real thing for especially young, impressive running backs like
this. Love the price point here, 6,500. He's going to be popular again, but for good reason.
Really, really like him there. As far as games, the game itself, I lean Seattle here, which is a
little wild. They're minus three. The Giants, again, the Giants are the better coach team.
They've largely overperformed so far this season. Saquon's in a decent spot overall,
but it is a tough road environment here for the Giants. So as of right now, it's Kenneth Walker
for me. I could get to Tyler Lockett a little bit. He's going to be in the player pool for sure.
Goodwin could be in the player pool as well. So that means Geno is there. I just don't think that it's the obvious Geno week
or obvious Geno in the player pool
like it has been over the last few.
So I'm not ruling them out,
but not core lineup pieces this week
like they were in the past.
The one player that becomes a pretty important piece for me
against this Giants defense is going to be Noah Fant.
I like Noah Fant,
assuming DK Metcalf is out. I think things changed just a little bit in the passing game here.
And I think this could be a potential week for Noah Fant to find the end zone,
have a big enough game to pay off the very modest $2,800 price tag.
Now is, correct me if I'm wrong, is Will Disley, he is playing in this game, right?
Let me check on everything here.
He should be though, yes.
So I only ask, and I think he is too, I only ask because you're not afraid of like the
Will Disley kind of pulling some targets away from Noah Fant.
Not necessarily.
We've seen them both playing in recent weeks, but we've seen, you know, against Arizona,
Noah Fant had seven targets.
He had five targets against New Orleans. He's definitely going to be out there. I think we see
a change in philosophy a little bit in terms of the number of tight ends in some of the sets.
I ultimately think that Fant is athletic enough that again, they kind of use him in a hybrid role,
if you will, in this particular matchup. So I like Noah Fant here. I could be
incredibly wrong. The good news is, is the opportunity cost at tight end, not the same
that it normally is. So there, there is no Mark Andrews. There is no Travis Kelsey. Um, we don't
have any real tight end. That's basically a wide receiver on this slate. Um, so I'm more willing
to take risks at this point, knowing that I'm very unlikely to be
having to fade a 30-point performance at tight end this week. And real quick, before we move on,
when you say for the newer sort of DFS players, when you say opportunity cost, tell us what you
mean. Yeah, just the opportunity in that particular spot. You know, you're using a tight end that I know has a floor of probably two to three points
and maybe a ceiling of only 15 to 20.
The average tight end on the slate is essentially that as well.
We're in a normal week when we have Travis Kelsey, we have Mark Andrews,
we have some of these other guys, we have Hawkinson in a great matchup, things like that.
There's a very strong probability that the tight end number
one on the slate is scoring close to 30 fantasy points. We don't have that this week. So my
Noah Fant play at 2,800, while it saves me salary and lets me to spend elsewhere, if he has a game
of 7.9 points, like we've seen him have three or four of the last five weeks, basically,
it's not going to kill me. Absolutely.
And for the record, I like Ken Walker as well.
I've definitely come around to him this weekend.
I like locking in Goodwin.
I mean, Goodwin is speculative.
You know, the floor perhaps is low, but I like the upside there.
I mean, the Giants will come after Geno Smith and they'll play some man.
And, you know, Geno doesn't do it with a lot of pass attempts,
but when he's efficient, he's really efficient.
And now the targets are perhaps maybe just as concentrated,
but with DK Metcalf out, it's really Tyler Lockett
and a bunch of discount guys.
So I think this is a really interesting game,
maybe to get a couple pieces up on the Seattle side,
maybe to stack it.
It's certainly a dangerous stack,
not one of the more popular ones for sure.
Real quick before we get to this Sam Ellinger game,
Wanda Robinson's only 4,700. Is that the type of value you might want to play regardless of
whether you're stacking or not? Um, I think it's okay. Um, I, not someone that I had in my player
pool initially. Um, it's okay. I prefer if he was like 41, 4 personally yeah okay so let's move to at 425
we got the washington football team that's what i'm going to call them uh at the indianapolis
colts it's a 39 and a half point total that's very low uh the indianapolis colts implied total
just to give you some perspective on that 21.25 washington's is 18.25 sam ellinger's only four
thousand dollars and he's the starting quarterback in this game.
Got Jonathan Taylor.
He's relatively priced up, not really at 8K.
Michael Pittman, 7,200.
Paris Campbell, Alec Pierce in that standard sort of mid-4K range.
Sounds like you like Sam Ellinger, Mike.
I do.
If you've followed me for a while, you know I like to find a cheap quarterback in a lot of situations, jam some studs in.
I like him in this spot quite a bit.
Go ahead.
No, I was going to say, so let me break it down real quick.
So do you like him in cash and in tournaments?
And if you like him in cash, is he a guy that's going to be a staple in your cash games?
And is he going to be unaffiliated with any of the receivers mostly unaffiliated with receivers i like him in all
formats just because of the price point and because of what's what it allows me to do
it's not because i love him individually it is the combination of can i play sam ellinger at 4k
and get tyree kill and say DeAndre Hopkins in there for almost
the same price as playing someone like Kirk Cousins, Irv Smith, and Justin Jefferson.
And I think that it's a much better combination, right? So that's why I'm going to play him.
What I want to focus on most though with him is the rushing upside. I think he has enough rushing upside to be dangerous.
If you watch him play at Texas, I know quarterbacks tend to run more in college football.
He was very, I shouldn't say very, he was dynamic enough and electric enough with the legs.
Let's look at the preseason so far this year.
I know it's a preseason game.
Last game he played, one rushing attempt, 45-yard touchdown.
First game he played, four rushing attempts, 24 yards.
He played in the preseason last year, right?
Eight rushing attempts, 30 yards in the first preseason game.
I'm not saying he's Taysom Hill.
He's nowhere close to being Taysom Hill.
But if he can have even 30 rushing yards in this game out of necessity, whatever it may be,
that goes a long way to a quarterback's floor when they're $4,000 on the slate.
So I also think that there are situations where we could see bootleg plays where there's a fake to Jonathan Taylor
because everyone in the building knows Jonathan Taylor's getting football, right? He's more than capable of doing
things like that. And I personally think he has just as much upside throwing the football as Matt
Ryan at this point in Matt Ryan's career. Um, so I like him, I'm playing him. This could be a week
that I don't cash and that's fine for me. But the more likely scenario is, is I throw him out there. He gets close to 20 fantasy points.
Anything above that is absolute money.
And it allows me to have three wide receivers that potentially score 30 points each.
Yeah.
And I do think, you know, one thing Washington does well, they're pretty good against the
run.
They're awful in the secondary, but they can also rush the passer.
So, I mean, I do think that lends itself to Sam Ellinger, Ellinger kind of using his legs to break the pocket and get a first down sort of the old school way with his
legs. So I think there's going to be opportunities for him in this game. If you wanted to get crazy
and you really wanted to save money, Sam Ellinger with Paris Campbell at 4,500, does that make sense?
Just knowing that, that again, it's extremely
speculative. Obviously Pittman's, you know, Pittman is in this game, Alec Pierce, they've
all three of the tight ends, but Campbell has been the target hog over the last couple of weeks.
Is it, I understand you're taking a shot in more ways than one with Ellinger to Paris Campbell,
but if you wanted to get crazy and really save money, is that in play at all? Or we're just
kind of going too far afield here? Oh, no, no it's definitely in play and i'll tell you the other thing that's in play when we
get to the cheat sheet you're going to see a name jonathan taylor on mine uh what's in play here is
a lot of checking down and dumping off to jonathan taylor who by the way is more than capable of
catching passes out of the backfield uh as evident by last week um so yeah i it's very speculative, right? We could see a game where
Sam Elger doesn't run the football at all. I think that that's very possible as well.
So understand that when we're talking about it, but I'm going to take that bet.
Quickly looking back at when he played at Texas in the four years, 114 rushing attempts as a freshman, 164 as a sophomore, 163 as a junior, 113 as a senior there. His junior year,
he had 163 rushing attempts in 13 games, 663 rushing yards in those 13 games. Again, I know
it doesn't translate super well to the NFL, but when you're capable of doing that in those
situations in a league like that,
I personally think he's got a little bit of upside. I think Frank Wright knows that. And I
think that's why he's going to use them in the spot. Cause like someone Dave said in the chat,
it's not like their season is done in that particular division being three and three,
three, three, and one. Right. Totally agree. I'll know for the record on the Washington side,
I'm not really interested in any, but I McLaurin had a nice spike game last week. It could happen again. I don't think I'm willing to pay up for any Washington member. Mike, same answer for you or no?
Yeah, same answer for me. I'm going to isolate the value on Sam Alger and move on, basically. game before we go to our top three in our cheat sheet it's the san francisco 49ers minus one and a half at the los angeles rams a 42 and a half point total i don't have a ton of interest in
this game oh by the way i just saw i just looked at how many people were watching i think we had
close to 200 just a couple moments ago but we only have as far as i can tell 52 likes so let's get
those up i mean listen if half of you that haven't hit the like button,
hit the like button right now, we're going to get to 100 really easy.
And we're going to give the top three from Mike McClure at each position.
I mean, it's really easy to find the like button.
So go ahead and hit it real quick.
We're going to cover San Francisco, Los Angeles Rams.
And if we don't have the 100 likes, I might just go right to the cheat sheet.
I mean, I see all of you watching.
Like, it's really, I promise you, it is not hard to hit the like button.
If you don't see it, pull the chat down, and then you'll see it right away.
San Francisco minus one and a half at the Rams.
I just covered that.
42 and a half point total.
I don't really like anything here.
I mean, I think Cooper Cup is great.
Last time he played this team, he caught 14 of 19 targets.
We know they're kind of just pitching everything underneath because they don't have a field
stretcher. With that said, Van Jefferson is back. I still think it's going to be
the Cooper Cup show. I'm not interested in the Rams backfield. I'm not 100% sure Henderson's
going to get the lion's share of the carries. And if he does, I'm not really sure he's going to do
anything great with it. You know, do I want to pay up for a cup in this particular game with a
pretty low total and a pretty good defense? Probably not.
I think it's interesting. I think you could play cup and maybe like a speculative or
slightly contrarian Kittle run back because Kittle's starting to get the targets. And if
Debo Samuel is out, I think it's certainly a bump up to IU and George Kittle. That's how I see this
game. To me, it's kind of like Kittle or maybe nothing in this game. How do you see it?
Yeah, you might have talked me into Kittle 5700.
If Debo is out, you know, I might change my stance a little bit on the tight end position.
Other than that, I've spent the last hour talking about the wide receivers that I love.
I kind of love Christian McCaffrey in this spot. I don't know what the playbook is going to look like for him other than the
fact that they know he's capable of catching passes.
If Debo is not out there,
I think he gets used even more.
He's playing the Rams again,
a team that he just played.
They couldn't stop him at all on an awful Carolina offense.
I,
and it wasn't just sheer volume that got him there.
He only touched the football 13 times on the ground against them.
69 yards, no touchdown had eight targets, seven receptions in the passing game. That's where I
think that he's going to be used and needed for Jimmy. So there are scenarios out there where I
have a Christian McCaffrey lineup, uh, and end up playing one of those value receivers. Um, yeah.
Okay. Uh, yeah, I don't mind the Christian McCaffrey play. I just don't know if I'm going
to get up to that, but yeah, it's, it's definitely, it's always a Christian McCaffrey spot. Just like
it's always a Cooper cup spot. It's just a matter of whether you can incorporate him at your lab.
I see something in the chat, by the way, I see the lights going up too, but we're still not there.
Derek Graham says Colts DST. I want to point that out to you because
I think the Washington DST is interesting too. Like, listen, I understand the Sam Ellinger play of course.
And it, but we have to admit it could be boom or bust. Right.
So, I mean, is, is Washington a defense to potentially play?
Obviously you're not going to be playing Colts or,
or Sam Ellinger in, in that type of scenario,
but is that a defense you'd consider in perhaps your non-Sam Ellinger stack or
your, or, or plays,
or are you so convinced that he's going to do at least okay,
you're just going to avoid Washington?
So that's a great question.
Commander's defense, Washington football team,
I like that name better anyway,
they are projecting as the number one owned defense on the slate.
Makes a ton of sense.
They're facing a quarterback making the start there, right?
So I'm not going to go that route because I, whether I'm right or wrong,
I've convinced myself that Sam Ellinger
is the guy that I need to be playing this week.
So I tell you what I do every week
and then I go do it, right?
That's exactly what we do here.
I'm going to play Sam Ellinger this week,
no matter what.
And I don't care what anyone else says about it.
It's what I believe.
So I'm going to take that stance.
It's a beautiful situation for me
because it's either going to be a really good week, it's a beautiful situation for me because it's
either going to be a really good week or probably a not so good week. And I might minimum cash
because we know that the commanders are going to be the most popular defense. If the most popular
defense is going up against my most popular quarterback, that's a good spot to be in. I
like that leverage. Let's apply it. Right. So I like the Colts. I like the Colts defense personally.
Uh, I think it's a good spot for them.
And then the other one, since we're talking about defense right now,
I like the 49ers defense quite a bit.
They gave up a lot of points to Kansas City.
Now they're playing a Rams team that frankly isn't very good,
near the bottom of the league in pretty much every offensive metric,
running backs and shambles.
It's a game that San Francisco really must win.
And I say must win is they can win the division.
Basically, if they win this week, they, they steal this win against the Rams.
Seattle has all they can handle potentially with the giants.
All of a sudden it's their division.
If they can just squeak through this week here.
So the 49ers, the Colts and the Patriots are my three defenses that I really love.
Okay.
Let's – that's the whole slate.
Let's change this and transition right to the cheat sheet
and hopefully we can get these likes up a little bit.
We have so many people watching, but we only have bordering on 70 likes.
Let's go right to the cheat sheet, Mike.
Yeah, I know.
It's a little disappointing.
I feel like it's like such an easy thing to do.
I'm a little disappointed in you all, but you guys will make it up to me. You guys and girls will make it up
to me. Let me start with my cheat sheet. And then we can go to yours and then we'll, we'll figure
out the, the top three at each position. My stack is Kyler to D hop. And it's honestly, I'll be
honest. I do like it, but you kind of took the stack. I liked, and I knew you would. Right.
And so we'll, we'll talk about that in a second second but I do love Mike's stack my value play is Marquise Goodwin you know I do think we could
see Marquise Goodwin get loose against this Giants defense the Giants defense has been just fine but
they are an aggressive defense and I think Marquise Goodwin is the guy the kind of guy that can get
behind the defense pretty easily I do like Geno Smith as well my chalk plays Raheem Mostert so
again we have to monitor the injury reports and make sure he's totally fine. He did pop up with a knee. So we
had a limited practice today. I'm sure he's fine. I love his value at 5,900. So do a lot of people.
So give me Raheem Mostert there. Contrarian play is George Kittle. That's one of those where I'm
hoping the volume is there for him. It's sort of predicated on Debo Samuel being out.
If Debo Samuel is not out, I would probably change that play.
So it's just something to monitor.
I don't think Debo is going to play.
I believe San Francisco has a bye week next week.
So I think it makes sense if he's iffy to perhaps hold him out.
My fate is CeeDee Lamb.
It looks like he's picking up some popularity.
And I'm more interested in the Pollard side of that.
I don't know where the
passing game is going to be in this particular game. Mike, how about you? All right. Well,
I will start by saying I do like your stack, Tyler. Eric Tyler. Kyler to DeAndre Hopkins.
I love that. But I'm going Tua to Tyreek. Not getting super cute with it. It's going to be
pretty popular for a good reason. I think this is an absolute explosions game for the two.
Value play, Noah Fant.
Again, highly speculative.
Good news is the tight end position is relatively weak this week,
so we get to speculate a little bit more than normal.
But my speculation here is DK Metcalf is going to miss this game for Seattle.
When he does, Noah Fant is more of a hybrid role,
sees a few additional snaps and targets. So I like Noah Fant here. My chalk play, Noah Fant is more of a hybrid role, sees a few additional snaps and
targets. So I like Noah Fant here. My chalk play, Alvin Kamara. I'm going to list him as chalk.
It's fringe chalk to not really being chalk, just kind of average ownership.
I personally believe that after we talk about it, after we touted on Sportsline, do whatever,
that he's going to be pushed up into that chalk category. I love Alvin Kamara. I love him with
Andy Dalton playing quarterback.
I love him in a potential shootout here with the Raiders.
Give me Alvin Kamara.
My contrarian play, Jonathan Taylor.
Jonathan Taylor, we know he's going to see handoffs.
He's still not popular this week because of the price point, because of the other running
backs on the slate.
I think that it's going to be a heavy dose of him and Sam Ellinger together here in this spot. I like him. I think it's a spike game for him. I love what I've seen
from him in the passing game. And then my fade, Damian Pierce. Volume, hard to argue with it.
However, don't think it's a great matchup. Kind of slow. Division game. Teams know each other
really well. Going to stay away from this one on Damian Pierce. Yeah. And I'll be honest, my fade was also Damian Pierce until I saw that it was your fade. So I'm,
I'm in full lockstep with you on the Damian Pierce fade. Okay. So, uh, I want to touch on
showdown real quick. I'll tell you what, we're kind of close to the a hundred. Um, keep hitting
the like button if you can, but let's just go ahead and give your top three and I'll hold them
to task next Thursday during our game by
game preview. I'll make sure they actually hit the hundred. Give me your top three at each position.
I think if you listen to this show, you kind of have a good idea of who was top three is certainly
probably at quarterback. Um, but let's start there and just really quickly run your top three
quarterback running back wide receiver tight end. Yeah. If you've listened, you know, the answers
to QB to a number one quarterback. Number two, Sam Ellinger.
Number three, Kyler Murray running back Alvin Kamara.
Number one.
Number two, Kenneth Walker.
Love his upside.
Love the spot for him.
And then number three, Tony Pollard listed as number three until we have 100% status
update that it is his backfield wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Number one by a mile mile DeAndre Hopkins number
two and then number three is DJ Moore for now uh that could change as always go to sports line
I'll have the entire player pool up there but as of right now it is those three at the tight end
position number one Noah Fant again highly speculative at tight end position this week
number two Foster Moreau didn't have the big spike game last week.
Think it's another interesting matchup here against the Saints.
And then finally, Dalton Schultz.
I had Dalton Schultz in a tournament lineup last week.
Love him again this week, just because things are still uncomfortable for Dak.
I think that he's going to be that safety blanket, especially with Zeke out.
Pass protection could get a little iffy for him
because, as we all know,
that's all Zeke is actually good at is pass protection.
Dalton Schultz is my number three tight end.
And then my defenses,
I misspoke when I told you my top three earlier.
The Patriots are number one.
The Seahawks are number two.
And the Colts are number three.
Okay.
And by the way, as far as Foster Moreau goes,
just make sure Darren Waller's not playing in that game.
Monitor his hamstring issue,
but certainly worthy of taking a shot at Foster Moreau if Waller is out.
All right, we'll close the show with this, Mike.
The line in the Ravens game tonight, it moved from Ravens.
I believe they were favored by one and a half or two,
and it moved like three points towards Tampa.
I think they're now a one and a half or two point favorite. It looks like Mark
Andrews is active and Rashad Bateman is active, but tell us why you think that line moved.
Yeah, well, there's a couple reasons it moved more than I even told you pre-show.
We'll start this look ahead line. So when we're talking look aheads, it's, you know, last week's look ahead here, right? Well, the look ahead line was Tampa minus three. Tampa laid an absolute egg,
did not play well, lost Carolina, right? That line shifted all the way to plus one and a half
where the Ravens were favored. Now throughout the week, it's kind of adjusted slightly back
to when it was basically a pick them. That's kind of the market moving back to where it should have been in the overreaction.
What's interesting here is the status of Mark Andrews.
He obviously had a terrible game last week dealing with a knee injury.
What's interesting here is when you look at the sportsbooks,
you can't bet on Mark Andrews receiving yards tonight at this point.
It is not on the board.
It was on the board early in the week for about 30 hours at most
at 58 and a half yards. What you can do though, is you can bet on him in same game parlays. If you
go build a same game parlay, they've dropped the yardage on him from the lowest number used to be
54 and a half. Now it is 44 and a half, and they still allow you to play him. So what they're doing
is basically allowing you to go build them into your same game parlays. He plays one snap or is limited. Those parlays are not going to hit, but what they will
not let me do is go bet on his under for yardage at this point, because they know they will get
flooded with it. So if you're out there building same game parlays for tonight, be very careful
with Mark Andrews in those parlays until you feel like you have a lot more information in terms of, is he going to actually play?
Will he be a decoy? Will we even know the true intent before kickoff?
I'm not sure that we will.
But some of that late news is definitely related to that.
And we will talk about that late news, by the way, Mike,
on the early edge tonight,
you and me are on the early edge tonight with prop, with Jonathan Coachman, I believe with Alan Bell.
That's 7.30 Eastern Standard Time on the Early Edge Sportsline YouTube channel.
Definitely check that out because a lot of that news and sort of the props and the yardage totals and things of that nature,
it's such a key indication of what's going to happen in the game with these players.
And usually we have that news by the time we start that show. We do it for Monday night football, Sunday night football,
Thursday night football, and then we have a pre-Sunday main slate show as well on the early
edge. So catch us in just about an hour on that show. This is the, I mean, enough about early
edge, right? This is fantasy football today, DFS. We've covered the main slate. If you have
questions, I see some questions about players in the chat. Come over to the Early Edge tonight at 7.30
and ask those same questions.
We will get them answered.
This has been the Thursday Game by Game Preview.
That's Mike McClure.
I am Sienna Jha.
This is Fantasy Football Today, DFS.
And we'll see you on Tuesday for the lineup recap
and the early look at Week 9.
Until then.