Fantasy Football Today - QB Tiers, Plus Quinshon Judkins Reaction (07/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: July 14, 2025Jake Ciely of The Athletic hops on the show to help with quarterback tiers! First, some trivia (3:30) and news and notes as we react to the arrest of Browns running back Quinshon Judkins. What would t...he Browns backfield look like if Judkins missed time? We also react to Jauan Jennings' request for a new contract (10:40) ... Let's analyze Jamey's QB tiers for six-point per passing TD leagues beginning with Tier 1 (20:15) which has all five of the elite guys. Would that change in a 4-point per TD league? And Tier 2 (28:15) has one QB in it! Find out who it is ... Tier 3 (33:35) has some potential league winners, but are we sold on Bo Nix? And Tier 4 (49:00) features very mobile QBs with something to prove as passers. Does Caleb Williams really belong in this group? Meanwhile, Tier 5 (51:00) and Tier 6 (53:40) are an exercise on safety vs. upside. Should you be skipping the safer players to draft the upside guys? Or maybe draft both? And we finish with a very underrated Tier 7 (1:02:00) and beyond. Don't sleep on Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Shop our store: shop.cbssports.com/fantasy SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fan To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. All right, welcome to the show.
It is Monday, July 14th.
I'm Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg.
We have an awesome guest today.
We have Jake Sealy of The Athletic.
He is going to be participating in the FFT Open.
I'll tell you more about that later.
But right now it is time for quarterback tiers.
So Jamie's got his quarterback tiers published.
Check them out on the website,
cbsports.com slash fantasy football.
Actually, wait, is that it?
Did I get that wrong?
cbsports.com slash fantasy.
Just go there and then you can find everything.
Jamie, what's going on?
You're on top of your game today, buddy.
I am not, I am frazzled.
I have all thrown off.
Jake, thanks for being here.
What's up? Of course, I'm not, I am frazzled. I am all thrown off. Jake, thanks for being here, what's up?
Of course, I'm not frazzled.
You texted me last night on a Sunday and I'm here.
First thing on a Monday.
At least Jamie and I have things got together.
Gotten together, there you go.
I just proved I'm not.
They made me look a little bit better there.
Honestly, Thomas Schaefer, our producer, is my rock.
And he was out all last week and I just,
I'm thrown off, but he's back today, so I should be getting back on track welcome back Thomas Schaefer hope you had a good week
off I think Dave and Heath are out for most or all of this week so we're gonna bring in
he's off today and then he's back the rest of the week you're just really really struggling
yeah so basically you can't do your job without Thomas is what you're telling me but he's not
on every show because he's got dynasty shows yes Yes. Hi, Heath Cummings does Dynasty podcast.
Maybe you remember that. I know, but he's not on all of our shows is what I'm saying.
Oh, yes. What happened to you?
It's not on Friday show.
He's not on Friday show. That's the you went to some fancy birthday party this weekend and I think
everything just went crazy. You know, people are like, oh, I drank too much last night.
It was, man, I ate too much last night.
I haven't recovered from that.
But anyway, all right, Jake, tell us how we can find your material.
Over at the athletic
basically, everything is mostly out at this point, including my projections,
which you can play with.
You can customize them and be like, hey, I listened to everything
Jake said with you guys, and he's a dummy. So I'm going to go in there and mess with his projections and you can see how the You can customize them and be like, hey, I listened to everything Jake said with you guys and he's a dummy.
So I'm gonna go in there and mess with his projections
and you can see how the rankings will change for your league.
Excellent, that's great.
I have a trivia question for you guys.
I think Jamie's gonna know it
as I say this stat kind of somewhat frequently.
Over the past two seasons,
there have been three running backs
who lead the NFL with four carries of 60 or more yards.
Can you name them?
Barclay being one.
Barclay is one.
Kenneth Walker too?
No.
So again, we're looking for the three running backs
who have four carries of 60 or more yards.
Nobbins?
No, not enough carries.
Cook?
No. The guy who leads the NFL and carries No, not enough carries. Cook?
No.
The guy who leads the NFL and carries over the last two years.
Derrick Henry.
Derrick Henry.
Saquon Barkley.
No, he already said Ken Walker.
Man, what's with you today?
You're off today.
And the third one is relevant.
Still most or somehow?
Jerome Ford.
Jerome Ford.
A little bit more than half of the carries that Henry and Saquon Barkley have had over
the last two years.
Henry and Saquon, yeah, they are the two, actually they lead the NFL in carries over
the last two years.
Ford not even close.
But they, Jerome Ford's got this thing where he'll just rip off a 60 yard run every now
and then
we'll talk about him let's do it right now let's go to our news and notes then we'll get into the
quarterback tiers so quinshawn judkins cleveland's rookie running back was arrested on a domestic
violence and battery charge okay so i can just tell you that over the weekend i had my scott
fishbowl draft it's still going it's ongoing We're in round 12 out of 22. But in round
11, both Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford were picked. Sampson was the first pick of round
11. And then I took Jerome Ford with the third pick of round 11. The next running back off
the board was Javante Williams. So I maybe I regret that. But I wanted to get Gervonta was so far down in the
rankings, I thought maybe there was a chance to come back to me.
But Jerome Ford is a half a point per carry, it's two and a
half points per catch. But Jamie, if you were drafting
today, how would you treat the Browns running backs?
I mean, we still don't know all the situation that's happening
with Judkin. So he still would be the first one that I would
draft. I do think that if he's going to miss any time so
suspension or whatever happens with this thing that benefits Ford. I think if
everything is, if they're all available come week one then I would take Sampson
over Ford second. I think Ford's only going to really benefit if Judkins or
Sampson miss significant time. I think he's only going to really benefit if Judkins or Samson miss significant time
I think he's gonna have opportunity to play clearly but his upside is significantly capped if
Both rookies are available
so I it's almost like Judkins and Samson are on one side of the equation and and Ford's on the other and so it's like
Anybody miss his time Ford steps up anybody if they're healthy
so, you know, we had this discussion Adam Adam, when you were, you were saying something about
the way I drafted the, I took Judkins in that draft and then I took Samson, you said you
would have taken Ford.
Yeah.
I just think that Ford is more of like a break glass in case of emergency guy and they're
going to try and get Judkins and Samson opportunities to be their primary top two running backs.
Yeah, that draft obviously was before the arrest.
Jake, how do you see the Browns backfield right now?
Yeah, similarly, we still have to wait and see.
I mean, it could be as small as a game or two.
It could be six, eight plus.
It's just, we're speculating.
We have no idea right now, but I agree with Jamie
in the one aspect of like, if you're looking for the lead,
like what would be the lead of that backfield,
it's Jenkins or Ford, not really Samson,
but that what I agree with Jamie here is that means
that Samson is involved in no matter what.
I think Samson is kind of a Justice Hill,
Rashad White, smaller Rashad White type
of complimentary piece that he's going to be out there
with somebody, even if it's like Jaylen Warren
where it's 45% of the touches,
but there's somebody else with him that if Samson's out there
and there is no Judkins, then we're interested in Ford.
But if Judkins is out there at all,
I think Ford is the backup plan for Judkins, as Jamie said.
And we got a comment in the chat,
which we talked about last week when the report came out,
that one of the outlets in Cleveland said,
Ford is the starter.
Yes, that could absolutely be the case.
No matter what happens with Judkins,
when they open camp,
Ford may be the guy who gets the first carry
with the starters.
Makes total sense.
But eventually I think he's gonna get
not completely phased out, but phased out.
Yeah, and it's usually what happens
with rookie running backs,
unless they're drafted in the first half of the first round,
week one is typically not when they become the starter, but it doesn't take very long.
The report was not that Jerome Ford is the starter.
It was just the writer speculating Jerome Ford likely to be the starter in training
camp maybe even the first week or two of the season.
I do think though, in dynasty leagues, if you can get Jerome for cheap his price tag went up as well because the Judkins things but
you should be trying to acquire Jerome Ford if you can because there's a there's a very clear path now Tim being the starter early
In the season and I would say like in redraft the way I was approaching this before this whole situation came out
I think you'll agree. I don't want to put words in your mouth Jimmy
but was basically like it probably will be more of a committee than we like to see to start the season.
And even if Jenkins is a lead, maybe everybody's involved in that.
Like you let somebody else draft Jenkins in the fifth, sixth round, get frustrated
and go after him in week three, because it's going to probably take a few weeks.
That's been their MO.
I mean, Stephanski used multiple backs, you know, as great as Nick Chubb was,
there was Kareem Hunt, they're still taking work away.
It just was, you know, that that's why Nick Chubb was so special. He was able to be
so, so accomplished with, you know, coming off the field more than we liked. Yeah. Well, in five
seasons with Kevin Stefanski, the Browns have ranked second, third, third, third, and 32nd
in running back carries. So they usually, when they have a good running game,
they usually run the ball a lot.
They've tried to transition to a little bit more
of a passing team, but last year,
just nothing was working for them.
Okay, next news item.
Well, it fell apart week two of the 2023 season.
Yes.
Next news item, the Bears signed GM Ryan Polis
through a three-year extension.
Cool. San Francisco running back.
Kyle Juszczyk, their fullback.
He said, Christian McCaffrey looks incredible.
He looks so healthy.
He looks so explosive.
Jake, where is Christian McCaffrey in your rankings?
Back half of the first round.
If I'm at the 10th pick, maybe even ninth,
I'm strongly considering it.
I referenced the projections I was talking about earlier
and I even gave him 90% of the workload from two years ago,
which was also the ninth.
He was on the same workload pace last year
before he got hurt that he was from the previous season.
So even 90%, and he's still number one by a sizable gap
because he's Christian McCaffrey on the 49ers.
So I bring up the 90% to say that like,
it would take 75, 80% Christian McCaffrey
to not be the number one running back
if of course he plays 16 17 games
But 16 games
That's why the risk is associated with him not being a top three for running back back half of the first round is because now
We're baking in some of that risk where we weren't last year with the first pick
Jamie let me talk to you. Let's talk about Joanne Jennings here is Adam Schefter tweeting that Joanne Jennings
Wants a new contract or a trade little bit of a wild offseason for the 49ers. So your thoughts on this?
I mean, we got to see how it plays out. You know, he I think the report said he's going
to follow IUK's path and be a hold in. So he's going to report and then just not take
part in any activities. And if you recall, he was maybe setting this up, who knows, I don't want to speculate
on injuries, but that he missed either OTAs or mini-camp one of the two with a calf injury.
So is he actually hurt or is he just, oh, I can't get out there because I'm waiting
for something to happen.
And so we'll see how this plays out.
I doubt the 49ers move on from him.
They very much need him with Brandon Iyuk not being expected to start the season because
of the knee injury. So will they maybe give him a boost in salary? The
Shepter story that came out was the John New Smith situation because it's very similar
and Smith got a one-year, $12 million extension with the Steelers. Did the 49ers just rework
Jennings' deal and give him some added money he's expected to make seven and a half million dollars this year
So you could see something like that easily happening, but I mean we've talked about this lot I don't know where Jake feels or comes out on this but like
Pierce all in Jennings to me were very close to begin with because you know Jennings has been sort of their third guy their
Fourth guy, you know, he's he did very well last year in certain spots when he got the chance to shine
We all remember that week three game when there was no Debo or Kittle and he destroyed the Rams.
But he's been sort of there just, you know,
backup plan for many years.
And then the way that Pierce all finished the season
and obviously the investment and the capital
that they spent to draft him,
this is easy to move Pierce all ahead of Jennings now for me.
All right.
Just a few more news items.
I want to get to the QB tiers.
Someone said in the chat,
can you guys talk about all the second round picks that are unsigned? Yeah, very few have signed
right now. One of them, Trey Harris, Chargers rookie wide receiver. He did not report to
training camp. I think he was he a third round pick? Maybe a third round pick, but he did not
report to training camp. They're the first team to report to training camp. Second round pick.
The Chargers first team to report to training camp, they're rook. The Chargers, the first team to report to training camp, their
rookies. So this week, you're going to get some teams with
rookies reporting. In fact, a lot of teams open up rookie mini
camp, rookie training camp tomorrow. But the Chargers did
it on the 12th. And Trey Harris is not there. I don't really
know what the make of it. It's just most second round picks
haven't signed. It'll happen. Jalen,
the biggest one obviously is Judkins. Because yeah, true.
Dealing with this situation.
Like how much are the Browns concerned about this?
And do they try to maybe get out of it?
Jalen Waddell is working on his hand-eye coordination.
He said he was trying to move without the ball too much.
And let's see, Jacob Robinson of the Athletic says,
expect an offense heavy start for Travis Hunter.
Which quarterback tier, Jamie,
do you usually find yourself drafting from?
The tier of Mayfield, Nix, and Dak.
That would be tier three.
And the one after with Fields, Kyler, and Caleb.
Tiers three and four, Mayfield, Nix, Dak is tier three, Fields, Caleb, Kyler, and Tier four.
Jake, how about you?
Which tier do you usually find yourself drafting from
at the quarterback position?
So my tier three is much larger than Jamie's,
so I'll kind of like,
I think the better answer might help
because our tiers are gonna differ throughout,
and I mean, a lot of people's tiers will differ,
is I either go first or last.
If I would love to get a top four or five quarterback, if I would love to get a top four or five quarterback, tiers are going to differ throughout. And I mean, a lot of people's tiers will differ. I either go first or last.
I would love to get a top four or five quarterback
if it happens to fall in what I consider value.
I know some people's values will differ.
But if I don't get one of the top four or five,
then I'm waiting till the end game,
because I'm not going to take Bakers in the same tier
as Drake May or Kyler Murray is May.
I'm not going to.
Yeah, so that's what I'm saying.
I have a very large tier. I'm just going to wait the end game take a quarterback there because I'm not gonna spend
an eighth round pick when I consider the same value quarterback there in round 13. And just
let's make it clear because we always need to that it's uh six points for passing touchdowns
is what we go by as opposed to four so that could alter how obviously people are viewing things. Right. Right. Because Jake, yours are four point.
Yeah. Okay. There's small differences.
Yeah, sure. Um, I don't, you know, we're going to do a quarterback preview in a few weeks. So I
don't want to do the same show. Luckily for that show, we'll have either Dave or Heath or both.
But, um, unless they're on vacation. Yeah, right. For the rest of the week or one more day or
whatever it is. Um, to me, I mean, I love quarterback so much this year. I don't even
consider a strategy right now. It's just when it feels right. I'll take, I kind of like
what you said, Jake, if one of those top five quarterbacks is there, it's just feels like
this is the right time. I don't love the other options. Bam. I'll take them. If I have to wait until two of my three last picks
or something to take a quarterback,
I feel like I can get by with that.
It's just a super deep position.
And I will get into more of that in a moment,
but more important matters at hand.
We have now eclipsed the $2,000 mark.
If you go to tinyurl.com slash 2025 FFT,
you can see the tracker.
We're up to $2,261 that we've raised for St. Jude.
The bulk of it will come when the FFT open spots
are made available.
And that will be a week from today,
probably sometime in the evening,
maybe in the 7 p.m. range or something.
I don't have an exact time yet, but we'll keep you updated.
But go to tinyurl.com slash 2025 FFT
and you can see what there is to bid on or to purchase.
So we did the mailbag on Friday.
We've got 10 more available every week
for a Friday mailbag.
Two of them have been purchased,
but there are eight mailbag questions
available to purchase for Friday and they are at $50 each. And now every week, we're going to be
doing a mock draft that you can be a part of. So if you want to be part of the mock draft on July 22nd
at 7 PM Eastern, that is next Tuesday night. So that's $50 per spot. And every week, we're
going to have a featured spot for $150 where you get to be in the mock draft
and an expert is going to grade your draft
and you know, give you, when the draft's over,
give you some extra value there for your purchase.
But again, it all goes to St. Jude.
So be part of next Tuesday's mock draft
or be part of our mailbag and stay alert for the FFT Open
which Jake, thank you so much for being a part of this year.
You're going to have to feel fill out the Sealy division with 11 of your
fanatics, but not the all in division.
Can't even like be whatever you want the all in division. I love that.
But thanks for, we appreciate so much you helping us out with this.
No, of course I love,
I love helping every single year and finally not finishing last in the St. Jude league that we do.
The chapter that we do.
Because I refuse to take a kicker.
Oh, this is so crazy, man. The stubbornness. I love it. I love it. Hey, hot take here because
you have Raphael on your shirt. And I was thinking about this the other day. Every kid's
favorite Ninja Turtle is Raphael, right? I mean, like it's gotta be a solid 80%.
80%.
80%.
Oh, I would totally disagree with that.
Really?
I think it's Leonardo.
Of course it's Leonardo.
Leonardo?
Yeah.
What?
He's such a goober.
Like there's nothing cool.
Or Michelangelo.
All right, we'll do it at Twitter poll here.
I just gonna say.
I'm genuinely curious.
The reason like I liked Raphael
because he's kind of ornery and sarcastic and like that kind of humor,
which was coming from my family up north. And I actually got stuck with it anyway. Like I wasn't
even allowed to choose when we were playing the arcade game. Like, well, you are Raphael. He
actually has the worst weapons in the game because you got to get so close.
Oh gosh, I'm going to do a bunch of spell check here. Michael, Angelo.
I was going to say, he's such a bad influence for kids.
This is the one Ninja Turtles, he's such a liability.
He gets them into trouble all the time.
He really needs to be reined in.
Do we need to go down this?
I actually have a signed copy comic
of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles,
but he actually saves the day more often than not.
But he starts all the problems.
So the day wouldn't even have to be saved if it were for him to begin with.
You're thinking of like just a 90s cartoon.
There's a lot more.
We're not going to do it.
Everybody's just about to tune me out.
Like, oh, here comes the nerd.
You don't have to say about Raphael.
Sigh.
Get it?
All right.
We'll be right back after this.
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Bye.
Bye. Bye. Bye. Oh my God. We'll be right back after this.
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in participating McDonald's in Canada. Okay, welcome back. Tier one has five
quarterbacks in it. Jamie went with Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Burrow, Hertz
in tier one and then tier two has one lonely quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. Why did you
decide to make all five quarterbacks, Jackson, Allen, Daniels, Burrow, Hertz in one tier?
I thought about splitting them up, but I mean, you know, there's really when you look at
a bunch of different rank lists, you can make a case that the
order could go in a variety of different ways.
And depending on when they'll start to come off the board, it wouldn't be a surprise if
they're around a part.
So Burrow was the second quarterback last year in points per game and six points for passing
touchdowns.
Obviously, Jackson and Allen have been so tried and true.
Daniels is coming off an amazing season, looking at Heath's rankings, he has him first.
And obviously you know what you're getting from Hertz
from a rushing perspective when he's got 713 rushing touchdowns,
613 rushing touchdowns almost every year of his career.
So Hertz to me is closer to Mahomes
just based on what we saw last year.
But I think as we've sort of built our narrative
on our show at least, that Barclay's potentially going to have a step back from his production after all the work last year
That the passing game may be a little bit better in philadelphia and that should help jalen hurts
um, so I think all of them are clearly worth drafting as the
I think all of them are clearly worth being viewed as the potential qb1 this year based on how things can go
How do you see it? You see the five player tier also jake?
things can go. How do you see it? Do you see the five player tier also Jake? I do in six point. If we were talking the
four, Burrow would be kind of in a tier by himself. That's how I
have my rankings just because it's more reliant on his pure
arm and not that he can't do it to run for two or 300 yards,
but just the difference between those big four. So I'm with
Jamie on this one so far, we're starting off strong in the fact
that we're lockstep in this. Honestly, I think you can make an argument that Lamar Jackson could almost be in a tier of his
own. I know that they could all finish number one, but even if Lamar Jackson only threw for 32
touchdowns next year, he would still far away be the number one, whether it's four or six points.
So I think there's a case for that, but I do have the same five. Burrow actually leaps Jalen Hurts
if I switch my projections from four to six.
So that's why I'm with him on this.
Actually, I think,
or order's almost exactly the same, Jamie.
I go Daniels Allen outside of the other three.
Do you have Jackson as QB1?
No, by far.
It doesn't matter which format.
He's got a 30, 40 point gap in both formats for me.
Wow.
But Alan's been more consistent.
Over the last-
I don't want consistency.
No, but Alan's also been elite.
Jackson's had the two seasons where he's hit 30 fantasy points per game and six point per
passing touchdown leagues.
I don't think Alan's ever gotten quite there.
I think he's been close.
Right.
Which is why I would take that.
But I think each of the three previous years, Jack Allen's been better than Jackson.
Like 2024 was Jackson.
By like a point, like a point per game.
Like if I'm going to nitpick between points per game, it comes down.
And this is, I'm kind of leading this out because it's going to come into some of the
other discussions we have later with other quarterbacks.
Point per game means nothing to me.
If you can make that gap three or four points per game, I'm going to take that chance as in, again,
why I'm gonna be talking about some of the risks
I would take at quarterback later
versus somebody that I just know is consistent.
I probably would never have even a healthy two on my team.
I just don't see him getting inside the top 10.
That's kind of my point here is like,
I don't really care that you're consistent.
When we're talking about the same tier,
if I'm in a tier,
I'm going to take the guy who I think could jump out of that tier, if that makes sense.
Yeah, it does. I would say it's been more like a, I think kind of like a three point gap between.
So here's the problem with the Marjax in 2022 and 2023, he left two games mega early, scored almost no fantasy points, and it brought
down his points per game.
The same thing happened to Josh Allen this year, where he played one snap in week 18,
and it dramatically brought down his points per game.
So I'm looking at a website right now that has their points per game for every year of
their career.
It's kind of hard to compare them because you have to remove those games.
But I do think it's been, I would say about three points per game and six points per passing
such down leagues, probably more like two in four point from 2021 to 2023, Allen over
Jackson. So like the heights of Lamar Jackson are definitely better than the heights of
Josh Allen. But Josh Allen, you know, was, I think a clear number one guy
over Jackson before,
if we were having this conversation a year ago.
Coming off the year before, like with,
I think a different collection of talent too.
So this is also pre Derek Henry, which basically
the tide rises all boats type of situation.
I'm curious with Jamie, honestly, thanks.
Like you get what I'm saying. Like I'm not to say you're stupid to have Josh Allen number one,
but like, I just think if I'm going in this tier, if I'm grabbing a quarterback,
I would go after Lamar Jackson before any the other four even a second.
I think the thing that Jake and I probably based on what he's saying agree upon is like,
this is the easiest position to shoot for the highest ceiling.
And yes, like, if you and you can make a case for either one.
I mean, you know, they're, they're so awesome.
Uh, Jackson feels like with the coordinator change and the ability to
throw the ball a little bit more in there, you know, you think about like
the last three years, for example, like they bring in Zay Flowers,
they bring in the Andre Hopkins.
You know, they're talking about giving Isaiah likely a little bit more of a role,
which I think, you know, a little bit of a boost from a player standpoint at
this point compared to Andrews, but Andrews is still going to be such a good end zone
target for him.
There's so many options here for him to continue to be successful.
And if you're just looking at the two, like, okay, as Jake said, you're nitpicking.
Well, Josh Allen's receiving corps just continues to get stripped away.
You're talking about Elijah Moore as potential saviors. That doesn't make me excited about
Josh Allen. What makes me excited about Josh Allen is, to your point, it's consistency,
because he's going to give you that rushing production. It doesn't matter who's around him,
he's still been successful. That's why there are one and two. I know, again, you can make a case
for Jay and Daniels, as Heath has, that maybe he takes a significant step forward in year two and that
Obviously is is on the table, which is why I think he's in the top five and and again the top three for at least
The two of us I'm sure for you as well Adam, you know
He's up there with burrow also in six points for passing touchdown. So
In this tier like I want the guy who I think is going to be the best and in my opinion is Lamar Jackson
So if you're going to reach for a quarterback, you should be taking Lamar. Hot take in this, in every tier, I want the guy who I think
is going to be the best. I didn't mean to say that you should settle for Josh Allen. I just want to
make the point that even if you remove the injured games for Lamar Jackson, uh, in two of the previous
three seasons, Josh Allen was better than him three straight years. So that's just, that was my point,
but I-
Also a different scheme back then too.
Yeah, look, I think Todd Malkin,
Todd Malkin has been great for Lamar Jackson.
He's averaged eight and 8.8 yards per attempt in two seasons.
I think Zay Flowers has been great for him.
Again, I'm not gonna call anyone stupid
for taking Jackson number one.
I just wanted to make that point, that's all.
And someone says, I feel an Azerstat coming on. Oh yeah. So again, right? Like you look,
you just look at points per game from last year, in my
opinion, doesn't work. You got it. You got to remove the
partial games. Jane Daniels, two partial games week seven, he
left with an injury week 18. He just left. Josh Allen, one
snap, no stats in week 18. Jalen hurtsts, week 15, he played like 15% of the
snaps or something. You remove all those games. Here's how it looks per game in four point per
passing touchdown leagues among those five quarterbacks. Jackson one, Allen two, Daniels
Hurts, Burrow. That's four point Jackson Allen, Daniels Hurts, Bur burrow remove those games in six point per passing touchdown leagues
Jackson won burrow to
Allen hurts
Daniels as it is it Allen
Daniels hurts actually
Yeah, so burrow was the biggest difference there. He was number five per game and four point number two per game in six point
All right tier two Jamie is kind of funny. I think it's just Patrick Mahomes.
Talk about that.
I mean, you know,
I use the phrase bridge player for a lot of positions and I think he's sort of
the bridge quarterback because you look at the guys after him,
there's a lot of questions. Can Baker do it again? Is Dak healthy? You know,
is Nick's going to be able to repeat, you know,
you start to go down the sliding scale with the running quarterbacks of, you know, Drake
May and Justin Fields and some of these guys, can they ascend to a tier above or, you know,
a certain level of production? For me, like Mahomes, it's more hope at this point than
there is like, okay, he's going to do this. And the hope is that you finally have this
receiving core that we liked last year. And in some cases a lot of people loved last year,
and now you get to see it because you hope that Rice is healthy, you hope that Marquise Brown stays healthy,
and obviously Xavier Worthy builds on what he did last year with Travis Kelsey back.
And so he's motivated again. I saw something, somebody wrote recently, will they sleepwalk through the regular season again?
That could obviously be the case. I mean, you know, that's the that's the fear is like they,
okay, we're going to flip the switch in November or December and start to, you know, look like
ourselves again. I don't know how much that works anymore, you know, and, and clearly it was
successful to get them to the Super Bowl, but their offense was just such a, I don't want to say
disaster. It was, it was frustrating to watch. It's boring. You know, and do they want to continue
to put themselves in a situation where they have to bail themselves
out every fourth quarter? Clearly, it leads to a lot of drama and helps their TV ratings,
which we love. But it also has got to be frustrating. And you see it. You hear it in Mahomes when
he talks. You hear it in Andy Reid when he talks. They were not the same team that we
saw at the beginning of this marriage of Mahomes and Reid. And I think they're trying to get
back to it. I think they tried to last year, it just didn't work because of injuries.
And so it's for me more of a hope that, and as I wrote in the story, Mahomes can easily
get back into the tier one conversation.
ESPN just released their poll of executives ranking quarterbacks and he's still number
one.
There's no denying what his talent level is.
But fantasy-wise, he's been a disaster the last two years.
So, uh, it's again, more of a hope than a guarantee.
And I think just from a value perspective, like the tier one guys,
I think depending on how you draft quarterbacks, they're all in the top four or five rounds.
The tier two and beyond, like, I don't want to touch them till around six or later.
And so if you get my homes at a value, I'll buy in,
I'm not reaching for them this year
and I think you're making a mistake if you do.
First of all, you called him a disaster the last two years
and I want to thank you for that
because if Heath were here, he'd be like,
well, he wasn't really, no, he stunk.
He's been barely inside the top 12 on a per game basis
each of the last two years.
2023, he was a top 15 pick in drafts.. 2023 he was a top 15 pick and drafts,
2024 he was a top 30 pick and draft.
Good for you for having the courage to say it, Jamie.
He's been a bust two straight years.
Now, if he's QB 11 per game and you draft him
in the sixth round, he just does what he did last year,
the last two years, it's not so bad.
You know, it's probably gonna be a little disappointed with it,
but it's not so bad.
How do you feel about Mahomes, Jake?
Yeah, I agree, especially with the last statement
that Jamie said is that I'm not taking him early like that.
And I think that's why this is where we would differ.
I have him in the next tier.
I have a next tier with a whole bunch of other names,
basically because I think at this point
of who the Chiefs are, his ceiling
is maybe fifth or sixth, like behind that tier still.
Like I don't know if he gets back there.
I just don't know if they need him to mostly because of also a little bit different offense
that they run now, especially with the aging Travis Kelsey.
And I know having Rashid Rice back for this season will help, but it's also changed in
a bit and maybe this backfield just ends up completely being a waste and Pacheco is never back to himself and they do end up having
to pass more, but even so, you know, I keep comparing it to like the
Golden State Warriors, the height of their runs is like, yeah, we're
just going to get to the playoffs.
We don't even need Steph Curry every single game.
Like we're just going to get there and then we know when to turn it on
and click and go, uh, maybe last year not coming all the way through with that.
That changes things for them and they get a little bit more oomph in the season I don't
know but I think the one thing that Jamie kept saying there is hope and I
agree with him there's hope that he gets back he was actually behind Jared
Goff by almost two points per game last year he was behind Bo Nix he was in line
with Brock Purdy and I'm not saying he can't get back past them again but I
don't think he gets back past them enough
to jump out of a tier with.
I agree with Jamie, there's a lot of risk with Baker Mayfield,
but Baker Mayfield was like five points per game
better than last year.
Like to have them just flip is, I could see it happening,
but I have them in the same tier.
So who's your second tier, Jake?
My second tier was the Joe Burrow,
unless we're doing this, he jumped into the tier one.
So for six point per, I would say six point per touchdown, he is tier one.
So we would be talking tier two.
My tier two, you're going to have to like pause for a second here because it's a big
list.
It's Baker, it's Baker Fields, Bo Nix, Mahomes, Caleb Williams, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott,
Drake May and Brock Purdy.
Makes sense. I mean, I totally, I get exactly where you're coming from.
And Jamie's makes sense too,
because Mahomes could still be a 5,000 yard passer
or something like that.
And he's still Mahomes.
Like I'm not coming from Jamie for this question,
but I like, what's the difference between
hoping Mahomes gets back there
or Dak Prescott staying healthy now with George Pickens as his number two as somebody who has been top five mostly
on his arm, especially in six point per game.
And that's why, like I said, that's why I would keep him in that tier.
Oh, I, like I said, I agree.
It's not a, it's not a Mahomes is significantly better than Dak and, and you know, kind of
to Adam's question, like which tier am I drafting in? You get Dak so late still. You know, I don't think there's been the market
correction yet, maybe because we're waiting to see how healthy he is in camp, even though
the report says he's fine. That he'll sort of be in that same range as we're like where
Baker and Bo Nicks are going. No, you're right. There's not a big difference. And again, you
know, you're looking at a graphic.
Explain it obviously a little bit different in the story.
And as I said before, Mahomes is closer to those guys in tier three for me or tier four
in some cases than he is to the guys in tier one right now.
It's strictly based on hope.
Like Adam said, he could still be a 5,000 yard passer.
Like I explained, the receiving court could significantly boost his value up.
But I think if anybody's looking at it and saying, okay, Mahomes, just because of how he is as
an NFL quarterback, like they don't match up anymore.
You know, I think that's where Heath's argument still comes in.
Like they just, the production does not match the fantasy production, you know.
So he will win games, he will save teams.
He said this last year, it's still applicable.
You tell me right now, Patrick,ollins has to go get a touchdown
in the fourth quarter unless he's playing
the best of the best.
He's gonna go get it.
Yeah, so-
He just don't do that for four quarters.
By the way, Prescott right now,
he is QB nine in CBS ADP.
That's not a ton of drafts yet.
Fantasy pros, he's QB 13.
He's going 111th.
Football guys, he's QB 15th.
And he's going after pick 100 in almost every league. 100, 111th football guys. He's going to be 15th. And he's going after pick 100 in almost every lead.
100 111.
I think his ADP will be.
Yeah. So if you guys really like Dak Prescott that much,
he looks like an early steel.
All right. So that's a tier one and two with Mahomes
by himself for Jamie and tier two.
Tier three brings us to Baker Mayfield,
Bo Nix and Dak Prescott.
And Jamie, this is the first thing you answered,
when I said which tier are usually in,
you said this one.
We said three and four, but we'll split them up.
So three is Mayfield, Nix, and Prescott.
Four is Fields, Caleb Williams, and Kyler Murray.
Mayfield, Nix, Prescott.
What separates them from the guys behind them?
The guys behind them is more,
not to keep using
the word hope, but like you're hoping Justin Fields can do what he's done really, essentially
every time he's been a starter. Caleb is the hope that Ben Johnson and the offensive line
improvements help him take a step forward. And Kyler just the hope that he kind of gets
back to what he was a little earlier in his career. I do like the fact that he's going
to run more. I think the case for Baker and Nixon Prescott is, in the case of the two veterans, it's
hard to argue that Baker takes a significant step back.
There's going to be regression.
Obviously, he's coming off a career season.
You lose Liam Cohen.
Now you don't have Tristan Wurst for four games, at least four games.
There's reason to be concerned.
But then you look at Godwin back and hopefully healthy and the addition of a buka and a team
I think that has shown especially with Jason light there the general manager
Even Todd Bowles is depending how you feel about him like they've cycled through now three offensive coordinators
You hope that this guy is now going to continue to be
At least something similar to what the last two have been where Baker has performed at a high level
You're hoping that Mike Evans stays healthy. You're hoping that Godwin again healthy
Like there's just so much to like about Baker situation now granted the fumbles were problem. I think he's gonna have more turnovers this year
Will he run as much and have as much success running?
That's a concern
But you know when you start to stack them up and again format absolutely matters here because we're talking four points
Justin Fields is a tier above Kyler Murray's probably a tier above and the running production that you get from them and even Drake May,
you know, pushes those guys up but in six points, I think to overlook Baker having another 40
touchdown season and maybe close to 4500 yards, I can't see it not happening if, you know, sort of,
I don't say everything's perfect, but you know, there's clearly the opportunity for him to be
4035 and that's hard to overlook.
you know, there's clearly the opportunity for him to be 4035 and that's hard to over.
For you, yeah.
Four thousand, so I'm glad you said four thousand.
I was just kind of looking this morning,
four thousand passing yards in a 17 game season.
How good is that?
But it's good.
It's gonna be something like 11th.
They've looking at just the amount of quarterbacks
who average that many passing yards per game,
which would be a pace of four thousand.
You know, it's good. When you start getting to like 4,200, 4,300 yards, then we're talking big stuff here,
which obviously Baker Mayfield can do.
He threw for 4,500 yards in 17 games last year.
And he also finished 20, 23 really strong in his last seven games, including the playoffs.
He averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game in six point
per passing touchdown leagues. That is awesome. I mean, that's going to be top three or four
most years. And then in 2024, he, how many did he average that year? Like even more than
that Baker Mayfield 26.2. So basically since this is, they got Chris Godwin going in the
latter half of 2023,
Baker Mayfield's been amazing.
I'm gonna-
I think one thing that we talk about a lot,
I don't think we bring up the other side of this.
Like we continue to praise Baker.
Oh my God, he managed through those four games
without Mike Evans when Chris Godwin was out.
Imagine if he had those guys.
Yeah, well, one thing they did in those games though
was they found their run game.
They became a little run out.
But I'm just talking about him.
Like, yeah, right.
He was sort of living again, six points.
He was living in that 20 point per game range because Kate Otton was having a great stretch
and he was running the ball well.
He got a couple of Russian touchdowns during that stretch.
Imagine if Scott went state healthy.
Yeah.
Like, and Evans did not miss those four games.
Now, granted, it's going to happen to every quarterback.
I'm sure has. We just got finished talk about my homes losing, you know
Rashi Rice and Marquise Brown for the majority of the season like every quarterback is gonna have their issues
But like he was he was playing so well
Those got got him for the season Evans for four games now again
You could say Jalen McMillan sort of stepped in and gave you that production the end of the year. Okay fine
But like the way that those two guys were playing, we may have seen a 5,000 yard season
for Baker.
All right.
I just want to take a break.
I'm going to throw it to Jake to talk about Mayfield, Nix and Dak and anyone else in his
giant tier.
And we'll be right back on fantasy football today. No sugar added.
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Welcome back.
I have a lot to say about Baker Mayfield, but I'm not going to do it here because I
take up the whole show.
So I want to hear what Jake has to say about Baker Mayfield, who was the number three quarterback
per game last year and six point per passing touchdown leagues and number four and four
point.
Yeah, I still have them starting this tier for me.
I think that the Liam Cohn thing is warranted,
but maybe it's not as big as people are making out to be.
Part of what Jamie says, this is somebody who's been dealing
with multiple offensive coordinators and every time
comes through checking the box since he made
his career change back to being good.
And most of the coaches,
the new offensive coordinators promoted within,
he's stepping up from being underneath Cohn. I don't think you're going to see a lot of changes
and of course of course Bowles with the extension this coaching staff is pretty much intact except
for Cohen and as Jamie I love I was about to say it's like Evans is back Godwin expected to be
healthy for week one there's a lot of talk about that even if not you know the Bucca Macmillan from
last year they just have weapons to make up for everything.
Like if you lose one, there's gonna be one that steps up, especially in this offense. And to go to what you said, to throw out a number,
I think that kind of gets overlooked as I'm more looking for the touchdowns
and that's one of the things the Buccaneers do is they will
continue to pass in the red zone and with inside the 10 in the green zone if you want to call it that.
But the yards, to make a point per game, point, just one point
per game difference, to throw 400 extra yards,
because that's 25 yards over 17 games, 25 yards is one point,
it's a big bump to do that every single week
over the course of the season.
So I'm saying, I'd rather see the touchdown equity,
and that's why I would still start with Baker Mayfield.
But that's also why I had the conversation about Dak earlier, and that's why I like him in this group. I would still have Justin
Fields a little bit higher than Jamie, just because I think going to the Jets, I don't have to worry
about him losing the job outside of injury. And if he's playing the game the entire year, thousand
rushing yard ups and sides. So I don't need Justin Fields to throw those touchdowns I just talked
about because it'll be so offset by the rushing upside
We saw it before when he was on that thousand yard pace having a miserable passing season like look at those numbers
They're gross. They're worse than Dino Jones did when he ran for 707
And yet he still finished as QB six or seven even in six past six point per passing touchdown because he just ran so much
Yeah, every time Justin Fields is a starter,
he's a top 12 guy.
Actually, and I threw this out on another show.
You know the two games that he threw last year
with his fantasy points,
he had over 20 points per game,
Justin Fields in that games combined,
he threw for one touchdown.
His two biggest games was one total touchdown passing.
My beef with Fields is that it is so inconsistent.
He is gonna drive you crazy
because he could have three weeks in a row
where he struggles and you're going,
man, do I start Justin Fields at this point?
And then he goes for 40 points.
You know, you have to stick with him.
You have to stick with him.
He has QB1 upside on a week to week basis,
but he's just a little bit inconsistent.
You're not wrong about that.
If you draft Fields,
this goes back to Deshaun Jackson
back in the day.
If you draft them, you keep them in your lineup
because you can't predict the good and the bad.
It's not like Deshaun Jackson only
went off against bad defenses.
It was he could go up against the worst possible match
he could find, and he still goes off,
but then he doesn't show up against the miserable Giants.
Same thing with fields.
It'd be like, oh my gosh, they're
facing the Panthers defense.
And he does nothing, and then he goes out there and tortures the chiefs or something.
Right.
That's he can run on anyone.
Right.
So, um, so Jamie, you got Mayfield, Nixon, Prescott in tier three fields, Caleb
Williams and Kyler Murray in tier four.
Jake, do you see any, you know, any qualms, I guess, with the separation there?
It's obviously not a big separation
But your thoughts no because to roll if you roll back the tape and listen to my tear the only two names missing
Aren't here like they're there actually there are 13 or 14
I should say like the last two names I mentioned are the only two names missing from Jamie's tears here
So I have no problem with this because this would be my six. I have those same six
Everybody's pretty much sold on Bo Nix.
Before we move on, are you guys sold on Bo Nix?
Sold, no.
I don't think there's that much more risk than Justin Fields,
honestly.
Like, we've seen quarterbacks go into year two and regress.
I just have more faith.
It's not even Bo Nix.
I have more faith in Sean Payton's building this team.
And it is now pretty much, I want to say 100%, but it's pretty damn close to being, it is a Sean Payton's building this team and it is now pretty much, I want to say a hundred percent, but it's pretty damn close to being,
it is a Sean Payton team and no, he is not Drew Brees.
But you even saw it with the drafting of Pat Bryant, who I wasn't a huge fan of,
but going to this team afterwards is like, oh, he just got his new Michael Thomas,
Marquis Colston and no, Patrick Bryant is not the level of those players.
I'm just saying the makeup of what Patrick Bryant does is like he's going out there
and he's building all these pieces
and it's basically a different version of his Saints.
Like there are RJ Harvey with Alvin Kamara
and none of the players seem to be of like,
you don't have Alvin Kamara,
you don't have Marquis Coles to Michael Thomas.
You don't have Jimmy Graham,
but you have like the tier two versions to talk tiers.
You have the tier two versions of all of them
and he's just building this team to be what Sean Payton does well. Okay and you know
what those guys they weren't drafted. No one thought that they were gonna be
stars basically. Maybe Michael Thomas but Kamara no. I mean Marcus Colson was a
seventh round pick. Jimmy Graham. Michael Thomas wasn't even thought of that
highly. He was a second round pick but Jimmy Graham was- No, Michael Thomas wasn't even thought of that highly.
Not to the level that he was-
He was a second round pick, but right,
he wasn't thought of as a star.
Jimmy Graham was a converted power forward.
Played one year, I think, of tight end, maybe two.
So, Sean Payton gets the most out of his players.
Eyebrows were raised when he drafted Bo Nix,
and he did well with it.
He made it really simple for Bo Nix.
Bo Nix was pretty awful in the intermediate areas
of the field, but didn't do a lot of it.
Threw a ton of screens, he threw some deep balls,
and it works.
So are you sold Jamie on Boenix?
I mean, to a certain extent,
Jake said exactly what I was gonna say.
It's the belief in Sean Payton,
and finding a guy that he knows is going to get the ball to the places that Sean Payton and, you know, finding a guy that he knows
is going to get the ball to the places that Sean Payton asked him to get the ball to.
And so I think, you know, to your point, Adam, about the middle of the field, well, that's
what they went out and got Evan Ingram.
And they got somebody that can make those type of plays and make easy throws for Bo
Nicks in that area of the field.
The biggest thing is, and you bring this up a lot, is how much will he run?
You know, and will he be a 400
yard rusher? Will he be a 500 plus yard rusher? Will he be a 200 yard rusher? You know and
I think that's the biggest question because he stopped running as the year went on. He
was running a little bit more earlier in the season. I think his profile suggests around
400 yards. You know if he can get you a couple rushing touchdowns you're going to be thrilled
with that. The biggest thing is will he keep the true running quarterbacks sort of at bay
a little bit behind him if you're drafting?
So if you believe in Fields, if you believe in Kyler, if you believe in, again, Drake
May, you're probably going to pass on Bo Nix because he is going to still be expensive
comparatively to, let's say, Dak Prescott or even Justin Fields.
I think people sort of, in some cases, have him as QB6, head of Mahomes and head of Baker.
So there's a lot of, you know,
risk still with Nick's but to exactly what Jake said, this is a strong offensive line. This is a
run game that's going to get better and support him, which could take away some production. Just
keep that in mind. But I do think that Sean Payne's blueprint is now all over this offense. And
the only real concern to be honest, and this is a guy I'm drafting a lot of is Cortland Sutton's
contract going to become a problem. You know, is he going to show up and and there's a guy I'm drafting a lot of is Cortland Sutton's contract gonna become a problem
You know, is he gonna show up and say I want to get paid because that's something that's been mentioned
He says he wants to stay with the Broncos and retire Broncos
So seems like everything right now is fine
But as Joanne Jennings just showed us today, you know, they're these these stories will still be a problem
Terry McCormick still be a problem for example
So just keep an eye on that situation because that'll maybe that'll make me concerned a little bit about them to bone next as much
As Bryant could be a fit and Ingram could be a fit,
like they need Sutton there to at least help the high end
production of next based on what we've seen from him
in two years with, in two years of Sean Payton, you know,
18 total touchdown.
So I'm hoping there's no issue with Sutton and then
Nix is firmly planted in tier three for me.
Okay.
Tier four real quick is fields. We've talked about Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray.
And I did see a comment that was like, really Caleb Williams? So Jamie, you want to talk about
why you have Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray in tier four? Again, this is a position you
shoot for upside. And I'll say the word again, hope. It's the hope that Caleb Williams is the
former number one overall pick in the 2023 draft, draft excuse me can take advantage of three upgraded and an offensive line is upgraded
with three I think significant players mostly Ben Johnson two new weapons added in in Loveland and
Burden and you know showing some of the uh the the the upside plays that we saw last year, which, you know, unfortunately just came in some small spurts. But again, if he hits, that's the reason why you're
drafting him to be a borderline top 10 quarterback is going to be a top five guy. I think that's
a lot to ask. But I'm hoping Ben Johnson's system will be great for Caleb Williams. I'm
hoping the production, which was nonexistent for Williams last year, will keep him from
being sacked 60 times. I'm hoping that these play was non-existent for Williams last year will keep him from being sacked 60 times
I'm hoping that these playmakers will make plays for him because of what Ben Johnson will allow them to do
So, you know if you're looking for safety
There's Jared Goff and Brock Purdy, you know, and and they're solid obviously golfs coming off a strong season and Purdy
You know showed with a healthy Christian McCaffrey and helping guys around him like he can be a 23-point per game guy
There's Tua there's you know other upside guys Drake may Trevor Lawrence, you know with his changes
You know, there's a lot of different ways you can go in this spot
But I'm gonna take a chance on Caleb Williams and I'm probably gonna back him up rather quickly
You know, you can do a Dak Caleb pairing and be fine
It's easy to do, you know draft those two guys
So if you're going to go the complete route that I think Jake alluded to earlier, you know, draft those two guys. So if you're going to go the complete route that I think Jake alluded to earlier, you know, if you're not going to, you know, take
one of the top five guys, like take swings on two guys later, two guys with upside, Caleb
for me will be one of them if I have the opportunity to do so.
All right. Let's go to tiers five and six and take a look at Jared golf and Brock Purdy
are in tiers five and six. So I think it's pretty obvious. You look at tier four of fields,
Caleb and Kyler Murray. I think you look at five, tier five, it's golf and Purdy are in tiers five and six. So I think it's pretty obvious, you look at tier four of Fields, Caleb, and Kyler Murray,
and then you look at five, tier five,
it's Gough and Purdy for Jamie,
and you see a lot less mobility, a lot less rushing.
Oh, but Brock Purdy, to give him some credit,
did do quite a bit of running last year.
Let's see, where was he at?
He was over 300 yards, if I recall.
He had 323 rushing yards in only 15 games,
on pace for 366 rushing yards and six touchdowns. It looked pretty
damn spry out there. It was surprising. So if you can get
back to 350 plus rushing yards might have to be reconsidering
Purdy's upside. golf had a huge finish to the season ended up
having a really good year. So that's tier five golf and Purdy.
Jake, any any comments on where you have golf and pretty I think I only heard Purdy's name in that big tier five, golf and Purdy. Jake, any comments on where you have golf and Purdy?
I think I only heard Purdy's name in that big tier of yours.
You did.
Yeah.
Mostly, I can see the argument for golf in six point,
passing touchdown.
I mean, that's gonna be a little bit of a difference.
He starts the next year for me in four points.
So I don't have a big problem with that.
Purdy, as Jamie kind of alluded to there too,
just came off where you could argue his worst season
and was still just outside of being QB1.
So assuming that he has some kind of a collection
at Y receiver that's better than last year
and a healthy Christian McCaffrey,
you should only see stock up.
Yeah, the name that he hasn't mentioned yet was Drake May,
but he's in the next year.
I mean, Jared Goff threw for 4,629 yards and 37 touchdowns and he was QB eight per game.
So it's just, it's hard when you do nothing on the ground, you know?
And Morton's come in and said like, he's going to do a lot of what they've done already,
but they, he, it doesn't sound like a massive change.
He says you'll see some small things, which probably means they're bigger than what the
average fan will say.
Like I'm not talking down. I'm just saying when you say small things, which probably means they're bigger than what the average fan will see. Like I'm not talking down.
I'm just saying when you say small things, there's probably more changes than like the
average person will see.
Just does that mean more of a lean on the backfield with Gibson Montgomery?
Does it mean maybe golf takes a hiccup in his early season?
Because you go back to another pocket passer, and I'm not saying Eli Manning for fantasy
purposes is Jared Golf.
I'm just Eli Manning, when they had offensive coordinator change that one year was even talking like this is big to change the playbook and
It took him six to eight games to really get comfortable and then you saw him better in the second half again
I'm not worried that it's gonna be that effect for golf
But just what if it's a little bit of a hiccup and that's why I think the risk is you got to inflate some of
That when it's all on the arm
the risk is you've got to inflate some of that when it's all on the arm.
Uh, Jamie, tier six is Trevor Lawrence, Drake, May and JJ McCarthy.
Someone had a comment, you know, how can you have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and, and TJ Hawkinson so high at their positions and, and he was still
looking for JJ McCarthy and here he is.
JJ McCarthy in tier six, but Lawrence, Drake, May and McCarthy in tier six
after golf and purdy in tier five. but Lawrence, Drake, May and McCarthy in tier six after golf and
Purdy in tier five. So Lawrence, May, McCarthy. Now you heard Jake talk about May. We'll talk
about that in a second here. But Jamie, for you, why is Caleb Williams two tiers ahead
of Trevor Lawrence, Drake, May and JJ McCarthy?
Again, the hope that all these changes work out well for him. I have no problem putting
Lawrence and May in the same tier and McCarthy in the for him. I have no problem putting Lawrence and
May in the same tier and McCarthy in the same tier. I think you see the way I'm doing this. It's
sort of like jostling between upside and stability. And that's kind of the way I would tell people to
draft. It's almost like if you get the opportunity to take one of these swing for the fence as
quarterbacks, it makes sense to pair them with someone who's a little bit safer. You know, so you'll see in tier seven and beyond, like there's, you know, sort of
like this back and forth of how, you know, sort of view it.
But I think in the case of Caleb, it's more of if he hits.
I think his ceiling is higher.
I mean, again, you look at what Ben Johnson just did with a non mobile
quarterback, and I'm not saying that Caleb Williams is the most mobile
quarterback, but he now has the opportunity to do a bunch of
different things with a guy that can use his legs.
Jared Goff, there was no way he was going to do that.
So I think that's the fun of what Caleb Williams can be in this offense.
So look, the history of Bears quarterbacks is terrible.
They haven't had a 4,000 yard passer.
You're asking two rookies who are both dealing with injuries coming into camp, there was a report that Loveland shoulders better, but you have two rookies that I think a
lot of people are counting on to be significant playmakers. I know I am not discounting them,
hoping that they're going to come in and be big time contributors. You don't draft a tight end
with the 10th overall pick and not expect them to play right away. But DJ Moore has been up and down
in his career as we know. Romo Dunze had a disappointing rookie season.
There's a lot of ifs with Caleb Williams.
So if you don't like him significantly,
if you don't like him, pass on him easily
for Lawrence or May.
And May, strong rookie season at times.
Lawrence, again, hope that Liam-
Here, I'll give you one, Jamie, to the credit,
back to Caleb Williams,
because I didn't get to talk too much about him.
But when they made the offensive court,
well, they got rid of Waldron,
he was top 15 the rest of the season. And that's not like, oh my gosh, he was 15th.
But there was already an improvement last year.
Once they, you know, they made the change and got rid of what was the terrible
offense, not helping them at all.
Yeah.
He had the most rushing yards without a rushing touchdown for a quarterback.
And I even know how long it was.
It was something
crazy. Caleb Williams, 489 rushing yards and no touchdowns. So he's not a goal line guy.
He's not like that, but still there's, that was just really encouraging that he ran for
489 yards. So give him three or four touchdowns and we're talking here and I, you know, it's
some productive. Um, all right. So, so are you telling me that Trevor Lawrence,
Drake May and JJ McCarthy have more upside
as your tier six guys?
Do they have more upside than the sort of safe Jared Goff
on Brock Purdy in tier five?
In a lot of cases, yes.
I think it's easy to look at the more mobile guys.
I don't know what McCarthy is gonna be,
but as having more upside, especially in four point and six point.
I mean, you know, four point Drake, Drake may would be two tiers up.
That's what happens.
So really interesting though, because I still think that even if you felt that way, you
should draft someone else because like Brock Purdy and Jared Goff are gonna be on two of the best offenses in football if
Those offenses stay healthy
Purdy is probably going to lead the NFL in yards per attempt or be top three
That's just you could you could worry and I'm thinking this through as we're discussing
Where do you think Purdy gets drafted if Jennings is a holdout and I you kiss on the pop list? Yeah, it's a problem
I think he's gonna be,
he'll be 15 or something like that. I was gonna say 16.
The thing with Drake May,
like he got overlooked last year by a lot of people
is because he didn't start the season.
We're talking about somebody that has 800 rushing yard
upside and maybe he doesn't get there,
but on the ground he's still gonna,
it's gonna call his,
he's Josh Allen in the rushing department,
which possibly like,
you go back to, I bring up the 707 touchdowns
for Daniel Jones years ago, through 15 touchdowns
in 16 games and guess what?
He was a top 10 quarterback.
Like when you have that kind of rushing upside,
if it was only Drake May only having 400 yards,
the 49 he just brought up with Caleb Williams
and he still ran for four on the ground,
but that being the point, it was basically like half of what his ceiling is.
His ceiling is eight to 900 rushing yards.
Where even if, even if Stefan Diggs is not Stefan Diggs
or even out there to start the season,
even if Caleb Williams doesn't show up
in his rookie season,
even if it's the same mess that he had
at wide receiver last year,
a full season of him running just gives you such a floor
that, hey, if something clicks offensively, as Jamie's talking about this shoot for upside,
I talked about at the beginning, shoot for upside, he just has to be a mid-level capable
quarterback and he's going to be a QB one.
I don't see that upside.
My answer to that for Jake May is if you take his 10 healthy games, he was on pace for 630
rushing yards.
Actually, I have nine healthy starts for him. I removed three starts, four games overall,
but that was me with that was with me removing week 17 when he played 81% of the snap. So
you may have kept that one in, but it was still 625.
That's probably a full game.
Remember, it was the Chargers game where he left with the concussion with he got left
with a head injury, then he came back in. So the thing is like 19% of the snaps of a game for a quarterback could be major,
major production, but either way, 625 yards, 630 years, whatever highest yards per carry
for a running back for a quarterback since 2011. And that is why I don't see that same
rushing upside for Drake may cause he was on pace for let's just call it 630 rushing yards.
Maybe he rushes a lot more, but 81 carries.
That was his pace.
I think I want to clarify what like the upside being like there's two different things.
I want to clarify upside for one thing is do I project them as such?
No.
I said like I said ceiling because ceiling would be 800 and change.
Like do I necessarily think he gets there? Projection Lake wise, that's best case scenario. I would-
To me, last year was the best case scenario because he, he average 7.8 yards per carry,
which again, highest since 2011. The guys who did in 2011 were Michael, Vic and Christian Ponder.
I would say-
Vic had better have pondered and not.
The way, the way that I kind of view it is, I'm thinking around 500 yards rushing.
I do think that this offense in every facet has gotten better.
Play caller, significantly better.
Run game, better with Henderson's addition.
Receiving core, obviously better with Diggs and Kyle Williams.
So there's upgrades across the board the offensive line
I think we should be better because it was pretty disastrous last year. So, you know when you look at it a
lot of his runs were because everything was terrible, you know and
We don't hate that in fantasy. Yeah, I don't think the Patriots want to see that
Especially the game you referenced Adam where he took the concussion
So is he gonna run as much without design runs?
That remains to be seen. You know, Josh McDaniels doesn't necessarily have a history of using
of having running quarterbacks, you know, based on his track record. But there's still
a lot to like about what Drake may profiles as. And I think Jake's comp is, you know,
like a lesser version of Josh Allen. He can get a lot of rushing touchdowns if the offense
is better in those positions. And so, you know, we could be looking at 507, you know,
I think the 707 that you referenced with Daniel Jones is there, you know, he can do he can
do that. But I also think he's gonna take a step forward as a passer, you know, so can
he be in that 2223 point per game range? Absolutely. To me, Drake may is one of the best values
on drafting.
Right? No, I there's a lot to like about him. Um, turnover prone last year,
turnover prone in college. So that's what I'm keeping an eye on. But I'm just saying,
it's easy to be seduced by the upside of a guy like Drake may and to overlook, man, Jared
Goff and Brock Purdy are really good. They're the starters for the Lions and the 49ers. These teams will be among the NFL leaders in touchdowns. And Purdy ran for 350 yards last year, is on pace
for 360 rushing yards, whatever it was. Can't make that case for golf, but it's an interesting
decision. It's just an interesting decision to make. And I'm not going to tell you what
here. Yeah, sure. Exactly. I'm not going to tell you what to make, but it's just people have
different ways of looking at it
Tier 7 is interesting and and probably better
You know not probably certainly better tier 7 in a in a six point per passing touchdown league
Where these guys might all be really underrated and they're two a tongue of I loa Justin Herbert
Jordan love CJ Stroud and Matthew Stafford. In a four point per passing touchdown league,
Herbert will get you some rushing yards.
Stroud might get you around 200.
Tua and Stafford are giving you almost nothing.
Jordan Love is interesting because I think he can be
solid with his legs, nothing special.
But he sprained his MCL in week one.
He hurt his groin I think later in the year
against Jacksonville.
He was playing hurt, so his rushing total's completely sunk.
I think he's one of the most underrated players in fantasy this year, Jordan Love.
But tier seven does feel kind of like a six point per passing touchdown tier, Jamie.
Two tongue of I loathe, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, Matthew Stafford.
Again, Jake said it at the beginning of the show.
I think we're all in agreement.
It's such a deep position.
You don't have to reach for one of the top five guys.
To me, the biggest mysteries to some extent, who is Jordan Love in the Packers this year
and who is CJ Stroud in Texas?
Because 2023, we saw Jordan Love throw the ball all over the place and was healthy.
2024, we saw him injured and they get Josh Jacobs in their third worst and passing times
CJ Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in the last ten years and then everything falls apart
And he looks like a disaster and I think there was one offensive line ranking that came out this weekend that has the Texans
The worst so, you know, which which version of these two guys are we getting and to I mean look
2023 leads the NFL and passing yards
2024 misses six games back to having injury concerns Justin Herbert strong finish how much of the foot injury was a problem early in the season and
They drafted or they add two running backs that could significantly go back to being what a Greg Roman offense wants to look like
And Matthew Stafford's collecting ARP and Social Security at this point. So you know, like this is to me a very safe tier still has some upside. Can't argue that
there's not upside there, but I like the guys in tier six for their upside potential. And again,
if you want to wait in the position, I have no problem. Give me Trevor Lawrence and Jordan
Love to start my team and I'll make it work.
Yeah. And I think that's the difference between tier seven and then tier eight.
I don't think Jamie's going to tell you in a 12 team league, hey, make Michael Pennex
and Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young or Cam Ward, you're starting quarterback and you're fine.
Right. This is the end of that discussion of I waited really long and these guys are my
starters, starting quarterbacks. And by the these guys are my starters starting quarterbacks.
And by the way, the only one would be the Colts starter because both guys are going
to run. Obviously, Richard is going to run much more. But the upside of Anthony Richardson
is still like, it's hard to overlook as much as you may hate everything that he's done
so far and been frustrating about the injuries and the poor past attempts and all those things like there's still too much
fantasy upside to ignore so Richardson's a guy that could jump two tiers
basically if things you know work out for him in camp and he looks like the
job the work with Josh Allen's throwing coach and you know the shoulder injury
are not an issue like and the same for Daniel Jones to a certain extent he's
not gonna go much higher than this but he'll be in probably tier 8 if he's a
starter head of Richmond Jake when you look at tier 7 for Jamie to a certain extent, he's not going to go much higher than this, but he'll, he'll be in probably tier eight if he's a starter head of.
Jake, when you look at tier seven for Jamie to a Herbert love Stroud,
Stafford, who are your two favorites?
Stroud and love.
I go to Stroud and I brought this up when I was talking about some of the
off season changes for them and the fact that we saw Stroud last year, it
wasn't just the offensive line.
There's a lot of things going wrong, including the tank tail injury,
Stefan Diggs and all that type of stuff.
The one thing that I noted when watching Stroud last year
is that the one area of success
while under massive pressure all year long
was when he threw to Nico Collins.
And it's just, he still was a pretty,
actually mid-level passer
because that was the only guy he could throw to.
And this is a lot of wish casting here because we are talking about rookies and Christian Kirk
stepping in, but I thought Jaden Higgins could be kind of a Marvin Jones and then Dane Brugler at
the athletic compared to Nico Collins. And I was like, hell, you give CJ Stroud two Nico Collins'
even under pressure. He should be just fine. But I say wish casting because we are talking about
a rookie. His teammate, Jalen Noel is is gonna be battling probably behind Christian Kirk to start and I just think that if we get some type of health
Yes, the offensive line doesn't look like it made that much of an improvement even with their addition
I think that CJ Stroud is still capable enough under pressure
But similar to the golf argument that you were kind of making earlier is one we know the offense should be better
But they're both pocket passers.
They're both going to have to do most of it with their arms.
So there's just a lot more risk with Stroud.
But I'm willing to gamble on that,
and then it even gets close to two years ago.
And then love, just because we could
see what was the change.
You brought up the injury, Jamie, but also
this is also an offense that does like the pass more
than it did last year and was last year,
a microcosm of that injury carrying over to everything
and Jacob's just being effective.
The wide receivers getting hurt every single other week
and of course they add golden, but maybe a healthy love
and now even a little bit more wide receiver depth.
Although it seems like they have a bunch of twos
and still no one that Jordan Love does get back to.
He was a top 10 quarterback for a time
there. So those are my two, but I do like this tier. There's only one name that I didn't even
have in here and that's Jared Goff. But again, we talked about him earlier as Jared Goff's in
this tier with me, but six point passing touchdown. I agree with Jamie. He would get
boosted out of this tier higher. So Jamie, compare tiers eight and nine for me because tier eight is Penix Anthony Richardson Bryce Young
Cam Ward, we've got a lot of unproven players
Tier nine is the old folks
Gina older at least Gino Sam Darnold
He's not that old Aaron Rodgers Russell Wilson Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones again Gino Smith Sam Darnold Aaron Rodgers
Russell Wilson Joe Flacco and Daniel Jones, again, Gino Smith, Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Daniel Jones. What puts Pennex
Richardson, Bryce Young and Cam Ward ahead of Gino Smith, Sam
Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Daniel
Jones?
Upside for the guys in tier eight, and really not much for
the guys in tier nine. Again, Jones would get a little bit of
a boost if he's the starter. So I would put him in tier eight.
And obviously be concerned about Anthony Richardson. Look, Jones would get a little bit of a boost if he's the starter so I would put him in tier 8 and
Obviously be concerned about Anthony Richardson
Look Bryce young finished the season very strong last year
And I think the canalist influence after he was benched and the addition of Macmillan is gonna be big
You know so plus when he had Adam Thielen back at the end of the season
So you know you have a a very underrated and solid offensive line
You have some playmakers around him now.
If McMillan can sort of be that guy
that was drafted in the first round.
And so you see when I'm talking about upside, he's tier eight.
So it's not like I'm expecting him to come in
and be a consistent fantasy producer,
but Super Flex, two QB leagues,
like he's a good mid-round pick, late round pick,
depending on how those guys go.
Pennex, the team averaged over 30 points per game in the three starts that he made last year.
He has two solid, if not elite weapons.
Not elite, but he has two solid weapons.
One elite in Drake London and one solid guy in Darnal Mooney.
I think he created a play caller.
Plus, the defense is going to struggle, so I think he's going to have to throw the ball a lot.
I like his talent.
Cam Ward is completely based on hope.
Rookie quarterbacks, especially number one overall picks
the last two years have been disappointments,
but I still think there's a chance for him
to be an 18 plus point per game guy,
and six points for passing touchdowns.
So he's back end of this tier.
And then again, for Anthony Richardson, if he hits,
clearly this is a guy that we were drafting
as a top 10 quarterback last year.
It was a mistake.
He struggled. He took himself out of games
You know, I mean it was a disaster all the way across the board, but still too hard to overlook his rushing upside
So Gino Smith and Sam Donald, I think they're gonna hold on to the jobs the entire Rogers as well
Hold on to the job the entire season
Donald if he does struggle do we see Jalen Milroy? Maybe but I just don't think there's a lot of upside here
You know, I think we're talking ceilings of like 20 points per game.
You know, I think the Raiders are going to run the ball a lot. I think Seahawks want
to run the ball a lot. Obviously Rogers is 41 Russell Wilson clues his job. Flacka clues
his job. So there's, there's not a lot of high expectations for the, for the elderly
crew.
All right. And tier 10 is a bunch of guys who were hoping become starters at some point. Tyler Shuck should be hoping
they're just the backups. I think that you can know more
super flex or two QB leagues. Like if you're taking guys that
are not starting right now, this this is kind of where I put
this group plus the Saints quarterback. Yeah. Saints
quarterbacks Jackson Darts, Shader Sanders, Kirk Cousins,
Jalen Milro, Sam Howell. I was saying if you draft them, you're
hoping they become starters
because they don't have jobs as of now.
Jake, before we go, how many wins
for our New York Giants this year?
It hasn't been an hour in years, dude.
Don't put that evil on me, Ricky Body.
You're not a Giants fan anymore?
It's been years.
I don't know how many times I've had to reference this.
When they drafted Daniel Jones,
I said I'll give them one year to prove me wrong
and I was out on year two.
That is harsh.
You can go back and check the tape.
You just dropped your fandom?
You just dropped your fandom because of Daniel Jones?
Dropped them.
I don't care about him anymore.
Our organization makes so many dumb decisions.
I got out just like I did with the Chicago Bulls
10, 12 years ago.
If you're happy with being middle of the pack every single year, I don't want you as a sports
team.
Middle of the pack.
Boy, I would love that.
I know they would be happy to be middle of the pack.
My exact point.
So how many wins?
Uh, I actually think there'll be improvement this year.
I don't care.
You're not a fan.
I don't care anymore.
He did.
I want to go back and check the tape.
I think he just said our franchise though.
Our franchise.
No, I was saying it's not our franchise. I said don't put that evil on me.
No, no, no, no, no. After that part though, I think when you said, you said our franchise
has made so many bad decisions. See, just when he thought he was down, they pull him back in.
As I wear the Houston Texans shirt only because it has Raphael on it.
Okay, you get Raphael. Oh, let's check the Twitter poll, by the way.
Who's your favorite Ninja Turtle?
Oh, Raphael is, oh, he's in third.
Michelangelo pulling away at almost 40% of the vote.
And then the other three are basically tied.
All right, I'm sorry, give me a Giants win total.
Six and a half, they're gonna screw themselves out
of like any type of help again next year
and not even make the playoffs.
That's just what they do.
They just get used to it, Adam. You're going to be here for a long time.
I am used to it.
All right, Jake Seely, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Jamie Eisenberg, great stuff.
We'll see you on CBS Sports Network at 1pm Eastern. Go to PodcastsAwards.com and vote
for fantasy football today in the sports podcast category. Talk to you tomorrow on FF.
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