Fantasy Football Today - QB and RB Bounceback Candidates! (04/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: April 12, 2021

Who are our favorite 2021 bounceback candidates? Whether we go the injury route with someone like Saquon Barkley (2:15) or the performance route with someone like Matt Ryan (5:30), we have plenty of names to discuss and much to debate. Is Ezekiel Elliott (10:40) an easy bounceback candidate or are his best days behind him? ... The QB bounceback discussion starts with Lamar Jackson (19:05). Will he improve as a passer? Will it matter? We also debate Jackson vs. Kyler Murray and Josh Allen within this discussion. And then we move on to Matthew Stafford, Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Wentz (30:50) ... At RB (36:10), is it possible for Josh Jacobs to "bounce back"? Depends on how you look at it! And we debate Joe Mixon vs. Miles Sanders (42:40) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow the FFT in 5 podcast on Apple, Spotify, Google, or wherever you listen to FFT. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @CTowersCBS, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ Want winning picks each morning in under 10 minutes? Follow 'The Early Edge: A Daily SportsLine Betting Podcast' on Apple, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever else you listen to podcasts. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Bounce back Back Canada. It's a great way to get some value in your drafts. Maybe it was Aaron Rodgers for you last year. Maybe Adam Thielen. Maybe Brandon Cooks.

These guys helped you win championships. Adam A's are here with Full House, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, Chris Towers to talk about some of our favorite bounce backs. And guys, we'll dismiss. No, they're not going to bounce back in 2021. Uh, hi guys, who had the best weekend?

Would anybody like to share? So you're definitely Danny. Um, I'm trying to think, I don't know that we have an uncle Jesse. Who is the shortly Dave? You're drinking barbecue master on full house. I feel like I can be an uncle Jesse. I play, Who is the surly beer drinking barbecue master on Full House?

I feel like I can be an Uncle Jesse. I've got guitars in the background. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Chris is... I also play guitar. I want to be Uncle Jesse. We could just count your facial hair. The main thing about Jesse, besides the music, was how obsessed he was with his hair.

I'm pretty obsessed with my hair. I do have a hot comb to straighten my beard, so I am pretty obsessed with my facial hair. There you go. I am not going to be Uncle Jesse. It doesn't matter how hard I lobby here. All right, I'm Danny Tanner. That is not who I wanted to be at this stage of my life.

You might be Michelle. Oh. All right, guys. How rude. Cut it out. Let's get going here. I just wanted to share a quick movie recommendation. I watched A Quiet Place.

It is awesome. It's been a few years now. I should have watched it earlier. But if you want a great movie on a Friday or Saturday night, watch A Quiet Place. I also watched a movie I haven't seen in a long time. Naked Gun. Oh, very funny.

It's playing on MLB Network. It was one of my favorite movies when I was younger. I haven't seen in a long time. Naked Gun. Oh, very funny. It's playing on MLB Network. It was one of my favorite movies when I was younger. I haven't watched it in 20 years. I tuned in and it still gave me some serious belly laughs. Excellent movie to cheer you up. Great sport. More of a sports movie than Jerry Maguire. Who are your favorite bounce back candidates?

Let's go to Heath. Heath, favorite bounce back candidate. I am the perfect person to go for this because I was definitely the person you were putting an email list together with over the weekend to discuss for this. I would say, are we counting injured

players? If you want, sure. If that's easier for you right now, I'll stop you. I would think it would have to be Saquon Barkley. I think Christian McCaffrey. Right. If you're going to add players, that would be the the obvious bounce back. Oh, you guys are really spitting hot fire right now.

Well, Saquon Barkley, let's not forget 15 carries for six yards in week one. That's the thing. Christian McCaffrey was good when he played. Saquon Barkley was was terrible and hurt. Yeah, he had six catches in that game, too. Then he got hurt after four carries and 28 yards at Chicago in week two. All right, that's fine. So, Saquon Barkley, let's frame

it like this. In his rookie season, he averaged 18.3 PPR fantasy points per game. That seems low. Is that non-PPR? Let me just double check on that. Yeah, I think that's non-PPR. Sorry. So I'll get his PPR. But he went down almost four points per game in non-PPR from his rookie year to his second season. Not last year, but his second season when he missed three games. Let me get it right. Okay. 24 points per game PPR as a rookie. 18.8 in his second season, which is great, but it's not as good

as it was as a rookie. So what does he bounce back to, Heath? Does he bounce back to closer to the rookie form or closer to the second season? I mean, I haven't projected at almost exactly what he was his second season. I think I've got him at 18.3 PPR fantasy points per game. What that will probably be determined by is touchdown success, more likely. How good or awful is the Giants' offense? But I think you should expect a top five season, top four season from Barkley

and knowing that there is number one overall potential. Okay. And so based on what he averaged in his second season, that would have been good enough to be RB six per game last year. Oh no. RB Antonio Williams. Hate Antonio Williams. RB five. Yeah.

I got him as RB four per game based on one game week 17, 63 yards, two touchdowns. Um, yeah. So anyway, RB five for Barkley based on one game week 17 63 yards two touchdowns um yeah so anyway rb5 for barkley based on what he averaged and 2019 i think it's also worth saying that that average is influenced by the fact that he left a game early and only had 10 rushing yards that season maybe we should just factor that in remember he was dealing with a high ankle sprain. He came back from after only three games and

clearly wasn't himself in that 2019 season for a long stretch, but down the stretch, he was awesome. He opened the season with a pair of 100-yard games. So, you know, he was when he was right, he was even better than his overall numbers

in 2018. Okay. How many dudes have 2000 totally yard potential? How many? Honestly, four or five, right? He's one of them though. He's gotta be one of them still. Yeah.

Okay. Okay. Dave, how about you? Favorite bounce back? I think one of the guys that I will count on as a bounce back player who I think I can draft really late this year is Matt Ryan and Atlanta. Don't expect the Falcons to, um, the biggest splash they can make it running back at this point would be to draft Najee Harris. It would be great if they did, he would help them out, but I still don't think this offense is going to turn into what we saw from Tennessee. Everybody's worried about that. I don't

think it's going to happen. I think Arthur Smith sees what he has at quarterback and at wide receiver, and I think he's going to lean on that more so than the run game with an inexperienced rookie or a veteran like Mike Davis. So I think Matt Ryan's got a chance to have a pretty good year. Don't know what the schedule is. Don't know who his week one opponent is. But if he has a good schedule to begin the season, I have no problem waiting and waiting and waiting on draft day. Make Falcons don't have Derrick Henry. That's to get that out of the way first. That's the obvious thing. But when you're comparing Matt Ryan over the last two years to Ryan Tannehill, is, is there a noticeable,

is Matt Ryan definitely better than Ryan Tannehill? When you're comparing AJ Brown to Calvin Ridley, that's pretty much a wash at this point now, right? We're talking Jono Smith and Hayden Hurst. I don't like the one difference is the Falcons have one more elite wide receiver,

but the weapons that he has in the pack, he had an elite wide receiver. He had a fine tight end. He had a good quarterback in Tennessee. If he goes, if the goat does not go

and get nausea Harris, or we don't draft running back in the first two rounds, then I will kind of come more around on this idea, but I'm not, I'm just not sure. Like he had really good. He also had Derrick Henry. Well,

yeah. And I would also say like, I would also say like, has Brian Tannehill been as good or better than Matt Ryan over the last two seasons? Statistically, he has been on a per pass basis, but Ryan Tannehill has also never played at this level before outside of the context of a very low volume Tennessee Titans passing offense with a guy in A.J.

Brown, especially who has been arguably one of the most elite playmaking receivers over the last two seasons. So when you're comparing those two, yes, Ryan Tannehill has been amazing over the last two seasons, but he's never been a 550 pass attempt, high-end quarterback as well. So Matt Ryan is someone... I think the Falcons would prefer not to throw the ball 600 times. But I think every team in the NFL would probably prefer not to throw the ball 600 times. But they've done that seven of the last nine seasons. Right, that's what I'm saying.

I just don't think the context is going to allow the Falcons. Maybe they don't throw the ball 600 times, but I would bet 550 plus is much more likely than. Yeah, I think the thing is, Matt Ryan, with his complete lack of anything in the running game, if he throws 560 passes, he's probably not going to be a top 12 quarterback. Yeah. I think that's fair. Right. How close will he be to number 12?

Will it be enough for him to be a late round pick and still pay off? I guess that's kind of another way to look at it. I'll just say it's seven games with Julio Jones. Jones played nine games. He left two of them early. So we're razoring this. In the seven games, he didn't leave 35% or fewer of the snaps.

Matt Ryan was on pace for almost 5,200 yards, 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions. He averaged 25.6 points per game and six points per pass in touchdown leagues. Those are massive numbers, but I did talk about this a little bit on FFT in five. They also coincided with the Cowboys and the Seahawks, uh,

and some very easy, uh, competition. So I don't know. And Minnesota was one of those games. So I don't know if, uh, if it had more to do with the competition or more to do with Julio Jones,

because you know, there's just a lot to dive into there, but, um, now let's wrap it up. Final thoughts on, on Matt Ryan. I'm not saying that he's going to be a top 12 quarterback otherwise i'd rank him as such i'm just saying that he's somebody that

could be a good streamer to begin the year and he's a good bounce back candidate he is a guy that can get you i was going to say 5 000 yards i'm going to say close to 5 000 yards there aren't a lot of those quarterbacks 17 games you're saying games, you're saying? Or per 16 games? I was going to say, his pace last year puts him at 4,900 in 17 games. Right, so he should get to 5,000 in 17 games. Provided that everybody stays healthy and provided that the run game doesn't completely take over there. Okay, Chris, we got Barkley from Heath. We got Matt Ryan from Dave.

Go for it. I was muted. I was going to say Robert Woods and Cooper Cup because I seem to be drafting both of them in just about every mock draft we do. I think they're going to bounce back in a big way. I'm kind of surprised

there isn't more optimism about them given what I think everyone agrees is a pretty big upgrade at quarterback. Something Dave said, how many running backs have 2,000-yard potential? Well, that makes me think maybe the answer should be Ezekiel Elliott, who is kind of a victim of the fantasy community's shiny new toy obsession because last season, like five games into the season, we were like,

all right, that's it. Tony Pollard, definitely a better player than Ezekiel Elliott. Now that's done. We know it now. And everybody wanted to see Tony Pollard take over for Ezekiel. Well,

you know, it's been pretty good in his career last season. He was playing in less than ideal circumstances in an offense that I think, on the whole, will probably bounce back just by dint of Dak Prescott staying healthy. And when you're looking at a guy with a career 4.5 yards per attempt, 4.5 in 2019, 4.7 in 2018, he averaged 4.0 last season. He's probably going to be like 4.5 yards per attempt next season.

And he's probably still going to get 18 to 20 carries per game. And he's probably still one of the few running backs with 2000 all purpose yard potential. So our total yard potential. So I'm going to go with the Zico Elliott who seems to be slipping, you know, towards the back half of the first round. And yeah, I still think he can absolutely be one of the elite running backs in fantasy. Anyone disagree?

A little disappointed because I was just going to poo-poo all over Robert Woods as a bounce back candidate. And Ezekiel Elliott's a fantastic choice, who I think is an excellent candidate. Robert Woods is also, to be clear, a fantastic bounce-back candidate. Robert Woods, in 2020, tied his career high in receptions, set a career high with eight touchdowns,

and scored the second-most fantasy points he's ever scored in his career. Right. Cup is the better one. I was kind of getting juiced to talk about Cooper Cup and thinking about how he'd work with Matthew Stafford, and scored the second most fantasy points he's ever scored in his career. Right. Cup is the better one. I was kind of getting juiced to talk about Cooper Cup and thinking about how he'd work with Matthew Stafford, and I think the philosophy was there, and you were going in that direction, Chris, until you made a hard left down Ezekiel Elliott Boulevard and took us that way instead,

which, I mean, who's going to disagree with you on Zeke? He's going to be 26 years old. I think lots of people would. Well, those people are probably going to make a you on Zeke? He's going to be 26 years old. The offense is going to be better. Well, I, the, those people are probably going to make a mistake on draft day. Well,

I think he's absolutely got that shot to get you 2000 total yards and a lot of touchdowns, but you know, it's just like everything. It's, it's almost like everything that happened with Saquon, that offensive line has got to be up to snuff. The quarterback play has to be a plus in Dallas. It wasn't last year.

It was like a D for Dalton. So I think that things have to go right for Zeke in order for him to get close to that potential, but it's shaping up that way already. It looks like Dak is going to be there. It looks like the offensive line is going to be just fine. And I'm not sure if Zeke regressed to the point of no return last year to where Tony Pollard deserved that role. The Cowboys obviously don't think so because they kept them. I did dive into Zeke. I figured we were going to talk about him.

So there are some things I want to bring up. First of all, with Dak Prescott, the first five games of the year, Tony Pollard had almost no role. He was very uninvolved. And he didn't start getting involved until the game after when Zeke fumbled twice. If we all remember Monday Night Football against the Cowboys, he fumbled twice in the first half. And that's when Tony Pollard's role increased. So the last, I think, 10 games of the season for Zeke or nine

games or something like that, Zeke was only averaging about 15 and a half carries per game. His role was reduced and Tony Pollard's did increase. But I would think clean slate, start the season, Zeke's, you know, pound the rock with him. But keep in mind, the fumbles were a big issue last year. So that's one strike against him. I tweeted this yesterday. I don't think anybody really cared, but I think it's interesting at the very least.

In 2016 through 2018, first three years of his career, he had one big run. That's a 20-plus yard carry every 29 carries the last two years, every 78 carries. So it's possible that it's because of his offensive line. It's possible that he's got a ton of tread on the tires and he's losing some explosion. And then you talk about the offensive line. Tyron Smith has missed time with injuries five years in a row. He's over 30. Their offensive line has aged. Lyle Collins is obviously young. He'll be back. It's going to be a lot better than it was last year, but I don't know that it's this

used to be the best offensive line of football, basically. I don't think it'll be that again. I don't know that'll be that again. a game or something like that. I don't know really what to make of that, but I think the fear is that you're getting him that this might be his Todd Gurley year, that he might... I think people might feel like Ezekiel Elliott is almost done. That's just my perception. He is RB7 and ADP right now on NFC,

but I could see a case where people are kind of skeptical about how good he is at this point. I guess part of it for me is that I don't really care how good running backs are for the most point. Most part, I think it's all about role and like, it's a lot easier to look good in the Tony Pollard role than it is to

look good in the Ziki. I'm not talking about Pollard so much. I'm just comparing, but I just mean that the general perception that he's lost, it was also, well, look how much better Tony Pollard looks in the offense. And,

you know, Pollard, I think what makes me feel confident about Elliot is Pollard got the one start. And he had a very good fantasy day, but as a rusher, didn't he had the one like 40 yard run at the end of the game and basically hadn't done anything before that.

Right. And then Elliot came back from missing one game towards the end of the game and basically hadn't done anything before that. Right. And then Elliot came back from missing one game towards the end of the season and got 41 targets and, and carries between the two games. So I, I just, I think he's going to have such a big role that I don't know, there will be times when Tony Pollard looks better because he's on the

field on a third and seven and get to carry. And it's easier to pick up six yards and look like you have a lot of burst in that situation. But I generally think Elliot's still going to get the kind of workload that's going to make him an elite fantasy option. All right, let's do a quick look around the NFL. Not a lot of news and notes, but before we do that, the pressure continues to mount as the world's top teams compete

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Go to ParamountPlus.com. Try it for free. Also been binging the Discovery Channel documentaries on Paramount Plus+, which is awesome. You should get it. Julian Edelman, unlikely to play all 16 games, got a knee condition. Well, we know that.

But according to the Boston Herald, he's unlikely to play all 16 games. And we just really don't know how much he's going to play at all in 2021. So we'll keep an eye on that. Don't draft him. Some NFL draft rumors. Jerry Jones apparently loves Kyle Pitts. Washington

really likes Trey Lance. I think tomorrow we can get more into NFL draft rumors. And we're also going to talk Dynasty tomorrow with Heath and Jamie. So we've got some bounce-back candidates at each position. I'll kind of go through them. And you tell me if you buy the premise, first of all, that they are bounce-back candidates. And if you think

they're going to bounce back. So let's start at quarterback. And Dave, I'll give you the first word. Quarterback is Lamar Jackson. He was QB 10 last year. He was QB 1 the year before. It's hard not to buy this premise here. What do you think he bounces back to? Does he bounce back?

I think he can bounce back and be better than QB 10. I guess I have a hard time believing that he will be better than the triumvirate that is Mahomes, Allen, and Murray. But he could get close to there. Combination of him being a better passer and the Ravens letting him prove it is pretty much what's going to hold him back.

Here's how I view Lamar Jackson from last year. the Ravens letting him prove it is pretty much what's going to hold him back. Cause I think here's, here's how I view Lamar Jackson from last year. I feel like the first chunk of the season, the Ravens were trying to get them going as a passer, letting him run a little bit less. And then by the second half of the season, they're like, look, he is what he is.

Let him run like crazy. We need to win games. We need to get into the playoffs. And that's when we saw the better half of Lamar Jackson. I don't know if they're going to entirely say, all right, just let the lion do what he does and just let him run all over the place. And that's that. I think they're still going to try and work on him as a passer. They added Sammy Watkins. That's a reliable short area target. I would imagine that Watkins will stay in that versatile inside

outside role like he was in Kansas City. Not that he's going to be great for fantasy. He's somebody else that you really shouldn't draft. But he will help be the replacement for Willie Sneed, plus a little bit more for the Ravens. I think that will help Lamar Jackson. His touchdown rate's probably not going to go up. It was at 7% after it was 9% the year before.

And his fantasy production is going to be tied heavily to the running, which he didn't do a lot of, like I said, in the first chunk of the season. So I think that he'll be better. I think he's going to be worth taking as a top five fantasy quarterback. And I think he's got a chance to return that value. And Heath, you have him too, right? Yeah, I think he comes almost all the way back. And again, this kind of goes to what we talked about, I think, with Mahomes.

But it's just like he was so much better two years ago than Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. And then he fell off a little bit, and several quarterbacks had years unlike anything we've seen before. But I just don't really think that he showed us his true colors last year and also josh allen and kyler murray are only moving in this positive direction and so i would prefer lamar to both of those guys i think he frankly has more upside i still think there's a good chance that he's going to uh throw a little bit more but if he doesn't, he's actually better when he runs than when he throws anyway. Right. I was about to say, I think we want him to run more.

I don't think we want him to throw more. We want him to continue to put up those rushing numbers. And just to make it clear, last five games of 2020, 30.6 was his fantasy point average. That would have been number one last year. So if he had somehow kept that toward pace up for 16 games, I mean, it would have been 2019 all over again. Can he do that again in 2021? Yeah, I'm going to say no. I'm going to say that he cannot keep that pace up and that the team will try and get him to throw a little bit more, run a little bit less, try and conserve him a little bit. And then maybe they do what they did last year, and that's unleash him toward the end

of the year. But I think a top five five fantasy quarterback i think he's a very good and reliable bounce back candidate i don't think you should look at last year and and say well this is what he is he's a top 10 fantasy quarterback that's not it and i do think it's worth acknowledging that you know josh allen for sure and probably kyler murray are both likely to regress i think it's more likely for josh allen because he was so good as a passer, whereas Kyler was still kind of mediocre as a passer. And if you're asking which one has the most upside of that three, I think it's probably Kyler just because he could give you Lamar Jackson

rushing and take that step forward as a passer that just because the Ravens aren't likely to throw the ball 560 times like the Cardinals did last season, he doesn't have the same step forward as a passer. Yeah, I've got Jackson as my number four QB. I have him projected for six fewer points than Kyler Murray as number two. So, yeah, I fully expect him to have a bounce back. What about this? What happens if Buffalo adds Najee Harris or Travis Etienne

or if Arizona does that? Is that enough, Chris? Because he's already got Lamar J. He's already in love with Lamar at number two. Is that enough for you to pull back on Kyler or Josh Allen and to move Lamar Jackson ahead? It certainly might be. I think it's less likely for Kyler because, I mean,

Kenyon Drake, for all his flaws last season, had double-digit touchdowns. Whereas if the Bills added one of the big-name running backs, my reaction would probably just be to not like that running back because I think the Bills are still going to give Josh Allen, he's still going to be a goal-line guy. I think they're still going to be a pass first team. Whereas Kyler Murray, you kind of have a big running back role

already baked into the assumption for Arizona because that's what they've done over the last couple of seasons. So it wouldn't change things entirely. But for me, they're all so close anyway that any number of factors could change how I view them. Maybe the better factor is whichever one you get last. Am I the only one that isn't sure that there's a major difference in terms of passing ability, passing efficiency ability between these three? It feels like we believe that Kyler Murray and Josh Allen have turned into much better passers

than Lamar Jackson. Kyler Murray is still a pretty deeply mediocre quarterback. I'm going to get into this every time we talk about Kyler Murray. Look what he did before his injury. He was so much better than he was with his full season

stats. And he had DeAndre Hopkins and Stephon Diggs is on Buffalo. Who's on Baltimore? That's fine. I'm not making an argument one way or the other. Kyler Murray, he was fine before the shoulder injury. He was on pace for 4,200

yards and 30 touchdowns. Is your argument that Kyler Murray's more talented passer because he has DeAndre Hopkins? No, I'm saying thatler Murray's more talented passer because he has DeAndre Hopkins? No, I'm saying that he'll be a better passer because he has DeAndre Hopkins. I'm not going to say who's more talented. I don't know, but

I'm going to say that I would trust his passing more than I would trust Jackson's. I would just say in terms of statistically, Lamar for their careers has been the best passer and Lamar's best season as a passer in terms of efficiency is better than what we've seen from Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Right. And he had a, right. But first of all, I reject that argument because Kyler,

because Kyler Murray's had two years and one of them was his rookie season. So I I'm not judging quarterback based on his rookie season. And two, I think that Lamar Jackson's efficiency was kind of ridiculous and not going to happen again. And I don't know. Who do you think is a better passer? But I trust the guy who has DeAndre Hopkins. That's all.

And like you always say, the fewer pass attempts, right, the better the efficiency is going to be. That doesn't mean if you gave – how many pass attempts did you say the Cardinals had last year? 560 or whatever? 558. 558? You gave Lamar Jackson 558 passes? You think he would be as efficient as Kyler Murray? I don't. I mean,

Kyler Murray wasn't that efficient. He was more efficient than Lamar. He was better than, he was, before his shoulder injury, he was crap after his shoulder injury. You're talking about one-fourth of his NFL career. I'm talking about one-half of his second season with DeAndre Hopkins.

Which is also one-fourth of his career. Yeah, but his first year, he was a rookie. Lamar Jackson didn't do anything as a rookie except for run the ball. Well, that's not true. He threw the ball better than Kyler Murray. That's the thing. Did he throw the ball better than Kyler Murray

or did they run this gadget offense? Well, I guess that was... They're both running gadget offense. Noler Murray. That's the thing. Did he throw the ball better than Kyler Murray or did they run this gadget offense? Well, I guess that was... They're both running gadget offense. No, no. Arizona's offense was... Can I not finish my point? I'm just saying that it's the presence of DeAndre Hopkins. I agree. And it's... I'm not...

I don't care about Kyler Murray's rookie season. And you cared, I think, too much about Kyler Murray's rookie season. And then he took a think, too much about Kyler Murray's rookie season. And then he took a huge step in year two because that's what quarterbacks do. Both Lamar Jackson's second and his third seasons were more efficient passing than Kyler Murray's second season. So forget about the rookie seasons. Lamar's been better.

Yeah, but he's been better. He barely throws the ball. He barely throws the ball. You always say that. A guy's efficiency is going to drop as he runs more, as he throws more. All that, you know? So I just don't, like, put it this way. And efficiency wasn't even what I was talking about.

What I meant was that Kyler Murray's going to have better passing stats. Right, I agree with that. And because of DeAndre Hopkins. And 4,200 yards and 30 touchdowns. That's what he was on pace for before his shoulder injury, before he re-aggravated his shoulder injury. And it was basically a shell of himself. He's going to throw for a lot more yards.

I'm not sure he'll throw more touchdowns. Well, that would be, that would require a very high touchdown rate from more Jackson, which he's had. And I, you know, I don't really know what we're arguing for arguing skill or stats here.

Yeah. If we're arguing fantasy, you're missing, you know, half the boat here because these guys are rushers as well. Yeah. If we're arguing fantasy, you're missing, you know, half the boat here because these guys are rushers as well. Yeah.

Well, I think Lamar's definitely the best rusher. If you're going to race them as rushers, yes. Lamar's easily the best guy to put up big rushing numbers. He is, but I would also point out

that Kyler Murray was on pace for almost 1,100 rushing yards in those before the injury. The touchdowns were wild for Kyler. I wasn't going to bring that up,

but he was on pace for 18 rushing touchdowns, but I know that's not sustainable. And I wonder if that changes after what happened last year with the injury. And they say in Arizona, we've got to do something to protect Kyler Murray so he doesn't run all over the place. And I mean, that offense is poo if he gets hurt.

Well, the problem is, if you make Kyler Murray a pocket passer, you may be drafting a quarterback in the career. Sure, but they've got to have a better balance, whereas Baltimore probably has realized we're going to live and die with Lamar as a playmaker running downfield.

Arizona might try and rein that in a little bit. I think Buffalo might try and rein that in a lot. Since nobody ever likes to say these things, except for me, I'll just go ahead and say it i think kyler murray is a better passer than lamar jackson okay you like the way the ball looks coming out of kyler murray's hand more than lamar jackson's actually i like the way the ball looks coming out of lamar jackson's hands quite a bit i just don't like where it ends up sometimes yeah

right last season you know or especially early on when they were trying to throw the ball with Lamar Jackson. There were so many plays where it was like especially between him and Marquise Brown where it was like they were off by a half a yard. Yep, and they figured that out in the second half of the season. Maybe that was the result of you know, limiting Lamar Jackson's exposure as a passer and that helped him be a more efficient passer and a more effective deep ball thrower. But early on, him and Marquise Brown were so close to figuring it out, and that's why I kept making the argument that Marquise Brown was about to figure it out,

and then I finally gave up on him about a week before he actually did figure it out. Until he started scoring all kinds of touchdowns. Yeah, and hitting on those long plays. So, you know, I think the thing comes down to Kyler Murray has more upside just because he's probably going to throw the ball 120

times more while having, you know, the second best rushing production in the NFL for a quarterback. So, you know, that's why I have him ranked a little higher, but I think both can be very good passers. I think both can be very good passers. I think both could be really poor passers. But you're drafting both for the rushing either way.

Okay, more bounce back candidates. Matthew Stafford, 2019, he was top three per game. Last year, he was about 20th per game, 19th. His ADP right now, Matthew Stafford, is QB 10. He's obviously on a new team. Ben Roethlisberger, he wasn't that bad at the end of the day through 33 touchdowns, but bad in the second half and lowest yards per attempt in his career by far.

Carson Wentz had a horrible season. Jameis Winston has to bounce back from not playing, basically. So Winston's separate. But between Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Wentz, Dave, who are you most confident in bouncing back, Stafford, Roethlisberger, or Wentz? Stafford. Okay. Who are you second most confident in? Because that was probably easy. Yeah. I think I have Roethlisberger ranked ahead of Wentz, but it's on shaky ground. Could very easily put Roethlisberger behind Wentz. How are the Steelers going to change their offense?

What are they going to do with Roethlisberger and his old arm? I'm kind of nervous that it's going to be the same dog and pony show that we saw last year. Lots of dinking and dunking and them trying to figure out a way to just keep the chains moving, get into the red zone, have Roethlisberger make a play, have some running back make a play, and that's it. I mean, he's lucky in that he's got four solid targets that could end up being very good targets. I'm not sure if we're ready to put Deontay Johnson and Chase Claypool and Juju in the hall of very good, but they're certainly capable. And it is going to be

tougher on defenses, but they're not going to be vertical. I think that that makes me nervous as someone who's going to watch the Steelers and expect those guys to put up better numbers than they did last year. Okay. Does anybody think Carson Wentz still has, I'm not going to say top five, but legit top ten potential. Carson Wentz. Yeah, I don't think top five, but I think top ten. I think the top five is too good at this point.

They do too many different things that he can't do, but I think he could bounce back. I'm not expecting it. And I'll stand for Ben Roethlisberger a little bit, I guess. He played 16 games last year and threw for, what, 4,300 yards and 37 touchdowns? And that

was, like, the crappy Ben Roethlisberger? So just a little bit of an uptick in efficiency. We've seen the last two full seasons he's played, they have been just about the most pass-happy offense in football. So far, they've

let James Conner walk and haven't brought in anybody. They brought in Kalen Balazs. Oh, I apologize. And look, in 2021, if he averages four yards per attempt, that's going to double his passing yards. Roth, that's just a little joke about how inefficient he was.

Yeah, right. 6.3 yards per attempt. His previous career low was... I'm sorry I didn't land with you, Heath. For me, at least, and this is, again, he's old enough to where this may not be the case,

but you look at his last five seasons yards per attempt, 8.4, 7.5, 7.6, 7.6, 6.3. I would expect it's going to get better. I expect the Steelers, I think I project the Steelers to lead the NFL in pass attempts. I don't know. That dropped from 7.5 to 6.3. You're missing the year where he hurt his arm and then he had surgery

and then the 6.3 year was his first year back from the surgery i don't know if he's got that same stuff going for him all right let's uh take a break here and get to running backs we talked about barkley and zeke we'll also talk about mixin miles sanders i'll have to tell heath why josh jacobs is a bounce back candidate even he finished. I can already see the look on your face. No, he's not a bounce back. Just drop it, Adam. No, I'm going to tell you exactly why. I don't think you understand what bounce back means.

Because he was so much less efficient. I mean, you're talking per carry and per catch, about a yard worse, both. And he just was saved by touchdowns last year. That's why. Is he a bounce-back candidate? Okay, and Tariq Cohen as well. We'll get to wide receiver and tight end. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

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make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Let's go to running backs here. First of all, Dave, I am disappointed in you for getting on me on the Josh Jacobs thing

when you have injured players on your bounce back list. So I don't think that's fair. It's easier to make the case for Josh Jacobs than an injured player. Josh Jacobs finishes the number eight running back in PPL last year. Was he good? No, no.

He was horribly inconsistent, and his efficiency wasn't great for fantasy. And they added Kenyon Drake, and he's probably not going to bounce back better than RB8 in PPR anyway. So I don't even know why we're spending time talking about somebody who finished with a good season and

I don't know how you bounce back from we're saying that Josh Jacobs had a bad year in 2020. Adam, can you do me a favor? Because you have all this information. Can you give me Josh Jacobs PPR points per game in 2019 and in 2020?

Yes. They're almost identical. What is he going to bounce back to? He's been the same guy. That's the thing. That's where you're wrong. He was not the same guy. He was not the same guy.

If Josh Jacobs rushes the ball 273 times next season, do you think he's only going to have 1065 yards? No, I think he would have more yards. I also think he'd like he will score if he rushes at 273 times. I'm not sure that he'll score 12 touchdowns.

I mean, isn't he just by dint of the amount of carries he gets and how little competition he's going to have near the goal line? Will he though? Yeah, that's the question. I think he's got plenty of competition near the goal line. I don't know what Kenyon Drake's usage is going to be

because I don't think Kenyon Drake is particularly good and I don't know why they signed him. But I don't know. Josh Jacobs is probably in the top five and projected carries i would guess for for heath as well as myself and and for most projections whoa okay well really because that would think no so i think that and i'm not sure i disagree with chris but yeah i think a lot of people feel like Kenyon Drake is going to be... But 270 is a healthy number of carries. In 16?

He did that in 15 games last year. All right, let me actually break it down for you. I'll tell you this. Josh Jacobs, I said it was nearly identical as points per game in PPR. That was actually in non-PPR. In PPR, he was 0.8 per game better in 2020 than he was in 2019.

So there's that. But in terms of carries, each of the last two years, he has been at about 18 to 18 and a half carries per game. And other running backs, when he's been healthy, not just looking at what Devante Booker did for the season, because you get the one game where Jacobs missed or whatever, but when he's been healthy, other running backs have averaged about six carries per game. So he is getting about 75%

of the Raiders' carries. I would think that's less with Kenyon Drake. But my whole premise was this was a guy who had four big games last year and he had six games with six or fewer non-PPR

points, nine or fewer PPR points. He had a lot of really bad games. Yeah. So do you think he will score more PPR fantasy points per game this year than he ever has? No, I don't think he's going to bounce back because of Kenyon Drake. But can he bounce back as a more consistent performer? But be worse. It was, you know, can he bounce back as a more consistent performer? And he was drafted.

You know, look, you say worse. It's not about, it's about his performance. He's not a guy who should be averaging 3.9 yards per carry. They just got rid of their entire offensive line. Yeah, no, I think the answer is no. The answer is no, but I'm just bringing it up. No, I think he absolutely can. I think he's going to play better in 2021

than he did in 2020. I think his yards per attempt is going to be higher. I think his yards per target, he was higher as a rookie as well. I think he's better than he played in 2020. Maybe the touchdown regresses. Maybe any number of things. I think this is your take on running backs.

We just talked about with Ezekiel. It doesn't really matter how good he is. Right. And that's why the situation. I don't know that Josh Jacobs was bad last year. And that's why he averaged 3.9 yards per carry. But I know that his situation is worse than it was last year. It's very worse.

And I can give you a couple of points to why they brought in Kenyon Drake. Number one, Jacobs averaged around two catches per game. They clearly don't view him as a pass catching back out of the backfield. Drake did not do a great job catching the ball out of the backfield last year. In the past, he has. The Raiders have talked about him as a receiving option. That's something that I think he's going to be able to get a leg up on Josh Jacobs pretty quickly. Second of all, short yardage situations. Last year, 16 goal-to-go

carries from three yards or closer from Josh Jacobs. He scored on five of the 16 versus Drake, who had eight out of 19 such carries. It's a 10% increase for Drake versus Jacobs. I'm worried that that's going to be an area that Drake some numbers away from Jacobs and just overall, any carry of three yards or closer anywhere on the field. It was 50% for Josh Jacobs. He was 32 of 63, 50.8%. Excuse me. Whereas Kenyon Drake, 31 conversions of 54 tries. That's almost 60%. So I think the Raiders see that. And that's why they're going to say that Drake is a role player in the offense, but one that's going to take carries and catches away from Jacobs and potentially touchdowns away from Josh Jacobs. He's not a bounce back candidate. He's a bounce out candidate.

I think that's a Kyler Murray stat. Well, yeah, but there's a short yardage situations because Kyler Murray is so... He instills so much fear in the defense. I mean, he was on pace for 18 rushing touchdowns himself before the injury. So I think that's... I said running back talent. I don't really care that much about talent.

That being said, I think Josh Jacobs was much more talented than Kenyon Drake, who... Oh, yeah. Yeah, but Josh Jacobs had... Josh Jacobs had the second highest percentage of his team's carries inside the five, behind only James Robinson. So I just think that's going to come down. It's not like Kenyon Drake's going to be the goal line guy,

but I feel like he'll get some of them. Sure. It's hard to imagine him being better than RB11, but it is not hard to imagine him playing better. Thank you, Chris. I appreciate your help on that. All right, well, here's what we're going to do. So we're going to save wide receiver and tight end for tomorrow.

Um, let's talk about some more running backs in this discussion here. We talked about, oh, mile Sanders. Mile Sanders is a good one. Um, Chris, I'll give you the first word. Well, how about him and Joe Mixon? Joe Mixon, because he had one huge game against Jacksonville, actually finished okay in per-game scoring, but

I think we all were pretty frustrated with him. And Miles Sanders, really, I think he was somewhere around RB18 per game. I'll look that up. Chris, who's got the better chance of bouncing back? Miles Sanders or Joe Mixon? I would say probably Joe Mixon and and Joe Mixon's kind of a really good example of why I don't care all that much about running back talent because I think people have spent

most of his career saying this guy is so good that he has to be a great fantasy player when the situation he's been in hasn't been very good and that's why he's been a pretty i would say every single season of his career he's probably been a disappointment except for maybe 2018 for fantasy um but all of a sudden this situation kind of looks really good uh cincinnati's offensive line is likely to be better, especially if, you know, I think they should do the obvious and take Panay Sewell. Is that how you pronounce his name? Yeah.

That just seems like such an obvious move for them, and I keep seeing them, you know, being linked to Jamar Chase and Kyle Pitts and just take the offensive lineman and figure the rest out later. But with no Gio Bernard, you know, obviously I think they'll bring in someone, but if they don't bring a significant name, this could be the year that he goes from

maxing out at 43 catches in his first four seasons to maybe getting to 55. Not a huge number, but enough that with his likely significant rushing role, I think he could be a top 12 running back and not necessarily a borderline fringy top 12 because somebody has to finish in the top 12.

I think he could actually be... I ran my projections and if I gave him 75 targets, I would have had him as the number 7 RB. So I think there's significant upside for him now in a way that hasn't been there in the past. Heath, who's got a better chance of bouncing back? Miles Sanders. And you pointed out to me

that the Eagles had this and he was by Sanders was 18th and non PPR 20th and PPR per game. The Eagles had the second fewest running back carries in the NFL last year, but Sanders or Mixon, who do you prefer as a bounce back? And in fairness, they may be low on that list again with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. That can influence. If they're going to run a balanced offense and Hurts is going to rush the ball 10 times a game, they're probably going to be towards the bottom of the list in running back carries again. I guess when we talk about Miles Sanders bouncing back, we're talking about him bouncing back to the seven games that he was of his rookie year. I don't think he's probably going to get to there because that was one of the best running backs in fantasy.

You look at what he was on pace for last year, and it was 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns. That seems pretty reasonable. I don't know that I expect him to. I think he'll be good, but he's another one that feels kind of weird in terms of the bounce back. I don't think he's going to give us that seven games, and I think he was better last year than he was his rookie year for fantasy purposes.

It comes down to the passing game. They basically abandoned him in the passing game after a couple of early drops. That was what got me so excited about him was the potential to be a downfield receiver. They basically stopped using him in that role after the Ravens game where he dropped a touchdown. But he did have 18 targets in his last four games, including the playoffs,

and four catches in two of his last three regular season games. Who, Miles Sanders? Yeah. When was that? That was with Hertz. Oh, the fantasy playoffs. Oh, okay. Oh, he had...

Yes, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. He had two of his last three games. I was... The playoffs show a little bit. Yeah, he had 13, I guess, in the last three games. I was the playoff. Yeah. He had 13, I guess in the final three games, but it was a lot of short yardage.

It wasn't, it wasn't the downfield stuff. It was more dump offs. And so, you know, if it's just dump offs and he's like a two and a half catch per, per game guy, I think the chances for a big season are pretty limited,

but I'm hoping that he can earn their trust as a pass catcher again and at least get a few shots down the field. Dave, final word here. I guess I'm trusting Mixon ahead of Sanders just because I think his role will be better than Sanders role. For starters, he's not going to have to share short yardage opportunities with his quarterback. I think Hertz is going to take him, take a couple of touchdowns there.

That's going to hurt mile Sanders. And I can't think, I don't think we can count on mile Sanders as a pass catcher anymore. I think we can't with Nixon. I'm hoping the Bengals do the right thing and improve that offensive line, but they've got a tough schedule. I mean, just by nature of being the team that they are in the AFC North, they're playing Baltimore twice a year, Pittsburgh twice a year, Cleveland twice a year.

It's going to be hard for them to put Mixon in positions to have big games against those teams. And then they've got other tough matchups along the way as well. I think he'll get more touches than Sanders. I think he'll get more catches than Sanders. I think he'll get more catches than Sanders. I think he'll have more goal line opportunities than Sanders. So I will draft Mixon ahead of Sanders, but both of them,

I'm trying real hard not to overrate them. And I'm not ready to say that either one of them belongs as a top 24 pick at this point. Okay. I'd love to get them in the third round. I think we've all be pretty fired up about that. And we should be fired up right now about CBS Sports HQ. March Madness and the Masters may be over,

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