Fantasy Football Today - Our Favorite Mid-Round RBs (06/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 27, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Need a running back in Rounds 5-8? Trying to decide between Jonathon Brooks, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones and other guys in that range? Dave and Jamey tell you how they rank it and where the value is. We give our thoughts on each player starting with Zamir White, Rhamondre Stevenson and David Montgomery (6:00). Stevenson could see an increase in carries but a decrease in catches. Is White good enough to be productive for a full season? ... Let's look at Brooks, Harris and Tony Pollard (22:40). Why draft Pollard when you can draft Tyjae Spears later? Can Harris be better than we've seen in his first three seasons? ... We finish with (32:30) James Conner, D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones and Zack Moss (46:30). Age is the concern for Conner and Jones. Swift could certainly benefit if Khalil Herbert gets traded and our feelings on Moss are complicated to say the least! ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are live here on Fantasy Football today. Unless you're listening, then we're anything but live. We're recording this on Wednesday, almost afternoon. In my mind, it is afternoon.

It is 11.38 a.m. And Dave Richard is back with Jamie Isenberg. I am Adam Azer. We're going to talk about a bunch of mid-round running backs. You know, we got through like Devon Achan and Ken Walker, that group in a previous episode. But what if you're into round five? Hopefully not earlier than that.

Would you guys agree? David Montgomery, Zamir White, Ramondre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, James Connor, DeAndre Swift, Zach Moss,

Aaron Jones, 10 running backs. None of them should be in the first four rounds, right? Correct. I'm with you. Yes. Maybe in a non PPR league.

Yeah, but half or full now, but all right guys. So these are, these half are full. No, but all right, guys. So these are important picks, important players. And again, Montgomery, Zamir White, Ramondre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, James Conner, DeAndre Swift, Zach Moss, Aaron Jones.

That's a group of 10. How many of them do you guys feel like you've been drafting a lot? Jamie? Drafting a lot? Not very many. Zemir White, Winnie Falls, Jonathan Brooks. I do anticipate taking a lot of Ramondre Stevenson. Really, that's about it of that group. Okay. I don't take a lot of Ramondre Stevenson. Really, that's about it of that group.

I don't take a lot of these guys. I would say the ones that I do end up settling for are Zach Moss, Najee. I think I've had Pollard a couple of times, but I feel like I've drafted Tajay Spears even more. But the more I hear you recite the names, the more I kind of like want to hurl. And if I feel that way, that means I probably need to go back

to doing what I've been doing for so many years, and that's gravitating toward running back with earlier picks in my draft. Yeah, so why? This is, by the way, this is RB 18 through 27 in the consensus rankings, probably rounds five through eight-ish picks in a 12-team league.

What's so bad about this group? There's nothing bad about them. It's just like their upside is somewhat capped. You know what I mean? They have competition, clearly Montgomery with Gibbs, Najee with Warren, Pollard with Spears. You know, I think we're going to see, based on the reports, you know, Zach Moss with Chase Brown, certainly in the passing game,

you know, you can probably look at a few of these other guys and talk about their competition. Their offenses, in some cases, are going to be bad for Mondays, potentially. And so there's, you know, some downside, you know, Jonathan Brooks, if he was healthy, he should be ahead of this group. You know, if he, if he's 100% coming into camp, no issues, he, he will, he will leapfrog this group, but there's no guarantee that's going to be the case because of the reports that we have right now. So I think you just have to understand that this is the reason why if you draft appropriately, you're hopefully not relying on these guys to win your fantasy leagues.

They're going to be supplements to what should be a good start to your roster. Okay. In the order of the consensus rankings, I had been reading it slightly out of order. So it is a mirror white 18 remand Ray 19 Montgomery 20, Jonathan Brooks, 21 Pollard, 22 Najeeris 23 james connor 24

deandre swift 25 zach moss 26 and aaron jones at 27 it could be a pretty you know two to three round pretty big two to three round difference if we consider them similar you know i don't know like do you think there's a do you think there's a big difference between zamir white at 18 and aaron jones at 27 no other than age and injury but no i think they i think we can find multiple warts with every single one of these running backs i think it's going to be hard to kind of lay out a path for a lot of these running backs to get to let's call it 16 ppr points per game meaning that like they they beat expectations by a mile uh and and that's really about it and the running backs i named those are the guys that i'm taking toward the

end of this range right and that that's the goal like if i'm going to take one of these running backs maybe connor's an exception um but if i'm in montgomery too but if i'm going to take one of these running backs, maybe Connor's an exception. But if I'm in Montgomery too, but if I'm going to take these guys, I want to get them. I want to get like the last one or two in this quote unquote tier. And I want to do that in like round seven, eight, somewhere in there.

And I don't even know if they're going to make it to around eight. A lot of them won't. And by the way, why did I cut it off at Aaron Jones? After that, you do have Javante Williams, who's 28th in the consensus rankings. I probably could have put him in here. But you do have, I think,

a lot of guys that don't look like they're going to lead the team in care. I don't know. You have like the Jalen Warrens, Tajay Spears. You have Mostert, who's obviously interesting. Devin Singletary, Austin Eckler. So we just cut it off at those 10, and let's get to it here.

Let's talk about these guys. Dave told you about our Fantasy Football Magazine yesterday, or I guess that was on Tuesday's show. Yes, it is Wednesday, but you're hearing this on Thursday. That's coming out soon. We'll keep you updated on that one. There's such great content coming up on the website. There's going to be editions of sleepers and breakouts and busts.

So just go to CBS sports.com slash fantasy and go to CBS sports.com slash podcasts and listen to some awesome sports pods. If we look at the first three here, Zamir white, Ramond, Dre Stevenson and David Montgomery. The fourth one is Jonathan Brooks, but we'll, we'll go with these threes. Zamir white, Ramond, Dre Stevenson and David Montgomery. The fourth one is Jonathan Brooks, but we'll go with these three.

Amir White, Ramondre Stevenson, and David Montgomery. How do you guys rank them? It could be very different depending on format. I don't know, but how do you rank White, Stevenson, and Montgomery? Right now, it's Montgomery, White, Stevenson, Brooks. Montgomery, White, Brooks, Stevenson, Brooks. Montgomery, White, Brooks, Stevenson. So you guys have Montgomery at the head of the pack here. Yes.

Yeah, I go back and forth between Montgomery and White. You know, they're both not going to have significant roles in the passing game. It's more of I keep going back to Alexander Madison with Zamir White. You know, like just small sample size of a guy that's got a great opportunity. Will he take full advantage of it? And, you know, it wasn't like Alexander Madison had significant competition last year, similar to what White has. Ironically enough, it's Madison. But we saw, you know, he struggled.

They tried to replace him with Cam Akers. Ty Chandler ended up being the more successful running back for this team. Could a similar situation happen with the Raiders? I hope not. White looked really good in those four games last year. He did some decent things in the passing game when they threw him the ball. And again, I'll go back to what Heath said. He could lead the NFL in carries or be in the competition to lead the NFL in carries.

But he could also be a complete flop. And so Montgomery has the, I think, safer floor and the ceiling of, what if Jameer Gibbs gets hurt? Then he could be a superstar. And you just think about how Lions running backs have operated over the last two seasons, especially when it comes to scoring touchdowns. And it locks you into Montgomery. I think White has more upside.

And weren't there like – there were a couple of games at the end of last year. I know White only had four games where he was awesome, but half of them he had like three catches or more. I think he had one with like four or five. He's got the potential to outperform this ADP for sure and maybe jump into that next tier. He is probably one of the big reasons why Antonio Pierce still has a job in Vegas because when when he was playing and they were feeding him the rock and

they were giving him over 20 touches a game at the end of the season that offense was humming the they they seem to have their swagger the defense fed off of it and they won a bunch of games so I I'm optimistic with Zamir White, especially since his competition is Madison and Dylan Lobby. As long as the Raiders don't do anything crazy at running back, that tells me that they really do love White. And they'll give him multiple chances to lead the way in that offense. And maybe we're making a mistake here by taking him after Montgomery, but they're back to back. And if white can hold up and white continues to play like he did at the end of last year, that's a stretch to say,

but if he does it, you're going to be glad you drafted him. I recently spoke about what Jameer Gibbs was in the last 11 games of the season, or sorry, the last nine games, regular season. He was the number 10 running back per game, Jameer Gibbs.

This was when Dave Montgomery returned from his injury. But what about Montgomery in those games? Overall, he was a top 13 running back in half and full PPR, even better than that non-PPR. But he was 18th per game in half. He was 20th per game in full PPR. That's pretty much exactly where he's being drafted, or it's basically exactly where he is

in the consensus rankings, David Montgomery. So this is what he was on pace for in those last nine games. 236 carries, 19 catches, 13 touchdowns. So we often talk about drafting a player at his ceiling. We don't want to do that. Does he have a higher ceiling than that? Because 13 touchdowns is kind of a lot. And with those 13 touchdowns, that was his pace.

He was only the number 20 running back per game in full PPR, number 18 per game in half PPR. Well, two things. One, his ceiling is a Jameer Gibbs injury. So, you know, that's what you have to factor in when you talk about ceiling for him. Two, 13 touchdowns is four shy of what the guy he replaced from the year before scored, which was Jamal Williams scoring 17. So this position is kind of penciled in for, I think, 10-plus touchdowns.

And so that's hard to overlook. Now, we don't want to chase touchdowns, but there's a history here with this offense coordinator, with this head coach, with the physical running back. You know, they didn't do it with DeAndre Swift two seasons ago. They did it a little bit more with Jameer Gibbs last year, and they anticipate it sounds like doing a little bit more with Jameer Gibbs this year. So that's why I think Montgomery gets downgraded even more. Again, I think the four guys in question make sense. Now, if you are a James Conner guy, if you are an Aji Harris guy, if you are an Aaron Jones guy, then you extend this group because that's, I think, comparable.

I'm out on the two older guys personally, Aaron Jones and James Conner, especially at their ADP. So I'm trying to avoid them. However, if you are in that camp, then you have a choice to make because Conner is not going to be as involved in the passing game based on this offense that we saw last year. And Jones may have the ability to be better than all these guys if you don't fear his age and injury concern. But I think this is where I think I think this group makes sense, at least does to me of Montgomery, White, Stevenson and Brooks. And again, I would take Brooks ahead of all of them if you tell me he's 100% healthy. Okay.

Just are you are you falling for the trap of like he's 100% healthy, but kind of forgetting that he's not 100% effective, Jonathan Brooks. I mean, we can talk about it a little bit, but he's still coming for an ACL. That's the topic. The investment's a little bit different this year comparatively to where Brees Hall was starting to get drafted last year and then where he ended up. Brees Hall ended up being a fine draft pick

when he was going in the round 4-5 range after I think enough people kind of poo-pooed the be careful of ACL tears and Javante Williams going certainly later than that round five round six for me with Jonathan Brooks if you say he's cleared and he's good to go I love the Canales offense we saw for Rashad White last year and what it was I think it's gonna be very productive for Jonathan Brooks I think it's gonna be great catch the ball at backfield be a big weapon for Bryce Young. So I'm very excited about him. Yes.

If he's healthy, I will fall for the shiny new toy. Okay. Dave, I got to take a break. Let you get in on that. We got to talk about Ramondre Stevenson as well. All right. We'll be right back. We have a lot to talk about.

And it's funny. You know, you think about Aaron Jones and James Connor. Jamie just said he's out on the older guys at their ADP. Are they, Are they maybe the well, is Aaron Jones maybe the best running back in this group, like the most talented guy? But he's going, he's last in the consensus rankings. A lot of questions.

A lot of questions to throw at you. Also, history of 29-year-old running backs. Not very good. And that's what James Connor and Aaron Jones are going to be or already are in Connor's case this season. All right, we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. With Smartwater's pure crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double texting your crush,

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All right, well, let's go to Ramondre Stevenson, as we kind of didn't get in-depth on Stevenson here, Dave. And I think in terms of white Montgomery Stevenson, I would make the case that he's the most unpredictable, because i see a chance for a lot more carries than he's ever gotten he's had to split with damian harris and then last year like zeke was getting almost nine carries per game about eight and a half carries per game in the first 11 games of the season before stevenson got hurt left with a season-ending injury that's a lot that's too much and he was the goal zeke was kind of the goal linebacker. They were sort of splitting, but they might just turn him loose.

And they gave him the contract. They might give him like a 300 carry pace. He hasn't even been close to that. He was on pace for 227 carries if you remove week 13 when he got hurt. But then you worry about the catches and the Patriots. He's not gonna be the third down back.

He hasn't really been the third down back. And now they have Antonio Gibson. But Dave, the Patriots have been, not going to be the third down back. He hasn't really been the third down back. And now they have Antonio Gibson. But, Dave, the Patriots have been, I want to say, top six each of the last two seasons in running back targets on first and second down. But Jacoby Brissett has never been a guy that's thrown to his running backs. Nope, he's a tight end targeter. Rookie quarterbacks, they're not often guys who throw to their running backs. So I feel like we could see a lot more carries for Stevenson.

Will we see fewer catches for Stevenson? Will we see significantly fewer catches from Stevenson? What is your take on the touches and overall the player here, Ramondre? It's probably going to be a running back that I'm out on. I think that you're right that he could end up being the lead rusher for them, not playing on obvious passing down situations, and that role can go to Antonio Gibson. But I just don't think that this is going to be a team that scores a lot of points.

I don't know if the offensive line has really been solved. I don't know if they've addressed that enough. They're changing offenses, so what they've done in the past, it doesn't hit the same way for me because it is an Alex van Pelt, Kevin Stefanski, like that version of the West coast offense coming in it. I think they're going to try and be a downfield passing team. And I think their goal this year is to just stay competitive as long as they can and bring along Drake may at whatever pace that works for them. If may is ready to go by the time training camp is done week week one, he's out there, and he'll need a run game to help him.

I just don't know if Stevenson is that great of a running back. I don't know if the efficiency metrics line up. Basic numbers like four yards per carry over the course of the season, that doesn't rate well. 4.4 yards per carry on first downs, that sounds good. That's 46th among qualifying running backs. His yards before and after contact weren't that great. Avoided tackle rate was 19.2%.

That's 50th among qualifying running backs. Can I cut you off and ask you this, though? Sure. His metrics were so much better in his first two seasons, especially his second season. He averaged five yards per carry that year. He averaged four yards per carry last year. He averaged four yards per carry last year. It's almost like Travis Etienne.

What version are we going to get? I don't, you know, I wasn't, if he averages four and a half yards per carry, then he's probably going to have a pretty good year, I would say. I would too, but at least better than what I would expect. He would outperform my expectations. So if you're just looking at the Browns offense, which has obviously been very good for running backs in this defense gear,

look at the finish and, and their new offense coordinator got a thousand yard season. First time ever for James Connor, five yards per carry out of James Connor. First time ever for him. And so system carries over, you know, again,

I don't expect Ramon J. Stevenson necessarily do that but systems matter and so i think stevenson will be closer to what we saw his first couple years and again last year you know he was starting to get going before the injury i still think he's going to matter in the passing game not maybe to the level that he was with the the belichick whatever crap offens coordinators they were using there because mac jones was terrible and they didn't have anybody to catch the ball. I'm hoping this receiving core is going to be better, but I still think he's going to

be in the 40 catch range. And I also think that we're going to see a better offense than we've seen the last couple of years because of just the upgrades. The offense line will be better. The receiving core is going to be better. And hopefully most importantly, quarterback play will be better. So to me, he's right in the right spot. Very good.

Low end number two running back. Okay. I agree with you on the catches part, and I think the offense has no choice but to be better because of how much of a disaster it was last year. But I can't compare this version of the Patriots offense to not only the Arizonans offense last year, but previous Browns offenses when Nick Chubb was the running back.

It's like comparing apples to Volkswagen. It's not – But again, systems matter. And again, that Cardinal offense last year had. Otherwise, there is absolutely very little to compare between Nick Chubb and Ramond Ray Stevenson. They are not the same running back at all. Now, James Conner and Ramond Ray Stevenson, especially like current day James Conner, I can buy into that. There's a lot.

Look, it's not the same offense coordinator, but again, the system went to Arizona and for what it's worth, James Connor had his first thousand yard season and first time averaging five yards per car. Yeah. He had a career year. He was so good.

It's crazy. It's, it's a good point. It's an interesting point. Yeah. All right. I think Vermont, I don't want to be out.

I don't think I want to be out of Ramondre completely. You know, ADP is going to matter so much. I was just looking at NFC average draft position. And believe it or not, Aaron Jones is the first one to go in this group. Whereas that's really last in our consensus rankings in this group of 10 running backs. OK, so I think if you are in the Ramondre camp, the contract kills you. Why? Because it's pushing him up.

Right. Now it doesn't. Okay, I understand what you were saying. His wallet's fat, so who knows how he'll react. But it shows the commitment and that matters.

Absolutely. They seem to really like him like I was saying. Yes. Also, let me give you this stat because you talk about quality of offense. It matters. I've to really like them, like I was saying. Also, let me give you this stat, because you talk about quality of offense. I've said this a lot, but it matters a lot more for wide receivers than running backs. In PPR, over the last eight seasons, there have been 23 running backs who have finished top 12 on offenses that rank 20th or lower in scoring. That is 24% of running backs who have finished in the top 12 over the last eight seasons

have been on offenses that ranked 20th or lower in scoring. That is compared to only 15% at wide receiver. Bigger correlation between quality of offense and top 12 finish at receiver than there is at running back. And in the last, now you usually don't get elite running backs. This is not a Ramondre Stevenson thing. Nobody's calling him elite. You usually don't get elite fantasy running backs on terrible offenses, but we have had two guys finish in the

top three in the last two seasons on terrible offenses. Derek Henry in 2022 and Brees Hall in 2023. I just want to throw that out there. Okay, so right away, to me, that puts Ramondre in a bucket of low-end RB2 whose ceiling is high-end RB2. And we can say that about a number of the guys that we'll talk about today, but I think some of the running backs that are in this group have top 12 upside. Brooks, if he's healthy. Zamir White, if everything goes his way. Montgomery, we'll get close to it if Gibbs's healthy. Zamir White if everything goes his way. Montgomery will get close to it if Gibbs stays healthy.

If Gibbs misses a chunk of the season, maybe Montgomery does finish as a top 12 running back in PPR. Now, you said 40 catches for Stevenson. I think, Jamie, you threw that number out. That would be a huge drop for him. And we just went over why that might actually happen. But if you're giving me 40 catches for Stevenson, it's hard on a projection standpoint,

I feel like to rank him ahead of his Amir white because the mirror white, I think was on pace for 38 catches and Stevenson, like even if he doesn't get to 38, Stevenson just wouldn't have that big of an edge. And then white would probably have more carries. I think the difference is, like, yeah, White, I love the Alexander Madison comparison.

It's funny that they're on the same team. But White may just not be very good. I think he had two carries longer than 16 yards all year. Stevenson's not going to go out there and just suck and lose his job. So there's that safety net. Right.

And look, 40 catches, I'm just trying to be conservative here. So I think he's capable of more. He's proven that he's that safety net. Right. And look, 40 catches, I'm just trying to be conservative here. So I think he's capable of more. He's proven that he's capable of more. But you don't want to overvalue it when they just brought in somebody who's a converted wide receiver and who's done similar type of things in the passing game as he has. All right, how about we get to our next group of three then?

It's Jonathan Brooks, Tony Poll Pollard and Najee Harris. I don't, I, I feel like there were some similarities between white Stevenson and Montgomery, and that's probably out the door. Now similarities, Brooks Pollard and Najee Harris were drafted different players. How do you read?

One of those things is not like the other. One of those things is just not the same. Like what? Like, what do you mean by that? Because Najee doesn't have anywhere near the same type of explosiveness that we've seen from Tony Pollard or that we saw from Brooks when he was playing at Texas.

Yeah. Well, we get that. Who's your favorite? Brooks, your favorite in this group? Yes. Jamie, yeah, right? Like not even close? Yeah, for sure.

How do you rank them Brooks Pollard Najee Brooks Najee Pollard I have the same order back to back to back 22 23 24 all three for me are ahead of Ramadre

oh wow okay most carries in this group Brooks Pollard Naj, Najee. Najee. Most catches. Brooks. I think Pollard is probably the safest bet.

Can Najee Harris be better than what he's been last year? He was like 29th per game, basically. Yes. This offense will be better. Arthur Smith will get better production out of him. I like the fact that he lost weight. I like the fact that he's motivated to get whatever contract he could possibly get. And so Jalen Warren is a huge, huge speed bump, obviously,

from what he did a year ago. It would not be surprising based on how the Atlanta run game looked, where both guys are getting 200 carries, which is a big bump for Jalen Warren. But we saw Tyler Algier, for example, have 186 carries as the second guy last year behind B. John Robinson over 200 carries. So 233 is about the number for Najee if you're looking at what he's been in each of the first three years of his career, I think he still gets to that, but I think he's going to be more efficient doing it. And so I like the setup for him. I think we'll get back to being a little bit more involved in the passing game as well, because I think they'll take a little bit of that off of

Jalen Warren's plate also. But both guys I think are going to be in the RB2 range. I just prefer Najee. I think it's going to be a good year for him. I think Najee and Pollard are kind of like Romandre in that it's really tough to see them being a top 12 running back by the time this season ends. Brooks just has to get healthy and participate enough in training camp in the preseason

and make the coaches say, okay, he's good. Let him roll. I think that that's a stretch, but he does have that type of upside compared to Najee whose career, at least in terms of like his fantasy point production, you know, the emoji of the stock market tape, we're just,

you know, slide whistle straight down. That's been, that's been his career. He started off pretty well. And then he's had pockets of good. Like last year after they fired Matt Canada, he averaged almost 14 PPR points per game.

That was in seven games. I think that that's a ceiling now. I think you draft him with the idea that he'll get you around 12 PPR points per game. A couple of weeks, he'll be way better than that. A couple of weeks, he'll be worse than that. That's where it'll end up. Yeah.

I feel like Najee has to score. It's just kind of what it is with him. He has to get in. Pollard is the guy that I've been completely out on because I just feel like there's two-round difference between him and Spears. If you want a piece of it, why not take

Spears? They keep saying they're interchangeable. It's 1A, 1B. They are not putting Pollard ahead of Spears. They keep saying they're interchangeable. It's 1A, 1B. They are not putting Pollard ahead of Spears. We are putting him there, which I understand, but I haven't taken him because I have no idea what this backfield is going to look like, but I think it's going to be pretty even, at least to start. It's a constant theme too. It's not just Callahan. It's the running backs coach. It's the office coordinator. It's almost anybody that has said anything about the Titans running backs has said that they will be interchangeable. And it was from the owner's meetings. You know, I, I, I spoke to Brian

Callahan about that myself. So it's just a matter of, you know, I think if you're just looking at it from a cost perspective, yes. If you want a piece of the backfield, you just wait out and get spears, um, uh, after Pollard goes. But look, Pollard's the more proven commodity. And if you're going to buy what he's saying and you buy into PFF's ranking, he said from that Carolina game on last year was when he finally fell back to being himself. And PFF ranked him as the number one running back from, I think it was week 14 on. And so if those two things are accurate, which is hard to to dispute then he's got an opportunity hopefully to build off that and get back to maybe what he was doing two years ago now is he going to

be successful in the featured back role which is where he kind of struggled last year but again how healthy was he so you know people look at this titans offensive line and say can it get better i think the answer is yes you know they were they were pretty miserable year ago they year ago. They added cushion Barry, they drafted a guy, you know, so they have two significant upgrades that will hopefully make the unit better. The biggest addition for me is Bill Callahan, Brian's dad, who's, you know, one of the best offensive coaches in NFL history. So you have all those things working in place. So can both guys be, you know, successful to the point where maybe they're, they're both competing to be top 20 running backs. I don't know if that's necessarily the case, but both had over 50 catches last year, so they can

both play in the passing game. Both, I think, have the opportunity to be good runners. We haven't really seen it from Spears yet, but I think he's capable of it. If everything is telling you interchangeable, interchangeable, interchangeable, then you just wait it out and see which one will go later. In most cases, it will be Spears. Pollard, the PFF thing was he was the highest graded running back from week 11 on. And so I would see how many fantasy points did he average from that point on. It's 13.7 in PPR and then down to 10.5 in non-PPR. He was at 12.5 PPR points weeks one through 10. So he was a little bit better, but it's not like he blew the doors off the thing and was, um, you know, one of the elite running backs in fantasy. He wasn't a league winner for anybody. I think, I think you nailed it, Jamie. I think we're going

to see these two interchanging, uh, maybe even on like a drive to drive type situation. And when you started Titans running back, you just cross your fingers and hope that you're starting the right one. I would obviously much rather draft the guy who is not only younger and proved as as a rookie that he's capable of playing in that passing downs role but you're getting them two rounds later so it's a cheaper cost with tige spears before we even get to the last four guys in this group which are in order of our consensus rankings uh james, DeAndre Swift, Zach Moss, and Aaron Jones. You know, we're talking about rounds five through eight. Tight end, if you didn't get one of the top four,

you could be looking at Evan Ingram or a lot of people like George Kittle. Kyle Pitts could be in this range. Quarterbacks are going to be plenty of good quarterbacks in this range. Wide receivers, there will be at least, there will be a handful that you really like. Are we saying

that you probably should not draft two of these 10? I think it depends on the cost. If you go zero RB because we are in the round six range, which is where that starts, or hero RB and you're looking for your second running back.

Any of these guys qualify as very good know, very good second running backs. If you're getting them round six, round seven in that range, it's around five. I think where it feels a little uneasy to be drafting these guys because of some of the potential downfalls, age, offense, competition, all the things we've talked about. So it's just a matter, I think, of how your build goes. Now, when you start to compare this group to the next group of Spears and Jalen Warren and Benson and Corum. But they're actually Mostert. Well, I'm just throwing out names.

Chase Brown. It's important to note, though, because I really think it's not that. It's Javante, Jalen Warren. Well, if you go by ADP, like most certain Aaron Jones and James Conner are ahead of several of these guys. That's true. Yeah. So, you know, it depends on what you're looking at, but yes, you're right. Those guys are all in the same, you know, very giant canoe that it could be, you know, problematic for what you're trying to do. But again, that sort of pushes down some of these guys as well. And so if you're getting them at the right cost, it's perfect.

But if you're reaching for them, that's, I think, where it becomes a problem. Okay. We're going to take a break here and come back and talk about the last four in this group. And I already mentioned Aaron Jones looking at one NFC average draft position. He's the first. He's RB18 off the board. DeAndre Swift is RB22 off the board. James Conner, 23.

And then Zach Moss is RB30. He's definitely the best value. Although Jonathan Brooks is RB31 in NFC ADP. So there will definitely be some differences between the consensus rankings and average draft position. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Metrolinks and Crosslinks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress.

Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what, just like that? Just like that.

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we have talked about so far Zamir White, Ramondre Stevenson, David Montgomery, Jonathan Brooks, Tony Pollard, and Najee Harris. We have four more. What do you think? Should we go all four here, or should we split it into twos, twosies? All four. Oh, whoa. Okay, no problem.

James Conner, DeAndre Swift, Zach Moss, Aaron Jones. James Conner, DeAndre Swift, Zach Moss, Aaron Jones. Dave, how do you rank them? Conner's at the top of the list. He's actually 20th for me among running backs. He's behind Montgomery. He's behind Zamir White. And for now, he's ahead of Jonathan Brooks.

We'll see if it stays that way. Conor's first. Zach Moss is next. And then it's Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift. Swift is the last of this group for me. He's my 10 of 10. And Jamie? Swift is first for me.

Then Moss. Then Conor. Then Jones. uh swift is first for me then moss then connor then jumped is how far is swift from that white montgomery i think you have white ahead of montgomery maybe a montgomery had a white i don't right now it's montgomery ahead of white uh he's he's behind them but he's behind brooks he's behind stevenson he's behind naji okay so he's a little closer to the middle for you maybe like you're sixth running back out of these 10 sounds about right okay well let's a little closer to the middle for you, maybe like your sixth running back out of these ten? Sounds about right. Okay. Well, we can start with DeAndre Swift.

I mean, obviously Dave is a lot lower on Swift than Jamie is. Dave, what is it that spooks you a little bit about Swift? He's going to be sharing with two running backs in an offense with a rookie quarterback that just added multiple pieces to its passing game and should be a pass-friendly offense. He's been under 14 PPR points per game each of his last two years with two different teams. The team last year, he lost out on touchdowns at the goal line. I don't think he'll lose out on as many this year in Chicago, but he'll lose out on some, not only because of

Caleb Williams, but also because the Bears have options at running back. They don't have to put Swift into a spot, a scenario, a down and distance or a goal line situation that isn't conducive to his game. I don't think he's going to see huge target share. He averaged under 10 PPR points per game in his last eight games. He just got paid a ton of money. I just think it's a bleak situation for him. I'm worried about him getting overdrafted and not coming close to value by the time the season ends. I'm worried he won't finish as a number two fantasy running back. Okay, DeAndre, so if Jamie make the case for Swift. Yeah, I'm actually hopeful that they're going to remove

one of the bodies in the backfield. So that's kind of where I have him right now. I will drop him if we get to middle of training camp and there hasn't been a move made but i'm kind of expecting based on some reporting that you know khalil herbert could be shopped and and maybe leaves the the team which obviously will change the i'm sure ranking for a lot of people but um yeah i think that that herbert that excuse me that that swift has an opportunity to look he showed that he could be a workhorse guy last year which which I think was big, you know, because he had the injury concerns and had multiple games last year, you know, with 18 plus carries 20 plus carries the touchdown luck was clearly not in

his favor. I think that will change this year because of the offense that he's playing in. Now, will he be a good fit for Shane Waldron system? We'll find out. Um, obviously they paid him enough that I think that they're hopeful that'll be the case, but he's been productive when he's been healthy over the last two years. And I think this is the opportunity for him to sort of showcase himself a little bit. So I'm excited about Deandre Swift again, especially if somebody does leave the backfield.

Now that stays the same, like I said, maybe I'll have to reconsider it, but based on, again, some of the stuff that I read, I do think that Khalil Herbert may not be a Chicago bear for long. Okay.

Yeah. I mean, that's obviously an interesting thing there. And honestly, if you're sitting there in a dynasty league and you have Khalil Herbert or you want to trade for Khalil Herbert, there are some destinations that would make sense that maybe he'd have a big boost. He's been a pretty good running back.

Not a good pass protector, but been a pretty good running back. So let's talk about the old guys here, James Conner and Aaron Jones. And Jamie, you said that you're more or less out. Obviously, no one's going to be in on Aaron Jones if he's going as RB18 like he is on NFC. James Conner is RB23, ahead of Zamir White, ahead of Tony Pollard, ahead of Zach Moss, Jonathan Brooks. But yeah, speak about those guys, the two old guys, Jones and Conner, Jamie.

I mean, the biggest thing is age. Conner's missed three or more games. I think it's three of the last four years. So that's a obvious concern when you have to, you know, consider drafting him. And they brought in somebody who's a pretty talented running back and Trey Benson, which he didn't have to deal with in any of his time in Arizona from a talent standpoint. So we'll see how much that matters. But last year, you know, when you look at it, very good season running the ball, you know, over a thousand yards, first time in his career, five yards per carry career, high season, low in catches per game, 2.1. Last time he was that low

in terms of a pass catcher was his rookie season when he was a little, little seldom used guy in Pittsburgh at that time. So are you just relying on him as a runner? And that's a little scary for me when it comes to Connor at his age, because we know the passing game is going to be better. And so does Benson cut into his rushing production? And if that's the case, are we looking at a trap back here? And so 2.1 catches per game is very scary for him. So I hope it's more than that. He's been very successful catching ball. One of the best as we've seen in his time in Arizona and look, he's outperformed his ADP. He's outperformed, I think, the expectations for him. He's a great story based on everything he's had to overcome.

But I think just based on everything that's going on with him this year, age, competition, lack of work in the passing game, especially at this cost, I'm out. Can I just bring up something? Two years ago. 40-catch pace with Kyler Murray. Josh Dobbs did not throw to his running backs backs but that's still pretty low for him but 40 catches was the pace for uh with kyler murray and he was on pace to be basically a top five running back he averaged like almost 18 points

per game 17.8 ppr points per game in last eight games with carry over Murray. Carry over. Yeah, I mean, the thing that you worry about is that Trey Benson comes in and becomes a more physical back and kind of just lets himself off the chain a little bit. And on top of his speed, which is clearly better than James Connors, he just takes off and leaves Conn a, in a very limited role. Kind of like what Jamie talked about earlier on in James Connor, James Connor's career, that, that could happen. That's part of, that's, that's another big drawback to James Connor.

But if Connor just does what he does, which is produce when he's on the field, I mean, two years ago, he averaged 2.5 catches per game. That's 0.4 catches more than we did last year. He averaged 16.5 PPR points per game. A lot of that was touchdown-based, but I think that's one role that he can keep, is working in the red zone. They'll trust him ahead of Trey Benson in that situation.

I think he's got potential for a lot of touchdowns, presuming that he plays 13-plus games. Still think he's going to have a lot of games with a lot of, you know, 15 to 20 touches. And I still think he's a good player. So I, and I think the arrow is up on this offense. I think that it's going to be tougher to defend the run with Marvin Harrison there, Trey McBride there, uh, this and Kyler Murray being healthy adds to his efficiency. I think James Conner is actually kind of a sneaky good RB, too, because I think he does have upside.

Maybe not top 12, probably closer to top 15, but still someone who does have the track record of at least 15 PPR points per game and might be able to get there again this year, even with Trey Benson on the Cardinals. I tell you, we were talking about him last year as a great value, one of the steals in the draft. And he ended up, he did miss some games,

but he ended up as a top 12 running back per game, his 13th per game in full PPR. In all three seasons in Arizona, James Conner has been at worst 13th per game in every format. So he's been a low-end number one running back three straight years in Arizona, but 29 is scary. He's 29. scary he's 29 aaron jones is 29 we have seen guys like melvin gordon absolutely fall off a cliff uh let me see if i can find 29 yeah i just

searched for melvin gordon he can't be in my notes too many times right um the shawn mccoy and demarco murray the shawn mccoy melvin gordon they all struggled at age 29. And it was like a really quick, just awful decline for some of these guys. Austin Eckler just had his age 28 season, which was bad. So, you know, it's a worrisome year. And it's a lot like wide receiver. Man, age is really a big thing this year. I feel like more than most years. It's been a big thing for many years.

Okay, but you had older guys perform well last year. It feels like there's more players. There are more players that are turning 29, 30, 31. I mean, Derrick Henry's metrics last year at 29 weren't great. No, they weren't. They weren't bad. But I think you had a lot of guys who were approaching a tough age who had really good years last year. And now we have to evaluate.

Can they do it again? Why is James Conner better than Aaron Jones? Well, I mean, if you're just talking about from an injury standpoint, I mean, Aaron Jones was so brittle last year. You know, the hamstring injury early in the season, knee injury toward the end of the season. You know, I mean, we're all going to look at what he did at the end of last year. You know, the hamstring injury early in the season, knee injury toward the end of the season. You know, I mean, we're all going to look at what he did at the end of the year, five straight games over 100 yards rushing, you know, helping the Packers get into the playoffs and get to, you know, the two games.

But it's hard to forget about what the majority of the year was, and he was not healthy and not there for you. And so, you know, clearly when the Packers saw the ability to get an upgrade, they jumped at it, getting Josh Jacobs. And so Minnesota felt like they settled for Aaron Jones, who they know. They faced him twice a year for his entire career. And I'm sure his ability to catch the ball on this offense is going to matter. But can he stay on the field?

Can he be productive in an offense that hasn't exactly been successful from a running standpoint? Now, again, you can point to talent. Madison, no rushing touchdowns last year. We know Dalvin Cook the year before struggled. You know, so it's not exactly been great in Kevin O'Connell's system. Hopefully Aaron Jones is going to dispel that. But again, age for me, injury from what we saw last year. You know, I just especially again at his cost, you know, CBS ADP was the 21st running back you mentioned the nfc adp is the 18th like it's no way no way i

could buy him in that cost even if you if you cherry pick his six games where he had at least 17 touches he averaged 14.3 ppr points per game that's close to what he averaged in 2022, which is 14.6 and 2021, which is 14.5. There's your ceiling. I hesitate to buy into Minnesota suddenly becoming a run friendly offense. I know that Sam Darnold could be the quarterback or a rookie JJ McCarthy could be the quarterback. I think Kevin O'Connell is who he is and he's got those wide receivers. And I think he ends up still throwing the ball a lot. That's not good for any running back. There's also been talk that Ty Chandler's looked good

and that he could get a nice piece of this backfield. There are a lot of liabilities for Aaron Jones that makes me want to just – I think I'm only drafting Aaron Jones as if I go zero RB. That's the only way I'm taking him. Obviously, yeah, I think on Fantasy Pros, he's RB20 or something like that. So we can identify, if you take away one thing from this show,

it's that we think that Aaron Jones is going too high in drafts. He's 27th in our consensus rankings, PPR. But, you know, you talk about them throwing the ball so much. They hadn't really thrown the ball to running backs all that much. But what if they,

do you think there's a scenario where he's a 50 to 60 catch guy, Aaron Jones? I mean, there certainly is a scenario of it, you know, you know, with McCarthy, if he's not going to challenge down the field.

And again, you know, comparing Aaron Jones to Alexander Madison, there's no, there's no comparison and what one can do as a pass catcher based on their careers. So if, you know, O'Connell views that as something that's an asset to him, which we talked about.

I think you brought this up, Adam. What if the system changes to fit the quarterback, right? You're talking about that in regards to that. I think Dan was talking about that. I'm sorry. Dan was talking about it in regards to Jefferson. So what if O'Connell's catering it to his strengths um one of the 36 teams in the nfl um so he was catering his strengths and uh and that they do involve jones in the past i mean it's certainly

possible but you know you just look at the track record and dave said it you know there's there's really no there wouldn't be that much of a surprise, at least for me, if Ty Chandler ends up being a bigger factor than we anticipate because Jones just can't get the job done at 29. He's not 29 yet. He's 29 in December. But, you know, when these guys start to get older and they fall apart, it's hard. And they showed us last year, you know. Oh, no. Wait a second.

I think he's going to be 30 in December. That's what I think, too. I'm sorry. He's 29 now. That's a big deal. Yeah, he's in his second i think he's gonna be 30 in december uh that's what i think too i'm sorry he's 29 that's a big deal yeah he's he's in yeah i'll be 30 in december you know they showed us last year when a guy became available that they had some history with o'connell o'connor had um uh history with cam acres in los angeles and he became available and they went and got him if jones is struggling or injured, who knows what they do? I thought you were going to go a step farther and say that Ty Chandler is going to be the best running back for fantasy in Minnesota. He might be, you know, there are multiple paths for that to happen.

Sure. I got to talk about Zach Moss here. And this is not a guy that is... He's RB30 in NFC ADP. In fantasy pros, he's RB25. All right, that's not... Yeah, 25. And he's 26th in the consensus rankings, I believe, Zach Moss?

Yes. So I had been drafting a lot of him because he's usually the last one to go. That's kind of, I think, one of the themes from today's show is don't reach for these guys. Try to get the best value. What do you... But, you know, I got kind of cold feet just thinking

about it. Like, my case for Zach Moss has always been, Joe Mixon really hasn't set the world on fire as a running back. He has benefited from being in a great situation. He's caught a lot of balls on first and second down. He almost never catches on third down. He still is a factor in the passing game.

Plays for the Bengals. He's been a top 12 running back per game basis every single year, I think five of the last six seasons. And Zach Moss has had better metrics than him over that span. Maybe Mixon's a little better, but I don't think it's by much. But then again, I'm thinking like, I don't know.

Is Zach Moss really going to have a great season? That just seems like kind of a stretch, you know? I know I'm not giving like a big statistical breakdown here, but is he really going to do it? I don't know. It just feels like I'm putting too much faith in him. Now, certainly he's not my number three or four running back, but, you know, I don't want to be too heavy on Zach Moss.

It feels like I could be a little overexposed. I feel the exact same way. Like we're drafting him not because of who he is, but because of where he is. And listen, you laid it out at the beginning of this offseason how he's just much more efficient than Mixon. 15 plus PPR points per game, then Zach Moss should be able to at least do that. If not be a little bit better. And you're not thinking about the six or seven pitfalls that are Zach Moss's injury track record, which is really very long or Zach Moss not being great. Although that's a little bit tough to measure because how many times has he actually been the guy, but that's another pitfall.

He's never really been the guy before. Now in his age 26 season, he's about to do it. He's got Chase Brown breathing down his shoulder. Say that six times fast. And that's somebody who could take work away, not necessarily even just as a passing downs guy. He could be a running downs guy. He's younger, and he's showed some explosiveness last year.

So there are a lot of concerns with Moss, but I keep going back to draft value. And if I'm getting him in round seven or eight, I can begin the season with him as a starting running back on my fantasy team. And I'll feel okay about it. I think the positives are, you know, what he did last year, clearly, you know, to Dave's point, you know, when he's never really been the guy, but the Colts gave him that opportunity and he was a superstar, you know? And so that's, that's a plus, you know, by all accounts, this is the type of system that he's been the most successful in running out of the shotguns, what the Bengals do as much as anybody. So that's a plus. The problem is, is that he's had a hard time staying healthy. They brought this up and Dave did a great job researching this from his time at Buffalo. Um, the miniicamp, um, observations on chase Brown have been exciting, you know, so what

he should be able to do as a pass catcher. Now, can he be the lead guy? That's the question, because if he can, and it's not an injury, does he have an opportunity to overtake Moss, but can Moss stay on the field? And that's, I think the question. So he felt like I, I, I share a lot of the same sentiments that both you guys said in regards to him. But there's going to be a lot of FOMO for me with Zach Moss because I do think that if he stays healthy, he's going to be very, very good because of what you said, Adam. Joe Mixon has done very well in this offense.

If Joe Burrow stays healthy, they're going to move the ball up and down the field. So touchdown potential is there. You know, there's just a lot to like about him and he doesn't have to be a third down guy because we've seen mix and catch a lot of passes on first and second down. That's just been a staple of this offense. So there's a lot to like about Zach Moss, really the downside is injury, you know? And so it's just, he's, he's never been able to sustain the lead role mostly during his time in Buffalo. But is that fair? Has he overcome those concerns now that he's a little bit more of a seasoned veteran?

But to what Dave was saying, it felt like Zach Moss was on his way out of the league before the Colts gave him that opportunity last year. Tell me this. What is Chase Brown's ADP? Okay, let's look at, uh, because the idea being I could draft both these guys. Yeah.

And now I'm covered. I know the, the Bengals are going to use Trayvon Williams on third downs a little bit too. They did that last year, but he doesn't really get touches. I'm not, I'm not worried.

Okay. So now I'm spending a pick in round seven and round 10 to get the Bengals running back. Love it. I'll reach into round nine if I have to. If I'm going zero RB, yeah, I'll get both these guys. All right, so Moss also, well, I got to bring this up. He only has 75 catches in 53 career games. It's possible that Joe Mixon's just a better pass catcher than him,

and Joe Burrow says, yeah, I'm not going to throw my running back as much as I used to. I don't have Joe Mixon there. I wouldn't blame him, given his receivers and tight ends. But it's not just the beginning of last year. It was also the last four games of the 2022 season after Jonathan Taylor got hurt, and he was pretty good then, Zach Moss.

The fantasy points weren't really there because he didn't score, but he averaged 4.9 or more yards per carry in three of four games. He finished the season with 114 yards and a touchdown against Houston. He was pretty solid then. He played some bad defenses. All right, there you go. That's mid-round running backs, 18 through 27 in our consensus PPR rankings and wait for the value and probably don't want to take three of

them. Yeah. Yeah. There's good players available after them. There's Javante, there's Warren, there's Mostert and Jonathan Brooks, by the way, he's already 31 in NFC. He is RB, let's just see, he's RB 26 on Fantasy Pros ADP. As soon as he starts practicing, those numbers are going straight up. Jamie can set up the rockin' emoji tweet right now. Jamie's very good at that. Well, this is our Thursday episode. I am on a mini vacation we'll be back with monday this i think it's going to be dave and heath actually because i'm going to take my day off because i just don't want to you know i want to oh thanks just leave the work for

me yeah well you know you come back i don't have to do it i'll let dave do it i'll let heath do it i'm gonna go sit and take it where are you going on your vacation? Just going to the Jersey shore. I've never been to the Jersey shore. All right. So you'll have a good time. I think we'll have a great time. And I don't want to work the day after I come back from vacation. You know,

it's going to take a long time to unpack and do laundry and all that. I don't want to work. I'm going to take Monday off. Gotta get ready for softball. Jim Tan laundry? Yeah. You know, I never once saw Jersey Shore until they did the reboot

a few years ago I watched like an episode you've watched more than I have have a good trip and have a great weekend everybody we'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today