Fantasy Football Today - Players We're Worried About Being Wrong About (07/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 1, 2022

We may be a little low on Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson and a few others, but we're also concerned that we could be missing the boat. Who are the players that we are worried about being wrong about? We start with Davante Adams (2:30) for Jamey and Javonte Williams (6:00) for Dan. Plus your news and notes (13:40) as we talk about the Falcons quarterback situation ... Dan doesn't want to be wrong about Travis Etienne (19:40) and Josh Jacobs (22:15). What if these guys have huge years!? Jamey isn't very high on Elijah Mitchell (25:30), but that could backfire. At quarterback, nobody wants to draft Aaron Rodgers at his cost (28:30), but of course he might just be the best QB in the NFL. And Dan isn't high on Tua Tagovailoa (32:00) but sees some potential for a big season ... Wide receivers on this list include both Dolphins WRs (37:40), Diontae Johnson (40:55) and Deebo Samuel (44:00). Also, which team has the worst offense in the NFL (48:30)? ... Your Apple Podcast questions (52:10)! And email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance.

Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Players we are worried about being wrong about. Maybe we're avoiding Devo Samuel, but hey, what if he has another superstar season? Maybe we are a little bit too high on Travis Etienne, something like that. Quite frankly, I don't know if Dan thinks he's too high or too low on Travis Ziti, and I just threw that one out there. We'll see if it sticks. Welcome to the show.

It is Friday. A happy Friday to all of you getting into a holiday weekend. Happy early 4th of July. I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Dan Schneier today, and we have a mailbag coming up for you on YouTube on Friday. You'll hear it on Monday here in this podcast feed, and I plan on watching The Patriot if it is on on Friday. You'll hear it on Monday here in this podcast feed. And I plan on watching The Patriot if it is on, on Monday. Jamie, do you think Dan Schneier's ever seen The Patriot?

Yes. I think no. I have. Oh. I have. All right. I'm not a good movie guy, but I have seen that. Have you guys seen Top Gun yet?

No, I want to. I haven't seen it yet. I'm not good at movies. I just took my 10-year-old. It was great. It was? Yeah. Everyone says that. Although the dogfight football scene is very interesting.

That's real, isn't it? They play football with two footballs. Okay. So they basically, it was like an homage to the volleyball scene? Oh, I mean, it's to a T, yes. Almost exactly. But somebody told me about this prior to the movie, that they used two footballs in the football scene.

I was like, how does that work? And then they explained it, that they're trying to teach dogfighting, you know, like airplane dogfight, by offensive-defense playing at the same time. Adam, do you think I've ever seen Top Gun 1, the original? No, and you're better for it. I have not. What?

I don't want to get into this again. I say this every other week. It's a terrible movie. If you didn't grow up watching and liking Top Gun and you watch it now, it's really bad. Let Schneier be the judge. I don't want to get into it. I forgot about that one.

There's no chance I'm ever watching that. Good for you. All right, well, who is the top player, your headliner? You both gave me five players that you're worried about being wrong about. Who's your headliner, Jamie? Devontae Adams. I don't think I'm going to draft Devontae Adams, especially if he's going in the first round.

If he falls to the back end of the second round, I will draft him. I should say that. But he's typically going in the first 15 overall picks and I'm just a little bit nervous with his move to the Raiders. I don't know if you want me to defend that now or not. Yeah, go for it.

And he is going in the first round. He's going 11th overall, Devontae Adams. I'm looking at... Today I'm going to use Fantasy Pros ADP. We'll bounce between NFC and Fantasy Pros, but I'll use fantasy pros, PPR, ADP Devante Adams is 11th overall wide receiver for going just ahead of Stefan digs,

basically the same ADP ahead of Joe Mixon, ahead of Deandre Swift, ahead of Travis Kelsey. So, uh, that's going to be too rich for your blood, but, uh,

what is it specifically that worries you about Devante Adams that early? I think he's still going to be a top 10 receiver, and I have him ranked sixth. So it's not like I'm completely out on him. It's just where I have to take him to get him, and I'm just not going to get him, as you mentioned. It's the target share. I just don't see him getting the same target share

with a quarterback downgrade. While I still like Derek Carr, he's not Aaron Rodgers. And so the hope would be, which I could see happening, is that there'll be more pass volume for the Raiders than there's been for the Packers. And he still gets the target share in terms of percentage of targets that he's been used to getting, but he has so dominated targets for the Packers. It's ridiculous how much of a difference it is. And there's a talent upgrade around him, but you look at the last four seasons and what he's done.

So this is a guy that's averaged 10.5 targets per game over the past four seasons. The guys that he's been competing with for targets, second in targets on the Packers the last three seasons was Aaron Jones. It was 104 more targets for Adams last year, 86 more targets for Adams in 2020, and 59 more targets in 2018. He had 80 more targets than Jimmy Graham in 2018. He's been so significantly ahead of the second person in targets on the Packers. Now, could he still be that much ahead of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfro?

Maybe. But I doubt it. Right. And so I think when you're just looking at it, I think Waller was around eight something targets per game last year. Renfro was around seven targets per game. You just look at what those two guys should do. And you look at Adams.

I think he had a 17.7 PPR point per game finish in the last five or six seasons. Was one of his down years. I think he could do that. Still made him a top 10 wide receiver. So he's still going to be very good. This is not a completely get-out-way from Devontae Adams scenario. It's just where you have to draft him. I think they're a bit like I like Stephon Diggs better.

I like CeeDee Lamb better. Those two receivers, I think they're going to be better than Devontae Adams this year. Yeah. If you want just raw numbers, you mentioned Aaron Jones being the number two in targets each of the last three years. The number two guy on the Packers has not reached 70 targets in each of the last three years. Sorry, three years. So 68, 63, 65 targets, number two on the Packers.

Darren Waller has been on pace for 124, 154, and 144 targets in his last three seasons. That's per 17 games. Hunter Renfro has been on pace for 93, 82, and 128 targets in those seasons. That's per 17 games. Hunter Renfro has been on pace for 93, 82, and 128 targets in those seasons. I should obviously mention what I said about the Packers, the number two guy being less than 70 targets each of the last three years. Obviously, two of those years were 16 games. So if I want to bump it up to 75, whatever it is, it's just a huge discrepancy. All right. So, Dan, how about you? Who's your headliner on the players you're worried about being wrong about list by far and away it's Javante Williams. And I haven't decided

yet what I want to do here because I have went away both sides of this case, because we'll start with the first side, which is a player going that high overall with such a unknown volume and potentially in a situation where he doesn't have anywhere close to a full workload. The only players in his range that are comparable are Aaron Jones, who we already know has a history of getting heavily targeted when Devontae Adams isn't in game. So you got that upside with the receptions. And Nick Chubb, who I'm staying away from this year,

especially with the Watson situation. Other than that, you're paying top dollar for someone who doesn't have some of these receivers' heavy target share or some of these workloads at some of these other backs in that range are going. So that scares me. He also is now playing in a system when Nathaniel Hackett has head coach, a coach who's leaned on two running backs in the past and with green Bay learned that. So those things worry me. And then you get to the flip side of this argument, which is Javante Williams was by far and away. My RB one from last year's class. I had him leaps and bounds ahead of ETN.

He's better at creating yards after contact, and he's better at forcing missed tackles. He's an explosive runner who Dave actually profiled. My favorite thing we get to do for CBS Sports is when me and Dave do the draft profiles for the NFL draft, our fantasy profiles, because we get to watch the tape on these guys. And Dave put me on to him, and I was watching Javante last year, and I was like, this dude is for real. So you got the talent. You also have the situation where while the, on the one side, the Hackett offense is bad because it may be a two back offense on the other side.

It's a really good system fit for Javante Williams, a skillset because they're going to move toward a system that is under center. A lot. It's not a shotgun heavy system. It's based on the play action passes based on the wide zone run scheme. And all of those things are good for Javante Williams. So you got that working for him. Also one injury to Melvin Gordon, and he now becomes maybe the best running back in fantasy.

Watch what you say about Gordon. Yeah, I got to watch what I say about Gordon. Because me and Jamie are actually working on a dynasty trade right now that we might actually continue to work on midair. So I don't want to downgrade Gordon as I'm trying to trade him. But look, I'm a Wisconsin fan, so I love Gordon. But the upside to Javante, it's such a Jekyll and Hyde case for me because I think he can be RB one if he does get the workload, but you're drafting him at a cost where he already has the workload. So for me, I feel like this is the best, this is the best

case of someone who I could be really wrong on. Cause I'm probably not going to draft him. I just don't spend that kind of draft capital on non-target hogs and non-work horses. So I can't see myself drafting him, but I can easily see him rising to RB1. So that's Javante Williams, who's going 18th overall. He's RB11 in Fantasy Pro's PPR ADP. He's going ahead of Aaron Jones and basically the same ADP as Nick Chubb, appropriately. That's who Dan mentioned in terms of workload. Give me your thoughts on this. So last year, the two Broncos running backs combined for 477 touches. There are obviously more running back touches than that,

but the main two guys, Gordon and Williams, 477 touches, and I think only one game missed in that stretch, one game by Melvin Gordon. Javante had 51.6% of those touches. Now, well, I think we got a report that he'll have an increased role. So let's give him 60%. If he gets 60% of 477 touches, it's just hypothetical. I'm not expecting to have the same amount of running back touches. That would put him at 286 touches per 17 games. Austin Eckler was RB2 last year with 276 touches.

James Conner was RB5 with 239 touches. Leonard Fournette was RB6 with 249 touches. That's well below the 286. Now, on a per game, it's a little bit different because Conner missed some time. Fournette missed three games. But here's one other thing. touches. That's well below the 286. Now, on a per game, it's a little bit different because Conor missed some time. Fournette missed three games. But here's one other thing. Leonard Fournette averaged 17.8 touches per game and finished as RB4 on a per game basis. The number I gave you about Javante, if he got 60% of the workload from last year, would be

16.8 touches per game, one touch fewer per game than Fournette had when Fournette was RB4. Gave me a little bit of hope just to see three running backs finish in the top six overall with 276 or fewer touches last year, which is something I think Javante can get to

because he had 246 last year. So what's your take on that, Dan? Can I throw a little cold water on that, Adam? So we know, we've known now just through doing fantasy now for this long, that touches are not all equal, right? Carries are not the same as receptions. They're worth way more. Those targets in the passing game are worth way more. And I haven't seen yet that he's going to have a huge role in the passing game. And I think that's more speculation. He could,

I think he can do it. He's shown the ability to do it both last year and at UNC, but a lot of the people you brought up like for net, he's getting a lot of his value through the receptions last year and through the targets and the passing game. So you have that. And then the other thing is you had a Broncos offense that was way run heavy and run first last year with Vic Fangio as head coach. I don't think that's going to continue now that Russell Wilson's on the roster.

So those two things are what scares me the most about just equal equating the touches one for one. And then kind of the, the way this this direction direction this offense is moving in. The thing the thing with players like Javante and we're all guilty of this. I know I certainly am is is we're romanticizing the most optimistic view of him reaching his ceiling. You know, we're thinking about him 60 percent of the touches, if not more. We're thinking about what happens if there's a Melvin Gordon injury because we saw the Week 13 game against the Chiefs.

The realistic thing about Javante Williams is this offense will be better. It's a better quarterback. It's a more, I would hope, aggressive play caller, a more modern play caller in what Nathaniel Hackett's system will bring. The push and pull, I think, with Javante in the passing game is Nathaniel Hackett's history has shown that he will throw to his running backs. Russell Wilson's history has not. And so, you know, where is all this going to fall? I think if you're drafting Javante in the second round, I'm probably out on him as well. And this is, you know, it, it, it And this is, you know, Adams is kind of semantics

and Williams is kind of semantics because it's where you have to draft these guys. I'll take him in the early third in terms of Javante with the chance of him reaching his ceiling, but I won't take him at the end of the second. It's kind of one of those weird things. Certainly I won't take him in 18. But it's also, like you said, Adam, who you have to take him ahead of.

Aaron Jones is a no-brainer. You should be taking Aaron jones ahead of javante williams but it's you know nick chubb versus javante williams i think is fair in ppr and the one that i struggle with is james connor versus javante williams because connor's role in the passing game should be significant compared to javante but you're also talking about a 27 year old running back who has an injury history and that's what scares me a little bit about James Conner. So that's really where it comes down for me. But you know,

I think it's one of those things where he's one of these guys, we fall victim to this as fantasy analysts. We fall victim to it as, as fantasy drafters. You just see the optimistic side more times than the downside of it. And, and there's a lot to love about Javante Williams, but I don't think we're necessarily baking in so much.

Certainly the ADP about what the failures can be. Melvin Gordon going to 100th overall. That might be your play. If you want a piece of that backfield, I did not. I don't know if I mentioned it on the audio version. I think I did in the YouTube intro, but we will be reading Apple podcast questions later on in today's show.

If for your emails, however, we are going to have a mailbag recording on Friday. It's going to be our 4th of July episode. Jamie, I have to take this phone call, important phone call. Please do the news and notes starting with Marcus Mariota

ahead of Desmond Ritter. Thank you. Sure, let me go find it. I think when you look at this quarterback situation for Atlanta, there's a report from ESPN, Michael Rothstein, who covers the Falcons for ESPN, that Mariota is significantly ahead of Desmond Ritter.

I don't know if that's a big surprise at this point, knowing that Mariota is a veteran, has been with Arthur Smith before when the two were in Tennessee. Your expectations for the Falcons quarterback situation and then what it means for Kyle Pitts and Drake London is what? I think it, I think Mariota will be the starter of the season. And I think there is sneaky upside to him in fantasy and two QB leagues as your QB three because of his rushing ability. But as far as what does it mean for Kyle Pitts and Drake London, that's where I'm a little bit less enthused.

While I think Mariota can pick up some points, especially with his legs, I think it's going to be tough to keep that passing game on schedule with Mariota as the quarterback. And even though he's worked with Arthur Smith in the past, it was a different style. Offense was a run heavy offense, and they don't really have that in place at all in Atlanta.

They don't have the offensive line for it, and they don't have the running backs for it either. So I just feel like this passing game is going to be off schedule. The entire offense is going to be off schedule. And so I am, it does, you know, Kyle Pitts, the player who I loved last year, I want it to be early on this year. I haven't found myself drafting him at all because of the quarterback situation and same goes for Drake London. Sorry, folks. Sorry about that. I am back. Uh, the schedule for the Falcons is very interesting because they start off with New Orleans and the Rams. We probably assume that there's back-to-back losses there.

It's going to be ugly. But then they get Seattle and Cleveland, especially if Cleveland doesn't have Deshaun Watson. I can see them potentially winning those two games, just knowing what the quarterbacks that they're facing there. I don't know if they will, but they could. And so they get to 2-2, and Mariota probably is still the starter through there, but clearly if they're worse than that.

But then they go at Tampa Bay, San Francisco, at Cincinnati. And then they get Carolina in week eight. It feels like Carolina week eight is probably the landing spot for Desmond Ritter, unless Mariota is just completely awful or obviously playing well and they're winning games. But that seems like a logical destination for him. Seven games in, if they're two and five at that point, if not worse, then maybe you turn things over to the rookie the one thing i will say about that is i think they're going to be more aggressive than typical for teams turning over to rookie

quarterbacks just because they're going to likely have another high draft pick next year and they're going to want to know if look what they saw in ritter because they obviously like ritter what they saw is something long term or if it's just something they have to move on from and uses their qb2 so i actually think you're right i don't think Mariota is going to play a full season. Just the more I think about that, they got to give Ritter a look. Yeah. And one thing though about that schedule also, a lot of passing, they're going to be trailing. So that could help London and, uh, and pits. Hey, Deshaun Watson decision, unlikely to come before the week of July 11th, according to the Washington post JK Dobbins, unlikely to play before the week of July 11th, according to the Washington Post.

J.K. Dobbins unlikely to play in the preseason, according to The Athletic. He's still recovering from a torn ACL. I think there was other damage as well in that knee. And Buffalo remains, this is according to Joe Biscaglia of The Athletic, Buffalo remains firmly behind Devin Singletary as an important piece to the puzzle. And he expects, Joe Biscaglia expects Singletary to remain the lead back for now. James Cook will have a role, including some early downs role for James Cook

to keep Devin Singletary fresh. But Singletary, his ADP, his average draft position is 78th. He's RB30. Jamie, do you like that value? He goes just ahead of Cordaro Patterson. He's in between Kareem Hunt and Cordaro Patterson. It's hard not to like that value, just given what this offense is going to be.

You know that they're going to score points. And so, look, he was great at the end of the season last year. We have to see what his lack and loss in the passing game is going to end up with James Cook on the roster. It's not really so much about Singletary being the lead back. It's just a matter of how much he's going to lose to James Cook. So, you know, the more he falls, the better off he is. Um, you know, when he was going in round five in our early drafts, you know, following the

end of the season, when it looked like he was going to be this potential riser, you know, based on end of the season, when it looked like he was going to be this potential riser, you know, based on how they finished things. But clearly they, they, they've told you JD McKissick failed signing James Cook. They want somebody who can catch the ball in that position and they don't feel, and even Duke Johnson, and they don't just don't feel like Devin Singletary for whatever it's worth

can get that done to the capacity that they like. Yeah. I'm the opposite on that, obviously, as you know, Adam. Yes, I do. But he, I think. I'm the opposite on that, obviously, as you know, Adam. Yes, I do. But he, I think... I love these reports. They're only going to push him up the draft board. Yeah, that's the shame of it.

If he goes higher, it's not worth it. He was either first, second, or third in routes run among running backs last year, which is actually more of a James Cook stat. Even though you don't see a lot of catches by running backs in the offense, you did see a lot of routes. So there's a lot of opportunity there for a running back to come in and have

that role. And we're going to take a break here. When we come back more players that were worried about being wrong about, plus your Apple podcast questions. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business

with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. Dan started with Javante Williams,

who's going 18th overall. And we just wish it were a little bit later. Getting to round three, Javante Williams. But Travis Etienne, 48th overall. All right, where do you, and what's interesting is that Dave yesterday on the Do Not Draft episode,

said the same thing. Javante Williams and Travis ETN were just going too early. ETN's ADP in NFC was something like 36th. It's 48th in NFC, 37th. It's 48th on Fantasy Pros. That's a full round

later. Tell me, right, tell me, what are your thoughts on ETN, Dan, and what are your concerns about being wrong here? Yeah, so my thoughts on ETN is I don't love the talent. Never loved him coming out of college. I feel like he's a one-cut runner.

Doesn't have a lot of ability to force missed tackles. Doesn't at all have much ability to create after contact at the NFL level. I could be wrong on that. That's just my opinion of him as a prospect.

I don't think if Urban Meyer wasn't there, he would have been a mid-to-late second-round pick in the NFL level. I could be wrong on that. That's just my opinion of him as a prospect. I don't think if the, if urban Meyer wasn't there, he would have been a mid to late second round pick in the NFL draft that best. So don't love the talent, the situation. Don't love it either. To be completely honest, Doug Peterson notorious for using multiple backs, notorious for rotating backs out around the goal line and in the red zone, in the scoring area. Also James Robinson, a little ahead of schedule, really good talent is going to be back at some point so all of those things are working against him why i feel like i could be way wrong on this are one it's really hard to evaluate nfl talent moving uh college talent moving to the nfl level i'm wrong all the time i'm going to be wrong moving forward at times so that's the one thing the second thing is he could easily just pay back his adp by being this incredible

dump down option for Trevor Lawrence and an offense that has bad offensive line play still for some odd reason did not take a tackle at number one overall, despite having a terrible offensive line. And so, and also the history of Trevor Lawrence throwing to Travis Etienne, I think he had 84 receptions over his last two seasons together, uh, there they had at Clemson. And so he can easily just destroy me and my opinion on not drafting him by being this insanely high reception guy,

insanely high targets guy. Because as I mentioned earlier in this podcast, receptions are worth so much more than carries in fantasy football, especially if you're playing full PPR, but even if you're just playing half PPR. So it's the reception total upside that scares me most.

And the idea that i could be wrong on him as a prospect okay uh so i think the you know the point of this list the we're worried about being wrong about is either they have huge upside or they have huge downside right you're not going to care too much about being wrong about a player who's just safe. Yeah. Do you both feel that Travis Etienne has huge upside? Yes. Yeah, I do, based on the receptions. Okay. Another running back for you is Josh Jacobs,

who's going 39th overall. He's RB20, just after Antonio Gibson and just before two tight ends, George Kittle and Darren Waller. After Pitts, but if you want that last shot, if you didn't get top three tight but if you want that last shot, if you didn't get top three tight end, you want a top five guy,

and you're deciding between Josh Jacobs and Kittle and Waller, you may not be able to have both because they have very similar ADPs. This surprises me because you are like mega anti-Josh Jacobs. It's like your team names are all, I hate Josh Jacobs. It's not true at all. So what are you worried about here? Because I don't know that I see a path to greatness for him unless there are some, some injuries in the backfield and he gets all the roles.

But what are you worried about here with Josh Jacobs? So Josh Jacobs, typically on my bus list, I've avoided him the past every year of his career. I'll be avoiding him most likely again this year. He's right in that RB dead zone where you just never get value in my opinion you're hitting a one out of ten it's really worse than even trying to chase a flush draw to the river something adam does typically when he used to play poker but one out of ten you want to look at all the dead zone running backs one out of ten gives you value you're probably looking at one we'll take a look i think you're probably looking at like one out of three no way are you

getting one returning value on one out of three? We'll talk about that after the pod. That's not even a chance, but Jacobs, why do I think I could be wrong on him? It's the same reason why James Connor was a hit last year in fantasy. There's a chance for this offense to completely take off this year. And there's a chance that he's going to be the primary back by far in this offense in the red zone. And even potentially on passing downs because behind him, they don't really have much.

Kenyon Drake might be okay coming back from injury. Samir White was a late round pick. There's no guarantee there. The rest of that depth chart, they brought in Brandon Bolden, an old Josh McDaniels favorite, but I'm not too worried about his competition there. So that scares me. Am I going to be wrong? Is he just going to have a huge workload on a really good offense that's in in the red zone a lot that runs the ball in red zone a lot. That's at least what Josh McDaniels did with Bill Belichick over in new England. And so that's the part that

scares me. You add on top of all that, that he's a former first round pick. I don't think he's shown the talent at the NFL level that he was projected to have coming out of Bama. But having said that again, I could be wrong on the talent. This could be the year for him. So potential for a really good offense, potential for a big role, potential for a big red zone role, and potential for, you know, just his talent to finally show out. Those are the reasons why I think I could be wrong on him. Jamie, who has the most catches among Raiders running backs this year?

Everybody's healthy? Yeah. Drake? They also have Amir Abdullah. I don't know if he'll make the team, but... Well, I mean, I think you see what they're doing with two guys. I don't know if it's going to be him or Bolden, but one of those guys is probably out.

Yeah. Those are two very good... Bolden is a special teams dynamo, right? I mean, I think Abdullah probably is. Abdullah's been a very good return guy. Yeah. Abdullah showed a lot last year in the receiving role, I thought, with Carolina. I think that's why they signed him.

I think they feel like they can get, especially with that system, with McDaniels there. And it's also Drake's got to be healthy and show. You know what I mean? He's coming off a pretty tough injury. Who would you guys rather have, ETN or Jacobs? ETN by far. We'll stay in this range, Jamie, and we'll go to your running back,

Elijah Mitchell. You have three wide receivers, well, really four wide receivers on your worried about being wrong about list, plus a quarterback and Elijah Mitchell, who's going just after Travis Etienne, just ahead of Brees Hall. 48th overall. RB23.

So where did I say Josh Jacobs was going? Sorry. Jacobs is going 39th. And then you have EtN at 48th, and you have Elijah Mitchell also 48th, back-to-back basically with ETN. What are you worried about with Elijah Mitchell? How do you feel about him, and what are your concerns? Well, I mean, if that's non-PPR, I'm okay with it.

But it's not. It's PPR. And this is another guy, you know, to the ones dan has mentioned uh probably not gonna have a role in the passing game as we saw last year uh missed six games due to multiple injuries they drafted another running back in san francisco who fits their scheme in tyrian davis price uh they are by some accounts uh mostly player accounts but by some accounts expecting a better trace sermon so we'll see what kind of role he has and so you have and Jeff Wilson's back and so you have another crowded backfield for a team that since Kyle Shanahan has been there since 2017 has had a different

leading rusher all five seasons with Mitchell being that guy last year it was Wilson it was Matt Breida it It was Carlos High. I mean, they turn over guys year after year after year. The system is amazing. If Elijah Mitchell can play the majority of the season, I am going to be wrong because the system will produce a very good running back. But we have a five-year track record

of the lead running back going in, not being the lead running back going out. You have the lack of role in the passing game. And for the first time, at least for significant stretches, because some of the backups have run, you have a running quarterback. Plus, if Debo Samuel stays in his same role, which he does not want to do very clearly based on his, I think, wanting to get out. But if he stays in his role as a guy in the backfield, there's just more carries going to other places with Trey Lance and with Debo Samuel taking away from whoever the running back may be.

So I'm not drafting Mitchell in that range in PPR. And if he's still banged up, which he is right now heading into training camp, I think we're gonna see him fall. So it's just a matter of, does he stay healthy? Does he stay the lead guy? That's what would make me look,

look bad on this one. Yeah. Elijah Mitchell. This really kind of blows my mind. He had five games last year. He only played 11 games. He had five games with 21 or more carries. That is more than Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson have combined for in their career. Wilson has four, Mostert has zero.

He also, Elijah Mitchell, had four more games with 17 or more carries. That is 17 or more carries in nine games last year out of 11. That's just not something you would have expected to hear about a 49ers running back. But yeah, there were a few games

where he had five catches, five, six targets, but yeah, a lot of zero catch games as well. All right, let's get our quarterbacks. How about we do our quarterbacks here? For Jamie, it's Aaron Rodgers at QB9. And for Dan, it's Tua Tungvaloa at QB17. Jamie, what are you worried about with Aaron Rodgers,

who I think you're going to be just furious. He's going ahead of Russell Wilson and Tom Brady at QB9. Yikes. Yeah, I never said that Rodgers is a guy I wouldn't draft. This is never something that I've done. Um, I've been burned by this a couple of times now, uh, you know, saying to stay away from, from Rogers, but you take away Devante Adams and, you know, aside from maybe the Ravens, this could be the worst receiving core in the NFL. Um, you know, we're asking a lot of Alan Lazard, you know, who's, as, as Rogers said, has been our garbage guy. You know, you're asking a lot of Christian Watson, you know, who's, you know, coming from a non-FBS school. You're asking a lot of Randall Cobb at 105 years old, you know, Amari Rogers, Sammy Watkins and the corpse of whatever

he has left and Romeo Dubs. It's just not a very inspiring receiving core, and you have Robert Tunyon coming off of a significant knee injury. And I like a lot of these guys, excuse me, based on their value, but Rodgers just feels like there's going to be a little bit left on the table at this point. They're going to probably run the ball a little bit more, which says a lot because they have been very balanced. But you take away Devontae Adams, and I know the small sample size, the seven games that he's played without Adams have been fantastic.

But can he do that over the course of a full season? I just don't know. At his age, at some point, there's going to be a little bit of a drop-off. I don't think he becomes Matt Ryan. That's not to say that. I still think he could be a number one fantasy quarterback. But you mentioned it, Russell Wilson. I would much rather have Russell Wilson.

I'm sure he's going ahead of Jalen Hurts still at this point. I'd rather have Jalen Hurts. Matthew Stafford, I'd rather have him. I'd rather have Cousins. I'd rather have Derek Carr. And if Trey Lance is entrenched as the starter and Jimmy Garoppolo's gone, I'd rather have Trey Lance as well. So Rodgers is closer to 15 than he is to 10, and he's not someone that I'm going to target as a starter. I will settle for him as a starter, but I'm not going to target him. And in most cases, I won't get him. Do you think he has top five upside Aaron Rodgers? Not without Devante Adams, no.

So then I don't think you should be too worried about being wrong, right? Because how badly could he burn you? He still could be top five. I don't think he's going to have him. He's been the best quarterback in football the last two years. I know, it's amazing. Okay, Dan. What are you laughing at?

I've been laughing at something that was said on our podcast two years ago about Aaron Rodgers. I'm going to bring it up at a later date. It's not the time. Tua Tungavailoa, who is QB 17 in average draft position right now. You can't do that right now. We said, so that was after his bad year, before his back-to-back mvps we said i don't remember how many of us felt this way but i do think it was a consensus on the podcast that if you already

had your qb1 that it made more sense to draft daniel jones for his upside than aaron rogers rogers won the mvp that year and was QB2 or something like that. And Daniel Jones was exciting. I mean, he looked good that three years ago was his rookie year, right? Yeah, Tampa Bay game. Yep. He had a few big games. He ran the ball.

I could see people saying it's almost like the Trey Lance thing. Right. And I, you know, I totally get it. Taking Trey Lance over Aaron Rodgers. But the circumstances are so different now without Devante Adams. I get it. You worry that Tua is actually going to be good? Like really good?

So my biggest concern with Tua is it's a prospect I was never a fan of. I never understood why he was a top five pick in the NFL. He has to basically heave his entire body into every throw he makes does not have natural arm talent. In my opinion, it's truly look at him in Alabama and look at him in the NFL last year. I don't buy into any of the stats on adjusting completion rate or anything because it was in a gimmick offense. It was RP. It was the most RPO heavy offense in NFL history. It was basically a college offense, just ripping slants based on the overhang defender. If he doesn't, if he commits to the run, you throw the slant. If he doesn't commit to the run, you run the ball. So I just don't buy any of the stats there. I don't like the talent, but at the same time, now he gets Mike McDaniel, who you've seen in San Francisco.

They can turn anyone into a productive quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is not a good quarterback. I think if he played anywhere in the NFL, he'd be viewed as worse than players like Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew. The list goes on. If you look at his film, he's really bad in a lot of ways. He's also found weird. They've also found that system, weird spot starts out of guys like CJ Beathard and Nick Mullins. They didn't last, but they had decent spot starts. So there's a chance that Tua can come into the system and just be that guy, be Jimmy Garoppolo. I think he has, if not more, as much, if not more talent than Jimmy Garoppolo. I actually like him better than as a prospect than Jimmy Garoppolo. And then you also give him Tyree Killen, Jalen Waddle, which is amazing.

And you also give him Taron Armstead, who if healthy is one of the best offensive tackle, left tackles in the NFL. And there is a case to be made that he has enough around him that he can, and a great system that's quarterback friendly that he can be a good fantasy option and and that's what scares me because i'm probably not drafting him because i like a lot of other quarterbacks especially in that range but i can see the case where he does end up being a really good fantasy option when you look to draft like the second quarterback you know if you're in that you know in a one quarterback league but certainly in the super flexor two quarterback league you know if if you're in that, you know, in a one quarterback league, but certainly in the, in the super flex or two quarterback league, you know,

if you are inclined to take that guy with upside. So, you know, Trey lands clearly still qualifies based on what we hope he's going to become, but it's more, I think the group of Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields and even Jameis Winston to, you know, if you want to put car cousins in this group also, I think they're ahead of them, but it's more of those second guys with upside. And, you know, Tua's the one that's always, you know,

kind of sticks out because everything you said, Dan, it's just one of those situations where you could see it's almost like he has the same setup that he had at Alabama. You know, he has just better talent than everybody else. It's not the same, but it's, you know, just better. You know, I mean, he's got more speed than anybody else. You know, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waller can burn. Maheem Mostert has been clocked as the fastest running back

for years over the last couple of seasons. Edmonds is a guy that can fly. Gusecki's certainly above average at the tight end position. There's a lot to love about it, but it's really all on him. Can he come through? I'm so nervous

about our two QB league and any super flex league. I really feel like when I look at your rankings, top 18 or 19 quarterbacks, I want two of them in any league where you can start two quarterbacks. Once you get past that, you're looking at guys like Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, more maybe like a Matt Ryan's not so bad in a two QB league. Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Jared golf. They're not terrible, but I'd rather them be my third.

But I think a big question is going to be that group. You mentioned car and cousins are much more proven and much safer, but fields the year two and in two, his case, your three guys fields, Lance Lawrence to a, it's easy to take them in a one QB league, And in Tua's case, your three guys. Fields, Lance, Lawrence, Tua. It's easy to take them in a one QB league. But how much do you trust them in a two QB league? You know, what if they bust? They could, right?

Or maybe, is Tua the safest in that group? No. Who's the safest? The running guy? The Russian guys? The Russian guys are the safest by far, in my opinion. Lance is one of the most... He's got to be one of the most

inexperienced quarterbacks. Barely played as a rookie, and he barely played in college. And he didn't play at high levels, you know, power five conference. So I love Trey Lance with the potential. I mean, we saw it in his limited time last year, but he could just be terrible.

Three appearances, 31 or more rushing yards in all three. You know, I think him and Fields probably feel the safest, you know, because of what they can give you with their legs or should give you with their legs. It's really more, I think, you know, it's, it's to a Lawrence and James for me, you know, those three are the ones because there is a path for all three of them. James, you've seen it and they've, you know, upgraded his receiving core. Um, but with Lawrence and, Lawrence and Tua, you know, prospects, obviously, you know, whether you like them or not, they clearly were, you know, looked at as, you know, high-level prospects.

And upgrades to whatever extent this offseason. Tua got the most, you know, but Lawrence got a couple. You know, I mean, you know, we can, you know, dissect Christian Kirk, Evan Ingram, and Zay Jones all we want to, but they're upgrades, you know, over what they had. And ETN back. And so, plus a coaching upgrade, you know dissect Christian Kirk Evan Ingram and Zay Jones all we want to but they're upgrades you know over what they had and ETN back and so plus a coaching upgrade you know so I think all three of those guys have the the path to being you know top 10 quarterbacks you know with with some injuries most likely but you know you could see them in the in the 4,000 yard range you know um you know four to four 4,500 yard passing range you can see them north of 30 touchdowns how many

interceptions on top of that, that remains to be seen, but they all should take step forwards from where they were a year ago. You know, Jameis being just healthy. Okay, let's talk about some more players that we are worried about being wrong about. And we move on to the wide receivers here.

Deontay Johnson for Dan. And we've got both Dolphins receivers and Debo Samuel for Jamie. Let we've got both Dolphins receivers and Deebo Samuel for Jamie. Let's go to the Dolphins guys. So Tyreek Hill is going 19th overall. He's wide receiver seven. Same ADP as CeeDee Lamb, just ahead of Mark Andrews.

I obviously know you like Lamb a lot better than Tyreek Hill. Jalen Waddell is wide receiver 13. He's all the way down at 40th overall, and he basically has the same ADP as Deontay Johnson, who is on Dan's list today. Those guys are going just ahead of DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin. But if we start with the Dolphins guys, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell,

I'm guessing you are not really drafting them. Hill going 19th, Waddell going 40th. But your concerns are kind of like what Dan was saying about Tua. Is that fair? Waddell is falling, so he's going to, I hope, settle in a range which will make me a little bit more comfortable because I still like both. I think both guys have immense upside. But again, it's the price you have to pay for these two guys.

So Tyreek Hill, for me, has fallen to the beginning of round three. He certainly can make a case based on PPR, heavy receivers, take him round two. I have no problem with that. But he's fallen to round three for me in terms of rankings. But you are talking about, look, I have no problem with that, but he's fallen to around three for me in terms of rankings. But you are talking about, look, however good to him might be,

however good this offense might be. I would take as most people would take the combination of Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes over Mike McDaniel to a tongue of my low, you know, so system and quarterback downgrade. And so how much of it is the chiefs? This was their most dangerous player. No offense to Travis Kelsey.

Tyreek Hill scared the bleep out of every defense that he played. And I know they got great compensation in return and they had to pay him a lot. But when you're a Super Bowl team and you move on from players like this, you got to be a little bit worried about why. And so for a guy that's relying on speed, and I know they're probably looking more so in 2023 and beyond as opposed to 2022, but at what point does he maybe lose a step? At what point does the talent not start to win out? And so then you factor in how much did Mahomes make Tyreek Hill? How much did Andy Reid make Tyreek Hill? Dan noted this. Mike

McDaniel's system, if it's the same system that Kyle Shanahan ran, they just get guys in space and yards after catch are going to be amazing for Tyreek Hill. So I still think he's going to be very good this year. But again, you're paying a price for a guy that may have just significant downgrades at two key spots, play caller and quarterback. And then just tying in Jalen Wall to him, you've got a receiver who set rookie records last year for catches 140 targets uh rapport with the quarterback from college who's two are going to lean on when times get tough you know is it going to be the the more experienced better player

or is it going to be the guy that he knows and trusts and so one of these guys i think is going to still be very very good if not potentially great in top five i can't see it for both of them i think they're just going to weigh each other down a little bit. So you're drafting both at a premium of where they've typically been. Obviously, Tyreek's falling a little bit, understandably so, because you're baking in the changes. But they're still being drafted, in my opinion, like he's got no Tyreek Hill around.

Well, Tyreek Hill, I think, is being drafted. I mean, 19th overall, that's not a huge discount from what he usually is. Well, I mean, he was a first-round pick. Yeah, but he was a late first-round pick in a PPR league, right? Because he wasn't a huge catch guy before last season. Still, all right, fine. Let's call it 10 picks.

That's not a huge downgrade, right? And would you take A.J. Brown or Tyreek Hill? I like A.J. Brown better, but I can certainly see the argument on the other side. Let's talk about Deontay Johnson. He was wide receiver 10 in full PPR on a per-game basis last year, and that was with the fifth most catches in football,

107 catches, and number 14 in non-PPR per game. Overall, he finished 10th in non-PPR, 8th in full PPR, but he was 10th per game, as I mentioned, in full PPR. So, Dan, he's on your list of players you're worried about being wrong about. I'm assuming you're like everyone else, not taking him where he's going.

Well, Dave, anyway. I think Heath is okay with him 40th overall. But, Dave, you have a very similar list to what Dave said yesterday on players on his do-not-draft list. I guess you're just a little bit more worried about being wrong about them. But am I right? You're not taking Deontay Johnson 40th overall. I will not be taking Deontay Johnson 40th overall. You're right. What are you worried about? Okay. So first let me give the case as to why it won't be taking Deontay Johnson or any Steeler this year. I will be,

it's highly unlikely. I'll end up with a single Steeler on any of my rosters. The more I look at it, I think that that offense will be an Epic disaster. I think no matter if Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky is at quarterback with that offensive line, which was not upgraded enough over the last three years, even though it was a little bit better last year with a quarterback, that's a veteran and can get them into the right checks and can get them into the right spots with blitz heavy calls. I saw Trubisky last year in a spot start for his Buffalo was not enthused. I know that pick, it's going to have a tough time adjusting to the NFL. In my opinion, it's my opinion at least.

So I think the offense, and then you factor in how difficult that schedule is and how rough that division is and the cold weather, everything to me screams one of the worst offense in the NFL. Now with all that said, and then you also look at the fact that look, Deontay Johnson's losing Ben Roethlisberger. We had incredible rapport with, and some people believe that was part of the reason he was such

a fantasy dynamo. So all those things are working against him while at the same time, I think that Deontay Johnson might be one of the best receivers in the NFL. It's a crazy thing to say out loud, but from a separation standpoint, his ability to create separation on a consistent basis, it's like him and two or three others left in the NFL. And that Antonio Brown is not in the NFL. And if you, if I listened to a really interesting video from Julian Edelman, uh, with Julian Edelman, a couple of days ago, we were talking with a few NFL, former NFL players. And he talked about why he'll always take these smaller guys who are good at creating separation, good at stop and start ability, the ability to cut at agility over the bigger receivers. Cause you can take some of the bigger receivers out of the NFL by just drafting big corners. We've seen it with players like Laquan Treadwell dating way

back. Mike Williams, the Cowboys version. I think the players like Deontay are kind of scheme independent and are kind of cornerback matchup independent and offense independent, but are they quarterback independent? And that's why I'm probably not going to draft him because I think the quarterback situation is still too bad. But what's different? You know, is it worse than last year? Yes. Yes. I think it's going to be way, way worse.

I know Roethlisberger is old. Everyone likes to joke about him, but he was still an incredible veteran. His mind. Nobody understands how still far ahead he was. And almost every quarterback in the NFL from a mental processing standpoint, he could get them into the right spots before the snap and he can adjust post snap. Trubisky hasn't seen anything after the snap. He's played games with Chicago where it was a very regimented offense where his processing was way down and Pickett's a rookie. I don't think he's going to be any kind of all-time processor. So I think, yes, it will be a big step back with

Rothsberger. I know everybody likes to joke on Roth, but I don't, I don't agree with it. All right. And finally, Debo Samuel saved one of the best for last year. He's going 17th overall, wide receiver six. He's basically going one spot ahead of Tyreek Hill. I know it, Jamie. I'm worried about it, too. You know what I'm mostly worried about is I think it's really easy to make

the case against Debo Samuel. If you look at his numbers after Brandon Ayuk got out of the doghouse and when George Kittle was healthy, it's not someone you're taking 17th overall. But what are the odds that Iyuk and Kittle and Samuel are all going to be healthy? There's going to be times that all he needs is one injury

because Kittle gets hurt a lot. I mean, maybe Iyuke struggles or gets hurt himself. You know, there's some scenario where he's just don't have to worry about that. Plus, he's obviously so good. They need to get the ball in his hands. But I'm worried about it, too, because he proved himself to be clearly one of the best receivers in football. But a lot going against Debo Samuel, Jamie, going 17th overall. Yeah. And again, this is very similar to I feel about all the other guys that I've mentioned, maybe aside from Elijah Mitchell, that it's just a matter of where you're taking

him and who you're taking him over. Because I think the thing that scares me the most, it's not necessarily what would happen if there's injuries, because you just take his receiving numbers alone, which I think would probably be pretty similar, even if you're factoring in a downgrade as a thrower for Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance because, as you mentioned, very inexperienced quarterback. And so Lance will run. Garoppolo will stand in the pocket a little bit more. So all those factors, you know, coming into play.

But just his numbers as a receiver make him a very good, incredible fantasy talent. You know, take away just his rushing numbers. And if you were to tell anybody, this is the receiver that you're getting. 77 catches, 1400 yards and six touchdowns. That's very good. That's almost worth taking in the second round, probably better as a third round pick, but clearly very good numbers. You're drafting Debo Samuel to be the same player that he was a year ago. So to produce as a receiver at that level, but still obviously have the rushing game factored into it. And he clearly is telling you, with everything that has happened this offseason,

he does not want to do the same thing because he doesn't want to take the hits before he gets paid. He wants to get paid like an elite-level wide receiver. He's going to get paid as a do-it-all threat because he's going to get probably staying in San Francisco. And so the more hits he takes, the more likely it is that he's going to probably face an injury at some point. And so that's part of it. And so if the rushing comes away, to whatever extent the rushing comes away, you're now drafting him as Trey Lance's guy.

It's very similar to Deontay Johnson. If you're concerned about a player getting a quarterback downgrade to whatever extent, this is not to say Trey Lance can't be very good because he could, but we're still taking an experienced quarterback to make sure that Debo Samuel is still this high level elite fantasy option just based on his receiving numbers alone. And so I don't think it's going to be just his receiving numbers. He's obviously going to carry the ball a little bit, but take some of those rushing numbers away, factor in Trey Lance's inexperience, drafting Debo at his ceiling, because this is kind of close to a ceiling based on how he finished last year. And then you factor in what if Kittle does stay healthy? What if I does stay healthy?

And so I think it's just a little bit concerning for me that Debo is not going to be the same type of player. Still very good, amazing, but just not at the same total production standpoint. And you just look at his games with Trey Lance last year in the two starts that Lance made, he averaged 15 and a half PPR points per game in those two games. Six catches, 121 yards and a touchdown in those two games. And then he did eight carries, 32 yards and a touchdown on top of it. And so you take away the rushing numbers, 15 and a half PPR points is fine with the rushing numbers. Take away the rushing numbers. He got 15 targets in those two games. So he's basically on par for where he was been, seven and a half targets per game. It could be a little bit concerning if you're just counting on rushing numbers. He got 15 targets in those two games, so he's basically on par for where he was been, 7.5 targets

per game. It could be a little bit concerning if you're just counting on him just to be a pass catcher with Trey Lance. 49ers the last three seasons, this is where they have ranked in passing yards. 13th, 12th, 12th. But that is including

sacks, so if it's just gross passing yards, it's just, you know, gross passing yards, it's, it's going to be a little bit different, but they've been basically middle of the pack in passing yards. Do you think if Trey Lance is their starter for 17 games, are they bottom five and passing yards?

I don't know if I go bottom five, but maybe bottom 10. We've talked a lot about offenses today, and Dan said Steelers could be one of the worst. That's how I feel about the Falcons. Who's the worst? What's the worst offense in football? I'm going to go with the Steelers.

I really am. Well, worst offense for fantasy or the worst actual offense in football? Because part of my Steelers, anti-Steelers offense is the schedule is insanely tough, and they play an incredibly tough division from a defense standpoint. All three of those defenses. I think they say probably the same thing about the Falcons, especially the run defenses.

They get the Panthers twice a year. The Panthers might have a decent defense. Yeah, they might. You're right. I take that back. They actually do have a good defense. The Saints and Bucs. Yeah. The Bucs secondary, you never know. Falcons, Auburn's going to be terrible.

Browns with Jacoby Brissett could be terrible. Yes. Browns, though, I mean, if you look at the games they played without Mayfield, and Mayfield was so bad last year because he was hurt. The three games they played without Mayfield, you shouldn't really count Week 18. They played at the Bengals backups. But they still ran the ball really well, you know? I feel like they can run with anybody i mean all these teams are gonna

have components that you like i don't know if the fact i hope i don't know if the falcons or steelers have any component that we like what do we like about naji harris you don't like a workhorse running back what we're talking about the offense now though i mean part of what naji harris was last year was on the field every snap getting dumped down some roth because he's processing the play fast and going to the jet down. Who says that's going to continue? It wasn't like he was hyper efficient as a runner. If you look at his efficiency as just a pure runner, it wasn't there. No, I know.

The thing I still like about it, and you're right, Dan, about, you know, because I do think, you know, people are not giving Roethlisberger enough credit for what he did with his mind and just being a veteran quarterback. They'll be more explosive plays. You know, I think from just the standpoint of, you know, we'll probably see, I don't think he's a top three receiver, but the best of Chase Claypool. You know, we'll see what George Pickens does. We'll probably see Deontay Johnson making more plays down the field. We'll also see a lot more mobility from the quarterbacks because both Pickens and Trubisky can clearly run.

And so that's a dynamic that we know Mike Tomlin, you know, from the offseason reports when he was, you he was seemingly in love with Malik Willis, that, you know, he was looking for a more mobile quarterback and a guy that can get out and make plays with his legs. And he has two of them now, you know, to whatever extent those guys do. So I don't, I don't think the Steelers offense will be nearly that bad. Doesn't mean that Deontay Johnson is going to be that bet that much better.

So, but yeah, the Falcons offense is probably going to be overall the worst. It's just Seattle could be bad. I mean, we've seen, I don't know if he's a starter. That could be awful as good as the talent is there. Um, don't forget about the giants. Giants are always a possibility. Giants are a possibility.

A couple of sleepers as well as the giants are the bears that offensive line was not upgraded nearly enough and they don't have the receiving talent another sleeper for me is washington i think once is a terrible quarterback outside of having the good offensive line he had in indianapolis which he doesn't get anymore they gave up brandon sheriff a terrible decision by washington and i thought um that offensive line is going to be worse as well so that's it this is just a couple sleepers i don't think they'll be the worst but just some teams i'm like shying away from Carolina to McAfee. Good God. Yeah. And offensive line is always Houston and shouldn't just the Jets have a lot of weapons, but I don't see Houston in there. I like Davis. They have no running game. I know. I mean,

they might. They might with Damian Pierce. I don't know. But they're they're they're like one one good skill position player. It's who knows. Maybe Nico Collins. I don't know, but they're like one good skill position player. Who knows? Maybe Nico Collins is good. I don't know, but right now it's the Brandon Cook show. The Jets are a good call too. Don't forget about him.

Who? John Mechie. John Mechie, yeah. All right, let's read some Apple podcast questions here. Did you really just correct Jamie on the pronunciation of John Mechie's name? I think Jamie said both. I did say both.

And I think he's previously said that he always forgets how to pronounce his last name. Yeah. All right, Schneer. That's just a very snippy way of putting it, you know? It was a little snippy, yeah. So let's read. We got 11 Apple Podcast questions.

I'm giving you 10 minutes. Here we go. From ColbyDog0707, have you played in a league where each week you get one win for winning head-to-head and another win if you're in the top half of the scoring league for the week. I'm thinking of doing this to try to balance out

some of the randomness of who you happen to play that week. If so, how would you change your team makeup and your drafting strategy? Well, Dan has never played in a league like this because he's never won both the head-to-head matchup and finished in the top half in the same week. But those leagues do exist. That didn't even make any sense by the way yes

how those two things can easily be independent you can play in a league and then not finish in the top half and win your week well you can still be in that league well i said have you played in a league where you you win you get one win for winning head-to-head and another you've never done both i can't wait to destroy adam in all the leagues i mean we're gonna have updates later on on the standings and our head-to-head things of that. But I will say this, this is the best way to play fantasy football. I'm trying to convert everyone toward this. It's called Apex scoring. It's a much fairer way to do it. And it actually takes a little bit of the randomness and a little bit of the variance out of the equation. Yeah, our flex leagues are going to from ZHSJENDUB. 10 team half PPR. What are your thoughts? It's a

two running back, two receiver, two flex league, by the way. What are your thoughts on playing two running backs from the same backfield? Is there any combination you'd consider? It's not great because you're cannibalizing yourself a little bit, but there are certainly some backfields where it can work. Uh, the Packers this year come to mind, uh, because what Jones should do in the passing game and what Dylan might do on the ground.

Um, Denver, maybe Denver because it's so cheap, you know, it's hard to find two guys that might have a role in one of them going a hundredth overall. If McKinnon gets hurt, maybe the chiefs,

if they just have a two back system there. Yep. What about Dallas? What about Cleveland? I think Kareem Hunt's pretty cheap too. Yeah. Cleveland's a good one. The whole Cleveland backfield is interesting to me because if we have Jacoby

Brissett and no Deshaun Watson, I feel like a lot of people are forgetting that part of why Chubb was productive last year is because Hunt was going through a bad injury year, right? Like a beginning of people are forgetting that part of why Chubb was productive last year is because Hunt was going through a bad injury year, right? Like beginning of the season, it wasn't, what were the numbers, Adam? Do you have them on Chubb before Hunt's injury and after Hunt's injury? I know I'm putting you on the spot. That's a tough thing to just have right off the top of your head. No, I probably do. I know two years ago, it was heavily in favor of Nick Chubb. But go ahead.

Just make your point and I'll tell you. It's still a very good offensive line, though. I think Jacoby Brissett's actually going to be great for Kareem Hunt because he's panicked and dumps the ball a lot. I got you. This is your – okay. First five games, they threw 29 times per game. Nick Chubb was – they both were top 12 running backs in PPR.

Kareem Hunt was actually better. But Nick Chubb had 90 carries in those five games. That's a 306 carry pace. Kareem Hunt had 55 carries. That's a 187 carry pace. But he was on pace, Kareem Hunt was on pace for 58 catches. He scored five touchdowns.

Chubb scored four. So they both were home runs, basically. Yeah, I stand corrected. I mean, I guess you could say Chubb was a little disappointing. He was RB14 per game in that stretch, and PPR was RB4 per game in non-PPR. And when you get a five-game sample size, the points are very bunched up.

But they were both must-start guys with them throwing 29 times per game. Kareem Hunt's value is just incredible. Yeah, it is. Okay, let's go to Get Me the Damn Ball, Danny, from a town in central Illinois with a population less than 20,000.

I'm going to leave those to Dave. I'm in a league that highly rewards touchdowns. Can you name the best deep threat options for teams like the Saints or Broncos where the deep threat role is less defined? Or better yet, a game where Adam picks a team and everyone else picks the best deep threat option for that team.

P.S., what is the artsiest movie that you hate the most and love the most? For me, it's I Love Under the Skin and I Hate a Ghost Story. I don't know. If a ghost story is the one with Casey Affleck, then that was a movie we watched 10 minutes of and turned it off. It was, yes. Oh, my God.

It's the worst movie ever. Holy cow. I mean, so bad. I swear, minutes. Couldn't even watch it. There's another movie called mother with Jennifer Lawrence. I just hate those movies where it's like, Hey, I am so much smarter than you enjoy this crappy movie. Uh, don't, don't watch that. Uh, there's no artsy movie that I can think of that I really love. I like garden state. I don't know if that's artsy or not, but, um, you guys can weigh in. Okay. You's no artsy movie that I can think of that I really love. I like Garden State. I don't know if that's artsy or not. You guys can weigh in. Okay. You guys like artsy movies?

Hate artsy movies? Eternal Sunshine and Spotless Mind. Great movie. Artsy. Very artsy. Have you seen that, Adam? Not really, no. What do you mean, not really? I've seen parts of it. I'm not really dying to see it my favorite

is the squid in the whale is that artsy yeah it's a great it's a very good movie okay so i'll give you guys a team you tell me the deep threat we'll start saints who's the deep threat a lot of a a lot of broncos that's interesting uh the featured one is going to be Sutton. Yeah. Same. The deep threat role is going to be Hamlin. Yep. Okay. Those are the two teams he suggested. And those are the only teams I can think of. How about the Dallas,

Dallas Cowboys? That's interesting. Um, Washington. Yeah. That's a great call. If he, if he gets on the field,

that's a great call. Packers. Um, Christian Watson, yeah that's a great call if he if he gets on the field that's a great call packers um christian watson i think yeah it could be sammy could be sammy too yeah how about the i'll do one more here how about the the chief is interesting okay chiefs it's got to be MVS though right you'd hope alright next question is keeper question from Nelson 10 team PPR

one keeper league picking 102 keep Justin Jefferson at 209 or Debo Samuel in round 13 Samuel yeah obviously from Quizno which is funny or Debo Samuel in round 13? Samuel. Yeah, obviously. Okay.

From Quizno, which is funny. Q-U-I-Z-Z-K-N-O-W. Shannari, you ever have Quiznos? Yeah, not great. But better than like, okay, let me say this about Quiznos. It was early on in the Quiznos days, it was actually pretty good. It got considerably worse.

I think, is it out of business now? Is that even a franchise anymore? I haven't seen one in a long time. But nowhere near as bad as the most repulsive establishment on earth. And after giving that preamble, I'm not going to name it because just in case it's a sponsor of ours or has been. It might be, yes. I can't even do it. But there's one place in these, let's just say, convenience sub realm or genre, whatever you want to call it, that it provides what I consider poison and has actually been proven to be poison. I actually like pretty much all of the sub shops.

There goes our sponsorship. Well, I haven't named a name. It's not Quiznos. I haven't named a name. The closest Quiznos to us is in Orange, Connecticut. It might be one that had yoga mats in their bread, but I don't know. Same things that make yoga mats. I really love that place.

Do you? Yeah. We'll have to have a big conversation off pod then. Okay. I hope you're joking. No, I like... I really hope you're joking. I love them all.

I love them all. I go for that place. Yikes. All right, from a city in Virginia. All right, so 10-team league, full PPR, keep one player, no time restrictions or penalties. He has also the 10th and 11th pick in the Snake Draft.

Would you keep DeAndre Swift in round 5, Javante Williams in round 7, or Josh Allen in round 10? This is a full PPR 10-team league. Swift in round 5, Javante in round 7, Josh Allen in round 10. For me, it's definitely either Swift, Javante round seven, Josh Allen round 10. For me,

it's definitely either Swift or Javante, uh, in one QB. That's a tough call. I want to go, I want to go with, I'm going to go with Javante. I'm going to go Swift.

Yeah. I understand. Because like the way I, the way I'm drafting them, like Swift is a borderline first round guy for me. And Javante is, uh, early third. So I'm drafting them, Swift is a borderline first-round guy for me, and Javante is early third. So I'm already baking in two-round difference already. Yep, that's fair.

All right, here is Derek. Derek, I have pick 105 in the startup 12-team Dynasty League. Is that a dodgeball reference again? No, that was Eric from Billy Madison's go-to for us. Okay, okay. It seems like they're doing a standard Dynasty startup draft and also a rookie draft, so the Dynasty startup will not have the rookies.

I have 105 in the 12-team. Yeah, I don't understand that either, but go ahead. 105 in the startup 12-team Dynasty League. A manager wants to trade his 102 in the startup dynasty league and pick 111 in the rookie draft for my 208 in the startup and picks 108 and 208 in the rookie draft seems like a win to me a thousand percent yeah yeah that's a good one from wiley ross 10 team half ppr looks like we'll have the choice of chase and mixon at the 10-11 turn. Should I feel confident about starting my team with two Bengals

or pivot to Kelsey, Adams, Swift, etc.? So is Mixon, Chase, or one of those two, and Kelsey and Adams? Yeah. I mean, Kelsey, Chase is pretty good. Yeah, I don't hate Kelsey, Chase. I don't think you should be. To answer the Yeah, I don't hate Kelsey Chase. I don't think you should be. To answer the question, I don't think you should be scared of the Spangles offense. They really massively upgraded that offensive line this offseason,

which is really big for them. There's always a problem with the Super Bowl loser, though. That is true. That is definitely true. That's not true. That's not true. Who hasn't? The Chiefs?

True. The Chiefs were fine. No, the Chiefs were not good for a long time. The Chiefs' offense last year was a massive disappointment for a long stretch. I know they then picked it up. They still were great. I mean...

In the end, they ended up being great. Well, the running back was bad, right? Yeah, the running back was bad the year before, though. That wasn't anything different. It was a three-man team, though. It was really just getting value out of my homes. Kelsey. What was the Superbowl before that?

Chiefs diners? Yes. Where that was. Niners sunk. Niners were a disaster. That, but I think Garoppolo got hurt, right?

So what? Okay. Uh, the year before that was, um, Patriots. Oh, Rams.

Yeah. Rams. The Rams were a disaster. Yeah. No, it wasn't Patriots. Oh, Rams? Yeah, Rams. The Rams were a disaster. No, it wasn't Patriots-Rams. No, that was a year before that. This is Adam, Jamie, and Dan trying to see how bad their memories are. It wasn't Patriots-Rams? I thought that was the year before that. There was something in between that.

Patriots-Rams, and then Chiefs. Yeah, and then Brady went to the Bucs, and and then chiefs. Yeah. And then, then Brady went to the bucks and it was chiefs 49ers. And then it was chiefs bucks. No, no, no,

wait, wait, wait. The Patriots definitely did not make the super bowl in Brady's last year with them. No, that was T. So,

okay. So then we're missing a super bowl here. What the hell is going on? It was Patriots Rams or... No, it was Patriots Rams. Then there was another one in between. Because Brady did not go to the Super Bowl in his last year with the

Patriots. No, the last year with the Patriots was Mahomes and 49ers. Chiefs 49ers. But then what are we missing? Chiefs 49ers and then... Oh, okay. No, no, no. And then what? What do? Chiefs 49ers and then... Oh, okay. No, no, no. And then what? What do you mean then?

We had Patriots, Rams, and we're before that. Brady's last win with the Patriots was against the Rams, right? Oh, Bucs, Chiefs, and then... Yeah, the Bucs, Chiefs, and then... Did we say that one? Oh, we did. My bad. All right, okay. Okay, we were right.

We're good. We're good. We're good. It took us 120 seconds, but we're good. All right, number one, PopMed... And the Rams were a disaster after this. We're both. The took us 120 seconds, but we're good. All right. Number one, PopMed. And the Rams were a disaster after this. We're both. The Rams were, yeah.

Yes, they were. Number one, PopMedPodFan. Keep three. PPR. First round, McCaffrey. Second round, Diggs. Third round, Javante. Third round, Swift.

Swift. No, keep three. Throwback one. Say that again. Can. No, keep three. Throwback one. Say that again. Can you give the numbers again? Throwback Gervonta. McCaffrey in the first, Diggs in the second, Gervonta in the third, Swift in the third. Who are you throwing back? Do we get to know the pick they have?

That's a big factor. Just throwback Gervonta. Not just throwback Gervonta, he says. Just throwback Gervonta. Fine, I'll throwback Gervonta. But if it's the 1-1, you can make a case to throwback C-Mac. I wouldn't, but you could. No, that's true. Fair. Because you draft him anyway. From Kevin Wayne, 12. 12 team, three player keeper lead. You draft Gervonta anyway, awesome.

No penalty for the keepers. No, you won't have a chance. No penalty for the keepers. Half PPR, four point per passing time. Keep three. Quarterbacks are popular. 16 or 17 quarterbacks will likely be kept. Three were drafted in the first round last year, and I don't have a first round pick.

So keep three in this group. Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Zeke, Aaron Jones, Diggs, Debo, Kelsey. That's tough. It's two QB or three point? It's's not but it's one qb but if 16 or 17 are going to get kept and then you don't have a first round pick i feel like you have to keep josh allen i don't what it was i mean you still there's still going to be plenty of quarterbacks no there aren't going to be plenty of quarterbacks he's going to have Matt Ryan as a starting quarterback. All right, so you're keeping Kelsey.

Yeah, it comes down to Aaron Jones, Diggs, Debo Samuel, Kelsey, and Josh Allen. Pick three. There's no shot in Al. Josh Allen would be one of my three. Go ahead, Jamie. If you're insistent on keeping a quarterback, then it would be Allen, Jones, and Kelsey for me. If you're not, then I would be Allen Jones and Kelsey for me. If you're not,

then I would keep Debo over Allen. Yeah. I I'm with Jamie second off. No, I'd keep Aaron Jones over Debo. You wouldn't. That's what I said. Oh,

I'd keep Diggs over Debo. Oh, Diggs over Debo. Yeah. Oh, I'm sorry. Yes. Diggs over Debo.

It's those three. And I don't see why you'd be insistent on keeping quarterback. That's something Adam said. Because you, you can't, over to you. It's those three, and I don't see why you'd be insistent on keeping quarterback. That's something Adam said. Because you can't win this league if QB 20 is your starting quarterback. Yes, but you're also throwing now back Allen and Brady into the pool, and you have a chance to draft one of those. Right. Maybe. And who's going to prioritize Allen with their first-round pick

when their first-round quarterback's already capped? He said three of them were drafted in the first round last year. Yeah, but you're also saying, though, that's how many people are keeping quarterbacks, though? Right. If you're claiming all these quarterbacks are being kept, there's going to be fewer teams that need a quarterback. No, some of them will draft down, understandably so.

Maybe not in the first round, though, if they already have a quarterback. We'll have two managers in the first round draft those guys. Yeah. All right, this is from E. Wedlock. You got to think about those things, Adam. I've been thinking about them. In a redraft, I'll be thinking about them as I sleep tonight. In a redraft,

one keeper, PPR League. I mean, this podcast is going so long, we might make it that. Yeah, we can keep anyone drafted in the fifth round or after. I have Justin Herbert

who was drafted in the sixth round. Is he an obvious keeper in the sixth round, Justin Herbert? Is he obvious? Mm-hmm. One QB?

Mm-hmm. No. Nah, I say no as well. No, he's not bad. He's No. I say no as well. He's not bad. He's not bad value. He's fine. He's not obvious, though. Now, Dan Schneier thinks that you can draft Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ritter as your QB and you'll be fine.

Yeah, that's what you're doing. Okay. See you later, everybody. We got a mailbag on Friday that you can watch on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. If you don't do that, you can hear it on Monday. We're also going to have the player profiles from Jacob Gibbs over the weekend. If we don't speak to you before Tuesday, I hope you have a wonderful holiday weekend.

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