Fantasy Football Today - Projection Disagreements and a Mailbag! (04/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 1, 2021

We're talking about a 17-game season! What's our favorite "17th game" in 2021? And we're answering some of your questions at the top of the show including if J.D. McKissic and Curtis Samuel can coexist (7:10), strategies in 16-team leagues (10:10) and James Conner's dynasty value (12:50) ... Some news and notes (15:40) and we get into our projections. How did Heath and Chris account for a 17-game season (17:00)? They debate a couple of QBs (18:00) Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones before getting into the RB debates (22:40). Are they both too low on Jonathan Taylor? Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire going to be a workhorse? What should we make of the recent trend of RBs seeing fewer targets? ... WR debates (34:50) on the Seahawks guys and Michael Thomas. And at TE (42:00) we have a quick discussion about the new Patriots TEs ... Your Apple Podcast questions (44:00) and emails at [e-mail] Follow the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Follow 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. What's up, everybody? Mailbag Show with some projections. I'm Adam Azer with the projection dudes, Heath Cummings and Chris Towers. We are going to go over some of their differences

in their projections. And one thing that is exactly the same, they both have Jonathan Taylor 14th, and I am going to ridicule them for that. Yeah. Yeah, get ready for it, everybody. We're also going to tell you our favorite 17th game. The schedule, the dates of the games have not been released,

but we know who each team is playing for their additional 17th game. I am not over it yet. I don't know. I don't know how to deal with this. I am really into 16-game paces, and that's over. It's just over. I, it's just over. I don't, I, I hate it.

I'm glad. I thought we were going to have to rehash the Mike Williams, Will Fuller thing. And that was so crazy. I mean, it's like Heath, you know, I'm usually in line with a lot of your takes,

but like that was no horrendous. He didn't even give a take. No, no, no. You said Will Fuller wouldn't even hasn't even had what was it his best season wouldn't even be mike williams like statistically will fuller's best season would be the third best season of mike williams career mike williams has a thousand

yard season and a 10 touchdown season will fuller's never played more than 11 games yeah will fuller had a better year this year than Mike Williams ever had. You didn't even give a take. Unquestionably. I forget. I'm not doing it. I lost sleep over it last night.

Availability is the best ability. So anyway, before we get to your emails, a few of them to start the show at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. What's the best 17th game? And by the way, we don't think that... I'd be shocked if this were week 18. I think a lot of people feel like this is going to be the last game of the year for each team.

I don't see why that's the case. I assume they're going to stay in division. These could be randomly scheduled throughout the year. But best 17th game, Homer Heath. It's obviously the Chiefs and the Packers, and we can move on to whatever is next. It's obviously the Chiefs and the Packers, and we can move on to whatever is next. It's obviously the Chiefs and the Packers. Chris, what's the runner-up?

Oh, I think it's definitely... I don't know. I was going to say, make a joke about Falcons, Jaguars, or Bears, Raiders, but it's probably Rams, Ravens, I guess. Cardinals, Browns. Yeah. Cardinals-Browns. Yeah.

Could be really good, too. Yeah. Saints-Titans could be fun. So what they did for the 17th game is they took the division that each team faced in 2019 and they're facing them again. I don't think Mahomes played in that game, did he?

We didn't get Mahomes-Rogers, right? Yeah, there was like a Monday night game or something. We were robbed of Mahomes-Rogers, as I recall. I will double check on that. Hopefully we get it this year. Hopefully we get it this year. We were robbed of it for the Super Bowl. I would have liked to have seen it for the Super Bowl.

Yeah, he missed two games that year. He got hurt against Denver, and the following week was Green Bay, and then Minnesota. He missed those two games. Okay, a couple things to promote. It is madness time in the sports world. NCAA tournament.

We got the final four, but if you're a diehard sports fan, you want to stay in the know with all sports, and that's where CBS Sports HQ is your streaming answer. Just think about what's on tap this week alone. We got the NFL draft and off-season coverage. We got MLB opening day, which is today. Yes, we're recording Wednesday,

but this is Thursday as you're hearing this. Bellator 255 on Friday. Golf picks and highlights, and of course, unmatched breaking news coverage. I could go on, but you get it, okay? CBS Sports HQ is the place to be. Sports never sleeps, and neither does CBS Sports HQ. If there's fantasy news, by the way,

you'll see somebody from our staff on CBS Sports HQ breaking down the big news. It's available on your computer, your phone via the CBS Sports app, and your connected TV. I leave it on all day. I watch it whenever I have some spare time, basically. I just pop on CBS Sports HQ.

I get caught up on everything I need to know. And a big programming announcement. I'm not even sure if you two know this. time, basically. I just pop on CBS Sports HQ. I get caught up on everything I need to know. And a big programming announcement. I'm not even sure if you two know this. I don't. NFL Draft, Thursday, April 29th. Five hours of live coverage. A one-hour pregame show. And we will be on YouTube the entire first round of the NFL Draft.

I think it's just the three of us. And for part of it, it might just be the two of you. So... All right. Yeah. Five hours of NFL draft. When you have to go run outside

and celebrate that the Giants took Kyle Pitts. Well, I'm glad... I'm going to have to prepare for the podcast after, so I might just leave you guys on for the last two hours or something. I'm glad I got 30 days notice. There's a post first round podcast as well. Yes, you're on that.

And by the way, April Fool's! Just kidding! No NFL draft show. Just wanted to mess with you a little bit. Not April Fool's. Well, I guess when people are listening to this, it will be. The thing is, odds are, I'm going to be on an NFL draft show.

There is going to be an NFL draft show. Not five hours, though. Well, I hope if you're watching on YouTube, there was some look in their face. You just gave someone a bad idea. A great idea. All right, let's get to the emails. Sorry, I know nobody wanted

to do five hours on April Fool's. I have one quick other programming note because this isn't going to last, so I want to quick other programming note on the draft yeah because this isn't going to last so I want to take advantage and get all the glory out of it that I can now this is the way you approach success kids I am in second place now in this

890 person bracket challenge and if Gonzaga beats Houston for the title I will win it and I think you or Shraggy B, one of the two of you, should give me something if I do. I agree. Now, how do you lose?

If I think basically anything other than what I just said happens. Okay, so if Baylor beats Houston. Because Mr. Yaffe, as Houston winning it all, over Gonzaga, I believe. So basically, I need Houston to win, Gonzaga to win, and Gonzaga to beat Houston still. That's the problem with picking complete chalk like I did, is everything has to go perfect for you.

Yeah, but you're in second place, so it can't be that bad. I am interested to know from college basketball enthusiasts if Gonzaga will go down as one of the all-time great teams if they finish out an undefeated season and win the championship, and Heath wins three cars by winning the pool. I'm 57th. This is the first time I've checked it

since I randomly selected my team, so that's pretty good. Please look where I am. I'm guessing somewhere in the 700s. Way to go, Sportsline Optimal Bracket. Hey, not bad. my team. So that's pretty good. Please look where I am. I'm guessing somewhere in the 700s. Okay. Way to go, Sportsline Optimal Bracket. Hey, not bad. Bryce from New Orleans.

Curtis Samuel versus JD McKissick. I feel they are essentially the same player or at least similar play styles. Who would you all take in a full PPR league? Oh, I think they're very different. I think Curtis Samuel could be really, really good in this? Oh, I think they're very different. I think I think Curtis Samuel could be really, really

good in this offense, and I think he has shown the ability to be a viable downfield threat in 2019 with the Panthers. He was like fourth or fifth in the NFL in air yards. He was wide open down the field all the time. They just

couldn't get the ball anywhere close to him. That's the one thing I've not been clear on because I know the air yard stat has been discussed a lot with Curtis Daniel that year. I know the quarterback play was bad. The wide open part, was he? Or was that just a design of their offense and they were just winging it down the field? Was he up there in separation or something that year as well? I don't have any numbers to back it up.

He's... No, I've seen some highlight packages with... Matt Harmon likes him. Yeah, like a significant number of plays where he was clearly open downfield. And obviously, deep throws are always like even at best, you're looking at like a 55% conversion rate, but his was like 20% or something, maybe even lower. even a half or portion of last year was the first time that they've ever actually been particularly useful for fantasy. I'm uncomfortable with Samuel, but I would much, I agree with Chris. I'd much rather draft him than McKissick.

Now I'm very worried with the combination of Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel coming in. We'll talk about Gibson in a little bit that the running back targets, especially if they continue to be split at all, are really going to dry up. Yeah, and the version of Alex Smith we saw last year was maybe the most dump-off happy quarterback we've ever seen with Fitzpatrick.

Let me just wrap it up. I'm sorry, I should have told you this, but I want to go fast on these questions here because this is a mailbag. I have a ton of questions, including Apple podcast questions. McKissick was second on the team with 110 targets. I did notice this, though.

We have this narrative that we've been pushing that Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw to his running backs. He threw 29 times to Myles Gaskin in five games. Oh, yeah. I wasn't going to say he doesn't throw to his running backs. It's more... Six games. Sorry.

Six games. Yeah. The fact that they're going to say he doesn't throw to his running backs. It's more... Six games, sorry. Six games, yeah. The fact that they're going to be splitting with them and the fact that the Dolphins' wide receiving core was pretty awful last season. And 29 times in six games is approximately five per game, which would be 80 over a 16-game season. Last year, the Washington football team... Well, I'm comparing to last year, so we're in Doc 16.

Last year, the Washington football team threw 161 passes to their running backs. That's a lot. Okay, from Mark, can you chat about how your draft strategy would change in a 16 team PPR league, a rejaff league, four point per

passing touchdown, two wide receivers, two running backs, tight end flex. How does your strategy change in a 16-team league? I think, I don't know. I could look at it one of two ways. My first thought was I want to get two good running backs. My other thought, though, was given the fungibility of running backs and how much they get hurt anyway,

in a league where there's no depth available on waivers, I kind of want to just ignore running back and be as good as I can everywhere else. Because even if I invest heavily in running back in a 16-team league, I'm probably not going to have multiple running backs who I feel really good about. I would really, really, really like to draft Travis Kelsey in the first round.

I want an elite tight end. And I'm leaning more towards where Chris was. I think that I want at least one really good running back. But I was thinking at first I might just take two running backs and a tight end in my first three picks. I want running back depth. I can only tell you about our PPR league with 14 team PPR league. It's so hard to find running backs on waivers throughout the year. And in a 16 team

league, it's impossible. And then when somebody becomes available, if you're doing waiver claims, it's one thing. If you're doing fab, I mean, everyone's going to be in on that backup running back. So right, there's an injury. So I want running back depth. It's the hardest position to find on the waiver wire. I would, I would make it a priority. I would want it. I would want four running backs that I would feel comfortable starting. And, uh, other than that, I wouldn't have much strategy, but I, I definitely see what you're saying about Kelsey. He's just a huge edge. Um, it's a bigger edge than having like Mahomes because there are just so few teams that are going to have a good

tight end. Then again, you are going to be competing against a lot of teams that have terrible tight ends. So if you're bad at tight end in a 16-team league, maybe it's not that big of a deal because at least half the league is going to be bad at tight end. But you

kind of have to be great everywhere. Okay, but maybe they say don't go middle with tight end, you know, don't go like this. Sure,

I don't think you should. I think spending up for the middle class of tight ends has historically been one of the worst investments you can make. All right,

let's end it there because I agree with you. Good call. From Colin, hashtag conceived in Wyoming. That is all. That's disgusting. And Chris and Heath weren't on the show, but that's disgusting.

Yeah, it's disgusting. From Jeff, from Jacob Eason's and Chris Pratt's hometown. Were they conceived in Wyoming? Jamie said I was, and that it just was uncomfortable. What is to be done with Jamesames connor in a dynasty league

i haven't heard there hasn't been anything about him in free agency that i've heard i don't want to drop him um all you can do is hold i think i took him in the ninth round of our non-ppr uh startup mock today maybe been maybe even a little. He's still 26 this year, right? Right. He was kind of borderline, I think, in some teams' minds, other than the Steelers in their backyard. Is there another team besides them that wants to

employ him as a starting running back? We don't know. And from Buck, I listened to your DraftKings cereal rundown with Mike, and I feel sorry for you all that you didn't experience Rice Krispie Treats cereal as a kid. And even more sad that you haven't had it as an adult. He then sent a link to Rice Krispie

Treats cereal on Amazon and it's unavailable. So it looks like it might be gone forever, but there is not a cereal close to this. A once in a while kind of thing, not every day as an adult. Have you guys had agree rice crispy treat cereal was very good you had it was yeah it was just like clusters of rice krispies i never had it

with milk it was just like a snack to eat i don't really have um box cereal i can't remember the last time i did but i eat that was one is this? Granola with blueberries and yogurt all mixed together? I think granola is technically a cereal. Granola, yogurt, and blueberries. No, I'm saying no. I think it's got the milk in the yogurt. It's got the grain in the granola. You throw a slice of cheese on there.

Does that make it a cereal? Give me a break. That's a fair question, Adam. I'm going to have a cheeseburger for breakfast. What's that soup you eat that has the ice in it that you eat cold? Gazpacho? Yeah. That's

cheese, right? I don't know. Is that cereal? Tomato soup. I have no idea what gazpacho is. Okay. I'm going to do a Twitter poll. Is this... is the following considered cereal i need you to tell me what it was again um granola yogurt and it's whole milk yogurt if that makes a difference i'm not gonna put that well it is whole milk yogurt and blueberries And blueberries. Okay. Considered cereal.

Okay. Let's get a little Twitter poll going here. Yes and no. Granola with yogurt. I'm glad you kept shushing us on. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's get going here. Somebody could spend six minutes talking about cereal. Oh, news and notes real quick here.

Seattle signed Tyler Lockett to a four-year extension. He's actually in the show notes today with the projections. He has finished on a per-game basis, actually not as good as you might think, his last three seasons, 21st, 22nd, and 16th in non-PPR, 24th, 22nd, and 12th in PPR. But overall, because he plays every game, he's been a top

16 at worst receiver at the end of the year. That's Tyler Lockett for your extension. They also signed Gabe Jackson, who they just acquired in a trade to a three-year contract extension. Pittsburgh signed Kalen Balazs. We were just talking about James Conner. Benny Snell, in four

games without James Conner, had 19, 19, 10, and 21 touches. This is a team that just gives one guy a lot of work. What does Kalen Balazs mean to this backfield? If anything, Heath, I have no idea. Um, I don't think I'm, I've been kind of working with the assumption. There's a few of these backfields where we still don't know who the lead running back in Pittsburgh is.

And Kalen Balazs did not change that opinion of mine. Like, we've had multiple reports from Steelers beat writers just tweeting little captions. I wouldn't expect Benny Snell to lead this team's backfield. I wouldn't expect... I don't think... I don't expect Kalen Balazs to lead this team's backfield. So I think they'll draft somebody. Okay.

Let's go to the projections differences here. So you guys have your 17-game projections, which, first of all, I'll let Heath, you guys can both talk about this. Heath, you have the first word. What was it like doing 17-game projections? It was kind of a pain because of the process that I go through. I think it was probably easier for Chris.

It looked like to me. No, I looked at your spread. That wasn't like... No, no, no. it's just because I I mean I you've put you've done a lot more of the cleanup work for your projection so far where mine are still very preliminary right and so like I may go back and like tweak things for 17 game season but what I did was just divided by 16 and multiplied by 17 or just multiply by 105.8%.

There you go. Is that what you did? No, I had to go in and change things on the team level. And so that was a little bit more of a challenge, especially when it came to touchdowns, but we're all good. Okay.

So two of the quarterback discrepancies, Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan, Chris has Daniel Jones. Was it somebody jumping in there? It's really amazing. I felt like I sent like seven names and Chris sent at least a dozen names. And the very first name people say, what does Heath have against Daniel Jones? Why is Heath always talking about Daniel Jones? I'm not being given a choice. No, what the hell? Are you serious? I didn't see you guys sent a bunch of names. Chris sent me

a spreadsheet with the... Chris sent me one quarterback. It was Cam Newton. We've talked about him a lot. I don't know. Cam Newton's not even going to be their starter, perhaps. Okay, anyway. Daniel Jones. Well, Chris has him 13th. Heath has him 21st. Fine. He'll be the second guy

we talk about. Matt Ryan. Chris has him 14th, and Heath has him 27th. Chris, 14th on Matt Ryan. Yeah, and I think, you know, in going over this the last couple of days, I think what it comes down to essentially is

a difference in what the expectation of Arthur Smith's role and impact as the head coach of the Falcons will be. And the hardest thing about projections is the team totals for passes and runs. That's the thing that fluctuates most for teams because it's not just based on what the offensive coordinator wants to do or what the head coach wants to do if you get hurt if you get injuries on defense you're going to throw more probably like um so my underlying assumption is that the falcons are still going to be extremely pass heavy just because i don't think they're going to be able to run the ball especially well with with mike davis i don't think he's a guy that you feed it to 18 times a game. And I still think the strength of that offense is in the passing game.

So I would think that Arthur Smith is a good enough head coach to understand that it's not about your philosophy. It's about the talent that you have. Yeah, that's why, as i had sent a note about this we're 90 pass attempts for the team apart chris has the falcons leading the nfl in passing in pass attempts and i have them third but yeah okay and i have when i sorted by pass attempts it showed matt ryan with the most there may have been a team you have sharing um and i've got him 24th and i've got him throwing like 30% more passes than an Arthur Smith team's ever thrown.

So we don't, we don't really know. And if I would, I will definitely alter my Falcons projections. If they take Kyle pits as early as there's talk that they might, he said, they really seem to like him and they don't add a running back in the second round, then yeah, it'll be a big change.

I think whether they add another running back is a big part of it. They have the fourth pick. They could potentially trade down. They're not going quarterback, but all right. So that'll explain, right? That'll explain the differences in the Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley projections where Chris is just a lot higher

on the two Falcons guys. It's a pass attempts thing. I actually went and ran my projections with the number of pass attempts that Chris has projected. And I had Ryan one spot higher than Chris does. I had Ridley like two or three spots higher and I had Julio a couple spots higher. So I actually like the Falcons more than Chris.

Okay. All right. So then I will go quick on this. We've talked about Daniel Jones the last few weeks and I want to spend more time with the running backs anyway, but Chris, you did have him 13th, but would you, if you were publishing rankings, would you have the guts to actually put Daniel Jones 13th? Heath has him 21st in his projections.

Oh no, I don't think I would. Good. And this is the kind of, I don't think I would. It's interesting. I'm looking at it, and Heath has Daniel Jones rushing quite a bit more than I do, and rushing is more valuable for quarterbacks. I have Daniel Jones with more overall touchdowns, but it might just come down to Heath being a little higher on passing overall. Other quarterbacks, something that we've talked about off the air is, you know,

Heath has Patrick Mahomes, I think, 30 to 40 points higher than I do over the course of the season. And, you know, we both have him number one, but clearly I think Heath might be expecting more passing production overall. You know, it's interesting. That's something I'll have to look into. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's probably a part of it because when i looked at the falcons and i said like whether you have them first or third it was 639 attempts i think over 17 games and i think i

have like four teams now at 650 yeah okay yeah that makes sense i might just be regressing to the league-wide mean a little more. All right. Well, enough about Daniel Jones. Late round flyer. Let's talk about the running backs here. And start with Jonathan Taylor. What's wrong with you guys? 14th? Shame. Yeah, this is like you asked the question about Chris's rankings. And I think I've got Jonathan Taylor eighth. So I just kind of ignored my projection for him, which is not something I like. If it doesn't change by the time we get to July, I'll probably slide Taylor down just a little bit more.

I think for me, it's mostly a ppr thing and it's i didn't really like that they brought back marlon mack i think he'll touch the ball a little bit i expect naeem hines to still have a pretty big impact um i've got him 10th and non-ppr um it's also like i can see what happened the last six games and get very excited about it but I make a pretty conscious effort to not overweight what happens in the second half of the season, because there's no evidence that that's more predictive of what's going to happen the next year. And which I would imagine is still a little bit lower than where the consensus will be or where Dave and Jamie have him. But yeah, when you're talking about PPR rankings, this is something that's consistent for me across the board. It's just really hard to get

around the math problem with Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, maybe Cam Akers. Why are you putting Taylor there? Because he had 36 catches in 15 games. He's not a 15 catch guy. At least he wasn't last year.

No, I don't think he's a 15 catch guy, but we're talking about, you know, the guys who are being ranked in the top 10. You know, for me, it's, well, you know, I got a couple of guys in the 90 range, but 65, 55, 58, 50, 19, Derrick Henry. Okay. 64, 54.

I have him at least 10 below pretty much everyone inside the top 10 in receptions. And so once you start working from that, it's not just the 10 PPR points from those receptions. It's the 80 to 90 yards. It's the maybe half a touchdown. And so you start adding this up and you either have to project him for an outlier touchdown total, which I have 9.4 rushing touchdowns.

That's a lot. Not really. For a projection, it is. All right. I think I'd take the over. I think people are expecting that. You expect your first round running

backs, and you guys probably don't have them in the first round of PPR. If you do, it's late. Well, not at 14th amongst running backs. Right. Okay, but that's still like top 20. How many running backs had more than 9.4 touchdowns last season? Wait a second.

You don't have them 14th. You have him 14th in your projections, Heath. We're talking about the projected touchdown total. I guess I just think that the appeal of Jonathan Taylor is touchdowns. I think that's part of the appeal, yeah.

How many running backs do you think had. So how many project touchdowns? How many running backs do you think had more than 9.4 touchdowns last season? Five or six? Eight. Eight. It's just it's it's pretty rare. You've got to stay healthy the whole season. Pretty much.

You've got to. Well, but these projections are all 17 game. So weird. They're all everybody's thing. Healthy. I think it's. is it fair to say that if he stays healthy, he, he has a good chance. I don't know. He should, he should be among the leaders in rushing touchdowns. Um, among the top 10 for sure. Yeah. Yeah, I've got him eighth projected in touchdowns at 11.7.

I want to bring this up. This is going to be a recurring theme with a lot of these year two guys. Taylor and Dobbins and Akers in particular. Am I forgetting someone? Robinson catches balls. DeAndre Swift obviously does. Gibson does. The last two years.

So this is the pattern of 50 catch. You hear me talk about 50 catch running backs all the time. Typically, if you're going to be a top five running back, you got to get to 50 catches, except last year was a bit of an exception. But here are the amount of 50 catch running backs the last six seasons. Starting in 2015,

eight, then 11, then 14, then 16, in 2018, and then 13 in 2019, and then only eight last year. And if you just look at top 12 running backs, top 12 finishes in 2017 and 2018, there were only two each year that finished top 12 with fewer than 50 catches. Four total in 2017, 2018. 2019 and 20, there were 13 running backs, including eight last year,

that finished top 12 in PPR with fewer than 50 catches. I don't really know what to make of it. The trend that's going down now for two straight years of 50 catch running backs. Is it maybe that teams are just using committees more? I don't know. Teams have thrown less to their running backs the past two years. Like it's not just individual running backs. It's they've just thrown fewer, a lower percentage of their passes to them.

Well, and interesting. It was eight last season, but it was like Dalvin Cook with 44 and 14 games. It was Aaron Jones with 47 and 14 games. It was James Robinson with 49 and 14 games. There's always going to be that, but yeah, you're right. There were close calls.

And we had Barkley and McCaffrey hurt. We did. Yeah, but that's an interesting thought, though, that is not a thought, but you just said that teams are throwing less to their running back. So should that matter less when you're doing at least your rankings? Not necessarily projections, but your rankings. Should that matter less to the catches?

No, because it's all relative. I have Cam Akers 19th in targets at running back. I have Jonathan Taylor 30th, which might be too low, but it's 52. It's not really that much different from what he had last season. And I'm not sure Carson Wentz

is going to throw to his running backs more than Phillip Rivers did. I would expect it'll be a little less per pass. So, you know, I think ultimately it's still all relative. Like I have 18 running backs getting to at least 49.4 receptions. That's, you know, it's not going to be that many. But when that's what you're projecting, obviously a a guy for 40 that it just you know it's hard to make up that gap especially i don't know about heath's rankings but my rankings are the the gaps between number 21 and number 10 are like less than a point per game i, or 1.1 point per game between number 10 and number 21. So it's also, you know, within that group,

there's a lot of room to move. Okay, speaking of which, Clyde Edward Ziller, 10th for Chris, 18th for Heath. Heath, 18th, yeah, like I said, 18th on CEH, Chris has him 10th. You get the first word, Heath. Yeah, and I've got him like two points per game worse than Jonathan Taylor,

so that's not necessarily the case here. I'm just not like... There was some soul-searching after the end of the season with the way that we elevated Clyde Edwards-Hilaire just because he was the last pick of the first round and he was an Andrew Reid running back. And I didn't think going into the draft that he was near as good as jonathan taylor or deandre swift or jk dobbins and he wasn't really i mean he had a good start to the season in terms of the

number of touches they were giving him in the yards he was compiling but he wasn't necessarily doing a lot of great things and then the chiefss brought in Le'Veon Bell. And then in the playoffs, the Chiefs split his touches with Darrell Williams. And so I'm just not really convinced. We've got the sample with Andy Reid specifically in Kansas City is getting pretty murky on whether he wants to have a committee or he wants to have a true feature back. And I'm just not convinced that Clyde Edwards withHilaire with the questions he had before the draft is a true feature back. Yeah, I mean, when Damian Williams was healthy, like it was a committee,

but he was playing enough to be, you know, an elite fantasy running back. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, he was in a committee towards the second half of the season, but how much of that was because of that hip and ankle injury that he suffered, you know, in the,

in the post season, I think that was a lot of it. Um, agreed. Yeah. Cause he, cause he really was the guy in the super bowl when he had an extra week to heal.

But, but to Heath's point, I don't know, Damien Williams going in the beginning of the 2019 season, it was a really annoying committee and it was disappointing. He got hurt early too, but even just look at week one, it was like,

wow, that was disappointing. He averaged 12.8 touches per game that season. Damien Williams? Right, but there were, like he was not healthy for most of the season. He's a different animal though because he's just not a proven thing. He's not a guy they took in the first round. Yeah. I mean,

Clyde or Jalere, I think, you know, funny enough, it does come down to receptions again, this in this instance, I have him rushing for you know, 80 more yards, but I think the biggest difference is you know, I have him for nearly 10 more receptions and you know, about a hundred more receiving yards. And I think that's a big part of it is I just think when he was healthy, there were signs that they wanted to use him in the receiving game down the field.

I think they probably will not have quite as much of a concentration in their top targets. And so I just think there's a little bit of room for him to grow as a receiver. Let's go to James White. Heath, you have him 29th, and Chris has James White 43rd. Go ahead, Heath, 29th. Hi, guy, James White and your projections. We have lost Heath's microphone.

Heath, you are muted. I am back. I talked about this last week. And the Patriots, despite the fact they didn't throw the ball at all, still led all teams in the percentage of their throws that went to running backs, 29.3%. I don't think with the weapons they went out and added,

they intend on throwing the ball 420 times again this year. So I'm kind of expecting White's share of the targets to remain pretty close to the same but for there to be more targets to go around. And I think this is probably one of those situations

where if I've got him projected for 62 catches, if you catch 60 passes, it's hard to not be a top 30 running back. Yeah. Solid point. Yeah, I have him for lower usage across the board pretty much. I think 10 fewer catches and like 25 to 30 fewer carries. So I think that's,

I just have him with a smaller role in the offense all around. You know that I think I agree. They're going to throw the ball more, but I would think given Cam Newton style, if they have more weapons that share of running back targets will go down. That would be my expectation. Sorry. I had a sneeze there.

You guys didn't hear that. Did you? I think I muted my mic on time. No, I had to sneeze too. And I muted. And then I forgot. I'm back. I'm back. Okay. Wide receivers. hear that did you i think i muted my mic on time no i didn't i had to sneeze too and i muted and then i forgot okay i'm back i'm back okay um wide receivers then let's talk about some wide receivers here how about michael thomas chris you have a second in your projections and heath

has michael thomas 11th and we don't even know who his quarterback's gonna be i'm almost certain that and this was i thought this before i even looked it up, but it's, I'm projecting Jameis Winston as the starter. Heath's projecting Taysom Hill as the starter. I would imagine if he projected Jameis Winston as the starter, Michael Thomas would move up quite a bit because I would think that would add 100 pass attempts to their projection probably. Yeah, I think that's fair.

And Hill did target Michael Thomas heavily last year. He had like a 40% target. 32, 30... I think it was 38% or something. It was not. It was 32.5. And the four starts? Yes.

32.5. 41% of his yards. Okay. Am I wet at Heath? Are we looking all Taysom Hill throws or just the games that Drew Brees didn't play? Just those four starts. Okay. So yeah, I have

Michael Thomas right up there with the league leaders and targets with Jameis Winston as a starter. I think he was like sixth or seventh with Taysom Hill as the starter. I just I don't see any reason like I don't think there's any reason to think Michael Thomas can't be,

you know, one of the best receivers in football again. I think last season, for most of the time that he was healthy, he still looked like that guy. There was a low touchdown rate. There were a couple of weeks where he wasn't healthy, but what's that? Zero touchdowns.

Yes, like I said, a low touchdown rate. Chris, I think he might be the best value in fantasy. I don't understand what people... I mean, I get it if Taysom Hill's the quarterback, but even if he doesn't have a 32% target share... I think he would. Even if Taysom Hill's the quarterback, I think he would have an elite target share.

Right, exactly. I mean, wouldn't he be among the leaders in target share? I think absolutely. Who else do they have? Even if they draft a rookie, who else do they have? He's going to get every target. He's going to catch it. Alvin Kamara?

Yeah, whatever. He's going to get... They do have Alvin Kamara, but come on. He's still going to dominate targets. Well, I'm higher on Alvin Kamara, too, than Heath is. But I think with Michael Thomas, part of it is also, I I think with Jameis Winston as his quarterback,

Michael Thomas has historically been a pretty low touchdown rate guy. I think that would be different with Jameis Winston as his quarterback. I have him with a lower catch rate than he usually does, but I think there would be more downfield throws with Jameis Winston for Michael Thomas.

And I think he could be a more efficient receiver while still having an incredibly valuable role in the offense. So, yeah, I think the sky's the limit. Heath, why are you lower on the Seahawks receivers, Metcalf and Lockett? Chris has them. Oh, you're higher. Chris has them 15th and 17th. Heath has them 9th and 10th. Not a huge difference difference but just obviously is that a pass attempts thing again you're higher on the Seahawks guys

about 40% 40 pass difference there which might explain a lot of it that could be enough really I mean I'm always higher on Tyler Lockett than just about everyone and that I think the point you make about the per game thing is interesting it's it's something I wish we could come to some sort of compromise on because I agree that per game is more valuable than total finish, but it's also relative.

Like Tyler Lockett's been in the league for seven seasons and never missed a game. His per game is more valuable than someone who plays 11 games every season. Oh yeah. I don't have any way. I didn't mean to disparage him when I said that. What he's, if you missed it,

what he is referring to is I said, uh, per game, he's been two of the last three years has actually been outside the top 20. I think last year he was 16th per game. So, you know, he,

he plays 16 games. When you play 16 games, you're going to finish higher 16th per game. So, you know, he plays 16 games. When you play 16 games, you're going to finish higher than your per game average. But he's more valuable. He has been more valuable than like the 22nd best wide receiver for sure. And the thing when you're talking about projections, and I'm sure Heath does the same thing, we're projecting for the whole season.

We're not like, oh, I think Tyler Lockett's going to miss a game. So I'm only going to, we're just projecting as if everyone plays a full season. And so Tyler Lockett playing 17 games and finishing with 14.9 PPR points per game, he's going to finish higher than 17th if he does that. He'll probably finish, if he scores 252.6 PPR points is what I have him for.

He'll finish a lot higher than 17 because a lot of guys will miss games. But for me, part of, and this doesn't really have anything to do with the projections. It's more of a philosophical thing is I don't feel particularly confident that we have really any good way of knowing who's more likely to miss games in the following season. I think missed games in the past are a better predictor of future injuries is a useful heuristic, but I think it's not at all a steadfast rule. And this is something I get yelled at a lot in the baseball podcast because I always like Giancarlo St Stanton and then everyone gets mad when he

gets hurt. I think you should make an exception to your rule for Giancarlo Stanton. I think that exception word is like, I don't think a lot of the versus defense stuff is particularly helpful or helpful, but I think the three best defenses are generally really impactful and the three worst match or worst defenses are generally impactful. So I think you can kind of do the same thing with injuries for the most part.

Injury prone is not very helpful unless you're talking about someone like Will Fuller. I did cut you off though, Heath. I'm sorry. So by the way, Will Fuller stayed healthy. He just got suspended.

Uh, what were you trying? What were you saying about Lockett and the compromise between per game and whatnot? Because you do have him in your top 10. It doesn't really have a lot to do with the top 10. I just like Tyler Lockett and

DK Metcalf and Russ are going to get a huge percentage of Russell Wilson's past attempts. And I don't think the Seahawks defense is good enough to go back to what Russell Wilson was five years ago. And I can't imagine they want to do that anyway because it's gonna be his last year in Seattle if they do so I just I think they'll stay not what they were the first half of last year but close to what they were for the full year what I was saying with the other thing was just that like we need some sort of compromise between those two numbers

I mean that's why I give them both. People can decide what they want to use. Yeah. And I'll throw one more thing out there. I think part of it, me being lower on lock and Metcalf is relative because our overall projections are pretty similar, but there are a, at least three or four wide receivers ahead of,

well, we know to Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, who I have higher. But I think DJ more Robert Woods Woods, and Cooper Cupp, at least I'm all higher on than Heath. And so they, two of them move Metcalf down a couple spots in addition to Julio and Ridley. So I think that might be it as well.

I'm just, I'm a little higher on a couple of other guys too. Okay, I'm going to give you guys 10 seconds each on our next topic. And we're going to take a break. And then we're going to finish with your emails and your Apple podcast questions. Literally 10 seconds. Heath, you are very low on Hunter Henry and Johnnie Smith in your projections.

Chris is much higher. Chris has them 9th and 11th, respectively, Henry and Smith. You have them 24th and 23rd. I do think that the Patriots are going to throw the ball more, but I don't think Hunter Henry and Johnnie Smith are Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and Cam Newton is not Tom Brady. And I don't think there's enough volume to support both,

and they're both basically getting the same deal. Oh, sorry, that was supposed to be... You were out of time. Chris, go ahead, 10 seconds. I have Johnnie and Henry leading the team in target share at 19 and 20 percent respectively Heath has them at 13 even with those high target shares they are outside of my top 10 and they'll likely be lower than the consensus but yeah okay that was good that was very good okay Heath's face

says it all uh we're gonna take a break during the break we're going to discuss if we are all wearing the same color shirt. Very, very similar. We'll let you know right after this. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks,

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Welcome back. The Final Four is on Saturday. You may be wondering, how do I actually watch these games? Go to the CBS Sports app on your connected TV or phone. And from there, you'll see every tournament game available to watch. Think of it like a gateway to all the action. So download the CBS Sports app now so you never miss a minute of the NCAA tournament. Apple podcast questions.

Thank you all for your reviews. We really appreciate it. Keep them coming. We'll read them on the show once a week. This is from Core2186. I am the commissioner of a league going on season five together, but we want to spice it up a bit and make it a keeper league. Unsure what a first year

keeper league should look like. Thoughts? One keeper, two keepers, only rookies, which rounds, etc. Heath? If you want to dip your toe in, I would say two keepers, no round cost.

You can't keep anybody drafted in the first two rounds. Okay. That works? Yeah. This is from Matt from a city who's lost the NFL twice.

St. Louis. Oakland. Oakland. Yeah. Oakland. I think St. Louis has lost it twice. Have they?

They lost the Rams and the Cardinals, right? That makes sense. Speaking of St. Louis Cardinals, happy opening day, everybody.

12 PPR Superflex Dynasty League. I need a quarterback, a running back, and a top-tier wide receiver. Okay. I have 101, 102, and 110. Remember, it's Superflex, so he's taking Lawrence. Who should I start at 102 and 110? He needs a quarterback, which he'll be taking care of,

a running back, and a top-tier wide receiver. I would say, a running back, and a top-tier wide receiver. I would say target a running back and a top-tier wide receiver. You're going running back at two, and probably Harris. I think most likely the number one running back will make the same mistake we did last year, and it's going to be whoever the

Falcons take. Now, can you say, actually take a wide receiver with the second pick? Figure, by the time you get to the third pick, you'll have definitely two running backs off the board. That's four with Lawrence and the

wide receiver you take at the second pick. Maybe four more quarterbacks in a super flex league? And then you might get the fourth best running back in the draft which would be really good i'm not 100 sure it shouldn't just be two quarterbacks at the top he says he needs quarterbacks and so you know if you could get lawrence and if justin fields ends up with the 49ers like i would gladly take those two guys at the top of the draft.

And you figure in a super flex league, you're probably going to have one of Devante Smith, Jamar Chase, or Jalen Waddell falling to you at 10. Possible. All right, those are some options for you. From TitansFan8830, 10-team super flex, I have 101 in this year's rookie draft.

Burrow is my QB1. Locke 10 team super flex. I have one Oh one in this year's rookie draft. Burrow is my QB one lock is my super flex. Do I take Trevor Lawrence or try to trade the pick for a quarterback? I'm not too excited about drew lock. I think trading down, if you can get to like three or four and see if you can get a quarterback as well, like a quarterback who you could start this year. Um,

you know, like a Ryan Tannehill or something. I'm digging Lawrence. Okay. That's fine. And I have no problem with it. No name on this one, but hello,

Jesse, Walter, Gus, and Mike breaking bad. How early would you feel comfortable taking Kyle Pitts in the rookie drafts in tight end premium leagues? It is PPR with tight end premium.

I feel like he's going to be overdrafted no matter what. Rookie tight ends. I know he's special, he's different, but rookie tight ends are almost never good. But I think in a tight end premium, it's still got to be top three.

I wrote those exact words Chris said in the opposite order in my Dynasty mailbag today about how rookie tight ends are almost never good, but Kyle Fitz is different. But the thing is, the most different tight end ever,

and I think this is including Kyle Pitts. Vernon Davis is the most different tight end of all time, just in terms of physical ability. There's been nobody like him ever. He wasn't that good his first couple of seasons. OJ Howard? I don't remember but he didn't average

90 yards per game in the SEC and score one and a half touchdowns per game the SEC is like a defensive joke in college football we just saw the two best seasons ever LSU and Alabama are probably the two best offenses

in college football history. So I'm not a buff, but it's not like the SEC of old. Well, yeah, like Vernon Davis had a 95th percentile dominator rating. He averaged 17 yards per catch. It was amazing. Kyle Pitts has literally,

like they had to change the metric for wingspan at tight end because he has now the longest wingspan ever at tight end. Longest wingspan ever in the combine era for a wide receiver or a tight end. He had a lower college dominator rating than Vernon Davis did, for what it's worth. By the way, are we all wearing the same color? Very similar. It looks like it. Some sort of worth. By the way, are we all wearing the same color? Very similar.

It looks like it. Some sort of gray. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Very similar. Okay. Emails. This is from Kevin.

Oh, baseball email. Dear Juan, Stephen, Max, and Victor. Now it's on to football. 12-team PPR league. I can keep one player at the end of each year. One quarterback league with two flex spots. Deontay Johnson in the eighth or Dallas Goddard in the 15th round?

It'd be Deontay for me. Yeah, I'm going to go Deontay too. From Garrett, who wins this trade? 12-team Dynasty, half PPR. Team A, Juju Smith-Schuster and pick 104. Or team B, Gus Edwards,

Michael Thomas, and 205. I know my answer. I want to hear Chris's answer. My gut reaction is Michael Thomas. Just he's no, I guess in dynasty is 28, isn't he? Yeah.

Yeah. I probably go a juju and, and 104. Yeah. I think the go A, Juju and 104. Yeah, I think the difference between 104 and 205 is quite a bit bigger than the difference between Thomas and Juju. From Miles, 12-team PPR Dynasty League. I traded George Kittle.

I traded, yeah, George Kittle after his injury for Evan Ingram and the 103 pick this year. I fell short of the championship, but is 103 too high for Kyle Pitts? He has Evan Ingram, but is 103 too high? Do your drafts after the draft first off. Hopefully all you people are and we're just talking about potential because there is that little minor sliver thing where Pitts could get classified as a wide receiver by the team that drafts him and that would be not

great. But I think it's like if he's a top 10 or 11 pick and you don't hate the fit and he's a tight end, I think he's fine at number three. I think it's fine. Okay, from Scott. Half PPR, Keeper League.

Keep three. Josh Allen, Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Stefan Diggs, Darren Waller, Chris Godwin. With no penalties, I would go Kamara, Diggs, and Waller.

I'd go Kamara, Taylor, Diggs. Okay, from Matt. Dear Ray, Terrell, Peter, and Bart. That's Ravens linebackers, right? Oh. Well done. Yeah.

I thought there was commissioners. I couldn't think of what commissioner was named Terrell. That's what I was thinking, too. 12-team dynasty. Wait. I don't want to embarrass myself, so I'm not going to say it out loud. 12-team dynasty PPR league.

Should I trade James Robinson and Keenan Allen for T. Higgins and Ezekiel Elliott? James Robinson and Keenan Allen for Higgins and Zeke. He's trying to win this year. Trying to win this year? He says he feels close to competing. Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think... I i mean we'll see what

the what the jaguars do in the draft but if they don't bring in anyone else i think robinson and alan is better than higgins and zeke um i'm i'm gonna reverse myself like i think keenan's quite a bit better than higgins this year but for dynasty purposes, I have them pretty much back-to-back, and I've got Zeke slightly ahead of Robinson, so I'm going to go the Higgins-Zeke side, although I don't think it's necessarily going to make you better this year. Yeah, I wasn't

listening to the dynasty part. Sorry, Adam. I wasn't trying to be rude. That's how I am. It's by my nature. By the way, Peter is Peter Boulware. I don't feel that stupid for not remembering that, but of course, Peter Boulware. Okay, so I got that right. I thought, I was starting to think I was the dumb one.

No, no, I just couldn't think of who Peter was, but Peter Boulware. All right, that's going to do it for today's show. Thank you so much for your emails and your Apple podcast questions. Great stuff. Really appreciate it. Sorry we spent so much time on cereal,

but also not sorry about that. We will talk to you, unless there's breaking news, we will talk to you on Monday. Check out Fantasy Football Today in 5 for some NFL Draft wide receiver prospect profiles. We talked about Smith and Waddle and Chase, and then that was on Thursday's show. On Friday's show, we talked about a few more awesome ones.

So enjoy that. For Chris and Heath, I'm Adam. Have a great weekend. See you.