Fantasy Football Today - Player Debates with Jake Ciely! (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 10, 2022

Jake Ciely of The Athletic is back on the show to discuss all of the big topics from the past few days. We start with a lengthy discussion about the Broncos wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton? Who is the better fit with Russell Wilson? When should Tim Patrick get drafted? ... More debates: Aaron Rodgers or Wilson (19:26)? Mike Williams or a Seahawks/Broncos WR (20:30)? Terry McLaurin or a Seahawks/Broncos WR (30:10)? DeVonta Smith or Michael Gallup (32:25)? ... News and notes (39:00) including the Bucs backfield and Christian McCaffrey rumors ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to the show. We've got a guest to come on and give us some fresh perspective. You've heard Heath, Dave, and Jamie talk about Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Corlin Sutton, etc. Carson Wentz. Now we're going to hear from the all-in kid, Jake Seeley of The Athletic, joining us on Fantasy Football today. I'm going to make Heath tell us why he likes Mike Williams so much. We're going to argue about it. We're going to talk about full season numbers versus 11 games

and sample sizes and all that. Looking forward to that. These are stats. Mike Williams stats is what they are. Welcome, Jake Seeley. What's up, buddy? I appreciate the invite. It's been too long.

I almost said the song again that we were joking about before we came on the show. It's been a while. Yeah, there you go. Dave, who sang, it's been a while? I've heard that song a hundred times on the radio. I don't think I know who. Okay, we'll give you three choices. Is it A, Puddle of Mud?

B, Creed? B, creed? C, stained? I was going to say creed, so let's go with creed. Oh, why does everybody say it? Everybody says creed, Adam. Everybody thinks it's creed. Come on, it's stained. With no E, S-T-A-I-N-D, stained, Dave.

Come on. Anyway, we'll talk fantasy football today and talk about the biggest winners and losers of the week and also look ahead to free agency, favorite destinations. Jake's going to give us his favorite destinations for some free agent running backs and things like that. We have some news and notes to get to as well. Jake, who is your biggest winner of the NFL offseason so far?

So we're talking about, you know, Amari Cooper left. Maybe it's CeeDee Lamb. Obviously, the Russell Wilson trade. Maybe it's Sutton or Judy, whoever. Maybe it's C.D. Lamb. Obviously, the Russell Wilson trade. Maybe it's Sutton or Judy, whoever. Maybe it's McLaurin, whatever. Who's the biggest winner right now thus far? So the overarching is the Broncos as a whole. I mean, obviously, I think everybody, most everybody would agree with that.

I think we could say arrow pointing up for Sutton, for Judy, for Okwubunam or Okwabunam, however the hell you say his last name. Albert O, everybody. Did I get it right at the second time? Okwabunam. Okwabunam. I don't think the O is in there. Okwabunam.

It's only four syllables. Yeah, so there you go. I will say this. He's not my pick because I think he's already being overrated. By the way, I know this isn't a Dynasty show, but if everybody's out there in Dynasty, sell high right now because what's the target share going to be for him? Like, what, 10%, 11%?

So let's chill out. Yes, it's exciting. Yes, he can be at the back end maybe of a tight end one. But I think the real potential winner here, if we're going off last season, it would be Cortland Sutton for bouncing back of what we expect Cortland Sutton to be. But if you look at profiles and you're saying, where's that connection, that similarity for what

worked with Russell Wilson and his style of play, I think Judy gets the bigger edge win-wise. I think you can see both of them in the same range as in mid-teens, maybe low 20s wide receivers, like say so 15 to 20, 22, and they have similar numbers. But if you're looking for the one that becomes the new Tyler Locke, it was that connection that you had with Russell Wilson. I would lean Judy. I think both are huge winners, but I would lean Judy, especially for the talent right there. And I think Sutton's going to primarily similarly have a profile kind of like DK Metcalf. So they both win. And for everybody out there, I would not say Albert O despite his arrow going up.

All right, so just to expand a little bit on that, why do you think it's Judy? Because he's in the slot, like Lockett. What is it about the profile that makes you think he's more of a winner? That's part of it. I do think is the style of play. The slot is greater. Sutton spends some time in the slot, but so does a lot of wide receivers at this day and age.

Everybody's rotating through their line there and seeing different profiles. Basically, the NFL is copycat, and everybody's like, oh, hey, let's not use one guy one way all the time and kind of get in that route. But it comes down to the skill of Judy coming out of college, period, is that Sutton is a great receiver, but Sutton does have limitations of what he can do. I think if we look at Judy coming out of college, what we thought he could be, and the excitement behind Judy, it was that he can do more. He can run crisper routes. At this point, Russell Wilson still attacks downfield, which I was surprised to see. Did you know he led all quarterbacks last year in air yards per attempt?

I was shocked by that for Russell Wilson. I would have never guessed he would be number one. I would have guessed with that mallet finger he was going to check in at like 10 or 12. So I think if you look at that, that's where you still see the appeal of Cortland Sutton. But I look for the separation, really. And Cortland Sutton, as good as he is, Jerry Judy is always, always the much better separator than Sutton is. Yeah. The way he played, it was more like Ryan Mallet finger.

So do you guys, thank you. Thank you, Jake. See, if you're not, if you're not like conditioned to hearing these terrible jokes all the time, you know, you might laugh. So now that you've had some time to think about it, Heath, Dave, have you changed your mind at all? Or where were you guys on Judy versus Sutton? Dave?

Oh, Heath. Heath, go ahead. Go ahead, Heath. You said Heath, Dave. I think I? Dave? Oh, Heath. Go ahead. Go ahead, Heath. You said Heath, Dave. I think I might need to say. Yeah. Go ahead. There's lots of things I need to clarify here from the last couple of minutes of Jake.

First off, he's laughing because he's a guest and it's polite, not because he hasn't heard these jokes in the past. Everyone's heard terrible jokes regularly. It was genuine. It was genuine. I love dad jokes, I'm just going to say, I, I, okay. That's very nice of you to say. And yes, he will have you on again in the future. I think it depends on how you want to look at the biggest winner. I, I agree. Alberto is being overvalued. I had Alberto as the biggest winner because where was he before this trade? Where is

he? This trade, his value has changed as much, even if it hasn't changed as much as the public perception suggests it has. The big problem for me with Judy and Sutton, and this is like wet blanket, I know, it's Tim Patrick. He's, for some reason, gets a very similar target share to Sutton and Judy, and for some reason gets a very similar target share to Sutton and Judy. And for some reason outperforms them. I mean, this part makes more sense. Probably the defenses are paying more attention to Sutton and Judy.

So I really think like we're probably not going to know until we find out who's having breakfast with Russell Wilson and training camp. And then we'll know who the favorite guy is going to be. I agree with Jake that Judy 100% has the most upside. This is kind of a Jobu year for him in terms of dynasty. We're just going to leave him as a top 20 dynasty wide receiver because of his pedigree and hope that he pays off on it. And if he doesn't, he's going to fall like a crater.

But I think Judy has the most upside. Sutton's right there with him. And Tim Patrick could unfortunately be the party pooper. And now I'm here to tell you that everything can potentially change because what has happened in the past in Denver, particularly with these receivers, is in an offense that is vanilla with quarterbacks that are meh so now we're getting a quarterback that likes to let it rip you heard jake say that he led the league in air yards per attempt he's been top 10 in deep pass attempt rate each of the past three seasons he likes to let it rip he's looking downfield he also doesn't really like to hit that intermediate area we're talking 10 to 19 yards in the air. So about half of his passes

last year were real short. Nine yards or closer. You see that with every quarterback in the league. But a lot of quarterbacks like to attack that middle of the field, this middle area, 10 to 19 yards. He not only didn't do it last year, he's been in the 50th percentile or lower, and in one case, dead last over the last three seasons. so that's an area that i think has been like jerry judy territory since judy's coming to the league judy's a slot receiver he runs a lot of in that area how often did we see jerry judy in the pros go deep downfield i mentioned it in the pros we didn't see it that much i don't have that right in front of me. He also doesn't play it as much. So, Judy last year... 20 plus yards downfield.

Well, I don't know that, but his ADOT as a rookie was fairly high. I'll just say this about Judy real quick. I'll let you finish, Dave. Tyler Lockett played 37% of his slots in the snap. His snaps in the slot.

Judy was at 75%, right around there. So he was almost exclusively a slot receiver. But if you go back to his rookie year, he started out as basically a slot receiver. And then the last eight to 10 weeks, he was almost exclusively out wide. And the ADOT was higher and the production was up and down.

But we also have a new coaching staff. So I think like you said, we just don't know where we'll be. But he has at least shown that he can bounce around. Cortland Sutton is... Jake said he does play in the slot sometimes, and he does. But he is very, very much outside

almost all the time. Tim Patrick, I think it was about 18% in the slot. So it makes sense for Judy to be in the slot, but he has shown that he can play both in and out. Agreed. And he did it in college. He definitely went deep a lot in college too i pulled it up for you dave while we were talking uh percentage of plays receptions that went 20 plus yards lockett was 30 last year met calf was 15 and then patrick led the the broncos i knew that nine 18.4 for judy and 15.5 for sutton

okay that's interesting. And what I think is really going to be important is how the new coaching staff, and this is going to be an aggressive offense, they're going to be totally fine with Russell Wilson throwing the football. Where they are going to put Judy, how do they view Jerry Judy? Is Jerry Judy close to Tyler Lockett. I know it sounds silly because we've watched Tyler Lockett just break people's ankles,

get wide open 30 yards downfield and he catches those bombs. I've watched enough of Jerry Judy. And this is after his high ankle sprain last year to tell you that he can do those things. Maybe not quite as fast as Tyler Lockett, but still fast enough to break away from your average defensive back. I think he could end up being that guy. And the fact, Adam, that you told me that he's played outside quite a bit

his rookie year, maybe the coaches will see him that way. They'll put him outside a lot more often than the prior coaching staff did. And that opens him up. Sutton didn't play. I have to point that out. Sutton was out there. Right, and so that's probably part of the reason. But if he was successful in that role, then I think. I have to point that out. Sutton was out. Right. And so that's probably part of the reason. But if he was successful in that role, then I think

he'll at least get that opportunity. Now, maybe Nathaniel Hackett's already said, yeah, we love Jerry Judy in the slot, and I've missed that. I don't know. But if they keep Judy in the slot, I think that hurts him a little bit. I think that limits him a little bit. And I think that opens the door for Sutton and Patrick to get a wider amount

of the target share in this offense. If they move Judy all around and all over the place, I think he's going to be the best receiver there. And so I'm willing to rank him slightly ahead of Sutton and both of them maybe like a round to three rounds ahead of Patrick. But I've already fallen in love with the idea of drafting. A round to three rounds ahead of Patrick? But I'm thinking, I love with the idea. A round to three rounds ahead of Patrick? But I'm thinking, I don't know if I'm going to get Patrick at that point, but I'm already in love with the idea.

Patrick, no, they're going to be way ahead of Patrick. Two things. What round are we thinking about? We'll come back to you in a half hour. What round are you guys thinking about drafting Judy and Sutton in? Go ahead.

If it was today, off the excitement, if it was today, it would probably be, I wouldn't, but I would assume it's probably like third round at this point. There's no way I'm thinking of that. Four for Judy, five for Sutton.

That's, yeah. The two things. From this point forward, the Broncos head coach on this podcast will be known as Nitin Fanil Thakkar. And the other thing, I don't think we should compare anyone to Tyler Lockett. Such a huge percentage of the big plays that Tyler Lockett made was after the play was already over for any other quarterback.

Russell Wilson's spinning out of something and Tyler Lockett's running to the spot and he's throwing it to him. That was the reason that I felt like he would become it to him yeah that was the reason that he i i felt like he would become close to dk's production i i would guess if you look at like the number of yards gained within the play dk had a much larger share of his than lockett and i i don't want to suppose that judy's going to be the guy or anybody really in this first year with wilson is going to be the guy that has a good feel for how to do that and where to go. I will say, we don't know that it could,

it could very certainly be any one of these receivers. Go to Jake. It's that go to Jake, go to Jake. Go ahead. I was going to say two things. I was actually, so he thought that like immediately come back,

but I was surprised because I would assume the same thing. DK Metcalf actually had a higher yards after the catch than Tyler Lockett did last year. Oh, I believe. No, I'm sorry. I meant when plays had broken down and Tyler Lockett just ran to some open part of the field 30 yards down. No, I believe that. Okay. So, so I can see.

And the whole reason I drew the comparison is you're not wrong in saying that like, we don't know. Dave just said it. Like, we don't know. This could go any different direction. We're making assumptions on what we think Russell Wilson the fit is with these wide receivers you know what happens if he does eat lunch with Tim Patrick every single day and all of a sudden it's his new Cooper Cup just as we saw with Stafford we probably don't think that's going to happen but I wanted to come back to something you said earlier in the one area I do agree with you Heath and why I'm down on Albert O is I think that the third option for Russ in Seattle was essentially

usually the tight end, although it usually was different tight ends. Tim Patrick is worlds ahead of any third wide receiver he's had to this point. And I actually do expect this to have more three wide receiver value than two wide receivers and a tight end. And that's why the other reason I'm down on Albert. So I agree with you that Patrick is probably the value right now for where people are just kind of forgetting him because they're excited for Albert and excited for Sutton and Judy potentially being DK and Lockett. What's easier for this Broncos coaching staff to change?

How they utilize their receivers or Russell Wilson's tendencies? There you go. I don't think they want to change Russell Wilson's tendencies? There you go. I don't think they want to change Russell Wilson's tendencies. Right, right. You know he's going to be a Houdini in the pocket. You know he's going to be pressured. It would have been a sack for Eli Manning. It would have been a sack and a fumble for Daniel Jones.

But for Russell Wilson, he's out of there, and he's making an impromptu play downfield. And if I want somebody freelancing, it's going to be I think that's the kind of thing that'll help all the receivers. That's true. I was going to say the freelancer should be Judy, and that's why I'm with you. But I think all three receivers could ultimately benefit from it,

but I feel like if Judy, especially if he's moved around, could be the one that benefits the most, because I think he's got the most juice. I think he's the one that can separate the most, and I think the coaching staff can recognize that and use him differently than what Pat Shermer did over the past couple of years in Denver.

So there is some significant Jerry Judy breakout potential. I was crazy for him last year. I'm going to try my best, I promise, to not be as crazy about him last year I'm going to try my best I promise to not be as crazy about him this year I've already kind of you know shriveled my nose at the idea of taking him in round three but I can't say I'm going to shrivel my nose if it's late round four and he's there

can't say I can do that and this is the last thing promise I love the idea of drafting Patrick and one of these other Broncos receivers thanks for joining us Jake I love the idea of drafting Patrick and one of these other Broncos receivers. Thanks for joining us, Jake. Come on now. Look, you should be excited about these guys, right?

We just saw what Matthew Stafford did for Cooper Cup. You want to go back to the Broncos. We saw what Peyton Manning did for Demarius Thomas. Demarius Thomas' first year with Peyton Manning was, I think, his third year of his career, just like Jerry Judy. And he went from 551 yards to 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns the following year. Just want to make sure I'm right. Yeah, 2012. So it could really make a big difference.

So, Heath, is that where you're settled on right now? Judy round four, Sutton round five? No, no. I don't think – I actually still have Sutton ahead of Judy right now, but I would probably take them both in round five. And it's hard to say when you take Patrick because we need to get updated ADP. I'm going to have Patrick ranked ahead of his ADP,

but you don't want to take him where you have him ranked if ADP is two or three rounds later. I'm assuming that Patrick's still going to be available in the round nine or ten range. But I could be wrong. And also, trying to make the comparison, if people want to be down on Tim Patrick, they're going to say, well, there's never been three good options

in the passing game for Seattle. But I'm hoping that Denver does what we all wanted Seattle to do and just let him cook, whatever, throw. Just throw. What did I say? In the last seven years, I think they've never been higher than 16th or 17th in pass attempts per game, Seattle. So just let him.

That stat might be a little bit wrong. I might have gotten the numbers a little mixed up. But you get the drift. Let's have Denver be eighth in pass attempts this year. Why not? And then you could have just a huge breakout for Sutton and Judy and then, you know, streamable first Patrick.

One last thing. Has anybody done any research on Russ throwing to the running back? Because I have not even started that. I'm too engulfed in the receivers. Percentage-wise or just in general? Give me anything that'll make me feel better or worse about Javante. There's not any history of Russ throwing running backs that will make you feel better.

Carson a couple years ago. It's probably worse. He was near the bottom throwing to running back. I mean, again, last year when you could argue he didn't really have much, but Chris Carson was out for most of the year, and the Rashad Penny wasn't a thing until late in the year for about four weeks. But I think his entire history for Russ Wilson, I think he's very rarely hit, even 20%.

He's usually in the teams. 37 catches in 12 games for Chris Carson in 2020. That might be the best. Yeah, that's pretty good. But 37 catches in 15 games for Carson the year before that. But still, you had great running backs. That only changes if Hackett insists on it, which he might. Which he might.

Or they throw more. They could help everybody. All right, well, that was a good discussion for Jake's biggest winner of the NFL offseason. Next week, we're going to be breaking down the free agency moves on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. And we also have March Madness coming up. And we've got a big Hurricanes game in a few hours, Dave.

So, get ready for that. And we want you to compete against us in our bracket challenge. We want thousands and thousands of entries. The winner is in the podcast league. So, you're going to go to cbssports.com slash fftbrackets. Is that really? Is that live right now? I have to check because I haven't created the contest. Maybe Schrager did,

but we're going to have, um, it's life. Oh, sweet. Yeah. Awesome. All right. CBS sports.com slash FFT brackets. Join that. I'll make your picture at though. Join that. And, uh, and if you win, you're in the podcast league. It's that simple and it'll be a lot of fun. It's free and CBS is awesome awesome. So play on there. All right, let's do a who would you rather have? Here we go. A guest of honor gets to go first. Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, Jake? I will take Aaron Rodgers by a hair. I do think Russ can bounce back to that range of where Rodgers is. But my biggest concern about Russell Wilson is that he just doesn't want to run anymore. And last year's numbers were the worst of his career rushing wise. And it was his

least fancy points per game since 2016, which was a very similar season. I think he does perform better, especially if you take away the mallet finger and with the talent he now has, but unless he's getting back to 300 ish, 400 400 yards maybe, but a few touchdowns. I mean, he's now lockstep with Rodgers in the rushing department. I don't know that it's really going to change, I think, at this point of his career. That's a good point. Okay.

Everybody else on Rodgers over Wilson? I am. Yeah, maybe by just three hairs instead of one, but yeah. Okay. Simpson hairs. Homer Simpson hairs. All right, let's talk about Mike Williams. I didn't know who to compare him to that was relevant in free agency. Okay. Simpson-Harris. Homer Simpson-Harris. All right, let's talk about Mike Williams.

I didn't know who to compare him to that was relevant in free agency. So are you ranking Mike Williams ahead of any of the main four Denver or Seattle wide receivers? I'll actually let Heath go first here. Is Mike Williams ahead of either Sutton, Judy, Lockett, or Metcalf right now? I am the Mike Williams guy apparently now, and I'm going to Azerstat your Azerstats because you basically said he had five good games last year. I didn't say that.

I did not say that. I've got him ahead of all of the Broncos and ahead of Lockett and behind DK. But if they go into the season with true luck as their quarterback, he will be ahead of... I just don't think they're going to do that. He will be ahead of all the Seahawks and the Broncos. I don't really...

There was his best five games or four games were at the beginning of the year, but weeks one through nine, the first half of the season, Mike Evans was wide receiver 15 in PPR fantasy points per game. The second half, week 10 through 18... Mike Williams.

Yes. He was wide receiver 18. The second half, week 10 through 18. Mike Williams. Yes, he was wide receiver 18. The final six weeks of the season, week 13 through 18, he was wide receiver 20. I don't see this major difference. I don't think he fell off a cliff and turned back into the guy he was in past years. And they just gave him $40 million guaranteed and $20 million a year to play with Justin Herbert in what's going to be a very high-volume pass offense as the number two option or 1B option. I just don't see any way he's not getting 125, 130 targets again from Justin Herbert. And that makes him a number two wide receiver. Jake, same question to you.

Do you have him ranked ahead of any Broncos or Seahawks right now? Mike Williams. Apparently I'm going to steal Heath's thunder because I don't care who's that quarterback for Seattle because the options are what I think is going to be potentially Malik Willis or a rookie quarterback over Locke

and in that case, I'm Mike Williams over everybody because I go back to the game log on top of it. Look at Mike Williams and DK Metcalf's game logs. They're very similar. It's a roller coaster. Like, I want both of them as my wide receiver, too, because I'll get 20 points as much as I'll likely get four or five. That's just who they are.

But if you're going to rank these on what we're going into, as he just said, Justin Herbert next year with Mike Williams, clear number two. DK with rookie slash Lockett, or Lock, and then the same thing for Lockett. Lockett might not even be on that team. And then what we just talked about, ad nauseum, about the Broncos wide receivers is I'm going to take Mike Williams over the entire crew, all of them. Okay, Dave? I don't have him over the entire crew, but I've never been a huge Mike Williams fan to begin with. I don't like the lack of consistency we saw it at the beginning of last year he touched on it when he was just on fire to begin 2021 but after that he really fell off um there was definitely a period there where herbert also did not do well uh after the first five weeks of the season he had four games with

15 plus ppr one of them was his biggest one was in week 18. So I'm just, I'm nervous about the mistakes that he makes. Obviously the chargers don't care. They brought him back. If you told me that he had 120 targets in 17 games, I would tell you, yeah,

it's probably right on. He should be drafted as a number two receiver. But for now I'm, I'm going to lag on him and could change my mind. Probably depends on what ends up shaking out with the Seattle guys. Which of the wide receivers that we're talking about, the Seattle guys and the Broncos guys, have

been or do you think will be more consistent than Mike Williams? I think there's a chance. I think there's a chance for DK to get there, even with the downgraded quarterback. I think there's a chance for Judy and Sutton to get there with Russell Wilson. But they haven't been.

It's a whole new world for them. This is crazy. Wait a second. This bothers me because yesterday when you were comparing Logan Thomas to Albert O, your argument against Logan Thomas was that he only had one good season and Albert O had 33 catches last year or whatever, which was more than any other two seasons in Logan Thomas's career.

But you completely ignored the fact that he had a top five season. And he's a, he's a converted player who, you know, wasn't like a full-time tight end anyway, but you know, Mike Williams, you want to talk about,

you're talking about his consistency. Let's talk about his consistency. You're talking about one year of Mike Williams. So like he was awful. That's not true at about one year of Mike Williams. So he was awful. That's not true at all. No, it is true because he was awful in 2020. Thomas, we were talking about a guy who never had more than 22 catches in a season besides the one good year. Mike Williams has a 1,000-yard year and a 10-touchdown year.

He never had 50 catches in a season before last year. And after week five, he was the number 40 wide receiver in fantasy rest of the season. And what happened? His ADOT went way up. First three weeks, he was running shorter routes and catching more passes. After that, he went back to being the number 40 wide receiver. Now, he's better than that. I'm not going to say he's 40.

I don't understand why you would hold value in this after week five. Because his ADot changed. Because he showed us who he really is. When he was a number two wide receiver after week 10, a number two wide receiver after week 13. Per game or total?

Per game. Per game. So he had a really terrible stretch week six through 10. Yeah. He was one of the best wide receivers in football weeks one through five. If I took out Marvin Jones, it's terrible. Where does Mike Williams rank if you take weeks five, nine, 11, 13, and subtract eight?

Where does he end up? No, no, no. You're both picking up valid points. His profile changed, and he became the player that he was before. You're not wrong there. I think everybody, like, we're having this debate because it's an open conversation right now. I will say the one way I could change on this to come back to something

that Dave was saying about DK Metcalf, I would say if Lockett gets traded and it's Metcalf blank, even if it is Willis, then Metcalf is the top because we're probably walking into one. That's the number I was going to throw out. Wow, there you go, Dave. I was going to say 140 plus targets. And that would put Metcalf,

if things stay the same, and to be clear, I love Malik Willis. I watched all the Liberty Games down here in Virginia, so I am a Malik Willis stan from day one. Like, don't come at me like you didn't watch the entire season and start like February. Oh, Malik Willis, shut the hell don't come at me like you didn't watch the entire season and start like February. Oh, Malik Willis, shut the hell up. You weren't there in

November. But I'm saying it's like he's still the raw throws. I could see 55% completion, that type of thing, but I'm okay with it if it's Metcalf and blank. If it's Metcalf and Lockett, I'm still going to have hesitancy and I would still probably take Williams very close. I think that it sounds like I hate Mike Williams

and I don't. I'm really just trying to have a debate here. But I don't think that we can say Mike Williams is a consistent performer, and I think if he continues to be consistent... I don't think any of them are consistent. That was my point. It wasn't that Mike Williams is consistent. We're comparing five either previously bad or inconsistent wide

receivers. What is the difference, though? Because I know Jamie's not on the show, but he liked Mike Williams as a late-round pick. We all did. But the comparison he made was Devante Parker was going into the last year of his deal. He had a big season. Corey Davis was going into the last year of his rookie deal. He had a big season. Mike Williams going into the last year of his rookie deal. How, I don't feel super confident that Mike Williams isn't going to turn back into what he was before because you don't have a Devante Parker Parker like season Corey Davis is a little bit different because he changed teams but I just don't want to pay up for this outlier season when he just

made so many mistakes the con the contracts is I think the biggest boosted value for him but it's not just an outlier season it's an outlier first five weeks of the season. Compare everything after week five to his entire career beforehand. And, yeah, he does have a 1,000-yard season under his belt and a 10-touchdown season under his belt. And he can wipe his brow all he wants. He was never a consistent fantasy performer, which makes those years all the more baffling.

There are no consistent fantasy performers we're talking about in this segment. You're kind of true on that. Metcalf no mech half had he's had back-to-back years where he starts off amazing and then he turns into dog poo and then with tyler lockett he's been the poster child for inconsistency for the last four years judy certainly hasn't been there sutton hasn't been there so heath you're absolutely right on that. These are all guys that are fairly inconsistent. I just don't know if I can gravitate toward Mike Williams outside of saying he's in the right offense. He's got a great quarterback.

He's in line for 120 targets, but we can say those same things for the top two Broncos guys. And we'll see what we say about lock it and Metcalf. Okay, cool. All right. Who would you rather have? I did feel, you know, and we'll see what we say about Lockett and Metcalf. Okay, cool. All right, who would you rather have? You know, sometimes I try to bring up an opposing viewpoint,

and then I end up really arguing for it, and it sounds like that's how I feel. I don't hate Mike Williams. I'm just a little worried that he's going to go Devontae Parker on us. Last thing, what round? What round? What round on Mike Williams today? I would take Judy over him. I'd probably go round five or round on Mike Williams today? I would take Judy over him. I'd probably go around five or six on Mike Williams.

I'll say six. I'd say five, six. That's what I was going to say. I was going to say four or five, but good grief. Tell me Mike Williams has only had one good season, and then I'd definitely take Judy over him. He had 10 touchdowns. Yes, that was great.

He had 1,000 yards. That was great. He didn't really put it together. He's had one. He's had three seasons better than Jerry Judy. That is true, but that's not how I evaluate players, especially Jerry Judy, who has had terrible quarterback play for each of his two seasons

and got hurt last year, and now he has Russell Wilson. Look, I could be wrong, sure, but that whole thing is better than Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy hasn't had his career yet. His career starts now. Okay? Come on. Fair. I agree.

That's how we're all going to draft him and everything. That's absolutely correct. Well, that is how we're going to draft him. Would you rather have Terry McLaurin or your favorite, or Mike Williams for Heath and Jake? Terry McLaurin or Mike Williams? Terry's easy over Mike Williams, but I would right now still lean,

even as I just said, even with Lockett, I would still take DK Metcalf because Terry McLaurin for me is, look, we all love Terry McLaurin we love the town we love what it but look at his past two years 100 plus 30 130 plus targets both of the seasons Wentz upgrade question mark really like I know Wentz is better like but you look at the numbers if I gave you a blank a versus b of Heineke versus Wentz last year you wouldn't be able to guess who's who they're that close that's how it is the only the biggestke versus Wentz last year, you wouldn't be able to guess who's who. They're that close. That's how it is. The biggest difference is Wentz has the touchdown to interception ratio,

but there's actually been more aggressiveness downfield from Heineke, and they'll both be the types that, you know, when they get in the end zone, just throw it and potentially get an interception versus like Garoppolo throwing it into the ground instead. But the point being is, I don't really, I'm saying all this to say is, I don't really think Terry McLaurin's arrow is pointing up I think he's the same like yeah he might be a little bit more efficient but are we really going to say all of a sudden he's going to score eight touchdowns I don't think that's who McLaurin is like I just don't see where this quarterback change moves McLaurin way up the charts a few spots sure but I still DK, and I'd have a long thought about you know what? I'll say this, because Dave loves

to say, what round? I'll let you take Terry McLaurin and wait two rounds to take Mike Williams. Okay. I don't know. Do we have to go any further than that, or are we good? That was a pretty good answer. Yeah, I like McLaurin over all of them. I also like McLaurin over all of them. I'll say round four.

I feel okay with McLaurin. And the arrow isn't pointing up, but it's not flat. I think it's maybe like a 40-degree acute angle. The treadmill's on a three-degree incline. When I used to go on a treadmill, that would be the incline for me. Point three. There you go. Did you say point three or three?

This is a weird one here. Michael Gallup or Devontae Smith? Who would you rather have, Michael Gallup or Devontae Smith right now? Oh, Smith. Smith. I'm going to take a receiver coming off an ACL. Might not even play the first half of the year. I assume he will, but I don't know that.

I'll take Smith, but I think he's behind six of the wide receivers we've talked about so far. That's certainly fair. I don't know how people feel about Michael Gallup, but if he's the number two wide receiver... That's great. He'll be awesome around Halloween. That's what I was going to say. I think Dave brings up the interesting point, though. He's the number two,

but what kind of number two? As you just said, do we not see the real Michael Gallup until week eight, do we not see the real Michael Gallup until week eight? Do we not see the real Michael Gallup until 2023? Like, that's... We don't know for sure. You know who the number two receiver is going to be in Dallas this year?

Cedric Wilson. Dalton Schultz. Well, there you go. Did you know Hunter Henry had more targets than Mike Williams two years ago? You better hope they don't upgrade that receiving core. They just gave him $40 million guaranteed. Bad contracts happen all the time.

And you know what they said about him? They were like, we love him as a deep ball receiver. Oh, is that what they said? Yeah. That's all they talked about. That was the first thing they said. I was disappointed for my Josh Palmer shares when they reassigned him. I mean, just me him. Me too.

Me too. He is definitely going to finish as a number two receiver in an incredibly frustrating way. And Heath and I are going to have the same exact argument a year from now. I just wanted to clarify. People can go ahead and wipe out

half of the good wide receivers if they want to care about consistency that much. The idea of half of the top 24 wide receivers are inconsistent, whatever that means. And I just don't care. Yeah, I know. That's fine. No, I think it's probably, in a lot of cases,

going to be a smart thing. I think there are different levels of that. You know, to me, Marvin Jones is always the poster child for this, where he just wasn't as useful as his fantasy production, but because you, because you weren't drafting him to be a starter and you weren't starting him.

I think Mike Williams will be drafted as a starter and will be started. And it's easier to deal with the lumps in three receiver leagues. I I'd say, uh, cause you just have to start those guys most of the time. So is that fair? I think there was a good point that maybe if you're finishing as a wide receiver 30 at the end of the year

and you're that inconsistent, that there's some fool's gold. But if you're finishing as a top 20 wide receiver and you're inconsistent, all that means is you won me four or five weeks. Yeah. All I've done for the last 10 minutes has started looking at wide receivers that are free agents in 2023 to find the next to find the next mike williams davante parker cory davis i will say that as you're saying that thinking of other names you know mike williams isn't too dissimilar from like darnold mooney honestly as we're talking about it more. From that up and down throughout the year. You know who's in a contract year coming up?

Darnold Mooney? Terry McLaurin. Oh. Hey, we'll say this. For everybody out there, I'm not poo-pooing on Dave with this real quick, but I did an article about five years ago now on contract year myth, and I used, you had to play at least 25 percent

of the steps no i just for everybody out there i know that's not what you're saying i wanted to clarify that to say that is it was legitimately a third of the players improved a third of the players decreased and a third of the players held the same and the held the same was within five percent either direction of their production. So it legitimately means nothing. Okay. I was going to do free agency, but I think I've enjoyed this. It's been a fun conversation, fun debate.

Any weekend plans, Jake? Yeah, I'm actually going to Raleigh to see the Carolina Hurricanes. So there you go. Oh, cool. I know. And I think I might be going to Brooklyn to see the Carolina Hurricanes. So there you go. Oh, cool. I know. And I think I might be going to Brooklyn to see the Miami Hurricanes if they play tomorrow night. So that'll be... They have to win today.

And I wish I was going to New Orleans to drink Pat O'Brien Hurricanes. Keith, are you going to go try and watch Hurricanes? I don't know. You've got to get into this conversation somehow. Sit on the beach. Yeah, I was trying to think. I think I'm probably going to be coaching a couple of youth basketball games. watch hurricanes like i don't know you guys yeah conversation on the beach yeah um yeah i was trying to think i i think i'm probably going to be coaching a couple of youth basketball games with a bunch of kids that are not my son um but i don't think we're playing any there's a lot of

hurricane teams down here playing youth basketball i don't think we're playing any of them this weekend how are you at monopoly jake this came up on our last show. Everybody always says they rarely lose, but I rarely lose because I am the go for the corner, orange and red, and I am a manipulated trader, just like I am in fantasy. So, yeah.

Be forewarned. I don't know what any of that means, so I'm just going to say that Jake is going way to Monopoly if we ever play together. Jake Seeley, thank you very much for coming on follow him at all in kid and tell us about you know other podcasts articles and all those things yeah or the athletic uh the free agency as you guys are doing i have that next week and my podcast all in football which you can watch on youtube and ftn uh doing the same thing as you guys different Different days, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday for next week, but going to be talking free agency as much as everybody else is

next week. So, busy week, but a lot of fun for us. And we hope to have you on again soon. Thanks very much for coming on. Thanks, Adam. Alright, we'll take a quick break. We'll come right back. No, just me. We'll take a quick break and we'll come right back on Fantasy Football today. What does

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That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. We are back. Heath, we good? I'm good. What do you mean? Okay, no, I just, you know, just kind of felt

like you were mad at me. I was never mad at anyone. How is that different from any other episode that the two of you have been on? I like you were mad at me i was never mad i was that different from any other episode that the two of you i have never been mad at anyone on this show today and in the history of like actually legitimately mad over something that happened on a podcast you have been more mad than anyone else. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You actually legitimately get mad. I remember my first year, I think before I'd ever done a football podcast, after a baseball

podcast, I had gotten you so frazzled that you yelled at me for like two or three minutes after the podcast saying, this can't happen and multiple obscenities. And Al Melchior was sitting there next to me and he said, you finally got done. You're out of breath. And Al said, Adam, I don't know that he did anything different than he normally does. What did you do? I just pushed your buttons in an argument to the point to where I think you said it seemed like I was trying to make you look stupid or something, which I can't imagine I would do that. That was what? How many years ago was that? Seven. Today is what?

It could have been three weeks. March 10th, so five days from now will be my seventh year anniversary at CBS. All right. Wow. Okay. Well, I've grown up a lot since then, so I apologize. I'm sorry. I hope I have, too. Our podcast has certainly grown up a lot.

All right. News and notes. Green Bay franchise, Devontae Adams. Seattle's releasing linebacker Bobby Wagner. Tampa Bay, this is actually something worth talking about here. Tampa Bay unlikely to resign either Ronald Jones or Leonard Fournette, according to The Athletic. I don't know if this is a huge surprise, but Dave, give me a quick reaction to that. Going to be a new running back in Tampa Bay this year. Hopefully.

Totally not surprised by Ronald Jones being jettisoned. A little surprised by Leonard Fournette, and I think it's really bad for Leonard Fournette's fantasy value. You think about where he was in 2021. Cushy situation, three down back, getting handoffs and passes from Tom Brady, fantasy stud.

Now Brady's gone. Now Fournette could be gone. Fournette could end up in a timeshare somewhere else. Definitely starting to look like one of the running backs that I will avoid on draft day. Heath, the Panthers appear open to trading Christian McCaffrey. It's going to take a haul. But what does this do to McCaffrey's dynasty value? I don't think anybody's going to give a large sum of draft picks

for a running back that's expensive. I think 90% of the league has recognized from the failures of others that you should not give those big contracts to running backs. It's not impacting my opinion of Christian McCaffrey. failures of others that you should not give those big contracts to running backs. So I'm not, it's not impacting my opinion of Christian McCaffrey. Anybody who would give that type of contract, that type of load to take on that contract would presumably plan on giving him 400 touches per season.

Cause otherwise, why would you, the dumbest thing in the world, the training for him that you can't give up that much for him. But Dave Gettleman wishes he was on a team just so he could give up a first-round pick to get Christian McCaffrey. He's screaming from the corner

of a dusty OTB in New York. I'll give you a one, give him! Something like that. What's an OTB? Off-track betting. It just seems like that's where get on these days expected to pursue Mitchell true Bisky. And apparently it could be an open quarterback competition.

I don't know if this was off the air on the air, but I was like, no way. Well, we'll see about that. And like people have forgotten what Mitchell true Bisky was like in Chicago. That's what I'm saying.

Uh, the giants haven't, they say they've seen him for the last three years. Sure, Brian Dable knows that he can run the offense. It was a Daniel Jones joke. Exactly 1,400 votes in the poll from two days

ago. 48% of the respondents said Mitchell Trubisky is the better NFL quarterback. 38% said Daniel Jones. 14% chose C results, so they didn't have to. 38% said Daniel Jones. 14% chose C's results, so they didn't have to pick either. If Daniel Jones took a year off from quarterbacking and then we compared him to someone really bad,

he would win. You know what I mean? Well, but I think it's fair that there is, they're basically the same guys statistically as passers. But Trubisky is slightly better in basically every category. So there's no argument that Jones is better than Trubisky. You can make an argument that Trubisky might be slightly better than Jones. There's nothing better than having one bad quarterback than having two bad quarterbacks and letting them compete

and rotate in and out of the lineup. That's the problem with it. If they sign him, then there's no leash. There was also a report, though, that the Saints could be interested in Daniel Jones. Oh, really? So maybe there's a way that they could send Daniel Jones to the Saints and send

him a fourth round pick and they'd agree to pay the rest of his contract. I don't know. Could be. He's only got one year left, so he'll be a free agent. I think after this year, I'd like to see Jones play with a better offensive line and in a more aggressive offense.

We should talk about that. Just not even about Daniel Jones, but the offensive line is I think the biggest, biggest excuse given to Daniel Jones. even about Daniel Jones, but the offensive line is, I think the biggest excuse given to Daniel Jones and it is terrible, but just keep in mind two years ago, the chargers had the worst offensive line in football and Justin Herbert had the best rookie season ever basically. And last year, the Bengals didn't have the worst offensive line in football, but it was bad. I think it was bottom five according to PFF and pass pass blocking. So yeah, it matters to a degree. But also, that interception he threw against, was it the Chiefs on Monday Night Football?

It's one of the worst plays I've ever seen in my life. So, it's not just the offensive line. I think that's pretty good. No, no, no. I'm not saying it is. I don't think Daniel Jones has a lot of redeemable qualities. Just said he might have a couple of good games. He might be even serviceable if he didn't have a lot.

Because I just think he's too jittery behind the line. A lot of quarterbacks are like that. He's that when you play golf, and I don't do that anymore, but you hit one out of every 10 strokes. It's just amazing. Keeps you coming back. Oh, I could do that. That's Daniel Jones.

It gives you these glimpses. Then the other nine, you know you're in the sand. Anyway, Cleveland has... Like you hit a 350-yard drive and the ball's rolling and rolling and you think it's going to go in the hole and then it falls down into the bunker? Right. That's why I don't golf anymore.

I got so frustrated with that. 350-yard drives that in the bunker. Cleveland has had Derek Carr on its radar according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Let Cleveland has had Derek Carr on its radar according to the Cleveland playing dealer. Let's see where Derek Carr ends up. The Tennessee Titans signed linebacker Harold Landry to a five-year extension, $87.5 million.

The Lions signed Josh Reynolds to a two-year deal. Any fantasy relevance there? Really happy for him. Not yet. Maybe one of your last picks in a best ball. Pittsburgh is not interested in signing Deshaun Watson, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

And he actually has a court date on Friday. So we might know a little bit more about his dynasty value, his 2022 value, fairly soon. Who tweeted yesterday that if the court date goes well, Deshaun Watson will be a stealer shortly after? Because that was also out on Twitter yesterday. Well, I will get ready for a Saturday. Did you have anything on the Vikings selling everybody? I've seen some of that.

No, I didn't have that. That they want to do the rebuild thing and get Cousins off the books. Dalvin was on the list too. A bunch of defensive players as well. It was the real Sean King. Oh, for the Watson Steelers? Hearing if things go well Friday to Sean Watson to the Steelers is happening soon after. Wow.

I don't know if I buy into that. Okay, let's see what happens. There's some more news that doesn't really matter. So let's go to our emails. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. I mean, nobody cares. This is some Dynasty questions here. This one is from Niall.

Sorry, I don't know. And I do that every time, and I always forget, and I'm very sorry. 14 team, 20 man, PPR Dynasty League, three receivers, two flex, one QB. I have the first and the fourth overall picks in the rookie draft. I will not pick again after that until 3.6. I also have the 2023 first round pick of the absolute worst team in the league. And that is my only rookie pick next year. So, okay, he doesn't have a lot of picks, but he does have one and four in round one this year, and presumably a very high first round pick next year,

and a third round pick this year. He gives his roster, and he says, should I just keep one and four and take the best running back and wide receiver with those picks? Should I try to trade them for running back? What do you think? I have an offer of Brandon Ayuk

and 10 overall for number four. No. Nope. Do not do that. Alright, so looking at his running backs... The summary on his team is that his receivers are pretty good. His running backs, he's got Antonio Gibson and then like nothing.

Nothing great. I'm 100% as of right now taking Brees Hall and whichever of the top three wide receivers falls. Would you consider a second running back at four? Is there another one that's good enough that'll be there at four? Is if Spiller goes in the second round to a good landing spot, then yes. But otherwise, it would probably be Garrett Wilson or Drake London or whoever wide receiver three ends up being.

Or a trade. And I don't know if you feel so strongly about Brees Hall, but I assume that if Isaiah Spiller ends up in a much better destination, that you'd be cool taking him one overall. Did you say that or no? I've felt that way. And I have let the combine impact me just a little bit because Brees Hall tested better than I expected. And I already liked him as a player. So I've kind of gone a little bit further in the breeze hall is 101 but yes if breeze hall fell to the third round um then yes it wouldn't be him at 101 but if he goes in the second to a team that has 250 touches available it's breeze hall for me okay uh let's go to this

one from michael hey liam, Carl, Ian, and Lip. Oh, yeah. It's a good one. Shameless. Very good. What is it, Dave? I have no idea. I just said it, but yeah. It's shameless.

By the way, I crushed the wordle today. I got it on my third guess. I got it on my second. No, you did not. I did. You bastard. 12-team standard FFPC Dynasty League. I gave up a 2023 second-round pick,

and I got James Conner. I also was offered Kadarius Tony for my 2023 first-round pick. No. No. What about the Conner one? 2023 second-round pick for Conner. Totally fine with it.

You're buying a running back for the next year to two years for a second round pick hopefully your team doesn't stink in 2022 so that that pick isn't too early in the second round of 2023 i want to i want to apologize i shouldn't have said that i got it in two it's true i did but i just i'm a little bit irritable about wordle every time you bring it up because i missed one one day and i'm at nine oh no and adam cheated yeah so that he still shows 100 and every time i think about the fact that adam's at 100 and i'm not because he cheated it makes me a little bit angry how many letters did you have after your first guess? I start with raise, so that kind of helps. Same word every day.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I start with store. Yeah, you didn't have quite the, I had a pretty good advantage. I change my word every day. I don't know if that. Yeah. I always try and pick a word

that might actually be their word. So having a word like store, like how often is it a basic word like that? Rarely. How often do you get it on the first gift? I usually start with rupee. I usually start with rupee, but that one day I decided not.

All right. This is from Mark. How do I not know this? Dear Billy, Doc, Dick, and Chavez. It's so baseball-y, isn't it? Billy, Doc, Dick, and Chavez. Well, I'm in a dynasty league. I have no true number one receiver.

It's a three receiver, super flex league, tight end premium with two flex spots. I have some guys that could develop into number one. Should I stand pat or try to trade for a true number one? He has DJ Moore, Gabriel Davis, Tyler Boyd, Crowder, Tim Patrick, Rondell Moore, KJ Osborne, Zay Jones, James Washington, and Amari Rogers. Do not think you have multiple players that could develop into a number one personally, but and I don't know if he's got many combinations of players that he could trade for a true number one.

Like the best case is trading off Moore and Gabe Davis and seeing what you can get for those two together. But I don't know. It would have to be a really good number one receiver for me to part with both of those guys. I wonder if now's the time to try and move on from tim patrick because there's just so much excitement about the broncos yeah dj more and someone for a true number one would you guys do that it'd have to be yes would you do that for... DK? I don't think you can right now. Right? Would you do that for A.J. Brown?

More in any of these guys for A.J. Brown? I'd probably do more in Gabe for A.J. Brown. I would try and make it Patrick instead of Gabe, but yeah. Dave, I'm a little upset you didn't get the intro. I've never seen the movie, but I feel like you have. Billy, Doc, Dick, and Chavez. Scott Fish knows. Young Guns.

Young Guns. Never seen it. Really? Didn't Bon Jovi do the soundtrack to that? Oh, yeah. Blaze of Glory. I don't know. Did he do the whole soundtrack?

Blaze of Glory is an awesome song. I know it's from the Young Guns soundtrack, but Scott Fish, can you let me know before I sign off here? Let me know in the chat. That's Heath and Dave. I want to thank Jake Seeley at All In Kid. And thank you to all of you for watching and listening. And looking forward to many, many Mike Williams

debates and a bonus pod on Deshaun. We'll have a bonus pod, I'm assuming, at some point this weekend. So thanks again, everybody. Have a great weekend. If we don't talk to you before Monday, big week of football coming up, big week of fantasy football coming up. And we will check you later.