Fantasy Football Today - Our Consensus Top 12 Revealed! (06/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 24, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Ready for Round 1 of your drafts? We reveal our Top 12 in PPR consensus rankings after some stats about Justin Jefferson (2:42), CeeDee Lamb (4:40) and Amon-Ra St. Brown. We've got to talk about touchdown upside for these elite wide receivers, and we wonder if St. Brown can eclipse the 10 TDs he had in 2023? ... Is Christian McCaffrey the easy pick first overall (10:50)? Is there a right answer at WR1 (17:15)? How much should your potential Round 2 picks influence your Round 1 selection (19:15)? After we answer those questions, we reveal our Top 12 starting with McCaffrey and then getting into the top WRs (26:35) and when to take the second running back (36:05) ... We obviously talk a lot about Jefferson's quarterback situation. We also get into Ja'Marr Chase's upside (47:05) and who to draft late in the first round (49:30) after the consensus Top 8 players are off the board. How risky are Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor? ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are looking at the top 12 players in our consensus rankings in PPR leagues. We welcome you to a Monday edition of Fantasy Football Today. We've got a lot of vacation going on right now. Heath's on vacation. I am going on vacation at the end of this week,

but I'm not missing any shows. Jamie is going on vacation next week. Dave is sick. So Dan Schneier's here with Jamie. Hey, Dan. What's going on, guys? Did you hear that little humble brag in there, Jamie? Adam's like, he's going on vacation.

Dave's going on vacation. I'm going on vacation, but I'm not missing any shows. Jamie's going on vacation. Dave's going on vacation. I'm going on vacation, but I'm not missing any shows. Jamie's going on vacation. I kind of want to miss this. He's altering all of our schedules to accommodate his. So, yeah, but then make sure he could tell everyone, yes, I'm not missing any shows. I walk on my vacation. You know what?

I'm taking Monday off. I don't care if Jamie's not here. I'm taking next Monday off. I'm just letting everyone know now. So, yeah're gonna look at the top 12 ink does anybody know the top 12 consensus uh yeah go ahead jamie let's see if you know a consensus not yours consensus will be uh christian mccatt in order yeah oh i don't know in order. I'm trying. McCaffrey. Lamb. Yeah.

Hill. Yeah. Hall. Yeah. Wow. Jefferson. Yeah. Chase.

Yeah. I forgot to cue up the wrong buzzer. What was wrong? Bijan is six. Bijan is six. Bijan is six. I was going to say that. So Bijan, Jefferson. I'm sorry, Bijan, Chase. Yeah.

St. Brown. Yep. Hmm, gets tough. AJ Brown. Yes. We need three more. Wilson. Who?

Wilson. Oh, Gibbs. Who? Wilson. Oh, Gibbs? Yep. Wilson. Gibbs. He just loves that buzzer. Taylor. Wilson.

Wilson, yeah. Again, here it is. McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill, Brees Hall, Justin Jefferson, B. John Robinson, Jamar Chase, Amon Ross, Nate Brown, A.J. Brown, Jameer Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, Garrett Wilson. A lot of personal preference there. You know, how do you decide? Do I go with a wide receiver? Do I go with Brees Hall?

I'd have some questions for you. But first, I have two segments. One is called, want to hear a dumb stat? I thought that's what we refer to every A's or stats. Here's a dumb stat. In four seasons, Justin Jefferson has averaged 16.9, 19.5, 21.5, and 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game. It's even better than that if you remove some partial games. But in the four fantasy championships that he has played in, Justin Jefferson has averaged 9.9 PPR fantasy points per game. He has never scored more than 14.5 PPR points

in a fantasy championship. He stinks. Don't draft him. Kirk Cousins missed two of those four games, by the way. What did you say? Cousins? He missed two of those four games in the championship. This dump stat was perfect for my friends from home, Steve Hall and Mike Denver. Quick shout out who lost. Going into the championship

game with a lead with Justin Jefferson against Jaden Reed last year. What a devastating way to go down. It's so bad. They were out by the second quarter. Reed had scored two touchdowns already. And Jefferson was pretty great with Nick Mullins. Against Detroit he was, but not against good teams.

Not against Green Bay. Which is why I'm going to say Schaefer will come out here and say, oh, he's a quarterback proof. Just prepare, just prepare. I mean, he averaged over 20 PPR points with Mullens. Two games against Detroit. There he is. Jaren Hall started the Packer game,

so I don't know what you're talking about, Dan. I didn't say he didn't start the Packer game, so I don't know what you're talking about, Dan. I didn't say he didn't start the Packer game. You said not with Green Bay. Yeah, no. Adam screwed this whole thing up because I knew that Mullins was not playing with Jefferson in that Green Bay game. He was.

He played the second half. I don't know how it got contorted to the point. I just meant he didn't score a lot in that Green Bay game. And he played the second half with Mullins. All right. Anyway, we'll get to that. We've got to talk about if Jefferson is quarterback proof. Do you want to hear a less dumb stat?

Yes. Okay, good. CeeDee Lamb had 23 end zone targets last year. That was second most in the NFL behind Calvin Ridley. 23 end zone targets for Lamb last year. In his three-year career, Amandra St. Brown has 13 end zone targets. 10 fewer than Lamb had last year alone. About that.

In those three years, St. Brown has 13.5% of his team's end zone targets. Last year, Lamb had 34.3% of his team's end zone targets. It might just come down to touchdowns. I mean, St. Brown was pretty good. He had 10 last year. I still think there's room for more because he gets a lot of green zone targets, and they could throw more touchdowns, but, you know, could come down to touchdowns when you're trying to decide

between the top five wide receivers. Do you think that he'll score more touchdowns? It's hard to project him for more than 10 when he has such a low ADOT, doesn't make big plays. But when I go back with him and Laporta, is that they've thrown basically 30 touchdowns each of the last two years, the Lions, which is good. Very good.

30, 29, I think, and 30. They've rushed for 27 and 23 touchdowns. Yeah, that's the thing. Why do you see that changing? It's just a lot. Or do you see that changing? No, it's just a lot. I mean, what if it's 35 touchdowns passing

and 20 rushing touchdowns or something like that? What if he scores two more receiving touchdowns, gets to 12? Then we're talking about wide receiver one potential, I think. Oh, I mean, look, he's in the conversation. I think you know, I wrote this for the magazine. I'm sure it'll be on the site at some point soon. The elite eight wide receivers based on our consensus rankings. And again, you can make the case that it's nine, 10, 12 guys,

however deep you want to go. But based on our consensus rankings, there's eight guys that I think are gonna be in contention for the top 12. And the one that was missing was Puka Nakua of the list that we showed previously. But when you get really to the top five, I think that's kind of where the, the number one conversation comes in and that's Lamb, Hill, Jefferson, Chase, St. Brown. That's the order for me. Um, our average draft position right now has

St. Brown, I believe third, uh, ahead of Jefferson and, and Chase certainly ahead of, uh, Chase he's, he's either four, three or four, excuse me if I'm getting that wrong. So people clearly are in the St. Brown camp, and understandably so. He's been a stud in the last three seasons, continuing to get better every year. But I do think that you're right. I think it's the touchdowns that will probably sway him, which says a lot because Jefferson has not exactly been a consistent double-digit touchdown guy. Never. He's never had it, right?

He's never had one? I think he had nine receiving and one rushing touchdown guy. Never. He's never had it, right? He's never had one? I think he had nine receiving and one rushing, maybe. Okay. But I don't think he's ever had 10, Justin Jefferson, 10 receiving touchdowns, which is just, that one doesn't really make any sense to me.

I kind of get it with Amon Ross St. Brown. And I also, oh, no, no, I'm sorry. 10 is his career high. He had 10. He had 11 total in 2021. He had one rushing touchdown and 10 receiving. But even that, doesn't that feel low? 10 touchdowns on 167 targets in 2021. And he goes for 1,800 yards in 2022 and scores only eight touchdowns.

And I was like, was it a Hawkinson thing? And no, it hasn't been a Hawkinson thing. He hasn't really been a big touchdown scorer. They've thrown a lot of touchdowns. They've spread it around quite a bit in Minnesota. All right. And we've got a magazine coming out.

Dan, can you give us some details? Well, the Fantasy Football Today magazine will be out this summer in stores. There are no finalized details yet on the date where it will be released. We're still in the back end editing, proofing. But Fantasy Football Today magazine,

annual fun magazine to check out. We have some really good features this year in it from jamie he mentioned one of his and also from dave heath and also myself i got to write a little bit this year adam though you know we were looking for some contributions to that 15 magazine but he didn't he didn't step up no no he's in there you've never asked uh with what is three bowl prediction no he has a breakdown of his team in the pick by pick his two teams in the pick by picks oh yes a nice he has a breakdown of his team in the mock draft i'm sorry let me amend that adam contributed about 300 of the 30 000 words to this f15 magazine i you know what i could have written an article about ranking the top five wide receivers. I feel like very comfortable doing that right now.

I feel like good about it. Well, that was Jamie's idea and that was not your idea. You need to come up with your own original idea. And then. Okay, I got an idea. I got a bold prediction for you. Bijan will be number one. Laugh it off.

But I also have Caleb Williams breaking two records. What were your bold predictions adam is it by the way adam's 2022 if you check back in that 50 summer magazine at 2023 you're not going to see pretty bold predictions across the board but adams take the cake i had jameer gives us a top five running back that wasn't bad it was the one thing that came somewhat close if you got one out of three in that group from what we predicted. I know, I know. We had a rough year, but it's bold predictions for a reason.

Yeah, exactly. I feel like I was pretty bold. All right, I got a few intro questions for you as we look at the top 12. We're going to do that right after a quick commercial break on Fantasy Football today. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer

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be automatically sent to your matches then sit back and let your matches start the chat download bumble and try it for yourself looking at some early average draft position on cbsports.com christian mcafree is number one and he is number one in the consensus rankings in full PPR. Last year, McCaffrey averaged 24.7 PPR fantasy points per game. In comparison, CeeDee Lamb averaged 23.8 PPR fantasy points per game last season. In his last 12 games, Lamb averaged 27.7. That would have been, I think, if he had done that over a full season, I think the best wide receiver season ever.

Better than anything we've seen in a long, long time, that's for sure. But McCaffrey is number one. Jamie, is Christian McCaffrey easily 101? I don't think anybody's easily 101 anymore. Especially when you're talking about what's happened to that spot, and now you have the Madden curse

on top of it. He's a running back in his late 20s that's coming off a year with a lot of work. And so, look, I think there's going to be some people who are a little bit skittish. But when you talk about when he is healthy, when he is right, when he is doing the things that he's done in San Francisco, which he has the ability to do once again, it's hard to overlook that, especially at that position. So, you know, I think it comes down to what your comfort level is with taking running back still in the first round, because there are people I think that are definitely just completely getting away from it.

And then it comes down to, you know, can you trust the player to produce at this level year over year again at that position? Because it's been hard to do. So I get it, but I would still take him first overall with the understanding of if he plays to his level, if he stays on the field, it's hard to match what he does in this offense. How about you, Danny? Do you think it's easy? Yeah, I think it's easy, really easy. And I think I understand Jamie's point. And it was only like two years ago where we were like there were people in the fantasy community like I will never draft Christian McCaffrey again.

He's injured every year. So it's like I'm pretty sure Dave, I'm not picking on David. I'm pretty sure Dave said that when there'm not picking on Dave, but I'm pretty sure Dave said that. There were people who were very strong against him. It's not like that just went away because he was a little healthy for the last two years. He's even battled some injuries. It comes down first to me. In fantasy, it's all about, in my mind at least, our game is all about volume and then just touchdowns.

While touchdowns can regress and be a little bit luck-based, we were at the point last year with McCaffrey where if you went to a sports book, it was like minus money to bet on him scoring a touchdown this week. You had to lay odds. And it worked. Every week he scored a touchdown. And so I feel like to me it's like the usage in the red zone that really sells me the most. I don't think anyone has his kind of usage in the red zone. In all of fantasy, I'm hoping Bijan Robinson has that this year, and I think he might, which is kind of why.

And I'm talking about in the passing game, in the run game, as the focal point of the red zone. So I think he might be RB1, but I don't think anyone really could potentially match it, even Brees Hall to an extent with Rodgers there. So that's probably what it is for me. It's the red zone usage. I think also, Adam, this comes down to,

and this is kind of the gen genesis of you know the magazine story that I wrote there's really not a I think clear-cut who's the best receiver because people are in the lamb camp understandably so but you know you brought this up can you do it again or was last year kind of a fluke and really it was a 10 game sample size that we saw from him from there by week on is Tyreek Hill still that guy you know he's got three or four years over 20 and a half PPR points but but 30 years old. Do you want to take one of the other running backs? You know, there's some questions there, but I think it really comes down to,

you know, if there was like, if Justin Jefferson still had Kirk cousins coming back, I think he would be the easy number one receiver. Yep. And there may be some discussion because he was number one at this spot last year. But I think with the uncertainty at the receiver spot, it just feels like McCaffrey, higher ceiling,

and I agree with Dan, higher ceiling than Brees Hall, higher ceiling than B. John Robinson right now. That may change by the end of the year because, again, of age and workload. But McCaffrey just feels like the easy choice to go first overall. Yeah, we've only done, I think, one real draft that we're playing out, and I had the first pick.

I took McCaffrey. I would have taken Jefferson if Cousins were his quarterback, because I think you've got a 28-year-old running back who just had 417 touches, and I also think that's, you know, not 400 carries, thankfully. A lot of it was catches, but he had a lot of carries. Probably had

like 350 or so. No, not that many. 330, I don't know. But, you know. With the catches, yeah. That would have been something we definitely were talking about back in the day. An older running back

making a Super Bowl run. We would have been worried about that, you know. We don't talk about that Oh, I think there's reasons to be worried about it. I don't think anybody's overlooking that.

You know, we might not be harping on it as much as we have in years past. But there's definitely, again, cause for concern with him. You know, and look, the 49ers have a track record of drafting running backs, but they did draft another guy, you know, who knows what that means. They want to give a little bit more work to the backups to make sure they know they're going to be in post-season contention if they stay healthy. So does that mean a little bit more of, you know,

load management, you know, to use the NBA phrase to try and make sure McCaffrey's ready by, you know, not ready, but, you know, add his best in, in, you know, late November, December and, you know, making that January postseason run. We could certainly see that, you know, we could see, remember when Mitchell was healthy, they were giving Mitchell carries. Yeah. I want to add, I just want to have one more note on this. I think part of this could be exactly what Jamie just said at the end. Like how comfortable were the 49ers with an injured Mitchell last year and how

more, how much more comfortable will they be if he's healthy using him? Because he was a weapon for them even before McCaffrey got there. And that's kind of like last past two years, I was in on the McCaffrey bidding for, for my auction drafts. Didn't get him year before I got him, but this year is not going to be a player that I'm in the bidding on for. And I think that's the main reason for me i think a healthy mitchell changes how they go about their business there and how many touches the backups are going to get if it's

mitchell versus some of the backups they had in last year like there's a night and day difference between a healthy mitchell and what they're going to get if they put them on the field versus some of those guys they had in last year but again it might not be mitchell you know they they've drafted you know isa Isaac Arendo and for what it's worth they bring in Patrick Taylor from Green Bay it's probably somebody that they're going to kick the tires on and see if he has any you know special teams role for them but you know bringing in two more guys I think that speaks the way you're talking about Dan Jordan Mason may not be that option that they were you know hoping to get some production out of but it wouldn't

surprise me if they manage Christian McCaffrey a little bit differently just to make sure that he's not having any sort of injury concerns. Yeah, look, I'd be fine with that. I'd be fine with them giving him a little bit less work as long as he didn't lose that red zone work and the passing game work. I mean, if it's four carries a game or something like that, fewer, it's not really going to bother me. I'd like for them to keep him healthy. I still think he could be the best player in fantasy

even if he has fewer carries. He's definitely going to be RB1 in most drafts. Here's my second question, though. Is there a right answer for wide receiver one? Is there a right answer for wide receiver one? No. I mean, you can make strong arguments. Again, this was the magazine story.

You can make strong arguments for, in my mind, five guys. But if you want to extend it like i said there's eight guys but those first five guys between lamb hill jefferson chase and saint brown there's the upside the numbers the offense the systems you know everything that that they're taking part in to be the number one guy the biggest question is probably jefferson just because of who's throwing him the ball you know but it's hard to you know expect a significant downturn in targets. Like if they had really addressed the running game and not just bring in a 29 year old Aaron Jones or soon to be 29 year old Aaron Jones, then I'd be a little bit more concerned, you know, but after talking

to Kevin O'Connell and listening to everything that he said, you know, since the draft, because I spoke to him before the draft at the owner's meetings, they're not going to change their offense, you know? So whether it's Darnold or McCarthy, I think a lot of people hope it's McCarthy, they're still going to throw the ball a ton. And now you have an offense that's probably down TJ Hawkinson to start the season. Who knows how long he'll be out? That's just more concentrated targets for Jefferson and hopefully for Addison too. But Jefferson should still be that guy. The contract certainly suggests that. I don't think they're going to pay him that much money and say, okay, now we're going to change how we, we, we operate. Um, so yeah, I think all five of those guys have the chance to

be the number one receiver. I think just the easy choice right now is lamb in his prime, maybe still chasing the deal. Quarterback is locked in. Uh, I thought McCarthy, when I asked him the question, you'll see these quotes in the magazine. He said, you know, you, you get to the point where I'm paraphrasing here, where the quarterback wide receiver combination matters. And he said that this was his words, Dak and CD are in that realm right now, you know, where, where they're just that, that duo of what you see great, you know, he he'll obviously call him a great quarterback, but you know, good quarterback, good wide receiver, those guys clicking. And that's where those two are right now. Okay. Let's go to my third question here. How much do you care about round two when you're

making your round one picks specifically, I think more early, like first half of the round. I'm going to let Dan go first. I know Jamie's talked about this a lot, but Dan, how much do you care about round two when you're making your round one picks? It definitely matters a lot. And I think part of what Jamie was discussing, I feel like he's right. Like, I don't know how to feel confident about any of those guys as the definite wide receiver one, but I do feel very confident that they're in kind of their own tier. And that's the problem I have now.

I'm willing to put Garrett Wilson in that out of hope. But after I get past the Wilson part of this thing, I start to falter a little bit. Like, do I have some hope for Marvin Harrison jr? Sure. But I think it's been a little inflated there. And then once you get past that, now you're really into a realm of potentially not even massive target getters or big quarterback problems. We don't even know how to predict the targets for some of those players that we think are getting a lot of targets. So based on that, I am more likely to go wide receiver in round one. And I want to be in position in that first half of the first round. If I'm picking snake to get, cause I know there I can get one of those wide receivers. Now I can still get Garrett Wilson later. I guess Puku, I'm not as high on, but I can still get him later, but I really want to get

one of those big guys that Jamie mentioned those five. And that will allow me to not feel as pressed in the second round. I'm not going to reach anyway for wide receiver, just to get a wide receiver in round two. I may go Kelsey or something like that in the back end, but I don't want to start my draft running back running back ever. I know that. And I also don't want to be a position where the best player on my board in round one was running back. So I went with it because that's the move. And the same thing happens in round two, where the best player on my board is running back. Cause that's not, that doesn't work with my anti-fragile type building. I don't like that style of building building i don't want to be investing my major assets at running back ever in fantasy football but you got to take best player available and this year it's a weird year because there's

not a lot of best player available wide receivers in that back half or around too so if if you like to set up your draft not necessarily all the way through but you could you could kind of plan out your first couple picks, especially when you start to see ADP, when you start to do some mock drafts, you know, you study mock drafts, you know, so you start to see how it all unfolds. And so really the question is,

assuming you are somewhere between picks two and six, right? Am I getting that right? Two and six. Do you want to take a chance on Brees Hall or B. John Robinson? And if you map out round two, and I think Dan laid this out, if you map out round two, if you don't love, I don't even think Harrison's going to get there. If you don't love Chris Olave, Drake London, Devontae Adams, Mike Evans,

Nico Collins, Michael Pittman, Brandon Ayuk, Debo Samuel. That's the group. That's the group of receivers that you're picking from. You might be able to get two of those guys, which is Jalen Waddle. You might be able to get two of those guys. It's fine. It's not a bad strategy. But you've got to commit to those two.

On the flip side of that is if you take one of those top five wide receivers, whatever order falls in your lap, coming back to you in round two you're looking at the group of travis etn most likely now you may get jonathan taylor jameer gives falling but i don't think so or barkley or kairan but i'm gonna i'm gonna start with running back eight travis etn isaiah pacheco james cook derrick henry rashad white you know you know, again, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, whoever you want. That doesn't feel great. None of them are better than that white. Right.

It's like they're both. But again, it's it's how I'm taking Travis Kelsey in that range. And that's why I'm saying, you know, you have to map it out. And so if you feel more comfortable with those running backs, which I do personally, then the uncertainty of some of those receivers on top of the fact, like that group of receivers that I just named you, one of them will be there in round three. Now, again, you can say, okay, maybe one of those running backs will be there in round three as well also, but I just don't see that in most of the drafts that we have taken part of. And I've taken part of them in some industry leagues. So it's a matter of, you know, what is your comfort level for me? I would rather go receive

a receiver. Cause I do like a lava in london so those are the two you know once it gets past those guys i'm kind of out until the third round but i prefer two through six give me one of those receivers i'll take my chances with the running back in round two and then i'll pick from one of those receivers in round three i think there's a big difference in this conversation if you have the fifth or sixth pick let's say and the second pick uh you are you have a much better chance of getting a Saquon Barkley or a Travis Etienne or maybe even a Marvin Harrison if you have the fifth pick or the sixth pick than you do with the second. I think you have very little chance getting those guys at 23rd overall. And I think if you have the second pick

in the draft and you have 23rd overall, I don't really think you should care that much about the second and the third round picks personally. Go back and look at ADP in previous years. We're not great. We're pretty damn good at like picking the first round in terms of ADP. Like there aren't a ton of busts in the first round that aren't injury related. Start getting into late in the second round

into the third round. There are a lot of busts that aren't injury related. It's not just us. I'm talking about the entire fantasy community, the experts, the non-experts, whatever. I mean, it's just tough. So I would just take who you feel comfortable with personally. But I think, like for me,

there are nine running backs that I love, and there are nine wide receivers that I love. Dan, you've kind of convinced me to move Kelsey up there too. So if some quarterbacks go, now we're talking about 20 picks, but there are not 24 players that I love. So I think that like, I think you're fine if you have the fifth or sixth pick, you probably get a guy that you really like in the middle of the second round. If you have the second or the third pick, you might be, I don't really want to take

Jalen Waddle here. I don't really want to take Rashad or James Cook, maybe. It's going to be tough. I just want to, because you're mentioning ADP, the quarterbacks are going to be in the first two rounds. We do not draft that way. I'm looking at other ADP, though. I'm looking at other ADP. I'm not just looking at ours. No, no, no. I'm not talking about our ADP. I'm talking about

most casual fantasy drafts. The quarterbacks will go in round two. I'm 1000% convinced. We say every year, how many three, if not four, that would help. That would help a lot.

Yeah. I think it's more of like a round three range this year. These days. No, Jamie, it's still around too. I feel like it's, it used to be around one.

Yeah. It used to be around one back in the day. I feel like we've gone, but, but, you know, to play devil's advocate to the people I feel like we've gone but but but you know to play devil's advocate to the people that take quarterbacks early look at the list we just laid out for me no right it's not a bad and so if you just okay I don't want to take running back 10

because he may be running back 25 I don't want to take wide receiver 11 because he may be wide receiver 15 why would I not take Mahomes or Allen or Hertz and just know that I have that locked up? I'm coming back in round three. I may still have the opportunity to take the player that I was considering anyway, because of still the uncertainty or somebody else in that range. And now I don't have to worry about quarterback. Now, again, the other side of that will be, you may miss out on Anthony Richardson or Jaden Daniels or whatever these guys may be that pop, you know, with a later round pick. But still, you know, you're getting the certainty of what these quarterbacks have been so i totally get that but for me like the way that i would prefer to draft i would like to see those quarterbacks in that range because then it's going to push some of these other players down and i may get two of my top 12 players

on the swing coming back from picking it too or whatever the case may be right around let's uh take a look at the top 12 here and start talking about these players individually. Christian McCaffrey, I don't think we have to say too much about McCaffrey. We already did that. He's number one in PPR top 12. Numbers two and three are CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. This is how Jamie ranks it. He has McCaffrey one, then Lamb, then Hill, and then three more wide receivers. That is not what consensus ADP has. But we take a look at two and three. It's Lamb, then Hill, then Brees Hall, and then Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Jamar Chase. Anyway, if we have trouble even deciding the top four, the top five, maybe most people would have St. Brown five. But are Lamb and Hill easy at one and two at wide receiver? Not easy, because I've said, like, there's no right,

we said there's no right answer. But, you know, Jamie, this is how you have it. You have Lamb and Hill one, two. That's how I have it. I go Hill, Lamb. Dave has Lamb, Hill. Heath has Lamb, Hall, Bijan, Jefferson, Hill. How about you, Dan? Like, what's your next two after McCaffrey? So my next two after McCaffrey would be Lamb for sure. As the wide receiver too. I'll give a quick cause an opposite, but the main thing is wide receiver one, two over wide receiver one, two overall. Yeah. The main thing is what Jamie mentioned a little bit earlier about the connection that McCarthy discussed when it came to Dak and lamb. I'm a big believer in quarterback, a wide receiver board. What I'm a bigger believer in is if you're playing in a mike mccarthy coaching tree so this goes back to aaron rogers with

devante adams eli manning with odell beckham jr when they were racking up like 170 targets a year and 1600 yards with ben mcadoo calling the plays that system mcadoo comes from the mccarthy tree is all about getting matchups it's all about 11 personnel and getting the matchup for your best player in each given snaps. That's what they look to do with lamb on every snap. It's why is so many targets. It's why is such so much production there. I don't see that stopping anytime soon with that report just getting better.

So that's the one for me. Then it gets tricky because I would put Hill too, but I am getting a little scared with the age. Jamie talks a lot about the age factor. We're talking about it with players like Devante Adams. Yeah. Hill isn't quite in that range yet. He's not on the opposite side of 30.

What is he? 29 now though. What'd you say? He's 30. He is 30 now. And he had some injuries. Age 30 season. So,

okay. It is his age 30 season. And he had some injuries last year. That scared me. So I get a little scared there. I don't have Jeff. I would have Jamar chase as my widers. I would have,

or no, then I would have Bijan then chase Chase, then Brees Hall in that order for if we're including all the running backs. But I have Chase over Amonra, St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson. I think for, at least for me, again, you know, doing a lot of research on this for the receivers, you have to be above 20 PPR points to be in the conversation, you know? And so that's such a select few of guys. Lamb did it last year. Hill did it last year. Jefferson did it last year of guys uh lamb did it last year hill did it

last year jefferson did it last year st brown did it last year chase was well short of that however when you azure stat the hell out of this yeah uh he played 10 games with joe burrow in those 10 games he was over 20 ppr right you go back to his last 22 games because he played 12 games with burrow the year before over 20 ppr point that's a great use of an Acer stat right there. Actually, it's a pretty incomplete use of an Acer stat. That's probably the best application of the Acer stat I've ever seen in my life on this show. You've got to go next level with the Acer stats, guys. What do you mean? You've got to do Jamar Chase with Joe Burrow and with T. Higgins.

I don't really care about that. I just care about him. You should care about that. I respect that. You should. I respect that. The 52-point game against Arizona, no T. Higgins. I've got his points per game with Burrow and a healthy T. Higgins.

Okay, so 22 games. What is it? Well, in three seasons, he has never scored 20 points per game. It's 19 points, 19.7, and 15.3 PPR fantasy points per game with T Higgins healthy and Joe Burrow healthy. Can't believe I had the audacity to try to Acer stat Acer himself. It's not fair, really. I mean, I know, right? Yeah. Don't don't bring your game by double. I bring a double A game. It's not really fair. I mean, like, because Burrow wasn't healthy, healthy last year. Right.

You know, but they're actually and Jacob Gibbs used to point. I mean, there was like a six week stretch where he couldn't push off his plant foot. So he couldn't stand under center. Everything was shotgun. There has been a pretty big difference, I think, in the splits when Higgins has been on the field. I don't know if it's like a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless. Yeah. But I'm not going to say that he can't reach 20

because it was 19.7 PPR fantasy points per game for Jamar Chase in 2022 with a healthy T. Higgins. There were some games where Higgins barely played. I took those out. If you remember, 2022 was weird. But go ahead, Jamie. I think it's a great number to start with, 20 points per game, yeah.

Yeah, and Hill has hit that three of his last four seasons, two in a row with Miami. I think the thing, again, with him, and this is where you start to nitpick these guys a little bit. And so you bring up T. Higgins. Obviously, Jalen Waddell was not the same guy last year as well. And how much of that is going to impact Tyreek Hill, who saw a spike in touchdowns in year two with Miami by comparison to year one.

And so I think, you know, you start to look at that. Really, the only negative I have with Tyree Kill is his age, you know, and you say age 30 season. Well, Devontae Adams in his age 30 season went from 19 points per game to 15 points per game, you know, the decimal points, whatever it is. But, you know, there was a downturn. It wasn't like he fell off a cliff, but he did suffer a little bit for whatever reason.

You know, again, you want to talk about quarterback play, age, all these things, factoring in change of coach, change of coach. Um, I went Canadian there, change of coach. Um, they, uh, you know, there, there was a little bit of a downturn. So, you know, you start to, again, what's the, what's the thing here. So like Dan brought up with, with lamb, there's nothing changing. The coach is the same. The quarterback is the same. The lack of competition for targets is even better because Brandon cooks is 31 years old as the number two receiver, at least it'll be 31 years old. The run game got worse, you know?

So lamb is just for me locked in as, as the safest bet, you know, he may not finish that way, but he feels like the safest bet. He'll feels like the second, you know, safest bet just based on again, what he's dealing with in his offense, you know, to a tongue of Ilooa leading the NFL in passing yards last year. And we know he sort of, you know, tailed off by the end of the season. Well, what if because the schedule is a little bit more favorable from a weather standpoint, he does sustain that level of play. Tua does, even with Jalen Waddell being better, even with, you know, a better third receiver, whether it's Odell Beckham or Malik Washington.

You know, that Tyreek is still that guy and they're chasing 2,000 yards again. And, oh, my God, that would be amazing. If he can get to that level, Jefferson is the scary one because again, the quarterback, but this is where you got to buy into player and system. And so that for me, I put them slightly ahead of chase because the lack of competition for targets. Yes. Jordan Addison is there and yes, TJ Hawkins will eventually be there, but we don't know what TJ Hawkins is going to look like. You know, uh, our guy, Marty, you know, said that that's a pretty rough injury to come back from. And who knows when he'll be at the level of TJ Hawkins, if he will, in this season.

And so that's why he's next for me. Chase, with Higgins there, you know, I think Higgins is going to ball out because he's trying to get a better deal. Plus, you know, as I wrote in the story, if you believe in Joe Burrow's health, you're going to believe in Jamar Chase. If you're concerned about Joe Burrow's health, you're going to be concerned. And look, there's reason to be concerned about Joe Burrow's health, you're going to believe in Jamar Chase. If you're concerned about Joe Burrow's health, you're going to be concerned. And look, there's reason to be concerned about Joe Burrow's health because he hasn't stayed healthy.

Yep, that's a great point. I was going to bring that up. You have to have quarterback concerns for Justin Jefferson. You probably, as of right now, have to have some quarterback concerns about Jamar Chase as well. That's another thing that Marty said

when we did our interview. Not to the same level, but obviously an injury concern. Yeah, yeah, right. They're different types of concerns. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, we will talk. Oh, by the way, now let me wrap it up by this.

Everyone's got McCaffrey one. Jamie goes Lamb Hill. Dave goes Lamb Hill at 2-3. Dan goes Lamb Hill at 2-3. I go Hill-Lamb. Heath is the different one here. Heath has Lamb 2. Brees Hall, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill.

So, but everyone except for me has Lamb at number 2 overall. I have Lamb 3 and I have Tyreek Hill 2. But basically, basically, most of us have McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill, you know, in some order, more or less, that would be it. McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill. And we'll, we have to, you know, we're 35 minutes in. We've, we got to talk about some more guys. We will right after this break. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows.

Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. insurance designed for life. favorite treats? Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Uh, nope. You're on your own there. Could've skipped it. Should've skipped it.

Skip to the good part and get groceries, meals, and more delivered right to your door on Skip. So, I think, you know, at this point, Jamie's made it pretty clear. He goes McCaffrey, then he goes five wide receivers before he starts taking Brees Hall or Bijan Robbins.

Who's running back two for you? Hall? Yeah. He goes Hall, Robinson, Gibbs, Taylor. So McCaffrey, five receivers, four running backs, then A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson. That's Jamie's rankings. Consensus is just going to be very different.

Dan, you said you start throwing Bijan Robinson in there after McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill. How do you make that decision of when to put a running back in there? You go Bijan too. Some people are going to have Brees Hall too, whatever it is. But how to break up that group of five wide receivers with a running back, which is what we see in the consensus rankings. McCaffrey, Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Brees Hall, Justin Jefferson, B. John Robinson, Jamar Chase, Amonra St. Brown.

For me, it comes down to can they be the type of running back that Christian McCaffrey is at RB1, which is fully involved in the red zone, fully involved as a receiver, used a lot in pre-snap motion as the motion guy, and have the actual talent to break off big plays. So I think Brees Hall has all of these things, but my issue with putting Brees Hall behind B. John Robinson is simply that I think the offense will change enough with Aaron Rodgers leading the way, assuming he's healthy, which I am going to just assume for this exercise because of how much authority he has at the line of scrimmage before the snap with pre-snap checks, getting them into different kinds of plays with Garrett Wilson and him, the rapport he's going to build there. Mike Williams is on the field. They don't, it's not like they don't have weapons in the passing.

They've upgraded the offensive line. I think that will change the offense enough to the point where Brees Hall won't be the same focal point that Bijan and McCaffrey is. And from everything I've heard from Atlanta, Bijan is going to be that focal point. Yeah, there's excitement around Drake London. I understand why. And there's excitement around Kyle Pitts. But Bijan is going to be who this offense goes through. And I'm still thinking back to just what I watched on tape of him at Texas,

which was probably the best running back prospect that I've ever seen. I said that at the time when I was doing his pre-draft evaluation with CBS Sports when we did our draft profiles. I said he was a time when I was doing his pre-draft evaluation with CBS sports, when we did our draft profiles, I said he was a better prospect on tape than Saquon Barkley because he was a better processor of the football. He's a better between the tackles runner. It was more judicious with his space and with his cuts. He is also a better route runner than any running back since McCaffrey.

He's not as good as McCaffrey, but he's the next level. And people have mentioned guys like Barkley and through the years, none of them have been the route runner that B. John Robinson is. So there's still so much potential for me just from the player upside that we could just be looking at the next Beck star in the NFL. And if the volume is as they're saying it's going to be, and that's what all the signs have been in Atlanta, that's what I'm looking for, that combination of volume and talent.

It's not that Brees Hall doesn't have that. I just think there's a little bit more of where the ball can go with the Jets because Rodgers is the quarterback. Okay. think there's a little bit more of where the ball can go with the jets because rogers is the quarterback okay and then obviously you just you tear lamb and tyreek hill slightly slightly differently than jefferson and slightly because if you're putting a running back ahead of jefferson or well who's wide receiver three for you wide receiver three for me is jamar chase and jamie who's wide receiver three for you jefferson and then chase and then saint brown yes i'm saint brown then jefferson jefferson wide receiver five for me jefferson wide receiver five and that's solely because of the quarterback situation because the quarterback situation 100 because of that it's hard to argue that jamie

make the argument for him as wide receiver three well yeah it's the system you're buying you're buying to the system of the quarterback, correct, Jamie? And I saw a four game sample size of it. You know, you could throw the one bad game in there, sure. But, you know, there's also the huge game in week 18 that we saw as well.

It's weird that I kind of feel more comfortable with Nick Mones throwing the football and completing passes than. Listen, it may be Sam Darnold and Sam Darnold might have a similar impact, you know, until J.J.

McCarthy's up to speed. So I just believe in Kevin O'Connell. I believe in Justin Jefferson. I believe in the lack of T.J. Hawkinson being there, which I expect it to be a significant part of the beginning of the season, whether it's Pup List or just not him being 100%. And so I don't trust Aaron Jones. I don't trust this run game.

I think that we're going to see a still one of the more pass happy teams in the NFL as the Minnesota Vikings and Justin Jefferson being that type of player. Now, have we been burned by these type of situation in the past? Bad quarterback, despite good situation? Sure. But in his prime, just getting the contract that he got, the way that this team sets up, I just think that they're going to give him every opportunity to succeed. And Kevin O'Connell is not going to give him every opportunity to succeed. And Kevin O'Connell is not going to allow Justin Jefferson to not see the ball 10 plus times a game.

So have we been burned by this? I mean, like preseason, midseason, you know, you can look at DJ Moore last year, for example, and his numbers with Fields compared to Bajent and they are remarkably different. He was horrible. He was bad with Bajent. He was unbelievable.

Almost 20 points per game with, uh, with Justin Fields. Uh, I tried to find a situation kind of like this elite wide receiver, new quarterback at the start of the year. I'm probably, I mean, I'm sure I'm missing some and I didn't think of really any off the top of my head. I just thought about mid season injuries, but here's one. How about the 2008 New England Patriots, where Tom Brady tore his ACL in week one, and Randy Moss and Wes Welker were top 10 wide receivers the year before. Moss obviously was number one the year before. He had that incredible season. Randy Moss was like wide receiver 13 per game with Matt Castle. Obviously, it's not the same. We're not talking about an entire off-season with this quarterback. We're talking about a week

one injury, but it's nearly a full season. And the passing game wasn't terrible or anything, but it wasn't Brady. Moss and Welker, they both were worse. You know, Welker, in terms of where he finished, it was about the same, but he was like three points less per game than what he was in 2017. And then he went, or 2007. Then he went back up. They both went back up in 2009.

So I was thinking about like the Moss without Brady season as like, yeah, he was good, but he wasn't nearly as good as he was the year before or the year after with Brady. And I know, look, Cousins isn't Brady and this isn't, this isn't the same thing, but it's, it's the only thing I can think of. I don't know a comparison to this situation. It's not Brady, but it's significant because there's only like a handful of NFL quarterbacks under 10 for sure that can throw to all three levels of the field, challenge all three levels of the field, throw velocity and touch and ball placement and timing. Cousins was one of them. He never got credit for it because he didn't win in the playoffs, but he was one of the few that did it.

And I'm just not sold that Darnold or McCarthy can do that at any kind of consistent level at all. And I, I do like O'Connell. I do like playing in a dome. A lot of those games, all these things, the targets, how funneled they should be to Jefferson, but I need the quarterback to get the football out on time to all three

levels of the field, challenging all three levels. And it's not something I've seen from Darnold and McCarthy. I don't think it's going to be anywhere near NFL ready this year, in my personal opinion, from what I've seen from him. I mean, look, it's, it's a matter of how much you trust McCarthy. I think that because, because we've seen Darnold, we've, we've seen Darnold, but you know, quarterbacks certainly

go through a different kind of system and they, and they look different. Is he ever going to be an elite player? Probably not. Can he be a serviceable player? Yeah. I mean, a lot of people thought Baker Mayfield was broken until he went to the Rams and went through, you know, that system and came out and now look what he's done in Tampa Bay, you know, Gino Smith, same thing when he went to Seattle and finally got an opportunity to start, you know, sometimes these guys that look awful at times or look like they're done, they get with the right coach, the right system, the right talent around them. And they're serviceable. And really it's not about what the quarterback is. It's about what they can do for their receivers, you know? And so, I mean, look, we were talking about Jake Browning

last year and how much he was still helping his receiving core at times as well. You know, some of these guys just get the opportunity to produce Nick Mullins, not good quarterback, Justin Jefferson, still elite level production, you know? So that's what you're hoping for. And so, yes, I don't disagree with you, Dan. I think a lot of people have, you said Nick Mullins was a starter right now because you saw those four games. Jefferson might be the number one player, forget alone the number one receiver, because you saw those four. You saw that small sample size.

But I'm going to buy into O'Connell and Jefferson as much as I'm going to be concerned about the quarterback player and still put him slightly ahead of Chase and still ahead of St. Brown. Can I make one quick point on this, Adam, and I'll wrap up there? Yeah. Just one final thing on this. When it comes to this passing game with the Vikings, and this is one thing that I've been considering,

with Kirk Cousins in there, Justin Jefferson's best route were the dig routes, right? It's these in-breaking routes in the 15-yard range. The whole offense was vertical. It was either Jefferson's breaking in or he's breaking out toward the post or deep patterns. And what did he average? His average yards per catch has been phenomenal his entire career, correct, Adam? I'm sure. Jefferson's breaking in or he's breaking out toward the poster D patterns. And what did he average? Like seven?

Did he ever, his average yards per catch has been phenomenal his entire career. Correct. Adam. I'm sure it has been. Now, if we're thinking of Kevin O'Connell as the coach, we're thinking he is,

which I agree he is. Is it possible? He also changes his system a bit to fit the talent. This is something Brian Dable did in 2022 when he was coach of the year with the giants. He came from a Josh Allen system, vertical, you know, middle of the field oriented to Daniel Jones. And what he did was he just under center play action, roll out bootleg, short pass, short pass, short pass, all sorts of different things that fit his skillset.

Nick Mullins is a vertical thrower. He's not a great quarterback, but he is a vertical thrower. Is Sam Darnold a vertical thrower? He's really never been. Is JJ McCarthy a vertical thrower? He kind of not wasn't in my opinion at all at Michigan. So what if O'Connell changes the system to fit the talent? Now we're talking about a system that's really depressed for fantasy, in my opinion, from Justin Jefferson standpoint, because it cuts off all the things he does well, which is win by selling the vertical route and

then breaking into the middle of the field and having so much space. So it was 15, 20 yard dig route. So it's like, it's another thing I'm concerned about. Where's the system going to go? Is it going to stay the same? And they're going to be like, Darnold McCarthy, you run our system, even though you don't really have the skillset for it. Or would they change it? Try to win football games.

That's another thing that I'm a little concerned with. Well, I will say that, you know, I talked about great, great wide receiver with a new quarterback. I think obviously Devante Adams was a success. Look, Derek Carr is not Sam Darnold. And he can throw a football. It was a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, but Derek Carr got us a top

five season out of Devontae Adams, but not quite as good as what we saw with Rodgers. But then you think about Tyreek Hill with two at some point. Mike Evans with Baker from Brady. Yep. Oh, that's Baker from Brady. Yep. Oh, that's a good one. Yeah.

It was horrible for Godwin, but it was good for Evans. But you think about Tua, and that's the thing. I don't know that Darnold... Darnold's best wide receiver, yes, DJ Moore, but with the Jets, it was like Robbie Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Sam Darnold, if he's the quarterback, he's going to be better just because he has Justin Jefferson.

So we're talking about Loa was not a good quarterback before the head coach, Waddle, and Hill, and then all of a sudden he's leading the NFL. Well, he had Waddle. He did have Waddle. Yeah, right, but he had a rookie Waddle. Yes, but that was also, he was

splitting with Fitzpatrick that year, too. Yeah, and he didn't have as much of a sample size, in my opinion. Jefferson can bring out the best in any quarterback. However, I do want to point out Nick Mullins threw for 400 yards against Detroit twice, 411 and 396. Jefferson scored 15.4 points against the Bengals, 10.9 points against the Packers with half of Mullins, half of Hall. And then he scored 26 points and 36 points in two games against the Lions, who gave up the third most points to wide receivers. All right, Jamar Chase. So he is a pretty interesting player. I don't really think he's had stretches or full seasons that have quite compared to what we've seen from Lamb, Hill, and Jefferson.

Probably, I guess, St. Brown, but I don't know. Have we seen the best of Jamar Chase, Dan? I don't think so. I think he's still entering his prime, first of all. So from that standpoint, I don't think we've seen the best of Jamar Chase. I think he's just going to get better and better as far as the route running goes. But mostly the rapport with Burrow, that's just going to continue to improve. They're still together.

They're still working on their craft. And so if Jermaine Burton is the player I think he could be as well and add a little bit more talent to the slot, a little bit more explosiveness, a little bit more of, okay, the defense has to account for this player at times, that could also help Jamar Chase get more one-on-one looks no i don't think we've seen the best of marches that's why i haven't ranked wide receiver three i think he's the best of that group after the first two jamie uh i think it's worth pointing out that while we don't have the same players while you guys you dave and heath and probably me and Dan I'm guessing don't have

the same players in the same don't have the same order there is a consensus top eight for all of you you all have in some order see that list again yeah yeah yes definite consent especially because the nine and ten on this list I'm very scared of both players okay that would be AJ Brown and Jameer Gibbs but the, like the elite eight in fantasy this year are McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill, Brees Hall, Justin Jefferson, Bijan Robinson, Jamar Chase,

and Amonra St. Brown. Five wide receivers and three running backs. I think you do not want the ninth pick in a snake draft. Of those eight players, who do you think,

like I'll just say all eight of them, guys, and Jamie, you can start, then Dan. Do they have potential to be the best player in fantasy? Christian McCaffrey, yes. CeeDee Lamb? Yes.

Tyreek Hill? Yes. Brees Hall? Yes. Justin Jefferson? Yes. I don't feel it either at all. I don't feel it.

I don't feel that one at all. I know't feel it. I don't feel that one at all. I know he's an amazing player, but with that quarterback, I just don't feel it at all. But I understand the idea behind it. Bijan Robinson. Yes. Yes. Jamar Chase.

Yes. Yes. Yes. The less so. Amonra St. Brown. No. No. Okay. All right. So then, Jamie, let's look at 9 through 12.

In this consensus, there are A.J. Brown, Jameer Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, and Garrett Wilson. In just your rankings, it is the same four, but a different order. Gibbs, Taylor, A.J. Brown, Garrett Wilson. We do see Puka Nakua get in there for Dave at number 12. But it's basically, you know what? It's consensus top 13 because the next five after those eight are in some order. Gibbs, Taylor, Brown, Wilson, Pukunukuwa for Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

But looking at just consensus, it's Brown, Gibbs, Taylor, Wilson. How do you feel about this group of four in general, Jamie? I think in the spot you are in the first round, they're very productive players that have a ton of potential. I mean, you know, A.J. Brown, 17 plus PPR points in each of his two seasons in Philadelphia. Last year had that six game stretch where he had 125 yards or more for six games in a row. I like the addition of Kellen Moore for him specifically. I think that's going to help him see a little bit of a target spike

and some easier routes to help him get some, you know, hopefully a little uptick in catches. And then we'll see if the touch push is still going to be the same countered with that with the addition of Saquon Barkley, who's a better running back than DeAndre Swift so you have sort of have okay you maybe lose a couple of rushing touchdowns on that end but you gain them on Barkley's perspective so that maybe limits the upside for for A.J. Brown but when I think when you talk about these two receivers and these two running backs Brown and Wilson Dan said that you know we're drafting

Wilson based on the hope of Aaron Rodgers taking him to that next level which you know we saw some flashes of that more as a rookie than we did last year. And so I'm with Dan on that. I think that Garrett Wilson could be the next great wide receiver in the NFL for Gibbs and Taylor. They're a little polarizing Gibbs clearly with the backfield competition of David Montgomery and Taylor with the idea of what Anthony Richardson can be. Is that a plus for Taylor or is a negative for Taylor? And I think we don't know the answer to that. You know, you can sort of, you know, sort of guess how it'll work because of what Richardson did with the Zach Moss running back group that they had before Taylor stepped on the field. They didn't play together very much, Taylor and Richardson, only a little bit of that fifth game of the season when Richardson suffered a shoulder injury.

So this is why they're after the top eight. There's inherent risk with these guys more so comparatively to the other group. And you throw Barkley in this conversation, you throw Kyron Williams still for some people in this conversation, you throw Puka in this conversation as well. And I think that's why you start to see really 14, 15 guys that could be in consideration for nine through, I'm sorry,

not 14, 15 guys, but 14, 15 guys consideration for the first round and about six or seven guys that could be consideration for the last four picks. What scares you, Dan, about AJ Brown and Jameer Gibbs?

I don't want to, I shouldn't say vary. It's small scares, small scares. They're obviously first-round players. The small scare for A.J. Brown, for me, is a stat that I think we'll probably see, I don't want to give it away fully, in one of the newsletters this week. So for those who don't know, one quick shout-out,

Jacob Gibbs from our Beyond the Box score, fantasy analyst here, CBS Sports and Sportsline, is now taking over writing the newsletter, and he's been diving deep on these newsletters. Jacob Gibbs from our Beyond the Box score, fantasy analyst here, CBS Sports and Sportsline, is now taking over writing the newsletter, and he's been diving deep on these newsletters. He's had three out already. They've been 6,000-word deep dives, well worth your time in the advanced stats, a lot of good nuggets to unpack from a fantasy standpoint that get you prepped for your draft season. But one that he's unpacking is the impact of Kellen Moore and what it's meant for the slot receiver, so what it meant for Keenan Allen, what it meant before that for the slot receiver he had in Dallas,

which was CeeDee Lamb at the time. And it's a funnel of targets that are coming that way. Now, who will be that slot receiver? Well, that's what he's digging deep into from early OTAs. It's looking like it could be Devante Smith. And if Devante Smith is in that role, that Kellen Moore slot role, that's what scares me a little bit with AJ Brown. Yes. He's in the best shape of his life. It's phenomenal talent, but if I'm getting a hundred targets out of him, 105, 110, 120 in that range, that's not a player that I'm that excited about drafting at nine overall. If Smith is in that role, that still remains to be determined. I think AJ Brown could probably play that role, a different version of that role too. I have to see what happens in camp there. But if Smith is in that role,

that Keenan Allen role, I'm definitely a little bit nervous just for that price range for AJ Brown. Now, as far as Gibbs goes, is that, did you ask about Gibbs or not? As far as Gibbs goes, I have a feeling, again, this is not like a major concern concern i still obviously think he's well worth a pick in this range but i have a feeling we as a fantasy community could be overrating gibbs a bit just because he's an incredibly fun explosive player with incredible amount of talent based upside and then there's also the receiving factor because there's nobody else in the mix usually at this range that has a guy like david montgomery in his backfield potentially in his red zone taking away touchdowns maybe not every touchdown but some touchdowns and

we already know from last year they're not just going to phase david montgomery out he's a part of that offense he helps them move the football he's there on early downs he's there in certain situations and there's just nobody else in that range that i'm that's just not i don't really like investing in a first round pick in a running back. Who's not a guarantee to get all the red zone touches or quite frankly, like more than 60% of the touches in general. Yeah. Would you take Taylor ahead of him?

Yes. Jamie has them back to back. He has Gibbs ninth overall Taylor 10th overall. Yeah. No, I mean, I have said this a bunch, but it's worth repeating.

The last nine games of the season, that was weeks 10 through 18, with David Montgomery back from injury. Jameer Gibbs was terrific. He was the number 10 running back per game. Yeah, there's just not a lot of touches there. And there weren't even really that many catches. What were his touches in those games when Montgomery was healthy? On pace for 200 carries and 45 touches, 45 catches. Like that's not, that's, how is that first round?

Well, I think you got to buy into what they're saying, which is they're going to give him more work. And, you know, I mean, for what it's worth, you know, we'd always like to buy into coach speak and things that are said in the offseason, but this is also the same group that surprised us and drafted him 12th overall and said, you're going to see him used as a weapon, and he was. And he was pretty special, like you said, Dan. I think we're maybe a little too excited about him, which I understand will be so.

But they've done nothing short of coming through on the guarantees for this kid. And so does that mean that's where some of the 64 vacated targets go from Josh Reynolds is to Jameer Gibbs, and we see maybe an uptick in, in there's receptions reception total. Do we see a little bit more goal line opportunities coming his way or just more carries overall? I mean, again,

that's, you know, the, the question you have to ask yourself. And so for what his opportunity is behind, arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, let's not forget about that. Yep.

And so all these indoor games, three games out outdoors this year for the lions. I mean, this could be a juggernaut. So speaks to St. Brown and what his upside is. Speaks to Laporta and what his upside is. And speaks to Jameer Gibbs and what his upside is. And I also think the counter to that, which I don't think is necessarily a pro-Gibbs argument,

is just don't forget about David Montgomery. You know, I think he's still going to be enough of a factor that, you know, even if he's pushed down in a little bit more of a secondary role, still be 10 touchdowns and could still be close to a thousand total yards based on how this offense will operate. Hot take. That doesn't matter. If Jameer Gibbs, if David Montgomery got traded, weren't on the team,

I'd take Gibbs one overall. I'm out on. I mean, I love the idea of it. Find it find it adam but he's still 195 pound running back he's not going to be like christian mccallis like how many carat like they're not just going to overload him with touches they'd find somebody else i think i don't know as 190 pounds i doubt they're just ramming him into the ground in the david montgomery role plus his role man remember what he did though without his phenomenal talent it's just a matter of like can he hold up if he was in a massive workhorse role all right well fine i'll take him one i'll

take him one anyway let's see what happens fair go for it yeah you can just have fun with it i think about puka nakua we're going to talk about tomorrow but i think it's funny you know justin jefferson as a rookie goes for as, like, a top six receiver overall. I think he was 10th per game. He was 10th per game. I know that in PPR. And then his ADP was 23rd, according to Fantasy Pros, the year before. I remember that.

He was, like, a late second-round pick. And then he just, you know, became Justin Jefferson, right? He just solidified himself as the number one receiver. Sorry, as number one receiver. Sorry, as an elite receiver. Pukunukuwa goes out, sets rookie reception record. I think most yards for a rookie. I don't think the most touchdowns. And he's 13th, you know, and it's like, maybe he's just better than, maybe he's just going to be better than almost all these guys. Maybe he should be ahead of A.J. Brown. We'll talk about him tomorrow, but you might

actually at 13th be getting a little bit of a discount on a guy who just had arguably the best rookie receiving season ever. That depends, I think, entirely on if you think Cooper Cup will come back healthy. I mean, like, maybe, but Adam Thielen... No, entirely on that, because Justin Herbst, when he broke out that second

time, he didn't have any target competition at the time. He had Adam Thielen. I don't know. Yeah, Adam Thielen. But like Cooper Cup is 31, right? Again, if you think Cooper Cup is going to be Adam Thielen level, then that's one thing. Or if you think he could get back to close to what he was when just healthy,

depends what you think on Cooper Cup. I'm bullish on Cooper Cup, but that's just me. Does it even matter, though? You know, maybe they're though? Maybe they're both... Maybe they could both put up wide receiver one. I don't know about that. Remember, just two years ago, Cooper Cup was like easy top three wide receiver back-to-back years.

Yeah, and per game, he was number one back-to-back years. Yeah, he was number one. Yes, it is. Yeah, no, that could be it for him. Okay, that's our top 12. Again, I'll read the names for you. It was McCaffrey, Lamb, Hill.

You don't want to spend any time on Taylor? Yeah, I thought we kind of did. Okay, no, we can talk about Taylor. In fact, I'll read an email about Jonathan Taylor from Ted. I'm not understanding all the hype for Jonathan Taylor. He's around 180p, yet every running back that plays with a run-heavy quarterback does not produce that way. We don't have much of a sample size with Anthony Richardson, but the dude runs a ton and runs into the end zone. The Ravens don't produce a top 10

running back. The Bills don't produce a top 10 running back, except last year when I believe Cook finished 10th. The Eagles don't produce a top 10 running back, yet we expect Jonathan Taylor, who's probably playing with the most run-heavy of all them to be top five or six I don't see it I don't get it any thoughts Jamie well I mean you could nitpick some of this you know depending on how you want to break it down Mark Ingram had five touchdown season with Lamar Jackson when he was the MVP I believe he was in the top 10 if I'm not mistaken he had a five receiving touchdowns he had how many touchdowns he like a 15 touchdown season or something five receiving touchdowns excuse me yeah he had a receiving touchdowns. He had how many touchdowns? He had like a 15-touchdown season or something. Five receiving touchdowns, excuse me. Yeah, he had a crazy touchdown season.

Miles Sanders, two years ago, had 10 touchdowns, right? 11 touchdowns? Yeah, but he's right, though. None of them played first-round picks. I do think James Conner probably did with... But again, you're talking about guys that aren't Jonathan Taylor. Oh, yeah, for sure. Like, you know, to compare Mark Ingram at that point in

his career, I think it was 27 or 28. Um, Miles Sanders is certainly not at that level. Uh, who else? I think we saw last year when Taylor was back, he was playing

at an RB one level, right? But different quarterback, you know, they didn't play together, you know, so it's a matter of do you buy into Shane Steichen who did the same, you know, had a similar type offense running quarterback, Miles Sanders, so was able to get that type of production just from his running back alone.

If you're drafting Taylor with the idea of him being a 50-catch guy, you're going to be let down because that's not going to happen in this offense. He barely did that, I think, if he ever did it at all in his 2021 campaign when he was a superstar. He's just got the ability, I think, to be a league-leading rusher and score 15-plus rushing touchdowns. So that's the opportunity for him. So will he lose some rushing touchdowns because of Richardson?

100%. Will he gain because of some RPO benefits and open run lanes because of the fear of Andy Richardson. 100%. Yeah. So for me, that's the other thing, right? If we're worried about him losing a percentage of the touchdowns in red zone,

what if there's more touchdowns to come by in the red zone? Because Richardson is a phenomenal breakout quarterback. Go ahead. Finish up, Jamie. No, no, that, that, that says it. You know what I mean? I don't think you're counting on him to be a receptions guy. So when you start to compare him to, let's say,

the guys that are going to go after him, which are Saquon and Kyron and maybe ETN, I think that's the debate you have to have. Is Barkley going to catch a lot of passes from Jalen Hurts? Well, we haven't seen that in that offense. And is Kyron Williams going to still continue to be that guy? I think he's the most polarizing of the group. I think we'll talk about him tomorrow.

But do you trust him with Blake Corum there to be that guy? I think he's the most polarizing of the group. I think we'll talk about him tomorrow. But, you know, do you trust him with Blake Corum there to, you know, be that type of player again? The Rams have two guys like that, you know, fifth round pick, you know, from Puka Nakua and a former sixth or seventh round pick. I forget what Kyron Williams was. You know, can those guys do it again? And that's the biggest question for both. Okay. I can think of only one running back who's played with a mobile, like a real true running quarterback and has been first round worthy. And I would have to say Christian McCaffrey with Cam Newton. Right? Didn't McCaffrey have some 27 point per game? Let's see. his first big season right yeah and that's the thing is like cam newton didn't have a history of throwing the running backs until christian mcafree came sure um all right so 2000 2018

23.8 points per game let's see what cam newton was doing in 2018 yep he was carolina's quarterback he started 14 games uh 23.8 points per game is pretty amazing. Now, 20, yeah, I guess it's worth noting that McCaffrey didn't get to the 27 or 29.3 points per game was the next year where Cam Newton got hurt, but still 23.8 points per game, 107 catches, but only seven rushing touchdowns. This guy, this is a good email. It's a great point. There are problems with mobile quarterbacks. They run for touchdowns the mar jackson doesn't really do it near the red zone near the end zone that much that's one good thing about him but but they run they don't throw their running backs that much either they don't throw that much so i see the point i see the point but we're hoping for like just great efficiency 1500 rushing yards that kind of

thing like just a great year for taylor if he's if he's 1500 and let's say 12 and 30 for 210 you could just stop right there if he's 1512 then he's he's going to be worth the first round pick yeah but that could be Derrick Henry, too. Yep. Not the 1,500 part. No, no, I'm just saying, you know, the Derrick Henry numbers. 1,215.

Right. There's certainly similarities to those two. Yeah. Okay. Dan, so I think, personally, I made a great decision not going to the Yankees game on Friday. Why do you think that? Because they got blown out? Because of the weather.

They got their butts kicked. They got their butts kicked immediately. What would the weather matter? We were inside a box. Yeah, it's just like, you know, it's nice to go out in nice weather. I don't want to go to the train. Last time he was at a sporting event,

Actually, it was pretty cool. It ended up being pretty cool at night. Like, the temperature went way down, at least in the seats we were in. I would have been cold. Last time he was at a sporting event with you, he had to walk 15 minutes, though, so that was brutal.

Just to get ditched. That's right. But, but apparently I missed something great. You did miss something great. I'm so incredible experience. Shout out to whatnot for doing it. You had a box suite with just,

you can walk outside the box and like I get into the actual Yankee seat. So we're watching the game early. Not great. Yankees getting killed. Obviously we put a little bit of a wager on the Yanks cause we're watching them and that didn't go great. Carlos or Don throwing meatballs, but in the middle of it, and like the fifth and whatever seventh inning stretch, they did the company called whatnot, which is a sports card company did it. Something called an unboxing. So we all came into the,

into the suite and they handed us numbers out of a hat one to 20. My childhood friend, I brought with me, Steve Milano, diehard Yankees fan knew he'd love this whole experience. So I was happy to invite him. He's standing to my left, which Adam would have been on if Adam were here with me and we're handing out numbers. He gets one of the last numbers picked. I get the second last, he gets the last, picks it out, turns it over. He's like, Oh, 12. This is my anniversary date. This is a lucky number for me. Okay. Whatever. They start unboxing the cards. They're like, you know, like there's usually one really, really good card. And that's what we're looking for. And they have these things called sweats, which is like, they take out this briefcase and they open up the briefcase and there's three cards that are like

barely revealed and they're hidden and they're the sweats. And I love gambling. He loves gambling. So we're hyping everyone. This is the one thing. I don't know if this would happen without the hype Adam. And I don't know if you could have hyped the same way that me and my friend hyped. You're not really, I don't know if I put you on hype guy. So we're hyping it up. Oh, here comes the sweat. Here comes the sweats. They get to the sweats. And so they get a couple of cards and there hasn't been anyone that good yet. And my friend Steve gets his number 12. This again, Adam would have been standing to my left. This would have been Adam's number. Um, and why would Adam be standing to my left? I always put people on my left because the other side is my good side. So I put people on my left. Anyway, Adam standing to my left

gets number 12. They're starting to unbox it. They're revealing the revealing and the guy from the company is like, Oh my God, it's blue. And we're like, what does that mean? What does blue mean? And they're like, blue means it's a one of one card. So this is the only card printed of it. So he's unveiling, he's unveiling. It's a one of one Nolan Ryan card, one of one card so this is the only card printed of it so he's unveiling he's unveiling it's a one of one nolan ryan card one of one nolan ryan so he pulls this but gives it to my friend it's in this nice case and so like we're both bsing with them and my friend's like yeah like what do you think this is actually worth and the guy's like this is probably worth between three and five thousand oh my god yes a one of one nolan ryan oh yeah that was your card adam that was A one of one Nolan Ryan. Oh, yes. That was your card, Adam. That was your one of one Nolan Ryan card.

Between three and five thousand value today. Oh, I ended up getting some crappy catcher on the Nationals, like a prospect I've never heard of. I suck. I can't believe you did that. All right. Yeah. A couple things real quick before we leave here. I have a double header tonight in softball.

Game one's at seven o'clock, which is fine. Game two's at like 815. I got to skip it. Right. For game seven. I have a double header tonight in softball. Game one's at 7 o'clock, which is fine. Game two's at like 8.15. I gotta skip it, right, for game seven? No. You're the starting second baseman. I'm skipping it for game seven. This is game seven. They might lose by 12 if you're not there, as opposed to seven.

Exactly. The other thing is, do I let my son stay up to watch the entire game? Is he a Panther? He's been watching the Panthers? Yeah, he's five years old. He goes to sleep at like 10, 15 usually. And he's a huge Panthers fan?

Yeah. So why is your five-year-old going to sleep at 10, 15? It doesn't matter what time we put him to bed. You can't stop him. Well, I think you'll know by hopefully the game flow. If they're still in it, then you let them stay out. I was thinking maybe I'll watch on my phone while I'm in the dugout. No.

I thought about this. The last time one of my teams was in game seven of a championship was 30 years ago. Wait, the Panthers are one of your teams? I mean, they're the lowest of my teams. I didn't know this was considered one of your teams. I barely consider them one of my teams. If this were any other game, any other of my teams, I wouldn't even think about playing softball.

Right, of course you would never play softball. Right, but the Panthers are like the least of my teams. But the last time one of my teams was in Game 7 of a championship was the Knicks-Rockets in 1994. So I was thinking, like, I may never get a chance to watch game seven of a championship with my son ever.

Who knows? You know what? Let him stay up. You've sold me. You just completely sold me with that comment. Let him stay up. What does he have on today?

Let the boy stay up. He has school on still Tuesday. He has two more days. No, no. Give him the day off. Give him a day off. You guys are still in school? Two more days,

but they're half days. No, no, Adam. Give him a day off of school. Give him a day off. Give him a day off. Write him in sick. He was sick that day. Now, the easy, you're definitely not making good school. Oh, wait, I'm a day off of school. Give him a day off. Write him in sick. He was sick that day. Now, easy.

You're definitely not making good school. I'm wrong. I'm wrong. I forgot about the Yankees. Yankees 2001 against the Diamondbacks. They lost game seven. But still, it's pretty rare. Oh, you're bad luck.

Go play softball. Don't watch it. No, no, no. You let him watch it. You let him stay up. You enjoy this amazing experience together, and you'll remember it. He'll remember it. But then you don't make him go to school the next day.

He obviously gets a sick day. If he wakes up on time, he'll go to school. If not, he doesn't have to go to school. No, no remember it. He'll remember it. But then you don't make him go to school the next day. He obviously gets a sick day. If he wakes up on time, he'll go to school. If not, he doesn't have to go to school. No, no, no. He'll decide. Let him decide. He's in kindergarten. He likes going to school.

Okay. All right. Let's go, Panthers. Let's get this win. And thanks. And we'll talk about PPR 13 through 24 tomorrow. See you.