Fantasy Football Today - NFL Schedule Release! Best and Worst Matchups, Avoid All Giants? (05/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

Starting point is 00:00:21 Who's ready for Cowboys Eagles to start the season? Dave, you ready? George Pickens, baby. Let's go. I don't love it. I don't love it. I don't love it for George Pickens, but I kind of like it for the Eagles. Yeah, I don't love it for the NFL. I think we could have done better than the Cowboys. Maybe the Cowboys would be good again. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:00:44 But I would have loved to see like Packers Eagles, something like that, that kind of rematch. But, oh, okay. Oh, well, you know what? And then that's Thursday, September 4th, Friday, September 5th. We are in Brazil. We'll be there.

Starting point is 00:00:56 We are? Yeah, we're in here. We're going. We're going to Brazil? You and I are calling the game. They couldn't find a broadcaster. So we're doing it for YouTube TV. You know, I don't remember my swimsuit.

Starting point is 00:01:08 Kansas city and the chargers in Brazil. All right, welcome to our bonus episode here. It is Wednesday night and we are going to look at some of the best and worst matchups for players, for teams. The giants have the hardest schedule. We talked about that earlier on Wednesday. And I think Malik Neighbors might be, maybe my player I'm most concerned about

Starting point is 00:01:31 based on schedule one, look, we're not gonna make too much of schedule, but Dave, I just was making the case earlier that I think the fact that the Giants have such a hard schedule, if they're struggling, that means Jackson Dart early. And I think that's probably a bad thing. And not only that, I think Malik neighbors has some really,

Starting point is 00:01:48 really tough cornerbacks on his schedule. He gets the Chiefs, he gets the Eagles twice. He gets the Broncos, gets the Bears. I don't know that that'll be too tough. The Packers are a good defense. He gets Christian Gonzalez, gets Minnesota. So, yeah, you're not quite selling me. First of all, how did you determine that they have the toughest schedule?

Starting point is 00:02:09 It's by win percentage. So they have the toughest schedule win percentage last year. So we're assuming that every team is going to have the exact same win percentage. No, I'm not assuming that. But based on win percentage last year, the Giants have the toughest schedule. Look, they're playing the NFC East, which is very good, other than the Giants, and they're playing the AFC West, which is very good. So on paper, I'm sure they will not end up having the toughest schedule. But right now, the Giants have the toughest and the Patriots have the easiest schedule on paper. Okay. I mean, I don't have all the answers. I try and subjectively grade each team's defense. I'm in the process of doing

Starting point is 00:02:48 that now. I'm not going to guarantee that the Giants won't have the worst schedule because of what you said, obviously, they do take on a lot of tough defenses. But I just, it just makes me clench up and get angry when people use old data to try and make points on, on, on future events, like games and stuff like that. Like there are some teams that were terrible last year. They really changed how their personnel looks. And there seems that were really great last year. Their personnel is changing and it's going to be for the worse. Yeah, Dave, I get that.

Starting point is 00:03:22 I'm not ready to, I'm not ready to say ready to say which teams are definitively going to have easy and difficult schedules. We're definitely going to have some clues toward it. The NFC East, the NFC North, and the AFC West. Every team in the NFC East gets that. That's really tough. You've got Packers, Vikings, Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, and then the NFC East, the NFC East teams got a very difficult schedule. Now, what does that mean? They're facing good defenses? Not necessarily, but that's a lot of losses probably for the Giants right now. And that means Jackson D'Arc. I don't want to, well, maybe I don't want to get into the Giants. I do want to, let me read you something, Dave. You always-

Starting point is 00:04:04 Now you don't want to get into the Giants. It's the first podcast in your history where you don't want to, well, maybe I don't want to get into the giants. I do want to, let me read you something, Dave. Now you don't want to get into the giants. It's the first podcast in history where you don't want to get into the giants. There's something you said that we really need to underscore here. And it's, you don't want to make a big deal out of the schedule. And I think for the most part, that's true. Like I know that Jamie and Heath really don't take the schedule into consideration at all. Yeah, because they they wisely understand that defenses change how they play. As the season rolls on, some teams start off slow, they stink. And then it all clicks by October, and then they're off to the races. Some defenses look great on paper. And then they suffer a ton of injuries like the 49ers, for example, and they stink. Some defenses stay healthy all year, but their offenses stink. And they're forced into tough situations, they ultimately give up points. So I like to use the schedule, if anything at all, as a tiebreaker. And also just like things to know, going into

Starting point is 00:05:02 the draft, like which weeks are gonna be the worst for buys. We kind of lucked out this year. I remember last year when we had six teams on buy in week 14 and we were all pulling our hair up because we didn't know how we were gonna like even set a lineup in week 14. And we had playoff berths on the line. It's not that bad this year.

Starting point is 00:05:19 Week eight, won by NATO the entire season. So that's, that's a positive. That's something that fancy managers can look at. And that's, that's a positive. That's something that fantasy managers can look at. And maybe that ends up being a tiebreaker too, for your teams when you're on draft day. The four teams on by in week 14, just before the fantasy playoffs start are the Patriots, Giants, Panthers, and 49ers. Those are the four teams on by in week 14. We do not have any teams on by in week 13, which is probably have any teams on by in week 13, which is probably Thanksgiving week.

Starting point is 00:05:47 Yep. All right. So let me read you something by the way. Dave says to me, make sure your kids read every night, 15 minutes. You never said anything about me reading, but I'm gonna read it to you. This is from cbsports.com.

Starting point is 00:06:00 If you're looking for a surprise playoff contender, one team to watch in 2025 could be the New England Patriots who have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC. The team, okay, I think I may have been mistaken. I said easiest in the NFL. It might just be in the AFC, but I'll continue. The team with the easiest schedule in the AFC has finished with a winning record in seven straight seasons.

Starting point is 00:06:21 So how about that? It's based on last year's win percentages. Yeah. It's based on literally nothing that's happened since the end of last season. But it's not like every team just redrafted. Like it's a dynasty league, Dave. The rosters are pretty similar. Over the past two years. You tell me, you look at that Dolphins defense and you tell me that they're a better defense now than they were last year, especially if Jalen Ramsey is not

Starting point is 00:06:47 on the team. You look at that Buffalo defense from last year, and look at it now and tell me that that's, that's a better defense. The Bills made improvements. They're going to be better this year. The Dolphins are going to be worse. The Dolphins have three pass rushers, and that's it, if they get rid of Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have three pass rushers and that's it. If they get rid of Jalen Ramsey. Yeah, I know. I'm not ready to say that just because a team had a great record last year, they're gonna be great again this year.

Starting point is 00:07:12 If they suck last year, Who is saying that? They're gonna suck even more next year. That's what the strength of schedules suggests if you're using last year's data. It's still, I mean. It's a poor data point. Using, you wanna know what's a better data point?

Starting point is 00:07:23 No. Is usually over under win totals. total. Okay, but the odds makers put out there. That's better information. Because at least that's looking forward, not looking backward. Yeah, no, I get it. So box now. Okay, good. I don't like it. Rinse. I'll rinse your mouth out with your soap box. Yeah, try it. We'll see what happens. All right. So then what's the little bastard? What's that down to you then?

Starting point is 00:07:46 Who are some players or teams that have favorable schedules? So I haven't broken it down team by team necessarily. I'm just gonna tell you a couple of things that stand out to me. One that really stands out to me in a good way is that the Baltimore Ravens have not one but two home stretches, like home stands in

Starting point is 00:08:05 baseball, that make me feel really good about, I don't know, a squad that's got a 30-year-old running back that could use a lot of time off of an airplane. Weeks 5 through 8, they've got the Texans, the Rams, the Bayes, and then the Bears. The Texans are probably the toughest defense of those 3, but that's a nice little span there. And then in weeks 13 through 15, they're against the Jets, the Bengals on Thanksgiving, and then the Steelers. So some tougher defenses there, the Jets and Steelers, not the Bengals. The Bengals are another defense that, man, if they get rid of Trey Hendrickson, they could really suck this year. That makes me feel a little bit better about drafting Derek Henry. Makes me feel better about the Ravens in general, just knowing that they don't have some crazy road trip. They do have three straight on the road, but it's not that bad. It's the Dolphins, the Vikings, it's the Browns. It's weeks 9 through 11. But two

Starting point is 00:09:00 homestands, you almost never see that. In fact, Adam, just overall, you never see as many three-game homestands or three-game road trips as what the NFL threw at us this year. There's a ton of teams that have that. Cincinnati, three of their first four games on the road. The Browns in Week 1, at the Vikings in Week 3, at the Broncos in Week 4. Tough defenses. Tough start. I don't think it, I actually think this is great news for their offense, because their defense, I don't think they're going to be that good. And they're playing against teams, some of them have some pretty good offenses. They're going to force the Bengals to throw, and we should get great starts from guys that were already starting anyway, but it should just embolden you to consider Jamar Chase at No. 1 overall, to take T. Higgins late round 2, to put a circle around Joe Burroughs' name and include him with the elite-tier quarterbacks. You get my

Starting point is 00:09:51 point. Other teams that have interesting schedules. 4 of the first 5 games for Buffalo are at home. 3 consecutively against the Dolphins, Saints and Patriots. We're drafting those guys mostly anyway. How about three straight home games for Tampa Bay against the Cardinals, the Saints and the Falcons in weeks 13 through 15? And then after the Falcons, they've got Carolina on the road and Miami on the road to end the fantasy regular season. So it's Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, unless those defenses, Tampa Bay. So unless those defenses are a lot better than I think they are going to be, this is going to be another strong finish for Bucky Baker, Bevens, Bodwin, maybe even Emeka Buka, anybody that's got to be in their name in Tampa Bay. But it just makes me feel a little bit more emboldened about those guys finishing strong. It's not that I'm gonna send anybody up and down

Starting point is 00:10:46 in my rankings because of the schedule. It's just little things like that that are gonna stick in my head and say, okay, it's just another reason to kind of dig Mike Evans, especially if he slips on draft day. Chris Godwin, especially if he slips on draft day. Could make these guys really great fantasy league winners because their playoff schedule looks good right now.

Starting point is 00:11:05 Well, not just that. I mean, I think you look at the NFC South, the NFC South, not a very good division of defenses. It would, it would appear. So the NFC South is going to have except for Tampa. Yeah. And then like Tampa, I mean, usually you can run, you can't really run on them, but you can throw all over them. Typically. They've had a hard time having a healthy secondary. I do think their pass rush is going to be pretty good. So that's always a factor. But yeah, if their secondary gets banged up again, they just put a first round pick on a receiver. Yeah, the NFC South teams are going to have favorable playoff schedules because they're

Starting point is 00:11:41 going to be playing at least one NFC South team and often times they're going to be playing two. Some teams that I found with good playoff matchups. I like Minnesota down the street because I think you know their passing game should be good against Tampa Bay. But so New Orleans at the Jets at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay for that's Miami. Sorry, that's Miami. Miami, sorry, it's Miami. Minnesota, Washington at Dallas, at the Giants, Detroit. Could be some very high scoring games there. I like the Jets end of season schedule. I do too. Jaguars, Saints, Patriots. Like the Rams last six games.

Starting point is 00:12:15 I did have Tampa Bay on my list as well. Seattle at Atlanta, Colts. Did you have the 49ers on your list? No. Titans at home. Yeah at the Colts home against the Bears and that's all after their buy in week 14. Mm-hmm I looked at Well, how about some bad matchups? But before I go into that any bad matchups that you want to highlight in the fantasy playoffs anywhere

Starting point is 00:12:42 anything at all that stands out to you, So again, I haven't had the chance to find tooth comb it, nor do I know exactly all of the defenses that I think are going to be really, really tough. I just think it's going to be challenging here. Here's one that's interesting. You can give me your opinion on this one. Yeah. In the fantasy playoffs, the commanders have divisional matchups. So I like that.

Starting point is 00:13:02 I don't, the giants have a great pass rush. I'm not sure if they have anything else. The Cowboys, if they keep Micah Parsons, should have a pretty good pass rush, should have a decent defense overall. And the Eagles defense is very good. But just the fact that it's the round two matchups against divisional rivals for Washington, I think that makes that challenging for them. So let's, let's take a quick break and I'm gonna tell you one player that, well, yeah, I'm gonna tell you one player that I really think if there was one guy,

Starting point is 00:13:32 it's based on the hour I spent looking at the schedule, if there was one guy that I'd say, I'm probably not gonna draft him because of the schedule, I'm gonna tell you who it is after this quick break. Discover the magic of BetMGM Casino where the excitement is always on deck. Pull up a seat and check out a wide variety of table games with a live dealer. From roulette to blackjack, watch as a dealer hosts your table game and live chat with them

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Starting point is 00:15:05 Subscribe today for the peace of mind you've been searching for. Public Mobile, different is calling. All right, welcome back. Calvin Ridley is a guy that I think I don't want to draft, and I'm interested in him this year, but thinking Cam Ward wins the job, right? I assume his first four games are at Denver, the Rams at home, the Colts who just got Charvarius Ward, big offseason edition Colts had a terrible defense last year and at Houston. You were talking about Patrick Sertan, you're talking about Charvarius

Starting point is 00:15:37 Ward, you're talking about Derek Stingley and you're talking about the first four and I didn't mention the Rams, like the Rams have a good, probably a very good young defense, right? So the first four games of Cam Ward's career, Denver, Rams, Colts, Houston, two of them on the road, it gets easier after that. But I think you can make a case, don't draft Calvin Ridley, and maybe you look at him as a by-law candidate, I would anticipate him getting off to a slow start

Starting point is 00:16:00 based on their schedule. Yeah, and we're gonna give you more names like this as we move forward. And certainly when I'm done analyzing every defense, uh, I'll, I'll have a list of players that could be slow starters and then you don't, you don't draft them, you trade for them. Uh, I, I think that the problem is that if, if Calvin really gets off to a slow start, it's not like he's taking on a slew of easy defenses the rest of the season. And he's just going to take off after that. And it makes sense that with a rookie quarterback who, you know, is going to have to

Starting point is 00:16:34 learn the NFL game and is going to learn on the fly, that Ridley would get off to a slow start. All those guys in Tennessee are going to get off to a slow start. So I, it's part of the reason why Calvin Ridley was never really like anything more than like a mid round sleeper, somebody that you might maybe target as a number three wide receiver. Here's another probably someone that is better off now. Just put them in your round or your wide receiver for range. There's another one. Let somebody else take it based on what you said. Here's another one. Here we go. Good, give me more. DeAndre Swift. I think it gets a little bit easier after the first two weeks,

Starting point is 00:17:08 but the first two weeks for Swift are against Minnesota and at Detroit. I can see those teams being very good against the run. And if we enter, like if they bring in somebody, right? Cause you know, there's a lot of buzz about Nick Chubb going there. If it's Dobbins,

Starting point is 00:17:22 then I'm just gonna be so concerned to begin with. But if they enter in somewhat of type of a competition, we'll have to see how this works out. If he gets off to a bad start, you know, that's just a, that's just a bad sign. I want to say it was Jamal Williams. Man, I could be wrong about these details. Help me out. But I feel like Aaron Jones had a two game suspension to start a season like six years ago or something. Jamal Williams had a runway to get off to a good start, had two terrible matchups to start the year and did poorly and it worked against him. So I look at this first two games of Minnesota and

Starting point is 00:17:58 at Detroit for Deandre Swift specifically and say that could be trouble. I do however, see the Chicago offense after the Minnesota game at Detroit, Dallas at Las Vegas. I could see them getting off to a nice start. And of course playing at Detroit will be interesting for Ben Johnson in week two. I just think Chicago's going to add somebody and relegate Deandre Swift to being a role player anyway. You know, I love good cornerbacks and I love good cornerbacks that will shadow wide receivers. So the ones that I, you know, the, the, the matchups that I think are tough cornerback matchups, you didn't agree with all of these.

Starting point is 00:18:37 I'm going to, you know, the Jets, I'm going to say they're like a half tough matchup, although they have a new, they have a new defensive coordinator. So maybe they finally have Gardner shadow and they don't have DJ Reid anymore. Right. I forgot who their other starting corner. It's Stevens from Baltimore. He's a good man to man corner and they are absolutely going to play a lot more man. And they've got a good pass rush up front, especially with Quinn and Williams destroying interior offensive lines. You will absolutely see sauce Gardner move away from being a stationary corner playing zone. So jets could be tough. Patriots could be tough

Starting point is 00:19:10 with Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis. Eagles could be tough. Broncos will be tough. Eagles will be tough. Broncos will be tough. Yes. I think the Colts could be like, you know, just if Sharvarius were, he's been a good cover corner. I still think Ligeria Snead could be an elite cornerback. You disagreed with that one. So I put Tennessee on there and Houston. Houston scares me with Stingley and with their pass rush. So with that- Just remember, like it does take those two factors.

Starting point is 00:19:37 Not only do you need an excellent cover corner, but you need a good pass rush to go with it. You might be able to convince me that the Colts pass rush will be good. Well, I don't think you can convince me that the Titans pass rush will be good. I have the Jeffrey Simmons is a beast. I love him. Yeah. But I don't really love what they have around him getting after the quarterback. Well, and I don't know if luxurious need is ever going to be the same after this past season. I hope you're wrong about that. I hope so because I love him as a player. Sure. Yeah, I did too. But here here are some wide

Starting point is 00:20:09 receivers that are facing what I think are tough cornerbacks. I'm start with Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. Because I mentioned I mentioned every team in the AFC South except for Jacksonville. So and not in addition to that, Brian Thomas Juniors at San Francisco, which I don't think will be hard, but he gets Kansas City. Seattle could be tough. Rams could be tough. Chargers had the best scoring defense in the NFL last year.

Starting point is 00:20:32 I don't really buy it. I think it was schedule based. Gets the Jets, gets the Broncos. Brian Thomas Jr. has a pretty bad schedule. The good news is he absolutely torched Houston twice last year. He was great against the Patriots, scored 32.5 fantasy points against the Jets. Yeah. Speed, baby. Neighbors, Eagles twice, Broncos, Chiefs, Chargers at the Bears, Packers at the Patriots.

Starting point is 00:21:01 Minnesota can be tough. I don't know about Dallas, but they could be tough. Neighbors not have a good schedule either in my opinion. Cortland Sutton's got some tough matchups. DK Metcalf has some tough matchups. But actually the two that really stood out were neighbors and Thomas. Does it matter to you at all?

Starting point is 00:21:18 Not as much. I think the bigger concerns with neighbors go beyond the schedule. It's his quarterbacks. It's the offense in general. But I, the flip side to this is simply, do you expect a cornerback to play amazing football for four quarters? Because there's going to be a lot of games where the Giants are trailing. And that's what happened last year. And look at all the targets that Malik neighbors had, and especially from inferior quarterbacks. Now, I'd argue he's got an upgrade in quarterbacks. It's not like, you know, you're not going from Curtis Paine or to Andrew Luck or anything like that. But it's still a timely reference statement. But, but you're, you're still getting an upgrade. I think if you're scared off because of neighbor's schedule, you're kind of missing the point. It's more

Starting point is 00:22:08 about neighbors and all the other issues that are underlying in New York. The fact that he is going to see a lot of tough corners is definitely a factor. I'd like to go back and see how he did against tough corners last year. Well, if you remember the Cleveland game, we were a little like, I don't know if we should start and they torched them in week three. Philadelphia, he was terrible against them.

Starting point is 00:22:29 I don't really think he faced that many, you know, locked down corners last year. I feel like I'm not that worried about it, but if you're gonna call it a potential tiebreaker, then I think people should just know that Malik neighbors on paper, he does have a pretty tough schedule. Now, if you were to tell me that Malik neighbors is going to face,

Starting point is 00:22:48 say you made a list of the 10 toughest cornerbacks in the national football league, and he's going to face, he's going to have 10 games against them. All right, not necessarily facing all of them because like Philadelphia, he'll see Quinian Mitchell twice, something like that. Then that would be something that sticks in my head on neighbors. And it might make me think twice about taking him over Amon Ross St. Brown or Pukka Nakua. Yeah. Well, he is definitely going to face tough ones.

Starting point is 00:23:18 He's going to face Surtan. He's going to face the Eagles twice. And the Eagles don't shadow their receivers. They don't have Darius Slay anymore either, but they have the two young coroners. He's going to face the Eagles twice and the Eagles don't shadow their receivers. They don't have Darius Slay anymore either, but they have the two young corners. He's going to face the Chiefs. I say the Chiefs. I mean, I did earlier. And by the way, I'm Zales.

Starting point is 00:23:33 I don't think the 49ers defense is going to be as good as it was a couple of years ago, but I kind of like their corners. And then they saw Nick Bosa rushing the passer. They've got the, you know,, they got a great slot corner in San Francisco, nor I think there's a chance they move him outside. So I've already studied the 49ers. So if you want my quick notes, their their their cornerbacks, I'll tell you, I mean, they used to be a defense that you kind of feared. I don't

Starting point is 00:24:02 know if you do anymore. They've lost so much. They have lost a lot. Preston Pysh pass rush, like after Nick Bosa, they've got a lot of rookie defensive tackles. I'm not sure how good those guys are going to be. I'm, I don't think they're going to be as good as they once was, but once they once were, but I think they can still be competitive with what they have. Yeah. All right, Dave, I'm ready for this, uh, to wrap up. You good with that? Anything else?

Starting point is 00:24:41 I'm good with it, but I, I intend to deliver a lot more on this subject without looking back at Strength of Schedule last year. Let's, let's put some elbow grease into studying these defenses. The one, especially the ones that change coordinators, Indianapolis is a great example. They've got Lou Anarumo as their Defensive Coordinator. He used to be great with Cincinnati until they bottomed out last year. It's a totally different change. I'm curious how I'll grade them. I know I'll run it past you guys, and you'll tell me if they pass the sniff test or if you disagree. Maybe Jamie and Heath will think that the 49ers defense is total garbage now, and that they'll want to take Rams players and Seahawks players because they're taking on 49ers defense. It's going to be an interesting conversation. But if you believe that matchups are important to fantasy football, then you should believe

Starting point is 00:25:29 that the schedule is important and taking everything is at least a tiebreaker is smart. And the one, maybe one of the biggest takeaways of something that was said on the earlier show today on Wednesday morning, if the giants really do have the hardest schedule in the NFL, you probably want to avoid their running backs. All right. But I think a lot of people were avoiding their running backs anyway. You never know.

Starting point is 00:25:52 All right, thank you everybody for Dave Richard. I'm Adam Azen. Have a great night. We'll talk to you on Thursday morning with the Mailbag.

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Fantasy Football Today - NFL Schedule Release! Best and Worst Matchups, Avoid All Giants? (05/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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