Fantasy Football Today - PICK SIX NFL PODCAST CROSSOVER!!! Your Gambling Guide to Super Bowl LIV (02/01)

Episode Date: February 1, 2020

Will Brinson and a cast of characters from the Pick Six Podcast plus our own Heath Cummings give a full Super Bowl betting preview in this bonus episode of Fantasy Football Today. Listen for everything you need to know to gamble on Super Bowl LIV! First, Will Brinson is joined by Pete Prisco and R.J. White to go over 10 top props & picks for Sunday (4:30). Next, Will chats with Ryan Wilson and John Breech on some of the quirkier prop bets for SF and KC (33:00). Finally, Heath Cummings hops on to offer DFS advice (41:45). The Pick Six Podcast is your daily source for NFL news and analysis with a focus on gambling and Fantasy. Download and subscribe to Pick Six here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pick-six-nfl-podcast/id1263289980 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up everybody, welcome to the Pick 6 Podcast, CBS Sports Daily NFL Podcast. Sometimes looking for Brady Quinn, sometimes we even do emergency podcasts. I'm Will Brinson, I'm your host. This is the final, not the penultimate, the final episode before the Super Bowl and I couldn't be more excited to be joined live in person for the Mega Picks show by my guys, R.J. White, Pete Prisco. What's up? How you doing? I'm good.

Long week for you. I'm tired. This is the final pick six of the year for me. What are you talking about? Final pick six. Might be final pick six of your life. Maybe. Maybe would be.

I'm healthy. Despite the rumors you were spreading around about me. This is a little good-natured ribbing. You look great, Pete. I feel good. You've been on TV all week. I feel good. You're killing it. I feel great.

RJ, same for you. Thank you. Just kidding. You came down one day. One day is all you're getting from me with that traffic in Miami. Terrible, isn't it? Terrible. So we're at the Super Bowl. We in Miami. Terrible, isn't it? Terrible. So we're at the Super Bowl.

We're live on Radio Row. We're recording this on Wednesday. It is the Friday show. Coming up on the rest of the show, we also have DFS advice from Heath Cummings, a bunch of other picks and props, some chats with the Super Friends. It's a blowout show. So you're going to want to listen to the whole thing. At least part of it could even be recorded with a couple glasses of wine in a hotel room.

Who knows? We'll see. I think that's been done before. Our Monday show was incredible. Yeah? It was great. Was it an hour and a half? Oh, yeah.

It was easily an hour and a half. Wow. We couldn't stop. Poor listeners. If you want to join in, and if you're on Fantasy Football today, because this show is also being posted there, and you just listened to this for the first time, welcome, welcome, welcome. And if you want to join in, if you're a Pick 6 podcast listener or an FFT listener, and you want to try and win prizes, maybe I'll give away my Jamal Adams New Era hat.

Instead of giving it to my son, maybe I'll give it to a podcast listener. Because if you put that hat on your son, he might tip him over as big as that hat. Go to Facebook.com, search for Pick 6 Podcast, join the group, and we have a Google form where you can fill out and make your picks on props. We're going to do a bunch of those ourselves. You know, that just reminded me

of something. Tell me if this was cruel. When I was in high school, we used to bring our helmets home from football practice. They'd let us take them home. And my little brother, who's now 45 or whatever, was 10 years younger than us. He was like a baby. We used to put the helmet on him

and watch him tip him over. Tell me if this is cruel. Yes. Is that cruel? It's funny. Literally the first concussion study. I have three other brothers, so we'd all sit there and watch him tip over. My mom would go, stop it!

A friend of the show, Dave Damoschek, did a thing where he would set his baby up on the sofa and put a hat of one team and a hat of the other. Whichever way the baby fell, that's who he would pick for games. I think it was actually pretty successful. Like, maybe more successful. Remember when I had my cat? I put food on one team and food on the other. Where did the cat go?

That's one week. Cat had a better week than I did. Couldn't have had a worse year than me. That is not surprising. Cat had a better week than you. You weren't much better this year. I don't know what you're talking about. So here's what we're going to do for the contest.

And so speaking of bad years, Pete also had a bad playoffs. I actually had a pretty good playoffs. I had a good second week and split last week. but I just didn't have any money left to bet. So you lost. You had a good week, but you lost all your money. I went 0-4 the first week, and it wiped me out. So then I went 3-1 the next week, but I didn't have enough money to recoup any of it. And then last week I went 1-1.

Yeah, but on your picks for this podcast, you went 0-2. Because you had the— No. I had the Chiefs, but I had a two-par. He was 0-2. Because you had the... No. I had the Chiefs. But I had the two parlays. He was 1-1. He just put together two parlays. Right.

I was trying to go for the... I had no money. Both the parlays lost. Right. But I was trying... Correct. But I was trying to win because I had no money. RJ is firmly in the lead.

He's done. I made a bunch of picks, too. I bet exactly what you have left. So I can come down and you can easily catch me. I haven't put my official picks in for that. We're throwing that contest to the side and going with a new contest

to make it more fun for the listeners and us. I will try and catch RJ. We'll update everybody afterwards. You will know by the time you listen to this podcast what props and stuff I like and what bets and everything. That won't be an issue. RJ will, of course put his together uh we have identified for this for the contest that involves the fans 10 total bets that we're going to pick um and we're going to put those up on social as well these are odds coming from william hill and uh we'll dive in first with

the game itself 49ers at chiefs rj chiefs minus one yeah i Yeah, I went back and forth. It's obviously a tough matchup. You're making fun of me for going back and forth. I'm not going to hedge my bets. I'm going to say the way I think it's going to go is San Fran. I'm going San Fran plus one. I think they're the worst possible matchup for the Chiefs. That front four can get pressure without needing to send blitzers. But they are talented at all three levels.

I mean, they have Quan Alexander back at linebacker, although he was limited to start the week in practice. And then they have a great secondary there too. I think they'll keep Mahomes under 300 yards. That's another prop. I think the number is 305.5. I like them to keep him under that. They're not going to let the Chiefs build a big lead.

And then when the game's close, you've got to lean on the 49ers running game and defense. So I think all that pre-stand motion is going to confuse the Chiefs a little bit. And then even if the 49ers decan, slow down Mahomes, I do think that Garoppolo has a chance to come out and win the game anyway because there was that Saints game. He went 48-46. He led them to the wagon win.

So it's not a worst-case scenario if Garoppolo has to get into a shootout because he's proven he can do it. So 49ers plus one, I like the scenarios a little bit better that way, so that's where I'm going. Do you think the 49ers are actually the better team? Overall, I do. I think you take Patrick Mahomes 10 times out of 10. You'd probably take the Chiefs offense, but you throw all the aspects

of the game in there. I'd rather have San Francisco. I'm going with the Chiefs. I don't love it, though, at all. I'm with you guys. I went back and forth. I just think it's so evenly matched, this game. There's certain things I've seen that discourage me from the Chiefs, one being what the Chargers did to them in two games. Same defense, same style of defense. And guys I talked to at the 49ers at media night said, you're a smart man if you think we're doing the same stuff. So I think they're going to play the same style of defense. That concerns me because it makes him be patient. And can he be patient?

Because that's not something he likes. And so I think Mahomes... The other thing is mobile quarterbacks that give them the 49ers fits. They've had great success against everybody except the mobile quarterbacks. So I think that's an advantage for them. In the end, I go quarterback. I'm taking Mahomes, and I'm taking the Chiefs minus the point. Do you think the – my thing is I'm taking the Chiefs as well.

I have this – he mentioned this. Like I took the Chiefs in week 16. I put $100 on it and said I think they're going to win the Super Bowl 7-1. Pretty good odds. I should probably hedge out and take the 49ers some here, but whatever. My concern is that there's just something nagging about it. It's like the history of defenses in these games. And, like, you remember the Peyton Seahawks Super Bowl,

like the Broncos Seahawks Super Bowl. I mean, like, that can't be like this, right? Well, here's the other one. Somebody told me this stat, and I haven't verified it, but any team that's gone into the Super Bowl with 57 or more sacks in a season is 10-0 against the spread. It's a very random, like, number. That's a lot of sacks, though.

Right. That means you're a good pass-rushing team. Yeah. But I think if you break a good pass rushing team. Yeah. But I think if you break down every single Super Bowl matchup in history, I don't think the best pass rushing team is going to win 100% of the time. No, but what do the 49ers have sack-wise? They have over 57. Yes.

It's just an interesting stat. They either have 57 or 15. I think they have 57. I think that's probably the reason why the stat is at 57. Yeah, that sounds like a lot. I thought they were pretty close. I will tell you in one second. Hold on. I think the Chiefs ranked like 11th in sacks. I mean, that's a lot

of sacks for a team. 57. I think we have the prop total sacks on here. When I was doing my research, if you add the two teams together, it only came out to like 93. So 57 is a lot. that's a lot of sacks that's what i'm saying so again i didn't verify it i just if it's true that's pretty interesting it tells you that the pass rush team in the super bowl is can be dominant i'm sure the

broncos team that won that year had 57 i think seattle might have had 57 that year 48 for the 49ers maybe they don't have 57. Or it's 57 including playoffs, but I don't know. Yeah, it could be including playoffs. That might be it. I mean, the thing with Mahomes, he only sacks 17 times a season. And he didn't play a full season, so it's hard to put the numbers into context. But his ability to get mobile, and I think the other thing that the Chiefs can do early on,

to me, it is critically important. I think the Chiefs can come back if they get down, but I think it's critically important that whoever's going to win this game has to get up early. I think forcing the 49ers to throw a lot with Jimmy Garoppolo and to get away from their run game is a huge advantage for the Chiefs if they can get a lead

and do that. Conversely, if the 49ers can get a lead, they can just uncork the sack and uncork the pass rush. You're going to get sacks. You're going to see Mahomes try and force the ball downfield. He'll potentially get antsy, get impatient, and make mistakes. Garoppolo is 7-1 in games. He throws for over 250 yards. So it's not like he can't do it.

Yeah, over 250 yards. He's 7-1. And he's 3-1 in games. He's thrown over 30 passes. So there's some data. Sure, you can't do it. Yeah, over 250 yards. He's 7-1. And he's 3-1 in games he's thrown over 30 passes. So there's some data. Sure, they can win like that. I mean, ideally, that's what you want to do. And I do think that if the 49ers, if the Chiefs fall behind like they did against the other two playoff games

and the other two against the Texans and against the Titans, they have big trouble against this team because this team can pound it. That's going to be a problem. And if the 49ers fall behind, to your point, I don't think they have to panic and just start chucking the ball with Jimmy G. Stay in your offense. As long as there's something fundamentally not working, then maybe

you go away from it. But, you know, if you can't get the first down on third and one, or somebody fumbles the ball, don't abandon what you're doing, what's worked for you the whole season. Just keep doing it. And then if he has to throw in the second half, that's when you do it. You play a lot of zone, the 49ers. We know that.

They like to drop four underneath and three deep or cover three and play that zone. RPO has messed with zone. That's going to be a problem for him. And also, ball comes out faster out of Mahomes' hands than they usually get home. That's one thing. The data says he gets the ball out of his hands quickly. And like you mentioned, when he doesn't, he gets outside and makes plays off schedule. So I think it's a tough matchup for the 49ers for that reason.

If he was a statuesque Peyton Manning back in the day, it would be probably a much easier matchup for the 49ers. And the other thing, too, is that Andy Reid, Brady Quinn talked about this a little bit, but he thinks that we're going to see a lot of screens early to sort of alleviate the pressure that the 49ers try and bring off the edge by trying to, like, go to Tyreek, go to Kelsey, go to – actually, Scott Pioli mentioned it, too, in the screen game as well. He thinks that they'll go to that screen game early and often. Do you think that could be a factor? I think the backs are going to be – I think the chief –

I think Damian Williams is an enormous factor in the pass of the game. And, in fact, the lock of the week, the lock of the week, is Damian Williams over three-and-a-half catches. Is it up to three and a half now? It's guaranteed a lock. And the reason I say this, in the two games against the Chargers, who play the same style of defense, he didn't play in the first one. McCoy did.

He had six targets. That's by far and away the most he had all year. When Williams played in week 17, he had seven targets, the most he had all year. They drop out. You get the ball out to the back, and he goes and makes it. And not even in the screen game. And he'll get involved in the screen game, too. I think that's best prop of the week.

Okay. Heath Cummings talked about that as well. He likes Davey Williams for DFS purposes as well. What about the total? Do you think it's correlated, RJ, with who wins this game? I think it is. I think if you like the Chiefs, you're going to want the over. Since I'm on the San Fran, I'm going the

under. I think it's ballooned a little too high at 55. My theory of the game is that the Niners will be able to slow down Mahomes and limit the possessions. Niners de-ranks number one in net yards per pass attempt. They've dominated two good offenses in the playoffs. And that offense can chew up clock with the run game. If you have long drives, clock's running. The Chiefs are going to get the ball 12 to

14 times. If you make them, only let them have it 10 times in the game, you're going to limit the number of points. And these two offenses struggled in the red zone. I think they both ranked around 21st, 22nd, somewhere around there. So that could turn some TDs into field goals or turnovers on fourth and short at the five-yard line if you're going for it. So I do think it'll go under. I think people are going to be surprised that it's not a high-scoring, high-octane game as far as the scoreboard is concerned. I assume you like the over.

I like the over. The number is what now? 55. Yeah, I don't think it's going way over, though. I picked 31-27, so I think it's going over. I mean, like, to me, my initial lean when it came out on Sunday, I think I said this on our YouTube show. I said, I like the under, but obviously wait and let it run up.

Because you knew it was going to move up. This is two high-scoring teams. They like to put up points. I just think we could see maybe that both teams start out slow, like a heavyweight type of boxing match or a technical boxing match where you feel each other out. You're not aggressive early. You don't want to take those trick plays. I think the first half under is a very nice bet as well.

And I like the second half over in that instance as well. First quarter under, too, you can get it at 10 points. I mean, I don't think there's going to be more than 10 points. Right, and if you get one long drive from the 49ers, I mean, there's no way you're getting 10 or 11 points. So I would agree with that. I'm going to go under. I know the Chiefs and the under doesn't correlate, I don't think.

But I think I can take it. It could be close. I mean, the Chiefs could win the game. I don't think it's going way over. I think it's going to be close. Yeah, yeah. So I'm going to take the under. But if I'm taking the under, I'm waiting until the last possible second to go under instead of taking it over.

Let's give it some props. Will the game be tied after 0- i have yes yes at minus 110 it's hit the yes has hit for the last five super bowls three times it's been an equalizer after the first score so the first team goes down gets a field goal the other team come back and get a field goal so i mean that's just how the super bowl's been going as you said they kind of feel each other out they don't want to take huge risks um so the spread says the game will be close so even if that doesn't happen you feel like the yes should happen in the third, fourth quarter. For sure.

So I think the yes should be the clear favorite. Minus 110 seems like the VIG is a little too low on that. So definitely the yes for me. I would say yes, too. I think these two teams are going to play a close game. I mean, the number says that. All the data says that. Watching them on tape says that.

They're evenly matched. So I will go yes as well. Yeah, I would go yes with this as well because it's a one-score game. There's a very good chance that things get tied up. I don't think this game goes to overtime, but it wouldn't be that stunning if they were very – I don't think this is – What are the odds on it going to overtime? Plus 800, I believe.

So 8-1? 8-1. If you want the yes, it's like minus 1,300 on the no. It's not that great. That's not that great. No. Yeah, you need to land a specific number. Yeah, yes to on overtime is always a sucker's bet.

It's happened once. You mentioned Damian Williams. Player to score the first touchdown. I'll list a couple here. Damian Williams, plus 600. Raheem Mostert, plus 7-1. Kelsey, 8-1. Hill, 9-1.

Interesting that most of the Chiefs are early. George Kittle 10 to 1. Debo Samuel 12 to 1. Coleman 14 to 1. That's a terrible bet right now because we don't know if he's playing. Emmanuel Sanders 16 to 1. Sammy Watkins 180 to 1? No, it's going to be 18 to 1. 18 to 1. Sorry, that's a Debo mistake. Well, got to throw him back in the dark.

81 on three touchdowns. All for the other game. Oh, but how about what he had a pretty good game. Yeah. I can say that nice. Oh, yeah. I think you pointed it out when you're going

on that list. The Chiefs seem to be a lot more favored in the 49ers in that one. So I would look to the 49ers as the value supposed to be a close game.

Why wouldn't the 49ers get the first time? You also don't know who's getting the ball first. Right. And both of these coaches script a ton

like all coaches do. But I mean, like these Brady, you know, Brady likes. Don't spoil it if it's mine. What is it? I don do. Brady, you know who Brady likes? Don't spoil it if it's mine. What is it? I don't know. Who's yours? I like Patrick Mahomes.

That's got to be a running touch. Who's Brady's? Juszczyk. Coming up, Kyle Juszczyk's over on receiving yards. Ten and a half. But they haven't thrown to him in the playoffs, though. Exactly.

That's why. What's Juszczyk on here? He might even be other. How would I have spoiled you? By the way, how would I have spoiled yours? Have I seen your paper? Did I see your data? Where would I have seen that?

Juszczyk is 75-1. You see this kid? That's MVP. I'm sorry. I was. Let's see. Where would I have seen your pick? If I was spoiling yours.

Who do you like? Damian Williams? Yes. Yeah. Why? Because I think the Chiefs will hit a big play, get down inside the five, and he'll run it in. Okay. What about you, RJ?

Yeah, I got Devo Samuel. 12-1. He scored touchdowns in four of the last six regular season games. 50-1 for juice check. 12-1. That's massive. Four of the last six regular season games, three times in that span, he was the first scorer. They got him in the end zone first.

He hasn't been as active in the playoffs, but I do think he's going to be a factor in this game. So I don't mind him at 12-1, a little bit lower odds than a lot of the other people. The one we did was what are the numbers for the first touchdown scored? So you could pick 1-10, 10 through 20, 20 through 30, and the one 40 through, I think it was more than 40 through 50, like 40 through 70 or something. 79, yeah. First touchdown longer than 40.

28, no. The jersey number of the player that scores the first touchdown. Oh. 2,800. Ooh. Would that be juice check? Yeah. It'd basically just be juice check.

Or a defensive touchdown. Right. Well, so in that case, instead of betting juice check at 50 to 1, you should go bet the jersey number. At 28 to 1? Oh, it's a place it plus 2,800. Okay. 2,800. Plus 2,800.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, I see what you're saying. All right, so go bet juice check. But you also get the defensive players. Could be a defensive touchdown. I like Allen. There's so many receivers with the numbers 11 to 19 now that I like 11 to 20. When it opened, it was, I think.

Did you say who yours is? Mine is Debo Samuel. Okay. I was trying to help the other Debo fill it in on the sheet. So when I initially was putting together our props guide, you can go to cbssports.com slash Super Bowl slash, I want to say. Ultimate props guide. Just search it and you'll find it. But I initially had the 11 to 20 on that prop at like plus 400, plus 450.

I was like, oh, I love that. And then before we put it up on the site, it went down to plus 220, like Pete was saying. Oh, really? I was like, oh, man. I still like it, but it's not as great. Longest TD of the game, over under 44 and a half yards, RJ. Yeah, I'm in the under on this.

I didn't shop around. You can easily get it at 47 and a half, I've seen. I yards, RJ. Yeah, I'm on the under on this. I think shop around. You can easily get it at 47.5, I've seen. I would take that. Each of these defenses only allowed three touchdowns over 47.5, or actually over 44.5 during the regular season. The Niners' pass rush makes it less likely the Chiefs are going to be able to have time to throw a deep pass. And a completely 60-yard touchdown like they did during the playoffs. So I would go under on that one.

I'm going over. And reason being, I think the Chiefs' offensive line in the postseason has been outstanding. And they haven't faced a front like this. But that group, remember early in the year they were banged up. They played much better in the playoffs all across the board, everybody. And I think they're going to protect them better. And if you protect them and block them, you'll beat them. And I think they'll make some plays against them.

I am bucking a trend here because they are the number one team in the league at 20 plus pass plays, but I think he's going to hit Tyreek Hill for at least one big one. Yeah, I would take the over in this one too. You need a big play to hit. Is the juice even on this? It's got to be. They typically move the yardage. Yeah, right. Exactly.

The downside, you don't like seeing the number come down. That indicates that they don't think it's going to happen, but I think there's so many guys on both teams who can just make an explosive play. Yeah, Mostert can rip one off. Mostert, Kittle. Damian Williams has two super long rushing touchdowns. Yeah. I mean, D.O. Samuel can do it.

Kittle can do it. And both of these coaches get their guys in open space so well that I think if you see them connect, you can see a lot of yak down the sideline. Great offensive minds. They're both great schemers. They can scheme something open. They'll get one of those. The 49ers could get one of those where they get everybody going one way and

throw back to Kittle on the other way. He's wide open, stand-up. Conversely, the other one I like, it's expensive. I think it's like minus 160 because we took it on our best prop bets or whatever, but the under on shortest TD at one and a half. I mean, that's... I feel like Damian Williams has scored 91

yard touchdowns. I don't know how long the year was. I don't have the exact dates, but it had hit for several Super Bowls in a row, and everybody thought last year was a year it was hit, and then there was one touchdown last year. That's right. Yeah, so we're due to get that one back. That's right.

Patrick Mahomes, over under 305... Is this correct? Is this a typo? I see Pete's bet here. over under 305. Is this correct? Is this a typo? I see Pete's bet here. Over under 305 and a half passing yards, Pete. Under. Wow.

I think he's going to throw about 290, but I do think he's going to throw three touchdown passes. So I don't think he's going to get all that yardage. I made my playoff living on the Patrick Mahomes touchdown props. Yes, you did. Yeah. I think he's going to have a good game, but it's not going to be a monstrosity in terms of yardage numbers, so I'm going under.

You like the Chiefs in a controlled type of game. Yeah, it's not going to be crazy. Even though he has the over. 31 points isn't crazy for the Chiefs. Against the Niners, it's pretty crazy. If they get to 31, he's probably going over 300 passing yards. I would think so. I'm going under.

If it's a blowout, then no. Yeah, sure. Just run it in the second half. Mahomes topped it. I said earlier, I'm going under on this. He topped this in the first five games of the year, did it just three times after that, including the playoffs. 49ers have allowed this to go over four times,

so the odds to me say it's going to go under. Who went over against the 49ers? I think Russell Wilson, I think, did it. Breeze, obviously. And I think it might have been Murray. Tyler? Let's see. I'm not sure.

I will tell you. Hold on. Those are the mobile quarterbacks. Give them trouble. That would be an interesting, let's see. One of them are. Yep. No, here are the ones that went over 300.

You're spot on. It's Arizona. Wait, no, hold on. I sorted the wrong thing. So the Saints had 349. The Rams had 323 in that Week 16 game. Ball got out. He got the ball out, which Mahomes does.

That part of that, everything was quick. Rodgers had, and that's the only two. Rodgers had 296. Yeah, that's net yards. I'm talking about like, because they subtract the sacks out of the passers. So Rodgers went over, and I believe week two, Dalton went over. Okay, yeah, and Andy Dalton went over as well. So Wilson didn't go over 300.

That is interesting. Good Lord. Four teams had less than 100 passing yards against the 49ers? Yikes. First, they're terrible teams. Some of them. One of them was the Packers. The Packers are a terrible team. Terrible. Imagine picking the Packers to Yikes. First, they're terrible teams. Some of them. One of them was the Packers. The Packers are a terrible team.

Imagine picking the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Or picking the Vikings to win the Super Bowl because he had a good game against them too. I will go over on this. Which one of us here picked the 49ers to go to the Super Bowl? Anybody? Nobody. Thank you. Jimmy Garoppolo, over under 239.5 passing yards.

I did like the Niners though because one of my bets was Garoppolo, over under 239.5 passing yards. I did like, you know, I'm going to do the Princeton hedge. I did like the Niners, though, because one of my bets was Garoppolo to win MVP, 75-1. Obviously, he's not going to win MVP. Yeah, you did. I was very positive on the 49ers coming into the year. But you didn't bet the 49ers. I'm going under on Garoppolo, too. If the game goes according to plan for the Niners, he's not going to have to throw a ton.

Even in the three losses, you know, you talked about what their record is when he throws for over 250. Even in the three losses, you talked about what their record is when he throws for over 250. Even in the three losses, he topped that just once. So just because they're behind doesn't mean he's going to be throwing a ton and going to cross this number. So that's why I like the under. I'm going the under too. Not because I don't think that they're going to be forced to throw, but I think that this run game is so good that even if they fall behind, they're going to stick with it to try and get back into the game. So I think I'm going to go with the under. I will go over because I think that the Chiefs will score early and the 49ers will have to chase points.

And as a result, Jimmy G will go over 239.5 passing yards. That's a really low number for him. It is. Yeah, but look what he's done the last two games. That's why it's so low. I know. I believe it opened 249.5 and it got banged and it came down 10. Oh, did it really?

Yeah. Because some other places probably opened it opened 249 and a half, and it got banged, and it came down 10. Oh, did it really? Yeah, because some other places probably opened it at 239, and so the books ahead of 249 are like, put it down, put it down, put it down. So people hammered it on to there. Yeah, they're not taking a lot of it. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's an interestingly low number. Very.

I thought that would be a lot higher than what it is. Do you think that indicates that the books think they'll run the ball more? No, they just know the offense. They run it. Even if they get behind, they run it. That's what they do. And like I said, those three losses, he got to 250 once. So I was prepared to go with the under because at 249.5, that's basically 250.

Total players with a pass attempt over under 2.5. This is my favorite prop of the whole year. Yeah, I love this one too. I went under initially. You were getting plus odds on the under, but everybody hammered that too it's up to one minus 140 now if you go under oh wow but just three guys aside from the quarterbacks uh threw a pass in 2019 for these teams combined you got the uh punter colquitt had a attempt and then um dante pettis and emmanuel sanders each had one now sanders has went for a touchdown so you could see them you know scheming

up something to get him a throw that's my my only concern on this. But it's already on tape. Chiefs are going to be ready for it. So maybe they just abandon that. And you're only betting on an injury if you go over on this part, I think. Right. Does one of the quarterbacks get hurt and then the backup has to come in? Well, they don't have a history of throwing trick plays in there. So I would say no.

My lean is to the under. I will take over. I think we do see a third player throw a touchdown pass. These are two. Pick one. Debo Samuel. Well, okay. These guys are too offensive.

Shanahan and Reed are too creative not to have something in there. And you know they've got to be worried about Samuel's speed. You know, you get in the ball in space, coming around the edge. He can easily take a pitch back and cock his arm. And all of a sudden he's throwing on the other side of the field to Kyle Juszczyk. And the other thing, too, is that these teams are, I think, number one and number two in terms of pre-snap motion, which means that you're going to have a lot of jet sweeps, fake jet sweeps, guys running across the middle, getting the ball potentially close.

You know what's amazing, too, is we talk about the Chiefs' offense, Chiefs' offense, Chiefs' offense. The 49ers score more points. Yeah, they do. Total sacks in the game, over, under, four and a half. I love the over here. It's minus 120 at this point. But these are two good pass rushes combined for 93 sacks in the regular season.

Like I said, that's about six per game combined. Offensive lines have had issues in the past. So I think because you're getting – it was at five at one point. And that point, you lean to the over, but you don't want to bet at the four and a half. You've got to go over. I'm going over, too. I think both teams can rush the passer. This Chiefs defense is much better than it was early in the year.

Chris Jones will be back at least healthier. He was a force when he was on the field in the championship game. He just didn't play that much. And when you look at what Clark has done since he was sick early in the year and he was injured, he's been much better. I think they rushed the passer. I think the 49ers can rush the passer. I'm going over.

They've also got, and not like they're necessarily really heavy blitzing teams, but they've got guys they can blitz, whether it's like Honeyback. The linebackers all can run. The linebackers, exactly, yeah. So I would take the over in that as well. And I think the one thing you have to worry about in terms of that is the game script where it just becomes a – like the 49ers get out of hand and are just running the ball downhill.

Then maybe they get the five sacks themselves. If they get a huge lead, it probably means they've got a strip sack or something like that and they're getting after Mahomes. So I agree with you. That's a pretty good over bet. I like that a lot. MVP. Well, let me –

Go for it. Unless you've got a theory. Yeah, go for it. So Mahomes is plus 100, minus in some spots. Jimmy Garoppolo, 2.5 to 1. Raheem Mostert, 7 to 1. Damian Williams, 10 to 1. Emmanuel Sanders, 15 to 1.

Kittle, 15 to 1. Debo Samuel, 18 to 1. Travis Kelsey, 18 to 1. Tyree Kill, 18 to 1. Nick Bosa, 25 to 1. Sammy Watkins, Kendrick Bourne, 30 to 1. Harrison Butker, 40 to 1. Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, 50-1.

Me, Cole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, 75-1. Kyle Juszczyk, 75-1 as well. Light the money on fire if you're getting down to the 75-1. Maybe. I mean, who was it? Dexter Jackson had that MVP out of nowhere? Malcolm Smith. Malcolm Smith had that MVP out of nowhere?

So my theory of the game is the 49ers win, so I think you've got to get the value there with the quarterback at plus 250 because the money line on the Niners is plus 100 so you're probably you're getting two and a half to one over what that is so i'm going to stick with my mvp bet from before the season you listed the odds from my homes is plus 100 i think that's what it has to be if you're going to bet my homes i've seen some sites list the mvp my homes odds at like minus 120 minus 130 it's like the money the money line is minus 120 just take the money line yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He can win an MVP if they lose the game. Right, right, right. What are the pass rushers in that?

What is Chris? Steve Ford is 8-8. What's Chris Jones? We don't have Chris Jones on our list. Chris Jones is 150-1. That man can wreck that game. Yeah, he can. He's capable of wrecking the game. I will say this, though.

And you know what? He's going to make a lot of money this week. Yesing the game. I will say this, though. And you know what? He's going to make a lot of money this week. Yes, he is. I will say this, too. Defensively, to be an MVP, you typically need to have this turnover statistics. No, you need to have a ton of statistics. Unless you have, like, impact places. Because Coney Ealy was on pace to get it.

The only guy that we almost saw win an MVP without, like, a defensive player, without huge defensive numbers was Deion Jones. When they were talking about giving to him and the Falcons were up big, he was just making an impact everywhere. But typically speaking, you're talking about this being voted on by journalists in the press box who were on a deadline, who were sort of kind of trying to figure out who the best one is. They struggled to figure out who it was last year. They're like, all right, just give it to Edelman. So, like, I think that's kind of important when you think about this.

Like it's not going to be – like Chris Jones is just tough. Like if he just is awesome – But if he has three sacks and they dominate and knock the ball loose and they pick it up or something, he could win it. And at 150 to 1, that's good odds. Yeah. Yeah. I would just say that, like, if the Chiefs win, it's probably Mahomes.

Right. What's Boze's odds? 25 to 1. See, I'd put money on Chris Jones before I put money on Boze. Oh, I agree. I think Tyron Matthew at 100 to 1 is interesting. That's a good odd. Those are good odds.

I would play Matthew. You know what? I'm going to play Matthew. I'm going to say that's my Super Bowl MVP. Don't mess with the Badger. I'm going to say the Honey Badger is the Super Bowl MVP. I think that Patrick Mahomes will probably end up winning it if the Chiefs win. One of my proclamations today on the show we just did was double-digit tackles and a pick for Honey Badger.

See, if they stop the run because Honey Badger's flying in and doing it and he makes an interception, they could give it to him. He'd have to almost score a touchdown, though. Yeah. Or force a fumble and get a pick. They tried to give Honey Badger to Heisman in college. I love giving it to him. I love. The kid's a fantastic kid.

I've gotten to know him really well, and I would love to see it. But I don't think those odds. I mean, 100-1, yeah, probably Chris Jones, 150-1. It's probably both those two. I'll take two. All right. You can take. Because you think the Mahomes will probably win MVP. Of course. Yeah, because you Jones, 150 to one. It's probably both those two. I'll take two. You can take... You think the Mahomes will probably win MVP.

Of course. Yeah, because you think the Chiefs will win. If they win, he wins. Yeah, more than likely. But if you want to splash on something that's a longer shot, Pete and I both like Tyron Matthew, and I agree with you on Chris Jones. I think it's a nice long shot. I don't hate Garofalo at all. Yeah, and then realistic long shot bet, and bonus prop we throw in there. Will Tyron Matthew have an interception?

Yes, it's plus 450. Oh, that's a good... The 49ers get behind. That's the guy you think's going to get a pick. He doesn we throw in there. Will Tyron Matthew have an interception? Yes, it's plus 450. Oh, that's a good one. The 49ers get behind. That's the guy you think is going to get a pick. He doesn't play in the deep middle. That's the only problem. He plays in there. But, again, those little dig. He's just such a ball hog.

Like, they might catch him on one of those dig passes where they get the guy coming back. Yeah, bounce off somebody's hands and he's behind them. Yeah. Because he's just all over the field. Yep. What was I about to say? I love the Badger. The 100 Badger's great.

I had one more thing I was going to point out. Oh, you know who I don't hate? Tevin Coleman. If he plays. You were just saying throw the first touchdown out of the window, and it was like 14 to 1. Well, but he's 50 to 1 to win MVP. Like if the Niners win and he has 25 carries.

He's not going to get 25 carries with a bum shoulder. Probably not. Especially since the other running back went for 200 the last time out. Why are you going to overwork Coleman? They're not going to give most 29 carries this time. No, but I know. They're going to split them up. At the best, they'd split carries.

You're going to win MVP? Maybe Coleman's the guy who scores the touchdowns. That's not going to be MVP. Okay. We will revisit this on Sunday night if it happens. Yes, we will. For now, we're going to take a break. When we come back, more Super Friends props.

We'll do some DFS with Heath Cummings. Great season, guys. Yes, sir. Fun. Talk to you never, Pete? Never. You're done. I'll talk to you guys later.

You killed me already. What are you talking about? All right. Welcome back to Radio Row. Pick 6 podcast here at Super Bowl LIV. CBS Sports HQ. We are live in Miami. Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson, John Breach.

Let's look at some fun props for the Super Bowl, though. By the way, coming up shortly, we'll have Russell Wilson, Seahawks quarterback, NC State guy. I don't know if you know that. But first, we'll get to some fun props. And this is actual stuff you can really gamble on. Super Bowl LIV. The coin toss, of course.

This is very simple, John. You can disagree with me and you will be wrong. Tails never fails, my friend. That is correct. See, that's what people say. That's what you think. But that is incorrect. What's the saying for heads being? Tails is never the call.

George Washington, man. You stare at that quarter of your whole life, it's always heads. Do you think that the commemorative coin is George Washington? No, I don't, but that's why I always pick. I didn't have a commemorative coin as a kid, so the ones I flipped had presidents on them. I don't know which money you use, which currency. Brinson, who knows?

Hey, look, if you pick heads, you're all meds. That's the saying. That's the saying. Very good. I's the saying. That's the saying. Very good. I'm taking heads. And the meds. Yeah, that answers it. You can also bet on the national anthem.

The funny thing about the anthem is that when you get in the press box and you're waiting for the game to start and they start singing it, literally 75% of the press box takes out their phones and starts a little timer, and then everybody starts tweeting about how long it was, including me, because I tweet about everything. How long will it take for Demi Lovato to sing the national anthem over under 120 seconds, a.k.a. two minutes? I have to ask John first.

How long does it take you typically to sing a national anthem? Me, since I don't know all the words, I have to, like, look down at my hand to read them. Probably three minutes. Okay. I'm going to go under two minutes for Demi because Breach, as he points out, takes much longer. So I think two minutes seems like a normal time to go under on. That is a critical mistake. As a Demetria Lovato fan who has been following her since the Disney Channel,

that's a real first. I was like, I was going to unschool here. I think it goes over. I think she... The over is minus 220 and the under is plus 180. It's heavily juiced. The singers, they belt out. This is their time on the national stage.

They have 100 million people watching. They're going to carry each word. They're going to elongate it as long as possible. So, Wilson, I know you love that juice. I think Demi's going over. You always take the over on the anthem. Never take the under. I don't.

I'm crazy. Okay. You're rogue like that. What anthem. Never take the under. I don't. I'm crazy. Okay. You're rogue like that. What about the length of the final word, brave? Can you sing brave for six seconds? Brave. That's pretty good. That was easy.

I've done it for a while. Maybe you should sing that. I just might. Over five and a half seconds is minus 155. The under is plus 135. I mean, that didn't even feel like it was that long. It felt like you were tiring out a little bit in four seconds. Right, but I'm not Demetria Lovato, so I think over easy.

And you know what I will say is I feel like there's some crowd part because that's when the crowd starts cheering, and if they get loud, it kind of juices up the singer. I like the over here. Also, we are in a situation where it's an outdoor Super Bowl, right? So we have of course, it's an open-air stadium.

And I would assume that since this is the 100th year anniversary that they're going to have some sort of flyover. And I would expect that they want her to hold brave for a little bit longer in order to get the flyover. So you should match the over here. Whoever you're working with to put these wagers down allows you to parlay these.

Over five and a half seconds for Brave and over for the full anthem is a very nice anthem parlay. Sometimes you can't parlay the props. One mitigating factor, what if it's raining? They want to get out of there? Demi Lovato singing. Is that a concern or not for the hardcore better? That's a great point. Somebody might walk out there with an umbrella and make sure

she doesn't get electric. This is a professional organization. It's a Super Bowl, Ryan. This isn't a Thanksgiving bowl in your backyard. Will any scoring drive Oh, this is an impossible problem. We need Kenny White out here for this one. Will any scoring drive take less time than it takes for Demi Lovato to sing the national anthem?

Yes, minus 250. No, plus 170. In other words, will someone get the ball and score a touch or any score, I guess, if you'll go with count, faster than approximately two minutes? So my favorite prop bet this week is that the first team scores in less than five and a half minutes. Breach is taking the over on the anthem, so if the anthem goes five and a half minutes and I win, so I'm going to go yes. It's not going to take five and a half minutes,

so maybe three and a half minutes. I think we're going to have a quick scoring start to the Super Bowl. Well, yeah, and if you look at the anthem, let's say it takes two minutes and 20 seconds exactly. We're talking about two-minute drill at the end of the half. You know, Patrick Holmes gets the ball with 150 left in the first half. They get down. They score.

Boom. The prop wins with the yes. So I love the yes here. I'm going to take the yes. Yes is a no-brainer here. I mean, these teams are quick-scoring, explosive teams that have trick plays and defenses, I think, with playmakers who can create, like, I would assume that counts.

Does that count as scoring drive or does it need to be a full drive? No, because it goes in the book as a kickoff return as a scoring drive. Right. So I would assume like a defensive touchdown. Yeah. Cash the yes. There are a lot of ways to cash a yes, a lot of outs here. Number of Jennifer Lopez outfit changes.

Over 2.5, minus 140, under 2.5, plus 120. It's going to be three i think she had three uh costume changes during the press conference today so uh i think they're no i'm just kidding okay but it's going to be over because that's a big deal uh sort of a big part of the the presentation and the halftime show is how many different outfits you can wear over three john yeah absolutely j-lo as the resident j-lo expert here i it's gonna go over there. If you are doing the halftime show, you can't wear the same thing. That would be like wearing the same suit for a month straight for us. In a halftime show, you've got to switch at least three times. How many times have you worn the same suit for a month straight?

You don't want to know. What's the longest you've worn one outfit straight? In college, probably two weeks. It didn't change. You don't want to do laundry. It takes quarters, heads, probably two weeks. It didn't change. You don't want to do laundry. It takes quarters, heads, tails. Perfect. Number, jersey number of the first player to score.

1 through 10, 7 to 1. We can toss up some of these on the top. 11 through 20 plus 2. Here we go. We've got a great graphic that you can see. Interestingly, we talked about this on the podcast, on the Pick 6 podcast, for tomorrow's show with R.J. White and Pete Prisco. Kyle Juszczyk is, I think he's 44.

So you got 28 to 1 that Kyle Juszczyk could score a touchdown. Those are better odds. And you get the other players. I believe those are better odds than his actual will Kyle Juszczyk score a touchdown odds So, no TD scored, by the way, 250-1. I don't mind the Kyle Juszczyk action there, and I would be willing to dabble in that 44 range. What do you guys think about it? I was on the Kyle Juszczyk train until you just stole it from me.

I'm going to go 21-30. We probably should have talked about this show before we fired it up. I'm going 21-30, John, because Richard Sherman's going to have to pick six to get things started. That is a bold prediction. You know what? This just says first player to score. I was thinking Harrison Butker maybe, but it is ATD.

I'm going to take the 1-10 anyway and say Tyreek Hill gets that first touchdown. And at plus 700, I mean, that's a pretty friendly number for Tyreek Hill to get the end zone. That is a pretty friendly number. All right. Let's look at some field goal action because we have john breach our resident kicking the in fact the world's foremost nfl kicking expert yeah is that that's probably true i mean it might be in the nfl media anyway like not like an actual according to his twitter bio it's true and you know what guys my fun fact

of the week is that every super bowl ever played at Hard Rock Stadium has had at least one missed field goal. I like it. So shortest, and these are odds courtesy of William Hill, shortest field goal made over under 26 and a half yards. I think this one is going to go over because we're talking about the 26. Now when you say over, you mean that no field goal will be kicked. There will be no field goal shorter than 26 yards in this game because you're looking at two offenses. We get the 26-yard inside the 8-yard line. I think Kyle Shanahan knows he's going to need touchdowns to compete with the Chiefs. He is not going to kick a field goal from inside the 8-yard line.

I don't think Andy Reid will either. These coaches are both pretty progressive down there. They're going to want touchdowns. So I don't think we will see a field goal shorter than 26 yards. If the expert says over, I'm going over. I think that's right. I think there's not going to be a lot of conservative play down close to the goal line over 26 and a half. Yeah, over is the move here.

You're going to see them be aggressive. They know they've got to figure it out. And we've got to figure some things out when we go on a break. All right. Now joined in person at Radio Row, good friend of the show, two years in a row every week, Heath Cummings talks fantasy with us, takes time out of his schedule. And for that, we have, hopefully, by the time people are listening to this on Friday, because we're recording this on Wednesday, you and I have already drank 14 beers together. At least.

With Gardner Minshew. At least. And I was wondering, because you introduced me as a good friend, and we're two years in. Last year, I was a friend of the show. So after two years, I've become a good friend of the show. Yes. How many years does it take before you become a super friend?

A super friend? Oh, I think it just happened by accident. It was like Spider-Man got bit, right? He didn't mean to. The super friends,

you, if there was a, so I look at it like this. When people are like, people will DM me or text me and be like, hey, we're going to rank the people

on the, my favorite people on the pod. You're included in the regular list of characters. DLC makes it. Prisco makes it. RJ's included too. So I think that encompasses the larger group of super friends. Okay, fair. Because there are certainly people out there who like you better than Sean.

Obviously. I probably will send a breach, and certainly me too. If there's not at least one person out there that likes me better than Prisco, then I quit. Yeah, I know. That's right. Somebody's like, hey, I want you to get your own radio at Prisco. It's like, do you really want to do that?

So we're going to talk DFS and props. Yeah. Which one do you want to talk first? DFS. Okay. Do you want me to tell you, just cold tell you the story of how much I won or what happened? Am I going to be happy for you or not like you? You'll be happy for me.

You'll not like you. Well, so I have now finished first place in two tournaments. I remember the would happen. Am I going to be happy for you or not like you? You'll be happy for me. You'll not like you. Well, so I have now finished first place in two tournaments. I remember the first one. It wasn't necessarily a great feeling for you. It was disturbing. I made 150% ROI, but it was a dollar entry. Right. And that was disappointing.

Well, I got the taste of it, taste of DFS, the taste of blood in my mouth. I smell blood in the water, so to speak. And I've been doing some NBA DFS as well. Yes. A lot of golf DFS. So you do NBA? I like NBA, yes. I do too.

It requires you to do a lot of grinding on the lineups from six to seven. Yes. And I actually got started playing DFS, playing NBA before any other sport. I think it's the best sport for DFS. I agree. I think it's the best sport for DFS. Because you have better slates. It's nightly.

I don't know if I like it. I do like NFL DFS, but there's so much going on during a Sunday that it's hard to get into it. Now, having said that, I am obviously going to have a bunch of DraftKings lineups during the Super Bowl. I've already reserved my spots. I'm going to do some captain work, and we'll talk about that. So Friday, before we came down to Florida, I went out and got beers

with a buddy. My wife is annoyed at me, because long story short, she's just annoyed at me. And I realized after my buddy leaves the Ridgewood, which is the best beer shop in Raleigh, both Pat and Jason, they did great work there. After he leaves, after Brons leaves, I am like, oh, crap, it's 6 o'clock. I have an hour to get these lineups in.

And I'm not going to drive home now because it would take 20 minutes to get home. And then, yeah, yeah, yeah. By the time I'd be slamming these lineups in, I'd get another IPA and sit here and order these beers. Or sit here and put these lineups in. So I plug the lineups in, I'd always get another IPA and sit in order of these beers. Or sit in and put these lineups in. So I plug the lineups in. I'm like flying through. I use like an optimizer and whatnot. And I'm trying to get them ready.

And then I get home and I'm DMing with this guy that we talk about DFS with. And I was like, hey, look, what do you think about this lineup? He's like, I mean, don't go with Zion. I was like, all right, cool. I was like, I got this other problem, too. I got Patty Mills in the lineup over here. And I'm not feeling great about it. He's like, yeah, don't do that.

I was like, why don't you get some. He's like Patty Mills in the lineup over here. And I'm not feeling great about it. He's like, yeah, don't do that. He's like, why don't you get some. He's like, you got all this cat exposure. Get some Jokic exposure. So I flipped Jokic in there. And I'm like, you know, I've had a couple beers at this point. Jokic, get Tyler Hero at shooting guard. And then I go with my boy, TJ Warren. Your boy.

My boy. Love him. NC State guy. So I go with TJ Warren. I flip in at like 759 before those games happen. I'm like, all right, cool. And I had Kimba locked in. He'd started out hot. So I'm like feeling good about him. I go to bed at like 11 Warren. I flip in at like $7.59 before those games happen. I'm like, all right, cool. And I had Kimba locked in. He'd started out hot. So I'm feeling good about him. I go to bed

at like 11 o'clock that night, like 11.30. And I'm winning $50. And it's not, you know. That's fine. Yeah, it's fine. And I'm thinking like, all right, cool. And I wake up the next morning and I'm like, oh, I wonder what, um, I was like, I wonder if I won that $50 or if I like fell out of the thing because like somebody

jumped me or like T.J TJ Warren didn't do very much. TJ Warren went off. He had put up like a 53. And I won the tournament. Wow. Yeah. 12 large. That's a good amount.

It's a very good amount. I was dancing in my boxers around the house. Like the first thing in the morning. I was like, when I woke up, my wife was like, hey, check it out. Look at this. She was like, what is happening? Why don't you need to be doing this more often? I was like, whenever I woke up, my wife was like, hey, check it out. Look at this. She was like, what is happening? You need to be doing this more often. I was like, yeah, I'll keep playing DFS. I don't know if I'm going to

keep winning. So that's my largest DFS hit ever. And the nice thing is it happened in January. So you've got 11 months to not deal with it. To fix your tax problem. You get to play a lot now. Because you do want to lose. You don't want to lose. You want to keep winning.

But now it is imperative to track your wins and losses on DFS, right? Yeah. Yes. That's a way to start off 2020. I assume you've been playing for a long time. I've been playing for four or five years. What is your biggest takedown? It is less than that.

Okay. Yeah, that's a big takedown. Right. Yeah. My biggest takedown this season is less than that. Okay. I mean, yeah, that's a big takedown. Right. Yeah. My biggest takedown this season during football season was about 2,600. That's a really good takedown. Oh, it was a great week. Yeah.

I enjoyed it. And we talked, you played most of the cash. Right. Not most of the cash, but like a mix of cash. Yeah, most of the tournaments, but then like some cash to supplement. What are you going to be playing for FanDuel, DraftKings? What are you going to be playing for the Super Bowl? Probably just FanDuel.

Okay. And, you know, it's really interesting. I'm not, throughout the year, a huge fan of the showdowns. I play them. I put lineups together. I really like them, but they're frustrating. Well, you've got to be just a little bit crazy. Yeah.

Like, you've got to have just a little bit of, I'm going to put something in there that doesn't really make sense. At least one play. Maybe two. NFC Championship game, I'm going to put something in there that doesn't really make sense. At least one play. Maybe two. NFC Championship game, I went Mostert as my captain. Yeah? But I missed on everything else. Right. And cash.

I doubled up or whatever. But you have to basically put together a Rubik's Cube. Well, you've got to figure out who's the highest scoring player going to be, and he has to be in the right spot. Yeah. And then who's the next highest scoring player, regardless of what the price is. And he has to be honest. And then you've probably got to find the one guy that is $6,000 on FanDuel or $800 on DraftKings that you don't really want to play. But you're like, if that guy falls in the end zone and I have the highest scoring guy, it's going to be a great day.

Yeah, exactly. Exactly. That's the point. And I think it's critical, too, with these DraftKings and FanDuel showdown sites that you have to project what the game script is going to be. And it's not often a bad thing, too, if you're going to enter multiple lineups. Go with multiple game scripts. Like, you know, if you think that the 49ers are going to run the ball successfully,

you could go with Raheem Mostert or Tevin Coleman as maybe like your captain, right? And if you think the Chiefs are going to roll, and you're a Chiefs fan, you're nervous as hell about this game, right? And if you think the Chiefs are going to roll, and you're a Chiefs fan, you're nervous as hell about this game, but excited. If you think the Chiefs are going to roll, maybe you go Mahomes as captain or potentially a running back, right? Yeah, I think you'd go with a running back.

That's what I'm thinking. I'm going with Damian Williams, really regardless of game script. Because I think if the Chiefs fall behind, it's difficult to go downfield against the 49ers. Sure. And it's not been very good passing the running backs against them so far this season. But I expect that's what Kansas City is going to do. Pete Prisco has been talking about it.

Every time I see him, he's telling someone else about how the Chargers slowed down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense by taking away the middle of the field. And what the Chiefs did was throw the ball to their running backs. And, of course, the Chargers have a former Seahawks defensive coordinator, just like the 49ers. Exactly. Right. So I would expect that's what they're going to try to do. I mean, that's worked for one of them. They did.

All those guys talk. So, yeah, Damian Williams is really the only feature, I guess I'll put in quotes, running back that I want to play on this slate. But I do kind of like Kyle Juszczyk. Ooh. So you're going to use... So these are not like... You don't think like Damien...

Do you think Damien Williams would be the top scorer in fantasy? I think Damien Williams could be the top scorer, yes. He has a chance. But if you did projections of this, it would probably be Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes would be the top projected.

And I think Patrick Mahomes, because on FanDuel, there's only a $2,000 difference, I believe, in price between Mahomes and Damian Williams. Mahomes would be the top in terms of how you put it all together. You would make him your captain at FanDuel, right? Right, in a cash game.

But in a tournament, I think there's a chance this is one of those games, and we've seen it really since Damian Williams came back. He's been very good. Yeah, just dominated. And it's very similar to what he did at the end of last year and in the playoffs so i expect something similar i i wouldn't be that surprised and this is where you look at me a little bit funny but i kind of think the chiefs are going to come out and run the ball successfully in the first quarter against the 49ers defense that would be a surprise but the thing is like you it's much easier to run against the 49ers than to pass. It is. They completely shut down Dalvin Cook, and they have had great success stopping the run.

Chiefs offensive line is substantially better. Well, and also, when you look at the times when they've really shut guys down, it's when that running back is the team's offense. If you tell the 49ers all you have to do is stop Damian Williams, they're going to stop Damian Williams. I don't have any doubt. Right, right, right. They do not care. Damian Williams is item number five on the to-do list of things to stop in the Chiefs. Exactly.

So I would expect that's where the Chiefs are going to find success. So yeah, Damian Williams is my captain. And again, if you're listening to this and you're thinking about playing DFS, you have to remember, too, that the higher profile the game, the more the public is going to be involved in these DFS showdowns. Yes. And if the public is picking the DFS showdowns, Patrick Mahomes is going to be like 50% captained on DraftKings.

He is going to be the guy. Jimmy Garoppolo is not a terrible pivot either, I don't think. I don't think he's going to put up a tough... He threw eight times last week. Two weeks ago. No one is going to... He's going to be low-owned. He will be low-owned.

I think it really depends on the site. On FanDuel, I don't really have much interest in playing Garoppolo. He's just priced too high. But on DraftKings, there's a pretty good drop really have much interest in playing Garoppolo. He's just priced too high. But on DraftKings, there's a pretty good drop-off from Mahomes to Garoppolo. So yeah, I think it's a pretty good there. Yeah, I'm looking at David Richard. Oh, and

Mr. Alex. I know who you are. I just tried to track you down and take you to something. You did? What? We're live on a podcast. Would you like to say hello to the podcast world? No, no, no. This is the Pick 6 podcast.

The award-winning Pick 6 podcast? People are talking about it. I'm not joking with you. People are talking about it. I was in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, and I heard people. They'd come up to me, and they'd say hi to me. And then they'd also say, oh, and tell Brinson that we love the Pick 6 podcast. I will say, though, that I was walking around on media night, opening night.

And I hear, Will Brinson. And I looked over. I was thinking, like, are you some media guy or are you, like, a PR guy? There's two guys in the crowd that are like, love the podcast, bro. I was like, that's not bad. I was like, wow. I was like, I love it. You've got to love it.

So that was exciting. We're going to go back to podcasting and talk about DFS. All right. All right. See you soon. All right. So what the hell were we saying? I think we were talking about Jimmy Garoppolo.

Oh, yeah. Jimmy G. So, Jimmy G. So, on DraftKings, $18,900 for Patrick Mahomes as captain. You have to go past Tyree Kill, Damian Williams, Travis Kelsey, Raheem Mostert, George Kittle before you get to $12,000 captain Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. That's a pretty... I'm going to own some of that. Yeah, I think that makes sense. I'm going to play mostly on FanDuel, but George Kittle before you get to $12,000 captain Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.

I'm going to own some of that. Yeah, I think that makes sense. And again, I'm going to play mostly on FanDuel. But when you think about it, it's easy to play Garoppolo as a non-captain on DraftKings. Oh, for sure. $8,000, that's really easy. On FanDuel, where the price doesn't change for the captain, it doesn't really... I don't have any appeal to play him. It doesn't make any sense to play him.

It's a weird game script if he's the highest scoring guy. I don't know what it would be. I don't even know if it's possible because if he's the highest scoring guy, it means the Chiefs had a very balanced – I think you're looking at a situation where if he's the highest scoring guy where it's like the New Orleans game. Yeah, it's just a shootout. It's just a shootout.

And he edges out Mahomes by a point or two, and the Chiefs' touchdowns are spread around between Kelsey. But even then, I think it's more likely that George Kittle's the highest scoring guy. I would agree with that, too. Because if Garoppolo's going to throw for 303 touchdowns, then George Kittle's probably got a 150 in one. Yeah, 150 in two or something like that. You're right, yeah.

Do you think the Chiefs are going to win? I told myself at the beginning of the week, I'm not going to make any predictions. The way that I feel about this. Then you realize that you cover sports for a living. Right. I don't have a choice. I think the Chiefs are going to win or lose the game. In other words, I don't think the 49ers really have too much say in it.

Really? I think if Patrick Mahomes plays his best game. If Patrick Mahomes plays a Patrick Mahomes game. And Andy Reid calls it as if Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback, then I think the Chiefs win by two scores. I would agree with that. And I think that if the Chiefs come out aggressive and early, they will get up and that will force Jimmy Garoppolo to throw

and it will not be a very good day at the office for Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo. And really, you look at that Chiefs defense. This is why I kind of have a hard time. I've been saying this, Heath. Nobody says it enough. The Chiefs defense is good. They've got Frank Clark. They've got Chris Jones.

Yeah. The Honey Badger. The Honey Badger's playing out of this world. Yeah, I don't understand why people aren't talking about this. Yeah, their defense is good. And I expect them to be really good on Sunday, obviously. So I'm not i think the chief stevens is a sneaky little option in dfs2 yes on draft kings for sure yeah um i only

i only mind i think that people will be so all in on points in this game as they should be right that like if you're trying to build a contrarian style lineup going chiefs defense and 49ers defense is not a bad idea well i know d know Dave Richard loves the 49ers in this game. Really? He thinks they're going to win? He likes the idea, if Tevin Coleman plays, of playing Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and the 49ers defense, all three. Sure, that's a great green script build. And then if you do that, you better do Patrick Mahomes, too.

Yeah, I think you do that with Patrick Mahomes, or you just go five 49ers and play one Chief, and you say Andy gets is too conservative in the first half and they kick three field goals that would be something if that which I like that those things have happened with Andy Reid throughout his coaching career I would just I would be really surprised if they if the 49 I don't think the 49ers can blow the chiefs out I don't think they can either I that would really surprise me I'm trying to build a lineup right now that offers it so would you do you you think with the 49ers you do you can't go. That would really surprise me. I'm trying to build a lineup right now that offers it. So would you do,

you think with the 49ers, you do, if you don't want to do that, see in that situation you don't want... I think if you get the two running backs and the 49ers defense, then you may be using the 49ers kicker too. A hundred percent. So then you get Robbie Gold and then you can go,

you could do either, you can get Mahomes, this is on DraftKings. You get Mahomes and Kittle. You can't quite get Mahomes and Kelsey or Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, though. See, I would want to have an option where guys are coming. If the 49ers are up big, see, that's the thing. It's not going to be like that Broncos-Seahawks game where they completely shut out.

No, I wouldn't think so. Because they can just go up top. They can get vertical on you and they can score points. So I just don't think it's possible that they can completely blank the Chiefs. No, I wouldn't think so. So if you do that kind of build, to me, you need to have some – by the way, I'm so much more into DFS since I won a bunch of money. Well, you're a lot better at it now.

I am a lot better at it. It's amazing. But you really have to learn. It takes a ton of experience and time doing it to realize these builds are like – I mean, it's a lot of luck, but they're scientifically constructed. Yeah, I think there is a good balance somewhere between knowing what you're doing and accepting how much you don't know. Yes.

Because my biggest losses have all come within a week or two of my biggest wins. I... Partially because you're willing to risk a little bit more after a big win. But also because you get

this thing in your head like, oh, I figured it out. Yeah. And then you're like, no, it turns out I haven't. That's the same thing with gambling too. Yeah.

Like, you know, you go on a hot streak and you're like, oh, I'm locked in right now. I'm going to double my bets. And then all of a sudden you've lost twice your money. All right.

Let's talk about some bets. You like some props. There's a couple of them that I like. Yeah. One of them, Jamie Eisenberg told me earlier in the week, and it might have moved by now, but Damian Williams, I believe, was at two and a half catches. That's too low. That's way too low.

But I would like it up to three and a half. Okay. Because I do think it's likely that he catches four plus passes. Okay. I like that. If it's moved a little bit, I'd like it up to three and a half. And then there are like three or four different Kyle Juszczyk props, which is surprising.

A player that has not touched the ball in the playoffs yet has three or four props dedicated to just him. But that team loves him. They view him as one of their most important players. And I just have to believe they've drawn up a couple of plays for him to touch the football in the Super Bowl. I agree with you completely. I wonder what the odds would be on a fullback touchdown in the Super Bowl. Well, I know the odds for him to have one carry or more. Catches don't count.

One carry plus 300. That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous. They're definitely going to get a carry. He's over under for receiving yards, 10.5. That's ridiculous, too. He's going to get one wheel route. At least.

I wouldn't think so. Especially if they fall behind. I think we'll see them just dumping the ball off to him. 100%. That's been very successful against the Chiefs defense this year, throwing two running backs. And he has seven games this year with more than 11 receiving yards. So it's not like this isn't something.

That's a weirdly low prop. Yes. And then I don't know what the prop is for him to score a touchdown, but I would like to put a little bit of money on that. I would agree with that. I don't mind like Tevin Coleman props. They might not be out there yet because of the injury

status, but I feel like if he's healthy and ready to go, he will get more usage than people are expecting. I don't think it's necessarily like a Raheem Mostert guaranteed 30-carry game. Absolutely not. He only carries the ball 15 to 20 times if Tevin Coleman doesn't get hurt. He's only carried the ball 20 times once ever.

And that was two weeks ago. Yes. And I think 19 he had once this year. I also think the Chiefs are better at preventing big runs than the Packers. They've been better at preventing big everything. They've been several games where they've given up four and a half yards of pop and teams have just run all over them, but it's not with the boom play. Right.

They don't typically give up those huge plays. All right. So there's your props. Yes. That's the DFS analysis. Excellent work, Heath Cummings. Let's go drink some beer. Let's go drink some beer.

You go on vacation. Okay. Or did you already go on vacation? I went on vacation. Go on vacation again. That sounds great. All right, buddy.