Fantasy Football Today - QB Tiers! Plus Hopkins and Mixon Analysis (07/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 17, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We will eventually get to our quarterback tiers for 2023, but we had big news over the weekend and we'll start the show with Heath's thoughts on DeAndre Hopkins and then we'll get into Joe Mixon (6:28) and the rest of the news. Why is Mixon going to be drafted lower than how he has performed in the previous two seasons? ... Unveiling Heath and Jamey's QB tiers (21:50) starting with a few introductory questions and then the Big Three in Tier 1 (25:05). How big is Tier 2 (26:15)? Does it include Justin Herbert? Do people consider Joe Burrow to be in the first tier? Tier 3 (31:35) is an exciting group that features Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence among others. And Tier 4 (36:45) is kinda boring but you can get a starting QB in here ... Tier 5 (47:10) has some upside with Russell Wilson and Jared Goff. Find out why Wilson profiles as a good bounceback candidate. And then Tier 6 (48:00) is basically everyone else. We'll talk about Sam Howell, Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett and many more ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, my apologies to the quarterbacks in 2023. This is a quarterback tier show, but hey, the Andre Hopkins happened yesterday. Joe Mixon restructured his contract. So quarterback tiers will be talked about, but they will have to wait just a little bit. Welcome in on Monday, July 17th. Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. We'll update you on Draftathon and a chance to get in the podcast league. We'll update you on how to hear the Dynasty podcast, and we'll update you on the quarterback tiers.

And good morning, guys. Jamie, welcome. No, welcome back. How was your week? I talked to you yesterday. I don't know. I'm going to go to Heath. Hey, Heath, what's up?

Hey, Adam. I hope you had a good weekend. What did you do this weekend, Adam? Furniture shopping. It was scary, you know? It was a little sticker shock there. What did you think of the Hopkins news, Heath? What's going on in your fantasy football, DeAndre Hopkins world? It's been a journey because I originally thought, oh, old receiver, changing teams,

run heavy Titans. And then I went and looked at what DeAndre Hopkins did last year on Arizona. He averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game in the four games he played with Kyler. He averaged like 16 fantasy points per game playing with Colt McCoy. 60% of his targets last year came from Colt McCoy or Trace McSorley, and he averaged 1.99 yards per route run. I've been arguing on Twitter about Calvin Ridley versus DeAndre Hopkins this morning. The reason I bring up the yards per route run, Calvin Ridley's career yards per route run is 1.93. He has one season over 1.77. I'm getting more and more excited about DeAndre Hopkins.

Hey. So where do you have him ranked? Because Jamie has him 21-ish, something like that, 22, somewhere around there. What about you? 19. Oh oh the high guy okay but do you have him ranked ahead of Calvin Ridley two spots ahead of Calvin Ridley but behind Christian Kirk cuz you're still Kirk over Ridley yes okay

who should be drafted first guys DeAndre Hopkins or Joe Mixon? Mixon. Yeah, I actually had not updated Mixon, so I'm going to do that right now. I think he goes up to the running back. Yeah, Mixon. Mixon round 2-3, Hopkins round 3-4. Okay, Mixon. We did about a 17-minute show

on Hopkins yesterday, but I didn't ask Jamie about your thoughts on Derrick Henry. So we can get into that. You guys can debate Hopkins or whatever you want to say about him. Go for it. We'd love to get Heath's perspective. But, Jamie, your thoughts on Derrick Henry? Does this change anything for him?

Not at all. I think overall it helps, just from the standpoint of the team. But my concerns are still the same. You know, if you go by offensive line rankings, pro football focus has the Titans ranked last. If you go by his age, he's 29, and that's a, you know, screaming red flag for anybody at that position. And then you just look at wear and tear.

In two of the last three seasons, he has 380 total touches or more. You know, so I have the same concerns about him. I feel better about the situation that he's playing in because I think now you're not going to see as many eight-man fronts as you would have. You're still going to dare the Titans to beat you through the air as opposed to letting Derrick Henry run right through you. So he's still going to see a lot of, you know, loaded fronts. But for me, it's still somebody that I'm probably out on unless he falls to the right

spot, which is the middle to the end of round two. And he typically does not get there in most of the drafts that I'm in. on unless he falls to the right spot, which is the middle to the end of round two. And he typically does not get there in most of the drafts that I'm in. But he does an ADP, at least, you know, an NFC ADP. Derrick Henry is, I mean, I've said it over and over again, Tony Power, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs are at the 2-3 turn. That's incredible.

Yeah, it is. It's a little confusing. I think the fantasy implications and like the real life implications if you tell me that ryan tannahill and derrick henry and deandre hopkins are playing 17 games this year i think they're all three going to smash their adp and i think the titans are probably going to win the south um but there's a lot of risk with Ryan Daniel and Eric Henry and DeAndre Hopkins in terms of not missing time. I don't think they're going to win the South,

but I did see your tweet about that. You've been, you've been very active on Twitter with some, with not hot takes, but I think you're stirring the pot a little bit. You're stirring the pot. Maybe so. Cause you know,

people are still super high on Jacksonville and you're just like, but you're right. I mean, Tennessee, Tennessee went into Jacksonville week 18 last year and nearly beat them with Josh Dobbs at quarterback, which would have won them the division. So let's not discount Tennessee.

They're obviously a lot better now. So, Heath, your overall take on, let's say, on Tannehill, on Burks, and you already talked about Hopkins and I guess a little bit of Henry. I think last week Jamie and I were on, and you asked where does Traylon Burks go if Dion back when the odds spiked in Hopkins favor. And I said round 10 and I think that was a little too low. I've got him in round eight, right around wide receiver 40. I think that that, that same injury risk for DeAndre Hopkins or age risk for DeAndre Hopkins also provides some upside for Traylon Burks. But I don't,

I don't think he's likely to be a starting wide receiver if Hopkins plays 17 games. What about Chico Conquo done? He's still a number two tight end. Isn't everyone, would you rather have Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill? Wilson,? Wilson. Jamie?

Wilson. Yeah, as we said yesterday, you brought up the fact of the tiers, which I guess we'll get to, of where these guys kind of fall in line, and I think Tannehill is in the group behind Wilson. But to Heath's point, though, if you were to guarantee 17 games from Ryan Tannehill, it would not be surprising if he's better because I think as we've seen in a couple of times over the last five years,

Tannehill's been right there with Russell Wilson from a fantasy production standpoint. So if they both hit, Russell Wilson should be better. But I think Tannehill won't be far behind. Let's talk a little bit more about Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon restructures his contract to stay with the Bengals. One week from today, he will turn 27 years old. I'll probably forget next Monday, so Joe, happy birthday in advance. He's been a top 10 running back per game in four of the last five seasons.

In two straight seasons, he's been top eight per game in half PPR, top six per game in full PPR. Yes, he scored a lot of points in one game against Carolina. If you want to remove that game, let's remove his best game last year. Let's remove his worst game last year. Let's remove the game he left early with an injury. I still think he's, I think he would have been RB10 in every other week. His normal weeks, RB10 per game.

You know, and a lot of that was just the amount of passes he caught. The amount of catches he had. So, how about the Pollard-Jacobs-Henry group? Is Mixon behind them? Yes. I have it Jacobs, Pollard, Mixon, Henry. Okay. Why Mixon over Henry for you? I think Henry's two years older. Mixon is at the spot, especially for Dynasty, where you start thinking, man, he could fall off a cliff at any moment. But I also think in your research, Adam, like age 27 has been a pretty fantastic year for Renix. Yeah, unbelievable year. Age 29 has not. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but maybe it's not

unbelievable. I might have oversold it, but it's a good year. It's a good year. Very good year. It's 28, 29 where the cliff usually happens. I think there's more age risk, more overuse risk for Henry than there is for Mixon. That's the only reason why. Okay, and Jamie, I know you like Ramondre Stevenson. I know everybody likes Ramondre Stevenson. Stevenson or Mixon? Stevenson's still for me, but Mixon is not far behind. I think those guys are in a very similar spot.

The thing that concerns me about Mixon is what's changed from his situation a year ago? Well, it's gotten better. I would say P. Ryan left. P. Ryan left. Mixon wasn't even the third down pack last year. The offensive line's probably better for one blocking, right? I would hope that they don't use anybody else, use anybody else in that regard. But I just don't see a big change.

Right, but he was number six per game last year or something like that. But again, you're still looking at that big game as part of that. Yeah. I mean, look, everybody knows it. The guy has been shockingly inefficient as a running back.

The regular metrics, the advanced metrics, they're just not good. I mean, they're just not good. And it's been almost every year of his career. Yeah. So, Heath, you're not, it doesn't seem like you're buying what I'm saying. I don't know if shockingly inefficient I would buy.

Below average, I would agree with. The reason I said that is because of the situation he was in, the light boxes that he faced. You would have expected him to be a lot better. But their offensive line, for most of the time that Joe Mixon has been a bingle, has been awful.

Yeah, or bad. And his career yards per carry is 4.1. He has two seasons in the last five below four yards per carry. I don't think that's... It's fine. He's a little below average. He's one year in his career above 4.1, right? Yes. That's not good.

For a guy who is in such an advantageous situation, and then look at Samaj P. Ryan. I don't think it's a great situation. Oh, it's such a good situation. Samaj P. Ryan, when Mixon was out, Samaj P. Ryan was... Their offensive line's been awful, but it's a great situation. Oh, it's such a good situation. Samajay Piran, when Mixon was out, Samajay Piran was... Their offensive line's been awful. But it's not now. Right, I think it's a good situation now. I don't know if it was awful

last year. I don't think it was awful last year. It was like 21st in run blocking grade for, you know... Okay. That's just as shockingly bad as 4.1 yards per carry. I think you're over. I think you're not being critical of... What do you think is average 4 yards per carry for a running back? I. I think you're not being critical enough here. What do you think is average four yards per carry for a running back?

I mean, that's an interesting question because how many running backs are we talking about here? When you're talking about, you know, a top 12 fantasy running back, 4.1 is bad. Guys who get 15 carries a game. Honestly, I don't know.

I would guess in the 4-3, 4-4 range. I'll try to get that for you. I would just in the 4-3, 4-4 range. I'll try to get that for you. I would just think that people are very disappointed at Joe Mixon's career, basically. And that he should be doing more. Well, look, Heath,

if people believed in him, he'd be a first-round pick or an early second-round pick as the primary guy for the Bengals who caught, how many catches did he have last year? He had 60 catches in 14 games. He's the undisputed goal-line guy. Why is he going to be picked probably in the third round?

Because his ADP started in the sixth round because we thought he was going to get cut? Do it all over again, and he is not going to be picked based on his fantasy production. He's going to go lower. If you're telling me right now that Pollard, Jacobs, and Henry

are going at the 2-3 turn, there's no way Joe Mixon's getting into round two. That's right. That's what I'm saying. I don't think... I think that Pollard, Jacobs, and Mixon's going at the 2-3 turn is more a product of best ball ADP influencing regular ADP.

I do not think those guys will be at the 2-3 turn when we get to August, and it's mostly redraft drafts. I still don't think Mixon gets into round two, though. Yeah, he may not. But I was saying, in my opinion, it's because of where he started at the beginning of the summer. I think he'll get to round three. Well, anyway, yeah, he'll get to round three.

But based on how productive he's been each of the last two years, he should clearly be a second-round pick, if not a late first-round pick. But people aren't going to – I don't know. I think there's hesitation there. Yeah, I think a big change is like Jamie and I are talking about him as a borderline top 12 running back, right? Maybe a high-end number two running back. And that guy, that rank of running back is not getting into the second round anymore. It used to be if you were the number 10 running back, you might be a first-round pick. He was the number six running back per game in PPR two years in a row.

Two years in a row. And he's 27 years old. He's on one of everybody's favorite offenses. He is the undisputed lead back for that team. He caught 60 passes last year. There's a reason why Joe Mixon is not a first-round pick. Everything I just said, he should be a first-round

pick. At worst, a late first. At worst, a mid-second round pick. Go back to P. Ryan Levin. Do you think he's getting more than 60 catches? I don't. Because most of his catches came on first and second down. I don't think they're going to throw their running backs as much this year.

I have him at 63, but that's over 17 games as opposed to the 14 he played last year, so it's fewer per game. I mean, the biggest thing when you just look at it is his lack of touchdowns. If he scores three or four more touchdowns, you can feel a lot better about him.

And again, I know four of them came in one game, but there's just a lot of empty box scores for him. Right, right. All right, so I'm sorry. My overall point is, if I told you you've got a 27-year-old running back who has been number six per game two years in a row, is on the bangles, has no competition in his backfield, you would not think that that guy is going in the third round,

which I think is where his ADP is going to be for a while. I think it might end up going higher. He should end up as one of the best picks in the third round. I mean, this was a guy that we were talking about. What was his ADP last year? Like end of the first round, beginning of the second round? I'm not sure. Yeah, somewhere in that range.

Top 15? Yeah. Yeah. And I do, I just think, where do you think he'll settle in terms of running backs? He's RB12? To be drafted? Yeah.

The 12th running back? I would say that's fair. Somewhere between 10 and 15 would be what I would guess. And most of the last 10 years, if you're an RB12, you are a surefire second round pick. Right.

It's been almost every year, at least 12 running. A lot of years, 18 running backs have been taken in the first two rounds. 16 running backs. based on what we're seeing,

that Jefferson is probably going to be the first pick, Chase is probably going to end up being the second pick, you're going to see a lot of people at the 2-3 turn looking at Joe Mixon. Yeah. And I guess you could just ask yourself, I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but why is a guy who's been number six two years in a row

going to be treated like number 12? And how long can we use the contract situation as an excuse? Cause that's gone now. So I don't think you, you have to think about it that way, but I think also, you know, there are a lot of people that clearly feel the way you do, that he's been inefficient, that he's been disappointing for where his overall numbers have put him. You know, that if you look at his, you know, games from a year ago, there's one game that spikes and the rest of them are sort of okay. But I think if you're starting to compare him to

and you have to use the word upside, where does his upside lie by comparison to Derek Henry, to Tony Pollard, to Josh Jacobs, to Jonathan Taylor, to Saquon Barkley. I don't think he's going to crack the top three, but I think once you start to get through four through 12, certainly he's in that conversation. To me, he feels closer to and take this for what the top three, but I think once you start to get through four through 12, you know, there's certainly he's in that conversation.

To me, he feels closer to and take this for what it's worth, but I just, in terms of volume, he feels closer to Najee Harris to me than he does to those other guys. Just the guy's going to get a lot of opportunities. He's got less competition than Najee does at this point, but similar type of scenario. You know,

he's going to get the ball a lot. Hopefully he's going to get 50 plus catches. And if he's going to get the ball a lot. Hopefully he's going to get 50-plus catches. And if he gets the total numbers, we'll be good at the end of the season. Just the week-to-week stuff will kind of feel a little disappointing. Well, if their offensive line improves, I think you can make some very, very obvious Josh Jacobs comparisons because Jacobs went from a 4-yard per carry guy to a 4.9-yard per carry guy. Got every touch for that team,

every one that mattered, basically. And if their offensive line gets better, which it should, maybe Mixon can be that guy. Maybe he could be a shocking RB2 or something like that. Is that so far-fetched? I think he has that upside.

All the opportunities that he gets, if he scores more touchdowns, he'll be fine. Because if you're talking about a 60-catch guy that's going to get 250 carries, that's hard to overlook. Right. Jacobs had 340 carries. I don't know if Mixon gets there, but they didn't run a lot. They had the fifth lowest run rate last year.

But, all right, point ended there with Joe Mixon. Now let's move on here real quick. Jacksonville signs Evan Ingram to a three-year deal with $24 million guaranteed, according to Adam Schefter. Heath, quick analysis on that contract, what it means for Ingram. It'll be a little boost

for his dynasty value when I update those next week because it's a little bit more security. He should be on that offense for at least the next two years now instead of only being guaranteed this year. I don't think it means anything for redraft. Okay.

Tyreek Hill is guaranteeing 2,000 yards and a Super Bowl. What's more likely? 2,000 yards. Super Bowl. We'll find out about Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Saquon Barkley today. 4 p.m. Eastern time is the deadline

to get a long-term deal done before it's franchise tag or else. And those are the last three guys, Jacobs, Pollard, and Barkley, still on the franchise tag. Found someone who likes Andy Dalton more than Heath. Miles Sanders called Andy Dalton a future Hall of Famer. I like Miles Sanders,

but I'm going to have to disagree with him on that one. He doesn't watch a lot of football, apparently. What's that? He moved him up. He doesn't watch a lot of football, apparently. What's that? I moved him up. He doesn't watch a lot of football, apparently. You moved him up. No, he doesn't. Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com said,

Jameer Gibbs, quote, might be the best receiving running back I've seen in a Lions uniform in my 15 years covering the team. I wonder who his top three are. Swift. Gibbs. Swift. Gibbs. Swift. Abdullah.

Amir Abdullah. There's some other names. Was Reggie Bush? Am I crazy? Was he on the Lions? He was, but it was the last 15 years. Oh, yeah. I think so.

Look that up. I think so. Look that up. I think so. Yes, he was on the Lions later in his career. It was 10 years ago. New England wide receiver Taequann Thornton was dealing with a soft tissue injury in the spring, so we'll hope he's ready for training camp. And encouraging news for the Jets.

Tackle Mekhi Becton, probably going to be their right tackle this year. He recently weighed in in the 340 range, in the low 340s, according to Pro Football Talk. And that's a big deal. Very talented player who's had major issues with his weight. So I hope that would be great for the Jets if they can get a good season out of Mekhi Becton. All right, a couple things to promote here. The Podcast League, you want in?

We've got three days left for you to go and bid on a spot in our Podcast League. It's about $2,000 now, and we want to raise as much money as we can. Right now, it's $1,925. It's all going to St. Jude. Go to tinyurl.com

slash FFT donate. I've been tweeting about it as well. tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. At that site, you can see the spot in the podcast league. And by the way, I put the date of the draft.

I think we are going Monday, August 28th, I believe it is at 8 p.m., but that's in the information. You can bid on that there and many other things to benefit St. Jude and benefit your fantasy team. tinyurl.com slash FFT donate.

We are also adding a new feed to the fantasy football today family starting tomorrow you'll be able to hear the fft dynasty show in its own feed that is awesome it has i would say the coolest logo in apple podcast or any podcast platform uh check it out fantasy football today it's great um but yeah it's a brand new feed we got the link in the episode description or you can find it by searching Fantasy Football Today Dynasty on your favorite podcast platform. And yeah, hosted by Heath Cummings. And by the way, if you're a viewer,

still on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. We're going to take a break and get to quarterbacks. They deserve it. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football Today. Take back your free time with PC Express Online grocery delivery and pickup. Score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time.

And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. With Smartwater's pure, crisp taste, there's nothing to overthink. So while you may be spiraling over double-texting your crush, whether your skincare routine is working because you look the same or is doing nothing because you look the same, and whatever the heck red light therapy is,

it's definitely not that. Don't overthink how you hydrate. Life's full of choices. Smartwater is a simple one time now for our quarterback tears so yeah heath you have your projection tears available should we go i have my projections available so i can easily see where the tear breaks would be so we can we can do that type of comparison if you'd like. I assume we're going over Dave's tiers? No, I was thinking yours.

I don't want to do Dave's tiers without Dave here. Yeah, okay. So I figured, you know. It's just rankings. I mean, all we're doing is just separating. Right. But right, obviously the tiers. Jamie, what's the point of doing tears for those who don't use tears?

The purpose of doing tears is that you're going to look to get a player in a certain group that you feel is going to hopefully stand out. Or if you're going the opposite direction of that, you're looking to get the last player in a tier that you feel the most confident in. So, for example, the tier one quarterbacks, I think for most people are are going to be the top three guys in some order of Mahomes, Allen, and Hertz. And if you want one of those three guys, you just want to make sure you get at least the last one based on how it falls. So it's just a matter of separating them into who you think is going to stand out. It's how we probably separate breakouts and sleepers as well. You know, if you're in a certain tier, you're going to have a chance to be a top X number

player or not reach necessarily that caliber of level. So I think it's just separating the rankings into certain groups. And let's say hypothetically, you had a big second tier, which was Burrow, Fields, Jackson, Herbert, Lawrence. Let's just say that you had a five-person tier. Burrow was the first one in your tier and lawrence was the last one if they're in the same tier does that mean that you really should never draft joe burrow and you should just always wait for trevor lawrence or is that taking it a little bit too literally that's taking it too literally yeah um and it depends like some of these tiers are a

little closer than others, too. It depends on how... You often, I think, say that I make the tiers too small. And so I'm going to try to have some bigger tiers for you, some crocodile tiers for you today. But yeah, that is taking it a little too far. But that's kind of the purpose. If you have three guys in the same tier, and one of them goes in round 10, and one of them goes in round 6, you should probably draft the one that goes in round 10 in round 9. Is there anything other than an injury that you think could change your quarterback tiers before the season starts? Yes.

Sure. Just, you know, preseason scuttlebutt? I mean, I think Anthony Richardson is probably a good one to look at just preseason scuttlebutt? I mean, I think Anthony Richardson's probably a good one to look at because if he looks great, he can jump a tier or be pushed into a higher tier, and vice versa could certainly fall down a tier or two if he struggles. I mean, think about what Ryan Tannehill just did, right? He went from somebody that was borderline undraftable

to now someone who you should consider as a starter in a two-quarterback league. Okay. So let's go to Tier 1 then. And we'll try to work in, this is going to be six-point-per-passing touchdown tiers, but we'll definitely work in some four-point stuff as well. I'll put it in the notes.

All right, Heath, what's our first tier? Yeah, Tier 1 is, I think everyone will agree my homes alan and jalen hurts in whatever order you want i would say in a four point per pass touchdown league i would not put my homes in the first tier it would just be alan and hurts too small this tier should be at least 10 people yeah well you were just talking about tier two with justin fields and uh joe burrow and lamar jack. So I assumed that we had some agreement on this. I apologize. Okay, so Mahomes, Allen Hurts,

and in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league, it's Allen Hurts, and is Mahomes in his own tier? No, I think in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league, he just falls down into the next tier. Oh, interesting. Because part of his big edge is the fact that he projected for quite a few more touchdowns than anybody else,

passing touchdowns. And so if you take away two points for every one of those, it is a pretty big deal. Jamie, how do you see it in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league? I think everyone in the world

sees Mahomes, Allen, Hertz in a six-point-per-passing touchdown league as tier one. What about in a four-point? I would still put Mahomes in tier one with four points for passing touchdowns. So I would still, same three guys. Would he be last though, Mahomes?

He would be behind Allen Hurts, yes. Okay. All right, what's tier two? Interesting question here. I think this is where the controversy starts. In tier two, I would only have Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields. I don't have Justin Herbert or lawrence in that tier

uh... i actually think herbert probably belongs in a tier of his own you could make a better argument for him than anyone else to join tier two with these three guys it was just so miserable last year that it's hard to do that i would put those those four guys together jackson field bro and her and herbert okay jackson fields jackson fields borough this there's consensus there between the two of you those four guys together. Jackson, Fields, Burrow, and Herbert. Okay. Jackson, Fields, Burrow. At least there's consensus there

between the two of you. And Herbert for Jamie. Heath has Herbert in it. To be honest, a lot of people would probably put Burrow in the first year. Let's explore that. Does Burrow have that same upside where he could approach 30 fantasy points per game and a

six point per passing touchdown league like we've seen from Mahomes, Allen, and Hertz? I would say that more people than not would probably say that he has the best chance to get there from a passing standpoint. I think he has. I would definitely agree with that last caveat that Jamie added. He has the best chance to get there from a passing standpoint. I think because of the way that rushing counts, I think it's more likely that Fields or Lamar finishes as QB1 than Burrow. Let me just see. So he averaged in nine games with Chase and Higgins,

both healthy, not leaving early. The best sample size of Joe Burrow. He averaged 28.5 points per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. 23.5 in four-point. You probably can't make the case of Burrow being in tier one in four-point, right? No. No. Not if you're especially knocking Mahomes, though.

In six point, his pace was 4,945 yards, 42 touchdowns, six interceptions, plus 223 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. He did have, by the way, three one-yard rushing touchdowns last year, five overall. I don't know if he'll be able to repeat that, but that is a compelling case right there.

28.5 points per game in the nine games with a fully healthy Jamar Chase T. Higgins not leaving early with injury. Does that do it for you? Again, I would put him... For me, he's behind Jackson and Fields

because of the rushing. So he's in tier two. But I think if you look at the way most people draft, most analysts draft, and probably the way ADP is going to shake out, he is probably closer to the top three than he is to those two. Yeah, but I could not take him in the second round.

I'm sure you guys couldn't either. Joe Burrow? No. No, but I think what we're going to see is because quarterbacks are going to get pushed up that a lot of people are going to consider it. So it comes down to we know what the flaws are for Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Jackson hasn't finished the last two seasons. Fields has yet to prove himself over a full season and certainly has a room to grow as a passer.

Joe Burrow has established himself. He is that next guy. But fantasy wise, he still has some room where he can get better. It would take him having that 5,000 yard season, that 45 touchdown season, limiting the receptions, running a little bit more.

Could he do it? Absolutely. I would not put it past him. I think if you're looking at it, again, for me, if I'm drafting just based on tiers, if you tell me I get Burrow or Herbert based on how I have it ranked, I love it. But again, for me, if I'm drafting just based on tiers, if you tell me I get Burrow or Herbert based on how I have it ranked, I love it. But again, I think most people are going to take Burrow ahead of Jackson and

Fields. Right. But you're saying that you have, that you'd rather take Herbert at his value than Burrow. Is that what you're saying? I would rather take Herbert at his value than any of these guys because I'm still, as much as I would love to get one of these quarterbacks, I would still love to wait as well because I think the upside for Herbert is still there.

What happened last year does not sway me from where I think Herbert's going to finish. Okay. What ADP would you like me to use today, guys? Should I keep using NFC? Yes, but you can filter out best ball.

Okay, I'll do it since July 1st. And... Okay. I'll do all drafts non-Superflex. How about that? So Mahomes is 12th. Josh Allen is 18th. Jalen Hurts is also 18th.

Joe Burrow is 12th. Josh Allen is 18th. Jalen Hurts is also 18th. Joe Burrow is 28th. Then Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert are 38th. And Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence are about 50th. So these tiers are very different. This would have Burrow in his own tier, basically. Then Jackson and Herbert in their own tier. Then Fields and Lawrence in their own tier. And I think that's like when you start looking at it and tiering by ADP you're getting back into more what Dave does with his tiers um and so there's going to be some pretty

big gaps probably because what usually when we're both on a tier show there's some pretty big gaps between what we're doing all right so to recap Mahomes Alan hertz in tier one burrow lamar jackson justin fields in tier two for heath jamie's gonna throw justin herbert in there as well um and let's go to the next tier tier three yeah and this is where i i i kind of feel like herbert deserves his own tier but for the purposes of having the discussion we should just probably put him clearly at the top of tier three. And then I think this includes Tua. This includes Anthony Richardson. This includes Dak. This includes Deshaun Watson. This includes Trevor Lawrence. And I would probably cut it off at that point. And I don't care about the order. We're talking about tiers. So Lawrence, Watson, Dak, Richardson, Tua, Herbert. I put

Herbert above those guys in a different tier because he's had a couple of 26 fantasy point per game seasons already. And I'm willing to give him a little more of a pass on last year. But I think any of these guys could reasonably jump into tier two this year. Okay. Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tungavailoa, Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence. And Heath is not really so concerned about the order.

This is just the group of six that are in this tier with Justin Herbert really in tier two and a half. Jamie, your thoughts? I would disagree. Again, I would put Herbert in the tier above, but I think these are the guys that either, in the case of

Lawrence, Richardson, and Tua, these are the breakout candidates. And so those are the guys I think that have the chance to certainly not necessarily jump a tier, but by the end of the season, you'd be pretty thrilled if they play a full season and play to their capabilities and obviously play to their ceilings. If you want to throw Watson and Dak in there as well, I think those guys are going to be very, very polarizing for a lot of people

because of what Deshaun looked like last year, and then obviously Dak and people just feeling like they're sort of out on him. But sure, if you want to put these guys all in one group, I don't have a problem with that. All right, Dak, Prescott. Not really a great season, especially from a touchdown standpoint, and he was still QB 9 per game. So Prescott and Watson are two players that we've actually seen with top five finish.

Oh, and Herbert, sorry. So Herbert, Watson and Dak have done it before. Tua, Richardson and Lawrence have not. Does that matter at all when you look at this group? I mean, I think it matters more because I would probably agree that Tua, Richardson, and Lawrence have more upside than Dak and Watson this year. But those guys have not shown for more than four or five games any reason to think that they will make the leap into Tier 2,

whereas Prescott and watson have actually done it with all six of these players herbert watson tua richardson prescott lawrence uh do you feel fine with them as your only quarterback lawrence without hesitation um watson and dac yes. Richardson and Tua, no. Agreed. And obviously Herbert, yes. So Herbert, I think when you look at the – I looked at the last five years and some of the biggest surprises at quarterback,

and there were a couple of things that really stood out. Well, three things. Okay, one, you've got the young breakout player. That happens. Two, and when I say surprises, I mean guys who really outperformed their ADPs and had great seasons. Players with new offensive coordinators

is, you know, Dak Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger in 2018. They got rid of Todd Haley and went to, oh, Randy Frickner or whatever. Randy Fickner. I think it was Ben Roethlisberger. What did I say? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

But he threw the ball 114 more times than he did the year before. Dak Prescott, when Dak Prescott went from being this fine 23-touchdown pass guy to a guy who threw for like 4,900 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2019. And by the way, the guy that did that is now going to be with Justin Herbert. Absolutely. And also veteran bounce back. You know, we tend to discount older guys, but some of the guys who have been the best ADP over performers in the last five years have been Aaron Rodgers,

have been Tom Brady, Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan went from an MVP season in 2016 to a pretty bad season in 2017 to being QB2 in 2018. He was an amazing value, and he was QB13 in ADP. So Justin Herbert, I would say, checks two of those three boxes. He's got the new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, and he's kind of like not nearly in the same part of his career as a Matt Ryan or an Aaron Rodgers or a Tom Brady, but he was QB2. But he doesn't fit the thing we're talking about,

guys who surprise and outperform ADP. If he's really QB6 or 7, then he – yeah, you're right. He's not like QB 9 or 10. I wish he were going lower, but he could still finish as a top 2 QB. He's done it before. Maybe he was 3. He could still dramatically outperform his ADP, I think, anyway. I couldn't agree more.

I think he's—to me, he's my favorite value at the position. Okay. Let's go to Tier 4 then, Heath. What do we got in Tier 4? Tier 4 is kind of the boring guys. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith. I don't know where I'm supposed to put Kyler Murray in this group. He probably is another guy like herbert who kind of deserves

his own tier because if he's 100 for week one then he should definitely be in the earlier tier um if he's gonna start on the pup then he doesn't belong in this tier so daniel jones kirk cousins aaron rogers geno smith is that what it was do you see what happened with uh will brinson and Kyler Murray? I sure did. No, but I can't wait to hear it. Will did quarterback tiers for the site from a reality standpoint. And he broke them down into certain categories. And he gave, correct me if I'm wrong, Adam,

but he put Kyler in the last tier. I don't know what to do tier. Right. His tiers were so different than, you know, it wasn't even based on performance. It was just like, it was just interesting category. So where was Kyler Murray? He was in the no clue, man. Like just didn't know what to make of them this year.

He doesn't know if Kyler Murray is going to play. So when you see it, you're obviously just looking at the tiers. When you read it and hear him talk about it, it's a little different. He explains it. If Kyler is right, he's in five tiers up. So Kyler just saw the tiers listing, and he made a comment about it, and then it blew up everywhere. Yes, I saw it in the New York Post, and I sent it to Brinson.

I was like, you made the New York Post? Yeah, his quarterback tiers have like Daniel Jones is higher than Dak Prescott because the tiers are just different. Daniel Jones is in the intrigue with question marks with Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. And then Dak Prescott is in the you can win with them category, which is actually lower than the intrigue with question marks. So it was a fun article. If you just retweet the image, the graphic that was made on social media and don't have any of the context, you will lose your mind. So looking at Kyler's tweet and that's what he's tweeting off of the list where he's in tier six. No, I'm sorry.

Yes. Tier six of seven right above the rookies and he just with three laughing crying laughing emoji said i love it right so i'm gonna move kyler murray up now um no but i think like jamie's early comment at the top of the show that tears are just kind of rankings but broken into groups does not appear to be true for will's tears no they're not broken into groups at all no no it's almost like what stage of your career are you in those are will's tears but for this tier jones cousins rogers geno smith so i just asked you if you felt good with just herbert watson tua richardson prescott lawrence as your only quarterback and for some of them you said yes does that apply to any of these guys? Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith? I think as your only quarterback,

I think these are the guys that you want to pair with the questionable guys in front of them. That's what I would love to do. I draft Richardson. I'm looking for Geno Smith. I draft Tua. I'm looking for Aaron Rodgers. I'm looking for those safe, reliable guys

that have shown, obviously, I'm looking for Aaron Rogers, you know, I'm looking for those safe, reliable guys that, you know, have shown obviously for their entire career, mostly Aaron Rogers, or at least, you know, the ability last year. And I think you make a case that, you know, Russell Wilson and Jared Goff probably belong in this group as well, but you know, the guys that have the chance to still be safe starters, you know, and, and again, we saw it last year that can they hit the 20 point threshold consistently? You know, Geno Smith did that. I think Aaron Rodgers, you should feel comfortable with him hopefully doing that. Kirk Cousins, they're going to throw the ball so much, there's a lot to like there. And then Daniel Jones with his legs.

So this group is the perfect wait-for-quarterback group. So if you're still in that camp that you want to wait and wait and wait and be the last person to draft your starter, this is the group you're living in. So Kyler Murray, we're just going to leave out of this group for now it's daniel jones kirk cousins aaron rogers and geno smith who has the most upside cousins i'm going to say cousins too because i do think like it's unlikely because how much they threw last year i do think it's possible they just throw even more. And he has Addison who's better than Thielen. Why is it not Aaron Rodgers?

We've already played this game with Rodgers before, and he won two straight MVPs. I don't think they're going to throw as much, and I think it comes down to at his age, does he still have that level to get to again? I think you've got to be excited about Garrett Wilson, just based on he went from a two-time MVP, lost to Monte Adams, and struggled.

And now he has a guy that, not necessarily at that level, but that caliber of player. He's reunited with Nathaniel Hackett, whatever you think of him. His best years have come with Nathaniel Hackett. And you hope motivation. You hope that he's going to a situation where, okay, maybe he was a little disgruntled last year

and just kind of went through the motions, and now he's back to being that MVP caliber quarterback. So he was the other guy that came to mind when you asked the question, but I think Cousins has, I think, just a little bit higher ceiling based on what's happening for him and the team that he plays for. Yeah, the other guy that I hesitated not saying, um, and I really don't know what to do with is,

is Gino. Oh, I thought you were going to say, I think he was the best of this group last year. And then he added Jackson Smith and Chicka. Like I, I, it's hard for me to believe and I don't ever bet on guys like that.

And that's why he's in this tier, but it feels like he's, he's being shorted a little bit here. Okay. So it's not Daniel Jones. this tier. But it feels like he's being shorted a little bit here. So it's not Daniel Jones. Alright, we will take a break. I just want, you know, one thing about, real quick, on Cousins. What'd you make of his, you know, very low by his standards, 4.5%

touchdown rate? Because if he can get his touchdown rate back up and still throw, he threw the fourth most passes in football last year. Is that some hidden upside there for Cousins? Yeah. I mean, again, you look at, we always talk about who these guys have,

and he's got best receiver in the game, top whatever tight end you want to put Hawkinson at. I already disagree with you. He does not have the best receiver of the game. Isaiah Hodgins? Joe Burrow is the best receiver of the game. Okay, you can make that argument. Arguably the best receiver in the game,

Justin Jeffers. Top X tight end, but top five by most people's estimation. Added a high upside rookie. So there's everything to love. Plus his running game just maybe disappeared. I got a great stat, Heath.

Great stat for you. The Vikings, this is actually, I found this in my mixing stats. The Vikings were one of the teams in the bottom five in run rate last year. So one of the most pass-heavy teams. The other five teams were the Bengals. No, got the stat wrong. It's a great stat. I think it was the bottom five in run rate, and the Vikings were the only team that were bottom five in run rate

and were not top five in running back targets. So most teams that don't run the ball ever throw a ton to their running backs and the vikings were 22nd in running back targets and that's the path to justin jefferson being the number one wide receiver in fantasy football tj hawkinson being a top five tight end and jordan addison still being startable right there you go i would expect more i would just expect more because most teams that throw that much. More running back targets? Yeah. They were really low.

To who? To Madison, honestly. I'm just saying they were really low. I think they got to get closer to league average. I will just say that the Rams, the last two or three or four years, have been amongst the lowest in running back target share. And that's where the Vikings coach and system came from. All right, maybe.

All right, here we go. We'll take a break here. When we come back, we've got the rest of our tiers. We're getting into some backup quarterbacks, some high upside guys late, and we'll be right back. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days.

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When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer your game time tastes like miller time learn more at millerlight.ca must be legal drinking age all right we are up to tier five and we have gotten one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve, 15, 16 quarterbacks in plus Kyler Murray. Kyler, where do you want to put Kyler Murray, Heath? I think that we should just talk about Kyler by himself, probably,

because I don't think you can put him in a tier. I think he probably belongs in that Watson group of could be really good if everything's okay. I don't think that the Cardinals are going to be so bad with Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore and one of their tight ends that if he's healthy, he's going to be bad for fantasy this year. So it's just a health thing with him for me. I think he's probably a top 10 quarterback if he's 100%, and he might not play the first six weeks of the season. So where would you rank him if he's ready for camp? If he's ready for camp, I would rank him probably right behind Richardson,

who I think I have 10th. Okay, so he'd be lower for me. He'd be probably 12th at best. He'd be 10th. I'd have Richardson 9th and Kyler 10th. Okay. How about Tier 5, then? Who should we talk about in this tier?

Man, we are definitely, for me, I think it's just Wilson and Goff. It's the two guys that Jamie said. I just have them about 20 points behind the other guys. Wilson, because of how bad he was last year. Goff, because of how bad he was before last year. All right, so Wilson is the one who checks two of the boxes and is a steal in ADP if he hits, right?

Wilson's got the new offensive coordinator, and he's the veteran bounce-back guy. Exactly. So that would be the one. And better offensive line. I mean, that's huge. Wilson and Goff, no issues here? No, I don't think so. I think

you can make a case if Stafford, again, play the Tannehill game. If you tell me Stafford's playing 17 games, I would put him in this category also. I know his receiving core's got some issues aside from Cooper Cup, but I think it's just buying into what he's done and what Sean McVay has done. So I would put him just behind that.

So if you want to put those guys in a tier by themselves, it's fine. Tier 6. It's almost everybody else, I think, at this point, because it's mostly a hope and a prayer. They're probably low-end QB2 starters is what our expectation is, and maybe they have some hope of improving and being a mid range QB to starter. I think you put Purdy in here,

you put how in here, you put Tannehill and Stafford, you put Bryce young and CJ Stroud, Jordan love. Um, everybody else would probably put Derek Carr in there as well. Hmm. Uh,

Jamie, do you see any definitive tears amongst everyone else after golf? I'm saying, I said almost everybody else. I wouldn't put Ritter or whoever starts for Tampa Bay in this tier. Okay. How about you, Gene? Yeah, I'd probably leave Garoppolo out too, just with the concerns.

But yeah, no, I think Heath has it right. You know, it's a lot of ifs. A lot of ifs. And I'd probably leave Mac Jones out as well. I don't think he's very likely okay who do you think

if you were going to 2QB league I mean who do you target here who are some of your favorites based on cost it's Howell because he's going around QB 30 and he has a little we've talked about it so many times I hate to keep saying the same thing over and over but he ran for 800 yards and 12 touchdowns his last year of college. And he had 35 rushing yards. His only start in the NFL.

He's got Terry McCorn and Jahan Dotson and he's got the upside. Like I know there's question marks about Eric B enemy, but he has the upside of if Eric B enemy is good and he has those two wide receivers and he rushes for 30 yards a game, he's probably there. I just wonder with him, he, to me, feels benchable, reality-wise. If he struggles, like Jacoby Brissett starting. That's the concern. Something you definitely have to take that into account

in a super flex league or a 2QB league. Less job security than, say, someone like Jordan Love, you'd think. And people really seem to like... I don't know the vibe you're getting, Jamie. I'm getting a lot of love for Jordan Love just from the general public. I'm sure there's a lot of anti-Jordan Love too, but for the quarterbacks going in this range, I think there's maybe more excitement about Love.

Just my personal take on it. More excitement from the fantasy community about Love, Jordan Love, than other quarterbacks in this range. Yeah, no, I think there's, look, you can't sit here and say, again, we play the weapons game. Who do they have? So we're hyping up Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs is getting some love.

Is there an opportunity here for Matt LaFleur's quarterback to step up and take advantage of? He's a first-round guy. Not necessarily that that's meant a lot in the last, you know, five-plus years. We've seen teams move on from first-round guys pretty quickly. But I think there's a lot to like about what he can become.

And so I don't disagree with you. For me, and this goes back to the Hopkins thing, I think the fact that, you know, everybody was looking at Tennessee, and I know Heath is sort of, you know, pushing back on this publicly, apparently. Understandably so. This is a big statement for Tannehill, I think, that they went out and got Hopkins, that they're not going to rush Will Levis into action.

We're still competing to be the best team in the AFC South, which is a division that they've owned. And so I think this helps make the case for Tannehill in two quarterback and super flex. Like I moved them up since our conversation last night, you know, to from 23 to 21, you know, not somebody that I'm, I'm actively targeting, but I think if you miss on a good number two quarterback, like, I don't think he's that far behind Russell Wilson and Jared Goff because we've seen him do it again. You know, those guys should have a higher ceiling because of the players around them and the systems that they play in.

But I think Tannehill's got certainly much more upside after what happened yesterday. I'm just going to say this. This is for Kenny Pickett. We haven't talked about yet, really. Justin Fields was QB 18 in ADP last year, according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

Trevor Lawrence was QB 19. You know, Kenny Pickett's an afterthought right now in drafts. year, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Trevor Lawrence was QB 19. Kenny Pickett's an afterthought right now in drafts. Obviously, both Fields and Lawrence finished as top 10 guys. Any faith in Kenny Pickett? He's got a lot going for him

situation-wise. Hope. Not faith. Hope. Jamie, how about you? Any Kenny Picket interest? Yeah, I mean, again, he's got quality players around him. He'll do some stuff with his legs. The problem for me is that this feels very much, Mike Tomlin is not going to, at least by all estimations

of what we saw last year, allow him to be maybe the quarterback that he could become because we're going to win with defense. We're going to win with our run game. We're going to keep games close. You know, he doesn't have a problem winning field goal games. So I think Kenny Pickett's got a lot to prove. You know, and you look at it, think about what the Patriots turned into post-Tom Brady, right?

They went back to their conservative ways with a young quarterback. What have we seen from the Steelers, at least in one year without Ben Roethlisberger? Go back to their conservative ways. Remember what Roethlisberger was early in his career? Remember what Brady was early in his career? They had to work to become those guys. Same coach in a lot of ways.

I know Roethlisberger had Cowher, but Tomlin sort of inherited that. I think you're going to see it's going to take a lot of time, I think, for Kenny Pickett to flourish despite the weapons around him. So you give Deontay Johnson a couple more touchdowns. I think that's obvious. You give a couple more to Fryermuth and to George Pickens. But I still think as long as Najee Harris is healthy, he's going to get as many touches he can handle,

and they're fine winning a field goal game. Heath, what are the major changes in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues? So you've already said Mahomes would be, for you, outside of Tier 1. For Jamie, he'd be the third guy in Tier 1. What else, just for those managers? Well, I think if Anthony Richardson becomes the starter, he is maybe at the top of Tier 3 instead of at the bottom of it, but not in a different tier.

Um, Daniel Jones probably moves up a tier because he only throws like 12 touchdown passes a year. And so that doesn't hurt him as much in four point per pass touchdown leagues. Um, I, I would be more excited about Kyler in four point per pass touchdown

leagues. Um, and that's about it. Okay. You could certainly argue for, uh, for Sam Howell. And,

uh, I'm just going to tell you. And one more guy to Trey Lance. Yeah. Well, what do you think about birdie? Do you guys like Brock birdie? I think he's right there with pickett and Howell and Love for me.

If you tell me he's 100% healthy, I would probably put him ahead of those guys, but we just don't know. Until we see in camp, and I know everything's been positive so far, which is great, but when is he going to start throwing in competitive situations? That's what I want to see. In his career, Heath,

Daniel Jones is on pace for 19 touchdowns per 17 games. So let's be fair. But in his last three years, it's probably more like 12. Heath is the high guy on Daniel Jones. You should be impressed. In his last three years, he is on pace for 15 touchdowns per 12 days. Yeah, all right. Yeah, no, he loves Daniel Jones.

It's very funny. He likes him more than I do. All right, we will talk to you all tomorrow with our running back tiers on Fantasy Football today. Thanks, everybody.