Fantasy Football Today - Rankings! 13-24 in PPR (06/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 22, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  We've got running backs, wide receivers and quarterbacks to discuss on today's episode which looks at 13-24 in our consensus PPR rankings. Three QBs made the cut and that's where we'll start. Also, two of the best RBs from 2022 find themselves outside the Top 12 (5:25). Is that justified? ... A quick look at the news and notes (12:30) and then it's back to the rankings beginning with a Josh Jacobs vs. Tony Pollard debate (17:15). The touches should definitely favor Jacobs, so why are people higher on Pollard? Then we look at three WRs being drafted right after those RBs (25:30): Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown ... How high should Nick Chubb go in drafts (30:30)? Could he have his best season yet? After Chubb, it's (37:05) Garrett Wilson, Derrick Henry and Jaylen Waddle followed by the QBs (44:00). Which QB is the safest? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Yesterday, we looked at the top 12 in PPR in the consensus rankings. That would be the combination of Heath, Dave, and Jamie's rankings. Today, we're looking at 13 through 24,

so your round two picks if you're just looking at our rankings on cbssports.com. And did Mark Andrews make the cut? How many quarterbacks are in the mix? We're going to find out these things right now. I'm Adam Azer. I got Heath Cummings and Chris Towers here, and I'm going to start out with quick questions for you. No pleasantries today. Maybe at some point pleasantries, but not right now.

First question, Heath. We have three quarterbacks in our top 24. They are the last three in the consensus top 24. Mahomes at 22. Josh Allen at 23. Jalen Hurts at 24. That's ahead of Ramondre Stevenson, T. Higgins, Devontae Smith, Mark Andrews. Do you like that?

Does that make sense? Should they be second-round picks? They should be second-round picks. I think I'm the reason that we have three in the top 24. I have Mahomes at 19, Allen at 20, and Hurts at 21. So I'm probably the one pushing them up into round two. And I think it's what we're going to find out this year, because I don't really have questions about those three.

I think those three are going to be somewhere between 25 and 30 fantasy points per game. And that's really, really valuable. But how valuable it is, is going to be determined by what we get from Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields. I do think there's a case to be made that we're going to do this thing that the last two years tells us we should do in elevating the quarterbacks. And then this is going to be another year like, what was it, Chris, 2020, when we had like nine quarterbacks that averaged 25 fantasy points per game.

And that 25 to 30 point production wasn't as valuable. But right now, looking at the last three years, we've got a couple of guys who look almost certain to do it. And quarterback has trended the poor bad the last two years. So it makes a lot of sense. And I think there's there are reasons to think that 2020 was sort of a turning point in a lot of the ways that the NFL plays defense like we've talked a lot of the last couple of years about like every team is playing too high shells and

and you know I think one of the things that I think is really interesting is it sort of seems like teams aren't defenses are playing their game now right like a lot of the time defenses aren't like game planning for the specific offense they're just we're gonna play our two high shell you figure out a way to beat that defense and so what you've seen the last couple years is like the bears and falcons reacting to that by saying okay we're just gonna run the ball down your throat and see if you can stop us and and so it's created a little more diversity in the way NFL offenses operate. And I think that could continue to perpetuate this haves and have nots thing at

quarterback. What we saw last year, number three quarterback and the number six quarterback were separated by 6.2 points per game. That is a massive, massive mark. It was basically the big three and Joe Burrow is at 26.3 points per game. The other three were at 28 or better. And then Lamar Jackson was the only guy above 22 points per game, and he missed, what, the last five or six games of the season. So it was a massive, massive edge to have one of those three quarterbacks, and I think those three guys are worth a second round pick.

I think the bigger question at the position is whether what happened in a recent mock draft where we had seven quarterbacks go in the first 45 picks, whether I don't think we're overrating Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. I think the question is whether there's inflation for that next year. I think those three guys are absolutely worth second-round picks. I've been banging that drum for a couple years. I think the question is whether

we're in turn overrating Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields and the rest of those guys who are getting their prices pushed up. Last year, we also saw Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady,

Matthew Stafford, just have terrible fantasy seasons and Justin Herbert. And yeah, Justin Herbert. But I mean, but, but those guys are older and maybe just for Brady. I think Brady,

especially his best days are behind him, but the other guys, you know, they may have just aged out in the position. And we also saw Deshaun Watson come back and be bad. But if he gets back to what he is, I think quarterback could be deeper this year. That doesn't mean those guys aren't worth a second-round pick. Chris, you mentioned all the players who were

averaging, the quarterbacks who averaged 22 points per game. You mentioned just Lamar Jackson after those big four. You forgot about Davis Webb. Davis Webb did that. Oh, my bad. Sorry. Apologize to the webheads out there. I know that's a big constituency and I don't want to drive

our Apple review ratings down because of that. Second question here. Chris, I'll give this one to you first. Is it weird as we look at our consensus rankings, two players we're going to talk about today between picks 13 and 24. Is it weird that RB3 and RB4

from last year are second round picks according to our consensus rankings? This year, that would be Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. They were to RBs 3 and 4 both per game and full season. Derrick Henry's been a top-four running back in every format per game four straight seasons. And he and Josh Jacobs, Chris, are not in the top 12 of our consensus rankings is that weird i'm personally a little uncomfortable by the fact that i seem to be higher on derrick henry than the consensus for the first time ever his consensus 80 or rank right now is 20th and i've been the guy arguing he's not worth the first round pick the last couple of years or the top five pick, I guess.

And I haven't 15th. So, yeah, I think both Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry are a little underrated by this. I think I understand the arguments against them. But, like, I don't know. Henry made right down. They're after you, Chris. What's that?

They're after you. Yeah, yeah. The Derrick Henry police. They're after you, Chris. What's that? They're after you. The Derrick Henry police. I guess the argument is we expect both of these offenses to be worse than they were last year, right? No. And I think that makes sense for Vegas. The Titans... The Titans won't be worse.

I don't think they'd be worse. Keith, what's the argument here? Why are these guys second? I know you have Jacobs in your first round, I think seventh overall. So what's the argument here? Why are these guys second? I know you have Jacobs in your first round, I think seventh overall. So what's the argument? Why are in the consensus rankings, in ADP, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry being so dissed?

I do think that what Chris said about the Vegas offense being worse this year and that being the expectation does seem to be the expectation for some people. And I would agree with it if Jimmy Garoppolo is unavailable and the raiders don't add another quarterback um but i don't think that there's a big difference i think i think the derrick henry one makes perfect sense he's 29 years old we start getting

worried about running backs at 27 or 28 he's had 4 million carries um he could absolutely make us look dumb again and that would not be that surprising but it's time for him to not be as good um the the josh jacob is one just makes absolutely no sense to me at all he's my number one running back in non-ppr um it's not like he had like 18 touchdowns last season where like, yeah, it's not like you could look at it and say, well, that offense is going to be so much more like he had 12 touchdowns on

nearly 400 touches. There's not touchdown regression coming. If he gets a similar role, I don't see any reason he can't score double digit touchdowns again. He had none in the passing game on 53 catches. I don't think Jimmyimmy garoppolo is especially less likely to throw the ball to him than i would say more likely derrick car and do we really like do we really think zamir white's gonna push the guy who led all running

backs and the percentage of their team's touches like He probably won't have 80% of their team RB touches like he did last year, but it's probably not going to go down significantly. He's the only workhorse running back other than Jonathan Taylor, who's under 27. I guess Saquon you could put on there, but somebody had a really good point, and of course I retweeted it because I'm the Josh Jacobs guy, but in Dynasty, Saquon Barkley is a top five running back in consensus rankings. Josh Jacobs is 10th.

Jacobs is a year younger than Barkley and has been better three years in a row. Yeah, that one I don't really. I do have Barkley one spot ahead of Jacobs, but I don't think there's a gap there. I don't feel any confidence at all that the Giants offense is going to be better than the Raiders offense this year. If Garoppolo is not healthy, then I do think they will

be. I think if Garoppolo is not healthy, then Carson Wentz will start. He's terrible. No, no. Carson Wentz is not the answer. We're not going to derail the podcast nine minutes in with a Daniel Jones debate. Yeah, you're right. This is all just you taking a shot at Daniel the answer. We're not going to derail the podcast and I'm going to say I'm with a Daniel Jones debate. Yeah, you're right. This is all just you taking a shot at Daniel Jones,

which I'm not going to get into. No, it's not at all. I just think that they're both mediocre offenses. Either way, I think one factor that's underrated here is the offense Josh Jacobs plays in, the Josh McDaniels offense. For the entire time he was in New England, basically, every single year year that New England

Patriots team was generating top five RB PPR point totals for all now that was usually spread between three running backs and so you very rarely had a top 12 guy but we saw last season Josh Jacobs is perfectly capable of being a three down back and being effective at it and there's no competition for touches there i i just i think he's a very very safe round one pick with you know top five upside okay the argument against him is that he had never finished higher than 10th per game in any format before last season so i think people are are concerned that it was a huge outlier year and they might be concerned that he's not going to play for the raiders and that he might not play at all or something like that you can't do that

with him and not barkley i accept except that the reports are are more at least in terms of him not playing for the raiders you know they could you saw this speculation they could rescind his franchise tag, which would be fine for him. Then he'd just be free. I did not see that. I heard it from you, but I did not see that. No, I saw it. I wasn't making it up. I believe you.

I'm just saying I didn't see that. And yeah, and signed Dalvin Cook or whatever. But, you know, he seems more likely, I don't think either of them are, I'm not approaching it. We just did a draft last week. I don't think any of us approached it like they're not going to be on the Giants and Raiders, respectively. But it seems maybe people are more panicked about Jacobs than they are Barkley from that perspective.

Let's do some news and notes. Before we do that, our eBay store for Draftathon, which you know the Draftathon if you're a loyal listener, which most of you are. You know what it is. It's our four-hour – well, actually, no. It's like a six-hour live show at the end of August. But really, you should think of Draftathon as the next few months of charity, raising money for St. Jude

with a whole bunch of different awesome things. You've got pre-draft calls with our experts. You've got spots in leagues. You know we made over $21,000 with the spot in the Dynasty Startup League. So that was amazing. But it's all CBS personalities as well. You'll see. Go to the store. So we've got this URL. Maybe we can put it in the chat, Thomas. tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. tinyurl.com slash FFT donate. I think we'll have a different link to that at some point

but we do have sort of an ebay storefront now where you can see all of the things that are up for auction it all goes to saint jude and it's june 22nd just imagine what we're going to be auctioning off uh in june july and august and i can't wait to raise so much money this year. And, yeah, thank you for being a part of it in advance. TinyURL.com slash FFTdonate. That's the first way to get there right now. Okay, news and notes. The person that Tyreek Hill slapped is pressing charges.

Keep an eye on this story. Raiders defensive end Max Crosby said he wouldn't be surprised if Tom Brady shows up in a Raiders jersey. And he was saying that if things don't go as planned with Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, you've got these health issues with Garoppolo. So if he's injured, maybe, according to Max Crosby's on the team, maybe Tom Brady shows up. Adam Schefter thinks that Sam Darnold has the edge over Trey Lance going into 49ers camp.

Heath, does that just mean that we should not have hope for Trey Lance in fantasy? No, because if Trey Lance ever does get a chance, he's probably going to be valuable for fantasy, even if he's not good at passing. But I think it does mean that I can declare victory

in the Jalen Hurts versus Trey Lance battle of 2020. That's it. No. You got it? You want to play it? What were you hoping? I was just going to play this.

I just want to play that. No, it's like it's just one of those things where we didn't know. I'm not saying he's bad. We didn't know anything about him when the 49ers drafted him. And through a variety of weird things, we still don't know anything about him. And the only team that has any reason to think they know something about him is the 49ers. And it sounds like they prefer Mr. Irrelevant and Sam Darnold. Yeah. If I could do a cross-sport analogy, one thing that we've noticed in baseball, and this has been studied, is when a top prospect gets traded, they perform worse than the top prospects who are ranked in their same range. And it makes sense, right? The team that knows them best is the team that's seen them the most. And 49ers are the only people who have seen Trey Lance do anything on a football field over the last three seasons and they seem to not like him very much and we don't know why it's it's kind

of been kept under wraps we've gotten a few reports about inaccuracy in camp but for the most part we're in the we're in the blind but our our assumption should be that Trey Lance is pretty terrible at this point, unfortunately. And if I do a cross-positional reference, I have great fear that a year from now we are talking about Jamison Williams in the same way. Oh, that would be bad. Just because he's not playing. You have to play.

Yeah, you have to play. Lance, of course, he had the broken finger. Really affected him badly. And the broken ankle. Ankle, yeah. Yeah, but the broken finger, really affected him badly. Then the broken ankle or leg. Ankle, yeah. Yeah, but the finger was a huge deal, and he's finally getting back to throwing the ball the way he used to. That's the other thing, is we are entirely dependent throughout these,

is it three years now, two and a half years of Trey Lance on things that get leaked out by the 49ers or Trey Lance's agent we've not seen anything we don't know how good he is at throwing a ball right now at all we didn't know when he came into the NFL nobody saw him playing college yep all right you so that that's good I would really like to see Sam Darnold as the quarterback for the 49ers. I feel like it would be a really fun experiment. I think it would be by far the best season of his career. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

Andy Reid said that second-year receiver Sky Moore is taking a good jump. All right. Sky is the limit. Very good. We need more of that, Heath. We'll take a break. All right. We'll take a break.

When we come back, PPR 13 through 24, we'll go through it. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. up to 55 interest-free days, and the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. For a limited time, switch to Shopify point of sale, and you could save up to 20% and improve your bottom line.

We're so serious about savings, we've made this ad 20% shorter. That means you get six seconds back. Just enough time to visit Shopify.com slash POS20. Now that's an efficient ad. Eligibility requirements apply. See Shopify.com slash POS20 for details. All right, let's look at who the second rounders are in our consensus rankings. Obviously, if you just looked at Heath's ranking, some of these guys will be higher or lower, like Josh Jacobs is much higher.

Tony Pollard is 13th in our consensus rankings. He was actually the number nine running back per game last year with only 193 carries and 39 catches in 16 games. Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs are 13 and 14. Is there any question in your mind that you're taking Jacobs over Pollard? Not for me. Not for me, no. If the Raiders came out and said that we're starting Brian Hoyer week one, then it would become a question for me not for me no if the Raiders came out and said that we're starting Brian Hoyer week one

then it would become a question for me but like the the touchdown regression question is on Pollard's side for sure you know because he had a lot of long touchdowns and obviously we think he'll get more of a goal line role but we don't know that for sure i'm not i'm not 100 sure how much his role is going to change i would assume it'll change a little bit potentially a lot but i feel much more confident in josh jacobs give me josh jacobs minus 50 touches and i think i i'd take him over pollard oh i think yeah i think if they both play 17 games, there's a very good chance that Jacobs has 100 more touches. Yeah.

I love Pollard. I did take him over Jacobs. I can't have you guys just agreeing the whole time. We've got to shake it up a little bit. I'll take the Pollard side. Maybe we can do a YouTube poll, Thomas. ADP has them pretty similar. Like I said yesterday, I don't know what to

make of ADP at this point. It's very different depending on where you go. Pollard, Jacobs, Derrick Henry and NFC ADP were all going around the 2-3 turn. That would be amazing. If we're talking about the 1-2 turn here, I took Pollard I think 10th

or 11th in a draft. I was hoping for Barkley. He went one pick before me. I do think there's a, you know, probably maybe a big difference, but I just love Pollard. I just think he's a terrific player. I think we all probably feel that way. My question is, you know, can he handle a big workload? He may have worn down a little bit toward the end of last season. His efficiency went way down. He broke his leg. He did do that. Could not handle it. Yeah. I mean, you know, a lot of guys get injured. When I say that, it's tongue-in-cheek, kind of, because I do think there are 100% football coaches and football guys who would say that without being tongue-in-cheek or without smiling or without laughing. Like, I think there's a big question mark when a guy comes into the NFL as like the most part-time of part-time backs in college and then spends his career as a significant backup. Like it wasn't a one A one B situation

really until last year and then has a career high in touches and suffers a major injury. Yeah. Yeah. Yes, it's true. And even his own running backs coach last year said they wanted to keep him to like 30 touches, 30 snaps. 30 snaps. But then I think the next game he played like 55.

I know. He's just so good. You can't keep him off the field. And Dallas is so high scoring. I just think there's going to be a lot of touchdown opportunities for him. That's one thing is I do think this Dallas offense is going to take a step back next season. It might not be

less efficient, but the switch from Mike McCarthy to Kellen Moore, I think, is going to see a drop in volume, potentially a significant one. The Kellen Moore era Dallas Cowboys were top three in neutral context pace or whatever the term would be. And Mike McCarthy's final three seasons with the Packers when he was calling plays, they were bottom 12 every season.

So I think this offense may still be very good. But in terms of the amount of points they score and the amount of plays they run, I think it's going to take a step back. Right. But can you tell me five offenses that you're very confident are going to be higher scoring than Dallas? And there's still going to be one of the best. No, I think it's a real question. Like there's a legitimate quote from Mike McCarthy saying that Kellen Moore

thought the job of the only job of the offense was to score points. Yeah. And he believes the job of the offense is to let the defense rest. Yeah. Like he wants to do that. What? How he believes the job of the offense is to let the defense rest. Yep. Like he wants to... Well, how do you do that? What? How do you do that?

Long drives. Don't gain too many yards in one play. And run the ball. Run the ball. Right. He's not going to... Okay, listen. He is not going to have 20 carries a game.

If they're going to run the ball 35 times a game, then Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott or someone else is going to average 3.8 yards per carry and get yelled at for being in Tony Pollard's way. Because Tony Pollard's not going to do that. No. Right?

So it's a bad thing if they're going to replace some of Tony Pollard's targets with rush attempts. Why do they have to replace his targets with rush attempts? Why wouldn't he just get more rush attempts and also get targets? Because we don't. He's the lead running back for the Cowboys. That would be, you know, he's going to get his touches with rush attempts? Why wouldn't he just get more rush attempts and also get targets? He's the lead running back for the Cowboys. That would be, you know, he's going to get his touches. They need to give him the ball. I do not believe he's ever going to approach the touches that Ezekiel received as the lead running back for the Dallas Cowboys.

Completely agree with that. I just don't think that he needs to. I think another part that's just kind of to simplify it is just Josh Jacobs was a lot better than Tony Pollard last season. It was. So Pollard needs to take a step forward to be as good as Jacobs was last season. And Jacobs needs to take a step back

in order to justify taking Pollard over Jacobs. And both of those things may be reasonable assumptions, but it's not reasonable enough for me to assume it. I'm going to give Jacobs the benefit of the doubt here because those not very good Josh Jacobs seasons from pre-2023 look a lot like what Tony Pollard did last season. It's right around 15.5 PPR points per game. Yeah, but Pollard was the second back on the team.

They don't have Zeke anymore. And there's no way Pollard's not going to lead the team in carries this year. Oh, I definitely think there is a way. Why would they franchise tag a guy if he's not going to lead the team in carries? It's a horrible decision. I don't think the Cowboys are at the cutting edge of RB valuations. Give me the scenario where he doesn't lead the team in carries. They signed Dalvin Cook for $5 million,

and they just let Dalvin Cook run the ball into the offensive line 240 times, and Tony Pollard gets 230 carries. Yeah, so Cook, that is the only one. If they bring Zeke back, there's no way zeke's gonna out carry pollard that would be insane like cook would be the only one unless mixin becomes available or something like that but i think this is probably going on a little bit too long so just you can wrap it up heath what do you think tony pollard's like carries per game ups or or even touch per game but i think we should carries what we're talking about. He'd never averaged double-digit carries at any level

before last year, and he averaged 12 carries per game last year. Are you thinking that he could have more than 15? No. I think 15 and three and a half catches. You know? Yeah, I think that's possible. I think that's a reasonable upside expectation.

18 to 19 touches per game for Pollard to me at five yards per carry, which he's done three or four seasons. You should not expect him to average five yards per carry if he's going to have a 30% increase in touches. I do expect it because I think he's one of the best running backs. I think he's behind one of the best offensive lines. If I'm going to expect someone to do it, he's going to be on the short list. I think he's behind one of the best offensive lines. If I'm going to expect someone to do it,

it's going to be, he's going to be on the short list. I think he's going to be extremely efficient. He's explosive. He's terrific. And I think as long as Zeke would, Zeke would be a problem

because I think Zeke would have the goal line role. But if I'm not too concerned about the goal line role, I think Pollard's headed for a huge season. Part of the problem there, though, is that still might be

80 fewer carries than Josh Jacobs. Okay. All right. Let's move on. It's also an upside-downside thing. I would say, you know, I think— I love this. I was waiting for this.

It seems like the community thinks that Jacobs has more downside. Oh, I thought you were going to say Pollard has more upside. That's disappointing. No, I don't think Pollard has more upside. Okay. Darn it. All right. Next up up we have

Devontae Adams who has now... Okay, let's see. Devontae Adams has been a top five wide receiver in three of his last four seasons. Top three in PPR in three straight seasons. That's overall.

He's not even a first round pick. Is that justified on Devontante adams and then we have amonra saint brown and aj brown as our next three picks so after those two running backs we've got three wide receivers davante adams amonra saint brown and aj brown what do you think about that Heath do you think those guys should be going before Tony Pollard um so I've got it right now Adams then Pollard um and Amon Ra is after and you say AJ Brown was in there too yeah I've Adams is the only one of that group that I had to have ahead of Pollard they are all ranked between 13 and 18 for me so that's the perfect range um and i i do think that there's a chance that we're going to look too low on adams

again but um like he is he's old enough to where you can worry about the age he's not doesn't sound like very happy right now and his quarterback's a major injury risk he's he is probably quarterback proof still but man brian hoyer aiden o'connell i do think is probably are probably worse than jared stidham the thing that i think is probably being overrated is if Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy. If Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy, I really don't have any concerns about Devontae Adams because like, yes, Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't throw the ball as deep as Derek Carr did last

season. It is interesting that like Derek Carr is now a gunslinger because he played with Devontae Adams and chucked the ball down the field a ton. But like, maybe that's just what happens when you play with Devontae Adams, but either way, Devontae Adams is going to get 30% of the targets as long as he's healthy. Like that's just what Devontae Adams does.

Maybe they're not as far down the field as they were last season. That might not be a bad thing. Cause his catch rate dropped to 55.6%, the lowest since 2015. But like why receivers earn targets. Should he be higher than 15th in the consensus rankings? Devontae Adams?

I think that's a perfectly fine spot for him, taking into account the risk of Jimmy Garoppolo, but I think there's a very good chance that we end up looking pretty dumb about that. I've got him 13th, so yes, he should be higher. Too low. Okay. What about Amonra St. Brown and A.J. Brown? Who do you guys like? This is PPR,

so you could maybe expect 20 more catches for Amonra St. Brown. Who do you like better? Which Brown? St. Brown or regular Brown? ARSB for Heath. Chris? I've got A.J. Brown just ahead. I do have A.J. Brown

projected for 18 fewer catches but he makes up for that and myriad other ways but they're back to back for me heath why uh st brown they are also back to back for me so i wouldn't i think this is one where if i wasn't doing projections aj brown would be ahead of monroe st brown because. Brown, because I do think A.J. Brown, talent-wise, is just on a different level. But especially in full PPR, I'd take A.J. Brown in half PPR and non-PPR. The catch difference is too big for me in full PPR. And do you think we are still talking about...

It's really hard. I cannot sit here and say that Devontae Adams doesn't have first round upside or even top five player upside, right? Do you think obviously we must think Jacobs does. I think Pollard does. Do you think

A.J. Brown and Amandra St. Brown have that kind of upside where they could be top five, top six-ish overall players? I don't mean upside where they could be top five top six ish overall players, but I don't mean like Like like where they should be drafted I don't mean like total points because obviously the quarterbacks but Brown and st. Brown do they have that type of upside I Think AJ does and it's weird because but I think it's probably injury dependent Devante Smith's a pretty small dude if something happened to him

and jalen hertz didn't have that other option then i think it's possible we could see aj brown at 12 targets per game or something and 11 targets per game and i think he would be a top five wide receiver then probably the number one wide receiver. Okay, Chris. Let's move on to our next topic. It's Nick Chubb. He's right behind Devontae Adams, Amonra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown. So the first five picks, sorry, the first five in the rankings,

13, 14, 15, 16, 17, are Jacobs, no, Pollard, Jacobs, Adams, Amonra St. Brown, A.J. Brown. Then we have Nick Chubb, who is not going really to be splitting with Kareem Hunt, obviously. Maybe going to have the biggest share of carries that we've seen from him. So he is 18th. Do you think he should go ahead of anyone we've mentioned so far?

Pollard, Jacobs, Adams, St. Brown, AJ Brown. I don't think so. Um,

I, he had, what was it? 302 carries last season and 37 targets. I mean, he could do better than that, but I think it's not particularly likely. He's always been hyper-efficient. Last season, he averaged five yards per carry on 302 carries. He's an incredible player. This is, I think, the sort of boring pick that you can make

in the second round. It's very, very unlikely that you end up disappointed in Nick Chubb. It's also very, very unlikely that he scores 20 points per game, I think. Yeah, I don't know. I do have Chubb ahead of Brown and St. Brown, but right in this range. And I wouldn't argue strongly. I think the one place where Chubb might have more upside than what we've seen, because I agree with Chris, I think the usage is very similar. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that if Deshaun Watson is good, Nick Chubb has a 20 touchdown. Right. Yeah, that's the upside case.

He's got a 300, like got great running backs like him who get 350 touches, do have those types of seasons. That's fair. Right. And we've had, we would have, you know, oh, why is Kareem Hunt in at the goal line here? And that happened too much over the last few years.

But Deshaun Watson's also someone who could take away some rushing touchdowns. Maybe, I don't know. I don't feel like his catch is going to work. He's not going to throw. I mean, actually, he threw a lot to the running backs last season, which was weird. I think like over 20% of Deshaun Watson's targets went to running backs last year, which was

probably also just a reflection of how uncomfortable he was after not playing for nearly two seasons. That's a confounding variable where I guess Deshaun Watson could throw to his running backs more, and Nick Chubb is the only guy who would benefit from that right now, but I'm

not really taking that possibility too seriously. Let me just tell you where Chubb has finished per game in PPR over the last four seasons. Eighth, well, I'll go from 2019 to 2022. Tenth, eighth, twelfth, eighth. So he's been eight to twelve per

game, four straight seasons in PPR. In half PPR, he's been ninth, fifth, tenth, and eighth. In non-PPR, eighth, fifth,th, 5th, 10th, and 8th in non-PPR 8th, 5th, 7th, and 6th no, sorry, 8th, 5th, 7th, and 5th per game and I screwed up half PPR, half PPR was

9th, 5th, 10th, and 6th so from 8 to 12 in PPR from 5 to 10 in half PPR and 5 to 8 per game in non-PPR that's Nick Chubb over the last four seasons. Extremely consistent. Never been on a great offense, though.

It hasn't happened. Maybe, like Heath said, maybe that'll unlock some touchdown potential. Chubb or Pollard for you guys? Pollard. I've got Pollard, but they're back-to-back. Okay. Any concerns with Chubb? I mean, is he... I called two players yesterday bust-proof, which of think that since since chase is the

second pick in drafts and digs is closer to 12 i think that they could have basically the same season and chase would be considered a bust and digs wouldn't um and you know chase has higgins to contend with but but anyway uh is chubb bus proof? Because there was a little slippage last year. He had a pretty bad, maybe like six game stretch. It was what's wrong with Nick Chubb. Is he bus proof to you guys? Because he's going to be 28 in December. Yeah.

No, I mean, he's a 28 year old running back. And he relies on outlier efficiency and big plays for the majority of his fantasy production. So any slippage, it's kind of the same case as Derrick Henry. I'm I don't like I get Derrick Henry's a year older. And so that's probably why Derrick Henry's going below him. But it's sort of I don't really get the case for Nick Chubb over Derrick Henry. It's it's for me, it's it's Nick Chubb's kind of a worse Derrick Henry, who's a little bit younger,

but I don't know if that should be enough to make up for it. Isn't it closer to two years than one year in age difference? Yeah, this is his age 27 season. He'll turn 28 at the end of the year. That's fair. It is closer to two years. And I do think with Henry that we are seeing some slippage. You know, the metrics aren't as good. They haven't been as good for each of the last two seasons, whereas Chubb still looks like he's still clearly one of the best running backs in football. I think that people feel that

way about Derrick Henry, that maybe we're seeing the decline. OK, now let's take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about the back half of the second round after this. So far, we've had three running backs and three receivers at 13 through 18. Tony Power, Josh Jacobs, Devontae Adams, Amandra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, and Nick Chubb. So who is after Nick Chubb? Who is 19?

It is Garrett Wilson, and then Derrick Henry, and then Jalen Waddell. We'll talk about those three. The last three picks are the quarterbacks, Mahomes, Allen, and Hertz. I keep saying picks. I'm sorry. This is not ADP. This is rankings. The last three players, 22 through 24, are the quarterbacks. But 19 through 21,

Garrett Wilson, Derek Henry, and Jalen Waddell. Heath, your take on that trio, Wilson, Henry, Waddle. Love it. Massive, massive upside from all three of them. There's risk for

Henry, and we haven't seen Wilson do it yet, but I'm all aboard these guys in this range. I think Waddle is the one that I don't have in the first two rounds, but if Tua stays healthy, that will look dumb. Chris, your take on Wilson, Henry, and Waddle? I think they're all fine there. I think I have them all ranked a little bit lower. Waddle's

wide receiver 14 for me, so he's a little lower than this but i i get it i i have cd lamb ahead of garrett wilson we haven't mentioned him right no because he was picked 12 he was oh okay 12th in the rankings okay then that makes sense okay then yeah i don't really have any any kind of complaints about that i wilson it's it's a bit of a dream. We're hoping he can take that step forward, but it's a very reasonable dream. Does knowing that Aaron Rodgers went to a psychedelia conference and was one of their keynote speakers, does that make you feel more or less confident in Garrett Wilson's chances?

More. 100% more. For sure. Definitely more. He's going to see the field so much better this year. He drew a clear line between when he started taking ayahuasca and when he started winning MVPs. I guess he forgot maybe he wasn't taking ayahuasca last year.

He may have just had a bad trip. There's not really, for a player as young and as aggressively ranked as Garrett Wilson is. I feel like there's really not much to say. As long as he's the number one wide receiver in this offense, the way he looked like he should be based on his rookie season, he's probably going to be really, really good. I like I know I'm probably shouldn't care this much about this but the fact that Aaron Rogers is talking about how he could be the best wide receiver in the in the NFL and that the little blurbs about him and Devonte Adams both wearing 17 in the similarities like I my only concern for Garrett Wilson was that Aaron Rogers

is a weird dude and he might get there and decide that Garrett Wilson's not the best wide receiver on the team. It seems like Rodgers already knows that Wilson's the best wide receiver on the team. I mean, this is the most positive Aaron Rodgers has talked about a wide receiver since Jake Junis. He didn't ever talk about Jake Junis like this. Maybe Jake Sternberger? He didn't talk about those guys like this at all. Yeah, he never said that those guys could be the best wide receiver in football uh at least not it's just not it's called a joke guys i know

but but but no he is really pumping up garrett wilson do you guys like wilson or waddle better wilson yeah wilson yeah one stat one number on waddle and it's so hard to know. I mean, his ADOT is so different. His catch rate is so different. Just his catches. In two seasons, he had 104 catches as a rookie. He had 75 catches as a sophomore. But in the 12 games that Tua Tungavailoa started and finished, Jalen Waddle was on pace for only 79 catches.

But 1,514 yards, 11 touchdowns on only 125 targets. So he's just incredible. I don't really know what... I think I'd take Wilson over Waddle too because I expect more targets. That's pretty much the only justification

I could have. I can't say he's a better player than Jalen Waddle. If you put them in the same situation, I think they could be very similar in terms of their talent. I've seen enough from Jalen Waddle where I would feel more confident in him being that kind of producer than I would Garrett Wilson. And that's not to say Garrett Wilson can't be better, but I love seeing what Jalen Waddle has done.

It reminds me of Stefan Diggs back in Minneapolis or Minnesota, where he filled so many different roles and excelled at them, no matter what they asked him to do. He was a possession receiver who caught a hundred passes one year. He was purely a deep threat one season. And that to me says that Jalen Waddell is a legitimate number one alpha type wide receiver. It's just,

he plays with Tyreek Hill. So I think that 12-game sample with Tua Tungabalowa when he finished all his games, I think he averaged 17 points per game, which is really, really good. That's great. That feels like the ceiling in this role, unfortunately. Yeah, could be.

Derek Henry guys. Is there anything that makes him a bust in round two other than injury? No. No, just because he's going to get so much volume that it feels like 1500 rushing yards is kind of guaranteed, which is wild. Even if he's four yards per carry, it has the end of basically the last good season of his career. Because he was, what, like 4.4 last year.

He's just going to get so many carries and touchdowns. He had 13 touchdowns last year. He also had 33 catches last year. That's the key, is that the all-purpose yards from scrimmage, this was the second-best season. Right. Oh, I never gave this stat. I wanted to give this stat. Nick

Chubb has averaged... I did look at his last four seasons and I removed two games where he played fewer than 25% of the snaps. Doing that, he's averaged something like 103 or more total yards per game every year.

Nick Chubb. So just keep that in mind. His floor has been double-digit fantasy points without any catches, without any touchdowns. That's kind of crazy. Yeah, I mean, the only thing with Nick Chubb is just when you're projecting his range of outcomes for every game, it's like he's definitely going to get 12 points or 10 points, whatever you want to put it at. And then it's just does he get to 20 if he scores a touchdown?

And there are there are other running backs who you can say have paths to 20 plus PPR points in a game without needing multiple touchdowns. Nick Chubb probably needs at least one touchdown and often multiple touchdowns to get to 20 plus PPR points. So that's the only thing is he's just more touchdown dependent than most running backs in this range.

But that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's just it's a more limited path to a lead upside. All right, we finish out our top 24 with 22, 23, and 24. And those are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Heath, did we get the order right? I don't know. I know we got number one, right? I have gone back and forth between Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, All offseason, I currently have Allen higher. I have no, I would not bet

on who I'm going to have ranked higher a month from now. I just, I don't, I think there's reasons to think either of them could challenge Mahomes. There's no reason to think either of them should be expected to be better than Mahomes. Dave, you know, we did an episode bust proof dave said hertz is the most bust proof because he has the more rushing upside than mahomes and more weapons if you took one away due to injury he'd still be better yeah i don't know

what well i don't know what patrick mahomes would do if you took away one of his best well what if he took away kelsey we've never seen it what if what if he didn't have what Patrick Mahomes would do if you took away one of his best. Well, what if he took away Kelsey? We've never seen it. What if he didn't have Kelsey? I would guess that he would be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and Tennessee. Okay. Look, I think it's a fair argument, but I can see, you know, I don't think you're wrong. Heath said there's no case for Allen ahead of Mahomes. Right. That's silly.

Allen has been better than Mahomes two of the last three seasons. And last year, the gap was 0.2 points like their aggregate points over the past three seasons per game allen is probably a point per game ahead yeah come on maybe more come on heath um yeah i don't i don't know i'm gonna have to double check those numbers on the i know going into last year, Allen had been the best quarterback two years in a row, and Mahomes had been the best quarterback for the past three years average. But maybe that's not the case anymore.

I mean, I am more concerned about Josh Allen going backwards than I am Mahomes or Hurts. I think there's more risk with Josh Allen than there is with Mahomes or with Hurts. Is it because of the Stefan Diggs thing? What? I think it's a Stefan Diggs thing. I think when rushing

quarterbacks, yes, even Cam Newton, start having injuries that affect them, so far historically, that just continues to happen. I think if he stops rushing... What? If it's an arm injury?

I don't know that it matters what type of injury it is. You can only take so many hits like he takes, and he's not shown any willingness to stop taking them. Okay. He laughs about it. He likes it. And I think that's wildly dangerous for a quarterback yeah and if he does start protecting himself i'm just talking for a long time to give chris a chance to prove me wrong

because i think he's looking numbers up um if he does it's only like 0.5 points per game over the past three seasons but it is allen's edge if if he does stop running like they're talking about if damian harris is the goal linebacker instead of Josh Allen, then I don't think that Allen's even in the conversation. All right. But obviously you do think that he is in the conversation. Yeah, for sure. He's second right now for me.

Okay. Should Mark Andrews go ahead of these quarterbacks? No. I don't think so. No. Okay. Is there anyone that we did not say that in this show or yesterday's show, the top 12,

anyone who's outside the top 24 of the consensus rankings that you think should be ahead of Alan Mahomes hurts. There are certainly guys I can make a case for, right? Like if we get to training camp day one and Brees Hall is cleared to play, I will probably move him into that range. I'm really, really worried about how to rank Ramondre Stevenson, which is to say that I'm really worried I'm ranking him both too high and too low because my gut is to rank him almost as a first round pick.

I think like if he's back in that role where he's going to get 55, 65 catches, I think he's probably going to be a first round pick. I think like if he's back in that role where he's going to get 55, 65 catches, I think he's probably going to be a first rounder. Cause that offense is going to be a lot better than it was last season. Just by the fact that they have an offensive coordinator, let alone one who I think we all think is a pretty good one in Bill O'Brien. So it's just, we don't really know what the role is going to be,

but if Ramondre Stevenson's role is going to be but if remandre stevenson's role is close to what it was for most of last season i think he's probably going to end up being a borderline first rounder um i think the guy who i would not rank ahead of these guys yet but i definitely could see ranking ahead of these guys soon is joe mixon because we did this thing where we downgraded joe mixon like round seven or something because he had some off the field troubles again and the bingles were talking really like they don't like him at all um treating him like malcolm brogdon basically and then we're malcolm brogdon is a basketball player yeah we're gonna get to july first or the first day of training camp and somebody is going

to look at the Bengals depth chart and say huh Joe Mixon's still there and Samaj AP Ryan's not why isn't why wouldn't Joe Mixon be a top 20 pick if we were going by my projections Joe Mixon would be a borderline first rounder for me that role is just the the starting running back for the Bengals last season I think it was 255 carries and 89 targets or something. It was just that just take the games that Mixon played plus the two that Samajan Piran started. And that's just a hugely valuable role in an elite offense. And it's probably a case where we're overthinking it. I do think it's reasonable to wait to move him up to that. I'm going to make him show up

to training camp and the Bengals let him show up to training camp before I make that move. But if we get to the first day of training camp, then he should definitely be top 20. Yeah, if you're wondering, who is this year's Josh Jacobs? Probably nobody, but maybe Joe Mix. Yeah, maybe. Okay, thank you to Heath and Chris. Great stuff. We've got backfield battles and some fantasy jeopardy tomorrow, and hopefully time for some emails.

I think we should be able to scoot some of those in there. Fantasyfootball.cbsi.com. If you did not see Beyond the Box score, you can see it on youtube.com slash fantasyfootball today, but you will hear it on Saturday. We'll be publishing then. So have a great day, everybody. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Day.