Fantasy Football Today - QB Tiers! The Value of the Mobile QBs (07/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 12, 2021

Which QB is most likely to jump up a tier or two before the season starts? Is it Jalen Hurts? An undrafted player like Sam Darnold? A Saints QB? We debate that to start the show and then get into the news and notes (6:15) on Saquon Barkley, C.J. Uzomah and more ... Does Patrick Mahomes have his own tier (12:00)? How do we appropriately value mobile QBs vs. pocket passers (17:15)? Compared to Kyler Murray, how much ground do Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have to make up with passing TDs? ... Find out why Dave and Heath have Russell Wilson in different tiers (26:00). And then they debate Ryan Tannehill and Brady (31:00) before revealing the rest of their tiers (39:00), the best late-round upside picks and advice for 2-QB leagues ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. It's Tears Week here on Fantasy Football Today. The good kind of tears, the fantasy football tears. And as we look at average draft position right now on NFC since June 1st, there's a clear top 13 with Joe Burrow at 91st overall. And then it's another 21 picks until you get to the next quarterback off the board,

which is, who is, any guesses? Any guesses? Deshaun Watson. Matthew Stafford. No, it is, he's actually 11th. It is Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence, 14th overall, Joe Burrow, 13th overall, 21 picks ahead of Trevor Lawrence.

We also have on NFC ADP, we have Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, and Joe Burrow all within 13 or 14 picks of each other. So that is an obvious tier right there. I'm going to ask you guys about your tiers. It's going to be fun. It's going to be great. Dave, welcome back. We missed you.

Missed you guys too. Good news to everybody out there. nobody's wife is in mediums i don't think i get that i'm not surprised should i get that do you get that i well i like i get what dave is saying yeah me too um i thought he was gonna make a me andy's reference but it was mediums so that's better oh is that oh conor mcgregor yes okay yeah no i i'm not i'm not hip enough i was actually watching i want to recommend everybody fear street surprisingly good i'm enjoying it so fear street yeah it's a horror trilogy on Netflix. Not great, but good.

My wife was out of town this weekend, and so I watched the Godfather trilogy again. Oh, excellent. And it's obviously fantastic. I'm going to say something that may be an Acer take, but I think that maybe the third one has gotten a bit of a bad rap. It's obviously not near as good as one or two.

But it's talked about like it's a terrible movie because it's not as good as one or two. It's still better than it's treated like. I've never seen it, actually. I've seen the first two. I never saw the third one. But maybe someday. Here's my intro question for you guys.

Which quarterback between now and the start of the season is most likely to jump up a tier or two? Deshaun Watson. For obvious reasons. Then let's not do that one. Well, most likely. I don't know how.

I could easily see the path how that could happen for him. But I don't know how. I think I the path how that could happen for him. But I don't know how. I think I would say either Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Exactly. Okay. Well, I asked on Twitter, but that was only like 10 minutes ago. So I'm waiting for all the replies to come in.

Jalen Hurts, I know, got a lot of them. I'm feeling there's going to be this rush of Joe Burrow enthusiasm. It's only going to take a few practice reports. Joe Burrow's tearing it up. And then people start taking him over Justin Herbert or Aaron Rodgers. He'll be right after Russell Wilson. I feel like he could jump into that seven spot, basically. Well, and there's another question.

It depends if, and I have it pretty clearly that Dak Prescott's in tier two, like solidly in tier two. But I think that some people might Dak Prescott's in Tier 2, like solidly in Tier 2, but I think that some people might think there's two tiers in front of him if you have Mahomes in his own tier. And if you had Dak in Tier 3, then I think with Hardenox, he would be the most likely. Okay. Well, here's what the people said.

Which quarterback will see the biggest jump in ADP? That was essentially the question. Sam Darnold? You could go that route. Somebody who's basically undrafted. Someone who's not being drafted to being a late pick. Oh, here's a good one. He's a good streamer, by the way. This is actually the winner. Whoever wins the Saints

job. Yeah, that's a good call. Yeah, that's a good one. I had a buddy tell me that all the talk in New Orleans is that it's going to be Jameis. That's what Jason one. I had a buddy tell me that all the talk in New Orleans is that's going to be Jameis. That's what Jason La Confora reported, or I don't know if I want to call it reported, but at least said in an article. Trevor Lawrence is getting a lot of love in this.

Who's going to have the biggest ADP jump among quarterbacks? Sure. He's another guy that, just like what you said with Burrow, if he goes out in the preseason and has a bunch of good drives, he's going to go from the quarterback you'll take with the late pick to the guy you'll draft to be your, not necessarily your starter week one, but a guy who you intend to start, and then maybe you take a starter after him. You'll take Lawrence with another quarterback, but you'll take Lawrence first.

Yeah, just how much room does he have to go? Because I already said he's 14th in ADP right now. And yes, he's... I think he can jump into 10 or 11. I could... Yeah, he could maybe get... It goes Stafford, Tannehill, Burrow, Trevor Lawrence. Right.

So like all the steam that you're seeing with Kyle Pitts, like that's the type of steam that you could see with Burrow, with Lawrence, and absolutely with Lance and Fields. I just... Your wife is in my DMs. Ridiculous. All right, everybody. That's what comes to his mind when his ankle's broken

and he's laying on the mat getting interviewed. It was just chaotic. Who won? Not McGregor, obviously. Okay, good. All right. We want to welcome a new podcast to the CBS Sports family just in time for the Tokyo Olympics.

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Download and follow Attacking Third wherever you listen to this podcast. Before we get into our QB tiers, we do have some news to get to. Saquon Barkley, on an interview this week, declined to give a timetable. Do you have any doubt that he'll be ready for week one, Saquon Barkley, on an interview this week, declined to give a timetable. Do you have any doubt that he'll be ready for week one, Saquon Barkley?

No. I have doubt about him jumping in with both feet to week one at 20 touches. I have doubt that he'll be ready to be in RB1 by week one. Okay. The Athletics, do we know how to pronounce? I know he's been on HQ. Vic Taffer, the beat writer for the Raiders. Sorry, sir. Says that John Gruden hears the criticism of the Henry Ruggs pick, so he is the one receiver we can lock in for a lot of targets. I like that. i like that theory yeah there's opportunity it's so hard to guess what the raiders are going to do at any moment because of the lack of quality in their decision making

like it's not as if you could use what makes sense as a guide um but listen he's he's plugged in to the raiders i think this is worth a little bit of a boost for Ruggs. What is he, right around wide receiver 50? Wide receiver 55 in ADP? There's no reason to not draft him late. Yeah, well, it's him, or you're probably going to get a choice between him and John Brown.

Wide receiver 60, yeah. 60, yeah. Who would you take at this point, Brown or Ruggs? I'd still take Ruggs over Brown. It's more fun. We'll see how he does in training camp. The one thing that I will say is that each year that Gruden's been there,

there's been a reclamation project that he succeeded with. It was Waller, and then last year it was Aguilar. I would consider Aguilar a successful reclamation project. Maybe he just goes to Ruggs this year and makes him the reclamation project. Yeah, the only thing, remember this time last year, you know, roughly this time last year, it

was, well, Josh Jacobs, he was mad that he didn't win rookie of the year. So this is going to be Jack Jacobs. Big sure he's going to catch 50 passes. Remember that crap? Yes. So that existed too. Uh, chiefs defensive end, Frank Clark was charged with felony weapons possession. He's obviously, I believe it's the second time this off season that he was charged with felony weapons possession. I believe it's the second time this offseason.

He was charged for the first incident, has still not been charged for another incident that happened after that. He's in trouble, I think. I think Heath mentioned this on one of our previous shows, but Nikhil Harry has requested a trade. And Cincinnati offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who is quickly becoming a quote machine as he just raves about everybody

and gives all this fantasy hope. He said that tight end CJ Uzama could have 50 catches. He said that's realistic for CJ Uzama. And 50 catches, I mean, it's not necessarily great. 14 tight ends had 50 catches, but I don't know what you have him projected for. He did have eight catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets in two games last year he had 45 and 42 cat yards in

those two games then he tore his achilles um yeah do you have him projected for 50 catches actually i i he was somebody that i felt like i due to the projections process had him too high um and so i'd kind of split things up between him and Drew Sample too much. So maybe this will cause me to boost him back into my top 30 tight ends. Right now I've got him projected for 30 and Sample for 34. But if they're saying he's clearly the guy, then yeah, I'll give him a little boost into that Gerald Everett range. But this is something that we probably should mention with Burrow as well, is that the schedule is unforgiving for Cincinnati early on. It's the Vikings in week one,

the bears in week two, the Steelers in week three. Then they get a reprieve with Jacksonville in week four. And then it goes back to being tough for the next three games. After that, you're Zama is going to be somebody who's going to be considered like a streaming tight end. Are you really okay with starting them against those defenses to begin the

year? I think you can find better, but people are in the Scott fish bowl right now. So tight end. Are you really okay with starting them against those defenses to begin the year? I think you can find better. But people are in the Scott Fish Bowl right now, so tight end premium league. Sure, and tight end premium leagues that are deep and go 22 rounds, of course, you can take Yuzama. Cornerback Stefan Gilmore of the Patriots may not be

fully recovered from a quad injury by the start of training camp. He also has some contract issues he'd like to figure out. Anybody miss a pick in the Scott Fish Bowl? No. Not surprised. If we were going to wager both of you, you're

such an embarrassment to our company. I can't believe that you would do this. I know. I actually am embarrassed by it. It was Saturday. The emails, they go to my work account instead of my personal account. I guess you're not in any of the group chats with your league or anything.

No, I'm not. Yeah. I'm not either, but that doesn't mean you're a piece of cake. I got some texts, too. It didn't work. Ben has a better excuse than I was. He was off the grid. Yeah, you are both.

This is the Tears podcast, and you should be in tears of shame. I was pretty embarrassed by it. I felt bad. But who did I select with that pick that I missed? Michael Pittman. I was still able to. Michael Pittman. I was still able to get Michael Pittman. So that was good.

I think he's my third wide receiver though, so that's not necessarily so good. Okay, we are going to be playing some poker and answering your questions tomorrow night, Tuesday night on youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday, courtesy of Faded Spade. Faded Spade helps nonprofits fundraise and their next high-profile virtual poker tournament is supporting Charity Bomb

on July 29th, and that is featuring rock stars from Alice in Chains, All-American Rejects, and more. Join us at youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today to watch our poker night and ask us questions throughout. It's really a lot of fun. It's just dudes chilling, playing poker, and talking football.

Subscribe to the channel, youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today, and we will see you Tuesday night at 7 p.m. Eastern. Speaking of Alice in Chains, I'm in the Alice in Chains division competing against the manager of Alice in Chains. I plan to take him down like a man

in the box. I can't think of a good Alice in Chains pun, Dave. I don't know. Maybe you could help. Okay. All right. Quarterback tears. Here we go. Does Patrick Mahomes have a tear to himself? That is the first question. I already know Dave's answer. Heath, I'll let you go first. Does Mahomes have

a tear all to himself? Yeah, he does for me. He has over the past three seasons or since he became the full-time starter for the Chiefs, been three and a half fantasy points per game better than any other quarterback in fantasy. Yeah, he wasn't that last year,

but I've talked about a lot. I think multiple years are more predictive than one. There's a chance that somebody will be better than him this year, but good luck guessing which one. He is the one guy you can count on for more than 25, near 30 points per game. Dave, does Patrick Mahomes have a tear to himself?

He does not for me. And it's because I don't view him amongst his peers the same way I view Kelsey this year or Rob Gronkowski in the past. I think that there's absolutely a chance that he does not finish as the QB1. I think I can make the case that Josh Allen can overtake him. But I do think that he will be the first quarterback taken. And I also think that when he is taken in one quarterback leagues, you're going to be waiting at least a round before you get to the next quarterback that's taken. So basically the drafters put him in a tier of his own, but you think that... No, I think it's closer than what the drafters would do. Yeah, the way I interpret that is you're probably not going to have a lot of Mahomes.

Probably not. Okay. That also comes down to quarterback drafting philosophy, which for me is, this year anyway, is I'm trying to get at least a fair value for a quarterback. I want to get one of the top eight to 12 quarterbacks, obviously. You got to get them if I'm in a 12-team league. But I want to get one at a value that's at least fair. And I'm really trying to target getting a fair to good value

at one of those first five. In 2020, Mahomes was the number two quarterback per game. And he was 2.2 fantasy points per game better than QB5, Russell Wilson. That's a pretty big gap. He was 0.7 fantasy points per game better than QB3 Josh

Allen, and then QB5 was Russell Wilson, and Mahomes was more than two points per game better. Can we clarify that he would have been QB1 in fantasy points per game if you throw out Dak Prescott? The way I have it is he was behind Dak in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, and he was behind

Rogers in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, and he was behind Rodgers in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. I have looked at multiple different places within our own site and multiple different sites and seen three different quarterbacks as QB1 for last year. They were all right around 30 fantasy points per game. Sometimes slightly over, sometimes slightly under. I've got Mahomes with 29.133333 fantasy

points per game, and Rodgers with 29.125, and I've got our boy Dak with 29.6. But Dak only played four and three quarters games. So I don't know if you want to conclude him or not. I wasn't really including him. Okay, so you've got something

that says that Rodgers was better on a point for you. I always use FFToday.com and on FFToday.com, Aaron Rodgers and I use CBS Sports Scoring on FFToday.com and in that case, Aaron Rodgers was 29.9 and Mahomes was 29.6. And the reason I use FFToday,

just in case anyone is curious, is because their data goes back like 20 years. And if you use CBS Sports, you can't look up at like 2011 or whatever and see where Peyton Manning, if you use your league on CBS Sports, doesn't have the retired players in it.

So that's why Dave keeps a running log and a spreadsheet every year. But whatever, it doesn't really matter. Let's just say Mahomes was basically tied for first. He was more than two points better than QB5 Russell Wilson. That is a big deal. And obviously in 2018, he was like seven points better per game. The gap is smaller though in four point per passing touchdown leagues. And we don't always talk about that, but your tiers are for six point per passing touchdown leagues, right? Yes.

And I wonder if he still has a tier to himself for you, Heath, in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. In four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues, he's not even my number one quarterback. It makes a massive difference in terms of projections. In a four-point-per-passing touchdown league, I would have at minimum three quarterbacks in the first tier, and quite quite possibly I just put all six, but Lamar Allen and my homes, um, I've got Lamar and Josh Allen both ahead of my homes and four points.

Okay. Next question. As we look at tears and then of course we'll go through them one by one. How much separation is there between the mobile guys and the pocket passers? And I think when I say the mobile guys, I guess I'm talking about the top six and then the pocket passers? And I think when I say the mobile guys, I guess I'm talking about the top six. And then the pocket passers would be specifically Rodgers, Brady, Stafford.

Well, Dave, wait a minute. When you say top six, who are the six? So I'm just going by the ADP, Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Dak, and then Wilson, who's consistently last, I think, in that group. Yeah, I actually have... I would put Lamar, Allen, Wilson, Dak, and Kyler

all in the next tier. I don't have Brady and Tannehill that far behind that tier. It is interesting though. I mean the, the extra 400 rushing yards or it could be 800 rushing yards for Kyler Murray. Could just Tom Brady had six rushing yards last year. And Aaron Rogers is maybe like 150,

170 kind of guy. He, he keeps decreasing his rushing. I mean, it is, it's interesting to think of it. So, I don't know. I guess talk about how you rank them

when you know the pocket passers have so much ground to make up, pun intended, sure, to those mobile guys. It makes sense, right? Because not only are you getting the stats of a quarterback, but a little bit of a running back on top of it.

Not necessarily anomalies anymore. It used to be anomaly and fantasy. Now there's enough of them out there where, as far as starting quarterbacks, you might be in the anomaly if you don't run for 300 plus yards or four plus touchdowns over the course of a season.

So it makes perfect sense that if you've got a quarterback that has the same or almost the same type of passing upside as not my homes, but in that next group of quarterbacks and you're also rushing a ton, do the math. You're going to have a lot of fantasy points. That's what we're playing this game for. Yeah, Heath, I mean, do you want to talk about, I guess, projections are one thing, but rankings are another because you have to factor in floor and ceiling and all that stuff. And, you know, people would just,

maybe people just don't want a guy who's just going to stand in the pocket and throw this day and age. Yeah, I just, I think we may get to the point to where those guys become a little bit underrated, if that's the case. Because I don't really, like, I think we may get to the point to where those guys become a little bit underrated if that's the case. I have a bigger difference between Lamar and Josh Allen and, say, Tom Brady than I do Wilson, Prescott, or Murray. But Prescott's probably going to run for 300, 350 yards. It's not quite the same thing as what we, and same, I mean, Dak Wilson might be a little more. And Kyler, we shouldn't expect to throw for anywhere close to the numbers that Tom Brady does this year. He hasn't been particularly good as a quarterback yet. So there's a balance there. Allen looks like he has the elite rushing and elite passing upside. lamar as a rusher is just a different animal from anyone so those two are a little bit different but the other three i'm just i don't have a hard time

seeing tom brady like he's probably gonna throw 10 more touchdown passes at least than kyler murray there's 600 rushing yards yeah so here here's the math based on last year, okay? 2020. I looked at all of the quarterbacks, the top 12-ish or so. Mahomes, Murray, Jackson, not in order. Mahomes, Murray, Jackson, Allen, Wilson, Rogers, Brady, Herbert, Tannehill, Watson, and I used Prescott in 2019. I used his 2019 season.

And I looked at just the fantasy points that they got from yards alone. Okay, just their yards, passing and rushing yards. Kyler Murray led the way with 241. Lamar Jackson had 246 in 2019 fantasy points just on yards. And that dropped to 211 in 2020. But Kyler Murray had 241 fantasy points on yards. Mahomes had 235. Watson, 237, was actually second. Allen, 224. But you go down to Rodgers and Brady, and Tannehill was at the bottom at 179

because he had very few passing yards, basically. But Rodgers and Brady, 187, 186 yards on just fantasy points on just their yards. So that means, let's say you gave Kyler Murray that yardage difference and five more rushing touchdowns. And he had eight more rushing touchdowns

than Brady and Rodgers last year. But I'm just going to give him five more rushing touchdowns. And he had eight more rushing touchdowns than Brady and Rodgers last year. But I'm just going to give him five more rushing touchdowns. If that was the case, for Brady and Rodgers to overtake Kyler Murray, they would need to throw 14 to 15 more touchdown passes in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. And last year, Brady threw 14 more

and Rodgers threw 22 more. Yes. Right. It happened. And there's also turnovers because Rodgers is going to turn the ball over. You can knock a few touchdowns off of that because Rodgers is going to be much better in turnovers. But then that jumped out at me, but it's possible. But then you go to four point per passing touchdown leagues,

they would have had to throw 21 or 22 more touchdown passes than Kyler Murray in four point per-per-passing touchdown leagues. If just the yards stay the same and you take away some rushing touchdowns from Kyler Murray, you needed more than 20 more touchdown passes for Brady and Rodgers to catch Kyler in four-point-per-passing touchdown leagues.

The six-point number is high but doable. The four-point number, I thought, to me, really jumped out. I don't know how you feel about that. Does this now change the... I think everybody knew this with Kyler, and that's why Kyler's ranked ahead of Rodgers and Brady. But this is a Jalen Hurts conversation, isn't it?

This is why people could consider taking hurts ahead of both Rogers and Brady. I know we're nervous about him as a passer and whether or not he can actually become more accurate in the same vein that we just saw Josh Allen become more accurate, but he's also willing to run with the football and he's got a chance to get a lot of yardage on the ground and score a bunch of touchdowns, too. But that information, I'm not even going to bother trying to quantify it with Rodgers and Brady because everybody's already drafting Murray ahead of him. But now I'm thinking about Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance if he gets the opportunity and Justin Fields if he gets the opportunity.

Those guys are going to go right up the draft board once there's positive news. And it wouldn't surprise me if all three of them, if they were guaranteed to start week one, would be, I don't know, about ahead of Brady, but right by him, head of Burrow for sure. I think it's more of a format discussion. Those numbers that you gave are really...

I've got Kyler QB6 and six points per pass touch passing touchdown and the projections but he's qb3 or four and four i've got jalen hertz qb10 and six but he's up to qb6 or seven in in four points so yeah it really depends and i think a majority of the non-cbs leagues are probably four um The majority of the CBS leagues are definitely six. So as Adam Azer always says, you need to make sure you read your rules. Yeah, look, this is a major, it's a

flawed exercise because like I said, Lamar Jackson lost about 30 fantasy points, 35 fantasy points in yards alone from 2019 to 2020. So you don't know what's going to happen with Kyler Murray, who already said he wants to use his legs more as a luxury that he felt like he was running too much last year.

Yeah, I've got Kyler at 10 fewer rushing yards per game this year. Oh, wow. That's a big difference. All right, so let's get into your tiers. Dave, what's tier one for you? We've got Patrick Mahomes at the top. Josh Allen is right after him. Kyler Murray right after him. Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott.

I've got five quarterbacks in the top tier. Not that I expect them all to go in the same two-round span, but I think all five of those quarterbacks have a chance to finish this QB1 fantasy. I think Mahomes is going to be the popular one. That's why he's first on the list. And I expect him to be drafted first. And then the four guys after him, probably in the neighborhood of 15 picks after Mahomes in a one quarterback league, you're going to see them go pretty close to each other. There'll be a run with those four quarterbacks. I would like to be the fantasy manager that drafts the last one of those four quarterbacks. So again, for Dave, it's Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott

in Tier 1. And Heath, how do you see it? In six-point passing touchdown leagues, it's just Mahomes. In four, it would be Lamar, Allen, and Mahomes. Okay, and then what's your second tier? In six, it would be most of the rest of the guys Dave said and Russell Wilson. So Lamar, Allen, Wilson, Prescott, and Murray.

Right, so Dave, how come Wilson... It's not just for you. I mean, you look at ADP, it's Mahomes, 26, Allen, 38, Kyler, Dak, Jackson at 44, 49, and 50, and then Wilson at 61. It felt like last year there was this sense that the whole Let Russ Cook movement

seemed like it was taking hold. And then you look at the first eight games of last season, and Russ was the top quarterback in fantasy. It was 34.4 fantasy points per game. In his first eight games, he had at least 24 fantasy points in each game. He was going crazy. And then the Seahawks reeled him in.

And now that same sentiment isn't quite there this offseason. I think they will try and be not necessarily more balanced. I think they're going to try and lean on Russ a little bit more. I think their offense is going to try and take the next step into being a little more quick-paced, a little more play action, stuff like that. But I think there's some trepidation that at any given moment, the reins will be pulled on Russell Wilson, and he'll be more like that quarterback that we saw in the second half of last year, which was under 20 fantasy points per game. He's not even my next quarterback after that first tier. Right, you have Herbert and

ADP has them basically with the same exact average draft position, 61st, 62nd overall. I would rather have Herbert. Why do you think Wilson is viewed either in the next tier or at the end of that tier? I think it's a little bit

over-weighting howuss's struggles in the second half of last year we're talking about a quarterback who's been a perennial top three top four fantasy quarterback last year outscored kyler murray by a half a fantasy point per game even though he struggled in the second half and speaking of struggling in the second half. And speaking of struggling in the second half, Russell Wilson was really better than Kyler Murray for like the final seven weeks of the season. You go from week 11 through 17, they were essentially the same guy. They both weren't very good in the second half. Yeah. People go with the injury. Right. People give Kyler the injury excuse. They give him the injury excuse. They blame

a lot of Russ's failures on the coaching staff, I think. Well, that just changed. The offensive coordinator just changed. So I can understand having Kyler Murray ahead of Russell Wilson or having Dak Prescott ahead of Russell Wilson. I don't think

they should be in separate tiers because we're basically just looking at a six or seven game stretch for wilson where things didn't go well but he's one of the best quarterbacks of his generation yeah and i think i think he's probably better let me just see i think he's better in six point for passing yeah i think so because even though he runs, he generally throws for more touchdowns than the running quarterbacks. Yeah, he's pretty good in both.

But just looking at where he's finished, each of the last three... No, basically every year, he finishes higher in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. He just throws so many touchdowns. He has the second or third highest touchdown rate of all time. Wow. Okay.

All right. So those are tiers one and two. And we're going to get into a little bit more with, with the, with the Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, whoever's in there hurts.

Rogers. We'll figure it out when we come right back on fantasy football today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters.

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Ensure your next project is safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Welcome back to our tiers discussion here. All right, so let's go to Dave's tiers.

His first tier was Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, and Prescott. We really only covered one tier for Dave. It's more like two tiers for Heath. Heath in his second tier has Russell Wilson. Dave also in his second tier has Russell Wilson, but Dave's second tier is more like Heath's third tier, if that makes sense. So Dave, give me your second tier after Mahomes, Allen, Kyler Murray murray jackson and prescott the first tier were all the quarterbacks i was

targeting after 30th overall the second tier these are quarterbacks i'm targeting in round seven and eight and then again one quarterback leagues everything changes when you talk about super flex everybody knows that herbert is first russ is after him. And then I've got Rodgers ahead of Hurts to round out the tier. Only four guys in this tier. And that's one that could flip. If Hurts looks good in training camp in the preseason, and really if Devontae Smith looks good, then I could see Hurts leapfrogging Aaron Rodgers in this tier. But those are the four quarterbacks that'll be there. This would also be, would this be the tier? I think if we knew that Deshaun, if Deshaun Watson was going to play 17 games, he would either top this tier or he would go to the bottom of the previous tier.

And this is Herbert Wilson, Rogers and Hertz. Heath, your, your next tier would be what? Well, the two guys at the top of my next tier, we haven't got to on Dave's tiers yet. But other than that, I mostly agree with the next tier. I've got Brady, Tannehill, Rogers, Hurts, and Herbert all in the next tier. Okay. So Brady and Tannehill are higher in Heath's tiers than in Dave's. So go ahead, Heath. And Herbert is lower, right? Yes, for sure. Herbert's lower.

I don't know if we were looking at an expectation of what they were going to do in terms of fantasy points. I think Dave and I are probably really close on Herbert. I just have Brady and Tannehill, I think, quite a bit higher. For Brady, we saw how incredible he was with Antonio Brown. He has arguably, maybe not arguably, the best surrounding cast around him. I don't think Bruce Arians is going to go to a run-heavy attack, so he's going to throw the ball 620-plus times.

And really, it's been a constant struggle for me all offseason in that how much do I pull back on what Mike Evans Chris Godwin Antonio Brown Rob Gronkowski OJ Howard have done for their careers on a per target basis to make sure that I don't rank Brady too high because honestly if you took their projected volume and you just gave each of those players their projected their career efficiency tom brady would be my number one quarterback i'd probably have tom brady projected to break the passing yards record and i'd probably have him projected for 42 touchdowns i don't want to do that for a 44 year old guy but i do think he has that like i think he has number one quarterback

upside and six points per passing touchdown leagues. And then Tannehill, there have only been two quarterbacks, I'm going to say this stat all summer long, there have only been two quarterbacks since he took over as the starter for the Titans that have scored more fantasy points than him. Since that time, he leads the league in yards per attempt and he's second in passer rating.

And he did all of that without Julio Jones. Yeah, it's pretty amazing. His passer rating is something like 111.3 since becoming the starting quarterback. His 16-game pace is interesting, though. It's just under 4,000 yards passing, and it's 275 rushing yards. So that's the thing.

When I looked at, just from last year, the fantasy points just on yards, Tannehill, the elite quarterbacks, was way at the thing. When I looked at, just from last year, the fantasy points just on yards, Tannehill, the elite quarterbacks, was way at the bottom. Well, not way, but he was the worst. His touchdown rate has just been ridiculous. He's on pace for, in the 16-game pace, based on his start since becoming the quarterback, starting quarterback, is 37 touchdowns passing and seven rushing.

And his rushing touchdowns, they're not like one-yard sneaks. You know, he's pretty athletic. I watched them all. I was like, how is this guy doing it? A lot of scrambles, some zone read near the goal line,

but it's still, Heath, it's just a scary, it's an incredible number how many touchdowns he's been scoring. So I'm sure that is a struggle for you doing your projections. Right. I don't, uh, I only haven't projected for two and a half rushing touchdowns, but I do think, and this is a little bit of me projecting onto the Titans. That may not be true,

but I'm assuming that going and trading for Julio Jones, they plan on throwing the ball a little bit more than they've thrown it the last year and a half. They have been so low in pass volume. And we generally say if you're that far off the league median, we expect a little bit of regression towards it, even if they remain one of the most run-heavy offenses. So I've projected a little more passing. I actually have them at 4,700 yards, but that's for 17 games, not for 16. Does that mean he rushes a little bit less? Well, yeah. I mean, his 16-game pace over the past two years

is 215 rushing yards, and I've got him at 184. So, yeah, I guess so. The thing, though, is that I wonder if you could make a case that he might have more rushing yards because as I was watching his highlights, a lot of scrambles. You know, it's not designed. Yeah.

But if you've got Julio Jones and AJ Brown running routes, how many times do you have to scramble? Yeah. One of the two white. They can manufacture that near the goal line. And I would bet they will for sure, because defenses are going to play them differently when they get inside the five. Yeah.

Tannehill isn't even going to be third on their list of guys to keep your eyes on when, when they're there, it's going to be Julio Brown and Henry and Ferkser. Oh yeah. Henry. Right. Right.

Not Ferkser. Yeah. Dave Brady and Tannehill. They're at the top of my third tier and they're just, they're right behind Rogers and Hertz. The case can absolutely be made for them to finish as top five fantasy quarterbacks. Could they finish as top three? I think you can make the case for almost everybody in my second tier

to finish top three. Hurts, I think, is going to be the toughest one to make that case for. But if he runs for over 1,000 yards and delivers over 3,500 yards and close to 30 total touchdowns, maybe he's got a shot to do it. I think that what Heath said kind of lays out the idea of why it's great to not reach for a quarterback. And if you're in a league where people take quarterbacks earlier than we do, where Mahomes will go in the first two rounds,

Allen will go five picks after that. Murray and Jackson will go five picks after that. You don't have to freak out. Just chill and get Tannehill or Brady at a good value. I really like the outlook for both of them. I don't know how many targets every single pass catcher in Tampa Bay is going to get, but I know who's going to throw them the football and it's going to be a lot of Tom Brady. I think there are paths for Tannehill. Derrick Henry has had over 400 touches each of the last two years. I know last year there was the sentiment that, oh, there's no way he's going to stay healthy this year.

He's a bust. Don't take him. Well, what happens if that happens this year and he goes down or he misses time? Tannehill's going to be throwing the ball a lot more because I don't think they're going to run the ball with the same type of, at the same rate with Jeremy McNichols and Darrington Evans. I think you'll see Tannehill throw more and his numbers could really pop in those games. That's a path.

That's an if that's, if it happens. And even if it doesn't happen, Tannehill is still going to be really good. So Brady and Tannehill, they're at the top of that third tier. And I don't, they're in the same tier, the three quarterbacks,

four quarterbacks actually after those two. Three, I'm sorry. Burrow, Stafford, and Deshaun Watson. But you can kind of place them in their own little bubble separate from Brady and Tannehill. I think Brady and Tannehill are excellent value targets. All right. So that means we've got 14 quarterbacks listed for Dave in his top three tiers,

which are Mahomes, Allen, Murray, Jackson, Prescott, Herbert, Wilson, Rogers, Hertz, Brady, Tannehill, Burrow, Stafford, Watson. Now that's very similar to the top 13 I referenced in ADP with the only difference being, I believe, Deshaun Watson. Right? Sure. Yeah, yeah.

Which makes sense. Right. So he's 26th in ADP since June 1st. So that gives us a definitive top 13, you know, if you don't include Watson. Heath, do you see it the same way with Stafford and Burrow and for you, Herbert? And who am I forgetting?

Hurts? Yeah. In the, I don't know. When you said Hurts, it says Teth. No, I've already got through 11 with my first three tiers. Okay, so who's your next tier?

Well, that's what I was kind of looking at here because I haven't actually wrote this piece yet. And I generally, when I do this, I just do projections tiers and I don't qualify it in any way. That's more difficult this year because of the Saints and the other things. So I would say if I had to put two, it'd probably be two quarterbacks in the next year.

And it'd be Joe Burrow and Saints QB. And not Justin Herbert. I already had Justin Herbert.bert oh i'm sorry i've lost track of your tears hertz and herbert and rogers and tannahill and brady were all in the tier above okay okay sorry about that that's okay and then all right so the hat so what number are we at then that would be 13 okay if you counted the saints qb as one so then who's who's in not stafford stafford okay all right so stafford i'm assuming is in your next year yeah and it's If you counted the Saints QB as one. So then who's in, not Stafford? Stafford. Okay.

All right. So Stafford, I'm assuming, is in your next year. Yeah, and it's basically all the rest of the quarterbacks. I mean, not quite, but seriously, I think you can make just as good a case for Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trevor Lawrence and Ben Roethlisberger to be in that next tier with

Matthew Stafford. They've all shown the ability at one time or another, except for Lawrence, obviously, to be that top five, top ten fantasy quarterback. And over a stretch, we really haven't seen it over a full season. I guess Roethlisberger was probably the most

recent of that group to give us a top five season over a full year. We saw it for nine games from Stafford a couple years ago. We saw it in stretches from Fitzpatrick in Tampa and short stretches in Miami. We've seen it from Cousins if he gets enough volume. Any of those guys I think could make that leap, and I'm fine with any of them in a 2QB league

as my second quarterback. So have we reached with the 13-ish quarterbacks? Those are the ones that you want as your week one starter. Have we reached the point now when you get to Lawrence and Cousins and Roethlisberger that you want them

as backups? Well, you could start Lawrence week one against Houston because that's a nice matchup. But by and large, yeah, those are guys. Those are the blue chip prospects. Those are the guys that you're drafting for two reasons. One, to be your backup fantasy quarterback in case something happens to your starter. And two, the guy that could blow up and finish as a top. This year's Justin Herbert, the out of nowhere or late round guy that could blow up and finish as a top. This year's Justin Herbert,

the out-of-nowhere or late-round guy that flourishes and becomes a huge fantasy stud. Okay, Dave, what do you think some, just without going through all of your tiers, I guess, what do you think some differences you might have with Heath are? Matt Ryan, I think, you have in your fourth tier tier after the Brady, Tannehill, Burroughs, Stafford, Watson tier. Lawrence, Trey Lance, Cousins, and Matt Ryan. I was interested to know

why you think Ryan and Cousins have that kind of upside. It's just based on track record. In the case of Ryan, I think it's the likelihood that he's going to end up just getting good fantasy production on volume. He'll compile his way to finishing as a top 15 quarterback. Not somebody that you're targeting. If you're looking for a backup quarterback, Matt Ryan does have potential to finish in the top 12. And unlike Trey Lance or Justin Fields or some of the other quarterbacks that we haven't really talked about that might have too much downside. I think Matt Ryan still has potential to be okay. And the same thing with Cousins. Although I do, I am starting to fall into the camp of Minnesota's defense is going to be a lot better.

They'll run the ball with the same type of, at the same type of rate as they did last year maybe they don't throw quite as much or stay as aggressive because they might not have to because that defense will be better who's got Top five potential. I think if Trey Lance starts week one and is put into a system that is built for him, I think he can get there. He's got good weapons around him that can make plays after the catch. He is a long striding quarterback who will run.

Wouldn't surprise me. Again, if he's playing 17 games, it wouldn't surprise me if he finished with seven plus rushing touchdowns and 800 plus rushing yards. And I think that he has the potential to just absolutely crush it. Heath, you know,

um, after the top 13 are off the board, obviously Lawrence Lance, these exciting guys. And then you've got Ryan and Cousins. I don't know that people are going to view them as having top five upside. But what about Carson Wentz?

Could he get back to that? Saints quarterbacks would be the easy answer if we knew who it was. Tua, could he get there? Daniel Jones, could he have a huge season? Baker Mayfield finished really strong. But Derek Carr is not going to have a top five season, right? There's almost no way.

I can't see it for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Who do you think has the big upside? Well, I mean, you didn't say Fields, and I would put Fields in that same Lance Lawrence discussion if he gets the opportunity early. And then I think there's still a chance. same Lance Lawrence discussion if he gets the opportunity early. And then I, like,

I think there's still a chance, like what if Ben Roethlisberger's elbow really was still a problem last year and it's not now. And they continue to throw the ball 640 times. Like they have each of the past two years when he's been the starting quarterback with that receiving core. Right. I think he definitely has top five upside. The offensive line, man.

It's a black cloud over everything Pittsburgh right now. Makes me nervous to say that Roethlisberger's even a candidate to finish top 12. You're out on Najee? No. Wait, what a rollercoaster ride.

You've had such a rollercoaster ride with Najee Harris. I know, I know. So I think Najee will get enough work to overcome. I don't think he'll have a particularly efficient season. Like he might average 4.0, and he still could get 300 touches. And if he's doing that and he's getting a decent

amount of catches and certainly working at the goal line i think he'll be okay but rothlisberger's i i think this offense i think it's going to look different before the snap and then after the snap i think it's going to look the same i think he's going to have to get rid of the ball really quick and it's going to add up targets and catches for everybody in the passing game but not a lot of intermediate and deep throws because I don't think that offensive line is going to be able to protect them. Okay. And then how about,

how about Tua? I think he's got a chance. This is a really interesting one. You can make the case, right? That you're going to use the Roethlisberger arm excuse. Well, Tua had the hip injury.

He was a rookie with no training camp. Wasn't healthy. Had really slow receivers who couldn't separate. They've added Will Fuller. They've added Jalen Waddell. Right, exactly. There are a lot of things to like about Tua, but he just didn't really show us much last year.

He has to be more accurate, especially on those intermediate throws. He's got to be able to hit his receivers in stride when they're between 10 and 20 yards downfield. He was so accurate in college. That's the Drew Brees comparison. He had... And you know what else he had in college?

It was a good offensive line that gave him time to throw. That offensive line has to be able to do that in Miami now for him. And if those two things happen, he's going to deliver in fantasy. He'll be better. My problem with him, we give these young quarterbacks a long time

to develop as passers, as we should. Sometimes it happens in year two. Sometimes it takes even longer. But he doesn't have the rushing upside that Hurts or Murray or Allen or any of those guys do. So he can't like we're I'm mostly just hoping that Joe Burrow this year can make an improvement from bad as a passer efficiency wise to average. If he could be average as a passer, that'd be that'd be good. I'm not sure two is going to score as many fantasy points with his leg as Burrow is. He'll run

a little bit, but you're right. He's in that same type of range of 300 yards rushing, would you say? I don't know what you have him projected for. I think he's right in the Tannehill range. Maybe a little better than Tannehill, maybe a little worse than Russ. But I don't think

they'll have him diving for touchdowns very often. So do you take Baker Mayfield or do you take Tua Tagovailoa? Do you take Matt Ryan or do you take Tua? I'm not drafting any of those three in a one quarterback league at all. So who are you drafting?

No backup quarterback? The guys in my first 20. Those guys are all outside of my top 20. Oh, all right. So who is it that makes their way into the top 20 at their expense? Most of these guys we've already talked about. I've got Stafford 15, Fitzpatrick, Cousins, Lawrence, Roethlisberger. I would take Daniel Jones over Tua and Matt Ryan.

I will take Tua over Roethlisberger, Fitzpatrick, Wentz, Jones, Cam. I agree with the Wentz part. Okay. I think he cracks my top 20. I've got him behind Justin Fields because I don't think he's got that same type of upside. But if we're learning that Andy Dalton is going to be the starter for at least the first few weeks of the season, then I think it makes sense to go with Tua over Fields. And same thing with Lance.

If Lance just isn't ready, he looks like a mess in the preseason, he would move down, Tua would move up, you would draft Tua first, unless you've got the roster space and the patience to wait for Trey Lance to get his turn. Okay, so I think Dave has to hop off. Yes.

All right, so Heath and I will finish up. With this question, Heath, when you talk about these... Thank you, Heath, when you talk about these... Thank you, Dave. When you talk about these tiers and talk about your rankings, what changes in a two-quarterback league, do you go safer with your second quarterback? Do you say, okay, look, Tua wouldn't be Tua for you.

It would be, I don't know, Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick's got more upside, but he's not... But Ben Roethlisberger's not losing his job. Daniel Jones is almost certainly not losing his job. They're going to ride with him until, until 2022. Anyway. You know, do you, do you change things? I found myself changing things in the Scott Fishbowl for this very reason, because it's super flex. Like I, I took Daniel Jones over, over the saints quarterbacks, because if the Saints quarterbacks start, they don't win the job.

I've got over a useless player. I wasn't going to be able to take two of them, and they were my third quarterback. What I would rather do is have one of the guys with upside and one of the guys with floor. I combined, for my second and third quarterback, I went with Derek Carr and Justin Fields in the guys with floor. I combined for my second and third quarterback. I went with Derek Carr and Justin Fields in the Scott Fishbowl. I actually took Carr before Fields though.

And I wouldn't do that in a one quarterback league. It doesn't really impact Tua or Fitzpatrick for me that much. Like some of the guys you brought up. I don't think Fitzpatrick losing his job. He always loses his job. That's kind his job that's kind of that's like what he does like he didn't have a job in tampa bay he took jamis's job but then he lost it back to jamis yeah that's true maybe maybe he's more likely to lose his job than roethlisberger is to get hurt again um but i yeah i don't think about it as much with those guys it's more for me the rookies and the

saints guys do matter but i don't mind taking one of the saints guys it just means that i've got to take a sam darnold or a jared goff as my third quarter rack so that i've certainly got a starter week one all right any anything else with qb tears i i think it's important when you're looking at these tiers and the backup range to know who you've got as your starter. If I've got Jalen Hurts or Joe Burrow, then I'm okay with one of these higher floor guys as a backup. Whereas if I've got a guy that I'm pretty confident,

I know what he is, then I'm shooting for fields or Lance, one of the upside guys as a backup. Yeah. And honestly, the way quarterbacks are drafted right now, when you can get Joe Burrow in like round nine, I don't know that.

I don't think it's so bad to take quarterbacks in rounds eight and nine. You know, Rogers and Burrow. I don't know if you would ever do that, but. I mean, fine with that. You've got seven picks that are non quarterbacks. You should have a great core to your team. Yeah, I don't. Yeah, I wouldn't use two of my top 10 picks on quarterbacks,

but I can understand if one of those guys hits and is this year's number one quarterback out of nowhere, then it was a great decision. Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much to Heath and to Dave. We've got running back tears coming out tomorrow. Check that out.

I'm Adam Azer. Have a good one, everybody.