Fantasy Football Today - Quarterback Breakouts! Trevor Lawrence? Caleb Williams? Drake Maye? (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Breakouts Bonanza begins with quarterbacks on fantasy football today, presented by FedMGM,

Starting point is 00:00:27 the sports book born in Vegas. Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richard. This is the first of four episodes that we are recording on Wednesday night. Obviously, you know what they're going to be, quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, then wide receivers. And I'm going to call him friend of the program at this point. Jake Seeley, first person I asked to be on, don't tell the other people. First person I asked to be on this, because this is like the third or fourth year

Starting point is 00:00:48 you've done the breakouts bonanza with us. So welcome. Are you excited to talk quarterbacks? Oh, so much so, as Dave said before we started this, it's always such a wonderful list. And I love, yes, the Flex League belt, or actually chain that you're representing there, by the way, in the best bowl league from last year. Also, similar to somebody that's in the league with you, as Nando would say, I would hope you would call me just a friend, period, and not a friend of the show. I think you're a friend. I consider you a friend. Absolutely.

Starting point is 00:01:15 Okay. Well, thank you. Yes. When I introduced him at my wedding as my boss, he got very upset. I mean, it's like, I'm actually a friend. Adam, how did you introduce Nando at your wedding? I didn't. You know what I said to Nando at my wedding? I didn't. You know what I said to Nando at my wedding? It's a true story. I went up to him and Jamie, and I said, please don't embarrass me today. That's what I said before my wedding. I was like, just give me one day where you don't embarrass me.

Starting point is 00:01:38 That's what it was. Not today, though. That was a different day. That was, yeah, only my wedding day. Fair game now. All right, guys. So we're going to have four episodes about 20 minutes each. Let's see how we do with that.

Starting point is 00:01:50 Our breakout quarterbacks, we've got two from Heath, three from Dave, three from Jake. And let's get right to it. Heath, the first one here is Justin Fields. And I think Dave might push back on it a little bit. So Justin Fields, Jamie, we did a draft on Tuesday night. That was the only quarterback Jamie took. Now, part of that was because if we had played out the league, there were a lot of good ones on the waiver wire.

Starting point is 00:02:10 It wasn't a very quarterback heavy draft. But yeah, give me your take on Justin Fields. He has improved as a passer basically every year he's been in the NFL. I know it was only six games last year, but he looked more comfortable. And statistically, he was better as a passer last year with the Steelers. Now he doesn't have Arthur Smith. He does have former college teammate Garrett Wilson. He's going to run for 800 yards.

Starting point is 00:02:31 He might run for eight touchdowns. There's no reason. People talk about Justin Fields' rushing ability as if it only gives him upside. It also protects the floor. He's going to score eight points per game, maybe nine, just with his rushing. If there was one touchdown pass, he's all of a sudden not had a bad week. Justin Fields' breakout season, draft him in round seven. in his last three seasons

Starting point is 00:02:57 Justin Fields has finished as QB I'm going to give you a six point per game which is his worst format QB6 per game QB 14 per game however you remove one of those games would have been up to QB8 because he left week six early

Starting point is 00:03:11 and QB 9 per game so that's top 10 at least two out of three years depending on how you want to Azer stat it now QB9 per game was last year in weeks one through six only so Dave do you want to push back on the Justin Fields breakout call.

Starting point is 00:03:26 I think he could have his best year ever, or he could just keep doing what he has been doing over the last three seasons, and that's get you to 20 fantasy points in about half of his games. And that's not a bad thing. Last year, there were 12 quarterbacks that did that. And does he have the upside to get you like into that 25 range? He did it for one year in Chicago. Other than that, no.

Starting point is 00:03:50 Watching him in the preseason, it wasn't very much, but it was a reminder that he was a reminder that He's very much a one read and throw type of quarterback. And we know that the Jets certainly want to run the football a lot. That's great for Justin Fields, but they also have three running backs that they want to get involved. I like him as a top 12 quarterback, but it's as my 12th quarterback. I'm penciling him in for around 20, 21 fantasy points for game. For however many games, he stays healthy and we know that he gets hurt pretty much every time that he's a starting quarterback. I would not take him in round seven.

Starting point is 00:04:20 I would also not take him in round eight. I think this is a quarterback that you kind of have to let somebody else in your league go after. And you just settle on somebody else if you're in the camp of waiting for a QB. Yeah, I don't know if he's going that early. He's going 108th overall in Fantasy Pro's ADP. So, all right, so that's maybe something that Dave would be comfortable with. That's like the 9-10 turn. Jake, where do you have Justin Fields in your rankings?

Starting point is 00:04:48 QB7. I'm with Heath on this one. and I will take him in the eighth and even consider him late seventh, mostly because I love the numbers that he threw out. And I'm going to say, you know what? Not only do I agree with the fact that he's a better passion than people credit for. Like, people act like he's a terrible thrower. We're not talking about Antina Richardson here.

Starting point is 00:05:06 But at the same time, on the flip side, I don't even care if he's a good thrower because freaking Daniel Jones was a top 10 quarterback running for 707. You know this, Adam. And he didn't even throw a touchdown per game that season. And here's another stat from last year. Justin Fields two 20 plus point games combined one passing touchdown in those two games. I don't need him to throw because he's going to run for 800 plus and 8 plus like he said. I will admit, Dave is right.

Starting point is 00:05:33 If you don't want to take the risk that he does get hurt because he does run, I understand it. But he's not losing the job. He's losing the job if he gets hurt. So I will take him as my QB7 because I think if he plays 15, 16 games just like he did that one season. You referenced Dave, there's a thousand yards rushing. on the on the floor for him okay let me jump in here hold on one said we got to move to our next guy we're never going to get through all the names but more importantly well i know everybody wants to talk about it's good stuff but more importantly very important note here jake is is uh more

Starting point is 00:06:03 of a four point per passing touchdown default whereas cbs leagues are more typically six point so yeah i mean this is a guy in just it wouldn't change much okay it's good to know but when you say he's seventh in your rankings those are four point per passing touchdown leagues right I'd still take him seventh and 6.2 for the upside. All right. Let's go to our next one. It's Jaden Daniels and Heath, you know, you, I'll make this one quick, but you think he was, he's going as QB3.

Starting point is 00:06:32 You think he could be easily QB1. The number one quarterback in my projections, and that's in the six point press touchdown leagues. Yes, if you look at his numbers last year, only 3,500 yards passing, only 25 passing touchdowns. But that includes two games where he played less than half the snaps and combined for 44 yards passing and zero touchdowns. I expect he takes a step forward as a passer.

Starting point is 00:06:54 I expect Debo Samuel as a short area target that can do more after the catch than he had last year helps his passing efficiency. The great thing about having him ranked at QB1 is you don't have ever draft him at QB1. Lamar Jackson goes at the end of round two. Josh Allen goes at the end of round two. You can just watch that and laugh and they don't take quarterbacks in round two. And then take Jaden Daniels in round three. He'll be better than both of them.

Starting point is 00:07:18 I did that in a draft today, except it was round four and not round three. And I feel like I laughed all the way to the bank. And I built a great team around them. So I love that. There's a great story on Fox Sports. Henry McKenna wrote it on how Debo Samuel could be used in the commander's offense. And it might be significantly different from how he was used in San Francisco. It's worth a read.

Starting point is 00:07:42 It kind of made me moderately excited about Debo Samuel. Basically, it's that he gets more downfield targets, not as much. running in that offense. Heath, do you still keep him at number one if Terry McLaurin misses the start of the season with his holdout? Listen, this could end up looking dumb, and I'll probably be more open to it two weeks from now than I am now. I don't really believe that Terry McLaurin's going to miss games. Guys don't really do that. It's happened occasionally. I might downgrade Daniels a little bit if McClorin's a week away from the season and not practicing, because he might get off to a

Starting point is 00:08:15 slow start. Okay. But I just don't believe that this is going to result in anything other than Terry McClearn being of a commander on a new deal. Okay. And Adam's going to kill me because I'm asking you another question so you can just say yes or no. Would you,

Starting point is 00:08:29 would you downgrade Daniels if McLaren shows up before week one, no training camp, no practice, but he's there. Is there a downgrade there? Are you just going to say, all right, maybe the first four weeks? Daniels only averages 25 fantasy points per game and then he takes off after that. No. I think if Terry McCoran's not there, he just has to run more, and that's great for Fantasy, too. All right. So, Justin Fields and Jay and Daniels for Heath. We'll get to Dave's in a moment. We'll finish with Jakes. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, please use the bonus code Fantasy, and you're going to get up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM.

Starting point is 00:09:04 Download the BetMGM app, sign up, and the promo code is Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. and if your bet loses, you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets. So just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up on bet MGM. Dave has Drake May, Trevor Lawrence, and J.J. McCarthy as his breakout candidates. Drake May, Trevor Lawrence, J.J. McCarthy. Is that how you rank it? Absolutely. Drake May, I toyed with the idea of moving May ahead of Justin Fields. And as much as I don't love Justin Fields, I can't do that. I cannot go that far.

Starting point is 00:09:44 I will still take Justin Fields out of Drake May. May last year, 11 games. This is week 6 through 17. Think about the receivers that he threw to. Think about the offense that he was in. Think about the structure of what that team was like. Think about the offensive line. He still averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game in 6 point.

Starting point is 00:10:01 I think he can improve on that. He's got Stefan Diggs. He's got a better, well, at least it's a younger offensive line. It should be a better offensive line. He's got Josh McDaniels calling plays. I think it helps him tremendously to have Trevionn Henderson catching passes out of the backfield. I think that can make a world of difference. And after watching him practice, watching him in the preseason game, I'm pretty confident that he's improved as a thrower.

Starting point is 00:10:25 And we've always known that he has a strong arm. And this is going to be an offense that revolves around him. He will certainly run for his fair share of touchdowns. I don't think he's going to run like Justin Fields. And really, that's the big difference. But he can throw better than Justin Fields. And so if you don't like Justin Fields, you'll gravitate toward Drake May or if you just kind of want to wait for a quarterback and you want one with some rushing upside, fields can be first on your list. Maybe May should be next when we're talking about a pick in this round eight, nine range that we're talking about.

Starting point is 00:10:54 So Heath has not jumped on board the Drake May bandwagon. He still has May 18th, whereas Jamie has him 12th and Dave has him 13th. Again, that's six point per passing touchdown leagues. Jake Seeley, where do you have Drake May? at 14th. I'm okay with the rushing upside. He has looked somewhat better in the preseason. I don't think he's to where we want him to be. I will say that, at least in my opinion. And I even said this on a podcast earlier today. Let's not overrate his receiving core. Like, Diggs coming off an injury. Kyle Williams is not going to be a factory. He's way down the depth chart unless we get some

Starting point is 00:11:27 shocking news the last two weeks. But I say all to say, I cannot agree more with the Treveeon-Henderson thing. I've been talking about Trevor on Henderson this entire off-season. But all that being, said, let's bring up Daniel Jones again. He's better passer than Daniel Jones. And again, I don't need him to throw for 4,000 yards. I don't think he's going to throw for 4,000 yards because Dave said he's not running like Justin Fields, but he might run like Josh Allen. And if that's the case, then who the heck cares if he's just a mediocre passer?

Starting point is 00:11:54 If he runs like Josh Allen, then he's running certainly not for as many yards as Justin Fields, but probably more touchdowns. Well, he did towards the end of the season. Yeah, well, he's also got to cut down the picks because he was on pace for 19. interceptions in his starts, whereas you keep mentioning Daniel Jones having like a borderline time 12 years. He threw five picks that year. So that's the next step.

Starting point is 00:12:14 And as good as he may have looked in the preseason, he did have a ridiculous fumble. So he's got to clean that up. But he's got so much talent. All right. The other two breakout calls. Jake, would it help you if I told you that in the joint practice against the commanders, he had two off target throws out of maybe 25 throws? Like, he's getting deep bucket throws, no problem.

Starting point is 00:12:35 Stefan Diggs looks good This is a better offense There's no other way to say it You're not wrong And that's why I say he looks better But it wouldn't make me feel better Because I still don't think he's there To the degree of some of the throws he made in the game

Starting point is 00:12:48 That's my concern You still look like he's still making some mistakes Yeah and that'll continue But he's certainly He's take I believe he's taken a step forward Based on what I say Yes Jake any or Heath

Starting point is 00:13:01 Any pushback on Trevor Lawrence And J.J. McCarthy as breakout calls I like a Heathco. I mean, at Trevor Lawrence, I'd just like to congratulate him on breaking the record for the most consecutive breakout season as a quarterback

Starting point is 00:13:15 without fulfilling an actual breakout. Like, I love Travis Hunter. Hopefully Travis Hunter elevates Trevor Lawrence. J.J. McCarthy's never played in the NFL, so I feel confident that Dave's right and he'll have his best season ever. Don't do that.

Starting point is 00:13:29 You're a rookie. You're a rookies-can-be-breakouts kind of guy. I'm just trying to be quick, man. All right, all right. Well, do you guys draft Lawrence and or McCarthy with the thought of, hey, these guys might win me in my league? No. Lawrence, I don't think will win your league, but I think he can break out.

Starting point is 00:13:47 I mean, if it doesn't happen at this point, he's one of the biggest bust in NFL history. Somebody will call him a breakout next year. Yeah. The McCarthy happens to do, it's the quarterback whisperer and all the talent around him. And I'm not, my only concern for McCarthy is not that he's not good on. a per dropback basis. I'm just concerned that the Vikings might be more balanced this year and not ask him to throw like Sam Darnold just did. And if that's the case, is he going to run for four or 500 yards? That's another question that we have to throw out there. So I could see it,

Starting point is 00:14:20 but I could also see J.J. McCarthy being somebody that we move on from three weeks into the season just because it's a more conservative approach than we expected. The best part about both of these quarterbacks is that you can get them significantly late in drafts. You might not even have to draft them. They might be on the waiver wire to begin the season. I hear you, Jake, on what the Vikings might try to do, what they want to do. I don't know if Kevin O'Connell can actually contain himself because he's a former quarterback. He's done such a good job scheming up his offense with Kirk Cousins and Sam Donald. I think J.J. McCarthy is a solid thrower right now.

Starting point is 00:14:55 He could get better. I don't think he's running for 500 yards either. But I do think he'll give you a little something on the ground. So we'll Trevor. And both of them are candidates to potentially get 4,000. yards the real appeal with both of them is who they're throwing to and brian thomas junior is a favorite of a lot of people Travis hunter is going to be taken with the top 60 pick we already know how good Justin Jefferson is how good jordan addison is how good t j hawkinson

Starting point is 00:15:19 is the guys connected to these past catchers should be able to put up numbers otherwise we've got some real problems with some of our favorite fantasy let me let me slide in a quick question adam and i'm going to say just because this is who mccarthy feels like as a pastor today he He is going to get better, but just as of today, where would you rank Tyler Heineke in the Vikings' offense? Lower. I just feel McCarthy is Heineke today. Again, I do believe he's better and will be better. I just feel what we're watching and what we've seen and already heard some of the concerns about his decision making.

Starting point is 00:15:55 I just feel like Heineke is who McCarthy is today. All right. The good point for McCarthy would be this. The last three quarterbacks that have played for the Vikings. cousins twice, Sam Darnold last year. They have finished top eight per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues and top 12 per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues, probably to the surprise of everyone each year.

Starting point is 00:16:18 All right, so we're going to take a break and get to Jake's breakouts when we come back. And I'm also going to tell you something about the best quarterback values over the last five years. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. All right, a few things here real quick. So tomorrow, it's Wednesday right now. You might be listening on Thursday. We have a live stream beginning sometime around 4.15 or 4.30 p.m. Eastern. This is the Adam and Dan tennis match. This is also going to be a fantasy football chat. Okay. Jamie and Heath are going to be

Starting point is 00:16:46 taking your questions, talking fantasy football. We're going to have some guests come on. It should be pretty fun. And quite honestly, I have been watching tape of last year's tennis match. And I think I am ready. I am ready to make a big jump here. I am excited for the match. Like I said yesterday. I hate Dan Schneier and I'm going to kill him. So I'm fired up. I'm ready to offer Dan $500 to St. Jude if he sweeps you. Oh, come on. Don't say that. 60, 60. I will say by the picture, you definitely look more like the tennis player. That's a ridiculous picture. But anyway, watch it. We're going to live stream. It's going to be fun. And we're going to talk fantasy. And we're going to raise money for St. Jude. The other thing is the Experts League, the Draftathon Experts

Starting point is 00:17:30 league. This is one of the coolest items we have at tinyurl.com slash 2025 FFT. If you go there and click View Auction House, you can see the draftathon league. And let me just see who's in that one, or how much that's going for right now, because Jake is in that league. $760 is the current bid. You've got about a day left. If you're listening tomorrow, you have less than 24 hours, you're listening on Thursday, less than 24 hours to make this happen. You're in a league with some of the best analysts in the industry, plus Jake. Thank you. I was waiting for it.

Starting point is 00:18:04 All right, all right. So let's get back to the show here. We've heard Justin Fields and Jaden Daniels from Heath, Drake May, Trevor Lawrence, J.J. McCarthy. Before we get to Jakes, I just want to tell you some of the best quarterback values over the last five seasons. 2020, Aaron Rogers, QB1. He was drafted as QB11. Josh Allen, that was his breakout year, QB, 2 drafted as QB10. Ryan Tannahill.

Starting point is 00:18:27 was a great value. Tom Brady the next year. Tom Brady was QB9. He finished his QB2. I think they won the Super Bowl that year. Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford. They were both top five. The year after that, Jalen Hertz, Gino Smith was undrafted. He finished his QB5. Justin Fields, QB6 per game. Dak Prescott in 2023. Jordan Love in 2020. Brock Purdy, all of them, top six. Kirk Cousins was QB7 per game. Joe Burrow in 2024 finishes QB2. Baker Mayfield, QB3. Jaden Daniels was a great value. So was Jared Gough. So was Bo Nix.

Starting point is 00:18:59 The point I would make is you heard. Sam Darnold. How did I forget him? Sam Darnel, great value. Everybody forget Sam. You heard a lot of names of guys that are mobile, but they're more pocket passers. Don't overlook those players. And all the stats I gave her six point per passing touchdown leagues, but they were good in 4.2.

Starting point is 00:19:18 Don't overlook the seemingly more boring players. I know we're talking about breakouts, so you can't have Jared Gough on this show or anything. I thought you were talking about your tennis game again. So, but I'm just saying you don't have to be this super, you know, running quarterback. You can be a 300-yard quarter. Be Jared Goff and not even come close to that. But just don't overlook the really good passers because almost all of those guys, Justin Fields is the only example of a guy who has drafted super late at quarterback

Starting point is 00:19:45 and finished really well and didn't throw at least 29 touchdown passes. All right, with that said, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Cam Ward. Now, Caleb on this list is interesting, by the way, of three minutes until our next show is supposed to start. Caleb on this list is interesting, Jay, because nobody's so high on him right now. You still have him and Bryce Young and Cam Ward. Go ahead. Yeah, and I do want to touch on the previous thing real quickly. That's why if we were also talking bouncebacks, Dak Prescott, C.J. Stroud are on a lot of my teams. If I'm waiting until the end game, I'm double dipping, and a lot of the names we're bringing up today and including those guys who can go back to 4,000 yards and potentially 30 touchdowns.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Caleb Williams, I think, is just interesting for everything we've been talking about that Ben Johnson is going to come over and fix this offense and fix Caleb Williams and the weapons that they have. Dunezay's rookie season was thrown out the window. Partly before, look, it was on the home fall at times. There was concentration issues. There was route running issues. But we all saw the talent that Adunze was. And I think as their number two, Luton's been slow to come along because of the injury. But one of the better number three is when he's back out on the field.

Starting point is 00:20:45 And what I like about all three of the wide receivers, that being more burden and Adunze is they can all. play of the slot and they can all play outside to varying degrees of effectiveness. But I think Ben Johnson can move them all around and see what works and see what works best in this offense. But it does come back to Caleb Williams. And there's been mixed review so far. So I'll say it's far from a lock. But if somebody's going to get him right, I think Ben Johnson can do it. Maybe it takes a few weeks into the season and we're patient. But I love some Caleb Williams for the upside of I would take him before Drake May. And I know that's not a very common thought. Yeah. Okay. By the way, you know what your list has in common? These are the last three number one picks in the NFL draft.

Starting point is 00:21:26 Bryce Young, Caleb Williams, and Cam Ward. Now, do you think Bryce Young and Cam Ward can be top 12 quarterbacks this year? I think they can. I think the thing with Bryce Young is the end of season, Bryce Young, is that who we see this year? And it's not just the thrower. It's the fact that he started calling his own number, especially at the goal line. I don't think he's going to run for six, seven hundred yards. But if, he turns into even early career DAC with a few more, like the six touchdowns on the ground on 200 yards. Is that going to be part of his game going forward in addition to the better passing? Then I think Bryce Young will be a top 12. That being said, he needs that because I don't think Bryce Young is going to be throwing for 4,400 yards. I don't think he's going to have a huge a dot at the top of the league. I don't think that's his game and what they're going to do. Though I think McBillan is obviously going to help. Cam Ward I threw with an asterisk because I'm on the, I don't

Starting point is 00:22:18 think rookies break out. I think they have great debuts. But I do think if you are looking for a gamble on Cam Ward, I think he will run more than some people think three, four hundred yards potentially on the ground. But everybody's excited about what this offense is going to do. And yeah, Cam Ward. And I'm going to throw Calvin Ridley in this conversation. It's like, let's give him more respect of what he's going to do this year. But if Cam Ward runs three, 400 on the ground and comes out and looks anything, you talk about A dot, passes like he did that final season in college at Miami. He's a gunslinger. We already saw how many 50 yard completions is this guy already put up just in the preseason game alone.

Starting point is 00:22:50 I think Cam Ward wouldn't shock me to be top 15, maybe not a QB1, but I do think it's in his wheelhouse. I'm going to end with this question for all of you guys. We've got these young, exciting players, Drake May, Caleb Williams, throw Trevor Lawrence in there that are not as proven as, look at this list that we're showing. Jordan Love, Jared Gough, and Brock Purdy are not on this list. They're probably just ahead of that. But Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Jared Gough, Justin Herbert.

Starting point is 00:23:18 How do you, Heath, make the decision I'm going with the young unproven guy that I think has more upside or the maybe not as sexy on draft day, but still very good guy, the veteran quarterback that we know more about? I don't think you make that decision at all. I think if you're taking one of the young unproven guys and I would like to, then you just take both. Take one of each. It's not, like I don't want to take one of the older guys that are kind of boring without one of the young exciting guys. Just take both. And if I've drafted one of the top five quarterbacks, I'm not real interested in drafting another quarterback. Yep.

Starting point is 00:23:51 It's true. I think too many people make that mistake. You're never starting them anyway. So why did you waste that bench spot that you could have spent on another running back or wide receiver? Oh, you're lucky we're out of time because I could say five minutes on that subject. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I could have. I do it a lot.

Starting point is 00:24:06 It wouldn't help us anybody. No. All right. Well, it'd be good for at least for me to get it off my chest. Thank you very much to Jake Sealy at All In Kid. Follow his work at The Athletic and great stuff. All right, we got J.J. Zachariasen, J.J. Zachariasin joining us to do running back breakout to check that out.

Starting point is 00:24:24 We'll be there. I don't even know what I'm saying. Goodbye, everyone. See you soon.

Fantasy Football Today - Quarterback Breakouts! Trevor Lawrence? Caleb Williams? Drake Maye? (08/14 Fantasy Football Podcast)

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