Fantasy Football Today - Nine Bounceback Candidates for 2025! Enjoy These Draft Day Values (01/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 30, 2025

A quick run through the news and notes (2:15) with some offensive coordinator news, and then we reveal nine players who will bounce back in 2025 beginning with Heath's list (10:10)! Why are we sold on Patrick Mahomes getting back to his old form next season? What does Heath expect from Isiah Pacheco and T.J. Hockenson? ... Jamey's bounceback candidates (20:30) are all from the AFC East! We get into the numbers on Jaylen Waddle and why things might be better in 2025. Adam gives three players (31:00) who may not bounce back to an elite level, but could end up being great values in drafts. Is this finally the year that Chris Olave and Trevor Lawrence put it together? ... Email us at [e-mail] Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy  SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey Spotify, this is Javi. My biggest passion is music and it's not just sounds and instruments. It's more than that to me. It's a world full of harmonies with chillers. From streaming to shopping, it's on Prime. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Happy Thursday, everybody. And on this show, that's basically Happy Friday, our last show of the week. But we've got four episodes for you, I think four episodes for you next week, getting ready for the Super Bowl and talking about all different kinds of fantasy topics. We welcome you to Fantasy Football Today,

presented by Bet MGM, the sports book born in Vegas. It is bounce back season, baby. We're talking about bounce back candidates. And we're hoping that Heath, I think Heath should be on soon. So we will get to his, hopefully we'll have nine for you. He texted us that he will be here soon. Oh, great get to his. Hopefully we'll have nine for you. He texted us that he will be here soon. Oh, great.

All right. So we'll have nine for you. Three from all of us. OK. How are you doing, Jamie? I'm doing great. How are you? Good.

Why don't we fire through the news and notes before Heath gets here? There are not many. But we do have two. We do have Darrell Bevel appearing likely to be the Raiders' next offensive coordinator. They're also bringing back their defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham. But yeah, a lot of questions to be answered on the Raiders offense, but Bevel will reunite

with Pete Carroll. He worked for him in Seattle. What are your thoughts on Darrell Bevel going to the Raiders? I'd love to see who the quarterback is. I'd love to see who the running back is. I'd love to see the number one receiver is. I mean, you said it, there's just a lot of question marks here.

So, you know, sometimes when you have a great system in place that can overcome, you know, some deficiencies of the players. I don't know if anybody would say Darrell Bevel has the best system because they were, you know, getting sort of tired of him when he was in Seattle. And then they sort of started cycling. That's when they started cycling through

a variety of different coordinators. But the run game should be productive for the Seahawks if the right pieces are in place. And so is Zameer White going to be the lead running back? Is Encir McCormick going to be the lead running back? You know, they're going to go add somebody there. This is a team that has a lot of question marks. And so let's talk about the players first

before we even worry about Darrell Bevel and what the play calls will be. Hello Heath. What's going on? I have come to a conclusion and I think that you should be the first to know. Okay. I'm rooting for the Chiefs. Wow. Well, that's fantastic news.

Yeah, Chiefs it is. I think the spags over sake one thing makes sense. It was, um, I'll tell you a basketball practice last night. I almost had to extend the practice for an extra 30 minutes for running because my entire seventh grade team is cheering for the Eagles. And when they put their hands in the middle, they all said Eagles instead of our team name at the break down after practice. Um, so well, he didn't object. they all said Eagles instead of our team name at the break down after practice.

Um, so well, he didn't object. So he did. So he has this, uh, this, you know, fun little, I guess tradition with, uh, my aunt for his birthday. She gets him a Jersey for his birthday and he has a Kelsey Jersey. Yeah. I think Kelsey, Kelsey from my home, I wanted to. He may have just gone along with the crowd. That he wore to last year's Super Bowl. But now his little brother is for the Chiefs, his middle brother, they fight a lot. Yeah. It might be just to bother his brother.

So yeah, welcome aboard, Adam. Like historically speaking, over the last 10 years of working so yeah, I'm welcome aboard, Adam. I like historically speaking over the last 10 years of working with you, I know that generally when you decide to cheer for a team that works out great for the team you're cheering for. Uh, so the first time I've rooted for the chiefs over the Eagles at the Superbowl is, uh, I just came in late and I was running a couple of errands this morning is Darrell Bevel is officially the offensive coordinator? Okay.

Like the whole, the whole crew is getting back together though, right? Well, Patrick Graham's the defensive coordinator. That's going to be different. No, I meant Russ. Oh, Tyler Lockett's going to get cut by the Seahawks and go join them. Maybe they'll trade for Metcalfe. We're going to talk about him a little bit later. Uh, the, uh The Philadelphia offensive coordinator,

Kellen Moore seems like the favorite to be the Saints new head coach. They're the only team that still needs a head coach. They haven't hired anyone. So you got to figure there's a reason they're waiting. So we'll talk about the Saints offense in a little bit. Matthew Stafford plans on playing in 2025, but he will likely need a new contract. And I'm going to filibuster here

just to look up where he was after Puka came Puka and Cup came back, where he ranked. But what do you think about Matthew Stafford? Do you see any reason to draft him in a one quarterback league? No. The only way I think you would is if you you know, you, you, like we talked about with Dak Prescott, but a little bit of a lesser degree of I draft Caleb Williams and I want a safe number two quarterback in case that guy fails, you know, so, um, I would anticipate if, if cup is back and anything close to Being better than he was this year. Certainly not a league cup What we saw from Stafford at times from week 8 on was you know 20 plus point potential good weather. So

He's not gonna be horrible. He's not someone you want to target All right. He wasn't even a top 15 quarterback, but not not bad. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game, which was one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, about 16th or 17th per game and six point per passing time. That's for the season. No, that's, no, sorry. That was the last eight games he played,

weeks eight through 17, eight or nine games when Puka and cup came back Right. So the average yeah just under 20 fantasy points and three like awful games in there, right? The Dolphins game was bad. The 49ers game was bad And I think the Jets maybe the Jets game Let's see three awful games. See Jamie's memory. Yep, bat horrible against the Dolphins See Jamie's memory, yep. Horrible against the Dolphins. Very good, actually four,

because his last three games. Ooh, was he bad in the fantasy playoffs? Matthew Stafford scored 25 fantasy points in three fantasy playoff games, at San Francisco, at the Jets, and Arizona. That is horrible, through one touchdown in three games and did not throw for 200 yards in any of them. All right, that's about it. The Jets hired Steve Wilkes as their defensive coordinator. down in three games and did not throw for 200 yards in any of them.

All right, that's about it. The Jets hired Steve Wilkes as their defensive coordinator. That is it for the news and notes. If you haven't signed up for Bet MGM yet, use the bonus code fantasy, and you're gonna get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with Bet MGM. So here's how it works. You download the Bet MGM app,

you sign up and you use the bonus code fantasy, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. So bounce back candidates. I asked everybody for three, including me, and I did it. I did my homework assignment. The good thing on this show is that, you know, and I did it. I did my homework assignment. The good thing on this show is that we're not homers, we're very unbiased, you know? So just with that being said, Heath, three bounce back candidates for you.

Before you go on, just, so we used to, you know, when we had our full length episodes of fantasy football today on CBS Sports HQ, we would do starts and sits. And it was always like a race to see who was going to get in their favorite starts and sits. When I hosted that show, I would always let the guys give their players first to be respectful. Adam, here's what the assignment is.

And here are the three guys I want to talk about before I let you guys choose. So that was very selfish. Second of all, you forgot that Heath was on the show., you sent the email to Dan, they got all excited. He thought he was going to be on the show and then he's like, Oh, sorry, Dan, you're not on the show. It's eats on the show. So you're, you're doing great this week. I did get choices seven through nine in the bounce back player draft. It was not a snake draft. It was just to Adam got one through three. Jamie got four through six. I got seven through nine. Honest answer from you.

Were you gonna choose any of those six? What do you mean? Was I going to choose any of those six when I didn't know anything about what we were going to talk about on the show before you sent me the six? Well, first of all, you had the schedule. So you knew today was bounce back candidates.

But when I said we need three bounce back candidates from everyone, here are the six that Jamie and I have chosen. I'm going to be completely honest. And maybe this is a bad job by me, but I had not scoured the schedule from the previous week and planned out the names that I was going to talk about. But the six that we came up with, were you, would you have used them?

I had not thought about this show in any shape, fashion or form until you sent me that text. I know, but I'm just saying like, oh, I would have used those guys, but now it's going to be someone else. I can guarantee he was not going to say Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, that I know for, I don't think he was going to say my guy, maybe a Lave. But anyway, DK definitely would have been on my list.

I think Breeze Hall and you may just give all your names that you guys put in. No, that's OK. All right. Let's go to your names, your names. Yeah. I mean, Patrick Mahomes, Isaiah Pacheco, TJ Hawkinson. One of these guys is just like, we've seen a couple of down years from Mahomes, but these guys always bounce back to great performances. You should draft Patrick Mahomes as the top five quarterback again next year. Nobody's going to be surprised by that. He averaged 24 fantasy points per game from week 11 on he's hopeful. I mean, for a fantasy manager, you hope the chief's defense just isn't quite as good next year.

And we get a few more pass attempts. Um, but also you hope that Rashi rice and Xavier worthy are both healthy for the majority of the season and Mahomes maybe has his best receiving core ever. I think we thought that coming into this year, it didn't quite pan out because of the rice injury. Pacheco, I was very, very hesitant while he was on IR about anything he was going to produce this year.

We've seen guys suffer this type of injury and nine months later not be quite the same guy with a broken leg. He's not been the same guy. He doesn't, he's not the chief's best running back right now. Kareem Hunt is, but I still think that next year you give him a full off season to fully recovery, recover. Isaiah Pacheco will be a good number two running back for fantasy purposes and the best running back on the chiefs.

Kind of a similar thing with Pacheco and Hawkinson. First year back from an ACL, he was very limited in his production, but I expect we get a fully healthy TJ Hawkinson in 2025. And he is a top six fantasy tight end. TZ… Okay. Mahomes, Pacheco, Hawkinson. Jamie, anything you want to say about these guys as bounce back candidates?

Mahomes finished as the number eight quarter. No, sorry. That was his last nine games. Last nine games, he did average 24.2 fantasy points per game, but shockingly that was only eighth best per game. But overall for the season, Mahomes was QB 11 and he was QB 10 per game, actually 11th per game and four point 10th per game and six points. So that's my homes. But check. Oh, obviously injured all year and Hawkinson injured for half the season. Uh, your thoughts, Jamie. I think my homes is in contention for QB six. I don't know if he'll crack the top five. I think the top five will probably end up barring injuries to receivers, barring holdouts, anything like that. I don't think he's getting drafted ahead of Jackson and Allen.

He's not going to get drafted ahead of Jane Daniels at this point. I don't think he gets drafted ahead of Joe Burrow, and I don't think he gets drafted ahead of Jaylen Hertz. I think six is probably where he'll end up settling. There will be probably some trepidation depending on Kelsey's status, Rice's status. Those are a lot of things at play. The Pacheco call, I totally agree with, but I also think as we've discussed over the last couple of weeks, do they add somebody else, you know, to replace Kareem Hunt, you know,

of a younger variety that could come in and maybe compete for touches with Pacheco? Do they bring back Kareem Hunt on a cheap deal and just try and run things back depending on how things finish? Kareem has worked out for them. And then we have, you know, another headache of headache of you know just because Kareem hunt someone that they trust does he take goal line opportunities does he have you know first and second down opportunities you know so you look and see here what Pacheco did in his first two games he was awesome and then clearly he has not been the same since coming back.

Hockenson I'm totally on board with I think there's you know a lot to like if the quarterback situation is right but you saw what he was able to accomplish. We were talking about this off the air Heath before because Adam was saying, I believe his exact quote was TJ Hawkinson sucks. And then Thomas crapped all over him that Hawkinson did great as Thomas alluded to with Josh Dops. So can he be prominent enough in an offense as to really good wideops, you know, so can he be, you know, prominent enough in an office as to really good wide receivers, one of the best in football, uh, with a rookie quarterback or, you know, maybe Sam Darnold coming back. So there's a lot to love about all three of these guys.

I just think, you know, the, the Pacheco one is could, could kind of sway swing either way. The Hawkinson, I was joking. I said he stinks. He doesn't stink, but, um, yeah, no, my, my concern with Hawkinson is that was joking. I said he stinks. He doesn't stink. But, yeah, no, my concern with Hawkinson is that he is, I don't think he's ever been the third fiddle until this year. He really hasn't played with two good receivers. I mean, he played with Amon Ras Saint Brown, but, you know, like Kaleef Raymond. What was last year? Last year was...

The same guys. Well, last year was 2023. I mean, 2023 was Minnesota. I played with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. And he had a solid year. But there I feel like there weren't a lot of times when all of them were healthy at the same time and Jefferson got hurt. Then Hawkinson got hurt later. Anyway, I remember not being overwhelmed by his numbers when all three of them were healthy, but it is what it is. Yeah, so that's my thing with Hawkinson, but he went as tight, we just did a draft last, or a few weeks ago, he went as tight in 13 in round 10 to Thomas Schaeffer. So I'm sure we like

that value. Here's my question with Mahomes. Why is it different this year than it was a year ago when we called him a bounce back candidate? It is two seasons in a row where he has been a low end number one quarterback. He's been right around 10th per game. And he's two years in a row where the, and I'm the same guy who said yesterday, yesterday, I said, a dot doesn't matter for quarterbacks.

But with him, it's two years in a row of a very low ADOT and just not enough explosive plays. And his first four seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes averaged 14 touchdowns of 20 or more yards. In his last three, I think he has 14 combined. Yeah, he's averaging, yeah, 14 combined in his last three and seven combined in his last two, where he's not throwing the ball downfield. So why are things different now than they were a year ago? Well, one of those three years that you were talking about, he led the NFL in passing yards

and passing touchdowns, through for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns. He had seven touchdowns, seven big touchdowns that year. He's had seven combined in the last two years with the super low eight. I just, I think he's obviously still the best quarterback in the world. Every time he actually needs to go score a touchdown, he does. This was a year where they were never really challenged.

And so I think that the hope is that next year is a little bit more difficult for him. When you say never really challenged. Yeah, they're in one score games every week. Right. But sure. I mean, they lost one game in the last 14 months that they were trying to win. one game in the last 14 months that they were trying to win. They win. Yeah. I think, I mean, I honestly don't know if you agree with this, but I feel like I saw him miss open receivers more this year than ever before. I feel like he just didn't play that well this year. I think part of this look, it's the evolution of how this team

is when he was doing this, he was doing this on a rookie deal with, you know, weapons that were, you know, like he's just said, he may have the best receiving core of his career. You know's gonna be tough to beat I don't care who the third guy is peak Tyree Kill and peak Travis Kelsey I mean that's as good as you get so you know we went into this season and Heath mentioned you know Rice's injury was also Marquise Brown's injury that was part of this you know we thought Marquise Brown was gonna be one of the big pieces of this offense and and rice coming back from what he did a year ago and maybe Kelsey would you know play a little bit more of a Typical role as opposed to what we saw last year until they got to the playoffs

So I think the thing that that evolved with this team is the offensive line has not been as good You know, they've had to mix and match, you know some guys obviously, you know tuning moving to left guard left tackle left guard left tackle The receiving core wasn't as good and then when he got worthy going and Got marquise Brown back on the field even if Brown didn't do very much It was still another element that defenses had to account for and then you see what he's still capable of doing So I don't know if he's ever going to get back to fantasy wise being top three, unless

of course he wants to and Reid wants him to. And they allow him to go out there and throw the ball probably 45 times and then you're going to get these type of numbers again. But to Keith's point, I think in this what you're getting at, they didn't have to have him do that. And so I just don't know if he'll ever get to that again. Like Burrow, I think has to do that on a weekly basis until that team retools the defense completely.

The other guys around Burrow are all runners. Allen's a runner, Jackson's a runner, Hertz is a runner, Danos is a runner. Mahomes is not going to do that until the playoffs. So I think when you start to look at QB6 on, and that's a very, you know, buffet of guys, a big buffet of guys of Baker and golf and Kyler and all these other quarterbacks that we've discussed, like, I would feel more comfortable in the homes over those guys, but I don't think he's going to crack the top five. He won't for me, you know, those other five guys are locked in.

Okay. All right. So that's a Heath's list, my homes, Pacheco and Hawkinson. We're gonna take a break. And when we come back, we'll look at Jamie's list of bounce back candidates. And we, Pacheco and Hockenson. We're going to take a break and when we come back we'll look at Jamie's list of bounce-back candidates and we'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today. Playoff football is here with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the king of sportsbooks gives you the chance to take action to the endzone and celebrate every highlight real play this postseason.

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close to you, please contact Connex Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge. BetMGM operates purs to speak to an advisor free of charge. That MGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Well, I thought maybe no bias in Jamie's list, but it appears that Jamie is just a big AFC East guy from his days growing up as a Dolphins fan. I didn't realize that Lingard Jamie,

who are three bounce back candidates. So much like Heath, I did not look at the schedule much like Keith. I just looked at in my mind I was like, all right, I'll start with the AFC East and then just kind of work my way back And so I was like a breeze Hall. Okay, he was on the bus list last year. We know he was better than that All right, we lost in the AFCs. Oh, yeah, Jalen Waddle. Okay, potential there. I'm like, you know, I've patriots anybody else with Stevenson I'm good All right. All right fair. So so you got a Breeze Hall Jalen Wattle and Ramon Drey Stevenson Go for it. So Breeze Hall is clearly some low-hanging fruit. I mean, you know, he was great two years ago

We drafted him based on average app position as the number two overall player second running back behind Christian McCaffrey and he finished his RB 16 both I think in total points end points per game in PPR so he had a disappointing season but there were obviously some things that you like and clearly if they get things on track here I do think that we'll see probably a little bit more shared work because Braylon Allen deserves to get some touches. If Aaron Rodgers is back, does he have the same touchdown potential? But before the Devontae Adams addition, he was doing a better job from a reception standpoint. We know that's something he could do as good as anybody in the league has showed that coming

back from the ACL tear two years ago. So there's a lot to love about what Brissol still brings to the table. It was a disastrous finish for him. It was disastrous season for the Jets overall. But it wouldn't shock me. I don't know how you guys feel about this. If he's a top five running back again in 2025, he's just got that much upside that much potential. Why don't you go ahead and run through we'll get to Hall again

in a second, but go through Waddell and Stevenson. So Stevenson is a lot to do with what the personnel should be for the Patriots and the system and coaching staff for the Patriots. I mean, you know, Mike Vrabel's got a history of leaning on his run game. Josh McDaniels has gotten great production out of his running backs. Right now, Antonio Gibson, I don't think is a threat to take Ramadre Stevenson off the field on first and second down. We'll see if they bring in somebody else. They could clearly draft somebody. It's a loaded class, but they did give him a big contract extension or significant contract extension prior to last year. And so again, another guy that has shown us the ability to be a good fantasy

option. He's not as talented as Bruce Hall by any stretch, but if they can fix the offensive line, I think Drake May is going to be much better in year two than he was in year one because of the coaching change. And so if Stevenson is the featured back and Josh McDaniel's offense with a guy that has the ability to catch the ball, the backfield, I think he's going to end up being one of the better value picks on traffic. Okay. Uh, well, why did you get to waddle or no? Oh, and then waddle.

I look, he, uh, you know, you, you mentioned this in terms of the things that we learned and, you know, players dealing with injuries, he was banged up in camp, uh, spent a lot of time, you know, dealing with injuries. There was banged up in camp, spent a lot of time dealing with injuries. There's two things with Jalen Waddle again, one would be low hanging fruit. Clearly there's huge bounce back potential if Tyree Kil leaves. We'll all be drafting Jalen Waddle relatively high if Tyree Kil's no longer on the Dolphins. But I don't think he's gonna be as bad as he was this season. He's had two really good years in the NFL in his first two seasons. Last year was extremely disappointing. He

could still be a 15 point per game guy. You know, if they get back to, you know, throwing the ball downfield a little bit more and being more explosive, I think he benefits, you know, more so than John Smith, for example. So based on the cost, I mean, we were drafting this guy back into round two, early round three, he's probably going to be around five pick will be my guess, you know, round four, earliest. I'll buy into that all day with what Jalen waddle still has to offer. Waddle went 39th overall in our half PPR draft. So that is the third pick of round four. Mike Evans was the wide receiver drafted before him. Devante Adams, Cooper Cup. We get to a pretty pretty weird group of wide receivers after that. Adams Cup Cup, Olavi Flowers, this is a big group

where you could really see any order depending on personal preference, including Jalen Waddle, I'd have to say. Heath, do you agree or disagree with Breece Hall, Stevenson and Waddle? So I think Waddle is the one that's easiest to agree with. Even if Tyreek Hill is back, I can't see them going with the same offensive philosophy that they did this past year. I think we'll see more downfield throws. I think we'll see more big plays from Jalen Waddle. And so I think he definitely bounces back, if not all the way to what he was in 2022,

at least what he was on a per game basis in 2023. Um, I, Hall's interesting because like he finished in 2023 as RB two overall, but it was largely because he played 17 games. I think he was RB seven on a per game basis. I just don't, I feel, I think better about Stevenson bouncing back to what he was before last year than I do about Hall bouncing back to what he was before last year than I do about Hull bouncing back to what we expected him to be this year. Maybe I'll feel different after I see who's in charge of the Jets offense and who's playing quarterback for them, but this might just still be a terrible offense. Jalen Waddle was wide receiver 22 per game in 2023 when he had a thousand yards, roughly

a thousand yards, four touchdowns in 14 games. Do you think he bounces back to that wide receiver 22 range or to awesome player, the guy that we were drafting in the second early third round because of what he did in 2022? What's more likely? I believe the 2012. I mean, more likely is obviously the low end number two, but I think that's about my expectation too. Jamie? Somewhere in between. Okay. All right. I mean, I got ready. I'm going to play devil's advocate on all of them. Number one, Bryce Hall. Two years in a row where he has been like Ken Walker, just one of the worst running backs in terms of zero or negative yard carries. Just home runner bust and the home runs haven't come as often.

And then I asked myself with Brice Hall, what is going to get better about his situation next year? I do think that the Devante Adams thing, he was on pace for 96 catches before the Adams. No, sorry. I think that was targets. He was on pace for 96 catches before the Adams. No, sorry. I think that was targets. He was on pace for 74 catches before the Adams trade on pace for 53 catches with Adams. So that's one thing. But what's going to get better about the situation? I don't know. Waddle. He's only had one great year. I mean, he did have a good rookie season. He had so many targets. He had so many catches, but he's only had one standout year. And it was a year where he had a lot of long, big plays. Other than that, the guy never gets targets in the end zone, in the red zone, in the green zone.

It's so low. Same problem that Olavi has, I'm going to talk about soon. And then Stevenson, he might just not be that good and he fumbles a lot. So take that buddy. A great, great devil's advocate on Stevenson. Well, it's true though. I mean, I, you know, what's going to get, things could definitely get better for him. They got a lot of cap space. They can go out and get the best guard, Trey Smith out there.

They could draft an offensive lineman with the fourth overall pick. They could upgrade their offense. They've got a better offensive coordinator probably. So I could see things getting better for him. I just don't know how good he is, but he's a, you know, late-ish round, you know, mid to late round pick.

So it's not like a big gamble or anything. But you know, what do you think about Waddle specifically, Jamie, just, I don't know how he gets back to what he did in 2022, because, you know, Heath, you said they're gonna throw the ball down a few more. I do think that Dave, if he were here, would probably say, Devon Achan has really killed Jalen Waddle's value. And I think there's actually a lot

of validity to that. Yeah, I'm sorry, Jamie, go ahead. My bad. I do think that, you know, we see scenarios like this happen when especially it might be magnified a little bit. You have a very disgruntled Tyree Kill right now. Does he come back in in the good graces of Mike McDaniel and Tua because they couldn't find a trade partner or they really want to make this work? Or do we start to see maybe a little changing of the guard as well where Jalen Waddle gets a little bit more opportunities, you know, to your point about him not getting some red zone touches. I do think he was playing her the majority of the season.

I think that's a big part of that. Yes, certainly Devon Aitchin and John Smith, both guys were a big, you know, detriment to what Jalen Waddle was able to accomplish last year clearly. But let's not forget they missed four games with two at Tungavai Loa. You can factor that into his, you know, his outlook moving forward. I know one thing that he's talked about last year, which I was totally on board with that if Tyreek ever misses time, you know, we saw the game against the Jets two seasons ago and just how great he was. Tyreek played through a wrist injury, he's going to be 31 years old. You know, again, there's the chance of him leaving. So that changes

everything about this conversation. But I just think there's the chance of him leaving. So that changes everything about this conversation. But I just think there's a lot of upsides still with Jalen Waddle and now the cost is a little bit depressed. So you know, 39th overall in an analyst draft with no rookies involved that probably pushes him to, you know, mid forties would be my guess. And that's great value for me. So to your point about Dave, Adam, I think he has been, he was definitely right last year that it happened.

I just think it's a really bad plan and I hope that they saw that. Devon H-Han's been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. 5.6 yards per carry. That's incredible for his career. Even 4.5 last year was good. 6.1 yards per touch, 6.4 yards per target. Those are very good. Jalen Waddle has, each of the last three years, been nine yards per target or better. It's just, it's a, like, we can't have 83 targets going to Jalen Waddle at the expense of throwing the ball more to Devon

Aitchin and getting fewer yards. I hope you're right. All right. Those are some, they want to be more ball control and not, you know, putting their defense and that's what they wanted. Yeah. That's, that's what they wanted last year for sure. Yeah. And it just didn't seem like that worked out very well. Well, I, again, I, I think it may have worked out for them if two of us stayed healthy because they probably go two and two at worst in those four games that he

missed, my guess would have been three and one they played some really crappy Teams in that four game stretch, so you tack on two three wins They're not winning the AFC East, but they're in playoffs Yeah, they could have definitely lost the Buffalo with with that but now you're right and they were they were not a bad team by any means With two. Well, they were offensively during that stretch. They were terrible. Yeah, no, no, I'm saying with Tua. They're horrible without him. Yeah.

All right. Let's go to my bounce back candidates. I've got three of them as well. Two wide receivers and a quarterback. To the surprise of nobody, Trevor Lawrence is on my bounce back list. Chris Olave and DK Metcalf. You could say about Olave, oh, well he got hurt, of course he's gonna bounce back. I'm talking about he's gonna bounce back list, Chris Olavi and DK Metcalf. You could say about Olavi, oh, well, he got hurt.

Of course he's gonna bounce back. I'm talking about, he's gonna bounce back just from what he did in the first five games of the season when he and Derek Carr and Rashid Shahid were all healthy. It really wasn't that good. So I'll start with Trevor Lawrence here. And I just want to point out with Lawrence, like what am I expecting to bounce back to?

Top 15 quarterback, an imaginary thing that we've always thought that he was top 15 quarterback. Realistic you know, could could easily be 12th, but you could see a scenario where he has a great year. Could he be the next Baker Mayfield? There's an obvious comparison here. We've got Liam Cohen. I've been pretty down on Doug Peterson for a while. Trevor Lawrence, here are a few areas where I think he can and will improve. Number one, his A-dot or air yards per pass attempt, second highest in the NFL. Over nine yards, ridiculous.

That needs to come down and it will. I'm not just gonna compare him to Baker Mayfield, but Baker Mayfield had a pretty low A-dot. Why am I, in case you're confused, Liam Cohen was the offensive coordinator and play caller for the Bucks, now he's the head coach for the Jaguars. Yards per carry.

He didn't really run that much less, but he averaged like 2.6 yards per carry, Trevor Lawrence. Very strange. He could get back to being a 20-yard-per-game rusher, about 350 yards per season Trevor Lawrence, very strange. He could get back to being a 20 yard per game rusher, about 350 yards per season. Green zone pass rate. This is something that the Jaguars in his four years have never been all that high in.

They haven't been an aggressive team inside the 10 yard line. They've run the ball a lot. The Bucks were like, had the seventh highest green zone pass rate. Again, I'm not saying it's gonna translate. It's gonna be the same exact play calling, but at least you have something to give you optimism there.

And he's been in his career for whatever reason, Trevor Lawrence has just had a really bad success rate on his end zone throws. Maybe he's bad at it, maybe he is, but he's thrown the ball a lot in the end zone. His completion percentage is horrible. So I'm hoping that the yards per carry come back up and he's more like a 350 yard rusher. If he throws for there were only two

quarterbacks that had 4,000 yards and 350 rushing yards last year. I think he could easily be in that group. He's thrown for 4,000 yards twice in his career and I just think Liam Cohn is gonna bring out the best in him and he's got a wide receiver that's gonna be drafted in the first round in a lot of drafts. Still has good weapons. I think Lawrence is going to be a stream, stream worthy quarterback. Olave went as wide receiver 23 in our latest half PPR mock draft to me. I drafted him 47th overall. I think that's where he belongs. I don't think he's going to be great. Kellen Moore is probably going to be his head coach, it seems. We'll talk about that when it

happens. Is another guy who doesn't get enough red zone or green zone or end zone targets. But that changed for Terry McLaurin. I think Tres Olave is basically Terry McLaurin. Reliable wide receiver. He should be, I think he'll be something like wide receiver 20. And DK Metcalf, I also think will be something like wide receiver 20. He went as wide receiver 32, 63rd overall in our latest half PPR mock draft. Um, he was pretty good the first half of the year before his injury. I don't expect anything from Tyler Lockett at this point. They're going to throw the ball less. They want to run the ball more. I know that, but it's going to be really those

two main guys. As I see it now, JSN and DK Metcalf, he might be second on the team and targets. I still think he can get to 120 targets and be a top 24 wide receiver. He'll be a good value if he makes it to round six. Bam. That's like the least inspiring group of bounce backs I've ever seen in my entire life. Like these guys are going to be low end starters or high end bench players for you. Get excited people. I see that and I will say this when I sent the email with the names, Lawrence, I wasn't gonna make the case for Lawrence, it's like a top five guy, but Olavi and Metcalf, I was like a little disappointed when I did the research and what

I felt their upside could be because Because Metcalf has only been great when he has had great quarterback play and he's not going to have great quarterback play in my opinion. And he's probably going to be second on the team in targets. Olave again, I just think he needs better targets. But I do think like one thing I think is going to change for Olave, I don't think he's going to be out-target by Rashid Shahid. And that was the case in the first five games of the season when everyone was healthy. That's going to change. Rashid Shahid's target rate was way too high for a guy who had an A-dot over 17 yards. But yeah, I think they could be good values that people overlook because they're not exciting, especially Olavi and

Metcalf. The shine has worn off. And honestly, you look at a guy like Terry McLaurin and you see the talent that he had and you couldn't predict that he was going to have this kind of season. But you could say with a LaVey and Metcalf that they have a pretty good floor as a reliable number two wide receiver. And maybe they will have that surprising McLaurin-like season because they are super talented players. It could happen for them. So for example, he went after Cooper Cup, Chris Olavi. There's no chance I'd take Cooper Cup ahead of Chris Olavi.

I'd probably take Metcalf over Cooper Cup at this point. And they went like 12 spots apart in wide. Yeah, that's easy, I think, for most people to make that choice. It is funny that you have Olavi and Metcalf because one is losing Kubiak and one is gaining Kubiak. I do think that there's still a lot of upside with these guys. You know, a lot of a clearly was drafted last year as somebody that we thought was going to have the ability to have a breakout season. The one thing that I think is different with the McLaren comparison in is McLaurin got a quarterback change. These two guys are not getting quarterback changes.

So they're still stuck with Derek Carr and Geno Smith respectively. And as you just alluded to, Metcalf has not been great with subpar quarterback play. So can Metcalf, or excuse me, can Geno Smith get back to what he showed in his first season as the starter in Seattle, which was still a very good year for Metcalf.

It was before JSN ascended to the level that he's at right now. I don't think Olavi is going to lose targets significantly to Rashid Shahid. Their receiving core is abysmal right now. So there's a lot to like still about Olavi's situation and Metcalf's situation, I think, based on the cost. The thing about Lawrence is he's probably, we started the show about Matthew Stafford, you know, Matthew Stafford and I wonder where, you know, those two guys will come out in comparison to each other based on how people draft. My guess is more people will lean toward Lawrence because we'll get a lot of offseason hype again because Cohen there, Brian Thomas and Lawrence were never really on the same page. I hope that that's something that materializes because all of

Brian Thomas's best games came with Mac Jones. Will Evan Ingram stay? Will Christian Kirk stay? You know, you mentioned the receiving court there. So there's some things that could be in flux. So these guys all do qualify. I'll be a little bit more positive than Heath was as bounce back guys. I'm much more interested in the receivers than Lawrence, but I can certainly see myself, you know, if I have a deep enough bench, you know, we're in the six plus bench, you know, formats, that if I want to take a second quarterback with upside, and I like my starter, you know, so it's a throwaway pick, essentially, that Lawrence could certainly be one of those guys that if he hits, he could

still hit big, but that's just, we're running out of time for him to, you know, prove that. Sorry, Heath, before you jump in, I got to go to break. So quick commercial break. And then Heath will talk about Lawrence, Solave, Metcalf, whoever he wants to talk about. And then we'll read a couple of emails at fantasy football at cbsi.com. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. All right, we're back. Heath, tear it apart. No, I don't want to tear it apart. I'll just say that like, if you don't count the game that where he got hurt, Trevor Lawrence basically averaged 18 fantasy points per game last year, which was QB 19. He had his highest yards per attempt of his career last year. He had his second highest touchdown

rate of his career last year. I just like, I think you were, we're, we're using him balancing back to, he just kind of was what he has been last year. So yeah, I'm hoping he can bounce back to 2022 when he was 12th per game, 11th per game. He had 4,100 yards, 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and he had 291 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. He's been pretty good with rushing touchdowns, probably based on his last three seasons, probably get about four rushing touchdowns. So I'm hoping he can bounce back to 2022. He was number seven quarterback overall, number 11 per game.

But also I talked about lessons learned. One of the lessons learned that I said yesterday was we don't really, we're not great at evaluating players because it's situations and coaches and talent around them matter so much and he's had a really bad offensive line and it's possible he's had a bad coach so I do think he's got the potential to be the next Baker Mayfield or the next Sam Darnold I'm sorry I'm not giving up on Trevor Lawrence yet I think if he has right now I'm thinking that he's a top 15 ish quarterback, but I still think he could be that big surprise and have a huge year.

I, I mean, good. If anybody has all 22, watch the first touchdown catch of the year that Brian Thomas had week one against the dolphins. This is one of the most underrated throws that I've seen all season. Unbelievable. This guy is so talented, just has to put it together. You can, I understand you can laugh at me. I've been on this hill for three years, so. No, I'm not, I'm not laughing at you. I just like, we all have guys that I think it's okay to do that.

Like. So they're all laughing. That's the nice thing. Like people, a quarterback's terrible as a rookie. You can just cite Josh Allen. Yeah. But quarterbacks throws 2000 passes in the NFL and shows himself to be average. You can just say Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold turned out to be good in good situations.

So I think it's fine. I'm not going to laugh at you anymore. I think Olave is a good, like he only, he was like nine fantasy points per game last year. That's a very good bounce back candidate. He'll probably be a low end number two again. I don't know what to expect in the Seattle situation because I do think. We're like, as you've talked about, we're going to get a more run heavy offense.

And so it really is going to be a battle between DK and JSN. Cause I don't think the number two wide receiver in this offense is going, unless they have a Rashid Shahid type impact where it's just a bunch of big plays. I don't know that the number two wide receiver is going to be that good. I also don't think we saw the best of Kings, not Kings, Kubiak's offense, just because you had Carr getting injured, you a lot of a getting injured you had Shahid getting injured, you know, it was just a mess all across the board At different times, but a lot of you know, you know big big time, you know misses for for several players. So

It's certainly it's certainly there's there's still potential for these guys. They're just they're very talented receivers You know, that's the thing. And so I didn't really agree with your sentiment that the shine is off these guys. They're still, I think, a lot of people that will be interested in them at the right cost. Well, look, I don't have much to base it on. I couldn't get the results. I don't know if you can get them. The results of the PPR mock draft we did, You have to renew the league because I got locked out. But the half PPR mock draft the stories published on the website

and I don't know how far Olafi would have fallen. I took him 47th and then Metcalf went 63rd. I think I said he went round six. So that seems unreal. I have absolutely no idea. It doesn't seem that unrealistic to me honestly.. Well, if you're saying that that Cooper Cup went two rounds ahead of him. Of Matt Caff, yeah. That's unrealistic. One pick ahead of Olavi. One or two picks ahead of Olavi. Can you get the PPR results or no? Probably not. All right. See if you can. I'm going to read some emails. fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. All right, see if you can. I'm gonna read some emails. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com.

This is from, ooh, I don't have a name on this one, sorry. Hey, Manny, Moe and Jack. Manny Moe, no, just kidding. This is the Pep Boys. I just picked up in, right? You know, remember the Pep Boys with those big heads? Yeah, I picked up an orphan dynasty team and I've been- Oh, good.

I've been playing fit. Really? Hoping that the day before we do a mail bag that I've been advertising all month long, that you would just read the dynasty questions we have in the email. Are you using this one? Yes. Oh, skip it. Watch the dynasty show tomorrow. Sorry about that. All right. Then we got this email from Scott. Last year, our rookie draft, after our rookie draft, I traded Lad McConkey, which was my 10th pick. Oh, you're using this one too?

Emails tomorrow. See you guys. I can send out a Twitter request for dynasty questions. I just searched through our emails and looked for the questions that were about dynasty and thought that I would use them for the dynasty mailbag tomorrow. That's okay. I didn't think you got all of those emails. Well, I had to search for them.

They don't just show up in my inbox regularly. Oh, okay. So just to recap today, Heath did not know we were talking about bounce backs until you sent him an email yesterday. You did not know we were talking about bounce backs until you sent an email yesterday You did not know that he was doing a dynasty mailbag show tomorrow and stole all his dynasty email questions Correct. Yeah, I actually think I did know that yeah I told him I I mentioned it on this show on Tuesday or Monday when he asked me what's going on with FFT dynasty this week

Man, Jamie, why can't we get the results of this draft? I'm so curious. Oh. All right. Well, how you guys, what are you guys up to this weekend? A lot of sports. A lot of kids sports. No basketball for me this weekend. No basketball. I have one child traveling with my wife. They're going away.

Going to Philly to celebrate the Eagles. I'm just going to look at, sorry, I don't care what you guys are saying. I was just looking at other rankings. Yeah. I'm looking at Mike Clay's rankings for 2025 from ESPN. He has DK Metcalf as wide receiver 27 and Chris Olave as wide receiver 28. See looking at fantasy pros right now they have Olave as wide receiver 35 and Metcalf

as wide receiver 24. Okay. So three of those four are pretty much in range with your expectations right? Like 27 is basically a low and number two wide receiver. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, all right. I think they'd be good value. They're going like on Mike Clay's rankings. They're right ahead of Jerry, Judy, Jameson Williams, Roma, do and say, Jalen wattle. I'd rather have wattle. Yeah. Um, at least we didn't have construction going on in today's show. Dan Schneier sitting in a construction zone yesterday. Oh, all right. Listen, I gotta go. This has been fun. I gotta go. Great emails. Good job. I'm doing a dynasty mailbag in five minutes if anybody wants that. You guys should do it. Adam, I think you should go on the show with Heath and do the mailbag with him. That's fine. I will. Fantastic. Oh, what time?

11.30. Same time we do FFT dynasty every day. I think that's okay. I have a lot going on tomorrow. I'm not sure I could commit to this. Yeah. I would love to see what you're a lot going on. I have the plumber coming between eight and 10, the exterminator between nine

and 12 and a contractor coming sometime around then too. So it's really out of my hands. Yeah. Busy day. Construction zone. Yeah. There we go. All right.

We'll talk to you all tomorrow on Dynasty and we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today. See ya. on Monday on Fantasy Propulsion ACN.