Fantasy Football Today - Rankings Conundrums - Who's Dynasty QB1? How Many Rookies are Top 12 RBs? + more (05/27 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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Starting point is 00:01:16 So, what should we talk about? No sugar added. Neutral. Refreshingly simple. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. I am joined today by, I think he actually referred to himself as one of the dinosaurs of the industry. I will say one of the legends of the industry, Smitty from the Fantasy Football Show. Thank you for being here today. It's good. As you were saying earlier, we've both been doing this a long time, but it may be the first time we've ever talked to each other on air. So thanks for being here and tell everybody like what your experience in the industry has been like and where they can find

Starting point is 00:02:04 your work today. Yeah, man. Thanks for having me on. I, you know, I've seen you around for a while. We haven't been able to get on a show together. So this is great. Um, and, and you guys do awesome work on the show. So appreciate you having me on. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:02:18 I'm on YouTube every single day. I think my, my, my main kind of thing is that I go live whenever news breaks. So I just kind of live in the studio here. And so yeah, you can find me on YouTube at The Fantasy Football Show and on Instagram. I'm pretty active on Instagram too. Those are my two main platforms. So youtube.com slash The Fantasy Football Show. That's where I'm at when the news breaks and I got to have you on when something big happens sometime, I'll send you a link, but that's kind of what, how I live and die is based on news and it's pretty,

Starting point is 00:02:52 maybe when Aaron Rogers finally decides that if he wants to play football or not, that that'll be a big show. You know, today is going to be, I do this often with guests. I bring somebody on to help me solve my problems, which will eventually help you guys solve your problems. This week I am updating positional rankings for every position, as I usually do at the end of the month. And just a reminder, you can see those rankings at CBS fantasy.

Starting point is 00:03:19 You'll be able to see the updated trade charts over on sports line. And as I go through this process, and I do it more than once a month, but I publish it once a month, there's always these little sticky points in the rankings. And I'm sure you feel the same way as I do about rankings. Like, can we just do like tiers or something? Because a lot of these guys, there's not huge differences, but people want players listed in an order. So I've got some questions, questions like who really should be the QB one in dynasty? How many rookies should be top 12 at running back

Starting point is 00:03:51 and several more? And I'm just going to ask you, we'll talk through it. I may even adjust some rankings as we talk on the show, but we always start with three questions for our guest. And one of the things I wanted to ask you as somebody who's done this for a while, is it used to be, if you could just pay more attention than half of your league or maybe even all of your league and really find an edge by knowing stuff they didn't know. It seems like information, especially statistics, have become so prevalent on social media everywhere.

Starting point is 00:04:26 Is there still an edge to be had in fantasy football? I think so. I think there's always going to be an edge because it really comes down to predicting the breakouts and sleepers and up and going players, you know, comes down to that every year and those change, you know, and every year we got a new group of guys and this year is more beautiful than ever because of the running back injection we have with these RBS. I mean, to your next question, it'll be a question I'll answer then. But I think you're always just kind of fighting that being right in landing, you know, your bold shots. And so that's kind of like, I love doing that. I love trying to find the next JD5, try and find the next breakout running back, who's the next Bucky. And I think that, yeah, that's what it's all about. I mean, and the stats are fun. And I often get coined as a guy that doesn't, you know, go off stats as much ago, I've got instinct, which I don't know, I take pride in that. But at the same time, I think, you know, it's more about for me, the gut

Starting point is 00:05:27 instinct, and then and then what data backs that up to kind of solidify it for me. So yeah, I totally think there's an edge, I think we'll always have an edge, not to mention you're fighting yourself, trying to make your weaknesses and the strengths. I mean, we go to school, to try and better our weaknesses and all that. But for some reason, fantasy football players are like, I'm a bad drafter, but a great trader.

Starting point is 00:05:47 I'm a great trader, but a bad drafter. And so why not make one of those weaknesses a strength? So you can always get better and learn, you know, at this. But a lot of people don't put in that work. And it really is work. I mean, our girlfriends, our wives, everybody's significant other, they look at us like we're crazy in here,

Starting point is 00:06:05 but we're actually trying to learn and get better at something that I think you can actually get better. Now with best ball and all that, you can make money off it. So it's like, there's a lot at stake. That was a great answer. You referenced the next question. Who is your favorite rookie that is usually available in round three or later of rookie drafts?

Starting point is 00:06:27 In round three of a rookie draft, one guy, we're talking up a ton in my community and I don't know how much you guys have talked about, but Jacory Krosky Merritt. I love that kid and his, his rise, I think is eventual. Now there's no lock when you're talking third rounder. There's no lock when you're talking about running back that late seventh rounder, but Adam Peters, if we look back, Adam Peters, the new GM in Washington is the guy who identified partly identified Brock Purdy in the seventh round identified George Kittle late in the draft. I mean, this is a scout monster. And so if he likes your Corey Kroski merit, aka little bill, it's a little easier say little

Starting point is 00:07:10 bill. He's he's one of my favorite guys that I'm scooping up and in in best ball and really in any draft, he's going in the 200. So it's it's waiver wire fodder. If it doesn't work out, it's not going to cost you a thing. love I love the Cory Koska Mary even in redraft. I like we Yeah, we have talked about him a little bit Before the draft I believe was both Jacob Gibbs and Matt Waldman brought him up during our rookie running back preview And I do think like the draft capital Yeah, it's not great But the situation with an Austin Eckler at an age

Starting point is 00:07:45 where he could fall off at any moment, and Brian Robinson really failing to provide the explosive plays. And they are a team that's used three backs in the past. So he may be one injury away, or he may just go take a job on his own. A lot of times when I'm getting these questions ready, I like to go through and look at somebody's, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:04 their recent shows or their tweets. And you've had a couple of, uh, maybe relatively hot takes, maybe warm takes about Patrick Mahomes and Marvin Harrison, Jr. Which one is more likely to be right? Your Patrick Mahomes bold prediction or your Marvin Harrison, Jr. bold prediction. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:08:22 So Marvin Harrison, Jr. definitely was a dud last year from the expectation level at least. I mean, 808 touchdowns is still a good year for a rookie, but yeah, I think Mahomes, I mean, Mahomes has been, you know, QB one, QB three, QB two, QB one, and then yeah, QB seven and QB 10, depending on your scoring. Right. There's only been two years where he hasn't stepped up and Tom Brady had years where he was a little bit flat like it happens and his career still he's not even in the middle of his career. I love that people think he's incapable of returning to glory not just top five,

Starting point is 00:09:00 six quarterback numbers. I mean to number one, number two consistently. And he had some injuries. You have Andy Reid constantly morphing over the years of run heavy, makes these running back monsters. Then he has Tyreek Hill and he goes pass heavy. And then the last two years,

Starting point is 00:09:17 there's been a combination of crazy things going on. And last year specifically, losing Rashid Rice, losing Hollywood Brown, having, you know, all kinds of other issues and worthy barely getting his feet wet and kind of learning along the way. And so for me, Mahomes is probably I think when we look back on the biggest misstep from a consensus wise ADP, the biggest blunder in fantasy will be Mah homes is ADP. I think mo homes in the sixth seventh round is criminal It bakes in every sit of every bit of risk that people spit out when they talk about how how bad he's gonna Disappoint you or why would you waste to pick up mo homes?

Starting point is 00:09:56 He's in the sixth or seventh round if he if he's QB seven or eight or nine or ten He pretty much earns that so mo, Mahomes to me is not only the more likely, even though I like both, you know, MHA and Mahomes, it's the one that could win you a league without question of the two. You know, I love that. I love that you brought up Brady and how that happened to him. One guy that we referenced earlier, Aaron Rodgers, we saw that before his MVP late in his career. He had a couple of really mediocre efficiency type seasons. And then all of a sudden he's just an elite producer again.

Starting point is 00:10:28 Elite quarterbacks are going to give you elite seasons. If you get a chance to draft them at a discount, you should absolutely do that. We're going to take our first break and then we'll jump into some some rankings, conundrums. There are very few things that you can be certain of in life, but you can always be sure the sun will rise each morning. You can bet your bottom dollar that you'll always need air to breathe and water to drink. And of course, you can rest assured that with Public Mobile's 5G subscription phone plans,

Starting point is 00:10:55 you'll pay the same thing every month. With all of the mysteries that life has to offer, a few certainties can really go a long way. Subscribe today for the peace of mind you've been searching for. Public Mobile. Different is calling. So you've always been picky about your produce. But now you find yourself checking every label to make sure it's Canadian. So be it. At Sobe's, we always pick guaranteed fresh Canadian produce first. Restrictions apply. See See in store or online for details. So I think I've had four different QB ones in the last calendar year in dynasty.

Starting point is 00:11:37 I've had three different QB ones in the last three months. And the way I often frame that to people is listen, whoever you're getting at QB three is probably a discount because I view these guys kind of all in the same tier, maybe you think it's QB3 is probably a discount because I view these guys kind of all in the same tier. Maybe you think it's QB4, especially if you think Mahomes is going to bounce back. But do you think that there is somebody who should definitely be QB1 in dynasty rankings right now? Definitely no. I mean, Josh Allen and JD5 to me, I think Lamars as much as people get really mad when you talk about Lamar's inconsistencies over the years, not lately. But lately I tied to Henry I tied to having some continuity or some some balance to the offense really. So and I worry about that with Henry's, you know, potential decline.

Starting point is 00:12:20 We never know when it's going to happen. But I think Josh Allen's proven and he can sustain everything by himself. Imagine if Buffalo Spartans up and somehow gets him a weapon that can be a top five to ten wide receiver. But I think JD five is the guy you have to go with because of the ability of run the ball and not to mention that he's untapped so far. We have a tendency, I think for for fantasy owners at least to to look at JD five as a he's already hit a ceiling. Whereas any other rookie we give so much leeway to say he could become, you know,

Starting point is 00:12:58 five X better. And it's like JD five was so good. Everybody just assumes we've seen it. We haven't even seen him scratch the surface. So and he's a gunslinger. He comes out of college with a 40 passing touchdown, 4 INT ratio, 10 rushing touchdowns. I mean he is just a monster on all sides of things. He was number one in FBS in, in 20 plus yard throws. I think his, his percentage was 67% and that was the highest in the last 10 years.

Starting point is 00:13:31 So you could almost make arguments for him being one of the better pocket passers to come out in the last decade. And people just kind of look at them and say, this is going to be a guy that will be amazing running. He'll need to develop as a pat. No, he's a gunslinger. And so I think he's capable of 40 touchdown passes on the regular once he gets into full JD5 mature mode.

Starting point is 00:13:55 And he's surrounded by one of the most up and coming organizations that has been taken over one year. And Adam Peters, as you could allude to from my other comment, is one of the best GMs in football already. And he gets some Debo, he's gonna surround him with talent as the years go on. And more importantly, Washington's gonna be one of the most attractive places to go for free agents

Starting point is 00:14:19 and it's just gonna grow the interest and the talent around JD-5. It's just gonna be hard to miss on JD5 unless he gets hurt. You know, that's the, that's the thing. If Dan Schneier, who's on this show very regular regularly before the draft last year had concerns about Daniel's size and playing style, I think he answered some of the concerns last year by showing that no, he wasn't just going to run into tacklers with reckless abandon like he did his last year at LSU. He played smarter football.

Starting point is 00:14:51 And so it's funny you say that because I said, I think back in January, if Jaden Daniels gets a real number two wide receiver, then he might be my number one quarterback and redraft in 2025. Well, I've done the 2020-25 projections and Jaden Daniels is my number one QB for this year in the projections and he's five years younger than Lamar Jackson, six years younger than Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. So it's pretty easy for me to justify putting Daniels at QB1. I think the thing we haven't seen, you're right. The upside to be better than he was last year certainly exists. It's hard, I think, for some people to say, well, I've seen

Starting point is 00:15:30 Lamar score 32 points a game. I've seen Josh Allen score 27 fantasy points a game for five straight years. I just, I want to see Daniels do that before I value him as QB one. The great thing is you don't really have to. Most people have Jackson or Allen as the number one quarterback. If you want to make that move to get to Daniels, you're going to get plus value added into that deal. And you may just, if you look at my rankings, you're actually going to get the number one quarterback also.

Starting point is 00:15:57 So it's a great situation to kind of maximize that value. And it is a tier of three for me. What about his bursa sack though? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, people were, it's crazy. You know, the amount of doubters there were, it doesn't seem like it now, but it was, we had a live chat cause we were big JD five community and we had our live chat constantly full of he's too small. He's going to get crushed. He's got the bursa sack teams are avoiding them because of the bump on his elbow. Like it was, people just wanted him to fail. Yeah. He did not.

Starting point is 00:16:30 Yeah, he did not. He did not fail. And yeah, I mean, I think adding Debo, like look at his situation. Everything is improved. Everything's going to get better. There's nothing. There's no red flags of any kind. It's going to be, it's just going to be a much improved situation, I think every step of the way for him. And at least as he progresses and Debo Samuel, as I always say, may have busted in San Francisco, had he stayed, he had a fractured relationship with the fan base from the holdout. And it just he was not happy. He was not happy at all. San Francisco. They didn't use him right there, ran him into the ground. And so him going to San, or him going from San Francisco to Washington is going to rejuvenate his career in a way that gives us another year and a half of Debo, at least, I think.

Starting point is 00:17:17 He's a great combination with McLaurin. McLaurin can do the downfield stuff. Debo can do the YAC stuff. It should work out great for everyone involved. The funny thing is like I have this concern about the top of my rankings at the top 12. And then it's even worse at the bottom of the top 12. And if you look at the values in my dynasty rankings, you'll see that Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Drake May, CJ Stroud, Those guys are all very, very close for me. Jordan Love and Brock Purdy too in terms of value. But there's four guys in that tier right around QB 12. Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Drake May, CJ Stroud. Did I really have a difficult time separating or just even like I think somebody could maybe make the case and I'll give you the chance right now to make the case of those four quarterbacks,

Starting point is 00:18:07 Nicks, Herbert, May and Stroud. Is there anything that separates those guys for you or are we just kind of waiting to see what the second year guys do in year two and whether or not Justin Herbert gets to throw more than 500 passes with his current coaching staff? I think so. I think the number one for me is Nix for a bunch of reasons. Number one, untapped ceiling, which you could say about Drake May. Right. But it comes down to, I think for a lot of us, when even if you're subconsciously doing it,

Starting point is 00:18:35 who's in the best offense or who's in the best offensive situation? And while Drake May could be, if Kyle Williams develops, they drop out for line, they take Henderson, who's one of the best, if not the best pass blocking back in the draft class. It could be one of the best pass blocking backs in the NFL, you know, nearly immediately,

Starting point is 00:18:53 at least handful. And so I think there's a lot of good going on in New England, but that's gonna take time. You've got Harvey, RJ Harvey, who I'm sure we'll talk about in a minute, who I absolutely love. You've got Sean Payton, you've got an offense offensive line and Bo Nicks already showing signs that he's scratching at the surface himself of

Starting point is 00:19:13 being a potential low end elite quarterback. I think that give me the offense give me the upside that I believed in before the draft so I clearly like them now in this situation, but I think by far and away, I'm going to lean toward the explosion and offense and the upside of Denver. But I think when you look at like Herbert, I liken him to a race car that can go 200 miles an hour in a race with other 200 mile an hour race cars, but his coach has put a governor restrictor on his gas pedal.

Starting point is 00:19:46 And he's like, you can go 120, that's it. And so we'll never, and Herbert's an amazing quarterback. And if he had gotten traded or someday does get traded to Minnesota, the throw footballs to JJ, he will be a top five quarterback without hesitation. But right now he is restricted. He's got one handcuff to his leg

Starting point is 00:20:07 in both behind his back and what can you expect what do you have 30, 300 what do you have last year passing is ridiculous compared to what he's capable of of 5,000 yards so yeah I can't I can't bet on Herbert at all so so the one it's funny because I think like a lot of people are having the Knicks versus May discussion. And there are people who have Justin Herbert four or five spots higher than I do based on the talent and just saying the situation will eventually work its way itself out. But the one guy you didn't mention and the one guy that I'm struggling with,

Starting point is 00:20:38 most of us had him in our top six dynasty quarterbacks one year ago today, CJ Stroud after a a great rookie year and then a disappointing second season. I think there was a lot of hope with Stephon Diggs coming in and Tank Dell coming back from injury and he's supposed to have one of the best receiving corps if not the best in the NFL. Diggs has now gone to New England. Tank Dell is probably going to miss this entire season. They drafted a couple of rookie wide receivers out of Iowa State. And if you listened to the show a couple weeks ago, you know, you heard some really encouraging things about the potential for Jaden Higgins

Starting point is 00:21:11 in that offense. But where are you at on Stroud right now? Like is it a good buy opportunity because his value has fallen so much in the last year? Or was that rookie year a bit of a mirage? I'm a little worried about him more than I'm excited. I think he's closer to disappointing and closer to bouncing back. I think he could be something in between and I'm not calling him necessarily a bus in the NFL or anything. But when you're talking about how deep the quarterback pool is with Kyler and Dak being

Starting point is 00:21:36 almost outside of the desire to start somebody, I don't need to go near Stroud and I probably won't. Penick Jr. is more attractive. Bo Nix is more attractive to me. I think that Stroud with the offensive line woes, they lost guys as it could be considered one of the most concerning offensive line situations in 2025, mixed with the fact that they still have an unproven wide receiver room that has two rookies trying to battle it out and learn. And we saw, you know, Xavier Worthy need to learn, it took him a while.

Starting point is 00:22:07 And Stroud taking such a big step backward, then making Bobby Slawek a scapegoat, who I think will be very beneficial to Miami. And I think that that's part of the course in the NFL, there's failure, they point fingers. This guy was as popular as Ben Johnson walking out of last season, Bobby Sloak, and decided to stay. And then, and then they make him a scapegoat. I just don't know if all this change in turmoil is going to make for a better 2025 as, as you know, we were so disappointed last year. I just,

Starting point is 00:22:39 there's a lot of change in moving parts. I'm backing off. I want nothing to do with it. Let's move to the running back position. You talked about what a great year it was in terms of draft classes for this position and we needed it. We'll talk about the older guys in just a moment, but we're getting ready to lose some really fantastic fantasy running backs. Maybe not this year. We, some of us thought it would happen last year and it didn't,

Starting point is 00:23:02 but let's talk about the rookies first. How many rookie running backs from the 2025 class should be ranked inside the top 12 running backs in dynasty? Top 12, I would say Gentie, top 1 to 3, Harvey, Hampton and Hendy all could be top 10. So I have Gentie, Henderson and Hampton all on my top 12th. I don't have Harvey. I want to talk about Henderson first and then I'll let you make your case for why I'm too low on RJ Harvey. Cause I think everybody has Gentie and Hampton. And then there are some Judkins people. There are some Johnson's people. There are some Harvey people. There are some Henderson people. You like a couple of those guys.

Starting point is 00:23:46 I love the fit in New England with Josh McDaniels for Trevion Henderson. I love the fact that they ended with Ramondre Stevenson, who is really, I think at this point in his career, proven that he's best served in that between the tackles, um, like take, take all those trap touches and leave the more valuable touches for Henderson. I think we could see 60 catches from Henderson as a rookie. Is there more than that though? And we've talked about the pass blocking, which is going to be, I think, going to be

Starting point is 00:24:16 fantastic. The receiving work's going to be fantastic. The question is, is he one of those guys that sneaks into the top 12 because he catches 60 passes regularly or could he turn into a like? He's not gonna be jimmy or gibbs But a jimmy or gibbs type who's catching all those passes and having great success as a rusher Yeah, I think he's amazing and his spot couldn't be better It's one of those deceptive spots a lot of people said oh what it happened like this, you know

Starting point is 00:24:42 He's landing with remand, but you think about it, contract extension and or not. And it's really just like a one year thing for Stevenson. Anyway, they could cut them right here. But this is a situation where, you know, close your eyes and picture yourself, you know, a month before the draft, where was nausea going? Even though we knew that they're probably drafting a running back, he was going around four or five. Where was Stevenson going when no one really thought that New England

Starting point is 00:25:07 would grab one of the big dogs? He's going what? Nine, 10. Nobody had faith in Stevenson. I don't know why all of a sudden he's a problem. Henderson is I don't think you're wrong to talk about Jim Mary Gibbs when you talk about Henderson. This is a running back. You want to have a Monty.

Starting point is 00:25:23 These teams run the ball 400 to 450, 400, whatever amount of times you're wanting handy to get probably 190 185 210 touch, you know, carries and then four receptions, five receptions a game. That's Bruce Hall. That's where Bruce Hall's at his best, which I think is also a running back completely undervalued this year, where the risk is completely baked in because you want him in that Jameer Gibbs role, and the Jets are gonna run more.

Starting point is 00:25:55 Back to Hendy, same thing. Gibbs, Hall, and Hendy are all players that they need to be in these so-called committees that are not even committees. They're workhorse Alvin Camaro rules that require more work up the gut. Mostert was used so much the year that HN was the league's historical top yards per carry running back in the National Football League, in the history of National Football League, 7.8 yards a carry.

Starting point is 00:26:23 He was at his best when Mostert was getting the grunt work. So, Hendy is gonna have an unbelievable career, unbelievable season, and as you alluded to, his pass blocking potential and upside that they drafted him for as they drafted offensive line to all protect Drake May. It's all about Drake May and Hendy will not, you won't be able to keep them off the, you'll have to keep them on the field. You won't be able to take them off the field. We had a comment in the chat and I love it when they just lead us into the next discussion because heart Choff says Harvey will probably catch, C60 catches too. I, listen, Sean Payton I think and I don't know maybe you expected Harvey to be drafted that early. I think Sean

Starting point is 00:27:03 Payton took RJ Harvey even earlier in the NFL draft than most of the Harvey backers thought that Harvey should be drafted. So that fact that you've got Peyton reaching for a running back, it does put in people's minds, oh, is he going to have the Alvin Camaro role? Right? Is he going to be that guy that's just thriving on passing downs? There's a little difference between him and Henderson in that Harvey doesn't, hasn't proven to be as valuable, both in terms of receiving

Starting point is 00:27:32 and in terms of pass blocking as Henderson. And I know a lot of people will say, well, if you're playing in a Sean Payton offense, those guys aren't usually blocking anyway. But Givante Williams did a lot of pass blocking last year for Denver. It was, he wasn't very good when he had the ball. That's why he played so much is because he was doing a good job protecting the quarterback. Do you think Harvey, like as a rookie week one is able to walk into that

Starting point is 00:27:56 full time passing downs role and what type of committee do you think we see in Denver? Yeah, I'm, I'm higher on Harvey. I'm not high on everybody. It seems like everyone we've talked about, I'm high on Harvey. I'm not high on everybody. It seems like everyone we talked about. I'm just like, you know, I would much rather have you on to talk about guys you like, talk about guys that you don't. This is good. This is good for everybody. I am probably, you know, critical of more players than people imagine right now,

Starting point is 00:28:18 just because we're talking about my favorite guys. But Harvey, yeah, Harvey, I could care zero about him being 24 years old. And if anything, the dynasty community is so hell bent on you turn 24, 25, you're gone. Like, and people don't they play too far into the future. And Harvey, to me, he not not only am I excited about who he is as a prospect going into the NFL draft, and I was always thinking he was gonna go in the second round, but I thought Scadaboo would go higher too. I thought it's got, so I always love rookie running backs to a fault. And I always think they're gonna go higher than they go.

Starting point is 00:28:54 So that's one of my weaknesses. I think they're all super human. But I think you have him in a situation where you've seen what Alvin Kamara could do under Sean Payton You saw how all the reports about him gushing over Harvey and that he actually would have probably taken him higher But they took in their mind a chance that he would fall and when you think about it, Chicago had two opportunities To take Harvey or to take a running back in the running backs I think the way they were falling it was

Starting point is 00:29:24 Understandable that you would be concerned about Chicago saying, let's go early on one of these guys. And so they didn't. And I believe they'll regret it. I think Harvey could easily be as good or better than Hendy his rookie year because only Gentie is guaranteed more volume. I think even though handy will take complete, you know control the of the of the New England backfield from the perspective I described being a workhorse and I think Hampton will eventually as well. Judkins could but he's You know sharing with the running back I had ranked higher than Judkins and Dylan Sampson and Caleb's in a timeshare It really comes down to Harvey and Gentie and then everybody else catching up. I think after his rookie year, he will be one of the more sought after running backs

Starting point is 00:30:11 in the National Football League or in fantasy football. I think he could catch 60 passes with ease in that Sean Payton offense. They've already talked about designing receiving plays for him and talked about him being in every down back and estimate in McLaughlin have already had their chance and didn't deliver so much so that Peyton was rotating them like crazy last year. I think Harvey is a top six to 10 running back as a rookie. Wow, that's what we'll clip that one

Starting point is 00:30:41 and play it again in the middle of the year. If you're right on that one because that is fantastic That's the young guys. I look at my dynasty running back rankings There's one guy over the age of 26 years old in my top 15 And that's Saquon Barkley because of what he did last year, but you get past the top 15 And there's a lot of names that have dominated the top five, top ten of running back rankings for the last five to seven, eight years. Guys like Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, all those guys somewhere around RB20 for me in dynasty.

Starting point is 00:31:21 They fooled us last year, right? Like they all kind of got to the age last year, especially for dynasty managers. They were probably two years ago, but to where we were supposed to start seeing some sort of decline, um, especially particularly for guys changing teams that late in their career that hasn't hadn't worked out traditionally very well. And they were awesome almost across the board, except for McCaffrey who got hurt. And they were awesome almost across the board, except for McCaffrey who got hurt. Do you just have faith that these guys are so special that they're going to beat the odds again? Or are you trying to take advantage in your dynasty league of managers who feel that way

Starting point is 00:31:59 and getting surplus value on? Because we know that father times undefeated and eventually the declines didn't happen. Is it start does it start happening for some of these guys in 2025? Yeah, I think at the end of the day, 29 might be the I call it the hold your breath year where you're like, okay, I'm going to plug my nose, hold my breath and hope he gets to one more year that was 28. But what it comes down to me and this brings you back to Harvey is it's more of a window of time for our bees six year shelf life whatever you it could burn me, but I'm not on Christian McCaffrey this year. I wasn't last year. He's one of my biggest avoids. And, and I think that they were going to see, you know, more

Starting point is 00:32:52 injuries. His body just can't, it doesn't matter how strong his heart and soul is and determination. Same thing with Nick Chubb when he was jumping out of the gym a couple weeks ago and we're like, Oh, whoa, whoa, whoa. You know, you see that stuff, but it's different when you get on the field and when you saw Nick Chubb, I don't know if you saw the footage of Chubb cutting and stuff, it looked like Christian Okoye at- Going uphill doing those drills. I don't even understand how that's possible

Starting point is 00:33:15 for a perfectly healthy in their prime human being, much less after what Nick Chubb's been through. But then you watch him on the field cutting and he looks slow and he looks sluggish. And it's just a different thing. Chubb is never going to be able to be the same, but he looks great in the gym. And so we get tricked a lot by seeing these guys in the gym. And, you know, Derek Henry going uphill and Derek Henry's one of those players, if you want to bank on someone going one more year, I have no problem with it at all. But I just see players like Bucky

Starting point is 00:33:42 Irving, who's one of my favorite players is here right around his ADP. I see there's just other opportunities for me that have no little risk. Everybody's a risk, but, and so I just avoid it. But yeah, I think, I think that maybe we get another year out of our, our window of expectation, but with, with Harvey, if you give him that six to seven year shelf life, that puts him at 29 when he's at the end of that six year shelf life. So that's why I have no concerns about him starting late at 24. It's not like he's been in the league two or three years, taking a decent amount of,

Starting point is 00:34:15 of beating, letting his, you know, going through three NFL seasons, long lengthy seasons, even if you don't play as much as the average bear, you're still getting beat up, you're still getting worn down. He's literally 24 with zero miles on the odometer. So him going six years to 29, that puts him in age 29. I have no question about that at all. Maybe Hampton plays one more year than Harvey, or maybe Hendy plays one more year than Harvey, and

Starting point is 00:34:44 Hendy's not exactly the youngest either. That's it. That's the only thing I think we're affected by. Harvey, people scared of Harvey because of his age is an opportunity. And just real quickly, because I didn't say it, he reminds me of Alvin Camero when I watch him play. It reminds me of Alvin Camero meets Bucky Irving. I think that's how Harvey looks. He's he's angry

Starting point is 00:35:05 He he is one of the most explosive rookies in this class I think Gentie is obviously top of every category But if we have if we if we have I'm not saying we will because I have genties Literally could be number one in dynasty for me if we have what happened last year where BTJ outscores neighbors, yeah, Harvey's the guy that could get that done if if it were to happen. Let's let's take a short break. And then when we come back, we'll get to the wide receiver and tied in position. Spring is here and you can now get almost anything you need delivered with Uber Eats.

Starting point is 00:35:40 What do we mean by almost? We can't get a well groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered. Sunshine? No. Some wine? Yes. Get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. Alcohol in select markets. See app for details. Oh, this is it. The day you finally ask for that big promotion.

Starting point is 00:35:56 You're in front of your mirror with your Starbucks coffee. Be confident. Assertive? Remember eye contact. But also, remember to blink. Smile. But not too much, that's weird. What if you aren't any good at your job? What if they demote you instead? Okay, don't be silly.

Starting point is 00:36:12 You're smart, you're driven, you're gonna be late if you keep talking to the mirror. This promotion is yours. Go get them. Starbucks. It's never just coffee. We are back and it is time to talk about the wide receiver position. When you're talking about the rookies, I don't know if there's, there's nobody that's been talked about more than Travis Hunter.

Starting point is 00:36:31 And we spent all this time before the draft wondering like, well, how much wide receiver is going to be? Will somebody just draft him as a cornerback? I can't control myself right now with my Travis Hunter ranking because everything went even better than I could have imagined that it would have. Not only is his team playing him almost exclusively in OTAs at wide receiver, but he also, they traded up for him and they have Trevor Lawrence and they've got a great new offensive or great, great new head coach who's proven the ability to produce two elite wide receivers in fantasy.

Starting point is 00:37:05 So I know that when people see my ranking of Travis Hunter as a top 12 dynasty wide receiver already, it seems a little bit high. So I'll just ask you, does Travis Hunter deserve to be ranked between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Lad McConkey in dynasty? For sure. I think out of all the wide receivers, and again, it sounds like I'm such a optimistic, optimistic person, but believe me, I'm not. I believe Hunter is the one of the probably the final wide receiver in redraft or best ball that you can grab that has wide receiver one fantasy value, not overall, but why receive one. So he's the final guy. So if you were to go RB, RB, RB, Jaden Daniels, and you skipped out on

Starting point is 00:37:52 drafting wide receiver did the dreaded zero wide receiver move, you could take Hunter and Debo as your top two wide receivers. And I would actually look at you and say that that's actually you skated out of that just fine. I think Hunter and you probably the question you get most he's other than, you know, what time is it is, Hey, is T law top five QB to you? If you love BT and Hunter this much, I get that question a lot too, but that doesn't necessarily have to be the case. Cause if you give 14 TDs to BT and 12 to Travis Hunter,

Starting point is 00:38:25 you're still don't have to be a top five quarterback necessarily to feed that. But I think Travis Hunter is very capable of not only being as good as BT, but having some sort of rotational thing. I don't think this is T Higgins and Jamar Chase where Hunter's the T Higgins. I think this is T Higgins and Jamar Chase were hunters that the T Higgins. I think this is two monsters and they both can't be number four on the year. I get that, but there will be years where I think Travis Hunter and BT are just like this. And it might lower BT to wide receiver six

Starting point is 00:39:00 instead of four this year. But I think Travis Hunter does crack the top 12. And I think there's a good chance that we have a year or two, like you say, that Hunter is actually better than Brian Thomas. The question that I get a lot is, well, who's going to be the Godwin in the offense? Because I think people think like one of these guys is probably going downfield more and maybe making more big plays and maybe scoring more touchdowns. And one of these guys earning more targets underneath. I kind of think it might be Hunter seeing more of those Godwin like targets and doing things after the catch. And I'm going to be pretty excited about him both for redraft and for dynasty. And again, when I say I'm putting him close to Marvin Harrison,

Starting point is 00:39:40 remember this is the guy that I'm talking to that's really excited about Marvin Harrison this year as well. So it's not like he's down on Marvin Harrison. That's why he thinks Hunter should be up there. You really like both these guys. I do want to move on to the second wide receiver question. No, really though, you know, you talked about how excited you were about the situation and all coming together. Yeah, I mean, to go up and get him and blow everybody's, you know, expectation of where Hunter is going to land to be an offensive architect like Liam Cohen, who did amazing things with Bucky bringing Baker back from the dead, Trevor Lawrence and Baker. That's a blueprint. You're just going to transfer right over. Can I revive

Starting point is 00:40:21 Trevor Lawrence? But to have somebody who's excited about Travis Hunter's wide receiver journey, you couldn't find a better coach in situation than this situation. So you, you hit it a nail in the head there by saying that it couldn't have come together better. There was no, we would have maybe been having more of that. How much wide receivers he played as soon as he landed in Jacksonville, it was, he's a wide receiver. I don't want to hear anything about it. And all the people that I sure you loved him to all off season.

Starting point is 00:40:51 I didn't care about any of that. I knew he's gonna play wide receiver enough and you could take advantage of it in best ball for a long time. And now he's going around four. He was going in 89 back when before the draft. So people cleaned up on that. It was amazing. And he was going in eight and nine back when, before the draft. So people cleaned up on that. It was amazing. And he's going to overall in some rookie drafts and I, I don't, I don't even hate it. And the second wide receiver question, we talked about your expectations for my home's bounce back this year.

Starting point is 00:41:18 I think a lot of people have questions, not just for this year, but in dynasty, particularly Rashi Rice or Xavier Worthy. I think the best we've seen from Rice has been better than the best we've seen from Worthy, but Rice has some potential legal problems he may be dealing with. Rice has a knee reconstruction that he's trying to recover from.

Starting point is 00:41:39 And like Rice, we saw Worthy, it was those last five or six games where he really just like emerged into his own role in the offense. So do you have a strong preference between Rice and Worthy who are back to back in my dynasty wide receiver rankings? I mean, I find it funny when people reference their rankings, you know, and talk about it so concretely. By the hour, I'm changing on stuff like this, but I Think the thing about rice is he had an exterior knee injury. It wasn't interior So that's a huge difference is that else LCL on the outside?

Starting point is 00:42:15 And so it's not like they had to drill into the knee and have you know Any sort of like a CL would have been a bigger thing. He already looks 100%. I believe Rice was on his way, and I felt this way before the injury, on his way to being a top five to seven wide receiver in the National Football League, at least from a fantasy perspective, you could say. And he looked amazing.

Starting point is 00:42:40 He looked absolutely amazing. He looked, it was early, he got injured early, so there wasn't a huge sample to really extrapolate, but he was on his way. And I think worthy. Yeah. He complicated things when in the final five played games, talking about two regular season games, he didn't play the last game, but his two played regular season games and his three playoff games were the first game of the three playoff games. He didn't really do anything in like 60 yards and that was it.

Starting point is 00:43:06 You extrapolate those five games divided by five, then multiplied by 17. That point total, which is, it's just fun math. It's not science, but it would rank him. I believe it was number two out of all fantasy football wide receivers on those five games alone. So it's confusing, but this is, this goes back to my Patrick Mahomes is going to the moon this year at six to seven round value in people that it's going to be the most biggest blunder in retrospect. 80 people homes.

Starting point is 00:43:35 I if I had to give give a nod, I'd say rice right by a hair. I don't think he gets suspended this year. Everything I'm hearing and you know, as I said, I go live on this stuff, whenever it happens, there's nothing. There's been not a shred of anything, you know, occurring on the rice front. I don't think, I think he gets pushed back a year. I think no one cares about it right now anyway. And so I'm taking a rice if I have to take

Starting point is 00:44:00 one over the other, but. But you like to draft both. And I think, yeah, I think that's, I was pretty encouraged by Rice in terms of the videos we were seeing and like the stuff he was doing already. There was a little blurb that came out after the chiefs took Jalen Royals late about how they think he can kind of cover for Rice as he works through his recovery and I didn't like that, but it was also just one little blurb. about how they think he can kind of cover for Rice as he works through his recovery. And I didn't like that, but it was also just one little blur, but I'm not sure that it

Starting point is 00:44:29 actually meant that Rice wouldn't be ready for the start of the season. So both of these guys, I think have more upside than where they're being drafted. Both of these guys, top 20 dynasty wide receivers for me, would not be surprised. I think whoever is the best chiefs wide receiver, the first month of the season is probably going to be a top 12 guy in dynasty rankings after that first month, because they're really held down a little bit because of concerns about the other one.

Starting point is 00:44:55 Where do you rank them? If you just had a spit ball, a number in terms of the best receiving group and you clue Kelsey, even if he's aging, whatever, or Kelsey gray as a combo, where do you rank the chief's receiving room? It would you say like top five, top seven? It's certainly better than it's been the last three years going into the year. I think with Marquis Brown there as well, and they've got some other vets in the room. I think it's gotta be top seven. Top five might be tough, but it probably also that will be dependent on if, if rice is 100% for week one and the same guy he's been and worthy carries over

Starting point is 00:45:35 that success from the second half of last year, then it might be top three. Like it's there, there's, there's, there's, I think there's, a lot of upside and downside probably for those guys because if rice comes in and averages 10 targets per game, were these probably going to take a little step back from what we saw last year and he may not be quite worth where he's being ranked. BTJ and Hunter top five wide receiver room. They've got to be. Yeah, it's crazy. and higgins and well that's why i was so i quit and i know like city lamb's incredible yeah but when pickens went to dallas a lot of people saying well does dallas have the best receiving room now i was like well there's a lot of really good receiving rooms right now up there too yes they're up there as well but i'm not i i'm not sure i'm quite as high on that group as as the others we're only going to ask one question to the tight end position because I get

Starting point is 00:46:27 really annoyed with trying to pretend like this is anything other than the haves and the have-nots and every year it seems like, Oh, the position's getting deeper now it's going to be good. In dynasty there's a, from what I've seen in the rankings, there's a pretty clear top five, especially consensus wide. It's Bowers, it's McBride, it's La Porta, it's Loveland, and it's Warren. And then if you don't have one of those guys, you're probably going with a TJ Hawkinson or just a win now guy like a Kittle or a Dave Nujoku.

Starting point is 00:46:57 Maybe you still think Mark Andrews is that. Are there any other young tight ends besides Bowers, McBride, Laporta, Loveland and Warren that you think are ever going to be must start options? So I think like to to to come to mind off the top of my head, I could be leaving out somebody in between but like likely and craft are two really nice ones. But if I could dig even deeper, you mentioned in Joku, I think Harold Fanning Jr. could be the Laporta of this draft class at the tight end position. I mean, he was almost a triple crown winner out of all the wide receivers

Starting point is 00:47:34 in tight ends. He was number one over Jeremiah Smith, Ted McMillan, Travis Hunter in receptions and yards. And he had 10 touchdowns, which puts him, I think it was 13th. He was tied for 13th, but he was almost the triple crown winner against wide receivers. So he's a talent and they drafted him in the second round. Nobody likes Harold Fanon more than me. So you are absolutely appreciate it. These guys, these guys are basically saying, so he's just brought this guy on. So he can say good things about Harold Fanon.

Starting point is 00:48:03 No, I think it's a great landing spot. People worried about a joke who he's, he's got brought this guy on so he can say good things about Harold fan. And no, I think it's a great landing spot. People worried about the joku. He's, he's got one year left on his contract. He could be gone after next year and fan and could just be the tight end one there. I love that answer. And I hope that's right because I have them on way too many dynasty teams and, and should door once once if the Browns don't screw it up and they're certainly capable of it. Once your door gets into the lineup and he's the best quarterback on the roster by far, they're gonna they're gonna build a

Starting point is 00:48:30 rapport together. That's what you love when there's a young incoming pass catcher with a young incoming rookie QB. They're gonna be practicing together you know from the beginning a rise up together. So I really think Fana jr could be the reporter for sure in this class. Um, the only other guy I can think of, you know, do we give Kyle Pitts another chance with Penix Jr? That's the question I think we ask every year, but I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, I would, I would again in dynasty right now, I would rather

Starting point is 00:49:01 have craft than Pitts for sure. Um, the other, the other name I don't, who the other name you said right now, I would rather have Kraft than Pitts for sure. The other name, I don't, who? The other name you said? It was likely, I would take Pitts over likely just because I don't think Andrews is going anywhere. And so like maybe we get likely as a standalone starter at age 26 for the first time. Well, what's nice is that Andrews is so cheap in dynasty

Starting point is 00:49:24 because he's old, you can grab them both and you kind of cover yourself nice is the Andrews is so cheap in dynasty because he's old. You can grab them both and you kind of cover yourself. So it's actually a good cuff in dynasty. Fantastic stuff today, Smitty. Really appreciate you coming on the show. Yeah, bringing all the takes, agreeing with me so often. That's always fun. That was part of the requirement, right? Tell everybody once more here at the end where they can find your show and what you got going on. Yeah, youtube.com slash the fantasy football show. If you want to, if anything, and I love to have Heath

Starting point is 00:49:53 on anytime you want to come on, if one of your favorite topics comes up, breaking news, why is this, you know, DM me or whatever. But whatever news breaks, I like to think I'm the first person live. That's kind of the mantra. Awesome, awesome stuff guys. Go check that out. We are done for now. Well thank you to Harry also for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. Definitely had some

Starting point is 00:50:16 new faces in there today and we will talk to you on Friday with the return of Jacob Gibbs.

Fantasy Football Today - Rankings Conundrums - Who's Dynasty QB1? How Many Rookies are Top 12 RBs? + more (05/27 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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