Fantasy Football Today - Players We Don't Talk About Enough (05/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 15, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Let's spend some time on players we haven't covered enough. We'll start with Terry McLaurin (1:30). Will Jayden Daniels unlock a new upside in McLaurin, and does he actually have a lower floor than you might realize? We've also got some news and notes (12:45) on Jahmyr Gibbs and more ... We spend time on D.K. Metcalf (17:35) and Jordan Addison (25:15). There are some things working against Metcalf like target share and quarterback play, but he still gets so many end zone targets! Meanwhile, Addison is tough to figure out because we don't know what to expect from J.J. McCarthy ... We profile Alvin Kamara (32:55) and Rhamondre Stevenson (39:30). These two guys will be dependent on catches. Kamara is 29 years old and has been inefficient, but that doesn't seem to be scaring off too many drafters ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Welcome to the Wednesday Show, everybody. It is Fantasy Football Today. We have spent a lot of time talking about Justin Jefferson and Drake London. We talk about Drake London all the time. We talk about Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley, but I'm going to give you five guys that I don't think we've talked about enough on this show. We'll kind of do some deep dives on these guys,

and they are DK Metcalf, Alvin Kamara, Ramondre Stevenson, Terry McLaurin, and Jordan Addison. Adam Azer here with Heath Cummings, Jamie Eisenberg, and Dave Richard. I'm going to let you guys pick the player that we start with, but who wants to pick it? Who wants to nom? It's your turn to nominate a player. Who are the players?

All right, we got Metcalf, Kamara, Stevenson, McLaurin, Addison. I vote we go in order of reverse consensus ranking. So whoever is ranked the lowest in our consensus right now goes first. That would be Jordan Addison or Ramondre Stevenson, I would think. Let's go McLaurin first. I like Jamie. So there you go. You got three different answers.

No, Jamie had the conviction. We're going to start with Terry McLaurin. Let's go. Terry McLaurin was the number 33 wide receiver in non-PPR, number 32 in full PPR last year. But per game, he was basically 40th. And he was wide receiver 27 in the draft that we did last week, a round five pick.

Terry McLaurin, excuse me, I'm going to give you one stat for each guy to start. And I'm going to get what I want from you is what is his upside, what is his downside, and where do you have him ranked, and then we will start. Here's your stat for Terry McLaurin. Four straight seasons with four to five touchdown catches after catching seven touchdowns in his rookie season.

So he has been not a good touchdown guy. In those five seasons, the Commanders have thrown 18, 16, 21, 24, and 24 touchdown passes. Alright, why don't we start with Jamie, since you nominated him. I want his upside. I want everybody upside, and then everybody

downside, and then everybody. Where do you have him ranked? Jamie Dave Heath, go. His upside is that he could be a top 15 wide receiver. He's certainly talented enough to do that. Everybody downside. And then everybody, where do you have ranked? Jamie, Dave Heath, go. His upside is that he could be a top 15 wide receiver. He's certainly talented enough to do that. This will hopefully be the best quarterback that he's ever played with and maybe the best system that he's ever played in. I hope both those things kind of come to fruition. He gets eight touchdowns, 1,200 yards, and 90 catches.

Dave. I think if Jaden Daniels is the quarterback, and especially the thrower that we think he is, I think there's top 12 upside for Terry McLaurin. I like the projection that Jamie gave. I think he could be a little bit better yardage-wise, but we saw Jaden Daniels crush it on downfield throws, and we haven't

seen McLaurin really paired with a quarterback that can hit those throws on the regular. He's, you mentioned what he's done like in the past four years. Uh, he's averaged at least seven targets per game. Each of the last four seasons, he just hasn't ever been big on fantasy production. He's never even had a year where he's averaged 15 PPR points. His downside is to be around 11 and a half, 12 PPR points per game. That's still good enough to be a high end number three wide receiver. I'm taking him in round five. He's ranked as a top 30 wide out.

I think his upside is a mid wide receiver too, like somewhere around wide receiver, 18 to 20, maybe 80 catches for 1100 yards and six or seven touchdowns i'm very like i i'm pretty excited about jayden daniels as a fantasy football asset very skeptical that he's going to in his rookie year as a passer result in a big spike for terry mclaurin in production dave kind of touched on his downside as a number three receiver uh kind of you know is downside as a number three receiver. Is that something you, Heath and Jamie, agree with? McLaurin is probably not going to be any worse than a number three receiver.

He was last year. Per game, he was 40th. I would not say that at all. I'd say number four for sure. Jamie, the downside for McLaurin? Number three receiver. I mean, we've seen the floor for him. It was 40th.

Last year, he was 40th. Yeah, that was bad. Technically, it was 30th. And that was when Washington was throwing more than any other team in the league. Yeah, they were 16th in gross passing yards per game. It was close. It was, yeah. Where do you guys have Terry McLaurin ranked?

27. 35. And you know what? All three of us do not have him as a top 24 wide receiver, which means we're drafting him closer to the floor than the ceiling. Perfect guy that you'll see on draft day in round five, maybe round six, and say, all right, this is a good value. I'll take him.

So if I look at the three guys. I guess I have him 30. You have him 30, Jamie? I guess so, based on the graphic. Oh. All right, the graphic is Jamie at 30,

David 29 for McLaurin, Heath at 35 for McLaurin. I did say he went 27th in the half PPR draft that we did. These are PPR rankings that you're looking at if you're watching

at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. Let's take a look at the three wide receivers who went just after him. DK Metcalf, who we're also going to talk about George Pickens and Malik Neighbors. Actually, I had the order wrong. It was Metcalf

Neighbors and Pickens right after Terry McLaurin. Dave, do you think that's an appropriate range for McLaurin? Give me the names one more time. Yeah, Metcalf Neighbors Pickens. The only one that I've got ranked ahead of

McLaurin. No, there's two. Metcalf and Pickens I've got ranked ahead of McLaurin. Neighbors behind. Yeah, I guess the question here is do we know what McLaurin is at this point?

Because what is he, 28? He's been in the league five years. Same as Metcalf. Right? But do we think there's a ceiling that he could reach? I know you guys have already sort of talked about it, but as I look at him and say,

can Jayden Daniels take him to another level? Because I still think he's kind of a boring pick in round five, unless you think there's just going to be this connection. Maybe it's the deep ball connection. He's never really had a good deep ball thrower with him. You know, like Pickens to me just has so much more upside than McLaurin, but maybe Heath, maybe Daniel's going to unlock something in McLaurin that we haven't seen

yet. It's possible. And I think like, it's probably touchdowns. If it is, you look at his yards per catch. And we've seen a couple of years, 2019 and 2022, where he was over 15 yards per catch. The thing is, we've got three straight years, age 26, 27, 28, and I know it was impacted by his quarterback,

but where he was the clear number one guy, 17 game seasons, no injuries, and those three years of his peak, not 80 catches in any of them, 77, 77, 79, didn't get to 1,200 yards, didn't have more than five touchdowns. It's hard for me to believe in the age 29 season with a rookie quarterback who's probably going to run the ball eight times a game that he's going to have a career season now. I mean, you're hoping for what happened with DJ Moore. Right.

Like that's the type of, you know, career resurrection you want. And I don't think if DJ Moore goes to Chicago for Justin Fields' rookie year that that happens. It's very fair to say that, but, you know, you're also talking about a running quarterback that's had an inconsistent start to his career. Granted, experience certainly matters, but Jaden Daniels comes into the NFL more experienced than Justin Fields did.

So hopefully that will be part of it as well. And I think the system is probably a better fit for what Terry McLaurin will do. I was looking at what Cliff Kingsbury's number one receivers have done and it's so all over the map because of injuries and suspensions. And, but you go back to the first full year of DeAndre Hopkins there and he was a monster. Now, granted, no one should expect Terry McLaurin to be peak DeAndre Hopkins. Cause that's just not fair, but can he have a touchdown season? Well, Hopkins did that in an abbreviated year, his second season there in Arizona. Can he have, you know, an impact a la Christian Kirk, a la Marquise Brown, you know, guys going into that system?

You know, yes, he can and maybe be better than those guys. So it's not just really McLaurin fitting in with Jane Daniels. It's it's Jahan Dodson going into year three. It's Luke McCaffrey. There was a report yesterday that McCffrey was playing on the outside and what does that mean for either one of mclaurin or dodson do they get more time in the plot and playing more inside if mccaffrey is going to be in three receiver sets an outside receiver so there's you know some moving parts here you know how much will they use you know both tight ends you know zach hurts and ben said it you know

and getting those guys involved and obviously they have one of the best pass catching running backs, no matter what you think of him at his age, Austin Eckler was still going to be a factor in the passing game. So, you know, Jayden Daniels has a lot to work with, but this should still be his go-to guy. So I think if we just view him as a number three receiver, you're fine. If you view him as, you know, somebody that's going to be top 15 or top 12, as we said, the upside could be, then you're reaching and you shouldn't be doing that. So should he go ahead of Pickens? No way.

Metcalf's in a similar range, but I would still prefer Metcalf. I think when you see you get to, you say round five, it's a boring pick. In a three-receiver league, it's hard to say that there's a safer pick than him. But just make sure that there are better receivers not on the board still. Don't reach for him just based on his name. Okay. I think you're going to see kind of a similarity, I think, between Metcalf and McLaurin. They came in in the same year. They both reached the 900-yard mark as rookies, Metcalf right on the nose at 900, and they both had really exciting sophomore seasons. That was the best year for McLcclure and he

had 74.5 yards per game uh i don't know if it was his highest fantasy finish i think it probably was but uh they never took the next step in the next three seasons go ahead but the big difference is that like dk's bad touchdown season would be the second best touchdown season for terry mccorn it's like dk's gonna score eight to ten touchdowns. Well, that'll get me to my favorite stat about DK Metcalf, and we'll come to that in a moment here. Let me tell you about a podcast that we should be having for you tonight, NFL schedule release.

Is that like official? Is it going to happen today, tonight? 8 p.m. All right, good. Because I thought it was going to happen last week, but we're good to go. So at some point tonight, we're going to be talking about the schedule release and we'll have a bonus episode for you there. And then, of course, there's FFT Dynasty with Heath getting a guy named Ryan Heath, who

we talk about on this show because we bring up his tweets a lot, coming on the podcast on Friday. And if you want to see any of our podcasts, you can listen to them. You can go to CBSSports.com slash podcasts and see the full list. They're on YouTube as well. So we have a terrific lineup for you. If you're into the NBA, check out the Beyond the Arc podcast. All right, let's take a break here.

We'll come back. We'll give you some news and notes on the Lions, on the Broncos backfield. And then we'll get to the other players that we haven't talked enough about right after this. I am so dreading groceries this week. Why? You can skip it. Oh, what? Just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin?

Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats? Skippable. Midnight snacks? Skip. My neighbor's nightly saxophone practices? Uh, nope. You're on your own there. Could have skipped it. Could have skipped it.

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Bigger Lions news for fantasy purposes, Jameer Gibbs. Brad Holmes, their general manager, said he expects a bigger purposes, Jameer Gibbs. So Brad Holmes, their general manager, said he expects a bigger workload for Jameer Gibbs. And Dave, I remind people for Jameer Gibbs, who's probably going to be a consensus first-round pick, the last nine games of the season, when David Montgomery returned from injury, Gibbs was the number,

he was a top six running back overall in half and full PPR, but he was 10th per game and he had let's see he was on pace for only 245 touches per 17 games so when you see brad holmes say expects a bigger workload from jameer gibbs what do you think about that i get excited i i know there's crossover between your stat and my stat, which is in the 10 games that he played at least 50% of the snaps in. Gibbs scored nine touchdowns. He averaged 18.1 PPR fantasy points per game. 14.5 non-PPR fantasy points per game.

So if he's going to see more playing time, that means more snaps. It means more opportunities. It means that Gibbs is probably on track to have a shot to be a top five fantasy running back, which is where we're drafting him right now. Right, but your stat, it includes the games that Montgomery missed, and Gibbs was just an absolute monster there. When Montgomery was healthy at the end of the year, they split fairly evenly. And he was the number 10 running back per game in both half and full PPR. And I don't know how they're looking at it,

but he had 12 rush attempts per game last year and three and a half catches per game. So 15.6 touches per game. That's overall. Overall. Okay. I would, he didn't say he's going to see more work than he did when David Montgomery was healthy last year.

Maybe that's what he meant, but I'm assuming more than 15.5 touches per game, which is going to make him an easy top five running back. It's interesting with their receiving core, because how much more work do they put on his plate in that regard? Losing Josh Reynolds and no real significant replacement. And so, does he get more opportunities in the passing game? Yeah, man, that would be awesome. I was assuming it would just be, I think maybe we've been drafting David Montgomery

a little too high. Would you take Montgomery or McLaurin in a vacuum? Depends what you mean. Montgomery. I think probably McLaurin and PBR. Definitely three-widers here. Obviously they're pretty close the way you mean. Montgomery. I think probably McCormick and PBR. All right. Obviously, they're pretty close the way you guys answered that. If you're saying it's round five, I'm taking McCormick.

Okay. Sean Payton kind of sort of said there would be a competition at running back. I personally didn't make too much of what he said. I didn't think he said anything at all. Yeah. All right. I won't. Okay.

I did see people saying that for sure. Like it was, it was a long, long answer that said very, very little. Yeah. He said, yeah. Some reporters said he brought in some rookie running backs. You expect a full out competition basically. And he, he didn't really, I think he was just, I make absolutely nothing of it. I don't think anyone should.

So, uh, Buffalo signed MVS. Marquez Valdez, Scantling to a one-year deal. Jamie, does this have any impact on the other guys that we might be excited about in Buffalo? No. I mean, it's a good signing because he's got experience, and that's something I think that Josh Allen needs. And he'll make a play down the field once every three or four games

that'll help them. But it know replacing Gabe Davis with Gabe Davis essentially you know so there's there's nothing that should impact Keon Coleman it's nothing that should impact one of if not both Shakir and Curtis Samuel it's just I think more for depth there's a reason why he was on the market as long as he was. Right. I think the interesting question, you said he's just kind of a direct replacement for Gabe Davis, and that makes sense. Gabe Davis played like 99% of the snaps last year. If that's the case, then you can't play Keon Coleman

and one of those slot guys and both tight ends. Yeah, I didn't mean he's going to play as many snaps. I just, you know. Right. I mean, I think he's a really good blocker, so he might be on the field quite a bit. Yeah, that was always the thing about MVS is he always played more snaps than we expected.

I think that may have disappeared a little, or that may have changed a little bit in 2023, but he was always on the field and never did anything. But I hope it's not an obstacle to Coleman, you know, in week one, maybe you never know how, how early the rookie wide receivers are going to get into the mix.

We'll see. All right. Players. We don't talk about enough. I had five of them. Now we have four. Cause we talked about Terry McLaurin. Let's talk about DK Metcalf.

My favorite Metcalf stat, he has been top four in end zone targets in all five seasons of his career. And he went one pick after Terry McLaurin. He was wide receiver 28 around five pick in our three receiver half PPR league. Last year, Metcalf per game was 15th in non-PPR, 20th in full PPR, 20th in half PPR,

and 23rd in full PPR. And if I were going to summarize his career, it would be encouraging rookie season, incredible second season, where I would have to think that if we go back to 2020, his second year in the league, we're probably talking about DK Metcalf as a first round pick in dynasty. I mean, he's a guy who was a top 10 per game wide receiver in his second season.

It was just he looked like a stud. His first four games of 2021, he again looked like a stud. And Russell Wilson was incredible. And then Russell Wilson got hurt. and then russell wilson got hurt and then dk metcalf got hurt and he played through a foot injury he had off-season surgery he has not been the same since the first four games of the 2021 season he's been basically a low-end number two wide receiver um all right so let's do upside downside and where do you have them ranked heath i'm going to start with you and i guess why don't you give us uh yeah let's do the upside thing first good heath dave jamie upside for metcalf

to your point he was i just went and looked september 2021 my number five wide receiver in dynasty wow and i think that was like that wasn't just me being high on him that was the consensus opinion he was a top five dynasty wide receiver. Big time. Yeah, he's not lived up to that for sure. The things haven't gone exactly. I think we all thought he'd be playing with healthy Russell Wilson for the next three years and he didn't. I think

DK Metcalf still has top 12 upside and I do think he has that wide receiver three floor, but maybe even maybe even high end wide receiver three floor, but maybe even high-end wide receiver three floor. And I rank him as wide receiver 29. I've got him ranked higher than Heath does, but I agree with the assessment that he can be a top 12 wide receiver.

That's his upside. He scores a ton of touchdowns and still gets a bunch of targets per game. He's been pretty steady with target volume, somewhere between 7.4 and 8 each of the last four seasons. I think he can get top 10, top 12. His downside is high-end number three receiver. I've got him ranked as a low-end number two wide receiver. I've got him 21st among wideouts.

Wow. Jamie, what do you got, upside, downside, and where are you ranking him? I think part of the problem is that we've expected him to dominate targets on his team, and he's annually gotten out-targeted by Tyler Lockett, and that's been a problem. And the last year, and now it will be two years, there's another mouth to feed in this offense that may be ascending. And it's not to say that Jackson Smith and the Jigba will be better than DK Metcalf mouth to feed in this offense that may be ascending. And it's not to say that Jackson Smith and the jigboat will be better than DK Metcalf because I don't think that'll be the case,

but he's going to command more attention. At least he should. It's another new offense he has to adjust to. So that's also been an issue. They've turned over offense coordinators too many times, I think, in his career. And what happens if they make a quarterback change at some point during the season, which could clearly happen if Gino Smith struggles because they have someone who they say they like in Sam Howell who was brought in you know from Washington so I think he's a number

three receiver you know his his his production is is kind of been evident the last two seasons does he have the potential to be better sure uh touchdowns I think if he can get another two or three, we'll put him in the top 20. But I don't think his catches and yards are going to dramatically change. Now, again, you have a 31-year-old or 32-year-old Tyler Lockett at this point. If he fades away and we get more of a two-receiver situation as opposed to a three-receiver situation, that will help DK Metcalf. But I'm drafting him as a number three receiver. He's closer to DK Metcalf for me. He's closer to Terry McLaurin for me than he is to a three-receiver situation that will help DK Metcalf. But I'm drafting him as a number three receiver. He's closer to DK Metcalf for me. He's closer to Terry McLaurin for me than he is to a top 20 guy.

Yeah, so he was out-targeting Lockett in 21 and 22. It looked like Metcalf was really becoming the true alpha, but everything changed in 2023. Lockett had one more target, I think. It was close. Lockett played one more game, I think. It was close. Lockett played one more game. Metcalf missed the first game of his career. He's been very durable.

But then the JSN thing really hurt him. I mean, in his first four seasons, the number three player on the team never had more than 63 targets. JSN had 93. Lockett, by the way, had three more targets than Metcalf last year. They had basically the same target per outrun rate. Target per outrun rate went down for Metcalf. I mean, I think it was the biggest thing is he just didn't get that many targets. What did he have last year? He had 119 targets in 16 games. He was on pace for 126 targets. The year before, he had over 140 targets. So it was a great trend for Metcalf. He was really becoming the number one guy, and that changed big time last year. I think we could all agree if he gets 126 targets in 17 games, he's not going to be a top 12

receiver, right? I mean, that's very unlikely. No. How many of those targets are in the end zone, and how many of those is the catch? I was going to say, I think in 2020, he got 129 targets in 16 games and was a top 12 wide receiver right but he had 12 touchdowns that year his target per game pace was almost exactly the same in 2023 as it was in 2021 uh yeah so i guess the the two concerns i would have for metcalf are just are the jsn and lockett you know lockett is gonna be 32 that maybe he's just done. He's coming off a terrible year for him. He had 894 yards in 17 games. He's going to be 32.

But there's that. And there's also Gino Smith. The first four years of his career, Metcalf had pretty good quarterback play, 30 or more touchdowns every year. Last year, they threw 23 touchdowns, Heath. So obviously that number needs to be higher. So that's working against him too right and I guess that's where I see the difference between Metcalf and McLaurin

for me is that I and it's not fair to Terry McLaurin because he's not played with as good of quarterbacks as DK Metcalf but I've seen DK Metcalf produce it like he's been had a 10 yard per target season he's had a couple of 10 touchdown seasons i could see him having 125 130 targets and just being hyper efficient and i think that's i still think that's more likely with geno smith than is with jayden daniels rookie season yeah i mean you should be drafting metcalf ahead of mcclellan i don't think anybody's advising otherwise it's just it's funny that we sit here and we always say, Tyler Lockett's just an afterthought, and he's underrated in how we draft him and appreciate him,

and DK Metcalf is kind of the opposite, and then Seattle values Lockett almost the same. So if I were going to make the case, let me give you a hypothetical here to take McLaurin over Metcalf. What do you think about this case? I don't buy what Geno Smith did in 2022. I buy more of what he did in 2023. And if that's the case,

Metcalf doesn't have that big of an upgrade at quarterback or that big of an advantage at quarterback over McLaurin. And there is no way McLaurin is not leading his team in targets. Whereas Metcalf, there is a very realistic way that he is not leading his team in targets. Whereas Metcalf, there is a very realistic way that he is not leading his team in targets. That would be my case if I were going to take McLaurin over Metcalf. What do you think about that?

Makes sense. It's reasonable. I still think Geno last year at 7.3 yards per target and a 4% touchdown rate is likely better than what you're getting from Jaden Daniels. All right, let's go to our next guy here. We'll stick with the wide receivers. Let's talk about Jordan Addison. Jordan Addison last year was actually a wide receiver, 31 per game and full PPR number 23 per game in a non PPR. That's terrific. Let me just give you what he did in

the first five games of the season with cousins, with Jefferson, with Hawkinson. He was on pace for 99 targets. Not a lot, but 10 touchdowns. That's a lot. Cousins was on pace for 41 pass attempts per game. Well, not on pace, but that's what he averaged. 5,093 yards, 44 touchdowns. It was a tremendous passing environment,

and Addison really took advantage. He went in round seven as wide receiver 39 in our most recent draft. Dave, you can start on Jordan Addison, upside, downside, and where you have him ranked. And we'll get into more details on Addison's rookie year, I assume, after this part? Absolutely, yeah, whatever you want, yeah.

Okay. I think his upside is a low-end number two wide receiver. I think his downside is a number four wide receiver, and that's where I'm drafting him, is a high-end number four wide receiver in round seven. I think his upside is a low-end number two wide receiver. It's almost like his upside and downside for me are more attached to when does TJ Hawkinson show up

and is he the same guy? Because if Hawkinson just can't get right this year, then I could see Addison being, and the quarterback plays okay, then I could see Addison being a number two. If Hawkinson shows up early in the year and is himself, there's a chance Jordan Addison's on the waiver wire.

Just because the Justin Jefferson, TJ Hawkinson combination with maybe not as good of quarterback play could really nerf him. But I don't, I don't think it's fair to look too much at those first five games and say, look, he wasn't near as good because a lot of rookie wide receivers are not very good. Their first five games in the NFL. Yeah. No, you're, I mean, just the raw numbers. I mean, for him to do that in his first five games, I know it was only 99 target pace, but that was still impressive. Still really impressive.

And, yeah, Jamie, go ahead. Upside, downside. Oh, Heath, where do you have him ranked, did you say? 42. Go ahead, Jamie. I mean, his upside is Jalen Waddell, you know, being the running mate to an elite wide receiver. And that's what you hope to see because he was a first-round pick in the NFL draft.

He's got a 10-touchdown season already on his resume, and he's going to be in an offense that's going to throw the ball a lot, rookie quarterback or not. So that's what you hope he can become, but I don't think that's realistic. I think the thing you're looking for is for him to be, like the guy said, a number two wide receiver. As he said, TJ Hawkinson's status is probably going to sway this dramatically because if there's one less big mouth to feed, and Hawkinson is a big mouth, then we're looking at hopefully a target spike.

We don't know what J.J. McCarthy or who J.J. McCarthy is going to favor. We know Kevin O'Connell is going to favor, and that's Justin Jefferson, and he's going to dominate targets as he should. But I think when you look at what, uh, Hawkinson's situation is, and, uh, Jesse Morse, who's one of the fantasy doctors you can follow on Twitter said today or yesterday, I just retweeted it that you're looking at maybe week four to week eight when Hawkinson is, is ready to go because of when he had a surgery, most likely a pub candidate. So if it's week eight and you're getting seven games of Jordan Addison and J.J. McCarthy adapts to the system well, or it's Sam Darnold and he's getting off to a good start,

I don't think Kevin O'Connell is changing his offense with the 29-year-old Aaron Jones in the backfield. So we're going to see a high volume of passes. We're going to see a lot of targets going in Addison's direction. He might get you off to a good start, and then he struggles a little bit when Hawkins is back and we have three mouths to feed there. So I think you should draft him as a low end number three, high end number four receiver. But again, those type of guys will

still get pushed up. He still has plenty of upside to deliver. So I don't mind him as a, as a starter in a three receiver league to open the season. I prefer him as a high end reserve. Here's one thing that you really like about Addison. So Jefferson gets hurt and the next three games he plays with Kirk Cousins. He has a quiet game against... What's that? He was a monster. Yeah.

Somewhat quiet game against the Bears. Three catches, 28 yards, and a touchdown on four targets. The next two games, he scores 31.3 points against San Francisco. That was the fluky game, right? Where he had it was right strange place i remember right before the half i remember the one strange play right i don't remember too but um yeah well he had he had like a 60 yard touchdown or something yeah um but he had 18 targets in those two games he had seven catches

in both of those games he scored more than 21 points in both those games. It's a lot of really encouraging stuff. It's just a lot, a lot changing, I guess, in the situation, specifically at quarterback, right? I mean, if Kirk Cousins were back, I think we'd be pretty excited about him. Just right, Dave, is that it? It's just McCarthy is the huge wildcard here. He's the biggest wildcard. I think the second wildcard is Hawkinson. I think we've talked about that enough. And then the third wildcard is, all right, if Addison's going to take a step forward this year, what does that mean in terms of target share? Because in those first five games, he had 5.8 targets per game. That was with Cousins. That was with Jefferson.

And then in the last eight games, there's no Cousins, and he averaged six targets per game. Some of those games were with Hawkinson. The last two of the year were not with Hawkinson. He had five targets in one. He had eight targets in the other, uh, 15.7 PPR points at Detroit and week 18. I I'm a little bit nervous about Addison reaching upside greater than a low end number two wide receiver. And I think most fancy managers will agree with me when they say that this is a really talented wide receiver in a situation that we just don't love. And if you're a fantasy manager that loves to draft talent, you're going to reach for Addison.

If you don't consider the situation, you'll love them. But if you think about the situation, it'll sour you a little bit on Addison and it'll make you want to go in a different direction at wide receiver. Yeah. you know, he could be one of those 900-yard rookies that takes a step back in year two. He also could be one of the best sell-high candidates after a hot start.

Because of Hawkinson? Because of Hawkinson, sure. We're going to take a commercial break and we're going to talk about two running backs, Alvin Kamara and Ramondre Stevenson when we come back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what

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Smart water is a simple one. Alvin Kamara will be 20. No, I knew it. Smart water is a simple one. as in the office instead of the wire. But that's where I know him from, the office. All right, Alvin Kamara is going to be 29 years old in July. Over the last three seasons, this is my favorite Kamara stat. I wouldn't say favorite, but it's a stat. He does not have a single run longer than 30 yards in three seasons. In his first four seasons, he had seven carries longer than 30 yards in three seasons. In his first four seasons, he had seven carries longer than 30 yards. But even with all of that in the last three seasons, he's still been an elite fantasy running back in two of those three years.

It's so many catches. Oh, actually here's my favorites that ready over my, over the last three seasons, Taysom Hill has 16 rushing touchdowns and Kamara has 11. That's a huge deal that Taysom Hill is gone. Anyway, Jamie, you can start here.

Upside, downside, where do you have him ranked for Alvin Kamara? His age is the only thing that scares me, really. You know, his situation may have improved, you know, with the players who have left the saints i mean this receiving core could be pretty bad you know if rashichi doesn't take a step forward at perry um the the rookie that they drafted uh ben what am i i'm blanking on his name um bub means bud means yes but not ben bud means um you know this this receiving court could be bad and so you know derrick card certainly has shown the affinity to throwing to his running backs quite a bit i don't think that will change it's it's an offense you know i mean

clint kubiak is coming from um san francisco we know what the running back did there you know as as part of that offense and camara certainly has the same type of skillset as Christian McCaffrey, just not as good. So there, there's still the potential for him to be a top 10 running back. I'm ranking him right around 15 and PPR a little bit lower than non he's, you know, should still be the lead runner ahead of Kendra Miller and Jamal Williams. You know, Williams didn't really do much to scare anybody last year after leading the league in touchdowns the year before in Detroit, so that shouldn't be an issue. If Taysom Hill is gone, then that's the opportunity that you look for for him to get back involved at the goal line. This could be the last hurrah for Alvin Kamara, so still a good number two running back that you should be looking at

in the round four range. I got him 13th. I think he's still got upside to be a top seven eight fantasy running back stays healthy all year long uh the production's been there pretty much every year 2022 the only one where it wasn't he's averaged at least 18 touches a game each of his past six seasons he was at 19.6 in 2023 he's have averaged at least five targets per game each year of his career, including 6.6 in 2023. I thought Jamie did a good job talking about the offense and Clint Kubiak and what he can do and how he can impact Alvin Kamara.

The worry is he's 29 years old, and you think that after 29 years of age and almost – he has 1,946 career touches. The tread on the tire could come off, and that would stink. So you're taking that risk a little bit, but I think that's baked into when you're drafting him. And I think most people would be okay drafting Alvin Kamara late round three into round four in full PPR. Isn't Taysom Hill still on the roster?

Yeah, he is. That's my first question. We're talking about him like he's gone. I'm sorry. And he's not. I thought they cut him. No. I don't think they can afford to.

Well, that's a huge deal. Honestly, it is. But they haven't done that yet. They need him to restructure, and they're going to push his contract into 2037. Alvin Kamara, for me, is bizarro Derrick Henry. Kamara is a borderline RB one high, very high end RB two in full PPR and a very low end RB two and non PPR.

And Henry's the opposite. Would you guys rather have a Chan or Kamara? Kamara. Kamara. it uh would you guys rather have a chan or camara camara camara uh come here but doesn't it kill you to take a 29 year old running back who is obviously showing his signs of aging he he was rb3 per game last year i know but but what he was oh my god he, he was on, oh my God, he had so many catches, even for a guy who has a lot of catches, typically 75 catches in 13 games. And he, by the way, he left week 17 early. If you took that away, he was on pace for like 103 catches. Uh, that's a lot to ask for, you know? Um, I, I understand he, but, but right. Like, like just on paper, a 29 year old running back who hasn't had a, running back who hasn't had a run longer than 30 yards in three years, it just screams Le'Veon Bell to me.

And versus the most electric player in football last year, basically going into his second year. I'm just saying, I'm not saying that I disagree, but that saying I disagree, but that's the, that's the conundrum I look at when I'm looking at those two guys on the clock, HN versus Kamara. I don't think anybody would be considering it if we thought HN

was a full-time player. Oh yeah, no shot. I wouldn't consider it if they just didn't add another running back. Yeah. Yeah. But again,

like they added a running back in the same round, right? I think that that that the saints added kendry miller last year and it didn't affect the camera at all but if mostard stays healthy it's very difficult for a chan to overcome a guy in front of him and a guy behind him whereas camara has two guys behind him and a chan also has to stay healthy which he had a hard time doing last year that's the thing is like we're talking about there is a significant risk for Kamara. I project him at RB13.

I think in PPR, I rank him at RB18. So I'm downgrading him because of that risk. But I can't say there's more risk for Alvin Kamara than there is for HN. There's a risk for HN that half of his games, he has nine or fewer touches. And I'm sorry about the Taysom Hill thing. I don't know what I was thinking there, but that stat is still really important. It's just now it's a different context with it.

Taysom Hill steals touchdowns from Kamara consistently. Well, it is also a different coordinator. So you're going from the guy who stayed on the team in P. Carmichael, who was a Sean Payton guy, to now Dennis Allen bringing in somebody different from the outside. So the Taysom Hill experiment may be done. There's no guarantee it is, but it may be done. All right.

Ramondre Stevenson is our last guy that we haven't talked enough about. We'll talk about him now. He was the number 27 running back per game in full PPR, number 30 in non-PPR. He did leave one game early with an injury. He was playing pretty well before that. He had like four terrible, terrible games, but was typically scoring a good amount

of PPR fantasy points. But when Ramondre Stevenson didn't do well, it was usually because he didn't catch a lot of passes. And the Patriots have been third and eighth in running back target rate in their last two seasons. Not sure we're going to get that from a rookie. Not sure we're going to get that from Jacoby Brissett.

We'll see. All right. Anyway, let's talk about Ramondre Stevenson, and I'm going to let Dave start with upside, downside, and where you have him ranked. I'll admit that he's got the upside to be a top 15 running back. Everything's going to have to go right for him though, including getting the majority of the targets out of the backfield in this offense. Remember they added Antonio Gibson, his one strength,

the one good thing that Gibson can do is catch the ball out of the backfield. I think the downside for Ramondre Stevenson is the waiver wire. People get tired of him not being productive, splitting too much, and they cut him because he's not getting you double-digit fantasy points per week. I'm going to be out on Ramondre Stevenson. I think a lot of people are going to target him somewhere between 20th and 25th, 26th among running backs. He's going to be behind there for me. I've got him behind Nick Chubb. I think Nick Chubb has a better chance of coming back and putting up numbers than I believe that Romandre Stevenson

can have a successful season in 2024. Jamie, go ahead. I don't think it's a bad scenario to compare those two guys in terms of what they should be able to accomplish. I'll take the healthier of the two in Stevenson,

but a similar range. Dave said it best. What does Antonio Gibson do to impact what Stevenson, but a similar range. You know, I mean, Dave said it best, you know, what does Antonio Gibson do to impact what Stevenson, I think, does best for fantasy managers, which is catching the football. And, you know, it's a shame because he did get off to a slow start last year, but he was really starting to get going before he got hurt. And clearly that team was terrible. And you saw that they still continued to throw the ball to their running backs with, or running back with Ezekiel Elliott, what he accomplished down the stretch.

It's still a very bad receiving core, you know, and, and there's, there's, there's a lot of youth and hopefully, you know, whether it's Polk or Baker or, you know, Kendrick Bourne comes back healthy. Another guy that we never even mentioned is still on the roster in Juju. You know, we'll see what, what these guys have to offer, but I still think young quarterback will probably still lean on both of his running backs out of the backfield. So I think that'll still save Stevenson and hopefully just this team by nature comparatively to how bad it was last year is just better this year. And there's a couple more touchdown opportunities. So I think Stevenson's a fine flex. If you do go hero RB or zero RB, he can still get you off to a decent start as your second running back or even your first, if that's the route you go. Um, but yeah,

I think just expectations need to be reset last year. He was probably getting overdrafted this year. I think he'll be drafted hopefully appropriately. I think if you're taking him as the 20th running back, you're making a mistake 23 to 28 in that range. I think that's where he belongs. Yeah, this was, this is one where i hadn't even thought about romandre stevenson this year i don't think so i moved him down a little bit when we started having this discussion but he's he's around i'm probably on the high end of that 23 to 28 i think he'll be a low end number two running back for me and then we'll see i the patriots are a complete mystery box i mean they're going to be terrible. But in terms of what their offense is going to look like,

how many running back targets there are going to be, what percentage of those are going to Stevenson or Antonio Gibson, absolutely no idea. It's all complete speculation. Would you care to know what percentage of Jacoby Brissett's career throws have gone to running backs? Or does that not matter? Yeah, well well I can tell you that in in most recently in weeks 1 through 12 of the 2022 season when he was the quarterback for Cleveland they were 24th in running back target rate and also I think he

would probably agree with this rookie quarterbacks don't throw to running backs all that much typically right i think i think bo nicks yes bo nicks will break that trend but um yeah other than that yeah i think either rule uh that was something that we thought bryce young could do more of and maybe bryce young does more of sorry for the non sequitur on that one but it was just something that we saw young doing college i don't know how much throwing to the running back Drake May did. I'll double check. I think he had one guy that he threw to a decent amount, but it wasn't a lot. Brissette was at 18% over his career, which tight ends have really done well with Brissette.

I view Drake May as someone who's more of a downfield thrower. When things break down, he's not going to check to the running back. I think both these quarterbacks are not great for Ramondre. But it's also what they have to work with, which is not much. Gibson and Stevenson may be their two best options. I'm not ready to say that

it's a terrible receiving core. It's certainly an unproven receiving core when you think about the rookies. One of those two between Jalen Polk and Javon Baker have to step up. I'm not even sure if Juju Polk and Javon Baker, have to step up. I'm not even sure if Juju makes the team. Like, that's how bad he was last year. I'm ready to say it's a terrible receiving core.

It's a terrible receiving core. It's unproven for sure. Well, my question about Stevenson, by the way, was RB26, a round seven pick in the draft we did last week, half PPR. How many catches do you think Stevenson needs to have for him to be a must-start guy? A guy that you basically just put in your lineup,

set it and forget it. Three a game. 50, three a game, which would be 51. I'm more than that. He needs like four a game. That would be 51. I'm more than that. He needs like four a game. That's a lot. Okay. And I think, you know, again,

I'm going to touch on C scoring. If we're talking about their offense being at best, I'm being polite by calling them unproven. You guys are saying that they're the worst. And I mean, let's face it. They're not great. He had eight and 12 healthy games in probably a worse offense last year. He had eight.

He had four rushing, four receiving, right? Yeah. If that's what he had. No. It's the rushing touchdown number that makes me. No, he didn't have any receiving. So he had four touchdowns last year in 12 games. Let me just double check.

And the offense is not that much better than 12. The offensive line is definitely not much better. That's weird. No, he did not have any receivers. I think you're right. I don't know why. Thomas, okay. I bet.

He has one receiving touchdown in his career, which is kind of weird for 100 and 50 catches. But if he had four, you'd probably figure if he finished the season, he's maybe getting six. Maybe. No. So, I don't know.

50 catches, six touchdowns, and he's going to get probably, I would think, close to catches, six touchdowns, and he's going to get probably, I would think, close to 1,000 total yards. Yeah, I would hope for more touchdowns than that for 17 games. If he only scores six touchdowns, then he's going to be pretty frustrating. But, you know, look. Again, that's what you're drafting.

And I'll go back to how I framed it. If you have the draft in front of you, Adam, I'm pretty sure Jacob Gibbs drafted him. Yeah, he did. That was his second running back behind Jonathan Brooks, and he went heavy receiver. Well, I'll tell you the running backs that went around Ramondre Stevenson. You had Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Ramondre Stevenson,

and then Austin Eckler, James Conner. That's the range. Yeah. Give Jacobs a build. This is the type of running back you're looking for. Why take Stevenson over James Conner? Age? I would take Conner.

For sure. Okay. But give Jacobs a build. This is, I think, what you're looking for. Okay. Well, I need a second for that. Jacob went with A.J. Brown, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Ayuk, Jalen Hurts, Malik Neighbors,

Jonathan Brooks, Ramondre Stevenson. See, that's the type of player that fits this mold. Why does he fit that mold? Why is he a guy to go for if you have a zero RB strategy as opposed to... Well, because he's still going to be the lead as you know as opposed well because he's still going to be the lead running back on a team and he's still going to catch passes and so half ppr full ppr this is the type of guy you want now you could debate the other guys around him that's fair but

you know in terms of what you're doing in going this type of build he still has the potential to be a 60 catch guy and maybe score eight touchdowns and maybe get 1200 total yards. All right. So philosophy question here. Is there a, if you go zero RB, is there a certain profile of a running back that you are looking for? Yes.

One with a pulse. Well, I mean, do you take a guy like Ramondre Stevenson ahead of a guy like Tony Pollard? They went back to back. If you went zero RB, because you feel like he's got a more secure role or something like that. I want a mixture of floor and ceiling.

So a guy like Stevenson would be part of it. And then I want more upside. And look, if they hadn't brought in Gibson and if they had improved the offensive line and maybe you had like the decency to add one capable receiver to this offense, I think we'd be singing a different tune with Stevenson because he's capable. and maybe had the decency to add one capable receiver to this offense, I think we'd be singing a different tune with Stevenson.

Because he's capable. We know that he's good at his job and certainly good at catching the ball out of the backfield. We know he can bruise for touchdowns in short yardage. It's just not a great situation. To be fair, his 2022 campaign was very good in a crappy situation. Yeah. He caught 69 passes that year, I believe. And look, Zeke had, Zeke had two rushing touchdowns while Ramondre was healthy. So it's not like he was stealing a ton, but I remember, I think he was stealing some work

there near the goal line. Gibson's probably not going to do that. Gibson's probably going to work on third down. Stevenson is not necessarily needed third down catches. He's gotten so many first and second down catches, more so in 2022 than 2023. I think about 24% of his catches last year came on third down, about 17% of his catches in 2022 came on third down. So that was the thing. He just, he was on a team, like I said,

they were third and eighth in running back target rate over the last two seasons. I think that could be much lower this year. And that's a huge concern. He was on a team, like I said, they were third and eighth in running back target rate over the last two seasons. I think that could be much lower this year, and that's a huge concern for Andre Stevenson. But that said, I still think 50 catches is realistic. I don't think 69 catches is realistic. I don't know how you guys feel about that, but, you know, 50 could get... But, you know, that's what's working against him.

If he's healthy, he'll get 50 catches. What's working against him is, is that he was in a great situation to catch passes the last couple of years, and it may not be as good this year. Uh, all right. I think Jamie said, you want to talk about Juju Smith Schuster?

Somebody would. Oh yeah, sure. Let's spend 10 minutes. All right. Those are five players that we don't talk about enough. And, uh,

I like taking deep dives on, on players. It's, uh, it's fun. It's fun to kind of dig in and see where we come out. The first one drafted in this group would be Camara and then Metcalf

and then McLaurin and then Stevenson or Addison? Stevenson. Does Stevenson go ahead of? Stevenson. Stevenson. Does Stevenson go ahead of McLaurin for you guys or no? No. No, but again, that probably comes down to build.

Okay. Had a terrible softball night on Monday. Just thought you guys should know. What happened? Played a doubleheader. I drew a walk, but that was my only time on base. It just wasn't a good night.

Did you swing and miss? No, I did not swing and miss. Did you take a strike? I don't know if I took a strike, but if I did, it was because I was ahead in the count. Yes, I think I was ahead 3-0 in the count, and I had runners on the corners with two outs. Took a strike, and then I think in the next pitch,

I grounded out to end the inning, which was a big momentum killer. I was upset about it. But I'm coaching third base for one of the like the second inning, first inning, whatever. And the third baseman looks at me. There's like a double take. He goes, hey, what do you got for team name Tuesday? It was awesome. Three of the guys on the other team actually listened to our show.

That was really cool. Nice. Shout out to those guys. Drawing a walk in softball is not worth noting. That is true, Matt. But, you know, I got on base. What was their team name? What was their team name?

I think I could look that up. I think we played the Stallions first. I don't remember. I'm sorry. Did you win any of the games? No, we did not. But we lost by less than 15, which is good. We're getting better.

We lost our first player, too. So if you're the worst player on the worst team in the league, does that make you the worst player in the league? Yeah, I think so. Uh, I've played, I feel like I've seen a few players from other teams that I am better than.

I bet they would say the same thing about you. Probably. I'm definitely one of the worst. What's that? Where are you playing in the field? Usually right. But I actually, I'm going to tell you this.

If I took like 30 minutes of outfield practice, I actually think I'd be a good outfielder. Have you caught a fly ball yet? Yes. Yes. Okay.

There you go. That's good. Yeah, thank you. All right. We're out of here, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow with another episode of Fantasy Football.

See ya.